Report for Friday, June 21, 2024

The Top Stories

Israel’s military leaders fear they are stuck in a forever guerrilla war

Russia hammers Ukraine’s power grid again; Ukraine strikes 4 Russian oil refineries 

5 top challenges for Mark Rutte, NATO’s next secretary-general

Putin warns South Korea against sending lethal weapons to Ukraine

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Ex-CENTCOM Leader On Iran Threat – and the Mission He Led to Kill an Iranian Commander. The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

White House chides Netanyahu but underscores ‘ironclad commitment’ to Israel.  White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday that the White House has expressed “deep disappointment” to Israel about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s video statement Tuesday accusing Washington of failing to supply Israel with sufficient arms. "There's no other country that's done more or will continue to do more than the United States to help Israel defend itself," Kirby said. CBS News reported Thursday that U.S. officials, baffled by Netanyahu's remarks, traced them back to IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, who believed that the U.S. was slow-walking delivery of some small items such as aircraft spare parts. The U.S. officials said there's been no such delay, except for one shipment of 2,000-pound bombs that President Joe Biden ordered withheld because he didn’t want them used in Rafah, a densely populated city full of refugees. Netanyahu didn’t back down. "I am ready to suffer personal attacks provided that Israel receives from the U.S. the ammunition it needs in the war for its existence,” he said in a statement issued Thursday. Meanwhile, in Washington, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and assured them of the U.S.’s “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.” Reuters  CBS News  ABC News State Department 

Israel’s military leaders fear they’re stuck in a forever guerilla war.  Israeli military commanders thought they could call Hamas defeated when they took Rafah and dismantled Hamas’s last battalions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies have other ideas. That’s why tensions between Netanyahu and the military have burst into the open, according to an analysis published Thursday by The Wall Street Journal.   Defining defeat has been a major point of conflict between the military and the civilian politicians: an Israeli military official told the Journal the army considers a Hamas battalion “dismantled” when its command structure and capacity to organize an attack was eliminated. This week, military officials announced they were close to hitting both goals. But Netanyahu has persisted in promising “total victory” and defining dismantling as something closer to annihilation. Since he refused to decide on a credible day-after plan with a strong non-Hamas governing body, military leaders feared they would be forced to occupy Gaza indefinitely, harried by sporadic attacks. “The idea that we can destroy Hamas or make Hamas disappear is misleading to the public,” military spokesman Daniel Hagari told Israeli television Wednesday.  Another military official told the Journal, “We are getting close to finishing the job defined by the government, and we’ll reach a point when we’re just fighting guerrilla warfare, and that could take years.”  Wall Street Journal 

The pier is back. The U.S. military's floating pier, removed Friday because of rough seas, has been reattached to the Gaza shore and is back in action as a landing zone for humanitarian aid arriving by sea, the Pentagon said Thursday. Pentagon officials said some 656 metric tons of aid, or 1.4 million pounds, was delivered to the marshaling yard by the pier Thursday. However, tons of aid have piled up in the marshaling yard because the U.N. has not organized transport to warehouses. Reuters

Israeli Military Says Hamas Can’t Be Destroyed, Escalating Feud With Netanyahu. A rift between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the military leadership has surfaced after military spokesman Daniel Hagari said the goal of destroying Hamas in Gaza is unrealistic. Hagari’s statement contradicts Netanyahu's aim of "total victory" over Hamas. Netanyahu insists on eradicating Hamas as a military and governing power, rejecting various proposals for alternatives, including involving the Palestinian Authority or a unity government. This dispute highlights long-standing tensions between Netanyahu and military officials, who believe defeating Hamas would require a new governing authority in Gaza. The conflict, which has killed over 37,000 people in Gaza, continues despite calls for a cease-fire from international leaders and growing pressure on Israeli forces. Wall Street Journal

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine's use of US-supplied weapons in Russia is not limited to near Kharkiv, Pentagon says. According to the Pentagon, Ukraine can use U.S.-supplied weapons to target Russian forces firing across the border, not just near Kharkiv. This policy, authorized by President Biden, allows Ukraine to defend itself against Russian attacks from any location. Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder emphasized that this self-defense measure is focused on responding to Russian forces firing into Ukraine. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan reiterated that Ukraine could also use air-defense systems against Russian planes attacking from Russian airspace. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine says its drones struck four Russian oil refineries in major attack. In a major operation, Ukrainian long-range attack drones targeted four Russian oil refineries and military sites early Friday, hitting Afipsky, Ilsky, Krasnodar, and Astrakhan refineries, which fuel Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, considered legitimate military targets. Russia reported downing numerous drones over various regions. Kyiv's military also struck radar stations, intelligence centers, and drone launch sites. The damage complicates Russia's fuel logistics, increasing costs and delivery times. This drone assault follows Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's power grid, which have caused significant damage since March. Reuters  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's 24th brigade bolsters defense of Chasiv Yar, says fighting 'extremely difficult.’ Ukraine's 24th separate mechanized brigade has been redeployed to strengthen the defense of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, facing relentless and difficult fighting. After capturing Avdiivka, Russian forces target Chasiv Yar due to its strategic elevation, aiming to penetrate the region further. The city endures constant assaults and attempts by Russian troops to encircle it by capturing nearby villages. Ukrainian forces have damaged Russian units and equipment but have also suffered losses. Russian attacks include the use of guided aerial bombs and multiple-launch rocket systems with thermobaric munitions.Kyiv Independent 

Russia obliterates Ukraine’s frontline towns faster with hacked bombs and an expanded airbase network. Russia is using retrofitted Soviet-era glide bombs to devastate eastern Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. These cheap, adapted bombs are launched from an expanding network of airstrips near the border, making them hard for Ukraine to counter. The bombs have caused extensive damage, turning cities into ruins and causing widespread casualties. Ukrainian officials highlight that Russia launches over 3,000 bombs monthly, with more than 50 strikes hitting Kharkiv this year alone. Despite sanctions, Russia continues to retrofit and use these bombs, leveraging its air superiority to advance on the ground. The destruction aims to terrorize and depopulate the cities, though residents like Nina Korsunova and store manager Oleksandr Lutsenko vow to stay and defend their homes. Associated Press

EU leaders will back more military aid to protect Ukraine’s power grid, document shows. European Union leaders plan to increase military aid to Ukraine to counter Russian attacks on power stations, according to a draft statement. They will call for more air defense systems, ammunition, and missiles to protect Ukraine's population and energy infrastructure. Additionally, EU leaders are expected to approve using frozen Russian assets to provide approximately €50 billion in loans to support Ukraine's military, budget, and reconstruction needs. This aid is crucial as Russian strikes have damaged Ukraine's power generation, leading to widespread blackouts and dependency on the EU for electricity. Politico

Russia hammers Ukraine’s power grid again and Kyiv’s drones target more enemy oil depots. Russia resumed air attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, using missiles and drones to damage energy facilities in multiple regions, Ukrainian authorities said Thursday.  The attack hit power structures in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia regions of Ukraine, causing “extensive damage,” according to national power company Ukrenergo. Seven workers were injured.Ukrenergo announced extended blackouts across the country despite electricity imports and help with emergency supplies from European countries. Ukraine, in response, launched drone strikes on Russian oil depots, triggering fires at facilities supplying the Russian military. Both sides aim to disrupt each other’s military capabilities as the war persists. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the strikes were aimed at Ukrainian energy facilities that are needed to produce weapons and military equipment. Ukraine, heavily dependent on Western military aid, is developing a small but fast-growing defense industry. Associated Press 

Navigating through darkness: Ukraine’s emergency blackouts return after Russia pounds infrastructure. Kyiv is experiencing rolling blackouts due to Russian attacks that have damaged half of Ukraine's power generation capacity. Residents and businesses are adapting with generators, power banks, and flashlights. The blackouts are causing significant disruptions, such as traffic jams and difficulties in daily activities. Despite efforts to import electricity and attract foreign investment, Ukraine's ability to meet winter energy demands is uncertain. Small businesses like cafes struggle to operate, resorting to alternative customer service methods. The situation is expected to worsen by winter, prompting preparations for a challenging season. Associated Press 

Russian troops fail to advance as Ukraine garners military, financial aid. Ukraine and Russia remain in a stalemate, with Russia failing to advance in eastern Ukraine and losing ground in Kharkiv. Ukraine recaptured positions southwest of Vovchansk and the settlement of Tykhe. Meanwhile, Ukraine signed security agreements with Japan and the US, securing significant military and financial aid. Russia has signed a strategic partnership with North Korea, including potential military cooperation. Despite extensive international military agreements and aid for Ukraine, NATO is considering making support to Kyiv mandatory. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities and air defense systems continue, highlighting ongoing tensions and military actions on both sides. Aljazeera

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, June 20, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea and Vietnam aimed to sabotage Ukraine's allies' efforts to form a unified strategy against Russia. Putin implicitly threatened nuclear weapon use if the West enabled Ukraine's decisive defeat of Russia, part of his campaign to dissuade allies from helping Kyiv. South Korea may reconsider its ban on sending lethal military aid to Ukraine after the Russia-North Korea agreement. Russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time,  representing a new Russian capability with a high potential for destruction if Russian forces continue to be able to use such weapons uninhibited. Russia's reliance on infantry-heavy tactics has reduced the operational effectiveness of its forces. Russian military bloggers criticized the military command for failing to incentivize servicemen and explain the invasion's purpose.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces advanced near Vovchansk, while Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

Ukraine claims to be winning its war on corruption. The West says: Do more. Ukraine claims progress in battling corruption, with high-profile arrests and new anti-corruption bodies. However, Western allies, including the US, argue that more efforts are needed to secure continued military and economic aid. Tensions are rising as Kyiv's anti-corruption measures face scrutiny, impacting aid packages. While Ukraine insists that the rise in corruption cases reflects increased effectiveness, Western officials remain critical, citing the need for stronger regulatory environments and transparency. Washington Post

Putin says a strategic defeat on battlefield would end Russia's statehood. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the West aims to strategically defeat Russia in Ukraine, which he claims would mean “the end of its statehood.” He expressed readiness for negotiations but rejected any talks requiring a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. “That will never happen,” he said. Putin's ceasefire conditions, including Ukrainian withdrawal from regions claimed by Russia, were dismissed by Kyiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Switzerland are considering involving Russia in future peace talks, with China and Brazil proposing an alternative peace conference. Kyiv Independent

Russia says its forces used the FAB-3000 glide bomb for the first time. On Thursday, Russian forces allegedly used a FAB-3000 high-explosive aerial bomb in an attack on Kharkiv Oblast, marking its first reported combat deployment. A pro-Kremlin blogger shared a video purportedly showing the strike on a Ukrainian military target in Liptsy. Previously, Russian forces had used a FAB-1500 bomb in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry announced the mass production of FAB-3000 bombs in March. Thursday’s strike reportedly caused damage despite not directly hitting the target. Kyiv Independent

Treason trial for US citizen accused of donating to Ukraine begins in Russia. The treason trial of Ksenia Karelina, a U.S.-Russian dual national accused of raising funds for the Ukrainian military, began on June 20 in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Karelina, a 33-year-old Los Angeles resident, was arrested during a visit to her grandparents and charged with treason for donating $51.80 to Razom for Ukraine. Her trial is held behind closed doors, with the next hearing set for August 7. Karelina faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian hackers claim responsibility for cyberattack on Russian banks, payment system. Ukraine's IT Army claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Russian banks and the Mir payment system on Thursday, rendering services "non-functional." Targeted banks included VTB, Alfa-Bank, Gazprombank, and Sberbank. The attack, possibly the largest DDoS attack in history, disrupted services and peaked around 2 p.m. local time before being repelled. Mir's usage surged after Visa and Mastercard withdrew from Russia post-2022 invasion. A previous attack disrupted Moscow and Kazan's public transport payment systems. Kyiv Independen

AMERICAS

Low chance of China-Russia military teamwork leading to direct attack on US: Rand report. A Rand Corporation report indicates that while China and Russia might increase military cooperation, a direct attack on the US is unlikely due to high potential costs. The report suggests that deeper Sino-Russian integration will likely involve more joint training and technology sharing but will fall short of a full strategic partnership. China’s "no first use" nuclear policy and the distinct military doctrines of both countries limit their coordination. The report recommends that the US focus on strengthening alliances rather than attempting to drive a wedge between China and Russia, as such efforts might backfire. South China Morning Post

Biden bans US sales of Kaspersky software over Russia ties. On Thursday, the Biden administration announced plans to ban the sale of Kaspersky antivirus software in the U.S., citing security risks due to its ties with Russia. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo highlighted concerns that the software could allow Russian interference and data theft from American computers. Kaspersky has denied these claims, attributing the decision to geopolitical tensions. The new rules will take effect on September 29, blocking Kaspersky software sales, updates, resales, and licensing. Additionally, the U.S. will list three Kaspersky units under trade restrictions, aiming to curb potential Russian cyber threats amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Reuters

Deluge of ‘pink slime’ websites threaten to drown out truth with fake news in US election. Political groups are creating fake news websites resembling local news sources to fill the void left by closing newspapers, raising concerns about their impact on the 2024 US election. NewsGuard reports over 1,265 such sites, often politically biased, outnumbering the remaining 1,213 daily newspapers. These sites, funded by political groups, distort facts and manipulate readers with emotionally charged issues. While both left and right-wing networks use these tactics, the right has more sites, and the left focuses on strategic visibility. Experts call for better social media regulation and media literacy to counter misinformation and restore trust in local news. The Guardian

Blinken reveals Biden administration set to provide Haiti with almost $110 million in security aid. The Biden administration will allocate almost $110 million in security and police aid to Haiti, circumventing a hold on the funds imposed by Republican lawmakers. Secretary of State Antony Blinken decided to proceed after over 100 briefings to Congress, emphasizing the urgent need to address the violent gang situation in Haiti. The funding includes $95 million for security mission support and $15 million for the Haitian National Police to combat gang violence. Key Republicans on foreign relations committees expressed their disappointment with the decision, having previously placed holds on the funds, seeking more details. The aid is crucial for the deployment of Kenyan police forces to help alleviate the severe violence, which is disrupting food supplies and displacing hundreds of thousands in Haiti. The administration has the authority to override congressional holds in extreme situations. Reuters

Venezuela’s main opposition abstains from signing agreement vowing to respect election results.Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and seven other candidates signed an agreement on Thursday promising to respect the results of the upcoming July elections. However, the nation’s main opposition abstained because the government had violated a previous agreement. The National Electoral Council (CNE), the country’s highest electoral authority, presented the nine-point agreement. The council is reportedly affiliated closely with Venezuela's ruling party. Opposition candidates Edmundo Gonzalez and Enrique Marquez did not sign, with Gonzalez accusing the government of rescinding an invitation to E.U. observers and increasing persecution of opposition figures. Leading in polls, Gonzalez claimed he received no summons from the CNE. Maduro emphasized the importance of respecting the agreement and supporting the CNE. Reuters

EUROPE

5 challenges for NATO’s next chief Mark Rutte. NATO’s next secretary-general, Mark Rutte, will face at least five major challenges when he takes over by Oct. 1. They include: 

Trump's Possible Return: NATO skeptic Donald Trump's potential re-election could undermine U.S. aid to Ukraine and NATO's plans for Ukraine's future membership.

Putin's Winter Attack on Ukraine: Rutte will need to assist Ukraine as Russia ramps up strikes on its energy infrastructure, requiring more air defense systems.

Getting NATO Members to Pay Up: Despite progress, a third of the 32 NATO allies, especially Southern European nations, still fail to meet the 2% GDP defense spending target.

Eastern Flank Grievances: Eastern European countries feel underrepresented in NATO's top roles and may demand better representation in secondary positions.

Europe's Vladimir Putin-Loving Leaders: The rise of far-right, NATO-skeptic parties in Europe, like in France and the Netherlands, could challenge maintaining NATO's cohesion. Politico

EU sanctions target Russian gas for the first time, diplomats say. The European Union agreed on a 14th sanctions package against Russia, including the first restrictions on Russian gas, targeting re-exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in EU waters. The package does not ban imports but sanctions three Russian LNG projects and allows Sweden and Finland to cancel Russian LNG contracts. The measures aim to deny Russia access to key technologies, reduce energy revenues, and tighten controls on the shadow fleet moving Russian oil. The sanctions list expands to 47 new entities and 69 individuals, with formal approval expected from EU foreign ministers on Monday. Reuters RFE/RL 

German trade focus could pivot from China to US. Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck is set to visit Beijing to reinforce commercial ties with China. However, trade experts suggest a shift towards a stronger U.S.-German relationship due to economic and geopolitical factors. In early 2024, U.S.-German trade volumes surpassed those with China. German exports to China decreased by 14% in May, while exports to the U.S. rose by 4.1%. Challenges in China's economy may lead Germany to rely more on the U.S. as a key trading partner. The shift away from China is part of Germany's broader strategy to reduce trade dependence on China and strengthen ties with other partners. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Tired Lebanese citizens bracing for conflict after Hezbollah threats, rising tensions.Lebanese nationals are reluctantly readying themselves for a potential conflict with Israel after Hezbollah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, issued new threats against Israel and Cyprus. Nasrallah's remarks about Cyprus being drawn into the conflict surprised many, as the small island nation has denied taking sides. Though many Lebanese citizens express a sense of resignation as well as strong solidarity with Gaza, lots view Hezbollah's conflict with Israel as another setback following the devastation of COVID-19, the 2020 Beirut blast, and an ongoing economic crisis. People face the constant threat of Israeli strikes, which have disrupted family trips and increased costs, and many are preparing for sudden displacement. About 90,000 Lebanese have already fled their homes in the south, some relocating within Lebanon and others to shelters in cities like Sidon. Reuters

Syrian general acquitted of war crimes by Swedish court. A Stockholm court acquitted Brigadier General Mohammed Hamo, a former Syrian officer, of war crimes charges related to Syria's civil war in 2012. Hamo was accused of "aiding and abetting" attacks in Hama and Homs, but the court found insufficient evidence to prove his division's involvement or his role in supplying weapons. Despite recognizing the Syrian government’s actions as war crimes, the prosecution struggled to gather evidence due to the ongoing conflict. Hamo, who fled Syria in 2012 and sought asylum in Sweden in 2015, was arrested in 2021. The prosecution has not yet decided on an appeal. Deutsche Welle

ASIA & OCEANIA

Putin warns South Korea: Sending killer weapons to Ukraine would be a ‘big mistake.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin warned South Korea that sending lethal weapons to Ukraine would be a "big mistake," following Seoul's consideration of arming Kyiv. This announcement comes after Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact. Putin made these remarks during a visit to Vietnam, emphasizing that South Korea would not like the repercussions. Seoul has previously only provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine, constrained by its Foreign Trade Act. The potential shift to supplying weapons would mark a significant change in South Korea’s policy, as its arms have only reached Ukraine indirectly via third countries. Politico

Putin, in  Vietnam, seeking a new 'security architecture' for Asia.During a state visit to Vietnam on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his goal of building a "reliable security architecture" in the Asia-Pacific region. This visit, which followed a mutual defense agreement with North Korea, has been criticized as a defiant gesture against the West. Hanoi and Moscow signed 11 agreements and memorandums of understanding, underscoring Russia's turn to Asia following Western sanctions. The Kremlin-backed TASS news agency quoted Putin as saying that the two nations were committed to "developing a reliable security architecture," avoiding the use of force, and resolving disputes with peace. Putin also criticized NATO's presence in Asia. Despite concerns from the West, experts suggest that Vietnam's hosting of Putin is unlikely to result in long-term negative consequences due to the U.S.'s strategic interests in the region and Hanoi’s position as a key actor in the world’s economy. Reuters RFE/RL 

South Korean troops fire shots at North’s soldiers after they breach military demarcation line.  For at least the third time this month, the South Korean military has fired shots after North Korean soldiers crossed the Military Demarcation Line in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). According to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), South Korean troops on Thursday morning fired warning shots at Northern soldiers, who swiftly retreated. This incident, which occurred around 11 a.m. local time, represents a rare increase in activity near the demarcation line despite occasional deadly clashes since the end of the Korean War in 1953. The latest breach follows Russian President Vladimir Putin's first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years. In a separate development, Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, condemned South Korean activists for sending balloons with leaflets into North Korea. This has heightened tensions, as North Korea retaliated by sending balloons filled with trash. She did not address the troop incident. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24 

South Korea lodges protest with Russian ambassador over treaty with North Korea. On Friday, the South Korean foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador, Georgy Zinoviev, to protest a recent pact between Russia and North Korea. First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun expressed Seoul's concerns to Zinoviev, stating that Russia's military support for North Korea threatens South Korea's security and could negatively impact Seoul-Moscow relations. Kim urged Russia to act responsibly. The Russian Embassy in Seoul responded, stating that their cooperation with North Korea is not aimed at any third country. Reuters CNN Associated Press

PLA study suggests China’s Fire Dragon missiles could sink US warships. A study by China's People’s Liberation Army suggests that Fire Dragon 480 missiles, exported to the UAE, could sink U.S. Ticonderoga-class cruisers. The simulation indicated that six missiles, with support from drone swarms, could destroy a large U.S. warship. Despite the advanced U.S. defense systems, the study found that coordinated attacks could overwhelm them. The Fire Dragon 480 is a precision-guided, long-range missile capable of high-velocity impact. The study highlights the need for technological upgrades to maximize the missile's potential. The U.S. is gradually retiring Ticonderoga-class cruisers in favor of newer ships. South China Morning Post 

Chinese President Xi visits Tibetans and temple in western China, calls for ethnic unity. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Qinghai province, emphasizing national unity and the sinicization of Tibetan Buddhism. At Golok Tibetan middle school and Hongjue Temple, Xi highlighted the importance of education, religious management, and ethnic cohesion. He urged provincial leaders to enhance Qinghai's role in clean energy, ecotourism, and green exports. Xi's visit comes amid rising US-China tensions over Tibet, following the US Congress passing a Tibet policy bill. The trip also marks Xi's ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with ethnic minorities and preserve ecological security on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. South China Morning Post

China says the Philippines rammed Chinese boats, attacked personnel in Second Thomas Shoal stand-off. Beijing has countered Manila's allegations of aggression during a standoff at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, asserting that Philippine vessels deliberately rammed Chinese boats, carried weapons, and attacked Chinese personnel. The Monday incident occurred when Chinese boats intercepted a Philippine vessel on a resupply mission to troops stationed at the disputed shoal. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian claimed that the Philippine operation was not humanitarian, accusing Philippine forces of escalating tensions by splashing water and throwing objects at Chinese personnel. Manila released footage showing Chinese personnel deploying tear gas and damaging equipment. The Philippine military described the event as aggressive, with eight sailors injured. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV released images of the Philippine supply boat surrounded by Chinese vessels. Beijing urged the Philippines to stop provocations or face consequences, defending its actions as lawful and restrained. South China Morning Post 

Philippine business groups make rare statement amid South China Sea tensions. Philippine business groups issued a rare joint statement condemning the harassment of the country's military by the Chinese coast guard in the South China Sea. They called for a non-violent resolution and urged the government to modernize the military and coastguard. This follows a clash that injured a navy sailor and damaged vessels. The Philippine foreign ministry labeled China’s actions as "illegal and aggressive," while China defended its measures as lawful. Reuters 

Vietnam open to discussions with Philippines about Manila's U.N. maritime claim.  Vietnam on Friday expressed its willingness to engage in discussions with the Philippines to find mutually beneficial measures after Manila filed a claim with the U.N. last week for an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea. A foreign ministry spokesperson reaffirmed the nation’s sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, in line with international law. Vietnam and the Philippines are among the countries disputing China's extensive claims over the South China Sea, a crucial global trade route with significant oil, gas, and fish resources. Hanoi emphasized the need for coastal states to respect the rights and interests of neighboring countries when submitting continental shelf boundaries. Reuters 

Asian Fears Come True as North Korea’s Russia Pact Amplifies Threat. The recent mutual defense agreement between North Korea and Russia has intensified security concerns in Japan and South Korea, both U.S. allies already wary of North Korea's ballistic missiles and nuclear arsenal. The pact, made during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang, pledges military support if either nation goes to war. This move is seen as a threat to international efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear advancements and has spurred calls in South Korea for a reevaluation of its reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The agreement highlights the growing autocratic alliance between Russia, North Korea, and China. South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken conferred by phone Thursday.  Both condemned thetreaty as a serious threat to regional peace and stability.  New York Times  Reuters

ANALYSIS-Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China. The Russia-North Korea mutual defense pact has heightened regional tensions and poses a new challenge for China. This agreement, which commits both nations to immediate military assistance, risks prompting the U.S. and its allies to bolster their military presence around China. While China has aimed to project itself as a peaceful nation, the pact underscores a growing trilateral axis with Russia and North Korea that Beijing has tried to avoid. Analysts suggest the alliance could push China to stabilize ties with South Korea and prevent a deepening alignment between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo against China. New York Times 

Despite fentanyl crackdown, Chinese sellers are open for business. Despite a renewed joint crackdown by the US and China, Chinese sellers of chemicals used in fentanyl production remain active. After a brief pause following the Xi-Biden agreement in November, sellers resumed operations, tweaking customs labels and switching to alternative compounds. Sellers claim business has continued largely unhindered, highlighting the challenge for U.S. officials seeking to curb fentanyl production. Chinese sellers have adapted to enforcement efforts, and shipments to Mexico have resumed. The trade persists due to limited local oversight and the high demand, with sellers using creative online advertising and disguising shipments to evade detection. Washington Post 

China reveals new guidelines threatening death penalty for Taiwan separatists. China has announced new guidelines threatening the death penalty for "diehard" Taiwan independence separatists, although Chinese courts have no jurisdiction over the self-governing island. The guidelines, announced on Friday, call for severe punishment for those accused of “splitting the country” and provoking secession in accordance with existing legislation like the 2005 anti-secession law, which provides a legal basis for military action if Taiwan secedes or appears to be seceding. An official from Beijing’s Ministry of Public Security said that "the sharp sword of legal action will always hang high" and affirmed that the maximum penalty for secession is death. The Taiwanese government has not responded formally, though an official mentioned they are reviewing the guidelines. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, whom China has labeled a separatist, has offered to hold talks with Beijing, but all attempts have been rejected. Measures like these threats have limited practical impact on Taipei due to China's lack of jurisdiction in Taiwan. Reuters 

U.S. and China hold first informal nuclear talks in 5 years, eyeing Taiwan. The U.S. and China held semi-official nuclear arms talks in March, the first in five years, focusing on Taiwan. Chinese representatives assured that they would not use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan, confident in their conventional military capabilities. Despite frustrations, both sides plan to continue talks in 2025. These Track Two discussions, involving former officials and academics, aim to mitigate nuclear tensions amid strained U.S.-China relations. The U.S. raised concerns about China's expanding nuclear arsenal and its no-first-use policy, while China emphasized its deterrence-based modernization efforts to counter U.S. advancements. Reuters 

Australia aims for dialogue between Chinese defense chiefs to limit military incidents.Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said Friday that his country wants to restart the annual dialogue with China's chief of defense to reduce misunderstandings between the militaries. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese discussed this matter with Premier Li Qiang in Canberra this week.  Albanese said on Monday aftermeeting Li that the two countries would take steps to improve military communication to avoid incidents. Reuters 

Philippines want probe of U.S. propaganda campaign casting doubt on Chinese Covid vaccines. Lawmakers in the Philippines want an investigation into what they say is a secret U.S. military propaganda operation that aimed to cast doubt among Filipinos about China’s vaccines during the height of the COVID pandemic. A Reuters investigation last week detailed how the Pentagon ran a clandestine influence campaign in 2020 and 2021 to discredit the Sinovac vaccine and other pandemic aid from China. Reuters 

Violence may be pushing Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar into Bangladesh. The intensifying conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine state has potentially forced some Rohingya Muslims to flee into Bangladesh, although Dhaka maintains that it cannot take in any more refugees. The Rohingya have faced long-term persecution in Myanmar, with a significant number escaping to Bangladesh following a military crackdown in 2017. Recent reports indicate that some Rohingya have managed to cross into Bangladesh, increasing the nearly one million already in refugee camps in Cox's Bazar. About 70,000 Rohingya are believed to be trapped in the town of Maungdaw, with exit routes blocked. Bangladesh's foreign and interior ministries have not changed their policy on accepting more Rohingya refugees despite the ongoing crisis. Some Maungdaw residents have fled to nearby villages due to fears of air strikes and artillery attacks as the powerful ethnic Arakan Army (AA) advances. Reuters

AFRICA

Somalia requests peacekeepers slow down withdrawal as fears mount over Islamist, al Shabaab resurgence.The Somalian government has requested that the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a peacekeeping force, delay its withdrawal from the nation to prevent a security vacuum as fears grow concerning the reemergence of al Shabaab insurgents. The peacekeeping force is set to withdraw by December 31st, but Somalia asked to postpone the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops due to leave by the end of June until September. The E.U. and the U.S., major funders of the AU force, aim to reduce the operation due to financial concerns. Despite confidence from Somalia's government, recent setbacks, including a significant and brutal defeat in the town of Cowsweyne, have raised doubts about the Somali army's readiness to defend the nation against groups like the al Qaeda offshoot. The government has projected that the new force should not exceed 10,000 troops, reflecting nationalist sentiments against the heavy presence of foreign military. Uganda and Kenya, contributors to the peacekeeping force, share concerns about prematurely withdrawing troops and express worries that Somalia’s army could sustain a long-term conflict. Somalia's security has relied on foreign resources since Ethiopia's 2006 invasion. Reuters

Malawi president appoints new deputy following fatal plane crash that killed predecessor.  Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera has named Michael Usi as the new vice president following the death of former Vice President Saulos Chilima in a plane crash on June 10, which also killed nine others. Chilima had been anticipated to challenge Chakwera in the upcoming presidential election. Michael Usi, previously the Minister of Natural Resources and Climate Change and a close ally of Chilima, will be sworn in as vice president on Friday. Reuters 

Canada’s Barrick Gold rejects UNHRC allegations of human rights abuses at Tanzanian mine.  Canadian mining company Barrick Gold, in a letter to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), rejected allegations of human rights violations at its North Mara Gold Mine in Tanzania as "misdirected” and  “unfounded.” The UNHRC had previously sent a letter to Barrick in April detailing reports of killings, assaults, torture, and sexual abuse at the mine, allegedly involving security forces and private security contractors. The UNHRC letter cited 12 deaths linked to security operations at the mine, with six allegedly tied directly to Barrick's activities; last week, Human Rights Watch reported that Tanzanian police had been connected to the killing of at least six people and injury of several others since February. Barrick clarified that North Mara Gold Mine Limited, the mine's owner and operator, is separate. The gold miner also stated that UNHRC representatives did not visit the site or engage with Tanzanian authorities and emphasized that its private security provider, SGA, is unarmed. In 2022, Barrick faced several lawsuits over alleged violence by security forces at North Mara. The UNHRC has not yet responded to Reuters' request for comment. Reuters Human Rights Watch

CYBER & TECH

Chinese chip makers escalating capacity as fears of additional U.S. sanctions grow. Chinese semiconductor foundries, including SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor Group, are significantly increasing their capacity amid concerns over potential additional US tech sanctions. Although these Chinese chip makers are technologically behind leaders like TSMC and Samsung, they are heavily investing to meet the demand for legacy chips used in cars and consumer electronics. This year, China-based foundries' capacity is expected to grow by 15% and by another 14% next year; consequently, Beijing is projected to account for about 30% of the world's total wafer capacity by next year. China's aggressive investment aims to mitigate the impact of US export controls, with several chip makers expanding their operations, including Nexchip, SiEn, and ChangXin Memory Technologies. This surge in investment has raised concerns about overcapacity, particularly as the Biden administration plans to impose tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including a 50% hike on semiconductor imports from China starting next year. China's push for self-sufficiency has reduced its reliance on imports, with a 10.8% year-on-year decrease in integrated circuits (ICs) imports in 2023. Local foundries have benefited from the Asian giant’s localization drive, with higher capacity utilization rates than global peers. Hua Hong Semiconductor is operating at full capacity and plans to raise prices by 10% in the year's second half. High customer demand has led some foundry lines to run at full capacity, with price adjustments aiming to alleviate profit pressures rather than indicating a full recovery in demand. South China Morning Post

Nvidia loses position as world's most valuable company to Microsoft after 3% drop. Nvidia's shares fell by nearly 3.4% on Thursday, causing it to lose its position as the world's most valuable company to Microsoft. Nvidia's market capitalization dropped to $3.34 trillion, a loss of around $91 billion, while Microsoft's market value slipped to $3.30 trillion after a 0.4% decline in its share price. Apple, with a market cap of $3.22 trillion, also saw a decrease in its shares by 2.2%. On Wednesday, Elon Musk announced that Dell and Super Micro are supplying server racks for his xAI startup's supercomputer, Grok, which uses Nvidia chips. This caused Dell and Super Micro shares to fall by 1% and 0.7%, respectively. Nvidia's chips are essential for AI applications, with Musk stating that training for Grok 2 used 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, and future models would require 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips. Nvidia's stock has nearly tripled in value this year, significantly boosting the broader market. Super Micro shares have also more than tripled, while Dell's stock is up by nearly 95%. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index has risen by nearly 34% since April, reaching a lifetime high on Tuesday. Analysts predict AI technology will further strengthen major tech companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Dell, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Google over the coming years. Reuters

Apple searching for Chinese partner amid Beijing’s ban on OpenAI. Apple is seeking a Chinese partner to integrate AI services into its products, as Western AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT are unavailable in the country. Despite recent AI advancements showcased in the U.S., Apple faces challenges in China, its second-largest iPhone market. The company fell to third place in handset market share in China, trailing behind local brands. Apple has engaged in discussions with Chinese AI firms such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Baichuan AI, but regulatory constraints, which require government approval for AI models, complicate the company’s plans. Chinese regulators have not approved foreign-developed AI products, prompting Apple to increase talks with local partners. Beijing’s tech companies are also expanding their AI capabilities, with Huawei expected to increase its market share from 13% to 17%, while Apple’s share is projected to decline from 18% to 16%. Apple’s revenue from the region, including mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau, accounted for 18% of its global revenue in the last quarter. Samsung’s approach to integrating generative AI in China offers a precedent for Apple. The South Korean tech giant partnered with Baidu and Meitu for AI features in its Galaxy S24 series because Google's AI was unavailable in China. While Baidu's AI received mixed reviews, its Chinese-language capabilities were praised. Apple's longstanding economic contributions to China, including job creation and local manufacturing, have afforded it a privileged market position. However, rising Chinese patriotism and targeting of U.S. companies pose potential risks to Apple’s future in the market. Wall Street Journal

“Unmoored from reality:” TikTok lambasts U.S. for its position on sale or ban. TikTok has filed a court brief arguing that the Biden administration's law mandating the sale or ban of TikTok is unconstitutional and driven by political motives. The law requires TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell its U.S. operations by January 19 or face a nationwide ban, which TikTok claims violates the First Amendment. The video app presented internal documents from failed negotiations with the government, highlighting a 100-page proposal for a national security agreement that included extensive oversight and a nationwide kill switch, which the administration rejected without clear reasons. The Chinese tech giant asserts that the forced sale would be technically and financially unfeasible within the given timeframe and would effectively result in a ban. TikTok argued that to block Americans from the app would be to adopt a restrictive online experience comparable to China’s own suppressive internet environment, legislation which U.S. lawmakers have consistently denounced. The company also questioned why the law unfairly targets TikTok while ignoring similar risks other tech companies pose. The legal battle could significantly impact online speech and tech legislation, with potential outcomes ranging from upholding the law and impacting millions of users to overturning it and challenging congressional authority. TikTok's brief includes expert declarations supporting its arguments and criticizes the government’s reliance on speculative threats. The appeals court is expected to rule by December 6, potentially leading to a Supreme Court review before the law takes effect. Washington Post

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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