Open Source Report for Tuesday, February 25, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Tuesday, February 25, 2025

U.S. Refuses to Blame Russia for Ukraine War in Extraordinary Break with Allies

European leaders in Kyiv mark three years of war, but top U.S. officials stay away

U.S. officials break with Musk’s directive, says responding to controversial email Is voluntary

U.S. targets Iran's shadow oil fleet with sanctions

Former NSA chief warns adversaries outdistancing U.S. in cyber capabilities

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Germany’s Election Winner Vows ‘Real Independence’ From U.S. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its standard-bearer Friedrich Merz came out on top in Sunday’s German election.  Merz promptly announced that his “absolute priority” would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we can achieve real independence from the U.S.” While many foreign leaders have chosen to flatter Donald Trump, Merz has taken the opposite tack, blasting the White House for its “shocking” accommodation to Russia, for calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” responsible for the war, and for “outrageous” statements supporting Germany’s far-right AfD party.  Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with Liana Fix, Senior Europe Fellow at The Council on Foreign Relations, about how Germany and Europe can wean themselves from U.S. political and military support.  The Cipher Brief 

Opinion: Transparency is missing in Musk’s DOGE operation. Walter Pincus argues that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) lacks transparency and legal authority, despite Musk’s claims. Musk’s recent email demanding federal employees list weekly accomplishments was widely rejected by agency heads, exposing its lack of coordination. Musk, designated only as a special advisor to President Donald Trump, has no formal power, yet he threatened job losses for noncompliance. Pincus highlights DOGE’s misleading claims, including exaggerations about Social Security fraud and a falsely attributed property sale. Trump and Musk continue amplifying debunked figures, raising concerns about their motives. Pincus suggests DOGE itself wields unchecked influence within government. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says he may meet with Zelensky to sign mineral deal this week or next. U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week or next to sign a minerals deal. The agreement, nearing completion, would grant the U.S. a stake in Ukraine’s natural resource revenues. Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the final stage of negotiations. A draft agreement reviewed by Bloomberg and The New York Times shows Ukraine has secured better terms than earlier proposals, with the U.S. dropping its demand for Kyiv to commit $500 billion in future revenues. However, Ukraine’s push for security guarantees remains unfulfilled. Trump's administration frames the deal as part of its effort to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. While U.S. officials argue economic ties will deter future aggression, Zelensky insists military aid must be included. The agreement’s terms could still evolve, with more negotiations expected after the signing. NV Bloomberg New York Times

EU offers its own ‘win-win’ deal with Ukraine on critical minerals. The European Union proposed its own deal with Ukraine on "critical materials," offering what EU officials described as a “win-win” partnership, in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for compensation. European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stephane Sejourne, visiting Kyiv with Ursula von der Leyen on Monday, noted that Ukraine could supply 21 of the 30 critical materials Europe needs, including manganese, titanium, graphite, and lithium. “The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that’s not mutually beneficial,” he said. Meanwhile, Trump insisted the U.S. was “very close” to securing its deal, saying, “I want them to give us something for all of the money that we put up.” The competing proposals reflect broader geopolitical tensions as Ukraine navigates economic partnerships amid Russia’s ongoing war. Barron’s Politico EU

Putin Dangles Rare Earths Deals for U.S. in Russia and Kremlin-Occupied Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin invited U.S. companies to develop Russia’s vast rare earth mineral deposits, including those in Russian-occupied Ukraine. In a state TV interview, he emphasized that Russia’s reserves far exceed Ukraine’s and highlighted opportunities for American firms in Siberian aluminum production and energy projects. Putin specifically mentioned that rare earth extraction in parts of Ukraine seized by Russia could be lucrative, signaling Moscow’s intent to integrate these resources into its economy. He framed the offer as a pragmatic business opportunity. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed discussions with Russia on economic development, aligning with his broader strategy to replace confrontation with deal-making. He suggested that American businesses could profit from access to these resources, reinforcing his view that economic partnerships should take precedence over policies imposing tough sanctions on Russia for its war on Ukraine. New York Times Wall Street Journal

Trump refuses to label Putin a dictator. During a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump declined to call Russian President Vladimir Putin a dictator, saying he doesn’t use such terms “lightly.” This contrasts with his Feb. 19 post on Truth Social, where he labeled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” over postponed elections, disregarding Ukraine’s martial law restrictions and echoing Russian propaganda. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky, Trump have 'good' conversation during G7 meeting. President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump during the Group of Seven (G7) online meeting on Monday. "As for Donald Trump... We have just had a conversation. It was a very good conversation within the framework of the G7 meeting led by Canada," Zelensky said, thanking Ottawa for organizing the event. The Ukrainian president expressed hope that the U.S. would maintain its support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need to preserve unity between Washington and European allies. Kyiv Independent

Reclaiming occupied territories possible but 'not easy' for Ukraine, Trump says. U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that Ukraine might be able to reclaim some Russian-occupied territories but acknowledged “that’s not an easy thing to do.” Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House, he suggested the issue is part of ongoing negotiations that have recently begun. Kyiv Independent

U.S. Refuses to Blame Russia for Ukraine War in Extraordinary Break with Allies. The United Nations and Group of Seven nations struggled to maintain a unified stance on Russia’s war on Ukraine as the Trump administration aligned with Moscow. In the UN General Assembly, the U.S. and Russia both voted against a European-backed resolution explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops. A separate U.S. resolution, which initially avoided blaming Russia, was amended to include accountability language, prompting the U.S. to abstain from its own proposal. At the UN Security Council, the U.S. and Russia, for the first time, backed the same resolution calling for a “swift end” to the war without assigning blame. Meanwhile, G7 leaders struggled to draft a joint statement as the U.S. opposed language condemning Russia and resisted new energy sanctions. The divide underscores President Donald Trump’s push for direct negotiations with President Vladimir Putin while sidelining Ukraine and Europe, reshaping alliances in the war’s fourth year. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press New York Times Washington Post Financial Times  Wall Street Journal Reuters

Macron contradicts Trump on Ukraine as Europe-U.S. divide deepens. During their Monday meeting at the White House, French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained a friendly tone while exposing deep divisions over Ukraine. Macron declared, “The aggressor is Russia,” while Trump refused to call Vladimir Putin a dictator, instead emphasizing his push for a swift ceasefire. “We want peace, and we want it fast,” Trump said, sidestepping commitments to Ukrainian security. Macron pushed back: “We don’t want an agreement that is weak.” Tensions flared when Trump falsely claimed Europe had only loaned money to Ukraine. Macron, placing a hand on Trump’s arm, corrected him: “No, in fact, we paid. We provided real money.” The leaders did agree on a European peacekeeping force after a ceasefire, though Macron dismissed Putin’s credibility, recalling, “I spent seven hours with him before the invasion. He denied everything.” Trump also promoted his minerals deal with Ukraine as a way to recoup U.S. military aid, while Macron insisted any peace must be “checked and verified.” Reuters New York Times Time The Times CNN Associated Press Politico EU

ANALYSIS–Facing Trump’s Hostility, Ukraine Weighs Its Options. But They Are Few. President Donald Trump’s adversarial stance toward Ukraine has forced Kyiv to reconsider its strategic options as U.S. support wanes. In the past two weeks, Trump has initiated direct peace talks with Russia, sidelined Ukraine, falsely blamed Kyiv for the war and called President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator. Ukraine is seeking alternatives, pivoting toward Europe while leveraging economic deals to maintain ties with Washington. A proposed minerals deal remains contentious, with Trump demanding onerous terms – billions of dollars in resources as "payback" for past aid – with no security guarantees or promises of further military aid. Ukraine aims to hold out on the battlefield but might be able to do so for only a matter of months if U.S. aid dries up. Ukraine is boosting domestic arms production, particularly of attack drones, but challenges persist, including troop shortages. Meanwhile, European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Keir Starmer, are discussing peacekeeping troops and a new $21 billion financial package. Ukraine hopes Trump’s need to claim a diplomatic victory will keep it relevant in negotiations. For now, Kyiv’s survival strategy hinges on European backing, internal resilience, and the possibility of Trump unexpectedly reversing course if Russia stalls talks. New York Times

EU eyes €200 billion secret weapon as Trump dominates Ukraine peace talks. With the U.S. and Russia sidelining the EU in Ukraine peace talks, European leaders are debating whether to seize €200 billion in frozen Russian assets to regain influence. Held mainly in Brussels-based Euroclear, the funds accrue interest, while the U.S. holds only $5 billion. Baltic and Nordic states, alongside Poland and Czechia, support immediately transferring the money to Ukraine, arguing it could replace potential lost U.S. aid. However, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warn that confiscating the funds could deter investors and weaken Europe’s negotiation leverage. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested using only the interest rather than seizing the assets, emphasizing their value as a bargaining chip. Estonia acknowledges that withholding the funds strengthens Europe’s hand, ensuring Russia has an incentive to negotiate. With G7 finance ministers meeting this week, the debate over leveraging or unlocking the assets remains unresolved. Politico EU

Trump says Putin will accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept the deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine if a ceasefire deal is reached. “He will accept that. I have asked him that question,” Trump stated at the White House alongside French President Emmanuel Macron. He added, “If we do this deal, he’s not looking for more war.” Macron, who has discussed the idea with the U.K., said European forces would not be on the front lines but would ensure that any agreement is upheld. While Trump remained ambiguous, Macron called the talks a “turning point,” suggesting some form of American support. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s upcoming visit on Thursday will test whether this diplomatic push yields concrete commitments. Politico EU The Economist

Putin says Europe is needed in Ukraine talks but suggests a deal is still distant. In an interview with Russian state TV at his residence outside Moscow on Monday, President Vladimir Putin suggested that a Ukraine peace deal remains distant, emphasizing the need first to build trust between Russia and the U.S. He said recent talks in Riyadh with American officials were preliminary, adding, “We only agreed that we would move toward this.” He acknowledged that European countries would eventually be needed in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Putin also spoke approvingly about cutting U.S. and Russian defense spending in half, though no concrete steps were discussed. He praised President Donald Trump’s pragmatic approach to Ukraine, contrasting it with European leaders he sees as constrained by prior commitments. However, he gave no indication that Russia was ready to make concessions, suggesting that a final settlement could take significant time to materialize. Reuters

Without U.S. Aid, Ukraine Would Lose Some of Its Most Sophisticated Weapons. Ukraine could sustain its current military effort until mid-2025 with existing U.S. aid, but without further supplies, Kyiv would face shortages in ammunition and irreplaceable high-end weaponry. Key systems at risk include Patriot air-defense batteries, ATACMS missiles for long-range strikes, and navigation systems essential for precision targeting—none of which Europe can replace in the short term. The U.S. has supplied nearly $70 billion in military aid, more than all other allies combined. While Ukraine has ramped up its own production, producing millions of drones and increasing munitions output, its domestic industry and European allies would struggle to cover the gap left by lost U.S. supplies. President Donald Trump’s hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Republican resistance to further aid have raised the possibility of U.S. withdrawal. European leaders are scrambling to adjust, but analysts doubt their ability to fully compensate, particularly in air defense and long-range strike capabilities. Wall Street Journal

The staggering cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine, by the numbers. Russia’s war on Ukraine has resulted in at least 153,000 deaths, with 95,000 Russian soldiers and 46,000 Ukrainian troops among them. Over 10.6 million Ukrainians have been displaced, and 2 million homes—about 10% of Ukraine’s housing stock—have been destroyed. Russia now controls approximately 20% of Ukraine’s territory. The U.S. has spent $65.9 billion on military aid, with total Ukraine-related U.S. spending reaching $174.2 billion. European aid has surpassed Washington’s in financial and humanitarian support, with total global assistance reaching $279 billion. Washington Post

Ukraine needs $524 billion to recover, rebuild after three years of war, World Bank says. The World Bank, United Nations, European Union, and Ukraine estimate the cost of rebuilding Ukraine at $524 billion, a 7% increase from last year’s $486 billion estimate. Damage to the energy sector has risen 70% due to Russian attacks, with housing, transport, and industry among the most affected sectors. Ukraine has allocated $7.37 billion for 2025 but faces a $10 billion funding gap. Direct damage now totals $176 billion. About 13% of housing stock is damaged, affecting 2.5 million households. U.S. President Donald Trump is pursuing separate negotiations to end the war, suggesting a deal could come within weeks. Reuters

Ukraine parliament affirms no elections during wartime in rebuff to Trump. Ukraine’s parliament passed a resolution on Tuesday affirming Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as president and stating elections cannot be held until after the war ends. The move rebuffs U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have questioned Zelenskyy’s authority due to the lack of elections. The resolution passed on the second attempt after an earlier failure. Zelenskyy, elected in 2019, remains in power under martial law, which prohibits elections. He has said he would step down for peace or NATO membership. Opposition parties agree elections are unfeasible due to displacement, ongoing fighting, and the risk of Russian interference. ABC News

Mike Waltz rejects the idea of Ukraine joining NATO amid peace talks. White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said that Ukraine’s NATO membership is “not back on the table,” despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent offer to resign in exchange for joining the alliance. Speaking Monday on Fox & Friends, Waltz emphasized that the U.S. would not commit troops under NATO’s Article 5 for Ukraine. Instead, he reiterated that France, the U.K., and other European nations should take the lead on Ukraine’s security guarantees, aligning with the Trump administration’s push for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense. Politico EU

Putin must be forced to make concessions, Starmer tells Kyiv summit. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told world leaders gathered in Kyiv on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin must be pressured “not just to talk, but to make concessions.” He called for tougher sanctions on Russian banks and oil companies, urging the G7 to “dial up economic pressure.” While acknowledging that Trump’s peace efforts created an opportunity, Starmer insisted Ukraine must be directly involved in negotiations and that any settlement must guarantee its sovereignty. He reaffirmed the UK’s willingness to deploy troops as part of a future peacekeeping force. Starmer will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday. The Times

Germany’s Merz offers hope for Ukraine amid the Trump nightmare. Friedrich Merz’s rise as Germany’s next chancellor offers Ukraine a crucial advocate amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting stance. Merz calls for European defense independence, proposing deeper security ties with France and the U.K. He takes a hard line on Russia and sees Trump’s approach as a threat to Europe. His likely coalition partners, including Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and the hawkish Greens, favor stronger military aid to Ukraine. “Americans are not just leaving Europe alone, but are working against Europe,” Green Party leader Robert Habeck said on Sunday, after the polls closed. “They are letting Ukraine down. I would say they are betraying it. This is imperialism at its worst.” With European Union leaders scrambling to sustain support for Kyiv, Merz’s leadership could be pivotal in ensuring Europe steps up. Politico EU

Europe must use Russian assets for Ukraine, Czech PM says. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala called for using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s military and urged Europe to relax fiscal rules to increase defense spending. On national television Monday, he said Czech defense spending must rise to 3% of GDP from 2% to reflect the new geopolitical reality. He noted President Donald Trump’s shift away from Europe, stressing the need for a stronger European Union capable of deterring Russia. Fiala also proposed reallocating €93 billion from post-COVID recovery funds for defense and infrastructure. Reuters

Finnish President to Trump: If Putin wins in Ukraine, the U.S. loses.Finnish President Alexander Stubb warned that a Russian victory in Ukraine would be a loss for the United States, emphasizing that the war concerns European security and American leadership. Speaking in Kyiv at a summit Monday marking three years since Russia’s invasion, he dismissed concerns over NATO’s strength but urged Europe to increase defense spending. Stubb outlined a phased peace plan, starting with bolstering Ukraine’s position, followed by a ceasefire with security guarantees, and ending with a negotiated settlement. He stressed that Ukraine’s European Union and NATO membership must remain non-negotiable and suggested that European military support would focus on air and naval capabilities. Reuters

European leaders in Kyiv mark three years of war, but top U.S. officials stay away. Western leaders gathered in Kyiv to mark three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, pledging continued support amid growing uncertainty over U.S. policy under President Donald Trump. The U.S. did not send a senior representative, signaling a shift as Trump moves toward direct negotiations with Russia. Trump has embraced parts of the Kremlin’s narrative, called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator,” and suggested Ukraine may not regain occupied land. Alarmed by Washington’s shift, European leaders are increasing military aid, with Spain pledging over $1 billion and the European Union considering a $20 billion package. The war’s fourth year begins with high-stakes diplomacy and growing divides between the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine. Reuters Associated Press Washington Post 

Russia will not return to the G7, German finance minister says. German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to readmit Russia to the G7 on Monday, stating that it lacked unanimous support. He reaffirmed the G7’s condemnation of Russia’s war against Ukraine, especially on its third anniversary. Kukies, attending the G20 meeting in South Africa, noted ongoing discussions on using $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction. He also warned against a U.S.-European Union trade war but expressed optimism about negotiations. Reuters

Democratic and Republican lawmakers propose resolution backing Ukraine. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a resolution affirming support for Ukraine amid concerns over President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russia that exclude Kyiv. Led by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis, the resolution expresses solidarity with Ukraine, acknowledges its war losses, and insists Kyiv must be involved in any ceasefire talks. It reaffirms U.S. backing for Ukraine’s sovereignty and Euro-Atlantic integration but does not explicitly endorse NATO membership. The measure has at least 12 backers, including senior Republicans Mitch McConnell and Roger Wicker, and Democratic leaders like Dick Durbin. Reuters

Analysis: Fair or Not, Zelensky Is Angering Trump. Is His Style Hurting Ukraine? President Volodymyr Zelensky’s firm stance against President Donald Trump’s narrative has strained U.S.-Ukraine relations. Trump, angered by Zelensky’s public corrections of his claims—such as blaming Ukraine for the war—has dismissed him as unimportant to negotiations. Zelensky has refused to sign U.S. minerals deal without security guarantees and insists Ukraine must be involved in any peace talks, a position widely supported in Ukraine but one that has irritated Trump. European leaders have urged Zelensky to be more diplomatic, but he remains defiant, emphasizing that Ukraine’s military resistance has kept the country independent. Critics argue his confrontational style risks jeopardizing U.S. aid, which is crucial as Ukraine faces battlefield challenges. However, Ukraine has historically secured U.S. support through strategic deals rather than personal rapport. With high-stakes diplomacy unfolding, some believe Trump’s transactional nature may ultimately lead him to accept Ukraine’s role in negotiations despite current tensions. New York Times

Zelensky’s toughest battle begins. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces his most challenging period three years into Russia's full-scale invasion. The war effort has stalled, and U.S. President Donald Trump is pursuing a peace deal with Russia that marginalizes Kyiv. Tensions escalated when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed Ukraine cede 50% of its critical mineral rights to offset $500 billion in military aid—a proposal Zelensky rejected without assurances of continued support. Trump's disparaging remarks about Zelensky have inadvertently bolstered domestic support for the Ukrainian leader, as citizens perceive external pressures as attempts to force an unfavorable peace settlement. Zelensky's current challenge is maintaining global engagement and support for Ukraine while navigating complex international dynamics. Financial Times

EU imports of Russian fossil fuels exceeded aid to Ukraine in the third year of the Russian invasion. Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy, the European Union spent €21.9 billion on Russian fossil fuels in the third year of the war—exceeding the €18.7 billion it provided in aid to Ukraine. The findings are from a new report published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air on Monday. Russian natural gas imports rose 9%, while fossil fuel imports declined only 1%. Loopholes and weak sanctions have allowed Russia to earn €825 billion from fossil fuels since the war began. Stronger sanctions could cut Moscow’s revenues by €51 billion annually. China, India, and Turkey account for 74% of Russia’s fossil fuel exports. Kyiv Independent

Russia's Ryazan oil refinery halts operations after drone strike, sources say. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery caused a fire and halted operations, affecting CDU-6, which processes 170,000 barrels per day (48% of the refinery’s capacity). The plant may partially resume operations soon, using CDU-4 and CDU-3, which together handle 145,000 bpd. The refinery, owned by Rosneft, had only recently restarted after an earlier drone attack in January. In 2024, Ryazan processed 13.1 million tons of crude, contributing nearly 5% of Russia’s refining throughput. Reuters

Russia detains teenager suspected of helping Ukraine target the Ryazan oil refinery with drones. Russian authorities detained a 17-year-old in Bashkortostan, accusing him of aiding Ukraine in targeting the Ryazan oil refinery with drones, RIA reported on Tuesday. The teenager allegedly gathered intelligence and painted graffiti for Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for money since autumn 2024. He reportedly admitted to scouting the refinery in January. The Ryazan refinery, 240 km south of Moscow, suspended operations after Ukraine's drone attack, part of Kyiv's broader strategy to disrupt Russia's wartime energy infrastructure. Reuters

Turkey offers to host possible Ukraine-Russia talks. Turkey has offered to host potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks following Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Ankara on Monday. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized Turkey’s willingness to support negotiations but stressed both sides must participate. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Lavrov insisted that Ukraine abandoning its NATO bid remains a non-negotiable condition for Russia. This comes after U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh excluded Kyiv, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described Turkey as a key security guarantor for Ukraine. Reuters

In One Woman’s Life, the Story of Ukraine’s War, 3 Years On. Olha Kurtmallaieva, 25, embodies Ukraine’s resilience amid war. In remission from cancer, she fights for the release of her husband, a Ukrainian marine captured in Mariupol in 2022. Trapped in Russian-occupied Berdiansk for six months, she lacked medical care as her cancer advanced to Stage 4. Now in Kyiv, she organizes protests for prisoners of war while undergoing chemotherapy. Despite uncertainty about her own and her husband’s futures, she remains determined to reunite and help him transition back to life, holding onto hope amid loss and hardship. New York Times

Three years in, Ukrainian fathers fear passing the war on to their sons. Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian fathers and sons face difficult choices about war and identity. Many boys who were children when the war began are now approaching adulthood, confronting the possibility of military service. Some fathers, like Yehor and Andrii, have encouraged their sons to contribute in other ways, from drone-building to playing music for wounded soldiers. Others, like Maksym, fear their sons will be drawn into the conflict. Despite differing perspectives, all are deeply concerned about passing the burden of war onto the next generation, hoping for peace before their children must fight. Washington Post

UK’s Johnson doesn’t believe Trump will abandon Ukraine. Speaking on the sidelines of a conference in Kyiv on Monday, ex-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson dismissed fears that President Donald Trump had abandoned Ukraine, arguing that Trump’s rhetoric stems from misinformation and political maneuvering. “He listens to a lot of garbage about Ukraine,” Johnson said, referring to figures influencing Trump’s views. He attributed Trump’s push for a minerals deal to domestic politics, saying, “He has to show the isolationists in Congress, Tucker Carlson, and all these guys that he has something in exchange for continued American support.” While acknowledging concerns over the deal’s scale, Johnson defended its premise. “Yes, it looks like a lot of money, but not a single penny will go to the investment fund of profit if you do not have a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine.” Johnson urged the UK and France to step up, stating, “We have to do a lot more. We signed the Budapest Memorandum.” NV

2 killed, 6 injured in Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast.Two people were killed and six injured in Russian aerial attacks on Sumy Oblast on Monday, with 169 explosions recorded. Strikes hit Velyka Pysarivka, Myropil, and Sumy, damaging homes and vehicles. Sumy Oblast, bordering Russia's Kursk region, has faced frequent shelling and drone attacks since August 2024. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Feb. 24. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, aiming to seize Kyiv and install a pro-Russian regime, but Ukraine has remained resilient and innovative. The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution recognizing Russia as the aggressor and reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty, while Russia and 16 other countries opposed it. Recent polls show growing Russian support for prolonging the war despite increasing economic hardships. Kremlin officials rejected any ceasefire that does not result in Ukraine's capitulation, reinforcing Russia’s unwillingness to compromise in future negotiations. The Kremlin continues to use Muslim religious and cultural institutions in Russia as platforms for military recruitment.

Battlefield update: Russian forces made incremental advances in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump revokes Biden-era order on rights abuses with arms supplied by U.S. Officials on Monday said that the Trump administration has rescinded a Biden-era regulation, the National Security Memorandum-20, that required allies using U.S.-made weapons to adhere to international humanitarian law and facilitate humanitarian aid. This order, known as NSM-20, particularly impacted policies during Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Biden's directive had aimed to balance support for Israel with humanitarian concerns but faced criticism from both Republicans and Democrats; the former condemned the measure for its “redundant bureaucratic requirements,” while the latter castigated it for being inadequately enforced. Critics argue that repealing this measure signals disregard for human rights and could lead to increased civilian casualties, damaging America's global reputation. Former State Department official Christopher Le Mon said the White House has effectively suggested to Washington’s partners that the Trump administration “simply doesn’t care how these governments use U.S. arms, no matter how immoral or illegal their conduct.” The GOP administration's move continues its broader rollback of human rights-focused policies. Washington Post Reuters Times of Israel 

Trump says tariffs on Canada, Mexico going forward in spite of border and fentanyl efforts. President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico are “going forward on time,” and scheduled to begin next month, as he aims to pressure both countries to enhance border security and reduce illegal immigration and drug trafficking. However, a U.S. official indicated uncertainty about the exact timing of these tariffs, particularly a 25% special levy linked directly to border concerns. Trump also announced broader reciprocal tariffs targeting multiple countries, set for April implementation, intended to create fairness in global trade and boost domestic manufacturing. He added that the U.S. has “been mistreated very badly by many countries, not just Canada and Mexico.” Economists warn these tariffs may raise consumer prices and disrupt supply chains, especially impacting sectors like automotive and energy. Canada strongly opposed Trump’s approach, suggesting reciprocal counter-tariffs as a possible response. Bloomberg Politico Associated Press Reuters 

Trump aid freeze disrupts anti-narcotics program at Mexican ports. President Donald Trump's foreign aid freeze has stalled a United Nations anti-narcotics program in Mexico, disrupting efforts to stop fentanyl precursor chemicals from reaching drug cartels. The initiative provided Mexico’s Navy with training and equipment at key ports, including Manzanillo, but expansion to Veracruz and Lázaro Cárdenas is now on hold. While some U.S. security funding has resumed, most remains frozen, including $50 million intended to combat fentanyl trafficking. Experts warn the freeze undermines U.S. efforts to curb overdoses. Trump’s designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations has fueled speculation about potential military action, though no legal basis currently exists .More than 450,000 Americans have died of synthetic opioid overdoses over the past decade, with millions more addicted Reuters

U.S. officials break with Musk’s directive, says responding to controversial email Is voluntary. Tensions appear to have emerged within the Trump administration after Elon Musk, heading the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, demanded that federal workers justify their weekly activities or face termination. Musk's email to millions of federal workers sparked confusion and resistance among employees and senior officials, many of whom instructed staff to ignore his demand due to security and jurisdictional concerns. The directive has not only caused divisions within Trump's cabinet, contrasting with his usual insistence on unified loyalty, but has also called into question the amount of authority Musk actually possesses within the GOP administration. Agencies such as the CIA and State Department quietly resisted the directive, worried about security, legality, and threats to classified information. The U.S. Office of Personnel Management clarified on Monday that Musk’s directive was voluntary, countering his original threat and urging employees not to disclose confidential, sensitive or classified information. Despite this, Trump and some senior aides praised the tech billionaire’s aggressive efforts to reform federal bureaucracy, referring to internal friction as a necessary cost. Musk took to social media on Monday evening to offer employees who did not respond to the email “another chance,” asserting that “failure to respond a second time will result in termination.” In a different post, he said that the “email request was utterly trivial, as the standard for passing the test was to type some words and press send!” Musk continued to blast the federal bureaucracy; “Yet so many failed even that inane test, urged on in some cases by their managers. Have you ever witnessed such INCOMPETENCE and CONTEMPT for how YOUR TAXES are being spent?” This internal dissent differs strikingly with Trump’s typical expectation of total alignment among aides. The controversy occurs just before Trump's first cabinet meeting of his second term, underscoring broader tensions within his administration. New York Times Reuters BBC Time New York Post

Gutting of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management forewarns second wave of mass layoffs. The U.S. government's Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is rapidly cutting entire departments and laying off career employees, actions that serve as a template for broader mass layoffs planned throughout federal agencies. Driven by President Trump’s ambitious vision, and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, these cuts target career civil servants, previously protected by strong employment safeguards. OPM has completely eliminated its 40-person procurement team, significantly reduced the group overseeing sensitive employee data, and disbanded teams focused on communications and diversity, equity, and inclusion. Approximately 50 OPM career employees were recently laid off through a formal reduction-in-force (RIF) process, a procedure that is typically lengthy and complex, but executed swiftly at OPM to demonstrate how other agencies could similarly reduce their workforce. Already, about 95,000 federal jobs have been cut, primarily through voluntary resignations or by firing probationary staff without career protections built up over years or decades. A second wave could eliminate hundreds of thousands more positions. Trump’s recent executive order requires agencies to hire only one employee for every four departures. Critics see these actions as severe, highlighting concerns over rapid downsizing, the weakening of employment protections, and the potentially undermining of critical government operations. Reuters

China is the U.S.’s most formidable technology, science rival, says Trump science policy nominee. Michael Kratsios, President Trump's nominee to lead the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, has identified China as America's “preeminent geopolitical rival” and primary competitor in technology and science, particularly in the sectors of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and autonomous systems. In written testimony examined by Reuters, he warned that leadership in these areas will define the future global order. His comments come as the Trump administration continues to take aggressive measures against Beijing’s technological progress, including restricting Chinese investments in strategic sectors and possibly limiting U.S. investment in China. Previously, the Biden administration similarly tightened export controls on AI chips and effectively banned Chinese vehicles from the U.S. market. Reuters

Arizona is the latest state to mull bounties amid efforts to advance Trump’s ambitious deportation plans. Arizona's legislature is considering a controversial bill that would pay police officers a $2,000 bounty for each detained undocumented immigrant. While the Republican-majority legislature is likely to pass the measure, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has promised to veto it, citing concerns over racial profiling and the inappropriate use of local police for federal immigration enforcement. Civil rights advocates argue the legislation would distract police from their primary duties and increase discrimination. Senator Lauren Kuby referred to the so-called bounty bill as the “Wild West with a twist,” condemning it as racist. Arizona has historically blurred local and federal immigration roles, notably under former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Overriding a veto would require bipartisan support, which seems unlikely. Both Missouri and Mississippi recently weighed passing bills to pay out $1,000 to civilian bounty hunters for each illegal immigrant, but the legislation was rejected in Mississippi and is expected to fail in Missouri. Reuters Arizona Mirror The Independent 

Saudi defense minister, U.S. defense secretary discuss cooperation in Washington. Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman discussed on Monday with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington D.C. ways to bolster defense cooperation and regional and international developments, the kingdom's minister said on Tuesday in a post on social media website X. The visit follows Saudi Arabia, a major U.S. ally, recently hosting high-level U.S. and Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine and restoring broader Russia-U.S. ties.  Reuters U.S. Department of Defense 

A police union in Haiti demands more protection after gangs kill a Kenyan police officer. Haitian police unions are demanding better protection and resources after a Kenyan officer was killed in a gang-controlled area north of Port-au-Prince. Union leader Garry Jean Baptiste urged the government to take security seriously as gangs control 85% of the capital. Haitian Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé pledged to strengthen the police with more equipment, acknowledging the country is “at war” with gangs. Kenya has sent over 800 officers as part of a multinational security force. Haiti’s government aims to restore order and eventually hold its first general elections in nearly a decade amid worsening violence and instability. Associated Press

They crossed the Darien Gap to reach the U.S. Now, boat-by-boat, migrants are returning. Migrants who once braved the dangerous Darien Gap, a dense jungle region between Colombia and Panama, to reach the U.S. are now returning to their home countries by boat after President Donald Trump’s crackdown on asylum. Many, primarily from Venezuela and Colombia, had waited in Mexico for months under the Biden-era U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) One app, which Trump eliminated. Now, facing no viable path to asylum, they are giving up. Panama is seeing a “reverse flow” of migrants, with boats carrying returnees south to Colombia. Some, like Venezuelan Karla Castillo, say their hopes of reaching the U.S. “went up in smoke” after Trump’s stricter immigration policies took effect. Associated Press Reuters  

EUROPE

Merz will try to accelerate German defense spending.  Germany’s newly elected chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and his Christian Democrats are talking with the Social Democrats so €200 billion ($210 billion) in special defense spending can be quickly approved, Bloomberg News reported. The two parties are strategizing how to get around Germany’s tight restrictions on government borrowing in order to make dramatic needed improvements in the country’s military. A new funding package now under consideration would double the amount approved three years ago. The mainstream parties must get to a vote before the new parliament sits on March 24, because after that, fringe parties will have the votes to block them.  Germany, like the rest of the European Union is scrambling to respond to Donald Trump’s America First policy and his insistence that the European nations take responsibility for guaranteeing Ukraine’s future security. Merz said Sunday that he’s aiming to seal a coalition deal with the SPD by Easter. Trump has said he wants a Ukraine peace deal by Easter.  Bloomberg 

Wary of Trump, Germany's Merz warns it's 'five minutes to midnight for Europe.'   Friedrich Merz, whose conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won Germany's election Sunday, declared Monday that it was "five minutes to midnight for Europe" – meaning that European Union nations must build up their own defense capabilities. To govern, Merz's conservatives must now try to form a coalition with Olaf Scholz's center-left  Social Democrats (SPD), who came in third, after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which stunned Europe with its surge to a historic second place. Merz has one realistic option to form a government: a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats. His Union bloc and the SPD have a combined 328 seats in the 630-seat parliament. he two main  To make a coalition work, the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats  will have to sort out their dramatically different approaches on the economy and migration. And then there’s the trans-Atlantic issue. "What we also see with the greatest concern, of course, is the attempt [by President Donald Trump] to make a deal with Russia on Ukraine over the heads of the Europeans, over the heads of Ukraine," Merz told a press conference. The AfD and the radical Left Party jointly won a third of seats in the new parliament, enough to block constitutional changes needed to loosen state borrowing limits  and revive the lackluster economy.  Analysts say the pressure is on for the coalition to come together quickly, present a strong face to the Trump administration, and fend off the AfD, the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.  Billionaire Elon Musk posted on X Monday that the AfD "will be the majority party by the next election."  Reuters  Associated Press 

Putin's envoy Dmitriev says Russia willing to talk about economic cooperation with U.S. "Russia is open for U.S.-Russia economic cooperation and believes such cooperation is key for more resilient global economy," Kirill Dmitriev, President Vladimir Putin' new special envoy on international economic cooperation, said Monday. Dmitriev was responding to President Donald Trump's call for "major economic development transactions with Russia." Reuters  

EU adds to its list of U.S. goods to be hit with retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. levies duties on EU steel and aluminum.  The European Union is broadening the list of U.S. goods it plans to target for retaliatory tariffs if, as threatened, the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. duties could affect European exports valued at $29.3 billion if derivative products are included.  President Donald Trump has said the metals duties could take effect as soon as March 12.  EU’s trade chief Maros Sefcovic visited Washington last week and met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Jamieson Greer, Trump’s pick for U.S. trade representative and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, then told EU envoys that the talks were positive but informal and it wasn’t clear what Trump intended to do.  Attempting to head off the threatened trade war, Sefcovic proposed a deal to lower EU tariffs on U.S. cars and other industrial goods.  The U.S. wants long-term liquefied natural gas contracts and lowered European digital and value-added taxes.  Bloomberg  

An incendiary device explodes outside the Russian Consulate in the French city of Marseille. An incendiary device exploded outside the Russian Consulate in Marseille early Monday, the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A second device failed to detonate. No injuries were reported, and the suspect fled. Russia called it a “terrorist attack.” French authorities have launched an investigation but provided no details. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

Palestinians fear that Israel will expand Jenin camp demolition into Gaza-style clearance operation across the West Bank.   Over the past month, Israeli military bulldozers have demolished large areas of the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank, and they’ve cut wide roadways through a warren of alleys, similar to tactics employed in Gaza.  Over the past month, some 40,000 Palestinians have been displaced from their homes in Jenin and nearby Tulkarm since the Israeli military began its operation, involving several brigades of troops, drones, helicopters and heavy battle tanks. On Sunday, Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered troops to prepare for "a prolonged stay," saying the camps had been cleared "for the coming year" and residents could not return. The operation has been one of the biggest since the Second Intifada uprising by Palestinians more than 20 years ago. Israel launched the operation to clear Iranian-backed militant groups including Hamas and Islamic Jihad out of the refugee camps Palestinians fear a large-scale, permanent displacement. They see similarities to President Donald Trump's call for Palestinians to be moved out of Gaza permanently, to make way for a U.S. real estate project Trump described as a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Reuters 

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza faces a key deadline. Will it last? The Gaza ceasefire’s first phase, set to end on March 1, has stalled with unresolved disputes. Hamas released 25 hostages and several bodies but still holds over 60 captives, some presumed dead. Israel delayed freeing 600 Palestinian prisoners over concerns about hostage treatment. Phase 2 negotiations, meant to secure a lasting ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, have not started. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from hardliners to resume war but also from the public to secure hostages. President Donald Trump, who took credit for the ceasefire, has sent mixed signals, including suggesting the U.S. take control of Gaza. Associated Press

EU and Israel resume dialogue with focus on Gaza's future. Israel and the European Union resumed dialogue in Brussels, focusing on Gaza’s future and bilateral relations. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar urged that ties are not "held hostage" by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called for adherence to humanitarian law and the return of displaced Gazans. The EU, divided over Israel’s military actions, seeks a role in Gaza’s reconstruction. A compromise statement reaffirmed Israel’s security while emphasizing Palestinian rights. The talks follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal for the U.S. to "take over" Gaza, which was widely rejected by Arab nations and Western allies. Reuters

U.S. targets Iran's shadow oil fleet with sanctions. The Trump administration on Monday announced new sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry, penalizing over 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies globally involved in Iranian petroleum exports. This action is part of Trump's renewed "maximum pressure" campaign aimed at reducing Iran's oil exports to zero, to hinder funding for its nuclear and missile programs. In a statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tehran continues to depend “on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers” to enable its “oil sales and fund its destabilizing activities." The sanctions particularly affect entities in the UAE, Hong Kong, India, China, and key Iranian oil institutions. While Trump's prior sanctions had significantly reduced Iran’s oil exports, they rebounded under Biden; according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran made $53 billion in 2023 from its oil exports, and $54 billion in 2022. Despite sanctions, Iran continues substantial oil sales, especially to China, bypassing U.S. controls by trading outside the dollar system. Reuters Jerusalem Post U.S. Department of the Treasury Associated Press 

Syrians express hope and skepticism as national dialogue conference kicks off. Syria’s national dialogue conference began in Damascus, aiming to shape the country’s political future after the fall of former President Bashar Assad in December. Organized by the new rebel-led government, the conference includes discussions on transitional justice, a new constitution, governance reforms, and economic rebuilding. While some participants view it as a historic step toward free political discourse, others are skeptical, citing ongoing insecurity and economic struggles. The former rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now in power, has pledged to form a new government through an inclusive process. However, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces remain excluded. Associated Press 

E.U. suspends range of sanctions against Syria. The European Union on Monday suspended several sanctions against Syria, including restrictions related to energy, banking, transport, and reconstruction, following the removal of President Bashar al-Assad by insurgents in December. E.U. foreign ministers agreed to ease measures on oil, gas, electricity, transport, and banking sectors, and also extended humanitarian aid exemptions. Syria, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), welcomed the decision as a step toward reducing civilian hardship. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said Damascus has “spent the past two months” taking part in talks and “diplomatic efforts to ease the unjust sanctions that have burdened our people.” However, EU sanctions on arms, dual-use goods, surveillance software, and cultural heritage trading will remain in place. The EU stressed the importance of continued monitoring to ensure these sanctions adjustments remain appropriate. Reuters Euronews 

Saudi Arabia quietly steps up releases of political prisoners. Saudi Arabia has quietly released dozens of political prisoners in recent weeks, including Salma al-Shehab, a UK-based PhD student sentenced to 34 years for social media activity, and Asaad al-Ghamdi, a teacher jailed for 20 years. Activists estimate over 100 individuals may have been freed, though details remain unclear. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues his modernization push while maintaining a decade-long crackdown on dissent. Rights groups argue the releases appear arbitrary, with some individuals still under travel bans. Critics see them as a tactical move to improve Saudi Arabia’s global image ahead of high-profile diplomatic engagements. Financial Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan detains cargo ship linked to China following disconnection of undersea cable. The Taiwanese coast guard said it has detained a Chinese-crewed cargo ship linked to Beijing after it was suspected of disconnecting an undersea communication cable near Taiwan's Penghu Islands. The coast guard reportedly deployed three vessels to apprehend the Hong Tai 58, which was registered in Togo and carried a flag of convenience. The ship had allegedly dropped anchor off the southwestern coast of Taiwan, close to the sea cable, around the time that it was damaged. One official said the course of the vessel, which had loitered in an area just southwest of the island since Saturday, was “beyond the normal range.” The Hong Tai 58, which was intercepted and escorted to Anping port, also failed to respond to calls by the coast guard. Taipei views this incident as potentially another instance of China's "grey zone" tactics—actions like sand dredging and balloon overflights, intended to pressure and intimidate the self-governing without direct conflict. This year, Taiwan has increased protection measures following repeated cable disruptions. While communication services remained unaffected due to rerouting, Taiwanese authorities are treating the incident as a national security concern and continue to investigate China's possible involvement. Beijing has not commented on the incident. Reuters The Guardian The Straits Times Focus Taiwan The Japan Times  

Commanding officer says U.S. Coast Guard vessel transiting Tasman Sea did not interact with Chinese navy. Captain Matthew Rooney, the commanding officer of a U.S. Coast Guard ship operating in the Tasman Sea, said Tuesday the vessel had acknowledged awareness of nearby Chinese naval exercises but had no interactions. The Coast Guard national security cutter Midgett was cooperating with Australia and New Zealand as it transited waters in the Tasman Sea, docking at a Sydney port on Saturday.  China's navy recently held unprecedented live-fire drills in international waters between Australia and New Zealand, causing flight disruptions and fueling tensions. Analysts suggest these exercises were a strategic display of China's capability to project naval power far from home waters, potentially testing the diplomatic resolve of the West and its allies. The U.S. Coast Guard’s increased Pacific presence aims to counter illegal fishing and support regional sovereignty, reflecting closer maritime security cooperation among Pacific allies. Rooney stressed that the Midgett followed “international norms” and “regulations for preventing collisions at sea.” Captain Rebecca Levitt, the commanding officer for the HMAS Kuttabul fleet base in Sydney, added that Canberra has "a very large patch of ocean” that must be safeguarded, and “we can't do that without the United States.” Reuters 

Australian aviation officials say they first learned about Chinese navy’s live firing drill by commercial pilot. Australian officials from Airservices Australia, the agency charged with aviation safety, said they learned about Chinese navy live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea on Friday morning only after a Virgin Australia pilot received a radio message from the Chinese flotilla, half an hour after drills had started. Speaking before a Senate estimates hearing on Monday night, Airservices Australia executives said that Virgin Australia first reported the live-firing, and that the message from the Chinese navy was broadcast in English, on an international guard frequency. That emergency radio channel was monitored by pilots, but not by air traffic control; 10 minutes following the initial contact from the commercial pilot, the agency informed the Australian defense force’s Joint Operations Command Headquarters, though at that point they were not sure “whether it was a potential hoax or real.” Nearly 50 flights were subsequently rerouted due to safety concerns. The Australian government expressed concern about China's lack of formal notice, as no standard aviation warnings were issued by China beforehand. Australia's military had been monitoring the Chinese warships for over a week. Canberra raised the issue diplomatically with China, underscoring the importance of timely notification for aviation safety. While Beijing did not violate international laws, leaders have criticized the inadequate notice, significantly shorter than the standard 12-24 hours typically expected for safety reasons. The Guardian Reuters Associated Press

China conducts live-fire exercises in Gulf of Tonkin following Vietnam’s assertion of its territorial claims. China initiated live-fire military exercises on Monday in the Gulf of Tonkin, shortly after Vietnam announced a new maritime boundary asserting its territorial claims in the same waters. The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration stated that the exercises, located closer to China's side of the gulf, would continue until Thursday. Vietnam, which cited international law as backing for its new boundary line, has not publicly reacted to China's drills. The two countries have butted heads over contested maritime claims, particularly concerning the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, where confrontations have previously turned violent. This includes an incident in October in which Chinese forces assaulted 10 Vietnamese fishermen. China's expansive claims in the South China Sea also conflict with territories claimed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Indonesia, resulting in regular disputes and tensions. Associated Press Radio Free Asia 

Report says Chinese vessels breached U.N. bans by using, mistreating North Korean crews. A Monday report by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) asserts that between 2019 and 2024, Chinese fishing vessels illegally employed North Korean crews, violating U.N. sanctions and subjecting workers to severe abuses. North Koreans aboard these vessels reportedly endured forced labor, with some spending up to a decade at sea without returning to land, being transferred repeatedly between ships to evade detection. These transfers prevent the EJF from estimating the number of North Koreans aboard the dozen Chinese tuna long-liners operating in the southwest Indian Ocean. The report, based largely on testimonies from Indonesian and Filipino crewmates, highlights the severe restrictions imposed on the North Koreans, including being denied access to communication and prevented from leaving ships during port stops. Employing North Korean labor violates 2017 U.N. Security Council resolutions passed in the wake of Pyongyang’s controversial nuclear and missile tests, which prohibited employing North Korean workers abroad after 2019. Despite these sanctions, China has been accused of inadequate enforcement, though it denies wrongdoing and states that its fishing activities comply with international law. The EJF also indicated that fish from these vessels entered Asian markets, potentially breaching EU and UK trade restrictions aimed at excluding goods produced through forced labor. Experts assert that North Korean labor abroad, in many different industries, continues to fund the country's nuclear ambitions despite international sanctions. Associated Press 

Arms without ideology are 'ironware', says North Korean leader. North Korean state media on Tuesday reported that leader Kim Jong Un has underscored the importance of ideology in strengthening the military, stating that weapons alone without ideological commitment are merely "ironware." Speaking at Kim Il Sung University of Politics, which trains military officers for political roles, Kim highlighted the necessity of prioritizing ideological, moral, and political loyalty within the army to enhance its qualitative superiority. Kim also said the ruling Workers' Party values "the matchless loyalty and heroism of overcoming hardship and sacrifice cheerfully if the country calls.” His remarks come amid reports that North Korean troops supporting Russia in Ukraine have suffered heavy losses. Kim avoided directly mentioning the U.S. or South Korea in his speech, but has previously blamed both for regional tensions, and pledged to continue nuclear buildup as a response. Reuters

South Korea court hears final statements in Yoon's high-profile impeachment trial. South Korea's Constitutional Court on Tuesday held its final hearing on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who faces charges from the National Assembly for improperly declaring martial law in December without a national emergency or proper legal procedures. Yoon is expected to defend his actions as a necessary governance decision and challenge the legality of the ongoing investigations against him. Both sides presented closing arguments, with Yoon’s involvement in the botched martial law bid and the legitimacy of subsequent investigations by anti-corruption authorities being key points. The court's decision will determine the embattled leader’s political fate. Yonhap News Agency Reuters

Top American general for Asia-Pacific region visits Cambodia in bid to strengthen relations. Gen. Ronald P. Clark, the commanding general of the United States Army Pacific, visited Cambodia on Monday to improve strained relations between the two countries. The visit was aimed at rebuilding military cooperation amid concerns over Cambodia's close alliance with China, particularly fears over potential Chinese military access at a strategic naval base on the Gulf of Thailand. During the visit, Cambodian leaders highlighted their contributions to U.N. peacekeeping and thanked Washington for helping clear unexploded ordnance left from past conflicts. Cambodian military chief Gen. Mao Sophan met with Clark for talks on trade, defense, demining efforts, counterterrorism, tourism, culture, and peacekeeping. Associated Press VOA Defense Post 

Russia, Indonesia hold discussions on bolstering defense, security ties. Sergei Shoigu, a senior Russian security official, is visiting Jakarta in an effort to deepen military cooperation amid growing bilateral ties, discussing defense and mutual interests with Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin and meeting with President Prabowo Subianto. The visit occurs as Indonesia maintains neutrality over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite strengthening ties with Moscow, notably through joint membership in international groups like BRICS. Indonesia, which has a history of diplomatic neutrality, previously engaged both Ukraine and Russia as it sought to secure a cease-fire. Shoigu will depart for Malaysia on Wednesday. Associated Press The Moscow Times Bloomberg Reuters   

10 militants killed by Pakistani security forces in raid near Afghanistan. The Pakistani military on Monday announced that it conducted an operation against militants in the northwest region near the Afghan border, killing 10 militants in the town of Bagh, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Details about the militants were not disclosed, but similar operations typically target the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Separately, tensions rose after Pakistan closed the Torkham border crossing due to a dispute with Kabul over construction at the border. The closure disrupted trade between the two countries. Afghanistan objects to Pakistan's border constructions, as it does not officially recognize the border, while Pakistan continues reinforcing it with fencing. Associated Press 

AFRICA

Children face lethal violence and rape in east Congo war. M23 rebels and retreating Congolese soldiers have killed and raped children as violence intensifies in eastern Congo. A 10-year-old boy was shot by looting soldiers in Goma, while the United Nations reports M23 executed children in Bukavu. Healthcare facilities recorded 572 rape cases in a week, including 170 children. Some died while fleeing. Congo and Rwanda blame each other, with M23 denying allegations. Survivors describe widespread terror, including extreme sexual violence. A one-year-old baby died from shrapnel wounds. The conflict, tied to Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and Congo’s mineral wealth, has escalated to its worst level in over a decade. Reuters

UK will impose sanctions on Rwanda 'soon' in response to Congo conflict. Britain will impose sanctions on Rwanda soon over its alleged support for M23 rebels in eastern Congo, UK Foreign Office Minister Ray Collins told Reuters. Speaking in Geneva, he said the UK had clarified its position and would act shortly. Rwanda denies backing M23, claiming self-defense. The U.S. recently sanctioned James Kabarebe, a close ally of President Paul Kagame, for alleged ties to M23, a move Rwanda called unjustified. Reuters

Diplomat says EU to review raw materials deal with Rwanda over DRC conflict. European Union foreign ministers have not agreed to immediate sanctions on Rwanda over its alleged support for M23 rebels in eastern Congo but may impose them depending on developments. High Representative Kaja Kallas said the EU will review its raw materials agreement with Rwanda and has suspended defense consultations. The deal, part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative, aims to secure mineral supplies but faces scrutiny after M23 seized resource-rich Congolese territories. Rwanda denies involvement, but critics say it profits from smuggled minerals. The EU has urged Rwanda to withdraw troops, warning of a looming regional conflict. Euronews

Rwanda’s Kabarebe, sanctioned by U.S. over ties to Congo rebels, is Kagame's 'hatchet man.’ The U.S. has sanctioned Rwandan official James Kabarebe, a close ally of President Paul Kagame, for allegedly coordinating M23 rebels in Congo. Kabarebe, a key figure in Rwanda’s military for decades, has played a central role in multiple conflicts in Congo, including the latest M23 offensive. While he is celebrated in Rwanda for helping end the 1994 genocide, he is widely reviled in Congo for war crimes. The U.N. links him to M23’s financing through illegal mineral trade. Rwanda denies backing M23, calling the sanctions unjustified. Former allies see the move as long-overdue accountability for Rwanda’s destabilization of Congo. Reuters

An unknown illness kills over 50 people in part of Congo with hours between symptoms and death. An unknown illness has killed 53 people in northwestern Congo since Jan. 21, with 419 recorded cases, according to doctors and the World Health Organization (WHO). Most deaths occur within 48 hours of symptom onset. The outbreak began in Boloko after three children ate a bat and died from hemorrhagic fever symptoms. A second outbreak started in Bomate on Feb. 9. Tests for Ebola and Marburg were negative, though some cases tested positive for malaria. The WHO notes a rising trend in animal-to-human disease transmission, with African outbreaks increasing by over 60% in the past decade. Associated Press Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Medical organization pulls out of famine-stricken camp in Sudan's Darfur due to heavy fighting. Doctors Without Borders (MSF, by its French acronym) has suspended operations at Sudan’s Zamzam camp due to escalating violence between the military and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The camp, home to 500,000 displaced people, is experiencing famine and severe malnutrition. MSF’s field hospital, initially focused on malnutrition, treated 139 gunshot and shrapnel victims this month, but lacked trauma surgery capabilities, leading to 11 deaths, including five children. Looting and attacks have cut access to food, water, and medical referrals. MSF cited worsening security, supply issues, and staff safety concerns as reasons for withdrawal, leaving thousands without critical humanitarian aid. Reuters MSF Associated Press 

Morocco says it thwarted attacks by cell loyal to Islamic State. Moroccan authorities arrested 12 suspects this month linked to Islamic State in the Sahel, accusing them of planning remote bomb attacks. Officials called the plot an “imminent dangerous terrorist” threat, highlighting extremist ambitions in the region. Police raids uncovered weapons, explosives, and cash, while suspects, aged 18 to 40, were detained in nine cities. The group, “Lions of the Caliphate in the Maghreb,” reportedly took orders from Sahel-based commanders. Authorities say Morocco remains a key target, despite foiling numerous plots. The arrests come amid rising militant activity in the Sahel, where groups exploit instability following French troop withdrawals.  Associated Press Reuters ABC 

Violence at the border between Kenya and Ethiopia. Kenya has deployed heavy security along its border with Ethiopia after armed clashes left 20 people missing. Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen said Kenya is working with Ethiopian authorities to locate them. The violence erupted Saturday between Ethiopian and Kenyan fishermen on the Omo River, with 15 boats reported missing. The Turkana and Dassanech communities, who rely on fishing and pastoralism, have faced previous cross-border tensions, including livestock raids. Kenya has increased police presence but says raiders often flee into Ethiopia. Murkomen announced plans to establish a border post to monitor movement and enhance security in the region. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Chinese rivals to Starlink satellite internet dominance lay out ambitious expansions.  Two key challengers are emerging to Starlink’s dominance of the high-speed satellite internet sector.   SpaceSail, a Chinese state-backed firm based in Shanghai, and Project Kuiper, the satellite startup of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, both have been active recently in signing new clients for their services.  SpaceSail late last year entered the market in Brazil and Kazakhstan and reportedly is in talks with 30 other countries.   Bezos’ startup also is in talks with Brazil to provide internet services.  Brazil is eager to invite competition to Starlink in its efforts to extend high-speed internet services to remote areas of the country.  Currently, the Elon Musk-owned Starlink communications service is far ahead with more satellites in low-Earth-orbit (LEO) than all of its competitors combined.  SpaceSail would not comment to Reuters on its growth plans, but it previously announced that it would deploy 648 LEO satellites this year and up to 15,000 by 2030.  By comparison, Starlink now has 7,000 satellites on orbit with a goal of operating 42,000 by 2030.  In addition to SpaceSail’s Qianfan constellation, China has three other satellite networks in development with plans for 43,000 LEO satellites in coming decades.   Space experts describe Qianfan as a crucial space segment of China's Belt and Road Initiative.  Chaitanya Giri, a space technology expert at India's Observer Research Foundation, said "the endgame is to occupy as many orbital slots as possible."  Commercial applications are not the only focus of Chinese interest in LEO satellites.  Chinese researchers, including those linked to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), have been active in the sector, with China publishing a record 2,449 patents related to LEO satellite technology in 2023.   A PLA-linked patent application described Starlink as critical to reconnaissance and military communications and also posing "threats to network, data, and military security."  Reuters   Cybernews   Wall Street Journal

Alibaba announces $52 billion, 3-year investment in cloud, AI infrastructure.  Chinese tech conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding plans investments of at least $52.4 billion for cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years.  The planned funding would make this the single-largest computing project carried out by a private business.  The investment plan is larger that Alibaba’s total AI infrastructure spending over the past 10 years.  The company said the investment plan demonstrate its “focus on AI-driven growth and its role as a leading global cloud provider.”  An analyst with Everbright Securities projects that the Alibaba announcement will spur other companies to make AI capital investments, adding “after all, in the initial stage of artificial intelligence development, there are first-mover advantages.”  Alibaba has realized better-than-expected profit and revenue for the December quarter, which has encouraged investors.  Alibaba’s own Qwen AI models are being used by developers as a base for an increasing number of open-source models.  Several top models on the Hugging Face developer platform have been trained and developed on Qwen.  Alibaba is expected to launch a new reasoning AI model built on its Qwen 2.5-Max model, a currently closed-source model that compares favorably to DeepSeek.   Alibaba’s new model will offer developers an alternative to DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model.  Bloomberg Intelligence describes Alibaba’s AI investment plan as “a speculative, risky gamble in the pursuit of AGI.”  “It’s not clear,” Bloomberg writes, “whether the current generation of models can achieve AGI, with any payback an uncertain and indistinct prospect.”  South China Morning Post   Bloomberg   Wall Street Journal   Reuters

GOP national committee emails breached by China-linked hackers last summer.  A previously undisclosed breach of the Republican National Committee email system by hackers linked to China took place as the GOP was preparing for its Milwaukee convention last summer.  Sources say that Microsoft informed top party officials in July that hackers had gained access to the RNC email network for months.  RNC officials say hackers may have been seeking insights into the party’s platform regarding Taiwan.  The RNC leadership decided not to report the hack to the FBI because of concerns that the breach would be leaked to the media.  However, according to a source, government components were aware of the compromise.  The extent of the hack has not been described nor how many emails may have been accessed Microsoft and the RNC have declined comment.  Laura Galante, a Biden administration intelligence community official, said that breaking into a party email system may provide “adversaries the ability to map relationships between key political actors, and then also potentially get a window into policy shifts or policy thinking and how that might play out if that target comes into power.”  The report on the email system breach was disclosed in Alex Isenstadt’s forthcoming book, “Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump’s Return to Power.”  Wall Street Journal

Former NSA chief warns adversaries outdistancing U.S. in cyber capabilities.  Former NSA and Cyber Command chief Gen. Paul Nakasone warns that the U.S. is falling behind its adversaries in cyberspace as they continue to expand their capabilities.  Speaking at a Washington cybersecurity conference, Nakasone said that “our adversaries are continuing to be able to broaden the spectrum of what they’re able to do to us.”  What lies ahead, Nakasone said, are “cyberattacks against a series of platforms being able to actually down platforms with ones and zeros.”  The Chinese Volt and Salt Typhoon campaigns, alongside widespread ransomware attacks, Nakasone said, expose the vulnerabilities in U.S. networks, software, and infrastructure.  Nakasone, who serves on the board of OpenAI, pointed to AI’s potential to bolster offensive capabilities, including versatile AI agents that could penetrate adversary systems. Nakasone said he agrees with congressional and administration leaders who advocate for a more aggressive offensive cyber strategy.  The “persistent engagement” approach urged by these officials includes a deterrence philosophy that attacks on U.S. infrastructure will result in consequences for attackers.  CyberScoop

Shanghai developer conference builds on momentum of DeepSeek open-source models.  The Global Developer Conference that was held over the weekend in Shanghai was a gathering point for many open-source developers from across China who have been inspired by DeepSeek’s successful AI models. Exhibitions at the conference featured open-source use cases ranging from robotics to virtual reality glasses.  Shanghai Vice-Mayor Chen Jie told the opening ceremony of the three-day event, “we will further improve the open-source ecosystem, strengthen the service system for open data and open models, and continue building the open-source community.”  Shanghai’s AI sector exceeded $62 billion in value last year, Chen said, and has produced 60 major models.  Xiong Jijun, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said the government supports open-source communities that operate on principles of “openness, co-creation, sharing and collaborative governance.”  The weekend conference marks the first major gathering of the sector since DeepSeek’s model releases in December and January.  Mulitiple developers participating in the conference said they support and in some cases plan to adopt DeepSeek models.  An example is Stepfun, a Shanghai-based AI developer that recently released two open-source multimodal models, one for text-to-video generation and another for voice interactions.   With continued advances in multimodal and reasoning capabilities, Stepfun CEO Jiang Daxin anticipates more opportunities for AI agents performing as domain-specific intelligent bots.  DeepSeek itself did not participate in the conference.  South China Morning Post

Microsoft reportedly cancels data center leases due to capacity oversupply.  Microsoft has canceled leases totaling “a couple of hundred megawatts” of capacity with at least two private data center operators.  The move suggests a possible oversupply of data center capacity even as the company expands AI infrastructure to meet possible future demand.  Microsoft also has paused converting preliminary documents to formal leases, analysts report, following the lead of other tech firms such as Meta, which has taken these steps to lower capital spending.  A Microsoft spokesperson said plans to invest $80 billion this year in AI and cloud capacity remain on track, adding that the company "may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas." Cancellations of leases potentially signal a sharp shift given that Microsoft has spent billions of dollars on data centers to overcome capacity bottlenecks.  Bernstein analyst Mark Moelder said the reported cancellations may reflect Microsoft’s capacity buildup in recent years.  "(Microsoft) management may have rented,” Moelder said, “even at a meaningful premium, data centers and GPU capacity and negotiated more deals for additional future capacity than they needed.”  Reuters   Bloomberg

Australia bans government use of Kaspersky software on cyber espionage grounds.  Australia has banned government use of cybersecurity software from Kaspersky Lab, a Russian firm, due to concerns over espionage and foreign interference.  No new installations of Kaspersky products will be permitted on government systems, and all existing Kaspersky software must be removed by April, according to a government directive.  Stephanie Foster, Australia’s secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, said in a statement that the move against Kaspersky stem from its “extensive collection of user data and exposure of that data to extrajudicial directions from a foreign government that conflict with Australian law.”  Australia now joins the U.S., Britain, and Canada in imposing restrictions on Kaspersky software.  Some Australian agencies may seek an exemption to the ban but it will be time-limited and justified by “national security or regulatory functions, including compliance and law enforcement functions.”  A Kaspersky spokesperson said the company attributes Australia’s decision to “the current geopolitical climate and was not supported by any technical assessment of the company’s products, which the company has been continuously advocating for.”  Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands also have taken steps to end Kaspersky software use by government agencies.  The Record   Bleeping Computer   TechCrunch

Chinese hackers suspected behind password-spraying attacks on Microsoft 365.  Large-scale password-spraying attacks are being launched against Microsoft 365 by what is described as “a massive botnet of over 130 compromised devices.”  The attacks have been occurring since last December and appear to be carried out by an advanced Chinese-affiliated group, possibly with Volt or Salt Typhoon links, according to researchers with Strike.  The attackers are exploiting non-interactive sign-ins with basic authentication, which does not require multi-factor authentication (MFA).  This tactic creates blind spots for security teams that create risks of account takeovers and could lead threat actors to sensitive data or the opportunity to disrupt business operations.  The Strike researchers did not directly attribute the attacks to specific actors but explained in a note that “the use of Zookeeper (an open-source server) could indicate a sophisticated threat actor with strong software engineering knowledge, given the complexity of running a Zookeeper cluster at scale,” the researcher notes.  The note goes on to warn that “this botnet activity highlights the importance of deprecating basic authentication, proactively monitoring login patterns, and implementing strong detection mechanisms for password spraying attempts.”  Cybernews   BleepingComputer

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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