Report for Friday Afternoon, September 27, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Friday Afternoon, September 27, 2024

Israeli airstrikes rock Beirut, target Hezbollah command

Yemen's Houthis say they attacked Israel, US destroyers

Donald Trump promises quick end to Ukraine war after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky.

What do we know about the DF-31 variant used in China’s recent ICBM test?

Turning OpenAI into a Real Business Is Tearing It Apart

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli airstrikes rock Beirut, target Hezbollah command.  Israel launched a powerful airstrike on Hezbollah's central headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs, marking a sharp escalation in the ongoing conflict. The attack, which targeted a command center embedded in civilian areas, caused widespread damage, destroyed four buildings, and resulted in numerous casualties. Israeli sources initially speculated that Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was a target, though reports from Hezbollah and Iranian news agencies later confirmed that Nasrallah was unharmed. This strike follows a series of Israeli attacks over the past week and comes shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed at the United Nations to continue targeting Iranian-backed fighters in Lebanon. The conflict has displaced over 200,000 people in Lebanon and raised fears of an all-out regional war.  Reuters  Wall Street Journal 

Yemen's Houthis say they attacked Israel, US destroyers.  Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants launched missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities Tel Aviv and Ashkelon, as well as three U.S. Navy destroyers in the Red Sea, in support of Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army intercepted a missile from Yemen that triggered alarms in central Israel. The Houthi spokesperson stated that they would continue their attacks until Israel halts its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. The U.S. Navy intercepted the projectiles fired at its ships, with no reported damage. This escalation comes amid ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Israeli military's offensive in Gaza following a Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and led to more than 41,000 Palestinian casualties in Gaza. Reuters 

Netanyahu tells UN: Israel seeks peace but 'enough is enough'. In a speech to the United Nations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would continue its military campaign against Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, stating that "enough is enough" regarding the ongoing violence. He emphasized Israel's right to defend itself and vowed to dismantle Hezbollah's military capabilities until Israeli citizens could safely return to their homes. Netanyahu also called for tougher action on Iran's nuclear program, including the reinstatement of U.N. sanctions. He asserted that Israel is fighting back against Tehran on multiple fronts, including Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, particularly from the U.S., Netanyahu reiterated that Israel's campaign would persist until its objectives were met.  Reuters

How Israel’s Spies Got Blindsided by Hamas but Still Hit Hezbollah Hard.  Israel’s intelligence services, which initially failed to anticipate Hamas’s October 7 attacks, have since mounted a highly successful offensive against Hezbollah. Over the past two decades, Israel had focused its efforts on preparing for a conflict with Hezbollah, considering the Lebanese militia and its backer Iran as greater threats compared to Hamas. While Israel underestimated signs of Hamas's plans, it has recently devastated Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon through a series of targeted strikes. These operations, including the destruction of Hezbollah's communication devices and key headquarters, have dealt a significant blow to its leadership and military capacity. Despite the success, experts warn that Hezbollah retains considerable firepower, and an Israeli ground invasion could provide the militant group with opportunities to demonstrate its capabilities. Israel's preparedness and offensive focus against Hezbollah contrast sharply with its defensive failure regarding Hamas. Wall Street Journal 

Israel Likely to Have Enough Weapons for Multiple Conflicts.  Israel has demonstrated its ability to sustain multiple fronts in its ongoing conflicts, launching over 2,000 airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon while continuing near-daily bombings in Gaza. Despite being secretive about its weapons stockpile, military experts believe Israel can outlast its adversaries due to a well-prepared defense industry, surplus weapon production, and significant arms supplies from the United States. Israel's Iron Dome air defense system has successfully intercepted a majority of the thousands of rockets launched by Hezbollah, though experts warn that no defense system can block all missiles. Israel’s defense capabilities have been bolstered by its self-sufficient arms industry and substantial military support from the U.S., ensuring it has the resources to continue its military operations. New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Donald Trump promises quick end to Ukraine war after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky.  Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, discussing the potential for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine if Trump wins the U.S. election. Trump emphasized his strong relationships with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposing peace talks with Russia, a move many Western officials consider premature as it could solidify Russian territorial gains. The meeting, their first since 2019, marked an important step for Zelenskyy in maintaining U.S. support amid criticism from some Republicans. Trump, despite previous tensions with Ukraine, reiterated that he harbored no ill will toward Zelensky over the impeachment inquiry involving Hunter Biden. During his visit to Washington, Zelenskyy also met with U.S. President Joe Biden, securing an additional $2.4 billion in military aid. The encounter with Trump was seen as vital for Kyiv to reinforce support amid the ongoing conflict.  Financial Times

AMERICAS

US charges Iranians with hacking attack on Trump campaign.  The U.S. Justice Department has charged three members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps with hacking Donald Trump's presidential campaign in an attempt to disrupt the 2020 election. The indictment accuses the men of using phishing tactics to steal internal campaign documents, such as debate preparation materials, and leaking them to media outlets and the Biden campaign, though Biden’s team did not act on the information. The hackers, part of a group known as APT42, are also linked to more extensive cyber espionage activities, such as placing surveillance software on mobile phones. While the three suspects remain in Iran and out of reach of U.S. law enforcement, the Justice Department has vowed to pursue them indefinitely. This incident is part of broader efforts by the U.S. to combat foreign interference in elections, including sanctions against Iranian and Russian individuals involved in cyber attacks and election tampering.  Reuters

Four more health workers show symptoms after contact with Missouri bird flu patient.  Four additional healthcare workers in Missouri developed mild respiratory symptoms after contact with a bird flu patient, though none tested positive for the virus. This brings the total to six healthcare workers showing symptoms, with only one confirmed negative through PCR testing, and the rest awaiting antibody test results. The bird flu patient in Missouri had no known contact with infected animals, raising concerns of potential human-to-human transmission. Experts emphasize the need for prompt testing to assess the risk of spread. This case is the 14th U.S. bird flu diagnosis this year, with previous cases linked to farm workers exposed to infected poultry. The CDC is supporting the state's investigation into the outbreak. Reuters New York Times

EUROPE

Moldovan President Fires Army Chief Ahead Of Crucial Votes. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has dismissed Brigadier General Eduard Ohladciuc, the chief of Moldova's military, as the country prepares for a crucial presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union. Ohladciuc’s removal comes after the Defense Ministry proposed his dismissal due to the expiration of his service contract. This decision aligns with Sandu's broader push to reduce Russian influence in Moldova, especially following the start of Russia's war on Ukraine. Sandu’s government has aligned with the European Union and began EU membership negotiations. The military leadership change is part of a larger effort to eliminate potential Russian intelligence ties, following the arrest of Ohladciuc's predecessor on charges of spying for Russia. Additionally, Moldova’s intelligence service has banned several Russian news sites, citing national security risks. Radio Free Europe 

Armenian Troops Boycott Russian-Led Military Exercises as Relations Sour.  Armenia has boycotted a key meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and skipped military exercises amid escalating tensions with Russia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian recently suggested that Armenia may be nearing a "point of no return" with the Russian-led alliance. This follows a series of events, including Armenia's dissatisfaction with Russian troops' lack of intervention during Azerbaijan's September 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to Azerbaijan regaining control of the region. Pashinian has since reoriented Armenia's foreign policy toward the West, including participating in joint military exercises with the U.S. and halting financial contributions to the CSTO. Armenia's growing distance from Russia and the CSTO is seen as a response to Moscow's perceived failure to fulfill its security commitments. Radio Free Europe

ASIA & OCEANIA

What do we know about the DF-31 variant used in China’s recent ICBM test?  China recently tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), believed to be a variant of the Dong Feng-31 (DF-31), which traveled approximately 12,000 km from its launch site in Hainan, across the Pacific Ocean. The DF-31, part of the People's Liberation Army's missile arsenal since 2006, is a three-stage missile capable of carrying either a single warhead or multiple smaller warheads to target different locations. The missile landed near the Marquesas Islands in the Pacific, after passing close to the Philippines and Guam. This test highlights the capability of the DF-31, which can be fired from mobile launchers suited to rough terrain.  South China Morning Post 

Incoming Japan PM Ishiba's 'Asian NATO' idea test for US diplomacy.  Shigeru Ishiba, poised to become Japan's next prime minister, has proposed creating an "Asian NATO" and stationing Japanese troops on U.S. soil, potentially complicating U.S. diplomacy. Ishiba argues that an alliance similar to NATO is necessary to deter China's military ambitions in Asia. Despite U.S. rejection of this idea, Ishiba has continued to push for it, citing the relative decline of U.S. power in the region. His plan involves integrating existing security partnerships, such as the Quad and AUKUS, and exploring shared control of U.S. nuclear weapons as a deterrent. While controversial, Ishiba aims to reshape Japan's security relationship with the U.S. without entirely weakening ties. Reuters

The Wily Spy Who Risked His Life to Meet North Korea’s Secretive Leader.  Park Chae-so, a South Korean spy who successfully infiltrated North Korea and even met with its enigmatic leader Kim Jong-il in 1997, became a celebrated yet controversial figure. Posing as a businessman, Park built relationships with North Korean elites by facilitating trade deals and offering financial aid, eventually gaining enough trust to meet Kim Jong-il. However, his identity was exposed in 1998 during a political scandal in South Korea. Park opposed both North Korean and South Korean intelligence agencies' efforts to meddle in South Korea’s 1997 presidential election. After being publicly identified, Park shifted to inter-Korean business projects, but his ties with North Korean officials later led to his imprisonment in 2010 on charges of illegal contacts and sharing sensitive information. Park served six years in solitary confinement and, since his release in 2016, has lived a quiet life, though he speculates that his former North Korean contacts may still reach out to him for financial reasons. New York Times

Afghanistan: Taliban impose new restrictions on media.  The Taliban have imposed new restrictions on media in Afghanistan, banning live broadcasts of political shows and prohibiting criticism of their policies. Journalists must now seek prior approval for political topics, and only guests from a Taliban-approved list of 68 experts can appear on these shows. The group has also banned women from appearing on air and has imprisoned journalists who criticize their rule. Media outlets are prohibited from reporting on corruption or violence involving the Taliban, and any violations of these rules result in punishment. These measures have effectively dismantled press freedom, turning Afghan media into a tool for Taliban propaganda. Journalists still in the country operate under strict surveillance, while those who have fled describe the situation as the "death of free speech" in Afghanistan. Deutsche Welle

AFRICA

SPECIAL REPORT Famine is ravaging Sudan, but the world can’t get food aid to millions of starving people.  Sudan is facing a severe famine exacerbated by a civil war between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with both sides blocking food aid from reaching millions of people. More than half of Sudan’s population is suffering from extreme hunger, and hundreds are dying daily due to starvation and hunger-related diseases. The United Nations and other international aid organizations have been unable to deliver essential food supplies to areas controlled by rebels, as the Sudanese government, particularly the military, restricts access. Some regions, like South Kordofan and Darfur, are experiencing famine-like conditions, with the military using starvation as a weapon of war to destabilize areas it does not control. While aid is reaching some regions, millions remain without assistance. The World Food Program has only been able to assist a fraction of those in need. Meanwhile, UN officials have been reluctant to confront the Sudanese government for fear of retaliation, further hindering efforts to deliver aid to the starving population. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Turning OpenAI into a Real Business Is Tearing It Apart.  OpenAI is undergoing significant internal turmoil as it transitions from a nonprofit focused on developing AI for public benefit to a more commercially driven, for-profit entity. This shift has led to a series of high-profile departures, including the chief technology officer, Mira Murati, and over 20 other researchers and executives. Many of these departures stem from conflicts between OpenAI's original mission and its growing focus on monetizing AI products. CEO Sam Altman, who was briefly ousted last year, has faced criticism for being detached from day-to-day operations, while the company has rushed product releases, sometimes at the expense of safety testing. OpenAI is also grappling with leadership tensions and the challenge of balancing research with the demands of rapid business expansion, while trying to raise $6.5 billion to support its growth. The company faces competition from rivals such as Anthropic and xAI, both founded by former OpenAI leaders, as it strives to maintain its lead in the AI industry.  Wall Street Journal 

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this report was 2:30 PM E.T.

Brad Christian contributed to this report.

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