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Friday, June 2, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

U.S. Senate Agrees to Debt Ceiling Deal, Averts Historic Default.  The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan deal to lift the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, narrowly avoiding what would have been a first-ever default.  The Senate voted 63-36 to approve the bill.  President Joe Biden said he will sign the deal into law as soon as possible.  The agreement came days before the U.S. was set to be unable to pay all its bills on June 5.  Reuters Associated Press 

U.S. Stops Key Nuclear Weapon Information Sharing With Russia.  The U.S. State Department confirmed Thursday that the U.S. has ceased sharing some information about its nuclear forces with Russia under the New START nuclear arms control treaty.  The department said the U.S. will not provide status and locations of nuclear missiles and launchers to Russia, but that it will continue to notify Russia about any launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.  Telemetric data from such launches will not be provided to Moscow. The department added that the move is part of “lawful countermeasures” in retaliation for Russia's decision to suspend acceptance of U.S. inspections of Russian nuclear sites under the agreement in response to U.S. support for Ukraine.  The U.S. had in turn canceled visas and diplomatic clearance for Russian inspectors of American nuclear sites.  Despite the curtailing of information sharing under New START, both sides say they will continue to adhere to caps on nuclear weapons under the agreement and Moscow has said it will also continue to notify Washington about any Russian ballistic missile launches.  Al Jazeera 

Blinken Says U.S. Wants ‘Just and Lasting Peace’ for Ukraine.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that Washington is seeking a “just and lasting peace” to the Ukraine war.  Speaking in Finland, Blinken said that the U.S. welcomes efforts by other countries “whether by Brazil, China, or any other nation” to achieve an end to the conflict as long as proposals uphold the UN Charter; respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence; and include the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.  He added that while the U.S. works for an end to the war, it will continue to militarily support Ukraine and build a “Ukrainian military of the future” — which includes a modern air force, integrated air and missile defenses, advanced armored vehicles, and a strengthened domestic defense industry — to ensure that Kyiv can deter and defend against future aggression.  Blinken also said that the war has been a “strategic failure” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Associated Press Reuters 

Spacex's Starlink Wins Pentagon Contract For Ukraine Satellite Services.  The Pentagon announced Thursday that it has awarded a contract to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communications service to provide satellite services for Ukraine.  SpaceX has provided Starlink services to Ukrainian troops for military communications through private donations and a separate contract with a U.S. foreign aid agency.  The Department of Defense contract will boost SpaceX’s ability to provide Ukraine access to Starlink services, which SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said costs $20 million a month to do so.  The Pentagon did not disclose further terms of the contract for security reasons.  Russia has attempted to block Starlink in Ukraine as part of efforts to cut Ukrainian internet services, but SpaceX has strengthened its service’s software to counter such attacks.  Bloomberg Reuters

U.S. Wants Japanese TNT for Ukrainian Artillery Shells.  The U.S. is reportedly seeking to buy TNT from Japan to use in 155mm artillery shells for the Ukrainian military.  Japanese law prohibits Japanese companies from exporting lethal items, but sources say the U.S. has found a workaround for this restriction: industrial TNT can be sold to the U.S. as it is a dual-use product, which has less export limitations than a military-use-only product.  Therefore, a Japanese company would be permitted to enter a TNT supply chain with the U.S. that supplies U.S. army-owned munitions plants that produce the artillery shells . The Japanese government has not said if a Japanese business has said it is interested in selling the TNT to the U.S.  The potential sale pushes Japan’s refusal to provide others with lethal military aid and adds to its recent retreat from state pacifism over regional security concerns, ranging from Taiwan to North Korea.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Mexico Plans to Launch an Asylum Processing App Next Week.  Mexico is launching an asylum processing app next week to deal with a record breaking number of asylum seekers in Mexico.  Mexican authorities say the uptick in asylum seekers is likely due to new U.S. immigration rules which bar asylum-seekers protection if they enter through other countries without seeking asylum there first.  The new app has similarities to the U.S. Custom and Border Patrol’s processing app, but can critically be used in Mexican territory.  CNN

Western Europe

Biden Confident that Sweden will Soon Join NATO. Speaking at the US Air Force Academy Graduation, US President Joe Biden told audience members that he is confident that Sweden will soon join NATO, despite Hungry and Turkey blocking their membership. This comes several days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Turkey to approve Sweden’s NATO bid, with hopes that it will be approved before NATO’s July summit.  Al Jazeera CNN

British Defense Minister Says ‘Path is Open’ to Ukraine NATO Membership.  British Defense Minister Ben Wallace on Friday said that the “path is open” for Ukraine to join NATO.  However, he reiterated the position by Western leadership that Ukraine cannot join the alliance while in the middle of a war.  Because of this, Wallace said the “best thing” to do now is to continue to militarily support Ukraine “to help them defeat Russia” and ensure that the country is “ready and capable and resilient.”  He added that security assurances, ranging from mutual defense pacts to arms deals, should also be considered as part of a plan for Ukraine’s NATO membership.  Reuters

Kremlin Warns Against Ukraine NATO Membership, Says Europe Knows Risks.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday said that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be a “potential problem for many, many years” and that efforts to have Kyiv enter the alliance would show that Kyiv is not interested in negotiating an end to current hostilities.  Peskov added that while many EU countries are aware of the consequences of Ukraine’s NATO membership bid, the U.S. will make the final decision, saying that Washington “orders and pays for the tunes in NATO” and that European members are “simply an obedient instrument in this orchestra.”  Peskov reiterated that Russia will act accordingly to achieve its interests and security, including in regards to the expansion of NATO and “its direct approach to our borders.”  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Kyiv Forces Defeat 6th Russian Air Assault in 6 Days.  Ukrainian officials say that Russia launched yet another barrage of missiles and drones on Kyiv and across Ukraine early Friday.  Ukrainian forces in Kyiv say the city’s air defenses downed 15 cruise missiles and 21 drones targeting the capital.  Officials said the attack, which marked the sixth Russian air assault on Kyiv in 6 days, did not cause damage or casualties in the city, though authorities outside of Kyiv said falling debris injured two people.  Elsewhere in Ukraine, two Russian missiles hit an industrial area that officials called a “civilian enterprise” with no links to the military near the northeastern city of Kharkiv.  One person was reportedly injured in that attack.  CNN Deutsche Welle Reuters 

Russia Reports Further Drone Attacks, Shelling, Incursions in Western Border Regions.  The governor of Russia’s western Belgorod region claims that Ukrainian shelling there killed two civilians on Friday.  The Freedom of Russia Legion, an anti-Putin Russian paramilitary group, added that they are fighting inside the Belgorod region near the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.  Elsewhere, Russian officials claim that Ukrainian shelling hit residential areas in the Bryansk region and that Russian air defenses downed drones attacking the Kursk region.  Russian-installed officials also said that Ukrainian shelling injured nine people in the Russian-occupied port city of Berdyansk in southeastern Ukraine.  The UK Defense Ministry said Friday that such reported attacks on Russia’s western border regions has forced the Russian military to choose between fortifying positions in occupied Ukrainian territory or within Russia’s own borders.  Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle France 24 Kyiv Independent Reuters Yahoo News

Chinese Envoy Calls for End to Weapons Supply to Ukraine War.  China’s Ukraine envoy, Li Hui, is urging all governments to “stop sending weapons to the battlefield” in Ukraine and is calling for peace negotiations.  Li made the call during a Europe tour aimed at encouraging a ceasefire and dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, though his efforts have not produced much progress.  Li told reporters on Friday that China, which has moved to present itself as a mediator in the conflict despite ties with Russia, is considering “sending another delegation to relevant countries” to continue to promote Ukraine peace talks.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters

Top US General Says F-16s, Tanks Long-Term Aid, Not for Counteroffensive.  U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said Thursday that advanced U.S. Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets will be part of long-term military aid for Ukraine and will not be ready for the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive.  Milley noted that Ukrainian troops have started training on the Abrams tanks but said that the training will take time.  The training is time to allow the U.S. to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine by this fall.  Milley added that work on finalizing agreements and logistics to secure F-16 transfers to Kyiv will take even longer.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Washington Post

Chechen Forces Launch Offensive in Eastern Ukraine.  Russia’s Defense Ministry on Friday announced that the “Akhmat” Chechen special forces group launched an offensive near the town of Mariinka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.  Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov had previously said on Thursday his group was preparing for a counteroffensive.  Akhmat, along with the Wagner Group, have been major players in Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, though they have openly argued and clashed.  Al Jazeera

Prigozhin Petitions Investigation of Top Russian Military Officials.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder and head of Russia’s Wagner Group, said that he asked Russian prosecutors on Wednesday to investigate whether or not Russian defense officials had carried out any crimes before or during the Ukraine war. This appeal is Prigozhin’s most direct challenge to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, President Putin’s highest-ranking military officers and leaders of war operations. For many months, Prigozhin has criticized and insulted the two leaders, though neither man has publicly acknowledged his disparagement. His challenge to the Russian military leadership follows his criticism last week that Russian state media has blocked coverage of him and Wagner.  Reuters 

US Lawyer Appointed Prosecutor Investigating Kosovo War Crimes. Kimberly West, an American lawyer, was appointed to be the chief prosecutor investigating war crimes in Kosovo, according to an announcement made Friday from the prosecutor’s office. West is replacing Jack Smith, who stepped down in November to join the US Justice Department to oversee the investigation into former President Donald Trump’s potential misuse of classified documents. West currently works at a law firm in Boston and was previously part of a UN team that prosecuted former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic for war crimes related to Yugoslavia.  Associated Press

Asia

Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore Begins.  The Shangri-La Dialogue security summit began on Friday in Singapore. Increased tensions between the United States and China are expected to be the main topic of discussion at the meeting.  Attendees include U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu — who snubbed a request for a one-on-one meeting with Austin — as well as their counterparts from the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Ukraine, along with other top officials.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke at the opening of the summit, saying that he supported the Biden administration’s efforts to open up channels of communication with China to maintain the “pressure valve of dialogue” to avoid the devastating consequences of a breakdown in US-China relations.  Albanese added that Australia is moving to improve relations with China while maintaining military cooperation with the U.S. and other allies to boost deterrence and resilience in the region.  His comments likely resonate with many countries seeking to navigate US-China competition and balance concerns about Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific with economic ties with Beijing.  Politico NPR Reuters South China Morning Post 

US Seeks UN Meeting on North Korea’s Satellite Launch Attempt.  The U.S. has requested a live-streamed UN Security Council meeting on Friday to discuss North Korea’s failed satellite launch on Wednesday. An envoy with the U.N. reported that Britain, France, Japan, Ecuador, Albania, and Malta jointly made the call for the meeting.  The U.S. has denounced the attempted satellite launch, which aimed to put North Korea’s first spy satellite into orbit, as a destabilizing act and a violation of UN Security Council resolutions prohibiting Pyongyang from ballistic missile launches.  North Korea has vowed to attempt another satellite launch in the coming days.  Reuters

South Korea Sanctions North Korean Hacking Group After Satellite Launch Fail. On Friday, South Korea announced sanctions against the North Korean hacking group, Kimusky, which Seoul claimed was involved in North Korea’s failed satellite launch earlier this week.  The South Korean foreign ministry said the group is involved in North Korean satellite development by stealing relevant weapons, satellite and space technologies.  The U.S. and South Korea also released a joint advisory warning think tanks and academic institutions that the group is known to carry out large scale cyber-attacks — most commonly spear phishing campaigns — against journalists, academics, or others that focus on North Korea issues.  Reuters

China and Singapore Agree to Defense Hotline.  China and Singapore agreed on Thursday to lay the necessary groundwork for a high-level military communication link.  Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu said the hotline will increase “mutual understanding and trust” between Beijing and Singapore, a key U.S. ally.  Neither side gave a timeline for when it will be established.  The move comes amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and China.  Associated Press

Middle East and Northern Africa

US Sanctions Iranians over Alleged Plots to Kill John Bolton and Others around the World.   The US on Thursday imposed sanctions on individuals and entities linked to an alleged plot in 2021 to kill former national security advisor John Bolton and others involved in the 2020 US airstrike that killed the head of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, as well as Iranian dissidents and journalists. The alleged plot included five individuals and one company affiliated with the Quds force. One of the sanctioned individuals is Revolutionary Guard official Shahram Poursafi, who prosecutors say attempted to hire someone to murder Bolton as well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.  Associated Press

Lebanon Formally Accuses 5 with UN Peacekeeper Killing. A military tribunal in Lebanon formally accused five men of being responsible for the killing of Irish peacekeeper Sean Rooney back in December. All five of the men have ties to Hezbollah, according to a report by the Associated Press citing an anonymous senior judicial official with knowledge of the case. The indictment follows a half-year investigation into the killing of Rooney, who died when his UN peacekeeping convoy was attacked near the southern Lebanon town of al-Aqbiya.  Al Jazeera

Sub Saharan Africa

US Sanctions Companies Tied to Sudan Conflict.  The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday sanctioned several companies that have allegedly inflamed the Sudan conflict by servicing Sudan’s army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The U.S. penalized two companies affiliated with the army, one of them being Sudan’s largest defense enterprise, Defense Industries System. The sanctions also covered two entities connected to the RSF, including Algunade, a company associated with gold mining. Officials say the sanctions are part of U.S. efforts to cut off the warring parties’ abilities to obtain weapons and other resources that permit continued violence.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently announced visa restrictions on multiple unnamed individuals involved in the conflict, including leaders of both the army and the RSF.  Despite an ongoing ceasefire, fighting within the capital Khartoum and other cities has not ceased. Neither side, nor the companies targeted, have commented on the sanctions.  Reuters

Senegal Opposition Figure, Presidential Hopeful Sentenced to Prison.  Violent protests broke out in Senegal after a leading opposition figure, Ousmane Sonko, was sentenced to two years in prison.  Sonko was convicted of the crime of “corrupting youth.”  He has denied wrongdoings and boycotted court proceedings.  Senegal Justice Minister Ismaila Madior Fall told reporters that Sonko can be arrested “at any time.”  Supporters of Sonko say his sentence, which blocks him from running in Senegal’s upcoming presidential election next year, was a move by Senegalese President Macky Sall to remain in power and silence opposition, which the government has denied.  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Cyber and Tech

Russian Intelligence Agency Says U.S. Hacks Apple Devices of Russian Citizens, Diplomats. A Russian intelligence agency claimed on Thursday it had uncovered an NSA operation that deployed malware to Apple smartphones through a “backdoor” vulnerability.  The Federal Security Service (FSB) statement noted that domestic Russian users were among the “several thousand” smartphones infected by the malware.  Others targeted by the intrusions, the FSB said, included foreign diplomats from Israel, Syria, China, and NATO members.  The operation demonstrated “close cooperation” between NSA and Apple, according to the FSB statement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian officials have been warned about Western-made devices such as Apple products, adding that "using them for official purposes is unacceptable and prohibited." The Russian announcement about Apple was released shortly before the Moscow-based firm Kaspersky Lab reported that the iPhones of a number of its staffers had been compromised in "an extremely complex, professionally targeted cyberattack.”  Reporting on what they called “Operation Triangulation,” Kaspersky researchers said that “while monitoring the network traffic of our own corporate Wi-Fi network…we discovered a previously unknown mobile APT campaign targeting iOS devices.  The targets are infected using zero-click exploits via the iMessage platform, and the malware runs with root privileges, gaining complete control over the device and user data.” CyberScoop Reuters 

U.S. Plans Further Curbs on Hi-Tech Investment, Knowledge Transfer to China. Additional restrictions on investments and knowledge transfer to China from the U.S. are under consideration by the Biden administration, according to a Treasury Department official.  Testifying this week before the Senate Banking Committee, Paul Rosen, whose Treasury position involves overseeing investment security, said that the new rules would target “certain specific sectors and subsectors such as advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing."  Rosen’s remarks came in the context of discussing China and the Chinese military.  In a related issue, Senator Bill Hagerty asked a Commerce Department official about restrictions on U.S. goods to Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications firm.  Commerce Department assistant secretary Thea Rozman Kendler said "we do not have a draft rule at this time," adding "we are under deep analysis of this issue."  Reuters

Chinese Intelligence Mining U.S. Open Information for Military Insights. The threat intelligence firm Recorded Future is out with an analysis of Chinese efforts to mine U.S. open source information for insights and data valuable to the PRC military.  Targets of the Chinese collection programs include the Pentagon, think tanks, and private companies, whose openly available information could be used to prepare for a possible conflict with the U.S.  Recorded Future cites, in particular, research coming out of the China maritime center at the U.S. Naval War College.  The volume of information coming from the center, a Recorded Future analyst notes, while academic in nature, could be regarded as “valuable intelligence” to a foreign government.  The report also refers to Chinese intelligence agency interest in publicly available insights from the Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon’s in-house think tank.  Overall, U.S. defense sources generate large amounts of information on military capabilities, doctrine and planning.  In preparing its analysis, Recorded Future examined contracts that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has concluded with private Chinese companies to collect information, especially on the U.S. military and defensive preparations for the island of Taiwan.  Recorded Future analyst Zoe Haver observed, “the PLA very much assumes the United States will in some form intervene in a Taiwan conflict, and they work very hard to prepare for that type of scenario.”  New York Times

Dark Pink Hackers Extract Data from Networks in S.E. Asia, Belgium. A hacker group known as Dark Pink has been linked to new cyberattacks targeting government and military systems in Belgium, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia.  The group appears to focus on extracting data with the most recent attacks this year focused on government organizations in Brunei and Indonesia.  According to the Group-IB cybersecurity firm, over the past year Dark Pink has penetrated five new targets using sophisticated malware and phishing emails, including a Thai military organization, Vietnamese nonprofit, and Belgian educational facility.  While previous investigations of Dark Pink operations revealed a tactic of sending stolen data to a Telegram chat in a zip archive, recently the group exfiltrated data using a legitimate data communication and testing service that also has been abused to facilitate illicit data transfers.  Bloomberg CyberScoop  TheRecord 

Australia Considers Ban on ‘High-Risk’ AI Deepfakes, Algorithmic Bias. Australia is considering a ban on “high-risk” AI applications, including automated decision-making, due to the possible harms brought about by deep fakes and algorithmic bias.  A report from the National Science and Technology Council released this week includes a discussion paper on “safe and responsible” use of AI.  A particular concern spotlighted in the paper is the threat to “democratic processes,” posed by deep fakes, which create “misinformation and disinformation, and encourage people to self-harm.”  Another priority risk is the potential use of AI to introduce “algorithmic bias” in hiring and employment decisions, or the targeting of minority racial groups.  Industry and Science Minister Ed Husic told Australian television, "There is clearly, in the community, a concern about whether or not the technology is getting ahead of itself.  Governments have got a clear role to play in recognizing the risk and ... putting curbs in place."  Reuters The Guardian 

U.S., UK Leaders To Discuss AI Risks, Guardrails in White House Meeting Next Week. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will discuss the risks and potential of AI in meetings with President Joe Biden in Washington next week.  In the wake of an experts’ statement on the “extinction” threat of AI, Sunak conveyed reassurance to the public that “the government is looking very carefully at this.”  Referring to the recent meeting of G7 leaders, Sunak said there was recognition that “we’re only going to grapple with this problem and solve it if we work together not just with the companies, but with countries around the world.”  The British prime minister said he anticipates the UK playing a “significant role” in helping create guardrails for how countries develop AI, noting that “it’s something that I’ve already been discussing with other leaders at the G7 summit the other week, [and] I’ll be doing that again when I visit the U.S.”  British sources do not think establishing a new international organization is realistic, but the UK does want to participate in coordination of regulatory efforts in Europe, Asia and the U.S.   UK officials believe a “principles-based” approach is more likely to be accepted around the world in contrast with the EU’s proposals to ban specific AI products, such as facial recognition software.  Politico The Guardian 

CISA Director Comments on AI ‘Extinction’ Risk, Company Responsibilities. Reflecting on Tuesday’s “open letter” from technology experts and executives on the “extinction” risk related to AI development, CISA Director Jen Easterly said, “I would ask these 350 people and the makers of AI, while we're trying to put a regulatory framework in place, think about self-regulation.  Think about what you can do to slow this down, so we don't cause an extinction event for humanity.”  Easterly also expressed concerns about China’s “aggressive cyber posture,” noting that in a conflict or blockade involving Taiwan, Beijing likely would carry out cyberattacks  “to delay military deployment and to induce societal panic.”  Easterly described last week’s joint “Five Eyes” intelligence community advisory on Chinese targeting of critical infrastructure on Guam and elsewhere as “a real wake up call for our concerns about why we need to increase the security and resilience of our critical infrastructure.”  Easterly also repeated an appeal to the private sector to be more active in protecting their networks from growing cyber threats, which now include AI risks. She said that companies can take steps to prevent “extinction-type risk” by working to integrate security into products and services from the start.  FCW

Bipartisan Senate Bill Proposes Strengthening Cybersecurity with Abraham Accords States. A bipartisan Senate bill has been introduced to bolster cybersecurity cooperation between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Abraham Accords states — Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.  The aim of the bill is to bolster defenses against cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure from Iran and other "hostile cyber actors."  Protections against ransomware attacks also are addressed in the bill.  The new bill would authorize information-sharing, technical assistance in responding to cybersecurity incidents, and joint cybersecurity training and exercises.  Robert Silvers, DHS undersecretary for policy, said “the expansion of the Abraham Accords into cybersecurity is advancing our defensive operational collaboration with Israel and our partners across the Middle East to protect our critical infrastructure.”  Axios TheHill

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