Report for Friday, July 12, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY’S REPORT

Friday, July 12

Many Gaza city residents ignore Israel’s mass evacuation order.

Zelensky says to win the war, US needs to lift limits on striking targets inside Russia. 

Biden fails to quiet calls to step aside in 2024 race

U.S. intelligence foils Russian assassination plot on leader of Germany’s Rheinmetall.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

DEEP DIVE: Behind the Scenes, Plans to “Trump-Proof” NATO. The Cipher Brief

A Summer Guide to Staying Cool with Spy Comedies.The Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel to send negotiators to Cairo for truce talks. Israeli officials announced Thursday that negotiators will go to Cairo for talks about a proposed cease-fire deal in Gaza. The move was taken as a hopeful sign, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t budge from his position that the military campaign must continue until Israel eliminates Hamas. Hamas issued a statement accusing the Israeli government of “stalling to buy time to foil this round of negotiations, as it has done in previous rounds." Voice of America Reuters Reuters 

G7 denounces Israel's plan to expand settlements in West Bank. The foreign ministers of the G7 nations joined the United Nations and the European Union to condemn Israeli Finance Minister Israel Smotrich’s move to legalize five Jewish outposts in the West Bank. The officials rejected Israel’s declaration that over 1,270 hectares of land in the West Bank are “state lands,” its expansion of existing settlements in the occupied West Bank by 5,295 new housing units, and its establishment of three new settlements. They called Israel’s actions “inconsistent with international law and counterproductive to the cause of peace.” Reuters

Israeli military extends evacuation order to all of Gaza City. The Israeli military ordered civilians to evacuate the whole of Gaza City on Wednesday.  The city has been under constant bombardment for several days. On Thursday, Israeli airstrikes killed at least six people in Gaza City and 19 in the rest of the Gaza Strip, Reuters reported, quoting Palestinian authorities. The civil emergency service said the bodies of at least 30 Palestinians killed in the previous three days were tossed on unreachable roads in Gaza City. The Israelis suspended inspections along two roads in Gaza City to allow civilians to reach humanitarian zones faster. They said the city “will remain a dangerous combat zone.” No mass exodus followed Wednesday’s order. Many Palestinians say there is no point rushing to the south, where most of the population is crowded in squalor. Many civilians who took refuge in so-called humanitarian zones were still killed. The military said it wrapped up its operation launched in the Gaza City neighborhood of Shijaiyah, where it killed dozens of militants and destroyed eight underground tunnels.  Associated Press CNN  Wall Street Journal Reuters 

Israel’s military admits to multiple failures exploited by Hamas on October 7.  Israel​’s military recounted in agonizing detail how it failed to defend Kibbutz Be’eri ​against Hamas militants on Oct. 7, in the first published findings of a sweeping military investigation into the nation’s worst intelligence failure and terrorist attack. The probe focused on the events in Kibbutz Be’eri, a small community on the Gaza border that was the site of one of the worst massacres that day.  The kibbutz, with 1,200 residents, was infiltrated by 340 militants. Thirty-one members of the Israeli forces were killed during the battle at the kibbutz. Israeli troops arrived before 1:30 p.m. but camped outside the gate of the kibbutz after being quickly repelled. Meanwhile, armed residents of the community and their rapid response force tried to defend the kibbutz in what the investigators called “acts of heroism.” Brig. Gen. Barak Hiram—commander of the Israeli military’s 99th Division who led the battle to retake the kibbutz—ordered tanks to shell a home where 14 hostages were being held captive. Only one of those hostages survived. The investigation concluded that Israel's military was unprepared for a massive infiltration of militants, failed to field adequate forces, did not grasp the reality of the situation until noon,  hours after the attack began, did not properly alert Be'eri's residents and failed to coordinate its response. Wall Street Journal  Reuters Associated Press 

Biden tells Israel it must not occupy Gaza, argues war should end immediately. U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday called for an end to the Israel-Gaza war and stressed that Israel should not occupy Gaza post-war. Biden noted that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire framework, although some details still need to be resolved. This framework includes a ceasefire, the release of hostages, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and the reconstruction of the enclave. Key U.S. officials are currently in the Middle East working on finalizing the deal. Biden also criticized Israel's occasional lack of cooperation and expressed disappointment over some unachieved steps, such as the approaching closure of the U.S. military's humanitarian pier off Gaza. Reuters 

Israeli defense minister says Netanyahu should be investigated for failure on Oct. 7. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday urged the launching of a state inquiry into the failings surrounding the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, stating that the inquiry should investigate all decision-makers, including himself and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Gallant announced this during a graduation ceremony for new military officers, which Netanyahu attended. According to Gallant, the inquiry must be objective and comprehensive, covering the government, military, and security agencies. Netanyahu has previously dismissed calls for such an inquiry, suggesting it should be conducted after the war ends. Times of Israel Reuters Jerusalem Post

Israel vows to enhance security for humanitarian workers in Gaza, says U.S. aid agency chief.  Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, said Israel has made commitments to allow faster and safer movement for aid workers in Gaza and to increase aid flow through Ashdod port. This marks progress in efforts to aid Gaza's civilians, who face severe displacement and famine. Power highlighted the challenges of delivering aid amid ongoing military operations and logistical issues at Israeli-controlled border crossings. She noted that improved coordination between humanitarian groups and the Israeli military has been agreed upon. Power also noted Washington’s commitment of $100 million in new assistance for Palestinians, bringing the total to $774 million since the war began. Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine’s ‘Irreversible’ Path to NATO Is Paved With Uncertainty. NATO's declaration that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” toward membership underscores Western support but faces uncertainties, particularly if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Trump could push for a peace settlement with Russia, complicating Ukraine's accession. Differences within NATO also persist, with some members advocating for Ukraine’s membership only post-war and after anti-corruption measures. The summit in Washington saw commitments to bolster Ukraine’s military, including F-16s and advanced air defense systems. Despite this, NATO stopped short of allowing Ukraine to use certain American-supplied missiles and providing long-term financial support. Wall Street Journal

What NATO Gave Ukraine. Ukraine was not invited to join NATO but gained substantial military aid. The July 9-11 NATO Summit pledged 80 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands, additional MiG-29 fighters from Poland, and various air defense systems, including Patriot batteries. NATO allies committed $43 billion in military aid over the next year and established a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate support. Ukraine is on an "irreversible" path to NATO membership, with enhanced joint training programs and a permanent NATO envoy in Kyiv. Despite the progress, Eastern European officials expressed disappointment over the lack of a formal invitation. Foreign Policy

Zelensky says to win the war, US needs to lift limits on striking military targets inside Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the lifting of U.S. restrictions on using American weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, emphasizing that it's essential for Ukraine to win the war. Despite new military aid and support from NATO allies, Zelenskyy stressed the urgency of receiving assistance faster. President Joe Biden, while announcing new aid, did not indicate any changes to current restrictions, which limit strikes to Russian forces attacking or preparing to attack Ukraine. Biden, speaking at a press conference Thursday, said the U.S. would continue to impose some limitations. "If he had the ability to strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, would that make sense? It wouldn't," Biden said.  The American president said he and U.S. military and intelligence officials were making decisions on a “day-to-day basis on how far they should go in. That's a logical thing to do."  Associated Press Reuters Reuters

UN demands Russia withdraw from Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The United Nations General Assembly demanded Russia withdraw its military and unauthorized personnel from Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest. The 193-member assembly passed the resolution with 99 votes in favor, nine against, and 60 abstentions. The plant, captured by Russia in 2022, requires external power to prevent a nuclear meltdown. Ukraine's U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya urged support to prevent future nuclear disasters. The resolution also calls for an end to Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure. Russia's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy criticized the resolution, promoting a narrative of Ukrainian aggression, which Ukraine denies. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Attacking hospitals is part of Putin’s plan. Russia's deliberate targeting of hospitals, including Monday’s missile strike on Kyiv's Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, aims to terrorize civilians and pressure governments to capitulate. This tactic, historically used in wars that the Kremlin has waged in Ukraine, Syria, and Chechnya, seeks to disperse Ukrainian defense resources and exploit their need for more air defense systems. Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure aim to undermine resistance by causing widespread fear and disruption. While such actions violate international humanitarian law and constitute war crimes, the Kremlin often deflects blame onto Ukrainian forces, as seen in the recent Kyiv attack, despite clear evidence of Russian culpability. So far, Russia has damaged more than 1,600 medical centers and destroyed more than 200 hospitals in Ukraine, the Health Ministry of Ukraine reported in June. Russian forces also target ambulances and other medical evacuation vehicles in frontline regions. Politico

Ukraine and Romania sign security agreement. Ukraine and Romania signed a 10-year security agreement focusing on the security of the Black Sea region. This is Ukraine's 23rd long-term bilateral agreement with partners, including the UK, Germany, France, and the US. The deal includes Romania's assistance in mine clearance in the Black Sea and training Ukrainian pilots for F-16 jets. Reuters 

China tells NATO not to create chaos in Asia and rejects label of ‘enabler’ of Russia’s Ukraine war. China accused NATO on Thursday of creating security threats and chaos, urging the alliance not to extend its influence to Asia. This follows NATO labeling China a "decisive enabler" of Russia’s war against Ukraine, citing China's strong trade and defense ties with Russia. China rejects this accusation, emphasizing its legitimate trade with Russia and criticizing NATO’s expansion and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. China has not condemned Russia's actions in Ukraine and instead aligns with Russia against Western influence. Associated Press 

Ukraine seizes cargo ship, detains captain for exporting 'looted' grain. Ukraine seized a foreign cargo ship, the Cameroon-flagged USKO MFU, on the Danube River and detained its Azeri captain for allegedly aiding Russia in exporting looted Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine’s prosecutor general said Thursday. Ukraine has accused Russia of trading stolen grain since the 2022 full-scale invasion. The ship was detained at Reni, a Ukrainian port. Ukrainian authorities stated the vessel had multiple times docked at Crimea’s Sevastopol port. The ship's Turkey-based manager denied any involvement in transporting grain from Russian-occupied areas, claiming the current cargo was from Moldova. “Under international maritime law, cargo ships that go in and out of Crimea, where there are no legitimate Ukrainian authorities, engage in smuggling,” said Kateryna Yaresko, a journalist monitoring shipping movements to and from occupied Ukraine. “They [the crew of USKO MFU] knew what they were doing. They turned their transponder off on May 22 and turned it on [again] only on June 6. During that time, they unloaded a cargo from Turkey in Sevastopol and left.” Reuters Politico

Norway to give Ukraine $93 million to boost air defenses, prime minister says. Norway will provide $93 million to boost Ukraine's air defenses, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere announced at the NATO Summit. This follows Norway's pledge to give Ukraine six F-16 fighter jets. The funds will support Germany's Immediate Action for Air Defence initiative. Norway also plans to donate a complete IRIS-T air defense battery to Ukraine in the autumn. Reuters

Russian diplomat says Moscow won't attend a second Ukraine peace summit. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin says Russia will not participate in a follow-up Ukraine peace summit. Russia was excluded from the initial summit, which Moscow deemed a waste of time. Ukraine plans another summit, potentially inviting Russia. Russia's conditions for ending the war remain unacceptable to Ukraine. Reuters

NATO agrees to coordinate some Ukraine security support. How that will work. NATO has initiated a program to provide military aid and training to Ukraine, enhancing its preparation for potential NATO membership. This new effort supplements the existing Ukraine Defense Contact Group, addressing vulnerabilities exposed by political delays in the U.S. and Europe. Based at a U.S. Army base in Germany, NATO's plan involves 700 staff members and focuses on training, equipment coordination, and maintenance. NATO pledges €40 billion in support, aiming to place aid for Ukraine on a stable, long-term basis, despite concerns about potential U.S. policy shifts under future administrations. Associated Press 

​​Germany buys more Patriots as it supplements Ukraine’s air defense. Germany has signed a second $1.2 billion contract with Raytheon to supply Patriot air and missile defense system components, supplementing Ukraine’s defenses against Russia. The deal follows a similar contract in March, each providing four Patriot fire units. Germany, alongside the U.S. and Romania, is donating additional Patriot batteries to Ukraine. The Patriot system, used by 19 countries, is critical in strengthening NATO’s defense posture. Germany is also part of a coalition ordering 1,000 Patriot missiles worth $55 billion. Defense News

Slovakia’s F-16 top-up plans reopen political battles over Ukraine aid. Slovakia plans to buy four more F-16 fighter jets, adding to the 14 already ordered, to replace the scrapped purchase of 12 Bell AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters. Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák initiated this move to support the NATO Integrated Air Defense System amid criticism of the Viper deal as "disadvantageous." Former Defense Minister Jaroslav Naď views the F-16 purchase as a political maneuver. Prime Minister Robert Fico, a pro-Moscow leader, opposes military aid to Ukraine, contrasting with the previous government's support, including donating MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Defense News

Russian pilot leaked personnel data on Russian aviation division to Ukraine, source says. A Russian pilot leaked confidential information to Ukraine's military intelligence, identifying 30 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division commanders. The pilot, shocked by Monday’s Russian missile attack on Kyiv's Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, provided personal data and photos via Ukraine's Diia chatbot on Telegram. The division, stationed at Engels airfield, regularly strikes Ukraine using Kh-101 cruise missiles. Monday’s mass missile attacks in Kyiv killed 33, injured 121, and caused significant damage to the hospital. Kyiv Independent

Russia wants quick solution to issue of Indians caught up in Ukraine war, top diplomat says. Russia is committed to quickly resolving the issue of Indians duped into joining its army to fight in Ukraine, according to a top diplomat. This follows discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin. Most Indians were recruited under false pretenses, and both nations are working to address this. India reported 30-40 Indians involved, with at least four deaths, and has arrested four traffickers. Reuters

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Thursday, July 11, 2024. Russian authorities allegedly attempted to assassinate European defense industry leaders to disrupt Western aid to Ukraine and destabilize NATO members. Finnish authorities reported increased GPS malfunctions originating from Russia, disrupting aviation and maritime navigation. Ukraine plans to hold a second Global Peace Summit by the end of 2024. European Union leadership is considering restricting Hungary's power as EU Council president following Prime Minister Viktor Orban's meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The Russian government continues efforts to suppress critical voices and tighten control over its information space. Russian regions are using monetary incentives for crypto-mobilization recruitment efforts.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City, while Russian troops advanced south of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

Biden fails to quiet calls to step aside in 2024 race. President Joe Biden faced increased calls from Democrats to step aside in the 2024 election after a news conference where he occasionally stumbled over his words. Despite delivering detailed global issue assessments, Biden’s performance did not quell concerns about his age and low approval ratings. At least 17 congressional Democrats have urged him to withdraw, fearing electoral losses to Trump. Biden, however, insists he will not step down, emphasizing his commitment to run. Some Democrats remain unconvinced of his viability, while others believe his experience makes him the best candidate to defeat Trump. The race remains close in polls.  Reuters

Obama and Pelosi privately expressed concerns over Biden. Former President Barack Obama and ex-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have voiced concerns privately about Joe Biden's ability to win the 2024 election against Donald Trump. Their uncertainty has led Democrats to urge them to guide the party through its current turmoil. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries lack the influence to address the crisis. Despite Pelosi's close relationship with Biden, she hasn’t fully endorsed his continued candidacy. Obama's reluctance to take a public stance has frustrated some Democrats, though he remains a private advisor to Biden. Pelosi’s recent statements on MSNBC have increased calls within the party for Biden to step aside. Obama, meanwhile, maintains a cautious approach to avoid inflaming tensions. As Democrats seek unity, the influence of both Pelosi and Obama looms large over Biden's decision-making and the party's future direction. CNN

5 key takeaways from Biden’s press conference on Thursday. With pressure mounting on U.S. President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race, his nearly hour-long press conference at the close of the July 9-11 NATO Summit was closely scrutinized. Here are five key takeaways:

Determination to Stay in the Race. Biden firmly declared his intention to remain in the 2024 presidential race despite concerns about his age and fitness. He dismissed unfavorable polls against Trump and stated, “I think I’m the best qualified person to do the job.” Biden acknowledged the rigorous demands of his schedule but emphasized the need to pace himself better.

Rough Start but Steadfast Response. Biden’s news conference began with a stumble, notably when he mistakenly referred to "Vice President Trump" while defending Kamala Harris’s qualifications. Yet managed to avoid the prolonged disjointed moments seen during the June 27 debate with Donald Trump. He corrected himself quickly and showed resilience.

Command of Foreign Policy. Biden demonstrated a firm grasp of foreign policy issues, delivering detailed responses on international matters. He emphasized the need to hold China accountable for its actions and reiterated his stance on restricting Ukraine from using American weapons to strike deep into Russia. Biden highlighted the global implications of the U.S. election, noting that world leaders had expressed concerns about a potential Trump presidency and its disastrous effects.

Struggle to Articulate His Candidacy Concisely. While defending his decision to stay in the race, Biden struggled to present a clear and concise message on why he is the best candidate to defeat Trump. His answers often meandered. He acknowledged other Democrats could beat Trump but emphasized his belief in his qualifications and the difficulty of replacing him mid-campaign.

Strong Defense of Kamala Harris. Biden robustly defended Vice President Kamala Harris’s credentials, praising her efforts on abortion rights and her capability in handling various issues. He stated that polling in favor of Harris over himself wouldn’t influence his decision to step down unless it unequivocally showed no chance of his victory. Biden’s support for Harris remained clear, highlighting her qualifications and importance to his administration. New York Times CNN

Hungary's Orban, a NATO outlier on Ukraine, talks 'peace mission' with Trump. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday to discuss "possibilities of peace" as part of Orban's self-styled "peace mission" for Ukraine. Orban's recent visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing have angered NATO allies, especially his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban did not inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of his mission, raising concerns from both Zelensky and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The Hungarian leader has openly endorsed Trump’s candidacy in this year’s presidential election and expressed hopes that the Republican will be able to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Reuters Associated Press 

Canada reveals target date for NATO defense spending goal. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday that the nation will increase its defense spending to meet the NATO target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2032 amid mounting pressure from the U.S. This is the first time Canada has set a definite timeline for achieving this goal. Currently, Ottawa spends about 1.4% of its GDP on defense, with plans to raise it to 1.76% by 2030. The announcement follows criticism from U.S. officials and NATO allies for Canada's lower defense spending. Trudeau stressed that the country has actively participated in NATO initiatives and focused on effective resource utilization rather than merely meeting nominal targets. The Conservative Party condemned the development, accusing Trudeau of making a non-serious commitment and attempting to avoid embarrassment at the NATO summit. Reuters Kyiv Independent

US, Canada, and Finland coordinate to build ice-breaking vessels amid China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic. The U.S., Canada, and Finland have agreed to collaborate on expanding their icebreaker fleets to strengthen Arctic defenses in response to increased Russian and Chinese activity in the polar regions. This pact, announced at the NATO summit on Thursday, includes improved information sharing on icebreaker production, cross-training in shipyards, and the promotion of the purchase of icebreakers from each other's shipyards to allies. Daleep Singh, a White House deputy national security adviser, asserted the commitment of the U.S. and its allies to maintain a strong presence in the Arctic. Currently, the U.S. has only two icebreakers, while Finland has 12, Canada has nine, and Russia has 36. The U.S. Coast Guard has indicated a need for eight to nine new icebreakers, with construction of a new vessel beginning this year. Reuters Associated Press

U.S. imposes sanctions on expanding Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The White House on Thursday announced new sanctions against the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which has been involved in kidnappings, extortion, and violent crimes across Latin America and the U.S. for years. The Biden administration also offered a $12 million reward for the arrest of three of its leaders. The gang joins MS-13 and Italy’s Camorra on the list of transnational criminal organizations banned from doing business on U.S. soil. The Treasury Department highlighted the gang’s exploitation of vulnerable populations, particularly migrant women and girls, for sex trafficking. Tren de Aragua, now a federation of different groups, originated in a prison in Aragua, Venezuela, over a decade ago. It has been accused of numerous violent crimes in countries with large Venezuelan migrant populations, such as Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, and has collaborated with Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital, another sanctioned criminal organization. Reports suggest the group’s presence in American cities like Chicago and New York. The Venezuelan government claims to have dismantled the gang last year. Reuters Associated Press

EUROPE

U.S. intelligence foils Russian assassination plot. CNN reported Thursday that U.S. intelligence disrupted a Russian government plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, a mammoth German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine. Rheinmetall is the largest German manufacturer of 155mm artillery shells crucial to Ukraine. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine, infuriating Russia. CNN Financial Times.

Beijing Sends Message To NATO With Chinese-Belarusian Military Drills On Alliance's Eastern Flank. China and Belarus undertook joint military exercises near the Polish border as NATO leaders met in Washington to support Ukraine and criticize Beijing's alignment with Russia. The 11-day drills, named Eagle Assault 2024, underscore the growing defense ties between China and Belarus, sending a clear message to NATO. These exercises coincide with Belarus's recent entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia. NATO's concerns include the potential emboldening of China if Ukraine is defeated, with implications for global security, particularly in the South China Sea and other regions. RFE/RL

Europe prepares for a mighty trade war. Europe is preparing for a trade war by imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, aiming to counter perceived unfair advantages from Chinese state subsidies. The European Union faces internal opposition from German carmakers and potential retaliation from China, which is investigating EU trade practices. The EU stresses adherence to World Trade Organization rules but is ready to use new trade measures, such as the international procurement instrument. Europe's strategy contrasts with the more aggressive American approach, reflecting its commitment to the rules-based order despite challenges from state-capitalist economies like China. Economist

ANALYSIS–How Orban Became Putin’s Pawn. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has become closely aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin, undermining Western efforts to support Ukraine. Despite Hungary's membership in NATO and the EU, Orban's actions reflect a pro-Russian stance, evidenced by his recent visit to Moscow and support for Kremlin narratives. This alliance grants Hungary preferential energy deals but isolates it politically and economically from the West. “Hungary is the extension of Russian foreign policy. At the moment, Orban is Putin’s most useful idiot,” said Peter Kreko, a nonresident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. It’s not that Orban loves Putin. It’s that he hates the West. After World War I, the Treaty of Trianon eviscerated Hungary’s territory and culled its population by giving away much of its land and removing many of its people. His influence extends beyond Hungary, impacting far-right movements in Europe and aligning with figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump. Foreign Policy

The Habsburg empire strikes back. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has formed a hard-right political group, Patriots for Europe, in the European Parliament, reminiscent of the Habsburg Empire. Announced in Vienna on June 30, the group includes right-wing populists from Austria, the Czech Republic, and France's National Rally, aiming to become the largest European right-wing faction. Despite historical tensions, populist leaders from Slovakia and other nations are joining forces under Orbán’s leadership, driven by shared frustrations with Brussels, a favorable view of Vladimir Putin, and strong anti-migration stances. This coalition provides Orban with a significant pan-European political platform. Politico

NATO’s bad boys: Turkey and Hungary play their own game. Turkey and Hungary, while solid NATO members, are hedging their bets with foreign policies that often clash with NATO priorities. Both nations maintain close ties with Russia and are cautious about fully supporting Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aim to ensure NATO remains a defensive alliance and prepare for a potential Trump presidency. At the recent NATO summit, Orban promoted a peace mission favoring Russia, while Turkey demanded hosting rights for the 2026 NATO summit and influenced the summit declaration. Despite their divergences, NATO remains a core priority for both countries. Politico

2 percent on defense? That is so last year. At the NATO Summit, discussions revolved around defense spending, with many leaders suggesting an increase beyond the current 2 percent of gross domestic product target set in 2014. The target is controversial as many member nations, especially those near Russia, argue it should be higher, with Poland advocating for 3 percent and others suggesting 2.5 percent. The possibility of Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president intensified these discussions, as his previous criticisms of NATO spending still resonate. While Canada pledged to reach 2 percent by 2032, defense contractors’ supply issues and EU budget negotiations complicate consensus on raising the target. Politico

Russia Vows ‘Military Response’ to U.S. Missile Deployments in Germany. Russia announced it will develop military countermeasures in response to the U.S. and Germany's plan to deploy longer-range American missiles in Germany starting in 2026. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov criticized the move as destructive to regional stability. The U.S. and Germany stated these deployments are defensive measures aimed at deterring Russia, especially in light of Russia's modernization of its nuclear arsenal. The plan includes episodic deployments of SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and developmental hypersonic weapons, with the possibility of permanent stationing in the future. New York Times Washington Post 

Romania, Bulgaria, Greece sign pact to boost military mobility.  Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece have agreed to enable the swift cross-border movement of troops and weapons to NATO’s eastern flank, Romania's defense ministry said on Thursday. Also, on Thursday, the Romanian and Bulgarian defense ministers signed a memorandum to create a regional command center to oversee the alliance’s special operations forces in the Black Sea region. Reuters

Slovak PM Fico's party will likely stay out of EU parliament alliances. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Thursday his ruling party SMER-SSD would stay out of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Union parliament and would probably avoid other alliances as well.  The S&D suspended SMER and Slovakia's junior ruling party HLAS last October after the parties struck a deal with a far-right party to form a government. Reuters 

France, Germany, Italy, Poland launch joint project to develop long-range cruise missiles. Meeting on the margins of the NATO summit in Washington, the defense ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Poland agreed to work together to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range beyond 500 kilometers. They said they aimed to fill a gap in European arsenals exposed by Russia's war in Ukraine. Reuters 

Hungary warns that NATO risks becoming an 'anti-China' bloc. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Thursday that Hungary does not want to see NATO become an "anti-China" bloc. A draft summit communique by other NATO members described China as a decisive enabler of Russia's war effort in Ukraine. It said Beijing poses systemic challenges to Europe and security. China complained that the communique was biased and "sowing discord." Szijjarto also said Ukraine's admission to NATO would undermine the group’s unity. Reuters 

NATO declares US ballistic missile defense base in Poland mission-ready. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg announced Wednesday that a new U.S. air defense base in northern Poland, designed to detect and intercept ballistic missile attacks as part of a broader NATO missile shield, is ready to operate. Stoltenberg said the base was an important step for NATO security in the face of the threat of ballistic missiles. Reuters 

Russia's FSB says it foiled terror attack on church in North Caucasus. Russia's Federal Security Service said on Thursday that it had foiled an attempted terrorist attack on an Orthodox Christian church in the south of the country, TASS reported. TASS said the FSB accused a citizen of an unnamed Central Asian nation of an attack in Maykop, the capital of the Adygea region in the North Caucasus. The FSB said the suspect was a member of an unnamed, banned international terrorist organization. Investigators reportedly seized a flag and other materials, a knife, and components for an incendiary device. Reuters

Finland to vote on turning back migrants crossing from Russia. Finland's parliament will vote on a bill granting border guards authority to turn back asylum seekers crossing from Russia amid claims that Russia has been encouraging these migrations. The bill, supported by the ruling coalition and many opposition lawmakers, is deemed necessary by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's government to prevent future arrivals. Finland closed its border with Russia last year, with no new arrivals since March. Reuters

Switzerland squares neutrality with its European air defense push. Switzerland is formalizing its membership in the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), aiming to align this move with its neutrality. ESSI, launched after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, focuses on procurement, training, and logistics for air defense. Switzerland's participation is consistent with its security interests and non-alignment tradition, as it lacks defense against ballistic missiles. The ESSI now includes 21 states. Defense News 

MIDDLE EAST

Ambrey says merchant vessel detected two blasts west of Yemen's Mocha. The British security firm Ambrey reported Friday that a merchant vessel detected two explosions approximately 21 nautical miles west of Yemen's Mocha. One blast occurred in the water, and the other detonated in the air within 0.5 nautical miles of the vessel. At the time, the ship had deactivated its automatic identification system. Ambrey is investigating the vessel's potential links to Houthi targets. The Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen has been carrying out drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November. Reuters

Ship tracking data indicates Iran-seized oil tanker moving to international waters. The oil tanker Advantage Sweet, controlled by Iran for over a year, has reached international waters after being seized in April 2023 while carrying $50 million worth of oil for Chevron Corp. The Marshall Islands-flagged tanker traveled through the Strait of Hormuz and headed towards Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, where other ships previously detained by Iran have also docked. Iran did not acknowledge the ship's departure, which coincided with an Iranian court ordering the U.S. to pay over $6.7 billion in compensation related to a Swedish company's halted supply of medical dressings due to U.S. sanctions. Initially, Iran claimed the tanker was seized for hitting another vessel but later linked it to the court case. Chevron has written off the cargo on the Advantage Sweet as a loss, deeming the seizure unjustified. Reuters Associated Press

Iranian foreign minister says nation conducting indirect talks with U.S. through Oman.  Tehran continues indirect nuclear negotiations with the U.S. via Oman, according to Iranian acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani. These confidential talks aim to prepare for talks once Iran's newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, takes office. Bagheri Kani said that despite the White House's unwillingness to resume nuclear talks, efforts are being made to set the stage for future negotiations. Pezeshkian, a moderate, has said he seeks a pragmatic foreign policy to reduce tensions with the six powers involved in the stalled 2015 nuclear pact talks, though ultimate decisions on foreign policy rest with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Reuters

DIA concludes Houthis fired Iranian missile at Norwegian-flagged ship. Yemen’s Houthi rebels likely fired an Iranian-made anti-ship cruise missile at a Norwegian-flagged tanker in the Red Sea in December, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported Wednesday. The forensic analysis linked the attack on the Strinda to Tehran. The findings dovetail with those of a Norway-based insurers group examining debris found on the Strinda. Associated Press

Syria and Turkey may restore ties. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are signaling a potential restoration of diplomatic ties, which have been severed since the 2011 start of the Syrian civil war. Erdogan is pushing for a meeting with Assad, possibly mediated by Iraq, amid shifting regional dynamics, including the Israeli war in Gaza. Turkey seeks to manage the refugee situation and curb Kurdish autonomy, while Syria aims to end its political isolation. Although significant shifts are unlikely, increased dialogue may result in some security agreements and confidence-building measures. Associated Press

ASIA AND OCEANIA

Japan releases annual security assessment, cautions against rising tension, regional threats. Japan has warned that China's increasing military exercises could escalate tensions with Taiwan and may be preparing Beijing's forces for a potential invasion of the island. The Japanese government asserts that the possibility of a severe situation similar to Russia’s war on Ukraine cannot be discounted for Asia. This warning is part of Tokyo's annual security assessment, addressing dangers from North Korea and Russia. Key points from Japan's Defense White Paper, unveiled Friday, also include: regional security concerns, China’s nuclear arsenal expansion, North Korea’s threats and nuclear strikes development, and a deepening of military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. Japan's assessment comes amid broader concerns expressed by NATO about China's role in supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and posing systemic challenges to European security, which has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing. Reuters Japan Times

Taiwan is watching Chinese military operations in the Pacific. Taiwan was closely following Chinese military activity on Thursday, referring to it as a rising threat, amid operations of Chinese warplanes near Taiwan. Beijing is conducting drills with its Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific, which coincides with a NATO summit in the U.S. President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed efforts to bolster Taiwan's defenses against increasing Chinese threats, describing the Asian giant's "gray zone" tactics to pressure Taiwan. China’s defense ministry has yet to comment on the Shandong's activities. Reuters

The Philippines spurns ‘use of force’ to undercut regional interests but doesn’t seek conflict.  Philippine officials on Friday said Manila rejects the “use of force” to undermine its interests in the South China Sea but does not seek conflict. National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said that efforts are being made to de-escalate tensions with China, particularly around the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines has stationed a beached warship since 1999 to assert its claims. Ano said that the Philippines upholds the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling rejecting China's expansive claims in the South China Sea. Reuters

China warns NATO to back off. China reacted angrily after NATO condemned Chinese support of Russia's war on Ukraine,  expressed concern over China’s growing nuclear arsenal, and accused Beijing of acting irresponsibly in cyberspace and outer space. China warned the U.S. and its allies not to “provoke confrontation.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters  Thursday that NATO’s statement was “full of prejudice, smears and provocations.” Wall Street Journal Reuters 

U.S., South Korea sign joint nuclear guideline strategy amid North Korea-Russia ties.  The U.S. and South Korea have signed joint nuclear deterrence guidelines in response to growing nuclear threats from North Korea and its recent defense pact with Russia. The agreement was made during a meeting between President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at the NATO summit in Washington. The guidelines build on the Nuclear Consultative Group established last year to enhance information-sharing on nuclear and strategic operations, with Washington maintaining control of its nuclear weapons. The newly signed "U.S.-ROK Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula" aim to integrate American nuclear assets with South Korean conventional weapons to counter North Korean threats better. This move reinforces the U.S. commitment to defend Seoul using all its capabilities, including nuclear weapons, promising a swift and decisive response to any nuclear attack by Pyongyang. The two nations will also conduct joint military exercises to implement these guidelines. Reuters Associated Press

Australia charges Russian-born wife, husband with spying under sweeping espionage laws.  An Australian army private, Kira Korolev, and her husband, Igor Korolev, were denied bail on Friday after being charged with preparing for an espionage offense. The couple, Russian-born Australian citizens, allegedly attempted to access and provide Australian Defense Force information to Russian authorities. Police arrested them at their Brisbane home on Thursday, accusing the husband of accessing his wife’s work account and sending classified information to her during a secret trip to Russia last year. This case marks the first charges under Australia's 2018 espionage laws. Australian Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw stated no significant compromise was identified and emphasized collaboration with the Five Eyes intelligence partners to prevent espionage. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed confidence in Australia's security agencies. The Korolevs face a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison if convicted. If evidence shows the information was shared with Moscow, charges could be upgraded, leading to harsher penalties. Reuters Associated Press

Pakistan mulls expelling hundreds of thousands more Afghan nationals in crackdown. In the latest move in a series of actions against undocumented migrants, Pakistan will consider a scheme to expel hundreds of thousands of Afghan nationals who have been living in the country for years. This plan would mark the second phase of the “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” and involve individuals who were issued Afghan citizen cards to legalize their stay temporarily. The government has yet to decide on the implementation date. Since the start of deportations, approximately 600,000 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan. Although the pace of deportations has recently slowed, the government insists the crackdown continues. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, emphasized that legal Afghan refugees should not be concerned, as their stay has been extended. Despite criticism from the United Nations and human rights groups, Pakistan maintains that the deportations are conducted humanely. Pakistan hosts about 1.7 million Afghans, many of whom await resettlement in countries like the U.S., Canada, and others. Associated Press CNN

AFRICA

UN-mediated Sudan peace talks begin, though one party fails to appear. Representatives from Sudan's warring factions have arrived in Geneva for United Nations-facilitated talks to protect civilians through potential local ceasefires. The discussions, led by U.N. envoy Ramtane Lamamra, involved separate "proximity talks" with the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. However, one delegation did not attend the initial session, though U.N. officials did not specify which one. Previous talks in Jeddah between the factions failed last year. The U.N. kept these Geneva meetings low-profile to avoid raising expectations and emphasized the importance of finding ways to advance humanitarian measures and protect civilians. Reuters Associated Press

Inmates escape Niger high-security prison holding Islamist militants. The interior ministry of Niger has alerted search units after inmates escaped from the high-security Koutoukale prison, which houses Islamist militants, on Thursday. The ministry did not specify the number of escapees or their escape method. This prison, located 50 kilometers northwest of Niamey, has previously thwarted escape attempts in 2016 and 2019. Its inmates include those involved in Niger's conflict with groups linked to al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Boko Haram insurgents. Authorities have imposed an overnight curfew in Tillaberi, the region where the prison is located. Niger and its neighbors in the Sahel are battling a growing jihadist threat since 2012, which has led to thousands of deaths, over 3 million displaced people, and a severe humanitarian crisis. Reuters

Kenya's President Ruto dismisses all cabinet secretaries. On Thursday, Kenyan President William Ruto said that he was dismissing all cabinet secretaries and the attorney general of Kenya. Reuters CNN 

CYBER AND TECH

Germany announces plan to phase out Chinese components in 5G networks amid security concerns.  Due to security concerns, Germany’s Interior Ministry revealed plans to phase out Chinese components from Huawei and ZTE in its 5G networks. By the end of 2026, Chinese components will be banned from 5G core networks, and by 2029, critical management systems from these companies will be replaced in 5G access networks. This decision aims to protect Germany's critical infrastructure, including health, transport, and energy. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser emphasized the need to reduce security risks and avoid dependencies. The decision was made after negotiations with Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, and Telefonica, which operate Germany's 5G networks. Agreements with these companies are expected to be signed. In response, China urged Germany to evaluate 5G technology providers without political bias. Beijing highlighted that Huawei and other Chinese companies have contributed to Europe's infrastructure, creating jobs and paying taxes, and stressed that there is no evidence that they jeopardize national security. Deutsche Welle

US lawmakers raise worries about China in Microsoft deal with Emirati AI firm. Republican lawmakers have requested an intelligence assessment of Microsoft's $1.5 billion investment in UAE-based AI firm G42 due to concerns about transferring sensitive technology and G42’s ties to China. Representatives Michael McCaul and John Moolenaar asked for a briefing before the deal progresses, highlighting fears of sensitive AI technology being shared with U.S. adversaries. The letter emphasized the need for regulations on AI exports and a review of G42's connections to China. Microsoft and the White House affirmed their commitment to national security, while G42 and the UAE embassy did not comment. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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