Open Source Report for Wednesday, April 23, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, April 23, 2025

White House says U.S. is ‘setting the stage’ on potential trade deal with China

London peace talks downgraded as Kyiv rejects US plan to recognize Crimea as Russian

U.S. expands sanctions on Iran to target booming gas exports

ANALYSIS: Amid a trade war, Xi Jinping may be purging China’s armed forces

Dutch intelligence says Russia expanding cyber operations against European infrastructure

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Can the CIA and U.S. military stop the Mexican cartels? President Trump began his second term by designating Mexico’s drug cartels as international terrorist organizations—a move that has intensified speculation about potential U.S. military action. The Central Intelligence Agency has increased drone surveillance, and narcotrafficking now tops the national security threat list. While the Pentagon hasn't authorized strikes, officials say they could present Trump with options. Experts, however, question the strategy. “Military strikes would impact the current leadership of the cartels, but unlike traditional terror groups, drug trafficking is about money and power,” said former Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) operations chief Ray Donovan. “Others will replace those positions.” Intelligence sharing is deeply compromised. Former DEA agent Michael Chavarria recalled, “We called [drug kingpin Chapo Guzmán] Casper the Ghost, because every time we passed information to… the military, they would have just missed him. The teapot was still hot, food on the table, but no Chapo.” With cartels entrenched in Mexico’s economy and politics, many believe real change requires local will to dismantle corruption. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: The National Security Rationale for U.S.-Funded Academic Research. Ambassador Patrick Duddy warns that the Trump administration’s decision to freeze or cancel billions in federal research grants to top U.S. universities—over issues like antisemitism, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, poses serious national security risks. He argues that America’s technological edge in defense depends on the symbiotic relationship between the federal government, academia, and private industry. Universities such as Harvard, Columbia, and Penn conduct crucial basic and applied science research funded by the Department of Defense. Disrupting this ecosystem, Duddy says, could erode U.S. military superiority just as global threats rise—from China’s tech investment to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Technologies such as GPS, lithium batteries, and drone systems originated in university research. As U.S. funding lags behind China’s, he cautions that weakening this partnership risks long-term strategic decline. “Preserving the technology ecosystem... is clearly in the U.S. national interest,” he concludes, regardless of political disputes with academia. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

White House says U.S. is ‘setting the stage’ on potential trade deal with China. The Trump administration on Tuesday signaled a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, boosting investor optimism. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said a trade deal is progressing, adding, “Everyone involved wants to see a trade deal happen and the ball is moving in the right direction.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that the world’s two largest economies will have to find ways to de-escalate. That de-escalation will come very soon, Bessent said during an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media. Tariffs remain steep—145% on Chinese imports—with China responding in kind. Markets rallied on the news. Axios Bloomberg Reuters

Rubio unveils sweeping reorganization of State Department. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has unveiled a major reorganization of the State Department, aiming to eliminate bureaucratic "bloat" and realign the agency with Trump’s “America First” agenda. The overhaul includes cutting 132 offices and 700 positions, with a 15% reduction in U.S.-based staff. Programs focusing on human rights, war crimes, and democracy will be scaled back or dismantled. A new Bureau of Emerging Threats will be created to address cybersecurity and AI. Critics warn of unclear impacts and lost expertise, while some diplomats expressed relief that the Bureau of African Affairs will remain intact. Washington Post New York Times

ANALYSIS: Under Hegseth, Chaos Prevails at the Pentagon.The New York Times is out with a new report that says in his first three months as Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth has generated chaos at the Pentagon, drawing criticism for inexperience, disorganization, and leaks of classified military plans via private Signal chats. His handpicked team has unraveled—three aides were escorted out, and a fourth publicly denounced him. Bureaucratic dysfunction has stalled major initiatives, including President Donald Trump’s missile defense plans. Hegseth’s office is plagued by infighting, mistrust of career officials, and a culture of loyalty tests. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s cost-cutting drive to slash 200,000 civilian defense jobs has clashed with Hegseth’s concerns over crippling essential functions. Hegseth faces internal pushback, Senate scrutiny, and calls for his dismissal, even from some Republicans. Despite this, Trump continues to back him. Hegseth insists he’s restoring a “warrior ethos,” sharing frequent workout posts with troops while overseeing a department struggling under his leadership. His future may hinge on improving operations and rebuilding trust within the Pentagon. New York Times

Hegseth received details of impending military strike via CENTCOM’s secure system, shared them in Signal chat with wife, brother, others.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took details of military plans transmitted by the U.S. Central Command via a secure government system created for sending classified information, then shared them with his wife, brother and others on a Signal chat, NBC reported Tuesday.  Army Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, used the Defense Department's secure U.S. government system to send Hegseth detailed information about an impending U.S. air attack on Houthi positions in Yemen. The information included times when U.S. fighters would take off and when they were expected to strike their targets.  Less than 10 minutes after he received Kurilla’s message, NBC reported, Hegseth relayed some of the details via a commercial Signal app on his personal phone to two group chats. One of them connected other national security officials and, by accident, the editor of The Atlantic magazine, and the other included Hegseth’s wife, brother, personal attorney and some of his aides in the Pentagon. NBC News  New York Times

‘An amateur person’: GOP Rep. Bacon says Hegseth should go. Rep. Don Bacon, a former Air Force general and GOP member of the House Armed Services Committee, became the first Republican lawmaker to publicly suggest President Trump should fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “I like him on Fox,” Bacon said, “but does he have the experience to lead one of the largest organizations in the world? That’s a concern.” He slammed Hegseth’s leaked Signal chats on Yemen as “totally unacceptable,” adding, “He’s acting like he’s above the law — and that shows an amateur person.” Bacon warned, “There’s a lot of smoke coming out of the Pentagon.” Politico

The vicious rivalries tearing apart Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon. Pete Hegseth’s tenure as defense secretary is unraveling amid a toxic power struggle within his senior staff. Initially brought in as a figurehead surrounded by experienced aides, Hegseth instead empowered rivals who turned on each other in a chaotic scramble for influence. The feud, centered around his chief of staff Joe Kasper and three close advisers — Dan Caldwell, Darin Selnick, and Colin Carroll — exploded in firings, leaks, and media drama that have destabilized the Pentagon. Kasper, accused of mismanagement and creating a hostile workplace, allegedly orchestrated the firings to consolidate power. Critics cite his erratic behavior and lack of leadership skills, including unprofessional conduct in meetings. Tensions escalated with suspicions of orchestrated leaks, leaving Hegseth increasingly paranoid and isolated. The internal meltdown has reinforced concerns over Hegseth’s lack of experience and cast doubt on his ability to lead the department, with one official calling it “a complete meltdown in the building.” Politico

Hegseth Delivers What Trump Wants but with Unwanted Controversy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is delivering exactly what President Trump wants—aggressive action against “woke” military culture, tougher immigration enforcement, and an “America First” approach to allies. But he’s also bringing unwanted controversy. Hegseth shared sensitive details of a planned U.S. strike on Houthi militants via Signal, an unsecured chat app—twice, including in a group with his wife and brother. He’s also purged staff and blamed them for leaks. Despite bipartisan concern and a Pentagon investigation, Trump is standing by him so far, saying he is doing “a great job.” Hegseth remains unapologetic, pushing loyalty and image over protocol and discretion. Bloomberg

How a Lloyd Austin aide became Pete Hegseth’s ‘only guy standing.’ Col. Ricky Buria, once a junior military assistant under former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, has rapidly risen within the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth. After surviving staff purges, Buria became a trusted advisor, transitioning into a senior civilian role following his resignation from the Marine Corps. Despite concerns over his limited experience, he's reportedly under consideration for chief of staff. His unusual ascent reflects both a thin staffing bench and growing trust from Hegseth, who values loyalty and proximity. Defense News

Musk is stepping back from government work amid plummeting Tesla sales. Elon Musk announced he will shift more focus back to Tesla following a steep decline in the company’s Q1 2025 performance — a 20% drop in vehicle sales revenue and a 71% plunge in net income. Musk acknowledged “blowback” from his government role, particularly with DOGE, the data initiative he led under President Trump. Though Musk defended his efforts to cut waste in government, he admitted Tesla suffered amid economic uncertainty and tariffs. He reaffirmed support for lower tariffs, stating, “If America goes down, we all go down with it, including Tesla and everyone else.” PoliticoAxios Al JazeeraBBC CBS News   

Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE in May. President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates from May 13-16, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Tuesday. The trip, aimed at strengthening diplomatic ties, will mark Trump’s second foreign visit since returning to office. These Gulf nations have supported U.S. efforts in brokering ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza. Trump will hold multiple bilateral meetings during the tour, which will follow his upcoming visit to Italy for Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday. Politico

Trump’s red-hot war on terror. Since returning to office this year, President Trump has dramatically escalated America’s “war on terror,” authorizing a surge in airstrikes across Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. The Trump administration has decentralized decision-making for strikes, favoring rapid, lethal responses over risk-averse policies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and counter-terror chief Sebastian Gorka embrace a hardline strategy, with Somalia’s al-Shabab and Yemen’s Houthis seen as key threats. Intelligence officials warn of a resurgent al-Qaeda and Islamic State, while the administration also labels Mexican drug cartels as terrorists. Critics argue the approach is aggressive but lacks strategic clarity and may worsen regional instability. The Economist

Meet the 8 MAGA Outlets Disrupting the White House Briefing Room. Eight MAGA-aligned media figures have become regulars in the White House briefing room under the second Trump administration, often challenging the dominance of legacy media. Together, they form a “conservative corner” that challenges traditional press narratives: 1. Brian Glenn (Real America’s Voice) – A former host at Right Side Broadcasting Network, Glenn is known for his provocative coverage and ties to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; 2. Natalie Winters (War Room) – Co-host of Steve Bannon’s show, Winters, 24, is outspoken against both mainstream and conservative media, and focuses on Chinese Communist Party influence operations. 3. Mary Margaret Olohan (The Daily Wire) – A culture-war-focused correspondent aligned with Ben Shapiro’s brand; she also recently authored a book on detransitioners. 4. Cara Castronuova (Lindell TV) – Former boxer and fitness celebrity, now reporting for Mike Lindell’s network, with a focus on Jan. 6 narratives. 5. Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell (The Daily Signal) – Hillsdale College graduate aligned with the Heritage Foundation’s. 6. Daniel Baldwin (One America News) – A longstanding pro-Trump presence with OAN, operating out of a North Lawn tent. 7. Monica Paige Luisi (Turning Point USA) – Focuses on economic concerns for young conservatives, known for confrontational street interviews. 8. Matt Boyle (Breitbart) – The veteran of the group, Boyle leads Breitbart’s D.C. bureau and often scores exclusive administration access. Politico 

Judge halts shutdown of Voice of America. A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration's attempt to dismantle Voice of America (VOA), ruling the move likely violated both statutory and constitutional protections. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth ordered immediate reinstatement of VOA employees and contractors, and restoration of funding to affiliated networks like Radio Free Asia. He condemned the administration’s actions as arbitrary and capricious, noting the cuts defied even President Donald Trump's own executive order, which required programs to maintain minimum legal service levels. Lamberth emphasized that the shutdown endangered journalists—especially overseas—and deprived millions of people in press-restricted regions of a vital news source. He also warned that the administration’s failure to honor congressional appropriations represented a serious breach of legislative authority. The decision halts one of Trump’s boldest attempts to reshape federal media and highlights mounting legal resistance to broader bureaucratic rollbacks. VOA, operating since World War II, serves over 425 million listeners worldwide, many in countries lacking independent media. Politico New York Times BBC Australian Broadcasting Corporation 

Lockheed wants to turn F-35 into a ‘Ferrari’ with sixth-generation tech. Lockheed Martin plans to upgrade its F-35 and F-22 fighters with sixth-generation technology developed during its failed bid for the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract. CEO Jim Taiclet said the company aims to create “fifth generation-plus” jets—offering 80% of sixth-gen capability at half the cost. Enhancements include better stealth, sensors, and drone integration. Lockheed hopes to export some of these upgrades to allies, pending U.S. approval. Taiclet said, “We’re going to take the F-35’s chassis and turn it into a Ferrari.” Defense News

Air Force warns airmen, veterans of foreign intelligence recruitment ploy. The U.S. Air Force is warning airmen and veterans about foreign intelligence recruitment schemes disguised as high-paying consulting jobs. These offers, often sent via social media, are increasingly sophisticated and target those with military experience. China’s military has been especially aggressive, using private firms to secretly recruit Western talent to train People’s Liberation Army aviators. Breaking Defense

NYC mayor, Trump’s border czar hail charges against 27 alleged Tren de Aragua members.  New York City Mayor Eric Adams and President Donald Trump’s border czar Thomas Homan on Tuesday jointly announced federal charges against 27 alleged members and associates of the Tren de Aragua gang, a violent Venezuelan criminal group. This marks the first use of federal racketeering charges against the gang. The charges include sex and drug trafficking, armed robbery, and firearms possession. “Every member of TDA should be on the run,” stated Homan. 21 of the 27 people charged are in custody, while six others are still at large. Adams, who is now running for reelection as an independent, has aligned closely with Trump’s immigration crackdown, including allowing ICE to operate at Rikers Island — a move currently blocked by a court order pending a hearing. Adams defended the collaboration, stressing the importance of public safety over immigration status, and rejecting criticisms that law enforcement has targeted otherwise law-abiding immigrants. Associated Press U.S. Department of Justice USA Today CBS News 

U.S.’s highly coveted H-1B visa under the microscope as Trump administration ramps up focus.  The H-1B visa program, which allows American employers to hire foreign workers with specialized skills, is under renewed scrutiny amid broader immigration crackdowns by the Trump administration. Although Trump has focused mainly on deporting undocumented immigrants and revoking deportation protections, recent unusual requests for additional information and biometrics from H-1B applicants and renewals have raised concerns among immigration lawyers. These requests deviate from standard procedures and came without prior notice or the usual public comment period. The H-1B program, capped annually at 85,000 visas, is widely used in the tech industry, particularly by Indian nationals. While supporters argue it fills crucial workforce gaps, critics say it both undercuts American workers and exploits foreign labor. The issue has divided Trump’s Republican Party, with some business leaders supporting it and others in Trump’s base opposing it. Recent visa revocations affecting over 1,000 international students and increasing scrutiny on legal immigration programs suggest possible future actions against employment-related visas, causing uncertainty among applicants and their advocates. Associated Press 

Costa Rica to allow migrants deported from U.S. to stay in the country for 3 months. Costa Rica on Tuesday said it will grant some of the roughly 200 migrants deported from the U.S. and currently detained in the country permission to stay and move freely for three months on humanitarian grounds. This follows a lawsuit filed by human rights lawyers accusing Costa Rica of violating the rights of 81 migrant children held in poor conditions without access to education or legal support. The migrants, primarily from countries like Afghanistan, Russia, and China, had been stuck in detention for months after being deported to Panama and Costa Rica under Trump administration policies. Associated Press New York Times 

Antisemitic incidents hit record level in 2024. Antisemitic incidents in the U.S. hit a record high in 2024, according to a new Anti-Defamation League (ADL) report. The ADL documented 9,354 incidents of assault, harassment, and vandalism—a 5% increase from 2023 and an 893% rise over the past decade. Many incidents followed the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, with 58% tied to Israel-related rhetoric. College campuses saw a particularly sharp rise, with 1,694 incidents—a jump of 84% year-over-year. ADL officials warn this reflects a “fundamental shift” in American society, not just a temporary spike, as antisemitism becomes a daily reality for many Jewish Americans. Axios Associated Press 

Major hospital in central Haiti closes amid relentless gang violence. A leading hospital in Haiti, the University Hospital of Mirebalais, has effectively shut down due to escalating gang violence, particularly in the wake of recent attacks on the central city of Mirebalais. The hospital, which is located around 34 miles northeast of Port-au-Prince, served as a key medical center for complex cases and saw about 850 patients daily. The facility began transferring patients in early April following assaults by the Viv Ansanm gang, which also orchestrated a large prison break in March. The closure marks a significant setback for Haiti’s already strained healthcare system. Other organizations like Doctors Without Borders have also suspended operations due to rising insecurity. The U.N. has warned that limited funding may jeopardize even minimal support in the country. Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

London peace talks downgraded as Kyiv rejects US plan to recognize Crimea as Russian. High-level Ukraine peace talks in London on Wednesday were downgraded after President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled plans to attend, leaving senior U.S. officials, led by Keith Kellogg, the envoy to Ukraine, to participate in the discussions. Rubio’s cancellation also postpones a meeting that was due to take place with foreign ministers from Britain, Ukraine, France and Germany. A European official told Reuters that Rubio had expressed concern that Ukraine could revert to its previous tough positions, making any breakthrough at the talks impossible. Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, is still attending and is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Lammy. Zelensky has rejected any territorial concessions, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the conflict along current frontlines. President Donald Trump and Rubio have warned that the U.S. may abandon peace efforts if progress stalls. Britain and France, aiming to keep Europe central in negotiations, are exploring plans to send foreign peacekeepers—though experts question their viability without U.S. military support. Sky News  Reuters Associated Press BBC  New York Times Bloomberg 

Trump's ‘final offer’ for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation. President Donald Trump has presented what he calls a “final offer” for peace in Ukraine, proposing significant concessions to Russia. The U.S. document, given to Ukrainian officials in Paris, includes U.S. recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea and unofficial recognition of Kremlin control over much of the territory it has occupied since 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to pause Russia's invasion along the current front lines as part of a potential deal. Sources indicate that the Trump administration’s plan also includes a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO but can become a member of the European Union. The deal is also said to include the lifting of sanctions imposed against Russia since the original 2014 invasion and renewed economic cooperation with the U.S, especially in the energy and industrial sectors. In return, Ukraine would receive vague security guarantees from European partners, limited territorial recovery, and reconstruction assistance with unspecified funding. The plan also proposes U.S. control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, to benefit both countries. Ukrainian officials view the offer as heavily skewed in Russia’s favor, offering concrete gains to Moscow while giving Kyiv only vague assurances. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who recently met with Putin, is expected to return to Moscow for further talks. However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Witkoff will skip today’s peace discussions in London, signaling ongoing divisions over the plan. Axios  

Vance Says Territory Concessions Needed for Ukraine-Russia Deal. In India following a tour of the Taj Mahal on Wednesday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that the United States has proposed a “very explicit” peace plan to Russia and Ukraine. The plan includes territorial concessions from both sides and a freeze along current battle lines, which would mean greater losses for Ukraine. Vance said the U.S. is willing to recognize Russia’s control of Crimea and ease sanctions against Russia if a deal is reached. While optimistic, he reiterated Trump administration warnings that the U.S. is prepared to walk away if negotiations stall, emphasizing the need to “freeze this thing” to stop the killing. Bloomberg

Zelensky Pushes Back on U.S. Peace Plan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russian control of Crimea in exchange for a cease-fire, calling it unconstitutional: “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” He warned that Russia must first show “serious steps, not childishness,” before talks proceed. Zelensky dismissed U.S. suggestions to abandon NATO ambitions or allow foreign operation of Ukraine’s nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia. “It will not work without Ukraine and Ukraine’s technical knowledge,” Zelensky said. A poll conducted earlier this year by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 39% percent of Ukrainians would be willing to give up territory as part of a deal to end the war, up from 8% in late 2022. Still, 50% of Ukrainians remain opposed to territorial concessions. Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky warns against US withdrawal from peace effort. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine-Russia peace talks would be “a very dangerous moment,” urging President Trump to keep pressuring Russia. He rejected any deal that recognizes Crimea as Russian or abandons NATO hopes. Zelensky stressed, “Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., Russia is an enemy.” Kyiv Independent

U.S. not pushing for Ukraine's demilitarization as part of peace deal. Some of Washington's ideas for ending Russia’s war on Ukraine are likely to displease Moscow. Two diplomats told Reuters the U.S. was not pushing a Russian demand to demilitarize Ukraine and was not opposed to a European force as part of future security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has opposed a European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russia and Ukraine, Under Trump Pressure, Signal Openness to Direct Talks. Russia and Ukraine have signaled openness to direct peace talks under pressure from President Trump, who is pushing for a cease-fire and negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed a one-month halt to strikes on civilian targets, while Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with interest in defining terms “in a bilateral format.” Though both sides appear eager to show willingness, active strikes continue, including deadly drone attacks in Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow soon, while Ukrainian officials meet with Western counterparts in London. Despite the rhetoric, deep mistrust and ongoing violence complicate prospects for meaningful negotiations. New York Times

Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled a willingness to halt the war in Ukraine along current front lines, telling President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff that Moscow could drop claims to Ukrainian-held areas of four occupied regions. In exchange, the U.S. is reportedly considering recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea and parts of those regions. European officials warn this could pressure Kyiv into an unfavorable deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains open to talks but refuses to concede Crimea. Proposed peace terms include ceasefire monitoring by European forces and Ukraine pledging not to reclaim territory by force. Financial Times

Zelensky Says He Wants to Meet Trump in Vatican at Papal Funeral. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he hopes to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the Vatican during Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday. This comes as Trump threatens to withdraw support for Ukraine unless a peace deal is reached soon. Zelensky said Ukraine is open to discussing a ceasefire at upcoming talks in London, but only if Russia agrees unconditionally. He rejected any recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea and noted Ukraine’s ongoing negotiations with the U.S. over a natural resources agreement. Russian drone attacks continue to escalate. Bloomberg

Trump administration unwinds efforts to investigate Russian war crimes. Since taking office, the Trump administration has systematically dismantled initiatives aimed at holding Russia accountable for war crimes in Ukraine. On Tuesday, The Washington Post reported that the administration withdrew from a key European Union-led accountability group, disbanded the Justice Department’s War Crimes Accountability Team, ended efforts to seize sanctioned Russian oligarch assets, and terminated the legally mandated position coordinating intelligence on Russian atrocities. Vice President JD Vance and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz have not replaced these efforts. Critics, including former officials and lawmakers, say the U.S. is retreating from its leadership role in defending international law and justice. Washington Post

Zelensky says Chinese citizens working at drone production site in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Chinese citizens are working at a drone factory in Russia and suggested Moscow may have stolen Chinese drone technology. His remarks appear to soften earlier accusations that Beijing was directly supplying arms to Russia. Zelensky said Kyiv is sharing intelligence with China through official channels and noted that the recruitment of Chinese nationals into Russia’s military raises concerns. China denies aiding Russia militarily and urged all parties to avoid “irresponsible remarks.” South China Morning Post Kyiv Independent 

Nine killed, 42 injured in Russian attack on Ukraine bus. Nine people were killed and at least 42 injured when a Russian drone struck a bus transporting workers in Marhanets, a city in south-central Ukraine, on Wednesday morning. Photos show the white bus severely damaged, with doors blown off and the structure mangled. Regional governor Serhiy Lysak said the number of victims may rise. BBC Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russia targets civilian infrastructure in drone attacks, injures five, Ukrainian officials say. Russia launched a major overnight drone attack early Wednesday across eastern, southern, and central Ukraine, injuring at least five people and damaging civilian infrastructure in cities like Poltava, Odesa, and Kharkiv. The strikes come amid signals from both Moscow and Kyiv that they may enter talks to ban targeting civilian sites, with peace discussions continuing in London. Reuters 

Russia destroys energy facility in Ukraine's Kherson, governor says. Russian forces on Wednesday destroyed a key energy facility in Kherson, Ukraine, following over 24 hours of artillery and drone attacks, according to regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin. The site had powered the southern city, and continued drone strikes may lead to emergency power outages as crews attempt to restore service. Reuters

4 killed, 88 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed at least four civilians and injured 88, including children, authorities reported early Wednesday, before a deadly Russian strike that killed at least 9 people in Marhanets Strikes hit Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, and Poltava regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 67 of 134 drones launched overnight. Kyiv’s proposed civilian infrastructure truce has not curbed escalating Russian assaults. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, April 22. President Vladiimir Putin reportedly expressed willingness to end the war at current frontlines but still insists on Russia’s sovereignty over four Ukrainian oblasts and may use this position to extract broader concessions from the U.S. and Ukraine. The Kremlin is using economic incentives and dangling ceasefire offers to manipulate the U.S. President Donald Trump into making concessions while not genuinely seeking peace. A ceasefire that halts the war short of complete Russian control of claimed territories could be used by Russia as a strategic pause to prepare for renewed aggression, especially if it limits Western military aid to Ukraine. Russia rejects Trump’s proposed sequencing of a ceasefire followed by peace talks. Russian forces are refining drone swarm tactics with upgraded Geran-3 drones to bypass Ukrainian air defenses and deliver synchronized strikes on urban targets. Russia is increasingly recruiting North Korean workers to address labor shortages.

Battlefield update: Russian troops have advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, signaling continued offensive efforts on the eastern front. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

EU fines Apple €500 million and Meta €200 million for breaking Europe’s digital rules. The European Union has fined Apple €500 million and Meta €200 million under the new Digital Markets Act (DMA), marking the first penalties issued under the law. Apple was penalized for anti-competitive app store practices, and Meta for its "pay or consent" ad model. Both firms were also issued cease-and-desist or compliance measures. The European Commission, while closing other investigations, warned of further action, especially against Apple. These moves signal Brussels' resolve to enforce digital rules despite U.S. political pushback. Politico EU

Spain to meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target this year, says PM. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that Spain will meet NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target this year, addressing long-standing underinvestment and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. A €10 billion plan, funded through savings and European Union surpluses without new taxes, will focus on improving military personnel conditions, cybersecurity, and emergency response. Critics, including Sánchez’s coalition partner Sumar, called the plan excessive. While only a small portion funds traditional weaponry, the move anticipates NATO raising its spending goal at the upcoming June summit. Financial Times The Guardian Politico 

The US cavalry isn’t coming: How Europe moves its armies without American assistance. Europe’s military logistics rely heavily on U.S. support, but that foundation is crumbling as America retreats from NATO obligations under Donald Trump’s second presidency. A hypothetical 2030 conflict in Lithuania exposes the continent’s strategic vulnerability: Europe lacks the transport infrastructure, heavy lift capabilities, cyber defenses, and coordinated command structure to move troops and equipment quickly without the U.S. Key military corridors and NATO planning still assume American reinforcements. Efforts to improve European Union-led military mobility are underway — from infrastructure upgrades to regulatory reform — but experts warn that Europe may be preparing for the wrong war if U.S. help never arrives. Politico EU

The ugly task of Putin-proofing your border. As fears of Russian aggression grow, Lithuania and its Baltic neighbors are taking drastic steps to fortify their borders, including plans to reinstall landmines and withdraw from international treaties banning cluster munitions. Though these weapons pose long-term risks to civilians, officials argue they are essential deterrents against invasion, given their small populations and proximity to Russia and Belarus. Lithuania’s defenses now include fences, surveillance, and mine-ready zones. While acknowledging the moral cost, officials insist these measures are a necessary stand for liberal democracy against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist ambitions, marking the boundary between freedom and authoritarianism in Europe. The Economist

Denmark to invest around $615 million to renew Navy, Home Guard fleets. Denmark will invest roughly $615 million by 2033 to modernize its Navy and Home Guard fleets. The plan includes acquiring four multi-purpose vessels for environmental protection and minelaying, a drone-equipped ship for underwater monitoring, and 21 new vessels for the Naval Home Guard. Long-term investments in air-defense frigates and Arctic vessels are also planned, with decisions expected later this year. This initiative follows a recent boost in Denmark's defense spending. Defense News Reuters 

German army reportedly speaking to major firms on NATO logistics aid. Germany’s army has reportedly reached out to major companies, including Rheinmetall, Lufthansa, and Deutsche Bahn, to explore logistics support in the event of a crisis requiring rapid deployment of troops and equipment to NATO’s eastern border. This move aligns with Berlin’s commitment to contribute 35,000 soldiers and over 200 military assets within 30 days under NATO’s new defense model. Discussions also include the possibility of Lufthansa’s flight school providing basic fighter jet training. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Germany has prioritized defense modernization, pledging a €100 billion military upgrade and increased defense spending. However, revamping the long-underfunded Bundeswehr poses significant challenges after decades of post–Cold War downsizing. Reuters RBC-Ukraine

Poland Doubled Its Defense Budget. Much of the Cash Went Abroad. Despite doubling its defense spending to 4.7% of GDP, Poland has struggled to build a robust domestic arms industry. Much of its defense budget has gone to foreign suppliers due to mismanagement, outdated planning, and production delays at state-owned defense conglomerate PGZ. Key projects like artillery shell production have faced repeated setbacks. Efforts to localize production—such as joint ventures with South Korean firms—remain incomplete. The new government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk is pushing reforms to streamline military infrastructure approvals and boost exports, stressing the urgency of self-reliant manufacturing in a volatile geopolitical landscape. Bloomberg

The czar’s gambit: How Putin uses chess. Russian influence over global chess has come under scrutiny as President Vladimir Putin weaponizes the game to advance geopolitical aims. Despite widespread Western sanctions after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia retains significant control over FIDE, the World Chess Federation, led by former Kremlin insider Arkady Dvorkovich. Critics like Garry Kasparov and Ukrainian officials accuse FIDE of enabling Russia’s occupation of Ukraine through tournaments in Crimea and Donbas. Grandmaster Sergey Karyakin, sanctioned by the EU, openly supports Putin’s war, even delivering weapons to Russian troops. FIDE’s leniency toward Karyakin and reversal of sanctions against Russia’s chess federation have drawn backlash, seen as legitimizing occupation. Chess, historically promoted in the Soviet Union as a strategic soft-power tool, now serves similar Kremlin goals. Ukrainian and Baltic activists, including Peter Heine Nielsen and his wife, politician Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, call for transparency and the removal of Russian leadership from FIDE, portraying chess as a frontline in the fight for Ukrainian sovereignty. Politico EU

Blasts at Russian military base near Moscow 'gradually ending.’ A blaze at a military base in Russia’s Vladimir region triggered a series of ammunition explosions on Tuesday, which have since been subsiding, according to regional governor Alexander Avdeev. The incident injured four people and led to the evacuation of about 450 residents from the nearby Kirzhach district, roughly 90 km east of Moscow. Schools, businesses, and roads in the area remain closed as authorities assess the damage. The Russian defense ministry attributed the fire to a violation of safety protocols, which caused ammunition stored in a warehouse to detonate. Reuters  

Switzerland joins EU sanctions against Russian state media. Switzerland will adopt European Union sanctions targeting eight Russian state media outlets accused of spreading Kremlin propaganda, aligning with the EU’s 16th sanctions package. The move, effective April 23, marks a continued shift from Swiss neutrality. Though barred from sending weapons, Switzerland supports Ukraine with humanitarian aid and may join future peacekeeping efforts. Kyiv Independent 

Orban casts vote against Ukraine’s accession to the EU in ongoing nationwide poll. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban voted against Ukraine’s European Union accession in a national poll, sharing his “no” vote publicly and claiming Ukraine’s membership would harm Hungary’s economy and sovereignty. Orban, known for his pro-Moscow stance, criticized Brussels and the Tisza party for supporting Kyiv. Despite government resistance, polls show growing public support for Ukraine’s EU bid, with over 58% backing it in a recent “Voice of the Nation” initiative and a separate April survey showing a narrow pro-accession majority. Kyiv Independent 

Macron Floats Fresh Election in France as Early as the Fall. French President Emmanuel Macron is considering dissolving parliament and holding snap elections as early as this fall, buoyed by a rebound in popularity linked to his global diplomacy. No decision has been made, and some advisors warn it could backfire, benefiting Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally amid political uncertainty. Bloomberg 

Britain’s hereditary lords hatch a survival plan. The U.K. government is moving to abolish the remaining 92 hereditary peers in the House of Lords, a move Labour argues ends an outdated, undemocratic system. Despite official denials, informal discussions are underway about granting life peerages to some of those being removed, potentially easing tensions. The bill faces strong resistance in the Lords, where many Conservatives see it as partisan. Some peers are seeking private assurances of return as life peers, while critics accuse them of using delaying tactics to block broader reform. The bill is expected to face heated debate through the summer.  Politico EU 

Who will attend Pope Francis’s funeral? Here’s a list of prominent attendees expected at Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome on Saturday: President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump (USA); Prime Minister Keir Starmer (United Kingdom); President Emmanuel Macron and Brigitte Macron (France); President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska (Ukraine); President Javier Milei (Argentina); Prince William, attending on behalf of King Charles III (United Kingdom); King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia (Spain); Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (EU); António Costa, President of the European Council (EU); Cardinal Kevin Joseph Farrell, Vatican camerlengo; Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, Dean of the College of Cardinals; Former Cardinal electors (select members helping officiate); Taiwan’s official envoy. Not attending: President Vladimir Putin (Russia), no confirmed delegation from China. Washington Post

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. expands sanctions on Iran to target booming gas exports. The U.S. has expanded its "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran by targeting its lucrative liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports, a key non-crude revenue source for the Islamic Republic. On Tuesday, the Treasury Department slapped sanctions on Iranian national Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh, his son, several of his trading companies, and an LPG tanker for facilitating these exports. The U.S. claims proceeds from LPG sales help fund Iran’s nuclear program and support militant groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. While Washington has traditionally focused on Iran's crude oil trade, the latest move signals a broader approach. Iran is a major LPG supplier to China, particularly for propane, and Beijing’s purchases of oil from Tehran are frequently labeled as coming from Malaysia. The barrels are often moved between ships to conceal their origins. Bloomberg Reuters  

Iran, U.S. to hold expert-level talks on Saturday, not Wednesday, says Islamic Republic. Expert-level nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S., initially scheduled for Wednesday, have been postponed to Saturday, according to the Iranian foreign ministry. These talks will coincide with a third round of high-level negotiations in Oman. Both sides recently agreed to start drafting a framework for a potential deal, following what was described as significant progress in earlier talks in Rome. The upcoming meeting will assess technical discussions and how well they align with the principles of a possible agreement. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, continues to pressure Iran for a swift deal to prevent nuclear weapon development, while Tehran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, and seeks sanctions relief in exchange for limited curbs on its activities. Reuters Times of Israel 

What do ‘expert level’ talks signal for the progress of the Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations? U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are advancing to the "expert level," a technical phase suggesting progress but not necessarily an imminent deal. Analysts say this step indicates both sides are serious and pragmatic, but major issues—like Iran’s uranium enrichment levels and missile program—remain unresolved. The talks, led by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, resume Saturday in Oman. Experts emphasize that technical negotiations are crucial for crafting verifiable restrictions, though political will remains key. Despite disputes, including over enrichment rights, the pace of talks has encouraged cautious optimism among veteran negotiators and nonproliferation experts. Associated Press 

Trump speaks to Netanyahu on Gaza hostage deal and Iran. President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday to discuss stalled Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations, as well as nuclear talks with Iran. Trump emphasized alignment with Netanyahu on key issues. Meanwhile, Israeli officials remain wary of U.S.–Iran talks, urging a tougher stance. Qatari mediation efforts also continue this week. Axios

Israel steps up Gaza strikes; polio vaccination halted by blockade. Israel launched one of its largest strikes in Gaza in weeks on Tuesday, amid a worsening humanitarian crisis caused by a full blockade. The Gaza health ministry halted a UN-backed polio vaccination campaign for over 600,000 children, warning of catastrophic consequences. Malnutrition affects 60,000 children, and all UN-run bakeries have shut. Israel defends the blockade as lawful pressure on Hamas to release 59 hostages. Hamas is expected in Cairo for truce talks but insists any deal must end the war. Sources said Israel, which rejected a recent Hamas offer to release all hostages for an end of the war, had yet to respond to a revamped long-term truce proposal. Israel demands Hamas be disarmed, which the militants reject. Reuters

17 killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza, as equipment required to clear rubble is destroyed. Israeli airstrikes killed at least 17 Palestinians in Gaza on Tuesday, mostly women and children, and destroyed heavy equipment provided by Egypt and Qatar to clear rubble, including bulldozers and aid vehicles. Israel claims the machinery was used by Hamas for military purposes, such as digging tunnels and planting explosive materials. A multi-story home in Khan Younis was targeted by Israeli strikes on Tuesday morning, killing four women and four children, including a toddler and her parents. Local hospitals and Gaza’s Health Ministry reported deaths in the Jabaliya refugee camp; one strike killed three children and their parents, while an attack in Nuseirat killed a man and two children. The strikes come in the wake of the ceasefire collapse and continue a brutal war that has killed over 51,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Separately, an Israeli drone strike in Lebanon killed a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and another person, while strikes continue despite a ceasefire with Hezbollah. Associated Press 

Gaza’s Health Ministry denies manipulating death toll figures. Over 51,000 people have died in the brutal Gaza war since October 2023, according to the Health Ministry, which has faced scrutiny over the accuracy and transparency of its casualty data. Around 3,000 names were recently removed from the official list during a verification process, prompting further accusations of data manipulation. Israel has repeatedly challenged the ministry’s numbers, claiming they are propaganda for Hamas. However, health officials deny this, calling the removal of the names a routine review for accuracy. “We cannot say that the health ministry removes names. It's not a removal process, rather it is a revision and verification process,” explained one official. With medical systems disrupted by ongoing strikes, Gaza now also relies on online forms for death reporting; relatives can use this to report their loved ones dead or missing. Many bodies remain unidentified or unrecovered under rubble. One analyst, a Professor at Royal Holloway College, said the ministry appears to be “actually updating the lists more in real time, as more information appears," adding that he doesn’t see any attempts at deception. Meanwhile, Israel claims to have killed 20,000 Palestinian fighters but doesn’t publish civilian death estimates. Journalists are barred from entering Gaza independently, complicating efforts to confirm any figures. BBC 

Israeli military says it 'most likely' intercepted missile coming from Yemen. Israel said it likely intercepted a missile launched from Yemen early Wednesday. No casualties or damage were reported. The attack is believed to be from the Iran-backed Houthi movement, which has targeted Israel in solidarity with Palestinians amid the Gaza conflict. Sirens were heard in several Israeli regions. Reuters Associated Press  Economic Times Times of Israel Haaretz     

Syria Makes Rare Arrests of Palestinian Militant Group Leaders. Syria’s new government has arrested two senior members of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad, marking a significant break from the Bashar al-Assad regime’s past alliance with Iran-backed factions. The move signals a shift in Syria’s regional posture as its new leadership, following Assad’s ouster in December, seeks to distance itself from Iran and extremist groups. The arrests come amid U.S. diplomatic engagement and conditions for partial sanctions relief. Syria’s leaders hope cooperation will accelerate economic recovery and reconstruction efforts in the post-Assad era. New York Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

ANALYSIS: Amid a trade war, Xi Jinping may be purging China’s armed forces. As China faces escalating U.S. tariffs, President Xi Jinping is focused more on domestic stability than foreign relations. While official data touts 5.4% growth, looming economic headwinds and public anxiety—especially over job losses—threaten confidence. Xi’s response includes potential stimulus and a continued anti-corruption purge, which now appears to target top military brass like General He Weidong. These purges, paired with grey-zone military actions and nationalist rhetoric, suggest Xi is tightening control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, where he’s expected to seek a fourth term. The trade war could push China toward liberalization—or deeper authoritarianism. The Economist

China's President Xi says tariffs and trade wars hurt world economic order. Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Wednesday that tariff and trade wars undermine the legitimate rights of all nations, harm the multilateral trading system, and disrupt the global economic order. He made the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Xi emphasized China's commitment to upholding international fairness and justice through multilateral cooperation. His comments reflect China’s ongoing criticism of protectionist policies. Reuters

China says U.S. should stop threats, coercion if it wants an agreement. The U.S. should stop making threats and resorting to coercion if it wants to make a deal, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday when asked about U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about potentially lower tariffs on China. Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun accused the U.S. of continuing to exert "extreme pressure" even as it tried to reach an agreement, saying that was not the right way to deal with China. Reuters

China’s J-36 design team unveils aircraft carrier landing system for sixth-generation stealth jet. China’s new stealth fighter, the J-36, is being developed with a sophisticated computer system to aid high-risk landings on moving aircraft carriers. The sixth-generation, tri-engine, tailless flying-wing jet shocked defense analysts when spotted over Chengdu in December. It features a blended fuselage and long-range strike capability. Designers are now working on a naval variant for the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Landing such a stealth aircraft is especially risky due to its radical tail-less design, which complicates carrier operations. South China Morning Post

China urges Japan to help fight U.S. tariffs together, Kyodo reports. Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to join forces against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, calling for unity in fighting protectionism, according to Kyodo News. Beijing also warned nations against economic deals with the U.S. that undermine China, amid escalating trade tensions between the powers. Reuters 

China Has a Long Way to Go to Fill Void Left by U.S. Aid Pullback. Following President Trump’s sharp cuts to U.S. foreign aid, global health programs face major funding shortfalls—but China is unlikely to fill the void. While Beijing has increased its health-related aid, its contributions remain far below U.S. levels and are mainly delivered through bilateral loans tied to strategic interests. Unlike the U.S., which funded nonprofits and multilateral institutions, China prioritizes infrastructure and direct government support. Experts say China may use the gap to boost its influence, but its fragmented approach, domestic challenges, and limited transparency mean it cannot match the U.S. 's scale or trusted global health network built over decades. Bloomberg 

China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War. China is rapidly automating its factories to maintain global manufacturing dominance amid rising trade tensions and tariffs. Backed by state policy and $1.9 trillion in industrial loans, factories like electric vehicle maker Zeekr are deploying advanced robotics and AI to cut costs, boost efficiency, and offset an aging labor force. China now leads the world in factory automation behind only South Korea and Singapore. Its domestic robotics industry has grown swiftly, slashing equipment costs and making AI tools accessible even to small businesses. While workers still perform precision tasks, automation is replacing many roles, sparking job security concerns. China also trains far more engineers annually than the U.S., giving it a talent edge. Unlike the U.S., where labor and cost constraints can slow automation, China’s centralized system enables rapid deployment. Experts say this shift is part of a long-term national strategy to turn robotics into an industry as transformational as electric vehicles. New York Times 

South Korea's engagement with China aligns with U.S. interests, says FM. At the Asan Plenum security forum in Seoul on Wednesday, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stressed that his nation’s engagement with China aligns with U.S. interests, and no country—including South Korea—wants U.S.-China strategic competition to become a “zero-sum game.” While reaffirming South Korea’s strong alliance with the U.S., Cho also highlighted the importance of maintaining open dialogue with China, even when views differ, such as on the South and Yellow Seas. He noted that countries in the region, including South Korea, prefer not to be forced to choose between Washington and Beijing. On Seoul-Tokyo relations, Cho called for mutual reflection, as well as change in perception to foster a better future. Japanese envoy Koichi Mizushima also underscored the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation amid rising regional security challenges. Yonhap News Agency 

Marines deploy drone-killing MADIS system for exercises with Philippines. U.S. Marines are deploying the Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS) for the first time outside the U.S. during the Balikatan exercises in the Philippines. MADIS targets drones using radar, jammers, Stinger missiles, and a 30mm cannon. This marks its second live-fire test and a key step in modernizing Marine Corps air defense. Defense News  

South Korea’s acting president stops by joint warfighting headquarters between Korean, American forces. Acting South Korean President Han Duck-soo visited the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek on Wednesday, stressing the strength of the alliance and its unified defense posture. During his visit, he met with U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson and thanked both nations' troops for their recent efforts in battling deadly wildfires in the country’s southeast. Han, a former South Korean Army sergeant, praised the soldiers’ dedication and urged continued unity, calling Camp Humphreys a symbol of the strong bilateral alliance. Yonhap News Agency 

Gunmen open fire on tourists, killing dozens in Indian-administered Kashmir. Gunmen opened fire on tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 26 people in what authorities called the worst civilian attack in years. No group has claimed responsibility, but the region has long seen insurgent violence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the “heinous act” and vowed justice, while Interior Minister Amit Shah and regional leaders pledged harsh retribution. The attack struck a popular tourist area recently promoted as safe, undermining efforts to portray Kashmir as peaceful. Victims were rushed to hospitals in nearby Anantnag.  The attack may raise tensions between India and Pakistan. Pakistan supports Kashmiri separatism and claims control of the Himalayan region, of which Kashmir is part. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, "Deeply disturbing news out of Kashmir. The United States stands strong with India against Terrorism.” France24 New York Times  Financial Times BBC CNN The Guardian Reuters 

Myanmar junta extends ceasefire to support earthquake relief, state media says. Myanmar's military has extended a temporary ceasefire until April 30 to aid relief efforts after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake near Mandalay killed over 3,700 people and devastated infrastructure. Despite the ceasefire, some military operations, including airstrikes, reportedly continued. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who currently chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), recently held rare high-level talks with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and resistance groups to support humanitarian efforts and encourage a broader pause in fighting. Reuters  

U.S. directs diplomats in Vietnam to avoid war anniversary events. The Trump administration has directed senior U.S. diplomats in Vietnam, including Ambassador Marc Knapper, to skip 50th anniversary events marking the end of the Vietnam War, a move widely seen as undermining decades of reconciliation. The abrupt withdrawal affects veterans’ gatherings, a diplomatic reception, and a symbolic museum exhibit funded by now-dismantled U.S. agencies. Critics call it a “missed opportunity” that weakens hard-won ties, while some speculate it’s politically motivated to avoid drawing attention from Trump’s 100th day of his second term. Vietnam, striving for strategic balance with China, is left questioning U.S. reliability amid stalled cooperation and high tariffs. New York Times 

Vance calls for greater ties with India, hails progress on trade talks. During a four-day visit to India, U.S. Vice President JD Vance called for stronger economic and defense ties, urging India to buy more U.S. energy and military equipment. He confirmed progress toward a bilateral trade deal aimed at doubling trade to $500 billion by 2030. Vance framed the deal as a fair-trade partnership to counterbalance China’s influence, while also promoting U.S. defense sales, including the F-35. He emphasized shared values and criticized past administrations for viewing India merely as a labor source. The visit builds on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close relationship with President Donald Trump and strengthens U.S.-India strategic cooperation. Associated Press BBC 

Australia's conservative opposition leader Dutton pledges defense boost if elected. Peter Dutton, leader of Australia’s conservative opposition Liberal Party, pledged to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP within a decade, aligning with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “peace through strength” rhetoric. Dutton proposed A$21 billion more than Labor over five years and expanded U.S. military access in northern Australia. He criticized Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s AUKUS progress, citing recruitment shortfalls. Defense Minister Richard Marles responded that spending would reach 2.33% by 2033–34 and remains under review. Reuters 

AFRICA

Ivory Coast court says Thiam ineligible for presidency because of his prior French citizenship. Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam suffered a major setback in his bid for Ivory Coast’s presidency after a court removed him from the electoral roll, citing his prior French citizenship. The ruling, which cannot be appealed, may end Thiam’s candidacy in the October election. Thiam, who renounced French citizenship in February, called the decision “democratic vandalism” and accused President Alassane Ouattara’s party of using the courts to “eliminate its most serious rival.” He urged international support for “free and fair elections” and called for unity across political parties to defend electoral rights. Financial Times Bloomberg Washington Post Reuters BBC

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Markets bounce back after Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Powell. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he doesn’t plan to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, even though he complained on social media last week, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” On Monday, Trump attacked Powell on his Truth Social platform, calling him “Mr Too Late,” and financial markets tanked. Trump lightened up Tuesday, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “I would like to see [Powell[ be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates…but, no, I have no intention to fire him.” Trump also indicated that tariffs on China could be reduced from 145 percent, the number announced by the White House on April 10. “It won’t be that high,” Trump said. “It will come down substantially. But it won’t be zero. It used to be zero.”  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was widely assumed to have intervened with Trump, convincing him that beating up on Powell verbally was triggering unwelcome market volatility.  Once Trump changed his tone Tuesday, U.S. stock futures and the dollar climbed, and gold futures dropped. Asian markets rose in early trading Wednesday. Japan’s Topix rose 2 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 2.3 percent and Taiwan’s benchmark 3.6 percent.  Wall Street Journal Financial Times Bloomberg 

IMF says Trump’s tariffs will be a drag on global economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs will slow global economic growth, projecting only 2.8% expansion in 2025—well below the historical average. The U.S. economy will be hit especially hard, with growth falling to 1.8% and inflation expected to rise. The IMF criticizes the tariffs as disruptive, reducing productivity and innovation while raising prices. Although Trump claims they will spur a manufacturing revival, many economists fear a global recession if trade tensions escalate. Modern supply chains magnify the tariffs’ effects, and the uncertain policy environment is already unsettling markets and investor confidence. Washington Post

Consulting Firms Offer to Cut Up to $20 Billion From Federal Contracts. Facing pressure from the Trump administration to cut costs, major consulting firms including Booz Allen Hamilton, Guidehouse, Deloitte, and Accenture have offered up to $20 billion in savings on U.S. federal contracts. Options include terminating contracts, reducing scopes, and offering free AI services or credits. The General Services Administration (GSA) had criticized initial proposals as insufficient, warning firms of contract cancellations. GSA procurement chief Josh Gruenbaum emphasized the need to “get the nation’s fiscal house in order” and praised firms that submitted stronger second-round offers. Negotiations are ongoing as agencies seek more efficient use of public funds. Wall Street Journal 

U.S. aerospace and defense groups warn of higher costs from Trump tariffs. U.S. aerospace and defense companies are warning that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are increasing costs and threatening their global supply chains. GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp urged the administration to restore the longstanding tariff-free regime, noting the sector’s $75 billion trade surplus depends on it. RTX projected an $850 million profit hit if tariffs remain through year-end, while Northrop Grumman reported steep losses tied to B-21 bomber costs. Despite uncertainty, GE shares rose, though RTX and Northrop fell sharply. Financial Times

America won’t be able to bully the world into buying more gas. President Trump is pushing allies like the European Union, India, and Japan to buy more American liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a way to reduce trade imbalances and boost U.S. exports. Despite being the world’s top LNG producer, U.S. infrastructure bottlenecks and Trump's own tariffs are hindering expansion. High steel costs and reduced global demand—especially from China, which halted U.S. imports—undermine the strategy. While Europe shows some interest due to reduced Russian gas flows, long-term commitments remain scarce. Experts warn even massive purchases wouldn’t significantly fix trade deficits, making Trump’s energy ambitions largely unrealistic. The Economist

‘Signalgate’ boosts secure app demand. The “Signalgate” controversy — involving leaked military strike details shared via Signal — has sparked a surge in demand for secure messaging apps. Encrypted platforms like Signal, Kibu, and Genasys report rising downloads and user interest, particularly from law enforcement and executives. Companies say the scandal exposed vulnerabilities in government communications and accelerated the shift toward privacy-focused tools with stricter access controls and identity verification. Despite alternatives, officials reportedly still use Signal to bypass bureaucratic constraints and public records laws. Axios

‘Fighting crime blindfolded’: Europe is coming after encryption. European leaders, backed by the European Commission, are intensifying efforts to regulate or weaken end-to-end encryption, arguing it hinders criminal investigations involving terrorism, child abuse, and organized crime. Denmark, France, Spain, and the UK are at the forefront, proposing laws or legal actions to access encrypted messages. Critics, including privacy advocates and tech firms like Signal, warn such moves would compromise security for all users. Encryption proponents argue that creating “backdoors” for law enforcement opens systems to hackers and authoritarian abuse. As European Union legislation advances, including the proposed Child Sexual Abuse Material regulation and a new internal security strategy, Europe faces a defining clash between privacy and policing. Politico EU

OpenAI executive confirms interest in obtaining Google Chrome browser if divested by Alphabet.  At a court hearing on Tuesday, Nick Turley, OpenAI's ChatGPT chief, said his company would be interested in buying Google's Chrome browser if Google is ordered to spin off the search engine.  Turley was asked to testify by the Justice Department during the three-week trial to determine what changes Alphabet must make to its business.  A   federal judge found last year that Alphabet had monopolized the search market. The Justice Department is seeking to force Google to divest Chrome.  Turley told the hearing that a deeper integration of the Chrome browser into OpenAI's tools would result in a better product.  He noted that combining ChatGPT and Chrome would demonstrate to users an "incredible" AI experience.  Turley added that distribution is one of OpenAI'’s most difficult issues.  The company has struck a deal to integrate ChatGPT into the Apple iPhone but has not been able to come to terms with Android smartphone manufacturers. Bloomberg

Dutch intelligence says Russia expanding cyber operations against European infrastructure.  In its annual public report, the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) reported that Russian state-sponsored hackers have attacked Dutch critical infrastructure in 2024 and 2025.  While the impact of the attacks was described as "minimal," the report concluded the 2024 critical infrastructure attack appeared to be “the first time that a group like this has carried out a cyber sabotage attack against such a control system in the Netherlands.”   In addition, cyberattacks on European and NATO targets increased in 2024 with the apparent goal of “gaining a digital position within critical infrastructure in order to sabotage it at a later time.”  The MIVD report noted that the Netherlands has provided Ukraine with intelligence, including warnings that "Russia uses vulnerabilities in applications on mobile phones to determine the locations of Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment, in order to then attack them kinetically.”  The MIVD also attributed a "whole of society" character to Russian hacking operations involving entities “from private companies to the highest levels of the Russian government."  The Record   Reuters

Chinese research team announces new benchmark in quantum cryptology.  A team of Chinese researchers led by Prof. Wang Chao of Shanghai University has announced a substantial advance in quantum cryptology by successfully factoring a 90-bit RSA integer using a D-Wave Advantage quantum computer.  The feat was once thought impossible, but the combination of AI and quantum computing has ushered in a "fourth industrial revolution" that brings with it the possibility that the technology could be used to crack any code.  Previously, Google and other researchers concluded that factoring RSA numbers above 80-bit would remain prohibitively difficult using existing quantum technology.  Wang’s team broke that barrier by combining quantum annealing algorithms with classical cryptographic techniques, pushing the limit to 90-bit, an achievement that beat previous benchmarks achieved by researchers at Fujitsu (9-bit), Lockheed Martin (13-bit) and Purdue University (20-bit).  Wang’s team used the D-Wave Advantage system, which has 5,760 qubits.  The team's report explained that "the strength of quantum annealing lies in its ability to escape local optima quickly and approach a global solution through quantum tunnelling.  This makes it especially powerful for factoring RSA integers.”  However, obstacles remain.  The report acknowledged that while the hybrid architecture combining quantum annealing and classical methods possibly could scale to larger problems, practical limitations – including the coherence time of quantum states – remain major challenges requiring further research. South China Morning Post

Chinese tech firm announces new competitive LLM built entirely with Huawei computing resources. iFlytek, a Chinese voice-recognition firm, has announced that using Huawei computing technologies to train its large language models (LLM) has increased its growth potential in the context of the U.S.-China tech war.  iFlytek said that its Xinghuo X1 reasoning model matched OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek R1 in overall performance.  The firm collaborated with Huawei in training the Xinghuo X1 on a specific drawback of domestically made chips, interconnect bandwidth.  While Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip last year performed at only 20 percent of Nvidia chips in training reasoning models, the IFlytek-Huawei project increased that to almost 80 percent of performance this year.  iFlytek reportedly gains a competitive advantage by training its LLM’s entirely with Chinese computing platforms.  Liu Qingfeng, the iFlytek founder and chairman, described the company’s approach, noting that “U.S. restrictions for China’s use of computing power chips will become increasingly strict.” Liu added, “state-owned enterprises and critical industries in China will increasingly value self-reliant and controllable LLMs.”  The iFlytek executive said the company will offer its LLM’s in global markets given the concerns of many countries about possible trade restrictions and their search for alternative products.  South China Morning Post

State Department memo reportedly advises foreign countries to avoid Chinese satellite vendors. An undated State Department memo examined by NextGov and DefenseOne urges other countries to avoid doing business with Chinese satellite firms. The memo argues that deals with Chinese satellite operators feed Beijing's military development and allow Chinese security services to gather sensitive intelligence. The document provides talking points for U.S. officials and suggests that U.S. satellite systems offer more reliable services.  It goes on to recommend to U.S. officials that if they are queried about Elon Musk's Starlink satellite service, they should acknowledge that SpaceX, Starlink's parent company, can restrict ground terminals operations as it chooses.  The memo stresses that rising tensions between the U.S. and China have reached the space economy. It points out that Chinese satellite companies may employ anticompetitive practices to block other providers, potentially placing host countries in a monopolistic, Beijing-controlled market. DefenseOne NextGov

UN reports cyber-scam community centered in Southeast Asia is spreading globally. A new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) raises alarm about a "critical inflection point" in the struggle against the cyber fraud industry centered in Southeast Asia, which is threatening to spread globally. Organized crime groups, the report says, are becoming increasingly professional and strengthening connections with other regions and criminals. This expansion is occurring despite Chinese and Thai law enforcement efforts to crack down on cyber scammers in Myanmar.  Earlier this year, Thai authorities severed power supplies to several Myanmar border regions housing massive compounds for cybercriminals involved in cyber "pit butchering" scams.  The report says that Asian criminal syndicates are developing covert banking relationships with South American drug trafficking cartels, including several physical scam operations in countries like Peru.  Benedikt Hofmann, UNODC acting regional representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, noted that “whenever there is increased law enforcement attention to certain parts of the region, the issue has tended to move somewhere else — sometimes inside the country, sometimes outside the country.”  Digital platforms operating through Telegram offer cybercriminals one-stop shopping services, including money laundering, AI scamming tools, and bogus passports. According to UN estimates, over $37 billion was stolen in East and Southeast Asia in 2023 through cyber-enabled fraud. U.S. targets of pig butchering scams lost $4.4 billion during that year. The Record Cybernews Reuters

‘Persistent surveillance’ system deployed to Army MP battalion on southern border. The Army's 716th Military Police Battalion has become the first unit to receive a new sensor system for persistent surveillance at the southern border. The Ground-Based Operational Surveillance Systems (Expeditionary) (G-BOSS(E)) Medium tower platform was installed on March 24. The G-BOSS(E) is part of a family of persistent surveillance tower systems that were previously based on quick-reaction capabilities for forces in the field.  The round-the-clock system is used to observe, detect, identify, track, and report on objects and threats and can be integrated into the command-and-control network on the southern border to provide a network of integrated sensors.  The 716th was slated to be the second unit to receive the technology, but due to its deployment to support the border security mission, it was prioritized and moved to the front of the line to be the first to receive the system. DefenseScoop

Boeing to sell parts of digital aviation solutions portfolio for $10.55 billion. Embattled planemaker Boeing announced on Tuesday that it will sell parts of its digital aviation solutions business to private equity firm Thoma Bravo for $10.55 billion in an all-cash deal. The sale includes flight planning tools like Jeppesen, ForeFlight, AerData, and OzRunways, while Boeing will retain core digital services focused on fleet maintenance and diagnostics. The move is part of CEO Kelly Ortberg’s strategy to streamline operations and strengthen the company's financial position amid ongoing challenges following a major safety incident involving a Max jetliner. Despite losses in its defense division, Boeing considers it essential and is still exploring divestitures, such as its drone unit Insitu. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending regulatory approval, as Boeing also faces pressures from trade tensions, particularly with China. Breaking Defense

ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent stockpile billions worth of Nvidia chips. Chinese tech giants ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent stockpiled over $12 billion worth of Nvidia’s H20 AI chips ahead of new U.S. export restrictions in April 2025.  The three companies had asked Nvidia to ship a total of around 1 million H20s — roughly a full year's supply — as soon as possible, ideally by the end of May, one person briefed on the matter told Nikkei Asia.  The actual number delivered fell short due to the Trump administration's announcement in early April that these chips would require a license for export, the source added. The H20, a downgraded chip tailored for China, was in high demand for AI applications, particularly after DeepSeek’s rise. Despite the ban, companies remain committed to expanding data centers and are exploring domestic alternatives like Huawei’s Ascend chips. Nvidia expects a $5.5 billion revenue hit from the curbs. CEO Jensen Huang visited Beijing, signaling intent to maintain ties. China made up 13.1% of Nvidia’s recent revenue, with more invoicing shifting to Singapore. Nikkei Asia

China and Russia-led lunar base will have nuclear power plant on surface of the moon. China and Russia’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project may include building a nuclear reactor on the moon, according to a presentation by Pei Zhaoyu, chief engineer of China’s 2028 Chang’e-8 mission. The base’s energy could also come from large solar arrays on the lunar surface. Chang’e-8 is part of China’s plan to establish a permanent manned lunar base by 2030. The ILRS is set to have a “basic model” on the Moon’s south pole by 2035, aligning with the construction goals of China’s broader lunar program. Beijing also plans to launch the “555 Project” to invite global participation in the ILRS. Reuters  

China unveils new team of astronauts for space station launch. China has announced the crew for its upcoming Shenzhou 20 mission to the Chinese space station, continuing its rapid expansion in space exploration. The three-person team—Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui, and Wang Jie—will launch Thursday evening from Jiuquan in northwestern China. They will replace a crew that has spent 175 days in orbit. Chen Dong, a veteran of two previous missions, will lead the team, while the other two astronauts will be making their first spaceflights. During their six-month stay, the crew will conduct experiments, perform spacewalks, and enhance the station. The returning crew is expected back on Earth by April 29. China, excluded from the International Space Station due to U.S. concerns over military control of its space program, has built its own station and plans to send astronauts to the moon before 2030. Associated Press Reuters  

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