Report for Friday, July 26, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY’S REPORT

Friday, July 29, 2024

Arsonists attack French railways hours before Olympic ceremony.

Barack and Michelle Obama endorse Kamala Harris.

Netanyahu will meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago, seeking to mend rift.

EU transfers $1.6 billion to Ukraine, proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

At Paris Olympics, Americans and Israelis Top List of Security Worries.  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Joint Chiefs chair says Israel still hasn’t shared detailed plan for post-war Gaza. Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday he’s still in the dark about how Israel intends to handle Gaza’s "day after.” And that’s a problem. “We've talked to them a number of times," Brown said. "As far as the day after, we have talked to the Israelis about this, how to make a transition.” Reuters

Harris presses Netanyahu on Gaza ceasefire. Vice President Kamala Harris pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal. Striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden, Harris said in a televised statement, "It is time for this war to end." Biden met with Netanyahu earlier and told him that he needed to close gaps to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and remove obstacles in the flow of aid, according to a White House readout. Harris said she had a “frank and constructive” conversation with Netanyahu, expressing deep concern about the high death toll in Gaza and dire humanitarian situation there. "We cannot allow ourselves to be numb to the suffering and I will not be silent," she said. A Netanyahu aide told reporters that Netanyahu was upset by Harris' on-camera remarks and fears they will derail negotiations. Netanyahu’s far-right allies pushed back on X. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said her way meant surrendering to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, “ending the war in a way that would allow Hamas to rehabilitate and abandoning most of the hostages in Hamas captivity.” National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir tweeted, “There will be no ceasefire, Madam candidate.” Reuters  Associated Press Times of Israel Times of Israel

Netanyahu will meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago, seeking to mend a years-long rift. As president, Donald Trump closely aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s priorities, but relations soured when Netanyahu quickly congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 victory. On Friday, Trump and Netanyahu will meet for the first time in nearly four years, aiming to mend their relationship. For Trump, this meeting bolsters his image as a pro-Israel ally, especially amid partisan divides over U.S. support for Israel. Netanyahu seeks to strengthen ties with Trump, anticipating his possible return to the presidency. Both leaders hope to showcase their leadership and achievements on the global stage. Associated Press

Israeli forces advance in southern Gaza, tanks active in Rafah, make air strikes in north Gaza. Israeli forces advanced deeper into towns on eastern Khan Younis in southern Gaza on Thursday.  Tanks advanced in central Rafah. Airstrikes and shelling killed 30 Palestinians over the past day, Gaza health officials said. Several were wounded in the eastern towns during Israeli tank and aerial shelling. An airstrike east of Khan Younis killed four people, Palestinian health officials said. The Israeli military bombed the al-Banna family home in the east of Gaza City, killing at least three people, according to Wafa news agency. Israeli fighter jets also bombed a residential apartment in the Daraj neighborhood in Gaza City, injuring people, including children and women. Reuters Al Jazeera

Hamas is down but not out. So Israel can’t declare victory. Hamas is much weakened from its attacks on Oct. 7. But small groups of insurgents in T-shirts stage hit-and-run attacks in Gaza's bombed-out streets. A Palestinian source said personnel losses and the destruction of the communications network meant centralized decision-making had collapsed. Much of the tunnel network beneath Gaza has also been destroyed or compromised, the Israeli military has said. But the recent guerrilla tactics by Hamas cells are aimed at ensuring the group survives and tying down Israeli forces, according to another Palestinian source. Reuters

Bodies of Israeli hostages found in Gaza tunnel. The bodies of five Israeli hostages were found in a tunnel deep underground, Israel's military said on Thursday. They were hidden "in a branched tunnel about 200 meters long and about 20 meters underground," military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said. The retrieval operation took place "in the heart" Khan Younis, where Israeli forces returned to operate this week, he said. Reuters

How Biden’s Gaza pier project faltered. The Gaza pier mission did not go well. Some 1,000 U.S. troops delivered only a fraction of the promised aid at a cost of nearly $230 million. The fault lay in bad luck, fire, bad weather and crossfire. Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican who leads the Pentagon's oversight committee in the House of Representatives, called the pier "an embarrassment" and “an ill-conceived political calculation by the Biden administration.” Reuters

Israel wants to change Gaza truce plan, complicating negotiations. Israel now says that displaced Palestinians should be screened as they return to the enclave's north when the ceasefire begins. Previously, it had agreed to a ceasefire plan that allowed civilians who had fled south to return home north without condition. U.S. and Egyptian officials pushing for an agreement to free hostages and relieve the suffering of millions of Gazans are objecting to this 11th-hour complication, which could ditch the deal in negotiations in Cairo. Reuters

EU's foreign chief calls Israel's move to outlaw UN Palestinian relief agency ‘nonsense.’ European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Thursday urged Israel to revoke its decision to outlaw the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees, the main UN relief organization for Palestinians. "Outlawing UNRWA – and labeling it as terrorist, which it is not – amounts to targeting regional stability and human dignity of all those benefiting from the UN agency work," he said on X. "We join many partners in urging the Israeli government to halt this nonsense." On Monday, the Israeli parliament preliminarily approved a bill declaring UNRWA a terrorist organization. Reuters 

Houthi leader threatens counterattack after Israeli airstrikes on Yemen's Hodeidah. Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said in a televised speech Thursday that the Houthis will soon respond to the Israeli airstrike that killed at least nine people and wounded 87. Israel was retaliating for a Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv. Reuters Defense News

Australia, New Zealand and Canada call for immediate ceasefire in Gaza. "An immediate ceasefire is needed desperately," said a joint statement of leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada. "Civilians must be protected, and a sustained increase in the flow of assistance throughout Gaza is needed to address the humanitarian situation." Reuters

Israel ‘deeply disappointed’ by UK’s reported plan to withdraw objection to ICC arrest warrants, official says. A senior Israeli official criticized the UK for reportedly planning to withdraw its objection to the International Criminal Court's arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The official called the decision a violation of democracies' rights to combat terrorism. Times of Israel

Hamas leader in West Bank dies in Israeli custody. Hamas leader Mustafa Muhammad Abu Ara, 63, died in a hospital while in Israeli custody, the Palestinian Commission of Detainees Affairs said Friday. "Before his arrest, he was suffering from serious health problems and needed intensive medical follow-up,” the commission said, adding that “like all prisoners, [he] has faced unprecedented crimes ... since the beginning of the war of extermination." Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 20. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured at least 20, regional authorities said Friday. In Donetsk Oblast, two were killed and four injured. Kharkiv Oblast saw eight injuries, including two in Lozova and three in Kupiansk district. Kherson Oblast reported one death and seven injuries, with significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. In Chernihiv Oblast, one person was injured, and energy facilities in Chernihiv and Zhytomyr were damaged. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 20 of 22 Russian drones but missed one Iskander-M ballistic missile. Kyiv Independent 

Russian drones knock out Ukrainian power facilities near Kyiv. Russian drones attacked Ukrainian energy facilities near Kyiv, causing power outages for tens of thousands, authorities said Friday. Overnight, the Chernihiv region saw 15 injuries and damage to infrastructure, including a dormitory. Over 68,000 consumers lost power, with 30,000 still without electricity by morning. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 20 of 22 Russian drones, primarily in Kherson and Sumy regions. The attack damaged six residential buildings in Kherson, sparking significant fires. Recent Russian assaults on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have led to widespread blackouts, prompting Kyiv to import electricity from the European Union. Reuters

EU transfers Ukraine $1.6 billion of proceeds from frozen Russian assets. The European Union transferred $1.6 billion of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for defense and reconstruction, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday. Ukraine is expected to receive around $3.2 billion annually. While some G7 members proposed outright asset seizure, the EU prefers using windfall profits to avoid legal and fiscal issues. The EU and allies froze approximately $300 billion in Russian assets at the start of the 2022 invasion. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine hit Russian airfield in occupied Crimea, General Staff confirms. Ukraine's Armed Forces confirmed hitting Russia's Saky military airfield in occupied Crimea early Friday, causing a fire reportedly from a strike on an ammunition depot. This airfield, critical for controlling airspace over the Black Sea and launching strikes on Ukraine, was protected by Russian air defense systems, which failed. Explosions were reported in several areas, including Dobrushino, Novoozerne, Yevpatoria, and Simferopol, with residents seeing drones. Ukrainian attacks on Crimea have increased, damaging Russian military assets. Kyiv Independent

Ceasefire would leave 25% of Ukraine under Russian control, ambassador says. Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, warned that a ceasefire without Russia withdrawing its troops would allow Russia to strengthen and resume attacks. Bodnar criticized proposals for a ceasefire, stating it would leave 25% of Ukrainian territory under Russian control. Ukraine insists on ending the war through the withdrawal of Russian troops in compliance with international law. Russian President Vladimir Putin's condition for peace talks, demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from four regions, was rejected. Bodnar emphasized Ukraine's desire to join NATO for security and peace. Kyiv Independent 

Russian man confesses in video to Moscow car bomb attack on military officer at Ukraine's behest. Russia's RIA state news agency broadcast a video Friday of a Russian man claiming he bombed a military officer's car in Moscow, directed by the Security Service of Ukraine. A car bomb on Wednesday injured an officer from Russia's military intelligence in northern Moscow. Two people were hurt. CCTV footage showed a Toyota Land Cruiser exploding. Turkish authorities arrested the suspect, Yevgeny Serebyrakov, in Bodrum. The Russian Federal Security Service reported Serebyrakov was extradited to Russia and confessed in a video to making and planting the bomb at Ukrainian intelligence's behest. Reuters

Russian drone debris found in Romania, NATO says no sign of intentional attack. Romania discovered Russian drone fragments on its territory Thursday after Moscow fired 38 drones into Ukraine. Ukraine's Air Force destroyed 25 drones, but three crossed into Romania. The Romanian defense ministry found drone fragments near Plauru, across the Danube from Ukraine's Izmail, which was attacked for the second consecutive night. NATO confirmed no intentional attack on its territory. Finnish F-18 jets, part of NATO air policing, monitored the situation. Drone debris hit residential areas in Odesa. Reuters

G7 framework deal on $50 billion in Ukraine loan seen in October. The Group of Seven (G7) is likely to finalize a framework deal by October for a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, backed by profits from $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets. European Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said progress has been made on the technical and legal aspects. While there is agreement on using the profits from these assets, not all G7 members support seizing the principal amounts. Most of the frozen funds are in Europe, and the EU is considering measures to ensure the stability of the sanctions and revenue stream supporting the loan​. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Ukraine optimistic as Biden seeks to cement legacy. With President Joe Biden not seeking re-election, Ukraine hopes for increased U.S. support in his final months. Biden's experience and commitment to transatlantic diplomacy are seen as crucial in bolstering NATO and countering Russia's aggression. Biden has delegated key responsibilities to Treasury and State to consider using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Ukrainian experts and soldiers anticipate more decisive actions against Russia, including harsher sanctions and potentially lifting restrictions on using U.S. weapons against Russia. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. election is pivotal, with concerns that a Donald Trump presidency could reduce support for Ukraine. Conversely, a Kamala Harris administration is viewed as likely to continue or even increase U.S. backing. Biden’s efforts aim to ensure sustained Western support for Ukraine beyond his term, with the hope of strengthening international coalitions and NATO unity. Kyiv Independent

How Ukraine’s new tech foils Russian aerial attacks. Faced with poor radar coverage and low-flying threats, Ukraine's innovation in acoustic detection technology has proved effective. After Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian tech group Technari developed "eppo," a system using a smartphone app and AI to allow citizens to report aerial threats. Zvook, another Ukrainian startup, uses microphone arrays to detect drones and missiles at significant distances, offering a cost-effective alternative to radar. Their network, supported by local telecom firms and powered by batteries or solar panels, has been instrumental in foiling attacks. Sky Fortress, a larger secretive network, further enhances Ukraine's air defense, adapting swiftly to Russian countermeasures. These innovations have caught NATO’s attention, with demonstrations prompting several countries to explore similar technologies. The Economist

Ukraine detains man suspected of killing former MP and linguist Farion. Ukrainian authorities on Thursday detained an 18-year-old male suspected of killing former nationalist member of parliament and linguist Iryna Farion in Lviv. Farion, known for her campaigns to protect the Ukrainian language, was shot last Friday. The suspect, apprehended in Dnipro, had rented multiple apartments in Lviv. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko suggested the suspect might be part of a larger conspiracy. Possible motives include Farion’s social activities, personal hostility, or a Russian connection. Farion, a former Svoboda party member, was noted for her strong stance against Russian speakers​. Reuters New York Times 

Ukraine asks Hong Kong not to let Russia circumvent sanctions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, in Hong Kong on Thursday, urged its leader John Lee to prevent Russia from using Hong Kong to circumvent Western sanctions. Kuleba emphasized the need to stop Russia from accessing restricted materials through Hong Kong. The U.S. sees Hong Kong and China as key routes for Russia to obtain military supplies. Although Hong Kong enforces United Nations sanctions, it does not implement unilateral sanctions from other countries. Kuleba's visit followed talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi about ending Russia's war. Reuters

The Illicit Flow of Technology to Russia Goes Through This Hong Kong Address. Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has acquired nearly $4 billion in restricted chips, many routed through shell companies at 135 Bonham Strand in Hong Kong. These firms, such as Olax Finance and Rikkon Holding, assist the illicit trade of Western technology to Russia, often involving military tech. Despite sanctions, Russia's parallel supply chain secures critical semiconductors, underscoring the challenges Western regulators face in controlling tech flows. This supply chain includes distributors in Hong Kong, China, Turkey, and other countries, with involvement from Russian oligarchs and businesses. New York Times

Pentagon finds accounting errors worth $2 billion in aid for Ukraine. The U.S. Defense Department identified an additional $2 billion in accounting errors for military aid to Ukraine, raising the total unspent sum to $8.2 billion. These errors allow the Pentagon to send more weapons under the already approved amount. The General Accounting Office report on Thursday highlights difficulties in accurately valuing defense articles due to unclear definitions in the Foreign Assistance Act. Recently, a new $150 million aid package for Ukraine was announced, including air defense interceptors and artillery rounds. Kyiv Independent

Poland supplying Ukraine with 45th military aid package, official says. Poland is providing Ukraine with its 45th military aid package since Russia's full-scale invasion, former Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Zvarych, said Thursday. The new package includes ammunition, with total Polish aid surpassing $4 billion. Poland is also exploring the possibility of reinforcing the Ukrainian Air Force with MiG-29 aircraft. A security agreement signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ensures political, military, and economic cooperation, potentially including the transfer of a MiG-29 squadron. Poland has provided Ukraine with 10 MiG-29 aircraft. Kyiv Independent

Cyberattack on Russian banks, telecoms continues into third day, source says. A cyberattack by Ukraine's military intelligence agency has disrupted Russian banks and telecommunications for three days, affecting major banks like Raiffeisen, Gazprombank, VTB, and Alfabank. The attack, beginning on Tuesday, also impacted social networks, payment systems, and airlines. Russian state-owned news agency TASS confirmed the attack was a DDoS (distributed denial of service) planned from abroad. The attack has disrupted the Russian social network VK and the National Card Payment System, which operates the Mir payment system. Ukrainian cyber experts have also targeted Russian internet providers, exacerbating the situation. Kyiv Independent

OPINION–A Trump Peace Plan for Ukraine. David J. Urban and Mike Pompeo write that a proposed peace plan for Ukraine under Donald Trump could include several key measures: unleashing U.S. energy potential, rebuilding ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel, imposing real sanctions on Russia, and revitalizing NATO with increased spending. It suggests a $500 billion lend-lease program for Ukraine and lifting all weapon restrictions. The plan also involves demilitarizing Crimea, non-recognition of Russian-occupied territories, and integrating Ukraine into NATO and the European Union. These steps aim to establish peace, ensure European responsibility, and reassert Western strength. The plan counters the Biden administration's approach, emphasizing a stronger, more proactive stance against Russia. Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian athletes who will never have a chance to compete at the Olympics. At least 488 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have been killed in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the Youth and Sports Ministry. Among the victims were promising athletes like Fedir Yepifanov, Volodymyr Androshchuk, Maksym Galinichev, Oleksandr Pielieshenko, Alina Perehudova, Ivan Bidniak, and Stanislav Hulenkov. Some died in combat after joining the military, while others were killed in airstrikes or shootings. Despite these tragedies, Ukrainian sports officials emphasize the resilience and determination of their remaining athletes. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Thursday, July 25, 2024. Ukrainian forces halted a large Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on Wednesday. The Russian military command's poor operational foresight in expending large numbers of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives will result in costlier mechanized assaults as equipment constraints worsen. Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has been appointed as the Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with China and ASEAN member states. The Security Service of Ukraine and National Police thwarted a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service that was planning arson attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine and Europe. Russian officials are calling for measures to limit the influence of diaspora groups while the government extends control over migrants. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss tensions in the Middle East and economic relations.

Battlefied updates: Ukrainian forces advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne. Institute for the Study of War.

AMERICAS

Barack and Michelle Obama endorse Kamala Harris. Former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in her bid for the White House. This endorsement is crucial as Harris builds momentum to become the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid. In a video, the Obamas expressed their pride and support for Harris, who aims to break barriers as the first woman, Black woman, and person of Asian descent to become president. Harris, grateful for their friendship, looks forward to campaigning with them ahead of the Nov. 5 election. Associated Press BBC New York Times Politico

US judge should reject Boeing plea deal, crash victim families say. U.S. District Judge Reed O'Connor should reject a "sweetheart" plea deal the Department of Justice (DOJ) struck with Boeing, relatives of 15 of the 346 people killed in two fatal 737 MAX crashes said on Thursday. The deal involves Boeing pleading guilty to fraud conspiracy and paying $243.6 million after violating a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement. Families highlighted issues with the plea's facts, sentencing guidelines, and restitution commitments. They seek an independent monitor selected by the judge rather than the DOJ to ensure Boeing's compliance. Boeing and the DOJ declined to comment on the objections. The fatal 737 MAX crashes took place in 2018 and 2019 in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Reuters 

Venezuela opposition says it trusts military to ensure respect for election result. Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez on Thursday expressed confidence that the military would respect the outcome of Sunday’s presidential election. Gonzalez, backed by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, has gained support, even from former supporters of President Nicolas Maduro. However, concerns about electoral fairness remain due to actions by electoral authorities and arrests of opposition campaign staff. Gonzalez believes in a decisive victory and peaceful voting, despite the military's historical support for Maduro. The opposition fears Gonzalez might face restrictions similar to Machado, who was barred from holding public office​. Reuters

U.S. and Canada Intercept Russian and Chinese Bombers on First Joint Mission Off Alaska. U.S. and Canadian fighters intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers off Alaska's coast on Wednesday, marking the first joint mission of this kind near North America. Two Russian TU-95 and two Chinese H-6 bombers entered the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone but did not breach U.S. or Canadian airspace. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted concerns over the growing military cooperation between Russia and China, especially given Beijing's support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. The intercept involved U.S. F-16s and F-35s, along with Canadian CF-18s. This event follows a similar naval patrol near Alaska by Russian and Chinese forces last year​. Wall Street Journal 

U.S. agents in Texas arrest Mexican drug lord 'El Mayo' and El Chapo's son. U.S. federal agents on Thursday arrested the notorious leader of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, as well as the son of his former partner, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, in El Paso, Texas. The arrests mark a victory for U.S. authorities and could potentially alter the Mexican criminal climate. Zambada, the powerful co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, was captured along with Joaquin Guzman Lopez, one of the four sons of El Chapo, who was extradited to the U.S. in 2017 and is serving a life sentence. They face multiple charges, including drug trafficking, notably fentanyl, which is the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45. The arrests occurred after Zambada and Guzman Lopez landed in a private plane in El Paso, where federal agents detained them. Guzman Lopez's arrest follows the earlier capture and extradition of his brother, Ovidio Guzman. Both Zambada and Guzman Lopez were wanted, with rewards of $15 million and $5 million, respectively. Zambada, in his 70s, is known for being a discreet, "old-school" trafficker, while El Chapo's sons and heirs, called Los Chapitos, are flashy and more violent. The power vacuum opened by their arrests could potentially fuel unrest, instability, and violence in Mexico.  The Sinaloa Cartel has established global drug supply chains, sourcing precursor chemicals from China for fentanyl production, and is the biggest supplier of fentanyl to the U.S. Reuters BBC Wall Street Journal Associated Press

EUROPE

Arsonists attack French railways hours before Olympic ceremony. Hours before the Paris Olympics opening ceremony on Friday, arsonists attacked France's high-speed train network, causing significant disruption affecting an estimated 800,000 travelers. Fires were set along lines connecting Paris to Lille, Bordeaux, and Strasbourg, leading the state-owned railway operator, SNCF, to urge travelers to postpone journeys. Repairs are underway, but traffic will be disrupted at least until the weekend. There is no immediate claim of responsibility. Transport Minister Patrice Vergriete condemned the acts as criminal, and Sports Minister Amelie Oudea-Castera called the vandalism "appalling." Over 45,000 police, 10,000 soldiers, and 2,000 private security agents are securing the Olympics. Reuters Associated Press New York Times Bloomberg  Reuters Wall Street JournalThe Cipher Brief

With uncertainty across the Atlantic, Europe worries about its own security. Donald Trump's 2016 suggestion to possibly not honor NATO commitments raised alarms within the alliance. With his "America First" approach, Europe realized it must enhance its own defense capabilities. The situation evolved with Trump's presidency highlighting U.S. military support as uncertain, Russia's invasion of Ukraine emphasizing eastern threats, and the U.S. focusing more on China. European leaders like Josep Borrell now advocate for Europe to take greater responsibility for its security. NATO's structure, traditionally led by the U.S., may shift towards European nations shouldering more of the burden. This shift is underscored by increased European defense spending and strategic autonomy. Associated Press

Hungary quietly takes €1B loan from Chinese banks. Hungary secured a €1 billion loan from three Chinese banks this spring, the largest in Budapest's history. The loan from the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Hungarian branch of the Bank of China was drawn on April 19 and must be repaid within three years. This borrowing aligns with Hungary's deepening ties with Beijing, which has invested €16 billion in the country. The loan supports infrastructure and energy investments, maintaining Hungary's debt-to-GDP ratio at 28.9%. Hungary's public debt is at a record high of €140 billion, with a budget deficit of 6.7% of gross domestic product. Politico

Russia moves towards letting foreign banks open branches in Russia. Russian lawmakers have given initial approval to a bill allowing foreign banks to open branches in Russia, aiming to ease cross-border settlement issues exacerbated by Western sanctions. These sanctions, imposed due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, blocked major Russian banks from the SWIFT global payments system. The proposed legislation would permit foreign banks to establish branches with a security deposit of 1 billion roubles (nearly $12 million), restrict foreign staff to 50%, and prohibit opening accounts for individuals. Reuters

Kremlin Uses Olympic Ban as Another Arrow to Shoot at the West. Only 15 Russian athletes will compete under a "neutral" designation at the Paris Olympics, which the Kremlin frames as a Western adversarial act. Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to their ban, marking a sharp decline from their previous strong Olympic presence. Russian state TV downplays the Games, while the Kremlin accuses the West of hypocrisy. The International Olympic Committee’s participation criteria exclude many Russian and Belarusian athletes. The decision has sparked debate in Russia and increased nationalist sentiment, mirroring the Olympic boycotts of the 1980s. New York Times

Michelin Red Star: The Insider reveals identity of arrested Russian chef-agent who planned “destabilizing” acts at Paris Olympic Games. Kirill Griaznov, a Russian lawyer-turned-chef trained at Le Cordon Bleu, was arrested for planning to disrupt the Paris Olympics on behalf of Russian intelligence. French authorities charged him with espionage after uncovering his ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Griaznov’s plans were revealed during a drunken conversation in Bulgaria. French investigators suspect his mission aimed to destabilize the Olympics, reflecting ongoing tensions linked to France’s support for Ukraine. Griaznov faces up to 30 years in prison if convicted. The Insider

French police arrest second 18-year-old man suspected of planning attacks. France's anti-terror police arrested a second 18-year-old man on Thursday for planning attacks against people. This arrest follows another made earlier in the week. While the connection to the upcoming Paris Olympics was not mentioned, France remains on high alert as it prepares for the event. The suspects were in contact both in person and online, and authorities are investigating the seriousness of their plans​. Reuters

Athens signs deal to buy 20 US-made F-35 jets in major military overhaul. Greece has approved the purchase of 20 F-35 fighter jets from the United States. Defense Minister Nikos Dendias highlighted the jets as a powerful deterrent. The deal, including support, will cost around $3.5 billion, with deliveries starting in 2028. Greece also has the option to buy 20 more jets, potentially totaling $8.6 billion. This move follows Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program due to its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system. Associated Press

OPINION–NATO Wakes Up to the Chinese Threat. Chels Michta writes that Europe cannot limit itself to regional concerns amid growing Chinese-Russian threats. European security is increasingly tied to Asian security. NATO's recent actions, including rebuking China for aiding Russia and integrating Indo-Pacific partners, highlight this shift. With nations like the UK and France increasing military presence in Asia and deepening defense cooperation, the Atlantic and Pacific security landscapes are merging. A broader global alliance against both Russian and Chinese aggression is forming, signaling a transformative approach to international security. Center for European Policy Analysis

Proposal to allow use of arms at Polish border fuels rights concerns. Polish lawmakers on Friday will vote on a bill that would allow security services to use weapons against migrants at the Belarus border. Though the bill has public support, it faces criticism for potentially violating human rights. Warsaw has said it is struggling to counter a sort of hybrid warfare at the border since 2021, with migrants attempting to cross illegally. Both Poland and the European Union blame the crisis on Belarus and Russia, accusing them of sending migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Both nations have rejected this idea. Tensions escalated in June when a Polish soldier was killed, leading to public outcry and the disputed arrest of soldiers who fired warning shots. The proposed bill would permit security forces to use force, including firearms, in emergency situations at the border. Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak endorsed the bill, emphasizing the importance of supporting border security personnel. An IBRiS survey showed that 85.7% of Poles agree troops should be able to use weapons against aggressive migrants. Reuters

Belgian prosecutor says seven terror suspects remain in custody. A Belgian state prosecutor spokesperson announced Friday that seven individuals detained in the nation on Thursday for suspected terrorism remain in custody as a judge decides on possible charges. The detentions followed police raids in Antwerp, Liege, Ghent, and the Brussels region. While Belgian media speculated on a link to the upcoming Paris Olympic Games, the prosecutor did not confirm this connection. The suspects are accused of preparing a terrorist attack, though no specific targets were identified. The French anti-terrorism prosecutor confirmed no related arrests or searches occurred in France. This situation recalls past incidents where Belgium was a planning and coordination base for major attacks, including the 2015 Paris attacks and the 2016 Brussels airport bombings. Notably, several perpetrators of these attacks were Belgian nationals or residents. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Rockets fired at Iraq's Ain al-Asad airbase, no casualties.U.S. and Iraqi sources announced that several rockets were launched towards Iraq's Ain al-Asad airbase, which houses American-led forces, on Thursday. No damage or casualties were reported, and the base itself was not hit. This incident followed a military summit in Washington where U.S. and Iraqi officials discussed reducing the coalition's presence, which was formed a decade ago to combat ISIS. An official announcement on the closure of the coalition is expected soon. Iran-aligned Iraqi factions are pressing for a rapid drawdown of the coalition's 2,500 troops, aiming for a full withdrawal. The U.S. and Iraq plan to transition to a bilateral security relationship, with some soldiers likely remaining in an advisory capacity. The U.S. returned to the nation in 2014 to fight ISIS. Since the Israel-Hamas conflict began on Oct. 7, Iran-backed Iraqi groups have attacked bases housing U.S. troops multiple times. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s foreign minister says ties with Japan entering ‘critical stage.’ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday argued that China-Japan relations are at a critical juncture and risk retreating if not advanced. During talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa at the ASEAN Summit in Laos, Wang urged Tokyo to develop an "objective and correct understanding” of Beijing and adopt a positive and rational policy toward China. Kamikawa acknowledged the potential for cooperation but noted unresolved issues, particularly Japan's alignment with U.S. semiconductor export curbs on China, which has angered Beijing. Kamikawa clarified that Japan's restrictions are not targeted at any specific country and expressed willingness to maintain constructive communication with China. Kamikawa also highlighted Japan's readiness to collaborate with China in promoting regional stability and prosperity amid global and regional conflicts. Reuters

U.S. and allies say North Korea’s hackers are stealing sensitive military secrets in espionage campaign. A North Korean hacker unit, identified as Anadriel or APT45, has been conducting a global cyber spy campaign to steal clandestine military secrets, backing Pyongyang's banned nuclear weapons program, according to a Thursday joint advisory from the U.S., Britain, and South Korea. These hackers, part of North Korea's intelligence agency, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, have targeted a wide range of defense and engineering firms, including manufacturers of military equipment and systems. Notable breaches include NASA and U.S. Air Force bases. The advisory warns that APT45 continues to pose a threat worldwide. Pyongyang has a history of using hacking to seize sensitive military information. The unit has also used ransomware against U.S. hospitals and healthcare companies to fund their operations, using common phishing techniques and computer exploits to gain access to targeted firms' systems. This cyber espionage operation underscores the commitment of North Korean state-sponsored actors to advance their military and nuclear ambitions. Reuters  South China Morning Post

U.S. charges North Korean national with cyberattacks on NASA. The U.S. Justice Department on Thursday announced that it charged a North Korean suspect, known as Rim Jong Hyok, for conspiring to access American computer networks and money laundering to generate funds for further cyberattacks on NASA and U.S. military bases. Rim is believed to be linked to North Korea’s military intelligence agency, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, which Washington sanctioned in 2015. He remains in North Korea, making his arrest unlikely. The U.S. has offered a $10 million reward for information leading to his capture. Rim's ransomware scheme involved encrypting files on computers businesses, such a hospital in Kansas, then demanding large sums of money to restore access. An indictment in Kansas details his involvement in a long-term cybercrime spree. The ransom payments funded further cyber intrusions into government agencies and military-related companies, including those with aerospace, missile, and uranium processing technologies. Two years ago, Rim and his associates accessed NASA's Office of Inspector General portal for over three months, extracting over 17 gigabytes of data using malware. Rim and his team also hacked defense companies in the U.S. and South Korea, Randolph Air Force Base in Texas, and Robins Air Force Base in Georgia. American authorities have seized more than $600,000 in virtual currency from accounts used in the cyber plot, which will be returned to the victims. Washington Post Reuters

South Korea estimates that North Korea's economy rose in 2023 after years of decline. North Korea's economy experienced growth in 2023, expanding by 3.1% after three years of contraction, according to estimates by South Korea's central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK). This improvement for Pyongyang, the highest since 2016, was attributed to increased trade with China following the easing of COVID-19 border controls, favorable weather conditions, and a reduction in pandemic-related restrictions. Despite ongoing economic sanctions, North Korea's gross domestic product had previously shrunk by 0.2% in 2022, 0.1% in 2021, and 4.5% in 2020. Concerns about food shortages during the pandemic were underscored by leader Kim Jong Un. Experts view the 2023 rebound as potentially temporary, though continued trade with China and expanding cooperation with Russia could sustain growth. Since 1991, the BOK has been providing estimates of North Korea's economic activity, using  sources such as intelligence, foreign trading agencies, and data from South Korea's unification ministry. Reuters

U.S. military constructing infrastructure in Australia’s north amid efforts to project strength. The U.S. military is erecting infrastructure in Australia’s strategically located north in order to convey its power into the South China Sea in case of a crisis with Beijing, as revealed by documents and interviews with U.S. and Australian defense officials. Key facilities are being constructed at Darwin and RAAF Base Tindal to support B-52 bombers, F-22 fighters, and other aircraft, with over $300 million allocated for these projects in 2024 and 2025. Additional plans include up to $2 billion for projects across northern Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Timor Leste to counter China’s expanding footprint and potential aggression. Darwin, closer to the Philippines than Australia's capital, hosts a U.S. Marine Rotational Force, while Tindal is crucial for airpower and has hosted U.S. jets. The projects aim to disperse U.S. forces across the area. Australian officials confirmed the U.S. funding, stressing that the bases will remain Australian, though usable by international partners. Australia is also investing A$14 billion to upgrade its northern bases. Reuters

India’s Modi says Pakistan using "terrorism, proxy war" to stay relevant. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday argued that Pakistan is trying to stay relevant through "terrorism and proxy war.” He said that the nation had not learned from its own history and warned that supporters of alleged "terrorism" would never be successful. Modi asserted that India would give the "enemy" tough response. He made these comments while speaking in Kargil, a Himalayan region, to mark 25 years of New Delhi’s brief conflict with Pakistan. Reuters

AFRICA

Sudan's agriculture minister rejects U.N. data, claims there is no famine. Sudanese agriculture minister Abubakr al-Bushra has denied the presence of famine in Sudan, questioning United Nations-backed data indicating that 755,000 people face catastrophic hunger, and criticizing aid agencies' calls to overrule cross-border delivery restrictions. Despite Sudan's hunger crisis, worsened by the ongoing war, al-Bushra argued that 755,000 people represent a small fraction of the 50 total million population. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reported in June that half the population faces acute hunger, and identified 14 areas at risk of famine, where catastrophic hunger, accompanied by severe child malnutrition and starvation deaths, affects at least 20% of the population. Al-Bushra doubted the accuracy of data from Rapid Support Forces-controlled areas and claimed malnutrition indicators were undetermined. An independent committee could declare a famine based on IPC data, potentially prompting the Security Council to override army restrictions on aid deliveries. However, al-Bushra rejected such measures, fearing they could open borders controlled by the militia. Reuters

U.S. imposes sanctions of insurgent group in Congo. The U.S. Treasury Department is imposing sanctions on a coalition of rebel organizations, including the Congo River Alliance (AFC), who it alleged fueled violence and attempted to overthrow the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The AFC, launched in December, is linked with the M23 insurgency, which has already been sanctioned by the U.S. The Congolese army has been in a constant struggle with the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency and other militias for over two years. Rwanda denies accusations that it supports rebel groups like M23. The U.S. Treasury's move targets those perpetuating instability and humanitarian crises. The sanctions also target Corneille Nangaa, a former Congo election commission chief now leading the AFC, M23 leader Bertrand Bisimwa, and Twirwaneho, an armed group collaborating with M23. The sanctions freeze U.S. assets of those targeted and prohibit Americans from dealing with them.  Reuters 

CYBER & TECH

E.U. risk gauging report evaluates cybersecurity in Europe’s electricity and telecommunications sectors. The European Union backed by the European Commission and ENISA, unveiled a risk assessment report on the cybersecurity and resilience of Europe's telecommunications and electricity sectors. Key concerns include supply chain security risks, a shortage of cybersecurity professionals, and threats from cybercriminals and state-sponsored actors. The report highlights dependencies on critical components from outside the EU and vulnerabilities due to less secure renewable energy technologies. For the telecommunications sector, risks include threats to mobile and fixed networks, the internet's core infrastructure, and satellite communications, with a significant focus on the potential for ransomware and espionage. Vulnerabilities in 5G networks and the increasing number of IoT devices also pose significant risks. In the electricity sector, the highest risks involve cyberattacks and insider threats targeting entities connected to the grid. The growing reliance on renewable energy sources and the interconnectedness of electricity networks heighten the need for cybersecurity measures. The report suggests 17 improvements across four areas: enhancing cybersecurity posture and resilience, collective intelligence, cross-sectoral crisis management, and follow-up risk assessments. It recommends better sharing of best practices, increased cooperation with technical networks and law enforcement, and addressing supply chain security. Industrial Cyber

DOE reveals evaluation of Cyber Asset Surface Management Tool runZero. The Department of Energy (DOE) has published a report on the effectiveness of a cybersecurity tool, runZero, created to protect the energy sector from cyberattacks. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory evaluated runZero as part of the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator (CECA) program’s second cohort. They discovered that the tool could scan and identify devices on industrial control systems (ICS) networks without affecting their performance. RunZero is a configurable platform that employs active scanning, as well as passive sampling, to identify on-site devices, cloud-based resources, and other IT and operational technology assets within a network, all without impeding operations. This tool aims to improve asset owners' visibility into their networks, enhancing their understanding of system risks. Dan LaGraffe, deputy director at DOE’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response, emphasized the importance of adopting innovative solutions to counter evolving cybersecurity threats as the energy grid modernizes. Executive Gov

French Prime Minister warns of inexorable cyberattacks on the Paris Olympics. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who met with ANSSI agents and Secretary of State for Digital Affairs Marina Ferrari, said Thursday that France is committed to minimizing the impact of cyberattacks on the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Recognizing that the event will be a target for cyberattacks, Attal highlighted efforts to limit their scope and protect spectators, athletes, sports sites, and digital spaces. He expressed gratitude to France's National Information Systems Security Agency for their dedication. The 2024 Olympics will run from July 26 to Aug. 8, followed by the Paralympics from August 28 to September 8. Cyber News

Russia increasingly targeting Europe with cyber attacks exploiting Microsoft infrastructure. Cybersecurity firm Heimdal has released new research revealing a significant increase in brute force attacks against institutional and corporate networks all over Europe, primarily originating from Russia. These attacks, which guess weak passwords through a process of trial and error, have been used by Russian threat actors to exploit Microsoft infrastructure undetected and engage in a hybrid war against Europe. The brute force attacks have occurred since at least May, with more than half of them coming from Moscow IP addresses. They target cities in the U.K., Lithuania, Denmark, and Hungary. Other attack sources include IP addresses in Amsterdam and Brussels, with major ISPs like Telefonica LLC and IPX-FZCO being exploited. The attacks utilize newly compromised IPs and previously abused ones, employing SMBv1, RDP, and RDP alternative port crawlers to crack weak or default credentials. Attackers aim to exfiltrate sensitive data, disrupt services, deploy malware, and achieve financial gain, engaging in seek-and-destroy operations, critical asset disruption, and sabotage. It is possible that they are being supported by allies such as China. Tech Radar 

FAA says SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket cleared to return to space, flight operations. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) cleared SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket to return to space and regular flight operations after being grounded due to a rare mid-flight failure on July 11. The FAA found no public safety issues in the anomaly. The investigation continues. SpaceX plans to launch the rocket as soon as Saturday. The grounding followed an incident in which the rocket broke apart in space, causing the loss of its Starlink satellite payload. This incident marked the first failure in over seven years for Falcon 9, the world's most used rocket. SpaceX attributed the failure to a faulty component that will be removed. Falcon 9 is crucial for NASA missions, being the only U.S. rocket capable of sending crews to the International Space Station. NASA plans its next astronaut mission in August, using SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsule atop a Falcon 9 rocket. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & contributed to this report.

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