Friday, May 19, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Group of Seven Leaders’ Summit Kicks Off With Eyes on China, Russia. Group of Seven (G7) leaders are meeting in Hiroshima, Japan for a summit that is set to focus on China and Russia. In an initial joint statement, the G7 leaders have said they are implementing new sanctions on Russia to block its access to “industrial machinery, tools and other technology” that it can use towards its invasion of Ukraine. Other sanctions measures are set to be discussed throughout the summit; a top White House official told reporters that the US will present its own set of sanctions against 70 companies across the world deemed to have helped Russia circumvent measures like banking restrictions, as well as moves that will target Russia’s “future energy and extractive technical capabilities.” Regarding China, a draft communique currently calls China an increasing threat to economic security and that G7 powers must “reduce excessive dependencies” on trade with China in critical areas and counter “malign practices” in technology and data transfers. The draft also reaffirms the need for peace in the Taiwan Strait and an end to the Ukraine war. CNN Deutsche Welle Reuters South China Morning Post
US Says Won’t Block European Allies from Sending F16s to Ukraine. The Biden administration has signaled that it will not block efforts by European allies to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Several European countries, including the Netherlands, have expressed willingness to fulfill Ukraine’s long-held request for fighter jets. The US would have to approve such third-party transfers because the F-16s have sensitive US technology. So far, US officials say they have yet to receive any formal requests by allies to approve such transfers, and National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby says F-16s are “not on the agenda” at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Japan. There are also ongoing discussions on options for the US, its allies or the aircraft’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16s. CNN
Suspected Discord Leaker Warned Several Times Over Handling of Sensitive Information. US prosecutors claim that 21-year-old U.S. Airman Jack Teixeira was warned at least two separate times in 2022 about his handling of clandestine information and classified documents before allegedly leaking secrets to Discord. Prosecutors accused him of having a "wilful disregard" for the protection of sensitive intelligence, citing different occasions in which Teixeira was allegedly observed putting classified notes into his pocket, "potentially ignoring a cease-and-desist order on deep diving into intelligence," and reading intel that had nothing to do with his job despite warnings from his superiors. Prosecutors added that Teixeira boasted to people on the Internet about his actions. On Friday, a judge will hear arguments as to whether he should be released on bail or remain detained until his trial. Teixeira, who has not yet entered a plea, could face up to 25 years in prison if convicted. BBC NBC
U.S. Air Force Will Award Contract for Sixth-Generation Jet in 2024. The US Air Force said on Thursday that it plans to award a contract to develop a sixth generation fighter jet in 2024 as it competes with China in the race for technological advancements in the military. Officials say the Next Generation Air Dominance program will develop a fighter jet able to battle in cooperation with drones. The Air Force intends to spend at least $2.3 billion on the novel program in 2024, and $595 million on engine developments. Tech giants Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed will compete for the contract. Reuters
Pentagon Overvalues Military Aid for Ukraine by $3 Billion. The Pentagon has reportedly overvalued the amount of military aid it has sent to Ukraine by up to $3 billion, according to a Senate aide and defense officials. The error appears to have been caused by the overvaluing of military equipment pulled from US stockpiles. The officials say the Pentagon’s accounting records listed the current replacement value of the weapons rather than the depreciated value from when they were purchased. A memo was reportedly circulated among the services on March 31 clarifying correct accounting procedures to avoid this problem again. The overvaluing of aid sent to Ukraine may allow the Biden administration to deliver more military equipment and weapons to Kyiv without needing to ask Congress for additional funding to do so. New York Times Reuters
US and Taiwan Reach Agreement on New Trade Pact in Boost to Economic Ties. The U.S. Trade Representative's office claimed on Thursday that Taiwan and the United States have agreed on the first part of a "21st Century" trade initiative that encompasses small business, regulatory practices, and customs and border procedures. Later, negotiations will begin on complex issues such as labor and environmental standards, agriculture, state-owned enterprises, non-market policies, and the world of digital trade. This agreement, coming at a period of high global tensions, emphasizes the deepening ties between Washington and Taipei, opens Taiwan up to U.S. exports, and gives the country more independence from the possibility of Chinese economic constraint. Reuters CNN
US Supreme Court Dismisses Push to Reinstate Title 42 Border Restrictions. The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday dismissed a Republican-backed case to restore the Covid-19 Title 42 policy installed by Donald Trump in 2020 that strengthened border restrictions and allowed authorities to swiftly oust immigrants at the US-Mexican border. The court argued that because the health emergency has ended, the policy to expel migrants in the name of public safety must cease. Title 42 expired last week under the Biden administration, and new asylum regulations have been instituted. Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch claimed it was wrong "to prolong an emergency decree designed for one crisis in order to address an entirely different one." Reuters
Ecuador Court Says Elections Can Be Held August 20. The Constitutional Court of Ecuador cleared the way for early presidential and legislative elections after blocking the efforts of opposition politicians to stop President Guillermo Lasso from dissolving the National Assembly. In the face of threats of impeachment, Lasso invoked a provision allowing him to rule by decree until early elections in six months. The elections will take place on August 20th. Reuters
Western Europe
UK Planning Billion Dollar Semiconductor Investment. The UK is planning to invest 1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) into its semiconductor industry over the next decade. The investment will initially focus on supporting semiconductor design. Many in the industry say the move is too modest to make any difference; the plan is dwarfed by US chip subsidies of $52.7 billion and EU chip investment proposals reaching 43 billion euros ($47 billion). Britain has long been criticized for not properly supporting its chip industry; critics cite the UK’s lack of an end-to-end supply chain for semiconductors and the 2016 sale of Britain’s smartphone processor company Arm to Japan’s SoftBank as examples of failings. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine’s Zelensky to Attend G7 Summit in Japan, Participates in Arab League Summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Hiroshima, Japan this weekend. He is expected to seek further pledges of military support and aid from G7 countries and others at the meeting to counter Russia’s invasion. It is still somewhat unclear if he will attend in person or online, as Ukrainian officials have said both. Zelensky is participating in the G7 summit after stopping in Saudi Arabia to attend the Arab League summit. Zelensky said his surprise visit to Saudi Arabia aimed to “enhance bilateral relations and Ukraine’s ties” with Arab states, which have largely remained neutral in the Ukraine war given their close ties with Moscow. Deutsche Welle New York Times Washington Post
Russian Forces Retreating Around Bakhmut, Ukraine and Wagner Group Report. Ukrainian forces have reportedly made significant advances in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian military officials report gains in some areas of over a mile. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar added that Ukraine is in control of the “southwestern” portion of the city after Russian withdrawals. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, appeared to confirm the Ukrainian progress by reporting that some Russian troops have withdrawn from areas in and around Bakhmut. He maintained that Wagner forces are still advancing and will continue to fight for control of the city, but said the retreat of Russian forces from the north and south of the city has left his mercenaries “vulnerable” to being encircled. The reported progress from Ukraine comes ahead of an expected counteroffensive and comes as Russia continues missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Al Jazeera Kyiv Independent Reuters
US Says Damaged Patriot System in Kyiv Repaired. The US reports that a damaged Patriot missile system in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv has been fixed. Russia claimed to have hit the Patriot system during a missile barrage on Kyiv on Tuesday. US officials now appear to have confirmed that claim but have added that the damage was minimal; they say the system “was never offline” and that its most critical component, its radar set, was not damaged. They added that the damage has been repaired with “some assistance” from the US. Ukraine remained steadfast in its rejection of Russian claims that a missile had fully destroyed the Patriot system. Ukraine currently has two Patriot defense systems — one given by the US and another jointly provided by Germany and the Netherlands — though it is unclear which unit was damaged in the Russian missile attack. Washington Post
Crimea Explosion Derails Russian Train. Amid continued Russian missile barrages across Ukraine, an explosion derailed a Russian freight train in Crimea on Thursday. Russia’s railway operator said “unauthorized persons” caused the derailment, suggesting an act of sabotage that points to Ukraine’s reach deep within Russian-occupied territory. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the derailment, though it rarely confirms or denies such actions. The derailment follows similar attacks on Russian supply lines, infrastructure sites, fuel depots and ammunition stores which experts say are aimed at weakening the Russian military ahead of a planned Ukrainian offensive. New York Times
China Offers Major Central Asia Development, Security Support. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday unveiled a grand plan for development in Central Asia at the first ever China-Central Asia summit. The plan presents China-coordinated development and modernization strategies aimed at building infrastructure, boosting trade and improving security in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Xi added that China will additionally offer 26 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) in financing support and “free assistance” to the countries. The move offers China stronger access to the five former Soviet republics, which control key energy assets and critical trade corridors. The Chinese pledges to support Central Asia contrast the “negative” view of Beijing at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Japan and underscore Beijing’s rising influence in the region. Russia has traditionally been the strongest influence in Central Asia, but Moscow has been occupied with its invasion of Ukraine, which has also sparked fears among Central Asian nations that they may be targeted next. Bloomberg CNN Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Weighs Benefits of US-Made Patriot System. Taiwanese officials are reportedly tracking Ukraine’s use of the US-made Patriot missile defense system to assess if Taiwan would benefit from such a capability given the major missile threat from China. Ukraine and the US military have claimed that the Patriot system was used to intercept Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Despite that promising development, experts are split on whether the Patriot system would be useful to Taiwan. Some argue that the Kinzhal may not actually qualify as hypersonic, meaning the Patriot could prove ineffective against true hypersonics launched from China. Others say the Patriot system used to intercept the Kinzhal fired dozens of missiles to do so, meaning it may not be a cost-effective option for Taiwan. The actual cost of the system may also prove too much, as CSIS reports that a single new Patriot battery costs over $1 billion. In any case, with or without the Patriots, the US support for Ukraine has pushed Taiwan to urge Washington to accelerate its military aid to the island. South China Morning Post
Former Taiwanese Defense Minister Says Taiwan May Pay ‘Unthinkable’ Price for Accepting US Weapons. Former Taiwanese Defense Minister Feng Shih-kuan, who now heads Taiwan’s Veterans Affairs Council, warned that Taiwan may pay a price for accepting free weapons from the US. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently announced that the US was sending additional military support free of charge amidst rising tensions with China. Feng did not elaborate on what costs the island may pay, saying only that he does not believe Taiwan would be naive enough to go to war, even with US support. South China Morning Post
Chinese Security Minister Heading Overseas Corporate Crackdown. Chinese President Xi Jinping has put minister of state security Chen Yixin in charge of the crackdown on overseas firms. Experts say the crackdown, which has included raids on offices of US due-diligence companies and questioning of staff from overseas consulting firms, could signal that Beijing is focusing more on maintaining security rather than pursuing economic growth. The appointment of a heavy-handed figure like Chen coupled with the dramatic incidents in the latest clampdown is likely to further lessen foreign investment. Bloomberg
Vietnam Criticizes China, Philippines over South China Sea Infringements. Vietnam denounced the behavior of the Philippine Coast Guard and a Chinese research ship in the South China Sea on Thursday for "violating the sovereign rights and jurisdictions" of Vietnam and entering its exclusive economic zone. Tensions in the highly-contested and economically-valuable waterway have risen significantly in recent months. Vietnamese and Chinese vessels have confronted each other in the region multiple times. Beijing asserts that scientific research in the area is routine. Hanoi also reprimanded the Philippines for installing navigational buoys in the Spratly Islands, as both countries claim the right to control parts of it. The rhetoric out of Vietnam comes amid continued discussions on a South China Sea code of conduct meant to offer guidance on maritime behavior in the region. Reuters
Australia, Philippines Boost Maritime Security Cooperation. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited Manila on Thursday to offer support for the Philippine coast guard. In talks with her Philippine counterpart Enrique Manolo, Wong pledged deliveries of surveillance drones and other high-tech equipment, as well as drone training, aimed at bolstering the Philippines’ maritime security. Wong added that Australia is also considering going on joint patrols with the Philippines in the region. The move comes amid increased tensions in the South China Sea, where the Philippines has competing maritime claims with China, Vietnam and others in the region. Associated Press Bloomberg
South Korea Tells China it Hopes for Continued Economic Collaboration. South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho met with China’s ambassador to Seoul on Friday to discuss South Korea and China’s economic relationship amid heightened political tensions due to geopolitical concerns, including Taiwan. Kyung-ho reportedly stressed desires for continued economic engagement based on mutual respect. Experts say South Korea is seeking to bolster its economy amid a stunt caused by a drop in exports. Reuters
North Korea Calls US and South Korea Drills ‘Nuclear Blackmail.’ North Korean state media KCNA released a statement on Friday accusing the US and South Korea of committing “nuclear blackmail” with their joint military drills. In the statement, Pyongyang also promised to take adequate action to counter the “warmongers.” The statement came in response to a series of annual springtime military drills that US and South Korean forces have been engaged in since March. Reuters
Micron Technology, Japan Launch $3.7 Billion Advanced Chip Deal. Micron Technology is investing 500 billion yen ($3.7 billion) in developing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. Japan will support the effort, providing around 200 billion yen ($1.5 billion) in incentives. The investment will go towards expanding EUV lithography chip making machines which are used for 1-gamma chips, which are used for mass production of material for complex applications like image processing networks. The deal is the latest effort by Japan to bolster its chip industry, as well as a move by the US to support an ally in countering China’s semiconductor and advanced technology development. US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emmanuel said the deal will help in “confronting China’s coercion” and expand US-Japan cooperation in securing supply chains. Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal
Middle East and Northern Africa
US Military Unclear if al-Qaeda Leader Killed in Syria Drone Strike. US military officials are walking back on a claim that a drone strike launched in early May in Syria killed an al-Qaeda leader. The doubt stems from claims by the family of 56-year-old Lofti Hassan Misto, who say they identified him as the one killed in the strike. They added that Misto did not have any ties to terrorist organizations. Terrorist experts erred on the side of Misto’s family, saying that they found no evidence he was affiliated with any terrorist group and assessing that it would be unusual for al-Qaeda to be operating where the drone strike occurred, near Misto’s house, as the area is controlled by a rival group. A spokesperson for US Central Command, which oversaw the drone strike, says it is aware of reports of a civilian casualty and is investigating the matter. Anonymous defense officials told The Washington Post that there is uncertainty in the Pentagon about who was killed in the strike, though some sources maintain an al-Qaeda target was killed, even if it wasn’t a senior leader of the group. Washington Post
Syria’s Assad in Saudi Arabia for Arab League Summit. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to attend an Arab League Summit. It is his first time participating in a meeting of the group after Syria was suspended over 11 years ago due to Assad’s crackdown on pro-democracy opposition. The Arab League readmitted Syria earlier this month in a move that showed most Arab nations are seeking to restore ties after recognizing that Assad’s hold on power is secure. Al Jazeera Axios BBC
Israeli Nationalists March in Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City. Thousands of Israeli nationalists marched through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City on Thursday as part of Jerusalem Day celebrations, which commemorates the capture of East Jerusalem in 1967. During the march, a group of marchers threw stones and other objects at journalists who were present at the event near the Damascus Gate entrance. They also yelled the slogan “Death to Arabs.” Several far-right Israeli cabinet ministers also joined in on the event, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. BBC Times of Israel Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Australian Doctor Freed After Being Held by Al Qaeda for 7 Years. The Australian government announced Friday that 88-year-old Australian physician Dr Kenneth Elliott has been freed after 7 years of imprisonment by Al Qaeda extremists in West Africa. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong says he is in good health and has been reunited with family. For more than 40 years Dr. Elliott and his wife Jocelyn ran a small clinic in Djibo, Burkina Faso before they were kidnapped in 2016 by al-Qaeda. Jocelyn was released after three weeks due to “guidance” by al-Qaeda leaders to not involve women in war, while Dr. Elliot remained. BBC Reuters
Nigeria Attack Kills 80. Dozens of gunmen in the remote Mangu region of Plateau, Nigeria shot and killed at least 80 villagers and burned their homes in an assault that lasted from Monday until Tuesday. A security force spokesperson said the attackers, who are believed to be disgruntled herdsmen, engaged in “sporadic shooting across a vast area of different villages. Police have arrested seven suspects following the attacks. Violence in the region between semi-nomadic herdsmen and farmers has escalated as Nigerian security forces are stretched thin. ABC News Associated Press
Cyber and Tech
Top French Court Backs AI-enabled Cameras for Paris Olympics. A decision by France’s top constitutional court supports the use of AI-enabled surveillance cameras at the Paris Olympics while also issuing guidelines for their use. The court explained that the French parliament’s approval of the surveillance technology does not violate privacy rights because of human oversight of the use of “algorithmic processing.” The court acknowledged that the monitoring systems will be used to “prevent public order offenses” in accordance with the constitution. The AI-enabled cameras do not include facial recognition and are limited to use during large-scale public events, such as sports or cultural events. The court’s guidance prohibits linking footage and data collected by the cameras to other databases. Politico
Meta Decision To Release AI Technology Greeted with Mixed Reviews. Meta’s decision to release the code for LLaMA, the company’s AI technology underlying chatbots, was intended to benefit academics, government researchers, and others approved by the company. However, the code soon leaked onto 4chan, a chat room known for spreading disinformation, and the open Internet. Meta says its actions are motivated by a sense that “the platform that will win will be that open one.” That sentiment was expressed by Yann LeCun, Meta’s chief AI scientist, who added that the environment of secrecy at Google and OpenAI is a “huge mistake.” In response, Google, OpenAI and others have pointed to the dangers of Meta’s approach. One example is the research project at Stanford University to create their own AI system based on Meta’s technology. One of Stanford’s researchers used the system to generate offensive information, including racist material and commentary sympathetic to Adolf Hitler. The researcher is reported to have said open release of the code is akin to making “a grenade available to everyone in a grocery store.” Stanford has removed the AI system from the Internet. New York Times
U.S. Alleges Zoom Executives Aware of Platform Censorship by Chinese Authorities. Federal court documents charge that the Zoom video-conferencing platform capitulated to Chinese government pressure and took steps to suppress content on the service. Zoom’s actions were taken following a visit by Zoom CEO Eric Yuan to China in 2019 to deal with the Beijing government’s decision to block Zoom’s operations. Federal prosecutors said that Zoom relented to the government’s demands that user communications be monitored for political opinions and rumors unacceptable to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The U.S. criminal complaint filed by the U.S Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York alleges that a Zoom employee, Julian Jin, assisted government officials in monitoring and harassing dissidents, initially concealing his actions from Zoom executives. However, the updated Federal complaint indicates that at certain points Jin informed executives about his collaboration with China’s censors. CyberScoop
Chinese S&T Minister Outlines Plans for Domestic AI Development. Wang Zhigang, China’s S&T minister, urged Chinese companies to capitalize on opportunities flowing from the rapid development of AI technology. Speaking at the opening of the 7th World Intelligence Conference in Tianjin, Wang said the country plans to establish regional AI “highlands” across the country. Wang did not elaborate on the AI “highlands” concept, but advocated for collaboration between local industry and research and educational facilities in AI-related projects. Wang also acknowledged the risk inherent in AI advances, adding that China has established guidelines and ethical norms for AI regulation to promote responsible development of advanced technology. South China Morning Post
Russian Court Sentences IT Worker for Role in Pro-Ukraine DDoS Attacks. A Russian IT worker was sentenced to three years imprisonment for participating in distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on Russian government websites in support of a pro-Ukraine campaign. The IT technician, Yevgeny Kotikov, targeted websites of the Defense Ministry and the office of the president. A Russian researcher, Oleg Shakirov, attributed the “harsh” sentence to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, noting that “authorities would like to deter Russians from helping the Ukrainian cause, including in cyberspace.” Shakirov said Kotikov’s sentence might be a warning to other Russians who might think that DDoS attacks are “an easy and painless way to confront the government.” TheRecord
Congress Adds CISA Satellite, Open Source Software Oversight Roles in Draft Legislation. Senate and House committees advanced several bills on Wednesday that would add new oversight and standard-setting responsibilities to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). The Senate Homeland Security committee approved new CISA roles that would require the agency to maintain a clearinghouse for commercial public satellites and to create voluntary cybersecurity standards for the space sector. On the House side, the Homeland Security committee put forward a bill mandating CISA’s collaboration with creators of open source software to ensure its security. Another House bill would authorize CISA to retrain DHS employees so that they could take on cybersecurity roles. Some legislators expressed concerns about the expansion of CISA authorities and are opposed to it becoming a “regulatory” agency. CyberScoop
DoD Autonomous Technology Office Proposed To Spur Military Adoption. A draft bill introduced into the House in May would create a new Pentagon office responsible for coordinating and accelerating the use of autonomous technologies by the armed forces. The proposed “Autonomy Office” would be part of the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office. One of the sponsors of the Autonomous Systems Adoption & Policy Act, Rep. Rob Wittman, said the need for the new component stems from a bureaucracy that is “not going to do it.” Noting that several uniformed services are planning for AI technologies to aid decision-making and battlefield performance, the bill’s sponsors believe special attention must be paid to autonomous systems. Speaking at the Nexus 23 conference in Washington this week, Wittman said the legislation aims to ensure available technology is “not just being applied in a spot, quick way,” adding that “we don’t want it limited by how one service branch sees autonomy. We want to make sure that it’s looked at from a broad perspective.” C4ISRNet
Study Finds Ukraine, Russian Hacktivists Cause Limited Damage, But Rally Support. A new collection of essays from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examines the role that commercial and volunteer groups have had in Ukraine, especially related to cyberwar. Hacktivists for both Ukraine and Russia have made their presence known throughout the conflict. Pro-Russian groups like Killnet have launched a variety of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against Ukrainian and Western networks. Killnet now claims almost 2,000 members and more than 50,000 “fans'' on its Telegram channels. The best known group promoting Kyiv’s cause in cyberspace is the “IT Army of Ukraine,” which at one point reached 400,000 members around the world, a figure that now stands at about 200,000. The IT Army was created by Ukraine’s deputy prime minister with support from Ukrainian tech firms. The common thread between Ukrainian and Russian hacktivists, the study finds, is that their impacts have been “less tactical or economic than social and political.” One of the study contributors, Erica Lonergan, an assistant professor in the Army Cyber Institute at West Point, noted that the IT Army has done an effective job of leveraging social media to build support among both domestic and Western audiences. Lonergan assesses that “the act of collectively conducting relatively simple cyberattacks thus builds and reinforces community, providing something around which to rally and energize supporters.” BreakingDefense
Ex-Google CEO Warns of China’s Intense Commitment to Military Use of AI. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt told a House select committee on competition with China that a key threat emerging from Beijing is the country’s committed drive toward employing AI for military purposes. Schmidt testified that Chinese investments in AI for military use outstrips that of the U.S., adding that Beijing’s “civil-military fusion” adds to China’s advantage. While acknowledging a U.S. lead “by a few years” in AI and quantum computing, Schmidt cautioned that “there’s every reason to think they have more people working on strategic AI.” A report issued by the Special Competitive Studies Project, which Schmidt chairs, said that China’s accumulation of advanced capabilities is “designed specifically to counter” the U.S. approach to warfighting. Bloomberg
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