Friday, March 24, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
TikTok CEO Testifies Before Congress, Fails to Placate U.S. Concerns. The future of TikTok remains uncertain after TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew was grilled at a congressional hearing about the app on Thursday. Lawmakers raised questions about the potential influence by the Chinese government on TikTok, as well as the app’s data collection practices and possible impact on children’s mental health. Chew worked to allay their concerns, saying that TikTok has not collected data beyond industry norms, nor has it shared data with the Chinese government or censored content at the behest of Beijing. Chew also reiterated that TikTok seeks to be transparent and protect data of American users through proposals to store relevant data in the U.S. and allow third-party monitoring. Despite Chew’s defense, he received bi-partisan criticism and skepticism, failing to shake lawmakers from their fears of potential data and privacy risks from the app. However, while the hearing went solidly against TikTok, it is still unclear if the U.S. government will go through with a full ban on the app. Questions remain as to what legislation is needed to impose a ban and how it would be enforced, with experts saying it would most likely involve the U.S. prohibiting business with TikTok or its parent company ByteDance. Furthermore, public opinions on the wildly-popular app remain divided. The Washington Post released a survey which showed that while a majority of Americans support a ban on TikTok, regular users of the app and younger people are significantly more likely to be against it. And finally, analysts add that moves against TikTok risks escalation with China responding with tit-for-tat restrictions on US companies and apps. CNN New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post
China Rejects U.S. Demand for Forced Sale of TikTok. TikTok’s plight is not being made any easier by China’s rejection of the Biden administration’s demand for the app’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell it. The U.S. says it is wanting ByteDance to divest TikTok to move the app away from Chinese influence. Hours before Chew’s testimony in Congress, China’s commerce ministry said it will “firmly oppose” any such forced transaction, adding that any export of technology like the sale of TikTok must be “in accordance with Chinese laws.” The ministry’s comments suggest that Beijing may block ByteDance from a forced sale of the app – a move that would cement U.S. concerns about the Chinese government’s influence on TikTok. TikTok’s Project Texas proposal to store data of American users on U.S. servers and have third-party monitoring access seeks to address U.S. security concerns while keeping the app under ByteDance. But after Chew’s hearing, this plan and any other compromise is unlikely to be accepted in Washington. New York Times Wall Street Journal
Top U.S. General Says War with China, Russia ‘Not Inevitable’ but Warns of Chinese Actions Escalating Tensions. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said Thursday that war with China or Russia is “not inevitable nor imminent” but that Beijing’s growing support of Moscow is inviting “confrontation” and risking “potential conflict with its neighbors and possibly the U.S.” Milley specifically warned that the potential supply of lethal aid from China to Russia will “prolong” the Ukraine war and make it “global.” His comments came at a House hearing where he discussed the Pentagon’s 2024 budget request of $842 billion, which Milley described as focused on deterring war. South China Morning Post US Department of Defense
Top General’s Testimony Triggers Criticism of Austin, Biden Response to Chinese Spy Balloon. At a separate Senate hearing, lawmakers criticized Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden for their perceived delay in ordering the Chinese spy balloon that flew over the U.S. month to be shot down. The criticism came after General Glen VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said he scrambled fighter jets to intercept the balloon when it was first detected in Alaska but only held talks with Austin about the balloon five days later. In the meantime, VanHerck said he could not order the balloon to be shot down because it was not observed to have “hostile intent,” thus giving only Austin or Biden the legal authority to decide the balloon’s fate. A Defense Department spokesperson disputed the alleged communications delay, saying that Austin had been engaging with VanHerck throughout the balloon flight to develop options and only held formal talks five days later to have time to review those options. Politico
Pentagon Investigating Lapse in Boeing Security Credentials for Air Force One Planes. The U.S. Department of Defense is investigating how Boeing Co. employees without the proper security clearances were able to work on current and future Air Force One planes. The investigation comes after Boeing found that around 250 of its employees who work on Air Force One planes had their “Yankee White” security credentials, which are needed to work on the jets, expire. The issue, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, impacts current VC-25A Air Force One planes and the next-generation VC-25Bs. Boeing said it temporarily suspended access to the jets for employees whose credentials had lapsed, adding that most have been re-approved to start working where the Air Force One planes are built. Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. Sending Aging A-10 Planes to Middle East Amid Shift Towards Asia, Europe. The United States is deploying aging A-10 attack planes to the Middle East in April. U.S. Central Command says the A-10s will fulfill U.S. defense needs in the Middle East, including efforts in Iraq and Syria to battle Islamic State militants and operations against Iranian-backed militias in the region. The move is part of an ongoing effort to shift more modern, stronger capabilities away from the Middle East to Europe and Asia to counter escalating threats from Russia and China. For example, in addition to the A-10 deployment, officials say the U.S. military will regularly base just two to three ships in the Middle East, but not an aircraft carrier, and maintain two U.S. Army Patriot battalions and around 30,000 total U.S. military personnel in the region. Some officials have raised concerns that this lessened defense posture is inadequate to defend U.S. interests in the Middle East, though the Pentagon seems keen on shifting towards the return of “great power” dynamics beyond the region. Wall Street Journal
Canada, U.S. Reach Agreement on Asylum Seekers as Biden Visits Ottawa. President Joe Biden is in Ottawa for his first presidential trip to Canada. Biden has met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and is set to speak with other top officials, including Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. U.S. officials said Biden’s visit is covering issues such as climate change, the Ukraine war, critical minerals and Haiti. In regards to migration, officials say the U.S. and Canada struck a deal on diverting asylum seekers intercepted at their border. The arrangement, which is being announced by Biden and Trudeau on Friday, will authorize Canada to turn back migrants seeking to enter Canada from the U.S. at an unofficial, popular crossing point in Roxham Road, New York. In exchange, Canada is launching a legal refugee program for 15,000 migrants fleeing South and Central America per year, which officials say will help address illegal border crossings at the U.S. southern border with Mexico. CBC New York Times Reuters
Biden Adds 14 Chinese Entities to Red Flag Export Control List. The Biden administration added 14 Chinese companies to a red flag list on Thursday, as well as 18 other entities from a variety of other countries. The move will require U.S. exporters to practice stronger due diligence when doing business with the listed companies, which have been targeted because U.S. officials have not yet been able to properly inspect them for potential security risks. The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it “strongly deplores and firmly opposes” the export controls, calling them measures meant “to suppress and contain foreign companies.” Reuters
Western Europe
Denmark Invites Russian-Controlled Nord Stream Pipeline Operator to Salvage Unidentified Object. Denmark is asking the Russia-controlled operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, to help salvage an unidentified object detected near the pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Danish authorities made the request to the Swiss-based operator Nord Stream 2 AG, which is controlled by Russia’s state-run gas company Gazprom, after it identified a tubular object near the pipeline last week. Denmark says the object does not pose an immediate risk, but that its recovery could shed light on the explosions which crippled the pipelines last September. Deutsche Welle Reuters
EU’s Von der Leyen Planning Ukraine Children Conference, Rescue. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday that she is organizing a conference focused on returning Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia and Russian-controlled territories during the Ukraine war. Von der Leyen said she will work with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to organize an international effort to secure the children’s return. Her announcement comes after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for allegedly overseeing this forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. France 24
Sweden Sending $600 Million Military Aid Package to Ukraine. The Swedish parliament on Thursday approved a $600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The weapons package includes Archer self-propelled artillery systems, Robotsystem 97 missile systems, and Leopard 2 tanks and ammunition. The Swedish government also pledged to transfer 14 Archer systems to the U.K. to help replace artillery systems which the British have given to Ukraine. Kyiv Independent
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Preparing Counter Offensive Amid Continued Defense of Bakhmut. Ukraine’s military says its forces continue to deter the Russian offensive on the eastern city of Bakhmut, claiming that 1,020 Russian troops have been killed in 80 failed Russian attacks against the embattled city and nearby towns over the past 24 hours. Ukraine’s top ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russian forces “are losing considerable strength and are running out of steam” in these failed assaults, which has given the Ukrainian military the “opportunity” to prepare and soon launch a counter offensive. The Institute for the Study of War notes a shift in tone of Yevgeny Prighozin, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, from a combative to a more supportive rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense, which may indicate that Prigozhin is concerned of a potential Ukrainian counter offensive and the threat it poses to Wagner forces, which are focused on Bakhmut. Prighozin also says that Russia’s military should stop underestimating Ukrainian forces, and seemed to call into question Moscow’s propaganda claims of Nazi’s being present in Ukraine. Analysts note that while Ukraine may be seeing an opening in Bakhmut, this could mean Russia is diverting forces elsewhere, with observers noting increased Russian activity in the northern Kharkiv and Luhansk regions and the central Zaporizhzhia and southern Kherson regions. CNN Institute for the Study of War Reuters
Russia’s Medvedev Says Putin Arrest Would Trigger ‘War.’ Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev warned that the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin would amount to a “declaration of war.” Specifically taking aim at Germany, Medvedev threatened that if Putin were arrested in German territory, “all our missiles… would fly to the Bundestag, to the chancellor’s office.” His inflammatory comments came after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin over his alleged involvement in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia during the Ukraine war. Berlin has expressed support for the warrant, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock saying “nobody is above the law.” However, this does not indicate if Germany or other countries who are a party to the ICC would actually enforce the warrant. Deutsche Welle Reuters The Hill
Hungary Says Won’t Arrest Putin Despite ICC Warrant. Hungary has made clear it would not implement the ICC’s warrant. Gergely Gulyas, chief of staff to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, asserted this by saying that Hungary has no legal obligation to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin, explaining that the ICC’s statute has not been fixed into the Hungarian legal system. Gulyas’ comments maintain Hungary’s soft position on the Ukraine war, as it has condemned Russia’s invasion while also refusing to provide military aid to Kyiv. His remarks also underscore the difficulty in enforcing ICC warrants and wider accountability for crimes in Ukraine. CNN Deutsche Welle
Asia
China Accuses U.S. Warship of Illegally Entering Waters in South China Sea for Second Straight Day. China’s defense ministry claimed on Friday that the US guided-missile destroyer USS Milius illegally entered China’s territorial waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea for the second straight day in a row. The ministry said Chinese forces again had to monitor and drive away the warship from the area and warned the U.S. from further “provocative acts” that risk “the serious consequences of unforeseen incidents.” The US Navy again maintained that the USS Milius was asserting navigational rights and freedoms in the contested waters. France 24 Reuters
India Says Russia Unable to Fulfill Military Arms Deliveries. The Indian Air Force (IAF) warns that Russia is not able to supply promised, critical defense supplies to India’s military as Moscow is having to divert military equipment to its invasion of Ukraine. The IAF’s warning is the first official confirmation about reported disruptions of unspecified military supplies from Russia, which is India’s main source of defense equipment. The Russian Embassy in New Delhi said it did not have information on the alleged shortfalls and the state-run Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport did not comment on the matter. Experts say this issue will likely push India to more strongly work to reduce military dependence on Russia in favor of Western suppliers and domestic production. CNN Reuters
Vietnam Resisting U.S. Diplomatic Upgrade Over China Concerns. Experts say that there is growing pushback in Vietnam against U.S. efforts to upgrade relations with the Southeast Asian country. The U.S. is reportedly seeking the upgrade to coincide with the 10-year anniversary of Washington’s comprehensive partnership with Vietnam in July. Currently, the U.S. is at a third-tier diplomatic level with Hanoi, below the second-tier of European countries and Japan and well below the first-tier of China, Russia, India and South Korea. Experts say Vietnam’s hesitation for a formal ties upgrade comes over fears of angering China. However, the situation remains fluid as potential bilateral talks between the two countries’ foreign ministers and a possible meeting between their leaders at the G7 summit could make progress on the matter. Reuters
North Korea Reportedly Tested Underwater Nuclear Attack Drone. North Korea claims it successfully tested a new nuclear-capable underwater attack drone on Thursday. North Korean state media said the “Haeil,” or tsunami, drone traveled at a depth of 260-500 feet for over 59 hours and detonated a non-nuclear payload off the country’s east coast in the test. The media report added that the drone is designed for stealthy maritime attacks that can destroy naval strike groups and major ports with a radioactive wave caused by an underwater explosion. While analysts say it is unclear if the drone is ready for deployment, they say the test is part of Pyongyang’s efforts to demonstrate a wide-range of nuclear capabilities amid rising tensions with the U.S. and South Korea. The recent escalation in weapons testing came in response to ongoing joint U.S.-South Korea military drills. Deutsche Welle France 24 Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Saudi Arabia and Syria Reportedly Restoring Diplomatic Ties. Sources say that Saudi Arabia and Syria are close to a deal to restore diplomatic ties and re-open their embassies. Saudi Arabia and Syria severed ties in 2012 over Syrian leader Bashar al-Asad’s crackdown on Arab Spring uprisings, which helped lead to the country’s civil war. Russia is reportedly helping broker potential reconciliation between the two countries, which would initiate the process for Syria to be considered for reintegration into the broader Arab world. Such an agreement would also follow the parallel China-brokered rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Syria Drone Attack Kills U.S. Contractor, U.S. Launches Airstrikes In Response. The US Department of Defense says a suicide drone hit a coalition base in northeastern Syria on Thursday, killing one U.S. contractor and injuring another and five U.S. service members. The drone was reportedly of “Iranian origin,” pointing the blame for the attack on Iranian-backed militia groups in the region. In response to the drone strike, the U.S. military launched airstrikes against groups in the area affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The airstrikes reportedly killed eight pro-Iranian fighters in eastern Syria and hit a munition warehouse, control building and intelligence-collection site. New York Times Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
NSTR
Cyber & Tech
Middle East Telecom Breaches Show China Cyberespionage Advances. Chinese-linked hacker groups are showing an increasing aptitude for covertly infiltrating systems and stealing data, according to a joint analysis published Thursday at Sentinel Labs and the German IT services company QGroup GmbH. The analysis points to several cyber strikes tied to a year-long Chinese-aligned cyberespionage operation, known as Operation Soft Cell, which focuses on telcoms, as well as financially motivated activity “potentially outside of state control.” “Chinese cyberespionage threat actors are known to have a strategic interest in the Middle East,” the researchers concluded. “This is evident from their consistent targeted attacks on various entities including government, finance, entertainment, and telecommunication organizations. The recent activities targeting the telecommunication sector this post discusses are some of the latest such attacks.” CyberScoop
Chinese-Made Drones Above U.S. Critical Infrastructure Pose Espionage Threat. One of the world’s leading commercial drones producers, which controls more than 70% of the U.S. hobby market, is a Chinese company that receives funding from four investment firms “owned or administered by Beijing” since 2018, including a state asset manager considered critical to Chinese military-civil partnerships. Da Jang Innovations was founded in 2006 in Shenzhen, China, and has experienced such market dominance in recent years that it drove speculation that Beijing was propping up its expansion. The concern among security analysts is that DJI drones contain high-res cameras, advanced sensors and wireless access, which open doors for espionage and even sabotage as these drones routinely fly across U.S. infrastructure. CyberScoop
U.S. Concludes Albania Cyber Deployment in Response to Iranian Cyberattacks. U.S. Cyber Command concluded a so-called hunt forward operation in Albania launched in response to Iranian cyberattacks against the Eastern European country last year. The Iranian cyberattacks took place in July and September last year and targeted Albanian government systems. The Cyber National Mission Force (CNMF) team deployed for the operation, which was the first of its kind, said they successfully investigated the attacks. The team said it shared findings with Albania to bolster the country’s cyber defenses and was also able to use the hunt to improve U.S. knowledge on Iranian cyber tactics. DefenseScoop
U.S. Raises Concerns Over Russian Support of Chinese Fast-Neutron Reactor. Among the agreements announced between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during Xi’s visit to Moscow was a long-term deal for continued cooperation between China and Russia on so-called fast neutron reactors. The deal comes after reports in December that Russia’s state-run nuclear giant Rosatom Corp transferred 25 tons of highly-enriched uranium to China for use in its first CFR-600 fast reactor, which analysts say could potentially produce fuel for around 50 warheads a year. The U.S. has raised concerns about such Russian nuclear exports in support of China’s nuclear program, which have only increased in the last year despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war. Beijing has rejected these U.S. concerns, saying the CFR-600 will not be used to expand China’s nuclear-weapons stockpile. Bloomberg
Americans Most Concerned About Cyberterrorism, Gallup Poll Shows. A new Gallup poll shows that Americans are growing increasingly concerned about threats from cyberterrorism, with 84 percent of those surveyed saying cyberterrorism is the top critical threat to the U.S. A 2021 poll showed the same results of cyberterrorism topping concerns, surpassing nuclear weapons from Iran and North Korea and foreign terrorism. Analysts say this trend is likely to continue amid increasingly complex cyberattacks and bipartisan focus on passing stronger cybersecurity efforts. The Hill
Space Force Requests $16 Billion for Hypersonic Tracking Satellites. U.S. Space Force is requesting almost $16 billion over the next five years to build and maintain small satellites that can detect and track hypersonic threats. The Resilient Missile Warning Missile Tracking program would have the Space Force deploy small satellites in relatively lower orbit less than 22,000 miles above Earth to identify hypersonic missiles from adversaries. According to the Space Force’s 2024 budget request, $2.3 billion is needed for the program over the next year, with increased funding to the height of $5 billion in fiscal year 2027. Defense News
U.S. Considers Extending Major Foreign Surveillance Law. The House Intelligence Committee is discussing the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which authorizes the warrantless surveillance of foreigners abroad, even if they communicate with Americans who are on domestic soil. The law will expire this year and faces some challenges despite widespread support among lawmakers for its reauthorization. Critics say that the surveillance under Section 702 does not receive enough oversight and can be used to abuse access to communications of Americans who are communicating with foreigners. Big tech giants like Apple, Google and Meta are also seeking restrictions to the law to limit how much user data they are required to hand over to US intelligence agencies. Debates on reauthorizing the law and possibly reforming it are ongoing. Bloomberg The Hill
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