Friday, May 12, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
US, China Pledge to Maintain Communications as Two Top Officials Meet. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Vienna this week, marking one of the highest-level US-China meetings since the Chinese spy balloon incident in February. Beijing’s embassy in Washington said the talks were “candid, substantive and constructive.” A senior US official said that both sides recognized that the balloon incident resulted in a pause in the relationship, and that there was now an effort to establish a normal channel of communication moving forward. The US official said that there was no discussion of rescheduling a visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, but both sides agreed to maintain open communications and that Sullivan emphasized that the US did not seek conflict with Beijing. Reuters South China Morning Post
US Seeking High-Value Russians for Potential Prisoner Swap. The Biden administration is reportedly seeking high-value Russians detained across the world for a potential swap with two Americans detained in Russia, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan. Sources say the US does not have any high-value Russian spies in its custody, so it is looking at allies and partners who have detained alleged Russian spies, including Brazil, Norway and Germany. The US is also reportedly looking at other possible options to entice Moscow like narrow sanctions relief. CNN
US Senators Accuse Pentagon of Not Cooperating with ICC War Crimes Prosecution of Russia. At a hearing on Thursday US Senators accused the Pentagon of failing to cooperate with the Russian war crimes investigation being led by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Democratic Senator Dick Durbin says he has been told by the ICC that the US Justice Department and the US State Department were both cooperating but that so far the Department of Defense (DOD) has refused. During the hearing lawmakers urged Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to follow the law, passed last year, that allows US cooperation with the ICC on the investigation. When pressed, Austin said he does support holding Russia accountable but has concerns about reciprocity towards US service members going forward. The concern, which Austin has previously stated, is that any US military cooperation with the ICC could open the door to politicized prosecution of US troops stationed or operating abroad. Reuters
Uncertainty at the US-Mexico Border as Title 42 Policy Ends. Title 42, the COVID era border policy that allowed US authorities to quickly expel migrants before they could apply for asylum in the US, expired at 11:59 pm Thursday night. Authorities and media reports say that uncertainty over what comes next caused a surge of migrants rushing across the border ahead of the policy ending this week. The Biden administration is working to offer new legal pathways for asylum seekers while also attempting to increase the penalties for illegal immigration in an effort to stem the flow of illegal entry to the US. A border patrol said earlier this week that there were currently 27,000 people in custody, having been apprehended while illegally crossing into the US, and that authorities could see as many as 11,000 people, per day, attempting to enter the US following the end of Title 42. Associated Press New York Times Al Jazeera
US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Prevent Normalization of Relations with Syria Under Assad. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced a bill on Thursday that would prohibit the US government from recognizing a Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad. The bill would also expand the Caesar Act, which imposed sanctions on Assad’s regime in 2020. The proposal comes amid moves by Arab states to normalize relations with Syria after years of confrontation, most clearly seen in their decision to allow Syria back into the Arab League. Reuters
US to Sell Chinook Helicopters to Germany in $8.5 Billion Deal. The US State Department has approved the potential sale of 60 Chinook helicopters to Germany. The sale is reportedly worth $8.5 billion and meant to boost Germany’s heavy-lift capability. The department added that the helicopters are not intended for use in Ukraine. Associated Press
US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman Expected To Leave Post. US Deputy Secretary for State Wendy Sherman is expected to leave her position in the summer, according to CNN. The replacement for the United States’ No. 2 diplomat is unknown, and no reason was provided for her departure. Sherman has been in the role since April 2021 and has taken the lead on China policy in the department during her tenure. CNN South China Morning Post
Western Europe
Spanish PM Sanchez to Press Biden to Consider Non-NATO Views on Ending Ukraine War. According to a Spanish source, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday will press President Biden to take into account the opinions and proposed solutions to ending the Ukraine war, of non-NATO nations such as Brazil and China. Though Madrid aligns with Washington on the points that arming Ukraine is necessary and that the Russian invasion was illegal, Spain’s relationship with Beijing and some Latin American countries have led Madrid to attempt a role as a mediator. Sanchez has both visited China, and welcomed Brazilian President da Silva to Madrid. Sanchez’s visit with Biden comes just weeks before Sanchez assumes the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the remainder of 2023. Reuters
Explosion at West Germany Apartment Building Injures Several, Suspect Detained. A suspect has been arrested following an explosion at an apartment building in the western German town of Ratingen. The blast injured several people, including two police officers and several firefighters, on Thursday. Officials were responding to a call at the building when the explosion occurred. The body of a woman was recovered from the apartment but police have not commented on her identity or a possible cause of death. Police officials initially said they could not rule out a ‘targeted attack’ as a possible cause and say they have now detained a 57-year old German man on suspicion of homicide. CNN Associated Press
Suspect Detained, 2 Killed in German Mercedes Factory Shooting. On Thursday a 53-year old Turkish citizen allegedly opened fire at a Mercedes-Benz Factory in Sindelfingen, Germany, killing two men who were employed with the logistics company Rhenus. He has been arrested on suspicion of double homicide after being subdued by security at the factory, and the motive is being investigated by authorities. Associated Press
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Advances in Bakhmut Amid Intense Fighting and Increased Russian Air Strikes. The situation around Bakhmut appears, by most accounts, to be intensifying and dynamic as both sides make competing claims about battlefield success. Ukraine says that its forces have achieved a significant breakthrough around the embattled city of Bakhmut, and that Ukrainian forces advanced in one area 2 kilometers. A Ukrainian official also says that their forces haven’t lost a single position in the area in over a week. Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar says that Russian forces have sustained significant losses this week, a claim that appears to be somewhat supported by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said on Thursday that Ukraine was putting pressure on Russia’s flanks. Prigozhin accused Russian military forces of abandoning positions around Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also reported Ukrainian advances around Bakhmut. But Russia’s Defense Ministry has pushed back on claims of widespread Ukrainian gains, and in a post on its Telegram channel says the Ukrainian claims of breakthroughs along multiple fronts “do not correspond to reality”. Russian officials did admit that units in some areas had to retreat to “advantageous positions”. CNN is reporting, citing Ukrainian military officials, that Russian forces have launched more than 50 air strikes in the Bakhmut region in the last day in response to advancing Ukrainian units. CNN BBC Deutsche Welle New York Times
Ukraine Begins Shaping Operations in Advance of Expected Offensive. Senior US officials who spoke with CNN say that Ukraine’s military has begun “shaping” operations in advance of the highly anticipated offensive. Shaping operations include operations to target an enemy’s logistics and supply hubs along with artillery and ammunition facilities to prepare the battlefield for large-scale combined military operations. One of the officials say that shaping operations can continue for many days before the main effort of the Ukrainian offensive begins. CNN
Ukraine Claims Intensity of Wagner Assaults Increasing in Bakhmut. Assaults from Russia’s Wagner Group in Bakhmut have escalated, according to Ukrainian Colonel Roman Hryschenko, who has led forces fighting in the city. Hryschenko says the mercenary group has increased shelling and artillery attacks and does not appear to be facing any munitions shortages, despite claims from the group’s head, Yevgeny Prigozhin that the Russian army is withholding the necessary ammunition from the mercenary group that is needed to capture the city. Reuters
Chinese Envoy to Visit Ukraine and Russia in Major Diplomatic Move by Beijing. China will send its special representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui on a diplomatic tour through Europe to seek solutions to ending the Ukraine war. Li will stop in Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia. The move will make China one of the few countries to send envoys to both sides of the Ukraine war, and Li will be the most senior Chinese official to visit Ukraine since the war began. A spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry says the visit demonstrates that Beijing is “firmly on the side of peace”. Li has previously served as the Chinese ambassador to Russia from 2009-2019 and also served as the head of East European affairs in China’s Foreign Ministry. South China Morning Post
Asia and Oceania
Top Chinese Official in Hong Kong Says Won’t ‘Back Down’ in Protecting Sovereignty. China’s top diplomat in Hong Kong formally addressed lawmakers for the first time on Thursday in a closed-door meeting. According to attendees, Liu Guangyuan, the commissioner of China’s foreign ministry’s arm in Hong Kong, focused on emphasizing that China won’t “back down” from protecting its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and development opportunities against Western encroachment. He specifically accused the US of targeting China’s economy and taking a “zero-sum” view towards relations with Beijing. However, Liu also said that China seeks a “cordial and stable” relationship with the US, pending mutual respect and cooperation from Washington. Besides the US, Liu also reportedly touched on China’s relations with Russia, which he said Beijing would be friendly with without entering into any “formal alliances,” and the border dispute with India. Attendees said Liu did not discuss Hong Kong and said it would not be the last time he addressed the city’s lawmakers. Experts say the “rare” meeting aimed to prepare Hong Kong leaders on how to address the West when creating development plans for the city. South China Morning Post
China’s Foreign Minister to Visit Australia. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will reportedly visit Australia in July for a “reciprocal visit,” following a visit by Australian foreign minister Penny Wong to Beijing in December. Sources say Beijing has confirmed the timing of the trip, but China’s foreign ministry has not provided further details. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade added that Wong looks forward to the “next opportunity” to meet Qin without elaborating further. Qin’s reported trip to Australia will come shortly after Australian trade minister Don Farrell’s trip to China this week to further talks on alleviating trade blockages and tariffs. The flurry of diplomatic activity between Beijing and Canberra suggests an improvement in relations after years of tensions over trade issues, alleged Chinese interference in Australian politics and other areas of friction. South China Morning Post
G7 Finance Chiefs Discuss Reducing Reliance on China. Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers are meeting in Japan this week ahead of a wider G7 summit next week. The finance minister talks are reportedly focused on discussing the need to reduce supply chain reliance on China for greater supply chain resiliency. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that Germany and other G7 economies want to achieve this by increasing involvement with emerging and lower income nations. Despite alignment on this issue, the G7 has not unanimously agreed on how far the group should go to counter China; the US is seen as leading the effort to implement strong controls and measures, while countries like Japan and Germany are wary of targeted measures that could impact their countries’ close economic ties with Beijing. Reuters
Pakistani Court Orders Former PM Imran Khan to be Released on Bail. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s lawyer reported on Friday that a Pakistani court has ordered that Khan be released on bail for two weeks, following deadly protests in the aftermath of his arrest. The Pakistani Supreme Court ruled a day prior that his arrest on corruption charges was “invalid and unlawful.” While the rulings mean Khan is protected from re-arrest for the next two weeks, the corruption charges against him still stand. Khan, who was ousted in April of 2022, is still Pakistan’s most popular leader according to opinion polls, and his ousting and arrest have resulted in mass protests led by his supporters around the country. BBC CNN Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
U.S. Envoy Claims Iran Continues to Traffic Weapons, Narcotics to Yemen. U.S. Special Envoy to Yemen Ted Lenderking reported on Thursday that Iran continues to smuggle war-fueling drugs and weapons to Yemen, in violation of a China-brokered accord with Saudi Arabia in March to reestablish peace in Yemen. Iran's flood of arms and narcotics into Yemen threaten to extend the conflict in the country, which began in 2014 and has killed tens of thousands and sparked a major humanitarian catastrophe. Many consider the violence in Yemen to be a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and U.S. officials have accused Iran of supplying weapons such as drones and missiles to the Houthis, who now control much of the nation. Reuters
Palestinian Rocket Attacks and Israeli Air Strikes Continue for Fourth Day. Israel continued to strike targets in the Gaza strip and more Palestinian rockets were launched into Israel on the fourth day of ongoing violence. Air raid sirens were heard as far north as Jerusalem. Al Jazeera says that as many as a dozen rockets may have been fired, and Israeli aircraft were heard overhead across the region. At least 31 Palestinians in Gaza and one man in a Tel Aviv suburb have died in the violence in recent days. The fighting comes amid efforts by Egypt, Qatar and the UN to broker a ceasefire. Hamas officials reportedly told local media on Friday that Egypt was ramping up negotiation efforts through “intensive contacts” with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Al Jazeera Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
U.N. Insists End to Sudan’s Violence as Battles Rage on Despite Talks. The UN on Thursday is calling on all countries with sway in Africa to help end the conflict in Sudan, which has killed hundreds and continues to rage on following several unsuccessful attempts to establish a ceasefire. U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk accused warring sides in Sudan of breaking humanitarian law and pressed all countries “with influence in the region to encourage . . . the resolution of this crisis." Though some advancements have reportedly been made in the Jeddah peace talks and American mediators are "cautiously optimistic," fighting has not stopped; witnesses say planes continue to circle around the Khartoum capital region. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) added Friday that updated reports say 200,000 people have fled Sudan into neighboring countries since fighting started last month. Around 60,000 of the Sudanese refugees have fled to Chad, including 30,000 in the last few days. Reuters
South Africa Investigating US Accusation of Supplying Arms to Russia. South African President Cyril Ramphosa announced Thursday that his government has launched an independent inquiry into allegations that the country has given weapons to Russia amid the Ukraine war, despite South Africa’s stated neutrality in the conflict. The investigation comes after US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety told journalists that the US is “confident” that a Russian cargo ship was loaded with weapons and ammunition while docked in South Africa in December before heading back to Russia. Brigety said the US has “profound concerns” over the alleged arms transfer as it would mean South Africa is not adhering to its professed position of non-alignment over Ukraine. South African Communications Minister Mondli Gungubele, who chaired an arms control commission when the alleged arms transfer took place, said Friday that the South African government has not approved any such weapons shipment to Russia in the last year and that any transfer that has taken place is illegal. Al Jazeera Reuters
UN Report: 500 Allegedly Executed in Village in 2022 by Malian and Foreign Troops. The UN Human Rights Office reported on Friday that Malian soldiers and other unidentified foreign troops described as “armed white men” likely killed at least 500 people and sexually assaulted and tortured others in the Malian city of Moura last year. Troops allegedly descended on the village in a five-day operation starting on March 27, 2022, where they opened fire on residents. The UN Human Rights Office added that the incident is the worst atrocity it has seen during the conflict between Islamist groups and the country’s army. The foreign troops' identities were not clear, but some believe that Russia’s Wagner Group may have been involved. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Biden Administration Conducting Overdue Review of Critical Infrastructure Protection. A broad and critical review of Federal policy on protecting critical infrastructure is under way in the Biden administration. Since the original publication of Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) in 2013, events have transformed both cyber technology and threats to key systems. The review is intended to update safeguards against hacking in vulnerable sectors such as finance, energy, and agriculture. CISA Director Jen Easterly said Wednesday that even with protections created after the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, “we remain very vulnerable to significant threats,” especially from China. Recalling a recent annual intelligence community threat assessment, Easterly said that Beijing shows no sign of restraint when it comes to potentially launching an attack on U.S. critical infrastructure if the U.S. acted to fend off an invasion of Taiwan. PPD-21 is being revised by several Federal agencies, including CISA, the Office of the National Cyber Director and the National Security Council. According to Easterly, “we’re looking at how we can assess sectors, whether we still need certain sectors, whether we want to add a sector like space or something else.” Washington Post
European Parliament Committees Advance ‘Tough’ Draft AI Bill. The European Parliament took another step toward a Community-wide law to regulate AI tools, including generative AI applications like ChatGPT. After two years of parliamentary negotiations and committee work, the draft EU AI Act was approved and will now advance to the “trilogue” process of finalizing legislation details through discussions with the European Commission and EU member states. The draft approved this week included a ban on facial recognition technology in public spaces and on “predictive policing tools.” Dragos Tudorache, who was involved in drafting the AI bill, described it as “a delicate deal. But it is a package that I think gives something to everyone that participated in these negotiations." Reuters
Google Developers Event Unveils AI Innovations, Product Enhancements. Google’s annual developers’ conference introduced a number of software, service, and product innovations, including the PaLM 2 AI large language model, AI Gmail writing tools, new features for the Bard AI chatbot, and generative AI capabilities for Google’s flagship search engine. The AI enhancements of Google search center on the delivery of not just website links and summaries, but full sentence responses along the lines of ChatGPT. The new capability will be offered on an experimental basis by sign-up in the U.S. in the next several weeks. The AI-enabled search engine will offer follow-up queries in a conversational style, without the need to repeat context or details. Bard, Google’s rival to ChatGPT, is available in English in more than 180 countries and will soon feature 40 languages, including Japanese. The new iteration of PaLM 2, Google’s AI program, will be incorporated in many Google products, including Bard and the new search capabilities. Financial Times TheVerge Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Space Startup Plans First Commercial Space Station Launch in 2025 with SpaceX Help. The space venture company, Vast, plans to launch the first commercial space station by late 2025 as an eventual replacement for the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS is expected to be decommissioned by 2030. Vast’s space station, known as Haven-1, will be lifted into low-earth orbit by a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The first residents of Vast’s Haven-1 station will be a four-astronaut crew who will arrive at the station aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicle. The crew plans to remain aboard Haven-1 for about 30 days before returning to earth. Portions of Haven-1’s life-support systems will be brought to the space station by the Crew Dragon spacecraft, which will remain powered up to provide air, water, and other services. ArsTechnica Reuters
Chinese Imports from ‘Chip 4 Alliance’ Nations Fall Sharply Amid U.S. Sanctions. U.S. export limits on advanced chips and semiconductor production equipment continued to impact Chinese chip imports in the first four months of 2023. Chinese imports of integrated circuits were down 21 percent so far this year compared with the same timeframe in 2022. Worldwide, a chip shortage last year has developed into a glut on the market since December. American sanctions have had repercussions for chip manufacturers across Asia as the U.S.-led Chip 4 Alliance, which includes South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, begins to have effects. South Korean exports to China have fallen almost 30 percent this year while Japanese and Taiwanese exports have dropped 18.5 percent and 27.5 percent, respectively. South Korea has not announced restrictions on chip and equipment exports to China although the U.S. has asked Seoul not to fill the market gap if China bans sales of Micron Technology products. South China Morning Post
Dragos Executives Targeted in Ransomware Attack. Dragos, a global cybersecurity firm, was the target of a hacking attack directed at company executives and family members. The firm said implanting ransomware appeared to be the threat actors’ goal but that no company systems were breached. Working through the email account of a newly hired employee, the hackers extracted “general data” as well as a number of threat intelligence reports from the Microsoft SharePoint collaboration program. A Dragos blog post noted the stolen data likely will be made public “because we chose not to pay the extortion.” The hackers were thwarted in attempts to breach other parts of the Dragos network because access was limited by role-based control rules. CyberScoop
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