Report for Friday, July 5, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN THIS REPORT

Friday, July 5, 2024

Keir Starmer leads British Labour Party to landslide election victory

Hezbollah says it has fired 200 rockets into Israel after killing of commander

Xi Backs Putin as Pressure Builds on China to End War in Ukraine

Hungary's Orban meets Putin in Moscow, drawing EU rebukes

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Russia’s War – and Russian Espionage – Are Causing Havoc in Europe  The Cipher Brief

Former Israeli Major General Warns of Perils of Hezbollah War.The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Netanyahu to send an Israeli delegation for Gaza hostage negotiations.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed U.S. President Joe Biden that he is sending a delegation to resume stalled negotiations with Hamas over a hostage release deal, signaling a potential breakthrough. The decision follows a revised proposal from Hamas that reportedly includes significant concessions. An Israeli official indicated that Mossad would lead the talks, which involve U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediators. Despite this progress, political factors within Netanyahu's coalition could threaten the deal. Hamas' flexibility in negotiations has raised hopes for a framework agreement, potentially leading to a phased release of hostages, Israeli military pullbacks, and Gaza reconstruction. However, ongoing war and skepticism among Palestinians and Israelis pose challenges to the negotiation process.  France24  Reuters

Hezbollah says it has fired 200 rockets into Israel after killing of commander.  Lebanon’s Hezbollah has fired 200 rockets into Israel in one of its largest barrages yet, following the killing of one of its top commanders by an airstrike near Tyre. This escalation comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed U.S. President Joe Biden that Israel will send a delegation to resume stalled negotiations with Hamas on a possible hostage release deal. The rockets targeted Israeli military bases in Golan and Kiryat Shmona, with no casualties reported. The barrage is seen as retaliation for the assassination of the Hezbollah commander Mohammed Nasser. Meanwhile, U.S. and French diplomats are working to prevent the escalation into a full-scale conflict, with Netanyahu reiterating that Israel's war in Gaza will only end when all its objectives are achieved.  The Guardian

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

A.I. Begins Ushering in an Age of Killer Robots. In Kyiv's outskirts, Vyriy, a Ukrainian drone company, is pioneering advanced autonomous drones. Oleksii Babenko, Vyriy’s CEO, demonstrated a drone that autonomously followed and tracked him via software, signaling a leap in drone technology driven by Ukraine's war with Russia. Ukrainian firms, bolstered by investment and government contracts, are developing autonomous weaponry using consumer tech and AI. These innovations aim to give Ukraine an edge against Russian forces by automating combat roles. However, the rise of such technology raises ethical and legal concerns, as AI-powered drones and weapons could lead to a new era of automated warfare, raising the stakes in global military dynamics. New York Times RFE/RL

Who needs warships when you’ve got drones? Russia loses control of dominance over Black Sea. Ukraine's naval drone program has significantly altered the dynamics in the Black Sea, showcasing asymmetrical warfare. In February, a cheap, remote-controlled drone, the Magura, destroyed the Russian corvette Ivanovets, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukraine's drone strategy against Russia's superior naval forces. These drones have disrupted Russia's dominance, forcing their fleet to retreat to safer harbors and reducing their ability to control the region. Ukraine's innovative use of drones, combining air and sea attacks, has created panic within the Russian Navy. This approach sets a precedent for future naval warfare, influencing global military strategies. Kyiv Independent 

Putin Says Trump ‘Sincerely’ Wants to End The War in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday in Astana, Kazakhstan, that Russia takes Donald Trump's statements about ending the war in Ukraine seriously. Putin is unaware of Trump's specific proposals, “but I have no doubt that he says this sincerely, and we will support it.” However, the Kremlin leader emphasized that a ceasefire requires Ukraine to meet Russia's demands. These demands include Ukraine pulling out of certain eastern regions and ruling out NATO membership, conditions previously rejected by Kyiv and its allies. Putin also stated that Russia will not resume strategic stability talks with the U.S. until after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell noted that continued military support for Ukraine would be challenging without U.S. involvement. Bloomberg 

Zelensky challenges Trump on plans to end the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has challenged Donald Trump to reveal his plan for ending the war with Russia, emphasizing the need to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. In an interview with Bloomberg, Zelenskiy expressed frustration over delayed Western weapon deliveries and offered to meet Trump to discuss his proposals. Trump claims he will end the war by his potential inauguration in January. Zelenskiy also highlighted Ukraine's talks to send Azeri natural gas to the EU to replace Russian supplies. He emphasized the need for continued U.S. support and criticized any notion of a cease-fire without clear plans, underscoring the urgency of receiving military aid. Bloomberg  Bloomberg Bloomberg (podcast of Zelenskiy interview)  

Xi Backs Putin as Pressure Builds on China to End War in Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s support for Russia amid increasing Western pressure to end the war in Ukraine. During talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Astana, Xi emphasized that China stands on the "right side of history" regarding Ukraine. Despite portraying itself as neutral, Beijing has been accused of aiding Russia's war efforts. Xi’s backing strengthens Russia's position, while Putin continues to forge alliances in Asia, including North Korea and Vietnam. Facing potential US sanctions, China and Russia are expanding their influence through groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to counter Western dominance. Bloomberg  

Ukraine’s army retreats from positions as Russia gets closer to seizing a strategically important town. Ukrainian forces have retreated from a northeastern neighborhood of Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop town in the eastern Donetsk region, following relentless Russian assaults. The town's fall would endanger nearby cities and critical supply routes. Just beyond are the cities of Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Pokrovsk, all of which are coming under Russian missile and artillery attacks. Ukrainian positions were destroyed in Chasiv Yar, with threats of casualties if troops remained. Russian forces have devastated the now-deserted town with scorched-earth tactics. The intensity of Russian strikes has increased, with nearly 1,300 strikes and 44 ground assaults in the past week alone. Ukrainian commanders face stretched resources and delayed military aid, although they remain determined to hold their ground. Russia also advanced near Toretsk, more than 20 kilometers south of Chasiv Yar. There, Kremlin troops seek to gain control over a main road used by Ukrainian troops for supplies. Associated Press Bloomberg Financial Times  

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 11, injure almost 100 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 11 people and injured about 100, Ukrainian authorities said Thursday. Russia targeted 12 oblasts, with casualties reported in seven, including Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Seven were killed and 55 injured in Dnipro after drone and missile strikes hit a shopping center, cars, and a gas station. In Kharkiv, guided bombs injured 20 people, including children. Shelling in Zaporizhzhia killed two and injured one. A missile strike in Poltava killed one and injured three. Russian drone debris caused a fire in Zhytomyr, injuring one. Russian forces also launched 22 drones, with 21 downed by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv Independent Associated Press RFE/RL Kyiv Independent 

Europe Seeks to Solve the ‘Patriot Puzzle’ in Ukraine. Europe is working to provide Ukraine with another Patriot air defense system by assembling it from spare parts across the continent. The Netherlands is supplying radar and missile launchers, while Germany and other countries are providing interceptor missiles. All of NATO’s member states are hard-pressed to give up any more of the estimated 90 surface-to-air Patriot batteries that weapons trackers at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London say are scattered across the military alliance — two-thirds owned by the United States. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Sweden and the Netherlands are among only seven NATO countries in Europe that field Patriot systems; the others are Germany, Greece, Poland, Romania, and Spain. President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized the urgent need for seven Patriot batteries to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian airstrikes – two more than Ukraine appears to have now. New York Times 

Election outcomes won’t change its Ukraine support, says the UN General Assembly’s president. United Nations General Assembly President Dennis Francis on Wednesday assured that global election outcomes will not change the UN’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. He emphasized that no country has the right to invade another, a principle rooted in law. During his visit to Kyiv, Francis reiterated the call for Russia to withdraw its military forces from Ukraine and expressed support for President Zelenskyy’s peace plan. Associated Press 

Why Orban came to Kyiv and what he agreed on with Zelensky. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kyiv on Tuesday for the first time in nearly 10 years, signaling a potential shift in relations with Ukraine. He and President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed a comprehensive bilateral agreement to address ongoing issues. Orban adjusted his stance on the Russian war to please Ukraine but emphasized his ongoing ties with the Kremlin. While no specific agreements were reached, the discussions marked a change. However, caution remains as Orbán's motivations and long-term commitment to constructive relations are uncertain. European Pravda 

Trump ally debunked: Ukraine not burning Russian-linked churches. Claims by right-wing figures that Ukraine is persecuting Christians by burning Russian-linked churches are false. Videos purportedly showing church burnings were misrepresented, with footage from unrelated incidents. Ukraine's actions target the Russian-backed Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) due to its ties to Russian influence campaigns, not religious persecution. The UOC-MP, which maintains links to the Kremlin, has been accused of subversive actions. Despite misinformation, Ukraine continues to uphold religious freedoms, focusing on national security and countering Russian propaganda efforts. U.S. culture wars and disinformation primarily drive the narrative of persecution. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainian journalists report continued pressure, censorship attempts as previous cases remain unsolved. Ukrainian journalists face ongoing pressure and censorship attempts amid Russia's invasion, with significant cases involving state interference and retaliation. Independent media struggle with access to officials and front-line reporting, compounded by martial law allowing state control over assets, including media. Notably, former state news agency head Oleksii Matsuka distributed a list of banned speakers, sparking backlash. A public broadcaster, Suspilne, moved towards independent broadcasting, away from the state-controlled "telemarathon." Investigations into attacks on journalists, such as illegal surveillance and threats, remain unresolved, raising concerns about a lack of political will and potential suppression of press freedom. Kyiv Independent 

14 brigades under armed, aid arriving too slowly, Zelensky comments on battlefield situation. President Volodymyr Zelensky told Bloomberg in an interview published on Thursday that Western aid is arriving too slowly, leaving 14 brigades under armed. Despite a $61 billion aid package from the U.S. approved in April, the delay has complicated front-line situations. Russia continues to pressure Ukraine, pushing into Chasiv Yar and launching a new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Zelensky emphasized the need to focus on defense until sufficient weapons arrive, enabling a potential counteroffensive. Kyiv Independent 

Russia is ordering its troops to kill Ukrainian prisoners of war–why? Russian commanders are ordering their troops to kill surrendering Ukrainian soldiers to instill fear among their own ranks and prevent them from surrendering. This policy is intended to deter Russian soldiers from giving up by making them believe that Ukrainians will retaliate similarly if they do. Evidence of this "take no prisoners" policy has surfaced, especially in the Kharkiv region, where many Ukrainian prisoners have been executed. This tactic has led to severe demotivation among Russian troops, contributing to increased surrenders to Ukrainian forces. The Kremlin’s orders aim to maintain control and expedite assaults without handling prisoners. The Independent

Sabotage and poison: How Ukrainians resist Russian occupation. Ukrainian resistance fighters in occupied territories follow strict rules to avoid detection, such as blending in with the crowd and maintaining punctuality. Reports of car bombings, honey traps, and poisonings have surfaced since Russia's invasion, but the full extent of the underground movement remains largely hidden. A new report by Dr. Jade McGlynn sheds light on the patriotic partisan movement involving tens of thousands of Ukrainians. These fighters engage in various acts of resistance, from distributing yellow ribbons to assassinating Russian secret police, risking their lives to oppose enemy rule in Ukraine. The Telegraph 

Ukraine Lays Its Tracks to Europe. Ukraine's national railway, Ukrzaliznytsia, has become crucial in the war effort, transporting troops, refugees, and diplomatic delegations. It has also adapted to compensate for disrupted sea exports by expanding and restoring rail lines, supported by international funding. However, Ukraine’s railway gauge, a remnant of its Soviet past, complicates cross-border transport with Europe, requiring costly and time-consuming gauge changes. Ukraine is investing in infrastructure upgrades, including European-gauge tracks, to strengthen ties with Europe and improve logistics for passengers and military support, but these efforts are expensive and will take decades to complete. Foreign Policy 

Ukrainian Filmmaker-Soldier Documented Evacuation Of His Unit Under Fire. Ukrainian documentarian and former political prisoner Oleh Sentsov predicts his country may fight Russia's invasion for "another 10 years" to achieve victory. His new documentary, "Real," screened at the Karlovy Vary International Film Festival on June 30, showcasing this determination. Sentsov traveled from the front lines to present his film and meet Czech President Petr Pavel, who pledged continued support for Ukraine's struggle. RFE/RL  

Russia poses as peacemaker, stepping up attacks on Ukraine’s east. Russia is posing as a peacemaker while intensifying attacks on Ukraine's eastern regions, accusing NATO and Ukraine of warmongering. Ukraine rejected Hungary's ceasefire proposal, and an independent media outlet analyzed data suggesting a significant increase in Russian war-related deaths. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity and continued efforts towards a comprehensive peace plan. Meanwhile, Russia's diplomatic moves included withdrawing from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and attempting to leverage Hungary's European Union presidency for its own narrative. Despite diplomatic posturing, Russian military advances have been met with stiff Ukrainian resistance. Aljazeera 

Drone attack in Rostov causes fire. Russian air defense shot down 10 drones over Rostov Oblast on Friday, causing a large fire in Rostov-on-Don. No casualties were reported. Drone attacks in the region, often targeting oil infrastructure, have increased. Recently, Ukrainian forces have intensified drone strikes against Russia’s oil industry and military hardware. Kyiv Independent

Russian colonel charged in absentia for ordering attacks on civilian infrastructure. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Thursday it charged Russian Colonel Ivan Panchenko in absentia for ordering attacks on civilian infrastructure in eastern Ukraine, including the airstrike on the Hryhoriy Skovoroda National Literary Memorial Museum in Kharkiv Oblast in May 2022, which left one person seriously injured. Panchenko faces multiple charges under Ukraine's Criminal Code for war crimes. Kyiv Independent 

All Russian Kinzhal missiles downed over Kyiv since arrival of Patriot systems, Ukrainian Air Force says. Since the U.S. provided Patriot air defense systems in May 2023, all Kinzhal ballistic missiles fired by Russia at Kyiv have been intercepted, according to Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Serhii Yaremenko. Kinzhal missiles, launched from MiG-31K aircraft with a range of 2,000 kilometers, were previously deemed near-impossible to intercept. More than 20 Kinzhal missiles have targeted Kyiv, but none have hit the capital. Yaremenko emphasized that the Patriot systems were effective against various ballistic missiles, regardless of type. Ukraine continues to seek additional air defenses to counter increasing Russian strikes. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainian drone hits gunpowder plant in Russia, source says. Ukrainian military intelligence drones attacked a gunpowder plant in Kotovsk, Russia's Tambov Oblast. The damage is being assessed, though Russian officials claimed no casualties or damage. This plant, one of Russia's largest for ammunition production, was previously targeted by Ukrainian drones in January and November. The facility, which has increased production since Russia invaded Ukraine, is on the U.S. sanction list. Ukrainian forces often target Russian military and industrial sites with drone strikes. Kyiv Independent 

97% of Russian missiles, drones, bombs hit civilian infrastructure, diplomat says. Danylo Kubai, Ukraine's envoy to international organizations in Vienna, stated on July 3 that only 3% of Russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs hit military targets in Ukraine, while 97% have struck civilian infrastructure. During a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Kubai detailed Russia's massive air attacks, which have killed dozens of civilians and destroyed private and commercial buildings, hotels, schools, churches, and hospitals. He emphasized Ukraine's need for additional air defenses and condemned Russia's continuation of the war, highlighting Ukraine's determination to restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Kyiv Independent 

Bureaucracy preventing allocation of funding to protect Ukraine's energy infrastructure, media reports. Ukraine's government has not distributed $162 million in European Union funding for energy infrastructure reconstruction due to "bureaucratic obstacles," Ekonomichna Pravda reported on July 4. Despite renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, nearly 90% of which has been damaged, the Finance Ministry has not allocated the funds. This delay also blocks a $141 million grant for port infrastructure repairs. The inaction has halted reconstruction projects, forcing contractors to use their own capital. Mustafa Nayyem, head of the Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, resigned on June 10, citing "systemic obstacles" and a lack of support from Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Kyiv Independent  

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, July 3, 2024. Ukraine is forming new brigades but faces challenges due to delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries, hindering their full equipping. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the importance of heavy equipment for future counteroffensive operations and highlighted delays in military equipment deliveries.  According to a brigade commander near Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces need more ammunition than manpower. Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging existing Eurasian-focused and Russian-led international organizations as the cornerstone for his new proposed alternative "Eurasian security architecture."

Battlefield updates: Russian forces recently advanced within easternmost Chasiv Yar, in the Toretsk direction, and near Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and southeast of Chasiv Yar. Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, July 4, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarization" as a precondition. Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers detained Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault Brigade, on fraud charges after his brigade suffered heavy losses. Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's efforts to expand its presence in Central Asia to increase Russian influence. The US Department of Defense announced the purchase of $2.2 billion worth of air defense interceptors and a $150 million aid package for Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that around 190,000 Russians signed military service contracts in the first six months of 2024.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

AMERICAS

Arrival of Kenya’s police forces in Haiti showing initial success, marks new age for security, says prime minister. Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille on Wednesday addressed the United Nations Security Council, emphasizing the importance of recently deployed Kenyan police in controlling gang violence and moving towards democratic elections. He described reports of the mission’s initial days as “extremely, extremely positive” and said his government aims to address gang violence, food insecurity, and ensure free elections through reforms. The first contingent of 200 Kenyan police officers arrived in Port-au-Prince in late June, with Kenya committing 1,000 police to the international force. The mission will eventually include 2,500 personnel from multiple countries. The Kenyan police have started joint operations with the national police. Haiti's history of foreign intervention has been problematic, and Conille stressed the need for coordination to avoid past mistakes. U.N. officials urged international support for the police mission fund, with the U.S. pledging $309 million, though funds have not yet arrived. Chinese and Russian diplomats criticized Washington for failing to prevent arms smuggling to gangs, which the U.S. is actively addressing. Reuters Associated Press 

Panama deportations not enough to stop migrant crossings at Darien Gap. Analysts suggest that the recent agreement between Panama and the U.S. to repatriate migrants crossing the Darien jungle faces significant challenges and could increase the danger of migrant journeys. Analysts doubt the plan's effectiveness due to the high number of migrants, suggesting that any reduction in crossings through the Darien would shift migration to other, potentially more dangerous routes. Last year, a record 520,000 migrants traversed the treacherous route, many facing severe dangers. The U.S. has allocated $6 million to the program, viewing it as a “pilot program” that could expand. However, experts doubt Panama's capacity to conduct sufficient repatriation flights to make a significant impact. Previous measures by the Central American nation to curb migration have failed. Some believe the new initiative might work, but others warn it may push migrants to more dangerous paths and benefit criminal groups involved in human trafficking. Reuters

U.S. restarts talks with Venezuela, urges fair election. Top U.S. and Venezuelan officials resumed talks this week, with the U.S. urging Venezuela to ensure competitive and inclusive elections scheduled for July 28. Venezuela's chief negotiator, Jorge Rodriguez, confirmed that both parties agreed to improve relations and maintain respectful communication. Concerns persist regarding President Nicolas Maduro's commitment to free and fair elections. Maduro, seeking a third term, faces opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who leads in polls after primary winner Maria Corina Machado was banned from holding office. In April, Washington reinstated oil sanctions on Venezuela, accusing Maduro of not adhering to electoral guarantees. Rodriguez expressed Venezuela's rejection of U.S. misrepresentations and insisted that talks align with previous agreements made in Qatar. Reuters

Peru, Ecuador vow to cooperate on security and oil integration. Peruvian President Dina Boluarte and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa committed to collaborating against transnational organized crime and explored new opportunities for oil processing. After their meeting in Lima, they signed a joint declaration emphasizing cooperative efforts to combat issues such as migration and illegal mining. The leaders also discussed processing Ecuadorian oil at Peru's Talara refinery, owned by the financially struggling state-run Petroperu. During her speech, which Noboa attended, Boluarte provided limited details on the oil integration plans. Reuters

EUROPE

Keir Starmer Is the U.K.’s new Prime Minister; Labour wins more than 410 of 650 seats in the House of Commons. Keir Starmer, a 61-year-old former human rights lawyer, is the new British prime minister following a landslide victory for his Labour Party. With a handful of districts left to declare, Labour had won more than 400 seats and the Conservatives were on course for no more than 130. That would be the worst defeat for the Conservatives in the nearly 200-year history of the party. Starmer has successfully transformed Labour by steering it towards the political center and addressing internal issues, including rooting out antisemitism. Despite lacking the star power of some predecessors, his disciplined and prime ministerial demeanor has been noted. Raised in a working-class family, Starmer studied at Leeds and Oxford, becoming the first in his family to graduate college. He succeeded Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020. He has since abandoned some of Corbyn's more radical policies while committing to support a strong military and avoiding tax increases on working families. Starmer's leadership marks a turnaround for Labour, which just a few years ago suffered its worst defeat since the 1930s. New York Times 

Rheinmetall, Leonardo CEOs say deal paves the way for EU defense consolidation. The joint venture between Germany's Rheinmetall and Italy's Leonardo is a significant step towards consolidating the European defense vehicle sector. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger highlighted the potential to tap into a European market worth over €50 billion. This collaboration aims to enhance Europe's defense capabilities, particularly in response to geopolitical tensions such as Russia's war with Ukraine. The venture will focus on producing advanced tanks and land defense systems, aligning with broader goals of creating pan-European consortia for new combat systems. This move reflects growing efforts for coordinated defense initiatives across Europe. Reuters 

Russian armor-piercing tank rounds to be made in India, Rostec says. Russia's state-owned Rostec announced Thursday that its weapons export unit has organized the production of armor-piercing rounds in India for Russian-made T-72 and T-90 battle tanks. This comes ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's July 8-9 visit to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin. The "Mango" projectiles can penetrate modern tanks with combined protection. Rostec also plans to localize gunpowder production in India, aligning with India's initiative to manufacture more foreign goods domestically. Moscow has been a long-time supplier of military equipment to India. Reuters

Hungary's Orban meets Putin in Moscow, drawing EU rebukes.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss peace in Ukraine, a move criticized by EU leaders who warned against appeasement. This visit comes shortly after Hungary assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the EU and just days before a NATO summit addressing military aid for Ukraine. EU leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized that unity within the EU is crucial for lasting peace. Putin expressed willingness to discuss peace proposals, contingent on Ukraine dropping its NATO ambitions and ceding territory, demands Ukraine has rejected. Orban's actions have been seen as undermining the EU presidency and promoting Hungary's interests, drawing criticism from various EU officials and leaders.  Reuters

Rosneft, Lukoil to cut oil exports from Black Sea's Novorossiisk, sources say. Russia's oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil will reduce oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk in July as they resume refinery operations. Combined loadings will drop by 220,000 barrels per day compared to June. Rosneft’s exports will fall to 0.62 million metric tons and Lukoil’s to 0.19 million tons. This reduction aligns with Russia's commitment to OPEC+ output cuts. Reuters 

Russian Who Led Troops Linked to Bucha Killings Is Charged With Corruption. Col. Artyom Gorodilov, who commanded Russian troops responsible for the 2022 Bucha massacre in Ukraine, has been arrested and charged with large-scale fraud. Gorodilov, now leading the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade, was charged with defrauding at least a million rubles ($11,236) and could face up to 10 years in prison. He previously led the 234th Guards Air Assault Regiment, implicated in the Bucha killings, where hundreds of civilians were executed. The U.S. sanctioned Gorodilov for human rights violations. His arrest coincides with a broader anti-corruption crackdown in Russia’s Ministry of Defense following Sergei Shoigu’s removal as defense minister. New York Times 

ANALYSIS– What NATO Means to the World. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the enduring importance of NATO as it celebrates its 75th anniversary. At the upcoming summit, NATO leaders will address critical security challenges heightened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has escalated into the bloodiest European conflict since World War II. NATO's strengthened defenses and increased spending aim to deter further aggression. Stoltenberg highlights NATO's role in supporting Ukraine, noting the need for faster and more coordinated aid. The alliance will also deepen ties with Indo-Pacific partners to counter global authoritarian threats. Stoltenberg asserts that NATO's unity and collective strength are crucial in maintaining international peace and security. Foreign Affairs 

Why Is Bulgaria's Pro-Kremlin President Boycotting The NATO Summit? Bulgarian President Rumen Radev is boycotting NATO's 75th-anniversary summit, opposing military aid to Ukraine, which he believes prolongs Russia’s war. Acting Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev will attend instead. Radev’s position has drawn criticism for serving foreign interests and undermining Euro-Atlantic values. Some see his absence as preventing potential embarrassment at the summit, while others view it as a harmful message to NATO partners. This move aligns with Radev's NATO skepticism and his alignment with other pro-Kremlin figures like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. RFE/RL

Ukraine envoy to NATO: Firm up membership offer. Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO Nataliia Galibarenko emphasized Wednesday the need for NATO to provide an "irreversible" path for Ukraine's eventual membership during the upcoming summit. While Kyiv understands immediate accession is unrealistic due to Russia’s war, it seeks clear commitments and additional security support. Galibarenko stressed that Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO remains despite internal divisions within the alliance and external political uncertainties. She highlighted the importance of progressing beyond previous summit commitments and continuing bilateral security agreements while pushing for NATO membership. Politico 

SCO Quickly Absorbs Belarus On Final Day Of Regional Grouping's Astana Summit. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Belarus was accepted as a member, aligning it further with anti-Western stances. Leaders from China, Russia, Turkey, and several Central Asian states attended. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka, who has sought membership for years, views this as a move against Western influence. The SCO, led by China and Russia, aims to counter Western dominance. The summit highlighted calls for resisting external interference and promoting a multipolar world order. RFE/RL 

Russia cheers Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in French election. The Russian government expressed support for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the French election, highlighting the desire for a sovereign foreign policy and independence from Washington and Brussels. Ties between Le Pen's party and Russia are well-known, including a €9 million loan from a Russian bank. Despite strong performance in the first election round, the National Rally’s chances of securing a parliamentary majority have decreased as centrist and left-wing candidates unite against them in Sunday’s final round of the snap election. Politico 

Europe Has Avoided the Nuke Question For Decades. No Longer. European leaders are quietly debating a different nuclear future amid concerns about U.S. commitment and increased Russian aggression. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized Europe's need to control its own security decisions, hinting at a more independent nuclear deterrent. Historically, Europe relied on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, but recent events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Trump's transactional approach to NATO have prompted reevaluation. Some European countries, including Sweden and Poland, are exploring alternatives to U.S. dependence but face political and technical challenges. Macron’s proposal, though cautious, seeks to involve European partners in France's nuclear strategy without replacing U.S. support. Politico 

Budapest EU presidency 'welcome party' turns to stonewalling. Hungary's European Union presidency has begun amid concerns about its impartiality under Prime Minister Viktor Orban. A "welcome party" for EU officials in Budapest turned into stonewalling, with no presence from Orban or EU commissioners. Minister Zoltán Kovács stated Hungary's presidency would be politically driven, focusing on peace, migration, demography, and competitiveness. Hungary, currently under Article 7 and with frozen EU funds due to rule-of-law concerns, faces scrutiny for its judicial independence, LGBTQI rights, and press freedom. Orbán's first visit was to Ukraine, advocating for a ceasefire, with plans to visit Moscow next, raising further questions about Hungary's EU leadership. EUObserver 

OPINION–Hungary’s presidency is a symptom of deeper EU malaise. Tony Barber argues that Hungary’s European Union presidency highlights deeper EU issues, particularly as Hungary's government under Viktor Orbán faces criticism for undermining EU values. Despite Orbán's promises of a constructive presidency, there are concerns about his influence on agendas such as migration and EU enlargement. However, Barber believes that the real challenges for the EU lie in the political instability of France and Germany, which affects their cooperation and, consequently, EU functionality. While Hungary’s presidency may cause some issues, Barber suggests the EU's structure and mechanisms will mitigate significant damage. Financial Times 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iranians choose between hard-liner or reformist in runoff presidential election.  Iranians on Friday began voting in a runoff election to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. The candidates are hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and moderate-allied heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. Jalili has been accused of potentially bringing a "Taliban"-style government to Iran, while critics say Pezeshkian's campaign focuses on fearmongering. The initial round of voting had the lowest turnout ever, raising concerns about Friday's vote amid calls for a boycott, widespread voter apathy, and pervasive economic troubles. While the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all matters, presidents can influence the nation’s policies towards the West. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi confirmed the opening of polls, and Khamenei was among the first to vote. Over 61 million Iranians are eligible to partake in the election. Associated Press BBC

Sweden condemns death penalties given to Swedes in Iraq. Sweden’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday announced plans to summon the Iraqi chargé d’affaires in Stockholm to protest against death sentences handed to Swedes in Iraq. Three Swedish nationals have recently received death sentences related to a deadly shooting earlier this year, with a possible fourth case involving drug-related charges still under verification. Stockholm, which condemns the death penalty under any circumstances, is working to prevent the executions. The ministry has communicated with the sentenced Swedes and their families but provided no further details due to privacy regulations. Media reported that the Swedes are linked to the murder of a criminal, part of a gang war between the Swedish groups Foxtrot and Rumba, which has resulted in multiple killings and attempted murders, including some outside Sweden. Associated Press Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Beijing and Moscow Go From ‘No Limits’ Friendship to Frenemies in Russia’s Backyard.  As Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Kazakhstan for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional bloc dominated by Beijing, their bilateral relations were praised amidst an international climate fraught with tension. In Central Asia, however, the dynamics reveal a growing shift. While historically under Moscow’s influence, Central Asia is witnessing increasing Chinese economic investment, evidenced by the prevalence of Chinese cars and infrastructure projects. This economic influence is diverting the region’s young workforce away from Russia, further facilitated by Chinese-funded railroads and renewable energy projects. Despite the enduring Russian cultural and political ties, the region is gradually leaning towards China for future growth, underlined by a shift in educational and professional aspirations towards Chinese language and opportunities. This evolving dynamic illustrates Beijing's rising influence in an area Moscow considers its backyard, complicating the traditional balance of power in Central Asia.  Wall Street Journal Associated Press New York Times

Taiwan detects Chinese military activity, urges de-escalation. Taiwan detected renewed Chinese military activity near the island on Friday, with 26 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters, conducting a "joint combat readiness patrol" with Chinese warships. This follows the seizure of a Taiwanese fishing boat by Beijing, which Taipei considers as a potential act of psychological warfare. Since the start of the month, Taiwan has detected at least 127 Chinese military aircraft operating close to the self-governing island. Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai advised fishermen to be cautious in open waters and avoid illegal activities, urging China not to escalate tensions with “any excessive measures,” which cause “extremely unnecessary” confrontations. Reuters 

China considering drone-only island blockade as U.S. mulls drone intervention in Taiwan. A recent study by China’s PLA asserts that the military could impose and maintain a blockade on an island, such as Taiwan, using drones alone. This drone-only strategy is mirrored by the U.S. military's "Hellscape" plan, which aims to use drone swarms to counter any PLA attempts to land on Taiwan, minimizing U.S. casualties. The PLA study detailed a simulated mission using four drone types to blockade and control an island similar to Taiwan, revealing that drones could effectively control the island and its surrounding waters, suppressing armed forces and preventing external aid. Meanwhile, the U.S. military's "Hellscape" plan envisions using drones in the Taiwan Strait to deter PLA landings and buy time for broader military responses. Although details remain classified, the plan aims to create an "unmanned hellscape" for the PLA. Chinese defense ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Wu Qian criticized Washington’s strategy as "crazy and inhumane," warning that those advocating for such actions should be prepared for consequences. Though Beijing leads the global drone manufacturing market, with Chinese drones having demonstrated superior performance in recent conflicts, the U.S. military believes its Hellscape plan will be effective in deterring the PLA. South China Morning Post 

In implied reference to U.S., Xi Jinping cautions SCO to ‘resist external interference.’ Chinese President Xi Jinping called on members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to resist external interference, implicitly referencing pressure from the U.S. and its allies. Speaking at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan, Xi emphasized unity, mutual support, and handling internal differences peacefully. He also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who praised the strong ties between Beijing and Moscow. Xi warned against a "cold war mindset" and urged member states to safeguard security, support development, and enhance economic and scientific cooperation. The SCO, initially formed to tackle security challenges post-Soviet Union, now includes 10 members. The bloc accounts for over 40% of the global population and 20% of global GDP. Despite concerns from the U.S. and its allies about the SCO's potential anti-Western stance, especially with Iran and Belarus as members, analysts argue that the SCO's goals and functions differ significantly from Western organizations like NATO. The SCO's expansion is seen as a means to enhance its development and address internal challenges. South China Morning Post

Philippine military head says forces will retaliate if assaulted again in South China Sea. The Philippines will defend itself with equivalent force if attacked again by China’s coast guard in the disputed South China Sea, following a violent encounter in June where Chinese personnel armed with machetes and spears injured Filipino navy members and damaged two boats. Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. on Thursday demanded China pay $1 million for the damages and return seven seized rifles. Additionally, Manila may seek compensation for surgery required by a navy officer injured in the clash. During the recent meeting with a Chinese delegation, Philippine officials conveyed these demands and lodged a strong protest. Beijing’s delegation has yet to respond. Brawner stressed that Philippine forces would use proportional force to defend themselves in future confrontations. He also reiterated the military's commitment to avoiding war but stressed they would not allow any infringement on the country's sovereignty. Associated Press

AFRICA

U.N. says land journeys across Africa more deadly than Mediterranean routes. A United Nations report published Friday reveals that more migrants and refugees in Africa are traveling north towards the Mediterranean and Europe, facing extreme dangers in the Sahara such as rape, enslavement, organ removal, kidnapping for ransom, and other abuses by criminal gangs, militias, and rebel groups. The report approximates that land routes in Africa are twice as deadly as the Mediterranean Sea voyages. Conflicts and instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Sudan are driving increased migration, with Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Guinea being the top nations of origin. And despite anti-immigrant sentiments in Europe, migration persists due to pervasive conflict, economic hardship, repression, and climate change. The risk of sexual violence, kidnapping, and death has increased, with Algeria, Libya, and Ethiopia being the most dangerous countries. Hundreds of cases of organ removals have been documented, often without consent. Libya remains a major transit point for migrants fleeing war and poverty, with recent discoveries of mass graves underscoring the perilous journey. Associated Press

White House welcomes two-week humanitarian truce in Congo. The U.S. has welcomed a two-week humanitarian truce in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) amid ongoing, fierce fighting between government soldiers and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. This conflict in North Kivu province has displaced over 1.7 million people, contributing to a record 7.2 million displaced individuals in the DRC. Effective from midnight local time on Friday until July 19, the truce targets areas heavily impacted by the conflict to alleviate civilian suffering. Washington emphasized the importance of this ceasefire for allowing humanitarian workers to access internally displaced persons (IDPs) around Kanyabayonga and assisting over 100,000 recently displaced individuals. The DRC and Rwandan governments support the ceasefire to ease civilian suffering and create conditions for broader de-escalation of tensions. North Kivu has dealt with the M23 insurgency and other militia violence for over two years. Reuters 

Officials say army chaos cripples Congo's struggle against Rwanda-backed insurgents. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s military is struggling with mismanagement, desertions, demoralized and inexperienced troops, and reliance on poorly trained proxy forces. Despite increased military spending and attempts at reform, internal divisions and corruption persist. Frequent changes in command and poor logistics have compounded the dysfunction, leading to confusion and inefficiency. Its forces are finding increasing difficulties in countering a two-year insurgency in the North Kivu province, and officers say that soldiers have repeatedly retreated without a fight. The M23 uprising is allegedly supported by Rwanda, according to Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, as well as the U.N., which has cited evidence showing Rwandan troops fighting alongside M23. Though the Congo has recruited more soldiers and acquired new weapons, it continues to face significant operational challenges. Meanwhile, the conflict has drawn in actors from multiple countries, with regional and international efforts proving ineffective to combat more than 100 armed groups. The situation remains dire, with both sides suffering significant losses and accusations of misconduct and collaboration with rebel groups. Reuters

Six Chinese nationals, Congo soldiers killed in militia assault on DR Congo gold mine. Six Chinese miners and two Congolese soldiers were killed Wednesday in an attack on a gold mine in northeastern Congo’s Ituri province. A militia known as the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) claimed responsibility for the attack, which took place in the village of Gambala and the nearby "Camp Blanquette" gold mine. Insurgents set homes on fire and targeted the mine, which the rival Zaire Militia, a dissident faction of CODECO, guards. In addition to the fatalities, two miners were abducted, and their whereabouts are unknown. Economic and power struggles mark the conflict between CODECO and the Zaire Militia, and CODECO, primarily composed of ethnic Lendu farmers, has been responsible for nearly 1,800 deaths and over 500 injuries between 2018 and 2022. Associated Press Reuters

CYBER & TECH

US lending support to help fend off cyber, disinformation attacks on Paris Olympics.  The Biden administration is supporting French authorities in defending against potential cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting the upcoming Summer Olympic Games in Paris. This assistance includes intelligence sharing and direct cyber support between the U.S. and France. The measures come in response to growing concerns about Russian interference, which has been linked to previous Olympic Games. The collaboration involves various U.S. agencies and international partners, such as Estonia, to ensure robust cybersecurity defenses. Despite these efforts, French authorities have been preparing for two years to address cyber threats, underscoring the high level of vigilance and international cooperation needed to safeguard the event.  Politico

Senate leader demands answers from CISA on Ivanti-enabled hack of sensitive systems. Senator Charles Grassley sent a letter to CISA Director Jen Easterly, demanding documentation and answers about a January hack on the agency’s Chemical Security Assessment Tool (CSAT) and another sensitive system. The breach, linked to vulnerabilities in Ivanti products, potentially compromised critical U.S. infrastructure information. While CISA acknowledged the breach in June, it did not initially reveal the systems affected. Grassley criticized CISA for not taking adequate steps to secure its systems and emphasized the need for transparency and oversight. He warned that Congress might initiate independent oversight regarding CISA's handling of the cyberattacks.  The Record

China strengthens Tiangong space station following last week’s Russian satellite explosion. Beijing has fortified its Tiangong space station, with two Shenzhou-18 astronauts completing a spacewalk to enhance the safety of the space station by installing protective devices on external cables and pipelines. This Wednesday mission was prompted by the explosion of a defunct Russian satellite, which generated over 100 pieces of trackable debris and also impelled NASA to direct astronauts on the International Space Station to perform “safe haven” procedures. The spacewalk, which marks the 16th extravehicular activity for the Chinese space station, lasted six and a half hours. The operation followed an initial spacewalk on May 28, during which astronauts installed similar protective devices on another module. The Shenzhou-18 crew first entered the space station on April 26. They are scheduled to return to Earth in late October. South China Morning Post

In AI rivalry with U.S., China's growing talent and infrastructure are strong assets. China's rapid infrastructure development and a growing talent pool are helping it compete with the U.S. in the global AI competition, according to industry experts at a China Conference hosted by the South China Morning Post on Thursday. Despite lacking the budget and access to advanced AI chips like those from Nvidia, China's robust infrastructure supports AI training and inference more effectively than the US. The drive and determination of China's young tech workers are another advantage. Beijing’s collaboration with academic institutions in AI research and the strong motivation among the younger generation to innovate and impact the world are all advantages in the tech race. Despite the Biden administration’s measures to hinder China’s AI progress, such as export restrictions and investment limitations, Beijing remains strong in applying AI in practical workflows, particularly in data-intensive sectors like healthcare, auditing, and financial services. South China Morning Post 

North Korea switches TV broadcasts from Chinese satellite to Russian.  North Korea has switched its state television broadcasts from a Chinese satellite to a Russian one, reducing the viewership. This was discovered by South Korea’s KBS, which noticed the broadcast signal loss. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification confirmed the switch, noting the limited reception in South Korea due to overlapping frequency bands from the Russian satellite. The reasons for the switch might include strained North Korea-China relations and the nearing end of the current Chinese satellite's lifespan. The change follows a recent visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea, where a strategic partnership was signed, deepening military and technical cooperation between the two nations.  The Record

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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