Report for Friday, January 24, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Friday, January 24, 2025

Trump asks China to help end the war in Ukraine

Ukraine's military intelligence chief says North Korean weapons are flooding into Russia

Trump defense secretary pick Hegseth survives US Senate test vote; final vote Friday

The Deep-Sea Battle Over the World’s Data Cables Is Heating Up

U.N. cautions Congo's conflict with M23 insurgents could trigger regional war

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

NATO and Ukraine in the Trump 2.0 Era.  NATO issues have come to the fore with the return of Donald Trump to The White House. Trump has long criticized the alliance for not doing enough to shore up its own defenses. On Thursday, Trump called on NATO members to boost defense spending up to 5% of GDP. The Cipher Brief spoke with two American experts with deep experience in matters pertaining to NATO—Matthew Brzezinski, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy, and Sandy Vershbow, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia—about what may be in store for the alliance, including on Ukraine.  The Cipher Brief

Russia’s Economy in 2025: A War Machine Running Low on Fuel. Russia’s economy is sagging under the weight of sanctions, inflation, and high borrowing costs. After an initial wartime boom driven by defense spending, the Kremlin is facing big trouble – from stalled economic growth to a spike in inflation to a plunge in the value of the ruble. Yet the Kremlin continues to pour money into the war effort. Hollie McKay, Cipher Brief writer and reporter, investigates the Kremlin’s money woes and ponders whether it can turn its economy around.  While Western hopes that the sanctions would bring economic collapse proved premature, the cumulative toll is now evident.  The Cipher Brief

Expert Q&A: Should Trump Meet Putin?  President Donald Trump has made several remarks about needing to swiftly end the Ukraine war, calling it "an absolute killing field" and threatening to impose new tariffs and sanctions on Russia unless Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to "STOP this ridiculous War!" as he posted on social media. He has also said a meeting between him and his Russian counterpart is in the works, which the Biden administration and many European nations have refused to consider. Former Acting Director of the CIA John McLaughlin discusses on the wisdow of such a meeting.  The Cipher Brief

Expert Q&A: North Korea and Russia – ‘Fighting and Dying’ Together.  Western officials report that 4,000 of the estimated 11,000 North Korean troops sent to fight  Russia’s war on Ukraine have been killed, wounded, missing or captured — a casualty or attrition rate of nearly 40%. North Korea’s entry into the Ukraine war was among the one of the biggest geopolitical surprises in 2024.  Cipher Brief writer Ethan Masucol asked former Senior CIA Officer Daniel Hoffman, who was once posted to Moscow, to discuss the significance of the capture of North Korean soldiers, and the wider question of what the presence of North Korean troops on the battlefield means for Pyongyang’s relationship with Russia. “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin needs cannon fodder,” Hoffman said, “but Putin also wants to demonstrate for the world to see that Russia’s ally is North Korea. Nothing says we are allied like fighting and dying on the battlefield together.” The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump asks China to help end the war in Ukraine and blames Russia, high oil prices for its continuation. Appearing in a video link to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Thursday, Donald Trump outlined strategies to end the war in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for external pressure on Russia. He called on China to leverage its influence, citing its economic ties to Russia and its ability to shape outcomes. Trump said he directly asked President Xi Jinping to help stop the war, noting China's "great deal of power over that situation." Trump also urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations to lower oil prices, arguing that reduced energy revenues would choke off Russia's ability to finance the war. "If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately," he said. “They should have done it long ago. They’re very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what’s taking place. Millions of lives are being lost.” Asked whether he believed the war in Ukraine would end by the time the WEF returned to Davos in a year, Trump said: "Well, you're gonna have to ask Russia. Ukraine is ready to make a deal." The Telegraph Politico EU The Guardian Transcript of Trump’s speech

Trump suggests Ukraine shouldn't have fought back against Russia. In a Fox News interview, President Donald Trump criticized both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, reiterating his belief that Ukraine should not have fought back against Russia’s 2022 invasion. Trump described Zelensky as "no angel," claiming he could have brokered a deal to prevent the war. "Zelensky was fighting a much bigger entity — much bigger, much more powerful. He shouldn't have done that because we could have made a deal and it would have been a deal that would have been — it would have been a nothing deal," Trump said. "I could have made that deal so easily, and Zelensky decided that 'I want a fight.’’’ Trump emphasized his readiness to impose severe tariffs and sanctions on Russia if it fails to negotiate peace, stating, "If they don’t settle this war soon, like almost immediately, I’m going to put massive tariffs on Russia." Trump, who met Zelensky in September 2024, argued the war "has to stop" and promised to end it within a day of negotiations. Fox News NBC News USA Today

In Davos, buoyed by Trump, hopes for peace in Ukraine grow. At Thursday's World Economic Forum in Davos, optimism about peace in Ukraine gained momentum as Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric on Russia shifted perceptions. In a virtual address, Trump demanded Russia negotiate an end to the war, calling it a “ridiculous” conflict and warning Moscow of worsening consequences if it continued. Analysts in Davos welcomed this stance, noting Russia’s economic strain and declining war capacity. Ukrainian officials stressed that Western military aid and security guarantees remain vital to ensure a durable peace. Trump urged NATO members to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the push. “The problem is not Trump or the U.S.,” Rutte said. “The problem is Europe.” The emerging consensus: peace talks must leave Kyiv in a position of strength. While Russian demands for a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine persist, Davos participants rallied behind Ukraine’s vision of sovereignty and territorial restoration, buoyed by the renewed pressure Trump’s stance could bring to Moscow. Washington Post.

Ukraine says Trump's sanctions threat sends 'strong signal' to Russia. Ukraine welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to agree to end the war, calling it a "strong signal." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at the World Economic Forum in Davos: "We do welcome such strong messages from President Trump... and believe we have an additional chance to get a new dynamic in diplomatic efforts to end this war." While Kyiv has urged tougher sanctions, concerns linger over a rushed deal favoring Russia. Reuters

Trump Allies Give Europe’s Leaders Reality Check on Ukraine. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. and European leaders clashed over Ukraine’s potential NATO membership and approaches to ending the war. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized that peace talks should only begin when Ukraine is strong, warning against a “bad deal” that could embolden Russia. Trump envoy Richard Grenell criticized European allies, stating, “You cannot ask the American people to expand NATO when current members aren’t paying their fair share.” Grenell also called the lack of U.S.-Russia dialogue “outrageous.” Ukrainian allies applauded pro-Kyiv sentiments, while Trump’s nationalist stance, including sanctions threats, previewed future transatlantic tensions. Wall Street Journal

Europeans Push Trump to Play a Part in Guarantees for Ukraine. European officials are pressing President Donald Trump to commit to U.S. participation in peacekeeping guarantees for Ukraine as efforts to end the war intensify. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists U.S. troops must be involved in deterring Russia, while Trump signals openness to security guarantees but expects Europe to bear most of the burden. European leaders worry U.S. reluctance to provide substantial military support could undermine NATO and weaken guarantees. Bloomberg

Russia's drone attack kills 3 in Ukraine's Kyiv region. Russia’s overnight drone attack Friday on Ukraine’s Kyiv region killed three civilians and injured one, damaging residential buildings, private homes, commercial structures, and vehicles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 25 of 58 drones, while electronic warfare redirected 27 others. Russian forces have intensified air assaults, deploying over 7,000 drones in 2024—double the previous year’s total—though many were neutralized. Officials reported sustained targeting of civilian areas, highlighting the increasing reliance on drones as the war nears its three-year mark. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 9 over the past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed six people and injured nine, targeting multiple oblasts, authorities said Friday. Besides the overnight Friday attack that killed three civilians, including a married couple, in the Kyiv region, Russia hit other areas. Donetsk Oblast reported two deaths and five injuries, with strikes on Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk. In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone attack killed a woman, while Kherson Oblast saw three injuries and damage to homes. Reuters

Russia says it repelled a massive Ukrainian drone attack on 13 regions, including Moscow. Russia claims to have repelled a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight Friday, destroying 121 drones across 13 regions, including Moscow, where air defenses intercepted several attacks. Targets included oil depots, power stations, and factories. Russia's Defense Ministry noted disruptions at Moscow airports and power outages in Kursk, while Ukrainian sources reported strikes on facilities producing military components in Ryazan and Bryansk. Reuters

Ukraine Is Losing Fewer Soldiers Than Russia — but It’s Still Losing the War. While Russia suffers nearly double the casualties of Ukraine, it replenishes forces at a far greater pace, drawing on its larger population, conscripting prisoners, and deploying 11,000 North Korean troops. Ukraine, by contrast, faces stalled recruitment efforts amid draft evasion and corruption. Estimates suggest Ukraine has lost over 100,000 soldiers, including at least 35,000 missing and presumed dead, casting doubt on the lower official figures. This imbalance has led to a battlefield disparity, with over 400,000 Russian troops facing 250,000 Ukrainians. Despite inflicting heavy losses on Russia, Ukraine’s limited manpower and recruitment delays strain its ability to sustain the fight. Russia’s recruitment and external support enable it to expand its forces. Each Ukrainian casualty deepens the challenge as the Kremlin capitalizes on its numerical advantage to grind down Ukraine’s defenses. New York Times

Ukraine is reforming its recruitment efforts to attract younger soldiers and boost forces. Ukraine is finalizing reforms to its recruitment system to attract 18- to 25-year-olds, a group exempt from conscription, according to Colonel Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of the President’s Office. Describing the effort as an “honest contract,” Palisa outlined plans for financial incentives, training guarantees, and improved dialogue between soldiers and commanders. He emphasized the need to modernize the Soviet-era system, which has hindered Ukraine’s ability to replenish battlefield losses. “We actually have a huge mobilization resource… the mechanism we currently have does not allow us to be as effective as we could be,” he said. Palisa, a former frontline commander, highlighted the urgency of adapting military structures to modern warfare, citing challenges on the 1,000-kilometer frontline. Associated Press

Russia rejects the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia has dismissed NATO's proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, warning it could lead to an "uncontrollable escalation." On Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized comments from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about their nations’ potential contributions to such a force. Pistorius noted Germany's role as NATO’s largest European partner, while Starmer expressed Britain’s willingness to participate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested at least 200,000 peacekeepers might be needed to secure any ceasefire. Reuters

Russia reacts to Trump’s sanctions threat: Zzzzzzzzzz. Russian officials have largely dismissed President Donald Trump’s threats of additional sanctions and tariffs if Moscow fails to negotiate a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized Trump’s warnings as political posturing, reiterating Russia’s readiness for dialogue but stating that no substantive signals from the U.S. have been received. President Vladimir Putin prioritizes a settlement that secures Russia’s territorial gains, demilitarizes Ukraine, and keeps the nation out of NATO.  Meanwhile, Trump’s acknowledgment that negotiations may take longer highlights the challenges in ending the war.  Politico EU Wall Street Journal

Did Ukraine Kill Its Own by Downing a Russian Plane? A Year Later, It Hasn’t Said. One year after a Russian IL-76 military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashed in the Belgorod region, Ukraine has not confirmed its involvement or released investigation findings. Russia accuses Ukraine of downing the plane with a Patriot missile, a claim supported by U.S. officials. The crash, which occurred during a planned prisoner exchange, sparked an international outcry and calls for transparency. Ukrainian officials suggested the plane, often used for ammunition transport, was a legitimate target but denied knowledge of prisoners onboard. Families of the victims await answers, having submitted DNA for identification. Despite a November exchange of remains, no official identifications have been confirmed. The incident highlights persistent ambiguity in the Russia-Ukraine war, with both sides reluctant to disclose missteps. New York Times

With Support Dwindling and Trump in Power, Zelensky Could Face Tough Re-election. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces declining domestic support and rising political opposition as the war with Russia nears its third year. Once enjoying 90% approval, recent polls show trust at 52%, with rivals like former military commander Valery Zaluzhny gaining traction. Zelensky’s challenges are compounded by Donald Trump’s return to power, with the U.S. president adopting a skeptical stance on military aid and calling Zelensky “the greatest salesman in history.” Despite opposition figures like Yulia Tymoshenko seeking ties with Trump’s team, Zelensky’s administration has scrambled to strengthen relations, even considering acquiring Ukrainian-language rights to Melania Trump’s book. Oleksandr Merezhko, a Zelensky ally, dismissed opposition outreach as “political PR,” emphasizing Ukraine’s democratic values. Trump has alternated between praise and criticism, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions “destroying Russia.” New York Times

Ukraine intelligence chief says North Korean weapons are flooding into Russia. Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, said Thursday that North Korea has supplied Russia with substantial military aid, including 120 self-propelled artillery guns, 120 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 148 short-range ballistic missiles in 2024, with more expected in 2025. He also estimated that 12,000 North Korean troops are fighting alongside Russian forces, though a third have reportedly been killed or wounded. This marks a deepening military collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang following a 2024 defense treaty. Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia, a rare occurrence as wounded North Korean troops are typically executed to conceal their presence. North Korean troops have adapted quickly to combat conditions in Ukraine, gaining a reputation for bravery and discipline. Reinforcements could arrive within two months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the captured soldiers were being interrogated in Kyiv, while Russian bloggers and Ukrainian officials corroborate the flow of North Korean weaponry. Washington Post Kyiv Independent

North Korea prepares to send more troops to Russia, South Korea says. South Korea suspects North Korea is preparing to send more troops to Russia after suffering losses in the Russia-Ukraine war, with over 3,000 North Korean soldiers reportedly killed or wounded. Pyongyang had deployed around 12,000 troops to Russia, supplying artillery and conventional weapons. Ukraine recently captured two North Korean soldiers. Despite initial denials, Russian President Vladimir Putin later acknowledged North Korean military presence. Experts warn that deepening ties between Russia and North Korea may bolster Pyongyang's nuclear program. Associated Press Reuters 

57% of Ukrainians believe peace without full territorial integrity will fail, poll shows. A recent Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll shows 57% of Ukrainians believe peace without full territorial integrity will fail, a view shared across demographics. The survey highlights mixed opinions on U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, with those prioritizing territorial integrity more likely to view him negatively. As Trump explores delaying Ukraine's NATO membership for peace talks, President Vladimir Putin reiterates demands for keeping 20% of Ukrainian territory that Russia currently occupies. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv investigates another case of Russian soldiers executing Ukraine POWs. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office opened a war crimes case Thursday after a video surfaced showing Russian soldiers executing six unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk. The video, circulated on Telegram, depicts Russian soldiers shooting POWs methodically, violating the Geneva Convention. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has filed complaints with the United Nations and Red Cross, citing a sharp rise in such incidents, with 177 executions recorded since 2022. Lubinets condemned Russia's systemic disregard for international law and called for justice. Despite Kremlin denials, figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have openly encouraged the mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs. Politico EU

Norway accused of profiting from war in Ukraine. Norway has faced criticism for profiting from Russia’s war on Ukraine by generating €107.7 billion in additional revenue due to soaring gas prices, becoming Europe’s top natural gas supplier following the Russian embargo. Despite its vast oil fund valued at €1.7 trillion, Norway allocated only €2.3 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2024, less than Denmark’s €3.6 billion contribution. Critics, including Denmark’s Politiken newspaper and Norwegian economists, argue Oslo is not doing enough to support Ukraine, ranking ninth in aid proportional to GDP, far behind other nations like Denmark and Estonia. Le Monde

Ukraine's fighter pilots use valuable Cold War skills, former US pilot says. Ukrainian fighter pilots are reviving Cold War-era low-altitude flying techniques to counter extensive air defense threats, offering valuable lessons to the West. Retired U.S. Air Force Col. John Venable emphasized the challenge and necessity of these tactics, saying, “Your ability to actually fly really low... takes a while to do. In the process, you lose a lot of aircraft and pilots.” While Western forces have shifted to medium-altitude operations and rely on stealth technology, Venable cautioned that advancements in surface-to-air missile systems might force even stealth platforms to re-adopt low-level strategies. Ukraine’s experience highlights the importance of adapting air tactics, stocking air defenses, and preparing for grinding, high-intensity conflicts like the war with Russia. Venable noted that “we could learn a lot” from Ukrainian pilots about countering modern threats. Business Insider 

Russia accuses UNICEF head of caring more about kids in Ukraine than Gaza. Russia on Thursday accused UNICEF head Catherine Russell of prioritizing Ukrainian children over those in Gaza after she declined to brief the United Nations Security Council on Gaza's humanitarian crisis, citing scheduling conflicts. Russia's envoy claimed this reflected bias, while UNICEF stated Russell had addressed Gaza’s children previously and delegated the task. U.S. envoy Dorothy Shea rejected accusations of U.S. complicity in Gaza's suffering following earlier vetoes supporting Israel. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher reported 17,000 children in Gaza separated from families. Humanitarian aid surged after a recent ceasefire. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 23. Russia plans to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, and artillery systems, including M-1989 Koksan and M-1991 MLRS, to Kursk Oblast, with North Korean troops training Russian forces on these weapons. The Kremlin is worried about perceptions of economic instability, with some Russian elites advocating for negotiations to end the war as President Vladimir Putin faces pressure from economic strains. Ukrainian officials are investigating footage showing Russian forces executing at least six unarmed Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is taking steps to shield industrial facilities in Russian border regions from potential Ukrainian strikes.

Battlefield update: Russian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: America must continue to arm Ukraine — without U.S. taxpayer dollars. Jack Keane and Marc A. Thiessen argue for a shift in U.S. support for Ukraine, proposing that Ukraine transition from being an aid recipient to a defense consumer. They advocate using frozen Russian assets, valued at $300 billion, to finance Ukraine’s purchase of U.S. weapons, alleviating the burden on U.S. taxpayers. They also suggest leveraging Ukraine’s vast natural resources, worth an estimated $26 trillion, as collateral for loans to procure military equipment. The authors emphasize this approach would strengthen U.S.-Ukraine defense ties while revitalizing America’s defense industrial base. Keane and Thiessen also highlight existing legal frameworks, such as lend-lease programs and foreign military financing. Washington Post

Opinion: Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilize its citizens to fight? Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko argue that Ukraine’s struggle to mobilize citizens for the war reflects deeper sociopolitical fractures. They highlight growing public discontent with the unequal burdens of war, as the rural poor are disproportionately conscripted while urban elites evade service. The post-Soviet social contract, marked by state neglect and individual survivalism, has left Ukrainians skeptical of patriotic calls for sacrifice. Public polls reveal widespread opposition to mobilization, with many viewing it as futile. Corruption, such as bribery for draft exemptions, exacerbates class divides. Military morale suffers as forcibly conscripted troops face poor treatment and high casualties. The authors contend Ukraine’s leadership has failed to inspire a unified national vision, relying instead on fear of invasion and devastation. This fragmented sense of purpose undermines the state’s ability to rally its population for the war, leaving many questioning whether this fight truly represents their Ukraine. Al Jazeera 

Opinion: Cash-Rich Ukraine Is Future-Proofed (for Now). Timothy Ash highlights Ukraine's strong financial position, bolstered by Western aid, including the G7’s $50 billion Extraordinary Revenue Agreement (ERA), which securitizes future interest from $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets. Coupled with the European Union’s €50 billion macro financial assistance program and contributions from other allies, plus cash reserves, Ukraine has access to $150 billion, sufficient to meet funding needs until 2026. However, U.S. military support remains pivotal. Without it, Ukraine's defense could falter. Ash suggests President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government could independently fund U.S. arms contracts, appealing to Trump’s mercantilist instincts by creating U.S. jobs. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

Trump’s 'America first' era takes hold. Speaking to State Department personnel this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that U.S. foreign policy would be "centered on one thing, and that is the advancement of our national interest ... Anything that makes us stronger or safer or more prosperous ... - that will be our mission."  Former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told a UK broadcaster: "Trump was elected as a disruptor. The message is: 'Buckle up'. They don't buy the argument that America benefits from its global stabilizing role. One should respect the electoral mandate that he has but also understand that he's not kidding. "Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who met Rubio on Tuesday, said he had stressed Japan had been the largest foreign investor in the U.S. for the last five years and was now spending much more on defense as Trump demanded.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed that on Thursday, saying Trump was "right" to demand U.S. allies do more on their own defense. Reuters

Trump defense pick Hegseth survives US Senate test vote, final vote Friday. The Senate voted largely along party lines Thursday to advance Pete Hegseth, President Trump’s nominee to serve as secretary of Defense, brushing aside misconduct allegations and the objections of Democrats who say he is unqualified for the job. The 51-49 vote to end debate on Hegseth’s nomination sets the stage for a final confirmation vote Friday. Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) voted against Hegseth.  Reuters The Guardian The Hill Associated Press

Senate confirms John Ratcliffe to lead the CIA.  John Ratcliffe, a former Texas congressman who served as director of national intelligence during President Donald Trump’s first term, was confirmed by the Senate Thursday to serve as CIA director. The vote to confirm Ratcliffe was 74-25. Washington Post NPR Associated Press Reuters

Donald Trump is targeting Mexico like no other country.  President Donald Trump’s first actions in office heavily targeted Mexico. He designated its gangs as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), declared a border emergency, reinstated restrictive migration policies, and renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America.” While he delayed imposing tariffs on Mexican goods, he ordered investigations into trade imbalances and hinted at Feb. 1 as a possible start date for tariffs. Labeling gangs as FTOs grants the U.S. enhanced legal tools but risks escalating tensions. Trump also ended pathways for legal migration, reinstated the “Remain in Mexico” policy, and deployed 1,500 troops to the border. Tijuana, fearing overwhelmed resources, declared its own emergency. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged collaboration on gangs but rejected holding migrants awaiting U.S. asylum. She condemned the renaming of the Gulf and criticized Trump’s plans, which may boost illegal migration. With approval ratings at 78%, Sheinbaum leads Mexico’s measured response. The Economist 

Trump says he is not sure US should be spending anything on NATO. U.S. President Donald Trump questioned U.S. spending on NATO, stating, "I'm not sure we should be spending anything, but we should certainly be helping them. We're protecting them. They're not protecting us." Speaking after signing an executive order on Thursday, Trump reiterated his demand for NATO members to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP, far exceeding current commitments. "They should up their 2% to 5%," Trump said, echoing comments made earlier at the World Economic Forum in Davos. While the U.S. contributes 15.8% of NATO’s $3.5 billion annual budget, its broader defense spending, $816.7 billion in 2023, dwarfs that of other alliance members. Analysts and officials deem Trump’s proposed 5% target unattainable but anticipate a new NATO spending goal, possibly 3%, at the June summit in The Hague. Eight members still fail to meet the current 2% goal, set a decade ago. Reuters

Trump: US doesn't need Canadian energy or cars. President Donald Trump, speaking virtually at the World Economic Forum at Davos, said the US does not need Canadian energy, vehicles or lumber. He taunted Canadians, to gasps in the hall, saying, "You can always become a state, and if you're a state, we won't have a deficit. We won't have to tariff you.” Trump has threatened to lay 25% tariffs on Canadian imports.  Roughly 75% of Canada's exports, much of them car parts, go to the U.S. Car parts can cross the borders between the US and Mexico and Canada multiple times before a vehicle is finally assembled. He falsely claimed that the US has a trade deficit with Canada of between $200bn and $250bn.  The trade deficit with Canada - expected to be $45bn in 2024 - is mostly driven by US energy demands.  In 2024, Canadian energy exports came to almost $170bn , according to a recent analysis by TD Bank economists. BBC 

Seattle federal judge blocks Trump’s birthright citizenship order. A federal judge in Seattle on Thursday temporarily blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order denying U.S. citizenship to children born to parents living illegally in the U.S., calling it “blatantly unconstitutional.”   At least five lawsuits challenging Trump’s order are being brought by 22 states  “I’ve been on the bench for over four decades. I can’t remember another case where the question presented was as clear as this one is,” U.S. District Judge John Coughenour, 84, a Ronald Reagan appointee, told a Justice Department attorney in federal court in Seattle. “This is a blatantly unconstitutional order.” He scheduled a hearing on Feb. 6 to decide whether to block it long term as the case proceeds. The 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868 in the aftermath of the Civil War, ensured citizenship for former slaves and free African Americans, saying: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” Trump’s order asserts that the children of noncitizens are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S., and therefore not entitled to citizenship. Financial Times  New York Times  Associated Press  Bloomberg

Trump says he would ‘rather not’ impose tariffs on China. In an interview with Fox News, President Donald Trump said his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week was friendly and he thought they could reach a trade deal. Since taking office, Trump has spoken about a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports because fentanyl is being sent from China to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada. Trump has also threatened tariffs against the European Union, Mexico and Canada. “We have one very big power over China, and that's tariffs, and they don't want them, and I'd rather not have to use it, but it's a tremendous power over China," Trump said.  Bloomberg BBC Reuters

ANALYSIS–Trump 2.0 is going well for China so far. But can the honeymoon last? President Donald Trump’s second term has started on a positive note for China, with Trump signaling a willingness to engage. He granted a 75-day reprieve to TikTok, expressed interest in visiting Beijing, and highlighted the potential for a “very good relationship” during the World Economic Forum in Davos. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang welcomed the softened stance, stating China seeks “balanced trade.” Analysts like Liu Dongshu see an opportunity for Beijing to negotiate strategically, avoiding Trump’s earlier confrontational trade policies. However, skepticism remains. Trump has retained the possibility of imposing tariffs, calling them a “tremendous power,” and ordered a review of trade relations. Beijing is preparing countermeasures, including tighter export controls. Xi Jinping stressed respecting China’s “core interests,” such as Taiwan while maintaining cooperation on economic issues. Observers caution against overconfidence, emphasizing that despite Trump’s initial warmth, the U.S. still views China as a strategic rival. CNN

US active-duty troops headed for Texas, San Diego to support border security. Active-duty military troops were to arrive in El Paso, Texas, and San Diego Thursday evening, in the first wave of forces deployed to secure the southern border. The Pentagon announced Wednesday that about 1,500 troops were being sent to the border this week,  under President Donald Trump’s executive order demanding an immediate crackdown on immigration. Thousands more active duty, National Guard and Reserves personnel are expected soon. Associated Press

ICE agents raid New Jersey worksite looking for illegals.  U.S. immigration agents rounded up undocumented migrants as well as American citizens in a raid of a Newark worksite Thursday. Newark city's mayor said a U.S. military veteran was detained, and people's rights were violated.  The veteran’s fate was unclear.  White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said on X that the Trump administration arrested 538 people Thursday, describing all of them as "illegal immigrant criminals. She said they included members of a Venezuelan prison gang and people convicted of sex crimes. Reuters The Guardian CBS

Rubio to visit Central America, including Panama. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on his first official trip abroad next week, will go to Central America, including Panama, which President Donald Trump has riled with talk of reclaiming the Panama Canal. Rubio, a former Florida senator who is the son of Cuban immigrants, will visit El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said Thursday. “This is a serious approach by the secretary to deal with the issues that directly affect our ability to get this nation back on her feet and to deal with why there is such high migration,” Bruce said.  She said the trip “signals something to those countries, it should signal something to Americans and to those who also said that ‘America First’ was an isolationist argument. It is the opposite.”  Associated Press

Trump says he will reach out to North Korea's Kim Jong Un.  U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview broadcast on Thursday that he plans to seek to engage North Korean leader Kim Jong Un anew after the two men developed a working relationship in Trump's first term. "I'll reach out to him again," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity. South China Morning Post Reuters

US to leave World Health Organization. The United States will leave the World Health Organization on Jan. 22, 2026, the United Nations said on Thursday, after being formally notified of the decision by President Donald Trump, who has accused the agency of mishandling the pandemic and other international health crises.  Trump announced the move on Monday, hours after he was sworn in for a second four-year term. The WHO said on Tuesday that it regretted the move from its top donor country. Reuters

Trump orders release of JFK and MLK assassination documents. President Donald Trump has ordered officials to make plans to declassify documents related to three assassinations in US history - the killings of John F Kennedy, Robert F Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr. "A lot of people are waiting for this for long, for years, for decades," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. "And everything will be revealed. “The order directs top administration officials to come up with a plan to declassify the documents within 15 days.  BBC 

Haitians up in arms after government spends $3.8M for a four-hour visit from Colombia’s Petro. The Haitian government spent over $3.8 million on rapid infrastructure improvements in Jacmel, including extending the airport runway, repairing streets, and restoring electricity, ahead of a brief visit by Colombian President Gustavo Petro. The visit, which lasted only four hours, sparked outrage among many Haitians, particularly those in Port-au-Prince, who are grappling with severe gang violence, unprecedented displacement, crumbling infrastructure, and a lack of basic services such as education and healthcare. While officials justified the investment as a way to boost Jacmel’s economy, many criticized it as wasteful and symbolic, benefiting only a select few. Residents in Jacmel expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the improvements, noting that not all had access to the restored electricity. Meanwhile, Haitians living in makeshift shelters and enduring extreme hardships questioned the government’s priorities, stressing the urgent need for security, food, jobs, and basic necessities across the country. Associated Press 

Violence flares in Jamaica after police kill notorious gang leader. Jamaican authorities were forced to impose a curfew, restrict movement, and deploy police and soldiers to maintain order in Spanish Town on Thursday and Friday after violent unrest erupted following the killing of a top gang chief. Police killed Othneil "Thickman" Lobban, a leader of the One Order gang, late on Wednesday, triggering a violent reaction near the capital of Kingston. The killing came in the wake of a government crackdown on gangs after a series of brutal mass shootings. Lobban’s death resulted in gunfire, protests, and the torching of a building. Spanish Town, a hub for the One Order gang, remained largely deserted as schools, businesses, and government offices shut down. The One Order gang, which has been active for over 20 years, is known for extortion, killings, and drug dealings. Jamaica has one of the world’s highest homicide rates, with much of its violence linked to U.S.-sourced illegal firearms. Amnesty International has criticized the high rate of police killings in the country, labeling many as "extrajudicial executions." Lobban’s death has raised concerns about further violence in an already volatile environment. Associated Press The Guardian Jamaica Observer 

EUROPE

The Deep-Sea Battle Over the World’s Data Cables Is Heating Up. The Russian spy ship Yantar, part of an elite Kremlin deep-sea unit, has raised alarm over undersea data cables critical to global communications. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey, addressing recent incursions into British waters, declared to Russian President Vladimir Putin: “We see you, we know what you’re doing, and we will not shy away from robust action." NATO estimates that 99% of the world’s data and $10 trillion in daily transactions rely on these cables, making them prime sabotage targets. Recent incidents, including severed cables in the Baltic Sea linked to Russian-linked vessels, underscore growing risks. NATO and Britain have intensified surveillance, with Healey warning Russia against its “reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe” to destabilize global infrastructure and security. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

Putin is repeating a Soviet-era mistake, Polish foreign minister says. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for "repeating the mistakes of Soviet leadership" by overspending on the military and risking economic ruin. Sikorski noted that Putin had previously warned against such errors, citing Brezhnev-era overspending that contributed to the Soviet Union's collapse. "He was very insistent that this mistake should not be repeated. And he's doing exactly that," Sikorski said. Russia plans to spend 6.3% of its GDP on defense in 2025, its highest level since the Cold War, with defense comprising 32.5% of its federal budget. Sikorski also highlighted Russia’s growing isolation, pointing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO due to its invasion of Ukraine. Economic pressures, including inflation, labor shortages, and a weakening ruble, echo Soviet-era stagnation. Swedish economist Anders Åslund predicted Russia’s financial reserves might be depleted by year’s end. Business Insider

Russian Oil Ships Hunt for New Flags to Hide from Sanctions. Russia’s oil tanker fleet is scrambling to reflag vessels as sanctions from the US and UK pressure its shipping operations. Barbados is removing 46 ships from its registry, 14 of which are also US-sanctioned, while Panama is delisting 68 vessels. These ships often turn to lesser-known registries, like Tanzania and São Tomé and Príncipe, highlighting the sanctions' disruptive impact on Russia’s logistics. Barbados, adhering to UK rules, retains a strict stance despite no direct sanctions. Panama aligned with Western sanctions in late 2024, further constraining Russia’s shipping network since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg

How Poland emerged as a leading defense power. Poland has transformed into a leading European defense power, doubling its armed forces to over 200,000 and boosting its defense budget to $35 billion—4.7% of GDP in 2025, the highest in NATO. Major purchases from South Korea and the U.S., including Apache helicopters and Patriot systems, underscore its strategy to strengthen ties with America and maintain NATO's functionality. Poland's stance on stationing NATO troops in Ukraine remains cautious, influenced by political challenges, bilateral tensions with Ukraine, and its 2025 election. Prime Minister Donald Tusk seeks reforms but faces resistance from a PiS-aligned president, while his coalition remains fragile. The Economist

Germany’s Leading Candidate Calls for Permanent Border Checks. Friedrich Merz, the leading candidate for Germany’s chancellorship, proposed permanent border checks and stricter migration policies following a fatal stabbing allegedly committed by an Afghan asylum seeker. Speaking in Berlin on Thursday, Merz criticized current migration rules as "dysfunctional" and vowed to prioritize national law over EU asylum rules if elected in February. He promised a ban on entry for individuals without valid documents, including those with protection rights. The incident in Aschaffenburg has intensified debates over security and immigration, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressing frustration over repeated violence by asylum seekers seeking protection in Germany. Bloomberg

Denmark Wants to Spend More on Greenland Defense Amid Trump Spat. Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen proposed increasing military spending to over 500 billion kroner ($70 billion) through 2033 to bolster Arctic security amid tensions with the U.S. after Donald Trump expressed interest in acquiring Greenland for national security reasons. Poulsen emphasized the growing importance of the Arctic and North Atlantic in international security and noted ongoing efforts to enhance cooperation with the Trump administration. Denmark has already allocated 200 billion kroner for defense and recently approved a significant investment in Arctic military presence, with additional agreements expected in the coming months to strengthen the region's security infrastructure. Bloomberg

Russian man jailed for 17 years for passing information to US. The Moscow City Court sentenced Dmitry Shatresov to 17 years in prison for high treason, accusing him of passing state secrets to U.S. intelligence. The 40-year-old logistics worker allegedly obtained classified information illegally. Like most treason cases in Russia, his trial was held behind closed doors. Treason prosecutions have surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with 792 people charged with treason or espionage since 2022, according to a Russian lawyers' association. Shatresov's lawyer declined to comment. Reuters

Italy justifies sending home Libyan warlord, says he was “dangerous.”  The Italian interior minister on Thursday announced that Osama Elmasry Njeem, a Libyan man detained under an ICC war crimes warrant for alleged crimes including murder, torture, and rape in Libya, was swiftly repatriated due to his "social dangerousness," after being unexpectedly released. The ICC criticized the decision, as it was not consulted by the Italian government. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani brushed off the ICC's protests, asserting that the Hague-based international court "is not the word of God, it's not the font of all truth." Njeem, a brigadier general in Libya's Judicial Police, was flown to Tripoli after Italy’s appeals court ruled his arrest non-compliant with procedures. Opposition parties condemned the government’s actions, accusing them of prioritizing political considerations over legal obligations and demanding clarification from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The case highlights Rome’s reliance on Libyan security forces to manage migration. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff to focus on tamping Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Donald Trump is expected to put his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in charge of tamping Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Financial Times and Axios reported Thursday.   Asked during an Oval Office event whether Witkoff would take over the Iran portfolio, Trump said Witkoff is "certainly someone I would use," but he stopped short of confirming the decision was a done deal. Asked if he would support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Trump said, “It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step." Witkoff, a real estate investor who played a key role in nailing down the Gaza ceasefire, would be charged with looking for a diplomatic approach that would avoid an outright strike on Iran's nuclear program, as Iran hawks in the U.S. and Israel have urged.  Witkoff will still focus on the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire. Michael DiMino, a former CIA official who will have the point for the Middle East inside the Pentagon, favors restraint in dealing with Iran, as does Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for under-secretary of defense for policy. National security adviser Mike Waltz and secretary of state Marco Rubio lean more hawkish. Witkoff is no dove. Appearing on Fox News two weeks ago, Witkoff said Trump wants a deal with Iran. But he added,"The president will not allow a bomb to be gotten by the Iranians. Not going to happen. We're not going to that place... hopefully, we can solve it diplomatically…The president is all about solving it diplomatically, if that's possible, and if people are going to adhere to their agreements. But, if not, then the alternative is not necessarily a good one." Financial Times Axios

China Is Helping Supply Chemicals for Iran’s Ballistic-Missile Program. China is playing a critical role in supporting Iran’s military programs by supplying key materials and technologies, including sodium perchlorate, which is used in ballistic missile propellants. This assistance has grown as Iran seeks to rebuild after Israeli airstrikes severely damaged its missile production facilities in 2024. Beijing’s support highlights a deepening alignment between China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, aimed at undermining the U.S.-led global order. While China claims to adhere to export controls, experts argue it remains Iran’s primary source for dual-use materials, complicating U.S. efforts to limit Tehran’s missile and military capabilities. This cooperation risks further destabilizing the Middle East as Iran continues to bolster its arsenal and regional militias. Analysts caution that China’s actions not only challenge U.S. policy but may also undermine Beijing’s strategic interests in the region, as they empower actors like the Houthis, who pose threats to other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia. Wall Street Journal

UKMTO says vessels dealing with radio challenges in northern Gulf as Iranian conducts drills. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on Friday warned that vessels in the northern Gulf have received VHF radio challenges, likely linked to an ongoing Iranian military exercise conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The exercise, named Great Prophet 19, includes naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz. In one reported incident, a vessel 86 nautical miles northeast of Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, was approached by a small military craft using a green laser and urged to enter Iranian territorial waters. However, the ship ignored the request and continued to its next destination. The UKMTO advised vessels near Iranian waters to remain cautious as similar incidents may occur during the exercise. Reuters

Israeli security chief says attention turning to West Bank. In the wake of Sunday’s ceasefire in Gaza, Israel has shifted its focus to targeting Palestinian armed groups in the northern West Bank, particularly in and around Jenin. Israeli forces have launched a major military operation to dismantle groups backed by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, whom they accuse of planning attacks and being supported by Iranian influence. The operation has involved roadblocks, demolitions, and warnings for civilians to leave the Jenin refugee camp, though Israeli officials deny issuing formal evacuation orders. The escalation has displaced many residents, with reports surfacing of civilian casualties, including a local businessman shot by Israeli forces. Twelve Palestinians have been killed, including suspected militants. The operation reflects a "shift in strategy" by Israel, aiming to prevent armed groups from re-emerging, but the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain. Many civilians compare the scale of the operation to the recent conflict in Gaza. BBC 

Security hitches, organized gangs in Gaza complicate aid to war-torn enclave. The ceasefire in Gaza allowed a significant increase in aid deliveries, with over 3,800 trucks carrying humanitarian relief entering the territory since the truce began on Sunday. However, aid distribution was briefly disrupted this week by clashes between Hamas and looters near the Kerem Shalom crossing. Despite the influx of aid, Gaza's population remains malnourished, displaced, and in dire need of basic necessities due to extensive war damage. Aid inspections have been expedited, and humanitarian workers now face fewer risks without ongoing airstrikes. Yet, much of Gaza’s infrastructure, including hospitals and water systems, is heavily damaged, complicating relief efforts. Aid groups continue to face challenges, but the increased delivery capacity and cessation of bombings are helping to scale up assistance to the devastated region. Washington Post

Gazans prepare tent camps for families returning north. Palestinians in northern Gaza are preparing for the return of displaced families to their devastated home areas. Tent encampments are being set up to accommodate families expected to return on Saturday, coinciding with a planned exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel. Many returning Palestinians will face ruined homes and dire living conditions after a 15-month Israeli offensive destroyed much of northern Gaza. Hamas announced that the return process would begin after Israeli forces withdraw from the northern coastal road, with people required to walk miles to reach their destinations. Aid, including tents and relief supplies, is being organized, but many residents remain concerned about limited resources like water, firewood, and adequate shelter. Some families in wrecked areas, like Jabalia, are already living in the rubble of their homes under harsh conditions, relying on bonfires for warmth amidst widespread destruction and poor sanitation. Meanwhile, sporadic violence, including an Israeli tank shelling in Rafah, has raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Japan’s Ishiba readying for negotiations with Trump on maintaining American presence in Asia. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is at the helm of a struggling minority government following election losses, has pledged to strengthen regional security and deepen Japan-U.S. ties amid growing concerns over China's assertiveness and North Korea's missile threats. Ishiba plans to visit Washington to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump to ensure a continued U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific and prevent regional destabilization. In a speech on Friday, Ishiba stressed the importance of fostering multilateral partnerships (including with South Korea, the Philippines, and the Quad), and building constructive relations with China to address the region's “most severe and complicated security environment” since World War II. He also highlighted domestic priorities such as defense capabilities, tackling population decline, boosting wages, reducing debt, and improving disaster resilience. Associated Press 

Manila champions U.S. missile deployment for supporting regional security, bolstering readiness. Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Año on Friday told journalists that the U.S. military's Typhon missile launchers, capable of firing long-range missiles like Tomahawks and SM-6s, will remain in the Philippines “for now.” The launchers, recently relocated within the island of Luzon, are part of efforts to enhance the Philippines' military readiness. In a statement, an armed forces spokesperson asserted that the goal of the deployment is also to refine “familiarization and interoperability with advanced weapon systems and support regional security.” China has criticized the deployment, accusing Manila of heightening regional tensions, especially after the launchers were first used during military exercises in April 2024. The Philippines and the U.S. maintain close coordination on the deployment, emphasizing mutual operational considerations. The Typhon system can strike targets in China and Russia, as well as air and sea targets within 200 km, reinforcing the Philippines' defense capabilities. Reuters

Philippines will cooperate with ICC if investigators seeks Interpol arrest warrants over Duterte's drug crackdown. The Philippines will “respond favorably” with Interpol if the International Criminal Court (ICC) requests arrest warrants related to its investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial "war on drugs," according to Executive Secretary Lucas P. Bersamin. The anti-drug campaign, launched in 2016, resulted in thousands of deaths, many of which occurred under suspicious circumstances, prompting an ICC probe into possible crimes against humanity. Duterte and the police deny allegations of systematic executions, claiming suspects were killed in self-defense. Although Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC's founding treaty in 2019 and previously resisted cooperation, the current administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appears open to working with the ICC. Official records show 6,200 suspects were killed in police operations, but activists argue that the actual death toll, including extrajudicial killings, is much higher. Reuters

ICC to seek arrest warrants for two Afghan Taliban leaders for persecuting women and girls. The International Criminal Court (ICC) plans to seek arrest warrants for two senior Taliban leaders, Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani, over crimes against humanity related to the persecution of women and girls in Afghanistan. ICC prosecutor Karim Khan cited abuses such as murder, torture, rape, and enforced disappearances, alleging the Taliban leadership is criminally responsible for gender-based persecution since August 2021. The Taliban's oppressive policies, including banning women from education, work, and public spaces, and enforcing restrictive "morality laws," have left Afghanistan as the only country where women and girls are barred from secondary and higher education. The ICC's investigation has faced challenges, including a lack of cooperation from the Taliban and fear among witnesses. Observers, including Afghan activists, see the move as a significant step toward accountability, even though it may not immediately change the situation. The Taliban government, which remains unrecognized by any foreign power, has yet to respond to the ICC's statement. BBC Reuters International Criminal Court Associated Press 

AFRICA

U.N. cautions Congo's conflict with M23 insurgents could trigger regional war. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday warned that the ongoing M23 conflict in eastern Congo could escalate into a broader regional war, as violence continues to rage. The Tutsi-led M23 rebels have intensified their offensive in Congo's mineral-rich east, capturing strategic towns like Minova and Sake, the latter of which lies just 20 km from the provincial capital of Goma, the regional core of security and humanitarian efforts. This escalation and resulting panic have uprooted thousands of civilians who have fled their homes and refugee camps this week. Some parents have crowded their families into boats and buses or escaped with their children on motorbikes in an effort to avoid encroaching bombs and gunfire. One mother who fled Sake said that her child was maimed by the ceaseless shelling and lost a leg. Another woman who fled to Goma recounted seeing people in Sake being ripped apart by explosions. Goma is home to 2 million people, and they have suffered greatly due to the conflicts. M23 has asserted that the group “is on its way to liberate them, and they must prepare to welcome this liberation.” Congo and the U.N. accuse neighboring Rwanda of supporting the M23 insurgency with troops and weapons, an allegation Rwanda adamantly denies. Guterres called for respect for Congo's sovereignty and demanded an end to external support for armed groups. The UN also condemned the capture of Sake, which poses a heightened threat to Goma, a city briefly overtaken by M23 in 2012. At that time, the seizure resulted in international donors severing aid to Rwanda, though the insurgents now control more territory than ever before. Reuters Associated Press UN News  

Boko Haram fighters in Nigeria’s Borno state kill at least 20. Boko Haram insurgents attacked the Nigerian village of Gadan Gari on Wednesday, murdering at least 20 fishermen. The attackers opened fire on fishermen around 11:00 GMT, and residents reported burying more than 15 victims, with one local confirming the death of his child. The attack is part of a 16-year-long insurgency in northeastern Nigeria led by Boko Haram and ISWAP, which has caused significant human and economic losses, displacement, and a humanitarian crisis. Neither the military nor Borno state officials have commented on the incident. Reuters

 Africa CDC says Trump’s WHO departure jeopardizes the continent. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) on Thursday warned that the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) could severely impact Africa’s health initiatives. Many African countries rely on U.S. funding through the WHO for public health programs, and the reduction in support is expected to hinder disease response and health program delivery. One Africa CDC official urged nations to rethink how they finance public health and explore alternative funding sources, including partnerships with non-African countries. Zimbabwe’s finance minister expressed concerns that the White House’s decision could also lead to cuts in health aid for HIV/AIDS-affected nations. While Africa CDC does not anticipate a significant direct impact, its joint action plan with the U.S. government, developed over the past year, might now be at risk. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump orders formation of crypto working group tasked with drafting regulations, probing idea of national stockpile. U.S. President Donald Trump is fulfilling his pledge to swiftly revise American crypto policy, issuing an executive order creating a cryptocurrency working group to develop new digital asset regulations and explore the establishment of a national cryptocurrency stockpile. The order also protects banking services for crypto companies, bans central bank digital currencies that could compete with existing cryptocurrencies, and reverses costly SEC guidance that hindered crypto adoption. Trump's move, part of his campaign pledge to support crypto innovation, contrasts with former President Joe Biden's regulatory crackdown on the industry. The order has been celebrated by the crypto sector, with experts seeing it as a significant step toward mainstream adoption and clearer regulations. The working group, chaired by venture capitalist David Sacks, will include key government agency leaders and focus on creating a regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. The group will also evaluate a federal digital asset reserve derived from lawfully seized cryptocurrencies. Trump's actions signal a shift in U.S. crypto policy, with Bitcoin reaching record highs amid industry optimism. However, analysts remain divided on whether parts of the initiative, like the national stockpile, will require congressional approval. Reuters Politico Economic Times Axios  

Trump staff bristling at Musk’s scathing response to AI project. Elon Musk's public criticism of President Donald Trump’s $500 billion AI initiative, dubbed "Stargate," has angered Trump’s aides and allies. Musk, who has close ties to the president and significant influence through his social media platform, denounced the project, targeting its key players like OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman and questioning the funding behind it. Trump’s allies accused Musk of taking advantage of his access to the president, with some calling for stricter management of Musk's involvement; one source said Musk “has abused the proximity” to Trump. Despite Musk’s criticism, Trump downplayed the tension, attributing Musk’s objections to personal disputes with people involved in the project; he said Musk just “hates one of the people in the deal.” White House staffers are still engaging with the Tesla CEO on his AI concerns but view his execution as lacking. Musk’s comments sparked internal GOP discussions about his influence and whether a fallout with Trump is imminent. Meanwhile, the tech billionaire continues to advocate for alternative AI investors like Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, escalating tensions within the project’s development. Politico 

LinkedIn sued for allegedly using private messages for AI training. A lawsuit filed in the US accuses LinkedIn of sharing private messages from Premium users with third parties to train AI models. The lawsuit claims LinkedIn introduced a privacy setting in August 2024, automatically opting users into data-sharing for AI training, and later revised its privacy policy to allow such data use. It also alleges LinkedIn tried to conceal these actions by altering its FAQ section. The lawsuit, filed in California, seeks $1,000 per user for alleged violations of federal and state laws, including breach of contract. LinkedIn denies the claims, stating they lack merit, and notes that AI data-sharing was not enabled in the UK, EEA, or Switzerland. The platform has over one billion users globally, with a growing number of Premium subscribers contributing to its $1.7 billion in annual revenue. BBC Reuters The Record TechRadar 

False flag cyberattacks: GamaCopy mimics Kremlin-linked Gamaredon to target Russian industries. An obscure hacking group called GamaCopy has been mimicking the tactics of the Kremlin-linked threat actor Gamaredon to target Russian-speaking victims, according to research by Knownsec. Using phishing documents, 7zSFX file archivers, and UltraVNC software, GamaCopy has launched cyberattacks on Russia’s defense and critical infrastructure sectors. Although similar to Gamaredon, GamaCopy uses Russian-language lures and distinct methods, suggesting it is a false flag operation linked to another state-backed actor, Core Werewolf. Core Werewolf and other groups, such as Sticky Werewolf and Sapphire Werewolf, have also targeted Russian industries in recent campaigns. The Record

China-linked hacker group PlushDaemon attacks East Asian targets with malicious VPN installers. A newly identified Chinese state-sponsored hacker group, PlushDaemon, has been conducting an espionage campaign targeting East Asian users. The group compromised the installer for a South Korean VPN, IPany, in 2023, replacing it with malware that enabled extensive spying, including data collection and audio/video recording. Discovered by cybersecurity firm ESET in May 2024, the attack targeted users in South Korea, Japan, and China, including those in a semiconductor company and a software development firm. PlushDaemon, active since at least 2019, uses tactics like hijacking legitimate updates of Chinese applications and has targeted entities in multiple countries, including the U.S. and New Zealand, making it a significant cyber threat. The Record The Hacker News Hackread  

Musk’s SpaceX to launch 23 Starlink satellites to orbit on Jan 24th. SpaceX is set to launch 23 Starlink internet satellites on Friday from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The Falcon 9 rocket will lift off during a 3.5-hour window starting at 9:07 a.m. EST, with the first stage scheduled to land on the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You in the Pacific Ocean about eight minutes after liftoff. This marks the 23rd launch and landing for this booster, which has previously completed 22 flights, 14 of them for Starlink missions. The upper stage will deploy the satellites into low Earth orbit roughly 64 minutes after launch. This is SpaceX's 11th Falcon 9 mission of 2025 and the seventh Starlink mission of the year. The Starlink constellation, already the largest in the world, now includes over 6,900 operational satellites. Space.com Spaceflight Now 

Rocket Lab to launch more hypersonic test vehicles for DoD. Rocket Lab, a California-based space company, will expand its role in supporting the U.S. Department of Defense's hypersonic technology development under the $1.45 billion MACH-TB 2.0 program. Led by defense contractor Kratos, the initiative aims to enhance hypersonic test flight capabilities. Rocket Lab's HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron), a specialized variant of its Electron launcher, will be used to conduct suborbital test flights. Rocket Lab has already demonstrated success with hypersonic test launches, including a November mission for the DoD. The new MACH-TB 2.0 program builds on previous efforts, increasing the Pentagon's ability to test and advance hypersonic technologies. The program will support hypersonic innovation through high-cadence testing, with Rocket Lab playing a key role in these launches starting this year. Defense officials emphasize the program's importance in accelerating research and developing next-generation hypersonic capabilities. Space.com The Space Report     

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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