Report for Friday, November 1, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Friday, November 1, 2024

Netanyahu says Israel is aiming for ‘total victory.’

U.S. envoys in Mideast chasing waning ceasefire hopes

Zelensky says 90% of the US aid package hasn't reached Ukraine

Zelensky blasts allies for 'zero' response to North Korean deployment

State of Georgia says Russian troll farms disseminating U.S. election disinformation

China's PLA navy conducts first dual aircraft carrier formation drills in South China Sea

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

A High-level Briefing on Russia for the Next U.S. President  The Cipher Brief

The U.S. Risks Losing the Competition for ‘Innovation Power’  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Netanyahu says Israel is aiming for ‘total victory.’  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel’ is less interested in a ceasefire with Hezbollah than disabling the militant group’s ability to attack Israel.  Speaking at an Israeli Defense Forces base, Netanyahu said the country remained on war footing indefinitely.  “The main thing is our ability and our determination to enforce security, to thwart attacks against us and to act against the arming of our enemies as much as is necessary despite all the pressures and constraints,” he said.  Speaking about Israel’s three-front war – against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran – Netanyahu said, “I am not establishing a date for the end of the war, but I am establishing clear goals for victory in the war.” He said the fight against the Iran-backed proxies is guided by a “total victory concept." He said that last week’s Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iran gave Israel “greater freedom of action in Iran today than ever before. We can reach anywhere in Iran as needed.” Times of Israel 

U.S. envoys in Mideast chasing waning ceasefire hopes.   Top Biden administration negotiators visited the Middle East on Thursday for a last pre-election diplomatic push to deescalate the conflicts in Israel, Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that there had been progress toward reaching a deal in Lebanon. He said Israel had accomplished its main objectives in Gaza — dismantling Hamas’s military capacity and leadership to prevent another attack like the one on Oct. 7, 2023 — and therefore the “focus now must be on ending the war." C.I.A. director William J. Burns met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on Thursday. President Biden’s Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk, and his envoy on the Hezbollah conflict Amos Hochstein, were in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant. But progress toward cease-fires seemed unlikely in the coming days, with no one interested in compromise.  BBC NY Times  Washington Post   

Blinken, Yellen warn that Israel is setting up “looming crisis” in West Bank. The Israeli cabinet drew the ire of the Biden administration Thursday by refusing to extend for a year the authorization allowing financial transactions between Israeli banks and banks in the occupied West Bank.  Instead, Axios reported, the Israeli cabinet decided on a scant one-month extension to see who wins the U.S. elections.  Israel's finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, an  ultranationalist who favors weakening the Palestinian Authority and annexing the West Bank, was set to sign the one-month extension Thursday. Axios quoted a G7 official as saying that without reliable access to the international banking system, the West Bank would turn into a cash economy, and the resulting financial chaos would benefit terrorist organizations and further destabilize the region.  On Thursday evening, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a joint statement chiding Israel for the decision which, they said, “creates another looming crisis by November 30, exacerbating uncertainty for international banks, Israeli companies operating in the West Bank, and most importantly for ordinary Palestinians who bear the greatest brunt of such uncertainty.  Cutting off these banking ties would create significant economic turmoil in the West Bank, threatening the security of Israel and the broader region. Our deep concern is shared by the G7 and many of our closest partners.”  Axios Reuters State Department  Treasury Department 

Commentary:  The Middle East’s deadly doom loop.  Politico’s Opinion editor Jamie Dettmer Levant looks back at the region’s historical cycles of war and revenge. The weapons have changed but the cycle of attack and revenge are inevitable. Politico 

Is Iran preparing a counterstrike on Israel?  Axios reported on Thursday that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, potentially before the November 5 U.S. presidential election. The report said the attack is expected to feature many drones and ballistic missiles launched by pro-Iraq militias, possibly to avoid an Israeli counter strike directly on Iran. On Saturday, Israel launched airstrikes on targets in Iran in retaliation for Iran’s missile barrage against Israel on October 1.  Axios Reuters

Iraq tries to avoid regional conflicts.  Two decades after the U.S.-led invasion, Iraq is experiencing relative stability, with oil revenues and rebuilding underway.  Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government is trying not to get caught up in regional conflicts.  The Islamic Resistance in Iraq - a coalition of Iran-backed armed groups -persists in firing rockets and drones at Israel.  Reuters  

What’s in the MV Kathrin? Where’s it bound?  Human rights lawyers from the European Legal Support Center Wednesday filed an appeal in a Berlin court seeking to block German cargo ship MV Kathrin from delivering  a 150-metric-ton shipment of military-grade explosives to Israel's biggest defense contractor, Elbit Systems.  LSEG data and vessel-tracking website Marine Traffic showed the MV Kathrin docked in Egypt's port at Alexandria Monday.  The case argued the explosives could be used in munitions for Israel's war in Gaza. The Egyptian ministry of transport said Thursday that the ship docked in Alexandria to unload a shipment for Egypt's ministry of military production.  Because of the explosives bound for Israel, the MV Kathrin was denied entry at several African and Mediterranean ports, including in Angola, Slovenia, Montenegro and Malta, according to the ELSC. It said Portuguese authorities recently required the ship to switch from a Portuguese flag to a German flag before it could continue.  Germany said the cargo was neither loaded nor dispatched from its territory thus did not require an export license. Reuters

Israeli strikes kill 46 in Gaza, hit hospital.  Israel's military hit Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, claiming "dozens of terrorists" were hiding there. Health officials and Hamas deny the charge. Eid Sabbah, director of nursing at Kamal Adwan told Reuters some staff suffered minor burns after the Israeli strike hit the third floor of the hospital. There were no reports of any casualties at the hospital. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the Israeli military had destroyed most medical supplies at Kamal Adwan, the last functioning hospital in northern Gaza. The IDF, which said this week that it had left Kamal Adwan, said it was reviewing reports of an attack at the hospital. Israeli forces briefly occupied the hospital last week and claimed to have captured around 100 suspected Hamas militants there. Israeli tanks are still stationed nearby. At least 46 Palestinians were killed in Israeli military strikes across Gaza Thursday, local officials report.  Reuters reported that on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike on two houses in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza killed at least 16 Palestinians, including a paramedic and two local journalists.  Seven people were killed Thursday in northern Israel in a rocket attack from Lebanon, Israeli officials said, including four Thai workers. Reuters  Washington Post

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine's 2025 budget envisions defense spending of $53 billion. Ukrainian lawmakers advanced the first stage of the 2025 budget, allocating around 26% of GDP, or 2.2 trillion hryvnias ($53.38 billion), to defense to sustain efforts against Russia’s offensive. The amount is about a third of what Russia plans to spend on defense next year. Ukraine’s proposed budget is a 46-billion-hryvnia increase from this year, with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal pledging that all tax revenue will bolster military capabilities. The expected total revenue is 2.7 trillion hryvnias, with expenses at 3.6 trillion. Ukraine will also rely on $38.4 billion in foreign aid to support its budget, especially non-defense expenditures. Approval is due by Dec. 1. Reuters

Ukraine holds the key rate at 13% as inflationary pressure grows. Ukraine's central bank held its interest rate steady at 13%, aiming to curb inflation, which it now forecasts at 9.7% by year-end, up from 8.5%. Inflationary pressures persist amid rising food and energy costs, and war-related risks. Governor Andriy Pyshnyi expects the rate to hold into 2025. Reuters

Zelensky says 90% of the US aid package hasn't reached Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration that only 10% of the $61 billion U.S. aid package approved in April has reached Ukraine, delaying critical support. Zelensky emphasized that Ukrainian military planning hinged on timely aid and air defense systems, which NATO also promised but has yet to deliver fully. The recent $400 million U.S. assistance package, announced by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, includes munitions and military vehicles, though further delays persist amid U.S. political uncertainties. Business Insider Kyiv Independent 

Americans helping Ukraine’s war efforts say the US hasn’t done enough. American philanthropists and volunteers aiding Ukraine argue the U.S. has fallen short in supporting Kyiv’s fight against Russia. Philanthropist Amed Khan, who’s provided $50 million in aid, says U.S. aid constraints undermine Ukraine’s potential victory. Similarly, Howard Buffett criticized the lack of a strategy to defeat Russia, warning that Ukraine’s failure could have severe global repercussions. Volunteer fighters echo frustrations over U.S. restrictions on weapon use, feeling the approach only prolongs the war. As the U.S. presidential election nears, many hope for a renewed commitment to effectively support Ukraine’s defense and future. Associated Press

Zelensky: Ukraine is still waiting for Polish MiG-29 fighter jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine is still awaiting Poland’s transfer of Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets, which has not yet been approved. Despite an agreement with NATO, Poland has withheld the aircraft. Zelensky also expressed concerns over Poland’s reluctance to intercept Russian missiles aimed at Ukraine's border areas. Poland indicated a willingness to supply more jets if replacements were secured. On Oct. 24, Polish officials confirmed they would transfer the remaining MiG-29s to Ukraine after addressing national defense gaps. Ukrainska Pravda

Zelensky blasts allies for 'zero' response to North Korean deployment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Western allies for their "zero" response to North Korea’s deployment of 8,000 troops to aid Russia in the war. In a social media post and interview with South Korea's KBS, Zelensky warned that this lack of action emboldens Russian President Vladimir Putin. He urged allies to provide "concrete solutions" and called for enhanced cooperation, especially with South Korea, to counter the growing Russia-North Korea alliance. Zelensky stressed the global risks, citing North Korea's artillery and drone expertise as potential threats. Reuters Kyiv Independent

North Korea will back Russia until victory in Ukraine, foreign minister says. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui pledged full support for Russia until it achieves victory in Ukraine during talks in Moscow on Friday. Choe praised the "invincible military comradeship" between the two nations and claimed, without evidence, that the U.S. and South Korea are plotting a nuclear strike against North Korea. Lavrov emphasized close military ties, while neither minister addressed reports of North Korean troops aiding Russia in Ukraine's Kursk region. Reuters

Ukraine will request military assistance from South Korea. Ukraine will officially request military assistance from South Korea following North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war effort. President Volodymyr Zelensky said a representative will visit Seoul to discuss military aid, including artillery and air defense. South Korea, under President Yoon Suk-yeol, has pledged increased support if North Korea escalates its involvement. Militarnyi

As drone strikes surge, Russia's next mass missile attack on Kyiv likely imminent. Russia has intensified drone strikes on Kyiv, with October marking a record for daily Shahed-type drone attacks, though missile use has declined. Kyiv residents worry this surge in drones may be “target practice” for a larger, winter-time assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Officials speculate Moscow may await colder temperatures to maximize the impact on Ukraine’s electricity grid, increasing strain during peak winter demand. Meanwhile, Kyiv residents and businesses prepare with backup generators, and skepticism grows about Russian restraint as experts foresee potential attacks on Ukraine's nuclear and thermal plants that could lead to extensive outages and economic disruption. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–Ukraine Walks a Tightrope on the U.S. Election. As the U.S. election approaches, Ukraine’s frontline soldiers and leaders anxiously monitor its outcome, which could profoundly impact military support and territorial stability. President Kamala Harris is widely seen as the preferred candidate, offering continuity in military aid and a more predictable approach. However, a potential Donald Trump victory raises mixed expectations. While his calls for a territorial concession stir fear of weakened sovereignty, some Ukrainians hope his unpredictable nature might lead to stronger pressure on Moscow. Nonetheless, Trump’s pro-Russia rhetoric remains troubling for many, particularly as Ukraine’s forces face strain against Russia’s unrelenting offensives. While maintaining neutrality, Ukraine’s leaders hope for continued U.S. backing, mindful that a Republican-controlled Congress could complicate Harris’s support. With survival at stake, Ukraine’s leadership is preparing for possible shifts in U.S. strategy that could either support or hinder the nation’s defense and recovery. Foreign Policy The Guardian BBC

Zelensky: Ukraine will not cede territory, regardless of US election results. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s refusal to concede territory, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election or shifts in American support. Speaking to South Korean broadcaster KBS, Zelensky voiced concerns over Donald Trump’s stance, noting that pressure to cede territory is unacceptable. He reaffirmed that Ukraine’s constitution prohibits relinquishing its land, and Ukraine’s goal remains the restoration of its borders. Ukrainska Pravda

US says 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk. The U.S. told the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that 8,000 North Korean troops are stationed in Russia’s Kursk region. Western allies, including the U.S., Britain, and South Korea, argue that Russia’s move breaches UN resolutions and international sanctions on North Korea. Tensions rose as the U.S. criticized China for aiding Russia’s defense industry, while China denied supplying weapons. Reuters

Blinken expects North Korean troops to enter the fight against Ukraine in coming days. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that 10,000 North Korean troops, including 8,000 stationed in Russia's Kursk region, are expected to join the fighting in Ukraine soon. He urged China to curb Pyongyang's actions, noting that closer cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a destabilizing factor in Asia. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed confidence that Ukraine can hold territory in Kursk and announced forthcoming U.S. aid. The U.S. and South Korea condemned North Korea’s recent ICBM test. Reuters

Who are the North Korean generals Ukraine says are in Russia? Ukraine has named three North Korean generals it says are stationed in Russia to support Moscow’s war effort. Colonel General Kim Yong Bok, a top advisor to Kim Jong Un and head of the elite Storm Corps, leads the contingent. Joining him are Colonel General Ri Chang Ho, head of North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, and Major General Sin Kum Cheol. Ukraine claims at least 500 North Korean officers are directing units of 2,000-3,000 soldiers. Reuters The Telegraph

Ukraine’s decentralized warfare: the battle of the common person.Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion has demonstrated a new model of decentralized warfare, involving civilians directly through accessible technology like drones, cyberattacks, and influence operations. Civilian volunteers play a crucial role, particularly in Ukraine’s “IT Army” and with groups like NAFO, countering Russian disinformation through humor and organized cyber offensives. The IT Army, a volunteer hacker collective, has carried out cyberattacks that disrupted Russian financial systems, while NAFO uses online memes to challenge Russian narratives. Ukraine’s crowdfunded drone operations bolster its defenses as volunteers source critical tech supplies. This democratization of warfare signals a shift toward grassroots military strategies, where citizens can engage in cyber and physical defenses. Ukraine’s experience offers lessons for future conflicts, underscoring the power of technology and public involvement. Asia Times

Ukraine rolls out dozens of AI systems to help its drones hit targets. Ukraine has introduced AI-augmented systems for drones to counteract Russian electronic warfare, enhancing strike accuracy and target acquisition without pilot control. These AI-driven drones, capable of navigating areas with strong signal jamming, have targeted high-value assets like tanks and logistics sites. Ukraine’s defense ministry reports that several dozen domestic AI solutions are used. Ukrainian company NORDA Dynamics has sold 15,000 units of automated targeting software, advancing Ukraine’s aim to scale drone capabilities in warfare. Experts predict automation will shape the war’s next phase as both sides innovate. Reuters

Ukrainian drone strikes Russian oil refinery 1,500 kilometers from border, Russian official claims. A Ukrainian drone allegedly struck Thursday an oil refinery in Ufa in Russia's Bashkortostan Republic, about 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, causing minimal damage. This marks the second reported Ukrainian drone strike in the region since May. Ukraine has intensified long-range drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure as part of a broader effort to weaken Russia’s oil-driven economy, which sustains its military operations despite Western sanctions. Kyiv Independent

Russian air defense systems intercept 10 Ukrainian drones, Russian ministry says. Russian air defenses intercepted 10 Ukrainian drones across four regions in one hour on Thursday evening, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. Five drones were downed in Kursk, three in Bryansk, one in Oryol, and one over Crimea. No damage or injuries were recorded. Reuters

Thousands of passenger flight signals jammed over war zones in Ukraine and Middle East. Researchers report daily disruptions to passenger aircraft navigation systems near conflict zones, notably Ukraine and the Middle East, due to GPS blocking and spoofing. These tactics, often employed to interfere with drones or missiles, inadvertently affect commercial flights, causing safety concerns. Zurich University’s Raphael Monstein highlights risks, including cockpit confusion and reduced safety margins. Affected areas also include civilian zones, as Finnair suspends flights in Estonia near Russia. GPS interference has increased since 2022, with Moscow denying intentional disruptions to commercial aircraft despite linked disruptions impacting Moscow residents’ smartphone apps. Voice of America

Russia's struggle to kick the Ukrainians out is likely only going to get tougher.  Russia’s efforts to reclaim Kursk territory from Ukrainian forces are proving challenging, with analysts predicting increasing difficulties. Ukraine initially seized around 500 square miles in the region, giving it a strategic edge by selectively defending advantageous positions. Russia has recaptured areas that are easier to control, but Ukrainian troops continue to strategically withdraw from open and harder-to-defend terrain, allowing them to dig in elsewhere. Warfare experts argue that Russia's delayed and scattered response hindered its efforts, providing Ukraine with time to bolster its defenses. While Kursk holds some bargaining power for Ukraine, fully defending it may not be a priority. Business Insider

As Russia Advances in the Donbas, Ukraine Faces a New Surge of Displacement. In Kramatorsk, a pastor oversees a church-turned-refugee center, sheltering those fleeing intensified Russian offensives in Ukraine's Donbas. Residents recount harrowing escapes amid relentless bombings. Meanwhile, one evacuation worker reports increased danger from Russian drone attacks, making rescue missions perilous. Many refugees seek stability in Kyiv, hoping to escape the front’s proximity. Support for displaced families remains scarce, with limited funds and rising needs straining aid organizations. Moscow Times

Russia Speeds Up Advance in Ukraine as Mood Darkens in Kyiv. Russia's recent gains in eastern Ukraine, seizing over 200 square kilometers, mark its most territory captured this year, escalating pressure on Kyiv and Western allies. As Russia advances towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs, Ukraine faces challenges in manpower, with over 1 million already drafted. Despite Russia’s artillery advantage and troop reinforcements, analysts note the war remains attritional, with neither side positioned for a decisive breakthrough. Bloomberg

Russian-held town in eastern Ukraine equips buses with drone jammers. Authorities in Russian-controlled Horlivka, eastern Ukraine, have equipped buses with drone jammers after a Ukrainian drone attack injured three people this month. The jammers, which disrupt drone communications, aim to enhance security amid frequent shelling and drone strikes near Donetsk, a frontline city under Russian control since 2014. Reuters

Russia carried out at least 36 double-tap strikes in Ukraine, killing over 100 people since 2022. Russia has conducted at least 36 verified double-tap strikes in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion in 2022, killing over 100 people, according to Truth Hounds, a Ukrainian organization investigating war crimes. These strikes, designed to target first responders after an initial attack, have intensified in 2024. Truth Hounds, collaborating with Syria’s White Helmets, links Russia’s tactic in Ukraine to its prior use in Syria. The report urges further investigation, sanctions, and support for affected Ukrainian and Syrian first responders. Kyiv Independent

Death toll rises to three in Russian strike on high-rise residence in Ukraine's Kharkiv. The death toll from Wednesday evening’s Russian-guided bomb strike on a Kharkiv high-rise has risen to three, including two children aged 12 and 15, with 36 others injured. The blast caused extensive fire damage, and rescue operations concluded Thursday. Additional strikes on Kharkiv’s outskirts hit a business site, with three more injured. President Zelensky reiterated calls for enhanced Western military support. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 24 over past day.  Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed two people and injured 24, authorities reported on Friday. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 31 of 48 drones, though drone debris damaged buildings in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Odesa. Missile strikes injured two first responders in Odesa and killed a 75-year-old man in Kupiansk, Kharkiv. Russian shelling targeted multiple regions, with significant injuries reported across Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts. Kyiv Independent

Finland Charges Russian Nationalist Fighter With War Crimes Allegedly Committed in Ukraine. Finnish prosecutors have charged Russian national Yan Petrovsky, also known as Voislav Torden, with war crimes allegedly committed in Ukraine’s Luhansk region in 2014. As deputy commander of the Rusich paramilitary unit, Petrovsky is accused of killing 22 Ukrainian soldiers. Detained in Finland in 2023, Petrovsky had evaded a European Union-wide ban using a false identity. Finland’s Supreme Court barred his extradition to Ukraine over prison conditions. This is Finland’s first war crimes prosecution related to Ukraine, reflecting its commitment to universal jurisdiction in prosecuting international crimes. Moscow Times ABC News Reuters

Europe Gas Buyers Near Azeri Deal to Maintain Ukraine Flows.  European gas buyers are close to finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to maintain gas flows through Ukraine after the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement expires this year. Hungary and Slovakia aim to import 12-14 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas annually using existing pipelines. News of the agreement lowered December gas prices by 1.9% after recent volatility. The deal, involving a swap arrangement between Azerbaijan and Russia, would stabilize supplies, reduce reliance on Russian gas, and help curb European energy prices. Bloomberg

Hungary to keep Druzhba as main crude pipeline, foreign minister says. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto confirmed that Hungary will continue using the Druzhba pipeline as its main crude oil import route. Despite European Union calls for diversification, Hungary relies on Russian energy, receiving 3.9 million metric tons of crude through Druzhba this year. Tests on the Adriatic pipeline showed capacity limitations. Hungary has also imported 6.2 billion cubic meters of Russian gas and is progressing with Rosatom on a nuclear plant project. Reuters

Russia says it is unhappy with Turkish arms supplies to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed dissatisfaction with Turkey’s continued arms supplies to Ukraine, noting that Turkish weapons are used against Russian forces and civilians. Lavrov told Hurriyet newspaper that Turkey’s actions contradict its role as a mediator, adding that Moscow finds this situation “surprising” given Ankara's statements supporting mediation efforts. Reuters

Germany and the UK will give Ukraine Sea King helicopters armed with missiles. The UK and Germany will provide Ukraine with Sea King helicopters equipped with modern missile systems to enhance its offensive capabilities. The aid package, expected soon, will also boost the UK's support for an armored vehicle coalition and Germany's support for a drone coalition. Helicopter quantities were not disclosed. NV

Trudeau says global impact of Ukraine war is worsening with time.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that the global impact of Russia's war on Ukraine worsens as it continues, citing increased food insecurity, disinformation, and threats to international law. At a Montreal conference, delegates pledged to press Russia to return Ukrainian children and prisoners, with Qatar, South Africa, and the Vatican offering mediation. Trudeau condemned Moscow’s actions, aligning with Kyiv’s claim that around 20,000 children were forcibly taken to Russia, an act Ukraine calls genocide. Reuters

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Oct. 31. North Korea and Russia signed an agreement on Wednesday to enhance cooperation in digital communications, likely to bolster Russia’s digital control tools for internal repression. South Korea plans to deploy personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops’ involvement in the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin remains firmly opposed to a ceasefire, maintaining his goal of dismantling Ukrainian statehood. Ukraine continues to receive long-term military aid commitments from Western allies, including recent pledges from the UK, Norway, and Lithuania. Russia persists in deploying wounded soldiers in high-casualty assaults in Ukraine’s Kurakhove sector. Moldova’s Constitutional Court confirmed the European Union’s referendum’s passing with a 50.72% voter turnout.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces regained lost positions near Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Putin’s North Korean escalation is a direct result of Western weakness. Peter Dickinson argues Western hesitance has emboldened Russia’s escalating aggression in Ukraine, including North Korea’s involvement. While North Korean troops join Russia’s invasion, Western responses lack serious deterrents. This cautious approach, focused on avoiding escalation, has enabled Putin to push boundaries without consequence. Dickinson suggests that restraint could transform the conflict into a larger war, as Moscow and Pyongyang perceive limited Western resistance to their action. Atlantic Council

Opinion: Why Europe should consider boots on the ground in Ukraine. Viktoriia Lapa argues that European Union troops in Ukraine could pressure Russia and secure peace by acting as an interim security guarantee. Lapa critiques the EU’s reactive approach, which she claims has emboldened Russia, citing the bloc’s struggle to deliver promised ammunition. Deployment could strengthen Ukraine’s stance until NATO membership. Without firm action, Lapa warns of a weakened, divided Ukraine and emboldened authoritarian powers worldwide.  Asia Times

AMERICAS

State of Georgia says Russian troll farms disseminating U.S. election disinformation. The office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said on Thursday that targeted disinformation circulating online ahead of the fast-approaching U.S. election likely stems from foreign interference, possibly from "Russian troll farms" that are aiming to create discord. Raffensperger addressed a specific video that made the rounds on social media, in which an alleged Haitian immigrant falsely claimed that he voted multiple times in Georgia.  The office urged social media platforms, including Elon Musk's X, to remove the content, and said that the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is investigating the disinformation. This development comes as polls show a close race in Georgia, a battleground state, between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.  CNN​​Reuters The Straits Times

Mexico's Sheinbaum set to take first trip abroad, to attend G20 summit in Brazil. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she will attend the G20 summit in Brazil on November 18-19, marking her first international trip since taking office. This is a departure from the approach of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who rarely traveled. Sheinbaum confirmed her decision at a recent press conference, stating she would return to Mexico on November 19. Reuters 

Mexico's volatile Sinaloa state forced to ban Halloween costumes amid cartel bloodshed.  Authorities in Mexico’s turbulent northwestern state of Sinaloa prohibited Halloween costumes and masks on October 31 to prevent people from being mistaken for criminals amid escalating cartel violence. Following the July arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, bloody infighting has intensified, leaving hundreds dead or missing. Sinaloa’s security secretary also urged residents to avoid carrying plastic weapons and to stay indoors at night. These measures aim to discourage the glorification of crime and to protect civilians from being mistaken for gang members. Similar restrictions have been enacted in other Mexican states with high crime rates in recent years, such as Baja California and Sonora. Reuters Forbes Mexico The Guardian   

EUROPE

Washington’s European allies must confront challenges, regardless of who wins the presidential election.European allies of the U.S. are preparing for a shift in America's focus away from Europe, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. If GOP nominee Donald Trump wins, Europe fears a reduction in support for Ukraine, potential NATO withdrawal threats, and increased tariffs, all of which raise concerns over stability. If Vice President Kamala Harris secures a victory for Democrats, continuity in policy is expected. However, there’s mounting concern about growing U.S. public war fatigue and the increasing focus on Asia. European leaders acknowledge they must strengthen their own defense as the U.S. pivots to the Indo-Pacific, and experts suggest that Washington will not shift course when it comes to its long-term priority, China. NATO allies, including Germany, have boosted defense spending since the Ukraine war began in anticipation of future changes in the White House, but Europe still fears it cannot fully replace U.S. support if it wanes. The trans-Atlantic relationship faces uncertainty, and Europe anticipates a potentially turbulent and less predictable America in the coming years. As German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, “I hope that Europeans remember: America is indispensable for us . . . I also hope that Americans remember: Your allies are indispensable for you. We are more than just ‘other countries’ in the world —we are partners, we are friends.” Associated Press

Polling firm Edison reports Georgia’s election results indicate “manipulation.”Edison Research, an American polling firm, claimed on Friday that discrepancies between its exit poll and the official results of Georgia’s parliamentary election indicate possible vote manipulation. Official results showed the ruling Georgian Dream party, founded and controlled by pro-Russia billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, winning 54% of the vote. Opposition parties, claiming fraud, have planned protests. They cite two U.S. exit polls showing Georgian Dream below 45% as evidence that the election was not just. Edison also noted that deviations were especially high in rural areas. Another U.S. pollster, HarrisX, deemed the official results "statistically impossible." Although observer groups, including the OSCE, reported issues like ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation, they stopped short of calling the election stolen. Western countries have demanded an investigation, while Russia has accused them of interference. Reuters

Berlin orders closure of all 3 Iranian Consulates in Germany, in retaliation for execution of German-Iranian. Berlin on Thursday announced the closure of three Iranian consulates in Germany, located in Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Munich, in response to Iran's execution of German-Iranian dual national Jamshid Sharmahd. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said her country “repeatedly and unequivocally” warned Tehran that such actions would have serious consequences. Germany is seeking E.U. sanctions against those involved in the execution, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Baerbock condemned Iran's actions as politically motivated, accusing the nation of using Germany's support for Israel as a pretext and adding that it “is not without reason that our diplomatic relations are already at an all-time low." Berlin’s ambassador to Iran was recalled, and 32 consulate employees in Germany without citizenship must leave. Tehran protested the closures, calling the decision "irrational." Sharmahd, who had lived in California, was accused of terrorism, but both Germany and his family rejected the charges and denounced the trial as unfair. Deutsche Welle New York Times Euronews Associated Press Reuters

MIDDLE EAST

The Taliban claims at least 2 Afghans were killed earlier this month by blasts, gunfire in Iran.  Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities on Friday said that explosions and gunfire in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province killed at least two Afghans earlier this month. Tehran has denied that any violence occurred in the region near Saravan, which borders Afghanistan. A Taliban investigation confirmed attacks on Afghans in Iran’s Kalgan Valley, but did not identify the perpetrators. Taliban officials have also recovered two bodies, and transported 34 eyewitnesses, some injured, with others reportedly still in Iran and Pakistan. Advocacy group HalVash claims the death toll is higher, alleging that Iranian forces used firearms and RPGs in the assaults. Tensions have risen in the region as anti-Afghan sentiment and migrant deportation threats escalate in Iran, where 3.8 million Afghans currently reside. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China's PLA navy conducts first dual aircraft carrier formation drills in South China Sea.China's two active aircraft carriers, the CV-16 Liaoning and CV-17 Shandong, recently conducted their first joint exercises in the South China Sea, showcasing a significant combined combat force, as reported by state media. The drills, also called “dual carrier op” or “photo op,” involved multiple J-15 fighter jets and supporting warships with advanced air defense, anti-submarine, and anti-ship capabilities. This "dual carrier formation" provides a substantial boost in combat effectiveness. Chinese officials stated that these exercises were routine and aimed at enhancing combat readiness, not directly responding to recent U.S. and European warships passing through the Taiwan Strait. During the drills, the formation sailed to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea, before returning home. Recent satellite images showed the carriers docked at a Hainan Island base with other naval vessels. The Liaoning was also spotted near Taiwan, where it participated in drills that were what the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command called “stern deterrence” against Taiwanese independence forces. South China Morning Post Reuters Naval News USNI News 

Vietnam demands China release detained fishermen in disputed South China Sea. Vietnam on Thursday protested China's alleged detention of Vietnamese fishermen and fishing vessels near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, urging their immediate release. The Vietnamese foreign ministry did not specify how many had been held, or when. In response, China's foreign ministry called on Hanoi to better "educate and manage" its fishermen to stay out of waters claimed by China. Reuters 

U.S. denounces sentencing of married Chinese human rights advocates. The U.S. on Friday condemned the sentencing of Chinese human rights lawyer Yu Wensheng and his wife, Xu Yan, who received prison terms of three years and one year and nine months, respectively, for "inciting subversion of state power." The couple were arrested in April 2023 while on their way to meet E.U. officials, and their trial was closed to foreign diplomats. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said their sentences show China’s “continuing efforts” to suppress those “who speak out for human rights and the rule of law." The E.U., France, and Germany have also called for their release. Yu, who was previously imprisoned for advocating political reforms, has been recognized internationally for his human rights work, and received awards in 2018 and 2021. His wife claims he has suffered not only ill health but also torture while in detention. Chinese authorities have rejected accusations of torture. Reuters U.S. Department of State 

India and China close to finishing troop withdrawal along disputed border.Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said Thursday that New Delhi and Beijing have mostly withdrawn frontline troops from their disputed Himalayan border in Ladakh following a recent agreement aimed at ending a contentious, four-year standoff. Singh announced that the disengagement near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is “almost complete,” and a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed that the soldiers were “making progress in implementing the resolutions in an orderly manner.” This development comes after tensions erupted in the wake of a 2020 clash that saw the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. The new pact, formalized on October 21, resolves two remaining standoff points, though the full restoration of pre-2020 positions will take time. Both nations seek to rebuild trust, though challenges remain in re-establishing patrols and buffer zones. Business ties were also impacted by the situation, with India restricting Chinese investments. Associated Press 

North Korea claims record test of ICBM was the new Hwasong-19; experts say it’s too big to use in war. North Korea on Thursday tested its new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-19, which successfully reached unprecedented altitudes, and could potentially strike anywhere in the United States. Lauded by state media as "the world's strongest strategic missile," the launch, monitored by South Korea and Japan, has drawn international condemnation and raised concerns over the nation’s missile capabilities. The missile’s solid-fuel technology offers advantages in mobility and stealth, and it’s likely designed to carry heavier or multiple nuclear warheads. It flew for nearly 86 minutes, reaching an altitude of 7,687.5 km before splashing down in the sea. However, analysts say that Pyongyang’s claim of possessing "the world's strongest strategic missile," is propaganda, pure and simple. One expert at South Korea’s Korea Institute for Defense Analyses argued that the massive ICBM, which is 28 meters long, and its launch vehicle will weigh down the weapon’s wartime mobility, as well as its survivability; another expert said the oversized Hwasong-19 would quickly become “a target of a preemptive attack by opponents.” These foreign analysts also believe that North Korea has quite a few challenges to overcome before it is ready to strike anywhere in the U.S. Reuters Associated Press

AFRICA

Botswana's governing party concedes election defeat, ending nearly six decades of power.  Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi acknowledged defeat on Friday after his ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), lost its parliamentary majority in a historic election upset, ending 58-years of power. Preliminary results showed the opposition coalition, Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), led by Duma Boko, taking a significant lead. Socio-economic issues, especially among young people, fueled BDP's downfall amid economic challenges from a global diamond market slump and 28% unemployment. UDC secured 26 of 41 parliamentary seats counted, while the BDP won only three. The outcome reflects a broader regional trend of long-ruling parties losing dominance in Africa, as seen in recent elections in South Africa, with neighboring Namibia also facing a similar challenge soon. BBC Reuters Deutsche Welle 

Mpox cases in Africa show 500% rise year-on-year.Data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) reveals that mpox cases in Africa have surged over 500% from last year, with over 48,000 suspected cases and 1,048 deaths reported across 19 countries. Most of these cases have been seen in Central Africa, which accounts for the majority deaths. The World Health Organization declared mpox a global health emergency in August after a new strain, clade Ib, began spreading from the Democratic Republic of Congo to other countries. It has also been detected in Europe, including in Sweden, Britain, and Germany. Africa CDC has emphasized the need for political and financial support to control the outbreak and warned that the virus could become a sexually transmitted pandemic. Reuters BBC

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Italy’s hacking scandal explodes as leaked files implicate both the Vatican and Israel.  A major hacking scandal in Italy involving the Milan-based firm Equalize now threatens to involve Israel, the Vatican, the U.K., and Lithuania. Police wiretaps suggest that Equalize, led by the 44-year-old IT consultant Nunzio Samuele Calamucci, hacked data on thousands of politicians, business figures, and more, allegedly on behalf of Israeli intelligence and the Vatican. Fresh claims have been made suggesting that they were seeking to acquire clandestine information about financial activity, police investigations, and private bank transactions. The firm is also accused of carrying out cyber operations against Russian targets, such as President Vladimir Putin's unidentified "right-hand man.” The firm also purportedly tracked financial links to the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Italian politicians expressed alarm over the developments; Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has announced a task force to protect Italian interests. Equalize allegedly used less vulnerable servers in the U.S. and Lithuania, and Italian prosecutors have seized a server in Lithuania, with potential U.K. inquiries pending. Four suspects, including Calamucci, are under house arrest, but have refused to provide statements.  Politico

Boeing increases pay offer, workers to vote Monday to end strike. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), the union representing striking Boeing workers, said that members will vote Monday on a new contract offer that includes a 38% wage increase over four years (43% compounded), which is slightly higher than a recent, rejected proposal. Boeing is also offering a $12,000 signing bonus, up from $7,000, and increased 401(k) contributions. The 7-week-old strike, which started on September 13, involves around 33,000 union members and has halted production of most Boeing jets. Workers are demanding pensions in addition to higher wages, but the planemaker remains firm on not reinstating traditional pensions. The last major Boeing strike was in 2008, and lasted eight weeks. Associated Press BBC Reuters Al Jazeera

Boeing may get back on its feet after Starliner episode, but it can’t afford any more mistakes.  Boeing is still recovering from a recent, embarrassing incident in which technical issues with its Starliner spacecraft, including engine malfunctions and a helium leak, prompted a rescue mission by SpaceX, which launched its Crew Dragon spacecraft to bring back a pair of astronauts stranded on the ISS. Boeing’s Starliner program, a part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, has faced ongoing challenges. This stands in stark contrast to SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, which has consistently performed well despite receiving a lower contract value from NASA. Boeing’s reputation has been marred by past safety issues, such as the 737 Max crashes, prompting a shift toward stronger safety practices. Although NASA values having multiple suppliers for astronaut transport, it is increasingly relying on SpaceX. Boeing’s struggles with Starliner, alongside rising competition from companies like Sierra Space, underscore the evolving space sector landscape. NASA’s future plans, including the Artemis lunar program and the Gateway lunar space station, may eventually involve more commercial partners, but Boeing will need to regain trust and demonstrate reliability to remain competitive in this new era of space exploration. Space.com 

Chinese researchers employed Meta's publicly available Llama to develop AI model for military use.Academic documents and analysts show that Chinese research institutions tied to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) have adapted Meta's earlier Llama 2 13B large language model (LLM) to create an AI tool, "ChatBIT," aimed at military applications such as intelligence analysis, decision-making, and possibly strategic planning. Meta’s terms prohibit military use, but the open-source nature of Llama limits Meta’s control over its applications. Meta's director of public policy said that any use of its models by China’s PLA is “unauthorized and contrary” to its acceptable use policy." Beijing’s adaptation of ChatBIT is reportedly part of China's broader goal to lead in AI by 2030, with research labs and collaborations with Western AI scientists advancing their capabilities. U.S. concerns grow over open AI models contributing to foreign defense technologies, prompting President Biden to seek stronger AI regulations and investment restrictions in China. Reuters

White House nearly finished with second cybersecurity executive order.The White House is nearing completion of a new cybersecurity executive order with a focus on sectors like artificial intelligence (AI), secure software, cloud security, identity verification, and post-quantum cryptography. This follow-up to President Biden's initial cybersecurity order is nearly finalized, and is expected to be signed by early December, pending review. The draft prioritizes AI’s role in cybersecurity, including pilot programs to accelerate defense AI models. It also expands on secure software transparency by publicly listing software that meets federal standards, inspired by incidents like the SolarWinds breach and Microsoft cloud vulnerabilities. Additional sections address cloud standards updates, federal identity security, and post-quantum cryptography based on recent NIST standards. Experts highlight the need for continuity and funding to ensure the effectiveness of any mandates, given the evolving threat landscape and AI's potential for both defense and offensive cybersecurity applications. Cyberscoop 

FBI accuses Iranian cyber group of targeting Paris Olympics with attack on French display provider. The prominent Iranian cyber group Emennet Pasargad, which has been linked to past election interference, has now been accused by the FBI and other agencies of carrying out cyberattacks against the 2024 Summer Olympics, and denouncing Israeli athletes. The group, using the front company Aria Sepehr Ayandehsazan (ASA), hacked a French display provider to spread anti-Israel messages, and employed AI tools to enhance their operations, including fake news creation. They previously targeted Sweden, the U.S., and Israel, allegedly hacking IP cameras, targeting Israeli military personnel, and contacting families of hostages held by Hamas. The FBI continues to monitor Emennet Pasargad’s evolving tactics, which include misinformation and cyber intrusions in Western countries. The Record 

Space Force head says U.S. worried by China’s ‘mind-boggling’ space capabilities.  U.S. Space Force Chief General B. Chance Saltzman stated that China's rapid expansion of space-based military systems, particularly counterspace capabilities targeting satellites, is of greater concern for Washington than potential Russian space nuclear weapons. Saltzman noted that "hundreds” of Chinese satellites could support Earth missions, while Russia also presents a significant, though smaller, counterspace threat. Both nations are advancing space initiatives, including a lunar station project in partnership with other countries, such as Egypt, South Africa, and Pakistan, as a rival to the U.S.-led Artemis program. The U.S. Space Force, with a $29 billion budget (NASA has $27.2 billion) is working to defend satellites and deter adversarial space activities. European allies are also forming smaller-scale space commands to strengthen Western space defense, coordinated through initiatives like the Combined Space Operations (CSpO) with allies such as the U.K., France, and Japan. Politico

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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