Report for Friday, February 7, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Friday, February 7, 2025

Ukraine says Trump has no official peace plan in response to apparent leak

Iran inaugurates its first drone-carrier warship

Trump meeting Japan's Ishiba as China trade war simmers

Big Tech lines up over $300 billion in AI spending for 2025

Massive surge in data breaches: over 5 billion accounts were compromised in 2024

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Future Of Counterterrorism: A Proactive, Tech-Driven Strategy.  Microsoft cybersecurity expert Michael Salazar argues that the U.S. must take a "proactive, tech-driven" approach to counterterrorism. "The modern terrorist threat is not bound by geography,” Salazar writes. “Digital platforms have enabled decentralized, borderless operations, where propaganda, radicalization, and even cyberattacks can occur remotely. Traditional counterterrorism measures—primarily military responses and intelligence tracking—struggle to keep pace with this evolving landscape."  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine says Trump has no official peace plan in response to apparent leak. An unconfirmed U.S. peace plan proposed by President Donald Trump, reported by Ukrainian outlet Strana, suggests a ceasefire by Easter on April 20, freezing Russian advances and barring Ukraine from NATO. The plan has been circulating in political and diplomatic circles in Ukraine. Kyiv would be required to recognize Russian sovereignty over Kremlin-occupied territories – some 20% of Ukraine – and withdraw troops from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where it launched an offensive in August. At the same time, a European-led demilitarized zone would be established. Trump reportedly aims to finalize a deal within 100 days, proposing a May 9 declaration of the war’s end – coinciding with the 80th commemoration of the end of World War II. Kyiv would then be asked not to extend martial law or mobilize troops. The plan includes continued U.S. military aid and European Union-backed reconstruction. Special duties on Russian energy sales will help fund Ukraine's rebuilding efforts in exchange for the West gradually lifting sanctions. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office denied the plan’s existence. Zelensky said “there is no official plan yet” and said the world should wait for “our official negotiations and official results.” He has emphasized that Ukraine cannot be excluded from negotiations, warning against a politically symbolic settlement. Russia claims no substantive U.S. offer has been made. The reported plan has yet to receive confirmation from Washington. Timothy Ash, a longtime Ukraine analyst based in London, said the details are credible. “The plan revealed in Strana is quite close to the paper jointly written by” Trump special envoy Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz on April 11, 2024, Ash wrote. “The Strana/Daily Mail reveal is quite close to how the Trump team is thinking these things through.” The Daily Mail Kyiv Independent

Russia says the U.S. needs to formulate its stance on how to end the Ukraine war. Russia's Foreign Ministry said Thursday the United States must clarify its policy on ending the war in Ukraine before Moscow can determine its position. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted that while Washington has made statements, there is no clarity on concrete U.S. actions. Russian state media reported that a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is in advanced planning stages, although the two leaders have not spoken since Trump's inauguration. Trump and his envoy, Keith Kellogg, are working on a peace plan, but details remain undisclosed. Reuters

Kellogg says the peace plan will not be presented at the Munich conference. Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, denied reports that a peace plan would be presented at the Munich Security Conference. Speaking Thursday on Newsmax, Kellogg said that Trump would unveil the plan later. Bloomberg had earlier reported that the plan might include freezing the war and unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine. Kellogg emphasized that his team would gather insights from European allies at the conference before advising Trump. He also reiterated the U.S. push for Ukrainian elections, particularly if a ceasefire is reached. Ukrainska Pravda

Trump ready to double down on Russian sanctions, US envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg says. President Donald Trump is prepared to escalate sanctions on Russia while pushing both Moscow and Kyiv to make concessions to end the war, according to Keith Kellogg, his special envoy for Ukraine. In an interview with the New York Post, Kellogg said that sanctions enforcement is currently at “a three” out of 10 but could be increased, targeting Russia’s oil production and exports. He emphasized Trump’s ability to use economic, diplomatic, and military leverage rather than relying solely on military aid. “If there’s anybody who understands leverage, it’s President Donald J. Trump,” he said. Kellogg criticized President Joe Biden’s “as long as it takes” strategy, calling it a “bumper sticker” rather than an actual plan. Speaking about Trump’s approach, Kellogg noted that Trump has long viewed Ukraine’s war losses as “World War II levels of violence,” making peace negotiations urgent. He said Trump’s goal is first to “stop the killing” and then shape future negotiations. Kellogg acknowledged in the interview that Ukraine may need to cede territory in exchange for security guarantees, stating, “Both sides have to give.” He compared Trump’s approach to Teddy Roosevelt’s Treaty of Portsmouth, which ended the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, saying, “You have to find a balance.” New York Post

Kellogg meets Ukrainian ambassador to US. Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, held his first official meeting with Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington, Oksana Markarova, on Thursday to discuss Ukraine’s relations with the Trump administration. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, have also spoken with U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz. Donald Trump has not detailed his Ukraine policy, but Kellogg suggested the U.S. wants Ukraine to hold elections if a truce is reached. Meanwhile, Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky said a Trump-Vladimir Putin meeting is in “advanced” planning, possibly in February or March. Reuters

Ukraine to host Kellogg in February, top official says. Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, will visit Ukraine in February after the Munich Security Conference, according to Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff. Other sources said the visit is scheduled for Feb. 20. Kyiv aims to ensure the Trump administration understands the battlefield situation and Ukraine’s military needs. Trump is reportedly considering a peace plan that includes freezing the front line, delaying NATO accession, and partially lifting sanctions on Russia. Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky will lead Ukraine’s delegation at the Munich Security Conference. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will lead Ukraine’s delegation at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14-16. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and special envoy Keith Kellogg will also attend. Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, said Ukraine will push for security guarantees and stress unity against Russia. There is no confirmed date for a Zelensky-Donald Trump meeting, but Ukraine plans to brief Kellogg. Associated Press

Ukraine Launches New Offensive Push in Russia’s Kursk Region. Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, though its objectives remain unclear. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed its forces repelled eight waves of Ukrainian attacks near Sudzha, but Russian milbloggers suggested Ukrainian forces made gains, including passing through Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The use of U.S.-donated M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicles and German-made recovery vehicles hints at a serious push. President Volodymyr Zelensky framed the operation as part of a “peace through strength” strategy, arguing that fighting Russia on its own soil is both just and effective. Meanwhile, Russia’s position in Kursk remains tenuous, with North Korea reportedly sending 12,000 troops, a third of whom have been killed or wounded. The offensive comes ahead of key international meetings, including a Ukraine Defense Contact Group session and the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg dismissed speculation of presenting a peace plan, insisting only Donald Trump could broker an end to the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted the situation in Kursk was “very difficult” as he met with regional governors. The War Zone Politico EU The Guardian

To Keep Aid Coming, Ukraine Appeals to Trump Allies: Conservative Christians. Ukraine sent its largest delegation yet to Washington’s National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday, aiming to rally conservative Christian support for U.S. aid. The group, including Ukrainian Orthodox Church head Metropolitan Epiphanius I, lawmakers, and military chaplains, argued that Russian occupation threatened religious freedom, targeting Catholic, Protestant, and evangelical communities. Organizers, including former parliamentarian Pavlo Unguryan, highlight Ukraine as Europe’s “Bible Belt” and stress religious persecution under Russian control. The outreach seeks to influence President Donald Trump's allies. Past religious appeals have helped secure U.S. support, with House Speaker Mike Johnson previously engaging with Ukrainian Baptists. Russian forces have reportedly damaged or looted over 630 religious sites, while Ukrainian evangelicals have expanded services abroad for refugees. New York Times

NATO allies warn Russia’s war machine is as dangerous as ever. Despite suffering heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia remains a growing threat to NATO, with officials warning that its military is rebuilding and preparing for future conflicts. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said Russia is “more dangerous than ever,” citing its continued weapons production and battlefield experience. Keir Giles of Chatham House noted that Moscow often overestimates its capabilities, risking reckless attacks elsewhere. Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Sprūds warned Russia could regain military strength within five years. Meanwhile, European nations report increased Russian hybrid attacks, including cyberattacks and sabotage. Estonia and Lithuania are raising defense spending to 5% of GDP, the highest in NATO, as leaders push for greater investment in arms production. Despite NATO’s superior firepower, analysts caution that Russia’s long-term military posture remains aggressive. Without strong deterrence, officials fear Russia will escalate both conventional and hybrid warfare, with the Baltic states among the most vulnerable targets. Business Insider

UK takes on leadership of Biden-era Ukraine military aid group. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey will lead Wednesday’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting in Brussels, taking over from the U.S. for the first time. The UDCG, involving over 50 allies, was established in April 2022 to coordinate military aid for Ukraine. New U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will attend, but the Trump administration has not committed to future weapons support, and no new pledges are expected. Allies agree on continued backing for Kyiv, but uncertainty over U.S. leadership has led to discussions on a permanent coordinator. Former U.S. defense official Jim Townsend said trust in Washington is low. Politico EU

Ukraine receives F-16s from the Netherlands and first Mirage jets from France. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Thursday the Netherlands had delivered U.S.-made F-16 fighters to Ukraine. The aircraft and French Mirage jets "will soon begin carrying out combat missions, strengthening our defense,” Umerov said on Facebook. Reuters

Ukrainian Troops Use Terminator Drone for Remote Mining. Ukrainian troops are deploying the Terminator drone, based on the Volya-E unmanned ground platform, for remote mining operations. Used by the 113th Separate Brigade of the Territorial Defense, the drone can carry up to eight TM-62 anti-tank mines and replace up to four soldiers, reducing risks to personnel. It has a 12-kilometer-per-hour speed, a 150-kilogram payload capacity, and is compact enough for SUV transport. The platform has also been used for medical evacuations and electronic warfare, with upgrades allowing UAV disruption and integration with combat turrets for additional firepower. Militarnyi

ANALYSIS–Pax Technica Is Over. Western electronics continue to power Russian, Iranian, and North Korean weaponry despite sanctions designed to prevent this. Russia relies on imported components for missile guidance and military hardware, with debris from strikes in Ukraine revealing Western-made semiconductors, navigation systems, and transistors. U.S. companies produced 64% of components found in Russian weapons, with additional parts coming from Switzerland, Germany, Japan, and Taiwan. The failure of sanctions enforcement stems from a lack of coordinated oversight, weak penalties for violators, and third-party nations like Kazakhstan and the UAE acting as intermediaries. Without a stronger multilateral control regime akin to the Cold War-era Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls, authoritarian states will continue exploiting loopholes to access critical technology. The authors argue that democracies must take decisive action to restrict these supply chains or risk emboldening expansionist regimes. The revival of a pax technica—a world where advanced states control vital technology—depends on political will and institutional reform. Foreign Policy

The dangers of fighting in Ukraine when everything is visible. The Ukraine war has become a "transparent battlefield," where drones and satellites provide real-time surveillance, eliminating the traditional "fog of war." Soldiers rely on electronic warfare and camouflage to evade detection, as moving or staying still both carry risks. Reconnaissance patrols and large troop gatherings have largely ceased. Defenders benefit, with artillery targeting quickly adjusted. Russia's infantry advances rely on high casualty tolerance. AI aids intelligence analysis but can misinterpret data. While transparency exposes movements, it doesn’t guarantee understanding—last summer, Russia misread Ukraine’s troop buildup near Sumy, failing to anticipate the Kursk raid. Fighting now demands adaptation to constant visibility. The Economist

Why Russia's economy may be even worse off after the war in Ukraine ends. Russia’s economy may worsen even after the Ukraine war ends, according to the Center of European Policy Action (CEPA). The country has become heavily reliant on military spending, with its 2025 defense budget reaching 13.5 trillion rubles, up from 10.8 trillion in 2024. While this has fueled short-term GDP growth, long-term prospects remain bleak. A severe labor shortage—partly due to emigration—has disrupted key industries, forcing the Kremlin to choose between importing workers or facing ongoing shortages. Russia’s tech sector is struggling, with patent filings down significantly. Western sanctions have also cut energy revenues by nearly a quarter in 2023, with further declines expected. The government prioritizes defense over science, education, and health, which mirrors Soviet-era economic distortions, potentially leading to a long-term crisis. While sanctions haven’t stopped Russia’s aggression, they have weakened its economic stability, raising concerns about a repeat of the 1980s Soviet collapse. Business Insider

EBRD plans to invest at least $1.56 billion in Ukraine's war-hit economy this year. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to invest at least €1.5 billion ($1.56 billion) in Ukraine this year to support its wartime economy, focusing on energy and infrastructure. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, the EBRD has invested over €6.2 billion in Ukraine, including a record €2.4 billion in 2024. President Odile Renaud-Basso emphasized energy modernization and renewable development as key areas for postwar investment. She met with President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss funding reforms after U.S. President Trump paused USAID assistance, noting the EBRD could offer limited support in place of halted American aid. Reuters

New British naval drones in testing for Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defense is finalizing tests on two uncrewed maritime systems, Snapper and Wasp, developed to support Ukraine. Minister Maria Eagle confirmed the systems are undergoing final testing but provided no timeline. The MOD’s Project COOKSON is also advancing a fast, modular attack vessel with autonomous capabilities designed for Ukrainian operations. It will carry multiple one-way effectors with high-explosive warheads, operate in GNSS-degraded environments, and feature air defense systems. Industry partners from NATO, Ukraine, and Five Eyes nations contribute to development, emphasizing scalable production and flexible deployment for multiple missions. UK Defense Journal

Ukraine War ‘Monopoly’ Game Goes on Sale in Russia. A Russian board game, “Special Operation on the Outskirts,” has gone on sale before the Ukraine invasion’s third anniversary. Marketed as a modern twist on Monopoly, it casts players as Russian commanders “liberating” 14 Ukrainian cities. The game’s title exploits the Russian word Okraina (outskirts), echoing Kremlin propaganda. Featuring Russian tanks and explosions, it portrays eastern Ukrainian cities as welcoming “liberators” while others resist due to “enemy propaganda.” Sold on Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, it is promoted as a gift for Defenders of the Fatherland Day on Feb. 23, just before the invasion's anniversary. Moscow Times

At a Draft Site in Ukraine, an Anguished Wait for a Chance to Say Goodbye. At a Kyiv recruitment site, Ukrainian families gather in the dark, hoping for a final goodbye before their loved ones are sent to war. With volunteer enlistment dwindling, authorities are detaining men in the streets, often without warning. Families arrive with essentials—coats, food, chargers—highlighting how suddenly many were taken. Some recruits, like Artem Vakar, managed a brief message before being transported for processing. Others, like Anya’s husband, were found only after frantic searches. “He’s not a soldier,” she said, weeping. By morning, new buses will arrive, and the cycle will begin again as Ukraine scrambles to replenish its ranks. New York Times

As the Russian bomb Zaporizhzhia, this school offers hope underground. Under relentless Russian attacks, Zaporizhzhia remains defiant. Amid missile strikes, an underground school for 1,000 students has opened, ensuring education continues despite the war. The city, a key industrial and strategic hub, faces constant bombardment, including a recent “double-tap” attack that killed one and injured 16. Governor Ivan Fedorov warns of continued danger, especially with Russia occupying the nearby nuclear plant. Despite the destruction, authorities are rebuilding, determined to prevent a “wasteland.” MP Oleksandr Vasiuk stresses the fight for a just peace, but locals know the war’s end remains uncertain. Zaporizhzhia’s resilience endures as life carries on under fire. The Independent

Ukraine says Russia uses messaging apps to recruit terrorists. Russian intelligence is using messaging apps and online forums to recruit Ukrainians for terrorist attacks, Ukraine’s national police chief Ivan Vyhivskyi said Wednesday. Targets include young, unemployed, and socially vulnerable individuals, who are often killed or imprisoned after carrying out attacks. Nine incidents this year targeted police, military recruitment centers, and postal facilities, aiming to destabilize Ukraine. Russia has also used Telegram to recruit operatives for espionage and disinformation. In December, Ukraine uncovered a Russian campaign involving teenagers gathering intelligence under the guise of “quest games.” In September, a suspect was detained for allegedly aiding Russian surveillance via Telegram. The Record 

Czechia extends protection for Ukrainians and tightens rules for Russian applicants. Czech President Petr Pavel signed a law on Thursday extending temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees for another year, aligning with a European Union decision. This status grants access to healthcare, education, and employment. Long-term residence permits will be available for those in Czechia for over two years, provided they meet financial and housing criteria. The law also criminalizes unauthorized activities benefiting foreign states, with penalties of up to 15 years during martial law. Russian citizenship applicants must now renounce their nationality. Meanwhile, Czechia continues military aid to Ukraine, including a new artillery shell procurement initiative for 2025. Kyiv Independent

EU warns that Trump's sanctions against ICC threaten search for justice in Ukraine. The European Commission and European leaders condemned President Donald Trump’s sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC), warning they could obstruct war crimes investigations in Ukraine. Since 2022, the ICC has been probing Russian atrocities, issuing arrest warrants for six Kremlin officials, including President Vladimir Putin, who is accused of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the ICC’s independence, stressing its role in global justice. The sanctions could hinder ICC officials by restricting travel and financial access. The move follows the court’s arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom the ICC accuses of war crimes and crimes against humanity during Israel’s Gaza offensive. Trump called the ICC’s actions “illegitimate,” prompting Netanyahu’s praise. European leaders, including European Council President António Costa and Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp, denounced the sanctions as undermining international justice. The ICC urged its 125 member states to resist Trump's pressure. Euronews

Ukraine Feels The Shockwaves As USAID Cuts Start To Bite. The suspension of USAID funding is hitting Ukraine hard, with charities, businesses, and government agencies struggling to cope. Dostupno, a nonprofit aiding disabled war veterans, has suspended operations while contractors have been laid off. USAID has been crucial in Ukraine’s recovery since 2022, particularly in agriculture, providing seeds, fertilizers, and financial support. Farmers, like those represented by the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, warn that small and medium-sized enterprises will suffer without grants and consulting services. The funding freeze also affects Ukraine’s energy, health, and education ministries. USAID’s impact ranged from refugee shelters to energy stability projects. RFE/RL

Three killed, five injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed three civilians and wounded five over the past day, authorities reported on Feb. 7. In Kherson Oblast, shelling killed one person and injured five, damaging multiple buildings. In Sumy Oblast, a Russian strike destroyed an apartment building, killing two people whose bodies were recovered from the rubble. Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts saw extensive shelling, with hundreds of strikes damaging homes and infrastructure but no reported casualties. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 81 of 112 Shahed drones launched overnight. Kyiv Independent

ISW’s Sixth-Month Assessment of Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast over the past six months has complicated Russian military operations, diverting significant forces from priority battlefields. Roughly 30,000 Ukrainian troops have held positions, forcing Russia to amass 78,000 troops, including 11,000 North Koreans, to push them out. Ukraine leveraged surprise, rapid mechanized maneuver, and technological adaptations to exploit Russia’s weak border defenses, delaying Russian offensives elsewhere. The incursion disrupted Russian plans for advances in Sumy and northern Kharkiv, forcing Moscow to prioritize Kursk over Donetsk. While Russia has retaken 57% of the Ukrainian-held area, the operation demonstrated that Ukraine can regain battlefield initiative. Western military aid remains critical for Ukraine to maintain this pressure, while Russia’s ability to recover and advance depends on continued mobilization and industrial capacity. The war remains dynamic, and the future trajectory hinges on Ukraine’s ability to sustain pressure and Russia’s response to its shifting strategic realities. Institute for the Study of War

ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Feb. 6. Ukrainian forces launched mechanized assaults southeast of Sudzha, advancing up to five kilometers and capturing multiple settlements despite conflicting Russian claims. Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded elite Russian forces defending Kursk Oblast, underscoring that Ukraine’s incursion has tied down significant Russian military units since August 2024. A Kremlin-backed poll claims 67% of Russians support the war, though dissatisfaction grows over Ukrainian gains, slow advances, and economic strain. North Korea appears to be using the war to improve missile accuracy, with recent launches showing significantly better precision, likely aided by Russian technology. Ukraine targeted an air base in Krasnodar Krai, striking a key launch site for Russian Shahed drones and disrupting aircraft maintenance operations. France delivered Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, and the Netherlands supplied F-16s, reinforcing Ukraine’s air capabilities against Russian forces. Putin replaced the head of Roscosmos amid dissatisfaction over delays in military satellite projects, with new appointee Dmitry Bakanov linked to Russia’s satellite communications program. Moscow is expanding social benefits for military personnel, likely aiming to sustain recruitment and replenishment efforts amid ongoing losses.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Judge limits DOGE's Treasury access during federal employees' lawsuit. A federal judge’s order Thursday temporarily restricted Elon Musk’s team, the Department of Government Efficiency, from gaining access to sensitive Treasury payment system information.  U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly’s order limits access to data to just two Treasury Department employees affiliated with DOGE. They will have “read-only” access to the data. The lawsuit was brought by three federal employees unions to prevent DOGE representatives from accessing the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, which manages the U.S. government's accounting, central payment systems and public debt. A hitch developed Thursday when Marko Elez, 25, one of the two DOGE representatives permitted access, resigned suddenly after the Wall Street Journal asked the White House about social media posts he made including racist content.  (Among them, according to the Journal:  ““Just for the record, I was racist before it was cool.”  And, “Normalize Indian hate.”) DOGE, brought into Washington to cut government spending and streamline bureaucracy, has triggered several lawsuits over access to data and privacy of government workers.  Financial Times Axios  ABC News Wall Street Journal  

Elon Musk’s DOGE is feeding sensitive federal data into AI to target cuts. Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reportedly using AI to analyze spending at the Education Department, aiming to cut costs and shrink the agency. DOGE has fed sensitive financial and personnel data into AI software, raising concerns about data security and potential misuse. The initiative is part of a broader push to apply AI across federal agencies to identify spending reductions, particularly targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. Critics warn the approach lacks transparency and risks dismantling essential functions. Meanwhile, DOGE has expanded its reach, gaining access to sensitive health and labor data across other federal departments. Washington Post

US Spy World Worries It Will Be Next for Trump’s DOGE-Led Purges. The Trump administration’s drive to downsize the government and eliminate perceived disloyalty in government agencies has raised concerns that the intelligence community (IC) is next. The administration has pressured the FBI to disclose the names of agents linked to the Jan. 6 investigation and pushed CIA Director John Ratcliffe to cut staff. National security experts warn that pressure on intelligence officers to conform could suppress independent analysis, undermining objective assessments and U.S. security capabilities. Bloomberg

Donald Trump doubles down on his plan to hold, clear and rebuild Gaza.  President Donald Trump said Thursday on his Truth Social platform that he’s proposing that “at the conclusion of fighting,” Israel should turn over the Gaza Strip to the U.S., which would work with teams from “all over the world” to“slowly and carefully begin the construction of what would become one of the greatest and most spectacular developments of its kind on Earth.” He said no American troops would be needed to maintain stability.  By the time reconstruction started, he said, the Palestinian people “would have already been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region.” Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Fox News that the plan wasn’t to clear Gaza of Palestinians permanently. “The actual idea of allowing Gazans who want to leave to leave — I mean, what’s wrong with that?” he said. “They can leave, they can then come back.” Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, argued that countries like Spain and Norway, which have criticized Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza, should take in displaced Palestinians. Katz has also directed the Israeli military to start plans for the voluntary departure of Palestinians from Gaza. Egypt’s foreign ministry warned that the Israelis’ “irresponsible” statements could have “catastrophic consequences . . . weakening negotiations on a ceasefire agreement [in Gaza] and inciting a return to fighting.” Trump’s announcement came as Israel and Hamas were due to move to the second phase of their ceasefire agreement. Financial Times New York Times  Reuters  

Trump’s expulsions of FBI leaders have shaken the unshakeable bureau. The Trump administration has push senior officials out and is scrutinizing thousands more employees at the Justice Department and FBI. The administration has also signaled that more of the FBI must work on illegal immigration. Kash Patel, nominated to be the FBI director, is expected to deemphasize the bureau’s counterintelligence, counterterrorism,securities fraud, antitrust and other white collar crime programs and pivot to drug trafficking and violent street crime.   Wall Street Journal  

Panama denies U.S. claim that U.S. Navy will get free passage through the Panama Canal. On Wednesday night, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, the State Department posted on X that Panama had agreed to give U.S. Navy free passage through the canal.  On Thursday morning, Mulino declared that there was no such deal.  He excoriated the U.S. for making a statement full of “lies and falsehoods.” Panama is negotiating with the U.S. on several issues, but, the Wall Street Journal reported, the State Department statement was premature. Some officials think the U.S. statement was meant to trap Panama in a fait accompli. Trump and Mulino are expected to continue the talks Friday.  Wall Street Journal   

Trump says China ‘operates’ the Panama Canal – how deep are Beijing’s ties to the key waterway? Donald Trump has reignited concerns over Chinese influence in Panama, falsely claiming Beijing “operates” the Panama Canal and threatening U.S. intervention. While China does not control the canal, Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison operates two major ports at its entry points, drawing scrutiny from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called this “completely unacceptable.” Trump’s pressure has so far led Panama to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a setback for Beijing. Experts note that Chinese firms’ presence in the region could provide strategic leverage in a conflict, but U.S. dominance in Panama remains strong. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc dismissed concerns, stating drought affected canal operations more than Chinese influence. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry condemned U.S. “pressure and coercion” in Panama’s policy shift. Though Beijing remains interested in expanding its presence, analysts suggest it may prioritize projects with less political resistance, such as Peru’s Chancay mega-port over canal control. CNN

How Much Can 10,000 Mexican Troops Achieve at the Border? Mexico has agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to curb migration and drug smuggling, a move aimed at avoiding U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Analysts question its effectiveness, noting that most fentanyl enters the U.S. through legal border crossings and is trafficked primarily by American citizens. The deployment mirrors Trump’s first-term strategy but is seen as more symbolic than impactful. Experts argue that intelligence-sharing, rather than militarization, is key to combating organized crime. Mexican authorities say troops will patrol key border cities, but their specific role remains unclear. New York Times

Trump signs order imposing sanctions on International Criminal Court. Donald Trump imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to its arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over war crimes in Gaza. The executive order blocks ICC officials’ assets, bars them from entering the U.S., and targets those aiding investigations into American and allied personnel. Netanyahu welcomed the move, calling the ICC “anti-American and antisemitic.” The sanctions coincide with Netanyahu’s Washington visit, where Trump controversially proposed the U.S. “take over” Gaza and permanently displace its Palestinian population. Amnesty International condemned the order as undermining international justice, while other critics warned it could embolden war criminals. The ICC, which also issued warrants for Hamas leaders, defended its impartiality. Senate Democrats previously blocked a broader ICC sanctions bill, though some, like Chuck Schumer, support reforming the court. The move marks Trump’s second ICC sanctioning, following similar actions during his first term. Washington Post New York Times The Guardian CNN 

Trump administration disbands task force targeting Russian oligarchs. The Trump administration has disbanded Task Force KleptoCapture, which targeted Russian oligarchs and enforced sanctions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Attorney General Pam Bondi’s directive shifts resources to fighting drug cartels and gangs, ending the Justice Department’s focus on Russian sanctions enforcement. The task force had prosecuted oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska and Konstantin Malofeyev and seized yachts from Suleiman Kerimov and Viktor Vekselberg. While ongoing cases will continue, the pace of new Russia-related charges is expected to decline. Trump, who has pushed for improved relations with Moscow, has also refocused the Justice Department’s foreign bribery enforcement away from corporate corruption cases to investigations related to drug cartels. Critics call this a radical departure from longstanding policies. The shift aligns with Trump’s broader crackdown on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. The changes are set for 90 days but could be permanent, raising concerns about sanctions enforcement. Reuters

Gutting USAID threatens billions of dollars for U.S. farms and businesses. The Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID has disrupted billions in contracts for U.S. businesses, particularly American farms that supply 41% of its food aid. A 90-day freeze on foreign aid halted $340 million in shipments, stranding wheat, rice, and soybeans. Farmers face uncertainty amid rising costs and potential tariff impacts. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted lifesaving aid will continue, but confusion persists. Elon Musk, leading the push to shrink the government, called USAID a “criminal organization.” Experts warn that cutting USAID threatens not only global aid, but American jobs tied to these programs. Washington Post

Jobs at USAID will reportedly drop from more than 10,000 to about 290. The Trump administration is slashing the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) workforce from over 10,000 to just 290 positions, placing nearly all employees on indefinite leave. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, acting as USAID’s administrator, justified the cuts by citing employee “insubordination” but promised exemptions for some staff. The move halts around 800 aid contracts, disrupting global humanitarian programs. Two unions have sued Donald Trump, Rubio, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing the cuts are unconstitutional. Critics warn the decision cripples lifesaving aid, with only 12 staffers remaining for Africa. Many contractors also face immediate job losses. New York Times Washington Post

Strongmen celebrate as Trump aid freeze hits media. Donald Trump’s freeze on USAID funding has dealt a major blow to independent media in authoritarian states, with leaders like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán celebrating the move. The $40 billion agency, now largely shut down for a 90-day review, has been crucial in supporting media outlets countering state propaganda, particularly in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. “Putin has been trying to kill independent media for years. Ironically, the U.S. is now delivering the death blow,” said Derk Sauer, founder of The Moscow Times. In Hungary, investigative outlets like Átlátszó and Direkt36, reliant on USAID funding for research into corruption, fear collapse. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which exposed financial crimes in Eastern Europe, lost a quarter of its budget. “The short-term impact is brutal,” said OCCRP co-founder Paul Radu. Trump amplified conspiracy theories about USAID funds supporting “fake news,” while authoritarian leaders accused the agency of fueling dissent. Observers warn that even if funding resumes, it may come too late. Financial Times

ANALYSIS–Reviewing the White House’s claims about USAID spending. The White House's claims justifying the dismantling of USAID are largely inaccurate, with The Washington Post highlighting 11 out of 12 examples as misleading, false, or lacking context. The administration accused the agency of funding wasteful and harmful projects, but many cited grants that were small, misattributed, or initiated under previous administrations. Several claims involved State Department, not USAID, funding, while others distorted project goals, such as alleging U.S. support for Afghan poppy farming or funding sex changes in Guatemala. The move reflects the Trump administration’s broader effort to curtail foreign aid despite USAID’s longstanding role in U.S. diplomacy and global development. Washington Post

US border czar says leaks hobbled immigration raids in Colorado.  Donald Trump’s border czar blamed leaks for hindering a large-scale operation in Aurora, where the president has linked violent crime to immigration. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, told reporters Thursday that details of the operation had been leaked, putting officers at risk. Media reports leading up to the raids said they were imminent. It was unclear how many gang members were arrested. Associated Press 

ANALYSIS–Canada Is Merely First in Line. Donald Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada nearly sparked a trade war this week, with Ottawa announcing retaliatory measures before securing a 30-day pause. In exchange, Canada pledged to increase border security efforts, particularly against illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. While the immediate crisis was averted, Trump’s use of economic coercion against an ally signals a shift in U.S. foreign policy, treating even close partners as adversaries. His zero-sum approach prioritizes short-term economic leverage over strategic stability, raising concerns in Europe and Asia, where Trump has also warned of tariffs. This shift may benefit U.S. adversaries like China and Russia, who seek to exploit divisions among Western allies. While Trump’s pressure for increased defense spending has some merit, his transactional diplomacy risks undermining long-standing alliances. Canada and other U.S. allies must adapt by bolstering defense capabilities, diversifying trade partnerships, and reducing reliance on American security guarantees in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Foreign Affairs

Trump meeting Japan's Ishiba as China trade war simmers. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, becoming the first Asian leader to do so in Trump’s second term. The summit is critical for reinforcing the U.S.-Japan alliance as tensions rise with China and North Korea. Ishiba, facing a weakened political position after his party’s parliamentary loss, must navigate Trump’s transactional diplomacy while seeking assurances that the U.S. will uphold its defense commitments. Japan is expected to offer economic concessions, including increased investment in the U.S. and collaboration on artificial intelligence. With Trump’s unpredictable stance on tariffs, Ishiba hopes to avoid trade disputes that could harm Japan’s economy. Unlike his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, who bonded with Trump over golf, Ishiba is more reserved. “Now we’re in a stage of damage control,” said Ryo Sahashi of the University of Tokyo. “What the government wants is to maintain this level, or at least not have a sharp downward trend.” Reuters Washington Post New York Times The Guardian  

More Kenyan officers land in Haiti to bolster security mission. A contingent of 144 Kenyan police officers arrived in Port-au-Prince on Thursday to reinforce a struggling U.N.-backed security mission aimed at combating Haiti’s violent gangs, which control most of the city and other key regions, and use weapons largely smuggled from the U.S. The mission has faced uncertainty after the White House froze $13 million in funding under President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on foreign aid, raising concerns that it could be shut down entirely. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in the Dominican Republic, acknowledged that the mission alone would not resolve Haiti’s security crisis, emphasizing that the solution must come from Haitians themselves. Despite funding challenges, Rubio later approved waivers for $40.7 million in foreign assistance to the Haitian National Police and the security force, though the funds will not go directly into the U.N.'s fund. Reuters Associated Press France 24 VOA

EUROPE

Europe’s Trump Playbook: Offer Carrots but Warn That You Have a Big Stick. The European Union has been preparing for a potential trade dispute with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, developing a secret strategy to counter tariffs while avoiding an all-out trade war. The approach involves offering incentives, such as increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas and defense products while preparing targeted retaliation if necessary. The EU may hit politically sensitive industries in Republican states and is considering using a new legal tool to impose tariffs on major U.S. tech companies. Trump has threatened tariffs, demanding Europe buy more American goods, but EU officials stress that escalating tensions would harm both sides. Brussels has struggled to engage directly with Washington, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not met with EU foreign ministers. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that while the EU prefers cooperation, “we will always protect our own interests—however and whenever that is needed.” New York Times

In retaliation against the CIA, Russia's spies urge Americans to get in touch. Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) released an English-language video urging “true American patriots” to reach out via secure channels, portraying the U.S. and Russia as historical allies while criticizing American support for Ukraine. The video, which parodies CIA recruitment efforts, highlights U.S.-Soviet cooperation in World War II before shifting to grim images of the Ukraine war. It mocks the CIA’s attempts to recruit Russians as “clumsy” and claims Washington’s actions are undermining global stability. The SVR provides a TOR network address for anonymous contact, positioning itself as an alternative voice for Americans who disagree with U.S. policy. The timing of the video aligns with speculation about a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, with a senior Russian lawmaker suggesting preparations are in “advanced stages.” The SVR, a successor to the KGB, has a history of recruiting high-profile U.S. spies, including Robert Hanssen and Aldrich Ames.  Reuters 

Baltic nations count the final hours to ending electricity ties to Russia. The Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—will disconnect from Russia’s electricity grid this weekend, completing their energy shift to the European Union. The move, accelerated by Russia’s war on Ukraine, severs the last Soviet-era energy link. The transition includes a 24-hour “island operation mode” before full synchronization with Europe’s power grid. Concerns over Russian retaliation persist, with officials warning of cyber threats and propaganda efforts. Despite past Russian energy pressure, Lithuania says it now has ample capacity from renewables. Leaders view the disconnection as a geopolitical milestone, reinforcing their independence from Moscow’s influence. EU leaders will attend a countdown ceremony on Sunday. Associated Press

Norway no ‘war profiteer’, says Jens Stoltenberg. Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s new finance minister and former NATO secretary-general, rejected claims that Norway is a “war profiteer” for selling record oil and gas to Europe after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He argued that Norwegian gas—now 30% of the European Union’s supply—helped offset the loss of Russian imports. “European countries recognized the importance of Norwegian gas to mitigate the consequences of the cut-off of Russian gas,” he said. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Norway faces pressure to strengthen EU ties amid fears of a U.S.-Europe trade war. Stoltenberg, known as “the Trump whisperer,” pledged to prevent conflict but said Norway would work with the EU if tariffs arise. His return has revived Labour’s political fortunes ahead of elections, but Oslo remains hesitant on some EU energy rules. Financial Times

Britain revokes accreditation of Russian diplomat in tit-for-tat expulsion. Britain revoked the accreditation of a Russian diplomat on Thursday in response to Moscow’s expulsion of a British official last year over spying allegations. The Foreign Office summoned Russian Ambassador Andrey Kelin, calling Moscow’s move “unprovoked and baseless.” London warned that further Russian actions would be seen as escalation. Diplomatic relations between Russia and NATO allies remain at their lowest since the Cold War, with both sides engaging in tit-for-tat expulsions since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Associated Press 

Auditors say an EU fund to help troops move quickly is too small and poorly managed. The European Union’s military mobility fund, created in 2022 to speed troop and equipment movement, is too small and poorly managed, auditors said Wednesday. The €1.7 billion ($1.8 billion) fund is a fraction of the €300 billion ($312 billion) EU members spent on defense last year. Bureaucratic delays, misallocated funds, and lack of strategy hinder effectiveness, with some countries receiving little or no funding. Auditors criticized rushed planning and unclear leadership. The European Commission defended its actions but pledged to improve coordination. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, NATO warns delays could threaten Europe’s future security. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran’s supreme leader rules out talks with Donald Trump. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out negotiations with President Donald Trump’s administration. On Friday, he called talks “neither wise, nor prudent, nor dignified.” He cited the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and warned, “If they threaten us, we will threaten them.” Trump recently revived “maximum pressure” sanctions while proposing a “verified nuclear agreement.” Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian had signaled openness to talks, but Khamenei criticized past negotiators for being “too generous.” Analysts believe Iran seeks to avoid appearing weak as Trump targets Iran’s regional influence. “Trump has big plans for the Middle East, and Iran cannot afford concessions,” one analyst said. Khamenei emphasized Iran’s missile program and regional alliances remain non-negotiable. While backing Pezeshkian’s efforts to ease economic hardships, he avoided mentioning U.S. sanctions, which have hit Iran’s 85 million people hard. His remarks clarify that Tehran will not engage with Trump’s administration under current conditions. Financial Times

Syria’s defense minister says new administration open to permitting Russia to keep its bases.  Syria’s newly formed government, led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is reassessing its alliances and military strategies in the wake of Bashar al-Assad fall from power in December. Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, a former rebel leader, stated recently that Syria is open to allowing Russia to maintain its air and naval bases in Tartus and Latakia if the agreement benefits Damascus. In spite of Russia’s previous attacks against Syrian insurgents, and its support of Assad, the future could hold ties; “in politics,” Abu Qasra said, “there are no permanent enemies.” While relations with Moscow have improved, negotiations over Assad’s extradition remain uncertain, and Damascus is undoubtedly determined to hold the former president accountable. Syria is also in talks with Turkey and the U.S. regarding the status of their military bases. Turkey may reduce or redistribute troops, while discussions continue over the U.S. presence in the northeast. The government seeks a diplomatic solution with the Kurdish-led SDF, rejecting their offer to merge as a unified bloc but aiming to bring their territory under Damascus' control. Abu Qasra is leading a monumental effort to unify Syria’s shattered armed factions under a single military command, with many groups already agreeing to integration. Some, like Ahmad al-Awda’s faction in the south, remain resistant. As Syria navigates its new political and military landscape, stability remains uncertain. Washington Post

Iran condemns new U.S. shipping-related sanctions. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on a network of individuals and firms in China, India, and the United Arab Emirates accused of enabling Iranian oil shipments to China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran uses oil revenues to fund its nuclear program and regional proxies. President Donald Trump vowed to bring Iran’s crude exports to zero, signing an executive order to intensify pressure. Iran condemned the sanctions as “illegitimate and unlawful,” warning of consequences. Despite tensions, Tehran appears to be awaiting signals from Trump on potential negotiations over its rapidly advancing nuclear program. Reuters Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury 

Iran inaugurates its first drone-carrier warship. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have commissioned their first drone-carrier warship, the Shahid Beheshti, repurposed from a commercial vessel. The ship features a 180-meter runway for drones and helicopters, carries cruise missiles, and can operate without refueling for up to a year. Its launch comes amid Iranian military exercises and rising tensions with the U.S. and Israel under President Donald Trump. Iran's leaders say the warship strengthens deterrence, though they insist they seek no conflict. State media broadcast footage of helicopters and drones aboard, underscoring Iran’s efforts to expand its naval reach and military self-sufficiency. Associated Press Reuters  

Rubio is planning a Middle East trip.  U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Israel and several Arab states in mid-February following President Donald Trump’s widely condemned proposal to displace Palestinians in Gaza. Rubio will attend the Munich Security Conference before traveling to Israel, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Arab nations have strongly rejected Trump’s suggestion, warning against forced relocation. A senior U.S. official said Rubio aims to challenge the regional status quo, arguing, “things can change.” Palestinian and Arab leaders have demanded inclusion in Gaza’s reconstruction, while Jordan’s foreign minister is set to raise concerns in meetings with U.S. officials in Washington.  Reuters Times of Israel Axios

Israel's army conducts a strike in Lebanese territory on two military sites. The Israel army said in a statement early on Friday that it conducted a strike in Lebanese territory on two military sites that contained Hezbollah weapons. There comes amid an ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Reuters  

U.S. Aircraft Carrier Leaves Red Sea as Houthis Pause Attacks. The USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group has left the Red Sea for Europe after two months of combat operations, following the Houthis’ announcement of a pause in their attacks on vessels. While some U.S. and U.K. ships have resumed transit, most commercial vessels continue detouring around Africa. The Houthis’ partial halt came in response to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, though shipping industry leaders remain cautious. The carrier group had conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and airstrikes against ISIS in Somalia before departing. The first LNG carrier since September is now heading for the Red Sea. Bloomberg

ASIA & OCEANIA

ANALYSIS–China’s Trump Strategy.  Since Donald Trump’s return to office, China has been preparing for an escalation in trade and geopolitical tensions, but its strategy extends beyond retaliation. Beijing swiftly imposed counter-tariffs and export restrictions after Trump’s new 10% tariff on all Chinese goods but recognizes its limits in a direct economic standoff. Instead, China is bolstering its domestic economy with stimulus measures and expanding ties with the Global South to bypass U.S. restrictions. Beijing is also improving relations with Japan and India to reduce regional friction. Viewing Trump’s approach as short-term disruption, China aims to outlast his presidency while positioning itself as a dominant global power. Beijing assumes that U.S. policies will erode Washington’s influence, allowing China to gain ground. Rather than engaging in an immediate confrontation, China’s long-term strategy is to weather Trump’s presidency and emerge stronger. Foreign Affairs

As tensions simmer in disputed waters, Chinese military branches begin sharing resources in joint air training. China’s PLA Eastern Theatre Command has enhanced joint air training across the army, navy, and air force to improve combat coordination near Taiwan and the East China Sea. According to an article published by military mouthpiece PLA Daily, military branches now share infrastructure, resources, and information across training sites, with multiple aircraft types operating together. Nearly 70% of personnel at one airbase have been trained in multi-aircraft support roles to improve operational flexibility. Joint maritime operations have expanded, allowing army helicopters to land on naval vessels for resupply. New combat tactics, shared airbases, and joint command structures are being developed. The Central Military Commission has called for faster modernization and integration of networked information systems for joint warfare. Last April, China established the Information Support Force to coordinate military data-sharing. These efforts reflect the country’s increasing focus on joint military readiness amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. South China Morning Post 

Philippines aircraft crash kills U.S. service member, three contractors. Officials said a small airplane contracted by the Pentagon crashed in the southern Philippines on Thursday, killing all four people on board, including a U.S. military member. The Beechcraft King Air 300 went down in a rice field in Ampatuan, Maguindanao del Sur, while traveling from Cebu Province to Cotabato City. According to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the aircraft was on a routine mission supporting U.S.-Philippine security cooperation and was conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations at the request of the Philippine government. The names of the victims have not yet been released. Manila is the U.S.'s oldest treaty ally in Asia, and American troops have long been stationed in Mindanao, helping train Philippine forces in counterterrorism. In 2017, U.S. Special Forces assisted in the battle against Islamic State-linked militants in Marawi City. New York Times Associated Press Reuters CBS 

Tensions rise in Bangladesh as interim government struggles with fallout from Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Bangladesh’s new interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and backed by the military, is struggling to address economic instability and human rights issues following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina six months ago. Hasina fled to India in August after a student-led uprising ended her 15-year rule, and she now faces criminal charges over the deaths of protesters. New Delhi has ignored calls for her extradition, while her party, the Awami League, faces ongoing repression. The interim government has established six commissions to reform sectors like electoral systems and governance, but opposition groups demand urgent elections before implementing long-term reforms. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has called for an early vote, while Islamist groups are gaining influence amid the political chaos. Concerns over media suppression, human rights violations, and attacks on minorities have also surfaced, despite government denials. While the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami push for elections, Yunus has promised to hold a vote either in December or June next year. The situation remains volatile, with uncertainty over Bangladesh’s political future. Associated Press 

Pakistan to Force Tens of Thousands of Afghan Refugees Out of the Capital. Pakistan has ordered tens of thousands of Afghan refugees to leave Islamabad and Rawalpindi by March 31, increasing pressure on Western nations to accept them. The move follows President Donald Trump’s suspension of U.S. refugee admissions, leaving 15,000 Afghans—many of whom worked for U.S.-backed organizations—stranded. Pakistan has warned that refugees unable to resettle elsewhere will be deported to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, where human rights groups fear they could face persecution. Afghan refugees report rising police harassment and detentions, with over 800 deported from the capital this year. “It seems the U.S. has abandoned us,” said former Afghan journalism student Sara Ahmadi. New York Times

AFRICA

Fighting Intensifies in Sudan, Leaving Hundreds Dead.  Fighting in Sudan has intensified, with hundreds killed in recent days as the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) battle for territory. The conflict, nearing its third year, has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions, and pushed parts of the country toward famine. The army has regained strategic sites, including a key oil refinery, while RSF forces continue their assaults, particularly in Darfur and Omdurman. Civilian casualties are mounting, with hospitals and markets hit by shelling. UNICEF reported 40 children were killed in three days. Calls for United Nations peacekeepers are growing, but both sides remain determined to fight on. New York Times

‘Liberated and sanitized:’ M23 rebels attempt to reassure residents of Congo’s Goma. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who recently seized the key city of Goma in Congo’s restive east, held a rally on Thursday to reassure residents of their safety and to promise security. At a stadium in the provincial capital, M23 political chief Corneille Nangaa told thousands of gathered individuals that the city had been “liberated and sanitized,” and that new administrative leaders have been appointed. He stressed that security for the ravaged city, a critical humanitarian hub, was the rebel coalition’s “priority,” and that children could return to school soon. The U.N. Secretary-General urged the militants to disarm and seek mediation, warning of worsening humanitarian conditions. Despite announcing a unilateral ceasefire earlier this week, triumphant insurgents continued their military advances on Thursday, pushing further into South Kivu province, near the city of Bukavu, and causing fear and displacement among residents. Meanwhile, a high-security medical lab in Goma has been disrupted, raising concerns about controlling infectious diseases. Though South Africa has committed to keeping its troops in the region, Malawi has begun preparing for the withdrawal of its peacekeepers. Associated Press 

Sources say over 150 women raped, burned to death in brutal Congo jailbreak. During a devastating jailbreak in Goma, east Congo’s largest city, over 150 female prisoners were raped and burned to death after male inmates set fire to Muzenze prison. According to a U.N. spokesperson, at least 165 women were raped, with only a few survivors. The escape occurred on January 27 as M23 rebels clashed with Congolese forces for control of the city. Though prison guards killed some inmates, over 4,000 detainees managed to flee, leaving the prison in ruins. The Congolese government strongly condemned the mass rape and killings, which reflect ongoing conflict-related sexual violence in the country. Additionally, the U.N. reported alleged rapes by Congolese troops in South Kivu, with 52 women reportedly assaulted. CNN BBC NBC The Guardian 

South Africa’s Ramaphosa says nation 'will not be bullied,' after Trump comments. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday declared that his country "will not be bullied" in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to cut funding over South Africa's land reform law. Trump, without citing evidence, claimed the law unfairly targets “certain classes of people.” In his state of the nation address, Ramaphosa did not mention Trump directly but criticized rising nationalism and protectionism, vowing to defend South Africa’s national interests. The country also faced criticism from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who refused to attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg and accused Pretoria of using the platform to promote global equality and sustainability. As the first African nation to lead the G20, South Africa aims to advocate for the continent as well as the Global South. Reuters Deutsche Welle Associated Press

Islamic State under assault by Puntland advance in Somalia. Islamic State (IS) has found itself beset by armed forces from Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region, who have captured significant territory from the group during a major weeks-long offensive. The operation has targeted strongholds in the Golis Mountains, where IS has maintained control for years. The offensive follows recent U.S. airstrikes, the first under President Donald Trump’s administration, aimed at weakening IS in Somalia. Since the end of December, Puntland security forces have reclaimed 250 square kilometers, including 50 IS bases. In battles over the past few days, they have killed at least 85 militants, though 17 soldiers also died. The IS faction in Somalia, estimated to have 700 to 1,500 fighters, has grown in importance within the global network, partly due to an influx of foreign fighters and extortion revenues. Puntland’s government, which no longer recognizes Somalia’s federal government, is calling for more international support, including military hardware and counter-drone technology. The U.S. has periodically conducted airstrikes and trained Puntland forces, and some analysts suggest Washington may strengthen ties with the region rather than rely on Mogadishu, which is seen as weak in counterterrorism efforts. While Puntland operates independently, Somalia’s federal government insists on maintaining security coordination with “relevant stakeholders.” However, the offensive highlights growing tensions between Puntland and Mogadishu over counterterrorism strategy. Reuters

Rising threat: IS-Somalia’s expansion and the struggle for control in Puntland. The Islamic State (IS) faction in Somalia has become a growing concern as it strengthens its presence in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in the country. The group operates from the remote Golis Mountains and has been gaining influence within IS’s global network. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, recently conducted airstrikes against IS targets in Somalia, marking the first major military action of his new administration. Trump declared success, claiming to have eliminated militants and their caves while avoiding civilian casualties. IS-Somalia continues to grow in importance, with reports suggesting its leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, could be the global head of IS. The group is also believed to have links with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and is actively recruiting foreign fighters, particularly from Ethiopia and North Africa. Beyond military expansion, IS-Somalia has also become a key financial hub for IS operations across Africa, raising nearly $2 million in six months by taxing businesses, imports, and farmers. Experts warn that IS-Somalia poses a broader threat, not only to Africa but also to the West. The group is believed to be capable of facilitating attacks outside the continent. Analysts stress that continued and consistent international efforts, particularly from the U.S., are necessary to weaken IS-Somalia’s growing influence. BBC    

Ambush results in the deaths of at least 10 soldiers in Niger. Gunmen ambushed a military unit in western Niger, killing at least 10 soldiers during an operation to capture cattle rustlers near the Burkina Faso border, Niger’s ruling junta announced. The attackers escaped, but the military later "neutralized" 15 suspected terrorists on Tuesday. Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have struggled with jihadist insurgencies linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for over a decade. After recent military coups, the three nations expelled French forces and formed the Alliance of Sahel States, turning to Russian mercenaries for security. However, analysts warn that the security situation has worsened, with escalating attacks and civilian casualties. Similar assaults have occurred in the region, including an ambush in December that left 10 soldiers dead and an attack by Islamic State Sahel Province that killed 21 bus passengers near the Burkina Faso border. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Big Tech lines up over $300 billion in AI spending for 2025. Big Tech is set to spend over $300 billion on artificial intelligence in 2025, with Amazon leading at $100 billion. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are also ramping up investments despite investor concerns over profitability. Spending surged 63% in 2024, reaching $246 billion, and could surpass $320 billion this year. Market reactions have been mixed—Microsoft and Alphabet lost $200 billion in value amid disappointing cloud growth, while Meta’s AI-driven ad targeting boosted investor confidence. The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese startup offering low-cost AI models, has fueled skepticism about the sustainability of these investments. Nvidia’s stock plunged 17% in response to the DeepSeek surge. Google CEO Sundar Pichai defended AI spending as an unmatched opportunity, while Microsoft’s Satya Nadella vowed to push forward. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s Sam Altman is securing funding for AI infrastructure, with SoftBank and Oracle potentially investing $100 billion. Despite AI bubble fears, Silicon Valley remains committed to dominating the evolving AI landscape. Financial Times

Traders See Profits Evaporate in Minutes as Trump Convulses Bets. Traders are scrambling to adapt as Donald Trump’s trade war policies trigger market volatility, forcing investors to shorten positions, hedge aggressively, and adjust strategies across multiple asset classes. Foreign-exchange options trading has surged, with volatility in Asian stocks reaching multi-year highs. Bond traders face uncertainty over potential inflation spikes and a shifting Federal Reserve outlook. Equity investors struggle with costly hedging as tariffs, concerns over Chinese AI, and earnings season drive uncertainty. Short-term trades now dominate, with some positions lasting less than 24 hours. Adjusting to rapid swings, hedge funds prioritize market reactivity over directional bets. Bloomberg

Bessent Projects Normalcy While ‘Completely Aligned’ With Musk.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to project stability amid economic turbulence, defending the administration’s fiscal policies while aligning with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In a Bloomberg interview, Bessent reassured that DOGE’s access to Treasury systems is limited and safe, despite concerns over its potential insight into taxpayer data. He emphasized that the administration’s cost-cutting efforts will yield “gigantic savings” and dismissed fears of politicization. However, just hours later, a key DOGE staffer resigned after being linked to racist social media posts. Bessent maintained that tariffs won’t drive inflation, defended the strong dollar policy, and stated that the Treasury would not interfere with the Federal Reserve. While Trump’s new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada aim to rebalance trade, Bessent downplayed inflation risks, suggesting only a “one-time price adjustment.” He also stressed that U.S. trade policy would counter currency manipulation by foreign governments. Bloomberg

Europe Hobbled by Broken Markets as Trump Amps Up the Pressure. Europe’s capital markets are struggling to compete with the U.S., prompting companies to consider listing in New York instead of London. European firms face lower valuations, fragmented financial systems, and limited access to funding, pushing them toward U.S. exchanges where stocks trade at a 60% premium. Brexit, regulatory hurdles, and risk-averse investors further weaken European markets, while U.S. deregulation under President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy adds pressure. Despite efforts to reform, including the European Union Listing Act and UK market reforms, Europe’s lack of financial integration threatens economic growth and innovation, trailing behind the U.S. and China. Bloomberg

Worries arise over the U.K.'s AI ambitions and potential water shortages. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan to position the U.K. as a leader in AI has raised concerns about the strain on the country's drinking water supply. AI-driven data centers require significant amounts of water for cooling, which could exacerbate existing water shortages, particularly in southern England. While the tech industry is developing more efficient cooling methods, the government acknowledges sustainability challenges.  Some data centers are planned near areas facing water shortages, including locations where new reservoirs are being built, and experts warn that large-scale data centers can consume millions of liters of water daily, similar to a town’s usage. The Royal Academy of Engineering urges stricter sustainability measures, including mandatory reporting of water and energy use. Although some companies are improving efficiency through closed-loop and alternative cooling methods, critics argue that the government's approach lacks clarity on how AI expansion will avoid long-term water shortages. The Environment Agency stresses that data centers must plan their own water consumption strategies and explore water reuse to mitigate risks. BBC

Massive surge in data breaches: over 5 billion accounts were compromised in 2024. The number of compromised accounts in 2024 surged eightfold compared to the previous year, reaching over five billion breaches, up from 730 million in 2023, according to cybersecurity firm Surfshark. This means nearly 180 accounts were breached every second. A single breach in September 2024 was responsible for a significant portion of the increase, exposing over three billion unique email addresses on an underground crime forum. Another major breach in February affected 120 million individuals and originated from DemandScience, a B2B data company that collects full names, addresses, phone numbers, and social media links. The most affected countries were Russia, with 790 million compromised accounts, followed by the United States with 310 million, China with 160 million, Germany with 110 million, and France with 100 million. In total, 46 percent of all breaches occurred in just three countries: China, Russia, and the United States. China, which ranked 12th in 2023, rose to become one of the most affected countries in 2024. Breach rates were highest in China with 1,800 breaches per minute, followed by Russia with 1,700 per minute, and the United States with 1,300 per minute. Europe had the highest data breach density, with Russia experiencing 6,400 breaches per 1,000 people, followed by France with 2,300 and the United States with over 2,000. The sharp rise in breaches highlights growing cybersecurity risks, as personal data becomes an increasingly valuable target for cybercriminals worldwide. Cybernews Surfshark 

Hacker behind attacks on NATO, U.S. army detained by Spanish police. Spanish officials on Wednesday announced the arrest of an 18-year-old hacker responsible for multiple cyberattacks on government institutions in Spain and the U.S. The suspect, apprehended by the Spanish National Police in Calpe, is accused of hacking systems belonging to the U.S. Army, United Nations, NATO, and various Spanish institutions, including the Ministry of Defense and the Civil Guard. The hacker, who operated under different pseudonyms on dark web forums, allegedly accessed and leaked sensitive data before being tracked down through an investigation that began in February 2024. Authorities seized computer equipment and discovered over 50 cryptocurrency accounts in his possession. The arrest was part of a joint operation involving the Civil Guard, EUROPOL, and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations. The suspect had evaded detection by using anonymous messaging applications, but law enforcement was able to trace his activities, particularly after cyberattacks in December. He had also claimed responsibility for an attack on the International Civil Aviation Organization, confirmed when stolen data appeared on BreachForums. The suspect was released after a court appearance, and his passport was confiscated. The Record Forbes Cybernews  Security Week Stars and Stripes  

Italian government reports Paragon spyware attacks on victims in dozens of European nations. A broad hacking campaign using spyware targeted seven Italians and victims across more than a dozen European countries, according to WhatsApp. Italy’s Agenzia per la Cybersicurezza Nazionale (ANC) is investigating the alleged hacking attempts, which have been linked to Paragon Solutions, a commercial surveillance firm. The Italian government has adamantly denied any involvement, stating that intelligence agencies had not monitored journalists or other individuals. Victims include an investigative journalist who has written about Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right party, a migrant advocate, and a Libyan activist based in Sweden. Paragon subsequently terminated its client relationship with Rome, with one source saying Italy had violated the terms of the firm’s contract with the government, which does not permit the targeting of journalists or members of civil society. WhatsApp lawyers provided information on the affected locations, revealing that victims’ phone numbers were tied to Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Austria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. Paragon Solutions' spyware, a zero-click commercial surveillance tool, was used in the attack. While Paragon claims its clients include the U.S. government and its allies, it did not specify which countries were involved. WhatsApp said the attack exploited a malicious PDF file but assured users that it had blocked the attack vector.  The Record The Guardian BBC 

Putin sacks Yuri Borisov, chief of Russian space agency. Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Yuri Borisov as head of the space agency Roscosmos, replacing him with Dmitry Bakanov, a former deputy transport minister. The move comes as Moscow’s space program struggles to keep up with global competitors. Despite past achievements, Roscosmos has faced setbacks, including the failed Luna-25 moon landing in 2023, where India succeeded instead.

On Thursday, government spokesman Dmitry Peskov asserted that the Kremlin had no issues with Borisov, and that his removal was part of a "rotation.” Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, cooperation with Western space agencies has declined, with the Kremlin pulling out of European projects and considering an early exit from the International Space Station. However, Russia has strengthened space ties with North Korea and is a junior partner in China’s lunar base program. U.S. intelligence has raised concerns about Moscow potentially placing nuclear weapons in orbit. Borisov had only led Roscosmos since 2022, replacing Dmitry Rogozin, a close Putin ally known for his public clashes with Elon Musk. Politico EU Space.com Reuters The Moscow Times 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.