Report for Friday, June 7, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

D-Day anniversary 2024: World leaders, veterans, commemorate Normandy landings

Biden says U.S. weapons will not be used to strike Moscow, Kremlin

Polish servicemember killed in stabbing on Poland-Belarus border

Nine UN staff, likely other aid group workers, detained by Houthis in Yemen

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

U.S. and Allies Warn Veteran Pilots: China Is Trying to Recruit You.  The "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing alliance, consisting of the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, issued a warning about China’s recruitment of Western pilots to train its People’s Liberation Army aviators, enhancing China's military capabilities. This campaign involves global companies concealing their ties to the PLA and offering high salaries to attract ex-military pilots for training roles. This recruitment strategy is seen as a significant security threat by the Five Eyes, with concerns that it could improve the PLA’s operational effectiveness and reduce Western military deterrence. The US has responded with commercial restrictions and legal actions against involved companies and individuals, emphasizing loyalty and the risks of engaging with such offers.  The Cipher Brief 

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Biden administration wages pressure campaign on Hamas through allies. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, White House Middle East Coordinator McGurk and CIA Director Burns spent the past week coaching Middle Eastern allies to threaten Hamas, to accept the latest Israeli ceasefire and hostage release proposal. Each ally has been assigned a particular task in the coordinated pressure campaign. While Hamas’s initial reaction to the proposal was reportedly negative, CNN reported that Egypt had recently received positive signals from Hamas. At U.S. insistence, Qatar has threatened to kick Hamas’ political office out of the capital city of Doha if the deal is not accepted. The U.S. is asking Cairo to threaten to cut off access points from Egypt to Gaza. CNN reported that US officials privately said that Egypt is putting more pressure on Hamas than in the past, but whether it’s enough remains to be seen. CNN 

Israeli strike on UN school in Gaza kills dozens. Israel aimed a targeted airstrike Thursday at a UN school in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces said warplanes attacked “three classrooms'' with precision weapons, targeting about 30 militants that included fighters who participated in the October 7 attacks. Thousands of civilians were hiding out in the school. According to the Washington Post, the morgue at al-Aqsa Martyr’s Hospital near the camp said late Thursday that 33 people were killed in the strike, revising down an earlier toll, the Associated Press reported. The morgue said nine children, three women and 21 men were killed, according to the AP. Israeli fighter jets reportedly used a GBU-39 small-diameter bomb manufactured by Boeing. Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Hagari said Israel had carried out “a precise, intelligence-based strike” against “dozens of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists hiding inside a UN school.” “Hamas hopes that international law and public sympathy will provide a shield for their military activities—which is why they systematically operate from schools, UN facilities, hospitals and mosques,: Hagari said. White House national security spokesperson Kirby said Thursday that Israel “absolutely” has a right to target Hamas and Hamas fighters often “shelter in civilian facilities,” but that doesn’t give Israel carte blanche. “We are asking for more information, more context,” Kirby said. Reuters  Washington Post  Times of Israel  New York Times 

U.S., Russia tangle over UN resolution on Gaza ceasefire plan.The U.S. is pushing a draft resolution in the UN Security Council that would back a proposal outlined by President Biden for a ceasefire in Gaza. The council's only Arab member, Algeria, indicated it was not ready to vote yes. Some council members have raised questions about whether Israel will accept the plan.  Russia proposed amendments to the U.S. text that called upon both Hamas and Israel to accept the proposal. Russia also sought wording demanding an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire, a condition Israel has repeatedly rejected. Reuters

Netanyahu to speak to joint session of Congress July 24. "I am very moved to have the privilege of representing Israel before both Houses of Congress and to present the truth about our just war against those who seek to destroy us to the representatives of the American people and the entire world," Prime Minister Netanyahu said in the statement. It was not clear if Netanyahu would meet with President Biden while in Washington. Israel has become a political liability for Biden and has divided the Democratic party. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said in a separate statement that he had joined in making the invitation to Netanyahu."I have clear and profound disagreements with the prime minister, which I have voiced both privately and publicly and will continue to do so," Schumer said. "But because America’s relationship with Israel is ironclad and transcends one person or prime minister I joined the request for him to speak.”Reuters Associated Press

Israeli military tactics result in fewer deaths of Palestinian women, children.The proportion of Palestinian women and children being killed in Gaza have dropped, an Associated Press data analysis has found. The trend suggests Israel is changing battlefield tactics, as the Biden administration has exhorted. In October, more than 60 percent of the dead were women and children. For the month of April, the percentage dropped to 40 percent. The declining impact on women and children — as well as a drop in the overall death rate — are “definitely due to a change in the way the IDF is acting right now,” Gabriel Epstein, a research assistant at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said.  “That’s an easy conclusion, but I don’t think it’s been made enough.”  Associated Press

Israeli forces kill three Palestinians, wound at least 13 in West Bank raid.The Palestine Red Crescent Society said its teams were fired at while recovering the dead. Israel's military reported that during an operation in Jenin, its forces exchanged fire with militants, killing some and wounding others, including some who hurled explosives. The UN says more than 500 Palestinians and 12 Israelis have been killed in the West Bank since October 7. Reuters

U.S. sanctions Palestinian group Lions' Den over West Bank violence.The U.S. imposed sanctions Thursday on the Palestinian militant group Lions' Den, which has been attacking Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank. Lions’ Den is the first Palestinian group to be sanctioned under an executive order on West Bank violence issued by President Biden last February. "The United States condemns any and all acts of violence committed in the West Bank, whoever the perpetrators, and we will use the tools at our disposal to expose and hold accountable those who threaten peace and stability there," State Department spokesman Matt Miller said. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Biden says U.S. weapons will not be used to strike Moscow, Kremlin. In an interview with David Muir of ABC News, President Biden said that U.S. weapons authorized for Ukraine would not be used to strike Moscow or the Kremlin. Speaking from the Normandy American Cemetery on the 80th anniversary of D-Day, Biden clarified that these weapons are only to be used near the Russian-occupied Kharkiv region. "We're not authorizing strikes 200 miles into Russia, and we're not authorizing strikes on Moscow, on the Kremlin," Biden said. He remains concerned about Russian President Putin. "I've known him for over 40 years. He's concerned me for 40 years. He's not a decent man. He's a dictator, and he's struggling to make sure he holds his country together while still keeping this assault going,” the president said. Later, Biden met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. ABC News  Pravda

Biden, Zelensky to meet in Paris with $225 mln in military aid. U.S. President Biden is set to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky on Friday to discuss a $225 million weapons package, coinciding with D-Day anniversary events in Paris. This will be their first in-person meeting since Zelenskiy's visit to Washington in December. The new weaponry package for Kyiv includes artillery rounds and air defense interceptors, in addition to other inventory. Ukraine has faced difficulties defending the Kharkiv region after a Russian offensive began on May 10. U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer on Thursday emphasized the U.S.'s effort to meet Ukraine's needs for artillery and air defense, despite limited supplies. Reuters ABC Ukrainska Pravda

As Zelensky visits for D-Day, Macron promises Ukraine Mirage aircraft to fend off Russian attacks. French President Macron announced Thursday that France will provide Ukraine with Mirage combat aircraft to aid its defense against Russia. He did not specify how many Mirages France would provide, when or under what financial terms. This announcement came after Ukrainian President Zelensky joined world leaders in France to commemorate D-Day and seek additional Western support. Macron stated that the Mirage 2000 aircraft would help Ukraine protect its territory and airspace. The Mirage 2000 is a multi-role, single-engine jet fighter. France will also train Ukrainian pilots. Macron reiterated that Ukraine should be allowed to use weapons provided by its Western allies to target Russian military targets and “neutralize the points from which (the country) is being attacked.” White House national security spokesperson Kirby noted there has never been a restriction on Ukrainian forces shooting down hostile aircraft, “even if those aircraft are not necessarily in Ukrainian airspace. ... They can shoot down Russian airplanes that pose an impending threat. And they have. They have since the beginning of the war.”Associated Press ABC News Kyiv Independent Reuters 

Ukraine uses U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia, according to a senator and a Western official. Ukraine has used U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia under new guidance from President Biden. The directive permits using American arms to defend Kharkiv from Russian attacks but prohibits the offensive use of long-range missiles. Republican Senator Mike Rounds and an anonymous Western official confirmed the strikes. White House national security spokesperson Kirby could not confirm specific details. Germany also authorized Ukraine to use its weapons for similar purposes. This development comes amid  Ukrainian efforts to defend Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, less than 20 miles from the Russian border. Associated Press

New naval attack by Ukrainian intelligence in Crimea: Russian vessel destroyed. On Thursday, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (DIU) successfully destroyed a Russian vessel, likely a harbor tug, in a maritime attack in the Black Sea near Crimea. The attack occurred at 3:45 a.m. and was part of an operation that breached Russian maritime fortifications. DIU spokesperson Andrii Yusov confirmed the strike during a national newscast. Ukrainska Pravda  Kyiv Independent

UK Defense Intelligence analyzed Ukraine's attack on Russian ferry crossing in Kerch.UK Defense Intelligence reported that Ukrainian strikes on Russian ferry crossings near Kerch, Crimea, have disrupted Russian logistics, particularly military supplies. On May 29, Ukraine disabled two ferry crossings, which were crucial for transporting fuel and ammunition. Russia may need to replace the ferry service or relax rail security on the Kerch Bridge. Despite heavy security investments, the Strait remains vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. No information suggests that ferry operations in Kerch have resumed. Ukrainska Pravda

Why did US hesitate to allow Ukraine to hit Russia with American weapons? To avoid escalating tensions with Russia, the U.S. delayed supplying tanks, ATACMS missiles, and F-16 jets to Ukraine and restricted their use on Russian territory. However, U.S. Representative Rick Larsen, a Democrat from Washington, highlighted the contradiction of these restrictions amid Russia's intensified attacks and nuclear drills. Larsen and other lawmakers pushed for lifting restrictions, resulting in President Biden easing some limitations around Kharkiv. Despite this, many restrictions remain, prompting members of Congress to complain about “half-measures.” Analysts argue these limitations hinder Ukraine's defense. “By prohibiting Ukraine from striking Russian territory and Russian airspace, the Biden administration has provided the Putin regime with a sanctuary from which it can kill Ukrainians at will,” U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, a Republican from Texas, said in a statement. The Institute for the Study of War recently produced a report concluding that Russian aircraft can strike at least 2,480 settlements in northern Ukraine without needing to leave Russian airspace. Kyiv Independent

Russian forces using thermobaric munitions in attacks on Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are using multiple-launch rocket systems with thermobaric munitions in attacks on Donetsk Oblast’s Chasiv Yar,  Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia forces, said on Thursday. These munitions, which "destroy and burn everything in their path," have made it difficult for Ukrainian defenders. The town, previously home to 12,000 residents, now has around 670 remaining. Despite constant strikes primarily focused on the southern part of Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces still hold the town. Thermobaric munitions are not prohibited under international law. Kyiv Independent

Chinese, Ukrainian ministers meet days after Zelensky slams Beijing over Russia relations.Senior Chinese and Ukrainian ministers met in Beijing on Wednesday, the first meeting since Russia's invasion more than two years ago. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sybiha urged China to attend the June 15-16 peace summit in Switzerland despite President Zelensky's recent criticism of Beijing's alignment with Russia. Sybiha emphasized Zelensky's peace formula, while China reaffirmed its commitment to mutual respect and cooperation with Ukraine. On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said “conditions are not yet ready for peace talks” and that China would “make its own decisions” on attending such meetings. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Zelensky has been reluctant to criticize China and its growing alignment with Moscow openly, but speaking to reporters at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Sunday, he accused Beijing of trying to stop other countries from attending the talks in Switzerland. South China Morning Post 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, June 6, 2024.Russian President Putin claimed that Russia will provide long-range strike capabilities to unspecified actors for attacks on the West. Russian naval vessels will visit Cuba on June 12–17. Putin suggested Russian forces might suffer 20,000 monthly casualties in Ukraine. French authorities are investigating pro-Russian sabotage operations in France. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and reportedly hit an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast. Ukraine aims to recruit 120,000 personnel in 2024, but slow Western assistance may limit their provisioning and equipping. Russia and Taliban officials expressed interest in cooperation. Russia's demographic crisis will constrain its long-term human capital.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk, southeast of Kupyansk, northeast of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, south of Velyka Novosilka, and near Krynky. Institute for the Study of War 

Ukrainian forces shoot down five missiles, 48 drones launched by Russia.Ukraine’s military on Friday claimed that its air forces managed to successfully intercept five Russian missiles and 48 out of 53 drones over nine regions during an overnight assault. In the Kyiv region, drones and Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles caused a fire at an industrial facility, which was extinguished with no casualties. In Kharkiv, drone attacks damaged windows in three residential buildings, a store, and a post office. Drones were also shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions, with no significant damage reported. Ukraine's Deputy Energy Minister confirmed that no energy infrastructure was damaged in the attack. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine charges Russian general over Kakhovka dam destruction. Russian Colonel General Oleg Makarevich is suspected by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) of orchestrating the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast on June 6, 2023. The incident, which involved the blowing up of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and its dam, resulted in widespread humanitarian and environmental devastation. Over 30 people were killed in Ukrainian-held areas, with potentially hundreds more casualties in Russian-occupied territories. The disaster also left hundreds of thousands without clean drinking water, severely damaged the environment and agriculture, and jeopardized the operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Makarevich faces charges of violating war laws and premeditated murder, with a potential life sentence if convicted. The SBU, along with the Prosecutor General's Office, is actively seeking to bring all involved parties to justice.  Kyiv Independent KC

EU pushing to start Ukraine accession talks before Hungary assumes bloc presidency in weeks. The European Commission plans to recommend starting EU accession talks with Ukraine before Hungary, which has close ties with the Kremlin and has obstructed support for Kyiv, assumes the EU Council presidency in July 2023. Belgium, currently holding the presidency, is striving for unanimous support for this move. Despite Ukraine receiving EU candidate status in June 2022 and the European Council agreeing to open talks in December 2023, Hungary is expected to object, particularly over minority language issues. Ukraine has recently aligned its national minorities law with EU standards to address such concerns. Meanwhile, the Commission also seeks to initiate formal discussions with Moldova, but not with Georgia due to its recent "foreign agents" law, conflicting with EU directives.  Kyiv Independant

The Americas

At D-Day Ceremony, Biden Warns Against Isolationism. At the 80th anniversary of D-Day, President Biden warned Thursday against isolationism and defended trans-Atlantic security ties amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and rising authoritarianism. “Isolationism was not the answer 80 years ago and is not the answer today,” Biden said in Normandy, adding: “The price of unchecked tyranny is the blood of the young and the brave. Their generation, in their hour of trial, the allied forces did their duty. Now the question for us is: In our hour of trial, will we do ours?” Earlier in the day at the American cemetery in Colleville-sur-Mer, Biden said, "The forces of liberty are stronger than the forces of conquest. We will not turn our backs on Ukraine.” French President Macron also underscored the importance of supporting Ukraine. The event was attended by dignitaries, including King Charles III, and served as a reminder of the human toll of war and the enduring significance of international alliances. Wall Street Journal The Economist

‘Bullying’ China spurs US to limit advanced tech exports: American ambassador. U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said restrictions on advanced technology exports to China are driven by Beijing’s aggressive actions and the potential militarization of these technologies. Speaking at the Asia Society in New York on Thursday, Burns emphasized that Washington aims to prevent falling behind in technology. The Biden administration has reinforced export limits on advanced semiconductors, AI processors, and other tech items initially imposed by the Trump administration. Burns cited China’s island-building in the South China Sea and territorial disputes with Asian neighbors as examples of its aggressive stance. He stressed the importance of continued dialogue to avoid conflict despite rising tensions and China’s hardline policies. We didn’t change … It’s that China has,’’ Burns said. “China is increasingly the factory of the Russian war machine,” said Daleep Singh of the National Security Council, speaking separately on Thursday at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security.  South China Morning Post

More migrants crossing Panama's Darien Gap. About 170,000 migrants crossed the Darien Gap that connects Panama to Colombia over the first five months of this year, Panama's migration agency said Thursday. The number represents a 2% higher than crossings in the same period of last year, suggesting 2024 could set a new record for migrants heading for the Southwest border.Reuters 

Texas seeking court bar on Biden admin's destruction, removal of border fencing.A U.S. appeals court appears open to preventing the Biden administration from destroying Texas' razor-wire fencing along the Mexico border while the state pursues a lawsuit accusing the federal government of trespassing. The case, heard by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, involves Texas' challenge to a ruling that the state cannot apply its trespassing law to the federal government, which is immune from the lawsuit. Texas sued in 2023 after federal border agents began removing the fencing along the Rio Grande. A previous 5th Circuit decision had paused the destruction of the fencing, arguing that federal immunity didn't apply, but the U.S. Supreme Court paused that decision. Judge Kyle Duncan questioned the federal agents' removal of the fence, stating it facilitated border crossings. The White House argued that Border Patrol agents are tasked with apprehending and processing migrants, not sending them back to Mexico, and Texas countered that agents should deter migrants from crossing the border initially. The appeals court's decision could impact broader immigration enforcement and legal battles between the Biden administration and Republican-led states. Reuters

Trump says may impose tariffs against nations like China over illegal immigration.Former U.S. President Trump, speaking at an Arizona campaign event, stated he might impose tariffs on countries, including China, that do not help curb undocumented immigration to the U.S. if he wins the November election. He emphasized using "tremendous economic power" to pressure countries to reduce migrant flows. This marks Trump's first campaign event since being found guilty of falsifying business records in May. Trump also suggested relocating U.S. troops from abroad to patrol the southern border. Reuters

Mexican mayor of Cotija, bodyguard ambushed, killed by gunmen.In the latest incident in a rash of violence against Mexican political figures, Yolanda Sanchez, mayor of Cotija in western Mexico’s Michoacan state, was ambushed, shot, and killed by armed men on Monday, along with her bodyguard. Local media reports that she was shot 19 times. Both Sanchez, who was mayor since 2021, and her bodyguard succumbed to their injuries in a hospital the same day. A probe into the shooting is still ongoing. Adrian Lopez Solis, Michoacan attorney general, said Wednesday that personnel of the municipality had received threats demanding Sanchez “prevent or avoid the federal forces from carrying out [security] tasks.” Solis also noted that there have been tensions between criminal rings for control around Cotija. Last year, Sanchez was abducted by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Mexico’s general election campaign saw the murder of 39 political candidates.Reuters

Argentina's Milei will travel to Italy next week for G7 summit. Argentine President Milei is expected to travel to Italy next week for the Group of Seven (G7) summit from June 13-15, according to a spokesperson. This news contradicts reports that the Milei decided not to go forward with the trip. He is set to return to Argentina after the closing of the summit, and will return to Europe at another date in the future. Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Philippines claims China’s coast guard blocked medical evacuation, calls actions ‘barbaric.’ Philippines Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela on Friday accused the Chinese coast guard of harassment, and of intentionally hindering  efforts to evacuate an ill member of the armed forces in the hotly contested South China Sea last month. The incident occurred at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where a small group of marines are stationed to guard the BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine ship that has been grounded in the location for years. Tarriela called Beijing’s behavior “barbaric and inhumane,” and described how the Chinese vessels "engaged in dangerous maneuvers” and purposefully rammed a navy boat while it was evacuating the unwell soldier. Romeo Brawner, the head of the Philippine military, claimed on Tuesday that China had prevented the first attempt to transport the sick personnel to the province of Palawan in the west. The troop had to be evacuated the next day. The Chinese embassy in the Philippines has not responded to requests for a comment. Reuters 

Swedish defense chief says actions against Philippines in South China Sea threaten global security. Sweden's Defense Minister Pål Jonson, during a diplomatic reception in Manila, expressed grave concerns over dangerous maneuvers by China in the South China Sea, particularly targeting Philippine vessels. This aggression has escalated tensions, leading to collisions and injuries to Filipino personnel. Jonson highlighted these actions as threats not only to regional but also global security. Sweden is considering supplying the Philippines with supersonic jets as the latter shifts its military focus towards territorial defense. The confrontations have prompted the Philippines to file diplomatic protests and seek international support to counteract China's aggressive postures in the disputed waters.   Associated Press  

Australian ambassador to US says a war over Taiwan would shift global dynamics.Kevin Rudd, the Australian ambassador to the U.S., warned on Thursday that a war over Taiwan’s independence from China would impact the world as greatly as WWII, and create "a radically different place." In a speech in Honolulu, Rudd suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping might seek to achieve unification with Taiwan within the next decade. He emphasized the importance of understanding China's military signals and exercises, and highlighted that Beijing's decision to act would depend on its assessment of U.S. deterrence strength. The U.S., which has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but supports its defense, views the potential annexation of Taiwan by China as a threat to its global credibility and alliances. Rudd, a China scholar, stressed the severe economic, political, and strategic consequences of a potential conflict, suggesting that any outcome would dramatically alter the global landscape. Reuters Japan Times South China Morning Post

Two British judges resign from Hong Kong's top court, intensifying concerns for the future.Two British judges, Jonathan Sumption and Lawrence Collins, have resigned from Hong Kong’s top court, heightening concerns about the city's rule of law under Beijing's national security law. Collins cited the political situation in Hong Kong as his reason for resigning but expressed confidence in the court's independence, while Sumption is expected to issue a statement next week. The resignation of the two judges, who served as non-permanent overseas judges of Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal, reflect broader worries about judicial independence in Hong Kong following the 2020 national security law, which has led to the arrest of many pro-democracy activists and the conviction of 14 activists for subversion. Chief Justice Andrew Cheung expressed regret over their resignations and affirmed the judiciary's commitment to upholding the rule of law and judicial independence. Hong Kong leader John Lee also showed regret over the resignations, but asserted that judicial independence and human rights remain protected. These resignations follow previous departures of other judges, including Australian judge James Spigelman in 2020 and British judges Brenda Hale, Robert Reed, and Patrick Hodge in subsequent years, all citing concerns over the national security law. Despite these departures, eight overseas non-permanent judges still serve on the court, and new appointments from overseas common law jurisdictions are expected to continue. Reuters Associated Press

Europe

D-Day anniversary 2024:  World leaders, veterans, commemorate Normandy landings.On the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, veterans and world leaders commemorated the event Thursday at Normandy. Around 200 veterans attended, with many receiving warm applause and interacting with leaders such as Ukrainian President Zelensky and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte. With the numbers of veterans fast dwindling - many are aged 100 or more - this is likely to be the last major ceremony in Normandy honoring them in their presence. The ceremony carried special significance as Russia’s war on Ukraine rages, drawing parallels between past and present struggles for freedom. "Allies defended Europe's freedom then, and Ukrainians do so now. Unity prevailed then, and true unity can prevail today," Zelensky said on the social media platform X. King Charles and German Chancellor Scholz also participated, emphasizing international collaboration against tyranny. Thousands of service members from various nations were honored, with veterans’ letters read aloud, reflecting on their sacrifices and the lasting impact of their actions. Leaders were set to adopt a declaration saying democracy was once more under threat in Europe and promising to defend freedom and democracy, two sources said. Reuters

Polish servicemember killed in stabbing on Poland-Belarus border.A Polish soldier died after being stabbed by a migrant during a clash on the Belarus border on May 28, Warsaw’s military said Thursday. Despite medical treatment, he could not be saved. His death could boost support for anti-immigrant parties in the upcoming European Union election. Prime Minister Tusk and Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz paid tribute to the soldier, calling for the defense of the Polish border. In 2022, Poland erected a 186-kilometer, 5.5-meter wall along its border with Belarus to prevent migrant crossings. Last month, the Polish government pledged to invest €2.3 billion to bolster security along its eastern border. “We have begun these works to make Poland’s border a safe one in times of peace and impenetrable for an enemy in times of war,” Tusk said. Politico

French national detained in Moscow on charges of gathering Russia military data. Moscow authorities on Thursday announced the arrest of a French citizen, Laurent Vinatier, for allegedly collecting military information without registering as a foreign agent. The detention comes amid tense Russia-France relations over the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The arrest coincided with France hosting D-Day anniversary events. Russia was not invited. Vinatier, employed by the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, is accused of gathering data detrimental to Russia's security. The organization he works for tries to help mediate between warring governments with few official channels of dialogue. French President Emmanuel Macron clarified that Vinatier was not working for France and was receiving consular protection. The incident reflects Kremlin crackdowns on independent media and activists, with increased arrests for espionage since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Associated Press The Wall Street Journal

Germany's Scholz seeks to deport migrants from Afghanistan. German Chancellor Scholz on Thursday announced plans to seek the deportation of migrants who commit crimes to countries previously deemed unsafe, such as Afghanistan and Syria. Addressing the Bundestag, Scholz condemned the recent stabbing death of a German police officer by an Afghan national. "National security outweighs the rights of individual asylum seekers,” the chancellor said. He went on to decry anti-democratic tendencies within German society and the growing number of attacks on politicians by citizens on the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum. He also discussed Germany's support for Ukraine. Scholz highlighted the importance of solidarity, security, and diplomacy while criticizing far-right elements in German politics for their pro-Russian stance. Deutsche Welle 

Putin’s existential problem: not enough Russians.Russia’s population decline, worsened by the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, poses a challenge to President Putin’s vision of a strong nation. With at least 150,000 Russians dead and nearly a million having fled since the war began, birthrates have dropped to their lowest in over two decades. Putin has made raising the birthrate a national priority, enacting subsidies and emphasizing family values. However, the demographic decline, exacerbated by the loss of talent and workforce, threatens Russia’s economic future. Efforts to address this include promoting larger families and considering restrictive measures on abortions. “The most successful population program that the Kremlin has had has been annexing neighboring territories, not increasing the birthrate,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., who studies Russian demographics. Russia has around 146 million people, far more than Ukraine, with a pre-war population of 44 million and its own demographic challenges. The Wall Street Journal 

Moldovan prosecutors mull charges against general accused of spying for Russia.Moldovan prosecutors are considering charges against former armed forces chief Igor Gorgan, accused of passing sensitive information to Russia. Gorgan, stripped of his rank and state honors by President Maia Sandu, allegedly provided details about Moldova and Ukraine to Russian intelligence since 2022. Prosecutors await further information from Moldova's SIB security service before proceeding. Relations between Moldova and Russia have worsened, with Sandu condemning Russia's war on Ukraine. Gorgan has been suspended from his security job at the United Nations High Commission for Refugees security role. Former Defence Minister Anatolie Salaru told Moldovan television that it was "abundantly clear that Gorgan is a traitor. He passed on very important information to the Russian special services. Russia uses traitors to destabilize Moldova."Reuters

Amid war, Putin looks east. Russian President Putin's pivot towards Asia and non-Western nations amidst Western sanctions and economic blockade emphasizes a strategic shift in Russia's international relations following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite severed ties with the West, Russia has not seen its economy collapse but instead fostered relations with countries like China, and influential players in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. However, the extent of investment these nations are willing to commit remains unclear. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, attended by leaders like Bolivia’s President Luis Arce and Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa, the focus was on sharing economic models and strengthening ties, albeit without significant Western presence or investment, signaling a move towards a multipolar world despite the ongoing economic challenges and reliance on "friendly countries" for essential transactions like oil sales in national currencies. Reuters

Middle East

Nine UN staff, likely other aid group workers, detained by Houthis in Yemen. At least nine Yemeni UN employees have been detained by Yemen’s Houthi rebels under unclear circumstances, amid increasing financial pressure and airstrikes from a U.S.-led coalition. The detentions, which likely include other aid group workers, occur as the Houthis, who have controlled Yemen’s capital for nearly a decade and have been fighting a Saudi-led coalition, target shipping in the Red Sea corridor due to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Regional officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed the UN detentions, which involve staff from various UN agencies and the wife of one detainee.Associated Press 

European powers describe Iran's nuclear breaches in diplomatic scheme.Three European nations, Britain, France, and Germany (E3) sent a letter to the UN Security Council describing in detail violations Iran has made of its 2015 nuclear deal, in a move that aims to pressure Tehran into resolving the issue diplomatically and avoid reimposing UN sanctions. The E3 letter references Iran's nuclear advancements, including increased high-enriched uranium production, as breaches of the deal. Although the letter doesn't explicitly threaten to "snap back" sanctions, it notes the relevant UN resolution expires in October 2025. Iran has rejected the E3’s opinion, citing the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 under President Trump and the subsequent re-imposition of U.S. sanctions. Iran argues it is within its rights to expand its nuclear program in response. At the International Atomic Energy Agency this week, the E3 successfully pushed a resolution criticizing Iran. Tensions have heightened due to recent attacks by Iranian-backed groups and Iran's acceleration of its nuclear program while limiting UN monitoring. UN Secretary-General Guterres is expected to report on the implementation of the 2015 resolution on June 24. The letter might lay the groundwork for a potential snap-back of sanctions, though some believe this could lead to further escalation by Iran. Reuters

Yemen's Houthis leaders says activities with Islamic Resistance in Iraq against Israel will heighten.Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the chief of Yemen's Houthis, announced on Thursday that their operations against Israel, in collaboration with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, would escalate. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed they launched two joint military operations with the Iraqi group against ships at Israel's Haifa port. However, the Israeli military denied these reports. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also stated on its Telegram channel that it conducted two operations with the Houthis on Haifa port. Reuters 

Explosions detected near vessels in Red Sea off Yemen’s coast.British security firm Ambrey claimed Thursday that a merchant vessel reported an explosion near it in the Red Sea, 19 nautical miles west of Mokha, Yemen. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported two explosions near a vessel 27 miles south of Mokha. No damage or injuries were reported, and the vessel continued to its next port. Ambrey noted that the ship matched the target profile of Yemeni Houthi militants, who have been attacking vessels in the area for months. The U.S. military reported destroying eight drones and two uncrewed surface vessels launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea over the past day, and mentioned an anti-ship ballistic missile launch by the Houthis. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have conducted repeated strikes in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab al-Mandab Strait, forcing ships to take longer routes. These actions are part of their claimed solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza amidst the Israel-Hamas conflict. Reuters

Africa

Sudanese army promises ‘harsh response’ to brutal RSF attack on village that killed 100.At least 100 people, including women, children, and the elderly, were killed in a Wednesday attack by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Wad al-Noura village in Sudan's Gezira province. The RSF used heavy artillery in the attack, which also injured dozens and displaced many residents. UNICEF reported at least 35 children killed and 20 injured. For over a year, the paramilitary force has been fighting the Sudanese army, and previously claimed control of Wad Madani, a refuge for displaced people. The Sudanese transitional government denounced the devastating attack and urged international accountability, labeling the RSF's actions as systematic targeting of civilians. The army promised to deliver a "harsh response" to the attack, which the the Wad Madani Resistance Committee described as a “genocide.” The paramilitary, conversely, accused the Sudanese military of planning attacks against them and stated they would continue to fight. UN officials and humanitarian organizations expressed shock and called for investigations and an end to the violence, highlighting the severe impact on children and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan. The conflict has resulted in over 14,000 deaths and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

How and why Russia’s footprint is expanding in Africa.Russia is rapidly expanding its influence in Africa's resource-rich Sahel region by offering military assistance and support to nations struggling with violence, and displacing traditional Western allies like the U.S. and France. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visits this week to Guinea, the Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso, and Chad have further strengthened ties. Moscow’s use of private security companies like Wagner and its successor, Africa Corps, supports African leaders while combating extremists and spreading its military presence on the continent. The Kremlin also seeks political support or neutrality from African nations regarding its invasion of Ukraine, leveraging Africa's significant voting bloc at the UN. Russia has spread disinformation to weaken African-Western relations, conducting numerous campaigns targeting multiple countries in order to gain access to valuable minerals and resources. African states turn to Moscow due to dissatisfaction with former colonial powers and unmet needs for security and economic stability, and Russia offers non-interfering security assistance, appealing to countries ruled by military juntas. Associated Press

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

SpaceX's Starship successfully returns to Earth, achieves demo landing on fourth test. SpaceX's Starship rocket successfully completed a full test mission around the globe, surviving a hypersonic return and achieving a breakthrough landing in the Indian Ocean on its fourth attempt. The mission lasted 65 minutes, launching from Texas and ending with a controlled splashdown, marking significant progress in SpaceX's test-to-failure development of a reusable satellite launcher and moon lander. Previous test missions ended in explosions or disintegration. SpaceX plans at least six more Starship test flights this year, aiming to demonstrate safety for NASA's lunar missions. Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO, celebrated the achievement despite the rocket's damage, noting it was a significant goal to demonstrate reentry capability. NASA plans to use Starship to land astronauts on the moon by 2026, competing with China's lunar ambitions. Musk emphasized that Starship must launch hundreds of times before carrying humans, indicating it could be years before it lands astronauts on the moon. Currently, SpaceX flies astronauts to the International Space Station using its Crew Dragon capsule on Falcon 9 rockets, but no private company has sent humans to the lunar surface. Reuters 

Boeing Starliner's first astronaut crew welcomed aboard space station. Boeing's Starliner capsule, carrying NASA astronauts Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams, successfully docked with the International Space Station (ISS) on Thursday after a nearly 27-hour flight from Cape Canaveral. Despite earlier issues with its thrusters, the Starliner, named "Calypso," completed its mission autonomously. This marks a significant step in Boeing's competition with SpaceX, as Starliner must pass this test to be certified for regular astronaut missions. The crew will stay on the ISS for about eight days before returning to Earth. This launch follows years of technical issues and delays, highlighting Boeing's challenges in this $4.2 billion NASA contract. Reuters 

Interview - U.S. Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust says ‘urgent’ scrutiny needed over Big Tech’s control of AI. US antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter is urgently investigating the AI sector to prevent dominance by a few powerful companies. He is examining competition in areas like computing power, data for training models, cloud services, engineering talent, and essential hardware like GPUs, with Nvidia currently leading in advanced GPU sales. The DoJ and FTC will divide oversight, with the DoJ focusing on Nvidia and the FTC on Microsoft and OpenAI. Kanter is concerned about potential conflicts of interest in chipmakers’ allocation decisions. The release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT has triggered a rush for AI partnerships, including Microsoft’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI. Regulators are probing these deals for antitrust issues, including Microsoft’s recent hiring from AI start-up Inflection. Microsoft defends its actions, claiming they enhance competition in the AI market. Financial Times 

Russian hacking ring takes responsibility for attacking Dutch political party websites on EU election day. Russia-based hacking group Hacknet claimed responsibility for targeting the websites of three Dutch political parties as voting for the European elections commenced in the Netherlands, according to Dutch press. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), the far-right Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), and Forum voor Democratie (FvD) experienced temporary inaccessibility due to a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack. Hacknet claimed responsibility on Telegram, stating they continue to target Dutch websites. The CDA condemned the attack as an assault on democratic elections and reported it to authorities. FvD leader Thierry Baudet referenced the attack humorously on social media. The Netherlands is the first EU member state to start voting for the European elections, with results to be announced after all member states have voted. Kyiv Independent Politico Euronews

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Kasia Kucharski, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief