Report for Friday, July 19, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Global cyber outage grounds flights and disrupts businesses.

Trump and Zelensky have a phone call scheduled on Friday, sources say.

NATO’s Stoltenberg: Europe must brace for decade of war in Ukraine.

Israel bombards refugee camps in Gaza, killing at least 21 people.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Outgoing NCTC Director Lays Out Today’s Very Real Terrorist Threat.The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel bombards refugee camps in central Gaza. Tanks push deeper. Israeli forces bombarded Gaza City in the north on Thursday, killing at least 21 people. The Israeli military said its forces killed two senior Islamic Jihad commanders in two airstrikes in Gaza City, including one whom it said had taken part in the Oct. 7 attack. A barrage of Israeli airstrikes killed 16 in Zawayda town, Bureij and Nuseirat camps and the city of Deir-Al-Balah. In Rafah, residents said Israeli tanks advanced deeper in the western side of the city and took position on a hilltop there. The Israeli military said forces located several tunnels and killed several gunmen. The fighting has pushed the 60-bed Red Cross field hospital in Rafah to the brink of capacity. More than nine months into the war, Hamas fighters still attack Israeli forces on the ground, occasionally firing rocket barrages into Israel. Islamic Jihad said it fired missiles at two southern Israeli communities Thursday. The armed wing of Hamas said it fired mortar bombs at Israeli forces in southwest Rafah. Reuters Al Jazeera

Netanyahu makes surprise visit to troops in Rafah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a surprise visit to troops in southern Gaza Thursday. His message: Israel must retain control of a strip of land along the border with Egypt. Associated Press

White House: Biden to meet Netanyahu in Washington next week. U.S. President Joe Biden expects to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Monday, depending on his recovery from COVID-19, the White House said Thursday. Netanyahu will be in Washington next week for a July 24 address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress. Vice President Kamala Harris will also meet Netanyahu while he is in Washington, a White House official said. Reuters 

Far-right Israeli official visits contested Jerusalem holy site. Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site. He said he went to the contested Jerusalem hilltop compound where the Al-Aqsa Mosque stands to pray for the return of Israeli hostages from Gaza, "but without a reckless deal, without surrendering." Prior to his membership in Netanyahu's Cabinet, the nationalist was convicted eight times on criminal charges, including racism and supporting a terrorist organization. As a teen he espoused views considered so extreme that he was banned from serving his compulsory military service. Associated Press 

Military claims Tel Aviv explosion was an apparent drone attack, Houthis claim responsibility. Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a drone strike in central Tel Aviv close to the U.S. Embassy, resulting in at least 10 injuries and one death. The Friday strike is part of the Houthis' ongoing attacks on Israel, which they conduct in solidarity with Palestinians amid the Gaza conflict. While the Houthis assert that their new drones can evade Israel's defenses, the Israeli military attributed the strike to human error, maintaining confidence in their defense systems. This was the first Houthi drone not to be intercepted by Israel or Western allies. The incident, which Israel described as a terror assault designed to kill civilians, occurred hours after an Israeli airstrike killed a Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon. Associated Press Reuters

U.N.’s highest court set to issue opinion on Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. The United Nations’ International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to deliver an advisory opinion on Friday regarding the legal ramifications of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, as requested by the U.N. General Assembly. Although the ICJ's advisory opinions are non-binding, they hold significant influence under international law. A finding of the occupation being illegal could reduce international support for Israel. In a separate case, the ICJ ordered Israel in May to stop its Rafah offensive in Gaza, a ruling Israel condemned. The General Assembly's late 2022 request asked the ICJ to evaluate Israel's prolonged occupation, settlement, and annexation of Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem. Reuters

Mounting home demolitions and settler attacks plunge a Palestinian village into crisis. Umm al-Khair, a Bedouin village in the West Bank, has been pushed into crisis by recurrent settler attacks, and by Israeli military bulldozers. Many have been displaced, and reliable access to water and electricity is hard to come by. Several residents have been injured in settler attacks, and the village’s water pipe has been cut or tampered with more than once. Israeli soldiers reportedly observe without intervening. The Bedouin communities face dual threats of Israeli settler violence and state-backed demolitions, pushing many from their land and hindering the prospects of an independent Palestinian state. The situation has worsened since the start of the Gaza war last year, and the settlers have significant influence in the Israeli government. Residents describe attacks, including physical violence and damage to infrastructure, especially since the establishment of an unauthorized settler outpost nearby. Bedouin villagers, displaced from the Negev in 1948, hold land contracts from the Jordanian period, asserting their legal right to stay. However, the Israeli military and settlers view these village structures as illegal. Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

NATO chief: Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war. NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, warned that Europe must be prepared for a decade-long war in Ukraine. Speaking to the BBC, he highlighted the paradox that increased Western commitment could expedite resolution. Stoltenberg, who ends his 10-year tenure in October, emphasized the need for European NATO members to boost support amid potential US funding cuts if Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. He urged sustained backing to convey to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Western support is enduring. Stoltenberg also announced a NATO command unit in Germany, operational from September, to coordinate support for Ukraine. Amid these calls for support, Germany plans to nearly halve its military aid to Ukraine next year. Stoltenberg remains confident in the US commitment to NATO, citing strong bipartisan support, while urging European allies to invest more in defense. BBC

Putin Counted on Waning U.S. Interest in Ukraine. It Might Be a Winning Bet. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy hinges on waning U.S. interest in Ukraine. Amid President Joe Biden's political crises and Donald Trump's anti-Ukraine stance, American foreign policy seems to align more with Putin's expectations. At the Republican National Convention Thursday night, Trump renewed his pledge to end the fighting and channeled Mr. Putin in warning of “World War III.” Although most Americans support aiding Ukraine, it’s not a priority issue. Putin's historical claims on Ukraine and the belief that the U.S. will eventually abandon Kyiv drive his war efforts. Despite previous miscalculations, Putin continues to hope for a shift in U.S. policy. New York Times

Trump and Zelensky have a phone call scheduled on Friday, sources say. Former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are scheduled for a phone call on Friday, their first since Trump left office. This discussion occurs amid European concerns about Trump’s potential Ukraine policy if he wins the November presidential election. Trump has claimed he could settle the Ukraine war quickly but has criticized US military aid to Kyiv. Last week, Zelensky noted the importance of the upcoming election. He said that President Job Biden and Trump are “very different” but both support democracy which is why he claimed: “I think (Russian President Vladimir) Putin will hate both of them.” CNN

Zelensky addresses UK Cabinet, urges Starmer to 'show leadership' on long-range strikes. President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the British Cabinet on Friday, urging Prime Minister Keir Starmer to support Ukraine in using Western-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russia. Zelensky highlighted the need to lift restrictions on Western weapons for better front-line security. The U.S. has permitted using certain American-supplied weapons near the Russian border, while the U.K. has provided Storm Shadow missiles. Starmer emphasized compliance with international law. Zelensky’s visit, coinciding with the European Political Community summit, also saw the U.K. announce sanctions on tankers aiding Russia’s oil trade, supported by the EU and 44 European countries. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine Loses Hard-Won Position Near Dnipro River in the South. Ukrainian troops have lost their hard-won position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near Kherson, following months of bloody fighting. The operation to establish a foothold in the village of Krynky was controversial and deemed difficult to justify. Despite initial secrecy and attempts to disrupt Russian logistics, the mission faced significant challenges, including dangerous river crossings and relentless enemy fire. Ukrainian soldiers criticized the operation for being brutal and ineffective, with many lives lost and limited territorial gains. Military analysts argue the effort was more politically motivated, aimed at demonstrating Ukraine's offensive capabilities, but ultimately it lacked the resources for sustained success. New York Times

Ukrainian army acknowledges withdraw from Urozhaine. Ukraine on Thursday acknowledged withdrawing from Urozhaine in the eastern Donetsk region due to relentless Russian attacks. The village, left in ruins, was impossible to defend, said spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn. Despite Ukraine’s improved firepower from U.S. military aid, Russian forces are making gains in Donetsk. Ukraine is adopting a strategy of retreating to stronger defensive positions while awaiting more Western weapons. Associated Press 

Zelensky: Lifting ban on strikes on Russian territory did not lead to escalation. President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the Fourth European Political Community summit in the U.K., said Thursday that Western permission for Ukraine to hit targets within Russia near the Ukrainian border prevented war escalation. Addressing leaders from 43 European countries, he urged allies to allow strikes on deeper Russian targets. The U.S. allowed Ukraine to use American-supplied HIMARS rockets near the Kharkiv border, but restricted long-range weapons. Zelensky argued fewer restrictions would force Russia towards peace and reduce its war capabilities. Despite concerns, he emphasized the success in halting Russia's Kharkiv offensive without escalating the conflict. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine rushes to create AI-enabled war drones. In Ukraine, startups are developing AI systems to enhance drone warfare, aiming to overcome Russian signal jamming and enable UAVs to operate in swarms. AI assists drones in target identification, terrain navigation, and coordinated operations, potentially allowing large-scale deployments. Companies like Swarmer are creating networks where drones execute actions with minimal human intervention. This technology addresses challenges such as managing multiple drones and protecting pilots near front lines. While AI drones could significantly improve hit rates and operational efficiency, they raise ethical concerns about reduced human oversight in warfare. The goal is to produce cost-effective AI-targeting systems for widespread use along Ukraine's extensive front lines. Reuters 

Ukraine may have surpassed Russia in number of drones, commander says. Ukraine has likely surpassed Russia in the number of drones, according to Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vadym Sukharevskyi. In the first half of 2024, Ukrainian soldiers received six times more drones than last year, aiming to produce at least 1 million drones in 2024. Ukraine currently tests and uses over 165 types of drones on the battlefield. Despite Russia’s ties with China for component replacement, Ukraine's investment in drone technology has been crucial in striking Russian targets and enhancing warfare capabilities. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 25 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least seven civilians and injured 25, including children, regional authorities said Friday. In Donetsk Oblast, five were killed and seven injured. Kharkiv Oblast saw nine injuries, including a 14-year-old, with significant property damage. In Kherson Oblast, two were killed and eight injured, including a child, with extensive property damage. Sumy Oblast reported one injury from a drone attack. Attacks also occurred in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, but no casualties were reported. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian drone hits Russian monastery and kills one person, regional governor says. A Ukrainian drone struck the St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery in Russia's Kursk region, killing a 60-year-old parishioner, authorities said Friday. The attack occurred near the Ukrainian border. Kursk frequently faces attacks from Kyiv's forces. Founded in 1671, the monastery once hosted writer Fyodor Dostoevsky, who featured his conversations with monks in "The Brothers Karamazov." Reuters

Ukrainian aerial, naval drones attack Russian base in Crimea. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a successful drone attack on a Russian coastal defense base in Crimea on Thursday. The base on Bay Donuzlav was struck by aerial and naval drones, damaging key infrastructure and hindering Russian naval training exercises. This attack highlights Crimea's vulnerability and has prompted Russia to withdraw much of its Black Sea Fleet from the peninsula, with the last patrol ship leaving on Monday. Kyiv Independent 

ANALYSIS–Russian Oil Is Still Paying for Putin’s War. Despite Western sanctions, Russia continues to fund its war efforts through energy revenues. Sanctions reduced Russian energy export earnings from €1 billion daily pre-war to €660 million, but revenues remain stable. Russia maintains exports mainly to Asia, while Europe indirectly supports through tanker purchases. Efforts to cap Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel were initially effective but have since faltered. Russia circumvents sanctions using shadow tankers, and AI advancements in targeting systems. Sanction enforcement needs improvement to cut Russian revenues. Despite a decline in natural gas exports, Russian LNG is re-entering Europe, driven by supply concerns. Foreign Policy

Russia says 'let's be realistic' about Trump plan to end Ukraine war. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that Donald Trump's claim to quickly end the Ukraine war should be viewed realistically, citing his unfulfilled Middle East peace promises during his presidency. Zakharova noted pre-election rhetoric should be separated from official statements and mentioned Trump's ambitious yet unsuccessful "deal of the century" for the Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Trump's comments but expressed uncertainty about the specifics. The Kremlin reiterated its willingness to end the war if Ukraine ceded four annexed regions, a condition Ukraine rejects. Reuters

Ukraine government proposes first wartime tax hikes to fund defense. Ukraine's government has proposed its first wartime tax increase to fund defense spending as the war with Russia nears its 29-month mark. The proposed budget changes for 2024 include a $11.9 billion hike in defense spending, raising the total to approximately $41 billion (1.7 trillion hryvnias). The proposal requires parliamentary approval and President Zelenskiy's signature. The new taxes include a war tax increase from 1.5% to 5% for individuals, additional duties on imports, and higher excise duties on fuel. The government aims to raise 140 billion hryvnias ($3.4 billion) in additional revenue and 362 billion hryvnias ($8.7 billion) from reducing the shadow economy and domestic borrowing. Proposed budget cuts include saving 65.7 billion hryvnias ($1.6 billion), primarily on foreign debt payments. Ukraine continues to rely on international aid for social and humanitarian spending, having received about $89 billion from Western partners since February 2022. Reuters

Zelensky to BBC: We have to work with the U.S. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in an interview published Thursday that a victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. election would be challenging, but emphasized the necessity of working with the U.S. despite Trump's stance. Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance has expressed indifference toward Ukraine. Vance is on record as saying "I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other." Zelensky expressed gratitude for U.S. support under President Joe Biden. He also noted the importance of F-16 fighter jets pledged by allies to countering Russian air superiority. Reuters 

Ukraine hopes to end 'hot stage' of war by end of 2024, Zelensky says. In the BBC interview, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that, with partner support, Ukraine could end the hot stage of the war with Russia by the end of 2024. He advocates for diplomatic pressure on Russia, while the Kremlin demands Ukraine's withdrawal from annexed regions, which Kyiv rejects. Kyiv Independent

'A very big Russia problem' – NATO commander warns of post-Ukraine war threat to US and Europe. At the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Thursday, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, warned of a persistent "very, very big Russia problem" regardless of the Ukraine war's outcome. He emphasized ongoing Western efforts to contain Russian aggression. German advisor Jens Plotner echoed this, predicting a prolonged conflict initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kyiv Independent

As Trump's victory becomes more likely, efforts underway to sway him to Ukraine's side. As Donald Trump’s potential victory looms, efforts are intensifying to sway his stance on Ukraine. Boris Johnson and other pro-Ukraine advocates are engaging with Trump, emphasizing the importance of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. Despite Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, expressing indifference towards Ukraine, influential figures like Lindsey Graham and Mike Pompeo are pushing for continued military aid. Ukrainian officials and supporters are strategizing to influence Trump’s circle and his base, including evangelical Christians. The goal is to secure ongoing U.S. support, crucial for Ukraine’s defense and to counter any potential shifts in American foreign policy. Kyiv Independent

Norway Leader Says No US President Wants to Abandon Ukraine. Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said Thursday that he does not foresee any U.S. president withdrawing support for Ukraine or NATO, as the defense alliance benefits all members. Addressing concerns over waning U.S. support following Donald Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate, Store emphasized that any responsible leader would recognize the importance of continued backing. He also mentioned Norway’s commitment to Ukraine, with potential expansion of its $7 billion aid package and increased defense spending. Store highlighted the necessity for Europe to enhance its defense efforts to demonstrate the value of the NATO partnership to the U.S. Bloomberg

Europe Leaders Cast Wary Eye to Trump’s Tepid Ukraine Stance. European leaders are concerned about Donald Trump’s potential second presidency and its implications for Ukraine’s defense. Trump's lukewarm stance on European defense, alongside his selection of J.D. Vance as running mate, raises fears of reduced U.S. support. The European Political Community summit on Thursday focused on enhancing security cooperation, with leaders advocating for European self-reliance. While President Joe Biden firmly supports Ukraine, Trump’s past NATO criticisms worry European officials. European nations are increasing defense spending, with NATO establishing a command center to aid Ukraine. Bloomberg 

UK defense firms discuss boosting support for Ukraine with Zelensky. Senior executives from British defense firms, including BAE and Babcock, met Thursday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in London to discuss increasing military support amid the war with Russia. The meeting, part of the European Political Community summit, included other defense companies and British ministers. Defense Minister John Healey emphasized the need to boost military production. Babcock will extend its contract with the British defense ministry. Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for deeper defense cooperation to support Ukraine. Reuters

Zelensky meets Britain's King Charles. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday met with Britain's King Charles, thanking the UK for being one of Ukraine's closest allies. Zelensky attended the Fourth European Political Community summit at Blenheim Palace and expressed gratitude for the UK's support. "The United Kingdom remains one of Ukraine's closest and most important allies. We appreciate all the support provided to the Ukrainian people," Zelensky said on social media. Kyiv Independent

UK's Starmer hails European unity on Ukraine, tackling migration. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer highlighted European unity on Ukraine and tackling migration at the European Political Community summit on Thursday. He emphasized deeper defense and security cooperation to better support Ukraine and curb illegal migration. Starmer's efforts are part of a strategy to reset post-Brexit ties with the European Union, amid concerns of reduced U.S. support for Ukraine under a potential Donald Trump presidency. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated calls for long-range strikes on Russia. European leaders welcomed Starmer's approach, viewing it as an opportunity for a relationship reset. Starmer also announced increased UK participation in Europol and new funding to address migration issues. Reuters 

EU calls on Russia to admit responsibility for downing of MH17 over Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Permanent Council on Thursday urged Russia to accept responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine, marking the tragedy's 10th anniversary. A Russian Buk missile shot down the plane, killing 298 people. The EU called for Russian cooperation in delivering justice. The Hague District Court sentenced three individuals to life imprisonment in absentia for their roles. Russia denies involvement, and those responsible remain at large. President Volodymyr Zelensky commemorated the event, highlighting the global threat posed by Russian aggression. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine signs long-term security deals with Czechia, Slovenia. At the Fourth European Political Community summit on Thursday, Ukraine signed 10-year bilateral security agreements with the Czech Republic and Slovenia, joining 23 other nations in similar treaties to support Kyiv against Russian aggression. These agreements include long-term military and non-military assistance, cooperation in military technology, and annual training for up to 4,000 Ukrainian military personnel. The Czech Republic also partnered with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for regional rebuilding and plans to open a diplomatic mission in Dnipro. Slovenia will allocate €5 million for humanitarian aid and economic recovery. Kyiv Independent 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, July 18, 2024. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of Wednesday-Thursday. Rosgvardia proposed granting Russian Central Bank leadership the right to carry automatic weapons and handguns on Wednesday. Kremlin officials are expanding the geographic scope of Russia's proposed alternative "Eurasian security architecture." The US continues to build a partnership with Armenia, sparking critical reactions from Kremlin officials.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces have made minor advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and near Kharkiv City, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Hulyaipole. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

Trump Calls for Unity but Shifts to Familiar Attacks. Donald Trump accepted the GOP nomination for a third time on Thursday, just days after surviving an assassination attempt. In his speech, Trump described the shooting, expressing gratitude for surviving and calling for national unity. He positioned himself as the solution to a deeply troubled nation, emphasizing confidence, strength, and hope. While initially seeking to unify, Trump quickly reverted to familiar themes, attacking illegal immigration, criminal indictments against him, and political rivals like "Crazy Nancy Pelosi." Despite advisers' suggestions to avoid discussing the 2020 election, Trump couldn't resist, reiterating false claims about election fraud and criticizing President Joe Biden's handling of the pandemic, which he termed the "China virus." Trump portrayed Biden’s administration as disastrous, highlighting rising prices and foreign policy failures. Wall Street Journal Washington Post New York Times 

World leaders prepare for a Trump presidency. The speakers at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday supported Israel but ignored Ukraine. Donald Trump’s reelection was expected to benefit Israel’s right-wing government. Ukrainian leaders are trying to line up support from other Western allies. Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador complained that Republican speakers are blaming U.S. problems on Latin American migrants. Beijing braced for trade problems as Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, pledged to “stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of our hard-working citizens.” Trump had good relations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the United Arab Emirates would also welcome Trump’s return. New York Times 

U.S. sues largest housing provider for migrant children, says Texas-based nonprofit rife with sexual abuse, harassment. The U.S. Justice Department has accused employees of Southwest Key Programs Inc., the largest housing provider for unaccompanied migrant children in the U.S., of sexually abusing and harassing children in their care over at least eight years. The shocking allegations, which involve pervasive rape, solicitation of sex and photos, threats, and other abuses, highlight serious misconduct within the organization. Since 2020, at least two employees have been indicted on related criminal charges. Southwest Key has disputed the portrayal of its care for children. The organization operates 29 shelters across Texas, Arizona, and California, and has received over $3 billion in government contracts since 2015. The nonprofit’s facilities house migrant children transferred from Border Patrol custody to Health and Human Services (HHS), which aims to place them with parents or relatives. Recent reports indicate that over 6,200 children are in HHS facilities, though specific numbers for Southwest Key were not disclosed. Associated Press Washington Post CBS ABC

Panama says won’t repatriate migrants illegally crossing Darien Gap without consent. In a blow to a recent agreement with the U.S. tightening immigration, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino announced that migrants entering Panama through the treacherous Darien Gap will only be sent back to their countries if they agree to it. Mulino, who took office on July 1, pushed blame for the migration issue on Washington, arguing that migrants are striving to reach the U.S., not stay in Panama. He noted that his nation cannot forcibly repatriate migrants and explained that repatriation processes are governed by international agreements. He did not, however, divulge details on why the Central American country cannot deport migrants who entered the country illegally. He urged migrants to reconsider continuing their journey and expressed hopes that Venezuela’s upcoming presidential election could reduce the number of Venezuelan migrants crossing the Darien Gap. In 2023, over 500,000 migrants crossed the Darien Gap, and over 212,000 have crossed so far this year. Panama’s border police have installed barbed wire to direct migrants to a single reception point. Associated Press

Venezuelan opposition welcomes release of security chief from jail. Milciades Avila, the security chief for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, has been released from jail after his arrest on charges of gender violence. Avila was detained following an incident where he allegedly used violence against a group of women attempting to attack Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez at a food store. His detainment came shortly before the July 28 election, where Gonzalez is leading in the polls against President Nicolas Maduro. The Venezuelan opposition has accused the government of using arrests to undermine its campaign and hinder a fair election, which the government denies. Machado's lawyer celebrated Avila's release and pledged to continue fighting for justice in Venezuela. The U.S. is closely monitoring the election, linking the lifting of sanctions to the conduct of free elections in Venezuela. Reuters

EUROPE

Starmer opens European summit with warning about Russian aggression. At Blenheim Palace, Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, said European security was “on the line,” promising to “face down aggression on this continent together because the threat from Russia reaches right across Europe.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invoked Winston Churchill and the battle for Britain during World War II. “Will Europe be a continent that neither surrenders nor sells itself to tyrants?” he asked. President Emmanuel Macron of France and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg were among those at the fourth summit of the European Political Community. The group is the brainchild of the French president, who wanted European countries to work more closely together after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. New York Times 

Evan Gershkovich Sentenced to 16 Years in Russian Prison After Wrongful Conviction. Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, was sentenced to 16 years in a high-security penal colony by Russian authorities, accused of espionage in a trial widely condemned by the U.S. as a sham. Despite no public evidence supporting the allegations and Gershkovich's denial of guilt, the Russian court proceeded swiftly. The U.S. government, along with Gershkovich and his employers, have repeatedly refuted the charges and are pushing for his release, alongside fellow American detainee Paul Whelan. The trial and sentence come amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials have suggested Gershkovich is being used as a bargaining chip, with discussions of a possible prisoner swap ongoing.  Wall Street Journal

German budget lowballs military spending. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proposed budget for 2025 calls for a modest increase in defense spending. Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, had asked for an increase of 6.7 billion euros, or $7.3 billion, over the 52 billion euros, or nearly $57 billion. He was given just 1.2 billion euros. The budget proposes that Germany cut its military aid to Ukraine by half in 2025. Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, said Ukraine could instead rely on a $50 billion fund backed by frozen Russian assets that the Group of 7 nations agreed on last month. New York Times 

Russia threatens to deploy nuclear missiles if US puts long-range missiles in Germany. Russia would consider new deployments of nuclear missiles in response to the planned U.S. stationing of long-range conventional weapons in Germany, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying on Thursday. The U.S. said last week that in 2026 it would start deployment of the SM-6, Tomahawk and new hypersonic missiles to demonstrate its commitment to NATO and European defense. Reuters

Kremlin says NATO warships in Black Sea would present a threat to Russia. The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia would consider any plans to establish a permanent presence of NATO warships in the Black Sea as a threat. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the remark when asked by reporters about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's new maritime security strategy. Zelensky has said the Russian Navy must not dominate the Black Sea. Reuters

UK sanctions 11 Russian ships. Britain added 11 new shipping sanctions to its Russia sanctions regime related to the war in Ukraine, an official notice showed on Thursday. The government said the sanctions on ships including Zaliv Amurskiy and SCF Pechora relate to the carrying of oil or oil products from Russia to a third country. The ships are believed to have the flags of Panama, Gabon and the Cook Islands, the government notice said. Reuters 

Ursula von der Leyen re-elected to her second 5-year term as European Commission president. Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected as European Commission president for another five-year term on Thursday, securing 401 votes in the European Parliament, well above the 360 needed. She had the support of the three mainstream, pro-European Union groups: the center-right European People’s Party, the Socialists, and the liberals of Renew. Backing from the Greens was pivotal to von der Leyen’s success, as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, voted against her. She called her supporters “pro-European, pro-Ukraine (and) pro-rule of law.” Von der Leyen will now begin forming her new European Commission. Interviews with candidates will begin in mid-August, followed by evaluations by the European Parliament. The goal is to have the new Commission in place by Nov. 1. Politico Associated Press BBC

Russian prosecutor seeks 18-year sentence for US journalist Gershkovich. A Russian court will soon deliver its verdict in the espionage trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, with prosecutors seeking an 18-year sentence. Gershkovich, a 32-year-old American, denies the spying charges. The trial, which began last month in Yekaterinburg, has been conducted unusually quickly, fueling speculation about a potential U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange. Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 and is accused of gathering secret information for the CIA. He has been held in Moscow's Lefortovo prison since his arrest. The U.S. government and his newspaper reject the allegations. Reuters 

Belarus’s Lukashenko marks 3 decades in power after suppressing opposition, befriending Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for 30 years by harshly suppressing dissent, maintaining Soviet-style economic controls, and aligning with Russia. Dubbed "Europe's last dictator," he has rigged elections, violently crushed protests, and faced Western sanctions. In 2020, widespread protests following his disputed re-election were met with severe crackdowns, resulting in thousands jailed. Despite economic reliance on Russia and internal repression, he plans to run for a seventh term. Lukashenko’s regime is marked by brutal tactics, human rights abuses, and political imprisonment, maintaining power through a blend of guile and brutality, backed by Russian support. Associated Press

France races to head off ISIS-K threat to Paris Olympics. Ahead of the Paris Olympics, French authorities are intensifying efforts to prevent potential ISIS-K threats. Following attacks by Tajik ISIS-K militants in Iran and Moscow, French security services are addressing intelligence gaps by engaging with the Tajik and Central Asian communities in France. They aim to build deeper ties and gather information to thwart possible threats. France has already foiled one attack targeting the Olympics. However, experts warn that excessive pressure on these communities might backfire, potentially increasing the risk of radicalization. Efforts are ongoing to balance security measures with community trust. Reuters

Poland investigating crime against Belarusian opposition figure. Polish prosecutors are investigating a crime against Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushka, involving sections of the penal code on homicide and foreign intelligence activities. The investigation, conducted with Poland's Internal Security Agency, follows increasing threats against Latushka and other pro-democracy activists. This comes amid heightened concerns for opposition figures' safety after an attack on Leonid Volkov in Lithuania. Latushka, sentenced in absentia to 18 years by a Belarusian court, reported two foiled assassination attempts this year. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran engaged in diplomatic drive at U.N. in New York and Middle East. While Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian strengthens regional alliances, Iran’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani is engaging in diplomatic efforts at the United Nations in New York. Kani met Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Rashid Bou Habib on Wednesday, stressing Iran’s support for Lebanon’s stability and security, and Pezeshkian discussed bilateral cooperation with Qatar, highlighting mutual benefits and a shared commitment to dialogue for regional stability. Kani underscored Iran’s support for Palestinian resistance and opposed the expansion of regional conflict, despite Tehran’s backing of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. He urged the U.N. Security Council to end Israeli attacks in Gaza, accusing Israel of destroying over 80% of residential zones, and all infrastructure. Kani reiterated Iran’s commitment to seeking justice for the U.S.-ordered killing of Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.  Jerusalem Post

UKMTO, Ambrey report striking of vessel by projectiles southeast of Yemen's Aden. Unknown projectiles struck a vessel 83 nautical miles southeast of Yemen's Aden early Friday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and British security firm Ambrey. The Singapore-flagged container ship's crew was reported safe. The incident occurred as the ship was transiting northeast along the Gulf of Aden. The ship performed evasive maneuvers and turned off its automatic identification system an hour later. Ambrey suggested the vessel fit the profile of targets typically chosen by Houthi militants. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Wang Yi invites Canadian foreign minister to Beijing for Friday meeting. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly will meet China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Friday to discuss bilateral relations and security concerns. This visit, Joly's first to China as foreign minister, is at Wang's invitation. The discussions will cover global and regional security issues in addition to potential collaboration on shared challenges. Sino-Canadian relations have been strained since 2018 following the detention of a Chinese executive in Canada and the subsequent arrest of two Canadians in China, though all have been released. Allegations of Chinese interference in Canada continue to affect relations. Joly's visit follows a NATO declaration criticizing Beijing for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine and posing challenges to Euro-Atlantic security. Joly had been in the region already, having met South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul on Thursday. Reuters

China’s third plenum closes with backing for leader Xi’s high-tech vision for economy. The Chinese Communist Party on Thursday winded down its third plenum, a four-day, high-level meeting aimed at planning out the nation’s long term economic and social goals and policies. Its result was the approval of policies to enhance technological power and national security. The meeting emphasized the importance of "Chinese-style modernization" and set goals to be achieved by 2029, which will mark the 80th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. The party stressed the need to balance development and security. Leader Xi Jinping's recurrent call for "high-quality development" was reinforced, focusing on investing in technology and upgrading company capabilities amid Western tech restrictions. Economic concerns such as the real estate slump, weak consumer confidence, and escalating debt were acknowledged. Despite extending Communist Party controls, Chinese leaders reiterated their commitment to openness and foreign investment while preventing "ideological risks." The meeting also included disciplinary actions against former senior officials. Associated Press 

Taiwan’s foreign minister says island must be self-reliant for defense. Taiwan must depend on its own defense capabilities and is likely to continue increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military in response to Chinese aggression, said Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung on Friday. This statement comes after U.S. former President Donald Trump criticized Taipei for not paying Washington for its defense. Lin noted that the island's defense spending has doubled over the past eight years to 2.5% of GDP. It is also extending conscription, and focusing on defense modernization, including developing its own submarines. The U.S. has encouraged Taipei to adopt a "porcupine" strategy, focusing on inexpensive, mobile, and survivable weapons to withstand an initial assault from China. Taiwan's government has prioritized this strategy since the Democratic Progressive Party took office in 2016. Reuters

South Korea blasts loudspeaker broadcasts towards North Korea in response to trash balloons. The South Korean military announced on Friday that it carried out overnight loudspeaker broadcasts directed at North Korea in response to Pyongyang's recent launch of trash balloons into the South. These balloons, many containing feces, rubbish, and parasites, have caused property damage in civilian neighborhoods since May, prompting Seoul to resume the loudspeaker broadcasts after repeated warnings. The broadcasts included propaganda, world news, and K-pop music, and are seen as a form of psychological warfare. North Korea has reacted furiously to the leaflet campaigns and loudspeaker broadcasts from the South. Reuters

U.S. establishes embassy in Vanuatu, amid rivalry with China for influence. The U.S. on Thursday opened an embassy in Vanuatu, marking its latest effort to strengthen diplomatic ties and counter China's powerful influence in the Asia Pacific region. This move follows the opening of U.S. embassies in the Solomon Islands and Tonga, with plans to establish another in Kiribati pending parliamentary approval. Washington aims to increase its diplomatic presence to address what it perceives as an expanding threat from Beijing, its strategic rival. Earlier this year, the U.S. warned Pacific Island nations against accepting aid from Chinese security forces, highlighting concerns over Chinese police activities in Kiribati and the Solomon Islands. Reuters Barron's

Bangladesh protests escalating, many killed as TV news goes off air, Internet disrupted. Massive protests across Bangladesh have intensified, turning deadly and brutal as students, pro-government supporters, and armed police clash over the government's civil service job quota system, which opponents claim is discriminatory. The unrest has resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries, with riot police using tear gas and rubber bullets against protesters. According to AFP, the death toll in Thursday's tumult had risen to 32. Local media reports suggested that students set fire to the headquarters of state broadcaster Bangladesh Television (BTV), resulting in the disruption of news on Friday. Internet and mobile services were severed, and schools and universities were shuttered. The situation has sparked global concern, with international protests and calls from the U.S. and U.N. for restraint, as well as investigations into the violence. The unrest highlights broader dissatisfaction with the government, which is accused of moving toward authoritarianism and has faced previous accusations of election misconduct and human rights abuses. Some analysts believe that the South Asian nation’s rising inflation, high unemployment, and diminishing foreign reserves have further fueled the turmoil. Reuters CNN Reuters Associated Press

AFRICA

Rwandan President Paul Kagame re-elected with 99.18% of vote. Rwanda has re-elected President Paul Kagame, with 99.18% of the vote, according to the National Electoral Commission on Thursday. The voter turnout was 98.20% of the nine million registered voters. His opponents, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and Independent Philippe Mpayimana, conceded defeat. Rights groups criticized the election for the suppression of journalists, opposition, and civil society, which the government has denied. Kagame, who previously received over 93% of the vote in the last three elections, has been lauded for working to ending the 1994 genocide and fostering investment and aid in Rwanda. However, his reputation is tainted by accusations of domestic abuses, as well as backing rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, claims which he rejects. The electoral commission disqualified eight other candidates, including prominent critics of Kagame, for various reasons such as incomplete registration documents. Final results are expected by July 27. Reuters

UN food supplies into Sudan's Darfur stranded. A crucial supply route into Sudan's region of Darfur, which is at risk of famine, has been severed by heavy rains, stranding thousands of tons of aid at the Chad border, according to a World Food Programme (WFP) official. The WFP is negotiating with Sudan's army-aligned government to open an alternative route through Adre. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have reached understandings with the U.N. on opening alternative routes, but not with the army.  The WFP is seeking to gain clearances for a convoy via a challenging, over 1000-km route from Port Sudan to Darfur, crossing multiple battle lines. An official from the U.N. Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan reported that Darfur refugees in Chad are starving and have resorted to eating grass. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Global cyber outage grounds flights and disrupts businesses. A global tech outage disrupted operations across multiple industries on Friday, grounding flights, affecting banking, healthcare, and media services. Major U.S. airlines, including American, Delta, and United, faced delays, while banks in Australia, India, and Germany reported service disruptions. In Britain, booking systems for doctors were offline, Sky News went off air, and Manchester United postponed ticket releases. The outage was linked to a software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike affecting Microsoft Windows systems. Airports in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Europe experienced delays, with some manually checking in passengers. The disruption, described as potentially the biggest ever, highlights the vulnerability of global systems to IT failures. Reuters New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal Associated Press

U.S. Navy missile intercepts target with Army’s new missile defense radar during Indo-Pacific test. Defense contractor Raytheon on Thursday that a recent test during Valiant Shield 24 in the Indo-Pacific demonstrated the successful integration of a U.S. Navy Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) with the U.S. Army’s new missile defense radar and command and control system. The Army’s Lower-Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) simulator tracked threats and provided data to the Northrop Grumman-developed Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), which then guided the SM-6 to intercept a target successfully. This test reflects the Pentagon's goal for seamless inter-service operation in combat and proves the compatibility of Navy missiles with the Army's air and missile defense architecture. Raytheon stressed that this integration enhances the ability to counter diverse and complex threats, allowing for long-range defense. The Army is also incorporating the SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles into its Mid-Range Capability (MRC) weapon system, which fits between its Precision Strike Munition and ground-launched hypersonic missiles. Defense News

DARPA, UT Austin partner to establish microelectronics manufacturing center. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the University of Texas at Austin on Thursday revealed a $1.4 billion, five-year partnership to create the first U.S. hub for sophisticated microelectronics manufacturing. This initiative is part of DARPA’s Next-Generation Microelectronics Manufacturing (NGMM) program, aiming to establish a domestic center for prototyping advanced fabrication techniques to bolster the U.S. semiconductor industry. DARPA will contribute $840 million, while the state of Texas is investing $522 million into UT Austin’s Texas Institute for Electronics, which will house the new center, expected to be operational by 2029. The consortium will include a wide range of partners from defense, industry, academia, and other stakeholders to bolster national and economic security. The facility will center around 3D heterogeneously integrated microsystems (3DHI), an advanced microelectronics fabrication technique. The goal is to improve chip performance by disaggregating functions like memory and processing. UT Austin’s microelectronics consortium includes 32 defense and commercial electronics companies and 18 academic institutions. The U.S. currently produces around 12% of the global microchip supply, down from 37% three decades ago, with Taiwan and China dominating the market. DARPA's ongoing efforts to strengthen the U.S. microelectronics base include the Electronics Resurgence Initiative, which has committed nearly $5 billion to address technological barriers. Defense News  Statesman UTexas

Australia and New Zealand cyber outage hits government, media and telcos. A major cyber outage affected media, retailers, banks, airlines, and telecoms across Australia and New Zealand on Friday. The disruption, linked to issues with cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike and Microsoft, affected companies including Commonwealth Bank, Qantas, and Sydney Airport. Victorian police and New Zealand's parliament were also affected. The outage caused delays but did not stem from a cyber-attack, according to Australia’s National Cyber Security Coordinator. The issue, reportedly related to a technical problem with third-party software, disrupted services but emergency operations remained functional. Reuters

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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