Open Source Report for Thursday, February 27, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, February 27, 2025

Trump, Zelensky goals differ ahead of high-stakes summit

Trump administration says it is cutting 90% of USAID foreign aid contracts

US, UK at odds over security guarantees for Ukraine ahead of critical talks

UN nuclear watchdog says Iran has boosted its stockpile of highly enriched uranium

Former senior officials appeal for sustained R&D funding to compete with China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Taiwan faces China threats from sea and cyber. Tensions are high in Taiwan. Taiwan’s defense ministry said Wednesday that the Chinese army has been running life-fire naval drills off Taiwan’s southwestern coast that endanger commercial aviation and shipping.  In January, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reported that cyberattacks against Taiwanese government departments in 2024 more than doubled from the previous year, reaching an average of 2.4 million attacks a day, most attributed to Chinese cyber forces. To understand the situation, The Cipher Brief turned to retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, who was in Taipei for the Halifax International Security Forum. The Cipher Brief   

Taliban’s Internal Power Struggle: A Regime on the Brink. The Taliban is not the solid, well-disciplined organization outsiders imagine. Matin Bek, a former Afghan official, now a fellow with New America's Future Security Program, has investigated reports of divisions that are about to burst into public view. His report: the radical religious group is plagued with “deep-rooted factionalism, multiple power centers, and an ongoing internal power struggle…The once cohesive and monolithic terrorist organization is unraveling along these very lines.”   Bek writes that instead of fighting poverty or creating jobs, Taliban leaders are mismanaging the nation’s resources, and they’ve allowed the lucrative mining sector to be controlled by shady figures like Haji Bashir Noorzai, the heroin kingpin and Taliban financier the U.S. traded in September 2022 for American contractor Mark Frerichs, a U.S. Navy veteran abducted in January 2020. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump, Zelensky goals differ ahead of high-stakes summit. President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky will enter Friday’s White House meeting with starkly different goals. Zelensky seeks security guarantees and continued U.S. support, particularly military aid, while Trump prioritizes ending the war and recovering U.S. assistance through a minerals deal. “My number one thing is to get that stopped. My number two thing is, I don’t want to have to pay any more money,” Trump said, presiding Wednesday over his first Cabinet meeting. He said Europe should take responsibility for Kyiv’s security and that Ukraine “can forget about” NATO, but he would hope to help Ukraine recover as much of its Russian-occupied territory as possible in negotiations. “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much,” Trump said. He indicated he would not ease sanctions against Russia until a peace deal is reached. Trump framed the minerals agreement as beneficial for both sides, arguing that it provides Ukraine “automatic security” by ensuring an American presence. Zelensky rejected reimbursing past U.S. aid, calling it a dangerous precedent and seeks to minimize any concessions in negotiations. The meeting follows a shift in U.S. policy, with Trump moving closer to Moscow’s positions. Washington Post Fox News Kyiv Independent Financial Times Politico EU

Ukraine hopes its minerals deal will dig it out of a hole with Trump. Ukraine’s government is set to approve a framework deal with the U.S. on jointly exploiting Ukrainian mineral resources, with President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky expected to sign it in Washington on Friday. The agreement avoids Trump’s initial demands, including a $500 billion “payback” and full U.S. ownership of an investment fund, instead establishing proportional ownership based on contributions. Ukraine will commit 50% of future government resource revenues—excluding existing projects—toward a joint fund for investment. However, key details remain unclear, including governance and American control over the fund. While the deal references security guarantees, it does not explicitly provide them. Zelensky reportedly will not sign a second agreement without such assurances. The deal allows Ukraine to de-escalate tensions with Trump and avoid more punitive terms, but its long-term implications remain uncertain, particularly given unknown resource valuations and the lack of provisions for processing facilities. Ukraine has gained time but little concrete security. The Economist Kyiv Independent  Reuters New York Times Kyiv Independent Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg Wall Street Journal EU Observer Bloomberg

Analysis: Trump might have made a bad mineral deal with Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s push for a mineral deal with Ukraine may fall short of expectations. While Ukraine reportedly holds 5% of the world’s critical minerals, estimates are based on outdated Soviet-era surveys, with only 8,000 of 20,000 deposits assessed as viable. Mining development requires at least $15 billion, and many rare-earth deposits remain inaccessible due to war. Extraction and processing challenges, coupled with China’s dominance in refining, make profitability uncertain. Some of the largest reserves are in Russian-occupied territories, complicating access. Trump must decide whether to bolster Ukraine’s recovery or seek minerals from Russia instead. Politico EU

Mapping Ukraine’s mineral deals with the US. Ukraine holds vast mineral wealth, with deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals classified as critical by the European Union, including graphite, lithium, titanium, uranium, and rare earth elements. These resources are vital for high-tech industries, defense, and energy production. Ukraine possesses 6% of global graphite reserves, essential for batteries and nuclear reactors, and one of Europe’s largest lithium reserves. Its titanium deposits could meet U.S. and EU demand for 25 years, while its uranium reserves are crucial for nuclear power. Reuters Reuters

Extracting Ukraine’s Minerals Won’t Be Easy. Getting Near Them Will Be Even Harder. Ukraine’s mineral deal with the U.S. faces major obstacles beyond security concerns. Corruption, outdated geological data, and bureaucratic hurdles deterred foreign investment in the country’s resource sector even before the war. Roughly 40% of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territory is now under Russian control, further complicating extraction efforts. Many deposits are mapped using outdated Soviet-era surveys, requiring costly new explorations. Previous attempts by major companies like Shell and Chevron failed due to local opposition and government inefficiencies. Ukraine’s lithium sector, despite its potential, requires hundreds of millions in investment before mining can begin. Energy disruptions from Russian attacks have already hampered production, with titanium producer Velta operating at half capacity. Without strong security guarantees, investors remain hesitant, with one executive stating, “No rational corporate CEO would ever invest.” While the U.S. deal promises economic benefits, the reality of infrastructure challenges and ongoing conflict may significantly delay any meaningful mineral extraction. Wall Street Journal

North Korea Is Sending More Troops to Russia, South Korea Say. North Korea has reportedly deployed an additional 3,000 troops to Russia despite suffering heavy casualties in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to South Korea’s spy agency. This follows an initial deployment of 11,000 troops last year, alongside shipments of artillery and missiles. North Korean forces, initially withdrawn in January after sustaining losses from drone attacks, returned to the front lines in early February. Analysts suggest Pyongyang is gaining combat experience while receiving food, oil, and advanced weapons technology from Moscow. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has strengthened ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, reviving a Cold War-era defense treaty. New York Times

Russian and US teams meet in Istanbul for talks on mending relations. U.S. and Russian diplomats met in Istanbul on Thursday to discuss embassy staffing, visas, and diplomatic banking, marking the first step in President Donald Trump’s push to reset relations with Moscow. The talks, following Trump’s February 12 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, come amid concerns from Ukraine and European allies that Trump’s rapid engagement with Russia could lead to a ceasefire deal that sidelines them. The U.S. emphasized that Ukraine was not on the agenda, while the Kremlin downplayed expectations for quick solutions, citing a need to rebuild trust. Reuters

Trump turned sharply against Zelensky. Now the MAGA base has, too. President Donald Trump’s sharp turn against President Volodymyr Zelensky has triggered a rapid shift among his Republican base. Last week, Trump falsely claimed Ukraine started the war and labeled Zelensky a “dictator” exploiting the war for financial gain. The response was swift: a new Economist-YouGov poll shows Republican disapproval of Zelensky surged from 40% to 56%, with those holding a “very unfavorable” view doubling to 32%. Meanwhile, only 38% of Republicans now consider Russia an “enemy,” down from 64% in early 2022. While 57% still acknowledge Russia started the war, nearly 30% either blame Ukraine or see equal fault. The poll also found Republicans increasingly unsure of Trump’s stance—16% now say he favors Russia, up from 10% last week. Though most Republicans still sympathize with Ukraine, Trump’s influence could continue shifting their views. His attacks on Zelensky appear to be reshaping GOP sentiment in real time. Washington Post

War-weary Ukrainian Americans dare to hope as Trump pivots to Russia. Ukrainian Americans gathered in Jenkintown, Pennsylvania, to mark three years since Russia’s invasion, balancing hope with anxiety over shifting U.S. policy. As President Donald Trump moves closer to Russia, many fear waning American support. “I feel as scared as I did three years ago,” said museum curator Chrystyna Prokopovych. Trump’s administration has blocked new humanitarian applications for Ukrainians and cast doubt on temporary protections. Attendees expressed pride in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s resilience. “We’ve been proud of him standing up to Moscow,” said Nicholas Rudnytzky. A vigil closed the day with songs, prayers, and donations to aid wounded soldiers. Washington Post 

France Expects US to Provide Backup After Ukraine Ceasefire. French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said the US is expected to provide backup for European troops enforcing a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. Speaking in Cape Town, he noted that the UK, France, and others are prepared to send forces, and he believes the US has agreed. Donald Trump’s administration is pushing for a quick resolution. Lombard and President Emmanuel Macron met with Trump in Washington to discuss Ukraine and trade. Lombard also emphasized European unity as Trump challenges global institutions. Bloomberg

US abstains from WTO condemnation of Russian aggression in Ukraine, sources say. The United States abstained from a World Trade Organization statement condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine for the first time since 2022, aligning with its recent neutral stance at the U.N. Security Council. The statement, signed by 44 WTO members, including the European Union, UK, and Canada, warned of the war’s economic impact. Reuters

EBRD Lowers Ukraine Growth Forecast as Russia Targets Electricity Network. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has cut Ukraine’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.5% from 4.7%, citing Russia’s continued attacks on power infrastructure. A ceasefire by late 2025 could push growth to 5% in 2026, but much uncertainty surrounds post-war recovery. U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a swift resolution, while the Kremlin will likely drag out negotiations to gain leverage. Eastern European economies face setbacks as Germany, France, and Italy stagnate, while higher U.S. tariffs threaten trade-dependent nations like Slovakia and Hungary. Meanwhile, defense spending in EBRD-invested regions has doubled since 2014 and is set to rise as Western Europe braces for further security threats. Bloomberg

Ukraine is scrambling to find fresh fighters. A deadly attack on a Ukrainian draft officer has highlighted growing resistance to conscription as Ukraine struggles with manpower shortages. The armed forces face mounting pressure as Russia replenishes its ranks faster, adding 430,000 soldiers in 2024 without general mobilization. Ukraine is weighing lowering the draft age from 25 to 18, but President Volodymyr Zelensky remains hesitant, prioritizing new weapons over mass mobilization. His government must balance recruitment needs with economic stability, currently exempting nearly 1 million critical workers. Ukraine is launching a voluntary recruitment program targeting 18-24-year-olds to bolster ranks, offering bonuses and competitive pay. Meanwhile, Western advisers push for faster mobilization, warning that Ukraine must strengthen its forces to counter Russian advances and avoid being forced into an unfavorable settlement. If the war drags on and Russia continues expanding its forces, Ukraine’s draft policies will likely tighten further, risking internal divisions and more violent opposition to recruitment efforts. The Economist

Ukraine Drones Attacked Russia’s Tuapse Refinery, Major Port. Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery and port on the Black Sea, a key logistics hub supplying fuel to the Russian military. Ukraine’s General Staff reported at least 40 explosions at the refinery, along with strikes on two airfields in occupied Crimea. The refinery, operated by Rosneft, processes 240,000 barrels daily and has been repeatedly targeted due to its strategic location. Russia claimed to have shot down 128 drones, including 83 in Krasnodar but did not confirm damage to the refinery. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, hitting refineries and crude pipeline facilities in recent weeks. Bloomberg

Russia's advance slows down in critical areas after Ukraine regrouped, Syrskyi says. Ukraine has regrouped its forces, slowing Russia’s advance in key areas, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday. Russian troops are pushing in the Novopavlivka sector of Donetsk Oblast, aiming to capture three settlements, though Syrskyi did not specify which. Ukraine's repositioning near Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub, has disrupted Russia’s offensive. On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces recaptured Kotlyne. The General Staff reported 110 clashes along the front line, with Russia suffering heavy losses. Kyiv Independent

8 killed, 18 injured in Russian attacks against Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians and injured 18 over the past day, regional authorities reported on Thursday. In Donetsk Oblast, seven were killed and 11 injured, including six fatalities in Kostiantynivka. A strike in Pokrovsk killed one and injured another. In Kherson Oblast, one person was killed and two injured. Russian drone attacks targeted 11 oblasts overnight, with Ukraine’s air defenses downing 90 drones. Additional strikes injured civilians in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, damaging homes and infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Feb. 26. Russian officials continue to demand Ukraine's surrender of territories it still controls and insist that any peace deal be based on Russia’s 2021 demands. Russia is calling for the handover of major Ukrainian cities it does not currently occupy, which would displace over a million people. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other Kremlin officials reject ceasefires and negotiations that do not align with Russia’s war objectives, showing that Vladimir Putin still believes he can achieve his goals militarily. Russian officials proposed giving the Federal Security Service (FSB) control over all pretrial detention facilities, raising concerns about the abuse of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, while Russian troops made gains near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Robotyne. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump sows confusion on tariffs for Canada and Mexico, floats 25% duty on EU goods. During a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, President Donald Trump created confusion over the timeline and scope of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Initially, he stated that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4 but later suggested they could be postponed until April 2. A White House official clarified that the March 4 deadline remains unless further progress is made on border security and fentanyl control. Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on EU goods, particularly automobiles, while criticizing the bloc for trade practices he claims harm the U.S. The European Commission warned it would respond swiftly to any new barriers. Meanwhile, financial markets reacted skeptically, with Canada’s dollar and Mexico’s peso briefly rising on speculation of a delay. Additionally, the U.S. Senate confirmed Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative. Greer signaled interest in renegotiating the USMCA to prevent China from exploiting trade loopholes. Reuters Bloomberg Politico

Trump administration moves forward with more layoffs as Musk extols cuts at cabinet meeting. The Trump administration is advancing with large-scale layoffs across the federal government amid President Trump’s staunch endorsement of Elon Musk’s aggressive push to shrink federal agencies. Thousands of workers have already been fired, with 75,000 more accepting deferred resignation packages. A White House memo directed agencies to submit plans for further cuts by March and April, prioritizing the elimination of non-mandated functions. The administration is also considering relocating some agencies outside Washington, D.C., with the Department of Education as a potential target. While national security and public safety roles are exempt, members of Musk’s team have gained access to government agencies and records databases. Trump has also signed an executive order expanding the authority of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to scrutinize agency spending and freeze most government credit cards for 30 days. The cuts have faced public backlash, with polls showing more Americans opposing Musk’s involvement in federal downsizing. New York Times Reuters CNN Associated Press

Uproar as White House says it will dictate which reporters can access Trump. The Trump administration’s announcement that it will assume control of the White House press pool, stripping the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) of its role in determining which journalists cover the president, has sparked indignation and overturned over 70 years of protocol. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt framed the move as democratizing access, but critics argue it gives more power to the White House, while favoring right-wing media and podcasters. The decision sparked immediate backlash, with major news outlets, including Reuters, Bloomberg, and the Associated Press, condemning the change as a threat to press freedom. The senior editors of each of those outlets said “it is essential in a democracy for the public to have access to news about their government from an independent, free press.” The White House also barred AP from presidential events after it refused to comply with Trump’s demand to rename the Gulf of Mexico. Further adding to the controversy, on Wednesday Trump wrote that he was considering legal action against “some of these dishonest authors and book publishers, or even media in general, to find out whether or not these ‘anonymous sources’ even exist.” Jacqui Heinrich, a Fox News correspondent and WHCA board member, denounced the move, calling it a “short-sighted decision” that will “feel a lot different when a future Democratic administration kicks out conservative-leaning outlets and other critical voices.” This shift has raised concerns about government control over media access and potential retaliation against critical news outlets. The Guardian Reuters Associated Press

Trump administration says it is cutting 90% of USAID foreign aid contracts. The Trump administration is cutting over 90% of US Agency for International Development’s foreign aid contracts, slashing $60 billion in global assistance. The move, described as eliminating waste, has halted thousands of programs, including life-saving initiatives in Africa. Critics, including nonprofits and lawmakers, accuse Trump of bypassing Congress and courts to dismantle aid infrastructure. A federal judge ordered the freeze lifted, but the Supreme Court temporarily blocked the ruling, pending a full review of the legal issues. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has endorsed the cuts while legal battles over funding continue. The cuts mark a sharp shift from decades of U.S. foreign policy focused on stability and global alliances. Associated Press Washington Post The Guardian NPR New York Times

Trump says ‘gold card’ visa could aid in paying down U.S. debt. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that his plans for a new “gold card” visa program, described as a more “sophisticated” alternative to a green card, would help Washington pay down trillions in national debt, while providing companies with a method of attracting skilled immigrant workers. He added that the U.S. would begin selling the “gold card,” which replaces the EB-5 visa program, in around two weeks. According to advisory firm Henley & Partners, over 100 nations around the globe offer “golden visas,” including the U.K., Italy, Canada, Spain, Greece, Malta, and Australia. Associated Press Fortune Reuters Barron's

White House Touts Arrests of Violent Migrants, But Trump’s Crackdown Is Much Broader. The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has led to a surge in arrests, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement detaining over 20,000 migrants in the administration’s first month—more than double the pace of the previous year. While officials highlight arrests of suspected criminals and gang members, many detainees, like Lucas Dos Santos Amaral, have no criminal background and are being arrested during routine check-ins or due to minor visa violations. ICE agents have employed aggressive tactics, raising concerns about racial profiling and targeting asylum seekers. Despite the high arrest numbers, deportations remain a challenge as many migrants await court proceedings. Wall Street Journal

Canada escalates deportations, predominantly those rejected for refugee status. Canada deported a record number of people in 2024, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with the majority being rejected refugee claimants. The increase is part of the government’s efforts to tighten immigration policies amid a growing asylum backlog and public concerns over housing shortages. Between January and November 2024, Canada deported 7,300 people, an 8.4% rise from 2023 and a 95% increase from 2022. The government has also allocated additional funding to accelerate deportations, with more removals expected in the coming years. Critics warn that deportations may put asylum seekers at risk while their appeals are still in process. Reuters

Trump’s Threats Lift Canada’s Liberals from Almost-Certain Defeat. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs and remarks about making Canada the 51st U.S. state have reshaped Canada's upcoming election. The Liberal Party, previously trailing by a wide margin, has surged in polls, with Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, emerging as the frontrunner to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader. Carney is positioning himself as the candidate best equipped to counter Trump's economic policies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, once expected to win decisively, now faces a tighter race. Trump’s latest comments, including potential 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, have fueled nationalist sentiment in Canada. Chrystia Freeland, also vying for the Liberal leadership, has promised retaliatory tariffs. Polls indicate that voters are now weighing who is best to handle Trump's aggressive stance rather than simply replacing the Trudeau government. If Carney wins the Liberal leadership on March 9, he is expected to call an early election. Wall Street Journal

Trump axes Chevron's Venezuela oil permit, reversing Biden-era deal and citing lack of electoral reforms. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would revoke a key oil license allowing Chevron to produce and export oil from Venezuela, reversing concessions made by the Biden administration to encourage free elections. Trump cited the authoritarian Venezuelan government's failure to meet the agreed conditions as the reason for canceling the license. The decision, effective March 1, aligns with longstanding opposition from Republican lawmakers, who have pushed for stricter policies on Venezuela. A Chevron spokesperson said the oil giant is aware of the developments and “conducts its business in Venezuela in compliance with all laws and regulations.” Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez condemned the White House’s move, describing it as “a harmful and inexplicable decision” and expressing concerns that it will fuel the migration of Venezuelans. Despite Chevron’s recent increase in oil exports from the country, Trump’s move signals a broader shift in U.S. foreign policy. The decision follows a visit by Trump’s envoy to Caracas, during which Venezuela agreed to accept deported nationals and release American prisoners. Politico New York Times Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal

UN chief outlines proposal to support mission in Haiti counter gang violence. According to a letter examined by The Associated Press on Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres is advocating for the opening of a U.N. office to provide fuel, drones, transportation, and other non-lethal support to a Kenyan-led international mission in Haiti, which is struggling to combat gangs in the violence-ravaged nation. In the letter to the U.N. Security Council, Guterres stressed the urgency of the situation, as gangs now control 85% of Haiti’s capital and have displaced thousands. The mission currently has only 1,000 personnel—far below its intended 2,500—and faces funding shortages. Guterres suggests using the U.N.’s peacekeeping budget to cover logistical support while maintaining voluntary donations for salaries. He also proposes strengthening Haiti’s police and improving intelligence-sharing. Meanwhile, some experts warn that pushing for elections in a country mired in chaos without first addressing security concerns could worsen the crisis. Associated Press

U.N. experts raise concerns as the Nicaraguan government consolidates complete control of state, violates rights. A panel of United Nations human rights experts has condemned the Nicaraguan government for dismantling all remaining checks and balances, “deliberately” turning the nation into an authoritarian state, and “systematically executing a strategy to cement total control of the country through severe human rights violations.” The report criticizes President Daniel Ortega and First Lady Rosario Murillo—now officially co-presidents—for using widespread human rights abuses, such as arbitrary detention, forced expulsions, and the confiscation of property, to silence dissent and maintain control. It also highlights that a recent constitutional reform has centralized power in the presidency, extended the presidential term, and secured a path for continued rule by Ortega’s family. This crackdown, which began with the violent repression of 2018 protests, has forced tens of thousands into exile. The experts have compiled a list of those they hold responsible, urging the international community to consider legal actions and targeted sanctions. Associated Press Reuters

The global democracy index: how did countries perform in 2024? The 2024 Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) shows global democracy at its lowest point since the index began in 2006. The global average dropped to 5.17, with just 6.6% of the world’s population living in a full democracy, down from 12.5% a decade ago. Norway remains the world’s most democratic country, while Afghanistan ranks last. Bangladesh saw the biggest drop following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, though a temporary government under Muhammad Yunus stabilized the country. Pakistan and Russia’s scores fell due to election rigging and repression, while France and Romania were downgraded amid political instability. The U.S. remains a flawed democracy, with concerns over President Donald Trump’s second term. Authoritarianism continues to rise, with two in five people living under autocratic rule. The next challenge is whether newly elected leaders will strengthen democracy or further erode it. The Economist

EUROPE

Indifference or Hostility? Trump’s View of European Allies Raises Alarm. European leaders are alarmed by President Donald Trump’s increasing hostility toward traditional allies, raising concerns that his administration seeks to weaken or dismantle the European Union. Trump has doubled down on past criticisms, calling the EU an economic enemy and threatening 25% tariffs on European goods. His administration has also rebuffed NATO and refused to condemn Russia’s war on Ukraine at the UN, instead aligning with authoritarian states. European leaders, including Britain’s Keir Starmer and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, are reassessing ties with Washington, fearing U.S. disengagement or outright antagonism. Analysts suggest Trump’s goal is to empower far-right parties to destabilize Europe. With the U.S. security umbrella in question, European leaders are scrambling to strengthen the continent’s independence. Some hope this is rhetorical posturing, as seen in Trump’s first term, but others see a fundamental shift that could reshape global alliances, emboldening Russia and undermining the West’s strategic cohesion. New York Times

Trump Shocks Europe into Chasing Billions for Military Buildup. Europe is scrambling to boost defense spending following President Donald Trump’s warnings that the U.S. will pull back support. The European Union is exploring ways to mobilize hundreds of billions of euros, including adjusting fiscal rules, creating joint funding mechanisms, and repurposing unused pandemic recovery funds. Germany is fast-tracking a €200 billion defense fund, while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is pushing for an “urgency mindset” to rearm Europe. However, challenges remain: European stockpiles are depleted due to support for Ukraine, and ramping up domestic arms production takes time. Some leaders are considering joint borrowing or tapping the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism, but political divisions persist. A "coalition of the willing," involving non-EU countries like the UK and Norway, is also being discussed. An emergency EU leaders’ meeting on March 6 will shape the new defense strategy, with key proposals expected by March 19. Bloomberg

Trump, Starmer at odds over security guarantees for Ukraine ahead of critical talks. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrives in Washington on Thursday seeking U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, but President Donald Trump has dismissed any firm commitments, insisting Europe should take the lead. Starmer also hopes for U.S. support in deploying a Franco-British force to Ukraine post-war, but Trump remains noncommittal. Meanwhile, Trump has pursued economic deals with Russia and Ukraine, including a revised minerals agreement with Kyiv, though it no longer includes a direct U.S. financial return. European leaders fear Trump’s stance emboldens Vladimir Putin. Starmer may offer Trump a state visit invitation to strengthen ties amid strained transatlantic relations. CNN

EU is dropping the ball on sanctions enforcement. The European Union has struggled to enforce sanctions effectively, with only 30 custodial sentences handed out across Europe since 2017 for violations, including sales of prohibited goods to Russia. A Dutch court recently sentenced a Soviet-born man for sanctions breaches, one of just 11 such sentences linked to Russia since 2017. Sanctions enforcement remains inconsistent, as national authorities, not the EU, handle implementation. Investigate Europe found that only 25 EU officials directly oversee sanctions, while the U.S. employs around 700–800 staff for similar tasks. Many member states lack transparent tracking systems, and some, like Ireland, have reported no prosecutions since 2014. A May 2025 law aims to harmonize penalties but differing national interpretations of regulations further complicate enforcement. While Poland has 275 investigations underway and Germany nearly 2,000, transparency is limited, with officials often withholding data. Better coordination and resources are needed to strengthen enforcement. EU Observer

As the US snubs Kallas, the EU struggles to stay relevant on Ukraine talks. A last-minute meeting cancellation between European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlights growing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Brussels. The EU is struggling to maintain relevance in Ukraine-related negotiations as the US shifts its approach, sidelining European input. French President Emmanuel Macron has attempted to influence US policy, warning against a peace deal that amounts to Ukraine's surrender. Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is pushing to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks US security guarantees in talks. EU Observer

France threatens to review Algeria migration pact in a row over deportations. Tensions between France and Algeria have escalated over immigration policy following a deadly knife attack in Mulhouse by an Algerian national whom France had unsuccessfully tried to deport 14 times. In response, French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a review of the 1968 immigration pact, which grants Algerians easier access to France, unless Algeria agrees to take back its deported nationals. Algeria, already angered by France’s recognition of Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara, accused Paris of following far-right orders. France is also considering broader visa restrictions, further straining diplomatic ties between the two nations. Reuters Politico EU 

Turkish police detain opposition mayor over alleged collusion, NTV says. Turkish police detained Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Koseler from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and 20 others over alleged collusion in public tenders, amid a broader crackdown on opposition figures. Prosecutors had been investigating irregularities in concerts organized by the municipality. Critics see the arrests as an attempt to weaken President Tayyip Erdogan’s rivals ahead of elections, while the government denies targeting dissent. CHP leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the detentions as politically motivated, accusing the judiciary of being used for government retaliation. Reuters

How Czech Slovak relations went south as Robert Fico turned east. Relations between Czechia and Slovakia have deteriorated under Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose pro-Moscow stance has clashed with Czechia’s strong support for Ukraine. Fico’s rhetoric and policies—including seeking Russian gas and criticizing Ukraine—have widened the divide. Prague canceled joint Cabinet meetings, and recent diplomatic exchanges have been tense. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala has accused Fico of undermining regional stability, while Fico claims Czech politicians interfere in Slovakia’s politics. With Czech opposition leader Andrej Babiš leading in polls, a shift in Czechia’s foreign policy could bring it closer to Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria, strengthening a pro-Kremlin bloc. Politico EU

.Austrian Parties Reach Deal to Form Government Without Far Right. Austria’s mainstream parties have reached a deal to form a government excluding the far-right Freedom Party after months of negotiations. The coalition, comprising the People’s Party, the Social Democrats, and the liberal NEOS, will likely be led by Christian Stocker as chancellor. Earlier talks with the Freedom Party, which finished first in the September election, collapsed despite attempts to make its leader, Herbert Kickl, chancellor. The new coalition’s 200-page plan prioritizes economic and budgetary issues but includes migration reform and a headscarf ban for young girls. The Freedom Party remains popular, polling at nearly 35 percent. New York Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel says it won’t withdraw from Gaza-Egypt border. Israel will not withdraw from the Gaza-Egypt border as required in a potential second phase of the ceasefire with Hamas, an Israeli source told CNN. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that control of the Philadelphi Corridor is crucial for security, preventing Hamas from smuggling weapons. The first phase of the ceasefire, which saw 38 hostages freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, expires Saturday. Hamas has indicated readiness for second-phase negotiations, which would require Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for all remaining living hostages. Netanyahu prefers extending the first phase to secure further hostage releases without withdrawing forces. CNN

Hamas hands over bodies of four hostages, trading for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.   In the final exchange of the first phase of the Gaza truce, Hamas delivered the bodies of four Israeli hostages to Egyptian mediators Wednesday.  Forensic tests were begun to confirm that the bodies were those of Tsachi Idan, Itzhak Elgarat, Ohad Yahalomi and Shlomo Mantzur, abducted from their kibbutz on October 7, 2023. Israel prepared to hand over several hundred Palestinian prisoners. Hamas said Thursday it was ready to start talks on the second phase. But it was not clear whether those negotiations would begin and whether more of the 59 remaining hostages could be freed.  Reuters Bloomberg BBC

UN human rights chief says Israel has shown 'unprecedented disregard for human rights' in Gaza. Volker Turk, the United Nations human rights chief, on Wednesday accused Israel of showing unprecedented disregard for human rights in its military campaign in Gaza. "Nothing justifies the appalling manner in which Israel has conducted its military operations in Gaza which consistently breached international law," Volker said while presenting a new report on the human rights situation in Gaza, the Israeli-occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem to the Human Rights Council in Geneva.   Reuters 

Trump posts AI-generated Gaza ‘Riviera’ video. U.S. President Donald Trump posted a late-night AI-generated video on social media, presenting a surreal vision of Gaza in 2025. The 30-second clip begins with scenes of destruction following Israel’s 15-month military campaign against Hamas and then transitions to a futuristic and bizarre depiction of Gaza’s transformation. The video features skyscrapers, Teslas, and children playing on the beach, alongside absurd imagery such as Hamas militants’ belly-dancing in bikinis, Elon Musk eating hummus, Trump partying in a nightclub, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sipping drinks. It also showcases a “Trump Gaza” building, golden Trump merchandise, and a gigantic Trump statue, all set to an upbeat dance track declaring: "Trump Gaza is finally here” and “Donald Trump will set you free, bringing the life for all to see, no more tunnels, no more fear.” The video has been widely condemned as disgraceful and degrading. Trump has recently proposed that the U.S. should take control of the enclave, turn it into the "Riviera of the Middle East," and expel 2.1 million Palestinians from their homes. The idea has faced strong backlash from Western and Arab leaders. Politico EU BBC CNN Time 

UN nuclear watchdog says Iran has boosted its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. A recent United Nations report reveals that Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, bringing it closer to nuclear weapons capability. Tehran now possesses enough 60% enriched uranium to produce six nuclear weapons, with a production rate fast enough to generate one bomb’s worth of fissile material per month. The report warns that Iran's growing stockpile could be converted to 90% weapons-grade material within days. Despite this escalation, Iran has signaled openness to negotiations with the United States over limiting its nuclear program, though direct talks have not occurred due to U.S. sanctions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed serious concerns, emphasizing that Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such material. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence reports suggest Tehran has not yet decided to build a nuclear bomb but is conducting research that could enable one. The Trump administration has reintroduced maximum pressure sanctions, particularly targeting Iran’s oil exports to China, and has vowed to tighten economic restrictions. Amid rising tensions, Israel has warned it may take military action if Iran moves closer to developing a bomb. Meanwhile, Iran faces regional setbacks, including the weakening of its ally Hezbollah and the loss of advanced air-defense systems in conflicts with Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly warned against negotiations with the U.S., but Iranian officials have privately indicated interest in talks. Diplomatic efforts are at a critical juncture, with Russia, the U.S., and European allies weighing their next moves. Analysts warn that the window for diplomatic resolution is closing as Iran edges closer to nuclear weapons capability. Wall Street Journal Reuters Associated Press Washington Post 

Lebanese government wins confidence vote, asserts that only armed forces should defend country in conflict. Lebanon’s new government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, won a confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday, with 95 out of 128 votes, including support from Hezbollah’s bloc, despite a government statement emphasizing that only Lebanon’s armed forces should defend the country. This marked a shift from past statements that legitimized Hezbollah’s weapons, amid growing calls for its disarmament following the recent war with Israel, which left over 4,000 dead and ended with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024. While Hezbollah initially opposed Salam, its parliamentary leader later endorsed the government, along with allied factions. Christian parties opposed to Hezbollah also backed Salam, while some legislators abstained or voted against it, citing a vague agenda. The government now faces major challenges, including post-war reconstruction and economic reform. Lawmakers urged action to secure Israel’s full withdrawal from Lebanese territory and stabilize the country. Associated Press Al Jazeera 

The City Syria’s Rebels-Turned-Rulers See as a Model for the Country’s Future. Idlib has become a model for Syria’s new rulers after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, showcasing economic activity and relative stability under the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Previously an isolated militant stronghold, the city now attracts traders and visitors with its free-market policies, low taxes, and access to Turkish imports. However, HTS also rules with repression, suppressing dissent and monopolizing key industries. While some residents’ welcome security and economic growth, others protest political oppression and economic hardship. Despite lingering divisions, HTS’s rapid military success has emboldened its leadership to expand its governance model across Syria.  Wall Street Journal

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan expresses alarm at surge in Chinese military activity as Beijing downplays drills. The Chinese defense ministry on Thursday dismissed Taiwan’s concerns over recent military drills near the island, calling them "routine" and accusing the sovereign island of “playing tricks for more attention.” Taiwan reported a surge in Chinese military activity from February 26 to February 27, detecting 45 Chinese aircraft and 14 navy ships near its territory, with exercises taking place in the sensitive Taiwan Strait. However, Taipei confirmed that no live-fire exercises were conducted. Taiwan condemned the drills as provocative and a threat to commercial routes, while its foreign ministry labeled China the "biggest troublemaker" in the region, urging international condemnation. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed America’s commitment to opposing any coercive takeover of Taiwan, though President Trump declined to comment on potential U.S. actions. The exercises come ahead of China’s annual parliamentary meeting and the 20th anniversary of its "anti-secession law," which permits military force against Taiwan in extreme cases. The island remains on high alert, preparing for potential escalations. Reuters NPR

Trump declines to answer reporter’s question about defense of Taiwan from Chinese invasion. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday declined to comment on whether Washington would prevent China from taking Taiwan by force, stating, "I don't want to ever put myself in that position." Speaking during a Cabinet meeting, Trump stressed his intention to maintain good relations with China, despite imposing tariffs on its goods. While Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, the self-governing island strongly opposes China’s sovereignty claims. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reaffirmed America’s longstanding commitment to opposing any forced change in Taiwan’s status, stating that the U.S. would act accordingly if China attempted an attack. Washington has historically followed a policy of "strategic ambiguity," not explicitly stating whether it would intervene militarily in the event of an attack. Trump's stance contrasts with that of former President Joe Biden, who had explicitly stated that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if China launched an invasion. Reuters Bloomberg

New Zealand's FM visits Beijing, discusses China's widely criticized drills. New Zealand foreign minister Winston Peters said on Wednesday that China has consented to consider concerns raised by Wellington and Australia over its lack of advance notice before conducting live-fire military drills in waters between the two countries. The exercises, which took place last week, forced passenger planes to divert mid-flight after Chinese naval vessels warned pilots of the live-fire zone. Peters discussed the issue with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting in Beijing, emphasizing the need for improved communication. Australia has been more vocal in its complaints, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong pressing China for an explanation at a recent G20 meeting. New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins also blasted China for providing only a few hours’ notice rather than the standard 12 to 24 hours needed for airlines to adjust flight paths. China’s Defense Ministry defended the drills over the weekend, insisting they complied with international law and posed no threat to aviation safety. Meanwhile, China’s state media omitted any mention of the controversy in reports on Peters’ visit. He also addressed Wellington’s concerns over China’s agreements with the Cook Islands, whose citizens hold New Zealand passports and rely on New Zealand for military and foreign affairs. The country had been angered when Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown refused to share details of a draft cooperation agreement with China before its signing. Associated Press Reuters The Guardian 

Vietnam, New Zealand pledge to bolster cooperation with strategic pact. New Zealand and Vietnam signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement on Wednesday, committing to deeper cooperation in defense, education, trade, climate change, and technology. The agreement, signed by New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon during his visit to Vietnam, marks half a century of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Over the next year, both nations will develop a joint action plan to enhance engagement across key sectors, including political, economic, and security ties. Luxon underscored Hanoi’s growing importance in Asia and highlighted the economic opportunities the partnership will create for New Zealand businesses. Reuters The Straits Times 

Thailand Deports Uyghur Detainees to China Over U.S. Objection. Thailand deported 40 Uyghur men to China on Thursday despite strong U.S. objections and warnings from human rights groups about potential torture or persecution. The men, detained in Thailand for over a decade after fleeing China’s Xinjiang region, were part of a larger group arrested in 2014. The U.N. condemned the deportation as violating international law, while China framed it as a lawful repatriation. The U.S. had urged Thailand to reconsider, but Bangkok, balancing ties with Washington and Beijing, proceeded. The move underscores China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia, despite diplomatic pressure from the Trump administration. Wall Street Journal Reuters 

AFRICA

Sudan’s civil war could be changing course, as military makes key advances to recapture Khartoum. Sudan’s devastating civil war seems to be approaching a critical stage, after nearly two years of conflict, tens of thousands of deaths, and the displacement of over 14 million people. For the first time, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are making significant advances against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), particularly in Khartoum and surrounding provinces. The military has pushed into key districts, reclaimed parts of White Nile, Gezira, and North Kordofan provinces, and broken a long RSF siege. In response, the paramilitary announced the formation of a parallel government, a move seen as an attempt to gain political legitimacy despite its military setbacks. Even if the SAF retakes Khartoum, however, the war is unlikely to end. Sudan would likely remain divided into zones controlled by the military and the RSF, leading to continued instability and violence. The RSF still holds much of western Sudan, particularly Darfur, where heavy fighting has forced aid organizations to suspend operations. The international community has reacted strongly to recent developments, with the U.S. imposing sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo over allegations of genocide. Kenya has also faced criticism for hosting the RSF’s meeting in Nairobi, with some accusing it of legitimizing the paramilitary group’s control. And despite military gains, Sudan’s humanitarian crisis is worsening. Some displaced civilians are returning to areas reclaimed by the military, but conditions remain dire, especially in Darfur, where famine has been declared. The RSF continues to attack civilian gatherings, and access to essential services like food, water, and medical care remains extremely limited. With both sides refusing to engage in serious peace talks, Sudan appears to be heading toward deeper fragmentation and prolonged conflict. Associated Press  

Pictures reveal Sudan's paramilitary operating drones from Darfur base. Satellite images examined by Reuters reveal the presence of drones and newly constructed hangars at Nyala airport in South Darfur, a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) stronghold, highlighting the continued flow of advanced weaponry into the country’s devastating conflict. The RSF is using Nyala as a base for its offensive on al-Fashir, the last Sudanese army stronghold in Darfur, and has also targeted the Zamzam camp for displaced people. The images, captured by Maxar and analyzed by the defense intelligence firm Janes, show Chinese-made CH-95 drones, which are capable of long-range surveillance and strikes. The Sudanese army has previously accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying drones to the RSF, though the UAE denies any involvement. The RSF also denies possessing modern drones, insisting that only the army has them. Both sides have engaged in airstrikes, with Sudan’s army repeatedly bombing Nyala and its airport. Satellite evidence shows at least five new strikes near the drone hangars between January 14 and February 18. The RSF recently downed a Sudanese army Ilyushin 76 cargo plane, signaling improved anti-aircraft capabilities. Reuters

UN food agency forced to pause aid in Sudan camp, warns thousands could starve. Just two days after Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) suspended its operations in the Zamzam camp for displaced in Sudan’s North Darfur, where famine has already taken hold, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) announced it would also temporarily halt food aid distribution due to escalating violence. The camp has been a frequent target of attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as they attempt to oust the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). WFP warns that without immediate aid, thousands of families could starve in the coming weeks. Reuters Associated Press UN World Food Program 

What we know about the illnesses that have sickened over 400 people and killed more than 50 in Congo. More than 50 people have died in northwestern Congo from an unknown illness since Jan. 21, with symptoms including fever, chills, body aches, and diarrhea. The outbreaks in two villages, Boloko and Bomate, remain unlinked, though one began after children ate a bat. Health officials have ruled out Ebola and Marburg but are investigating malaria, viral hemorrhagic fever, and poisoning. Limited healthcare access has worsened the crisis, with victims dying before experts arrived. The WHO urges urgent action. The outbreaks coincide with a U.S. foreign aid freeze, affecting Congo’s health sector, while experts warn of disease spillover from forests.  Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Nvidia last-quarter sales exceed expectations, indicate sustained AI tech boom. Nvidia’s earnings report for the latest quarter issued on Wednesday shows sharply rising sales, a trend that suggests no slowdown in AI chip purchases in a boom that has lasted over two years.  Nvidia said sales rose 78 percent to $39.3 billion with net income increasing 80 percent to $22 billion. Both results exceeded Wall Street’s expectations reflected in a FactSet survey of analysts.  The company’s outlook for the current quarter also surpassed expectations with a projected $43 billion in sales.  Two years ago, in February 2023, Nvidia sales were approximately $6 billion.  Nvidia’s success and growth are based on the company’s years of development before AI became a lucrative technology.  With that head start, Nvidia has been able to focus on maintaining its lead over competitors and developing next-generation products.  Wall Street Journal

How Nvidia Adapted Its Chips to Stay Ahead of an AI Industry Shift. Nvidia is adapting to shifts in the AI industry by prioritizing inference—the process of operating AI models—over training. Its new Blackwell chips feature enhanced memory and efficiency, improving inference performance significantly. The company’s latest earnings exceeded expectations, showing strong demand for its AI hardware. However, competition is rising as firms like OpenAI, Google, and China’s DeepSeek develop more efficient AI models. Startups such as Cerebras and Groq, along with major tech firms, are creating their own inference chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang remains optimistic, predicting that future AI reasoning models will demand exponentially more computing power. Wall Street Journal

The ‘Spy Sheikh’ Taking the AI World by Storm. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser, is aggressively investing in AI to position Abu Dhabi as a global tech hub. Controlling over $1.5 trillion in assets, he oversees MGX, an AI fund with over $50 billion, and has invested in OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic. While seeking U.S. partnerships, his ties to China created tensions, prompting a pivot to comply with U.S. regulations. He is also courting figures close to President Donald Trump, including Jared Kushner. Despite challenges in infrastructure and geopolitical constraints, Tahnoon’s ambition is to establish Abu Dhabi as a leader in AI. Wall Street Journal

Amazon Unveils Its First Quantum Computing Chip. Amazon unveiled its first quantum computing chip, Ocelot, aiming to reduce quantum computing errors by up to 90%. This move follows recent breakthroughs from Microsoft and Google in the race to develop practical quantum computers. Quantum error correction remains a major challenge, as qubits—quantum computing’s basic units—are highly sensitive to environmental disturbances. While Amazon's chip is still in the prototype stage, it represents a step toward scalable quantum systems. Industry experts remain cautious, noting that commercial applications are likely years away. Amazon is also expanding quantum research through its advisory program and cloud-based service, Amazon Braket. Wall Street Journal

Scheduled SpaceX launch loaded with lunar, asteroid exploration payloads.  The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket scheduled for launch Wednesday evening will be carrying three key payloads into space, including a moon-orbiting satellite, an Intuitive Machines lunar lander, and a space vehicle to explore prospects for asteroid mining.  Last year, Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus lunar lander achieved a successful descent to the moon’s surface but turned on its side when one of its legs caught an obstacle.  The new lander, Athena, also will touch down on the moon’s south pole region.  Athena is equipped with a drill and mass spectrometer that will be used to search for and measure elements such as water, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, all of which could support future crewed lunar missions.  Athena also will be carrying Grace, a Micro-Nova robot that will hop in and out of a crater in deep shadows.  Grace’s goal is to search for evidence of water and to take photographs.  In addition, Athena will transport a mini data center, weighing only 1 kg and containing 8 terabytes of SSD storage. The data device is part of a proof-of-concept mission to explore the viability of moon-based data centers, which could provide nearly unlimited storage capacity without earth-based complications and threats.  Lonestar’s CEO Christopher Stottweather, says the project will test “resilience as a service.  It’s like a whole new level of backup that we’ve never had before.”  In orbit above the moon’s surface, the Lunar Trailblazer satellite will look for indications of water presence, including the form, amount, and distribution patterns.  The asteroid probing mission will be carried out by Astroforge’s Odin spacecraft, which will use the moon’s gravity to propel it toward an asteroid called 2022 OB5, whose metallic composition makes it a possibility for future mining missions.  Astroforge CEO CEO Matt Gialich did not downplay the risks, remarking that “if this mission fails, the fault lies with me alone.  I was involved in the intimate details of every trade-off we made—and we made a lot.”   Gizmodo   IEEE Spectrum

DHS deputy secretary nominee defends disbanding of Cyber Safety Review Board. Troy Edgar, the Trump administration’s nominee for deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, told the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Tuesday that the now-disbanded Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) was “going in the wrong direction.”  Edgar, currently serving as a senior adviser to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, said that while he did not make the decision to dissolve the CSRB, it was “a great idea” and that “they need to be reconstituted.”   He noted that CISA has assumed leadership of the investigation into China’s Salt Typhoon hacking campaign that CSRB was conducting as the board is overhauled.  Rep. Mark Green, the chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, in a statement echoed Edgar’s remarks, commenting that “President Trump’s new DHS leadership should have the opportunity to decide the future of the Board. This could include appointing new members, reviewing its structure, or deciding if the Board is the best way to examine cyber intrusions.”  CyberScoop

China says Taiwan ceding semiconductor sector to U.S. as a ‘souvenir’.   A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office alleged that Taiwan is about to offer its semiconductor sector to the U.S. as a “souvenir” intended to garner political support from the Trump administration.  The remarks by the spokesperson, Zhu Fenglian, follow media reports that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is negotiating a stake in the U.S. firm, Intel.  President Donald Trump has been critical of Taiwan for displacing the U.S. semiconductor industry and has urged more U.S.-based semiconductor production.  The Chinese spokesperson said that Taiwan is concerned that TSMC could evolve into the "United States Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.”  Zhu said that Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), motivated by “selfish gain,” is exploiting Taiwan’s semiconductor sector “to get a foot in the door to relying on foreign countries to seek independence, and even give them away as souvenirs."  Zhu added that "this sort of shameless selling out of Taiwan is in actuality pandering to the United States.”  Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has affirmed that TSMC is an “important Taiwanese company” and that the Taiwan government “will work closely with industry to maintain Taiwan's leading position in the field of advanced technology.”  TSMC has not responded to a request for comment.  Reuters

Global semiconductor sector awaits ‘China shock’ in mature chip, wafer production.  An unnamed sales executive for a German chip equipment maker predicts that a “China shock” is inevitable as a result of Beijing’s moves to accelerate expansion of the country’s legacy semiconductor production. The result, the German executive said, is that prices will fall to “previously unthinkable levels.” He explained that only two years ago "a mainstream 6-inch SiC wafer from global leader Wolfspeed was $1,500, but Chinese suppliers' offerings now can be as low as $500 a piece or lower." Shares of Wolfspeed in February fell to less than $6, down more than 96 percent from their 2021 peak.  Other SiC wafer makers have registered a string of quarterly net losses since the middle of 2024.  Alongside the declines in SiC wafer prices, there is mounting concern over China’s growth in “mature” semiconductors, usually in the 28nm range, that appear in consumer devices such as smartphones, autos, and even defense gear.   China's mature chip capacity will reach 28 percent of the global market this year and some industry sources project that figure could rise to 39 percent by 2027.  Charles Shi, a Needham chip analyst, noted that “some initial signs of the China shock" are appearing.  Another analyst, Galen Zeng, said “we expect Chinese players to ramp up more aggressively than their global peers over the next few years, driven by China's localization push."  Zhao Haijun, the co-CEO of China’s leading semiconductor firm, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC), confirmed that SMIC has transitioned from the "verification" stage to the "volume production" phase for automotive grade semiconductors.  A client who purchases from both SMIC and TSMC said that SMIC has “very competitive prices and service.  In TSMC, all the best teams go to support cutting-edge chip customers, but at SMIC, you can get the best teams supporting your mature chip products."  Nikkei

DeepSeek reopens access to API after pause, other Chinese firms preview new models. Following a three-week suspension, DeepSeek is providing access to its core programming interface in a move that will promote wider adoption of the startup’s AI models.  The suspension of access in early February stemmed from capacity shortages and server resources will remain constrained in daytime operating hours.  DeepSeek’s resumption of customer “top-ups” occurred as Alibaba previewed QwQ-Max, its latest model.  In addition, ByteDance announced that it is testing a deep reasoning model with limited users.  DeepSeek announced last week that it plans to release to the public key code and data, which is described as “an unusual step” in revealing more of its core technology.  The company also said it is making public a “DeepGEMM” library used in training and inference testing of its R1 reasoning model.  Bloomberg   TechCrunch

Former senior officials appeal for sustained R&D funding to compete with China.  Chuck Hagel, defense secretary during the Obama administration, and former senior officials from the first Trump administration have written to the president and congressional leaders to advocate for increased funding for federal R&D programs.  In the letter, Hagel and former acting defense secretary Chris Miller and homeland security adviser Doug Fears, warned that China is outdistancing the U.S. in key technology sectors.  The appeal comes amid reports of firings of National Science Foundation (NSF) staff and possible significant cuts to NSF budgets.  The letter, which was also addressed to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson, highlights support for NSF's Technology, Innovation and Partnerships Directorate (TIP), which the officials view as critical to transforming research into practical applications for U.S. defense and economic interests.  More than 20 percent of the TIP staff were fired last week, according to an anonymous source.  The officials also warn that "China is making significant strategic investments in basic and applied research and positioning the country to outpace us in critical areas that could determine the outcome of future conflicts.  This is a race that we cannot afford to lose."  Reuters

How to Keep Hackers from Destroying Your Digital Life. Cybersecurity experts stress the importance of digital hygiene to prevent hacks like the one that destroyed former Disney employee Matthew Van Andel’s digital life. His password manager was compromised because it lacked two-factor authentication (2FA), allowing hackers to access and leak his credentials. Experts recommend enabling 2FA on all critical accounts and being cautious when using “remember me” options, as hackers increasingly steal session cookies to bypass security measures. Additionally, antivirus software, while helpful, is not foolproof. Running periodic scans with multiple tools can help detect hidden threats. Users should also avoid downloading unverified software to minimize risks. Wall Street Journal

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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