Report for Friday, January 17, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Friday, January 17, 2025

U.S. Reveals Once-Secret Support for Ukraine’s Drone Industry

Russia and Iran’s new treaty will raise the stakes for Trump’s administration

Netanyahu says Israel will approve Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal.

Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say

Chinese hackers breached Yellen's computer in U.S. Treasury cyberattack.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How a Gaza Deal Could Change the Middle East.   Experts interviewed by The Cipher Brief suggested that the ceasefire/hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, if implemented successfully, could have positive ripple effects for the broader Middle East – greater security for Israel, less violence in the occupied West Bank, an Israeli-Saudi rapprochement and even a new agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. We hear why, from former Centcom Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie, former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Gary Grappo, and Dr. Emile Nakhleh, a founding director of the CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program. The Cipher Brief   

A Look at Biden’s Last-Minute Cuba Deal.  President Joe Biden wants to remove Cuba’s pariah status as a state sponsor of terrorism, ease some financial sanctions on Cuba and suspende a provision in a law that allows Cuban Americans to seek compensation for confiscated property.  The Cuban government agreed to “gradually” release 533 political prisoners and others deemed unjustly detained, a deal reportedly brokered by the Catholic Church. Worth it? We talked with Ryan C. Berg, Director of The Americas program at The Center for Strategic and International Studies, who brings an expert, and skeptical, view. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump’s Treasury pick says US should boost sanctions on Russian oil to end war in Ukraine. Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, called for intensified sanctions on Russian oil to pressure Moscow into negotiating an end to the war with Ukraine. “As part of [Trump’s] strategy to end the Ukraine war, I will be 100 percent on board for taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors, to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table,” Bessent told senators. Speaking to the Senate Finance Committee, Bessent criticized current U.S. measures as insufficient, claiming the Biden administration avoided tougher actions to prevent rising oil prices during an election year. He committed to supporting “sanctions on Russian oil majors” as a core element of Trump’s strategy to resolve the war. Financial Times

U.S. Reveals Once-Secret Support for Ukraine’s Drone Industry. The U.S. has revealed its extensive support for Ukraine's drone industry, a vital part of Kyiv’s defense against Russia. Since Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, the Biden administration has invested billions, including $1.5 billion last September, to enhance Ukraine's drone production capabilities. These funds have supported manufacturers, supplied components, and fostered ties between Ukrainian and American tech firms. U.S. officials credit these efforts with transforming Ukraine’s drone technology, enabling significant impacts like damaging a quarter of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and slowing advances in eastern Ukraine. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday emphasized drones' growing centrality in modern warfare, noting lessons learned for the U.S. defense sector. New York Times

The CIA’s deep partnership with Ukrainian intelligence. ABC News reports on the clandestine collaboration between the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence agencies, emphasizing its critical role in empowering Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. This deep partnership has driven the sharing of crucial intelligence, enabling Ukraine to effectively anticipate and counter Russian military strategies. The cooperation underscores the United States' unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and security amidst ongoing conflicts. Reevell highlights that this alliance has enhanced Ukraine's immediate defense capabilities and bolstered long-term strategic planning against potential threats. ABC News

Germany’s Baerbock hammers own government for faltering on Ukraine aid. In an interview with Politico, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized her government’s lack of decisiveness on Ukraine aid, exposing rifts within the interim cabinet during a heated election campaign. “Germany as a whole isn’t currently seen as a driving force for peace policy in Europe, and honestly, that pains me,” she said, blaming politicians for prioritizing election gains over Europe’s security. Baerbock supported a €3 billion aid package for Ukraine, which has been delayed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s insistence that it be financed through new borrowing. This stance has stalled agreement among fiscally conservative parties, raising concerns about Germany’s reliability. “That trust must not be damaged again by hesitation, which could make other countries worry that Germany won’t stand by them,” she warned. She also criticized former governments, particularly the Christian Democratic Union under Angela Merkel, for supporting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing it enabled Kremlin aggression. “Nord Stream 2 was never purely an economic project,” Baerbock said, linking it to recent suspected Russian sabotage of undersea cables. On defense, she called for Germany to consistently invest over 2% of GDP, potentially reaching 3% during crises, emphasizing the importance of European security in light of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for higher NATO spending. Politico EU Financial Times

Trump the savior? Anxious Ukrainians question the president's power to end war. Many Ukrainians remain skeptical of Donald Trump’s promise to swiftly end Russia’s war on Ukraine after taking office. “Our fate is in our own hands,” said Kyiv resident Marharyta Deputat, echoing widespread doubt. Hanna Horbachova, a bakery owner displaced twice by war, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not stop without firm deterrence. Trump’s advisers concede peace talks may take months, while Ukrainian leaders insist NATO membership is key to lasting security. Former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov argued any deal without U.S. guarantees risks future Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Horbachova cautiously hoped that Trump could become a global peace icon. "Trump has the opportunity to go down in history as a savior of a huge nation," she said. Reuters Al Jazeera

US assured Putin no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Biden says. President Joe Biden revealed in an interview with MSNBC that he assured Russian President Vladimir Putin the U.S. would not deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden recounted past conversations with Putin, stating he emphasized that nuclear arms had already been removed from Ukraine under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and would not return. Criticizing Putin’s ambitions to revive the Warsaw Pact, Biden reiterated U.S. opposition to Russian aggression and nuclear threats, which remain central to ongoing tensions over Ukraine's security. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine and the UK sign a 100-year partnership agreement. On his first visit to Ukraine since taking office, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a 100-year partnership on Thursday to deepen security and economic ties. Starmer pledged the UK’s “full part in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security” and left open the possibility of deploying British troops for training or post-war stabilization. At a press conference, Starmer emphasized the need for “peace through strength,” while Zelensky advocated for international peacekeeping forces. The treaty also targets military cooperation, critical minerals, and green steel production. Starmer noted, “Putin’s ambition...has been a monumental strategic failure.” The visit, days before Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, underscores Britain’s ongoing support for Ukraine, which has received $16 billion in aid from London since 2022. Meanwhile, European leaders debate peacekeeping roles amid concerns about Trump’s potential pressure for territorial concessions to Russia. Reuters Reuters Financial Times Washington Post

Russian drone shot down near presidential palace during Starmer's Ukraine visit. During Keir Starmer’s visit to Kyiv on Thursday, a Russian drone was shot down near the presidential palace as he met President Volodymyr Zelensky. Anti-aircraft gunfire was heard as air sirens blared, underscoring the daily threats Ukraine faces. Starmer called the incident a stark reminder of "Russian aggression," while Zelensky remarked, "We will say hello to them too." Ukraine’s air force reported downing 34 of 55 drones launched overnight, with no casualties in the capital. The attack coincided with discussions on strengthening Ukraine’s defense and NATO membership, further highlighting the ongoing security challenges. Sky News Reuters

Russia says any British military role in Ukraine under new 100-year deal would be worrying. Russia expressed concern over potential British military involvement in Ukraine under a new 100-year partnership announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned against NATO military infrastructure near Russia’s borders and criticized possible UK cooperation with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov, which Russia claims as its "internal sea." Zelensky also raised the prospect of Western peacekeepers post-war, with Starmer affirming Britain’s commitment to supporting Ukraine. Reuters

Ukrainian brigade pioneers remote-controlled ground assaults. Ukraine's Khartiia Brigade conducted a remote-controlled ground assault in the Kharkiv region last month, marking what it claimed as the first documented machine-only attack in the war. The operation utilized unmanned vehicles for reconnaissance, mine-clearing, and assaults, supported by drones, paving the way for a successful infantry advance. Spokesperson Volodymyr Dehtiarov highlighted the goal of minimizing human casualties by transferring risky operations to machines. Equipped with kamikaze drones and remote-controlled stretchers, the brigade is part of Ukraine's broader push for innovation against a larger Russian force. Despite domestic advancements, Ukrainian forces must continuously adapt as Russian troops adopt similar technologies. Reuters

Royal wartime decree is seen as a fallback option to keep Russia’s frozen €190 billion in EU. The European Union is preparing contingency plans, including invoking a 1944 Belgian royal decree, to maintain sanctions against Russia if Hungary vetoes their renewal. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán linked Hungary’s decision to the upcoming Trump administration’s stance on sanctions. The frozen €190 billion in Russian assets held at Belgium’s Euroclear is crucial for repaying a $50 billion Ukrainian loan and potentially supporting a ceasefire. Belgian King Philippe’s authority could block asset transfers, but legal risks and bilateral treaties with Russia complicate the move. EU officials continue negotiations, with stripping Hungary’s voting rights considered but unlikely to gain unanimous support. Financial Times

Russian attack Friday on Kryvyi Rih kills 4, injures 3, damages educational institution. A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Friday killed four people and injured three others, including a 22-year-old woman and two men in critical condition. The attack damaged a residential building and an educational institution. Governor Serhii Lysak warned of ongoing air alerts and urged residents to remain in shelters. Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelensky's hometown, frequently faces Russian strikes due to its strategic location near the front lines. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 16 over past day. Russian attacks killed one person and injured 16 across Ukraine over the past day, authorities said Friday morning, before another deadly attack on Kryvyi Rih. A drone strike in Kherson Oblast killed a man at a bus stop and injured seven others. In Kyiv Oblast, falling drone debris injured a 12-year-old boy. Drone strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts injured six people, with additional injuries reported in Donetsk Oblast. Targets included residential buildings, infrastructure, and vehicles. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's air force says it downed 33 Russian drones launched overnight. Ukrainian air defenses downed 33 of 50 Russian drones launched overnight on January 17, 2025. Attacks damaged infrastructure in Odesa, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, and Kyiv regions, with a child injured by debris near Kyiv. Ukraine also redirected nine drones using electronic warfare, while one entered Romanian airspace. Reuters

Ukraine strikes Russian S-400 radar equipment in Belgorod Oblast, military claims. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian S-400 radar equipment in Belgorod Oblast on Thursday, claiming to have destroyed the 92H6 radar station of the 568th regiment. Additional attacks hit a radar company in Belgorod and damaged vehicles and equipment. Overnight, drones also struck an oil depot in Voronezh and a gunpowder factory in Tambov. Moscow has not commented, and claims remain unverified. Belgorod Oblast, bordering Ukraine, frequently experiences cross-border strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russia says it retook 63.2% of the territory captured by Ukraine in its Kursk region. Russian forces have retaken 63.2% of the territory captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region of western Russia, the Russian defense ministry said on Friday. The ministry said Russia had recaptured four settlements in the first two weeks of January. Ukrainian troops burst across the border in a surprise incursion on Aug. 6 last year, seizing a chunk of territory that offers Kyiv a valuable bargaining chip in potential talks on ending the war. Reuters

UN appeals for $3.2 billion to support 8.2 million Ukrainian war victims. The United Nations has launched a $3.2 billion appeal to aid 8.2 million Ukrainians affected by Russia’s war, nearly three years since the invasion began. Most funds ($2.62 billion) will support 6 million people inside Ukraine, prioritizing those near the front lines. Another $1.2 billion will assist over 2 million Ukrainian refugees in 11 neighboring countries, including Poland and Moldova. U.N. officials stressed that sustained global support is vital and noted many refugees hope to return home eventually. Voice of America

Ukraine produced over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, minister says. Ukraine produced over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin announced on Thursday. These drones, capable of striking at night and dubbed "Baba Yaga," after a mythical witch, by Russian soldiers, also deliver supplies and disperse mines. During U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to Kyiv, he and President Volodymyr Zelensky inspected these drones and a new carrier platform for FPV drones. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov noted over 200,000 drones were delivered to Ukrainian forces by year-end. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–What it will take to end the war in Ukraine. Ending the war in Ukraine requires navigating complex challenges, including entrenched positions on both sides. Donald Trump, preparing to assume the U.S. presidency, has proposed leveraging military aid to push for a ceasefire within 100 days. However, Russia's advances, bolstered by heavy losses and foreign troop support, suggest Putin sees no need to compromise. Meanwhile, Ukraine, facing manpower shortages and stretched defenses, signals openness to ending the "hot phase" if robust security guarantees are provided. NATO membership remains Ukraine's ultimate goal, but skepticism among allies and Trump’s ambivalence toward treaties complicate this path. Experts warn that any ceasefire without addressing long-term security risks empowering Russia to regroup for future aggression. Ultimately, the conflict risks devolving into a war of exhaustion, with lasting peace contingent on stabilizing front lines and bridging deep geopolitical divides. Vox

Indians lured to Russia are dying on the front lines in Ukraine. The death of Indian national Binil Babu, forced to serve in the Russian army, has highlighted allegations of fraudulent recruitment of Indians into Russia’s military. Nearly 100 Indians have been lured with false job or education promises, only to find themselves deployed to Ukraine’s front lines. At least 12 Indians have died serving in the Russian armed forces, India's foreign ministry said on Friday, adding that 18 more are still serving in the army, of whom Russia has categorized 16 as "missing.” India has demanded the release of the remaining nationals. Moscow denies misconduct, yet families report agents exploiting workers and students. India launched a trafficking probe, but progress remains slow. Despite tensions, India-Russia trade ties continue to grow. Washington Post Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 16. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast and a gunpowder plant in Tambov Oblast on the night of Jan. 15-16, targeting Russian military supply infrastructure. North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast face unsustainable casualty rates, potentially wiping out their entire contingent by mid-April 2025 if current trends continue. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a “Centennial Partnership Agreement” to strengthen defense, economic, and NATO-related cooperation. Russia and Transnistria are negotiating European gas purchases through intermediaries to bypass geopolitical pipeline constraints.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump Can Make Russia Pay to Rebuild Ukraine. Niall Ferguson and Chris Miller argue that frozen Russian assets, totaling $300 billion, should fund Ukraine's reconstruction and defense. They criticize European resistance and Biden administration diplomacy for limiting access to these funds. Ferguson and Miller advocate for the Trump administration to use leverage to mobilize these reserves, noting that international law supports reparations. With $150 billion in war damage and $500 billion in economic losses, Ukraine requires significant external aid. They highlight the reserves' liquidity, minimal risk of Russian retaliation, and shifting European politics as factors enabling decisive action to assist Ukraine effectively. Wall Street Journal

AMERICAS

USTR determines China's targeted shipbuilding dominance is “unreasonable,” “actionable.”  China's efforts to dominate the global shipbuilding, maritime, and logistics sectors are "unreasonable" and "actionable" under U.S. trade law, announced the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on Thursday. The report, initiated under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, criticized Beijing’s "extraordinary control" over these industries, which undermines fair competition, restricts U.S. commerce, and increases economic security risks. However, it did not recommend specific penalties, leaving the responsibility to President-elect Donald Trump. China dismissed the findings, attributing its success in these sectors to innovation, market competition, and its “huge domestic market.” The USTR report noted that China builds 1,700 ships annually compared to fewer than five by the U.S., reflecting a sharp decline in the American shipbuilding industry since the 1970s. It also noted that China's practices, including its steel overcapacity and lack of labor rights, unfairly disadvantage market-driven competitors. U.S. officials, including USTR Katherine Tai and Senator Mark Kelly, underscored the need to revitalize America's shipbuilding and maritime industries to counter China's dominance. Labor leaders called for swift action, while Trump’s transition team has yet to comment. The findings set the stage for potential measures to strengthen U.S. supply chains and industries reliant on maritime trade. Reuters 

Former Bank of Canada governor Carney slides into race to replace Trudeau. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has announced his bid to replace Justin Trudeau as the leader of Canada's Liberal Party and prime minister, emphasizing his experience managing economic crises and addressing incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies. Speaking in his hometown of Edmonton, Alberta, Carney chastised Trudeau’s administration for overspending, underinvesting, and inordinately taxing the middle class. while pledging to focus on economic reforms and easing financial burdens on Canadians. Carney's entry into the leadership race could reshape Ottawa’s political landscape, with the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, currently enjoying a 20-point lead in polls. Poilievre has attacked Carney as a  “ultimate Liberal insider” and a supporter of the carbon tax, tying him to the unpopular outgoing prime minister. In response, Carney criticized Poilievre as lacking serious ideas and real-world experience, positioning himself as an outsider with a fresh approach. The leadership contest, which concludes on March 9, will determine Canada’s next prime minister, who may face a confidence vote shortly after Parliament resumes. Carney’s main rival appears to be Chrystia Freeland, another Alberta native and former finance minister. Both candidates have drawn public endorsements from Liberal lawmakers. Carney has resigned from all corporate roles, including his positions at Brookfield Asset Management and the United Nations, to focus on politics. Highlighting his global economic credentials, he aims to tackle key challenges like inflation, high interest rates, and a potential trade war with the U.S. under Trump’s renewed tariff threats. Bloomberg Telegraph Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press

CBP One, Biden’s border app for migrants to legally enter the U.S., could be facing its end.  The Associated Press is out with a report highlighting the role of the CBP One app in facilitating legal migration to the U.S., bringing almost 1 million people to the country on two-year permits with eligibility to work. The app, launched at the twilight of the Trump administration and expanded under Biden, has brought order to the border’s chaos by allowing migrants to apply for legal entry, drastically reducing illegal crossings. However, its future is uncertain as President-elect Donald Trump has signaled he may end the program, raising anxiety among migrants and advocates alike. Critics argue that CBP One, which is very popular among Cubans, Venezuelans, Haitians and Mexicans, prioritizes new arrivals over those who have lived in the U.S. illegally for years, while paying taxes. The article focuses on the efforts of Tijuana resident Martha Rosales, who turned her home into a migrant shelter and provides temporary housing, meals, and emotional support to migrants, many of whom use the CBP One app to secure U.S. entry appointments. Migrants, such as former Cuban doctor Dayron Garcia, praise the app as a "salvation" for allowing legal entry, while others worry about the implications of Trump’s potential crackdown on immigration policies. Associated Press

China’s Xi Jinping to send representative to Trump’s inauguration. Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in Washington on Monday, but will send Vice President Han Zheng as his special representative, a move announced by China’s foreign ministry. The decision reflects China's willingness to engage diplomatically while avoiding any perceived protocol breach, as no head of state has attended a U.S. presidential inauguration before; one expert said there was “zero chance” that Xi would “allow himself to be potted plant at Donald Trump’s triumphal coronation.” This symbolic gesture comes amid an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, with several of Trump’s key Cabinet nominees, including Secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio, having expressed hawkish views on China. Experts suggest the Asian superpower aims to maintain diplomatic courtesy while avoiding direct involvement in Trump’s inauguration. Han’s role is seen as largely symbolic rather than substantive. Beijing typically prefers leader-level talks to guide bilateral relations, but Xi has historically avoided ceremonial events, such as the coronation of King Charles III or the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, delegating vice presidents instead. Trump’s invitation to Xi in December was widely viewed as unlikely to be accepted, aligning with China's cautious approach. Associated Press Washington Post Reuters Bloomberg  

Brazilian court denies Bolsonaro ability to travel for Trump’s Jan. 20th inauguration.  The Brazilian Supreme Court has prohibited former President Jair Bolsonaro from leaving the country to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington, citing concerns over the possibility for an escape attempt. Justice Alexandre de Moraes denied Bolsonaro’s request to retrieve his passport, which was seized in February of last year amid an investigation into an alleged coup attempt by his supporters following his 2022 election defeat. The court questioned the legitimacy of Bolsonaro’s invitation to Trump’s event and found no compelling reason for his trip. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet argued that the visit lacked a "vital interest" to override public interest concerns. Bolsonaro's team criticized the decision, calling it baseless and disappointing, while noting the fact that he attended Argentina President Javier Milei’s inauguration in 2023 without issue. Bolsonaro stated that his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, would represent him at Trump’s ceremony on Monday. The former president is facing multiple investigations, including allegations of plotting a coup, illegal sale of gifts from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and falsifying vaccination records. Federal police have recommended criminal charges against him and 37 others for crimes against democracy. Bloomberg The Guardian Associated Press Reuters France 24

EUROPE

Russia’s growing ties with Iran have shaped the war in Ukraine. A new treaty will raise the stakes for Trump’s administration. Russia and Iran are set to sign a "comprehensive partnership agreement" on Sunday, solidifying a relationship that has shaped the war in Ukraine and challenges U.S. interests. This treaty follows cooperation on Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones, which have bolstered Russia's military efforts. While Moscow sees itself as the dominant partner, Iran seeks support amid regional threats and fears of the Trump administration. Experts note mutual distrust and strategic calculations, with Russia leveraging the partnership to escalate tensions with the West and Iran aiming for leverage in future U.S. negotiations. The alliance underscores a shared agenda against the U.S.-led international order. The two countries are “in the same trench in the fight against the West,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, a former Russian diplomat in Iran, now an associate professor at Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center. CNN Bloomberg

ANALYSIS–Russia and Iran have a troubled history despite their current alliance. Russia and Iran’s partnership, set to be formalized by a treaty on Sunday, reflects both historical conflict and evolving cooperation. The nations share a troubled past, including wars in the 18th and 19th centuries, Soviet occupation of Iran, and Cold War tensions. Relations improved post-1991, with Russia supplying Iran with weapons, nuclear technology, and support in the 2015 nuclear deal. They aligned militarily in Syria, jointly backing Bashar Assad. Recent collaboration includes drone and missile supplies aiding Russia in Ukraine, while Iran seeks advanced Russian defense systems. Despite these ties, mutual distrust persists, rooted in historical grievances and diverging goals. Associated Press 

Russia’s gas pipeline politics risk alienating its European allies. Russia’s ability to weaponize energy is diminishing as Europe increasingly diversifies its energy supplies. The Jan.  1 expiration of a gas transit deal, which Ukraine refused to renew, has further cut Moscow's influence. Moldova, a key target of Russian energy leverage, has managed to secure alternative supplies despite higher costs. Meanwhile, Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region, faces severe energy shortages, including rolling blackouts and industrial shutdowns, highlighting the fragility of its dependence on Russian gas. Analysts argue that Russia’s actions, including cutting Moldova’s gas over disputed debts, aim to destabilize the region. However, Europe’s reduced reliance on Russian gas undermines Moscow’s strategy. Pro-EU Moldovan President Maia Sandu accuses Russia of using energy blackmail to influence Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections. While Russia has pledged to restore free gas to Transnistria, the crisis underscores its waning control over Europe’s energy landscape as the continent shifts toward greater energy independence. Washington Post

Azerbaijan’s Leader, Emboldened, Picks a Rare Fight With Putin. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev’s public confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Dec. 25 downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane highlights a growing rift between former Soviet republics and Moscow. Aliyev rejected Putin’s explanations of birds or a Ukrainian drone, instead accusing Russia of covering up its air defenses’ role. Refusing Moscow's investigation proposal, Aliyev sent the plane’s black boxes to Brazil, signaling mistrust. Azerbaijan has leveraged Russia’s declining influence, pushing peacekeepers out of Nagorno-Karabakh and strengthening alliances with Turkey and Israel. Parliamentarian Rasim Musabekov called Russia’s response “absurd,” warning that post-Soviet states like Kazakhstan are reevaluating ties with Moscow. Survivors’ harrowing accounts underscore the tragedy’s emotional and geopolitical stakes. Aliyev’s demand for Russian accountability and compensation challenges Moscow’s authority, with one U.S. diplomat labeling the fallout “a proof of concept” for Azerbaijan’s autonomy. The case reflects Moscow’s eroding regional grip amid its war on Ukraine. New York Times

Opposition Accuses Georgian Ruling Party Of Cover Up Over Beating Of Former PM. Former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia was attacked on Jan. 15 in the Sheraton Hotel lobby in Batumi, sustaining a broken nose and a concussion. Opposition leaders from the "For Georgia" party accused the ruling Georgian Dream party of orchestrating the attack and manipulating video evidence to portray Gakharia as the aggressor. Georgian Dream claimed Gakharia initiated the altercation by throwing a drink at MP Dimitri Samkharadze. The Sheraton Hotel pledged to release security footage, but concerns remain about evidence tampering. The U.S. and U.K. embassies condemned rising violence against opposition figures, linking it to broader political unrest and protests. RFE/RL

Romania confirms the date and tightens the rules for presidential election rerun. Romania’s coalition government confirmed a rerun of its presidential election for May 4 and May 18 after the top court annulled last year’s results due to alleged Russian interference and TikTok’s preferential treatment of far-right candidate Calin Georgescu. New campaign rules mandate labeling election content, identifying sponsors, and requiring social media platforms to remove violations within five hours or face fines of up to 5% of turnover. Critics, including rights groups, argue the decree was passed without public consultation. The European Commission is investigating TikTok over suspected election interference in the Romanian vote. Reuters

Greenland’s PM stands firm on independence: ‘We want to be Greenlanders’. Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede told Foxe News on  Thursday that while the island wants close ties to Denmark and America, “the Greenlandic people don’t want to be Danes. The Greenlandic people don’t want to be Americans.” Egede emphasized Greenland’s desire for independence, leaving the decision to its people. He affirmed Greenland’s commitment to NATO and Western alliances, stressing, “Your security is our security.” His comments challenge President-elect Donald Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland, echoing Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who reiterated that “Greenland is not for sale” during a call with Trump. Politico 

Donald Trump Jr. Visited Greenland. Then Things Got Weird. Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Nuuk, Greenland, and his MAGA-themed event at a local pub have stirred unusual attention in the quiet Arctic capital. The visit follows his father’s revived interest in acquiring Greenland, a strategic and resource-rich island under Denmark's control. While most Greenlanders reject becoming part of the U.S., Trump's offer has reignited debates on independence, foreign investment, and geopolitical shifts. Local politicians are divided: some see U.S. interest as a means to economic autonomy from Denmark, while others fear exploitation of Greenland’s natural resources. Trump's rhetoric, including threats of tariffs and military action, adds tension as Denmark seeks to solidify ties with its territory. Meanwhile, Nuuk has become a media hotspot, drawing journalists and even American YouTubers staging stunts. Wall Street Journal

Driver rams into anti-government protesters in Serbia, seriously injuring a young woman. A driver rammed into anti-government protesters in Belgrade on January 16, seriously injuring a young woman, sparking outrage. The woman suffered head injuries but was reported stable in the hospital. Police detained the driver, charging him with attempted murder. The incident escalates tensions amid daily protests over the Novi Sad train station collapse that killed 15, with protesters demanding accountability and condemning corruption. Demonstrations also reflect broader dissatisfaction with President Aleksandar Vučić's autocratic governance. Associated Press 

Hungary Targets Anti-Graft Office in Raid Over Alleged Fraud. Hungarian prosecutors raided the offices of the Integrity Authority, the country’s anti-corruption agency, alleging misuse of funds, including claims that its head, Ferenc Biro, leased a car for his wife. Biro denied the accusations, calling the investigation an attempt to undermine the agency as it examined new corruption cases. Established in 2022 to address EU corruption concerns, the agency’s work follows the suspension of billions in EU funds. The raid coincided with Biro’s review of the National Communications Office, led by Antal Rogan, a top ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, recently sanctioned by the U.S. over corruption allegations. Bloomberg

THE MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu says Israel will approve Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal.  The Israeli cabinet will meet and give final approval to a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Friday.  Israeli cabinet meetings were postponed on Thursday due to last-minute disputes with Hamas and rifts inside Netanyahu’s governing coalition.  Early Friday, Netanyahu’s office said in a statement, he had been “informed by the negotiating team that agreements have been reached on a deal to release the hostages."  Netanyahu’s statement said the security cabinet is expected to meet on Friday and then a full meeting of the cabinet will approve the deal. As the Security Cabinet met Friday, Netanyahu’s office said that once those approvals happened, the first hostages were expected to be released Sunday.  White House spokesperson John Kirby said the White House believed the agreement was on track and a ceasefire would proceed "as soon as late this weekend." Early Friday, Netanyahu’s Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes kept up strikes in Gaza. Palestinian authorities said late Thursday that at least 86 people had been killed that day. Reuters   Haaretz   Jerusalem ​​Post  New York Times Haaretz

Biden: Netanyahu should address Palestinians’ 'legitimate concerns'. Outgoing Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden said on MSNBC. Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "has to find a way to accommodate the legitimate concerns" of Palestinians in order to protect Israel’s security over the long term.  "The idea that Israel is going to be able to sustain itself for the long term without accommodating the Palestinian question ... It's not going to happen," Biden said.   Reuters

Blinken press briefing disrupted over Gaza policy.  Several independent journalists known for their opposition to U.S. support of Israel disrupted the final press conference of Secretary of State Antony Blinken over the war in Gaza on Thursday. Sam Husseini, an independent journalist and longtime critic of American foreign policy, was carried from the room by security personnel after he shouted, "Criminal! Why aren't you in The Hague” and persisted heckling Blinken. Max Blumenthal, editor of the Grayzone, an online outlet that strongly criticizes many aspects of U.S. foreign policy, called out "Why did you keep the bombs flowing when we had a deal in May?" and was escorted out.  Blinken called the ceasefire “a moment of historic possibility for the region and well beyond.”  “It’s going to take tremendous effort, political courage, compromise to realize that possibility, to try to ensure that the gains that have been achieved over the past 15 months at enormous, excruciating cost are actually enduring,” he added.  CNN Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel

Syria’s new administration condemns Israeli air strike in southern Syria that killed three.  Syria’s new leader Thursday condemned an Israeli strike that killed three people and wounded five others in the south of the country.  “Israel advanced into the buffer zone under the pretext of the presence of Iranian militias, but this excuse no longer holds after Damascus was liberated,” Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of Syria’s new administration and formerly known as Mohammad al-Jolani, said at a press conference.  Sharaa, who led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that overthrew Bashar Assad, spoke alongside the visiting Qatari foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister. Al Thani said Israeli forces “must withdraw immediately” from the southern buffer zone. Israeli troops occupied the buffer zone in December and have made incursions into areas beyond the buffer zone. Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian government jets, tanks, and missiles, before and particularly after Assad’s overthrow. On Wednesday, an Israeli strike killed three people and injured several others, including a municipal official and security personnel linked to HTS. The Israeli military said that the strikes targeted vehicles carrying weapons.  Associated Press 

Leaders of rival Kurdish groups meet in Irbil to discuss ‘unity.’  The leaders of rival Kurdish groups met in Irbil in northern Iraq Thursday amid uncertainties over Kurds’ status in the region in the wake of political upheaval in Syria. Hoshyar Zebari, a senior Kurdistan Democratic Party official, described the meeting between KDP leader Masoud Barzani and Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, as a “significant achievement to strengthen Kurdish unity and position” during Syria’s transitional phase. Turkey-backed armed groups have been fighting Kurdish forces in northeast Syria.  A senior KDP member told the Associated Press that the talks focused on unifying the Kurdish position in Syria and separating the SDF from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist militant group designated a terrorist organization by Turkey.  Associated Press     

Macron visits Lebanon to push reforms, reconstruction. French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Beirut Friday aiming to speed the formation of a government able to effect reforms and reconstruction after last year’s Israel-Hezbollah conflict. France and the U.S. brokered a truce in November, and France helped bring in a new president and prime minister outside of Hezbollah’s waning influence.  A French presidency source briefing reporters said Macron would underscore Lebanon's sovereignty, urge structural economic reforms that would restore international confidence, and advocate a united government.  Macron also spoke with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ahead of the visit, hoping that Riyadh will help Lebanon’s new leaders, Joseph Aoun to be president and Nawaf Salam to be prime minister.   Reuters Agence France Presse/Barron's RBC-Ukraine

Satellite images reveal the appearance of a mysterious airstrip on Yemen’s Abd al-Kuri island.  The Associated Press has examined satellite photos that show a nearly completed airstrip on Yemen's remote Abd al-Kuri Island, likely built by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has expanded its military presence in the region. The airstrip could serve as a strategic site for monitoring the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, vital trade routes affected by recurrent Houthi rebel attacks and weapons smuggling from Iran. The UAE has positioned itself as a key player in the Saudi-led conflict against the Iran-backed Houthis. The airstrip’s construction, coupled with similar projects in Mocha and Dhubab, highlights escalating regional tensions. Critics, including the Houthis, accuse the UAE of violating Yemeni sovereignty, while Abu Dhabi defends its activities as humanitarian efforts conducted in cooperation with Yemen’s government. The UAE has a history of military operations in the region, including anti-smuggling campaigns. The Houthi rebels, who have intensified their regional attacks and targeted U.S. and Israeli assets, pose ongoing challenges. President-elect Donald Trump may reclassify the Houthis as a terrorist organization, a move supported by the UAE but one that risks escalating the conflict further. Experts warn that renewed violence in Yemen is likely, given the current tensions and the fragile state of peace. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Washington will “never abandon” its Pacific allies, says ex-Vice President Pence in Taipei. Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who was visiting Taipei on Friday, asserted that “America will never abandon our allies across the Pacific,” and urged the incoming Trump administration to reaffirm its commitment to the self-governing island’s defense, and support its freedom amid rising tensions with China. Pence highlighted the need for continued military aid, regular arms sales, and negotiations for a free trade agreement with Taiwan, a longstanding goal for Taipei. He said there was bipartisan agreement in Washington that Beijing poses the greatest strategic and economic threat to the U.S. and its allies. Pence also reiterated American respect for the people of Taiwan. His visit comes as China increases military pressure on the island and refuses dialogue with President Lai Ching-te. Reuters The Guardian The Hill  

Beijing must stop snubbing Taiwanese leader Lai, says island’s top China official. Taiwan's top China affairs official, Chiu Chui-cheng, warned that the government will not tolerate Beijing engaging solely with opposition politicians while refusing dialogue with President Lai Ching-te's democratically elected administration. In an interview with Nikkei, Chiu criticized Beijing for unfairly portraying Lai's government as "provocative and unreasonable" and reiterated concerns over the safety of Taiwanese citizens in mainland China. Amid ongoing tensions, Taiwan announced plans to enhance surveillance and management of ships carrying flags of convenience. This follows an incident involving a Chinese-linked cargo vessel suspected of damaging an undersea communications cable, further highlighting strained cross-strait relations. Nikkei Asia Reuters

Philippine navy conducts drill near contested shoal as China deadlock persists. The Philippine Navy conducted a "routine unilateral exercise" on Friday near the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to bolster its capability to secure Manila’s waters and maintain territorial integrity. The exercises, set to run from Jan. 17-19, involved three naval ships, including the Antonio Luna frigate and two other patrol vessels. The drills coincided with ongoing tensions between Manila and Beijing, including challenges by the Philippine Coast Guard to the presence of China’s largest coast guard vessel, which it claims is patrolling illegally in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). While the Philippines urged China to respect its sovereign rights on Friday, Beijing did not respond. The two nations held talks on Thursday, agreeing to improve communication, foster cooperation, and resolve disputes peacefully, despite continued disagreements over territorial claims. China's expansive claims in the South China Sea, rejected by a 2016 international tribunal ruling, overlap with the EEZs of several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines. Both sides also promised to promote cooperation in coast guard operations and marine science. Reuters

China set to resume certain group tours to Taiwan. The Chinese tourism ministry on Friday announced plans to resume group tours to Taiwan from Shanghai and Fujian province, a move welcomed by Taiwan. However, no specific date has been set. The announcement comes in the wake of prolonged disagreements between Beijing and Taipei over the resumption of Chinese tourism to the sovereign island since the end of COVID-19 restrictions, amidst broader tensions over China's sovereignty claims on the island. The Asian giant stated that the resumption aims to normalize people-to-people exchanges and enhance well-being on both sides. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council welcomed the decision and urged Beijing to finalize details through established cross-strait channels. However, Taiwan still maintains its travel warning against China due to perceived threats from Beijing. China on Friday urged Taipei to cancel the travel warning, and to resume all direct travel links. Reuters Deutsche Welle 

China’s population plummets for a third straight year. China's population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, decreasing by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, and highlighting challenges such as an aging population and a shrinking workforce. This trend mirrors other East Asian nations with declining birth rates, driven by high living costs, delayed marriages, and career pursuits. China’s restrictive immigration policies exacerbate the issue. Aging poses significant pressures, with over 22% of the population aged 60 or older, expected to surpass 30% by 2035. This has strained China’s underfunded social security system, while declining birth rates have led to vacant schools being repurposed as elder care facilities. Efforts to boost births through financial incentives have seen little long-term success, and the nation faces concerns that it may “grow old before it grows rich,” as its aging population threatens economic growth and stability. Associated Press Al Jazeera Reuters Financial Times  

South Korean investigators finalizing formal arrest warrant against Yoon. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) is close to filing a formal arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in connection with his martial law case. The decision comes as Yoon, who has been in detention since Wednesday, refused to appear for further questioning on Friday. His lawyer said the embittered leader “doesn't see any reason or need to respond to a question-and-answer type of interrogation." Yoon's detention followed a 10-hour interrogation this week after he was apprehended at home. His legal challenge to the detention was dismissed by the Seoul Central District Court on Thursday. The CIO must file the arrest warrant with the Seoul Western District Court before a 48-hour deadline expires Friday night. Yoon's lawyer stated that his client has no intention of cooperating further with the investigation. Yonhap News Agency Reuters Al Jazeera The Guardian 

South Korean police detain acting chief of Presidential Security Service. Kim Seong-hoon, the acting head of South Korea's Presidential Security Service (PSS), was detained by police on Friday for allegedly obstructing an investigation into impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. Kim is accused of blocking state anti-corruption investigators from executing a detention warrant for Yoon on January 3 over his botched imposition of martial law. Kim, who assumed his role last week after the resignation of the former PSS chief, was detained after ignoring three summonses for questioning. He defended his actions as "legitimate security duties" before his detention. Yonhap News Agency

Japanese FM to stress defence spending, investment at Trump’s inauguration on Monday. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya on Friday announced plans to underscore Japan's economic and national security contributions during his upcoming visit to Washington for President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. During the four-day trip, starting Sunday, Iwaya will be the first senior Japanese official to meet members of Trump's administration, including Secretary of State nominee Senator Marco Rubio. Iwaya highlighted Japan's defense spending target of 2% of GDP by 2027 and its position as the leading U.S. investor over the past five years as key points of discussion. He aims to strengthen understanding of Japan's commitments to the U.S.-Japan alliance, which includes hosting U.S. military bases near China. Despite strong bilateral ties, Japan remains uncertain about potential U.S. trade tariffs on its exports, such as automobiles. This visit will also lay the groundwork for a meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, expected sometime in February. Reuters Nippon.com 

ANALYSIS–Pakistan’s bet on Taliban backfires as violence surge. Pakistan’s support for the Afghan Taliban has backfired, with violence in the country reaching its highest level in nine years. In 2024, over 2,500 people were killed in attacks, many by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operating from Afghanistan. Islamabad had hoped the Taliban regime would curb cross-border militancy but now accuses Kabul of inaction. Pakistan’s efforts to pressure the Taliban include deporting Afghan refugees, border closures, and airstrikes, but progress remains limited. Rising violence has shaken investor confidence, including China’s Belt and Road projects. Analysts warn the Taliban’s ideological ties to the TTP hinder decisive action. Financial Times

Rocket and gun attack on aid convoy in Pakistan’s volatile northwest leaves 5 dead. The death toll from an attack on an aid convoy in Pakistan's northwestern Kurram district has risen to at least five, local officials confirmed on Jan. 17th. The convoy, which was carrying food and medical supplies for residents affected by sectarian violence, was ambushed with guns and rockets on Thursday. Two security officers and three truck drivers were killed, with five drivers still unaccounted for. The attackers burned their trucks. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which occurred in a region plagued by sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite tribes. Since July 2024, at least 130 people have died in the conflict, with tensions escalating after a deadly attack in November that killed 52, mostly Shiites. The assault follows a recent government-brokered ceasefire deal between tribal leaders. Kurram, a Shiite-majority area in Sunni-dominated Pakistan, has a long history of sectarian strife. Associated Press 

Pakistan’s Imran Khan handed 14-year jail term in land graft case. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was sentenced to 14 years in prison on Friday in a land corruption case, alongside his wife, Bushra Bibi, who received a 7-year sentence. The case involves allegations that the couple accepted land from a real estate developer during Khan's premiership (2018–2022) in exchange for illegal favors linked to the Al-Qadir Trust. Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) plans to appeal the verdict, claiming the charges lack solid evidence. The ruling disrupts reconciliation talks between PTI and the government and marks a significant blow to Khan, who has faced numerous legal challenges since his 2022 ouster. Reuters

AFRICA

Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say. The U.S. has accused Sudan’s military of using chemical weapons at least twice against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.) in remote areas, raising concerns they could be deployed in densely populated Khartoum. These actions, along with indiscriminate bombings and starvation tactics, have fueled the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with 150,000 deaths, 11 million displaced, and severe famine. The U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions against Sudan’s military chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, following similar measures against R.S.F. leader Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan for genocide. Aid groups fear retaliation from Sudan’s military, potentially worsening the crisis by restricting vital humanitarian efforts. New York Times Reuters Al Jazeera BBC Washington Post Bloomberg 

Nigerian army claims 76 Islamist fighters killed in Borno state during recent operations.  The Nigerian military on Thursday announced that its troops have killed 76 militants from Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in recent operations in Borno state, the center of a long-running insurgency. Between January 7 and 13, 24 fighters were killed in offensive operations in Damboa, Bama, and Chibok. Troops also arrested 72 suspects, rescued 8 hostages, and seized weapons, including AK-47 rifles, grenades, and improvised explosive devices. No details were provided about troop casualties. The militants have been intensifying attacks in Borno, including a recent assault on the Dumba community, in which 40 farmers were killed. Reuters Associated Press  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump’s ‘energy tsar’ says US will lose ‘AI arms race’ without fossil fuels. Doug Burgum, Donald Trump’s interior secretary nominee, warned that the U.S. risks losing the "AI arms race" to China without boosting fossil fuel electricity generation. Speaking to senators on January 16, Burgum cited grid weaknesses and regulatory obstacles as barriers to reliable power. He proposed reallocating public lands for oil drilling and reducing tax breaks for renewables, arguing fossil fuels are essential for meeting rising energy demands driven by AI development. Advocating for technologies like carbon capture to mitigate emissions, he stated, “America produces energy cleaner, smarter, and safer than anywhere in the world.” Burgum criticized reliance on renewables, labeling them "intermittent and unreliable," and emphasized that restricting U.S. fossil fuel production benefits autocratic regimes like Russia and Venezuela. He declined to support Biden’s offshore wind projects, aligning with Trump’s pledge to end them. Burgum’s potential role as Trump’s "energy tsar" would grant him broad powers to reshape energy policy. Financial Times

Chinese hackers breached Yellen's computer in U.S. Treasury cyberattack. Chinese state-sponsored hackers infiltrated US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's computer, along with the computers of Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Acting Under Secretary Brad Smith, according to two sources with knowledge on the matter. The hackers accessed unclassified files, but breached less than 50 files on Yellen’s machine. The broader breach targeted over 400 Treasury devices, exposing usernames, passwords, and over 3,000 unclassified files, including sensitive law enforcement and national security-related data. The hackers reportedly focused on Treasury's sanctions, intelligence, and international affairs roles. The attack, attributed to a Chinese group known as "Silk Typhoon" or "UNC5221," was facilitated by exploiting networks of software contractor BeyondTrust Corp. The Treasury notified the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, FBI, and other intelligence agencies, while Congress was briefed on the breach. China has consistently denied involvement, dismissing the allegations as baseless. This breach follows earlier accusations in 2023 of Chinese hackers accessing the email accounts of American officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Ambassador Nicholas Burns. Bloomberg Reuters Economic Times 

Hackers stole FBI call and text logs in 2024 breach. The FBI has warned that the hackers who infiltrated AT&T’s systems last year compromised FBI agents' call and text logs, raising concerns about confidential informants' safety and ongoing investigations. The breach included six months of unclassified data from FBI devices using AT&T’s FirstNet service. While the content of communications wasn’t accessed, the stolen data linked agents to informants, endangering their identities. The FBI acted quickly to assess and mitigate the damage, warning agents to use secure communication methods. The breach was part of a broader hacking campaign targeting AT&T and Snowflake Inc., exploiting weak security measures. Hackers also accessed data from 165 Snowflake customers. AT&T delayed public disclosure, approved by the Justice Department, to manage national security risks. Two men, linked to the AT&T hack and data extortion, have been charged, alongside a U.S. Army soldier accused of attempting to sell confidential data. AT&T reportedly paid a $400,000 extortion fee to have the stolen data erased, though its security remains uncertain. The breach highlights vulnerabilities in outsourcing sensitive data storage, with experts criticizing the FBI’s operational security practices. This incident may prompt changes in how the bureau safeguards communications with confidential informants. Bloomberg Reuters

TikTok’s looming ban is alarming advertisers. Advertisers who depend on TikTok are scrambling to prepare contingency plans as the Chinese-owned app becomes closer and closer to being banned in the U.S. The ban, based on national security concerns, is set to take effect on Sunday unless ByteDance sells its U.S. assets. It could disrupt access for 170 million U.S. users and jeopardize $11 billion in annual U.S. ad spending on the platform. Many advertisers, initially dismissive of the threat, are now exploring alternatives like Instagram and YouTube Shorts. TikTok staff seemed to be unsure about the platform’s fate, though the company offered favorable refund terms to advertisers if services are interrupted. Meanwhile, brands, content creators, and users began downloading their data in anticipation of losing access. Despite the uncertainty, TikTok continued to roll out new advertising tools and promote its presence at global events like the World Economic Forum. Since its U.S. launch, TikTok has grown to account for 20% of social media ad spending, driven by its influence on e-commerce and its appeal to young Americans. The platform has also cultivated a strong influencer and shopping culture, with nearly 44% of American TikTok users making purchases directly through the app in 2024, surpassing Facebook and Instagram. If the ban proceeds, it would significantly reshape the digital advertising landscape. Reuters 

U.S. tariffs could lower global growth outlook, warns World Bank. The World Bank issued a warning on Thursday that proposed U.S. tariffs, including a 10% across-the-board rate and higher rates on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, could reduce already weak global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 by 0.3 percentage points if trading partners retaliate. U.S. GDP could shrink by up to 0.9% in such a scenario, while global trade tensions risk deepening economic fragmentation. The Bank's latest forecast predicts flat global growth of 2.7% through 2026, with developing economies facing their weakest long-term growth since 2000 due to high debt, weak investment, climate change costs, and sluggish productivity. Developing countries are expected to grow by just 4% annually in 2025 and 2026, well below pre-pandemic levels. Emerging economies are projected to remain 5% below their pre-pandemic output trend by 2026, widening the gap between rich and poor nations. The World Bank highlighted the growing risks of trade restrictions, policy uncertainty, and persistent inflation, which could hinder investment and slow interest rate cuts. Global trade growth is forecast to remain below pre-pandemic averages, contributing to a challenging economic outlook for developing economies over the next 25 years. Reuters BBC

Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC records 57% surge in profit amid AI boom. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest chipmaker, has reported a 57% rise in quarterly profit, reaching $11.4 billion, driven by the artificial intelligence boom. Its 2024 revenue increased nearly 34% to $88 billion, with fourth-quarter revenue up 38.8% to $26.4 billion, both exceeding expectations. Amid U.S.-China trade and technology tensions, the U.S. announced new restrictions on AI chip exports to limit China's access. While close allies, including Taiwan, are exempt, these restrictions could impact global demand for AI chips. TSMC plans to open three factories in the U.S. and two in Japan, supported by billions in subsidies from the respective governments to enhance domestic chip production. Associated Press Business Insider  

SpaceX's Starship explodes in flight test over Atlantic, forcing FAA to divert flights. A SpaceX Starship rocket broke apart eight minutes after launching from South Texas on Thursday, disrupting air traffic over the Gulf of Mexico as debris fell. The newly upgraded Starship, carrying mock satellites but no crew, lost communication due to an internal liquid oxygen leak that caused a pressure buildup and subsequent failure. This mishap marks a setback for Elon Musk’s plans to conduct 12 Starship tests this year. The rocket failure led to dozens of flights being diverted or delayed, with the FAA briefly slowing air traffic in the affected area. SpaceX’s test-to-failure approach has seen past high-profile setbacks, but this incident occurred during a mission phase the company had previously succeeded in. Musk remained optimistic, posting on social media, "Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed!" He suggested that the next launch may occur as early as next month, though an FAA investigation could delay further tests. The Starship upper stage featured significant upgrades and was designed for controlled reentry into the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster, however, successfully returned to the launch pad. This test was SpaceX’s seventh since 2023 in Musk’s multibillion-dollar effort to develop a rocket capable of transporting humans to Mars and deploying large satellite payloads. Space.com Reuters Financial Times CNN TechCrunch 

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief