Open Source Report for Thursday, April 24, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, April 24, 2025

White House considers slashing China tariffs to de-escalate trade war

India blames Pakistan and downgrades ties after slaughter of civilians in Kashmir

Russian attack on Kyiv kills 8 as Trump tell Zelensky to accept U.S. peace deal

Iran must give up nuclear enrichment under any deal, Rubio says

How the US military is fortifying the ‘first island chain’ to deter Chinese ambitions

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

OPINION: Assessing the State of Our National Security. The risk of a global war – with China, Russia, and perhaps with North Korea and Iran – is higher than it’s been in decades, Dr. Michael Vickers, who served as Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence from 2011 to 2015, writes in an opinion piece for The Cipher Brief. Beijing lays claim to most of the South and East China Seas and large parts of India. Chinese military officials have floated the idea of liberating Guam and Hawaii.  China threatens the U.S. in cyber and in space, and it is expanding its nuclear arsenal.  Putin wants to bring all of Ukraine under his control and believes that time is on his side. He wants to restore a “Russian World” – Russkiy Mir – extending from Eastern Europe to Central Asia and is intensifying a covert campaign to destabilize Europe and meddle in American elections.  Vickers does not agree with the argument that some have attributed to President Donald Trump, among others, that the great powers should divide the world into spheres of influence: China in Asia, Russia in Europe, and the United States in the Western Hemisphere.  History shows, Vickers writes, that great powers only halt their aggression when stopped by force or geography.  The Cipher Brief

OPINION: America Abroad Has Never Been About Charity. It’s About Our National Interests. Former Central Intelligence Agency officer Alex Finley and retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges argue that America’s global military and diplomatic presence has never been about charity—it has always served U.S. national interests. Responding to remarks from Vice President JD Vance and others disparaging European allies, the authors counter that global alliances, military bases abroad, and shared intelligence have made the U.S. a superpower and have provided unmatched strategic and economic benefits. Finley and Hodges highlight how forward deployment, like in Europe and the Middle East, enables rapid military response and boosts U.S. influence while supporting domestic defense industries. Intelligence partnerships with allies, they emphasize, are critical to security and diplomacy. Retreating from these alliances creates power vacuums adversaries like China will exploit. The authors warn that abandoning allies undercuts both American prosperity and leadership, arguing that cooperation and global engagement are essential to maintaining U.S. strength and security. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

White House Considers Slashing China Tariffs to De-Escalate Trade War. The Trump administration is considering a big reduction in tariffs on China—potentially halving the current 145% rate—to ease trade tensions. A proposed tiered system would lower tariffs to 35% for non-strategic goods and maintain over 100% for sensitive items. While China signaled openness to talks, it warned against negotiating under pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that tariffs are unsustainable but stressed that President Donald Trump wouldn’t act unilaterally. Markets welcomed the potential de-escalation, but U.S.-China trade remains strained. No meetings between the two governments are currently scheduled, despite a Chinese delegation being in Washington for International Monetary Fund and World Bank sessions. Wall Street Journal Reuters Associated Press 

Trump’s trade war olive branch met with derision and mistrust inside China. President Trump’s recent proposal to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods was met with skepticism and scorn in China, where officials and experts dismissed it as a sign of weakness. Despite Trump’s assurances of being “very nice” in trade talks and pledges to avoid mentioning COVID-19’s origins, Beijing rejected the overture, insisting the U.S. must first lift all unilateral tariffs. Chinese officials denied any active negotiations, contradicting Trump’s claims. Analysts in China view Trump’s shift as a reaction to domestic pressure and market anxiety, with some warning the U.S. president remains unreliable. On social media, Chinese netizens mocked Trump, while state experts emphasized that any talks must occur on China’s terms. Despite China’s public posture of strength, internal voices quietly warn of economic fallout and rising social risks if tariffs remain. Behind the scenes, Beijing may be preparing for negotiations but is determined to frame any outcome as a Chinese triumph. CNN

​​Xi Is Ratcheting Up China’s Pain Threshold for a Long Fight with Trump. In response to U.S. pressure, Chinese President Xi Jinping is intensifying authoritarian controls and preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the U.S. Xi has consolidated power, boosted surveillance, and embraced “extreme scenario thinking” to stabilize the regime amid economic strain. Despite Trump’s aggressive tariffs, China remains defiant, relying on a vast system of AI-powered censorship, security spending, and political control to suppress dissent. While the tariffs could severely impact China’s export-dependent economy and provoke unrest, experts say the regime’s resilience—reinforced by decades of stability mechanisms—makes it well-equipped to endure economic pain and resist external pressure in a drawn-out geopolitical rivalry. Wall Street Journal

China’s rare-earth mineral squeeze will hit the Pentagon hard. A new report highlights a growing threat to U.S. military readiness as China tightens export controls on rare-earth minerals vital to Pentagon weapons systems. Over 78% of U.S. defense platforms rely on materials like gallium, antimony, and tungsten—many refined in China. Beijing’s new licensing restrictions on seven rare earths, following earlier bans on other critical elements, have driven up prices and exposed vulnerabilities in the defense supply chain. With 88% of critical mineral inputs passing through China, the U.S. must revive domestic processing, expand strategic stockpiles, and harness AI to identify alternative sources and suppliers to reduce this strategic dependence. Defense One

US-China fentanyl talks hang by thread amid trade war. U.S.-China talks on combating fentanyl trafficking remain fragile amid rising trade tensions. President Trump has made curbing the fentanyl crisis a top priority, demanding Beijing crack down on chemical suppliers of opioid precursors. China, in turn, insists U.S. tariffs—some exceeding 145%—must be lifted for cooperation to continue. While Beijing has offered to regulate additional chemicals, U.S. officials call the proposals inadequate and accuse China of negotiating in bad faith. Trump’s team is considering further punitive measures, including sanctions. China warns that continued pressure could derail dialogue entirely, even as the drug continues to devastate U.S. communities with little slowdown in supply. Reuters

Trump's cabinet is ready to reassert power as Musk steps back. As Elon Musk steps back from his role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), President Trump’s cabinet is poised to reassert control over federal budget and staffing decisions. Created by Trump on his first day in office, DOGE has driven aggressive cuts across the federal workforce. Musk, now shifting focus to his struggling company Tesla, has been central to the agency’s efforts but is reducing his time commitment. Cabinet secretaries, frustrated with DOGE’s reach and Musk’s authority, are expected to pursue more targeted spending cuts. Despite Musk’s reduced role, DOGE’s cost-cutting agenda is likely to continue under new leadership. Reuters

Musk leaves Washington and steps back from DOGE. Elon Musk says his job in Washington is “mostly done.” His return to Tesla and his other companies could deprive his Department of Government Efficiency of energy and clout. Cabinet and agency heads will be able to run their offices as they see fit. White House and Cabinet officers feared to say no to Musk, but lesser DOGE figures won’t command the same obedience. On the other hand, Musk felt constantly frustrated by Washington’s resistance to his ideas and enthusiasms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fired DOGE staffer Gavin Kliger and named a new IRS commissioner last week. Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent got into a loud shouting match last week in earshot of President Trump and other officials in the White House last week. Politico  Axios 

Trump's chaos is everywhere. Sound familiar? Axios describes how President Trump’s second-term administration is descending into familiar chaos, echoing his first presidency. Despite initial signs of discipline, the White House is now marked by internal feuds, contradictory messaging, and policy confusion. Key examples include turmoil at the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth, clashes over tariffs and China policy, and an angry Oval Office confrontation with Ukraine’s president. Elon Musk’s controversial role in government, DOGE’s disruptive influence, and strained foreign relations—especially on Ukraine and NATO—highlight growing dysfunction. Trump thrives in this environment, often defending embattled allies rather than dismissing them. Axios  

Voters warn Trump: MAGA, but not like this. In less than 100 days, President Trump has squandered his polling strength on the two issues most fundamental to his re-election last fall: the economy and immigration. Voters are growing wary of his methods, not his goals. Despite historically strong support on the economy and immigration, recent polls show declining approval: just 37% back his economic handling and 45% his immigration policies. A controversial deportation case has deepened public concern. Trump’s chaotic style, once tolerated for results, now risks eroding his core support. As confidence fades, the very pillars of Trump’s brand—economic strength and tough immigration—are shifting into political liabilities. Axios Reuters Axios

American state legislatures are considering at least 240 anti-China proposals. State lawmakers have introduced at least 240 anti-China proposals this year. Some of the measures target sister-city relationships between American and Chinese communities. Others bar the use of public funds to buy Chinese drones, while others bar government agencies from using Chinese apps, software or parts.  In some cases, public pension systems would be instructed not to invest in Chinese companies. Tennessee has prohibited health insurance coverage for organ transplants performed in China or with organs from China.  Associated Press

American soldier sentenced to seven years in prison for selling China sensitive defense secrets. Former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Sgt. Korbein Schultz has been sentenced to seven years in prison for selling classified military information to a foreign national likely linked to the Chinese government. Over a period of almost two years, 25-year-old Schultz provided at least 92 sensitive documents—including information on missile systems, Chinese military tactics, takeaways from the Ukraine-Russia war, and U.S. military operations—in exchange for $42,000. He pleaded guilty to multiple charges, including conspiracy and bribery. Schultz also shared operational details related to U.S. deployments and attempted to recruit another officer. Brig. Gen. Rhett R. Cox said his actions “put Army personnel at risk, placing individual gain above personal honor.” The case underscores the severe national security risks posed by breaches of classified information. New York Times South China Morning Post CBC  

U.S. Army and General Dynamics open modern facility in Arkansas to boost 155mm ammunition production. The U.S. Army, in partnership with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, has opened a new load, assemble, and pack (LAP) facility in Camden, Arkansas, to expand production of 155mm high explosive artillery shells. The facility includes two modern LAP lines and is expected to reach 50,000 projectiles per month. Part of a broader strategy to double total monthly output to 100,000, the initiative reinforces the defense industrial base amid growing global munitions demand and modern battlefield needs. Defence Industry Europe Defense News 

Northrop loses $477 million on B-21 bomber as it revamps production process. Northrop Grumman reported a $477 million Q1 loss on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber program due to rising material costs and a revamp of its production process. The loss affected all five low-rate production lots and contributed to a 46% drop in operating income compared to Q1 2024. CEO Kathy Warden said lessons learned will reduce future risk as the program transitions to full production. Northrop is also facing cost overruns on its Sentinel ICBM project and working with the Air Force to manage expenses. Defense News

Gabbard refers intelligence leaks to Justice for investigation.  Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard wrote on X Wednesday that she had made two criminal referrals to the Justice Department over alleged leaks of classified information. She said a third referral is "on its way." She said that one of the matters referred to Justice was the "recent illegal leak to the Washington Post." She didn’t say what the other two alleged leaks involved.  Last month, Gabbard wrote on X that she was looking into a "leaker within the IC sharing information on Israel / Iran with the Washington Post."   "Politicization of our intelligence and leaking classified information puts our nation's security at risk and must end,” Gabbard wrote Wednesday. “Those who leak classified information will be found and held accountable to the fullest extent of the law…These deep-state criminals leaked classified information for partisan political purposes to undermine POTUS' agenda."  Axios The Hill  X

Department of Justice charges alleged high-ranking Tren de Aragua gang member with terrorism. The Justice Department has charged Jose Enrique Martinez Florez, a 24-year-old alleged leader of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), with terrorism and drug trafficking offenses. This marks the Trump administration’s first terrorism case against the gang. Florez, arrested in Bogotá, Colombia, allegedly trafficked cocaine to fund TdA’s operations. Attorney General Pam Bondi called the group a “structured terrorist organization,” not just a street gang. The charges are part of a broader crackdown, including mass deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, now facing legal challenges. The Hill 

Days before Canada’s election, Trump insists that Canada needs the US more than the US needs it. Days before Canada’s election, President Trump reignited controversy by claiming Canada “would cease to exist” without U.S. trade, dismissing the need for Canadian autos and oil. He floated raising tariffs on Canadian cars and reiterated that the U.S. doesn't need Canadian goods. Trump’s remarks, including past threats to make Canada the 51st state, have fueled a nationalist backlash and boosted support for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who argues that internal Canadian trade reform can offset U.S. economic pressure. Associated Press CBC 

Trump says 25 percent tariff on cars made in Canada could go up. President Trump warned that U.S. tariffs on Canadian autos could rise, despite ongoing trade talks. He criticized Canada’s role in the U.S. auto industry and repeated claims that the U.S. doesn’t need Canada, even suggesting it become a U.S. state. Globe and Mail

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian missiles and drones target Kyiv in the biggest attack in months; 8 killed, at least 77 injured. A Russian overnight drone and missile assault on Kyiv early Thursday killed eight people and injured over 70, including six children, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia launched 70 missiles and 145 drones toward Ukraine, mainly targeting the capital, Ukraine’s Air Force said.  The heaviest damage occurred in the Sviatoshynskyi district, where an apartment building was destroyed. Emergency crews continued to search for people trapped under rubble throughout the day, with mobile phones heard ringing beneath the debris. Rescue operations were active at 13 sites across the capital, battling 40 fires caused by the attack. Ukraine condemned the strike, calling it proof that Russia remains the primary obstacle to peace. Russia has not commented on the attack. Explosions rocked the capital around 1 a.m. and 4 a.m., damaging residential and commercial buildings in multiple districts.  CNN producers in Kyiv heard air raid sirens blasting across the city for around six hours in the early hours of Thursday morning. Images provided by the emergency services showed buildings engulfed in flames at some of the sites struck in the attacks. At least 42 people were hospitalized, and two children remained missing as rescue operations continued. Fires and debris were reported citywide. Additional Russian strikes targeted other regions across Ukraine. Poland scrambled jets in response to the threat near its border. Despite U.S.-backed ceasefire proposals, Russia has yet to agree to a truce, continuing its assault on Ukrainian cities. Reuters Kyiv Independent Reuters  CNN Financial Times

Zelensky cuts short South African trip after massive Russian strike on Kyiv kills 8. President Volodymyr Zelensky flew back to Kyiv on Thursday after meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. The Ukrainian leader had hoped to recruit South African support in efforts to end his country’s war with Russia, now in its fourth year.  But the biggest strike on Ukraine’s capital in months forced Zelensky to hurry home. “It is extremely important that everyone around the world sees and understands what is really happening” he said, adding that Ukraine would contact its international partners to strengthen air defenses. “The strikes must be stopped immediately and unconditionally,” he said. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said the Kyiv attack was “yet another appalling violation of international humanitarian law.” In a statement, it said: “Civilians must never be targets. This senseless use of force must stop.” Zelensky arrived in South Africa late Wednesday and met with Ramaphosa. South Africa, maintaining ties with Russia, has taken a neutral stance since the war began in 2022. Ramaphosa emphasized the meeting would “support efforts to bring lasting peace.” It marked the first visit by a Ukrainian president to South Africa. Reuters Kyiv Independent Associated Press CNN

Trump Blames Zelensky as Ukraine Peace Talks Stumble. Peace talks over Ukraine have hit a critical impasse as President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for stalling negotiations by rejecting a U.S.-proposed peace plan. Trump lashed out Wednesday on Truth Social, saying Zelensky “has nothing to boast about” and warned: “He can have Peace, or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country.” He called Zelensky’s refusal to cede Crimea “very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia,” adding, “We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE.” The U.S. proposal would freeze the war along current lines and recognize Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, which Ukraine flatly rejected as unconstitutional. Kyiv insists on an unconditional ceasefire before final talks, while Trump threatens to pull the U.S. from the process. Vice President JD Vance reinforced this ultimatum, urging both sides to say “yes” or risk America walking away. Wall Street Journal Associated PressReuters Financial Times Washington Post Axios Politico CNN Bloomberg Reuters

ANALYSIS–Trump Pressures Ukraine to Accept a Peace Plan That Sharply Favors Russia. President Trump is pressuring Ukraine to accept a U.S.-backed peace plan that would freeze the conflict along current front lines, effectively granting Russia all occupied territory and blocking Ukraine from NATO membership. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal, calling it a violation of Ukraine’s Constitution. Trump responded by accusing Zelensky of prolonging the war and hinted the U.S. might withdraw support if Ukraine refuses. The plan marks a major shift in U.S. policy, offering Russia concessions, including potential recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. European allies, supportive of Kyiv, view the move as a betrayal, accusing Trump of pivoting toward Moscow. The withdrawal of key U.S. diplomats from peace talks and discussions about lifting sanctions reinforce fears that the administration is sidelining Ukraine in favor of engagement with Russia—raising concerns about the future of Western unity and the credibility of U.S. commitments to its partners. New York Times

ANALYSIS–Zelensky’s Red Line on Crimea Tied to Political Realities at Home. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s firm rejection of the Trump administration’s peace plan—offering to end the war in exchange for recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea—reflects deep political and societal realities in Ukraine. Acknowledging Russia's 2014 annexation would violate Ukraine’s Constitution and spark outrage among citizens, politicians, and Crimean Tatars. Zelensky insists Crimea is non-negotiable, despite military and diplomatic pressure. While some Ukrainian officials are open to freezing the frontline and negotiating a ceasefire, Crimea remains a red line, threatening to derail peace talks. The U.S. and European Union previously opposed recognizing the seizure, citing international law and border integrity principles. New York Times

Europeans fear growing rift with US over Ukraine talks. President Donald Trump’s proposal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea as part of a Ukraine peace deal has alarmed European leaders, raising fears of a widening rift with Washington and a potential NATO crisis. The deal, presented as “take-it-or-leave-it,” is seen as a major concession to Moscow. Trump lashed out at President Volodymyr Zelensky for rejecting it, warning, “He can have Peace or… lose the whole Country.” European officials remain resolute: “Crimea is Ukraine,” declared European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stressed, “Ukraine is ready to negotiate — but not to surrender.” Financial Times

ANALYSIS–How the US lost patience with talks to end the war in Ukraine. In recent weeks, U.S. patience with Ukraine peace talks has frayed. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered an ultimatum in Paris last week: a one-page deal recognizing Russian control of Crimea, freezing the war along current front lines, barring Ukraine from NATO, and rolling back U.S. sanctions on Russia. Kyiv balked, unwilling to amend its constitution or cede territory. Trump lashed out, accusing President Volodymyr Zelensky of having “no cards to play.” As talks collapsed, U.S. officials hinted ominously: if Ukraine refuses the deal, Washington may cut off military aid — possibly for good. The Times

If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say. The proposed U.S. peace plan — which includes recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and banning Ukraine from NATO — has sparked widespread condemnation. Critics warn it would violate international law, undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, and reward Russia’s aggression without demanding concessions in return. Experts fear this could set a dangerous precedent, encouraging future land grabs by authoritarian regimes worldwide. The plan would damage U.S. global leadership, alienate allies, and likely face rejection in Ukraine, where both public opinion and constitutional law prohibit territorial concessions. European nations may step up support, but the U.S. risks losing credibility and moral authority. Kyiv Independent

Kremlin says sides in Ukraine peace talks still need to narrow their differences. The Kremlin said peace talks over Ukraine remain stalled due to significant unresolved differences among negotiating parties. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted there are “a lot of nuances” to be worked out, and that Russia continues discussions with the U.S. but not directly with Ukraine or European countries. Talks were downgraded after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a planned trip to London, following President Trump’s warning that Washington may exit the mediation process. Peskov dismissed media leaks about peace proposals as “fake news” and stressed that meaningful dialogue must continue discreetly. Putin remains open to talks. Reuters

Ukraine has no great options if Trump recognizes Crimea as Russian. Ukraine faces mounting pressure as the Trump administration pushes a peace deal that includes U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian territory—an idea Kyiv legally and politically cannot accept. Ukrainian lawmakers warn this would violate the Constitution and trigger domestic unrest. Despite having agreed to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine has seen no reciprocal moves from Russia, yet Washington continues pressing Kyiv to concede. Analysts argue the U.S. plan favors Moscow, lacks security guarantees, and undermines trust in U.S. leadership. If the U.S. withdraws from talks, Ukraine may be left to rely primarily on European support, with limited capacity to fill the gap. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine insists on unconditional ceasefire at London peace talks. Ukrainian officials met with U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg and European leaders in London to push for peace. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stressed Ukraine’s desire to end the war, while Kyiv reiterated it won’t discuss territorial concessions without a full Russian ceasefire. The summit was downgraded after U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Rubio, withdrew. Ukraine rejected Trump’s reported peace plan recognizing Crimea as Russian, and Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to its territorial integrity. Despite Trump’s optimism, Russia continues offensive actions, ignoring Ukraine’s proposed 30-day ceasefire. Kyiv Independent

Rubio skeptical Ukraine-Russia peace deal will happen this week. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed doubt that a Ukraine-Russia peace deal could be finalized this week, despite President Trump’s optimism. Speaking on April 23, Rubio said he's “hopeful” for a resolution but stressed the war lacks a military solution. He acknowledged improved U.S.-Russia communication after a three-year freeze and emphasized that both Ukraine and Russia must show willingness to compromise. Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff skipped key London peace talks, downgrading their diplomatic significance. Kyiv Independent

Polish foreign minister denounces Russian aggression: ‘Don’t you have enough land?’ In a forceful speech to Poland’s parliament on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski condemned Russian aggression, asking rhetorically, “Don’t you have enough land? Eleven time zones and still not enough?” He warned of the threat to Poland and Europe’s security and criticized the weakening of Western unity. Without naming President Donald Trump, Sikorski rejected any concessions to Moscow, saying, “You will never rule here again, neither in Kyiv, nor in Vilnius, nor in Riga, nor in Tallinn, nor in Chisinau.” He emphasized that Vladimir Putin’s war, intended to last three days, has dragged on with heavy Russian losses and no strategic victory. Associated Press

UK bans export of ‘killer’ video games controllers to Russia. The U.K. has imposed 150 new trade sanctions on Russia, focusing on cutting off advanced technology aiding its war effort. The measures ban exports of gaming console controllers, reportedly used to pilot drones in Ukraine, as well as software for oil and gas exploration. The package also restricts chemicals, electronics, and machinery deemed vital to Russia’s defense and energy sectors. U.K. officials say the move aims to choke Russia’s war machine and prevent British innovation from fueling its aggression. Politico EU

Ukrainian strike damages Russian drone production site in Tatarstan, Kyiv says. Ukraine struck a Russian drone production facility in Tatarstan, damaging the final assembly line, Ukraine’s military said Wednesday. The site reportedly produced up to 300 drones daily. Explosions were confirmed near the plant, over 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Russia has not verified the claim; local reports noted downed drones nearby. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, under missile attack, mayor says. Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, was coming under a missile attack early on Thursday, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said on Telegram. He said several explosions had been heard in the city, a frequent target of Russian strikes. Reuters

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive for Wednesday, April 23. The U.S. reportedly offered Ukraine a seven-point peace proposal recognizing Russian control over Crimea and parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, lifting sanctions, and fostering U.S.-Russia economic ties—marking a sharp shift in President Donald Trump’s Ukraine strategy. Ukraine reiterated support for the earlier March 2025 U.S. ceasefire proposal and emphasized that a complete ceasefire must precede peace negotiations. Russia dismissed the U.S. proposal, reaffirming its refusal to cede any occupied Ukrainian territory or accept European peacekeepers. High-level talks on Ukraine’s future were held in London on April 23, but multilateral ministerial meetings were canceled after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio withdrew. Ukraine and the U.S. are progressing toward a bilateral mineral agreement, with legal consultations ongoing and a potential signing date soon. Ukraine likely conducted a successful drone strike on Russia’s Shahed drone production facility in Tatarstan. Russia continues to use banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Toretsk; Russian forces made gains in Kursk Oblast and areas near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Longtime U.S. allies say they have ways to fight back against Trump, and they’ll use them. European and Canadian leaders are preparing aggressive countermeasures in response to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and demands for higher NATO spending. Longtime allies are considering diversifying away from U.S. military equipment, imposing counter-tariffs, limiting tech and energy ties, and even leveraging supply chains. Poland and Germany, traditionally close to Washington, are rethinking procurement strategies, while Canada warned of halting electricity exports. Trump’s unpredictable moves — including using weapons aid as leverage — have shaken confidence in U.S. reliability. Many European leaders now seek strategic independence, defense self-sufficiency, and trade realignment. Politico 

Italy harbors doubts about hitting 2 percent NATO target. Italy is facing internal doubts about its ability to meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target by reclassifying civil expenditures, despite publicly claiming it can do so without cutting essential services. Officials fear the European Union and NATO may reject this “creative accounting,” especially under pressure from the Trump administration, which is urging allies to spend up to 5% of GDP. Defense spending remains politically unpopular in Italy, which is also grappling with budget constraints and post-pandemic austerity measures. Politico EU 

EU to float ban on new Russian energy contracts. The European Commission plans to propose a ban on new oil and gas contracts with Russia as part of a broader strategy to end reliance on Russian energy by 2027. Set for release on May 6, the plan may include legal measures to prevent new fossil fuel deals and allow companies to break existing contracts without penalties. Although European Union dependence on Russian energy has dropped since 2022, imports of liquefied natural gas and uranium persist. Some member states, notably Slovakia and Hungary, resist tougher sanctions, complicating the unanimous approval needed for new measures. Politico EU

White House debates lifting sanctions on Russian energy assets, Nord Stream. The White House is debating whether to lift sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 and other energy assets as part of broader talks to end the war in Ukraine. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly supports the move, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others oppose it, citing potential harm to U.S. energy producers. Lifting sanctions could boost Russia financially and politically but may face resistance from the European Union. The White House denies such talks are underway, calling reports “fictitious.” Politico

China to lift sanctions on European lawmakers in bid to revive trade deal with EU. China is preparing to lift sanctions on several European Parliament members in a bid to revive its stalled investment deal with the European Union, as U.S. tariffs of 145% sharply restrict Chinese access to the American market. The sanctions, imposed in 2021 in response to EU criticism of China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims, had blocked the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). While talks are in the final stages, EU officials remain skeptical about reviving the CAI, calling it outdated. The move signals China’s intent to improve ties with Brussels amid rising global trade tensions. EU sanctions on Chinese entities remain in place. Financial Times South China Morning Post Bloomberg

Time was right for U.S. big tech penalties, EU competition chief says. European Union competition chief Teresa Ribera defended the timing of major fines against Apple (€500M) and Meta (€200M), dismissing claims that Brussels delayed action to avoid provoking U.S. President Trump’s trade retaliation. Ribera insisted the penalties, issued under the Digital Markets Act, were based on evidence and not influenced by political pressure. Speaking from Mexico, she emphasized the need to uphold fair competition and support innovation. Meta criticized the fines as unfair “tariffs,” while Apple said it was being unfairly targeted. Both companies plan to appeal. Ribera noted their complaints lack merit, especially given similar scrutiny by U.S. regulators. Politico EU

Russia stops 21 British politicians from entering the country. The Kremlin on Wednesday banned 21 British lawmakers from entering the country, accusing the UK of pursuing a confrontational and “anti-Russian” agenda. The list includes members from various parties, such as Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, and the DUP. Moscow cited “hostile statements” and “unfounded accusations” by these MPs as the reason for the ban. Several of the sanctioned lawmakers responded defiantly, calling the sanctions a sign they had struck a nerve with the Kremlin. A labour party MP asserted that “being targeted by this thuggish, criminal regime is a compliment.” The Russian foreign ministry also alleged that London is attempting to undercut Moscow by “demonizing” the nation and “actively fabricating anti-Russian narratives.” The move coincided with a peace conference on Ukraine held in London, attended by senior Ukrainian, U.S., and European officials. The UK remains a strong supporter of Ukraine, having sanctioned over 2,000 Russian-linked individuals and frozen £25 billion in Russian assets since the war began. Politico EU Reuters  

Russians are still traveling around Europe despite sanctions. Not everyone’s happy about it. Despite European Union sanctions and visa bans, many Russians continue to travel across Europe by obtaining Schengen visas through more permissive countries like Italy, France, or Spain. While several nations—including Latvia, Finland, and the Czech Republic—have banned nearly all Russian tourist visas, once inside the Schengen Zone, travelers can move freely. Agencies in Russia are helping circumvent bans by arranging visas through third countries. This has sparked political tensions, with some EU leaders calling for broader bans, citing security concerns and frustration over perceived loopholes in enforcement, as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. CNN

Tensions rise in Bosnia after reports of failed arrest attempt of Serb separatist leader.  Tensions in Bosnia escalated after Bosnian security agents reportedly tried to arrest pro-Russian Serb leader Milorad Dodik but were blocked by his armed police. Dodik, facing legal action for separatist activities, remains defiant, claiming state police lack authority in Republika Srpska. The incident deepens divisions in the fragile, post-war country. Associated Press Euronews

Danish king will visit Greenland to meet with its new leader. King Frederik X of Denmark will visit Greenland next week to meet its new prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, amid rising tensions over U.S. interest in the island. The trip follows U.S. Vice President JD Vance's visit and President Trump’s remarks about acquiring Greenland. Greenlandic leaders reaffirmed their push for self-determination. Associated Press

Germany Always Willing to Spend in ‘Bad Times,’ Kukies Says. German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies emphasized that Germany is prepared to spend heavily during economic downturns, saying, “in bad times... we have been able to spend a lot of money to fix problems.” Speaking at the Semafor World Economy Summit, Kukies addressed recession fears as U.S. tariffs weigh on Germany’s economy. The private sector shrank in April, and forecasts for 2025 growth may be cut to zero, marking a third consecutive year without expansion. Kukies is expected to leave his post as a new coalition government takes office next month. Bloomberg 

Germany halts Afghan refugee admission flights pending new government decision. Germany has suspended Afghan refugee admission flights for two weeks pending a decision by the incoming government. The move follows public backlash over migration and recent attacks. Around 2,600 approved refugees, including 350 former local staff, await relocation in Pakistan. Legal experts warn halting these flights could endanger lives under Taliban rule. Reuters 

Starmer Sees Off UK Carrier Group for Eight-Month Pacific Tour. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer saw off the HMS Prince of Wales as it embarked on an eight-month Indo-Pacific deployment, signaling Britain’s intent to bolster regional security and revive its maritime stature. Accompanied by allied vessels, the mission spans 30 countries and includes joint exercises with partners like Japan and Australia. Starmer called the deployment a “message of strength” and pledged to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. The initiative reflects growing concern over China’s naval power and commitment to global stability. Bloomberg Naval News The Aviationist  

Romanian centrist presidency candidate wants to spend more on defense, keep backing Ukraine. Romanian presidential candidate Nicușor Dan, a pro-European independent and current Bucharest mayor, supports increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030 and continuing strong backing for Ukraine. He argues Ukraine’s war is vital to Romania and Moldova’s security. Running on an anti-corruption platform, Dan is competing closely with centrist and nationalist candidates to challenge far-right frontrunner George Simion. The election, rescheduled after a December cancellation amid Russian meddling allegations, is closely watched. Dan also emphasized maintaining U.S. troop presence at Romania’s Kogalniceanu base, promoting NATO cooperation, and supporting Ukrainian grain exports while protecting Romanian farmers' interests. Reuters

European Commission blacklists lobby groups tied to Huawei. The European Commission has blacklisted all lobby groups and trade associations linked to Huawei, extending a prior ban on direct contact with the Chinese tech giant. This follows a Belgian-led corruption investigation implicating Huawei officials in bribery, money laundering, and organized crime. At least eight people have been charged, prompting several EU industry groups to suspend or review ties with Huawei. The Commission now bars any intermediaries acting on Huawei's behalf from engaging with its staff to influence policy. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran must give up nuclear enrichment under any deal, Rubio says. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that any nuclear deal with Iran must prohibit it from enriching uranium, allowing only imports for peaceful civilian use. Iran, however, insists that “zero enrichment” is unacceptable, highlighting a major sticking point ahead of renewed nuclear talks in Oman on Saturday. The U.S. fears Iran could weaponize its nuclear program, while Tehran maintains its efforts are purely civilian. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported Iran is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels (60%), which Western officials argue is unnecessary for civilian purposes and signals potential military intent, further complicating diplomatic efforts to revive a deal. Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel  

Iran strengthening underground nuclear sites as talks with US progress, report says. Iran is building a heavily fortified security perimeter around two underground tunnel complexes connected to its main nuclear site, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security. These tunnels, which are being constructed beneath Mount Kolang Gaz La, may soon be operational and could house advanced centrifuges or enriched uranium, raising alarms among Western powers. Tehran has denied international inspectors access to the tunnels, increasing suspicions about their potential use for undeclared nuclear activities. The development comes as Washington and Tehran prepare for more talks on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment, while Israel and the U.S. continue to warn of possible military action. The Islamic Republic, maintaining its right to peaceful nuclear technology, has rejected demands to dismantle its nuclear program. Reuters Institute for Science and International Security 

Senator urges Trump to ‘strike and destroy’ Iranian nuclear facilities. Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has urged President Donald Trump to launch military strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, arguing that talks with the Iranian regime are pointless given its long history of regional destabilization. “You’re never going to be able to negotiate with that kind of regime,” he asserted Wednesday, adding that “now we have an incredible window, I believe, to do that.” His comments come as the Trump administration approaches the end of a two-month timeline to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, with a third round of talks scheduled soon. Fetterman dismissed warnings that such a strike could lead to a regional war and harshly criticized Iranian proxy groups Hezbollah and Hamas, calling the latter a “bunch of tunnel rats with junkie rockets in the back of a Toyota truck.” He also expressed confusion over Trump’s willingness to negotiate, saying diplomacy should be replaced with military force and Israeli involvement. Fetterman remains a vocal Democratic supporter of Israel in its ongoing regional conflicts. The Hill 

Iran’s exiled ‘crown prince’ advocates for mass labor strikes to end powerful regime. Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, is urging Western governments to support a campaign of peaceful civil resistance inside Iran through the creation of a “strike fund” using frozen Iranian assets. He argues that organized labor strikes could paralyze the regime and lead to its collapse, avoiding the need for military action. Pahlavi believes Trump’s nuclear negotiations with Tehran will fail, and instead, the U.S. and Europe should back internal opposition by funding protests, providing secure communications tools like Starlink, and supporting dissent. “Give the people of Iran a chance, let them be the agent of change, before we have to resort to other measures that are not wanted,” he argued. He claims he doesn’t seek power but is willing to serve as a transitional leader to help draft a democratic constitution. However, some critics question his relevance and leadership potential, citing past associations with the monarchy and a lack of recent accomplishments. Despite this, Pahlavi insists on a future Iran rooted in secular democracy, human rights, and national unity. Politico

Israeli strike on Gaza shelter kills 23; another 6 killed in separate strikes. An overnight Israeli airstrike on a Gaza City school-turned-shelter killed 23 people, setting tents ablaze and reportedly burning victims alive, officials said Wednesday. Six more were killed elsewhere, including twin 5-year-old girls. Arab mediators are pushing a proposal for a long-term truce with Hamas and the release of all remaining hostages. France, Germany, and Britain strongly criticized Israel’s blockade on Gaza imports. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, using harsh language toward Hamas, urged them to release hostages to remove Israel’s justification for continuing the war. Hamas rejected Abbas’ remarks, questioning his legitimacy as a leader.   Israel claiming militants were operating from the site. The strike also hit a children’s hospital, damaging its ICU and power supply. Since the collapse of a ceasefire in March, over 1,600 Palestinians have been killed. Associated Press Reuters

Egypt, Qatar developing peace proposal to end the Gaza war. Egypt and Qatar are developing a peace proposal to end the Gaza war that includes a five-to-seven-year truce, complete Israeli withdrawal, and the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages. Hamas has shown openness to this plan if backed by international guarantors like Russia or the UN. The proposed governance of Gaza would involve an independent technocratic committee. Israel, backed by the U.S. and the Trump administration, rejects any deal allowing Hamas to retain power, insisting the group be destroyed or exiled. Meanwhile, Israel’s military operations and blockade continue, drawing sharp criticism from France, Germany, and Britain, who labeled the aid restrictions “intolerable.” Humanitarian agencies report worsening conditions in Gaza, where over 51,000 Palestinians have died since the war began in October 2023. Despite mediation efforts and a recent Hamas delegation to Cairo, deep mistrust and opposing conditions continue to stall a resolution. Trump reportedly hopes to finalize a deal before visiting the region in May. Associated Press

Palestinians might appoint a vice president to serve under the aging Abbas. Here’s why it matters. Senior Palestinian officials are meeting to vote on creating a vice presidency under 89-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas, a move seen as preparation for succession. Abbas, increasingly sidelined during the war in Gaza, used harsh rhetoric against Hamas to bolster his relevance. The new role would likely go to Hussein al-Sheikh, a close Abbas ally. The position, once created, could help stabilize leadership in the Palestinian Authority, which faces widespread unpopularity and pressure for reform. Other potential successors include security chief Majed Faraj, Fatah figure Jibril Rajoub, exiled rival Mohammed Dahlan, and imprisoned leader Marwan Barghouti. The move comes as Western nations push for a reformed Palestinian Authority to play a role in postwar Gaza, though Israel remains opposed. Abbas has ruled without elections since 2009, citing Hamas divisions and Israeli obstacles. His successor could shape the future of Palestinian governance amid ongoing regional instability and stalled peace talks. Associated Press 

Jordan bans the Muslim Brotherhood in a move that threatens its largest opposition party. Jordan has announced a full ban on the Muslim Brotherhood, citing links to a recent security plot involving weapons, explosives, and drone plans. The move follows years of tension, including a 2020 court ruling to disband the group and closure of its Amman headquarters. Authorities allege members tried to destroy documents and were tied to an explosives lab. The crackdown aligns Jordan with countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which view the Brotherhood as a threat to regional stability. New York Times Associated Press Reuters 

U.S. politician ‘cautiously optimistic’ following meeting with Syria’s new leader. Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) expressed cautious optimism following a visit to Damascus last week, where he met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. On this unofficial trip, Mills discussed easing U.S. sanctions in exchange for commitments from Syria, including the destruction of any remaining chemical weapons, cooperation on counterterrorism, and assurances to Israel. The trip, taken with Syrian American advocates pushing to lift sanctions, aimed to explore possibilities for rebuilding the war-torn nation’s economy with foreign investment, currently blocked by U.S. restrictions. The Florida lawmaker told Bloomberg that he plans to brief President Trump and national security adviser Mike Waltz and deliver a letter from al-Sharaa. The visit came shortly after Washington announced a partial troop withdrawal from Syria. Bloomberg The Hill 

Iraq invites new Syrian president to Arab League summit, fueling political division. Iraq’s formal invitation to new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad has sparked political tensions, especially among Shiite factions who have not forgotten al-Sharaa’s past as a Sunni Islamist militant. Al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, led a rebel offensive that ousted Bashar Assad and was once linked to al-Qaida. He still faces a terrorism-related arrest warrant in Iraq. While some Sunni politicians support his inclusion as a step toward regional diplomacy, Shiite groups aligned with Iran strongly oppose it, citing his violent past and the sacrifices of Iraqi militias who fought for Assad. The controversy underscores Baghdad’s internal divisions and complicates its efforts to act as a regional mediator. The Iraqi government has yet to comment publicly, and while the warrant remains valid, it may not prevent al-Sharaa from attending the summit. Associated Press  

ASIA & OCEANIA

India Blames Pakistan After Slaughter of Civilians in Kashmir. India has launched a series of retaliatory actions against Pakistan following the massacre of 26 civilians in Kashmir, nearly all of them Hindus. The attack—carried out by militants in a tourist area—has been described as the worst on civilians in years. Though India has not officially named a group, officials suggest Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba may be behind it, using a proxy, the Resistance Front. In response, India suspended a key water treaty, shut down a major land border, downgraded diplomatic ties, and expelled Pakistani military advisors. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under intense domestic pressure, warned of further action. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh stated India will go after both the perpetrators and those who "draw such conspiracies." Pakistan denied involvement and blamed “homegrown” actors, but tensions are escalating, raising fears of a renewed cross-border conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The attack has also shattered Modi’s narrative that militancy in Kashmir is under control. New York Times Reuters Associated Press BBC France 24 Bloomberg 

India will pursue perpetrators of Kashmir attack to ‘ends of earth,’ Modi says. Following a deadly militant attack that killed 26 tourists in Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to relentlessly pursue the perpetrators and their backers. “We will pursue them to the ends of the earth,” Modi declared during a speech on Thursday in Bihar, calling on the nation to mourn the victims. Two of the suspected attackers have been identified as Pakistani nationals. In response, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, closed its land border with Pakistan, and is reducing its diplomatic staff in Islamabad. Modi has also convened an all-party meeting to discuss the government's next steps. Reuters Reuters 

Pakistan Braces for Strike by India. Pakistan is bracing for potential Indian military retaliation after a deadly militant attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed over two dozen civilians. While Islamabad denies any involvement, Indian officials have suspended a key water treaty and hinted at punitive action. The situation evokes the 2019 standoff, when a suicide bombing in Pulwama killed 40 Indian troops and triggered India’s airstrike on a militant camp in Balakot, Pakistan. In response, Pakistan shot down an Indian MiG-21 and captured pilot Abhinandan Varthaman—later returned in a gesture of de-escalation. “We served tea to Abhinandan in 2019,” quipped retired Brig. Gen. Ahmed Saeed Minhas. “This time, we might even offer him biscuits.” Analysts warn this crisis could prove more volatile, with one senior official noting, “A fractured global order and India’s hyperventilating media make it harder for (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi to act rationally.” Both nations remain on high alert, with military movements closely watched. New York Times 

What is The Resistance Front, the militant group linked to Pahalgam attack? The Resistance Front (TRF), also known as Kashmir Resistance, claimed responsibility for the deadly April 23 attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir. Emerging in 2019, TRF is considered a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based militant group linked to the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Indian officials say TRF operates under LeT’s direction, facilitating recruitment, smuggling, and targeted killings in Jammu and Kashmir. Though TRF hasn’t been linked to major attacks until now, it's used online platforms to issue threats and promote violence. Pakistan denies backing TRF, insisting its support for Kashmir is strictly moral and diplomatic. Reuters

Indian-controlled Kashmir has been the scene of many violent attacks in past decades. The April 2025 attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, where 26 tourists were killed, is the deadliest in years and follows a long history of violence in the region. Similar incidents include the 2000 Chittisinghpora massacre (36 Sikhs killed), August 2000 Amarnath Yatra attack (32 Hindus killed), the 2001 state legislature bombing (36 killed), and the 2002 Kaluchak attack (36 killed). Other major attacks include the 2003 Nadimarg massacre (24 Hindus), the 2016 Uri army base attack (19 soldiers), the 2019 Pulwama bombing (40 paramilitary killed), and the June 2024 bus shooting (9 civilians killed). Associated Press

China Signals Openness to U.S. Trade Talks—but Not Under Duress. China signaled openness to renewed trade talks with the U.S. but warned it won’t negotiate under pressure or threats. The move follows President Trump’s comments that he’s willing to cut tariffs—currently as high as 145%—and isn’t looking to “play hardball” with Beijing. While both sides appear to be seeking an off-ramp from escalating tensions, mutual distrust and past provocations remain obstacles. Beijing is emphasizing respect and equality as prerequisites for talks, while strengthening regional ties and positioning itself as a defender of global trade amid mounting international skepticism about Chinese exports. Markets responded positively to the shift in tone. Wall Street Journal

China denies rumors of US trade talks, says claims have ‘no factual basis’. China’s Ministry of Commerce denied reports of trade talks with the U.S., calling claims of bilateral negotiations “without factual basis.” Spokesman He Yadong urged the U.S. to drop unilateral tariffs and engage in equal dialogue. Meanwhile, President Trump hinted at possible discussions, saying, “Maybe we’ll make a special deal,” while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the tariff standoff—now as high as 145%—had peaked and predicted a near-term de-escalation, describing the current situation as a mutual “embargo.” South China Morning Post 

Chinese military says it scrambled forces, monitored U.S. warship transiting Taiwan Strait. The Chinese military on Thursday claimed that it deployed naval and air forces to observe and warn an American guided missile destroyer as it moved through the sensitive waters of the Taiwan Strait the day before. Reuters 

How the US military is fortifying the ‘first island chain’ to deter Chinese ambitions. The recent deployment of American B-1B bombers to Japan signals Washington’s broader strategy to reinforce military presence in the "first island chain"—a defense line stretching from Okinawa through Taiwan to the Philippines—aimed at countering China’s regional ambitions, especially around Taiwan. This deployment, part of the U.S. Bomber Task Force program, complements other moves like stationing Marine units with advanced missile systems and deploying MQ-4C Triton drones and submarines to enhance surveillance and strike capabilities. These actions align with the Pentagon’s Pacific Deterrence Initiative and aim to challenge China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems near its coast. Analysts say the U.S. is developing a containment strategy, prioritizing the Indo-Pacific over Europe, and sending a strong deterrent message to Beijing amid rising tensions over Taipei. Forward U.S. deployments, including in the Philippines and Japan, are meant to raise the costs for any Chinese military action, reinforce alliances, and maintain stability in the region. South China Morning Post 

China unveils drone-mounted quantum device for submarine detection in South China Sea. Chinese scientists have unveiled a drone-mounted quantum sensor capable of detecting submarines with extreme precision, a breakthrough that could shift the balance in South China Sea naval operations. The sensor, which achieves picotesla sensitivity, overcomes the “blind zones” that limit traditional submarine detection tools in low-latitude areas where Earth’s magnetic field aligns with the surface. Successfully tested offshore, the device allows China’s People’s Liberation Army to detect both submarines and their trailing disturbances, potentially enhancing anti-submarine warfare amid rising U.S.-China tensions in the region. South China Morning Post 

South Korea voiced concern over China’s structure in contested waters. South Korea has voiced "deep concern" to China over steel structures positioned in the Yellow Sea, particularly near Ieo Islet in a maritime zone where both countries’ exclusive economic zones overlap. During recent maritime talks in Seoul, South Korea emphasized that its legitimate maritime rights must not be infringed. China claimed the structures are solely for aquaculture and unrelated to territorial claims. While tensions remain, both sides agreed to continue dialogue and to avoid letting the issue hinder broader relations. They also formed subcommittees to address disputes and enhance maritime cooperation. China has installed three structures since 2018, raising suspicions about its intentions. Yonhap News Agency Reuters 

South Korea Indicts Another Former President. Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been indicted on bribery charges related to his son-in-law's employment at a now-defunct Thai airline. Prosecutors allege the $150,000 in salary and housing benefits was a bribe from businessman Lee Sang-jik, who reportedly arranged the job as a favor to Moon’s family. Moon’s team denies wrongdoing, calling the case a politically motivated attack by allies of current President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is himself facing insurrection charges. The indictment adds to South Korea’s long history of former presidents entangled in legal battles, fueling the nation’s deepening political polarization. New York Times

Indonesia vows to maintain ‘balanced’ ties between U.S. and China. Indonesia has promised to maintain "balanced and constructive" ties with both China and the U.S. after holding its first high-level 2+2 dialogue with China in Beijing. The talks, marking 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two nations, aimed to strengthen cooperation in areas like intelligence sharing, transnational crime, and coastguard coordination, while reinforcing Jakarta's neutral, non-aligned foreign policy. Indonesia emphasized its equal partnerships with both powers, especially amid U.S. tariff threats, and China's expanding economic ties. Analysts say the move enhances Indonesia's role as both a regional mediator and strategic partner. One international-relations professor stated that “Indonesia’s selection represents the strengthening of Jakarta’s diplomatic bargaining position bilaterally, regionally, and in the context of China’s strategic competition with the U.S.” Though Indonesia has stronger military ties with Washington, it is now exploring expanded defense cooperation with China. Another dialogue is planned for next year. South China Morning Post 

Taiwan proposes another $10 billion in aid to deal with US tariffs. Taiwan has proposed an additional $10 billion in aid to counter the economic impact of looming U.S. tariffs, which President Trump paused for 90 days. Premier Cho Jung-tai outlined the expanded package, including business support and job market stabilization. The plan awaits parliamentary approval amid opposition-led budget cuts. Reuters 

2 security officials, assigned to protect polio workers, killed by gunmen in southwest Pakistan. Two security officials protecting polio workers in Mastung, Balochistan were shot and killed by gunmen on a motorcycle on Wednesday. The polio workers were vaccinating children nearby and were unharmed. No group has claimed responsibility for the killings, but such attacks are often carried out by militants who falsely accuse vaccination campaigns of being Western plots to sterilize children. The incident occurred shortly after Pakistan launched a nationwide polio drive targeting 45 million children. Despite efforts, Islamabad and Afghanistan remain the only countries where the wild poliovirus continues to spread. Over 200 health workers and their guards have been killed in similar attacks since the 1990s. Associated Press Times of India  

AFRICA

Congolese government, M23 rebels say they are working toward a truce in the volatile east. The government of the Congo and the rebel coalition that includes Rwanda-backed M23 have agreed to work toward a truce following peace talks in Doha, Qatar. This marked their first joint commitment to ending hostilities. Previous ceasefires had been declared unilaterally and failed. The statement, released on Wednesday and confirmed by both sides, signals a potential shift in efforts to end the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo, where severe violence by M23 fighters and other armed groups has displaced over 7 million people and sparked international concerns. The conflict intensified earlier this year when M23 captured key cities, including Goma and Bukavu. U.N. experts say the rebels receive support from Rwanda, and a U.N. commission is currently investigating alleged atrocities committed by both sides. Associated Press France 24 Reuters 

Vitriol, aggression won't halt presidential bid, Ivory Coast's Thiam says. Ivory Coast opposition leader Tidjane Thiam vowed to continue his presidential bid despite being removed from the electoral roll over his former French citizenship. Thiam, a former Credit Suisse CEO and now head of the PDCI party, denounced the decision as politically motivated and based on an obscure 1961 law. Though he renounced his French nationality in February, the ruling is final. Thiam said his party will not nominate a replacement and warned that undermining democratic choice could risk renewed instability. He urged peaceful reform and insisted Ivorians—not the government—should decide who leads the country through the ballot box. Reuters

France says Tunisian political dissidents did not receive fair trial. France has condemned Tunisia's recent harsh prison sentences against opposition leaders and businessmen on conspiracy charges, citing a lack of fair trial conditions. The secretive trial, barred to journalists and diplomats, has drawn international criticism amid President Kais Saied’s continued crackdown on dissent. Since dissolving parliament in 2021, Saied has consolidated judicial control and silenced critics. Rights groups call the mass convictions a sign of deepening authoritarianism, while opposition leaders say the charges are politically motivated and aim to suppress efforts to rebuild democratic unity. Reuters

Macron visiting Madagascar for the first state trip by a French leader to the island in 20 years. French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day visit to Madagascar on April 23, marking the first state visit by a French leader to the ex-colony since 2005. Meeting with President Andry Rajoelina, Macron underscored the importance of boosting economic cooperation and expanding market access in the Indian Ocean and East Africa. The leaders signed agreements in energy, agriculture, and education, and Macron announced funding for a long-delayed hydroelectric dam project. The visit also addressed lingering colonial-era disputes, including Madagascar’s claim over the Scattered Islands and its request for the return of the remains of a local king killed by French forces. Both countries agreed to continue negotiations on these issues. Macron is also attending a summit of the Indian Ocean Commission during the trip. Associated Press Euronews Le Monde 

54 soldiers killed in Al Qaeda affiliate attack last week, reports Benin. The government of Benin confirmed that 54 soldiers were killed in a recent attack in the country's north, a lower number than the 70 claimed by al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM. The attack on two military posts highlights the growing spread of jihadist violence from the Sahel region into northern parts of coastal West African nations like Benin and Togo. The insurgency, rooted in a 2012 Tuareg rebellion in Mali, has destabilized the region, leading to thousands of deaths, mass displacement, and multiple military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020. Reuters France 24 

China and Kenya bolster ties amid 'turbulent international situation.’ China and Kenya elevated their relationship to a "new level" during a meeting between President’s Xi Jinping and William Ruto in Beijing on April 24. Both leaders pledged to strengthen China-Africa cooperation, particularly within the Global South. Xi emphasized their joint efforts to advance the development of China-Africa relations amid global uncertainties. China has been a significant partner in Kenya's infrastructure development through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), funding major projects like the Mombasa railway. Xi and Ruto signed 20 agreements covering various sectors such as science, technology, education, water resources, and transport. Kenya has been working to secure more funding for projects, despite facing challenges with heavy debt. This is Ruto's first state visit to China since becoming president. Reuters 

Yonhap, UNHCR host forum on forced displacement in Africa. Yonhap News Agency, in partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), is hosting the Global Forum on Solutions for Forced Displacement in Africa in Seoul to address the plight of over 100 million displaced Africans. The event will highlight the impact of war, violence, and climate change on forced migration, and emphasize the media’s role in raising awareness. Sponsored by the Africa Forum and Korea-Africa Foundation, it also features discussions on Africa’s displacement crisis and the South Korean press's role in responding. Yonhap recently launched the Ubuntu Initiative to improve Korean understanding of Africa. Yonhap News Agency  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump Meets His Match: The Markets. President Trump’s economic policies are increasingly shaped by market reactions, as recent volatility has forced him to soften his stance on tariffs and trade. Despite his aggressive rhetoric, Trump paused new tariffs and backed off firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell after markets tumbled. Retail executives warned Trump his policies risk disrupting supply chains and raising prices. Though Trump claims to act in Americans' best interest, critics say he’s torn between market gains and his push to reshore manufacturing. Despite his public bravado, Wall Street’s reactions remain the most consistent influence over his economic decisions in his new term. Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal

Corporate America puts Wall Street on alert over damage from trade war. Corporate America is warning of significant fallout from Donald Trump’s escalating trade war, with executives citing higher costs, disrupted supply chains, and recession fears in Q1 earnings calls. More than 90% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far mentioned tariffs, while mentions of “recession” surged from 3% last quarter to 44%. Norfolk Southern flagged slowed car shipments, GE Vernova expects $400 million in added costs, and Baker Hughes predicted $200 million earnings hit. “CEOs are a really unhappy bunch at the moment,” said Steven Purdy of The TCW Group, a U.S.-based asset management firm. “They don’t know if they’re going to wake up in six months into an entirely new world order.” Financial Times

Apple’s EU fight is transatlantic tension in a nutshell. The European Union has fined Apple €500 million for its App Store practices under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), escalating a transatlantic dispute over tech regulation. Apple accuses the EU of “moving the goal posts,” while EU officials insist the fine is based on “seriousness and evidence.” The case highlights deep philosophical differences: Apple defends tight control over its ecosystem as essential for security, while EU regulators say it stifles competition. Amid wider tensions—including Trump’s tariffs and U.S. scrutiny of EU digital laws—experts warn that the fight over app store fees and developer access is far from over. Apple plans to appeal. Politico EU 

FBI annual internet crime report says fraud, scam losses reached record levels in 2024. The FBI's annual Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) report revealed a record year in 2024, with reported losses reaching $16.6 billion. The center received 859,532 complaints, a 33 percent increase over 2023. Over the past five years, IC3 has averaged 836,000 complaints annually, eclipsing the total of 9 million complaints it has handled since 2000.  Cyber-enabled fraud accounted for nearly 83 percent of all losses, stemming from 333,981 complaints and $13.7 billion in losses.  This amount is broken down into Investment fraud ($6.57 billion), Business Email Compromise (BEC) scams ($2.77 billion) and tech support fraud ($1.46 billion).  Cybercriminals increasingly employed cryptocurrency as a tool to defraud investors, carry out money laundering, and fuel other crimes.  Joint law enforcement operations between the FBI and India's Central Bureau of Investigation, along with other local authorities, resulted in 225 arrests in 2024, a 700 percent increase from 2023.  This type of international collaboration began in 2022 and involves numerous raids, the sharing of over 60 actionable leads, and active prosecutions of fraudulent call centers.  CyberScoop The Record

Research indicates ransomware groups adopting ‘affiliate’ models to increase profits.  A Secureworks research report indicates that ransomware groups such as DragonForce and Anubis are launching new business models to attract affiliates and increase market share and profits. Researchers say these groups are enticing hackers to join forces with them by adopting affiliate models to increase the volume of incidents in which their services can be used. DragonForce, which launched as a traditional RaaS scheme in August 2023, has rebranded itself as a "cartel" and announced a shift to a distributed model that allows affiliates to create their own 'brands."  Secureworks explained that “even sophisticated threat actors may appreciate the flexibility that allows them to deploy their own malware without creating and maintaining their own infrastructure. By broadening its affiliate base, DragonForce can increase its potential for financial gain.”  For its part, Anubis offers three monetization options for clients ranging from traditional encryption attacks to data extortion attacks.  Anubis uses various tactics to increase extortion pressures on victims such as threatening to publish stolen data and identifying victims on social media.  According to Secureworks, Anubis operators “threaten to take the notifications a step further” by notifying various regulators of victim system breaches. Rafe Pilling, threat intelligence director at Secureworks’ Counter Threat Unit, notes that “these two examples shine a light on some of how this is taking shape in the ecosystem. Understanding how these groups are operating, tooling and monetizing is crucial in deploying the right defenses to secure people and businesses."  The Record

Chinese space agency says steps toward 2030 crewed lunar landing proceeding ‘as planned.’  Lin Xiqiang, deputy director of the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA), said the country's plans to put astronauts on the moon by 2030 are progressing smoothly.  Lin said large-scale tests are proceeding as planned with prototype development and testing of the Long March 10 and Mengzhou spacecraft.   Thermal evaluations of the Lanyue lunar lander are among the component tests under way for the crewed lunar mission.  The Lanyue lander will transport crew members from the spacecraft to the moon's surface.  Subsequent tests will focus on the safety and reliability of the Long March 10 superheavy rocket, the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft, and the lunar lander.  Lin said ground tests will assess the performance of the spacecraft’s emergency escape systems to evacuate the crew in the event of a launch or rocket failure.  He added that testing will examine “integrated landing and take-off verification” on the lunar lander, a tethered engine ignition test of the rocket, and a low-altitude flight.  South China Morning Post

Leading Chinese tech firms roll out multiple upgrades for AI visual, autonomous tools.  A notable string of new AI products have been generated by China's leading technology firms, including Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu, and Alibaba Group Holding.  Applications focused on visual applications and autonomous agents are featured in the latest releases.  Tencent has upgraded three-dimensional design capabilities for its Hunyuan family of AI models.  These tools generate high-resolution 3D assets for applications such as video gaming, industrial design, and 3D printing.  TikTok parent company ByteDance has begun beta testing of Coze Space, an AI agent designed to connect with internet browsers and code editors to conduct stock analyses and generate slide presentations.  Meanwhile, Baidu has introduced Xinxiang, its own AI agent to smartphones.  The app simplifies complex tasks and generates output including text, charts and map routes, according to Baidu.  South China Morning Post

SK Hynix displaces Samsung as leading DRAM producer for first time.  Forthcoming earnings results for SK Hynix, the South Korean chip manufacturer, indicate it has displaced Samsung Electronics Co. as the world's top DRAM vendor for the first time.  The demand for AI applications has propelled SK Hynix, which is a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory to Nvidia Corp.  The South Korean firm captured 36 percent of the DRAM market in the March quarter, compared with Samsung's 34 percent.  Samsung's operating profit trailed SK Hynix for the first time in the December quarter.  MS Hwang, research director at Counterpoint Research in Seoul, described the development as "another wake-up call for Samsung."  Bloomberg analysts projected that SK Hynix will report a 38 percent quarterly increase in sales and a 129 percent burst in operating profit for the quarter ending in March.  A Taiwan research firm forecast that SK Hynix will maintain its hold on more than half of the HBM market measured in gigabit shipments in 2025, with Samsung’s share falling to just under 30 percent and Micron Technology Inc. increasing to almost 20 percent.  Bloomberg   South China Morning Post

FTC member signals commitment to promote AI innovation ahead of regulation.  Melissa Holyoak, a member of the Federal Trade Commission, told a conference of privacy professionals that under chairman Andrew Ferguson’s leadership, “the commission will promote AI growth and innovation, not hamper it with misguided enforcement actions or excessive regulation.”  Holyoak went on to say that the FTC must understand “how regulatory and enforcement efforts in privacy may impact a firm's ability to access and train data, and, importantly, how they impact the firm's abilities to compete.”  In particular, smaller companies could be disadvantage by requirements to obtain affirmative consent to use individuals’ data for AI training operations.  She questioned whether there may be alternatives to regulations “that are better suited to balancing privacy concerns with interest in fostering innovation and competition.”  Holyoak echoed remarks by Vice President JD Vance in pointing out that AI’s potential for economic prosperity “will never come to pass if over regulation deters innovation from taking the risks necessary to advance the ball.”  The Record

South Korea says DeepSeek transferred user data, prompts without consent. South Korea’s data protection authority found that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek transferred user data and AI prompts without consent during its South Korean launch. Data was sent to companies in China and the U.S., including Beijing Volcano Engine. Authorities suspended the app in February and have now issued a corrective recommendation. Reuters Yonhap News Agency 

Boeing doesn’t expect the US trade war with China to slow its recovery. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said the U.S.-China trade war won’t derail the company’s financial recovery or aircraft delivery targets, despite Chinese airlines halting new plane acceptances. Boeing is redirecting undelivered jets to other buyers and remains optimistic due to global demand. While tariffs have raised costs—China now imposes a 125% tax on U.S. goods—Boeing’s CFO noted China accounts for just 10% of its $500 billion backlog. Boeing’s Q1 loss beat expectations, and it sharply reduced cash burn, signaling its recovery plan is working. Shares rose 6.6% following the earnings announcement. Associated Press 

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