Open Source Report for Monday, March 3, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, March 3, 2025

Europe Aims to Forge Its Own Peace Plan for Ukraine

Rubio gives top priority to getting Putin to negotiate about Ukraine

Hegseth halts U.S. Cyber Command’s offensive ops against Russia

Egypt says Gaza reconstruction plan is ready to be presented

China’s Xi Jinping tells Kremlin official that Beijing and Moscow are ‘true friends tempered by fire’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Ukraine War Just Got Uglier and Even More Personal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's White House visit on Friday turned into a tense, public confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. The meeting, meant to secure a framework deal on Ukraine’s mineral resources and U.S. security backing, saw Trump and Vance berate Zelensky for what they perceived as insufficient gratitude for American aid—despite Zelensky’s repeated past acknowledgments. Trump also defended Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing past grievances against U.S. investigations into Russia. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Philip Breedlove, a Cipher Brief expert, called the event a “horrible disappointment,” warning that Putin was the only winner of the day. He criticized Trump’s approach, highlighting that Russia remains an aggressor and arguing that negotiations should address Moscow’s broader hostile actions, not just Ukraine. With his position weakened, Zelensky now faces the challenge of rebuilding diplomatic ties and securing continued Western support, particularly from Europe, which has outpaced the U.S. in aid. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky says he can salvage relationship with U.S., sign minerals agreement. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday he believes he can mend ties with President Donald Trump despite their tense Oval Office meeting on Friday, but discussions should remain private. Speaking in London, he stressed that Ukraine would not cede any territory to Russia and believes he will get continued U.S. support. He underscored the need for security guarantees to make it “100% impossible” for Russia to commit renewed aggression. He also confirmed that Ukraine remains ready to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. despite the abrupt end to his Washington visit. “We agreed upon signing it; and we were ready to sign it,” he said. He dismissed calls from numerous Trump allies for him to resign. Reuters Bloomberg Reuters

Zelensky’s Path Back to White House Would Confront Big Hurdles. President Donald Trump’s dislike of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shaped U.S. policy toward Ukraine, turning diplomatic engagements into public rebukes. “If he likes a foreign leader, we have good relations with that country. If he doesn’t like a foreign leader, we don’t… Trump likes to admit he doesn’t like Zelensky. So there’s your equation right there,” former national security adviser John Bolton said. Trump’s disdain for Zelensky dates back to 2019 when the Ukrainian leader refused to publicly announce an investigation into Hunter Biden, leading to Trump’s first impeachment. Since returning to office, Trump has amplified his grievances. Trump reposted a claim on his social media network Truth Social on Sunday that Zelensky "will have no choice but to concede" to Washington's terms to the mineral deal because Kyiv cannot survive the war without U.S. backing. Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent

Zelensky calls Trump’s support ‘crucial’ for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky defended Ukraine’s stance after his heated Oval Office clash with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, but acknowledged it was "bad for both sides." Speaking to Fox News, he insisted Ukraine’s relationship with the U.S. transcends individual leaders, emphasizing the deep historical ties between both nations. He rejected accusations of ingratitude, stating his goal was to ensure Ukraine’s situation was "correctly understood.” Zelensky grew frustrated when Vance accused Ukraine of forcing conscripts to the front lines, and Trump accused him of "gambling with World War III." Zelensky countered that Ukraine was fighting for survival. On Saturday, Zelensky appeared conciliatory when he posted on social media after arriving in London to meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. “It’s crucial for us to have President Trump’s support,” Zelensky said in a series of posts on X . “He wants to end the war, but no one wants peace more than we do.” Fox News Reuters CNN

Flow of U.S. Weapons to Ukraine Has Nearly Stopped and May End Completely. The U.S. flow of weapons to Ukraine has nearly stopped, and the Trump administration is considering cutting off all remaining aid. Friday’s Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky exposed the deepening rift, with Trump viewing further support as leverage. Since taking office, Trump has halted new arms packages. An administration official said Trump would meet on Monday with his top national security aides, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, to consider a range of policy options for Ukraine that include suspending or canceling all American military aid to Ukraine. About $3.85 billion remains of what Congress authorized for additional withdrawals from the Defense Department’s stockpile. The shift would mark a departure from previous bipartisan support, leaving Kyiv increasingly vulnerable. New York Times Washington Post

Europe Aims to Forge Its Own Peace Plan for Ukraine. European leaders, led by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, are drafting a Ukraine peace plan to present to the U.S., aiming to secure long-term security guarantees for Kyiv. The plan includes a European-led coalition that could deploy military forces to Ukraine under a ceasefire or peace agreement, aiming to deter further Russian aggression. To bolster their position, European nations are committing to increased defense spending. Starmer said Europe “must do the heavy lifting” but the “effort must have strong US backing.” European leaders also stress the need to equip Ukraine with advanced weaponry for long-term deterrence, signaling a shift toward greater European self-reliance in defense policy. The EU is also still considering seizing frozen Russian assets to bolster aid. An emergency EU summit is scheduled for Thursday in Brussels to address Ukraine’s needs. Wall Street Journal Reuters New York Times Associated Press Politico EU

France proposes partial one-month Ukraine truce, Macron tells Le Figaro. French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Britain are proposing a partial one-month truce in Ukraine that would exclude ground fighting but cover air, sea, and energy infrastructure attacks. But the Financial Times reports that the UK has distanced itself from the proposal, while Kyiv raised reservations about stopping fighting without security guarantees. Macron acknowledged difficulties in enforcing a full ceasefire due to the vast front line. Speaking to Le Figaro before a London summit convened by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Macron said European ground troops would only be deployed in a second phase. Reuters Financial Times Financial Times

Italy’s Meloni offers to mediate U.S.-Ukraine dispute. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni offered to work with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to ease tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine, warning that Western divisions weaken collective security. Speaking ahead of a UK-led European peace summit, she emphasized the role of the UK and Italy in fostering unity. Starmer, expressing trust in President Donald Trump’s approach, said Britain and France would form a “coalition of the willing” to present a peace plan to Washington and Kyiv. The Telegraph

UK announces new $2 billion deal to fund air-defense missiles for Ukraine. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a $2 billion deal on Sunday allowing Ukraine to buy 5,000 air-defense missiles using UK export finance. The Ministry of Defense said Thales would produce the lightweight-multirole missiles, which have a range of over six kilometers and can be launched from land, sea, or air. Starmer called the deal crucial for protecting Ukraine’s infrastructure. The announcement follows Russia’s largest drone attack of the war, with over 200 launched last week. Reuters

Analysis: Trump Jettisons Ukraine on His Way to a Larger Goal. President Donald Trump’s tense Oval Office meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday made clear his intention to abandon Ukraine and pursue closer ties with Russia. Trump openly dismissed Ukraine’s leverage against Vladimir Putin, while Vice President JD Vance berated Zelensky as ungrateful. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s shift, suggesting the U.S. should engage Russia and China rather than stand by Ukraine. Trump’s broader goal is dismantling the post-World War II order, favoring transactional great-power deals over alliances. European allies, especially France and Eastern Europe, reacted with alarm, while Russia celebrated Trump’s stance. The fallout leaves Ukraine isolated, with its security guarantees in doubt. New York Times

Analysis: Trump and Zelensky both suffer setbacks after Oval Office blowup. Friday’s Oval Office confrontation between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky weakened both leaders. Zelensky failed to secure stronger U.S. backing for Ukraine’s defense, while Trump’s push for a peace deal suffered as Ukraine resisted terms favorable to Russia. Their public clash risks emboldening President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s demand that Zelensky agree to peace or lose U.S. support further isolates Kyiv. European allies worry that Trump is more aligned with Putin while Trump faces criticism for undermining an ally. Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal Washington Post Reuters 

Analysis: Zelensky invades Trump’s ‘disinformation space’ — and it could hurt Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s refusal to defer to President Donald Trump’s narrative during their Oval Office meeting Friday has deepened the divide between Kyiv and Washington. Unlike European leaders who sought to flatter Trump, Zelensky confronted his revisionist history of the war, triggering a shouting match. Trump later told him to leave the White House, stating he could return when he is “ready for peace.” Trump and Vice President JD Vance accused Zelensky of prolonging the war, while Zelensky countered that President Vladimir Putin had repeatedly broken agreements. The fallout has fueled fears that Trump may strike a deal with Russia and abandon Ukraine. Russian officials celebrated, echoing Trump’s claims that Zelensky was “gambling with World War III.” Despite the backlash, Zelensky reiterated gratitude for U.S. support. European leaders have reaffirmed their backing for Ukraine, but with U.S. aid in doubt, Kyiv faces an increasingly uncertain future. CNN Wall Street Journal 

Analysis: Trump’s Dressing Down of Zelensky Plays Into Putin’s War Aims. President Donald Trump’s clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington may strengthen President Vladimir Putin’s hand, as the Kremlin leverages the rift to extend Russia’s war on Ukraine. Trump’s call for a swift cease-fire contrasts with Putin’s insistence on resolving “root causes,” code for limiting Ukraine’s military and NATO aspirations. The public scolding of Zelensky was headline news in Russia, reinforcing Kremlin propaganda that Kyiv’s Western backing is waning. Moscow analysts predict Russia will prolong the war, potentially seizing more territory if U.S. aid declines. New York Times

Analysis: Trump's Zelensky outburst a culmination of weeks of frustration. The White House clash between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky was the culmination of weeks of growing frustration within Trump’s administration. Trump sought a quick resolution to the war, a restoration of U.S.-Russia ties, and a minerals deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s resources. Talks stalled as Zelensky hesitated to sign without security guarantees Trump was also irritated by Zelensky’s media-driven appeals for U.S. support and openly pushed for Ukrainian elections, despite martial law preventing them. His team limited contact with Zelensky and saw the Ukrainian president as an obstacle. Several U.S. lawmakers, including Senator Lindsey Graham, said they had warned Zelensky not to confront Trump. After the argument, Graham said U.S. cooperation with Zelensky was now uncertain. Reuters  

Russians gloat over Zelensky's 'suicide’ in the White House.' Russia seized on Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House clash with Donald Trump, portraying it as a humiliating defeat for the Ukrainian leader. Ex-President Dmitry Medvedev called it a “solid slap,” while spokeswoman Maria Zakharova mocked Zelensky for "biting the hand that fed him." Russian state media framed the dispute as proof that Trump is distancing himself from Ukraine, with commentator Vladimir Solovyov dubbing it “Zelensky’s suicide in the White House.” Moscow sees the rift as an opportunity to push for an end to U.S. military aid and delegitimize Zelensky, whom Putin and Trump have both called a dictator. Russian officials suggested the fallout could hasten Zelensky’s downfall, making a settlement with Ukraine under different leadership easier. Reuters

Ukraine confronts a future without America, and perhaps Zelensky. Ukrainians reacted with shock and defiance after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s heated Oval Office clash with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Many viewed the encounter as humiliating, but Zelensky’s refusal to back down strengthened his domestic standing among soldiers and citizens alike. Officers praised him for standing firm in military chats, while social media saw an outpouring of support—even from past critics. However, within Ukraine’s political elite, opinions were mixed. Some feared Zelensky’s approach had worsened Ukraine’s fragile standing with Washington, jeopardizing critical military aid. A former diplomat called his downfall “inevitable.” Others suspected the White House confrontation was a staged provocation to justify cutting support. The Economist Reuters Washington Post Associated Press Financial Times New York Times  Bloomberg Financial Tiimes Wall Street Journal

White House clash ups pressure on Europeans to aid Ukraine without U.S. European leaders publicly backed President Volodymyr Zelensky after his Oval Office confrontation with President Donald Trump, but privately, concerns mounted over whether Europe can sustain Ukraine’s war effort alone. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called for Europe to step up as the "new leader of the free world." With U.S. support in question, European policymakers are assessing weapons stockpiles and considering a $20 billion aid package. Wary of direct conflict with Trump, some leaders pushed for a diplomatic summit to salvage relations. Washington Post Bloomberg Reuters Reuters New York Times

FBI director calls on Congress to investigate Ukraine aid transparency. FBI Director Kash Patel urged Congress to investigate U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that Americans deserve accountability. He criticized the scale of aid and questioned President Volodymyr Zelensky’s credibility. Patel’s remarks align with the Trump administration’s skepticism of Ukrainian funding, which recently cut most USAID foreign aid contracts. U.S. oversight agencies have tracked Ukraine aid, which has supported infrastructure, hospitals, and anti-corruption reforms. Patell previously received $25,000 from a pro-Kremlin filmmaker. Kyiv Independent

Norway plans to raise financial support for Ukraine, prime minister says. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced plans to seek increased financial support for Ukraine from parliament. Norway had previously committed $3.12 billion for 2025. Støre will meet European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky in London on Sunday. The announcement comes after Zelensky’s tense White House confrontation with Donald Trump. Reuters

Ukraine Says Russian Ballistic Missile Hits Ship in Odesa Port. Russia struck Odesa's Black Sea port with a ballistic missile on Saturday, damaging a Panamanian-flagged vessel owned by a European company and injuring two port workers, regional governor Oleh Kiper said. The attack targeted shipping infrastructure in the strategically vital port, which has faced repeated Russian strikes. In February, a drone assault injured four and caused major power outages, while four cargo ships were hit in October. Odesa, Ukraine’s third-largest city, remains a key hub for grain and oil exports despite Russian efforts to disrupt maritime trade. Bloomberg

Ukraine condemns IAEA nuclear plant visit via Russian-occupied territory.  Ukraine condemned the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for visiting the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant via Russian-controlled territory, calling it a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Kyiv’s foreign ministry blamed Russia for pressuring international organizations into accepting illegal procedures in occupied areas. The IAEA's latest monitoring mission, which arrived Saturday, marked the first time inspectors entered the plant through Russian-controlled territory rather than via Ukraine. The mission had been delayed for weeks due to military activity, with both sides blaming each other for obstructing safe access. Reuters

New Ukrainian general inflicts ‘unsustainable losses’ on Russia. Ukrainian forces have advanced near Pokrovsk and Toretsk, reclaiming key positions and inflicting “unsustainable losses” on Russian troops. Gen Myhailo Drapaty is credited with leading these efforts, employing unconventional but calculated strategies. Russia has lost ground in Uspenivka but gained villages in eastern Donetsk. Ukrainian forces, using U.S.-donated armor, are disrupting Russian logistics while defending against drone and missile strikes. The Telegraph

Ukrainian ambassador hails journalists as ‘fighters for truth.’ Ukrainian Ambassador to Britain Valery Zaluzhny honored journalists killed covering Russia’s war on Ukraine, calling them “fighters for truth” at a London service. Speaking at St Bride’s Church, he said journalism had become another battlefield against Kremlin propaganda, which seeks to erase identities and distort reality. The service marked three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Reporters Without Borders estimates 13 journalists have been killed in Ukraine since 2022. Zaluzhny, formerly Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, emphasized that dictators fear truth more than weapons, praising journalists’ role in revealing Ukraine’s resilience to the world. The Times

Attacks on Ukraine’s draft officers on the rise. Attacks on Ukraine’s enlistment officers are increasing, driven by social tensions and Russian interference. A Poltava officer was murdered during an abduction attempt, marking an escalation. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) blames Russian intelligence for inciting violence, including bombings of enlistment offices. Critics argue mobilization policies are flawed, fueling public distrust. Russia exploits Ukraine’s internal divisions through sabotage and propaganda. Lawmakers stress the need for reform, better public communication, and vigilance against Russian recruitment of young Ukrainians for subversive activities. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 6, injure 26 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed six civilians and injured 26 over the past day, authorities reported on Monday. Russian forces launched 83 drones overnight, with Ukraine’s air defense downing 46. In Kherson Oblast, 25 settlements were hit, killing four people. Two civilians died in Donetsk Oblast. In Kharkiv, a drone strike injured eight. Attacks also targeted Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih, wounding multiple civilians. Kyiv Independent

1 killed, 10 injured after Russian drone drops explosive on bus in Kherson. A Russian drone attack on a shuttle bus in Kherson on March 2 killed a 53-year-old woman and injured at least 10 others, with four in serious condition. Russian forces, stationed on the east bank of the Dnipro River, continue daily strikes on Ukraine-held territory. Journalists describe Russia’s systematic civilian targeting as a "human safari.” Kyiv Independent

8 injured in Russian attack on Kharkiv, including child. Russia launched a drone attack on Kharkiv on Sunday, injuring eight people, including a child. The strike damaged three houses, shattered nearly 150 windows, and sparked a fire in a high-rise building. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, is less than 30 miles from Russia. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Feb. 28-Sunday, March 2. SUNDAY–The Kremlin is attempting to sabotage the U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal by pushing conflicting narratives to dissuade both Ukrainian and American audiences. Russian officials are trying to counter the deal by offering Washington alternative mineral agreements. The Kremlin sees the mineral deal as a long-term US investment in Ukraine’s sovereignty and a threat to Russia’s objectives. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is exploiting discussions about European peacekeepers to push for regime change in Ukraine. SATURDAY–Senior U.S. officials suggest a possible cut in aid to Ukraine, though President Donald Trump has not indicated such a move, which would contradict his stated goal of securing lasting peace. U.S. military aid has enabled Ukraine to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces, and halting support could embolden Vladimir Putin to escalate his demands and prolong the war. Cutting U.S. aid to Ukraine would weaken American global influence and embolden adversaries like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, who seek to exploit divisions in the West. Putin remains the primary obstacle to peace, insisting on Ukraine’s complete capitulation. The Kremlin is pushing propaganda that Russia has effectively won the war to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Russia is recruiting unfit soldiers to compensate for personnel shortages. FRIDAY–Russia strengthened ties with China and North Korea, with officials meeting in Beijing and Moscow to expand security and economic cooperation. Ukrainian officials deepened relations with South Korea as reports surfaced of increased North Korean troop deployments to support Russia’s war. Ukraine launched strikes on Russian military targets in occupied territories, including ammunition depots, command posts, and an oil refinery. The US approved Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s new ambassador.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Hegseth halts U.S. Cyber Command’s offensive ops against Russia. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the U.S. Cyber Command to stop offensive cyber operations against Russian networks, reportedly as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table for talks on Ukraine.  Hegseth issued his directive before President Trump broke with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday, according to the New York Times. U.S. intelligence access to Russian cyber networks remains critical to understand the intentions of Putin and those who influence him, should negotiations about Ukraine commence. And there is added risk, because, according to U.S. intelligence, Russian state-sponsored hackers persist in trying to penetrate, spy on and sabotage U.S. and European networks. The Times reported that U.S. Cyber Command has been running covert cyberoperations to help Europe, in conjunction with Britain’s Government Communications Headquarters and Canada, both of which may continue those ops while the U.S. pivots to China. New York Times CBS News  

Rubio gives top priority to getting Putin to negotiate about Ukraine. Appearing on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The only way it ends is if Vladimir Putin comes to a negotiating table. And right now, President Trump is the only person on Earth who has any chance whatsoever of bringing him to a table to see what it is he would be willing to end the war on.” Rubio insisted engagement is the best course of action. “We’ve spent three years calling Vladimir Putin names,” Rubio said. “That’s not the point. And the point that we’re at now is, we’re trying to get the man to a table, the Russians. And I’ve said from the very beginning, maybe they don’t want a deal either. We don’t know. But we haven’t talked to them in three years. But maybe they do.” Rubio had harsh words for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who, he said, tried to derail Trump’s efforts to open talks with Russia. “What Zelensky did unfortunately is, he found every opportunity to try to Ukraine-splain on every issue,” Rubio said. He defended Trump and said he deserves international support.  “I really am puzzled why anyone thinks that trying to be a peacemaker is a bad thing,” Rubio said.  Politico New York Times  

Thousands more U.S. troops and Stryker armored infantry vehicles deploying to Southwest border. The Pentagon is sending a Stryker Brigade Combat Team and a General Support Aviation Battalion to the Southwestern border to reinforce border operations, the Pentagon announced Saturday.  A SBCT is a mechanized infantry force of about 4,400 soldiers built around the Stryker vehicle, an eight-wheeled armored platform. A GSAB has 650 troops, UH-60 Black Hawks for command and medical evacuation, and CH-47 Chinooks for heavy lift.  A spokesperson for Fort Carson in Colorado said that about 2,400 soldiers from Carson’s 2nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, will join active-duty personnel who deployed to the southern border earlier this year. The Pentagon said Saturday’s deployment marks the latest wave of active-duty troops sent to the border since President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 and pledged to "seal the border." The first deployments were of 1,600 Marines and soldiers by late January, joining 2,500 reservists already mobilized. The total number of troops at the border will come to roughly 9,000.  Politico  Washington Post CBS News  Defense Department   

Hegseth hints that U.S. military may strike traffickers on Mexican territory if Mexican officials fail to move against cartels.  During an introductory phone call on Jan. 31, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shocked Mexico’s top brass by saying that if the Mexican government didn’t deal with the collusion between drug cartels and corrupt officials, the U.S. military was prepared to take unilateral action.  Hegseth’s warning came in the wake of President Donald Trump’s Feb. 20 executive order designating eight Mexican and South American cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”  The order allows the administration to engage military support for law enforcement missions. It put additional pressure on the Mexican government to demonstrate resolve to go after the cartels that control swaths of the border.  President Trump announced that 25 percent tariffs would go into effect on Mexico and Canada—the U.S.’s two biggest trading partners—on Tuesday, along with an additional 10% on China.  Last Thursday, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum authorized the unprecedented expulsion of 29 prisoners wanted in the U.S. for murder, drug trafficking, gun running, money laundering and other crimes. Experts say this may have been to avoid tariffs and help discourage any U.S. military action in Mexico. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV  Friday that the Mexican government, trying to appease the Trump administration, had offered to match the U.S. on tariffs on Chinese goods.  Wall Street Journal  

Sinaloa cartel bobs and weaves to counter Trump-forced Mexican government crackdown.  The Mexican government has started putting pressure on the Sinaloa cartel with arrests, drug seizures and lab bust to cut fentanyl production. The New York Times reported that some labs have been moved to other areas or temporarily shut down production. President Trump gave Mexico a month to show results on reducing trafficking in fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, and said he would levy 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods on March 4 if he wasn’t satisfied. President Claudia Sheinbaum dispatched 10,000 national guard troops to the border and hundreds of soldiers to Sinaloa state, the Sinaloa cartel’s base.  Mexican officials say they have seized nearly as much fentanyl in the last five months as in all of 2024 and have made nearly 900 arrests in Sinaloa since October. The Times reported interviewing cartel operatives who said they feared being captured or killed. They were selling off property, firing unessential personnel and investing money in advanced equipment to detect American government drones, which the U.S. has used, with Mexican government permission, since at least 2011. Experts say the trade isn’t shutting down, but it is being forced to move locations, disrupting its route operations. New York Times 

Lutnick says Trump may not max out Mexico, Canada tariffs Tuesday.   Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go into effect Tuesday as planned, but President Donald Trump may not go with the top level of 25%. "That is a fluid situation," Lutnick said on Fox News’ "Sunday Morning Futures." "There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada. Exactly what they are, we're going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate." Lutnick said Mexico and Canada have "done a reasonable job" securing their borders but more must be done to stem the fentanyl trade.  Reuters  

Analysis: Vance takes on role of Trump’s attack dog. Last Friday, joining President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday, Vice President JD Vance triggered an extraordinary public scene that may have caused an irreparable rift in relations between the U.S. and Ukraine, and possibly also Europe. For that, Vance is being praised by Trump’s conservative allies and blamed by Democrats.  The incident demonstrated Vance’s style as Trump’s attack dog.  Since Trump and Vance took office six weeks ago, the vice-president has done battle on social media with progressives, Democrats, even a fellow conservative. He traveled to the Munich Security Conference in January and made a speech that tore into Western European leadership.  Vance has staked out a broad portfolio that ranges from foreign policy to Capitol Hill. The Wall Street Journal describes Vance’s role, reporting that he sees himself as the administration’s fixer.  Reuters The Guardian Wall Street Journal  

DOGE takes credit for fake savings. Elon Musk’s team, called the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, has a “wall of receipts” that is supposed to show how it’s ending government programs that contribute to waste, fraud and abuse. Only problem is, many of the contracts it claims to have killed were dead already or had already been completed, according to a New York Times investigation.  Repeated errors have undermined the Musk team’s credibility and claim to competence. Experts tell the Times that the DOGE team doesn’t understand the federal contracting process well enough to read agency books, spot real savings and notice when programs were killed many years ago. At the White House, a senior administration official claimed that the data on the wall of receipts came from the agencies, so, other people’s fault. The DOGE website says it is trying to improve its data and asks readers to point out errors.  New York Times    

U.S. companies aren’t eager to do business in Russian market.  American companies aren’t clamoring to return to the Russian market. More than 1,000 multinational corporations sold or wound down their Russian operations in response to the war and resulting sanctions, according to a tally by Yale University’s School of Management. Few of those companies seem eager to go back in. The government is heavy-handed, inflation and interest rates are uncomfortably high and the rule of law doesn’t exist. Whenever the conflict stops, businesses will have decisions to make about their postwar operations. But even major energy companies, which were perhaps the most prominent foreign players in Russia before the war, are unlikely to return. With oil prices hovering in the $60 range, U.S. companies are under no pressure to bring online additional supplies overseas. And if that changes, there are far easier places to exploit new oil fields than Russia, including in U.S. shale formations.  Washington Post   

​​Elon Musk publicly backs call for U.S. to exit the U.N. and NATO. Elon Musk, the unelected official currently leading the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, has publicly endorsed the idea of the U.S. exiting NATO and the UN, by agreeing with a post on X. His comment, in response to a post from a right-wing political commentator, follows a bill proposed by Republican lawmakers advocating for a U.S. withdrawal from the UN, arguing that it conflicts with Trump's "America First" policy. The U.S., along with a few other nations, recently voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both NATO and the UN were originally founded by the U.S. and its World War II allies to promote global stability. Trump has criticized NATO allies for insufficient military spending and has pushed for a 5% GDP contribution from all members. He has also dismissed Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, suggesting they contributed to the war—a stance aligned with Russian propaganda. Kyiv Independent

Trump's sacking of watchdog agency chief illegal, rules judge. A U.S. judge ruled over the weekend that President Donald Trump's firing of Hampton Dellinger, the head of the Office of Special Counsel, was illegal. This case is seen as an early test of presidential power and may be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Judge Amy Berman Jackson stated that allowing Trump to remove Dellinger would give him undue influence over executive branch officials, and would offer him "a constitutional license to bully.” The Justice Department has appealed the decision. Dellinger, appointed by President Joe Biden for a five-year term, welcomed the ruling, emphasizing his role in protecting federal employees and whistleblowers. The Trump administration argued that preventing Dellinger’s removal undermines the president’s authority. However, Jackson defended the Special Counsel's role in overseeing ethical conduct and shielding whistleblowers from retaliation. The Supreme Court has delayed ruling on the case, but its outcome could impact Trump’s ability to limit the independence of federal agencies. Jackson clarified that her ruling was narrow and did not significantly reduce Trump's powers. The administration contends that Dellinger’s continued tenure disrupts their policies, citing his recent decision to halt the firing of six government workers. Reuters NPR New York Times 

Guyana accuses Venezuelan vessel of entering an oil block in Guyanese waters, enflaming the Esequibo dispute. Guyanese President Irfaan Ali over the weekend accused Venezuela of violating Guyana’s sovereignty after a Venezuelan coast guard vessel entered Guyanese waters and approached an Exxon Mobil-operated oil vessel. The incursion occurred amid a long-standing territorial dispute over the 160,000-square-km Esequibo region, which is currently under review by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Caracas denied the allegations, asserting that the waters in question are not officially Guyanese territory but part of a maritime zone pending delimitation under international law. In response, Guyana summoned Venezuela’s ambassador, lodged a formal complaint, and made plans to report the incident to the ICJ while engaging international partners like CARICOM. The Organization of American States (OAS) condemned Venezuela’s actions, and the U.S. warned that further provocations could lead to consequences for President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Meanwhile, Guyana has scrambled unspecified air assets as tensions escalate over the contested region. Reuters Associated Press 

EUROPE

Washington now ‘largely aligns’ with Moscow’s vision, Kremlin says. The Kremlin sees the Trump administration’s shift in U.S. foreign policy as a potential opportunity.  “The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, state television reported Sunday. “This largely aligns with our vision.” Russian officials celebrated Trump’s confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky but remain cautious about whether this will lead to a true thaw in U.S.-Russia relations. Talks between U.S. and Russian officials have resumed, including discussions on economic cooperation, yet sanctions remain in place. While some in Moscow see a historic chance to rebuild dialogue, others believe the U.S. remains unpredictable, and Russia continues preparing for prolonged geopolitical confrontation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Europe as historically war-prone. Lavrov said Russia could not trust Kyiv and rejected European intervention.  Washington Post Reuters

Germany weighs special funds for defense and infrastructure. Germany’s prospective coalition government is considering two special funds totaling up to €900 billion—€400 billion for defense and €400-500 billion for infrastructure—according to sources. The urgency to act intensified after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s heated White House meeting with President Donald Trump. Talks between the Christian Democrats (CDU), their Bavarian allies (CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD) began Friday, aiming for a government led by Friedrich Merz. The funds would bolster Germany’s defense and infrastructure while supporting Ukraine. Reuters

European defense shares jump as blistering rally gathers pace. European defense stocks surged Monday after investors bet that governments will boost military spending amid rising security concerns. Shares in Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Leonardo, Thales, and Saab jumped 9-14%, while the Stoxx Europe aerospace and defense index rose 6%, its biggest one-day gain since 2020. The rally follows Sunday’s European defense summit in London, where leaders faced pressure to act after Donald Trump’s heated Oval Office dispute with Volodymyr Zelensky. Germany's chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is pushing for a €100 billion defense budget increase. Investors expect higher military spending. Financial Times

Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing. Matthias Warnig, a former East German Stasi officer and close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is orchestrating efforts to revive the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by involving U.S. investors. This initiative reflects the extent of President Donald Trump's recent rapprochement with Moscow. Warnig's strategy includes engaging with the Trump administration through American business intermediaries to strengthen U.S.-Russia economic ties amidst back-channel negotiations to resolve Russia’s war on Ukraine. A U.S.-led consortium has outlined a potential post-sanctions agreement with Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas giant. However, significant challenges remain, such as lifting U.S. sanctions, securing Russia's agreement to resume gas sales, and obtaining Germany's approval to distribute the gas within Europe. European leaders have expressed concerns about the implications of this potential deal. Financial Times

Uncertainty over Trump’s plans for U.S. troops in Europe fuels anxiety. European leaders are anxious about President Donald Trump’s plans for U.S. troops in Europe, fearing reductions could weaken NATO and leave Russia’s neighbors vulnerable. Trump has not committed to a full withdrawal but has signaled a realignment that could include troop reductions. European officials worry that any drawdown might be tied to negotiations with Moscow, which could demand NATO’s rollback from Eastern Europe. Vice President JD Vance has linked troop presence to European policies, adding uncertainty. While Trump officials assure allies of no immediate pullout, past U.S. warnings about shifting priorities persist. The number of U.S. forces in Europe fluctuates between 75,000 and 105,000. Some 20,000 troops deployed early in Russia’s war on Ukraine are expected to return home. Washington Post

What’s Next for Alternative for Germany? ​The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, has surged in German politics, winning 152 seats and 21% of the vote, making it the second-largest parliamentary force. This rise has unsettled Germany, a nation committed to preventing the resurgence of far-right ideologies since World War II. The party's leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, have embraced extreme positions, aligning with controversial figures and endorsing radical policies, such as mass deportations. This shift contrasts with the moderation seen in similar European parties, like France's National Rally and Italy's Brothers of Italy, who have adopted more pragmatic stances to broaden their appeal. Mainstream German parties are deeply concerned and divided on how to counter the AfD without alienating voters further. The AfD's success highlights broader European trends where populist, nativist movements are gaining ground, influenced by leaders like Donald Trump and driven by widespread discontent with establishment politics. Financial Times

Russia’s old economy is gone. Philip Luck, a former U.S. State Department official, warns that lifting sanctions on Russia without securing major policy changes could accelerate its military resurgence. While Western sanctions have deprived Russia of over $500 billion, Moscow has adapted by building alternative financial networks and deepening trade with China, particularly in energy exports. The Kremlin has redirected vast industrial capacities toward defense, making its wartime economy effectively permanent. Luck argues that any postwar settlement must condition sanctions relief on verifiable reforms to prevent future Russian aggression. Meanwhile, the recent shouting match between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky has dampened hopes for continued U.S. support. Reports suggest Trump may halt all U.S. military aid, raising concerns in Europe. European Union leaders, including Kaja Kallas, favor seizing frozen Russian assets to sustain aid to Ukraine, with Kallas stating that Europe must assume greater leadership as U.S. commitment wavers. Fortune

Norway says it will keep supplying fuel to the U.S. navy after company calls for a boycott. Norway will continue supplying fuel to U.S. Navy ships despite a call for a boycott from private fuel supplier Haltbakk Bunkers. Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik reaffirmed the government's commitment to supporting American forces. Haltbakk Bunkers announced it would stop supplying the U.S. military in protest of how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was treated at the White House, calling it a "backstabbing TV show." CEO Gunnar Gran admitted the move was symbolic, as the company had no fixed contract with the U.S. military. The company deleted its statement. Reuters UK Defence Journal

Russia Stifles What’s Left of Opposition at Moscow Memorial Site. At the 10th anniversary of Boris Nemtsov’s assassination, Russian authorities restricted mourners at his Moscow memorial, reflecting the near-total suppression of opposition under President Vladimir Putin. Police rushed attendees, removed flowers—including those from Western diplomats—and detained mourners in several cities. With most opposition leaders dead or in exile, the pro-democracy movement has been severely weakened. Despite harassment, a small group maintains the memorial despite dwindling numbers. A Moscow court sentenced a volunteer to prison for supporting Alexei Navalny’s foundation. Nemtsov’s allies petitioned for a permanent memorial, but authorities have repeatedly denied the request. Wall Street Journal

Finland Lets Suspected Russian Shadow Fleet Ship Leave, Two Months After Suspected Sabotage.  Finland has released the Eagle S, an oil tanker seized in December on suspicion of cutting undersea cables, though the criminal investigation continues. Authorities suspect the ship is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which moves Russian oil covertly and may have been used for sabotage. Eight crew members face charges, with three still barred from leaving Finland. The cable damage in December followed similar incidents, prompting NATO to increase security. The Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands, was traveling from St. Petersburg to Egypt when seized. Russia denies involvement, condemning the ship’s detention. New York Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

Arab states fume as Israel blocks aid into Gaza, tensions inflame ceasefire standoff. Israel on Sunday fanned tensions by blocking aid trucks from entering Gaza, as friction over the tenuous ceasefire escalated. Hamas has called on Egyptian and Qatari mediators to intervene, rejecting Israel’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire during the holidays of Ramadan and Passover. The proposed truce would require Hamas to release half of the remaining hostages, living and dead, on the first day, with the rest freed upon a permanent ceasefire agreement. Hamas insists on sticking to the original ceasefire deal, which was supposed to move into a second phase involving negotiations for a final end to the war and the release of all remaining hostages. However, talks never started, and Israel has changed its tune, now demanding the return of all hostages before halting military actions. The standoff has led to renewed violence, with Israeli forces recently killing four Palestinians in separate incidents. Israel has justified these actions as responses to security threats. Meanwhile, Hamas accuses the Jewish state of "blackmail" and breaching the ceasefire agreement by halting aid. Israel's Foreign Minister has stated that goods will not be provided to Gaza without the release of hostages, and the U.S. reportedly supports this position. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accuses Hamas of stealing supplies and using them "to finance its terror machine." U.N. humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher described the blockade on aid as "alarming,” while Qatar's foreign ministry issued a statement strongly condemning the Israeli decision as "a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement" and "international humanitarian law.” According to the AFP news agency, Cairo alleged that Israel is using starvation as "a weapon against the Palestinian people,” and Saudi Arabia voiced its own "condemnation and denunciation.” The situation remains fragile, with both sides blaming each other for the stalled negotiations. Reuters BBC Associated Press Washington Post New York Times  Wall Street Journal

Egypt says Gaza reconstruction plan is ready to be presented. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty announced on Sunday that Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, aimed at ensuring Palestinians remain on their land, is ready and will be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday. The plan seeks international backing and funding, with a key role for Europe in financing reconstruction efforts. Arab states are working to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for Washington to seize control of Gaza and resettle Palestinians, a plan that has been widely rejected in the region. Egypt plans to engage major donor countries after the summit to secure financial support. The weekend announcement came amid escalating tensions, as Israel blocked aid trucks to Gaza and a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas faced uncertainty. Egypt remains committed to implementing the original ceasefire agreement. Following the Arab summit on Tuesday, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will hold an urgent meeting in Saudi Arabia to coordinate diplomatic efforts and present a unified response to the international community. Reuters The Guardian 

Hopes rise as Kurdish PKK militants heed leader’s call for peace, declare immediate ceasefire. Locals in Diyarbakir, Turkey’s largest Kurdish-majority city, on Sunday expressed support for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) ceasefire following jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan’s call for peace. The PKK’s decision to pause its 40-year insurgency, which has killed over 40,000 people, is seen as a step toward stability and prosperity in the volatile region. President Tayyip Erdogan, his nationalist allies, and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party have expressed support for the peace initiative. However, Erdogan warned that military operations against the PKK would resume if promises are not upheld. The PKK has also called for more freedoms for Ocalan, but Turkey has rejected negotiations. DEM co-chair Tuncer Bakirhan underscored the importance of political and legal reforms to ensure the ceasefire is not wasted. The move could bring significant economic and social benefits to southeastern Turkey and provide Erdogan with an opportunity to secure long-term peace. The PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, including the U.S., is based in mountainous areas in northern Iraq. If successful, the ceasefire could end decades of conflict and improve conditions in the region. Some argue that those who disarm should receive amnesty. Reuters BBC CNN The Guardian Al Jazeera 

PKK’s ceasefire declaration fuels hopes among Iraq’s displaced Kurds. Kurdish villagers living in Iraq after being displaced by violence between Turkish forces and Kurdish PKK militants are cautiously entertaining hopes that they may be able to return home. The PKK’s recent ceasefire declaration, following a call for disarmament from jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan, could bring stability to both Turkey and the turbulent border region. Turkish military offensives have devastated the area, with airstrikes and ground incursions displacing thousands of Kurdish civilians and destroying farmland. Villagers like Adil Tahir Qadir, who fled decades ago, say they are eager to return if peace holds. However, the conflict has left deep scars—about 200 villages in Amedi, a border area in Iraq’s Dohuk province, have been emptied, and daily bombings have made normal life impossible, destroying water sources and landing dangerously close to village schools. Residents recall a time when their communities thrived on farming and livestock, but years of war have left them dependent on aid and unstable jobs. Hills “full of vines and fig farms” have been replaced with the reality of “warplanes, drones, and bombings,” said one resident of Guharze, a village in the mountainous region. Many remain skeptical of the current, fragile peace, recalling previous failed ceasefire attempts in 1993 and 2015. While some call for unity among Kurdish factions, others fear that calm may once again be short-lived. Associated Press   

Russia scrambling to maintain hold on key military bases in post-war Syria. As Syria's new Islamist leadership navigates international ties following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, interim President Ahmed Sharaa is renegotiating Damascus’ relationship with Russia, which has long maintained military and economic influence in the country. Despite a contentious past, with Russia having carried out steady airstrikes against Islamist rebels, Syria is prepared to hammer out an agreement. One expert has suggested that Moscow, which “still has something to offer for Syria," is much too powerful, and too entrenched, for officials to ignore. Russian forces, once dominant in Syria, now operate under the oversight of former rebels, and the future of Moscow’s key military bases—Hmeimim Air Base and Tartous Naval Base—remains uncertain. Sharaa seeks to renegotiate Russia’s long-term base leases in exchange for diplomatic backing and financial compensation. He also demands debt relief for Syria’s estimated $20 billion-$23 billion foreign debt, much of which is owed to Russia, as well as the repatriation of funds allegedly deposited in Moscow by Assad. However, Russian officials deny the existence of such funds, and remain unwilling to extradite Assad; a Russian source said his country “does not simply give people up because the wind changes direction.” Despite tensions, both sides see mutual benefits in continued cooperation. Russia wants to maintain its Mediterranean naval presence and influence in Syria, while Damascus remains dependent on Russian supplies of weapons, fuel, and food. Meanwhile, the U.S. is signaling interest in reducing Russian and Iranian influence in Syria, and Israel prefers a Russian presence as a counterbalance to Turkey. Rebuilding Syria is a major challenge, with an estimated $400 billion needed for reconstruction. Moscow is unlikely to accept financial responsibility for the devastation, but may offer humanitarian aid. The discussions between Syrian and Russian officials continue, with the Kremlin striving to retain influence while adapting to Syria’s shifting power dynamics. Reuters 

Turkish, British officials to hold talks on Syria’s future in Ankara.  Turkish and British officials are set to meet in Ankara on Monday to discuss subsequent steps for Syria, focusing on security, sanctions, and economic development. Turkey, which supported Syrian rebels, has since established solid ties with the new administration in Damascus after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster and pledged to help rebuild the war-torn nation, including training and equipping its security forces. Britain recently announced it would adapt its sanctions on Damascus but maintain restrictions on former government officials. During the talks, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz is expected to push for the unconditional lifting of sanctions to support Syria’s reconstruction and economic recovery. He will also emphasize international backing for the new government and call for action against Israeli activities that threaten Syria’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, Israel is allegedly lobbying the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized, allowing Russia to maintain military bases to combat Turkey’s mounting influence. As part of its reconstruction efforts, Ankara has already completed initial repairs at Damascus airport to restore its functionality. Reuters 

Syria dispatches forces to majority-Druse town after deadly gunfight. Syrian security forces were deployed to Jaramana, a predominantly Druse town near Damascus, on Sunday, after a gunfight between government officers and local armed men on Friday night left one security officer dead and nine wounded. Tensions have since calmed, and Druse religious leaders condemned the violence, blaming it on an "undisciplined mob.” The Druse, a religious minority, have populations in Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The incident gained international attention over the weekend after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Syria that harming the Druse community would prompt Israeli retaliation. However, Syrian Druse leaders rejected any foreign intervention, stressing their national loyalty and calling on the government to handle the issue internally. The Syrian government vowed to maintain national unity, stating it was only targeting those directly involved in the clash. New York Times France 24 VOA   

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Xi Jinping tells Kremlin official that Beijing and Moscow are ‘true friends tempered by fire.’ Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Sergei Shoigu, the Kremlin’s Secretary of the Security Council, on Friday, emphasizing the strong and resilient partnership between their two nations. Xi said Beijing and Moscow were “true friends like steel repeatedly tempered by fire,” and highlighted the importance of continued coordination on international and regional matters. He also reaffirmed China’s commitment to implementing agreements made with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu’s visit comes as Russia and the U.S. are engaging in diplomatic efforts, sparking speculation on how improving Washington-Moscow ties might impact the Kremlin’s relationship with Beijing. Recent high-level meetings between Russian and American officials, and a potential Trump-Putin meeting, suggest a shift in diplomatic dynamics. During the meeting, Shoigu praised the “unprecedentedly high level” of Russia-China relations and stressed that their cooperation was not aimed at other countries. He also met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss shared international interests and collaboration within organizations like the UN and APEC. Xi is expected to visit Russia in May for WWII commemorations, while Putin has also invited Trump, though his attendance is uncertain. U.S. officials have expressed concerns about the deepening China-Russia alliance, but China dismissed attempts to divide the two nations as “futile.” South China Morning Post 

How China Is Challenging the West With Its Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Plan. The Wall Street Journal has launched a three-part podcast series examining China’s persistent pursuit to building up its influence across vast swaths of the globe, and expanding its global footprint with the Belt and Road infrastructure program. Since 2013, this initiative has funneled over $1 trillion into projects, from mines and major roads to “smart cities” in 150 countries. The podcast, called “Building Influence: China’s Global Infrastructure Bet,” delves into what benefits Beijing has received, and that the U.S. is doing about these developments. Wall Street Journal

Beijing claims Philippines is polluting South China Sea environment, burning waste.  China has published footage showing Philippine troops allegedly burning rubbish on the beached warship BRP Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal, accusing Manila of polluting the environment in the hotly disputed South China Sea. Chinese state media claimed the burning posed an ecological threat, while China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has previously reported that the dilapidated ship's prolonged presence had severely damaged the coral reef ecosystem. The Sierra Madre, a former WWII vessel deliberately grounded by Manila in 1999 to assert its territorial claim, has been a key point of conflict between the two nations. China has repeatedly demanded its removal, arguing that it is corroding and leaking pollutants into the water. Beijing also insists that an agreement was reached for the ship's eventual removal and Chinese oversight of resupply missions—claims Manila denies. The Philippines has not officially responded to the latest accusations but previously dismissed similar claims as misinformation to deflect from China’s own environmental damage. Philippine officials argue that Chinese fishing vessels have caused extensive coral destruction, harming marine ecosystems and the livelihoods of local fishermen. Neutral environmental experts have been unable to independently verify either side’s claims. South China Morning Post 

U.S. aircraft carrier arrives at South Korea’s Busan as show of force amid mounting regional tensions. The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson visited Busan, South Korea, on Sunday as a show of force and commitment to the military alliance between the U.S. and South Korea against North Korea. According to Seoul, the visit reinforces Washington’s "ironclad" extended deterrence. The nuclear-powered carrier, part of Carrier Strike Group 1, was accompanied by the USS Princeton (a guided-missile cruiser) and the USS Sterett (a guided-missile destroyer). This comes after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently oversaw a strategic cruise missile test and ordered full readiness for nuclear attack capability. Pyongyang will likely react to this deployment with ire, as the North considers such events to be major security threats. The visit marks the first U.S. aircraft carrier arrival since June, when the USS Theodore Roosevelt participated in joint exercises in Busan. The USS Carl Vinson last visited Busan in November 2023. Reuters Associated Press  Deutsche Welle Yonhap News Agency 

South Korean, Chinese foreign ministers to meet on sidelines of upcoming trilateral meeting in Tokyo. South Korean and Chinese foreign ministers are expected to hold talks later this month on the sidelines of a trilateral meeting with Japan’s foreign minister in Tokyo on March 22. This trilateral gathering would be the first such meeting in 16 months. It remains uncertain if Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also make a trip to South Korea. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul met with Wang in September last year. Key topics could include China’s opposition to Seoul’s recent joint statement with the U.S. and Japan supporting Taiwan’s international participation, trade issues related to U.S. tariffs, rising anti-China sentiment in South Korea, and a potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Gyeongju for the APEC summit in November. Yonhap News Agency 

Two Small Adversaries of Russia and China Are Swapping Notes to Survive.  Taiwan and the Czech Republic have deepened ties in business, security, and diplomacy as they navigate pressure from China and Russia. The partnership includes intelligence sharing, trade expansion, and cooperation on cybersecurity. Prague has channeled Taiwanese aid to Ukraine and is a strong NATO advocate of Taiwan. Despite past economic engagements with China, Czech leaders have shifted toward Taiwan, angering Beijing. Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC sees Czechia as part of its supply chain, strengthening economic links. The two nations seek to prove their partnership yields tangible benefits beyond symbolism, even as broader European support for Taiwan remains cautious. Wall Street Journal

AFRICA

Why is Congo’s army floundering in its efforts to combat a much smaller militia? The Democratic Republic of Congo’s army is struggling to stop the advance of M23 rebels, who have managed to seize key cities and strategic locations in eastern Congo, and appear intent on governing these captured areas. Despite President Félix Tshisekedi’s efforts to strengthen the military, internal corruption, poor leadership, and factionalism have weakened the army. Rwanda, which has been accused of backing M23, has denied controlling the group, though evidence suggests its troops are embedded with the rebels. Despite estimates that Congo’s military has between 100,000 and 200,000 troops, it is plagued by abuse and mismanagement, with soldiers underpaid and often engaging in extortion. And in spite of a significant increase in the military budget and purchases of advanced weaponry, the army remains ineffective against the better-trained and well-supported M23 fighters. One researcher on peace and violence said that the Congolese army essentially “operates like an armed group.” Its allies, including European mercenaries and armed groups known as the Wazalendo, continue to lose battles, surrender to insurgents, or flee. Tshisekedi, facing growing domestic opposition, has refused to negotiate directly with M23, despite diplomatic pressure and stalled peace talks. Congo’s history of weak governance, stemming from colonial rule and decades of dictatorship, has left it vulnerable to armed groups and foreign influence. The nation is vast, many of its regions remote, rural, and disconnected, making it difficult to target roaming bands of gunmen. The ongoing conflict has resulted in over 7,000 deaths since January, and regional actors like Uganda are exploiting the instability. With international intervention lacking, Tshisekedi’s government remains in a precarious position, and fears of a coup are growing as his grip on power weakens. New York Times

Congolese authorities, M23 trade accusations for fatal blasts at rebel rally. The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) government and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels on Friday exchanged blame after deadly explosions at a rally in Bukavu killed 13 people and wounded nearly 100 others on February 27. Both sides blamed each other for the attack, intensifying tensions in eastern Congo, where rebel advances have drawn in neighboring armies and raised fears of regional war. Congo’s army accused Rwandan forces and M23 rebels of attacking the crowd with rockets and grenades, while M23 leader Corneille Nangaa blamed Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, alleging that Burundi’s army—which supports Congo—was involved. Burundi’s military denied any presence in Bukavu. Witnesses said an attacker accidentally detonated a grenade while targeting a rebel convoy. Blood donation efforts were launched to aid the wounded, while families of victims awaited authorization to collect bodies. Since January, ongoing fighting in the mineral-rich country has killed 7,000 people, destroyed 90 displacement camps, and left half a million people homeless. On Friday, the U.N. reported that 60,000 refugees have fled to Burundi in the past two weeks. Reuters BBC   

ECOWAS says leader of Guinea-Bissau threatening to expel mission. Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has threatened to expel a political mission sent by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which was in the country to mediate election plans amid growing tensions over his term's expiration. The opposition claims his term ended last week, while the Supreme Court has ruled it lasts until September 4. Embalo announced that presidential and legislative elections would be delayed until November 30, further escalating political uncertainty in a country whose history has been marred by military coups. ECOWAS, alongside the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), had deployed a mission to facilitate discussions, but it left on March 1 after Embalo’s threats. The developments come as Embalo recently visited Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, highlighting Guinea-Bissau’s shifting diplomatic engagements. Reuters Bloomberg 

Somali security forces allegedly kill over 40 al Shabaab members. The Somali National Army, in cooperation with international partners, carried out an operation in the Biya Cadde zone of Hirshabelle state on Sunday, reportedly killing over 40 members of the Islamist al Shabaab armed group. Somali National Television announced the operation in a post on X, saying that the armed forces, “international partners, and vigilant locals are still continuing operations." Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Avoid travel to U.S., China tells its AI leaders, as security concerns rise. Chinese authorities are growing more concerned over national security and economic competitiveness, and have advised AI entrepreneurs and researchers to avoid traveling to the U.S. Officials worry that Chinese experts could disclose sensitive information or face detention on American soil, similar to past geopolitical disputes. While not an outright ban, authorities in major tech hubs like Beijing and Shanghai are discouraging travel unless necessary, requiring executives to report plans before and after their trips. This move further deepens the divide between the U.S. and Chinese tech industries, already strained by semiconductor export restrictions and tariffs. China aims to boost self-sufficiency in AI and other key sectors, pressuring entrepreneurs to align with national interests. Leaders like DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng have skipped international AI events following government guidance. Last month, President Xi Jinping reminded top business leaders of their national duty in tech development, underscoring Beijing’s intent to maintain control over strategic innovations. While some tech interactions between the U.S. and China persist, some Chinese authorities fear talent loss and foreign acquisitions of Chinese technology. The extent of future collaboration may be tested at Beijing’s upcoming AI summit, where foreign participation has been welcomed. Wall Street Journal Reuters 

Lack of cooperation on AI could risk ‘opening Pandora’s box’, Chinese ambassador warns. China’s ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, has called for greater global cooperation on artificial intelligence (AI), warning that the technology could become dangerous if left unchecked. Speaking at a forum hosted by Duke University and the University of North Carolina, Xie underscored the need for collaboration rather than technological restrictions, referencing China’s growing AI sector, including the startup DeepSeek, which recently claimed significant profitability. “What we need is not a technological blockade, [but] ‘deep seeking’ for human progress,” Xie said, as he cautioned that AI technology risks “opening Pandora’s box.” Tensions between the U.S. and China over AI governance were highlighted at last month’s AI Action Summit in Paris, where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance warned against working with authoritarian regimes. China’s Vice-Premier Zhang Guoqing, however, signaled willingness to cooperate on AI security and share its breakthroughs in the field. Xie also addressed broader U.S.-China relations, criticizing protectionist policies and new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, which President Trump recently increased by 10%. He reiterated China’s stance on Taiwan, urging the U.S. to adhere to the “one-China principle” and stop using the issue to “contain” China. South China Morning Post 

Microsoft to shut down Skype, move users to Teams. Microsoft is shutting down Skype in May, and encouraging users to switch to its Teams app. Once a dominant force in internet calling, Skype has lost relevance to competitors like Zoom, Google Meet, and Teams. Microsoft, which acquired Skype in 2011 for $8.5 billion, is retiring it to streamline its communication services. Skype revolutionized long-distance calling by making it affordable and accessible, gaining mainstream popularity. However, with the rise of newer alternatives, its usage has declined. While the closure may not have a major impact, some long-time users—especially older individuals—may struggle to transition to new platforms. Skype, founded in 2003, had a turbulent corporate history, including acquisitions by eBay and private investors before Microsoft’s purchase. The move marks the end of an era for one of the first mainstream internet calling services. Wall Street Journal CNN The Guardian BBC

AI companies race to use ‘distillation’ to produce cheaper models. AI companies are increasingly using “distillation” to create smaller, cost-effective models, reducing reliance on expensive large-scale AI. The technique, popularized by China’s DeepSeek, allows smaller models to replicate the capabilities of larger ones, challenging Silicon Valley’s AI dominance. While OpenAI and Microsoft embrace distillation, concerns arise over competitors using it to replicate proprietary models. Open-source AI advocates see distillation as a way to democratize technology, though it also erodes first-mover advantages. OpenAI is monitoring potential misuse but struggles to prevent competitors from benefiting. Distillation enables AI adoption on consumer devices while reshaping the competitive landscape of AI development. Financial Times

Former White House official Anne Neuberger on AI. In an interview with the Click Here podcast at the Munich Security Conference, Anne Neuberger, former White House deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technologies, discussed AI, cybersecurity, and U.S.-China competition. She highlighted China's AI advancements, particularly DeepSeek, noting that U.S. chip restrictions may have spurred Chinese innovation. She emphasized that China’s AI strength comes not just from computing power but from vast data collection, such as surveillance camera networks. Neuberger warned that AI accelerates cyber threats but can also enhance cybersecurity, stressing the need for the U.S. to act swiftly in deploying AI for defense. She also reflected on past cybersecurity challenges, including ransomware attacks on hospitals and the financial role of cryptocurrency in cybercrime, linking ransomware to Russian hybrid warfare. She noted the importance of balancing security with democratic values and called for more agile policymaking in defending against adversarial use of emerging technologies. Her key takeaway was that the U.S. must act faster in testing new approaches rather than waiting for perfect solutions. The Record 

25 arrested due to international effort on AI-generated child sexual abuse material. Operation Cumberland, a multinational law enforcement effort led by Danish authorities and supported by 18 other countries, has resulted in the arrest of over two dozen individuals suspected of distributing AI-generated child sexual abuse material (CSAM). 273 suspects have been identified, with more arrests expected. Authorities have conducted 33 house searches and seized 173 electronic devices so far. The primary suspect, an unnamed Danish national, was arrested in November for operating an online platform that allowed users worldwide to pay for access to AI-generated illegal content. This case marks one of the first major investigations involving AI-generated CSAM, which can alter real footage and make tracking offenders and victims more difficult. Europol warns that AI makes it easier for criminals to generate illegal material without technical expertise, increasing the prevalence of such content. To combat this, Europol and its partners plan an awareness campaign targeting buyers of illegal content. They will also conduct warning interventions, including sending letters and using knock-and-talk tactics to deter potential offenders. The Record Europol CNN BBC   

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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