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10:00 AM ET, Friday, January 19, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
U.S. launches additional strikes against Yemen’s Houthis.
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian statehood after war.
Russia rejects U.S. proposal to resume arms control talks.
North Korea says it tested underwater nuclear capable drone.
THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian statehood after war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that he has told the U.S. that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any scenario after the war with Hamas. Netanyahu said Israel must have “security control over all territory west of the Jordan.” He argued that Palestinian statehood is incompatible with Israeli sovereignty. The Israeli premier must be “capable of saying no to our friends,” he said, referring to the Biden Administration, which is pushing for a two-state solution. Following Netanyahu’s remarks, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterated the U.S. position, saying there is “no way” to achieve long-term security for Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state. He said other countries in the region are ready to provide Israel with security assurances. He also said that despite the disagreement, U.S. support for Israel “remains ironclad.” Associated Press New York Times Bloomberg Al Jazeera Reuters
Netanyahu says Israel has destroyed two-thirds of Hamas front-line regiments. After the regiments are all gone, the Israeli leader said, “there is the (stage) of clearing the territory (of militants). The first action is usually shorter, the second usually takes longer."Victory will take many more months but we are determined to achieve it," he added. Reuters
Israeli President Herzog says key to peace for Gaza is normalized relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said in Davos yesterday that Saudi Arabia “certainly” would recognize Israel as part of a larger regional peace agreement. “But that can only happen through peace for the Palestinians, through a Palestinian state,” he said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government have staunchly opposed a two-state solution, putting them on a collision course with the Biden administration. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken said that Israel would not know “genuine security” until it agreed to a pathway to a Palestinian state. There is "no way" to solve Israel's long-term security challenges in the region and the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday. The Financial Times reported that several Arab states are working on a plan to end the war in Gaza by tying together a hostage release, ceasefire and “irreversible steps” toward Palestinian statehood. AP Financial Times Bloomberg
EU Parliament passes resolution advocating hostage release, end to Hamas, permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The non-binding measure, passed 312 to 131 with 72 abstentions, is a symbolic gesture meant to express European concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. It called for the creation of a Palestinian state and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, provided all hostages are freed and Hamas completely dismantled. If all that happens, it won’t be because of a symbolic measure from the EU. Associated Press Euronews Reuters
Israeli cabinet minister, former military chief says he stopped Israeli forces launching preemptive strike against Hezbollah. Gadi Eizenkot told Israel's Channel 12 he persuaded Israel’s war cabinet that attacking Lebanese Hezbollah would be a “grave strategic mistake.” Reuters
Israel intensifies West Bank raids. The West Bank has seen nearly daily Israeli raids recently which Israel says are aimed at rooting out increasing militant activity. Early today, Israeli forces ended a two-day raid in Tulkarem that resulted in at least eight Palestinian deaths. The Israeli military said those who were killed were terrorists, but the U.N. said at least two were children. The military also said the operation uncovered explosives, weapons, and a bomb factory. According to the U.N., 357 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the Hamas attack on Israel October 7. Wall Street Journal
Rights group says communications blackouts in Gaza must not be used as ‘weapons of war’. The digital civil rights group Access Now said yesterday that a weeklong telecommunications blackout in Gaza has become a “matter of life and death” and should end immediately. Group policy and advocacy director Marwa Fatafta said Internet shutdowns “must not be used as weapons of war.” He called for a physical and digital ceasefire and the full restoration of telecommunications services in Gaza. Internet shutdowns have slowed the delivery of humanitarian aid and made it difficult to document and share information about what is happening in Gaza. Al Jazeera
Mexico, Chile ask the International Criminal Court to investigate Israel and Hamas for war crimes. In a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) yesterday, Mexico and Chile called for a war crimes investigation of both Israel and Hamas. Mexico’s foreign ministry issued a statement saying the request arises from a growing worry over the escalation of violence, “particularly against civilian targets.” The Palestinian Foreign Ministry welcomed the referral, saying Israel remains undeterred in conducting its “genocidal war.” Last week South Africa filed a similar request with the International Court of Justice. Israel’s leaders dismissed the accusations. Reuters Associated Press
THE RED SEA
Yemen's Houthis say they attacked American ship with naval missiles in Gulf of Aden. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at another U.S.-owned commercial vessel on Thursday. U.S. Central Command said the rebels launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Greek-operated tanker Chem Ranger. The missiles fell in the water and caused no injuries or damage to the ship. It was the third such attack by the Houthis in three days. Bloomberg Reuters Washington Post
U.S. launches additional strikes against Yemen’s Houthis. The U.S. conducted another round of strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen on Thursday morning. Central Command said the latest strikes targeted two Houthi anti-ship missiles prepared to launch into the southern Red Sea. The U.S. strike was the fifth in a week and the second in less than 24 hours, following the U.S. Navy’s strike on 14 Houthi missiles on Wednesday night. President Joe Biden said that U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis will continue though they have yet to stop the group from attacking Red Sea shipping. U.S. officials maintain that the strikes are degrading the Houthis’ abilities to continue attacks. Houthi chief Abdul Mailk al-Houthi said the group is taking “concrete steps” to improve military capabilities as it enters direct confrontation with the U.S., U.K. and Israel. Al-Houthi also said fighting the U.S. will strengthen the Houthis, asserting that the group has always been strengthened by confrontation with enemies. New York Times New York Times Washington Post Reuters Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Al Jazeera
“The sooner we essentially reduce Houthi maritime capability to zero, by taking out their boats, ship, repair, fuel, missile sites, C2, etc, the sooner this will be over. If we cannot deter them, we must destroy their capability” Cipher Brief Exper Admiral (Ret) James Stavridis X
Royal Caribbean, MSC cancel cruises due to Red Sea attacks. Royal Caribbean said Thursday it has canceled two voyages that had been scheduled over the next month and adjusted the itinerary of another because of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. The announcement came a day after the Swiss-Italian operator MSC Cruises said it canceled three trips scheduled for April. Although thousands of passengers are affected by the cancellations, CEO Todd Elliott of the Florida-based travel agency Cruise Vacation Outlet said they represent only a small part of the companies’ overall fleet worldwide. Reuters
China says it is monitoring Red Sea developments, will support foreign trade enterprises. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it is closely watching developments in the Red Sea and that Beijing will provide support to foreign trade enterprises. The ministry added that it hopes all parties restore security of shipping lanes in the area to ensure normal trade flows. Reuters
Red Sea shipping attacks pressure China's exporters as delays, costs mount. The disruption of shipping in the Red Sea has exposed the vulnerability of China’s economy, which is heavily dependent on exports. Without referring to the Red Sea specifically, Chinese Premier Li Qiang told the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that global supply chains need to be kept “stable and smooth.” Some companies have said they are relying on factories in other countries closer to home, an approach known as “near-shoring,” adding to recent efforts already undertaken by Western countries to reduce dependence on China. The risk for China is that more countries will adopt that approach. Reuters
Red Sea diversions to boost bunker demands in Africa, Mediterranean. Rerouting of commercial vessels away from the Red Sea is changing refueling patterns by increasing demand for bunker fuel at ports in Africa and the Western Mediterranean. The changes are set to strain port infrastructure and create huge congestion in these places. Ships are also set to refuel more at Singapore and Rotterdam, the two busiest bunkering ports where fuel is competitively priced. Reuters
Red Sea disruption impacts European economy. Europe is facing economic troubles from the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Diversions away from the waterway have increased shipping costs and caused delays for key shipments. Economists say that if the disruption continues, Europe faces risks of higher inflation and energy prices. However, analysts note that the Red Sea issue is not as serious as previous shocks like the pandemic since suppliers have more alternatives and businesses have better inventories. Reuters Wall Street Journal
“Allow a terrorist organization, or a single pariah nation like Iran, to simply close the Suez Canal? That is essentially what we are doing by not responding more forcefully to Houthi attacks on global shipping.” Cipher Brief Expert Admiral (Ret) James Stavridis X
Suez Canal diversions further pressure Egypt's distressed economy. The diversion of shipping away from the Suez Canal due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea has had a significant impact on Egypt’s economy. The Suez Canal Authority says that canal revenue has fallen by 40% in the first 11 days of January. This impact on trade is compounding ongoing issues in Egypt’s economy. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukrainian drone attack causes fire at western Russian oil facility. Russian officials said four oil tanks at a storage facility in the town of Klintsy in Russia’s western Bryansk region caught fire on Friday after the military downed a Ukrainian drone in the area. Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said the drone dropped munitions on the oil depot when it was brought down by radio-electronic means. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency did not confirm or deny Kyiv was behind the attack, saying only that such incidents “regularly occur” at Russian military facilities and that the incident is likely to complicate logistics for Russian troops. The Bryansk attack came after Ukraine reportedly used a domestically-produced drone to target an oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries Alexander Kamishyn said the attack marked a "new stage of work in this region." Ukraine's efforts to strike back at targets deep inside Russia demonstrate its attempt to narrow the gap in strike capabilities with Russia, which has conducted long-range aerial bombardments on Ukraine. Reuters Reuters
Ukraine working to restore air travel. Ukraine is working with partners to swiftly restore air travel, according to Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Rostyslav Shurma. Air travel in Ukraine has been suspended since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Shurma did not provide a specific timeline on the restoration process, but said Ukraine has an “internal roadmap and schedule,” with approval from IATA and FAA being crucial. The government is particularly focused on reopening Boryspil International Airport near Kyiv or an airport in western Ukraine. Ukraine is reportedly working with Israel on the matter, drawing on their air defense expertise. Kyiv Independent
US warns of Russian efforts to turn public opinion against Ukraine in upcoming European elections. Russia intends to use "information operations" to sway public opinion against Ukraine in the lead-up to key European elections in 2024, according to Jamie Rubin, the special envoy for the U.S. State Department's Global Engagement Center (GEC). Russia's history of using disinformation in elections, such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit vote, has raised concerns about its actions in upcoming elections across Europe, including Austria, the U.K., and the European Parliament elections. Rubin did not specify particular countries but noted that Russia aims to change opinion on Ukraine through information campaigns in Europe during the election season. Additionally, Russia has been accused of funding disinformation campaigns in Latin America and the Middle East to sow division and undermine support for Ukraine. Kyiv Independent
European lawmakers in Washington to push for Ukraine aid are leaving empty-handed and massively disappointed. “When it comes to the Democrats, our message has been ‘use your muscle, stop hunkering down and letting the Republicans set your agenda on foreign policy on the Hill,’” Alicia Kearns, chair of the U.K. Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of Commons, said in an interview with Politico. “Biden is letting it be set by the opposition when they are not even in charge.” (Fact check: actually they are, in the GOP-controlled House, but with Gaza and Ukraine burning, there’s no time to brush up on bicameral basics.) If Kyiv falls, said Žygimantas Pavilionis, from the Lithuanian parliament, “Who is next, Balkans, Taiwan, Korea, the Baltics … it takes years to wake up Washington, so please guys wake up.” A White House official told Politico, “we share their frustration with congressional inaction on Ukraine.” adding that it is “a top priority to secure more security assistance for Ukraine.” Politico
EU parliament steps up political pressure on Hungary ahead of Ukraine aid summit. The European Parliament voted on Thursday in favor of a resolution condemning Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for undermining EU's founding values, with 345 in favor and 104 against. Orban's veto of additional EU financial aid to Ukraine was also criticized. The resolution supports progressing in the Article 7 rule-of-law enforcement procedure, potentially leading to Hungary's voting rights suspension in the EU. While the resolution is not legally binding, it increases political pressure on Orban, with a focus on EU leaders' summit on Feb. 1 to discuss further assistance for Ukraine. Reuters
EU discusses options for granting aid to Ukraine, with or without Hungary. European Union leaders are set to meet on February 1 to discuss granting Ukraine new financial aid in its fight against Russia's invasion. Last month, Hungary vetoed a proposal to provide 50 billion euros in aid through the EU budget until 2027. Options include reaching a deal among all 27 EU nations within the joint budget, which Hungary opposes due to concerns about long-term financial commitments. Another option is to create a special financial vehicle outside the EU budget, favored by Hungary but with less predictability. Additionally, the 26 other EU countries are considering moving forward without Hungary's support. The outcome may impact EU funds for Hungary and its ongoing feud with the EU over the rule of law. Reuters
Ukraine buys six French Caesar howitzers, France supplying missiles. Ukraine bought six Caesar howitzers from France for between 3 million and 4 million euros each, marking Kyiv’s first purchase of French-made weapons since Russia’s invasion. Ukraine has 49 of the howitzers donated by France and Denmark. France will spend 50 million euros from a fund for Ukraine to buy another 12 howitzers to send to Ukraine and is seeking 280 million euros from other allies to pay for 60 more Caesars. Paris will also send 50 precision-guided A2SM missiles, adapted for Soviet-type planes, per month to Ukraine from January. France will also start making 3,000 155mm shells a month, up from just 2,000 in 2023, as well as other hardware amid increased military demand. Reuters Associated Press
France denies Russia's claims that it has mercenaries in Ukraine. France denied Russia's claim that French mercenaries were in Ukraine, responding to Russia's statement that it had killed French mercenaries in Kharkiv. France stated it provides military support to Ukraine in line with international law but has no mercenaries in Ukraine or elsewhere, unlike some others. Russia's claim lacked evidence, as is typical, and couldn't be verified. Reuters France 24
U.S. sanctions UAE-based shipping company for Russian oil price cap violations. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned UAE-based shipping company Hennesea Shipping Co Ltd for violating the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude oil exports. The Treasury said one of the company’s 18 tankers transported Russian-origin crude oil above the price cap while using a U.S.-based maritime service provider. The action marks the first enforcement of the price cap this year. U.S. Department of the Treasury Reuters Wall Street Journal
Ukraine FM seeks to organize talk between Zelensky, Xi. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Bloomberg that he is working to set up a call between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders have spoken only once since Russia’s invasion in a phone call last April. Establishing a direct channel between Zelensky and Xi is part of efforts to build support for Ukraine’s Global Peace Summit. Ukraine has called on Beijing to use its influence over Russia to help end the war. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent
Australia formally rejects Ukraine's request for helicopters. The Australian federal government has declined Ukraine's request to access Australia's retired Taipan helicopters. The 45 Taipan MRH-90 aircraft were retired following a crash in Queensland that killed four Defence personnel during a training exercise. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy stated that none of the Taipans are currently in flying condition and that bringing them up to that state would require significant investment. The decision to disassemble and sell spare parts for the aircraft was made after there was "zero interest" from potential buyers. The government remains one of the largest non-NATO contributors to Ukraine's resistance, having provided significant military assistance. ABC Kyiv Independent
Ukraine begins reconstruction efforts, rebuilding cities and towns despite war. Ukraine is undertaking a pilot program to rebuild six towns with state funds, aiming to develop the skills and experience needed for a broader reconstruction effort. These towns were badly damaged during fighting with Russian forces nearly two years ago. The reconstruction is viewed as crucial to prevent millions of Ukrainians from permanently relocating to Europe. However, the ongoing war and resource constraints pose challenges. Some officials argue for prioritizing military needs over discretionary projects like reviving town squares, while others stress the importance of a comprehensive government strategy for recovery and a war-adapted economy. The World Bank estimates that rebuilding Ukraine will cost over $400 billion over the next decade. Reuters
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkey says talks under way on UN-brokered grain deal. Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey says that negotiations are ongoing regarding a UN-brokered grain export initiative that was suspended in the summer of 2023. The initiative aimed to address a global food crisis exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia had withdrawn from the agreement in July 2023, citing unmet terms. While the details of the negotiations weren't provided, Ukraine has been using its own shipping corridor along the Black Sea coast, near Romania and Bulgaria, to export food since Russia's withdrawal from the UN-brokered deal. Reuters
Explainer: How the West might use Russia's frozen reserves. Western officials are considering various options for dealing with frozen Russian financial assets, estimated at $300-350 billion, to support Ukraine. These options include confiscation under the doctrine of "countermeasures," which raises concerns about legal precedent and open up a “pandora’s box” of expected legal challenges from Moscow. Another idea involves ringfencing, or separating tax revenue from maturing assets held in European banks, potentially yielding about 15 billion euros for Ukraine between 2023 and 2027, although that method also faces opposition from those who say it could lead to financial instability with other international deposits currently held in Europe. "Reparation bonds" are also proposed, where Ukraine sells securities that pay out if it receives reparations from Russia, with interest payments rolling up. However, this approach depends on willingness from the US, EU governments, and allies to buy the securities. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
Sentinel ICBM program breaks budget, triggers Pentagon review. The Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program being developed by Northrop Grumman Corp is projected to cost over $131 billion, or 37% more than its $95.8 billion cost estimate, and take at least two years longer to complete than planned. The Sentinel program will replace the Minuteman III ICBMs. The Covid-19 pandemic, inflation, and ground elements of Sentinel — such as larger silos and new communications infrastructure — have contributed to cost overruns. The Pentagon has notified Congress of the cost increases on the program, under the Nunn-McCurdy Act which requires the Pentagon to inform lawmakers about a program cost or schedule overrun of over 15 percent. The Nunn-McCurdy review is ongoing and is set to lead to program restructuring. Despite the challenges, Sentinel supporters say it is necessary as part of efforts to modernize the nuclear deterrent. Reuters Air and Space Forces Magazine
House committee questions DOD’s Indo-Pacific readiness following closure of Hawaii based fuel depot. The U.S. congressional committee on China has expressed concerns over a Pentagon plan to redistribute fuel from Hawaii's Red Hill underground storage facility to locations across the Indo-Pacific theater. The committee expressed skepticism of the plan and warned that the U.S. military risks being unprepared for a possible conflict with China. The Pentagon reportedly began draining the 1940’s era Red Hill facility after a leak, with the fuel to be transported to existing support sites. The permanent closure of the Red Hill facility is expected to take several years. The committee's chair, Mike Gallagher, questioned whether a long-term solution to replace the capacity of Red Hill has been developed and emphasized the need for a robust logistics network. Reuters
Lockheed to test Patriot and Aegis integration in live-fire test. Lockheed Martin is set to test the integration of the U.S. Army's Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) with the U.S. Navy's Aegis Combat System this spring. Lockheed will have spent around $100 million on the latest Patriot variant to address the Navy’s capability and capacity gaps against advanced threats at sea. Following the live-fire test to demonstrate integration with the Aegis combat system, further tests may follow leading to operational capability on Navy ships. Defense News
US, Mexico holding cabinet-level immigration talks. U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington today to discuss ways to stem illegal immigration. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, White House homeland security adviser Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall and Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alicia Bárcena will participate in the talks. Officials say the talks are aimed at dialogue on the issue and are not expected to yield major announcements. Mexico is reportedly seeking U.S. support on root causes driving regional migration while Washington wants Mexico’s help on curbing migrant flows. Bloomberg NBC News
Mexican soldiers find drone bomb factory. Mexican troops and police found a small factory used to make bombs usually dropped by drones, as well as grenade launchers designed to be attached to assault rifles and fake Mexican military uniforms. Prosecutors said the factory was one of two found in the town of La Huacana in the western state of Michoacan. The CNJG cartel (for Cartel de Jalisco – Nueva Generacion), one of Mexico’s and the world’s most feared organized crime groups, and local gangs have plagued Michoacan for years and often use bomb-dropping drones and homemade weapons. Associated Press
ABB's China operations face U.S. Congressional scrutiny over security concerns. Swiss engineering group ABB's operations in China are under scrutiny from two U.S. Congress committees investigating security threats. The committees sent a letter to ABB inviting executives to public hearings to address concerns about the company's relationship with a Chinese state-owned firm, particularly regarding the installation of ABB equipment by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (ZPMC) onto U.S.-bound ship-to-shore cranes. The committees seek clarification on potential cybersecurity risks, foreign intelligence threats, and supply chain vulnerabilities at U.S. seaports. Reuters
Chinese mega port in Peru to open later this year. A new Chinese mega port in the Peruvian town of Chancay is opening later this year. The $3.5 billion deep water port, majority-owned by Chinese state-owned firm Cosco Shipping, will be the first controlled by China in South America, demonstrating Beijing’s growing influence in the region. It will be able to accommodate the largest cargo ships and provide them with direct access to Asia. China and Peru hope the port will facilitate regional trade, especially exports of Peruvian copper and soy from western Brazil. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
North Korea says it tested underwater nuclear drone. North Korea conducted a test of its “Haeil-5-23” underwater nuclear weapons system in protest of joint military drills between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, according to North Korean state media. North Korea reportedly tested the nuclear-capable underwater attack drone in waters off its eastern coast as part of efforts to deter “hostile” military activities of the U.S. and its allies. The drone system was first reportedly tested in March 2023 and is designed for sneak attacks in enemy waters against naval strike groups and major operational ports. The report on the test came as nuclear envoys of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan met in Seoul to condemn North Korea’s arms trade with Russia and hostile rhetoric. Reuters Washington Post CBS News Associated Press Bloomberg
North Korea threat could ‘drastically’ change with increased Russia cooperation. The security threat posed by North Korea could “drastically change” over the next decade due to Pyongyang’s increased cooperation with Russia, according to the White House’s senior director for arms control Pranay Vaddi. He noted that “unprecedented” cooperation between North Korea and Russia could potentially help North Korea develop its military capabilities, increasing the importance of combined “extended deterrence” between the U.S., South Korea and Japan. His warning came as North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui concluded a visit to Russia to discuss “strategic and tactical cooperation.” Reuters Reuters
China lab simulates attack on U.S. carrier group with space-based electromagnetic weapons. Chinese scientists at a research lab in Chengdu conducted a computer-simulated attack to assess how China's space-based electromagnetic weapon system could be used to strike a U.S. aircraft carrier group. In the simulation, Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles, launched from a distance of 1,200km, went undetected by U.S. warships' radars due to space-based electronic warfare satellites suppressing the radars in a "top-down" manner. The researchers suggested that a low-orbit satellite constellation could effectively support global strikes, with two or three satellites being sufficient for an aircraft carrier group. The simulation demonstrated the potential effectiveness of space-based electronic warfare in outer space. South China Morning Post
China’s navy begins open water trials for next-generation frigate. China has begun open water trials for its new-model frigate Type 054B. Photos on Chinese social media show the first ship of the new frigate type, which was reportedly launched five months ago, sailing on the Huangpu River near Shanghai. The Type 054B is reportedly bigger and has improved stealth capabilities compared to its predecessor Type 054A, though it does not have a significant increase in its weaponry systems. The Type 054B is expected to play a greater role in anti-submarine operations, with a larger hangar for two Z-20 anti-submarine helicopters. Two Type 054B frigates are currently under construction. South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s new envoy to U.S. vows stability in China relations. Taiwan's top diplomat in Washington, Alexander Tah-Ray Yui, assures that President-elect Lai Ching-te plans to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and avoid worsening relations with Beijing. Yui emphasizes Lai's willingness to engage with Beijing while strengthening unofficial ties with Washington for regional stability. Yui also noted Taiwan's commitment to safeguarding itself by increasing defense measures, such as through extending mandatory military service. Associated Press
India could ease China investment curbs if border remains peaceful. India may consider easing its heightened scrutiny of Chinese investments if border tensions between the two countries remain peaceful, according to Rajesh Kumar Singh, a senior Indian industrial policy official. The curbs on Chinese investments were implemented in 2020, following a clash between Chinese and Indian troops on their disputed border. The easing of border tensions could lead to improved investment ties, potentially benefiting planned projects that were disrupted by the restrictions, including those involving Chinese automakers. Reuters
Japan signs deal to buy 400 Tomahawk missiles from U.S. Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced on Thursday that it approved a deal to buy up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S. as part of its ongoing defense buildup. The U.S. approved a $2.35 billion sale of Tomahawks to Japan in November, and Tokyo decided in December to accelerate the deployment of some Tomahawks and Japanese-made Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles starting in fiscal 2025 to address increasing regional security challenges from China and North Korea. Associated Press Defense News USNI News
U.S., wants Japan to maintain forward deployed naval vessels to bolster Indo-Pacom presence. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said on Friday that the U.S. and Japan are considering using Japanese shipyards to overhaul U.S. navy warships deployed in East Asia. Doing refits in Japan could help keep more U.S. ships battle-ready in the region amid tensions with China, instead of sending vessels back across the Pacific to U.S. shipyards struggling with a backlog of maintenance contracts due to limited capacity. Reuters
Europe
Russia rejects U.S. proposal to resume arms control talks. Russia rejected a U.S. proposal to restart arms control talks for now due to Washington’s support for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that despite the U.S. proposing to separate the two issues, Russia cannot engage on arms control while the U.S. undermines its interests by backing Kyiv, namely by pushing Ukraine to use long-range strike capabilities to hit targets within Russia, though he provided no evidence for this claim. However, Lavrov did not rule out future arms control talks. U.S. officials said the rejection casts doubt on whether Russia is open to extending, replacing or returning to compliance with the New START strategic nuclear weapon treaty, which expires in February 2026. Wall Street Journal Reuters Bloomberg
NATO to launch the biggest war games in decades. NATO is launching its biggest military exercises since the Cold War next week. NATO said around 90,000 troops will join the exercise, dubbed “Steadfast Defender 2024”, backed by over 50 naval vessels, more than 80 military aircraft and drones, and at least 1,100 combat vehicles. The exercises will run through May and aim to demonstrate that the alliance can conduct and sustain multi-domain operations across all of its territory in a “simulated emerging conflict scenario with a near-peer adversary,” referring to Russia. Sweden, a prospective NATO member, will take part in the drills. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post Al Jazeera
German defense minister warns Putin could attack NATO in 5 to 8 years. Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could potentially attack a NATO country within the next five to eight years. The increased belligerence from Russia, particularly against eastern NATO members including the Baltic countries and Poland, as well as neutral Moldova, has raised concerns among European defense officials. Pistorius urges preparation for potential military threats, emphasizing the need for military, social, and civil defense readiness. Politico
British parliamentary committee raises concerns over military’s management of equipment. The UK's Public Accounts Committee has raised concerns about the British Defence Ministry's management of military stocks of spares and supplies. The committee identified issues like outdated systems, poor cataloged data quality, and fragmented inventory management. The committee highlighted that some inventory management systems used by the British military are nearly 40 years old, as well as specific issues with the Royal Navy’s medical supplies due to supply chain outsourcing. The committee emphasized the need to improve supply systems to ensure timely availability of equipment to military personnel. Defense News
U.S. Ambassador to Russia meets with detained WSJ reporter. U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy met with Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who remains detained at a prison in Moscow on espionage charges that he, the Journal and Washington deny. Tracy said the U.S. continues to call for his immediate release. Wall Street Journal
Middle East
Pakistan calls for trust building with Iran after tit-for-tat airstrikes. Pakistan said it is willing to work with Iran on “all issues” in a call between their foreign ministers on Friday after tit-for-tat drone and missile strikes against militants in each other’s countries. Pakistan’s foreign office said Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani told his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, that both sides need to act with “mutual trust and cooperation” and work more closely together on “security issues.” Both Tehran and Islamabad have said they do not want to escalate tensions. The call came as Pakistan’s National Security Committee, with all military service chiefs and Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar in attendance, met for a security review following the strikes. Reuters
Biden says Iran-Pakistan clash shows Iran is not well-liked in region. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Pakistan this week show that Tehran is “not particularly well liked in the region.” The U.S. has said it is monitoring the situation and does not want an escalation in the region. Pakistan launched air strikes against militants in Iran, in retaliation for an Iranian strike on other militants in Pakistan. Reuters
Pakistan’s Air Force says it has a hypersonic-capable missile. The Pakistan Air Force announced that it has a hypersonic missile capability as part of a broader modernization effort to counter evolving threats. The service said the capability aims to create a potent force and rebalance power dynamics in the region. While details about the hypersonic missile were not provided, it is speculated to be the CM-400AKG, acquired five years ago, reportedly capable of Mach 5-plus speeds. The Air Force has undertaken various modernization initiatives, including the acquisition of J-10C fighter jets, unmanned aerial systems, electronic warfare platforms, and integrated air defense systems. Defense News
Iran conducts air defense drills amid regional tensions. Iran said on Friday that it successfully conducted two-day air defense drills that stretched from the country’s southwestern to southeastern coasts. An Iranian army spokesman said the drills tested a new air defense method that uses drones to intercept hostile targets. The army’s air force and navy, the aerospace force and the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps participated in the drills, which came amid regional tensions from tit-for-tat airstrikes against militants between Iran and Pakistan. Reuters
ANALYSIS — Iran-Pakistan flare-up rooted in restive borderlands, not Mideast strife. Analysts say Iran's recent strike against militants in Pakistan was motivated by pressure following a bombing in Iran on January 3 claimed by the Islamic State. The Iranian strike targeted the Jaish al-Adl group, which Tehran accuses of having links to Islamic State. Experts suggest that the move was aimed at reinforcing Iran's internal security and demonstrating its capabilities. Iran notably did not link the attack to the Gaza war or militant groups acting against Israel. While Pakistan responded with retaliatory strikes against militants in Iranian territory, both sides have said they do not seek further escalation. Reuters Wall Street Journal
ANALYSIS — Iran’s strikes warn Israel, show regional influence, and showcase weapons. Iran's recent missile strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan showcase its military advances as part of efforts to emphasize both its assertiveness in the region and its potential as an arms supplier. Analysts say the strikes are a warning to Israel as they show Iran is not opposed to direct confrontation. Iran also notably used missiles that could have reached Tel Aviv for the strikes. The missiles — Kheibar Shekan precision-guided missiles — have drawn attention for their range, accuracy, and maneuverability. Use of the missile in the strikes, and by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, demonstrates its application in conflict and underscores Tehran’s influence across the region. New York Times Bloomberg
Armed drone downed near base with U.S. forces in northern Iraq. Air defenses downed an armed drone over Erbil airport in northern Iraq on Thursday, according to Iraqi Kurdistan’s counterterrorism service. Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region’s security agency said the drone was fired by “outlaw militia” against the airport, which hosts U.S. and other international forces. Reuters
Saudi Arabia reportedly still considering joining BRICS. Sources say that Saudi Arabia is still considering an invitation to join BRICS. Riyadh was asked to join starting on January 1, but the sources said this was not a formal deadline for a decision. They added that the “process” on a decision is ongoing, with consideration of the fact that bloc members China and India are the kingdom’s biggest trading partners. Saudi Arabia’s economy minister, Faisal Alibrahim, later confirmed that Riyadh is still working on making a decision. Reuters
Africa
Russia in talks to open military base in Central African Republic. Russia is reportedly in talks with the Central African Republic (CAR) to open a military base in the country to further increase its influence in the region. An advisor to the president of the CAR confirmed to Russian state media that the CAR has already provided land in Berengo, around 50 miles west from the capital Bangui, for the base and that existing infrastructure could support the deployment of 10,000 Russian troops to the country. The Institute for the Study of War says the size of the potential Russian contingent and its date of arrival have yet to be finalized. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
Blinken to visit West Africa to discuss security challenges. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Angola next week to discuss trade, climate, infrastructure, health, and security issues. His visit will come amid rising Russian influence in coup-hit West Africa. Reuters Bloomberg Associated Press
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Federal agencies release cybersecurity guidance for water sector. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), FBI, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a cybersecurity guide for the water and sanitation sector. Released after criticism from the Office of the Inspector General about cybersecurity collaboration with the industry, the guide outlines best practices for cyber incident response, roles of federal agencies, and more. The water industry faces continuous cyber threats, and the guide aims to enhance preparedness, detection, and response. This initiative follows earlier setbacks in implementing EPA cybersecurity regulations and highlights the ongoing need for collaboration against cybersecurity threats in the sector. The Record
Japan launches historic 'moon sniper' landing mission. Japan’s robotic “Moon Sniper” explorer is set to land on the moon on Friday morning. Japan seeks to become the fifth country to safely land a spacecraft on the lunar surface with the uncrewed Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) mission. Japan has faced several setbacks in its space endeavors in recent months and hopes to succeed with this lunar mission amid the new global space race. Reuters Barron's CNN
European commercial astronaut mission, including first Turkish astronaut, launches to ISS. Turkey’s first astronaut and three astronauts representing Europe launched on a rocket to the International Space Station (ISS) on Thursday. A Falcon 9 rocket launched the crew on a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule in a commercially arranged mission from Texas startup Axiom Space. The crew is set to reach the ISS on Saturday morning. The astronauts will spend roughly two weeks aboard the ISS to conduct scientific experiments on impacts of spaceflight on human health. The mission also reflects how a growing number of countries are entering Earth orbit. Reuters CNN Deutsche Welle
U.S. company’s moon lander destroyed in Earth’s atmosphere. Astrobotic Technology of Pittsburgh announced that its Peregrine moon lander burned up in the Earth's atmosphere on Thursday afternoon. The spacecraft was launched on January 8 to land on the surface of the moon. Its propulsion system suffered a major malfunction after launch. The leaking of propellant made the planned moon landing impossible, and its altered course from the leak pushed it back to Earth. France 24 New York Times
China finds million-tonne lithium deposit. China’s Ministry of Natural Resources said it has found a huge 1 million tonne reserve of lithium in Yajiang county, Sichuan province. The discovery comes as China seeks to develop domestic resources to strengthen energy and resource security amid a global race for key resources. The lithium deposit increases China’s supply of the resource for lithium batteries, which are critical to mass-market electric vehicles. China has around 7 percent of the world’s identified lithium resources, but refines around half of the world’s lithium, making it reliant on imports of the material. South China Morning Post
Chinese startup claims to develop nuclear-powered battery that can last 50 years. Chinese start-up Betavolt Technology has developed a nuclear-powered battery, the BV100, with a claimed lifespan of 50 years and the ability to operate without recharging. The prototype battery, smaller than a coin, utilizes nuclear isotopes to harness energy and employs semiconductors for energy conversion. The battery uses nickel-63, which has a half-life exceeding 100 years. Its energy conversion efficiency is currently at 8.8%, with potential improvements using higher purity nickel-63 radiation sources. The BV100 is meant to perform well under extreme conditions, with resistance to punctures and gunfire, and is designed for various applications, including for smartphones, drones, military uses, and deep-sea monitoring devices. Betavolt plans to mass-produce the battery by the end of the year. Despite its potential, there are concerns including nuclear safety, radiation protection, and recycling issues associated with the long lifespan of nuclear batteries. Betavolt plans to recycle each BV100 battery after selling the product. Other companies, such as CityLabs in the United States, have been developing betavoltaic batteries using tritium isotopes. Tritium is considered safer than nickel-63 since it emits weaker radiation. South China Morning Post
Cyberattack on Ukraine’s largest telecom provider will cost it about $100 million. VEON, the Dutch telecom operator and parent company of Ukrainian operator Kyivstar, reported a revenue loss of $95 million due to a major cyberattack by a Russian hacker group in December. The loss resulted from the costs of restoring services, replacing equipment, and compensating consultants and partners. The cyberattack targeted Kyivstar and one of Ukraine's largest banks, causing internet and network outages across the country. The Russian hacker group Solntsepek, linked to Russia's military intelligence agency, claimed responsibility for the attack. Russia has faced accusations of supporting cybercrime groups in attacks against its rivals and has deployed cyber capabilities against Ukraine in the past. The Record Kyiv Independent
Google warns Russian state hackers conducting malware attacks across Europe. Russian state hackers from Center 18, a unit within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), are reportedly increasing attempts to deploy malware on devices in NATO countries and Ukraine. Google's Threat Analysis Group (TAG) says that the hackers, known as COLDRIVER, are targeting high-profile individuals in NGOs, former intelligence and military officials, and NATO governments. COLDRIVER conducts social engineering attacks involving PDF files to create a backdoor, tracked as SPICA, to access victims’ devices. Google has taken steps to disrupt the hacking campaign, including adding domains and hashes to blocklists and alerting targeted users. The Record
The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Elaine Shannon, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.
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