Friday, March 3, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
US Announcing New Ukraine Military Aid. The Biden administration will on Friday announce around $400 million in new military aid for Ukraine. Sources say the new package will include Guided Multiple Launch Rockets for HIMARS launchers, ammunition for Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and further armored vehicle support equipment. The aid will be funded with the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which pulls from US inventory for arms transfers. Reuters
Biden Invokes Defense Production Act to Boost Hypersonics Production. President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act on Wednesday to facilitate domestic production of components and materials for hypersonic systems. A White House memo on the matter says the move directs federal government agencies to support and provide funding for the production of “airbreathing engines, advanced avionics position navigation and guidance systems, and constituent materials for hypersonic systems.” DefenseScoop
Germany’s Scholz Visiting Washington. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington on Friday. The trip will mark Scholz’s first visit to the US since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sources say Biden and Scholz will focus discussions on the best ways to maintain support for Ukraine, as well as the potential risk of China supplying lethal aid to Russia. The meeting is set to be low-key, with Scholz reportedly arriving without a press delegation. CNN Deutsche Welle Reuters
Zelenskiy, Brazil’s Lula Discuss Peace Talks to End Ukraine War. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a phone call with Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday to discuss the Ukraine war. Lula said he reaffirmed Brazil’s support of a peaceful resolution to the conflict and that Brazil will encourage other countries to back peace efforts. Lula’s office added that he will discuss peace efforts with China and Russia and that Zelenskiy invited him to visit Kyiv. While Brazil has declined to send lethal aid to Ukraine to counter Russia, it has criticized Moscow’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and has worked to position itself as a mediator to help end the war. Reuters
US Blacklists 37 Chinese, Russian Entities. The US Commerce Department on Thursday added 37 entities to its Entity List, including 28 Chinese firms and individuals. US suppliers must now secure additional export licenses to work with the blacklisted entities. Those targeted are accused of various activities including supporting the Russian and Chinese militaries, working with a sanctioned Iranian electronics firm, contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, and facilitating human rights abuses in Myanmar and China. China’s commerce ministry criticized the blacklisting of the Chinese firms, saying the US will use any excuse to suppress Chinese businesses. Reuters Wall Street Journal
US Cracks Down on Russian Sanctions Busting. The US departments of Justice, Commerce and Treasury issued a joint notice on Thursday urging compliance with sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The issue called for companies to be vigilant for “red flags” which indicate sanctions evasion, including the use of shell companies, aliases and unclear shipping or contact information. The issue also warned that entities and individuals engaged in sanctions evasion will be held accountable with potential prosecution or enforcement actions. The guidance comes amid growing concerns that Turkey, the UAE, and countries in central Asia and the Caucasus like Armenia and Uzbekistan are being used as weak points to get restricted items to Russia and Belarus. Financial Times Reuters
US Charges Two Men Suspected of Smuggling Technology to Russia. The US Justice Department says US authorities arrested two Kansas men on Thursday on suspicion of illegally selling aviation technology to Russia. The two men are also accused of providing repair services for equipment used in Russian-made aircraft. Prosecutors say the two men had been operating the scheme since 2020 and continued after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. They are currently charged with the crimes of exporting controlled goods without a proper license, smuggling, conspiracy and falsifying export information. The New York Times reported that it was unclear if they two individuals had legal representation. Al Jazeera New York Times US Department of Justice
US Imposes New Sanctions on Iranian Petrochemical Industry. The US imposed new sanctions on entities linked to Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trade. The sanctions targeted 11 firms and 20 shipping vessels that facilitated this trade in violation of US sanctions. Those sanctioned include two Chinese companies and companies based in Vietnam and the UAE. The measures freezes the US assets of the targeted firms and restricts Americans from doing business with them. Al Jazeera Reuters US Department of State
Canada Probing Potential Foreign Election Interference. Canada’s election watchdog said Thursday that it is launching an investigation into allegations of foreign election interference. The probe will address reports of alleged Chinese interference in Canada’s federal elections in 2021 and 2019. The announcement came as a Canadian parliamentary committee passed a motion calling on the federal government to launch a public inquiry into foreign election interference claims. Concerns over the matter follow Canadian intelligence agencies saying that they are investigating reports of Chinese influence in Canada, though they have said there is no evidence that recent federal elections were compromised. China has refused any wrongdoing, with Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang calling allegations that China is using its diplomatic missions in Canada to stage influence activities as “completely false and nonsensical.” CBC Reuters
SpaceX Launches Crewed Capsules to ISS. A SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule launched from Florida on Thursday and brought two US astronauts, a Russian cosmonaut and a UAE astronaut to the International Space Station early Friday morning. The four-man team will stay on the ISS for six months to conduct a variety of experiments, including research focused on future long-duration human space expeditions. Reuters
Israel Calls on Brazil to Order Iranian Warships to Leave. Israel is urging Brazil to reverse its decision to allow two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro. The naval vessels arrived in Rio on Sunday despite US pressure to deny them entry to the port. Israel’s Foreign Ministry called the visit “dangerous and regretful” and urged Brazil to order the warships to leave. Reuters
Western Europe
US Hosts Ukraine for War Games in Germany. The US is hosting war games for Ukrainian troops at a US Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany. The “tabletop” exercises are reportedly focused on helping Ukraine plan actions in the next phase of the Ukraine war such as counter offensives to reclaim territory. US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley visited the exercises on Thursday and told reporters that the US is not directing Ukraine’s military how to act but providing it with the training and tools to “self-learn.” New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal
Central and Eastern Europe
Bakhmut Situation ‘Critical’ Amid Escalating Russian Assault. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his mercenaries have essentially surrounded the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, and claims that there is now only one route remaining out of the embattled city. Prigozhin called on Ukrainian President Volodymry Zelenskiy to order his troops to withdraw. Ukraine’s military did not confirm his claim but did signal the severity of the situation with military officials saying that fighting is happening “round the clock” and that Ukrainian forces in the city are in desperate need of ammunition. Reuters says its reporters observed intense Russian shelling along the one remaining Ukrainian route into and out of the city, and say they also observed more Ukrainian troops heading to the front lines, as well as Ukrainian troops fortifying defensive positions in the area. Reuters The Cipher Brief
Investigators Find Evidence of Russian Torture Chambers in Kherson. The Mobile Justice Team – a group of war crime investigators funded by the US, Britain and EU – reported on Thursday that they have found evidence that a network of at least 20 torture chambers in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region was “planned and directly financed by the Russian State.” The mobile team added that the torture centers were used to “subjugate, re-educate or kill Ukrainian civic leaders and ordinary dissenters” and that Russian security agencies like the Russian Federal Security Services (FSB) operated the torture network. Previous media reports documented the Kherson torture chambers in January. Ukrainian authorities say at least 200 people were tortured at 10 locations in the network. Reuters reports that the Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment. CNBC Reuters The Guardian
Putin Signs Decree to Ensure Defense Contractors Meet Obligations. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed a decree that will allow the government to take over defense companies that fail to meet state defense contracts when martial law is declared. The decree allows the Russian state to dismiss directors, shareholders and other leadership of firms that do not meet obligations under military contracts, such as ensuring production deliveries. The move is Russia’s latest step towards militarizing its economy. Al Jazeera Bloomberg
Asia
Australia Says US Nuclear Technology Will Be Safe in Submarine Deal. Australia’s ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos said on Thursday that US technology will be protected under the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal with Britain. His reassurance comes amid concerns that strict export controls and Australia’s lack of a domestic nuclear propulsion industry will complicate nuclear-powered submarine transfers to Canberra under the deal. Sinodinos said work is being done to ensure the “seamless transfer of technology” without elaborating on specifics. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
IAEA Chief Visiting Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is visiting Iran for “high-level meetings” to try to get Tehran to cooperate with investigations into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. The IAEA’s Board of Governors passed a resolution in November ordering Iran to cooperate with the investigations, which it has yet to do. Diplomats say they hope Raisi’s visit will generate some progress on the matter ahead of the IAEA board’s next meeting on Monday. Euronews Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Macron Says French Interference in Africa is Over. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that the era of French interference in Africa is “well over.” He added that France does not wish to return to “the age of Francafrique,” a term used by pan-Africanists that refers to France’s support of dictators in its former colonies following decolonization. Macron’s comments came ahead of a summit in Gabon at the start of an Africa tour. Sources say Macron will use the visit to push France’s new role in Africa, marked by a reduced and reformed French military presence and greater French economic and environmental support. France 24
Cyber & Tech
Australian Think Tank Finds China Overtaking US In 37 Critical Technologies. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published a report on Thursday that suggests China is overtaking the US in some cutting edge scientific and technological developments. The report measured “high-impact research” by examining 2.2 million research citations across leading academic papers between 2018 and 2022. The analysis shows that Chinese researchers are beating Americans in 37 of 44 critical technologies examined. The research highlighted that China is investing heavily in military and space research, including hypersonics. The report adds to a growing body of evidence that indicates China’s aggressive research and development drive is positioning Beijing to lead on key future breakthroughs. The report notes that technology leadership does not automatically translate into manufacturing success, though it warns that China could still grow to hold a monopoly on certain critical technologies. Wall Street Journal
US Leading In AI, But Trailing China in Other Advanced Computing, Study Shows. A new report from MIT, think tank Council on Competitiveness, and investment firm Silicon Catalyst suggests that the US is losing dominance in key areas of advanced computing, especially when compared to China. The report highlights developments that suggest the US is losing its edge on advancing computing, including the fact that the US no longer develops the most advanced computer chips, does not have the most supercomputers, and is no longer leading on some measures of algorithmic innovation. While the report noted US leadership in certain areas like generative AI, seen in ChatGPT, it warns that the US must invest more in novel developments in advanced computing rather than in existing technologies. WIRED
Russian Government Entities Banned from Using Foreign Messaging Apps. Russia’s internet regulator Roskomnadzor announced that Russian government organizations will no longer be allowed to use foreign private messaging apps. The ban currently covers Discord, Microsoft Teams, Skype for Business, Snapchat, Telegram, Threema, Viber, WhatsApp and Wechat. BleepingComputer
US Research Team Lays Out Biocomputer Benefits. Researchers from John Hopkins University published a paper on the benefits of developing biocomputers, which are powered by actual human brain cells. The paper asserts that this “organoid intelligence” will be more beneficial than traditional computers as they should use less energy, learn faster, and take up less space. The report concedes that there is still much work to be done to create biocomputers given technical challenges – such as sustaining neuron samples long enough and improving communication between neural organoids – as well as ethical questions. ArsTechnica
Chinese Breakthrough in Chip-Based Gyroscopes to Accelerate Missile Production. Chinese defense industry engineers have published research that says they have developed a low-cost fiber-optic gyroscope used in missiles. The new gyroscope, which allows missiles to correct its movement mid-flight, reportedly can be mass-produced in a traditional computer chip plant. The development aims to boost China’s ability to produce and deliver tactical missiles and other guided weaponry. South China Morning Post
GAO Urges State Department to Assess Allies’ Abilities to Counter Cybercrime. The Government Accountability Office released a study on Wednesday that calls on the US State Department to conduct a new comprehensive evaluation of allies’ abilities to combat cybercrime. The GAO said the study will help quantify the contributions of US assistance to allies’ counter-cybercrime capabilities. The report also raises issues to global efforts to address cybercrime, including the lack of dedicated resources, difficulties in maintaining a highly skilled cyber workforce, bureaucratic and financial obstacles in working with the US government, and a failure to properly define “cybercrime.” The State Department said it agreed with the report’s recommendations to improve cyber collaboration efforts. FedScoop
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