Open Source Report for Wednesday, April 16, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Witkoff says US ‘finally’ got answer on Putin’s demands for peace.

U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China

Vance says Europe can’t be a ‘permanent security vassal’ of Washington

Witkoff in Apparent Reversal Says Iran Must Halt Nuclear Enrichment

China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Pathways to a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal. Iranian and U.S. negotiators met in Oman Saturday, the first high-level talks between the two countries in years.  Both sides said the initial conversations had been productive and agreed to another round this weekend. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump said the U.S. does not seek the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program – only that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon. Will the talks lead to a breakthrough? The Cipher Brief asked former senior State Department official and Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr; Paula Doyle, who served as CIA Associate Deputy Director of Operations and worked on counterproliferation issues in CIA; and Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire is slipping away. President Donald Trump’s promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine is unraveling. While he initially aimed to secure a ceasefire within 100 days of office, Russia has ignored America’s proposal and escalated attacks, most notably a deadly strike in Sumy. Trump has blamed Ukraine for provoking the war and dismissed its plea for U.S. missiles. Though he renewed some sanctions and floated new tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, his administration has reduced support for Ukraine—cutting military aid, withdrawing troops from Poland, and sidelining key diplomatic meetings. Meanwhile, Trump’s envoy reportedly suggested conceding four Ukrainian provinces to Russia to achieve a ceasefire, a proposal Ukraine and its allies reject. As U.S. support wanes, European nations are considering a “reassurance force” stationed in western Ukraine, focusing on training and deterrence. Former officials urge Europe to increase arms supplies, fund Ukraine’s defense industry, and use frozen Russian assets—arguing that only more decisive European action can keep Ukraine in the fight and pressure Russia into real negotiations. The Economist

Witkoff says US ‘finally’ got answer on Putin’s demands for peace. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said he finally received clarity from Russian President Vladimir Putin on what Russia wants in a permanent peace deal during their five-hour meeting in Moscow last week. In an interview with Fox News, Witkoff described the session as “compelling,” and suggested that a viable peace agreement may be emerging. While he did not disclose specific demands, he referenced the importance of five disputed territories, broader security protocols, and NATO-related concerns. Witkoff emphasized the complexity of the negotiations but expressed cautious optimism about reaching a landmark accord. He also floated the idea of future commercial partnerships between the U.S. and Russia as part of broader regional stability. The meeting marked Witkoff’s third encounter with Putin and coincides with President Trump’s growing urgency to advance peace talks, recently urging Russia to act swiftly to end what he called a “senseless” war that would not have happened under his earlier presidency. The Hill Kyiv Independent 

US Softens Calls for Ukraine to Pay Back Aid in Minerals Deal Talks. The U.S. has lowered its estimate of aid to Ukraine from $300 billion to $100 billion, aligning more closely with Kyiv's figure of over $90 billion. In ongoing negotiations, the Trump administration is pressing Ukraine to share profits from future projects—especially in minerals and infrastructure—as compensation. Kyiv refuses to treat past aid as debt and is pushing for better terms. Talks have been productive, with a deal possibly imminent, but disagreements persist over investment control and Ukraine’s EU aspirations. Bloomberg

Russia Asks to Buy Boeing Jets with Frozen Assets in US Peace Talks. Russia has requested U.S. approval to buy Boeing aircraft using frozen Russian state assets, contingent on a ceasefire in Ukraine. While not a formal condition for truce, the proposal is seen as part of broader sanctions relief negotiations. Russia also seeks to lift sanctions on Aeroflot and resume direct flights. The U.S. has frozen around $5 billion in Russian assets, with allies blocking $280 billion overall. Boeing halted operations in Russia after the 2022 invasion. Amid global trade tensions and sanctions, any easing would likely be linked to significant progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Bloomberg

NATO's Rutte, in Odesa, declares 'unwavering' support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Odesa with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, affirming NATO's "unwavering" support following deadly Russian missile strikes in Sumy. Despite U.S. President Trump criticizing Zelensky and pushing a peace deal, Rutte insisted Russia started the war and backed both Ukraine and the U.S. peace effort. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's urgent need for air defense, especially Patriot missile systems, which he said the country is ready to purchase. Rutte also visited wounded soldiers and later traveled to Moldova to discuss regional security. Reuters

Ukraine, UK, France and Turkey discuss Black Sea security, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine, the UK, France, and Turkey are holding military talks in Turkey on Black Sea security. Speaking in Odesa alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelensky emphasized that the meeting focuses on future security guarantees after a ceasefire, not ending the war. Rutte praised Turkey’s past diplomatic efforts, including the 2022 grain deal. Zelensky suggested Turkey could play a key role in a future Black Sea security coalition and maritime presence. Reuters

Russian drone attack on Odesa damages homes, civilian infrastructure, Ukraine says. A Russian drone strike on Odesa overnight damaged homes, warehouses, and civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian officials said. No injuries were reported. Reuters

In Sumy, life goes on despite the constant threat of attack. Despite enduring relentless Russian missile and drone attacks, life continues in Sumy, Ukraine, just 30 kilometers from the Russian border. On April 13, a Palm Sunday strike killed 35 people and injured over 100, making it the deadliest attack on Ukrainian civilians this year. Residents, still grieving, try to maintain routines amid the threat. Victims like 20-year-old Asia Pohorila and 13-year-old Kyrylo Illiashenko, who helped rescue passengers from a burning bus, symbolize both suffering and resilience. Locals express deep skepticism toward ongoing U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks, viewing them as ineffective PR. “This is our reality,” said one hospital director. Associated Press 

1 killed, 27 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed one civilian and injured at least 27. Strikes hit multiple regions using drones, missiles, and bombs, damaging homes, clinics, and infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses downed 57 of 97 drones. Kyiv remains open to a 30-day ceasefire, but Moscow continues to reject it. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, April 15. Russian officials reaffirmed Putin’s June 2024 demands that any peace deal with Ukraine must include regime change, major territorial concessions, military restrictions, and a declaration of neutrality. Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed these demands, adding calls for "denazification," recognition of Russian annexations, and changes to Ukrainian laws affecting Russian speakers. Vladimir Putin’s June 2024 speech remains the Kremlin’s guiding framework for negotiations, demanding Ukraine’s withdrawal from all four contested oblasts and constitutional abandonment of NATO ambitions. Russia continues using vague rhetoric to mask extreme goals, including full Ukrainian demilitarization, installation of a pro-Russian government, and surrender of sovereign decision-making. Lavrov and Kremlin leaders define Ukraine’s alleged discrimination and NATO alignment as the war’s "root causes" and use them to justify occupation and territorial claims. Russia is laying groundwork for broader expansion, with Lavrov invoking historical Russian imperial claims to justify ambitions beyond Ukraine, including parts of NATO and former Soviet territories. Naryshkin threatened retaliation against NATO states, claiming their defensive buildups are provocative and warning of attacks on Poland and the Baltics in the event of conflict. Lavrov reiterated Russia’s rejection of Trump’s 30-day ceasefire plan, questioning Ukraine’s intentions and accusing it of bad faith, despite Kyiv's acceptance of the proposal. Russia may soon resume major strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, claiming without evidence that Ukraine has repeatedly violated the temporary ceasefire since mid-March. Ukraine’s National Guard announced two new army corps formations, aimed at improving command structure and enhancing operational effectiveness in future combat operations.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces made tactical advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, while Russian troops gained ground near Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China. The Trump administration is using ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure over 70 U.S. trading partners to isolate China economically, in exchange for tariff relief. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the initiative, urging allies to block Chinese goods, investments, and influence in their economies to undercut Beijing’s leverage in potential talks with President Trump. While some nations remain in early discussions, the strategy reflects an aggressive push to curb China’s global integration. Trump has stated a deal depends on China, not the U.S., while Bessent hinted at possible delisting of Chinese stocks. Meanwhile, China is pursuing parallel diplomacy to counter these moves. Wall Street Journal

Trump orders tariff probe on all US critical mineral imports. President Trump has ordered a national security review to consider tariffs on all U.S. critical mineral imports, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign—especially Chinese—suppliers. The probe, led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, will assess vulnerabilities in the supply chain for minerals like cobalt, nickel, uranium, and rare earths. With China dominating global mineral processing and curbing exports, Trump’s move could reshape supply chains and benefit allies like Australia. However, with limited U.S. capacity for mining and processing, experts warn tariffs may disrupt supply before domestic alternatives are viable. Findings are due within 180 days. Reuters 

China hawks are losing influence in Trumpworld, despite the trade war. Under Donald Trump’s second term, U.S. China policy has grown increasingly erratic, driven more by presidential impulse than strategic clarity. Internal divisions have emerged between “primacists,” who seek global dominance; “prioritisers,” who focus solely on China; and “restrainers,” who favor isolationism. The restrainers appear to be gaining ground. Several China hawks were recently fired from the National Security Council, signaling a shift toward a less confrontational stance. Meanwhile, new figures like Elbridge Colby, while previously tough on China, now echo Trump’s cautious rhetoric about avoiding direct conflict over Taiwan. Despite Trump’s aggressive trade war—tariffs, tech restrictions, and shifting alliances—his administration lacks a consistent military or ideological strategy toward China. Less experienced figures fill Key State Department posts, and experts fear this vacuum weakens deterrence. Analysts warn that signaling softness on Taiwan or provoking without a clear plan could backfire catastrophically, risking deeper conflict with Beijing amid ongoing economic warfare. The Economist

Will DOGE Take a Bite Out of This Spy Firm’s Stock? That’s Classified.  Booz Allen Hamilton, a major government contractor with deep ties to U.S. intelligence agencies, is facing uncertainty as federal spending on consultants declines under the Trump administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The company’s stock has dropped 40% since Election Day. With 98% of its revenue coming from the U.S. government and much of its work classified, investors struggle to assess the financial risks, making the stock difficult to evaluate or invest in. Despite management’s transparency about this opacity, securities rules prevent disclosure of classified contracts. While Booz Allen has offered cost-saving measures and remains deeply embedded in national security work, its inability to share detailed information raises concerns about whether it should be publicly traded. Some suggest taking the company private again, as it cannot meet standard investor disclosure requirements due to the secretive nature of its operations.  Wall Street Journal 

Pentagon senior adviser Dan Caldwell ousted during investigation into leaks. Dan Caldwell, a senior adviser to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was placed on administrative leave and escorted out of the Pentagon amid an investigation into unauthorized disclosures of sensitive information. Caldwell, a former Marine and longtime ally of Hegseth from their days at Concerned Veterans for America, served as the key point of contact in a private Signal messaging chat involving top Trump administration officials. The chat discussed plans for a military strike against Houthi militants in Yemen and drew scrutiny when journalist Jeffrey Goldberg was added. The Pentagon has launched a broader crackdown on leaks, with potential criminal referrals. Associated Press Reuters Military Times 

Rubio, Witkoff heading to France for talks on Ukraine, Iran and trade. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Paris this week for high-level talks with French officials on Ukraine, Iran, and trade. Witkoff will meet President Emmanuel Macron, while Rubio will speak with Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. The visit follows Witkoff’s recent meeting with Putin about a Ukraine ceasefire and comes amid Trump’s tariff threats. Macron continues to push for European security guarantees for Kyiv in case of a truce. Tariff tensions will be a key topic. Reuters

Boeing Hit from All Sides in Trump’s Trade War. Boeing is facing intensified pressure as China reportedly told domestic airlines to halt new orders and seek approval for previously ordered jets, amid escalating trade tensions under the Trump administration. The move threatens Boeing’s access to its largest long-term market and comes as the jet maker struggles with production issues, a fragile supply chain, and rising costs. While Airbus stands to benefit, Boeing’s future in China looks uncertain. The broader tariff war is undermining U.S. manufacturing rather than helping, analysts say, potentially hurting Boeing’s recovery and opening more ground to rivals like China’s Comac and Europe’s Airbus. Wall Street Journal

Space Force bolsters U.K. cooperation with civilian exchange program. The United States and the United Kingdom have launched a new civilian exchange program between their space agencies to strengthen cooperation and workforce development in the growing space sector. The initiative, a collaboration between U.S. Space Systems Command and U.K. Space Command, allows civilian professionals to temporarily swap roles across countries to gain new skills and perspectives. The program builds on existing defense exchange frameworks and was officially signed in November 2024. Leaders from both nations have emphasized the importance of such partnerships in aligning space strategies and fostering trust. The first U.S. participant, Tara Browne, has already begun her assignment in the U.K. Defense News 

Its Journalism Challenged Autocrats. Trump Wants to Silence It. Journalists at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), a U.S.-funded news outlet known for exposing authoritarian abuses, are alarmed by President Trump’s order to dismantle its parent agency, the U.S. Agency for Global Media. This move, following the recent release of Belarusian journalist Andrei Kuznechyk from prison, stunned staff who see it as a political blow to independent journalism. While Elon Musk publicly mocked the outlet, Trump tapped Kari Lake to oversee the shutdown. Despite its major audience—47 million weekly and billions of online views—funding has been blocked, staff furloughed, and satellite feeds cut. RFE/RL has filed lawsuits to regain access to its $142 million congressional appropriation. The outlet’s reporting remains vital in authoritarian regions like Belarus, Iran, and Russia. Observers fear the closure would embolden repressive regimes and silence critical reporting in high-risk areas. Journalists now in exile or imprisoned worry that U.S. policy reversals are erasing their sacrifices. New York Times

American economy to lose billions as foreign tourists stay away. The U.S. economy is expected to lose billions in 2025 due to a sharp decline in foreign tourism and growing international boycotts of American products. Non-citizen air arrivals dropped nearly 10% in March, with Canadian bookings down 70% through September. Contributing factors include rising border hostility, retaliatory tariffs, and negative global sentiment toward the U.S. under President Trump. Goldman Sachs estimates the hit could reduce GDP by up to $90 billion. Tourism-dependent regions like the Northeast are seeing falling hotel rates. Public institutions in Canada are advising against U.S. travel, further deepening economic risks for the summer season. Bloomberg

Visa cancellations sow panic for international students, with hundreds fearing deportation. Hundreds of international students in the U.S. have abruptly lost their legal visa status, sparking widespread fear and legal challenges. At least 790 students across 120+ colleges were affected, often without clear reasons—some citing minor infractions like traffic tickets. Lawsuits are being filed, alleging due process violations, and some federal judges have temporarily restored individual statuses. The government has not explained the sudden crackdown. Students, especially from India and China, now fear deportation and are altering routines to avoid legal trouble. Advocacy groups say over 1,300 may be impacted. Associated Press 

A U.S.-China Trade War With Students and Tourists as Potential Pawns. As U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, both nations are weaponizing cultural and educational exchanges. China has warned students and tourists about visiting the U.S., citing safety and political risks, while U.S. authorities have revoked Chinese student visas and targeted academic ties. The fallout includes reduced Hollywood film imports to China and increased suspicion of Chinese scholars. Once stabilizing forces, people-to-people exchanges are now political pawns, with rising fear and confusion among Chinese families, students, and travelers considering U.S. engagement. New York Times 

Trump administration proposes scrapping UN peacekeeping funding. The Trump administration has proposed eliminating U.S. funding for United Nations peacekeeping missions, citing failures in Mali, Lebanon, and Congo. The U.S., the largest contributor to UN peacekeeping, currently covers 27% of its $5.6 billion budget. The plan, part of the Office of Management and Budget's “Passback” proposal, would also halve the State Department’s budget and create a $2.1 billion “America First Opportunities Fund” for selective aid. Congress, which controls federal budgets, may reject or modify these cuts. Reuters 

White House limits newswire to daily press pool. The White House has changed how media outlets are selected for the press pool covering President Trump, removing the permanent slot traditionally reserved for wire services like the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and Reuters. Instead, all outlets—including wire services—must now compete for daily spots in a rotating system controlled by the White House, not the White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA). The shift follows a federal judge’s order to reinstate AP’s access after it was banned for refusing to use the term “Gulf of America.” Critics, including journalists and WHCA officials, argue the move undermines press freedom and retaliates against outlets for unfavorable coverage. The AP referred to the development as a “grave disservice to the American people.” The Hill  Politico Reuters CNN 

Judge orders Trump officials to testify about efforts to return wrongly deported man. A U.S. judge has ordered Trump administration officials to testify under oath and provide documents regarding their efforts to return Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man wrongly deported to El Salvador despite a court order blocking his removal. Judge Paula Xinis criticized the administration for providing no meaningful updates and said it had done “nothing” to comply with her order. The case reflects broader concerns about Trump’s aggressive immigration tactics, defiance of judicial rulings, and use of executive power. Abrego Garcia remains imprisoned in El Salvador, and U.S. officials claim they’ve removed barriers to his return without directly requesting his release. Reuters Associated Press 

U.S. transfers land on Mexican border to the Army to prevent illegal crossings. The Trump administration ordered the transfer of nearly 110,000 acres of federal land in New Mexico to the U.S. Army to aid border security. The move, part of Trump's immigration crackdown, allows patrols and infrastructure to curb illegal crossings, trafficking, and ecological damage. The transfer lasts three years. Reuters ABC News 

Two U.S. service members killed, one seriously wounded in border deployment vehicle accident. Two U.S. service members stationed at the southern border were killed and a third was seriously injured on Tuesday morning in a vehicle accident near Santa Teresa, New Mexico, according to the military. The incident occurred near Fort Bliss, a key military base in West Texas. No civilians were involved. The troops were deployed in support of President Trump’s order to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. Military officials confirmed that Stryker vehicles used for border patrol were not involved. Names of the deceased are being withheld pending next-of-kin notification. Associated Press Axios 

Trump planning to offer stipends as part of self-deportation program, as well as opportunity to re-enter country. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans for a new "self-deportation" program that would offer financial incentives to undocumented immigrants who voluntarily leave the country. In an interview with Fox Noticias, Trump said participants would receive a stipend and a plane ticket and could later be considered for legal re-entry. "We're going to give them some money and a plane ticket, and then we're going to work with them,” he said. “If they're good, if we want them back in, we're going to work with them to get them back in as quickly as we can." The White House declined to elaborate further. The initiative is part of Trump’s broader immigration policy, which includes ramped-up deportations and the use of the CBP app to allow immigrants to signal their intent to leave the U.S. voluntarily. Reuters Associated Press Times of India Axios   

Lawyers say El Salvador blocks access to detained Venezuelans. Lawyers representing over 200 Venezuelans deported by the U.S. and imprisoned in El Salvador say the Salvadoran government is denying access to legal counsel and withholding detainees' identities. The prisoners, allegedly linked to gangs, were sent to the CECOT prison under a U.S.-El Salvador agreement. Habeas corpus petitions filed on their behalf have gone unanswered, raising concerns from Human Rights Watch and others. Critics argue El Salvador lacks judicial independence and has suspended due process under President Bukele’s crackdown. Reuters

Authorities say they have charged the leaders of a Mexican organized crime group. Federal authorities have indicted brothers Johnny and Jose Alfredo Hurtado Olascoaga, leaders of the Mexican drug cartel La Nueva Familia Michoacana, for trafficking cocaine, heroin, meth, and fentanyl into the U.S. The group was labeled a terrorist organization in February. Rewards of up to $5 million are offered for their capture. Associated Press Reuters U.S. Department of Justice ABC News  

Biden, in First Major Speech Since Leaving Office, Warns of Trump’s ‘Destruction.’  In his first major speech since leaving office, former President Joe Biden warned that the Trump administration is undermining Social Security, accusing it of fostering fear and cutting services. Speaking at a disability advocacy conference in Chicago, Biden stressed Social Security's importance as a "sacred promise" and criticized Trump’s approach without naming him directly. He also defended empathy in leadership and condemned cruelty as strength. Biden’s remarks come amid Republican efforts to tighten Social Security fraud enforcement and limit immigrant access. Wall Street Journal New York Times CNN The Guardian The Hill

EU observers categorically reject Ecuador election fraud allegations. European Union election observers firmly rejected claims of fraud in Ecuador’s presidential election, backing President Daniel Noboa’s decisive win over leftist Luisa Gonzalez. Noboa secured victory by over 1 million votes, a sharp contrast to his narrow lead in the February round. The EU mission found no evidence of fraud and said Ecuadorians voted freely. Gonzalez has yet to present proof or appear publicly. International support for Noboa grew, with Ecuador’s bonds continuing to rally after his reelection. Reuters 

Exiled Nicaraguan opposition leader sees dwindling options for democracy. Exiled Nicaraguan opposition leader Félix Maradiaga warns that hopes for democracy in Nicaragua are fading as President Daniel Ortega’s regime grows more repressive. Speaking from Florida, Maradiaga described how dissent is crushed through imprisonment, exile, and fear. Stripped of citizenship and jailed for running against Ortega in 2021, he now helps youth and exiles organize resistance. He stresses international support, sanctions, and faith as vital tools in the struggle. His Catholic faith, he says, sustains him amid immense personal and national suffering. Associated Press 

Migration once fueled an economic boom in the Darien Gap. Now that lifeline is gone. Migration once fueled a dramatic economic boom in Panama’s remote Darien Gap, as locals earned high incomes ferrying thousands of migrants north toward the U.S. But after President Trump slashed asylum access in early 2025, migration nearly stopped, collapsing the region’s fragile new economy. Villagers who had abandoned farming are now struggling to survive. Once-busy ports are ghost towns, and residents face food insecurity and uncertainty. Many, like Luis Olea, now hope future U.S. policy shifts might revive opportunity. Associated Press 

EUROPE

The untold story of how Trump shocked Europe in a few short days. In February 2025, a whirlwind series of Trump administration moves stunned European leaders and upended transatlantic relations. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Ukraine’s hopes of NATO membership and reclaiming lost territory “illusionary,” echoing Kremlin rhetoric. Soon after, Trump publicly aligned with Vladimir Putin and blamed Ukraine for starting the war. Vice President JD Vance delivered a fiery speech at the Munich Security Conference, criticizing Europe’s internal policies and deepening tensions. The chaos prompted emergency summits in Paris and London, where leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer sought to restore unity and propose peacekeeping plans. Starmer promised increased defense spending while slashing aid to gain Trump’s favor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, later welcomed in London, clashed with Trump in Washington, worsening relations. A fragile ceasefire emerged but quickly unraveled. Now, European leaders scramble to mediate and stabilize ties, though lasting damage remains from a dramatic month that redefined global alliances and exposed deep fractures between Washington and its longtime partners. Politico 

Vance says Europe can’t be a ‘permanent security vassal’ of Washington. In a recent interview, U.S. Vice President JD Vance praised former French President Charles de Gaulle, expressing alignment with the postwar leader’s belief that Europe should be militarily independent from the U.S. Vance argued that it’s in both Europe’s and America’s interest for the continent to stop relying on American security, echoing President Trump’s push for NATO members to significantly increase defense spending. Europe should not remain a “permanent security vassal” of Washington, he said. He also criticized the bloc’s long-standing dependence on U.S. military support and called for greater investment in defense, saying: “Europe’s entire security infrastructure, for my entire life, has been subsidized by the United States of America.”  Vance acknowledged that European nations were right to be skeptical of the 2003 Iraq War and suggested they could have prevented it with more independence. Despite past criticisms of the continent, he emphasized his “love” for European people, and his cultural and philosophical ties. Vance also reignited tensions with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, rejecting the embattled leader’s accusation that he supports Russian narratives and defending continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Politico EU France 24 

F-35 user countries bolstering national control over parts amid concerns about U.S. dominance. Norway has completed its order of 52 F-35A fighter jets, becoming the first partner nation to fulfill its program of record, according to Lockheed Martin. The final deliveries coincided with the opening of a new national maintenance center in Rygge, enabling Norway to perform local upkeep and reduce reliance on foreign facilities. This shift is part of a broader move by F-35 nations to enhance independence and ensure operational readiness amid concerns over U.S. control of the F-35’s global logistics and software infrastructure. Spare parts remain a complex issue, as they technically remain U.S. property until installed, even if produced by local industries. Norway, like other F-35 users, maintains its own national stockpiles for crisis readiness. Meanwhile, Italy’s Cameri base continues to serve as Europe’s primary heavy maintenance hub for the F-35, recently servicing a U.S. jet for the first time. The Netherlands also plays a key role in F-35 logistics, hosting one of three global distribution hubs. Countries like Finland and Norway have prepared for scenarios requiring independent operation of the aircraft, underscoring the strategic importance of national control over maintenance and parts supply in a highly interdependent system. Defense News

Ruble Is Top Performing Currency as US Trade War Hits Dollar. The Russian ruble has become 2025’s best-performing global currency, gaining 38% against the U.S. dollar in over-the-counter markets. This surge is driven by high domestic interest rates (21%), capital controls, and mandatory currency conversions by exporters. A perceived easing in U.S.-Russia relations, investor interest in ruble-denominated assets, and cheap yuan-based refinancing have also fueled the rally. Despite Western sanctions, the ruble outperforms even gold, up 23%. However, the ruble’s strength, combined with falling oil prices, may hurt Russia’s export revenues and complicate its 2025 budget, which was based on a weaker exchange rate. Bloomberg

EU Expects U.S. Tariffs to Stay as Talks Make Little Progress. Trade talks between the U.S. and European Union stalled this week, with President Trump’s administration signaling that most U.S. tariffs on EU goods—including those on cars, steel, and aluminum—will remain. Despite the EU’s offer to eliminate all industrial tariffs, U.S. officials demanded broader concessions on pharmaceuticals, metals, and regulatory standards. A temporary 90-day reduction in “reciprocal” tariffs to 10% and delay of EU countermeasures was agreed upon, but EU retaliation targeting €21 billion in U.S. goods looms. Trump aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and bring manufacturing home, while both sides remain far apart on key trade priorities. Bloomberg Financial Times

For Meloni, Meeting with Trump Is Risky Bid for a Diplomatic Win. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is meeting U.S. President Donald Trump in a high-stakes diplomatic effort to seek tariff relief and bolster defense ties, with support from the European Union. She aims to propose a reciprocal elimination of industrial tariffs and push for a US-EU summit. While a breakthrough could elevate her status among European leaders, failure risks damaging her domestic credibility. Trump’s unpredictable nature and pressure on Italy to raise defense spending complicate her mission. Meloni’s balancing act between Brussels and Washington could shape her legacy and Italy’s role in transatlantic relations. Bloomberg Reuters Politico EU 

Italy chastises Britain for ‘selfishness’ in not sharing technology on fighter project. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has criticized the UK for not fully sharing technologies with Italy and Japan in the joint Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which aims to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035. He urged Britain to overcome what he called “barriers of selfishness” and stressed that true partnerships require equal sharing of technological advances. “It seems to me that the UK is much more reluctant to do this, and that's a mistake because selfishness is the worst enemy of nations," he said in an interview with Reuters. While Crosetto, a high-level member of Prime Minister Meloni's conservative party, did not specify which technologies were being withheld, he praised Italy and Japan for being more open. The UK’s Ministry of Defense defended its commitment to the project, calling GCAP a strong example of international collaboration. Crosetto also voiced support for Saudi Arabia joining the program, citing its technological ambitions and financial resources. Reuters South China Morning Post 

Czech Leader Urges EU to Deregulate to Boost Growth and Security. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala urged the European Union to reduce bureaucracy and loosen environmental regulations to spur economic growth and strengthen defense. Speaking in Prague, he warned that overregulation stifles innovation and investment, threatening both prosperity and security—especially amid Russia’s aggression and declining U.S. support. With elections approaching and economic recovery stalling due to austerity measures, Fiala called the crisis an opportunity to reform EU policy, emphasizing resilience against U.S. tariffs and cheap Chinese imports. Bloomberg

Spend more on defense now to protect Europe from Russia, says Lithuania's defense minister. Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene urged Europe to lift borrowing limits and increase military spending to deter a potential Russian attack. Warning that defense is now an existential priority, she stressed the need for immediate European Union grants and joint investment. Lithuania will raise its defense budget to 5.5% of GDP next year. Sakaliene acknowledged U.S. pressure under Trump but said frontline NATO countries remain committed and supported. She hopes NATO allies will adopt a 4% GDP defense target at June’s summit in The Hague. Reuters

EU Plans Workaround to Sideline Hungary in Russia Sanctions. The European Union is seeking ways to extend sanctions against Russia without unanimous consent, due to Hungary’s ongoing opposition. The European Commission may reclassify the sanctions as trade measures, which require only a qualified majority. Current sanctions, up for renewal in July, include export bans, import restrictions, and a freeze on €200 billion in Russian central bank assets. Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban, a Putin ally, has repeatedly threatened vetoes, prompting the EU to consider legal workarounds or coordinated national actions by willing member states. Bloomberg

Russian journalists jailed for 5-1/2 years for alleged extremist ties to Navalny. Four Russian journalists—Antonina Favorskaya, Sergei Karelin, Konstantin Gabov, and Artem Kriger—were sentenced to 5.5 years in prison for allegedly working with Alexei Navalny’s banned Anti-Corruption Foundation. Tried behind closed doors, they denied charges of involvement in an extremist organization. Prosecutors claimed they helped produce content for Navalny’s YouTube channel. Media and human rights groups condemned the verdict as an attack on press freedom. Navalny, a top Kremlin critic, died in prison in 2024 under suspicious circumstances. Despite U.S. intelligence downplaying Putin’s direct involvement, supporters accuse the regime of silencing dissent through intimidation and repression. Reuters CNN Associated Press The Guardian  

Slovakia’s pro-Kremlin leader dismisses call by EU to shun Moscow military parade. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for his staunch pro-Russian stance, fiercely criticized EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Tuesday for urging European leaders not to attend Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade amid its war in Ukraine. Fico insisted he will go to Moscow to honor Red Army soldiers and victims of Nazism, rejecting EU pressure and asserting Slovakia’s sovereignty. “Nobody can order me where to go or not to go,” he said. His position sharply contrasts with most European leaders, as he has halted military aid to Ukraine, opposed sanctions on Russia, and vowed to block Kyiv’s NATO membership. Fico, who is facing domestic backlash over his policies, has also not visited Ukraine since the war began. Associated Press Politico

Georgia sacked 700 civil servants for backing pro-European protests, watchdog says. Around 700 Georgian civil servants have been dismissed since December for supporting pro-European Union protests, according to the anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International. The protests broke out last fall in response to the government's decision to freeze EU membership talks until 2028—a move widely seen as pro-Russian and authoritarian. Civil servants and diplomats publicly opposed the decision, prompting Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to call their actions a "self-cleansing" of disloyal staff. The government has since weakened legal protections for public workers, and the dismissals have mostly affected the defense ministry and Tbilisi city hall. Georgia’s traditionally pro-Western stance has shifted in recent years toward closer ties with Moscow, drawing criticism for crackdowns on dissent and controversial legislation. Reuters

Prisons across France attacked in 'terrorist’ assaults amid crackdown on illicit drugs. Recent coordinated attacks on at least six prisons across France were acts of terrorism aimed at prison staff responsible for guarding top crime figures, said French Justice Minister Gérald Darmaninhas on Tuesday. The minister visited Toulon prison in France’s south, whose entrance was shot at with an AK-47. The attacks on jails in Marseille, Villepinte, Nanterre, Aix-Luynes, and Valence, which included gunfire, arson, and threats, come amid a surge in drug-related violence fueled by booming cocaine imports from South America. Darmanin linked the violence to government crackdowns on drug gangs and vowed not to back down. France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor has taken over the investigation, citing the scale and organized nature of the attacks, which also targeted the National School of Prison Administration. The acronym "DDPF" was tagged at several sites, possibly linked to far-left militants, though no group has claimed responsibility. Darmanin plans to make new high-security prisons and tighten measures against drug crime, which has contributed to rising support for the far-right in French politics. Reuters Associated Press The Guardian New York Times 

Serbia cites ‘security threat’ for expulsion order issued to Croatian doctor married to Serb. Arien Stojanovic Ivkovic, a 31-year-old Croatian doctor living in Belgrade with her Serbian husband and daughter, was ordered to leave Serbia within a week after being labeled a security threat. She is among about 20 Croatian citizens expelled from Serbia in recent months, with others denied entry. Tensions between Serbia and Croatia have escalated amid anti-corruption protests in Serbia, which pro-government media claim are backed by Croatia’s security services. Ivkovic believes her attendance at some of the protests may be the reason for her expulsion but is unsure. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Witkoff in Apparent Reversal Says Iran Must Halt Nuclear Enrichment. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to reverse his earlier comments allowing limited Iranian uranium enrichment, now insisting Iran must halt all nuclear enrichment and weaponization for a deal. This shift aligns more with Israeli demands but complicates diplomacy ahead of resumed nuclear talks. Witkoff’s initial flexibility drew criticism from U.S. hardliners and clashed with Trump’s public stance. Iran continues to reject any cap on enrichment, viewing it as essential to its civil nuclear program. The Trump administration seeks strict verification, missile program limits, and permanent enrichment caps, but Iran's rapid weapons-grade capabilities heighten tensions and risk of conflict. Wall Street Journal

Trump called Situation Room meeting on Iran. President Donald Trump convened a Situation Room meeting with top national security officials on Tuesday to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program ahead of a second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for Saturday in Oman. The discussions focused on developing a framework for a potential nuclear deal. While Trump continues to threaten military action if Iran pursues nuclear weapons, he also supports diplomacy, stressing that the Islamic Republic must never obtain a nuclear bomb. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt asserted that the administration’s “maximum pressure campaign on Iran continues.” Despite positive signs from recent discussions, Iran maintains that dismantling its nuclear or missile programs is not negotiable. Reuters Reuters New York Times Axios

Iranian president accepts resignation of 2015 nuclear deal negotiator, just before arrival of UN atomic chief. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has officially accepted the resignation of Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif, a key figure in the country’s 2015 nuclear deal, just as the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, is set to visit Tehran. Zarif, a supporter of Pezeshkian, resigned in March amid pressure from hard-liners but had his resignation accepted only now. He will be replaced by moderate legal expert Mohsen Ismaili. The developments come as Iran prepares for a second round of nuclear talks with the U.S. amid mounting hostilities. Iran continues to enrich uranium near weapons-grade levels and has limited access for IAEA inspectors since the collapse of the 2015 agreement following President Trump’s withdrawal. Any new deal is expected to rely on IAEA oversight. Associated Press 

Would military strikes kill Iran's nuclear program? Probably not. Military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program by the U.S. or Israel would likely only delay, not destroy, its capabilities. Key enrichment sites are deeply buried and hard to reach, especially for Israel, which lacks the U.S.'s most powerful bunker-busting bombs. Experts warn such attacks could backfire—prompting Iran to expel United Nations inspectors, move operations fully underground, and accelerate bomb development. Iran’s knowledge and dispersed facilities make full elimination nearly impossible without regime change or occupation, raising concerns about long-term escalation. Reuters

British maritime agency reports incident near Yemen's Aden. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported an incident involving a vessel 100 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen—the first such report in the area in months. The vessel was followed by multiple small boats for about two hours, during which shots were fired. The crew remained safe, however, and the ship continued to its next destination. The attackers were not identified. The incident comes amid ongoing threats from Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi group, which has carried out over 100 attacks on shipping since late 2023 in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Although attacks paused briefly in January, the Houthis resumed them in March and have pledged further action following U.S. military operations in Yemen. Reuters 

US military poised to slash troops in Syria, officials say. The U.S. military plans to significantly reduce its troop presence in Syria, possibly cutting the force from around 2,000 to about 1,000 soldiers, according to officials. The move is part of a broader consolidation effort, though some within the administration are skeptical of such a sharp drawdown amid ongoing tensions with Iran. U.S. forces in Syria have worked with Kurdish-led partners to counter Islamic State. The reduction comes as Washington reassesses global troop deployments under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s leadership. Reuters

Shin Bet official accused of leaking classified information.  Israel has arrested a Shin Bet official on suspicion of leaking classified information to journalists and to Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli. Israeli officials said Tuesday that the suspect has been held for nearly a week and questioned by the Justice Ministry's department that investigates police misconduct. Shin Bet said the suspect "exploited his security role and direct access to Shin Bet information systems to extract classified material and transfer it to unauthorized parties on multiple occasions and in a covert manner."  Haaretz

Netanyahu tells Macron that recognizing Palestine would be a win ‘for terrorism.’ Recognizing a Palestinian state would constitute a massive win for Hamas and Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a phone call on April 15. Netanyahu argued that such a state near Israeli cities, which he referred to as a “huge prize for terrorism,” would “become an Iranian stronghold” for terror. He added that the majority of Israelis staunchly oppose the concept. His comments came in response to Macron’s recent statement that France could recognize Palestinian statehood in the coming months, describing it as a “fair” step. Macron also reportedly told his Israeli counterpart that “the ordeal the civilian populations of Gaza are going through must end.” Meanwhile, Israel’s war in Gaza continues, with over 50,000 reported dead and a worsening humanitarian crisis as ceasefire negotiations remain stalled. Politico EU France 24 Times of Israel 

Israeli raids in the West Bank send tens of thousands fleeing, with no place to shelter.  Some 40,000 Palestinians living in the West Bank fled their homes in January and February in the largest displacement since Israel captured the territory in the 1967 war. Israeli raids have cleared and largely destroyed several refugee camps in the northern West Bank where Palestinian families driven from their homes in previous wars were living.  The Palestinian Authority plans to bring in prefabricated containers to house some 20,000 displaced people. But it’s unclear when they will arrive.  Associated Press 

Israeli airstrike on Gaza hospital entrance kills medic, wounds nine.   An Israeli airstrike on Gaza hit the gate of the Kuwaiti Field Hospital in the Muwasi area Tuesday, killing a medic and wounding nine patients.  Two of the patients were in critical condition after the strike, a hospital spokesman said.  Hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are living in the Muwasi area, mostly in tents after fleeing their homes in southern Gaza. Palestinians are now banned from entering Rafah City, the southernmost border city.  Associated Press The Guardian 

Israel says zero humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, as a means to pressure Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Wednesday asserted that his country will not permit any humanitarian aid to enter Gaza in order to pressure Hamas. Negotiations around an Israeli proposal for a ceasefire continue. Reuters 

Israel thwarts attempt to 'smuggle' weapons from Egypt to Israeli territory, army says. The Israeli army said on Tuesday that it shot down a drone that attempted to "smuggle" weapons from Egypt into Israeli territory. Reuters Times of Israel Jerusalem Post 

Hamas armed wing says it lost contact with group holding Israeli-US hostage Alexander. Hamas’ armed wing announced it has lost contact with the group holding Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old Israeli American soldier captured during the October 7, 2023 attack. The loss occurred after an Israeli strike on the location where he was held. Hamas warned hostages' families their loved ones may die due to Israeli military actions. Alexander is believed to be the last living American hostage. His release remains a top U.S. priority amid stalled ceasefire talks and continued Israeli operations. Reuters 

Maldives, protesting Gaza war, formally bars travelers with Israeli passports from entering island nation. The Maldives on Monday officially banned entry to Israeli passport holders in response to Israel’s actions in Gaza, which the government described as a genocide against Palestinians in the devastated enclave. The immigration law amendment was passed by Parliament and signed by President Mohamed Muizzu. However, Israeli citizens with a second passport may still enter. Although the decision was made nearly a year ago, it was only formalized this week. The Maldives, a Muslim-majority nation that has legally banned other faiths, and is renowned for luxury tourism, saw 59 Israeli passport holders visit in February. Associated Press Times of Israel Deutsche Welle Jerusalem Post 

Jordan reportedly foiled attacks by Muslim Brotherhood. Jordanian authorities on Tuesday announced the arrest of 16 members of the Muslim Brotherhood who have been accused of planning rocket and drone attacks inside the country. Authorities said the group, trained and financed in Lebanon, had been under surveillance since 2021 and was preparing to launch at least one rocket. Security forces uncovered a weapons manufacturing facility near the capital, Amman. The General Intelligence Department said the alleged scheme was “aimed at harming national security, sowing chaos and causing material destruction inside the kingdom.” The suspects have been referred to the state security court, and officials warned the Brotherhood could be banned if implicated. The Brotherhood denies involvement, insisting it has long pursued a peaceful political path in Jordan, where its political arm holds significant parliamentary influence. Jordanian officials say the plot signals a shift in tactics and is linked to Iran-backed groups trying to destabilize the country, which hosts over 3,500 U.S. troops. Jordan has recently foiled multiple arms smuggling attempts from Syria and Lebanon, raising concerns about growing regional threats. Reuters Times of Israel

ASIA & OCEANIA

India offers cheap loans for arms, targeting Russia's traditional customers. India is ramping up efforts to become a global arms supplier by offering cheap, long-term loans—especially to countries with high political or credit risks—through its Export-Import Bank. It’s targeting former Russian arms clients amid global rearmament trends. India plans to send more defense attachés abroad to promote sales and is offering weapons like missiles and howitzers at lower prices than Western counterparts. Though newer to selling high-end arms, India aims to double defense exports to $6 billion by 2029. Reuters

U.S., Philippine joint combat drills show Trump is not scaling back on South China Sea region. About 14,000 U.S. and Filipino troops will participate in joint military exercises in the Philippines from April 21 to May 9, signaling the Trump administration’s continued commitment to deterring regional threats, especially near the South China Sea and Taiwan. The drills, which include live-fire exercises, anti-ship missile systems, and special operations near Taiwan, have drawn objections from China. Despite Trump’s “America First” stance, officials emphasized that U.S. military presence and readiness in Asia remain robust and strategically focused. Associated Press 

U.S. senators touch down in Taiwan, for trade discussions, meeting with President Lai. Three U.S. senators—Republicans Pete Ricketts and Ted Budd, and Democrat Chris Coons—are visiting Taiwan this week to meet with President Lai Ching-te and other senior officials. Their visit, the first by U.S. lawmakers since President Trump took office in January, is set to focus on trade, regional security, and Washington-Taipei relations. The trip coincides with ongoing U.S.-Taiwan talks over paused tariffs, including a proposed 32% levy. The U.S. continues to support Taiwan diplomatically and militarily despite lacking formal ties, emphasizing a commitment to a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” Reuters 

China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands. China has ordered its airlines to halt deliveries of Boeing jets and suspend purchases of U.S. aircraft parts, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. after President Trump imposed tariffs up to 145% on Chinese goods. The move affects Boeing's already declining market presence in China, once a key market accounting for nearly a quarter of its output. Boeing shares fell on the news. Some aircraft already en route may still be accepted. China’s response is seen as both retaliation and leverage in ongoing trade negotiations. While Boeing may offset losses with sales to India, long-term access to China remains vital. Bloomberg 

Pity American firms in China. Xi Jinping is hitting back. American firms in China are facing mounting pressure as the U.S.-China trade war escalates under President Trump. Tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports and retaliatory Chinese measures—including bans, investigations, and reduced Boeing orders—threaten decades of U.S. business success. Companies like Apple, Boeing, and Tesla face declining revenues, while services such as law and consulting are under regulatory assault. China is leveraging legal tools and public sentiment to squeeze U.S. firms, favoring local champions like Huawei. Meanwhile, Trump's unpredictable trade policy is destabilizing operations and weakening U.S. government support abroad. The Economist

China says it is 'tearing down walls' to expand trade alliances amid US standoff. China is intensifying efforts to expand global trade alliances amid a deepening trade war with the U.S., promoting cooperation over confrontation. Responding to President Trump’s steep 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. imports. Chinese officials emphasized a diplomatic stance of “shaking hands, not fists” and dismantling trade barriers. President Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asia tour highlights China’s pivot to regional supply chain partnerships, with new deals signed in Vietnam. The World Trade Organization warns the standoff could slash trade by up to 80%, threatening global economic growth. Reuters

Xi calls for UN, multilateral systems to be upheld on Southeast Asia trip. During his Southeast Asia tour, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Malaysia and called for upholding the UN-based international system, multilateral trade, and stable global supply chains. Amid rising U.S.-China tensions, Xi emphasized cooperation under China's Belt and Road Initiative and welcomed more Malaysian agricultural imports. He criticized protectionism and unilateralism, contrasting China’s approach with Trump’s tariff-heavy policies. Reuters

China appoints new top international trade negotiator amid tariff tensions with the US.  China has appointed Li Chenggang as its new trade negotiator amid escalating tariff tensions with the U.S., replacing Wang Shouwen. The move comes as both nations raise tariffs—China now faces 145% U.S. tariffs, while Beijing imposed 125% on U.S. goods. Li, a World Trade Organization veteran and pro-free trade advocate, is expected to represent China's stance in future talks. Despite the strong Q1 growth of 5.4%, analysts predict economic pressure from tariffs. President Xi continues to promote China as a stable global trade partner. Associated Press South China Morning Post  

Xi Jinping urges Vietnam to oppose Donald Trump’s tariff ‘bullying.’ Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Vietnam to join China in opposing what he called U.S. “unilateral bullying,” a reference to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. During his visit to Hanoi, Xi promoted deeper strategic cooperation, signed 45 agreements, and emphasized maintaining global supply chain stability. Trump, meanwhile, accused China and Vietnam of trying to “screw” the U.S., defending his tariff campaign. Critics warn that Trump’s approach risks pushing Southeast Asian nations closer to Beijing. Financial Times

China posts robust first-quarter growth. China’s economy grew a strong 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to GDP figures released Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The year-on-year expansion exceeded Beijing’s full-year target of 5 percent for 2025.  Economists expect China’s economy to come under pressure as U.S. tariffs take effect. NBS deputy commissioner Sheng Laiyun warned that “the current external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, the driving force for domestic effective demand growth is insufficient and the foundation for the economy to continue its rebound and improvement still needs to be solidified.” Sheng said China’s “resilience” has enabled exports to grow rapidly despite tariffs and trade restrictions. Financial Times

Hong Kong leaps into the fray, says post office will cease shipments of parcels to the U.S. Hong Kong has suspended its postal service for packages to the United States in response to escalating U.S. tariffs, marking its first direct move in the ongoing Washington-Beijing trade war. The decision follows President Trump's recent order to close a loophole that had allowed tariff-free shipments under $800, which will now face tariffs as high as 145% starting May 2. Hongkong Post said it will stop accepting surface mail to the U.S. immediately and airmail from April 27, calling the U.S. actions "unreasonable" and "bullying." Hong Kong, traditionally a neutral trading hub between China and the U.S., is increasingly caught in the middle of the conflict. With exports to the U.S. totaling $34.8 billion in 2023, the halt will significantly impact trade and shipping businesses. Chinese officials condemned the White House’s measures, as tensions continue to rise over Hong Kong’s autonomy and its role in global trade. New York Times The Hill Associated Press The Independent  

Trump’s love-hate relationship with Japan leaves country scrambling to stay close. U.S. President Trump recently imposed a 24% tariff on Japanese imports as part of a broader trade crackdown, despite expressing admiration for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated three years ago. Japan, while still facing new tariffs—including a 25% levy on autos—has been given an early opportunity to negotiate relief, unlike other allies such as Canada and European nations. Japan’s current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has declared the tariffs a "national crisis" but is pursuing negotiations, sending a top envoy to Washington this week. Trump’s attitude toward Japan reflects a long-standing mix of admiration and grievance, dating back to his real estate days in the 1980s. He praises Japan’s culture and strategic savvy while criticizing what he sees as unfair trade practices. Tokyo has responded with gestures of goodwill—like Abe’s early visit and gift in 2016 and recent outreach from Ishiba and Abe’s widow—but results have been mixed. Trump continues to demand more imports of American goods and claims Japan benefits unfairly from the security alliance. Still, Japan hopes that early diplomatic efforts will secure an exemption from the sweeping tariffs. New York Times 

AFRICA

Sudan’s paramilitary RSF declare rival government. Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have declared a rival government, escalating a devastating two-year civil war that has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo claimed the group aims to build a unified, lawful Sudan and provide nationwide services. Fighting continues near el-Fasher, displacing tens of thousands amid famine-like conditions and widespread atrocities. Over 150,000 people have died, and 12 million have been displaced. At a UK-hosted conference, Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced £120 million in aid and called for peace, while the African Union opposed partitioning the country. BBC Al Jazeera France 24 

U.N., G7 ministers urge immediate ceasefire in bloody Sudanese civil war. The U.N. and G7 foreign ministers on Tuesday called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Sudan, condemning attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the second anniversary of the civil war. The conflict, which broke out in April 2023 due to a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the RSF, has derailed efforts toward establishing civilian governance in the country. Sudan Tribune Reuters U.S. Department of State 

U.S. blasts Sudan's paramilitary forces for brutal attacks on civilians, calls for accountability. The Trump administration has condemned attacks by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on civilians in North Darfur, particularly in displacement camps in Zamzam and Abu Shouk. On Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce called for accountability and adherence to international humanitarian law. The civil war, which began in April 2023 between Sudan’s army and the RSF, has displaced hundreds of thousands and derailed hopes for civilian rule. Bruce urged the warring sides to negotiate peace but declined to comment on whether the administration agrees with a previous U.S. finding that the RSF committed genocide. Reuters U.S. Department of State  

Rights group reports brutal crackdown on post-election protests in Mozambique. Amnesty International has accused Mozambique’s security forces of conducting a brutal three-month crackdown on protesters following disputed elections in October 2024. The rights group reported that over 300 people were killed and more than 3,000 injured, citing local civil society sources, though authorities acknowledged only 96 deaths. The protests erupted over alleged election fraud favoring ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo and intensified after the assassination of opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane’s lawyer. Amnesty detailed the use of live ammunition, rubber bullets, and tear gas against largely peaceful demonstrators, along with mass arrests, including teenagers. The report also noted internet restrictions during key protest periods. While President Chapo has since promised to carry out investigations, violence continues, including a recent shooting of a top Mondlane campaign aide. The ruling Frelimo party, in power since 1975, faces renewed scrutiny amid longstanding accusations of electoral manipulation. Associated Press Amnesty International 

Rift between France, Algeria widening as Paris expels 12 Algerian officials. France has expelled 12 Algerian diplomats in response to Algeria's expulsion of 12 French officials, further escalating tensions between the two countries. The North African nation cited the arrest of an Algerian consular official in France—linked to a kidnapping case involving an anti-government influencer—as the reason for its action. France, calling Algeria's move unjustified, also recalled its ambassador and blamed Algiers for a breakdown in relations. Tempers have been flaring since Paris backed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara last summer, straining ties with Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front. The arrest and sentencing of French Algerian writer Boualem Sansal in November further worsened the situation. Despite a brief diplomatic thaw following a call between Presidents Macron and Tebboune, the dispute has quickly reignited. Associated Press France 24 Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Pentagon’s ‘SWAT team of nerds’ resigns en masse.  Nearly all staff at the Pentagon’s Defense Digital Service (DDS), a tech innovation unit known as the military’s “SWAT team of nerds,” are resigning by the end of April, effectively shutting down the decade-old program. The mass departure comes under pressure from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has sidelined the office in favor of centralizing tech efforts elsewhere. DDS was instrumental in developing rapid tech solutions during crises, including the Afghanistan withdrawal and Ukraine aid logistics. Staff expected to support DOGE’s AI initiatives but were instead excluded. The resignations reflect growing dissatisfaction with DOGE’s disruptive and opaque approach, which has also dismantled similar federal tech programs like 18F and absorbed the U.S. Digital Service. Despite past struggles with staffing and bureaucratic hurdles, DDS employees insist they would have stayed if not for DOGE’s overhaul. A Pentagon spokesperson stated DDS functions would be absorbed by the Chief Digital and AI Office.  Politico

Nvidia to take $5.5 billion hit as U.S. clamps down on exports of AI chips to China. Nvidia expects a $5.5 billion revenue hit after the U.S. imposed new export restrictions on its H20 AI chips to China, citing national security concerns. The move, part of President Trump’s broader trade crackdown, requires special licenses for chip sales and impacts rivals like AMD as well. Nvidia’s shares dropped 6% in after-hours trading, contributing to a broader tech market decline. The H20 accounted for a significant portion of Nvidia’s China sales, and its future is uncertain amid rising tensions and China’s push for domestic chip alternatives. The restrictions reflect deepening U.S.-China rivalry over AI and semiconductor dominance. Financial Times

Nvidia kept some China customers in the dark about new US chip clampdown, sources say. Nvidia did not inform key Chinese customers in advance about new U.S. export rules requiring licenses to sell its H20 AI chip, sources said. Even Nvidia’s own China sales team appeared unaware before the public disclosure. Major Chinese firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance had been expecting deliveries by year-end and were blindsided by the announcement. The lack of prior notice disrupted planning for several tech giants that had increased orders amid growing demand for AI chips. Reuters

Whistleblower org says DOGE may have caused 'significant cyber breach' at U.S. labor watchdog. A whistleblower complaint alleges that Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service technologists may have caused a major cybersecurity breach at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), compromising around 10 gigabytes of sensitive case data. The complaint, based on IT staffer Daniel Berulis’ affidavit, claims DOGE had unusually broad system access and that logging protocols were tampered with. Berulis also reported attempted Russian logins and received a drone-delivered threat. The NLRB denies any breach; CISA and FBI declined to comment. Reuters 

Cybersecurity world tense after MITRE warns of lapse with CVE program as contract with US set to expire. The MITRE Corporation warned that its contract to manage the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) program may expire on April 16, halting updates to the vital cybersecurity database. The program, funded by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through its Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), is essential for tracking known software vulnerabilities. MITRE said the CVE website could go offline, prompting fears of national security risks. DHS and CISA have not explained the contract lapse. The Record SecurityWeek Forbes 

Trump’s AI infrastructure plans could face delays due to Texas Republicans. President Donald Trump’s $500 billion AI infrastructure plan—backed by OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and UAE-linked MGX—faces delays in Texas due to new legislation (Senate Bill 6) that would extend data center approval times and raise costs. The bill, aimed at protecting the Texas power grid, may deter future builds despite Trump’s push to rival China in AI. Critics say it threatens the entire project. Added tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty further complicate efforts amid an intensifying global AI race. The Guardian  

EU confirms issuing ‘burner phones’ to top officials but denies practice caused by Trump. The European Commission confirmed it occasionally issues “burner phones” to top officials for security purposes but denied doing so specifically in response to visiting the United States or under Donald Trump’s administration. This follows a Financial Times report suggesting new European Union guidance warned of surveillance risks in the U.S. The Commission acknowledged updates to travel security guidelines amid global cybersecurity threats but insisted the use of burner devices is a longstanding, global precaution—not uniquely tied to U.S. visits or current political tensions. The Record 

Russian state hackers target European diplomats — with fake wine-tasting events. Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear targeted European diplomats with fake wine-tasting event invitations containing malware, according to cybersecurity firm Check Point. Disguised as messages from a major European Union foreign affairs ministry, the phishing emails aimed to compromise diplomatic systems. Cozy Bear, tied to Russia’s foreign intelligence service, has been behind high-profile cyberattacks like the SolarWinds breach. The campaign, active since January, may have also targeted diplomats in the Middle East. It's unclear if the attacks were successful. Politico EU 

Hackers using AI-produced audio to impersonate tax preparers, IRS. Hackers are using AI-generated audio and deepfake technology to impersonate IRS agents, tax preparers, and accountants in a wave of tax-season scams. Cybercriminals leverage stolen personal data to make voice phishing, emails, and video messages highly convincing. Experts warn of a rise in mobile-based attacks, fake tax apps, spoofed websites, and phishing emails with malware-laced PDFs. Victims are lured into revealing Social Security numbers and financial info. Security professionals urge caution, identity verification, and awareness of AI-generated content. The Record

23andMe bankruptcy draws investigation from House panel over data concerns. The House Oversight Committee is investigating genetic testing firm 23andMe’s bankruptcy over concerns about the potential transfer of sensitive genetic data, especially to foreign entities like China. Chair James Comer has requested testimony from co-founder Anne Wojcicki, citing risks to consumer privacy, including insurance discrimination and targeted ads. An October 2023 breach exposed data of 6 million users. The FTC has warned buyers to honor existing privacy terms. A hearing is set for May 6. The Record  Reuters 

UK minister’s official X account hacked to promote crypto. British Cabinet minister Lucy Powell’s official X (formerly Twitter) account was hacked on April 15 to promote a fake cryptocurrency called “House of Commons Coin.” The account posted misleading claims about a blockchain initiative before the tweets were swiftly deleted. Powell’s spokesperson confirmed the hack and said the account was secured. The U.K. Parliament emphasized its commitment to cybersecurity. Powell joins other high-profile figures, including BBC journalists, who have been targeted with similar crypto-related hacks. Politico EU 

Space Force ‘Meadowlands’ jammer ready for formal testing. The U.S. Space Force is set to begin testing “Meadowlands,” a new satellite jammer developed by L3Harris. The upgraded system offers greater mobility, broader frequency interference, automation, and remote control. Replacing older jammers, it enhances electronic warfare capabilities amid growing threats from China and Russia’s space activities. Defense News 

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