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Friday, February 17, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden to Discuss Spy Balloon Incident with China’s Xi.  President Joe Biden said Thursday that he will speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the recently downed Chinese spy balloon.  Biden says he has no regrets about shooting down the balloon and that he hasn’t apologized to Xi about the decision and does not intend to.  Referring to the other three aerial objects recently shot down across North America, Biden says they are still being studied but that initial investigations suggest they were privately-owned balloons that were not conducting surveillance.  Biden called on the US intelligence community to more strongly assess unidentified aerial craft and said that his administration will work to better detect, track and regulate unmanned objects in US airspace.  BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters South China Morning Post 

Pentagon Seeks to Boost Ammunition Production to Fulfill Ukraine Demands.  CNN is out with a report on how the Pentagon is pushing the US defense industry to boost ammunition production on a near war-footing to supply Ukraine’s military amid Russia’s invasion.  The report says the Pentagon has allocated $3 billion to buy munitions from overseas and increase domestic production.  Production goals include increasing artillery shell production by 500%, doubling the production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, and producing at least 60 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles a month.  Pentagon sources say they are working to sign longer-term defense contracts and coordinate with allies to achieve these targets.  The ramped up production comes as Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than its Western allies can make them.  The challenge is compounded by the need for the US to replenish its own stockpiles which have been depleted from the Ukraine war.  The US must also contend with increased orders from other allies who are concerned about their own defenses in response to the conflict.  CNN

US Watchdogs Seeking to Deploy Aid Monitors to Ukraine.  US inspectors from the Pentagon, State Department and US Agency for International Development told The Wall Street Journal that they will push to send around 177 auditors and monitors to Ukraine to track the over $110 billion in US military and economic aid given to Kyiv.  The agencies said they have conducted oversight of the aid remotely so far, but are now seeking an on-the-ground presence for more comprehensive monitoring.  They added that while they have not seen evidence of any fraud or abuse involving the aid, stronger oversight is needed given the sheer scale and diversity of assistance and growing skepticism in the US to continue aid.  Wall Street Journal

JFK Airport Terminal Power Outage Disrupts Travel.  New York City’s John F. Kennedy International Airport has closed a terminal after a small fire caused electrical disruptions that began on Thursday.  The incident has disrupted travel for thousands of passengers.  The Port Authority says it is working to restore flight operations at the terminal as quickly as possible.  The incident is the latest in a surge of airline disruptions that has affected hundreds of thousands of travelers in Europe and the US.  Lufthansa airlines says a labor union strike has forced it to cancel over 1000 flights, just two days after electrical issues disrupted Lufthansa operations at the Frankfurt airport and as a wave of apparent distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks crippled several smaller German airports this week.  CNBC New York Times Reuters

Canada Deploying Naval Vessels to Haiti.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday that he is deploying two Royal Canadian Navy vessels to Haiti in the coming weeks.  He said the vessels will focus on intelligence-gathering operations to assist the Haitian police alongside Canadian surveillance aircraft deployed last month.  Defense Post Deutsche Welle Reuters

Western Europe

Munich Security Conference to Cover Ukraine, US-China Tensions.  The Munich Security Conference kicks off on Friday.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are scheduled to attend.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will also be there to represent Ukraine.  Officials say the Ukraine war and Kyiv’s calls for more military aid will top the event’s agenda.  There is also speculation that the high-level delegations from the US and China may meet to discuss tensions following the spy balloon incident.  Stay tuned for more coverage.  Foreign Policy France 24

China’s Top Diplomat Visits France, Italy.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi began a European tour this week with visits to France and Italy.  During his visits, Wang said China is open to resuming dialogues with Europe to address consequences from the Ukraine war and other global issues like climate change.  He also promoted the Belt and Road Initiative to boost economic and cultural cooperation.  In Paris, Wang agreed with French diplomats to strengthen communication and develop a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between France and China.  In Rome, Wang met with Italy’s foreign ministry and discussed ways to expand on previous Belt and Road cooperation and strengthen economic ties.  Wang is set to deliver a speech at the Munich Security Conference and will later visit Hungary and Russia as part of his Europe trip.  Associated Press South China Morning Post

UK Jails Embassy Guard for Spying for Russia. A UK court sentenced David Ballantyne Smith, a former security guard at the UK Embassy in Berlin, to 13 years and two months in prison for giving intelligence to Russia during his time as a security guard. Smith pleaded guilty to eight charges in August 2021 after a sting operation uncovered that he had been passing sensitive information to General Major Sergey Chukhrov, the Russian military attachè to Berlin.  Deutsche Welle The Guardian

US, Europe Take Aggressive Action to Cripple Russian Spy Networks.  The Washington Post is out with a report on how the US and Europe have been successfully countering Russian espionage campaigns in Europe.  Security officials say that Western efforts in the past year have damaged Russian spy agencies the most since the end of the Cold War.  Russian intelligence has reportedly been largely caught off guard by the counter espionage operations, reducing its ability to conduct influence and surveillance operations in Europe.  European officials warn that Moscow is now shifting to more cyberespionage to make up for losses to spy networks.  Washington Post

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023. Institute for the Study of War

Wagner Head Predicts Bakhmut to Fall to Russia by April.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, told Russian media that he predicts the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut will fall to Russia by April.  Prigozhin said the specific timing will depend on Ukrainian resistance and new deliveries of military aid.  He added that Russia’s “monstrous military bureaucracy” has prevented Russia from taking Bakhmut earlier.  He also warned Moscow against underestimating Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut by describing them as “surrounded” when they are not.  His assessment that Russia will soon take the embattled city comes after months of brutal fighting that analysts say has resulted in incremental gains for the Russian military.  A Ukrainian military officer near the Bakhmut front line told Reuters that he thinks it is not “sustainable” for Russia to keep sending so many forces to Bakhmut, and added that there are places where the bodies of Russian troops “are just piled up.”  Newsweek Reuters

Zelenskiy Rejects Any Peace Deal with Territorial Concession.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a BBC interview on Thursday that he will never give up Ukrainian territory in a potential peace deal with Russia.  He said that Ukraine is fighting for its survival and that territorial concessions would make Ukraine weaker.  He noted that it is not about a resistance to compromise, but due to a lack of trust with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Zelenskiy added that he thinks a Russian spring offensive has already begun, but he said Ukraine can continue to resist if it is supplied with Western military aid.  He also said he hopes Belarus does not join the conflict but that Ukraine will fight and survive if it does, following remarks by Belarusian President Alexander Lukahsenko that his country will fight alongside Russia if Belarus is attacked.  BBC

US Supports Ukrainian Military Strikes on Targets in Crimea.  US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said Friday that the US supports Ukrainian attacks on military targets on the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula.  She called such military sites “legitimate targets” as they are key to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  She added that Ukraine will not be safe until “Crimea is at a minimum demilitarized.”  A spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry said Nuland’s remarks show “American warmongers” are pushing Kyiv to further escalate the Ukraine war, adding that the US is now directly involved in the conflict because some US officials are “crazy people” who dream of defeating Russia.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Former Ukrainian Intelligence Official Says Kremlin’s Spies in Ukraine Failed Moscow.  The Kyiv Post is out with a new report that offers a perspective on how the Russian intelligence network inside of Ukraine may have dissolved at the beginning of the war.  The report cites Valeriy Kondratiuk a former senior Ukrainian intelligence official who says that the Kremlin’s extensive network of active spies and sleeper agents in Ukraine likely cut off contact with their Russian handlers once it became clear that the government in Kyiv was not going to surrender.  Kondratiuk also says that former pro-Russian Ukrainian officials living in exile likely misled senior Russian intelligence officers to believe that Ukrainian sentiment towards Russian rule was much stronger than it was.  Kyiv Post 

Israeli Foreign Minister Visits Ukraine.  Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen arrived in Kyiv on Thursday in the first official Israel visit to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion.  Cohen reportedly met with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.  The two sides say they discussed deepening bi-lateral relations and expanding humanitarian aid for Ukraine.  Post-war reconstruction and Iranian activity in the war was also discussed.  In a tweet Cohen says he told President Zelenskiy that Israel unequivocally supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  Israel has so far stopped short of providing Ukraine direct military assistance, citing a need to maintain open communications with Moscow over de-confliction in military operations inside of Syria, as well as the large Jewish population that lives inside of Russia.  Reuters

Moldova Approves New Pro-Western Government. Moldova’s parliament approved a new government under Prime Minister Dorin Recean following the resignation of former Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita after months of economic issues and turmoil from the Ukraine war.  Recean, a former Interior Minister and defense advisor, has pledged to help revive the economy and continue the previous government’s work to integrate Moldova into the European Union.  The news was welcomed by the US.  A US State Department spokesperson told reporters on Wednesday that the US supports Moldova’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and supports a ‘democratic, European future’ for Moldova.  Reuters  Radio Free Europe

Armenia Offers Peace Plan to Azerbaijan.  Armenia has offered a peace plan to Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the plan Thursday, and says it will end decades of conflict over the disputed border region.  The deal would reportedly establish monitoring mechanisms to stop threats to peace in the region.  Azerbaijan has not released an official comment on the offer.  Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle

Asia

North Korea Threatens Response Ahead of US, South Korea Joint Drills.  North Korea has threatened an “unprecedentedly persistent, strong,” response to upcoming annual drills between the US and South Korea.  The North Korean foreign ministry said that Pyongyang has not engaged in “special military action” this year but will counter US attempts “to show its muscle” if needed.  The ministry also said North Korea will consider actions beyond military activities if the UN Security Council continues to be “inveigled” or persuaded by the US.  The remarks came after South Korea announced regular springtime drills and nuclear tabletop exercises.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

China, Iran Call for Lifting of Iranian Sanctions.  Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi called on Thursday for sanctions on Iran to be lifted as part of a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.  The two leaders said the lifting of sanctions will promote the implementation of a nuclear deal.  The call came in a joint statement on the last day of Raisi’s three-day visit to China, when Xi also reportedly accepted an invitation by Raisi to visit Iran.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Overnight Protests Reported Across Iranian Cities.  Meanwhile in Iran, anti-government protests broke out in Tehran and other Iranian cities after a period that has seen fewer demonstrations in recent weeks.  The protests came 40 days after the execution of two protesters last month.  Online videos allegedly showed protesters calling for the removal of the Iranian regime and referring to the executed men, saying they will avenge their “martyred” brothers.  While protests appeared to have tapered off recently, unrest and acts of defiance have been consistent, ranging from nightly anti-regime chants to women refusing to follow the compulsory hijab policy.  BBC Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

South Africa Launches Joint Naval Drills With Russia, China.  South Africa is scheduled to begin joint naval exercises with Russia and China on Friday.  Analysts say the drills will be risky as South Africa seeks to maintain a neutral stance on the Ukraine war and wider tensions between the West and Moscow.  South Africa said the 10-day Mosi II exercise is a routine drill with international partners, highlighting other similar exercises such as one with France in November.  Despite this, several foreign diplomats have reportedly condemned the drills and domestic critics are raising concerns that the exercises will jeopardize ties with Western nations.  BBC Reuters

Cyber & Tech

US Launches Task Force on Foreign Technology Threats.  The US Departments of Justice and Commerce are launching a task force to counter foreign technology threats.  Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco announced the “Disruptive Technology Strike Force” on Thursday.  She said the new office will use intelligence and analytics to identify and combat threats from the acquisition and abuse of data and disruptive technology by adversaries like China and Russia.  Monaco says that the new capability will make up for shortcomings of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), which has traditionally been used to screen foreign investments and address the siphoning of US assets and technology.  CyberScoop

A Look Back Back at Russian Cyberattacks on Ukraine in 2022.  Ahead of the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts are looking at the mixed results of Russia’s assaults in cyberspace in its hybrid warfare against Kyiv over the past year.  Experts say that Russian cyber operations are notable as they are likely the first instance of disruptive cyber attacks, espionage and information operations in a conventional war.  However, analysts add that, except for a few attacks like the Viasat satellite communications disruption, Russian cyberattacks have mostly had little impact in the Ukraine war.  CISA Director Jen Easterly says the lack of significant impact from cyber attacks comes from strong cyber awareness and defenses and Russia’s overconfidence in its cyber capabilities.  Google’s Threat Analysis Group reports that despite the lack of significant success or critical impact, there has still been significant, constant Russian cyber activity.  The group observed an increase in cyberattacks, with an increase in Russian phishing against NATO by 300% in last year, as well as a 250% increase in phishing and malware attacks on Ukraine in early 2022 than in the last eight years.  CyberScoop Washington Post ZDNet 

Countries Sign Historic Military AI Call to Action.  Over sixty countries including the US and China signed a non-binding call to action on adopting new norms and best practices for military artificial intelligence (AI) on Thursday.  The pledge came at the end of the first summit on the use of AI in the military, which was co-hosted by the Netherlands and South Korea in The Hague.  The pledge calls for countries to ensure appropriate safeguards and oversight of military AI systems.  The statement lacks enforcement mechanisms and does not have the same legally-binding restrictions as other weapons treaties.  Analysts say the pledge can be improved with measures like export controls, though they note that the rapidly evolving field of AI makes regulation difficult.  Twenty countries, including Israel, did not sign the pledge for reasons that were not immediately clear.  Russia was not invited to the summit.  Courthouse News Reuters

US Announces Military AI Use Initiative.  At the end of the military AI summit, the US put forward its own declaration on the responsible use of military AI.  Much like the summit’s wider call to action, the US initiative focuses on human control and involvement in military AI decisions.  Bonnie Jenkins, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control, urged countries to cooperate in implementing norms and practices outlined in the framework.  ABCNews Reuters 

US Tests AI Control of F-16 Fighter Jet.  DARPA says artificial intelligence (AI) successfully controlled a modified F-16 fighter jet in test flights this week as part of the agency’s Air Combat Evolution (ACE) program.  DARPA says two AI systems successively piloted the jet, simulating dogfights and maneuvering tests.  The tests mark significant progress in the ACE program, which seeks to develop the Pentagon’s autonomous systems capability for various unmanned aircraft.  Business Insider DefenseScoop

Australia Tech Giant Suffers Apparent Data Breach.  Hacking group SiegedSec claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Australia tech giant Atlassian on Wednesday.  The group posted data apparently stolen from Atlassian, including a file with 13,200 entries containing identifying employee data, as well as floor plans for two of the company’s offices.  Atlassian said Thursday that the breach appeared to come from a hack of a third-party app used by the company to coordinate internal operations.  Atlassian is investigating the incident and says that it has not impacted business operations or compromised customer data.  BleepingComputer CyberScoop The Cipher Brief

Airline SAS Says Hack Compromised Customer Data.  Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) confirmed that a recent cyberattack which disrupted its online systems exposed customer data.  SAS says the data contains minor financial information and does not include passport information.  A so-called hacktivist group named ‘Anonymous Sudan’ claimed responsibility for the hack in response to protests at the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, Sweden that included burnings of the Quran.  BleepingComputer

China-Based Employee of Dutch Chip Maker “Misappropriated” Data.  Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker ASML Holding says a former employee in China gained unauthorized access to data and misappropriated the information.  The employee reportedly stole the data by breaching a software system used to store information about proprietary technology.  The stolen data is reportedly related to critical lithography systems.  ASML said it is investigating the incident and that export control regulations may have been violated with the breach, though business operations are likely unaffected.  Separately, ASML added that its IT systems are facing an increasing number of cyberattacks.  Bloomberg Wall Street Journal

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