Open Source Report for Wednesday, May 21, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Trump’s appoints new leader for $175 billion ‘Golden Dome’ anti-missile project

EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions over Ukraine without waiting for US

Kremlin says Russia will defend its ships in the Baltic Sea with all means available

New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities

Multiple Russian government services impacted by DDoS cyberattack ‘from abroad.’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Opinion: Counter-AI May be the Most Important AI Battlefront. Jennifer Ewbank, former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for Digital Innovation from 2019 to 2024, warns that the most critical artificial intelligence challenge is not innovation, but defense. Drawing on her experience leading one of the world’s most secure digital ecosystems, she argues that counter-AI—protecting AI systems from adversarial manipulation—is the silent, high-stakes battlefield of our time. Adversarial machine learning (AML) tactics such as data poisoning, evasion attacks, and model inversion already threaten military drones, financial systems, and facial recognition tools. These threats often go undetected, altering AI behavior without changing code. Ewbank stresses that current U.S. defenses are inadequate and fragmented, hindered by workforce gaps and institutional silos between AI developers and security teams. She calls for a unified, proactive strategy involving government, industry, and academia to secure AI infrastructure. Ultimately, Ewbank argues, the nation that masters counter-AI will safeguard not just systems, but democratic freedoms themselves, as AI increasingly mediates information, decisions, and civic life. The Cipher Brief 

Opinion: As Negotiations Over Ukraine Drag On, What Can Putin Stand to Lose? Retired Central Intelligence Agency senior executive Mark Kelton compares Vladimir Putin to Joseph Stalin, particularly in how both leaders leveraged control, propaganda, and fear to sustain power during wartime. As Ukraine war negotiations stall, Kelton argues that Putin, now gaining ground militarily, is unlikely to negotiate in good faith until he secures minimal territorial objectives—namely, full control over four Ukrainian regions illegally annexed in 2022. Kelton notes that, much like Stalin at Yalta, Putin will let battlefield developments dictate terms. He warns that appeals from figures like Pope Leo XIV or President Donald Trump are unlikely to influence Putin, who sees concessions as weakness. Kelton anticipates drawn-out talks filled with stalling tactics and deceptive promises, emphasizing the need for stronger sanctions and military aid to force Russia to the table. Without real pressure, Putin will continue the war until he can claim a “victory” to justify his aggression. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s appoints new leader for $175 billion ‘Golden Dome’ antimissile project. President Trump has appointed Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein to lead the development of a $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, an ambition project aimed at protecting the U.S. from advanced threats like hypersonic and low-flying missiles. Modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome but using different technology, the system would integrate ground-based interceptors, a network of satellites, and new tech. Guetlein, a four-star general experienced in space operations, compared the project’s scale to the Manhattan Project and underscored its complexity, as well as the need for interagency cooperation. Trump announced the plan on Tuesday alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and said he hopes to complete key parts of the “super technology” before his term ends, with the possible involvement of allies like Canada. While the Congressional Budget Office estimates total costs could reach $831 billion, Republicans propose an initial $25 billion in the next budget. Defense officials have briefed Trump, who instructed them to prioritize elements that can be finished quickly. Companies like SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril are being considered for contracts. Wall Street JournalPolitico BBC Reuters Axios 

To Combat China, U.S. Wants Its Friends to Do More. U.S. military leaders and Asia-Pacific allies are warning of a growing threat from China, urging stronger regional cooperation to counter Beijing's military buildup. At a recent summit in Hawaii, officials stressed sharing intelligence, conducting joint exercises, and aligning command systems—many for the first time. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, described China’s aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan as “rehearsals, not exercises.” The Trump administration has prioritized Beijing as the top security challenge, deploying new forces and expanding coordination with allies like Japan and the Philippines. Tokyo has launched new counterstrike missile plans and created a joint command, while Taipei has developed early-warning systems, purchased U.S.-made NASAMS, heavily invested in missiles and sea mines, and stockpiled attack drones. The U.S. has bolstered its presence with additional mobile units and long-range precision missiles. However, challenges remain, including communication gaps and differing military doctrines among allies. Wall Street Journal 

US military faces ‘readiness crisis’ to modernize as China advances: Pentagon. U.S. military leaders warned that China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities are outpacing America’s current readiness, prompting urgent calls to modernize and integrate manned and unmanned systems. At a Council on Foreign Relations event on Monday, officials stressed the need to counter China’s naval and technological expansion—especially as a possible conflict over Taiwan looms. The Pentagon is concerned by China’s vast shipbuilding advantage and growing drone programs. U.S. Navy leaders highlighted delays in shipbuilding and pushed for hybrid fleets using unmanned surface, underwater, and aerial systems. The Marine Corps prioritizes sensors and long-range precision weapons, while the Air Force is focusing on human-machine integration and adaptable systems for modern warfare. The Space Force warned that China is developing anti-satellite capabilities, threatening U.S. dominance in space. Meanwhile, the Coast Guard faces a severe readiness crisis after decades of underfunding. Despite these concerns, officials maintained that Washington retains critical qualitative military advantages over Beijing. South China Morning Post 

General Atomics says both Air Force CCAs in ground testing, expected to fly this summer. General Atomics has announced that ground testing for its YFQ-42A collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) began on May 7, with its first flight expected this summer. The drone, derived from the XQ-67 Off-Board Sensing Station, is part of the U.S. Air Force's push to expand its unmanned aerial capabilities. CCAs are semi-autonomous drones designed to operate alongside crewed fighters like the F-35, conducting missions such as strike operations, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare. Anduril Industries’ YFQ-44A, formerly called Fury, also began ground testing this month. Both drones are part of the Air Force’s initial CCA development effort launched in April 2024. These aircraft are expected to have over 700 nautical miles of combat range and stealth similar to the F-35. The Air Force aims to acquire at least 1,000 CCAs and will base its first readiness unit at Beale Air Force Base in California. A final production decision between the two designs will be made in 2026. Defense News The War Zone The Aviationist  

Hacker who breached communications app used by Trump aide stole data from across US government. A recent cyberattack against TeleMessage, the messaging platform used by former national security adviser Mike Waltz, compromised messages from over 60 U.S. government officials. The hacked data, reviewed by Reuters and provided by the nonprofit Distributed Denial of Secrets, included messages from disaster responders, diplomatic staff, customs officials, a White House staffer, and Secret Service members. While the leaked content appeared to contain no clearly classified material, some messages discussed travel plans for senior officials. The platform, designed to archive communications for regulatory compliance, was taken offline on May 5 after the breach. Federal agencies, including FEMA and CBP, downplayed the impact or declined detailed comment. Smarsh, the platform’s Portland-based owner, did not answer requests for comments about the leaked data. Cybersecurity experts warn that even without message content, the metadata alone presents a major counterintelligence risk. The breach comes in the wake of earlier scrutiny of Waltz’s messaging practices and raises further concerns about communication security within the Trump administration. Reuters 

Rubio defends White House foreign policy at intense hearing, says U.S. is not withdrawing from the world. At a heated Senate hearing marked by shouting matches and outbursts from protestors, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio fiercely defended the Trump administration’s contentious foreign policy decisions amid harsh criticism from Senate Democrats and former colleagues. Once seen as a moderate, Rubio now faces accusations of abandoning democratic principles, enabling humanitarian crises, and defending President Trump’s transactional, isolationist agenda. Senators, including Chris Van Hollen and Jacky Rosen, expressed deep disappointment in Rubio’s transformation from advocate of foreign aid to enforcer of sharp cuts to USAID and diplomatic infrastructure. Rubio, also serving as national security adviser, claimed the administration’s actions were misunderstood, and not a retreat from global leadership. "I just hit 18 countries in 18 weeks," he said. "That doesn't sound like much of a withdrawal." He deflected concerns over Trump’s business entanglements, including a $400 million gift from Qatar and a crypto fundraising event. Rubio also justified policies prioritizing certain refugee groups over others and vowed to continue deporting foreign students “disrupting our higher education.” While Republicans on the committee praised Rubio’s “stamina” and leadership, Democrats accused him of enabling constitutional overreach and weakening American global influence. Washington Post Reuters U.S. Department of State NPR Associated Press 

ODNI looking to reform contracting practices: Gabbard. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has announced efforts to reform the U.S. Intelligence Community’s procurement system, focusing on streamlining contracting, especially for open-source intelligence (OSINT). Speaking at the GEOINT Symposium this week, she criticized outdated procurement laws that hinder efficiency and block small businesses and startups from entering the field. Gabbard underscored reducing excessive contractor layers and opening access to innovative, cost-effective solutions. She also highlighted a major shift in intelligence priorities toward monitoring foreign cartels at U.S. borders. This requires improved coordination between national intelligence agencies and local law enforcement to avoid information silos and increase effectiveness. Additionally, Gabbard pledged to enhance the timeliness, objectivity, and relevance of intelligence products, citing widespread frustration among policymakers over delayed or biased reports. She stressed that intelligence must be delivered at “operational speed” to be useful for high-level decision-making. Breaking Defense 

Emails show official pushed analysts to tweak intelligence so as not to challenge Trump’s gang claims. Newly revealed emails show that Joe Kent, the chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, appeared to pressure analysts to revise an intelligence assessment to shield U.S. President Trump and Gabbard from criticism. The original February 26 report concluded that Venezuela’s government does not direct the Tren de Aragua gang, contradicting Trump’s March claim, which the administration used to justify mass deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. After media coverage exposed the discrepancy, Kent urged analysts to “rethink” the assessment, calling for edits that aligned more closely with Trump’s narrative. A link between the regime of leader Nicolas Maduro and Tren de Aragua was “common sense,” Kent asserted. Despite his efforts, the final April 7 memo still contradicts Trump’s claim and has sparked legal and political fallout. Most U.S. intelligence agencies dismissed evidence of Venezuelan government coordination with the gang as not credible. Although Kent celebrated the edited version and ordered it declassified, Gabbard later fired the memo’s authors, accusing them of bias. The episode has fueled concerns about the politicization of intelligence under the Trump administration. New York Times Reuters 

Inside Kristi Noem’s Polygraph Operation. Under Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, DHS has escalated the use of polygraph exams to identify internal leaks—often of unclassified but embarrassing or disloyal information—sparking concerns of politicized surveillance. These exams, conducted by a TSA unit, have targeted employees across agencies like FEMA and ICE, including senior staff and authorized media spokespeople. Critics argue the exams, many seemingly random, are used to instill fear and suppress dissent, with some employees resigning or being placed on leave after testing. Senior officials, including Noem’s top advisor, Corey Lewandowski, have reportedly threatened employees with these tests. DHS insists the goal is to protect sensitive information and uphold national security, not to punish disloyalty. However, many view the practice as unprecedented and arbitrary. Legal experts, including whistleblower advocates, warn that the widespread use of polygraphs may violate federal protections. Meanwhile, similar leak crackdowns are underway in the Justice and Defense departments. The initiative reflects growing distrust within DHS leadership. Wall Street Journal 

Biden's mental decline unnerved House Dems as early as 2023. A new book, Original Sin by journalists Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, reveals that several House Democrats saw signs of former President Biden’s cognitive and physical decline as early as 2023 but remained silent out of loyalty or fear. The book, based on over 200 interviews, details moments such as Biden appearing lethargic at a White House Christmas party and struggling with energy and speech during a 2023 trip to Ireland. Despite early concerns, Democrats only began publicly urging Biden to drop his 2024 reelection bid after his disastrous debate with Donald Trump. Internal polling and fears of electoral losses ultimately pushed more Democrats to act. The White House has denied any failure or cover-up, defending Biden's record. Still, the book highlights a deep rift between private concerns and public loyalty among Democratic leaders during Biden’s final years in office. Axios NPR 

Trump proposal to repatriate Ukrainians, Haitians would use foreign aid funds. Draft documents examined by the Washington Post reveal that the Trump administration is planning to repurpose up to $250 million in foreign aid to fund the voluntary removal of migrants, including over 700,000 Ukrainians and Haitians, who fled conflict, violence, and instability. The initiative would bypass the UN-affiliated International Organization for Migration and potentially target others from war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. Critics argue the plan is inhumane and misuses funds intended for refugee support. While the administration frames it as a cost-saving, self-deportation program—with $1,000 stipends for volunteers—opponents say it pressures vulnerable individuals to return to unsafe conditions. The plan also coincides with the dismantling of U.S. refugee resettlement programs and growing concerns over revoked Temporary Protected Status for certain groups. Human rights advocates and former officials have condemned the proposal, calling it unlawful and inconsistent with U.S. obligations to protect displaced populations fleeing violence. Washington Post

Venezuela Frees U.S. Air Force Veteran in Overture to Trump. Venezuela has released U.S. Air Force veteran Joseph St. Clair, an act seen as a goodwill gesture aimed at improving relations with the Trump administration. 33-year-old St. Clair, who was arrested in October near the Colombian border, was declared wrongfully detained by the State Department. His release, facilitated by Trump envoy Ric Grenell, comes amid broader negotiations involving oil sanctions and deportation cooperation. President Nicolás Maduro hopes the gesture will help persuade Trump to ease sanctions and allow Western oil companies, like Chevron, to continue operating in the country. Washington recently extended oil licenses for 60 days. However, some officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, oppose any moves that could bolster Maduro. St. Clair's release follows previous detainee releases and behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Wall Street Journal Associated Press Reuters CNN 

Two top members of Mexico City mayor's inner circle assassinated in brazen attack. The targeted killing of two close aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada in a quiet, residential neighborhood has shattered the capital’s relative insulation from cartel violence, raising alarms about the reach of organized crime. The attack, carried out with professional precision on Tuesday morning, comes as President Claudia Sheinbaum faces mounting pressure to deliver on her promises to crack down on crime and drug trafficking. Despite touting record drug seizures and falling homicide rates, Sheinbaum’s administration has already recorded over 16,000 murders in seven months. These high-profile killings mirror past attacks, including a 2020 cartel ambush on current Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch. His expanded mandate under Sheinbaum reflects her departure from her predecessor’s passive "hugs, not bullets" strategy. The killings have shaken public confidence, prompting fears of deepening insecurity even in the capital and intensifying political pressure on Sheinbaum’s administration to prove that its security approach can counter Mexico’s entrenched violence. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press 

How Congress could crush Trump’s Qatari plane gift. Lawmakers are mulling the actions they can take to prevent President Trump from accepting a controversial $400 million gift from Qatar. Trump’s plan to receive the luxury Boeing jet has sparked bipartisan backlash in Congress, with critics citing national security, ethics, and constitutional concerns. Democrats are exploring multiple ways to block or complicate the deal, including amendments to the must-pass defense bill, standalone legislation barring federal funds for the aircraft, and a resolution invoking the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause. Senate Democrats are also considering holding up Pentagon nominees and pressuring Qatar by attempting to block a $1.9 billion arms sale. The controversy centers on the optics and risks of a foreign government gifting an aircraft to a sitting president, with lawmakers arguing it could be seen as a “flying bribe.” While many proposals face long odds in a Republican-controlled Congress, the issue has created political discomfort, forcing the White House to weigh whether the jet is worth the mounting scrutiny and legislative resistance. Politico

Pentagon chief orders review into ‘disastrous’ 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has launched a new review of the U.S. military’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, aiming to hold senior military leaders accountable for the deadly operation that left 13 U.S. troops and 170 civilians dead. Unusually, the review will be led by Hegseth’s chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, a combat veteran, and joined by former Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller, who was punished for publicly criticizing military leadership after the Kabul airport bombing. Hegseth's choice reflects mounting distrust in the military’s ability to investigate itself. The review will likely focus narrowly on the execution of the withdrawal and not address the 2020 Trump-Taliban deal or the collapse of the Afghan military. Hegseth blames the Biden administration for the withdrawal’s failures and has implied that military leaders should have resigned in protest rather than carry out the plan. Critics warn that the review may sidestep broader, systemic failures spanning multiple administrations. New York Times Bloomberg Reuters The Hill 

Republicans accuse Harvard of collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party. Republicans in Congress have accused Harvard University of collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), training sanctioned Chinese paramilitary groups, and engaging in “dual-use” research with Chinese military-linked institutions. A letter from top GOP lawmakers highlights concerns about Harvard’s ties to Chinese universities connected to the repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang and to the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), which is under U.S. sanctions. The letter also accuses Harvard of working with Chinese scientists involved in Iranian military projects and controversial organ transplant research. Lawmakers claim these partnerships pose national security and ethical risks and warned that such activities may threaten the Ivy League university’s tax-exempt status. Harvard has declined to comment. The controversy adds to broader scrutiny from the Trump administration, which has also accused the university of fostering antisemitism due to pro-Palestinian activism, amid intensifying tensions over foreign influence in U.S. academic institutions. The Times The Harvard Crimson 

Senator reveals U.S. migrant detentions at Guantanamo Bay cost $100,000 per person daily. Senator Gary Peters blasted the Trump administration’s use of Guantanamo Bay to detain migrants, revealing that housing costs an unusually high $100,000 per detainee per day—vastly more than the $165 daily cost at U.S. immigration facilities. During a Senate hearing, Peters called the practice wasteful, especially since detainees are often flown back to the U.S. at taxpayer expense. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, defending a proposed $44 billion DHS budget increase for 2026, said she was unaware of the Guantanamo costs. About 70 migrants are currently held there. Republican Senator Rand Paul also raised concerns about excessive spending, questioning the need for $46.5 billion for new border walls when illegal crossings have declined under Trump. The hearing highlighted bipartisan unease over the administration’s immigration strategy and its fiscal impact. Reuters The Independent 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump's deference to Putin stunned European leaders on call. After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump held a follow-up call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and five European leaders, who were hoping to discuss a ceasefire. Instead, Trump said Putin had merely agreed to negotiate, and Trump ruled out further U.S. sanctions for now—remarks that reportedly stunned several participants. Trump said the U.S. would not be directly involved in negotiations and downplayed expectations, telling reporters hours later in the Oval Office, “This was a European situation.” Zelensky, who had asked Trump before the Putin call to demand a ceasefire and threaten penalties, expressed concern that the Kremlin leader’s position hadn’t changed. He pointed out to Trump that Putin had previously agreed to negotiate, noting the first round of ceasefire talks took place on Friday in Istanbul. Trump didn't directly respond, the sources said. Trump said Russia would soon present a written “peace memo.” European leaders pushed for broader international involvement, but Trump favored direct Ukraine-Russia talks, proposing the Vatican as a venue. Asked about next steps, Trump replied vaguely, “I don’t know,” reinforcing allies’ fears that the U.S. is stepping back from leadership. Axios

Zelensky’s Attempt to Get Trump on His Side Falls Flat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made repeated concessions to align with U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision for ending the war with Russia, including agreeing to an unconditional cease-fire, accepting a U.S.-backed minerals deal, and participating in peace talks proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, Trump has shifted toward endorsing Putin’s stance that negotiations must precede any cease-fire and has resisted imposing new sanctions when Russia rejected a proposed 30-day truce. Zelensky’s diplomatic outreach has yielded little, with Trump appearing to accept a future Russian memorandum as a superficial sign of progress. Putin, meanwhile, demands a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine and control over occupied territory. Analysts warn that Putin is using the process to extract further concessions while remaining committed to his broader geopolitical aims. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that Putin sees Ukraine’s fate as existential and is prepared to prolong the war indefinitely to fulfill his maximalist objectives. Wall Street Journal

Trump’s New Position on the War in Ukraine: Not My Problem. President Trump appears to be stepping back from U.S. leadership in the Russia-Ukraine war, signaling a shift in policy after Monday’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite previously vowing to broker peace swiftly and threatening sanctions, Trump is now encouraging Ukraine and Russia to negotiate independently, backing away from coordination with European allies pursuing new sanctions. Trump reportedly downplayed further penalties on Moscow, citing potential U.S. business opportunities with Russia once the war ends. This retreat from diplomatic pressure has frustrated Kyiv and widened the rift within NATO, undermining a unified Western stance. Trump’s shift is viewed by European leaders as a strategic win for Putin, who seeks to fracture allied unity. Though U.S. officials insist existing sanctions and aid remain, critics see the change as appeasement. Trump has framed future U.S.-Russia trade as a priority, signaling economic normalization over sustained support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and resistance to Russian aggression. New York Times

Ukrainians Brace for a Longer War as Trump Backs Off Cease-Fire Call. As President Trump retreats from pushing for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, many Ukrainians are bracing for a prolonged war. Civilians across the country, from bombarded Sumy to the front lines near Kharkiv, are expressing deep frustration and resignation, viewing Trump’s diplomacy as disconnected from the brutal reality they endure daily. Trump’s failure to pressure Russia and his pivot to letting Ukraine and Russia negotiate alone have left Ukrainians feeling abandoned but not deterred. Ukrainian soldiers and citizens alike see Russia’s diplomacy as a smokescreen for intensified offensives, with Moscow escalating attacks under the cover of talks. Despite battlefield losses and exhaustion, Ukrainians are preparing for a long fight, increasingly reliant on European aid, domestic weapons production, and their own resilience. As one veteran put it, “With or without Trump, the war will end,” but Ukraine must endure whatever it takes to secure its future independently.  New York Times 

Analysis: Trump-Putin call on war in Ukraine is another blow to Kyiv and its allies. Ukraine and its European allies were left reeling after President Trump’s recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which he dropped support for an immediate 30-day cease-fire and signaled that resolving the war is now up to Kyiv and Moscow. This reversal dashed hopes in Kyiv and Europe that Trump might pressure Russia into meaningful peace talks. European diplomats, shocked by the shift, quickly rallied around Ukraine, announcing new sanctions on Moscow and pledging continued support. Still, concerns are mounting over waning U.S. engagement, especially with American military aid expiring this summer. Germany's defense minister called Putin’s strategy a stalling tactic. Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. weapons and intelligence, now faces deep uncertainty over future support. Allies fear Trump’s economic overtures to Russia could further undercut pressure on the Kremlin. Reuters

Europe races to keep Trump involved in Ukraine-Russia talks. Following President Trump’s Monday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where he signaled a hands-off approach to Ukraine peace talks, European capitals scrambled into a diplomatic flurry to keep the U.S. engaged. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that America’s continued involvement is “crucial,” warning that disengagement only benefits Putin. On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and other European leaders. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned Putin’s stalling tactics and urged more U.S. pressure. Diplomats are now working to coordinate joint positions with Kyiv and find a way to keep Trump from walking away. Financial Times

EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions over Ukraine without waiting for Trump. The European Union and the United Kingdom launched a new wave of sanctions against Russia, intensifying economic pressure amid growing concerns over a stalled peace process. The EU’s 17th sanctions package includes four coordinated sets targeting Russia’s shadow oil fleet, chemical weapons programs, human rights abuses, and hybrid threats. The most high-profile measures blacklist 189 vessels, including 183 oil tankers used to evade the G7’s $60-per-barrel crude price cap, bringing the total sanctioned fleet to 342. Major Russian energy firms such as Surgutneftegaz and shipping entities based in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Hong Kong were also sanctioned. Britain added 100 new sanctions, focused on financial and maritime entities aiding the Kremlin. While EU leaders signaled intent to lower the oil price cap and prepare an 18th round of sanctions, the U.S. has not followed suit. Brussels aims to force Russian President Vladimir Putin into serious peace talks. Reuters New York Times RFE/RL Reuters

Rubio says the US may impose sanctions on Russia if no progress on a peace deal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that the United States may impose new sanctions on Russia if there is no progress toward a peace deal with Ukraine. Defending President Trump’s recent two-hour call Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Rubio said that Trump believes threatening sanctions now could halt dialogue, arguing “there’s value in us being able to talk to them and drive them to get to the table.” Rubio denied the administration was soft on Russia, noting no sanctions had been lifted and U.S. military support for Ukraine continues. Democratic senators criticized the lack of pressure on Putin during the call and accused the administration of appeasement. Financial Times

Rubio says US, NATO seek more Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. During Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the U.S. is actively working with NATO partners to locate additional Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. However, he noted that no NATO country is willing to part with its Patriot batteries, and the U.S. cannot produce them fast enough to meet demand. Ukraine, which operates eight systems (two under repair), has urgently requested more to counter Russia’s escalating missile and drone attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to purchase 10 more systems for $15 billion, but President Trump has dismissed the request. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine wants the G7 price cap on Russian oil lowered to $30 per barrel. On Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called on the G7 nations to lower their price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60 to $30 per barrel, arguing it would undermine Russia’s war financing more effectively. Speaking in Brussels, Sybiha emphasized the need for tighter economic pressure. The European Union and the UK signaled support for reducing the oil cap, with EU officials reportedly considering a $50 limit. President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the measures, saying Russian oil revenues are a key pressure point. Reuters

Most Americans believe Putin is stalling peace talks, poll shows. A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted online from May 14–15 found that over 60% of Americans believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling peace talks involving the United States. The survey showed that 62% support continued U.S. weapon deliveries to Ukraine and additional sanctions if Russia refuses to negotiate a peace deal. Only 34% believe Putin genuinely wants to end the war, compared to 62% who think President Volodymyr Zelensky does. Following President Trump’s Monday call with Putin, where no ceasefire was agreed, 59% of respondents said Trump is “not tough enough” on Putin, and 58% doubt he will successfully end the war. Kyiv Independent

Putin makes first visit to Kursk since Russia claimed to have recaptured the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited the Kursk region for the first time since Moscow claimed to have fully recaptured it from Ukrainian forces, Russian state news agency TASS reported Wednesday. The Kremlin said Putin met municipal leaders in the city of Kurchatov and toured the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is still under construction. However, TASS did not specify when the visit took place. Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the region last August—the first foreign ground invasion of Russia since World War II—briefly capturing territory. Russia, aided by North Korean soldiers, has since fought to reclaim the area. Last month, Putin declared the region fully retaken. Kyiv, however, insists its forces are still operating there and views the area as a strategic bargaining chip. CNN

Russian missile attack kills Ukrainian servicemen in training. A Russian missile attack on a Ukrainian military shooting range killed six servicemen and wounded at least 10 more during training on Tuesday, Ukraine's national guard said on Wednesday, adding that the commander of the unit had been suspended. Russia's defense ministry had said on Tuesday that the missile attack on the training camp in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine near the Russian border killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors. Reuters

Poland to try suspect in alleged Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky. Polish prosecutors announced Tuesday that a man identified as Pawel K. has been formally indicted for aiding Russian intelligence in an alleged plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Arrested in April 2024 through joint efforts by Polish and Ukrainian authorities, Pawel K. is accused of collaborating with Russia’s military intelligence and faces up to eight years in prison. He reportedly gathered intelligence on security at Poland’s Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport—a key hub for Western military aid to Ukraine. Polish officials say the case underscores growing threats from Russian espionage, which Moscow denies. Reuters

Russia sends 20,000 recently naturalized citizens to fight in Ukraine, top official says. Russia has sent 20,000 recently naturalized migrants to fight in Ukraine for failing to register for military service, Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin said Tuesday. Speaking at a legal forum, Bastrykin said law enforcement is conducting raids in migrant communities to catch draft evaders. This move reflects a broader crackdown on migrants as the Kremlin struggles to meet its manpower needs without resorting to another unpopular mass mobilization. In 2024, Russia passed a law allowing the revocation of citizenship for non-compliant naturalized citizens. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Occupation Update for Monday, May 19. Russia is intensifying its efforts to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children in occupied territories, with the "Voin" training network taking custody of orphans in Donetsk Oblast and subjecting them to military instruction by Russian veterans. Russian authorities are also embedding pro-Russian Cossack organizations in occupied regions to indoctrinate youth, recruit for military service, and expand Moscow’s civil and military control. Meanwhile, the Russian Orthodox Church is consolidating its influence by assigning Kremlin-aligned clergy to oversee religious life in occupied Zaporizhia. Occupation authorities are coercing Ukrainian students into staffing Russian administrative bodies and working in state-run industries, often under threat of conscription. At the same time, Russian-backed youth programs are organizing mass “educational trips” to Russia to expose Ukrainian children to Soviet-style propaganda and anti-Ukrainian narratives. These actions collectively reflect a systematic campaign of cultural erasure, forced labor, and illegal militarization. Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, May 19. Senior Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, continue to deny the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s government, despite President Vladimir Putin’s professed interest in peace talks. Medvedev's statements at a legal forum underscored Russia’s refusal to engage in meaningful negotiations, claiming Ukraine is a "failed state" and reiterating maximalist demands, including demilitarization and recognition of Russia’s illegal annexations. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Colonel General Valery Solodchuk’s appointment as Central Military District commander, following leadership changes in Russia’s ground forces.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and in the Zaporizhia direction. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Kremlin says Russia will defend its ships in the Baltic Sea with all means available. Moscow warned on Wednesday that it would defend Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea using "all means" necessary after Estonia's failed attempt to seize a Russia-bound oil tanker suspected of violating Western sanctions. During the incident, Russia briefly flew a fighter jet into NATO airspace, according to Estonia. In response, the Kremlin detained a Greek-owned tanker that had recently left an Estonian port—though it was later released—raising fears of disruptions to vital Baltic shipping routes. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the incident demonstrated his country’s readiness to respond “harshly” to perceived threats, and that Moscow could take a wide range of actions within international law. Russia’s Foreign Ministry also accused NATO of aggressive behavior in the Baltic, claiming it endangered freedom of navigation. The exchange underscores growing maritime tensions as Western nations try to enforce sanctions and Russia defends its energy exports. Reuters

Russian fighter jet protects ‘shadow fleet’ vessel in first such move by Moscow, officials say. On May 13, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet entered Estonian airspace to escort the Jaguar, an unflagged oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, after Estonian forces attempted to inspect the vessel. It marked the first known use of Russian military force to shield a shadow fleet ship evading Western sanctions. The move, condemned by Estonian and NATO officials, was seen as Moscow openly tying itself to the fleet. NATO scrambled Portuguese F-16s in response. France and Estonia said the incident reflects growing Kremlin defiance and proof that sanctions are working. Germany hinted that new sanctions may follow. CNN

Trump wants the UK to boost defense spending to 3% by 2029. U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring the UK to raise its defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, years earlier than planned, according to senior U.S. officials cited by The Times on Tuesday. Pentagon officials conveyed Trump’s preference to British counterparts, saying the current 2.3% level is inadequate. While the UK plans to target 2.5% by 2027, Trump’s team wants the 3% benchmark to be reached within the current parliamentary term, potentially costing £17.3 billion annually. British defense officials reportedly agree that more funds are needed sooner, while NATO is expected to adopt a higher overall spending target at its upcoming summit. However, views within the U.S. administration remain inconsistent, and Trump has not issued a final directive. The push comes amid concerns over the UK’s military readiness and strained force levels, with U.S. defense leaders also reviewing their own global command structure, including a potential consolidation of European and African military commands. The Times

Germany Offers to Take the Lead on Joint EU Air Defense Projects. Germany has offered to lead key EU defense projects in air, land, and marine systems as the bloc steps up efforts to boost its military capabilities in response to Russian aggression and uncertainty over U.S. support. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany is offering partners access to its negotiated industrial terms and highlighted Berlin’s expertise in air defense through the European Sky Shield Initiative. The EU is advancing a €150 billion defense fund and new fiscal rules that could mobilize €800 billion. Germany is also deploying a permanent tank brigade in Lithuania, the first such deployment abroad since WWII. The European Commission is preparing proposals to simplify defense procurement and production across member states, including easing regulatory and environmental restrictions to fast-track the building of new defense infrastructure. Bloomberg 

Dutch Government Needs to Spend Up to €19 Billion More to Meet NATO Target. The Netherlands says it may need to increase defense spending by €16–€19 billion annually—about 3.5% of GDP—to meet expected new NATO targets. This follows NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s proposal for members to raise military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, plus an additional 1.5% for related areas like cybersecurity. The Dutch estimate comes as NATO allies prepare for a June summit in The Hague amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who is demanding a 5% GDP defense commitment. Bloomberg 

Ukrainian ex-politician shot and killed outside American school in Madrid. Former Ukrainian politician Andriy Portnov, 51, was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen outside a school in an affluent Madrid suburb on Wednesday. Portnov, a former aide to pro-Russian ex-President Viktor Yanukovich, fled Ukraine in 2014 and had faced investigations and U.S. sanctions. Police say the assailants shot him in the back and head before fleeing. The killing adds to a string of recent high-profile incidents involving Russians and Ukrainians in Spain since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Reuters Euronews The Guardian 

Poland's far-right lays down demands to presidential hopefuls. Ahead of Poland’s June 1 presidential runoff, far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun—who together secured over 20% of the first-round vote—have issued conditions to frontrunners Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki in exchange for possible endorsements. Mentzen, who placed third, demanded that both candidates sign a declaration rejecting tax increases, sending Polish troops to Ukraine, and any further transfer of sovereign powers to the European Union, such as expanding EU authority over national legislation or fiscal policy. Trzaskowski, a centrist, risks alienating his pro-EU and left-leaning supporters if he concedes to far-right positions, while needing their voters to win. Reuters

Romanian far-right candidate Simion claims France interfered in election. Romanian far-right leader George Simion announced Tuesday he will challenge his loss in Sunday’s presidential runoff, alleging foreign interference. Simion, defeated by centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, claimed France, Moldova, and other actors manipulated institutions, media, and voter behavior to sway the outcome. He alleged €100 million was used in Moldova to buy votes and claimed irregularities, such as votes cast by the deceased. Simion also cited Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s claim that France sought to suppress conservative voices, urging the Constitutional Court to call Durov to testify. Despite low expectations of success, Simion called on citizens to file complaints. Politico EU The Guardian Associated Press 

Election analysis reveals right-wing surge across Europe. Despite centrist wins in three major European elections on Sunday, far right groups gained ground, signaling a broader political shift. In Romania, centrist Nicușor Dan defeated far-right leader George Simion in a runoff, thanks to record turnout and strong diaspora and minority support. However, Simion’s rapid rise, following the annulled November election won by ultranationalist Călin Georgescu, underscored growing right-wing momentum. In Poland, liberal Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly led the first round against right-wing Karol Nawrocki. But far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun captured over 20% of the vote, making their support pivotal in the June 1 runoff. Meanwhile, in Portugal, the far-right Chega party surged to become the joint second-largest parliamentary force, gaining ground particularly in rural and post-communist southern regions. Though centrists avoided outright defeat, these elections revealed an emboldened and expanding hard-right presence across key European Union and NATO member states. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. New U.S. intelligence indicates Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, alarming U.S. officials amid President Donald Trump's diplomatic efforts with Tehran. While it is not clear whether Israel has made a final decision, intercepted communications and observed military preparations, such as air munition movements and exercises, suggest a possible imminent attack, multiple U.S. officials told CNN. The intelligence community is divided on whether this is a genuine prelude to action or a pressure tactic aimed at shaping the nuclear negotiations. Trump set a 60-day deadline in March for talks with Iran to succeed, which has now expired. Israel remains concerned that Trump may accept a deal allowing Iran to retain some uranium enrichment, prompting warnings from Israeli officials that they may act alone. However, U.S. support would be critical for a successful strike. Iran, weakened militarily and economically, sees the talks as unlikely to succeed, and a new round may occur in Europe soon. Washington remains committed to diplomacy for now. CNN Reuters 

Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide. Iran and the United States remain at an impasse in nuclear negotiations, with both sides holding firm on opposing red lines. Iran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, while the U.S. insists on a complete cessation of enrichment activities. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dismissed U.S. demands as "excessive and outrageous," expressing skepticism about the success of the talks. Complicating matters, Iran faces severe economic challenges, including sanctions, energy shortages, and a declining currency, and lacks a clear alternative strategy should negotiations fail. While Tehran considers strengthening ties with China and Russia, both nations are currently preoccupied with their own geopolitical issues, limiting their capacity to support Iran. The U.S. and European allies have warned of reinstating U.N. sanctions if no agreement is reached, potentially triggering the "snapback mechanism" as early as August. Reuters

Iran's Khamenei slams 'outrageous' US demands in nuclear talks. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, criticized U.S. demands in nuclear negotiations as “excessive and outrageous,” expressing skepticism about the likelihood of a successful deal. He dismissed Washington’s insistence that Iran halt uranium enrichment, calling it illogical. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Deputy Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi echoed Khamenei’s concerns, warning that talks would collapse if the U.S. continued to oppose Iran’s domestic enrichment program. President Trump recently threatened severe consequences if Iran does not quickly accept a new deal. The negotiations remain stalled, with a potential fifth round tentatively proposed for Rome, but no date confirmed. Reuters Al Jazeera BBC  

Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza as criticism of Israel grows. Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday killed at least 85 Palestinians in Gaza, including 18 people—some of them children—at two residential homes and a school sheltering displaced families. Over the past nine days, more than 500 people have reportedly been killed amid intensified Israeli military operations, which Israel says target Hamas militants using civilian areas for cover. The strikes occurred despite mounting international criticism, with Britain suspending trade talks with Israel and imposing sanctions, and EU leaders calling for a review of their trade relationship with Israel. The United Nations reports that no aid has yet been distributed following Israel’s easing of a blockade, though some trucks have entered Gaza. Ceasefire talks in Qatar appear to have stalled, and Israeli leaders have vowed to escalate the campaign. Meanwhile, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepens, with widespread hunger and displacement affecting nearly all of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents. Reuters Associated Press

Netanyahu Confronts New Political Dilemma as Allies Push for End to Gaza War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting international pressure to end the Gaza war, as allies including the U.K., European Union, and U.S. express growing alarm over civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering. On Tuesday, Britain suspended trade talks with Israel, summoned its ambassador, and imposed sanctions on violent West Bank settlers, calling the Gaza offensive “monstrous.” The EU is reviewing its trade agreement with Israel, with 17 of 27 member states backing the move. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Minister David Lammy condemned Israel’s actions, including restrictions on aid and comments from far-right Israeli ministers advocating population displacement. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has called for a ceasefire, further isolating Netanyahu. Aid access remains limited despite Israel’s recent concessions. With over 53,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023 and widespread hunger in Gaza, Netanyahu faces a dilemma: continue the war and risk diplomatic fallout—or stop and risk losing his governing coalition. Wall Street Journal Reuters Financial Times Politico EU Reuters

EU to Lift Economic Sanctions on Syria in a Bid to Bolster Stability. The European Union agreed on Tuesday to lift its remaining economic sanctions on Syria, following the United States’ similar move a week earlier, in a coordinated effort to stabilize the country after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The EU aims to support Syria’s reconstruction under its new leadership, led by President Ahmed al-Shara, despite concerns about sectarian violence and the country's fragile political direction. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized enabling Syrians to rebuild a peaceful and inclusive nation. The lifted sanctions are expected to revitalize Syria’s economy by restoring banking access and unfreezing assets. However, arms-related sanctions and restrictions on figures involved in repression remain. The decision reflects growing concern that maintaining harsh sanctions could fuel further instability. Syria’s foreign minister called the move a sign of “international will” to support the nation’s recovery, although the U.S. and EU remain cautious about the country’s democratic trajectory. New York Times France24

U.S. Fears of Imminent Collapse of Syria Government Led to Easing of Sanctions, Rubio Says. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that the U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Syria was driven by fears the country was just weeks away from collapse and a return to full-scale civil war. Rubio said the Syrian transitional government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, was on the brink of fracturing, risking renewed sectarian violence and national disintegration. Although initially skeptical of Sharaa, designated a terrorist by the U.S., President Donald Trump reversed course after meeting him in Saudi Arabia, influenced by regional leaders. Rubio stressed that engaging with Syria’s new leadership offered at least a chance of stabilization, whereas disengagement guaranteed failure. His remarks provided a more nuanced rationale than Trump’s public explanation, which emphasized Saudi and Turkish influence. Rubio’s testimony underscores growing urgency in Washington and Europe. Wall Street Journal 

Ambrey says Panama-flagged products container reportedly interdicted northwest of Iranian port. British maritime security firm Ambrey reported that a Panama-flagged, UAE-linked products tanker was allegedly hijacked about 51 nautical miles northwest of Iran’s Bandar-e Jask port. An urgency broadcast indicated the vessel had been "hijacked." Ambrey noted the tanker appears to be part of Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet,” used to evade sanctions, and that a sister ship has previously been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Fighter Jets and Missiles Get a Boost from the India-Pakistan Clash. Pakistan’s recent claim that it downed Indian fighter jets using Chinese-made J-10C aircraft and PL-15 missiles has drawn global attention, especially in China and Taiwan. Islamabad’s assertion, though unconfirmed by India, could mark the first reported combat use of J-10Cs, boosting Chinese confidence in their military hardware. Chinese state media and military commentators hailed it as proof of Beijing’s rising defense capabilities, with some Taiwanese analysts warning their air force may struggle against such jets. The clash is also viewed as a symbolic showdown between Western and Chinese arms, as India increasingly relies on Western suppliers while Pakistan aligns more with Beijing. However, New Delhi claimed it jammed Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defense systems in 23 minutes, casting doubt on their effectiveness. China’s government has remained cautious in public statements, likely to preserve improving ties with India. Analysts in Taipei see the episode as a warning to remain vigilant amid rising regional military tensions. New York Times 

Pakistan blames India for bomb targeting school bus that killed five in restive Balochistan. A suicide car bombing targeted a school bus in Khuzdar, southwestern Pakistan, on Wednesday, killing five people—at least three of them children—and injuring 38 others. The attack occurred as the bus transported students to a military-run school in the violence-prone Balochistan province, which has long suffered from a separatist insurgency led by groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). No group has claimed responsibility, but suspicion has fallen on Baloch separatists. Pakistani officials, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, condemned the attack and blamed India, alleging it used proxies to destabilize Balochistan—an accusation New Delhi has historically denied. The military echoed this claim, calling the bombing a “cowardly” act. The incident adds to growing fears of broader conflict amid heightened Pakistan-India tensions, and revives painful memories of past attacks on schools, including the 2014 Peshawar massacre. Associated Press Reuters 

China isn’t getting rid of its controls over rare earths, despite trade truce with US. Despite agreeing to a 90-day trade truce with the U.S., China appears to be maintaining its strict export controls on rare earth minerals, a strategic move to retain leverage in ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions. While U.S. officials claimed China would lift these restrictions, there is no evidence this has occurred. Instead, Beijing has launched crackdowns on mineral smuggling and tightened enforcement of a licensing system requiring government approval for each shipment. Rare earth magnets—critical to electronics, defense, and automotive industries—are now subject to case-by-case export permits, giving China visibility into supply chains and potential leverage over U.S. defense contractors. Although some licenses have been granted, notably to German firms like Volkswagen, access for American defense companies remains uncertain. Analysts warn China’s dominance in rare earth processing and its selective use of export controls amounts to a powerful geopolitical weapon, fostering unpredictability and reinforcing its influence in global supply chains. CNN

Philippines, U.S. conduct joint maritime exercises in South China Sea. For the first time, U.S. and Philippine Coast Guard vessels participated in joint maritime exercises alongside the Philippine Navy and Air Force in the contested South China Sea, the Philippine military has announced. Held on Tuesday near Palawan and Occidental Mindoro, the drills included the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Stratton and a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft. The exercise featured communication and search-and-rescue drills. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief Romeo Brawner stressed the exercises’ role in enhancing defense capabilities and strengthening regional partnerships. Tensions in the South China Sea remain high, as China continues to assert broad territorial claims rejected by a 2016 international tribunal ruling. The joint drills highlight growing Washington-Manila cooperation in the face of increasing Chinese assertiveness in the strategically vital maritime region. Reuters Bloomberg

AFRICA

Sudan’s military says it took full control of Greater Khartoum region that includes the capital. Sudan’s military announced on Tuesday that it has fully recaptured the Greater Khartoum region—including the capital and its sister cities Omdurman and Khartoum North—from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major milestone in a civil war that began in April 2023. The RSF has not commented on the military's claim. Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdullah declared Khartoum “completely free of rebels” following intense battles in western and southern Omdurman. The conflict, which erupted from a power struggle between the military and RSF, has killed at least 24,000 people and displaced about 13 million. Parts of Sudan face famine, and the war has been marked by widespread atrocities, including brutal war crimes and crimes against humanity, particularly in Darfur. The military’s latest gain could shift momentum, though humanitarian conditions across the country remain dire. Associated Press

South Africa’s Ramaphosa seeking to salvage ties with Trump. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to host South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House on May 21 amid heightened tensions over Trump’s accusation that Pretoria is committing “genocide” against white farmers. Ramaphosa, determined to mend ties, aims to counter what his government calls misinformation. The meeting follows Trump’s executive order cutting aid to South Africa, as well as the successful launch of a program relocating white South Africans to the U.S. as refugees. South African officials reject the genocide narrative, blaming high crime—not racial motives—for farmer deaths. Trump is also expected to address controversial chants and race-based trade laws, which tech billionaire Elon Musk has criticized. Pretoria may consider easing its laws to defuse tensions, particularly regarding Musk’s Starlink. While some fear Ramaphosa could be publicly embarrassed, he insists he expects a productive discussion focused on trade and restoring diplomatic relations. Associated Press BBC Reuters Bloomberg

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

China assails U.S. warning to companies on use of Huawei AI Ascend chips. The Chinese government has said that a recent U.S. warning to global companies concerning use of Huawei AI chips "seriously undermined the consensus reached at the high-level talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva.”  Although a Chinese spokesperson acknowledged that the Commerce Department has "adjusted" its wording on Huawei chips, they said the U.S. guidance amounted to “discriminatory measures” and demanded that the US “correct its mistakes.” Commerce has changed its original statement on “the risks of using PRC advanced computing ICs, including specific Huawei Ascend chips,” removing a reference to “anywhere in the world." The May 13 Commerce Department guidance states that the use of Huawei’s Ascend chips “risks” violating U.S. export controls. Bloomberg CNBC

Malaysian ministry retracts statement on plans for Huawei-equipped AI system.  Malaysia has retracted statements by an official of the Communications Ministry who on Monday indicated the nation's plans to construct an AI system based on Huawei Ascend GPU-powered servers.  Deputy Minister of Communications Teo Nie Ching announced that Malaysia would deploy 3,000 units of Huawei's AI chips by 2026 and noted that the Chinese DeepSeek startup would make one of its AI models available for the country's use.  Teo’s office later retracted her remarks without explanation, leaving unclear if the project will proceed.  The announcement drew comment from the White House in the form of an online post by AI czar David Sacks, who wrote “as I’ve been warning, the full Chinese stack is here."  The administration has pressured Malaysia to crack down on semiconductor transshipments to China.  The country also is involved in a court case in Singapore, where charges of fraud have been leveled at three persons for allegedly disguising the ultimate customer of AI servers containing Nvidia chips. Malaysian officials reportedly are conducting an investigation.  Bloomberg

Nvidia CEO says U.S. restrictions on H20 chip exports to China ‘deeply uninformed’.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has criticized Washington's plan to restrict sales of its H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to China, stating the administration's action is "deeply uninformed."  Huang described the latest U.S. restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips – since early 2024 the most advanced ones the firm could sell to China – as “deeply painful” and underscored the high costs for Nvidia and the longer-term impact on the AI ecosystem.  Huang said the most recent chip restriction has forced Nvidia to write off around $5.5 billion in inventory and scrap potential sales of $15 billon to the Chinese market.  Huang explained that AI technology is a “full-stack thing” including chips, fabrication facilities, infrastructure and software.  Protecting one layer at the expense of everything else, Huang said, was “nonsensical."  South China Morning Post

Senate Democrats urge administration to create ‘guardrails’ on AI tech sales to Gulf states.  A group of Senate Democrats has written to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging the Trump administration to reassess the AI technology deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.  The senators argue that expanded sales of AI chips to these countries risk exposing advanced technology to China and Russia and could limit supplies available for U.S. companies.  The announced deals, the senators said, “amount to a breathtaking rollback of export control restrictions that have helped maintain the U.S. technological edge to ensure the United States wins the AI race."  The group, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Elizabeth Warner, called for guardrails on sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent sensitive technology leaking to China and Russia.  The senators acknowledged that the two Gulf states are important regional partners but cited their previous commercial ties to Chinese entities including Huawei Technologies.  Bloomberg

Multiple Russian government services impacted by DDoS cyberattack ‘from abroad.’  Access to major Russian state services, including the FNS tax agency, has been disrupted due to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack "originating from abroad," according to the Downdetector monitoring site.  The outages affected Goskey, the service for managing secure digital keys as well as Saby, responsible for documents.  Russian businesses reportedly were unable to access a government alcohol distribution service and a system involved in anti-counterfeiting operations.  No hacker group has claimed responsibility for the latest DDoS attacks.  A number of cyberattacks conducted during the Ukraine-Russia cyberwar have followed important political events, with the latest incidents coming on the heels of President Donald Trump's two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The Record

New Dutch law expands espionage law to encompass cyberespionage, computer offenses. In a move to protect national security, critical infrastructure, and sensitive technologies, a new Dutch law imposes criminal penalties for a broader range of espionage activities, including digital espionage.  By extending existing espionage laws, the legislation makes it a criminal offense to share state secrets. The updated law also authorizes criminal charges to be placed for leaking sensitive information not classified as a state secret or acting for a foreign government in a way that harm Dutch interests.  Computer-related offenses can result in sentences of up to eight years in prison. Justice and Security Minister David van Weel emphasized the need to strengthen resilience against attacks and threats from abroad.  The Record

Industry critics point to government blind spots, tardy notifications on Salt Typhoon attacks. The Salt Typhoon breach, a massive Chinese cyberattack on telecommunication companies, came as a complete surprise to some of the firms targeted, who were disturbed to learn about the Chinese cyber campaign from the Wall Street Journal rather than the federal government.   One industry source said it was "disconcerting" that large companies did not learn about it first from government agencies. A source told CyberScoop, “the engagement was not treated with the kind of respect it deserved."  Other critics told CyberScoop the dearth of information and notification was only one of multiple government failings in responding to Salt Typhoon.  Among the complaints, sources said Investigators suffered “failure of imagination” in not better anticipating the breaches.  Others pointed to the vagueness of government warnings about vulnerabilities and risks before the breaches were discovered.  In defense of the government, a current CISA official said that in collaboration with the FBI, companies were notified as quickly as possible and were assisted in deploying countermeasures, with new information sometimes provided on an hourly basis. Moreover, government relations with industry have improved over time.  CyberScoop

Google unveils ‘personal, proactive’ AI consumer services at annual conference.  Google has announced plans to put AI into the hands of more Web surfers even as it previewed a $249.99-a-month subscription for AI power users as the company tries to deflect growing competition in the AI sector. During its annual I/O developers conference, Google unveiled the plans along with multiple demos, including new smart glasses.  Google disclosed its vision for Google Search, with enhancements to allow customer to pose everything from simple queries to complex research questions.  Google said that its AI services would be personal and proactive, making phone calls to a store on a user's behalf or generating practice tests for students.  A major update presented at the conference involves allowing users across the U.S. to switch Google Search into AI Mode, which replaces the Web's traditional responses with computer-generated answers for complicated queries.  CEO Sundar Pichai touted the cost effectiveness of Google's AI services, noting that "over and over, we've been able to deliver the best models at the most effective price point."  Reuters

Government contractors are lining up to work with DOGE. Security contractors are adjusting to the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) sweeping cost-cutting by pitching their tech as essential, despite rising privacy and national security concerns. As DOGE slashes federal jobs, it's leaning more on private vendors to centralize citizen data and explore AI-driven workforce replacements. Companies like Axonius and ServiceNow are marketing tools to help agencies pass DOGE audits, while OpenAI has shown interest in FDA collaboration. Meanwhile, lobbying by firms like Accenture and Booz Allen has intensified. Cybersecurity firms face mounting pressure, with Mitre and Deloitte planning layoffs amid contract losses. Though some executives say federal work remains steady, the broader ecosystem is strained. Courts have blocked some DOGE initiatives, and lawmakers are alarmed by deep cuts to the cyber workforce. Critics warn that, under the guise of efficiency, DOGE risks compromising both civil liberties and national security. Axios 

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