Friday, July 7, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
U.S. Approves Cluster Munitions for Ukraine. The Biden administration has reportedly decided to provide Ukraine with controversial cluster munitions. The U.S. Defense Department is set to announce the transfer on Friday. The munitions will be funded using the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which pulls from U.S. stockpiles. The main weapon under consideration is an M864 artillery shell that can be fired from 155mm howitzers, which the U.S. and Western allies have already given to Ukraine. Kyiv has long-requested the controversial weapons to more effectively target entrenched Russian positions. The U.S. now appears to be in agreement with Ukraine, reversing its previous reluctance to send the weapons over concerns about indiscriminate harm to civilians, especially due to high failure rates that leave unexploded munitions after the conflict. A law passed in 2009 prohibits the export of American cluster munitions that have bomblet failure rates higher than 1%, though U.S. President Joe Biden is thought to be able to bypass the ban, as former President Trump did in 2021 when he sent the weapons technology to South Korea. Human rights monitors say that Russia and Ukraine have already used cluster munitions since the start of the war in February 2022, reporting that at least 689 people were killed by cluster munitions in the first six months of the conflict. Most NATO members are signatories of the ban on the use of cluster munitions. Washington Post Reuters Forbes
Former CIA Chief Says U.S. Must ‘Tighten the Screws’ on Russian Economy. Former CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert General David Petraeus (Ret.) told CNN that the U.S. should increase economic pressure on Russia as it deals with the aftermath of the Wagner Group mutiny. Petraeus said that “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin is in a very, very difficult situation” due to the challenge to his power from the uprising and that now is the time to “tighten the screws” on the economic front. Petraeus said that while the U.S. has conducted a “very impressive” sanctions campaign so far, it has not been as devastating to Moscow as hoped, acknowledging that it is a “real cat-and-mouse game” given the many work-arounds that have surfaced in the wake of western sanctions. Petraeus emphasized that the U.S. should work with its partners to impose further sanctions and export controls on Russia to “minimize” the “disappointing” number of countries still willing to do business with Moscow. Separately, in regard to military aid, Petraeus called on the U.S. to fulfill all of Ukraine’s requests, saying that “we have been a little overly cautious” so far. CNN
Former U.S. Officials Held Secret Talks with Moscow on Ukraine. A group of former senior U.S. national security officials reportedly met with top Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, to discuss potential negotiations for an end to the Ukraine war. Sources told NBC News that the officials and Lavrov met in April in New York, when the Russian foreign minister chaired the U.N. Security Council, for a high-level backchannel “Track Two diplomacy” effort. The officials reportedly included Richard Haass, former diplomat and outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), as well as Europe expert Charles Kupchan and Russia expert Thomas Graham, both of whom are CFR fellows and worked at the White House and State Department. Sources added that the Biden administration knew the meeting took place but did not direct it, with the White House National Security Council being briefed on the interaction thereafter. Sources also said that at least one former U.S. official has visited Russia for similar Ukraine talks. The engagement has divided national security and intelligence experts. Some argue now is not the time for negotiations and that the U.S. and its allies should focus on pressuring Moscow and supporting Ukraine. Others doubted the sincerity of the talks, saying it is unclear if there are any credible informal intermediaries on Russia’s side with enough influence in the Kremlin. Others argue that Ukraine needs to lead such negotiations. NBC News
UN Chief Reiterates Call for Multinational Force for Haiti. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres again appealed on Thursday to the Security Council and potential contributing countries to “act now” and establish a multinational force to send to Haiti. Guterres and others have called for the task force to support authorities in Haiti, which has been rocked by gang violence and an ongoing humanitarian crisis. Guterres emphasized he is “not calling for a military or political mission” from the UN, but a security force from a collection of participating countries. Reuters
Goldman Sachs Says West Needs Over $25 Billion in Rare Earths Investments to Compete With China. Goldman Sachs reported on Thursday that the West needs to invest more than $25 billion in rare earths to challenge China’s supplies. The U.S. and Europe remain reliant on China as Beijing accounts for around 90 percent of global refined output. Concerns over this dependence were highlighted this week after China imposed export controls on two key chip-making metals. As an example, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that increased Chinese mining quotas will have China producing 50,000 tons of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) this year. China already mines over 70 percent of the world’s NdPr and accounts for 90 percent of the downstream metal and magnet segment. The bank said that for the U.S. to replicate this market dominance, it will need to invest $15 billion to $30 billion for NdPr production. The bank added that out of over 20 projects outside of China planned to cumulatively produce 20,000 tons of NdPR a year, only 2-3 projects will “get off the ground this decade.” Reuters
Western Europe
NATO Chief Says Sweden Membership ‘Within Reach.’ NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that Sweden’s accession to NATO is “within reach,” following a meeting of officials from NATO, Turkey, Sweden, and Finland. The meeting aimed to overcome Turkey’s objections to approving Sweden’s membership in the alliance. Stoltenberg said progress had been made at the meeting, during which officials agreed Sweden’s membership is in the alliance’s security interest, and that accession should occur as soon as possible. Stoltenberg added that it is possible that a “positive decision” will come from NATO’s upcoming summit in Lithuania, and that he will meet with the Turkish and Swedish presidents on Monday to discuss next steps. CNN
Sweden Convicts Man for Supporting PKK. A Swedish court charged a man for supporting the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The court said the man tried to pressure a Kurdish businessman in Stockholm at gunpoint to give money to the PKK and sentenced him to four years and six months in prison for the alleged gun crime, alleged attempted extortion, and alleged attempted terrorism funding. The court also ruled that the man should be deported from Sweden after serving his sentence. Prosecutors noted that this is the first time Sweden has charged someone for attempting to finance the PKK. The verdict could support Sweden’s NATO membership bid by addressing Turkey’s concerns that Sweden harbors individuals from the PKK and other groups it deems as terrorist organizations. Al Jazeera Reuters
Britain Imposes New Sanctions Regime on Iran. Britain is widening the scope of its sanctions regime against Iran, which will allow for better targeting of Iranian decision makers, including those involved in weapons proliferation and threats against British nationals. The new sanctions regime will also empower Britain to target individuals and entities who threaten peace and stability in the Middle East and internationally, undermine Britain’s democracy and rule of law, and threaten the security of the UK and its allies. The change comes after Britain presented evidence to the UN Security Council about Iran’s transfer of weapons to Russia and Yemen’s Houthis, as well as evidence that Iran made at least 15 attempts to kidnap or kill British nationals or UK-based individuals since the start of 2022. The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the charge d'affaires of the British embassy in Tehran to protest the new sanctions regime. Reuters
Germany Set to Buy 60 Chinook Helicopters. German lawmakers say Berlin is on track to purchase 60 Chinook helicopters from Boeing in a package deal that could hit 8 billion euros. Germany said that it originally planned to buy 60 of the Chinooks last year in an effort to replace its older CH-53 fleet. The deal includes funding for related infrastructure and service. A military source told Reuters that forty-seven of the helicopters will be based in Holzdorf, some 31 miles south of Berlin. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine’s Top General Says Counteroffensive Going ‘According to Plan.’ General Valerii Zaluzhyni, the head of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, held a phone call with U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, in which Zaulzhyni said the Ukrainian counteroffensive is “developing according to the plan.” He said that Ukrainian forces “continue to conduct active offensive actions.” He also thanked Milley for U.S. military support, while also calling for further aid. Other Ukrainian military commanders backed Zaluzhnyi’s comments, reporting continued progress in the counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces on the southeastern front reported destroying 47 units of Russian military equipment in the last 24 hours. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar added that Ukrainian attacks destroyed six Russian ammunition depots in the Tavria sector, as well as artillery and missile stockpiles in Makiivka. Ukraine’s eastern military command also said it had advanced over a kilometer near Bakhmut. CNN CNN Reuters
Zelensky Visits Bulgaria. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Bulgaria on Thursday. In a meeting with pro-EU and pro-NATO Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov, Zelensky expressed thanks for Bulgaria’s military support and pledged to strengthen defense cooperation between Kyiv and Sofia. Zelensky later had a more fiery exchange with Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, who has previously expressed doubt over arming Ukraine. Radev explained that there was “no military solution” to the war and that “more and more weapons will not solve it.” In response, Zelensky said “God forbid some tragedy should befall you and you should be in my place.” He then asked his Bulgarian counterpart “Would you say: Putin, please seize Bulgarian territory?” Radev reportedly responded by saying he had a proposal, then asked TV cameras recording the meeting to depart before continuing. Zelensky’s visit to Bulgaria had previously been leaked by diplomatic sources to Bulgarian media. CNN Politico
Zelensky Visits Czech Republic. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Czech Republic on Thursday to meet with Czech President Petr Pavel. The two reportedly discussed defense cooperation, Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding, the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. After their meeting in Prague, Pavel said the Czech Republic will continue to support Ukraine and its bid to join NATO and the European Union. CNN Al Jazeera
Zelensky to Visit Turkey. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting Turkey on Friday to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Officials say that the talks in Istanbul will focus on potentially extending the Black Sea grain deal, from which Russia has threatened to withdraw, as well as a possible prisoner exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow. Turkish officials said Erdogan may hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin after Zelensky’s visit. Reuters
Lukashenko Claims He Has Say in Use of Russian Weapons in Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday that he has a veto over any potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has the ultimate decision in the use of Russia’s nuclear weapons, Lukashenko said Russia and Belarus “jointly” control the weapons, and he is sure Moscow will “consult” with Minsk on their use. Regarding the deployment of the weapons themselves, Lukashenko said they had not been moved from Russia to Belarus by land. Meanwhile, some security experts still question whether the weapons have indeed been moved to Belarus, especially after a Federation of American Scientists report last month noted a lack of conclusive visual evidence. Reuters
Belarus Says No Wagner Units at Base Offered to Them. An advisor to the Belarus defense minister told reporters on Friday that no Wagner Group units have visited the abandoned military base that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered. The advisor said: “They have not come, they have not looked,” adding that tents seen at the base are for an exercise and are not connected to Wagner. The advisor’s comments put the deal that ended the Wagner Group munity further into doubt. The agreement stipulated Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner fighters who did not want to sign up with the Russian Defense Ministry were supposed to relocate to Belarus. Lukashenko on Thursday suggested the deal was not being followed when he claimed that Prigozhin was in Russia and that Wagner units remained at permanent camps. Reuters
Ukraine Military Spy Chief Says Threat to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Lessened. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Thursday that the threat of a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has decreased. Budanov did not give details as to how or why the threat has receded, though he made clear that the threat “is not eliminated” and has only been postponed, adding that “as long as the station is occupied this can happen again any time [Russian forces] want.” Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly accused each other of planning an imminent attack on the facility. Ukrainian intelligence previously warned that Russia had placed explosives on the roofs of several reactor buildings. Reuters Al Jazeera
Ukraine, Russia Conduct Prisoner Exchange. Russia and Ukraine announced that they conducted a prisoner exchange on Thursday. Russia’s defense ministry said Ukraine returned 45 Russian servicemen. The head of Ukraine’s Presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, said that Russia had returned 45 Ukrainian service personnel and two civilians. Ukrainian officials said many of those returned were “seriously injured” and that all will undergo rehabilitation. They added that 2,576 Ukrainians have been freed in prisoner swaps since the start of the invasion in February of 2022. Reuters Al Jazeera
Zelensky Wanted Counteroffensive to Start ‘Much Earlier’. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted the counteroffensive against Russian forces to start “much earlier” and warned Western allies that delays in sending weapons to Kyiv slowed the counteroffensive. In a CNN interview, Zelensky said he was “grateful” to the U.S. and Europe for their support, but that he wanted an acceleration of military aid shipments. He explained that the longer Ukraine waited on Western weapons the more “time and possibility [Russia had] to place more mines and prepare their defensive lines.” Zelensky has previously acknowledged that the counteroffensive is going “slower than desired,” though he maintains there have been advances “in all directions,” while Ukraine's military says the biggest push of the counteroffensive is yet to come. CNN New York Times Reuters
Ukrainian Tanks May Outnumber Russia’s on the Battlefield. Ukraine may be fielding more tanks on the battlefield than Russia. According to data from Germany’s Kiel Institute, Western allies supplied 471 new tanks to Ukraine since the start of the war, with 286 more yet to be delivered. Despite tank losses, Bloomberg reports that these additions increased Ukraine's tank fleet from 987 before the war to 1,500 currently. In contrast, according to data from open-source intelligence group Oryx, there have been confirmed losses of 2,082 Russian tanks. Taken with the British International Institute for Strategic Studies’ estimate that Russia had 3,400 tanks before the war, Moscow may now have just 1,400 — less than half the size of its pre-war number. The estimates suggest there has been a significant change in the balance of heavy weapons in the war. However, Bloomberg notes that Ukrainian losses are less recorded, and it is unclear how many new tanks Russia produces or pulls from storage. Experts also note that even with the change in numbers, the cost remains high for Ukraine as it is now working to liberate territories, working against well-prepared defenses. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent
Russia Reportedly Testing Upgraded Strategic Bomber. Russian state media TASS reports that Russia started joint trials of its experimental modernized strategic bomber TU-160M on Thursday. According to the report, the strategic missile-carrying bomber is designed to hit targets in remote areas with nuclear and conventional weapons. The TU-160M is an upgraded version of the TU-160, which TASS claims is the world’s “largest and most powerful supersonic military aircraft with a variable-sweep wing to date.” CNN
Russia Expels Finnish Diplomats, Closes Consulate. Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday expelled nine Finnish diplomats from Russia and shut down Finland’s consulate in St. Petersburg. The move was a tit-for-tat retaliatory response to Finland’s expulsion of nine Russian diplomats last month. The ministry added that it summoned Finland’s ambassador to Russia, Antti Helanterä, to protest what it called Finland’s “confrontational anti-Russian policy,” highlighting Finland’s accession to NATO as a “threat” to Russian security and Finnish support for Ukraine as a “clearly hostile” act. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö tweeted that he saw Russia’s actions as a “tough and asymmetric” response to Finland’s earlier decision to expel the Russian diplomats, adding that he is considering countermeasures including the potential closure of Russia’s consulate in the Finnish port of Turku. Associated Press
Lithuania Slights China Over Strengthening Ties to Taiwan. Lithuania released a government strategy for the Indo-Pacific region on Wednesday which reinforces the Baltic nation’s decision to build stronger economic ties with Taiwan, calling trade with Taipei one of its “strategic priorities.” The strategy adds that China’s “ever-intensifying autocratic control methods domestically” and its “aggressive foreign policy aimed at projecting its power externally” warrant attention. The strategy also said that China’s economic pressure on Lithuania over its relations with Taiwan have been “unsuccessful,” showing that “a country can withstand economic blackmail if it has built up societal resilience and has reliable partners.” Politico
Asia and Oceania
NATO, Japan Finalize Cooperation Pact. Nikkei Asia reports that NATO and Japan have concluded negotiations on a new cooperation framework, the Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP), and will formally announce it at the NATO summit in Vilnius next week. Sources say the ITPP includes 16 cooperation areas that fall under three strategic goals: to strengthen dialogue, improve interoperability and bolster resilience. A key area of cooperation is “capability and interoperability development” between NATO and Japanese forces. Officials say this area aims to improve understanding of each other’s assets and standardization of defense equipment to expand the scope of future joint drills. Japan has reportedly also concluded an ITPP with Australia and is forming ones with Australia and New Zealand. The heads of all four Indo-Pacific countries, known as the IP4, will be attending the NATO summit. Nikkei Asia
Xi Jinping Urges Chinese Military to Deepen War and Combat Planning. Chinese President Xi Jinping is urging his military to deepen war and combat planning in order to increase chances of victory in actual combat. During his inspection tour of the Eastern Theatre Command on Thursday, the Chinese leader stressed the need to enhance military preparation and training. Xi said the world has found itself in a new period of turmoil and change, and that China’s security situation has become more unstable and uncertain. Reuters
Taiwan Rejects Chinese Ability to Counter U.S. Carrier Group. Taiwan’s national security officials have refuted a recent Chinese study that asserts that Beijing could destroy a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group with hypersonic anti-ship missiles. In May, the North University of China published a paper saying that a simulation had shown that an assault with 24 hypersonic anti-ship missiles against a U.S. flotilla led by the USS Gerald R Ford would succeed and destroy the group “with certainty.” This was the first time that China published the results of a war game of hypersonic strikes on a US aircraft carrier. Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research disputed the credibility of the study and performed their own simulation, finding that a Chinese attack only sank an average of 2.2 out of the six ships in the U.S. carrier strike group, instead of the 5.6 described by China. The Taiwanese simulation added that China only sank most of the U.S. ships when they stopped moving, if the effectiveness of the U.S. flotilla’s air defense missile systems was set artificially low, and if the carrier’s other weapons like electronic interference and decoy systems were not considered. The Taiwanese study comes amid efforts by Taipei to fortify public faith and dampen war fears amid a period of increased psychological intimidation from Beijing. A senior Taiwanese official said that China has started its “usual cognitive warfare campaign” ahead of Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang live-fire military exercises planned for the end of July. Financial Times
Sources Say China Seeks to Drain Taiwan’s Morale with 'Escape Plan' Propaganda. Taiwanese officials say that China seeks to drain public morale and intimidate the self-governing island by launching a misinformation campaign that includes news reports that Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has an “escape plan” should Beijing invade. As part of the campaign, at least twelve Chinese news reports claimed that Taiwan’s upcoming annual Han Kuang military drills are an "escape rehearsal" for Tsai and U.S. citizens. Taiwanese officials say that this campaign is allegedly run by China’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affair, which is chaired by President Xi Jinping. Taiwan says Chinese media began to publicize misinformation about Taiwan and U.S. military activities in May as part of a drive to spread fear in Taiwan, turn public opinion, and create distrust in the government. China has not responded to requests for comments. Reuters
Ukraine Has Asked to Join CPTPP Trade Agreement. New Zealand and Japanese authorities reported Friday that on May 5, Ukraine placed an official request to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to New Zealand. A spokesperson from the New Zealand foreign ministry said that the next steps in the application process would be determined by CPTPP members when they meet next on July 16 in Auckland. Shigeyuki Goto, the Japanese economy minister, said in a press conference that Japan "must carefully assess whether Ukraine fully meets the high level of the agreement" in regard to regulations and market access. Currently, the CPTPP trade pact includes Japan, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei, with Britain becoming the 12th member. Taiwan, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Uruguay have all requested to join. Reuters
'Tough Conversations' with China are Better than Silence, Says New Zealand PM. New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said on Friday that his country must continue to maintain a dialogue with China, but would challenge Beijing in situations that require opposition, and would not show passivity in terms of defense. In contrast to some Western allies, New Zealand has been relatively moderate and conciliatory towards China, its biggest trading partner. In an address at the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Hipkins said that "a strong, mature and complex relationship [with China] means we will have those tough conversations.” The speech follows Hipkins’ trip to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping. Hipkins stressed the fact that his nation’s independent foreign policy did not suggest a neutral position, adding “we may be small, but we are not bystanders. We chart our own course, with decisions that are in our national interest.” Hipkins also then reaffirmed New Zealand’s relationship with the U.S. Reuters
China Establishes Land Route to Afghanistan. China announced a new land link with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan on Thursday. The route connects China’s northwestern transport hub of Lanzhou in Gansu province to Kashgar in Xinjiang by rail, continues by road through Kyrgyzstan to the border with Uzbekistan, and then switches back to rail to the Afghan border town of Hairatan. Chinese state news agency Xinhua reports that the first train on the route has left Lanzhou carrying $1.5 million in freight. Businesses involved in the route say they hope it helps normalize and increase trade between China and Afghanistan. However, analysts say the route is more symbolically important rather than practical since existing air and sea links, especially via Pakistan, are more economically valuable. South China Morning Post
Islamist Militant Attack Kills Pakistan Army Officer. Islamist militants shot and killed a Pakistani army officer during a military operation in the Khyber region close to the Afghan border on Thursday. The army stated that the officer was killed during a gun battle which resulted in the arrest of “three terrorists and their facilitators”. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a local militant group composed of Sunni Islamists and sectarian groups, has claimed responsibility for killing the officer. The operation came after a suicide bomber killed three soldiers and several civilians at a military checkpoint in the North Waziristan district. No group has claimed responsibility for the bombing yet. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
U.S. Reports Iran Seized Commercial Ship in Gulf. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet reported on Thursday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “forcibly seized” a commercial ship in international waters in the Gulf that may have been involved in smuggling. The Fifth Fleet said it monitored the incident but assessed that the situation “did not warrant further response.” British maritime security company Ambrey said it was aware of an attempt by Iranian forces to seize a small tanker in the area. Tehran has not commented on the incident, which came a day after the U.S. Navy said it prevented Iran from seizing two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran later said it had a court order to seize one of the tankers for allegedly colliding with an Iranian vessel. The Cipher Brief Al Jazeera Reuters
Israel Strikes Southern Lebanon After Rocket Fire. The Israeli military launched cross-border strikes into Lebanon after two rockets were fired from Lebanese territory towards Israel. Security sources in Lebanon confirmed that two rockets had been fired toward Israel, with one of them landing in Lebanese territory and the other landing near a disputed area at the border with Israel. Israel confirmed a rocket hit near the border and said its forces struck the area the launch was carried out from. This incident took place after Israel’s military operation on the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. BBC France24 Reuters
West Bank Violence Continues with Shooting, Police Raid. Israeli security forces say they killed a Palestinian man after he fired on them following a stop to inspect his car near the Israeli settlement of Kedumim in the occupied West Bank. Reports say an Israeli, possibly a soldier, was also killed in the exchange. Hamas said the shooting was carried out by one of its members, adding that it was part of the response to the Israeli operation in the Jenin refugee camp. Separately, Israeli forces said they killed two Palestinians in a raid in the occupied West Bank town of Nablus. Israeli authorities said the two killed were “terrorists” who attacked Israeli police. The armed wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed the two men as members and said they attacked Israeli police. Al Jazeera Reuters
U.S. Air Force Says Russian Jets Harassing American Drones in Syria. U.S. Air Force Central Command (CENTCOM) reports that Russian aircraft have “engaged in unsafe and unprofessional behavior” in encounters with U.S. aircraft in Syria. CENTCOM released footage of three Russian fighter jets “harassing” three U.S. MQ-9 drones, conducting missions against ISIS targets. The video shows the Russian jets dropping parachute flares in the drones’ path, forcing them to take evasive maneuvers. It also showed one Russian jet engaging its afterburners in front of one of the drones. CENTCOM said the actions “threaten the safety of both U.S. and Russian forces.” The incident is the latest in a series of what U.S. authorities describe as provocative actions over eastern Syria. ABC News Al Jazeera Associated Press CNN US CENTCOM
UAE Pledges $15 Million to Jenin Refugee Camp After Israeli Operation. The UAE on Thursday pledged $15 million to rebuild Jenin refugee camp from damage caused during an Israeli military operation. The operation, which Israel said targeted militant targets, damaged homes and businesses and destroyed roads in the camp. At least 12 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier was killed in the offensive. The UAE said its donations will be given to the UNRWA, the UN agency that supports Palestinian refugees. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
Sudan, Iran Seeking to Restore Diplomatic Relations. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Sadeq said their countries are planning to restore diplomatic relations “as soon as possible.” The two ministers met on the sidelines of a meeting in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku for talks on the matter, adding that the discussions focused on resolving misunderstandings and finding ways to strengthen economic and political ties. Sadeq added that he thanked Iran for humanitarian aid amid the ongoing conflict between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Iran and Sudan have not had diplomatic relations since a 2016 storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
OpenAI Forms ‘Superalignment Team’ To Tackle Control Issues of Superintelligent AI. OpenAI has announced the creation of a “Superalignment team” to help solve core technical and control challenges related to preventing the tech from “going rogue.” Over the next four years, the team led by chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, one of the company’s co-founders, and Jan Leike, a leader on the alignment team, will have access to 20 percent of OpenAI’s computing power to carry out the project. The announcement of the superalignment team came in a blog post on the company’s website, where Sutskever and Leike explained that in the absence of a “solution for steering or controlling” superintelligent AI, “humans won’t be able to reliably supervise AI systems much smarter than us.” The blog authors noted that superintelligent AI is a possibility within a decade. In response to this potential, OpenAI aims to create a "human-level" AI alignment researcher, and then scale it through vast amounts of compute power. The process begins with training AI systems using human feedback, then enabling AI systems to assist human evaluation, and finally equipping the AI systems to actually do alignment research. According to the team leaders, uncontrolled superintelligent AI could lead “to the disempowerment of humanity or even human extinction. Currently, we don’t have a solution for steering or controlling a potentially superintelligent AI, and preventing it from going rogue.” TechCrunch South China Morning Post Reuters OpenAI
Russia-Linked LockBit Gang Behind Paralyzing Cyberattack on Japan’s Nagoya Port. Operations are gradually resuming at the port of Nagoya, Japan’s largest shipping facility, in the wake of a ransomware attack attributed to the Russia-linked LockBit threat actor. The breach affected the Nagoya United Terminal System, making it impossible for trucks to load or unload containers. A ransom note from a port office printer confirmed that “LockBit 3.0” was responsible for the cyberattack. The value of the ransom demand has not been disclosed. According to the Nagoya Harbor Transportation Association, the port authority did not pay the demanded ransom. A public relations spokesperson for Toyota, which makes extensive use of the port, said “the shipment of new cars has not been affected at this time. For our imported and exported auto parts, we are currently unable to load or unload them due to the system troubles.” Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, said that the country faces “a wide array of risks to our cybersecurity” underscoring the need to “strengthen the defense and resilience of our information networks” and critical infrastructure. TechMonitor JapanTimes Bloomberg
FTC’s Algorithm ‘Delete’ Authority Powerful Tool To Govern AI Data Excesses. The FTC’s authority to exercise “algorithm disgorgement” (aka “model deletion”) is a potent enforcement tool against AI producers that build large language models on data obtained improperly. If encountered, the FTC can require the creator to delete the entire data store along with products emerging from it. Sarah Myers West, an executive with AI Now and former adviser to the FTC, said the enforcement power “really gets to the core of what is a common practice in the tech industry to use wide swaths of data, not necessarily for the purpose under which the data was originally obtained.” Since 2019, the FTC has used the tool five times, including against the data analytics firm, Cambridge Analytica. In recent actions involving Amazon, the FTC required the deletion of data products from the company’s Ring security camera system, and in a later case instructed the company to remove Alexa data and voice recordings it collected in violation of a Federal children’s privacy law. According to Ben Wiseman, acting associate director of the FTC’s privacy division, the flexibility of the mandate given to the agency by Congress is key and designed “to confront new technologies and new emerging markets. Wiseman added that the broad scope of the FTC’s authorities help “ensure that consumers are protected when these new technologies hit the marketplace.” CyberScoop
Iranian Hackers Posing as Nuclear Experts Launch Cyberespionage Campaign. Experts in Middle East and nuclear security issues are being targeted by Iran-based hackers employing malware for Apple and Microsoft devices. Security researchers at Proofpoint have linked the campaign to TA453 (also known as Charming Kitten, Mint Sandstorm, and APT42), a group associated with the intelligence arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The TA453 hackers have impersonated a senior fellow of a UK military think tank while attempting to introduce malware to a faculty member of a U.S. foreign affairs institute. According to Proofpoint, the TA453 group is deploying “novel file types and targeting new operating systems, specifically sending Mac malware to one of its recent targets.” A Proofpoint researcher said the hackers’ ability to commit resources to new malware applications “exemplifies the persistence of state-aligned cyber threats.” A Thursday report from the cybersecurity firm noted the current campaign began in May when an email from a purported senior fellow with the UK think tank was sent to an expert with an invitation to provide feedback on a project called “Iran in the Global Security Context.” The hackers even offered payment to the targeted expert for a review of the bogus document. The Record
State Department Cancels Facebook Content Discussions After Federal Court Ruling. The State Department has canceled meetings it routinely conducts with Facebook officials to discuss election preparations and hacking threats after a Federal judge limited the administration’s contacts with social media platforms. The Justice Department has filed notice of an appeal of the judge’s ruling. A Facebook official said the company is awaiting notification concerning scheduled meetings with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. The decision by Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana will not prevent Facebook, Instagram, YouTube or other platforms from moderating online content, but it will restrain Federal agencies from contributing to monitoring efforts. Prior collaboration between the State Department and Facebook has flagged suspected foreign influence operations for follow-up actions by the company. Representatives for Google, which owns YouTube, and other social media companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Washington Post
UK Considering New Law To Allow GCHQ Monitoring of Internet Connection Records. A new law under consideration by the UK Government would empower Britain’s signals intelligence agency, GCHQ, to conduct real-time monitoring of logs related to domestic Internet traffic in order to detect and intervene in online fraud crimes. The Record notes that fraud amounts to $5.3 billion in losses in the UK each year, with less than eight percent of reported crimes being investigated due to the “scale, complexity and evolving nature” involved. The technical feasibility of the proposed operation and the use of Internet connection records (ICR’s) for a new purpose still is being examined, especially for civil liberties implications. ICR’s currently are used only to identify a person suspected of a crime, but the government’s proposal would extend use of the records to enable “target discovery,” including searches for devices “simultaneously connecting to legitimate banking applications and to malicious control points.” GCHQ also has proposed use of the new procedure to identify child sexual abuse offenders where “particular combinations of online behaviours” could reveal information that would be shared with law enforcement authorities. The Record
MOVEit Victim List Continues to Grow, Especially in Education Sector. Hackers’ exploitation of a vulnerability in the MOVEit file transfer tool has tallied 200 organizational victims so far, threat researchers report. The Clop ransomware gang’s breaches of systems using the MOVEit tool has expanded in scope as attacks on third-party vendors created multiple targets downstream. An Emisoft threat analyst said that “a significant number” of targeted organizations still have not disclosed MOVEit attacks. Progress Software, which produces the MOVEit tool, released additional security fixes this week and plans to update the software on a bimonthly basis. The U.S. education sector, in particular, has been a target of the Clop attacks, including some schools that have disclosed multiple breaches against third-party vendors. The Emisoft analyst said the concentrated attacks on educational facilities make it “possible that the majority of schools in the U.S. will also have been impacted.” Targeted organizations include the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, National Student Clearinghouse, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association. CybersecurityDive
More Than Two-Thirds of Fortinet Firewalls Subject to New Vulnerability. According to experts, thousands of Fortinet customers are vulnerable to attack, including government organizations where the SSL-BPN product is widely used. Fortinet in June released a patch for the bug which had a severity score of 9.8 out of 10, placing it in the “critical” category. Fortinet reported that the vulnerability “may have been exploited in a limited number of cases,” adding that the hacking campaign was “targeted at government, manufacturing, and critical infrastructure.” But concerns were raised again last weekend when a security firm reported it had developed an exploit. The Bishop Fox security researchers’ calculations lead to the conclusion that more than 335,000 instances currently are vulnerable to the issue. The experts also expressed alarm at the dozens of unpatched instances that are running years-old versions. The concerns were echoed by Tanium chief security advisor Timothy Morris, who said the seriousness of the issue “cannot be understated” considering that the devices at the heart of the problem are typically on the perimeter of an organization. Morris said that many organizations have redundant systems running as spares, meaning multiple systems may need to be patched within any one company. The Record BleepingComputer
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