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Friday, June 30, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

U.S. Considers Sending Long-Range ATACMS to Ukraine.  Officials say the U.S. is considering sending the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine.  ATACMS rockets, which are fired from HIMARS launchers, have a range of around 190 miles, which could give Ukrainian forces the ability to hit Russian targets far behind the front lines.  The U.S. has yet to approve the transfer over concerns that Ukraine would use the system to hit targets within Russian territory.  However, officials say the U.S. is becoming more open to sending the system to bolster Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the coming weeks, especially following any potential impact of the Wagner Group mutiny on Russian forces.  Ukrainian sources have pushed for the ATACMS, in part to hit Russian-occupied Crimea, which Russia has reportedly used to launch Iranian-made drones.  Wall Street Journal

Biden Administration Considering Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine.  The Biden administration is reportedly considering authorizing the delivery of contentious cluster munition warheads to Ukraine to support its counteroffensive. A US official told CNN that "these would undoubtedly have a significant battlefield impact." A final decision is still expected from Washington, but the weapons could be included in a military aid package as soon as next month if approved. Ukraine has urged the US to transfer the controversial, landmine-like weapons for many months, but the White House has been unwilling to do so because of the danger they present to civilians. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have banned the weapons, which spread “bomblets” across large swaths of land that can fall to burst on impact, over humanitarian concerns.  The US has stockpiled large amounts of the weapons since phasing them out seven years ago. Both Moscow and Kyiv have utilized cluster munitions since the beginning of the conflict in 2022, and Ukraine has recently started using Turkish cluster munitions.  CNN Politico 

Pentagon Says U.S. State Dept Agreed to Two Potential Military Sales to Taiwan.  The Pentagon reported Thursday that the US State Department has authorized the potential sale of $440 million worth of logistics supply support and ammunition to Taiwan in two separate deals. The two proposed sales include a $332.2 million deal for 30mm ammunition, including training rounds, multi-purpose rounds, and high-explosive incendiary-tracer rounds, and a $108 million deal for a Blanket Order Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement.  Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that the sales would strengthen the island against China’s “severe” and escalating “threats of military and gray zone tactics."  Reuters US DoD DSCA US DoD DSCA

Former VP Pence Visits Ukraine.  Former U.S. Vice President, who is running for the Republican nomination for president in the 2024 election, made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Thursday.  Pence met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and visited nearby villages, including Bucha, during his trip.  Pence emphasized his support for Ukraine, telling reporters, "I have confidence a day will come when Ukraine's sovereignty will be restored," and that the "free world will not stand" for Russia's invasion.  Pence’s backing for Kyiv counters some other Republican presidential candidates who have questioned the amount of aid the U.S. should give Ukraine.  Separately, in remarks to CNN, Pence commented on the Wagner Group mutiny by saying it remains to be seen whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has full control of his troops.  CNN Reuters 

Pentagon Says Chinese Spy Balloon Did Not Gather Information While Over U.S. Territory.  A Pentagon spokesperson said on Thursday that the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down after flying across the country in February did not gather information during its flight.  The balloon flew over the U.S. from Alaska to South Carolina from late January to early February.  Its route took it over sensitive military installations, raising security concerns about Chinese surveillance.  The Chinese spy balloon incident severely impacted U.S.-China relations.  Reuters The Guardian 

Canada Under NATO Pressure to Boost Defense Spending.  Canada is facing pressure from NATO Allie’s to increase its defense spending, especially amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing assertiveness and emerging threats in the Arctic.  Currently, Canada’s defense spending is 1.29% of its GDP, well below the 2% target for NATO members and the 2.58% average for the alliance in 2022.  Canada is expected to pledge an increase in its defense budget when it releases a report on its military needs before the NATO summit in Vilnius, during which the alliance is expected to push Ottawa to increase defense spending.  In order to meet the NATO target, Canada would need to spend an additional C$13-C$18 billion ($9.8-$13.6 billion) per year for the next five years. However, there is still doubt in Canada’s will to supply its own military.  A Pentagon report leaked in April said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had told NATO officials that Canada would never meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target.  Reuters

China, Russia Look to Bolivia for Lithium.  The Bolivian government announced on Thursday that it has signed lithium agreements with Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom and China’s Citic Guoan Group.  The deal could be worth up to $1.4 billion and, per the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy Franklin Molina, eventually lead to the production of some 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.  Bolivia’s salt flats contain some of the world’s largest lithium resources at about 21 million tons.  Al Jazeera  Reuters

Western Europe

Stoltenberg to Remain NATO Chief for Another Year.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will stay on as head of the alliance for another year, according to sources.  A senior Western European diplomat said the extension will be “formalized next week” ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius.  Stoltenberg has been NATO chief since 2014 and has had mandate extended several times.  He has maintained he was not actively seeking to stay in the position and would have left in September, when he was due to step down. Officials have said Stoltenberg will bring needed stability and experience to the alliance by staying as leader as the Ukraine war continues.  Politico

Sweden May Not Be Admitted to NATO Before Vilnius Summit.  Western officials say it is unclear if NATO will be able to convince Turkey to back Sweden’s bid to join the alliance before the Vilnius summit next month.  Officials say NATO has accelerated efforts to get Ankara’s approval, but the Turkish government maintains that while Sweden has made progress with its new terrorism law, Turkey still has concerns about continued activity of groups it deems as terrorist organizations in Sweden.  Beyond security issues, the recent protest at Stockholm’s central mosque that included a Koran burning will likely further complicate efforts.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday condemned the protest, saying Turkey would strongly respond to any provocation or threat and will “teach the arrogant Western people that it is not freedom of expression to insult the sacred values of Muslims.”  Swedish police approved the protest, but later arrested the man who carried out the Koran burning on the charge of agitating an ethnic or national group.  Bloomberg Reuters

EU Declares Support for Ukraine, Short of Membership or Full Security Guarantees.  European Union leaders met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss new ways to support Kyiv in its war against Russia.  The leaders announced a resolution to “stand ready and contribute, together with partners, to future security commitments to Ukraine.”  While a show of political solidarity, the move falls short of fulfilling Ukraine’s request for full membership and concrete security guarantees.  Despite this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still thanked EU leaders for the support, adding that membership negotiations must start “as soon as possible.”  Regarding the Wagner Group’s move to Belarus, he added that Ukraine “will not allow Russia or its terrorist groups to even try to undermine the security” of Lithuania or Poland from Belarus.  The EU has imposed sanctions over the Ukraine war and provided training missions for the Ukrainian military, as well as funding and weapons.  New York Times Ukrinform

UK Deportation of Asylum Seekers Ruled Unlawful.  A British court on Thursday ruled UK Prime Minister Rishi Sinai’s plan to deport tens of thousands of asylum seekers to Rwanda as unlawful.  Sunak’s government pushed the plan as part of efforts to deter migrants from crossing the English Channel from France into Britain.  The court argued against the plan since it ruled that Rwanda is not a safe third country to send asylum seekers to.  The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) had imposed an injunction preventing any deportation last year when the first deportation flight was scheduled.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Wagner Group Reportedly Will No Longer Fight in Ukraine.  Officials say that the Wagner Group will no longer fight in Ukraine following the Wagner mutiny and the exile of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus.  Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, said he had information that “Wagner will no longer participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine,” without elaborating.  Budanov signaled that this could potentially support Kyiv’s goals, saying that “the most effective Russian unit” is now out of the conflict.  In Russia, Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, likewise added that Wagner was told it would no longer fight in Ukraine and would not receive further funding from the Russian government over Prigozhin’s refusal to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.  He also said that he believes this sparked the Wagner mutiny.  CNN Politico Reuters 

General Surovikin Likely Arrested, U.S. Officials Say.  U.S. intelligence reports say that Russian General Sergei Surovikin has likely been arrested over the Wagner Group mutiny.  Russian news media has given conflicting reports on Surovikin, but officials say the Kremlin deflecting questions about him suggests he has been detained.  Still, officials say details are still unclear and reports are not conclusive as to whether he has been arrested or if he’s just being held for questioning.  The New York Times previously reported that Surovikin had knowledge of the Wagner uprising before it occurred.  U.S. intelligence is working to ascertain if Surovikin only knew about the mutiny or if he helped plan it.  A CNN report has found that Surovikin was a secret VIP member of the mercenary group, with documents showing that he had a personal registration number with Wagner, along with at least 30 other senior Russian military and intelligence officials.  If the documents are true, Surovikin and other top members of the Russian military may have a closer relationship to Wagner than previously known.  CNN New York Times

Ukraine’s Top General Calls for Support for Counteroffensive.  In a rare interview, Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s military, called on Western allies to give Kyiv more of every type of weapon to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  He underscored that Ukraine is being outshot by Russian forces tenfold at times due to a lack of resources.  He also emphasized frustration with the West’s delay in providing modern fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that the counteroffensive had to be launched without air superiority.  Zaluzhny added that it “pisses [him] off” when he hears comments that the counteroffensive is going slower than expected due to the dearth in Western military aid he describes.  He said the fight “is not a show” and that it is difficult to carry out the counteroffensive “without being fully supplied,” adding that if it is not progressing as quickly as “observers” want then “that is their problem.”  Washington Post

Ukraine Reports ‘Tough’ Fighting in Counteroffensive.  Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said that while Ukrainian forces are making overall progress in the counteroffensive, fighting is “tough.”  She said that in the south, Ukrainian troops advanced towards Berdiansk and Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region.  In the east, Ukrainian forces progressed 1,300 yards towards the village of Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region.

Her comments suggest Ukrainian goals of retaking Melitopol, which would split Russian-occupied territory in the south in two, and Bakhmut, which is near Klishchiivka.  Elsewhere, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Russian forces are attacking northern front lines between Lyman and Kupyansk.  CNN New York Times 

Ukraine Calls for Civilians to Leave Sumy Border Region.  The Ukrainian military is advising residents in the border area of the northern Sumy region to leave due to increased Russian shelling on the area.  The Sumy regional military administration said there is no threat of an invasion by Russian forces, but it acknowledged that shelling attacks on the border have “not stopped for a single day” and are increasing in intensity and frequency.  The Sumy region is 30 miles from the Russian border and was one of the first targets at the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022.  CNN

Putin Makes Rare Public Appearances.  Russian President Vladimir Putin made a series of rare public appearances this week.  On Wednesday Putin was filmed in the southern Russian city of Derbent meeting crowds, and on Thursday he attended a forum showcasing alternatives to Western products.  The public appearances are the first by Putin since the Wagner Group mutiny and marked the first time he has broken from social-distancing protocols he has observed since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.  The Kremlin and Russian state media have played up the encounters, attempting to portray Putin as present and still in control following the Wagner uprising.  New York Times

IMF, World Bank Approve Millions for Ukraine.  The International Monetary Fund on Thursday permitted Ukraine to withdraw $890 million for budget support, after the body finished its first review of Kyiv’s $15.6 billion loan program.  Ukraine has withdrawn around $3.6 billion through the program since it was launched on May 31.  The IMF said that in spite of "challenging conditions," Ukraine has managed to meet quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks for the aid. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF Managing Director, stated that the “Ukrainian people have been resilient, and the authorities' skillful policymaking and continued external support have helped support macroeconomic and financial stability” despite the “severe impact” that the Russian invasion has had on the nation. In November or early December, IMF plans on conducting its next review, and Ukraine must continue to meet requirements — such as fortifying its tax compliance, constructing a 2024 budget, fighting corruption, and strengthening governance — for further funding. IMF Ukraine mission chief Gavin Gray said that such measures are significant as it helps boost confidence for private investors and donors to further support Ukraine.  Separately, the World Bank said on Thursday that it has authorized a $1.5 billion loan to Ukraine, which is guaranteed by the government of Japan under the Advancing Needed Credit Enhancement for Ukraine Trust Fund.  The World Bank, which has mobilized more than $37.5 billion to aid Kyiv, said that the loan “will help provide relief to households and mitigate the impacts of Russia's invasion."  Reuters CNN World Bank

Prigozhin-Owned Social Media Network to Close.  The YaRus social network, which was created by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, will suspend operations on Friday.  The platform announced that it is closing “after careful analysis of the current situation,” referencing the aborted Wagner mutiny. YaRus was a large aggregator of Russian news and social content, claiming to circulate 70,000 pieces of content a day to over 11 million users.  It is unclear if Prigozhin’s other media interests, including the RIA/FAN news agency, will also close.  CNN

Satellite Imagery Shows Russia Causing Flooding Ahead of Ukraine Counteroffensive.  Satellite imagery shows Russian forces are using water obstacles to counter Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  Planet satellite imagery seen by Bellingcat, and first reported by the Center for Journalistic Investigations, suggests that Russia created a dam near the occupied Ukrainian city of Tomak in the Zaporizhzhia region ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  The dam appears to have been built to flood the area in case of an Ukrainian breakthrough.  Both Ukraine and Russia have reportedly relied on dams in the conflict, with Ukraine admitting to breaching dams in Demydiv and the Oskil reservoir to complicate Russian efforts.  However, Russia is suspected of fully destroying dams, including the Oskil dam.  The report on Tomak comes after the much more destructive Nova Kakhovka dam breach, which both Moscow and Kyiv blame each other for, though evidence suggests that Russian forces, who occupied the dam at the time of its collapse, destroyed it with explosives.  Bellingcat 

Satellite Imagery Shows Potential Wagner Activity at Belarus Military Base.  Satellite imagery of a disused military base in southern Belarus shows activity at the site, which could possibly be evidence that the Wagner Group has moved there.  The base is 13 miles from the town of Asipovichy, which is around 64 miles from the Belarusian capital Minsk.  Images of the base are low resolution, so it is unclear what is being built at the site, but experts say new structures there look like tents similar to those at other bases. While it has not been proven that Wagner units are the base, Russian media has previously speculated it could be used to house the mercenaries.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said earlier that he had given an abandoned military base to Wagner, without specifying its location.  BBC

Ukraine Holds Nuclear Disaster Drills Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.  Ukraine conducted nuclear disaster response drills near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Thursday.  Officials said the drills aimed to test medical response and evacuation procedures in the event of an “emergency situation” at the plant, adding that a nuclear disaster at the facility would impact an area “bigger than 50 kilometers.”  An Ukrainian deputy energy minister told reporters that results of the drills were positive and showed that Ukraine is “ready for the challenges” posed by Russia.  Kyiv has accused Moscow of planning a “terrorist” attack at the plant involving the release of radiation, which Russia has denied.  CNN Reuters

Sanctioned Russian Ships Make Over 100 Stops in Turkey.  The Wall Street Journal reports that sanctioned Russian cargo vessels made over 100 stops in Turkey since May of 2022. The ships had been sanctioned since the Russian invasion of Ukraine for their role in transporting weapons and supplies.  Turkey, which is the only NATO country to not impose sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war, has since served as a vital conduit for the Russian economy. The U.S. has been pressuring countries globally to cut the Russian military supply chain to prevent the flow of fresh arms and ammunition for the war in Ukraine. Instead, Turkey has leveraged the conflict to expand its influence in the Black Sea region and expand trade with Russia, while at the same time acting as a mediator to broker an agreement to ship Ukrainian grain. Reportedly, the Russian vessels had made stops at roughly two dozen port facilities on Turkey’s Black Sea coast, Mediterranean coast and Marmara coast.  In its report, The Wall Street Journal further examines the specific routes and methods Russia has used to mask movements of its civilian vessels to Turkey and other states in order to secretly supply its war effort.  Wall Street Journal

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan Reports 11 Chinese Warplanes Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line.  The Taiwanese defense ministry said 11 Chinese planes flew over the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait on Friday morning.  The ministry said the aircraft were part of a “joint war readiness patrol” that included 24 warplanes in total and five Chinese battleships. Taiwan deployed its own warships and aircraft and activated missile systems to warn away and monitor the Chinese incursion. A top Taiwanese security official told Reuters that this latest incursion was possibly in response to a visit to Taipei by a U.S. congressional delegation led by House Armed Services Committee chair Mike Rogers.  Reuters 

China Approves Foreign Relations Law to Counter Sanctions.  China has approved a sweeping Foreign Relations Law that enshrines Beijing’s legal right to take “countermeasures” against perceived threats to China’s “sovereignty, security and development issues.”  The law adds to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s authority to counter “Western containment” and includes pledges for Xi’s policy objectives in global security and development, as well as the “high-level opening-up” of the Chinese economy.  The measure comes in response to U.S. sanctions on Chinese businesses for alleged involvement in surveillance programs and support for Russia, U.S. export controls aimed at stemming China’s access to advanced chips, as well as wider Western moves to “de-risk” supply chains away from China.  China’s state-run news outlet Global Times said the law provides a “legal basis for the diplomatic struggle against sanctions” and is a “warning and deterrence against western hegemony.”  China’s top diplomat Wang Yi added that the new law will be a “deterrent” to sanctions and aims to counter “bullying” towards China.  Experts say the law does not add many new anti-sanction measures, but it does firmly promote Xi’s foreign policy objectives and control over national security matters.  CNN Financial Times South China Morning Post 

China’s New Anti-Espionage Law Coming Into Effect.  China’s revised Anti-Espionage Law comes into effect on Saturday, raising concerns amongst foreign businesses operating in China.  Chinese state media says the legislation aims to strengthen China’s national security by expanding the scope of espionage activities to “all documents, data, materials and articles” and expands the investigative power of authorities to access all property and electronic devices of suspects.  Foreign business leaders say the move heightens risks for business as it is vague about who it deems a suspect of espionage.  The new measure follows recent raids on U.S. business consultancies, all of which business leaders say counters China’s call for foreign investment.  Nikkei Asia 

Taiwan to Stage Military Drills at Main Airport for First Time.  Taiwan’s military says it is staging a military drill at the island’s main international airport, Taoyuan International Airport, for the first time next month.  The drill will take place on July 26 as part of Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang war games.  Taiwan’s defense ministry said the drill will practice defense of the airport, focusing on testing readiness to repel an airborne assault.  U.S. experts reportedly called for Taiwan to include the airport in military exercises due to the airport’s importance in a Chinese invasion.  Taoyuan airport would be a key facility China needs to capture to bring in supplies and reinforcements for an invasion.  The airport is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity to Zhuwei beach, a “red beach” that Chinese forces could target to establish a beachhead and land troops in an invasion.  South China Morning Post

Japanese Company to Start Repairing F-35 Fighter Jet Engines.  Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced on Thursday that Japanese engineering company IHI will start repairing engines of F-35 fighter jets used by both U.S. and Japanese forces.  IHI will repair F-35A and F-35B jets at its plant in Tokyo.  The ministry said the move will support F-35 operations in the region, which will increase military mobility, strengthen U.S.-Japan security ties, and support Japan’s domestic defense industry.  Experts say the move is also aimed at deterring aggressive neighbors in the region, namely China.  Nikkei Asia

Japan, South Korea Resume Currency Swaps.  Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho met on Thursday to formally revive a $10 billion currency swap deal between their countries. Japan and South Korea originally agreed on the deal in 2001, but it was never used and expired in 2015.  Choo told reporters that the swap line is not intended for immediate use but is a meaningful step towards building financial cooperation.  The agreement also underscores the thawing in relations between Tokyo and Seoul amid threats from China and North Korea.  The ministers also discussed the global economy, infrastructure investment and debt problems in developing countries, and broader financial cooperation.  Reuters  ABC News 

New South Korean Unification Minister.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has selected Kim Yung-ho, an outspoken critic of North Korean human rights abuses, as South Korea’s new unification minister, who manages relations with Pyongyang.  Kim Yung-ho has previously advocated for the “overthrow” of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s regime.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Europe to Maintain Ballistic Missile Sanctions on Iran.  EU officials said the bloc will maintain ballistic missile sanctions against Iran that were set to expire in October, as agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.  The sanctions “called upon” Iran not to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and prohibit the transfer of drones with ranges over 186 miles to and from Iran without U.N. Security Council approval, which it has not granted.  Sources said the sanctions will be kept due to Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine; the possibility that Iran could transfer ballistic missiles to Russia; and Iran’s violation of the nuclear deal with continued nuclear enrichment above agreed-upon levels.  Experts and Iranian officials say that Tehran has developed its nuclear and missile programs despite the sanctions.  However, the decision to keep the sanctions underscores Western efforts to maintain some nuclear limits on Iran despite stalled talks on reviving the 2015 deal, and it is notable since it marks the first significant act by the EU to step away from the deal.  Reuters

Israeli Mossad Service Claims it Captured Plot Leader in Iran, Thwarting Assault.  Israel reported on Thursday that its Mossad secret service performed an operation in Iran to capture the alleged organizer of a scheme to attack Israeli business professionals in Cyprus.  Mossad said that in the “unique operation on Iranian soil,” it detained “the head of the cell, who . . . gave a detailed confession that led to the exposure and dismantlement of the terrorist cell behind the Cyprus attack."  Mossad identified the suspect as Yousef Shahabazi Abbasalilu, who it said acted under the orders of top officials in Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.  It is unclear when Mossad captured him, where he is now, or when the terrorist attack in Cyprus was planned, though on Sunday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said an attack against Israeli citizens in Cyprus had been thwarted, without offering details.  Reuters 

Israel’s Netanyahu Cuts Part of Controversial Judicial Overhaul Plan.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he will no longer be seeking to grant Parliament the ability to overturn Supreme Court rulings, dropping a key part of his controversial judicial overhaul plan.  Additionally, Netanyahu has altered a portion of the bill that would have allowed the ruling coalition to have a decisive sway in appointing judges.  The original plan triggered mass protests in Israel and prompted warnings from the U.S. against major unilateral changes to the Israeli judiciary.  Netanyahu’s coalition has since begun work on a new bill that still aims to reduce the Supreme Court’s power to rule against the government.  Reuters

Anger Across Muslim World Over Stockholm Koran Burning.  There is widespread anger across the Muslim world in response to a recent protest at a Stockholm mosque during which a man burned a Koran.  The United Arab Emirates reportedly summoned the Swedish ambassador to protest the demonstration, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the Koran burning, and Morocco recalled its ambassador to Sweden for an indefinite period of time in response to the incident.  Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called the Koran burning “despicable” and said “it is unacceptable to allow these anti-Islamic actions under the pretext of freedom of expression.”  Additionally, dozens of Iraqis stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad over the demonstration, though they left shortly after local security forces were deployed to the scene.  Iran, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Yemen, and Syria have also criticized the protest. The United States condemned the incident but is still continuing to urge Turkey to back Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  AlJazeeraAlJazeera New York Times Reuters Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan’s RSF Releases 125 Army Soldiers.  The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reports that it assisted in the release of 125 Sudanese army soldiers held by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Thursday.  They were taken from Khartoum to Wad Madani after their release.  Another 14 wounded soldiers were released on Monday with the help of the ICRC in Darfur. Al Jazeera Associated Press

Cyber and Tech

Netherlands, U.S. Announce New Chip Controls Against China.  The Netherlands imposed new export controls to further restrict China from accessing chipmaking equipment from Dutch firm ASML Holding NV.  Under the new measures, ASML must apply for licenses to ship some advanced deep ultraviolet lithography, or DUV, systems, which are essential in semiconductor production.  ASML vowed to comply with the regulations, adding that it does not expect the measures to have a “material impact on our financial outlook” for 2023 or in the longer term.  The controls come amid U.S. pressure on the Netherlands and other countries to curb China’s chip industry.  A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the Netherlands condemned the restrictions as an “abuse of export control measures” and called on Amsterdam to “immediately correct its wrongdoings.”  Bloomberg BBC Reuters

South Korean Chip Executive Rejects Charges of Stealing Industrial Secrets for China.  A South Korean chip executive has denied charges of industrial espionage against Samsung Electronics on behalf of China.  South Korean authorities arrested Choi Jinseong in late May for allegedly illegally obtaining secret information to build a chip plant a mere 1 mile from a Samsung factory in Xian, China.  Prosecutors say the copycat chip plant would have been for Taiwan’s Foxconn and that it would focus on production of DRAM memory chips.  Choi’s lawyer says information for the factory is easily accessible non-sensitive data, and Choi added that the Samsung factory in Xian makes NAND flash memory chips, pointing out that processes and equipment for DRAM and NAND production are different.  He also claimed the new facility would have actually been in Qingdao.  Reuters 

Wagner-Affiliated Hackers Claim Hack of Russian Satellite Telecom Provider.  Unidentified hackers who say they are affiliated with the Wagner Group claimed on Wednesday to have hacked Dozor, a Russian satellite telecommunications provider.  Dozor services Russian electrical infrastructure, oil fields, the Russian military and Federal Security Service (FSB).  The group claims that in its cyberattack, “part of the satellite terminals failed” and “information on the servers was destroyed.”  The group later posted nearly 700 files of information supposedly taken from Dozor networks, including files that appear to show connections between Dozor and FSB.  Analysts say Dozor’s connection to the internet went down in the attack and remains unreachable.  In a seemingly unconnected incident, the group claimed it defaced Russian websites with pro-Wagner Group messages.  Experts say that while the hack and leak looks real, Wagner does not have the motive or history of such attacks.  Some have suggested the hack is an Ukrainian false flag operation.  CyberScoop

China’s Lead Chipmaker Warns of ‘Turmoil and Disarray.’  The acting CEO of Chinese memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) warned on Thursday that geopolitical tensions and national security concerns threaten to cause “turmoil and disarray” in the global semiconductor industry.  Speaking at the Semicon China chip industry conference in Shanghai, he warned that the “government intervention” and “political content” has led to the “destruction of globalization” in the chip industry, adding that chip policy is now about control and restricting developing countries.  He did not name any countries but appeared to reference U.S. export controls aimed at keeping advanced chips from China.  YMTC has been hit by such measures, which Chen alluded to saying that his company “can no longer procure parts… we had legally bought” and that there should be “fair rules to buy back the equipment.”  Nikkei Asia Reuters South China Morning Post

TSMC Sending Hundreds More Workers to Finish Arizona Chip Plant.  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) is sending several hundred additional Taiwanese workers to help complete its chip plant in Arizona, which will be the company’s first in the U.S. in over two decades.  Construction of the plant is behind schedule due to labor shortages and other issues, and construction has exceeded projected costs, according to TSMC.  The decision to send more workers to the plant underscores U.S. drive to onshore semiconductor production.  Nikkei Asia

U.S. Seeking Extradition of Detained Russian Cyber Expert from Kazakhstan.  Authorities in Kazakhstan arrested Russian cybersecurity expert Nikita Kislitsin last week at the request of the U.S.  Kislitsin was charged with selling login credentials of American users of the social media company Formspring in 2012.  The Russian government also charged Kislitsin on Wednesday for unauthorized access of protected computer information.  Now, both the U.S. and Russia are seeking his extradition from Kazakhstan.  If Kislitsin is sent to Russia, he could potentially evade U.S. charges, in line with past moves by Moscow to protect its nationals accused of malign cyber activity.  The Record

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief

Report for Friday, June 30, 2023

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Friday, June 30, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

U.S. Considers Sending Long-Range ATACMS to Ukraine.  Officials say the U.S. is considering sending the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine.  ATACMS rockets, which are fired from HIMARS launchers, have a range of around 190 miles, which could give Ukrainian forces the ability to hit Russian targets far behind the front lines.  The U.S. has yet to approve the transfer over concerns that Ukraine would use the system to hit targets within Russian territory.  However, officials say the U.S. is becoming more open to sending the system to bolster Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the coming weeks, especially following any potential impact of the Wagner Group mutiny on Russian forces.  Ukrainian sources have pushed for the ATACMS, in part to hit Russian-occupied Crimea, which Russia has reportedly used to launch Iranian-made drones.  Wall Street Journal

Biden Administration Considering Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine.  The Biden administration is reportedly considering authorizing the delivery of contentious cluster munition warheads to Ukraine to support its counteroffensive. A US official told CNN that "these would undoubtedly have a significant battlefield impact." A final decision is still expected from Washington, but the weapons could be included in a military aid package as soon as next month if approved. Ukraine has urged the US to transfer the controversial, landmine-like weapons for many months, but the White House has been unwilling to do so because of the danger they present to civilians. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have banned the weapons, which spread “bomblets” across large swaths of land that can fall to burst on impact, over humanitarian concerns.  The US has stockpiled large amounts of the weapons since phasing them out seven years ago. Both Moscow and Kyiv have utilized cluster munitions since the beginning of the conflict in 2022, and Ukraine has recently started using Turkish cluster munitions.  CNN Politico 

Pentagon Says U.S. State Dept Agreed to Two Potential Military Sales to Taiwan.  The Pentagon reported Thursday that the US State Department has authorized the potential sale of $440 million worth of logistics supply support and ammunition to Taiwan in two separate deals. The two proposed sales include a $332.2 million deal for 30mm ammunition, including training rounds, multi-purpose rounds, and high-explosive incendiary-tracer rounds, and a $108 million deal for a Blanket Order Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement.  Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that the sales would strengthen the island against China’s “severe” and escalating “threats of military and gray zone tactics."  Reuters US DoD DSCA US DoD DSCA

Former VP Pence Visits Ukraine.  Former U.S. Vice President, who is running for the Republican nomination for president in the 2024 election, made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Thursday.  Pence met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and visited nearby villages, including Bucha, during his trip.  Pence emphasized his support for Ukraine, telling reporters, "I have confidence a day will come when Ukraine's sovereignty will be restored," and that the "free world will not stand" for Russia's invasion.  Pence’s backing for Kyiv counters some other Republican presidential candidates who have questioned the amount of aid the U.S. should give Ukraine.  Separately, in remarks to CNN, Pence commented on the Wagner Group mutiny by saying it remains to be seen whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has full control of his troops.  CNN Reuters 

Pentagon Says Chinese Spy Balloon Did Not Gather Information While Over U.S. Territory.  A Pentagon spokesperson said on Thursday that the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down after flying across the country in February did not gather information during its flight.  The balloon flew over the U.S. from Alaska to South Carolina from late January to early February.  Its route took it over sensitive military installations, raising security concerns about Chinese surveillance.  The Chinese spy balloon incident severely impacted U.S.-China relations.  Reuters The Guardian 

Canada Under NATO Pressure to Boost Defense Spending.  Canada is facing pressure from NATO Allie’s to increase its defense spending, especially amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing assertiveness and emerging threats in the Arctic.  Currently, Canada’s defense spending is 1.29% of its GDP, well below the 2% target for NATO members and the 2.58% average for the alliance in 2022.  Canada is expected to pledge an increase in its defense budget when it releases a report on its military needs before the NATO summit in Vilnius, during which the alliance is expected to push Ottawa to increase defense spending.  In order to meet the NATO target, Canada would need to spend an additional C$13-C$18 billion ($9.8-$13.6 billion) per year for the next five years. However, there is still doubt in Canada’s will to supply its own military.  A Pentagon report leaked in April said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had told NATO officials that Canada would never meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target.  Reuters

China, Russia Look to Bolivia for Lithium.  The Bolivian government announced on Thursday that it has signed lithium agreements with Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom and China’s Citic Guoan Group.  The deal could be worth up to $1.4 billion and, per the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy Franklin Molina, eventually lead to the production of some 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.  Bolivia’s salt flats contain some of the world’s largest lithium resources at about 21 million tons.  Al Jazeera  Reuters

Western Europe

Stoltenberg to Remain NATO Chief for Another Year.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will stay on as head of the alliance for another year, according to sources.  A senior Western European diplomat said the extension will be “formalized next week” ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius.  Stoltenberg has been NATO chief since 2014 and has had mandate extended several times.  He has maintained he was not actively seeking to stay in the position and would have left in September, when he was due to step down. Officials have said Stoltenberg will bring needed stability and experience to the alliance by staying as leader as the Ukraine war continues.  Politico

Sweden May Not Be Admitted to NATO Before Vilnius Summit.  Western officials say it is unclear if NATO will be able to convince Turkey to back Sweden’s bid to join the alliance before the Vilnius summit next month.  Officials say NATO has accelerated efforts to get Ankara’s approval, but the Turkish government maintains that while Sweden has made progress with its new terrorism law, Turkey still has concerns about continued activity of groups it deems as terrorist organizations in Sweden.  Beyond security issues, the recent protest at Stockholm’s central mosque that included a Koran burning will likely further complicate efforts.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday condemned the protest, saying Turkey would strongly respond to any provocation or threat and will “teach the arrogant Western people that it is not freedom of expression to insult the sacred values of Muslims.”  Swedish police approved the protest, but later arrested the man who carried out the Koran burning on the charge of agitating an ethnic or national group.  Bloomberg Reuters

EU Declares Support for Ukraine, Short of Membership or Full Security Guarantees.  European Union leaders met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss new ways to support Kyiv in its war against Russia.  The leaders announced a resolution to “stand ready and contribute, together with partners, to future security commitments to Ukraine.”  While a show of political solidarity, the move falls short of fulfilling Ukraine’s request for full membership and concrete security guarantees.  Despite this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still thanked EU leaders for the support, adding that membership negotiations must start “as soon as possible.”  Regarding the Wagner Group’s move to Belarus, he added that Ukraine “will not allow Russia or its terrorist groups to even try to undermine the security” of Lithuania or Poland from Belarus.  The EU has imposed sanctions over the Ukraine war and provided training missions for the Ukrainian military, as well as funding and weapons.  New York Times Ukrinform

UK Deportation of Asylum Seekers Ruled Unlawful.  A British court on Thursday ruled UK Prime Minister Rishi Sinai’s plan to deport tens of thousands of asylum seekers to Rwanda as unlawful.  Sunak’s government pushed the plan as part of efforts to deter migrants from crossing the English Channel from France into Britain.  The court argued against the plan since it ruled that Rwanda is not a safe third country to send asylum seekers to.  The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) had imposed an injunction preventing any deportation last year when the first deportation flight was scheduled.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Wagner Group Reportedly Will No Longer Fight in Ukraine.  Officials say that the Wagner Group will no longer fight in Ukraine following the Wagner mutiny and the exile of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus.  Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, said he had information that “Wagner will no longer participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine,” without elaborating.  Budanov signaled that this could potentially support Kyiv’s goals, saying that “the most effective Russian unit” is now out of the conflict.  In Russia, Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, likewise added that Wagner was told it would no longer fight in Ukraine and would not receive further funding from the Russian government over Prigozhin’s refusal to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.  He also said that he believes this sparked the Wagner mutiny.  CNN Politico Reuters 

General Surovikin Likely Arrested, U.S. Officials Say.  U.S. intelligence reports say that Russian General Sergei Surovikin has likely been arrested over the Wagner Group mutiny.  Russian news media has given conflicting reports on Surovikin, but officials say the Kremlin deflecting questions about him suggests he has been detained.  Still, officials say details are still unclear and reports are not conclusive as to whether he has been arrested or if he’s just being held for questioning.  The New York Times previously reported that Surovikin had knowledge of the Wagner uprising before it occurred.  U.S. intelligence is working to ascertain if Surovikin only knew about the mutiny or if he helped plan it.  A CNN report has found that Surovikin was a secret VIP member of the mercenary group, with documents showing that he had a personal registration number with Wagner, along with at least 30 other senior Russian military and intelligence officials.  If the documents are true, Surovikin and other top members of the Russian military may have a closer relationship to Wagner than previously known.  CNN New York Times

Ukraine’s Top General Calls for Support for Counteroffensive.  In a rare interview, Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s military, called on Western allies to give Kyiv more of every type of weapon to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  He underscored that Ukraine is being outshot by Russian forces tenfold at times due to a lack of resources.  He also emphasized frustration with the West’s delay in providing modern fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that the counteroffensive had to be launched without air superiority.  Zaluzhny added that it “pisses [him] off” when he hears comments that the counteroffensive is going slower than expected due to the dearth in Western military aid he describes.  He said the fight “is not a show” and that it is difficult to carry out the counteroffensive “without being fully supplied,” adding that if it is not progressing as quickly as “observers” want then “that is their problem.”  Washington Post

Ukraine Reports ‘Tough’ Fighting in Counteroffensive.  Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said that while Ukrainian forces are making overall progress in the counteroffensive, fighting is “tough.”  She said that in the south, Ukrainian troops advanced towards Berdiansk and Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region.  In the east, Ukrainian forces progressed 1,300 yards towards the village of Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region.

Her comments suggest Ukrainian goals of retaking Melitopol, which would split Russian-occupied territory in the south in two, and Bakhmut, which is near Klishchiivka.  Elsewhere, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Russian forces are attacking northern front lines between Lyman and Kupyansk.  CNN New York Times 

Ukraine Calls for Civilians to Leave Sumy Border Region.  The Ukrainian military is advising residents in the border area of the northern Sumy region to leave due to increased Russian shelling on the area.  The Sumy regional military administration said there is no threat of an invasion by Russian forces, but it acknowledged that shelling attacks on the border have “not stopped for a single day” and are increasing in intensity and frequency.  The Sumy region is 30 miles from the Russian border and was one of the first targets at the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022.  CNN

Putin Makes Rare Public Appearances.  Russian President Vladimir Putin made a series of rare public appearances this week.  On Wednesday Putin was filmed in the southern Russian city of Derbent meeting crowds, and on Thursday he attended a forum showcasing alternatives to Western products.  The public appearances are the first by Putin since the Wagner Group mutiny and marked the first time he has broken from social-distancing protocols he has observed since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.  The Kremlin and Russian state media have played up the encounters, attempting to portray Putin as present and still in control following the Wagner uprising.  New York Times

IMF, World Bank Approve Millions for Ukraine.  The International Monetary Fund on Thursday permitted Ukraine to withdraw $890 million for budget support, after the body finished its first review of Kyiv’s $15.6 billion loan program.  Ukraine has withdrawn around $3.6 billion through the program since it was launched on May 31.  The IMF said that in spite of "challenging conditions," Ukraine has managed to meet quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks for the aid. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF Managing Director, stated that the “Ukrainian people have been resilient, and the authorities' skillful policymaking and continued external support have helped support macroeconomic and financial stability” despite the “severe impact” that the Russian invasion has had on the nation. In November or early December, IMF plans on conducting its next review, and Ukraine must continue to meet requirements — such as fortifying its tax compliance, constructing a 2024 budget, fighting corruption, and strengthening governance — for further funding. IMF Ukraine mission chief Gavin Gray said that such measures are significant as it helps boost confidence for private investors and donors to further support Ukraine.  Separately, the World Bank said on Thursday that it has authorized a $1.5 billion loan to Ukraine, which is guaranteed by the government of Japan under the Advancing Needed Credit Enhancement for Ukraine Trust Fund.  The World Bank, which has mobilized more than $37.5 billion to aid Kyiv, said that the loan “will help provide relief to households and mitigate the impacts of Russia's invasion."  Reuters CNN World Bank

Prigozhin-Owned Social Media Network to Close.  The YaRus social network, which was created by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, will suspend operations on Friday.  The platform announced that it is closing “after careful analysis of the current situation,” referencing the aborted Wagner mutiny. YaRus was a large aggregator of Russian news and social content, claiming to circulate 70,000 pieces of content a day to over 11 million users.  It is unclear if Prigozhin’s other media interests, including the RIA/FAN news agency, will also close.  CNN

Satellite Imagery Shows Russia Causing Flooding Ahead of Ukraine Counteroffensive.  Satellite imagery shows Russian forces are using water obstacles to counter Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  Planet satellite imagery seen by Bellingcat, and first reported by the Center for Journalistic Investigations, suggests that Russia created a dam near the occupied Ukrainian city of Tomak in the Zaporizhzhia region ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.  The dam appears to have been built to flood the area in case of an Ukrainian breakthrough.  Both Ukraine and Russia have reportedly relied on dams in the conflict, with Ukraine admitting to breaching dams in Demydiv and the Oskil reservoir to complicate Russian efforts.  However, Russia is suspected of fully destroying dams, including the Oskil dam.  The report on Tomak comes after the much more destructive Nova Kakhovka dam breach, which both Moscow and Kyiv blame each other for, though evidence suggests that Russian forces, who occupied the dam at the time of its collapse, destroyed it with explosives.  Bellingcat 

Satellite Imagery Shows Potential Wagner Activity at Belarus Military Base.  Satellite imagery of a disused military base in southern Belarus shows activity at the site, which could possibly be evidence that the Wagner Group has moved there.  The base is 13 miles from the town of Asipovichy, which is around 64 miles from the Belarusian capital Minsk.  Images of the base are low resolution, so it is unclear what is being built at the site, but experts say new structures there look like tents similar to those at other bases. While it has not been proven that Wagner units are the base, Russian media has previously speculated it could be used to house the mercenaries.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said earlier that he had given an abandoned military base to Wagner, without specifying its location.  BBC

Ukraine Holds Nuclear Disaster Drills Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.  Ukraine conducted nuclear disaster response drills near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Thursday.  Officials said the drills aimed to test medical response and evacuation procedures in the event of an “emergency situation” at the plant, adding that a nuclear disaster at the facility would impact an area “bigger than 50 kilometers.”  An Ukrainian deputy energy minister told reporters that results of the drills were positive and showed that Ukraine is “ready for the challenges” posed by Russia.  Kyiv has accused Moscow of planning a “terrorist” attack at the plant involving the release of radiation, which Russia has denied.  CNN Reuters

Sanctioned Russian Ships Make Over 100 Stops in Turkey.  The Wall Street Journal reports that sanctioned Russian cargo vessels made over 100 stops in Turkey since May of 2022. The ships had been sanctioned since the Russian invasion of Ukraine for their role in transporting weapons and supplies.  Turkey, which is the only NATO country to not impose sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war, has since served as a vital conduit for the Russian economy. The U.S. has been pressuring countries globally to cut the Russian military supply chain to prevent the flow of fresh arms and ammunition for the war in Ukraine. Instead, Turkey has leveraged the conflict to expand its influence in the Black Sea region and expand trade with Russia, while at the same time acting as a mediator to broker an agreement to ship Ukrainian grain. Reportedly, the Russian vessels had made stops at roughly two dozen port facilities on Turkey’s Black Sea coast, Mediterranean coast and Marmara coast.  In its report, The Wall Street Journal further examines the specific routes and methods Russia has used to mask movements of its civilian vessels to Turkey and other states in order to secretly supply its war effort.  Wall Street Journal

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan Reports 11 Chinese Warplanes Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line.  The Taiwanese defense ministry said 11 Chinese planes flew over the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait on Friday morning.  The ministry said the aircraft were part of a “joint war readiness patrol” that included 24 warplanes in total and five Chinese battleships. Taiwan deployed its own warships and aircraft and activated missile systems to warn away and monitor the Chinese incursion. A top Taiwanese security official told Reuters that this latest incursion was possibly in response to a visit to Taipei by a U.S. congressional delegation led by House Armed Services Committee chair Mike Rogers.  Reuters 

China Approves Foreign Relations Law to Counter Sanctions.  China has approved a sweeping Foreign Relations Law that enshrines Beijing’s legal right to take “countermeasures” against perceived threats to China’s “sovereignty, security and development issues.”  The law adds to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s authority to counter “Western containment” and includes pledges for Xi’s policy objectives in global security and development, as well as the “high-level opening-up” of the Chinese economy.  The measure comes in response to U.S. sanctions on Chinese businesses for alleged involvement in surveillance programs and support for Russia, U.S. export controls aimed at stemming China’s access to advanced chips, as well as wider Western moves to “de-risk” supply chains away from China.  China’s state-run news outlet Global Times said the law provides a “legal basis for the diplomatic struggle against sanctions” and is a “warning and deterrence against western hegemony.”  China’s top diplomat Wang Yi added that the new law will be a “deterrent” to sanctions and aims to counter “bullying” towards China.  Experts say the law does not add many new anti-sanction measures, but it does firmly promote Xi’s foreign policy objectives and control over national security matters.  CNN Financial Times South China Morning Post 

China’s New Anti-Espionage Law Coming Into Effect.  China’s revised Anti-Espionage Law comes into effect on Saturday, raising concerns amongst foreign businesses operating in China.  Chinese state media says the legislation aims to strengthen China’s national security by expanding the scope of espionage activities to “all documents, data, materials and articles” and expands the investigative power of authorities to access all property and electronic devices of suspects.  Foreign business leaders say the move heightens risks for business as it is vague about who it deems a suspect of espionage.  The new measure follows recent raids on U.S. business consultancies, all of which business leaders say counters China’s call for foreign investment.  Nikkei Asia 

Taiwan to Stage Military Drills at Main Airport for First Time.  Taiwan’s military says it is staging a military drill at the island’s main international airport, Taoyuan International Airport, for the first time next month.  The drill will take place on July 26 as part of Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang war games.  Taiwan’s defense ministry said the drill will practice defense of the airport, focusing on testing readiness to repel an airborne assault.  U.S. experts reportedly called for Taiwan to include the airport in military exercises due to the airport’s importance in a Chinese invasion.  Taoyuan airport would be a key facility China needs to capture to bring in supplies and reinforcements for an invasion.  The airport is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity to Zhuwei beach, a “red beach” that Chinese forces could target to establish a beachhead and land troops in an invasion.  South China Morning Post

Japanese Company to Start Repairing F-35 Fighter Jet Engines.  Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced on Thursday that Japanese engineering company IHI will start repairing engines of F-35 fighter jets used by both U.S. and Japanese forces.  IHI will repair F-35A and F-35B jets at its plant in Tokyo.  The ministry said the move will support F-35 operations in the region, which will increase military mobility, strengthen U.S.-Japan security ties, and support Japan’s domestic defense industry.  Experts say the move is also aimed at deterring aggressive neighbors in the region, namely China.  Nikkei Asia

Japan, South Korea Resume Currency Swaps.  Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho met on Thursday to formally revive a $10 billion currency swap deal between their countries. Japan and South Korea originally agreed on the deal in 2001, but it was never used and expired in 2015.  Choo told reporters that the swap line is not intended for immediate use but is a meaningful step towards building financial cooperation.  The agreement also underscores the thawing in relations between Tokyo and Seoul amid threats from China and North Korea.  The ministers also discussed the global economy, infrastructure investment and debt problems in developing countries, and broader financial cooperation.  Reuters  ABC News 

New South Korean Unification Minister.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has selected Kim Yung-ho, an outspoken critic of North Korean human rights abuses, as South Korea’s new unification minister, who manages relations with Pyongyang.  Kim Yung-ho has previously advocated for the “overthrow” of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s regime.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Europe to Maintain Ballistic Missile Sanctions on Iran.  EU officials said the bloc will maintain ballistic missile sanctions against Iran that were set to expire in October, as agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.  The sanctions “called upon” Iran not to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and prohibit the transfer of drones with ranges over 186 miles to and from Iran without U.N. Security Council approval, which it has not granted.  Sources said the sanctions will be kept due to Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine; the possibility that Iran could transfer ballistic missiles to Russia; and Iran’s violation of the nuclear deal with continued nuclear enrichment above agreed-upon levels.  Experts and Iranian officials say that Tehran has developed its nuclear and missile programs despite the sanctions.  However, the decision to keep the sanctions underscores Western efforts to maintain some nuclear limits on Iran despite stalled talks on reviving the 2015 deal, and it is notable since it marks the first significant act by the EU to step away from the deal.  Reuters

Israeli Mossad Service Claims it Captured Plot Leader in Iran, Thwarting Assault.  Israel reported on Thursday that its Mossad secret service performed an operation in Iran to capture the alleged organizer of a scheme to attack Israeli business professionals in Cyprus.  Mossad said that in the “unique operation on Iranian soil,” it detained “the head of the cell, who . . . gave a detailed confession that led to the exposure and dismantlement of the terrorist cell behind the Cyprus attack."  Mossad identified the suspect as Yousef Shahabazi Abbasalilu, who it said acted under the orders of top officials in Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.  It is unclear when Mossad captured him, where he is now, or when the terrorist attack in Cyprus was planned, though on Sunday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said an attack against Israeli citizens in Cyprus had been thwarted, without offering details.  Reuters 

Israel’s Netanyahu Cuts Part of Controversial Judicial Overhaul Plan.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he will no longer be seeking to grant Parliament the ability to overturn Supreme Court rulings, dropping a key part of his controversial judicial overhaul plan.  Additionally, Netanyahu has altered a portion of the bill that would have allowed the ruling coalition to have a decisive sway in appointing judges.  The original plan triggered mass protests in Israel and prompted warnings from the U.S. against major unilateral changes to the Israeli judiciary.  Netanyahu’s coalition has since begun work on a new bill that still aims to reduce the Supreme Court’s power to rule against the government.  Reuters

Anger Across Muslim World Over Stockholm Koran Burning.  There is widespread anger across the Muslim world in response to a recent protest at a Stockholm mosque during which a man burned a Koran.  The United Arab Emirates reportedly summoned the Swedish ambassador to protest the demonstration, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the Koran burning, and Morocco recalled its ambassador to Sweden for an indefinite period of time in response to the incident.  Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called the Koran burning “despicable” and said “it is unacceptable to allow these anti-Islamic actions under the pretext of freedom of expression.”  Additionally, dozens of Iraqis stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad over the demonstration, though they left shortly after local security forces were deployed to the scene.  Iran, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Yemen, and Syria have also criticized the protest. The United States condemned the incident but is still continuing to urge Turkey to back Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  AlJazeeraAlJazeera New York Times Reuters Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan’s RSF Releases 125 Army Soldiers.  The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reports that it assisted in the release of 125 Sudanese army soldiers held by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Thursday.  They were taken from Khartoum to Wad Madani after their release.  Another 14 wounded soldiers were released on Monday with the help of the ICRC in Darfur. Al Jazeera Associated Press

Cyber and Tech

Netherlands, U.S. Announce New Chip Controls Against China.  The Netherlands imposed new export controls to further restrict China from accessing chipmaking equipment from Dutch firm ASML Holding NV.  Under the new measures, ASML must apply for licenses to ship some advanced deep ultraviolet lithography, or DUV, systems, which are essential in semiconductor production.  ASML vowed to comply with the regulations, adding that it does not expect the measures to have a “material impact on our financial outlook” for 2023 or in the longer term.  The controls come amid U.S. pressure on the Netherlands and other countries to curb China’s chip industry.  A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the Netherlands condemned the restrictions as an “abuse of export control measures” and called on Amsterdam to “immediately correct its wrongdoings.”  Bloomberg BBC Reuters

South Korean Chip Executive Rejects Charges of Stealing Industrial Secrets for China.  A South Korean chip executive has denied charges of industrial espionage against Samsung Electronics on behalf of China.  South Korean authorities arrested Choi Jinseong in late May for allegedly illegally obtaining secret information to build a chip plant a mere 1 mile from a Samsung factory in Xian, China.  Prosecutors say the copycat chip plant would have been for Taiwan’s Foxconn and that it would focus on production of DRAM memory chips.  Choi’s lawyer says information for the factory is easily accessible non-sensitive data, and Choi added that the Samsung factory in Xian makes NAND flash memory chips, pointing out that processes and equipment for DRAM and NAND production are different.  He also claimed the new facility would have actually been in Qingdao.  Reuters 

Wagner-Affiliated Hackers Claim Hack of Russian Satellite Telecom Provider.  Unidentified hackers who say they are affiliated with the Wagner Group claimed on Wednesday to have hacked Dozor, a Russian satellite telecommunications provider.  Dozor services Russian electrical infrastructure, oil fields, the Russian military and Federal Security Service (FSB).  The group claims that in its cyberattack, “part of the satellite terminals failed” and “information on the servers was destroyed.”  The group later posted nearly 700 files of information supposedly taken from Dozor networks, including files that appear to show connections between Dozor and FSB.  Analysts say Dozor’s connection to the internet went down in the attack and remains unreachable.  In a seemingly unconnected incident, the group claimed it defaced Russian websites with pro-Wagner Group messages.  Experts say that while the hack and leak looks real, Wagner does not have the motive or history of such attacks.  Some have suggested the hack is an Ukrainian false flag operation.  CyberScoop

China’s Lead Chipmaker Warns of ‘Turmoil and Disarray.’  The acting CEO of Chinese memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) warned on Thursday that geopolitical tensions and national security concerns threaten to cause “turmoil and disarray” in the global semiconductor industry.  Speaking at the Semicon China chip industry conference in Shanghai, he warned that the “government intervention” and “political content” has led to the “destruction of globalization” in the chip industry, adding that chip policy is now about control and restricting developing countries.  He did not name any countries but appeared to reference U.S. export controls aimed at keeping advanced chips from China.  YMTC has been hit by such measures, which Chen alluded to saying that his company “can no longer procure parts… we had legally bought” and that there should be “fair rules to buy back the equipment.”  Nikkei Asia Reuters South China Morning Post

TSMC Sending Hundreds More Workers to Finish Arizona Chip Plant.  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) is sending several hundred additional Taiwanese workers to help complete its chip plant in Arizona, which will be the company’s first in the U.S. in over two decades.  Construction of the plant is behind schedule due to labor shortages and other issues, and construction has exceeded projected costs, according to TSMC.  The decision to send more workers to the plant underscores U.S. drive to onshore semiconductor production.  Nikkei Asia

U.S. Seeking Extradition of Detained Russian Cyber Expert from Kazakhstan.  Authorities in Kazakhstan arrested Russian cybersecurity expert Nikita Kislitsin last week at the request of the U.S.  Kislitsin was charged with selling login credentials of American users of the social media company Formspring in 2012.  The Russian government also charged Kislitsin on Wednesday for unauthorized access of protected computer information.  Now, both the U.S. and Russia are seeking his extradition from Kazakhstan.  If Kislitsin is sent to Russia, he could potentially evade U.S. charges, in line with past moves by Moscow to protect its nationals accused of malign cyber activity.  The Record

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