Open Source Report for Tuesday, March 11, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Ukraine Must Cede Territory in Any Peace Deal, Rubio Says

Ukraine hits Moscow in its largest drone attack of the war

Kremlin says allegations of Russian sabotage in Europe, U.S. are 'empty and unproven'

UN Security Council to convene over Iran’s expanding stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium

Widely used Chinese-made microchip discovered to have ‘undocumented commands’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

In Post-Rebellion Syria, Deadly Violence and Huge Opportunity. Syria has seen a spate of large-scale violence as Assad loyalists rose up last week against forces loyal to the rebel movement that now governs the country. In a separate development, the interim government signed a deal with the Kurdish-led authority that controls the country’s northeast – a breakthrough that would bring most of Syria under the control of the new government. The Cipher Brief recently spoke with Charles Lister, a longtime expert on Syria, to assess this moment for Syria. Lister – who was in Syria just prior to the latest spate of violence – sees potential for future unrest, major governance challenges that lie ahead, but above all a population that is largely “elated to be free of the grip” of the Assad regime. The Cipher Brief

Expert Q&A: From Ukraine to North Korea’s New Nuclear Sub. Retired Admiral James Stavridis, a Cipher Brief expert, warned of two key threats: Ukraine and North Korea’s new nuclear submarine. He called the pause in U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine after the clash between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky is “dangerous” and predicted a 65% chance that a minerals deal could restore military support, though at reduced levels. Stavridis said Russia is repaying North Korea for sending 12,000 troops to Ukraine with nuclear technology and submarine-building assistance. "Nuclear submarines are the apex predators of the ocean," he said, warning that a sub with cruise missiles could threaten U.S. cities from offshore.  “For China, North Korea obtaining nuclear attack submarines is exactly like the United States having Australia obtain nuclear powered submarines, which they’re doing right now. This is part of the AUKUS alliance and program – Australia, the U.S., and the United Kingdom,” Stavridis said “If both Russia and China are providing submarine technology to Kim Jong-un, that becomes the Asian version on the authoritarian side of AUKUS.” The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine, U.S. begin key meeting in Saudi Arabia. U.S. and Ukrainian officials began talks in Jeddah on Tuesday, but major differences remain over how to end the war. Ukraine seeks a cease-fire for air and naval attacks, with security guarantees before withdrawing ground forces. The U.S. wants an immediate comprehensive cease-fire, while Russia, which is not participating, demands territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine’s military. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine must be ready for "difficult things" to reach a deal. Ukraine’s broader goal is to resume U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing, but skepticism remains about Russia’s willingness to honor any agreement. New York Times Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine Must Cede Territory in Any Peace Deal, Rubio Says. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that Ukraine would need to cede territory Russia has occupied since 2014 as part of any peace agreement. Rubio commented en route to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for talks with senior Ukrainian officials. The remarks follow a tense Feb. 28 meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after which Trump halted military aid. Any potential settlement, Rubio said, would entail concessions on both sides. “The Russians can’t conquer all of Ukraine, and, obviously, it will be very difficult for Ukraine in any reasonable time period to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014,” Rubio said. “So the only solution to this war is diplomacy and getting them to a table where that’s possible.” He said future talks with Moscow would be needed to determine what Russia is willing to concede. “It may be incompatible with what the Russians are willing to do,” he said. “That’s what we need to find out.” Rubio also confirmed the U.S. still shares intelligence with Ukraine for defense and denied that Ukraine's access to Starlink was ever threatened. He said resuming military aid would depend on Ukraine’s commitment to peace and that further sanctions on Russia remain possible. Rubio also said the U.S. has not discussed easing sanctions on Russia with the European Union yet. “Obviously, the Europeans have their own set of sanctions, and they'll have to make the decision about what they're willing to do," he said. New York Times Reuters Washington Post Wall Street Journal Politico Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

87% of Ukrainians believe Russia will not stop at occupied territories, survey finds. A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) survey published on March 11 shows that 87% of Ukrainians believe Russia will continue its aggression beyond occupied territories. Across regions, 80% in the east and south and 89-90% in the west and center share this view. Two-thirds believe Russia’s goal is Ukraine's destruction—28% see it as genocide, while 38% say Moscow aims to erase Ukraine’s statehood. Only 4% believe Russia will stop at current gains. The survey, conducted from Feb. 14 to March 4 with 1,029 respondents, reflects fears that U.S. pressure for a deal could weaken Ukraine’s position. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky meets with Saudi crown prince before U.S.-Ukraine talks. President Volodymyr Zelensky met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday in Jeddah, ahead of U.S.-Ukraine talks on Tuesday. Zelensky seeks Saudi mediation to secure a deal to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Ukraine’s battlefield position has improved slightly, but Russian forces continue to pressure Ukrainian troops in Donetsk and Kursk. New York Times Reuters 

Trump envoy plans talks with Putin in Russia after U.S.-Ukraine summit. White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow later this week, following a Tuesday U.S.-Ukraine summit in Saudi Arabia about a possible ceasefire in Russia's war on Ukraine. Witkoff, who previously met Putin in February to secure the release of Marc Fogel, will act as President Donald Trump’s main communication channel with Russia. Witkoff left Miami on Monday, with planned stops in Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Qatar before heading to Moscow, though plans could shift based on Gaza ceasefire talks and Putin's schedule. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz are also in Jeddah for the Ukraine talks. Axios

Ukraine hits Moscow in its largest drone attack of the war.  Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, targeting the Russian capital and nine other regions early Tuesday. The Russian Defense Ministry reported downing over 300 drones, including 91 near Moscow and 126 over the Kursk region, where Ukraine holds a small foothold. The attack killed two persons and injured 18 in the Moscow region, while power lines were damaged in Belgorod. Drones also hit the Dyagilevo military airfield near Ryazan. Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian infrastructure as it strengthens its domestic drone and missile capabilities. Moscow has responded with intensified attacks on Ukraine's eastern front and supply routes in Kursk. “All the drone strikes in Russia tonight — on Moscow, on airports and so on — are the signal to Putin that he also must be interested in a truce in the sky that Ukraine is going to offer today during talks. Not only oil refineries," Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian government’s center for countering disinformation, said in a video statement. "Drones can also massively attack Moscow. Of course, air defense shoots down those drones. But this does not save Russians from panic.” Andrey Kartapolov, head of Russia’s State Duma Defense Committee, said Russia should retaliate by striking Ukraine with an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Wall Street Journal Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent Associated Press Sky News Politico EU Voice of America Kyiv Independent

Russian Forces Depleted and Stalling on Eastern Front, Ukraine Says. Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia’s offensive in Donetsk and regained small patches of land despite facing a shortage of troops and weapons. Russia remains on the offensive, conducting dozens of attacks daily, but its brigades are depleted after 15 months of assaults. Ukrainian soldiers said the loss of U.S. intelligence and halted military aid following a tense February 28 meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky has weakened Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets. Russia has gained ground in the Kursk region with support from North Korean soldiers. In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed parts of Dachenske but need more resources to hold it. Toretsk has seen intense street fighting, with Ukrainian troops advancing despite Russian assaults. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces have captured parts of the town, but Ukrainian defenders have slowed their progress. Despite losses, Ukrainian troops are finding opportunities for localized counterattacks and inflicting heavy casualties on Russian forces. New York Times

Russia claims to recapture 12 Kursk Oblast settlements amid new offensive. Russia claims to have recaptured 12 settlements and 100 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast during a new offensive, according to the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday. Ukraine’s military has not confirmed the losses, but the DeepState monitoring group reported significant setbacks. Russian and North Korean troops are reportedly attacking near Sudzha, but Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi denied encirclement risks, saying Ukrainian forces are reinforcing with drones and electronic warfare. Syrskyi noted some settlements “no longer exist” due to Russian shelling. The offensive follows the U.S. suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Trump says Russia 'doesn't have the cards' in peace talks with Ukraine. President Donald Trump said on Monday that neither Ukraine nor Russia holds the advantage in peace talks. "I say they (Ukraine) don't have the cards. Nobody really has the cards. Russia doesn't have the cards. What you have to do is you have to make a deal, and you have to stop the killing. It's a senseless war, and we are going to get it stopped," Trump said. Presidential envoy Steve Witkoff said the talks will also address territorial issues, security, and intelligence sharing. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky’s High-Wire Act: Satisfying Ukrainians—and Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a political challenge balancing domestic support and pressure from President Donald Trump for a peace deal with Russia. After Trump halted U.S. aid and intelligence sharing, Zelensky seeks to restore ties. Trump has pushed Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia and compensate the U.S. through a minerals deal. While open to a minerals deal, Zelensky insists Ukraine will not surrender Russian-occupied land. Wall Street Journal

Trump’s Attacks Give Zelensky a Bit of a Reprieve at Home. ​​President Volodymyr Zelensky’s popularity had been falling as Ukrainians grew frustrated with his handling of the war and his concentration of power. Political opponents, including former President Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, were positioning themselves for future elections, and Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, had higher approval ratings. Zelensky’s standing improved after President Donald Trump harshly criticized him. Many Ukrainians saw Trump’s criticism as unfair, causing them to rally behind Zelensky. His approval rating jumped to 67% from 57%. However, Zelensky still faces serious challenges. The war continues and U.S. military aid remains suspended. Political rivals have backed off for now but could renew pressure if the war drags on or a peace deal requires concessions. New York Times

Starmer tells Trump he hopes Saudi talks will end pause of U.S. aid, intelligence to Ukraine.  British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday he hoped talks in Saudi Arabia this week would have a positive outcome and enable Washington to end its pause of U.S. aid and intelligence to Ukraine, his spokesperson said. Starmer's spokesperson also said UK officials had been speaking to Ukrainian officials over the weekend ahead of the talks in Saudi Arabia and "they remained committed to a lasting peace.” Reuters Financial Times

Musk calls Sen. Kelly a 'traitor' over trip to Ukraine; Kelly hits back. Elon Musk called Senator Mark Kelly a "traitor" after Kelly’s visit to Ukraine, where he stressed that any peace deal must protect Ukraine’s security. Kelly replied, "Traitor? Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do." Kelly later told reporters that Musk is "not a serious guy" who "should go back to building rockets." He criticized Musk for cutting veterans' jobs through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which Musk leads. Kelly accused Musk of prioritizing billionaire interests over veterans and national security. Musk’s comments reflect his alignment with President Donald Trump, who has demanded Ukraine make concessions to Russia. Senator Elizabeth Warren defended Kelly, calling him a "patriot." Chef José Andrés invited Musk to visit Ukraine, saying, "Ukrainians are good people fighting for freedom and democracy." ABC News Washington Post Reuters

Ukraine's top general says no risk of encirclement for Kyiv's troops in Kursk. Ukrainian Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Monday that Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk region are not at risk of encirclement despite a Russian counteroffensive involving North Korean troops. Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces are maneuvering to stronger defensive positions and have repelled two Russian attacks. Open source maps show Russian forces creating a narrow salient in territory Ukraine seized last year, possibly for use in peace talks. Syrskyi noted that several border settlements have been destroyed by Russian shelling. He added that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian reconnaissance groups and infantry attempting to enter the Sumy region. Reuters

Deterrence among the key questions as army chiefs from 30-plus countries talk about a Ukraine force. Military chiefs from over 30 countries are meeting in Paris to discuss creating a multinational force to deter Russian aggression after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Led by France and Britain, the proposed "coalition of the willing" aims to provide security guarantees without U.S. involvement. The force may include 30,000 troops, heavy weaponry, and rapid response capabilities. Some Ukrainian officials are skeptical about the lack of clear security guarantees and response plans. Talks are ongoing to define the force's size, scope, and military options. Ukraine welcomes the proposal but insists it must be backed by U.S. and European weapons and support. Associated Press

Rebuilding Ukraine steel capacity hinges on security guarantees, Metinvest CEO says. Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov said rebuilding Ukraine's steel capacity depends on strong U.S. and European security guarantees in any ceasefire with Russia. Metinvest, Ukraine’s largest steel producer, lost major assets, including the Azovstal and Illich plants in Mariupol, and closed Ukraine's only coking coal mine in January due to advancing frontlines. Ryzhenkov stressed that businesses need assurance the war won’t restart before investing. Despite planning to maintain 2024 production levels and improve energy independence, larger projects are on hold. Ryzhenkov said any future U.S. investment would require parallel security guarantees to reduce risk and encourage financing. Reuters

Why Ukraine hopes Trump minerals deal will win back U.S. support. Ukraine is negotiating a critical minerals deal with the U.S. to secure economic support and encourage American backing for a ceasefire. The proposal would give the U.S. a 50% stake in Ukraine's critical minerals, oil, and gas, with profits funding Ukraine’s recovery. Ukraine’s Zavallya quarry holds seven million tonnes of graphite, used in batteries and electric motors, but mining has slowed due to war-related investor withdrawal. President Volodymyr Zelensky sought security guarantees in exchange, but President Donald Trump has refused, believing American business presence alone will deter future Russian aggression. Kyiv sees the deal as vital for both economic and military security. BBC 

US-backed miner TechMet seeks to develop Ukraine lithium site. U.S.-backed miner TechMet plans to develop the Dobra lithium project in Ukraine, potentially one of the first projects under a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal nearing completion. TechMet CEO Brian Menell said Dobra’s lithium resources are “very significant.” TechMet is partly owned by the U.S. government, with other investors including Ronald Lauder, an ally of President Donald Trump. The minerals deal would create a fund from future mining profits to support Ukraine's reconstruction. Menell said the deal would accelerate investment, with TechMet also considering projects in titanium, uranium, and graphite. Ukraine has yet to open bidding for the Dobra project’s development. Financial Times

Australia 'won't be intimidated' by Russian warning on Ukraine, Penny Wong says. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia "won't be intimidated" by Russia’s warning of "grave consequences" if it joins a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. The Russian embassy in Canberra warned that peacekeeping would be a "guise to undermine peace efforts." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia would consider joining a UK- and France-led mission if a US-brokered peace deal is reached. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton criticized the idea, saying Europe should do more. Air Vice-Marshal Di Turton will attend Ukraine support talks in Paris on Tuesday. Russia called Australia's stance "irresponsible adventurism." ABC

Ukraine to buy 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025. Ukraine plans to buy 4.5 million first-person-view (FPV) drones in 2025, costing over $2.6 billion, with $2.4 billion allocated through the Defense Procurement Agency. FPV drones have been effective in destroying expensive military equipment. Ukraine bought 1.5 million drones in 2024, up from several thousand in 2023, with 96% sourced from Ukrainian producers. Drone strikes on Russian targets increased by 22% in February, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Kyiv is also ramping up production of long-range missile-drone hybrids, aiming for 30,000 in 2025. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches air attack on Kyiv, Ukraine says. Russia launched air strikes overnight on Kyiv, with air defense systems engaged in repelling the attack, Ukrainian authorities said late on Monday. "Air defence forces are working to eliminate the threat in the skies over Kyiv," Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters witnesses heard explosions in the capital and surrounding region in what sounded like air defence systems in operation. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Update for Monday, March 10. Russia claims to seek peace without offering concessions, which contrasts with Ukraine's willingness to negotiate on specific issues like a ceasefire and POW exchange. Russian officials are using the Trump administration’s actions to attempt to divide the United States and Europe and secure favorable terms for Russia. Russian forces are consolidating gains in Kursk Oblast and preparing to attack Sudzha while Ukrainian forces are counterattacking along the border. Ukraine is expanding domestic production of drones and air defense systems, including a deal with Diehl Defense to increase IRIS-T supplies. Russian President Vladimir Putin approved measures to increase benefits for Russian veterans, adding pressure to Russia's budget and economy.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump wants to build minerals refining plants on military bases. President Donald Trump is coming up with a plan to build metals refining facilities on military bases to increase domestic production of critical minerals and rare earths and decrease dependence on Chinese minerals, Reuters reported. Trump could sign an executive order to advance the idea as soon as Wednesday.  Trump plans to name a critical minerals czar.  Reuters 

New Canadian leader Mark Carney is everything Trump hates. Mark Carney, set to become the next prime minister of Canada, is a globalist and technocrat. He has led two central banks, attends the World Economic Forum at Davos, and has been heavily involved in fighting climate change. He says he’s not intimidated by Donald Trump.  In response to Trump’s threatened tariffs, Canada has imposed some $20 billion of U.S. imports and targeted another $87 billion worth of U.S. products for the next round.  “My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect,” Carney said Sunday.

Wall Street Journal The Economist  

Ontario adds 25% tax increase to electricity exports to U.S. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that, effective Monday, his province will charge 25% more for electricity it sells to 1.5 million American homes and businesses in Minnesota, New York and Michigan. Ford acted in response to President Donald Trump’s trade war. “I will not hesitate to increase this charge,” Ford said at a news conference in Toronto. “If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely.” Ford added: “Believe me when I say I do not want to do this. I feel terrible for the American people who didn’t start this trade war. It’s one person who is responsible, it’s President Trump.” Associated Press BBC The New York Times  

Analysis: Trump aspires to re-create the Gilded Age and its tariffs. President Donald Trump has often expressed his admiration for the Gilded Age and desire to make America golden again.  “We were at our richest from 1870 to 1913,” Trump said soon after taking office. “That’s when we were a tariff country.”  He admires the nation’s 25th president, William McKinley, assassinated in 1901. Experts on the era say Trump is romanticizing McKinley’s era, a time plagued by corruption and poverty. They say it wasn’t tariffs that stimulated the economy but other factors, such as rapid industrialization.  Associated Press  

Court-martial for Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira begins; he signals he’s ready to plead guilty.

Court-martial trial began on Monday for Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard who has already been convicted and sentenced to 15 years in prison for leaking classified U.S. national security documents online.  During a hearing at Hanscom Air Force Base in Massachusetts, a military judge said Teixeira, 23, had agreed to plead guilty.  His lawyers insisted on first presenting arguments that the charges should be dropped. In January 2022, while serving as an airman first class at Otis Air National Guard Base on Cape Cod, Teixeira began accessing classified information and sharing it with individuals on Discord. Those breaches were uncovered in April 2023.  Reuters 

Rubio says administration finished with purge of USAID programs, 83% of agency’s programs scrapped. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday announced that the Trump administration has completed a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), eliminating 83% of its programs. Rubio announced that the remaining aid programs would be moved under the State Department. The move follows President Donald Trump’s executive order to freeze and review foreign aid, arguing that much of it was wasteful and did not align with U.S. national interests. A federal judge, Amir H. Ali, ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by cutting most foreign assistance, as Congress controls the budget, but stopped short of ordering the restoration of canceled contracts. The judge mandated that Trump officials continue back payments to aid groups and contractors. The cuts, executed by Trump’s appointees, including Pete Marocco and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, have resulted in the termination of 5,200 out of 6,200 USAID programs, affecting efforts in democracy promotion, civil society, health, and emergency response. The administration has not clarified which programs were spared, leaving many aid groups in limbo. USAID staff overseas have been given until April 6 to return home. The decision has sparked legal battles and criticism from lawmakers and aid organizations, who argue that cutting foreign assistance undermines U.S. global influence and security. Associated Press The Guardian NPR Deutsche Welle Bloomberg  

U.S. wants G7 to go soft on Russia. The U.S. is urging a softer G7 stance on Russia at the March 12-14 meeting in Quebec to avoid complicating potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Washington opposes references to sanctions and a statement on Russia’s shadow fleet, alarming allies who fear no compromise is possible. Canada had sought a unified G7 statement addressing Ukraine, the Middle East, and China, but U.S. resistance is complicating agreement. Rubio defended the U.S. position, saying antagonistic language could impede talks. The U.S. also opposed similar measures at the United Nations and World Trade Organization in February. Reuters 

Trump administration rolls out 'self-deportation' app. The Trump administration has introduced a new app, CBP Home, allowing undocumented immigrants in the U.S. to voluntarily "self-deport" rather than risk arrest and detention. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem stated that this option could help migrants leave now and potentially return legally in the future. The app is part of Trump's broader push to deport more immigrants, as he has promised record deportation numbers. A new regulation set to take effect on April 11 will require undocumented individuals to register with the federal government or face fines or jail time. CBP Home replaces the CBP One app, which was launched under Biden and allowed migrants in Mexico to schedule entry appointments at legal border crossings. Trump shut down CBP One immediately after taking office, stranding many migrants with pending appointments. Reuters Associated Press BBC Al Jazeera 

Trump says arrest of pro-Palestinian Columbia student, a lawful U.S. resident, is first of “many to come.” The Trump administration has begun cracking down on campus protests against Israel, starting with the arrest and potential deportation of Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist and former Columbia University graduate student. Trump called Khalil’s detention the first of “many to come” and claimed that pro-Palestinian protests support terrorism. On social media, he asserted that “there are more students at Columbia and other Universities across the Country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity.” He promised to “find, apprehend, and deport these terrorist sympathizers from our country — never to return again.” Khalil, a lawful U.S. resident, was detained by immigration authorities and sent to Louisiana, but a federal judge temporarily halted his deportation pending a legal challenge. Civil rights groups and free speech advocates have condemned the move as an attempt to suppress criticism of Israel. Columbia faculty members and students have also voiced concerns about threats to free speech. Khalil, who was born in Syria to Palestinian parents, entered the U.S. in 2022 to study and later married an American citizen. His wife is eight months pregnant. While he has denied being a protest leader, he was a spokesperson for pro-Palestinian activists. His involvement made him a target of pro-Israel groups, who pushed for his deportation. The Trump administration is also warning 60 universities, including Harvard and Cornell, that they could lose federal funding for failing to combat antisemitism. Protesters in New York have rallied for Khalil’s release, while legal experts argue the government must meet a high standard to deport a permanent resident without a criminal conviction. Reuters CNN Associated Press The Guardian Financial Times France 24    

Immigration officials defend authority to hold migrants at Guantanamo Bay. The U.S. is holding 40 immigrants from 27 countries at Guantanamo Bay, with 23 classified as “high risk” and held in individual cells. Civil rights attorneys sued the Trump administration to stop the transfer of 10 migrants to Guantanamo, alleging mistreatment. The Justice Department defended the detentions, arguing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has broad authority to hold migrants there while awaiting deportation. Trump has proposed expanding Guantanamo’s capacity to hold 30,000 people. Migrants are allowed short phone calls, but legal visits are restricted. Tent facilities for 520 migrants have been installed but are not yet in use. Associated Press 

Cuba confirms completion of prisoner release despite tensions. Cuba’s top court on Monday confirmed the release of 553 prisoners as part of a Vatican-brokered deal, despite complications caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to reverse a prior agreement by former President Joe Biden. Biden had agreed to remove Cuba from the U.S. terrorism blacklist in exchange for the prisoner release, but Trump rescinded the deal and reinstated sanctions, prompting Havana to pause the release process. Despite this, Cuba’s state-run media confirmed Monday that the prisoner release had been completed. Rights groups reported that around 200 of those released were linked to the 2021 anti-government protests, though Cuba did not specify how many were political prisoners versus common criminals. The U.S., EU, and Catholic Church have long pressured Cuba to free demonstrators jailed after the July 2021 protests, the largest since Castro’s revolution in 1959. Reuters Barron's 

U.S.-bound migration through Panama jungle route plummets 99%. The number of migrants crossing the Darien Gap into Panama from Colombia dropped by 99% last month, with only 408 arrivals compared to 37,000 a year ago. This marks the lowest figure since 2020, according to Panama’s Immigration Institute. The decline follows increased security measures and the closure of dangerous jungle routes under Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino. This shift could improve U.S.-Panama relations as President Donald Trump has intensified border security and deportations while pressuring Mexico to curb migration. Bloomberg 

Trump Looms Over Greenland’s Election, but Voters Have Other Concerns. Greenland’s parliamentary election on Tuesday is drawing intense global attention after President Donald Trump renewed his push to acquire the island. Trump has promised Greenlanders wealth and refused to rule out using force. Greenland’s parties differ on independence from Denmark and relations with the U.S., but most citizens are focused on local issues like living costs and healthcare. Pro-Trump candidates advocate closer U.S. ties, while others urge caution. Denmark’s financial support covers over half of Greenland’s budget, complicating independence. Trump’s renewed interest has fueled geopolitical tensions, but most voters prioritize daily concerns over strategic issues. New  York Times Associated Press The Guardian Reuters BBC  

EUROPE

Europe faces stark choices over Russian asset seizure. European leaders are weighing whether to seize $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine's defense as President Donald Trump moves to cut U.S. support and negotiate with Vladimir Putin. Most assets are held in Europe as government bonds, but confiscation raises legal and financial risks, including scaring off other central banks. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that violating sovereign immunity could undermine the euro's global standing. While Germany, France, and Belgium remain opposed, growing pressure from Trump's policy shift may force European capitals to reconsider. Political urgency is mounting as Ukraine’s needs increase. Reuters

Kremlin says allegations of Russian sabotage in Europe and U.S. are 'empty and unproven.’  The Kremlin dismissed Western accusations of Russian sabotage in the U.S. and Europe as "empty and unproven" on Monday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said no evidence of sabotage had been found, even in special investigations. Western governments, including Britain, have accused Russia of sabotage targeting infrastructure. On Friday, three Bulgarians were convicted in London of working for a Russian spy unit linked to Wirecard fugitive Jan Marsalek. Reuters 

Germany’s Greens make Merz sweat over massive spending plan. Friedrich Merz’s plan to boost Germany’s defense and infrastructure spending by €1 trillion faces opposition from the Greens, who hold key votes despite finishing fourth in the February 23 election. The Greens want more climate-focused spending and broader exemptions from Germany’s debt brake for defense, including military aid to Ukraine. Merz and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) must pass the plan within two weeks before the new Bundestag convenes, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and The Left could block it. Talks are ongoing, but the Greens are using their leverage to extract concessions on climate and defense policy. Politico EU

Macron says Moldova is facing blatant Russian destabilisation attempts. French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Monday that Russia is escalating efforts to destabilize Moldova, including airspace violations by drones and targeting of democratic institutions. He spoke after meeting Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Paris. Sandu signed a $32.5 million deal with the French Development Agency to improve energy efficiency and reduce dependence on Russian energy. Sandu accused Moscow of trying to exploit Moldova’s vulnerabilities and use it against Ukraine. Macron pledged French support as Moldova seeks to join the European Union by 2030. Reuters

EU explores joint defense funding as U.S. commitment wavers. European Union finance ministers on Monday discussed joint borrowing, using EU funds, and expanding European Investment Bank (EIB) lending to finance defense projects, with decisions expected in June. Germany supports joint borrowing for defense, while France insists funds should go toward European-made weapons. Concerns have grown since President Donald Trump froze U.S. aid to Ukraine and cut off intelligence, raising fears over reliance on American systems. Ministers are also considering allowing 1.5% of GDP annual defense spending for four years without breaching EU debt rules and expanding the definition of defense spending to include infrastructure and factory construction. Reuters

Czech Premier Urges Opposition to Back Defense Spending Boost. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala urged opposition support for higher defense spending ahead of parliamentary elections in September. The cabinet approved raising defense spending by 0.2% of GDP annually, aiming to reach 3% by 2030. Opposition party ANO, led by Andrej Babis, criticized the plan despite leading in polls. After meeting with President Petr Pavel and parliamentary leaders, Fiala announced talks with all parties on Thursday to seek consensus on strengthening security amid growing geopolitical risks. Bloomberg

Tanker delivering jet fuel for U.S. military struck by cargo ship, set ablaze in North Sea. A Portugal-flagged cargo ship carrying, among other things, 15 containers of sodium cyanide plowed into an anchored tanker loaded with jet fuel for the U.S. military in the North Sea Monday, setting both vessels ablaze and threatening an ecological disaster.  One of 14 crew members from the Portugal-flagged cargo ship Solong was reported missing. The U.S.-flagged chemical and oil tanker MV Stena Immaculate owner said all 23 of its crew members were safe.  The British coast guard ended the search for the missing crew member and confirmed 36 others had been taken ashore. The fires burned for hours, and the tanker leaked jet fuel into the sea.  The British government said it was assessing “any counter-pollution response which may be required over the coming days.” Reuters CBS-News Associated Press BBC   

Russia's arms exports plunge by 47% since full-scale invasion's start, SIPRI reports. Russia's arms exports fell by 47% in 2024 compared to 2022, according to a March report by SIPRI. The drop is linked to Russia prioritizing domestic production, Western sanctions, and U.S.-led pressure on buyers. Over the past five years, Russian arms exports have fallen 64%, cutting its global market share to 7.8%. Russia supplied arms to 33 countries in 2024, down from 47 between 2018 and 2022. India remains the largest buyer (38%), followed by China (17%) and Kazakhstan (11%). Despite the decline, Russia remains among the top three arms exporters, with the U.S. holding a 43% market share. Kyiv Independent

U.S. judge denies ex-Rosneft chief's claim to seized yacht. A U.S. judge ruled that former Rosneft chief Eduard Khudainatov is a "straw owner" of the $300 million superyacht Amadea, seized by the U.S. in 2022. Prosecutors argued Khudainatov held the yacht for sanctioned Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, whose family used it after a 2021 payment. The decision supports U.S. efforts to forfeit the yacht, which could be sold at auction under a 2023 law allowing seized Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine. The Amadea remains in San Diego, costing the U.S. $600,000 monthly. Khudainatov plans to appeal. Reuters

Russia's Gazprom faces almost $20 billion in lawsuits from European energy firms. Gazprom faces nearly $20 billion in lawsuits from European energy firms over gas supply cuts in 2022, after Russia demanded payment in rubles. German energy company Uniper filed the largest claim, seeking €14.3 billion ($15.5 billion) for losses from halted Russian gas supplies. Gazprom has countered with legal action in Russian courts to block foreign proceedings. Gazprom’s gas exports generated $10 billion from Europe and Turkey, $7 billion from China, and $2 billion from Central Asia and the CIS. Meanwhile, Matthias Warnig, a Putin ally, has reportedly lobbied for a Nord Stream 2 pipeline restart. Kyiv Independent

MIDDLE EAST

Syrian government, Kurdish-led authority agree to integration deal. The Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls much of northeastern Syria, reached an agreement to integrate the SDF into state institutions. The pact stipulates that “all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria” be merged into the Syrian state administration, including key border crossings with Turkey and Iraq, oil and gas fields, an airport, and jails holding thousands of Islamic State fighters. It also commits the SDF to countering pro-Assad fighters and affirms that Syria’s Kurdish people have a right to citizenship and guaranteed constitutional rights. The U.S.-backed SDF has controlled a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Syria since 2015. If the agreement is implemented, this area will be brought under the control of Syria’s new leadership. It remains unclear what constitutional status the SDF-controlled territory will have, and whether it will maintain autonomy. There is also the question of whether other minority groups will seek a similar agreement or special status. Still, it is a significant development as the new Syrian government moves to unify the country following the ousting of Assad. Associated Press Financial Times Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

As people are kidnapped on unpatrolled streets, Syrians call for better protection. Since the Syrian rebel coalition unseated President Bashar al-Assad in December, Damascus has seen a surge in kidnappings and violent crime, with families desperate for security in a country struggling to maintain order. One such case involves Homs resident Sami al-Izoo, whose brother was abducted by masked men and held for a $400,000 ransom. Lacking the funds, al-Izoo has turned to selling his belongings, but fears it won’t be enough. The wave of kidnappings for ransom or revenge has intensified following the new government’s decision to dismiss Assad’s police and security forces, leaving a security vacuum. The interim administration has been rapidly training police officers, but with a severe shortage, many towns lack law enforcement, leaving residents afraid to go out at night. Meanwhile, clashes between government security forces and Assad loyalists have erupted, highlighting ongoing instability. At least a dozen kidnappings have been reported, but the full scope remains unclear. Some families never receive ransom demands at all, with their relatives found dead in cases of possible sectarian revenge killings against those with Alawite backgrounds. Many Syrians are pleading for more police presence and security measures. However, officials insist they need time to rebuild a functioning security apparatus after decades of dictatorship. New York Times

Israeli army claims it struck military headquarters, sites holding weapons in Syria’s south. The Israeli army announced on Tuesday that it carried out airstrikes overnight on military headquarters, weapons storage sites, radars, and surveillance systems in southern Syria. The attack is part of Israel’s ongoing strikes on Syria’s military infrastructure. There were no immediate reports of casualties. Reuters  

UN Security Council to convene over Iran's expanding stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to discuss Iran’s expanding uranium enrichment program, which has reached 60% purity, close to weapons-grade levels. The meeting was requested by France, Greece, Panama, South Korea, Britain, and the U.S., who also want Tehran to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding undeclared nuclear materials found at multiple sites. Tehran denies seeking nuclear weapons, claiming its program is peaceful, but Western nations argue that no civilian program requires uranium enrichment at such a high level. The U.S. has reimposed the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran. Britain, France, and Germany have warned they are prepared to trigger the “snapback” of international sanctions to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, their ability to do so will expire on October 18 when the 2015 UN resolution on the deal lapses. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered his UN envoy to cooperate with allies to reinstate sanctions on Iran. For Iran’s part, its mission to the UN said it is open to limited nuclear talks regarding militarization concerns.  Reuters New York Times

Trump Envoy Further Inflames Israel’s Concerns About Direct Talks With Hamas. U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler said Hamas is willing to disarm and release hostages in exchange for a truce and Palestinian prisoner release, sparking criticism from Israeli officials. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called the talks a "mistake," while former security chief Avi Dichter said Hamas would never give up weapons. Boehler insisted the talks aimed to free American hostages, not broker peace. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the attempt but stressed the focus remains on negotiations in Qatar. Hamas reportedly seeks a 10-year truce and easing of Gaza trade restrictions. Wall Street Journal 

Israel's halt to food and aid deliveries worsens Gaza conditions. Israel has halted food, fuel, and medicine deliveries to Gaza, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Six of Gaza's 22 operating bakeries have shut down, and others could close soon due to lack of supplies. Gaza’s water and electricity supplies have been cut, raising health risks. The Red Cross warned that aid supplies are running out. Israel says the move is meant to pressure Hamas to release hostages. Hamas called it "collective punishment." Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. are trying to salvage a ceasefire deal, but Israel and Hamas remain far apart on key issues. Reuters 

Yemen's Houthis vow military actions as soon as Gaza aid four-day deadline ends. Yemen’s Houthis on Monday announced plans to take military actions as soon as a four-day deadline for lifting a siege of vital supplies into Gaza ends. On Friday, the leader of the group said that the Houthis would relaunch its naval operations against Israel if the state did not cease the blockage of aid into the Palestinian enclave within four days. Reuters Al Jazeera 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, U.S. in talks about potential Trump-Xi summit for June.  Sources familiar with the situation say that China and the U.S. have been in talks concerning a potential “birthday summit” in June between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, signaling a willingness to ease tensions amid escalating trade disputes. Both leaders, who share June birthdays, have expressed interest in a summit since Trump’s election victory in November, and the talks signal a willingness to improve relations despite ongoing economic friction. These discussions, still in early stages, come as the Trump administration piles on tariffs and trade restrictions against Beijing, aiming to build leverage in negotiations. China, facing economic struggles such as deflation and weaker-than-expected exports, is eager to negotiate in order to slow down further tariff hikes. However, Beijing remains cautious about Xi traveling to Washington, fearing it could make him appear weak, and has instead expressed a preference for Trump to visit China instead. Trump’s advisers believe the U.S. has the upper hand in negotiations due to the country’s strong economy, and the administration is not in a hurry to strike a deal. At the same time, Trump has maintained a personal rapport with Xi, believing that their relationship can act as a buffer against trade disputes. Behind the scenes, China has been working to engage with the Trump team, including dispatching delegations to Washington and considering an offer to increase purchases of American goods. Wall Street Journal

Ex-Philippine President Duterte arrested in Manila after ICC issues arrest warrant. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila on Tuesday after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity for his war on drugs, which human rights groups claim led to the “widespread and systematic,” extrajudicial killings of tens of thousands of Filipinos. 79-year-old Duterte was taken into custody at Manila’s airport, with Philippine authorities preparing to surrender him to The Hague, though his lawyers are fighting the arrest. The ICC warrant accuses Duterte of overseeing brutal killings during his time as mayor of Davao and president of the Philippines. Despite Manila withdrawing from the ICC under Duterte’s leadership, the court maintains jurisdiction over crimes committed while the country was still a member. The former leader, who remains hugely influential, had long seemed untouchable despite international condemnation. Duterte’s devastating drug war, launched in 2016, targeted suspected drug dealers and users, with police, hitmen, and vigilantes carrying out mass executions, often targeting poor urban Filipinos and even minors. Official figures report 6,252 deaths, but rights groups estimate around 30,000 were killed. Many families have sought justice for years, and activists view Duterte’s arrest as a major step toward accountability. Duterte, who once boasted about ordering killings, remains defiant, calling the ICC illegitimate and vowing to resist foreign intervention. The arrest also signals a shift in Philippine politics, as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.—once an ally of Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte—has distanced himself from the former leader. New York Times Bloomberg BBC Reuters CNN Deutsche Welle 

South Korea’s acting president says Trump's 'America First' policies targeting Seoul. South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok warned on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies are now targeting South Korea, as the White House prepares to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners starting April 2. Discussions between the two countries have begun regarding tariffs, energy cooperation, and shipbuilding, but Trump has threatened “all-out pressure” on South Korea. Choi has instructed authorities to actively engage with the Trump administration to prevent misunderstandings and seek a mutually beneficial trade agreement. He emphasized that South Korea would act in its national interest with a “cool head and flexibility” while pursuing a ‘win-win’ solution. Choi also addressed growing public concerns over potential unrest ahead of an important Constitutional Court ruling on whether to reinstate or remove impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. With Yoon’s supporters and opponents holding rallies, authorities are preparing for worst-case scenarios, warning that any violent protests will be dealt with sternly. Reuters 

Japanese trade minister falls short of securing tariff exemption assurance from U.S. Japan's trade minister, Yoji Muto, has requested that the U.S. exempt Japan from new tariffs, including a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports set to take effect on March 12, but did not receive any assurances. Following recent meetings with top U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Muto stated that both sides agreed to continue discussions at the working level. To persuade President Donald Trump to grant Tokyo an exemption, Japanese officials are emphasizing the country’s role as a key economic partner that has heavily invested in the U.S. and created millions of jobs. However, despite Washington acknowledging Japanese companies' contributions, no commitments were made regarding tariff relief. Muto also discussed Japan increasing purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), a gas pipeline project in Alaska, and Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel. Reuters 

Trump forces India’s hand on tariffs. President Donald Trump is pressuring India to lower its high tariffs, threatening reciprocal measures if New Delhi does not comply. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently held talks in Washington on a bilateral trade deal, with Trump claiming India agreed to significant tariff cuts. India has some of the highest tariffs globally, especially on agricultural goods, where tariffs range from 30% to 60%. Reducing them is politically sensitive due to India’s large farming sector. The U.S. trade deficit with India was $45 billion in 2024. Trump’s ultimatum has pushed India to relaunch free trade talks with the UK and EU. India also agreed to buy more U.S. oil and gas and signed a trade deal covering industrial goods and agricultural products. However, Indian analysts warn that opening agriculture and government procurement to U.S. companies could face domestic resistance, making negotiations difficult. A failure could trigger U.S. retaliatory tariffs by April. Financial Times

Dalai Lama tells followers to spurn any Beijing-chosen successor, promises reincarnation outside of China. In his new book, the Dalai Lama asserts that his reincarnation will take place outside China, urging Tibetans to reject any successor chosen by Beijing. This statement sets the stage for a major religious and political showdown between Tibet’s 89-year-old, exiled spiritual leader and China’s atheist Communist Party, which insists it has the authority to select his successor. Reincarnation has historically determined Tibet’s spiritual leadership, and the selection of the next Dalai Lama will have profound religious, geopolitical, and cultural implications. The Buddhist monk, who galvanized global support for Tibet, has lived in exile in India since 1959 after fleeing a failed uprising against China’s control. In 2011, he officially separated political leadership from religious leadership, transferring political power to Tibet’s government-in-exile. However, his presence remains critical to the legitimacy of the Tibetan movement. Despite repeated diplomatic efforts, talks with Beijing have failed to yield results, and since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, China has intensified its efforts to assimilate Tibetans. These include restricting Tibetan language education, forcing children into Chinese-language boarding schools, and smothering the flow of information. Meanwhile, U.S. foreign policy shifts under the Trump administration have cut funding for the Tibetan government-in-exile, though Washington continues to voice support for Tibetans’ rights. Wall Street Journal Reuters The Guardian Al Jazeera 

Tibetans, police tussle outside Chinese Embassy in India on 66th anniversary of uprising against China. Tibetan protesters scuffled with police outside the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi on March 10 as they marked the 66th anniversary of the 1959 Tibetan uprising, which was put down by Chinese forces. Police prevented the demonstrators from entering the embassy and briefly detained some after physical confrontations. Meanwhile, hundreds of Tibetans marched in Dharamshala, the headquarters of the exiled Tibetan government, and a hundred Tibetan women held a separate protest near Parliament in New Delhi. The protesters waved Tibetan flags and chanted anti-China slogans, and monks, activists, and schoolchildren joined the demonstrations. Penpa Tsering, president of the exiled Tibetan government, accused Beijing of attempting to eliminate Tibetan identity, calling this period the “darkest and most critical” in Tibet’s history. The Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader, denies China’s accusations that he is a separatist, instead advocating for Tibetan autonomy and cultural preservation. While China claims the Himalayan region has been part of its territory for centuries, Tibetans argue they were virtually independent until Beijing’s occupation in 1950. Associated Press

Separatist group fires upon passenger train in Pakistan carrying hundreds. Separatist militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) fired on the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan, Pakistan, on March 11, injuring the train driver. The train, carrying about 400 passengers, was traveling from Quetta to Peshawar when it was attacked in the Mushqaf area of Bolan district. The BLA claimed to have taken hostages, including security forces, though officials have not confirmed this. Security forces have arrived at the site, and the provincial government has imposed emergency measures. The BLA has long demanded greater control over Balochistan’s mineral wealth. Reuters 

Australian police say plot to attack synagogue invented by organised crime. Australian authorities on Monday said that an explosives-filled trailer discovered in January near Sydney, initially believed to be part of an antisemitic terrorism plot, was actually a hoax staged by criminals for personal gain. Investigators revealed that the trailer was never meant to detonate, and that criminals behind the scheme planned to tip off authorities to leverage the situation for their own benefit. This revelation comes after a series of antisemitic crimes in Sydney and Melbourne, including a synagogue firebombing and acts of vandalism. Law enforcement acknowledges that antisemitism has risen in Australia, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel. Nearly 200 people have been charged in New South Wales since October 2023 for antisemitic-related crimes. Associated Press Reuters  

AFRICA

Uganda deploys special forces in South Sudan capital as tensions mount. Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan’s capital, Juba, amid rising tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. The situation, which raises fears of a return to civil war, escalated recently after Kiir’s government arrested ministers and military officials allied with Machar, jeopardizing the 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year conflict. That war killed nearly 400,000 people. Uganda’s military chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, confirmed the deployment on Tuesday, stating that any move against Kiir would be considered a declaration of war against Uganda. This is Uganda’s third military intervention in South Sudan, following previous deployments in 2013 and 2016. Uganda fears that renewed conflict could lead to a refugee crisis and regional instability. However, it remains unclear whether Kiir’s government requested the deployment or how long Ugandan soldiers will remain. Reuters 

Allies of Congolese ex-president Kabila questioned by military prosecutor as internal strain rises. Officials from former President Joseph Kabila’s party in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) appeared before a military prosecutor on Monday, amid escalating political tensions over the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel advances in the east. The exact reason for their questioning was unclear, but it was linked to comments made by Aubin Minaku last month, suggesting party members should be "ready for anything" in support of Kabila. At the time, Minaku, the vice president of the party and ex-president of the National Assembly, said “the time for silence, for clandestine actions is over, now is the time for open actions." No charges were filed against the officials, who included Minaku, former Interior Minister Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, and party executive Ferdinand Kambare. President Felix Tshisekedi has accused Kabila of sponsoring M23 rebels, while Kabila has engaged with opposition and civil society groups to discuss Congo’s political future. The conflict with M23 rebels is tied to historical tensions from Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and competition for Congo’s vast mineral wealth. Rwanda denies arming M23, claiming its forces act in self-defense against the Congolese military and hostile militias. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Markets Pare Losses After Trump Rattled Investors. Global markets steadied on Tuesday after the S&P 500’s worst day of the year, driven by fears over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. European stocks rose as increased defense spending offset earlier losses, while Asian markets recovered slightly after falling over 1%. Technology stocks remained volatile, with Tesla rebounding after Trump expressed confidence in Elon Musk. Airline stocks fell sharply after Delta cut its profit forecast, citing weaker consumer demand. Analysts warned that Trump’s commitment to tariffs, despite inflation risks, could lead to a recession, with JPMorgan raising the odds to 40%. Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for economic issues. Asian automakers, particularly Toyota and Hyundai, remain vulnerable to Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on foreign cars. Chinese stocks, however, are rising, helped by government growth targets and business-friendly policies. Markets remain cautious as Trump’s unpredictable economic approach fuels uncertainty. Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters New York Times

As the stock market loses $4 trillion, Wall Street fears that Trump will wreck the soft landing. President Donald Trump and his advisers have signaled they are open to a hard economic landing, arguing that the U.S. economy may need a “detox” after years of growth fueled by federal spending. Trump suggested tariffs could rise further and downplayed market losses, saying building a strong country matters more. Trump’s tariffs have spooked investors, with fears of an economic downturn driving a stock market sell-off that has wiped out $4 trillion from the S&P 500’s peak last month, when Wall Street was cheering much of Trump's agenda. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned tariffs could raise prices, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the economy may need a reset. Trump’s stance marks a shift from earlier efforts to avoid a recession, with some advisers suggesting slowing growth could pressure Trump into more aggressive policies. Goldman Sachs raised recession odds to 20%, while analysts warn that rising tariffs and trade uncertainty could undermine private-sector investment and consumer confidence. Wall Street Journal Reuters

U.S. recession warnings are blaring. U.S. stocks suffered their worst day this year on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 3.8% and the S&P 500 falling 2.7%, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023. The selloff wiped out over $1 trillion in market value, led by a 15% plunge in Tesla and sharp declines in tech stocks and banks. Concerns over an economic slowdown intensified after President Donald Trump declined to rule out a recession and defended tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Investors fear prolonged volatility as strategists increase recession odds and warn of more downside. BloombergBFinancial Times The Economist

Nasdaq 100 Sheds $1.1 Trillion in Value as Tech Meltdown Spreads. Tech stocks had their worst day since 2022, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 3.8% and the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index falling 5.4%, wiping out over $1 trillion in value. Tesla fell 15%, bringing its 2025 losses to 45%, while Nvidia dropped 5.1%, erasing over $1 trillion in two months. The selloff followed President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warnings about economic slowdown and a "detox period" from public spending. Investors are shifting from tech to defensive sectors as recession fears grow. As markets recalibrate, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple have lost double digits this year. “Sell your winners, embrace the bear case and duck and cover,” said Michael Bailey, director of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman. Bloomberg

Musk blames X outage on cyberattack originating in Ukraine. Social media platform X experienced outages on Monday, peaking at 39,021 affected users. Elon Musk blamed a large-scale cyberattack, suggesting a country or coordinated group was involved. He later claimed the attack came from Ukraine-based IP addresses, but industry sources traced most rogue traffic to the U.S., Vietnam, and Brazil. Cybersecurity experts expressed skepticism, noting small groups often conduct denial of service attacks. Musk, an adviser to President Donald Trump, said Ukraine's front line would collapse without his Starlink service but vowed not to cut it off. Reuters

Mixed reviews greet release of ‘Manus,’ a Chinese-developed autonomous AI agent. A Chinese AI startup called Monica caught the world’s attention by releasing Manus, “the world’s first fully autonomous AI agent.”  Unlike conventional chatbots such as ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini, Manus reportedly self-initiates – it sets objectives, assesses new information, and adjusts its operations on the fly.  An example of its capabilities can be seen in its handling of candidate resumes – in addition to ranking each candidate, the agent reads individual resumes, identifies pertinent skills, and presents an “optimized hiring decision” in a Manus-generated Excel spreadsheet.  According to Forbes, the result is an output produced with “speed and precision that even the most seasoned professionals struggle to match.”  Currently, the agent is being offered for “invitation-only private testing.” Manus is not an entirely new AI product – the agent uses existing and fine-tuned AI models — including Anthropic’s Claude and Alibaba’s Qwen — to draft reports and analyze data. One of its developers, Yichao “Peak” Ji, pointed to Manus’ performance on the GAIA benchmark, demonstrating its superiority over other deep research AI tools. Ji noted, "[Manus] isn’t just another chatbot or workflow. It’s a completely autonomous agent that bridges the gap between conception and execution.  We see it as the next paradigm of human-machine collaboration.” However, not all testers have been swayed by the initial hype over Manus. Some users have posted on X that Manus makes mistakes on factual questions and often misses easily discoverable online information. TechCrunch itself tested Manus and acknowledged that the developers of the agent are fixing issues as they are reported by users.  However, even allowing for its “very early access” status, TechCrunch concludes that in its present state, “Manus appears to be a case of hype running ahead of technological innovation.”  Forbes   TechCrunch Axios ChinaTalk Maginative South China Morning Post

Recent Chinese on-orbit refueling test prompts concerns from U.S. Space Force. A U.S. Space Force official described China’s on-orbit testing of refueling operations to extend a spacecraft’s life as “potentially game-changing.” China’s Shijian-25 satellite reportedly conducted the space refueling procedure in January. Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch, the Space Force deputy chief of space operations for intelligence, told an audience at London’s Chatham House that China’s first announcement of “a capability on orbit to do refueling and servicing and that’s a game-changing technology.” According to Lerch, China is “actively pursuing capabilities” to extend space operations out to 22,400 miles. In 2019, Northrop Grumman was the first to refuel satellites, extending their operational lives by five years.  Lerch said there are “great risks right now because of the unprecedented growth [in China] as well as the unmanaged competition.”   He added that Chinese research papers available online “talk extensively about their first super stealth capabilities in space.” Consequently, Lerch said, “that’s something we have to be concerned about – what type of capabilities are going to be on orbit in the not too distant future?”South China Morning Post

Fake Binance crypto website used to lure purchasers of Trump coins. Individuals interested in purchasing President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency through the Binance platform are targeted by hackers spreading a remote access tool (RAT) through bogus emails.  Purportedly originating from Binance, the emails offer opportunities to buy TRUMP coins by installing Binance software, completing a platform account registration, and depositing funds.   Cofense cybersecurity researchers have not identified the hackers behind the campaign, but the company says if targeted individuals complete the process recommended in the emails, a malware version of a RAT tool, ConnectWise, will be installed.  The threat actors monitoring the downloads “can connect to infected computers in under 2 minutes.”  Abuses of the ConnectWise tool have been discovered in multiple campaigns, including spoofs of “LinkedIn…Virtu, and even the U.S. Social Security Administration.”  Cofense notes that because ConnectWise is a legitimate tool “there are a large number of files that it uses which cannot simply be blocked because legitimate installations of ConnectWise RAT also use them.”  Hackers have taken pains to ensure that the fake website that greets would-be purchasers appears to be authentic by using genuine Binance and TRUMP coin website images.  The RecordCybernews

China aims for a surge in key industries’ use of nuclear technology by 2026. China plans to expand the use of nuclear technology in multiple industries to generate annual economic output of $55.25 billion by 2026.  China’s representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Li Song, said that Beijing’s goal represents a large increase over the next two years, since the goal in 2023 was $33 billion.  Primary sectors of interest include medical treatment, agriculture, food processing, and material production.  Li told an IAEA meeting in Vienna that China is seeking to increase its cooperation with the agency in atomic energy for the benefit of the Global South. China’s recent “two sessions” legislative gathering also set out goals for nuclear technology. Han Yongjiang, an economist with the China National Nuclear Corporation, told a CPPCC session that China is rapidly advancing its nuclear technology sector, but “it still lags behind developed countries in terms of industrial scale. Further improvements are needed in industrial policies and independent innovation capabilities.”  China leads the world in operational nuclear power units capacity, with 102 nuclear power units in service or under construction for a total installed capacity of 113 million kilowatts. Nuclear power has added importance for China given that the country is the world’s largest coal consumer and the largest aggregate emitter of greenhouse gases. China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. South China Morning Post

China-led global team reports design of next-generation AI ‘light chip’.  An international team led by China’s Peking University said that its design of a new 100 GHz chip using light rather than electricity to synchronize processors could be the key to next-generation high-speed AI computing, communications, and remote sensing.  The research team, which included scientists from Peking University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Aerospace Information Research Institute, and the University of California, Santa Barbara, said their all-optical design opens the door to accelerated, increased computing efficiency by redefining how clock signals are generated for chips.  The team published its findings in the Nature Electronics journal last week.  Chang Lin, the lead author and an assistant professor at Peking University, said light was selected as the medium for transmitting and processing information to improve computing speed.  He explained that “by building a ring that looks like a racecourse on the chip, light can continuously ‘run’ at the speed of light. The time of each lap is then used as the standard of the on-chip clock.”  He added, "because a lap would take a few billionths of a second, the clock can regulate time at an ultra-high speed.”  Chang said, "while existing GPUs and CPUs run at around 2 to 3 GHz, our team has achieved a clock speed of more than 100 GHz. This means that we can calculate more in a shorter time, providing stronger computing power for the development of artificial intelligence.” South China Morning Post

Limited options exist as Europe discusses possible replacement for Starlink in Ukraine. The Trump administration’s decision to pause aid has led to concerns that Elon Musk’s Starlink service could come under pressure to follow suit and cut off access by Ukraine to the communications lifeline. It has also triggered European discussions about possible alternatives to Starlink to support Ukraine’s military operations.  According to Bloomberg, European telecommunications executives have begun to factor in Musk’s reputation in planning possible business ties with Starlink.  A handful of European companies have limited partnerships with Starlink to support remote cell site-network connections and provide emergency broadband connectivity.  Eutelsat comes to mind when considering replacements for Starlink in Ukraine, and intense talks already are underway with the European Union about that possibility. Eutelsat told Bloomberg that it would only need a couple of months to get 40,000 terminals to Ukraine.  Bloomberg

Widely used Chinese-made microchip discovered to have ‘undocumented commands’.  A microchip manufactured by a Chinese firm has been found to contain undocumented vendor-specific commands with potential misuse. The ESP32 chip is found in over a billion devices worldwide, including mobile phones, computers, and medical equipment.  Researchers at a Spanish firm, Tarlogic Security, discovered vulnerabilities that could be used to access device memory and manipulate Bluetooth functions.  The research team said the term, backdoor, is not accurate to describe the undocumented commands, preferring to describe them as "hidden features" that allow operations such as reading and modifying the ESP32 memory controller.  Researchers say these commands could facilitate supply chain attacks or conceal backdoors in the chipset.  The Chinese maker of the ESP32 chip, Espressif, has not documented these commands, and researchers believe their presence suggests an oversight rather than an intentional inclusion.  Hackers could manipulate the commands to conduct impersonation attacks, bypass security audits, or permanently modify device behavior.  Researchers say this vulnerability is relevant because of the ESP32’s use in low-cost internet-of-things devices and serves as a reminder of the importance of rigorous firmware security. TechSpot Forbes BleepingComputer

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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