Report for Friday, January 31, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Friday, January 31, 2025

Russia closes in on a key Ukrainian city, seeking a gateway for future advances

Three Trump nominees slog through rough confirmation hearings

Finland Says More Subsea Cable Damage Is ‘Very Likely.’

Hamas Turns Hostage Releases into a Humiliating Spectacle for Israel

China builds enormous military command center in Beijing

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Amid Calls for ‘Overhaul,’ Challenges Facing the Intelligence Community.  President Trump has pledged a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. intelligence community (IC), appointing controversial figures like Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Kash Patel as FBI Director. His administration argues that the IC has been overly politicized, focusing too much on diversity and climate change rather than core national security threats. The Senate confirmed John Ratcliffe as CIA Director, who has committed to refocusing intelligence efforts on China, Russia, and Iran while incorporating AI and quantum computing. Experts in The Cipher Brief network agree that reform is necessary but warn against excessive disruption, likening it to "fixing your car while driving." Key concerns include maintaining mission focus amid bureaucratic downsizing, adapting to hybrid warfare, and improving intelligence-sharing mechanisms. Some advocate for stronger human intelligence operations, while others emphasize the need for AI-driven data analysis. The challenge lies in balancing reform with the urgency of emerging global threats.  The Cipher Brief 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

‘Dishonest' to suggest Ukraine could have fully defeated Russia, retake Crimea, Rubio says. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that it was "dishonest" to suggest Ukraine could completely defeat Russia and restore its internationally recognized borders, saying, "We somehow led people to believe that Ukraine would be able, not just to defeat Russia, but destroy them, push them all the way back to what the world looked like in 2012 or 2014 before the Russians took Crimea,” Rubio said. Speaking on The Megyn Kelly Show, Rubio called the war a "stalemate" that has set Ukraine “back 100 years," emphasizing the destruction of the energy grid and mass displacement of Ukrainians, 7 million of whom have fled abroad as refugees.  "Someone's going to have to pay for all this reconstruction," he warned. Rubio also paused nearly all U.S. foreign aid through the U.S. Agency for International Development, though military support remains intact. He blamed the Biden administration’s Afghanistan withdrawal for emboldening Vladimir Putin, calling it a sign of "America in decline or distracted." Echoing Donald Trump's calls for negotiations, Rubio insisted that "both sides will need to make compromises" for a peace deal. “Both sides are paying a heavy price for this. Both sides have incentives for this conflict to end.” Kyiv Independent Megyn Kelly Show

North Korean Troops No Longer Seen on Front Lines Fighting Ukraine. North Korean troops sent to aid Russia in its war on Ukraine have been withdrawn from the front lines after suffering heavy losses, according to Ukrainian and U.S. officials. Of the 11,000 deployed in November, half have been killed in just three months. Ukrainian forces describe them as fierce but poorly coordinated, advancing with little armored support. U.S. officials say the withdrawal may be temporary, with troops potentially returning after further training or tactical adjustments. North Korea has also supplied Russia with artillery, expecting support in return, particularly for its missile programs. The North Korean troops were sent to bolster Russian forces trying to push back a Ukrainian offensive inside Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Russia has reclaimed about half of an estimated 500 miles of territory Ukrainian forces initially seized last summer. New York Times

Ukraine launches new drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine launched overnight drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, setting fire to a facility in Volgograd, local authorities said Friday. The blaze was extinguished, but one worker was hospitalized. Russian air defenses reportedly downed eight drones in the region. Ukrainian official Andriy Kovalenko claimed the targeted refinery was one of Russia’s largest. Additional attacks were reported on a refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow. Kyiv continues targeting Russian energy infrastructure to weaken its war effort. Russia, meanwhile, is increasing refined fuel exports amid U.S. sanctions on crude shipments. Moscow claims to have downed 49 drones across multiple regions, including Rostov and Belgorod. Reuters

Oil Flow Through Russia’s Ust-Luga Appears to Pause After Attack. Oil shipments through Russia’s Ust-Luga port appear to have paused, potentially confirming Ukraine’s claim of a successful drone strike on the Andreapol pumping station. If confirmed, the disruption could threaten global oil supplies. A source said flows dropped to zero on Wednesday, though shipping data shows a tanker departed. Russia’s pipeline operator declined to comment. Ust-Luga handles about 650,000 barrels daily, roughly 20% of Russia’s seaborne exports. While stored oil may cushion the impact, recent unexplained declines in flow coincide with a reported incident at the Unecha pump station in Belarus. Bloomberg

ANALYSIS–Russia closes in on a key Ukrainian city, seeking a gateway for future advances. Russian forces are tightening their grip around Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian logistics hub, threatening its supply routes. With only 7,000 of its pre-war 60,000 residents remaining, the city faces artillery and drone attacks. Russian troops are now within range of a crucial highway, forcing vehicles onto backroads. Ukraine’s 59th assault brigade reports being heavily outnumbered as Russian forces attack in small, sacrificial groups. Military analysts warn that Pokrovsk’s fall could enable Russian advances westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast or north toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, advancing Russia’s goal of taking the entire Donetsk Oblast. Moscow is adapting its tactics, favoring encirclement over costly urban assaults and deploying small ambush teams with anti-tank mines. Despite Ukraine appointing a new commander, its forces are stretched thin due to recruitment struggles. With U.S. pressure for peace talks mounting, Russia’s potential capture of Pokrovsk could shift negotiations in its favor. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Trump’s most difficult deal yet. Donald Trump’s efforts to broker an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine face major obstacles, as experts see no indication that Vladimir Putin is willing to compromise. While Trump has threatened sanctions and tariffs to pressure Moscow, analysts doubt these measures would change Putin’s core goals—permanently subjugating Ukraine and keeping NATO out. Putin appears confident, with Russian forces advancing and the Kremlin securing support from China, Iran, and North Korea. Some in Trump’s circle propose a deal freezing Ukraine’s NATO bid and ceding occupied territories in exchange for U.S. security guarantees, but Kyiv remains wary of Russian intentions. Foreign Policy

Putin Is Gaining Allies in Europe at a Bad Time for Ukraine. Pro-Russian sentiment is growing in parts of Europe as Slovakia, Austria, and Croatia shift toward nationalist policies, raising concerns for Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who halted military aid to Kyiv, recently met with Vladimir Putin and echoes Russia’s war rhetoric. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, long a European Union disruptor, now has allies questioning sanctions and support for Ukraine. In Austria, far-right leader Herbert Kickl opposes sanctions, while Croatian President Zoran Milanovic condemns NATO’s role. Romania narrowly avoided electing a pro-Russian candidate, but anti-establishment forces are gaining ground. Slovakia’s former defense minister Jaroslav Nad faces prosecution for aiding Ukraine, a move he calls politically motivated. Widespread protests challenge Fico’s rule, yet nationalist leaders are growing in influence, potentially weakening EU unity. Analysts warn these shifts could further Russian interests and undermine European cohesion at a time when Ukraine’s support is already in question. Bloomberg

Kyiv slams Romanian politician over comments on Ukraine's partition. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry condemned Romanian far-right presidential candidate Călin Georgescu for calling Ukraine a “fictional state” whose partition is “inevitable,” labeling his remarks as Russian propaganda. Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi accused Georgescu of following Moscow’s agenda, dismissing his claims as revisionist and contrary to international norms. Georgescu, whose initial electoral success in November 2024 was annulled over alleged Russian interference, remains the frontrunner for the rescheduled May election. He opposes military aid to Ukraine and claimed Donald Trump would make a quick deal with Vladimir Putin. Romania’s current leadership remains firmly supportive of Ukraine’s defense. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry calls Fico 'Kremlin's mouthpiece,' summons Slovak ambassador over recent remarks. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry summoned Slovak Ambassador Pavel Vizdal on Jan. 30 to reject Bratislava’s claims that Kyiv is interfering in Slovakia’s internal affairs. The move follows Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Jan. 28 remarks calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “the enemy” of Slovakia. Ukraine condemned Fico as “the Kremlin’s mouthpiece,” warning that his stance undermines European Union unity. Tensions escalated after Slovakia summoned Ukraine’s ambassador in protest. Zelensky recently supported anti-Fico protests, which saw 100,000 demonstrators across 30 cities. Fico, who met with Vladimir Putin in December, has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine and restrict electricity supplies. Kyiv Independent

‘Everybody is tired. The mood has changed’: the Ukrainian army’s desertion crisis. Viktor, a former sniper, once willing to die for Ukraine, now runs a garage, repairing military vehicles for free. “Everybody is tired. The mood has changed. People used to hug soldiers in the streets. Now they worry about being conscripted,” he said. After being wounded in 2023, he realized, “I’m nobody. Just a number.” Desertions have surged, with 56 soldiers from the 155th Mechanised Brigade vanishing while training in France. Oleksii, another deserter, said, “The longer the war goes on, the more people like me there will be.” Ukraine’s military ombudsperson Olha Reshetylova acknowledged the exhaustion: “People want to see their families. Their children are growing up without them.” Sergeant Major Andrii Hrebeniuk admitted, “Soldiers go AWOL pretty frequently. Some return. Some don’t.” He urged allies to intervene: “It is Europe’s armies that are absent without leave. They don’t understand—or don’t want to understand—that this is their war too.” The Guardian

Ukraine’s missing people erode morale. Russia’s mass abductions in occupied Ukraine, like the disappearance of Tetiana and Oleh Plachkov in Melitopol, sap Ukrainian morale by instilling fear and forcing painful questions about the war’s cost. Tetiana, identified as a pro-Ukrainian “waiter,” was later abandoned in a coma at a hospital, likely tortured, and died. Oleh remains missing. With over 61,000 Ukrainians unaccounted for, families endure agony, unsure if their loved ones are imprisoned, dead, or lost in Russian bureaucracy. The lack of prisoner exchanges for civilians reinforces despair. Some Ukrainians now hesitate to resist occupation or even return to Russian-controlled areas, doubting whether such land is still worth fighting for. With the frontline stagnant and Donald Trump’s return raising fears of a negotiated surrender of occupied territories, Ukrainians like Tetiana’s daughter, Lyudmila, cling to fading hope. “Maybe they’ll release the civilians if they think they’ve won,” she wonders while bracing for a future where her homeland may no longer be Ukraine. BBC 

For Ukraine’s female partisans in occupation, hope lies in resistance. In Russian-occupied Ukraine, the all-female resistance group Zla Mavka wages a quiet but relentless battle against the invaders. Operating in secrecy, they post defiant messages, create anti-Russian art, and sabotage occupation forces in subtle ways. Their acts range from spreading pro-Ukrainian graffiti to slipping laxatives into Russian soldiers’ food. The risk is enormous discovery means arrest, torture, or worse. Yet they continue despite growing surveillance and deepening repression. With military liberation uncertain, their defiance keeps hope alive in occupied territories. Even as fear grips them daily, they fight on, believing resistance, however small, is a duty no one can abandon. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv Mayor Feuds with Zelensky in Schism Over Martial Law. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko escalated his feud with President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of using martial law to sideline elected officials. In a video address, Klitschko criticized the appointment of Tymur Tkachenko as Kyiv’s military administrator, arguing that Tkachenko lacks military experience and is obstructing economic decisions. The dispute comes amid speculation about a cease-fire and potential elections, where Klitschko is seen as a possible challenger to Zelensky. Critics say the central government uses military appointments to consolidate power, especially in opposition-controlled areas. The broader issue of overlapping civil and military authority has fueled tensions nationwide. New York Times

Bezrukova reinstated as head of Ukraine's Defense Procurement Agency. Maryna Bezrukova has been reinstated as head of Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency (DPA), marking the third leadership change in a week. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov had suspended her during an internal investigation into a mine purchase contract, temporarily appointing Arsen Zhumadilov. The Anti-Corruption Action Centre (ACAC) called the leadership changes illegal and an attack on anti-corruption reforms. ACAC’s Vitalii Shabunin warned the situation is damaging Ukraine’s international reputation. The G7 ambassadors urged a swift resolution to maintain defense procurement. Umerov previously criticized Bezrukova’s management, likening procurement under her leadership to an "Amazon-style" operation Ukrainska Pravda

What's behind Zelensky's recent round of sanctions on top pro-Russian Ukrainians? President Volodymyr Zelensky imposed sanctions on 18 individuals, including pro-Russian politicians, propagandists, and energy mogul Kostiantyn Hryhoryshyn. Former Opposition Platform leader Yuriy Boyko was stripped of state awards, while others faced asset freezes and economic restrictions. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko suggested the sanctions responded to a resurgence of pro-Russian figures ahead of Ukraine's elections. The move coincided with a crackdown by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which declared 222 people as suspects and arrested 85. Critics question the legality of sanctioning Ukrainian citizens without formal charges, while supporters argue it is necessary for national security during wartime. Kyiv Independent

Has Chasiv Yar fallen? No, say experts, OSINT analysts, military officials. Reports that Chasiv Yar has fallen to Russian forces are premature, according to Ukrainian officials, OSINT analysts, and military experts. While Russian troops have advanced in the city, fighting is ongoing, with Ukraine’s forces still holding central and southern areas. The battle began in April 2024 and has been marked by brutal street-to-street combat, with Moscow’s forces making slow but steady gains since crossing the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in October. Chasiv Yar’s strategic high ground makes it a key target, and its capture would threaten Ukraine’s last major strongholds in Donetsk Oblast, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Kyiv Independent

Germany's budget committee wants to approve 3 billion euros for Ukraine, sources say. Germany’s budget committee has requested Finance Minister Joerg Kukies to approve an additional €3 billion ($3.13 billion) in military aid for Ukraine. The request, backed by the opposition CDU and the FDP, was abstained on by the governing SPD and Greens. While the committee cannot authorize aid without ministerial approval, such requests are typically granted. Chancellor Olaf Scholz supports additional aid but previously argued it required suspending Germany’s debt brake, a stance that contributed to the government’s collapse. This funding would add to €8 billion allocated for Ukraine in 2024, after being reduced to €4 billion in 2025. Reuters

Sweden donates $1.2 billion aid package to Ukraine. Sweden announced its largest aid package to Ukraine, valued at $1.23 billion, marking its 18th contribution since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Defence Minister Pål Jonson stated that Sweden is negotiating with domestic and European suppliers to provide priority military equipment, including artillery and drones. The announcement comes as NATO-Ukraine Council defense ministers meet in Brussels. Sweden has steadily supported Ukraine despite not being a NATO member until 2023. The aid reinforces Europe's ongoing military assistance to Ukraine as the war nears its third year. Reuters

Death toll in Russian drone attack on Sumy rises to 9 killed, 13 injured. A Russian drone strike on a residential building in Sumy overnight on Thursday killed nine people and injured 13. The attack was part of a larger assault involving 81 drones, with Ukrainian air defenses downing 37. The strike caused severe damage, destroying 12 balconies. Sumy, located near the Russian border, has faced repeated attacks since 2022. Emergency services continue searching for victims, while some injured remain in serious condition. Kyiv Independent

1 killed, 35 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed one civilian and injured at least 35 over the past day, regional officials reported on Friday. Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 59 out of 102 Shahed-type drones launched overnight. In Donetsk Oblast, 18 were injured, including two children, with Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk heavily targeted. Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy Oblasts also suffered strikes, wounding several civilians. Kyiv saw drone debris damage a high-rise apartment but no casualties. Industrial, residential, and agricultural sites were hit across multiple regions. Kyiv Independent

Russian drones injure four in Ukraine's south, Ukrainian officials say. Russia launched 102 drones overnight, injuring four people and damaging a hospital and grain warehouse in Odesa. Ukraine’s air force intercepted 59, with 37 diverted via electronic warfare. Strikes also hit Sumy and Cherkasy, where debris damaged an apartment building. Odesa’s power supply was partially disrupted. Reuters

Russia says air defenses down 17 Ukrainian drones. Russia's Defense Ministry reported Thursday that air defenses shot down 17 Ukrainian drones in Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, and occupied Crimea over two hours Thursday night. Eleven were intercepted over Kursk, where Ukraine holds territory. Officials reported no damage or casualties. Voronezh’s governor confirmed drones but noted no injuries or destruction. Reuters

Ukraine identifies Russian commanders behind deadly hypermarket strike on Kharkiv. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) identified five Russian officers behind the May 25, 2024, airstrike on the Epicenter hypermarket in Kharkiv, which killed 19 people, including two children, and injured 46. The attack involved Su-34 bombers dropping three UMPB D-30SN guided bombs. Colonel-General Alexander Lapin ordered the strike, while Lieutenant General Valery Solodchuk planned it. Three others—Lieutenant General Oleg Makovetsky, Major General Yury Podoplelov, and Colonel Alexey Loboda—executed it. The SBU charged them in absentia with war crimes. Kharkiv remains vulnerable due to its proximity to Russia, allowing bombers to strike from Russian airspace. Kyiv Independent

Going Danish: How a small Nordic country is aiding Ukraine’s defense. Denmark has pioneered a model of military aid that funds Ukrainian-made weapons rather than foreign imports, helping Ukraine rebuild its defense industry. This initiative, launched in 2023, has delivered €590 million in locally produced arms and is expanding with backing from other NATO allies. Ukraine aims to raise at least $1 billion through the model in 2025. Cheaper labor and wartime production efficiencies make Ukrainian defense manufacturing highly competitive. Analysts suggest this model could position Ukraine as a major European arms producer, especially if it integrates with Western firms through joint ventures, mergers, and foreign investment in production facilities. Defense News

Russia's having problems with its newest ICBM. Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program is struggling, partly due to the loss of Ukrainian expertise. Before 2014, Ukraine played a key role in Russia’s missile industry, particularly through the Pivdenmash plant. However, after Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine cut military ties, forcing Russia to rely solely on domestic capabilities. Experts say Russian developers lack recent experience with liquid-fueled ICBMs, leading to multiple test failures, including an explosion in September 2024. With no viable replacement, Russia continues extending the life of its aging R-36 missile despite it being past its service viability. Sanctions, economic strain, and severed international contracts have hindered Russia’s ability to fix its missile issues. The Sarmat program faces delays. Experts warn that the failures highlight Russia’s declining technological edge in advanced weapons development. Business Insider

Russia's Soviet-era military stockpile running low, faces equipment shortages, media reports. Russia has depleted much of its Soviet-era military stockpile, with over half of its equipment lost and remaining reserves in poor condition, The Insider reported on Jan. 28. Without an unexpected shift, fighting could decline by late 2025 or early 2026 due to shortages of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. Russia has around 2,000 tanks left, with limited production capacity. The decline in equipment coincides with a slowdown in assaults, with 44% of Russian attacks now focused on Pokrovsk. Kyiv Independent

How Ukraine Lost Its Tactical Nuclear Weapons. After Ukraine gained independence in 1991, it inherited thousands of Soviet tactical nuclear weapons alongside strategic missiles. Former intelligence chief Oleksandr Skipalskiy recounts how Russia swiftly removed these weapons, working “around the clock” while blocking Ukrainian oversight of their destruction. Kyiv had attempted to halt the transfer, but then-President Leonid Kravchuk ultimately approved it, reportedly under U.S. pressure over nuclear security concerns. Some local officials resisted, but Ukraine’s military hierarchy remained linked to Moscow. Skipalskiy argues that nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent, and while some now discuss rebuilding Ukraine’s nuclear capacity, he warns that such efforts must be discreet. RFE/RL

In ‘2000 Meters to Andriivka,’ Oscar winner takes viewers back to Ukraine’s front lines. Mstyslav Chernov’s new documentary, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, premiered at Sundance, offering an immersive look at Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive. Shifting from a story of military success to one of loss, it captures the soldiers' sacrifices in harrowing detail. Chernov, who won an Oscar for 20 Days in Mariupol, balances frontline reporting with cinematic storytelling, aiming to keep global attention on Ukraine. Shot amidst deadly combat, the film blurs the line between documentary and fiction to intensify its emotional impact. Chernov sees his work as a responsibility, ensuring the world remembers Ukraine as real people, not just political bargaining chips. Associated Press

PACE refuses to name Putin 'terrorist' in Ukraine peace resolution. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) refused to register an amendment labeling Russian President Vladimir Putin a terrorist in its Ukraine peace resolution, citing rules against insulting a head of state. Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko, a co-author, on Thursday criticized the decision as political censorship, arguing "terrorist" is a legal term. Following the backlash, PACE included references to Putin’s "totalitarian regime.” Merezhko noted PACE previously declared Russia a terrorist regime and said the amendment should have been put to a vote. Russia was expelled from the Council of Europe in 2022. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 30. TASS published an interview with Valdai Club’s Fyodor Lukyanov reinforcing Kremlin narratives about future peace talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Lukyanov claimed negotiations should focus on NATO expansion rather than territorial disputes, signaling Russia’s intent to secure Western recognition of its occupied Ukrainian land. Lukyanov suggested Trump is susceptible to Kremlin pressure, urging Putin to use forceful tactics to extract concessions on Ukraine and NATO. Despite Western sanctions, Chinese companies continue supplying key materials for Russia’s military, including drone and missile components. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council fo Europe reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine, emphasizing peace must come from Ukrainian strength and Russia must abandon its imperial ambitions.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces regained ground near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, while Russia advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and the Dnipro front. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: How China and US can work together to end Ukraine war. Zhou Bo argues that China and the U.S. should collaborate to end the Ukraine war by offering a collective security guarantee to both Kyiv and Moscow. He notes the irony of Donald Trump—who once vowed to end the war in 24 hours—now seeking Beijing’s help. While China has previously attempted peace efforts, including a 12-point plan and a Brazil-backed initiative, Ukraine has dismissed them. Zhou warns that a ceasefire alone is insufficient, as both sides have territorial ambitions. He critiques French President Manuel Macron’s NATO-based peacekeeping proposal as “a fool’s errand,” suggesting neutral forces instead. South China Morning Post

Opinion: What if the US were to stop supporting Ukraine? Elaine McCusker argues that halting U.S. aid to Ukraine would be far costlier than continued support. A study from the American Enterprise Institute estimates that a Russian victory would require the U.S. to spend $808 billion more on defense over five years—seven times what has been allocated for Ukraine since 2022. Without U.S. aid, Ukraine could collapse by 2026, allowing Russia to advance to NATO’s borders and rearm for further aggression. McCusker contends that maintaining global engagement is a strategic and financial necessity, as a strong Ukraine reduces long-term U.S. military costs and stabilizes Europe. The Hill

Opinion: The Domino Theory Is Coming for Putin. Casey Michel argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s influence elsewhere, creating opportunities for the West. Russia has abandoned key allies, allowing Azerbaijan to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and losing control over Syria after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster. Moldova’s Transnistria, long a Russian-backed enclave, faces collapse, while Georgia’s pro-Russian government is struggling with mass protests. Belarus, a crucial Russian ally, could see renewed unrest after its latest fraudulent election. Michel warns that Russia's growing instability could lead to territorial fragmentation and urges the West to prepare for further setbacks and a potential post-Putin Russia. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Ukraine’s Marauding Sea Drones Bewilder Russia. David Kirichenko argues that Ukraine’s innovative use of naval drones is reshaping warfare in the Black Sea, significantly undermining Russia’s military dominance. He highlights Ukraine’s ability to destroy Russian helicopters and target advanced air defense systems using modified unmanned surface vessels (USVs). These drones have evolved beyond kamikaze strikes, now launching aerial drones for deep attacks, including in Crimea. Kirichenko compares Ukraine’s asymmetric naval success to Japan’s 1905 victory over Russia, suggesting that Ukraine’s advancements could redefine global naval warfare. He predicts that Ukraine will emerge as a leader in drone technology, influencing future military strategies worldwide. Center for European Policy Analysis

THE AMERICAS

Air crash exposes understaffed tower at Reagan airport.  Trump blames Dems and DEI. On Tuesday, Republic Airways Flight 4514 altered its approach to Reagan National Airport after a helicopter appeared near its flight path and landed safely at 8:16 p.m., the Washington Post reported Thursday, citing an audio recording from air traffic control.  At 8:47 p.m. the next night, American Eagle Flight 5342 and an Army Black Hawk helicopter on a night training mission collided, killing 60 passengers and four crew members on the plane and three crew members on the helicopter.  A report Thursday in the Washington Post suggested one possible factor: The air traffic control tower at Reagan National Airport was understaffed on Wednesday evening.  Two people were handling the jobs of four. The control tower staffing level was “not normal” for the time of day or the air traffic.  On any day, the Post reported, more than 100 helicopters a day fly near the Reagan, near arriving and departing airline flights. On Thursday, as Navy divers searched for bodies in the Potomac, experts said it may be months before the cause of the tragedy is determined.  President Donald Trump took to the White House podium to offer his “very strong opinions and ideas.”  He blamed the Federal Aviation Administration and the Obama and Biden administrations for lowering standards for air traffic controllers  in the name of diversity. “This was before I got to office recently, the second term, the F.A.A. is actively recruiting workers who suffer severe intellectual disabilities, psychiatric problems, and other mental and physical conditions under a diversity and inclusion hiring initiative spelled out on the agency’s website,” he said.  The F.A.A. has not identified any controllers involved, nor has the Pentagon named the Army helicopter crew.  Trump seemed to place the blame squarely on the helicopter pilots.  “I have helicopters. You can stop a helicopter very quickly,” Trump said. “It had the ability to go up or down. It had the ability to turn, and the turn it made was not the correct turn, obviously.” Washington Post  New York Times BBC The Guardian  Associated Press/Military Times Reuters Reuters

Three Trump nominees slog through rough confirmation hearings.  Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nominated for health secretary, spoke with uncertainty before members of the Health Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Democrats expressed doubt that Kash Patel, nominee to be director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, was going to be independent.  Tulsi Gabbard told the Intelligence Committee that her critics are “accusing me of being Trump’s puppet, Putin’s puppet, Assad’s puppet, a guru’s puppet, Modi’s puppet, not recognizing the absurdity of simultaneously being the puppet of five different puppet masters.” She condemned the intelligence agencies as being politicized by Trump’s opponents to “undermine his presidency and falsely portray him “as a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin. She is considered the nominee most likely to be rejected by the Senate.   Wall Street Journal  New York Times The Guardian Economic Times CNN Washington Post NBC  BBC  

Trump Barrels Toward Tariff Showdown with Canada, Mexico, China. President Donald Trump is set to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Saturday, citing concerns over illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade deficits. However, he is still considering whether to include oil in the tariffs, as higher costs could raise U.S. gasoline prices, a key campaign issue. Trump also threatened 100 percent tariffs on countries supporting an alternative to the U.S. dollar, particularly BRICS nations. Additionally, he plans a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, citing fentanyl production concerns. The move has drawn sharp criticism from Canadian and Mexican officials, with Canada preparing retaliatory tariffs on key U.S. exports like steel, aluminum, and bourbon. Auto manufacturers warn of higher consumer prices as supply chains across North America are deeply integrated. Economists caution that these tariffs could slow U.S. economic growth while foreign governments weigh countermeasures. Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada’s Justin Trudeau have signaled strong resistance to the measures. Bloomberg Associated Press Financial Times Reuters 

Rubio says Trump’s interest in Greenland and the Panama Canal is legitimate and driven by China concerns. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Donald Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland and reclaiming control of the Panama Canal, citing concerns over Chinese influence. Speaking Thursday on The Megyn Kelly Show, Rubio warned that China could use state-linked companies to establish dual-use facilities in Greenland, allowing military access in a crisis. “It is completely realistic to believe that the Chinese will eventually, maybe even in the short term, try to do in Greenland what they have done at the Panama Canal,” he said. On Panama, Rubio argued that Chinese firms operating ports at both ends of the canal could restrict U.S. access if Beijing ordered it. “If the government in China in a conflict tells them to shut down the Panama Canal, they will have to,” he said, calling it “a direct threat.” While Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino rejected any renegotiation, Rubio stated, “We’re going to address that topic,” adding that Trump wants to “administer the canal again.” Bloomberg Associated Press Reuters 

Trump wants to send Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador. The Trump administration is considering a plan to deport members of Venezuela’s infamous Tren de Aragua gang to El Salvador, where wildly popular President Nayib Bukele has cracked down on crime through mass incarcerations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will discuss this proposal during his upcoming trip to Central America. Additionally, Trump seeks to reinstate "safe third country" asylum agreements with El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, requiring migrants to seek asylum in those nations before applying in the U.S. Guatemala's president has publicly opposed this idea. Tren de Aragua, a violent criminal group active in multiple Latin American countries, is involved in drug trafficking, extortion, and kidnapping. Trump has already designated it as a foreign terrorist organization and begun deportation raids. Bukele’s tough-on-crime policies have drastically reduced violence in El Salvador, despite concerns about prison conditions and human rights violations. His government has not confirmed whether it will accept deported gang members. Neither the White House nor El Salvador’s government have commented on these discussions. Bloomberg Reuters

Air Force deportation flight enroute to to Guatemala avoids Mexican airspace. A U.S. Air Force jet carrying 80 migrants from Texas to Guatemala on Thursday took a longer route after it was unable to fly over Mexico. Mexican officials, however, denied blocking the flight, stating that the U.S. never requested permission. The flight, which included eight children, highlights the increasing role of the U.S. military in immigration enforcement. The Trump administration has been using military aircraft for deportations to countries like Guatemala, Ecuador, and Colombia, instead of commercial or charter planes. Some nations, such as Colombia, have resisted receiving deportees on military flights, resulting in diplomatic tensions. Bogotá initially refused U.S. military planes but later agreed after Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Colombian exports. The Pentagon has also deployed active-duty troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, signaling a possible shift in their role. Although an 1878 law prohibits military involvement in civilian law enforcement, Trump has hinted at invoking wartime powers to justify military detention and transportation of migrants. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Finland Says More Subsea Cable Damage Is ‘Very Likely.’ Finnish President Alexander Stubb warned that further damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea is “very likely” following multiple incidents since late 2023. He emphasized the importance of prevention over identifying perpetrators, noting that even if a culprit were found, the disruptions might not cease. Investigations continue into whether recent cable breaks were caused by sabotage, negligence, or accidents. Sweden recently detained a vessel suspected of damaging a cable to Latvia, while Finland is probing a Russian-linked oil tanker believed to have severed undersea links with a loose anchor in December. Bloomberg

Man Who Burned Qurans in Sweden Shot Dead During TikTok Livestream. Salwan Momika, an Iraqi refugee known for burning Qurans in Sweden in 2023, was shot dead in his Södertälje apartment while reportedly livestreaming on TikTok. Swedish police arrested five suspects and are investigating possible links to a foreign power. “I can assure you that the security services are deeply involved because there is obviously a risk that there is a connection to a foreign power,” said Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister. Momika’s Quran burnings previously sparked violent protests led Turkey to delay Sweden’s NATO accession, and resulted in Iraq expelling Sweden’s ambassador. Sweden revoked his residency over false asylum claims, but he returned after Norway rejected his application. Authorities struggled to balance free speech protections with public safety, ultimately prosecuting Momika for inciting ethnic hatred. His murder comes amid Sweden’s rising gang violence, which intelligence agencies believe foreign actors exploit to target dissidents. Iran has been suspected of using criminal networks in Sweden, though no official link has been established. Sweden has seen a surge in bombings and shootings, exacerbating security concerns. Wall Street Journal Financial Times New York Times

German Election Front-Runner Faces Backlash After Call for Immigration Stop. Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a frontrunner for chancellor, is facing backlash for passing a migration policy motion with support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). This marks the first time in postwar Germany that a parliamentary majority was achieved with AfD votes. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized Merz, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz accused him of breaking a democratic tradition by cooperating with the far right. Merz defended his decision, citing recent violent crimes by asylum seekers as justification for stricter immigration controls, including border closures and faster deportations. However, his move risks alienating centrist voters while legitimizing the AfD, whose support has been rising. Polls show CDU support slipping, while AfD and Scholz’s Social Democrats have gained ground. The controversy mirrors broader struggles across Europe, where mainstream parties are increasingly pressured by surging nationalist movements ahead of upcoming elections. Wall Street Journal Washington Post Politico EU

Norway’s government collapses over EU spat. Norway’s government collapsed after the Euroskeptic Centre Party withdrew from the ruling coalition over opposition to European Union energy laws. The departure leaves Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party to govern alone for the first time in 25 years. Norway, though not an EU member, must adopt EU laws under the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. Centre Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum rejected the EU’s fourth clean energy package, arguing it would increase electricity prices and erode Norwegian sovereignty. Labour insists the package can be partially implemented without compromising national control over energy policy. Politico EU

US aid was long a lifeline for Eastern Europe. Trump cuts are sending shockwaves. President Donald Trump’s freeze on U.S. foreign aid is sending shockwaves through Eastern Europe, disrupting funding for pro-democracy groups, independent media, and civil society initiatives. The 90-day freeze, part of Trump’s "America First" agenda, aims to eliminate spending deemed contrary to U.S. interests. The halt threatens Moldova’s independent media, election monitoring, and government transparency efforts, raising fears of increased Russian and Chinese influence. In Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania, aid suspension affects infrastructure, business development, and rule-of-law projects. Kosovo’s economy, already under EU sanctions, could suffer further setbacks. Critics warn the freeze undermines U.S. allies, potentially derailing Moldova’s EU aspirations and strengthening Moscow’s hand. Groups reliant on USAID funding, including Moldova’s Promo-LEX, say their election monitoring and oversight efforts may cease without alternative support. Experts fear the cut weakens democracy, allowing corruption and foreign influence to expand unchecked. Some are seeking European funding to fill the gap. Associated Press 

Opinion: Europe’s inaction on undersea infrastructure is a security time bomb.Former Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas warns that Europe’s undersea infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to sabotage, with Moscow being the main suspect. He highlights recent incidents, including a Chinese vessel damaging Baltic cables in late 2024 and a Russian-linked tanker severing Finland-Estonia links. While NATO has increased monitoring, gaps remain. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has proposed joint Baltic maritime patrols, but coordination is still lacking. Anušauskas urges NATO and the EU to take swift, unified action, warning that inaction could embolden Russia and China while undermining Europe’s security and economic stability. Kyiv Independent

THE MIDDLE EAST

Hamas Turns Hostage Releases into a Humiliating Spectacle for Israel. Hamas has turned hostage releases into public spectacles, using them to project dominance in Gaza while humiliating Israel. The latest release involved two civilians—Arbel Yehoud and Gadi Moses—who were forced to navigate jeering crowds, with their only protection being their Hamas captors. The militants staged the event in front of the destroyed home of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Israel condemned the display, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling for mediators to ensure hostages are not subjected to such treatment again. Mediators struggled to keep the cease-fire deal intact as Israel initially withheld the agreed-upon release of 110 Palestinian prisoners but later complied. Hamas has refined its tactics, previously parading hostages in staged ceremonies and forcing captured soldiers to participate in propaganda. The group says these events demonstrate Palestinian resilience, but analysts warn they could jeopardize negotiations for a lasting cease-fire. Wall Street Journal

Hamas Says It Will Release First American Hostage Under Current Deal. Hamas announced it would release Israeli American hostage Keith Siegel, 65, as part of the current Gaza cease-fire deal, marking the first American freed in this phase. Siegel was kidnapped on October 7, 2023, alongside his wife, Aviva, who was released in November 2023. Also set for release are Yarden Bibas, 35, whose wife and children remain hostages, and Ofer Kalderon, 54, an Israeli French citizen whose two children were freed last year. The release follows delays after Hamas deviated from the agreed order by freeing Israeli female soldiers first. Mediators hope this fragile deal, involving 33 hostages over six weeks, can lead to a permanent cease-fire. Wall Street Journal

Syrian leader Sharaa promises inclusive government.  Syria's newly appointed president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, promised Thursday in his first televised address that he will form an inclusive transitional government representing diverse Syrian communities. The transition government will build institutions and run the country until it can hold free and fair elections. Sharaa, leader of  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the armed group that led the overthrow of Bashar Assad, has set up an interim government and met with senior Western and Arab diplomatic delegations that are offering to help stabilize the country after the 13 year- civil war.  Sharaa said he would form a small legislative body until new elections were held.  In coming days he will formva committee to hold a national dialogue conference where Syrians discuss the nation’s future.  Then would come a "constitutional declaration."  Sharaa has previously said that drafting a new constitution and holding elections could take as long as four years. Reuters

Syria's new Islamist rulers to roll back state with privatizations, public sector layoffs. Syria’s new Islamist government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is launching radical economic reforms, including privatizations and cutting a third of public sector jobs. Economy Minister Basil Abdel Hanan aims to transition Syria from Bashar al-Assad’s state-led model to a competitive free market, while Finance Minister Mohammad Abazeed claims to have uncovered widespread corruption. Only 900,000 of 1.3 million people on the government payroll come to work, Abazeed said. Critics warn the pace of change is too rapid, and protests have erupted over fears of sectarian job purges. While officials promise economic stability and a 400% salary increase, skepticism remains about foreign investment amid sanctions. Elections are planned but could take four years. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Is Turkey Breaking Its Own Oil Embargo? Turkey is accused of secretly continuing oil shipments to Israel despite its official embargo. Activists tracked tankers leaving Turkey’s Ceyhan port and docking in Israel while attempting to conceal their routes. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports Azerbaijani oil through Turkey, remains a key supplier to Israel, complicating President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s position. Turkey earns significant revenue from transit fees, making a full embargo costly. Domestically, Erdogan faces backlash from pro-Palestinian supporters, while internationally, his credibility in the Muslim world could suffer. The allegations risk undermining Turkey’s regional influence, particularly in Syria, where Erdogan seeks to expand his political leverage. Foreign Policy

CENTCOM airstrike in northwest Syria kills senior al-Qaeda-linked operative. The U.S. Central Command announced on X Thursday that its forces launched a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria to kill Muhammad Salah al-Za'bir, a senior operative in the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din, an Al-Qaeda affiliate. "CENTCOM will continue to hunt and kill or capture terrorists, and defend our homeland, against groups that plot to attack US and allied personnel," said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the CENTCOM commander. Reuters  CENTCOM  Haaretz  

Gaza checkpoints will be manned by armed U.S. contractors.   A North Carolina security firm is hiring nearly 100 U.S. special forces veterans to help run a checkpoint in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas truce, Reuters reported Thursday. A recruitment email seen by Reuters offered a daily rate starting at $1,100 with a $10,000 advance to veterans. A company spokesperson said the contractors will staff a checkpoint at a key intersection in Gaza's interior, and some personnel are already in Gaza. A Palestinian official close to the talks said the contractors would be posted at the intersection of the Netzarim Corridor dividing northern and southern Gaza and Salah al-Din Street, which separates the east and west of the enclave. The American contractors will work with U.S.-based Safe Reach Solutions, which does logistics and planning, Reuters reported.  It said that Israel and unnamed "Arab countries" that worked on the agreement are funding the contingent, without input from the U.S.   Reuters  

U.N.’s Guterres calls for immediate evacuation of 2,500 Gazan children at 'imminent risk' of death. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged the immediate evacuation of 2,500 critically ill children from Gaza for medical treatment, warning that they face imminent risk of death in the devastated Palestinian enclave. The plea follows a meeting with four American doctors who volunteered in Gaza and described dire conditions due to the collapse of the healthcare system after 15 months of war. Doctors detailed cases of severe injuries, amputations, and lack of medical resources, with many children needing basic but life-saving procedures. However, current security restrictions complicate evacuations, including a rule limiting children to just one caregiver, forcing agonizing family decisions. Despite a ceasefire agreement that includes a mechanism for medical evacuations, doctors report no clear process to facilitate the transfers. Additionally, concerns remain over whether children will be allowed to return home, as discussions continue about border closures that may only allow exits. Guterres urged Israel and international authorities to guarantee safe evacuations and ensure return rights for the children. Israel has not yet responded to the UN’s demand. The WHO previously evacuated 5,383 patients before the closure of the Rafah crossing, but thousands more remain in urgent need of treatment. Reuters CNN The Guardian Times of Israel 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China builds enormous military command center in Beijing.   China’s military is building a huge complex in western Beijing for a wartime command center 10 times the size of the Pentagon the Financial Times reported.  The FT described satellite images it obtained that show a 1,500-acre construction site 30 kilometers southwest of Beijing, with holes likely to become hardened bunkers for Chinese military leaders in case of conflict, even nuclear war. The Times reported that current and former U.S. officials said the intelligence community is closely monitoring the site.  US intelligence says President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to have developed the capability to attack Taiwan by 2027. “If confirmed, this new advanced underground command bunker for the military leadership, including President Xi as the chairman of the Central Military Commission, signals Beijing’s intent to build not only a world-class conventional force but also an advanced nuclear warfighting capability,” Dennis Wilder, the former head of China analysis for the CIA, told the FT.  Financial Times  

Philippine’s Marcos says he’ll return contentious missiles to U.S. if Chine ceases aggression in South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has offered to remove an American missile system from the Philippines if China ceases its "aggressive and coercive behavior" in the hotly contested South China Sea. The U.S. installed the Typhon mid-range missile system in April 2024 as part of joint training with the Philippines, and China has repeatedly called for its removal, calling it a provocation. Marcos lambasted China’s stance, arguing that the Philippines does not comment on Beijing’s more powerful missile systems. He proposed a deal: if China stops its territorial claims, harassment of Filipino fishermen, ramming of boats, and water cannoning, he would return the missile system. A Philippine official confirmed that the Typhon system was recently repositioned closer to Manila, near areas of increasing tensions between Chinese and Philippine forces. The system includes Tomahawk missiles with a range of over 1,000 miles, capable of reaching parts of mainland China. It will remain in the Philippines indefinitely. Beijing accused the Philippines of escalating tensions, making a “dangerous” and “extremely irresponsible” choice, and inciting an arms race. However, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro dismissed the Asian giant’s demand as interference in Philippine affairs. Washington and Manila continue to condemn China's assertive actions in the region, where territorial disputes also involve Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Associated Press 

Amid promises to hold elections, Myanmar extends state of emergency for six months.  Myanmar's military junta has extended the state of emergency for another six months, just before the four-year anniversary of the 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government and triggered a brutal civil war. The junta claims the extension is necessary to ensure stability and peace ahead of a planned general election, which critics have dismissed as a sham to maintain military control. No election date has been set, but the junta continues to face staunch armed resistance from pro-democracy groups and ethnic militias. The conflict has displaced three million people, engendered widespread food insecurity, and left a third of the population in need of humanitarian aid, according to the United Nations. Despite the ongoing crisis, the junta insists on holding elections, while opponents vow to disrupt the vote and urge the international community not to recognize the results. Reuters France 24 Al Jazeera Nikkei Asia 

As antisemitic attacks surge, Jews in Australia bolster security, take steps to conceal identity. Jewish communities in Sydney and Melbourne are taking steps to protect themselves amid a string of antisemitic incidents across Australia, including a foiled attack involving a trailer filled with explosives. There’s been a rise in graffiti, arson, and vandalism, including defacement at Mount Sinai College and other locations, prompting increased police patrols and private security measures. Jewish students in Sydney returned to school under heightened security this week, and escalating threats have led many Jewish Australians to hide religious symbols, such as removing skull caps and mezuzahs, while private security demand has surged for events. Since the Israel-Gaza war erupted in late 2023, Australia has seen a surge in attacks on synagogues, buildings, and vehicles. Authorities believe that the explosives recently found in a caravan could have caused mass casualties in a targeted attack. Reuters The Jerusalem Post Australian Broadcasting Corporation  

AFRICA

Congo’s M23 militants vow to march all the way to capital, seek to oust government. Corneille Nangaa, the rebel leader at the helm of a coalition of insurgent groups that includes the Rwanda-backed M23, has vowed to take his offensive all the way to Kinshasa and remove the government of President Félix Tshisekedi. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, victorious rebel forces have tightened control on Goma, the largest city in mineral-rich eastern Congo, and unconfirmed reports suggest they are now advancing toward Bukavu. President Félix Tshisekedi has promised a “vigorous and coordinated response” to retake lost territory, but the fighting has already displaced 500,000 people, worsening the humanitarian crisis. In Goma, water, electricity, and food supplies have been disrupted, and Nangaa has declared the rebels as the new administrators, claiming they are there to stay. The conflict has heightened tensions between Rwanda and Congo, with Kinshasa accusing Rwanda of direct military involvement, a charge Kigali denies. The M23 rebels, mainly ethnic Tutsis, claim they are fighting to protect their people’s rights, while Rwanda's President Paul Kagame accuses the Congo of harboring Hutu militias responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide. In spite of international peacekeepers, threats to sever aid, and widespread condemnation, including criticism from the U.S., China, U.N., and E.U., the rebel offensive continues. A Southern African regional summit was scheduled for Friday to address the escalating situation. BBC The Guardian Associated Press

Congo's triumphant M23 rebels now seek to demonstrate their governance. Freshly victorious M23 insurgents have dismissed all international calls to withdraw from Goma, eastern Congo’s provincial capital, and are now determined to show their ability to govern and restore order to a city that until recently had bodies lining the streets. Within days, they restored power, mobile services, and reopened the border with Rwanda. Rebel leader Corneille Nangaa urged residents to resume normal activities, pledged to reopen schools, and announced a humanitarian corridor for displaced people. M23’s ability to govern Goma, a city of 2 million and a humanitarian hub, will determine if they can expand their influence in eastern Congo or face resistance, as they did in 2012. The rebels have previously run parallel administrations in conquered areas, taxing businesses and setting up intelligence networks, but governing Goma, with its international airport and large population, presents a bigger challenge. M23 has been preparing to administer territories since the collapse of peace talks in Angola last year, and they have bettered their finances this time around. The group controls lucrative mining operations, earning an estimated $800,000 per month from coltan mining. Additionally, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi’s failure to sufficiently manage the east has eroded support for his government, making M23’s approval more likely. One U.N. source explained that "a lot of people are sick and tired of the chaos. If they can trade, security improves, their daily lives improve, then M23 could be popular." Despite growing tensions, Nangaa remains confident in M23’s leadership, welcoming defectors from the Congolese government while insisting they undergo an “ideological reset.” He claims rebel leadership is a viable alternative to the current administration and aims to solidify control over eastern Congo. Reuters

France hands over last military base in Chad as era of Western influence in Africa fades. France on Jan. 30th officially handed over its last military base in Chad, the Sergent Adji Kossei air base in N’Djamena, to local authorities, marking the end of its military presence in the country. This comes in the wake of Chad’s decision to end its defense cooperation agreement with Paris, a move aimed at redefining its strategic partnerships. Chad, a key counterterrorism force in the region, was one of the last strongholds for French troops in Central Africa. France had already withdrawn from junta-led Sahel states Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where governments have shifted alliances toward Russia. The 1,000 French troops in Chad had previously operated from three bases, with the other two, in Faya and Abeche, handed over earlier. Despite the military withdrawal, Chad has stressed that its historical ties with France remain intact. The move is part of a broader trend, as Senegal and Ivory Coast also recently announced the departure of French troops, aligning with Paris' new strategy to reduce its permanent military footprint in Africa. Associated Press France 24 

French journalist, held for 711 days as a hostage of Islamic extremists in Mali, recounts story of captivity. Olivier Dubois, a French journalist who was kidnapped in April 2021 while en route to interview a leader of JNIM, an al-Qaida affiliate in Mali, has documented his ordeal in a new book, Prisonnier du désert, 711 jours aux mains d’Al-Qaïda. Dubois spent 711 days in captivity, enduring harsh conditions, including being chained to a tree in the desert. His release in March 2023 is still shrouded in mystery, and there has never been a confirmation of whether a ransom was paid. Afterward, reports emerged that Dubois’ fixer had ties to French intelligence, leading him to suspect that he was betrayed in some way. Data from the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED, shows that abductions have surged in the Sahel in recent years, as the military governments of countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger struggle to combat growing extremist and insurgent violence. Associated Press 

Uganda confirms outbreak of Ebola in Kampala, with one nurse dead. Ugandan health officials are on the offensive, acting to prevent further cases of Ebola after a male nurse at Mulago Hospital in Kampala died of the disease on Wednesday. The death of the 32-year-old nurse, who was diagnosed with the Sudan strain of Ebola after seeking treatment at multiple facilities, marks the country's first recorded fatality since its last outbreak ended in early 2023. At least 44 contacts, including 30 health workers, have been identified, and authorities are actively tracing them to contain the virus. Uganda's last Ebola outbreak killed at least 55 people. The high mobility of Kampala’s 4 million residents poses a challenge in controlling the virus's spread. Health officials and the World Health Organization (WHO) are mobilizing resources, with WHO allocating $1 million for response efforts. The Sudan strain lacks an approved vaccine, making containment crucial. Uganda has had multiple Ebola outbreaks, including a deadly one in 2000 that killed hundreds of people. The disease, spread through bodily fluids, causes severe hemorrhagic fever with high fatality rates. The source of this outbreak is still under investigation. Associated Press Reuters BBC Reuters  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

OpenAI seeking $40 billion in funding, potential valuation reaches $300 billion. Sources say that OpenAI is in discussions to secure up to $40 billion in funding, potentially raising its valuation to $300 billion. SoftBank is expected to contribute between $15 billion and $25 billion, with other investors covering the remainder. Initially, a $340 billion valuation was considered, but recent negotiations lowered the figure. If the deal goes through, OpenAI would become the second-most valuable startup worldwide, behind SpaceX, and this would mark the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history. The funds would support Stargate, a $100 billion data center project backed by SoftBank and other investors, as well as OpenAI’s ongoing operational costs. This funding effort follows competition from DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has developed low-cost AI models, raising concerns about the high spending of U.S. AI firms. OpenAI, which reported $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue last year, expects revenue to grow to $11.6 billion in 2025. The negotiations highlight the growing partnership between OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank’s CEO Masayoshi Son, who has increased investment in OpenAI’s initiatives. Wall Street Journal 

Meta, Microsoft defend massive AI spending in spite of DeepSeek's remarkably low costs. In the wake of DeepSeek’s breakthrough low-cost AI model, Microsoft and Meta CEOs justified their huge AI spending, arguing that large-scale infrastructure investment is essential to remain competitive. DeepSeek claims its AI rivals or surpasses Western competitors at a much lower cost, raising concerns about the U.S.'s AI leadership. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg have stressed that heavy capital expenditure will be a long-term strategic advantage. Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion on AI this fiscal year, while Meta has pledged up to $65 billion—a stark contrast to DeepSeek’s estimated $6 million investment in computing power. Despite these investments, some investors are growing frustrated, questioning the lack of immediate returns. Microsoft shares dropped 6% after missing Azure cloud growth estimates, while Meta shares rose 4%, despite a mixed outlook. Analysts warn that AI spending is outpacing monetization, signaling the need for a clearer roadmap to profitability. Microsoft’s CFO Amy Hood indicated that capital spending would remain steady in the short term but grow at a slower rate in fiscal 2026, suggesting a more cautious approach to future AI investments. Reuters

U.S. Lawmakers advise Trump to weigh new restrictions on Nvidia chips used by DeepSeek. Two U.S. lawmakers, John Moolenaar (R) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), are urging the Trump administration to consider restricting the export of Nvidia's AI chips, particularly the H20 model, over concerns that Chinese AI firm DeepSeek is using them extensively. Their request is part of a Commerce and State Department-led review aimed at strengthening U.S. export controls against strategic adversaries like Beijing. The concern stems from DeepSeek’s new AI assistant, which reportedly operates efficiently with minimal data and lower costs, raising fears about China's rapid AI advancements. The U.S. House of Representatives has also banned the use of DeepSeek, citing security risks. Washington is worried that China could exploit AI for cyberattacks or bioweapons development, concerns that precipitated previous Biden administration restrictions on China’s access to advanced AI chips. Trump’s administration is now considering further restrictions on Nvidia's H20 chips, even though they were originally designed to comply with existing U.S. export controls. Nvidia has stated that it follows all government regulations and is willing to collaborate with the administration on AI policies. Reuters Select Committee on the CCP 

Italian government blocks access to China’s DeepSeek in bid to protect users’ data. Italy’s data protection authority, Garante, has blocked access to the Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek and launched an investigation into its data practices. The move comes after DeepSeek failed to adequately respond to questions about its data collection, storage, and user notification processes. Despite the authority’s findings, DeepSeek claimed it does not operate in Italy and is not subject to European data laws. DeepSeek’s chatbot has rapidly gained millions of users worldwide, intensifying competition in the AI market, shocking Silicon Valley, and challenging U.S. generative AI leaders at a lower cost. Associated Press Reuters The Record 

South Korean privacy watchdog will ask DeepSeek about use of personal info. South Korea's privacy watchdog will request information from DeepSeek about user data management. The country's Personal Information Protection Commission plans to send a written inquiry to the Chinese AI model's operators. Other countries, including France, Italy, and Ireland, are also investigating DeepSeek's data practices. Reuters 

International police operation dismantles two massive cybercrime forums, arrest suspects. Authorities on Thursday announced that an international law enforcement operation has taken down two major cybercrime forums, Cracked and Nulled, which had around 10 million users and generated millions in profits. These platforms facilitated the trade of stolen data, malware, and hacking tools. Authorities from multiple countries, including the FBI, and Spanish and German police, participated in the crackdown. Both Nulled and Cracked had been operating since 2015 and 2018, respectively, and were tightly linked. Cracked generated $4 million and affected 17 million U.S. victims, while Nulled had 43 million cybercrime-related posts and earned $1 million annually. Associated services like Sellix (a payment processor) and StarkRDP (a hosting service) were also shut down. Two suspects, including an Argentinian residing in Spain, were arrested, while law enforcement identified six more individuals involved. Authorities seized electronic devices, cryptocurrency, and $300,000 in cash. The investigation, ongoing since March of last year, is part of a broader effort to combat cybercrime, following recent takedowns of other illicit platforms. The Record Bleeping Computer U.S. Department of Justice Europol TechTarget   

Cyberattack targets South Africa’s government-operated weather service. A cyberattack took the South African Weather Service (SAWS) offline on Sunday, disrupting critical services for aviation, marine operations, and weather forecasting. The attack, which follows a failed attempt two days earlier, has affected SAWS’ website and email system, forcing the agency to share updates via social media. SAWS is working with ICT providers to restore services and has reported the breach to law enforcement. No ransomware group has claimed responsibility, but South Africa has faced repeated cyberattacks in recent years, targeting public institutions, including the Defense Department and national lab service. SAWS, which also provides weather data to regional allies, remains offline as investigations continue. The Record

Boom Supersonic XB-1 jet takes historic test flight, breaking sound barrier three times. Boom Supersonic’s XB-1 jet made history on January 28 by breaking the sound barrier for the first time. The test flight took place at Mojave Air & Space Port in California, with chief test pilot Tristan "Geppetto" Brandenburg reaching speeds above Mach 1 at around 35,000 feet. This marks the first time a civil aircraft has gone supersonic over the continental U.S. The XB-1 exceeded Mach 1 three times during the flight to test its handling capabilities. The event was monitored by chase planes—a Dassault Mirage F1 and a Northrop T-38 Talon—and was live streamed via SpaceX’s Starlink satellite system, offering an unprecedented live view of the milestone. The XB-1 serves as a technology demonstrator for Boom Supersonic’s planned Overture passenger jet, a 64-to-80 seat supersonic aircraft designed to cut flight times in half. The company already has over 100 orders from major airlines and aims to bring supersonic travel back to commercial aviation, following the retirement of the Concorde in 2003. Space.com

What are NASA’s astronauts on the International Space Station up to? Veteran NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore conducted a spacewalk outside the International Space Station (ISS) on Thursday, as part of their unexpectedly extended mission. They removed degraded radio communications hardware and collected samples for an experiment studying microorganisms on the station’s exterior. The spacewalk lasted 5 hours and 26 minutes, during which Williams set a new record for total spacewalking time. The astronauts' mission, which began in June aboard Boeing’s Starliner, was initially expected to last about eight days. However, technical issues with Starliner forced NASA to extend their stay, and they will now return aboard SpaceX Crew-9 no earlier than late March, after the arrival of Crew-10. This will bring their total time in space to nearly 10 months. Despite the extended mission, Williams and Wilmore have maintained high spirits, focusing on their work and dismissing claims that they feel abandoned. They continue to contribute to ISS operations while awaiting their return to Earth. CNN Space.com    

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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