Open Source Report for Monday, March 10, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, March 10, 2025

Trump says U.S. is close to lifting pause on intelligence sharing with Ukraine

Musk says that Starlink will 'never' shut off its terminals in Ukraine

U.S. bolsters position as world's top arms exporter

Hundreds killed in Syria’s coastal cities as Assad loyalists battle security forces

North Korea reveals nuclear-powered submarine

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The U.S. Pivot to Russia – and What It Will Mean.  Four experts — a former Supreme Allied Commander, former Acting CIA Director, former U.S. Ambassador to Poland and the CFR's top Russia expert - look at the U.S. tilt to Russia, what it means, and where it might lead, and whether the U.S. has given too much to Russia too soon in negotiations over Ukraine.  The Cipher Brief

How Will the U.S. ‘Pause’ on Intelligence Sharing Affect Ukraine?  The U.S. temporarily stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine last week in the latest blow to U.S. support for Kyiv following the Oval Office clash between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Cipher Brief turned to two members of its expert network to assess the impact of the pause in the sharing of intelligence: John McLaughlin, a former Acting Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; and Edward Bogan, a former Senior CIA Operations Officer. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says U.S. is close to lifting pause on intelligence sharing with Ukraine. President Donald Trump said Sunday the U.S. is close to lifting the pause on intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which is hindering Ukrainian military operations. The pause contributed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent statement expressing regret over tensions with Trump and signaling openness to peace talks with Russia. Trump expects Ukraine to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. but stressed that Ukraine needs to show more willingness for peace. A key U.S.-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday will discuss a potential ceasefire. Trump did not say if the U.S. would resume weapons shipments to Ukraine. Axios

America and Ukraine prepare for brutal negotiations. Ukraine and the U.S. will hold peace talks in Jeddah on Tuesday, but expectations are low. The American team includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and envoy Steve Witkoff. Ukraine's delegation is led by Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky’s top aide, but Yermak’s strained relations with Trump’s team complicate matters. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that he will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday for peace talks but will not stay for discussions with the U.S. delegation on Tuesday. Ukraine seeks U.S. security guarantees and joint mineral development but resists pressure to recognize Russian-occupied territory or hold elections under martial law. Russia is reportedly demanding Ukrainian neutrality and rejecting peacekeepers from NATO countries. Trump’s stance appears sympathetic to Putin. A failed summit could isolate Ukraine further, with one Ukrainian official warning that the U.S. could ultimately impose a deal favorable to Russia. The Economist Financial Times Associated Press

The America-Sized Hole In Ukraine’s War Effort. Ukraine is facing growing pressure as U.S. aid halts under the Trump administration, cutting off weapons deliveries and intelligence sharing. In 2022, U.S. support helped Ukraine counter Russia’s offensive with M777 howitzers and precise rocket strikes guided by American intelligence. Now, with U.S. satellite data and long-range missiles like ATACMS no longer available, Ukraine’s ability to target Russian positions and intercept missiles is weakening. Stocks of artillery shells, air defense missiles, and spare parts for systems like Bradleys and M777s are dwindling. Ukraine’s resilience has improved since 2022, with over half of its weaponry now produced domestically and European allies increasing support. However, Russian forces are still advancing. Analysts warn that tactical withdrawals may become necessary without U.S. support. Wall Street Journal

Putin Is Said to Be Ready to Agree to Ukraine Truce With Conditions. Russia says it is open to a temporary truce in Ukraine if progress is made toward a final peace settlement, including defining terms for a peacekeeping mission and which countries would participate. The offer was conveyed last month at Saudi talks between U.S. and Russian officials. U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are set to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss a ceasefire framework. President Donald Trump said he’s confident Vladimir Putin wants peace and may offer more concessions than expected. Trump has suspended U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. He also dropped support for Ukraine’s NATO membership and signaled that regaining all territory seized by Russia since 2014 is unlikely. Russia is open to neutral countries joining peace efforts. Moscow recently rejected a Franco-British proposal for a one-month truce covering air and maritime strikes. Bloomberg

Russia’s history of violating ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. Russia has violated at least 25 ceasefire agreements in Ukraine since annexing Crimea and launching a proxy war in 2014, according to President  Volodymyr Zelensky. The Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements in 2014 and 2015 both collapsed almost immediately due to Russian attacks. Christmas, New Year, and "harvest" truces were also repeatedly broken. Zelensky said on Feb. 28 that Ukraine will not accept a ceasefire without security guarantees. President Donald Trump’s administration is pressuring Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire despite Russia’s track record of violations. European partners are stepping up support, with the European Union approving an €800 billion ($867 billion) defense spending package on March 7. Analysts warn Russia could use a ceasefire to regroup and resume attacks. Kyiv Independent

Trump says latest Russian attack on Ukraine ‘what anybody else would do.’ President Donald Trump defended Russia’s missile assault on Ukraine, saying Friday that Vladimir Putin is “doing what anybody else would do.” He justified the attack, suggesting Putin is trying to end the war and blamed Ukraine for prolonging it. Trump said he would only resume aid if Ukraine agrees to negotiate: “I have to know that they want to settle.” After the U.S. cut off military and intelligence aid, including satellite imagery from Maxar, Russia launched 67 missiles and 194 drones, hitting energy facilities. Trump threatened sanctions on Russia but maintained that he trusts Putin’s desire for peace: “I believe him.” Trump also said. “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine” than Russia. Washington Post

Vance and Trump are Putin’s ‘useful idiots,’ says vice president’s cousin. Nate Vance, who fought for three years in Ukraine with the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, called his cousin, Vice President JD Vance, and President Donald Trump “Vladimir Putin’s useful idiots” after the U.S. suspended military aid to Ukraine. Nate criticized JD for attacking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Feb. 28 Oval Office meeting, saying it was "an ambush of absolute bad faith.” Nate Vance argued that Ukraine had used US military aid effectively and accused his cousin of playing politics with Ukraine’s future. He said JD Vance never sought his insights despite his frontline experience and that he left Ukraine in January to avoid capture. A former U.S. Marine, Nate joined Ukraine's military in June 2022 after traveling to Lviv to "see history being made." His comrade Dmitro recalled Nate hitting a target five times at 800 meters with an AK-47, impressing others. Serhii Filimonov, the battalion's commander, called him "an excellent fighter with a cool-headed nature." Nate rejected JD's stance, adding, "Just because we’re relatives doesn’t mean I’ll tolerate him contributing to the killing of my comrades." RBC Ukraine

'Nobody has been tougher on Russia,' Trump says. President Donald Trump told Fox News on Sunday that "nobody has been tougher on Russia," defending his record amid criticism that his administration is favoring the Kremlin. Trump avoided addressing the current freeze on U.S. aid to Ukraine but highlighted past actions, including sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and supplying Javelin missiles to Kyiv. Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lacking gratitude toward the U.S. When asked if cutting support risked Ukraine’s survival, Trump responded, "It may not survive anyway," without committing to aid. Kyiv Independent Fox News

Trump wants to see more than a minerals deal to restart aid and intelligence to Ukraine. President Donald Trump has told aides that a minerals deal with Ukraine won’t be enough to restart aid and intelligence sharing. Trump wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to show more willingness to make concessions in peace talks, including giving up territory to Russia and considering elections or stepping down. Trump is also focused on a U.S. stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources. The U.S. halted intelligence sharing this week, and Russia has since escalated attacks, with Friday among the deadliest days for civilians this year. The U.S. still provides defensive intelligence but no targeting data. NBC News 

Musk says that Starlink will 'never' shut off its terminals in Ukraine. Elon Musk said on Sunday that Starlink will "never" shut off its terminals in Ukraine, even though he disagrees with Ukraine policy. He said Ukraine’s front line would collapse without Starlink since Russian forces can "jam all other forms of communication." Musk added, "We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip." Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned Poland would seek alternatives if SpaceX becomes unreliable. Musk dismissed Sikorski’s remarks, saying Poland’s $50 million annual payment for Ukraine’s Starlink access is only "a tiny fraction of the cost." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine would have lost the war without Starlink and called Sikorski “ungrateful.” Kyiv Independent  Reuters

Trump threatens tougher sanctions against Russia only to backtrack and criticize Ukraine. President Donald Trump quickly reversed his stance on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, first threatening major sanctions on Moscow to push for a ceasefire, then defending Russia’s escalated attacks. Hours after warning of sanctions, Trump downplayed Russian aggression, suggesting Vladimir Putin was acting reasonably and blaming Ukraine for being difficult to negotiate with. His remarks mirrored Putin’s narrative. Trump's earlier threats of sanctions in January went unfulfilled. New York Times Wall Street Journal

As Trump flip-flops on Ukraine, Zelensky rushes to fix ties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scrambling to repair ties with Washington after the heated Feb. 28 Oval Office confrontation with President Donald Trump, which led to the suspension of U.S. military and intelligence aid. Trump initially threatened sanctions on Russia after a major missile assault on Ukraine but later defended Vladimir Putin’s actions, saying the Kremlin leader “has all the cards.” Zelensky’s approval rating rose to 67% despite concerns that Trump’s pressure for quick peace could force Ukraine into unfavorable terms. Trump postponed a mineral deal with Ukraine and his team has engaged with Zelensky’s political rivals. Zelensky’s attempt to rebuild ties included a public letter affirming Ukraine’s commitment to peace, which Trump positively acknowledged during last week’s address to Congress. European leaders have pledged more support, but Ukrainian soldiers fear a ceasefire would only strengthen Russia. “If we concede even a little, they will take everything,” one soldier said.  Washington Post

Johnson says Zelensky has done ‘about-face’ on mineral deal. House Speaker Mike Johnson said Saturday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has done a complete “about-face” on a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal after refusing to sign it during a heated Feb. 28 White House meeting with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Zelensky had opposed linking the deal to peace talks with Russia, arguing Vladimir Putin is untrustworthy. Johnson said Saturday that Zelensky has now “effectively apologized” and wants the deal, adding, “I think he had a rude awakening.” Johnson said Trump remains eager to finalize the agreement. The Hill

U.S. top diplomat Rubio tells Ukraine that Trump wants to end war 'as soon as possible.' U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Friday that President Donald Trump is determined to end Russia’s war on Ukraine "as soon as possible" and vowed steps toward a sustainable peace. Rubio also called French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, emphasizing Trump's push for a "just and lasting peace.” Trump has paused military aid to Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into accepting a ceasefire and is also considering tougher sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Sybiha called the discussion "constructive.” Reuters Reuters Reuters

U.S. mulls how to ease Russia energy sanctions quickly if war ends. The White House has asked the Treasury Department to explore options for easing energy sanctions on Russia if a peace deal with Ukraine is reached, according to sources. The plan would allow the U.S. to lift sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector swiftly. President Donald Trump is preparing for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks. Trump also threatened additional sanctions on Russia if peace talks fail. The Treasury is assessing how lifting sanctions could affect global oil markets and trade patterns. Reuters

Ukrainian forces fighting inside Russia are almost surrounded. Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk region are nearly surrounded after Russian advances cut off their supply lines, according to open-source maps. Ukraine’s position has deteriorated over the last three days, with Russian forces advancing near Kuryilovka and pressing toward the Sumy border. Ukraine's General Staff reported repelling 29 Russian attacks in the past day. Military analysts say Ukraine may soon face a retreat or encirclement. Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk last August aimed to pressure Moscow and serve as leverage in future talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to regain complete control of the region. Russian special forces walked 15 kilometers inside an empty gas pipeline to strike Ukrainian units from the rear, Ukraine’s military and Russian war bloggers reported on Sunday, as Moscow moves to recapture its border province that Kyiv seized in a shock offensive. Reuters The Telegraph New York Times Reuters Associated Press Financial Times Reuters Wall Street Journal Reuters

Suspension of U.S. commercial satellite imagery service endangers Ukraine. The suspension of U.S. satellite imagery has left Ukrainian forces blind in critical areas, hampering their ability to track Russian movements and plan attacks. Artillery and drone units have lost key targeting data, reducing accuracy and reaction speed. Maps integrated into battle software are no longer updating, forcing commanders to rely on outdated or incomplete intelligence. An officer in Kursk warned that the loss of terrain data will slow operations and increase casualties. Near Pokrovsk, a logistics hub under Russian pressure, the sudden blackout has disrupted supply routes and battlefield awareness, exposing Ukrainian troops to greater risk. Washington Post

Ditching Ukraine would 'be worse than Afghanistan,' Republican senator says. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned on Sunday that cutting off U.S. aid to Ukraine while it fights Russia would be worse than Afghanistan. Aid and intelligence sharing were paused after a heated argument between President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump on Feb. 28. Graham stressed the need to maintain support until a ceasefire. Graham plans to introduce sanctions on Russia's banking and energy sectors. Kyiv Independent

Lammy vows to unfreeze billions for Ukraine from Russian oligarch's Chelsea FC sale. On Sunday, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy vowed to unfreeze $2.97 billion from Roman Abramovich's Chelsea FC sale and send it to Ukraine. Abramovich was forced to sell Chelsea after sanctions following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with proceeds meant for Ukraine. Lammy said legal issues remain but he aims to resolve them without litigation. The UK government has faced disagreements with Abramovich over the funds. The UK has pledged to deliver more military support to Ukraine this year. Kyiv Independent

Russia Trots Out Its Newest Weapons in Ukraine: Horses. Russia is using horses and donkeys in Ukraine to transport supplies and troops, avoiding detection by drones. Ukrainian Sgt. Ihor Vizirenko saw Russians using horses near Chasiv Yar, where vehicles are vulnerable to drone strikes. Russia’s reliance on older tactics reflects supply issues, with Lt. Gen. Viktor Sobolev saying it’s better to lose a donkey than soldiers. Both sides are mixing modern and old strategies, with Ukraine also deploying drones and robot dogs for surveillance and combat. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine replaces India as world’s top arms importer; U.S. remains biggest seller. Due to Russia's war, Ukraine became the world’s largest arms importer from 2020 to 2024, surpassing India. Ukraine received nearly 9% of global arms exports, with 45% from the U.S. and 12% and 11% from Germany and Poland, respectively. European arms imports rose 155% over the same period. India, previously the top importer, now accounts for 8.3% of global imports. Global arms exports have remained stable. Economic Times

6 killed, 22 injured in Russian attacks against Ukraine over past day. At least six people were killed and 22 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day, officials reported on March 10. Ukraine intercepted 130 of 176 Russian drones, with 42 likely decoys. Three civilians died in Donetsk Oblast and three more in Kharkiv Oblast. Nine were injured in Kherson Oblast. In Dnipropetrovsk, two people were injured, including a 56-year-old woman. In Zaporizhzhia, four people were wounded, including a 16-year-old boy. Kyiv Independent

Russian strikes kill more than 20 over weekend; Polish prime minister warns against appeasement. Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight Friday into Saturday killed at least 22 people and wounded over 50. In Dobropillia, Donetsk region, 11 people were killed, including five children, and 47 were injured after Russian forces fired ballistic missiles and multiple rockets, damaging eight apartment buildings and 30 vehicles. Another seven people were killed in four towns near the front line. In the Kharkiv region, a Russian drone strike on a workshop killed three civilians and injured seven others. Russia also fired two Iskander missiles at Dobropillia, targeting rescuers. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the attacks, saying, “This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians. More bombs, more aggression, more victims.” The strikes came after the U.S. halted satellite imagery and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, limiting Kyiv’s ability to track and intercept attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s goal remains destruction, not peace. Associated Press Reuters Kyiv Independent RFE/RL

Drones reportedly attack 'one of 10 largest' Russian oil refineries on Monday. Drones attacked the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast overnight on March 10, causing a fire at the Rosneft-run facility, which processes 8.8 million metric tons of oil annually. Ukraine has not commented, but officials say the refinery is key to Russian military fuel supply. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported shooting down nine drones overnight. A Ukrainian drone also reportedly struck an oil depot in Cheboksary on March 9, the first such attack in the region. Kyiv Independent

Firefighters battle warehouse blaze in Russia's Samara region. Firefighters were controlling a 1,600 square meter warehouse fire in Russia's Samara region after an overnight drone attack, Russian authorities said on March 10. No injuries were reported. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have destroyed three drones over Samara. Ukrainian official Andriy Kovalenko said the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery was attacked but did not confirm Ukrainian involvement. Local residents reported explosions near the refinery. The fire follows recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Russia says it downed 88 Ukrainian drones Sunday. Russia's air defense units destroyed 88 Ukrainian drones overnight with no injuries or damage reported, Russian authorities said on Sunday. The Russian defense ministry said that 52 of the drones were destroyed over the border Belgorod region, while 13 were over the Lipetsk region and nine were over the Rostov region, both in Russia's southwest. The rest of the Ukrainian drones were downed over Russia's Voronezh, Astrakhan, Krasnodar, Ryazan and Kursk regions. Russia's aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia said on Telegram that Astrakhan, Nizhny Novgorod and Kazan airports were closed for traffic for several hours overnight to ensure air safety. Reuters

Analysis: A new low in U.S.-Ukraine relations. U.S.-Ukraine relations have sharply deteriorated since President Donald Trump’s explosive meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, with Keith Kellogg, the White House’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, blaming Ukraine for the fallout. At the Council on Foreign Relations last week in Washington, Kellogg said, “They brought it on themselves,” comparing the U.S. decision to cut military and intelligence aid to “hitting a mule with a two-by-four across the nose” to get its attention. He argued that the U.S. needs to reset relations with Russia and that isolating Moscow is “no longer a viable strategy.” Kellogg portrayed Trump’s position as strategic, framing the U.S. as a neutral arbiter rather than a backer of Ukraine. This shift reflects the growing influence of pro-Russia voices in Trump’s circle, including Vice President JD Vance, who has actively worked to weaken European support for Ukraine. Rubio and Waltz, once seen as pro-Ukraine figures, have adopted Trump’s harder line. The Guardian

How Would Peacekeeping Work in Ukraine? These Experts Gamed It Out. A Geneva-based group of peacekeeping experts has published a detailed 31-page plan for enforcing a Ukraine cease-fire, reflecting growing urgency around the issue. The proposal outlines a 700-mile buffer zone, at least six miles wide, to be patrolled by 5,000 civilians and police officers, with 10,000 foreign troops providing security under a United Nations or international mandate. Monitoring would focus on verifying weapons withdrawal and cease-fire compliance. The plan emerged from back-channel meetings involving American, Russian, and Ukrainian foreign policy experts, assisted by the Geneva Center for Security Policy. Trump’s push for a quick settlement, including suspending aid to Ukraine, has forced the cease-fire discussion to the forefront. However, skepticism remains over President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to adhere to such a deal, and Russian officials have not shown interest in peacekeeping forces. The plan underscores how Ukraine’s future may hinge on external security guarantees. New York Times

Ten Days That Shook Ukraine’s World Reverberate in Defiant Kyiv. Kyiv is grappling with the fallout from President Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. military aid and intelligence support. The Feb. 28 meeting between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky ended in a public clash, leading to a collapse in U.S.-Ukraine relations. On the battlefield, Ukrainian commanders adjust to fighting without American support, while European allies scramble to fill the void. Kyiv remains defiant amid ongoing Russian attacks. Civilians have adapted to the war’s toll, with air raid shelters and military recruitment drives becoming part of daily life. Signs of stress are visible, including more post-traumatic stress disorder cases among soldiers and civilians. Zelensky’s popularity has risen as Trump pressures Ukraine toward a quick settlement. Ukraine’s leadership remains determined to fight on, seeing no other choice. Bloomberg

Analysis: Can Ukraine—and America—Survive Donald Trump?  Historian Stephen Kotkin, a Hoover Institution fellow, discussed the implications of Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine and U.S. power. He said Trump seeks to rebalance U.S. global relationships, often using an abrasive style that weakens American soft power. Kotkin noted that Trump’s strategy exposes Europe’s reluctance to commit militarily to Ukraine despite demanding U.S. support. He warned that Trump’s actions might worsen the situation, but argued Biden’s Ukraine policy was already failing. Kotkin dismissed the idea of American decline, stating that U.S. power remains unmatched, but alliances are weakening. He criticized European countries for avoiding difficult decisions, saying Trump has forced them to confront this imbalance. Kotkin also warned that Russia is relying on the West’s internal weakness to survive and argued that Ukraine’s best hope lies in a Korean-style armistice. The New Yorker 

Musk calls for sanctions against Ukrainian oligarchs. Elon Musk called for sanctions against Ukraine’s 10 wealthiest oligarchs, especially those with mansions in Monaco. Responding to a video on X showing a Ukrainian flag near the White House, Musk tweeted, "Place sanctions on the top 10 Ukrainian oligarchs... and this will stop immediately." Ukraine has already sanctioned four of the top six billionaires, including Vadym Novynskyi, Kostiantyn Zhevago, Hennadii Boholiubov, and Ihor Kolomoiskyi. U.S. sanctions have targeted Kolomoiskyi since 2021. Forbes lists Rinat Akhmetov ($4 billion), Viktor Pinchuk ($2 billion), and others among Ukraine’s wealthiest. Musk suggested sanctions would reduce reliance on U.S. support. Ukrainska Pravda

Pro-Ukraine protesters dispute JD Vance’s account of confrontation. Vice President JD Vance said he was confronted by pro-Ukraine protesters in Cincinnati on Saturday while walking with his three-year-old daughter, who he claimed grew scared by their shouts. Vance said he spoke with the protesters, who were mostly respectful. Protesters denied targeting him, saying they passed him on their way to a nearby protest. A video shows Vance surrounded by Secret Service as protesters questioned him about Russia’s war on Ukraine and the withdrawal of U.S. support. Vance said ending the war is in Ukraine’s best interest. Independent

Russian officials criticized for giving meat grinders to mothers of soldiers killed in Ukraine. Officials from President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party in Murmansk sparked outrage by giving meat grinders to mothers of soldiers killed in Ukraine for International Women’s Day. The gift was criticized as insensitive since "meat grinder" refers to Russia’s brutal tactic of sending waves of soldiers into battle with heavy casualties. Some called the gesture “shameful,” but officials defended it, saying one woman had requested a meat grinder. Independent reports estimate 91,000 Russian soldiers have died, but the real toll is likely higher. Ukraine’s losses are also severe, with over 46,000 soldiers killed. The Guardian

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, March 7-Sunday, March 9.  SUNDAY–Russian forces have seized multiple settlements in Kursk Oblast, including Novaya Sorochina, Malaya Loknya, and Lebedevka. Russian forces advanced in Sudzha with support from North Korean troops, reaching the industrial zone and crossing the Sudzha River in some areas. Russian forces advanced into Sumy Oblast from Kursk Oblast, capturing Novenke and Melavoy, aided by North Korean forces and heavy drone use. The collapse of Ukraine's Kursk salient coincides with the suspension of US intelligence sharing on March 5, which Russian forces reportedly sought to exploit. The suspension of US military aid has worsened Ukraine's artillery disadvantage and may hamper Ukraine's ability to use F-16s effectively. France and Norway announced increased military aid to Ukraine, including artillery shells, missiles, and armored vehicles. European countries may supply Ukraine with commercial satellite imagery to compensate for the loss of US intelligence sharing. Russia, China, and Iran announced the start of the annual "Maritime Security Belt" naval exercise in Iran. SATURDAY–The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear, but it has affected Ukraine’s battlefield operations, particularly in Kursk. The suspension has weakened Ukraine’s ability to detect Russian aircraft, use advanced weapons, and defend against missile and drone attacks. France and other European states are working to fill the intelligence gap. Russian forces have destroyed bridges in Kursk to block Ukrainian withdrawals and complicate logistics. FRIDAY– Russian forces launched 67 missiles and 194 drones on March 6–7, damaging Ukrainian infrastructure and overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses. Russia has increased the number of Shahed and decoy drones since fall 2024, adapting to Ukrainian electronic warfare and increasing production capacity. Russia is likely intensifying long-range strikes to deplete Ukraine's air defense stockpiles while US military aid and intelligence sharing remain suspended.  Russian forces have stepped up attacks to exploit Ukrainian shortages. Russian mechanized assaults near Chasiv Yar reflect broader efforts to break through Ukraine’s "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast. Russian officials reject peace talks unless Ukraine accepts Moscow's pre-war demands. Lithuanian intelligence warns that Russia could launch a limited attack on a NATO country within three to five years. The UK transferred nearly $1 billion in funds from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Sumy and Kursk oblasts and near Siversk, Kurakhova, Robotyne, Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s Affinity for Putin Grows More Consequential Than Ever. President Donald Trump’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin is shaping U.S. foreign policy, with Trump’s actions consistently benefiting the Kremlin. Trump’s hostility toward Ukraine was evident in an Oval Office blowup with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom Trump accused of starting the war. Trump halted U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine and gutted pro-democracy programs opposed by Russia. He frames these moves as steps toward peace, though he pressures Ukraine more than Russia. Trump’s stance reflects “autocrat envy,” as he admires Putin’s unchecked authority. Russian officials have welcomed Trump’s policies. New York Times

U.S. Vetoes G-7 Shadow Fleet Task Force Plan, Signals More Change. The US rejected Canada’s proposal to form a G-7 task force to monitor Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers evading sanctions. The US also pushed to weaken language on Russia’s war financing and remove the word “sanctions” from a draft statement, while strengthening references to China’s maritime actions in the South China Sea. The move reflects President Donald Trump’s reassessment of US involvement in multilateral groups. Canada will host a G-7 summit next week. Trump’s shift has strained ties with allies, who failed to issue a joint statement on Ukraine’s invasion anniversary due to US objections to condemning Russia. Bloomberg

How Trump is driving the U.S. pivot to Russia – a timeline of the president’s moves. Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has reversed the U.S. approach to Russia's war on Ukraine, shifting toward alignment with Moscow. Here’s a timeline:

• Feb. 12 – Trump held a 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin to begin negotiations on ending the war, followed by a separate call to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seen as setting terms for Ukraine. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and urged Europe to take responsibility for any peace deal.

• Feb. 14 – Vice President JD Vance attacked European allies at the Munich Security Conference, mainly ignoring the Ukraine war.
• Feb. 18 – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks in Saudi Arabia on ending the war, excluding Ukraine and Europe.
• Feb. 19 – Trump blamed Kyiv for the war, pushed for elections in Ukraine, and called President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator."
• Feb. 24 – The US voted with Russia at the United Nations against a European-backed resolution condemning Moscow’s invasion.
• Feb. 28 – Trump and Vance publicly humiliated Zelensky during an Oval Office meeting, derailing a planned minerals deal and peace discussions.
• March 1 – The Trump administration ended focus on Russian cyber threats, instructing agencies to stop tracking Russian-linked attacks.
• March 3 and 5 – Trump suspended all military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into accepting US-led peace talks.
• March 7 – Trump said he finds it "easier" to work with Russia than Ukraine and believes Putin "wants to end the war." The Guardian

Canada’s Liberal Party picks banker and political outsider Mark Carney to succeed Justin Trudeau. He has stern words for President Trump. The Liberal Party of Canada has chosen former central banker Mark Carney to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and steer the nation through economic warfare and threats to its sovereignty from Washington.  Carney, 59, a political outsider who guided the Bank of Canada through the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit, won the leadership race on Sunday with 85.9 percent of the votes cast by more than 150,000  Liberal Party members. He is expected to be sworn in as prime minister early this week. In his acceptance speech Sunday evening Carney responded to President Donald Trump’s repeated taunts that the treaty that established the border between the two countries wasn’t valid and that the U.S. intended to annex its neighbor to the north as the 51st state. Trump has referred to Trudeau dismissively as “Governor Trudeau,” announced heavy tariffs on Canadian goods and equated the trickle of illegal drugs that enters the U.S. from Canada with gusher of fentanyl and meth from Mexico.  “America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Carney said Sunday. “We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.”  In ice hockey, Canada’s beloved sport, a player who “Drops the gloves” is hockey slang for signalling that . When Canada’s men’s hockey team defeated the U.S.A. 3-2 in overtime  Feb. 20  to win the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off Championship, Canadians were jubilant about more than the tournament victory. “So Americans should make no mistake,’’ Mr. Carney said. “In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.” CNN New York Times Globe and Mail Washington Post 

Armed man shot and wounded by Secret Service near White House. An armed man believed to be traveling from Indiana was shot and wounded by U.S. Secret Service agents shortly after midnight Sunday near the White House. President Donald Trump was at Mar-a-Lago in Florida at the time of the shooting. The incident unfolded when Secret Service officers received information from local police about an alleged “suicidal individual” who was traveling from Indiana. They located his car near the White House.  “As officers approached, the individual brandished a firearm and an armed confrontation ensued, during which shots were fired by our personnel,” the Secret Service said in a statement.  The man was hospitalized.  CNN Associated Press BBC Reuters 

Air Force intercepts small plane in no-fly zone near Mar-a-Lago.  Air Force fighter jets intercepted a civilian aircraft flying near President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home Sunday, as Trump finished a round of golf at his West Palm Beach golf course. North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said in a statement that the private plane entered the airspace labeled a no-fly zone under Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFR) The F-16s deployed flares to get the attention of the civilian pilot.  In a second incident, Air Force jets conducted an intercept on Saturday morning shortly after Trump arrived at the course. Federal officials maintain a permanent flight restriction over Mar-a-Lago that expands to a 30 nautical mile radius when the president is in residence. NORAD said it has responded to more than 20 incidents since Trump’s inauguration and blames civilian pilots for failing to check for airspace restrictions before taking off.  Associated Press 

U.S. Bolsters Position as World’s Top Arms Exporter. The U.S. accounted for 43% of global arms exports over the past five years, up from 35% previously, driven mainly by rising European defense spending after Russia invaded Ukraine. Almost two-thirds of arms imports by European NATO members came from the U.S., including F-35 jets and Patriot missile systems. By contrast, China’s arms imports fell 64% as it increased domestic production and Russia retained weapons for its war in Ukraine. France overtook Russia as the world’s second-largest arms exporter, with 10% of global shipments. Concerns about future U.S. reliability grew after President Donald Trump halted aid to Ukraine. Wall Street Journal 

FBI and Justice Department officials in regular contact with White House.  FBI director Kash Patel and senior officials at the Justice Department have deferred to Trump and his deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller since taking office, the Wall Street Journal reported.  Miller has regularly talked to top officials at the Justice Department, including about the FBI.  Such contacts were rare and carefully circumscribed in earlier administrations since the post-Watergate era. The Journal reported that Miller repeatedly called then-acting deputy attorney general Emil Bove to press for more FBI involvement in Trump’s immigration and deportation initiative. Bove ordered prosecutors to drop the bribery case against New York Mayor Eric Adams, saying Adams was needed to advance the immigration crackdown.  Wall Street Journal 

Noem launches leak probes, announces new immigration officials. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Sunday she would launch leak investigations, with polygraphs, to ferret out officials leaking information about operations to the media. “The authorities that I have under the Department of Homeland Security are broad and extensive and I plan to use every single one of them to make sure that we’re following the law, that we are following the procedures in place to keep people safe and that we’re making sure we’re following through on what President Trump has promised,” Noem said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”  Associated Press

Trump won’t rule out recession. President Donald Trump declined to rule out a recession this year as the economy stutters and the market sag. His advisers insisted Sunday that no recession was in sight, but Trump’s answer was not an unequivocal “no.” Asked by Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures” whether he was expecting a recession this year, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.” On his way back to Washington from Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, Trump was asked about projections of a  recession. “I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows?”  he said.   Washington Post  Reuters Financial Times Wall Street Journal  

Trump adviser hopes Canada fentanyl dispute will be solved by March. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Sunday he was hopeful a dispute with Canada over accusations of the deadly fentanyl opioid entering the U.S. across its northern border could be resolved by the end of March. His comments on ABC News's "This Week" suggested that tariffs due to be reimposed by U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of the month could be stayed further. Reuters   

Two men accused of links to Russian mob on trial in New York over Iran-backed plot to kill dissident. Rafat Amirov and Polad Omarov, two men accused of being members of a Russian organized crime group, will go on trial in the U.S. on Monday over an alleged Iran-backed assassination bid on Iranian dissident journalist Masih Alinejad in New York. Prosecutors claim that in 2021, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps hired Amirov and Omarov to kill Alinejad, who is known for her activism against Iran’s mandatory hijab laws and has exposed human rights abuses. Both defendants have pleaded not guilty to murder-for-hire and racketeering charges, denying ties to the Russian mob. The plot was uncovered in 2022 when a co-conspirator was arrested outside Alinejad’s home in New York with an AK-47 rifle. Prosecutors allege that a Revolutionary Guard general orchestrated the plot, hiring Amirov, who was then based in Iran. Alinejad, who survived a previous Iranian kidnapping attempt, expressed relief at testifying in court, calling it a "second life." The trial is expected to last two weeks and could reveal Iran’s ties to organized crime groups for carrying out attacks against dissidents abroad. The Justice Department has been actively pursuing cases of transnational repression, particularly against Tehran and Beijing, for targeting dissidents on American soil. Reuters New York Times 

Mexico's Sheinbaum rallies national pride after U.S. tariff reprieve.  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum led a rally in Mexico City’s Zocalo on Sunday, celebrating the suspension of U.S. tariffs after a recent phone call with President Donald Trump. Tens of thousands of supporters, many bused in by the ruling Morena party, gathered in a show of unity. Sheinbaum emphasized dialogue and cooperation, highlighting security achievements such as the recent transfer of 29 drug lords to the U.S. Trump agreed to delay tariffs on USMCA-covered goods until April 2, but up to 40% of Mexican exports remain at risk. Sheinbaum’s measured response has boosted her approval ratings since Trump’s January threats. Wall Street Journal Associated Press Reuters 

Cartels loom over Mexico's new system of electing judges. Mexico’s June 1 judicial elections will see over 6,000 candidates compete for judge and magistrate positions amid threats from cartels. Experts warn cartels may influence the elections, as seen in the December 11 assassination of Magistrate Edmundo Roman Pinzon in Acapulco. The government faces budget issues and lacks resources to protect candidates. Guerrero, a cartel stronghold, remains dangerous, with at least 22 judges killed since 2012. Former Supreme Court justice Jose Ramon Cossio warned cartels could coerce judges, undermining justice. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has no clear protection plan, raising concerns about fairness and safety in the election process. Reuters 

Venezuela’s Maduro says flights to repatriate migrants from U.S. 'affected'. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday said that scheduled flights for returning Venezuelan migrants from the U.S. have been disrupted by an “unexplained, tremendous commotion" linked to recent U.S. actions against Caracas. This follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision last week to revoke oil giant Chevron’s license to operate in the South American nation, citing a lack of electoral reforms and insufficient migrant returns. While Maduro did not directly name Chevron, he said that communication between the two countries had been damaged, and was affecting flights. He reiterated his long-standing opposition to U.S. sanctions, calling them an "economic war" designed to cripple Venezuela. Despite this, his government claims resilience while also attributing economic hardships and shortages to these measures. Reuters 

Ecuador rejects idea of receiving deported migrants of other nationalities, but will always accept its own nationals. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Sunday stated that his country will not accept deported migrants of other nationalities, but will always receive its own citizens. He also slammed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for allegedly rejecting flights of Venezuelan deportees from the U.S., calling it a "lack of empathy." His remarks followed Maduro’s claim that flights returning Venezuelan migrants were disrupted, after the Trump administration revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. Noboa accused “authoritarian and extremist regimes” of ignoring the struggles of those fleeing the “crisis they themselves caused." Reuters 

EUROPE

A Europe in Emotional Shock Grapples With a New Era. President Donald Trump’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin has left Europe in shock. Trump’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine after an Oval Office blowup with President Volodymyr Zelensky has heightened concerns. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz, have called for rapid military reinforcement and greater European independence from the U.S. Macron offered to extend France’s nuclear umbrella to allies, while Merz vowed to strengthen Germany’s defense industry. Trump’s actions have fueled far-right support across Europe and challenged the postwar Euro-American alliance. The shift has raised concerns that rewarding aggression could encourage further Russian expansionism. New York Times

Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build a half-million-man army. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced plans to increase Poland’s military to 500,000 troops and explore nuclear capabilities due to fears over U.S. President Donald Trump’s alignment with Russia and questioning of NATO commitments. Tusk said Poland is discussing protection under France’s nuclear umbrella, stressing, “This is a race for security, not for war.” He argued that Ukraine’s vulnerability after giving up its nuclear arsenal highlights the need for modern weapons. Tusk also plans mandatory military training for men, calling on Europe to strengthen its defense independently. “500 million Europeans are begging 300 million Americans to protect us from 140 million Russians,” Tusk said. Poland already spends 4.7% of GDP on defense — the highest in NATO — and aims to raise it to 5%. While reaffirming commitment to NATO, Tusk warned that Poland “cannot be powerless and helpless” if Trump alters U.S. policy toward Europe. Politico EU New York Times Financial Times

Germany's Merz wants European nuclear weapons to boost U.S. shield. German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said Sunday he wants talks with France and Britain about sharing nuclear weapons to strengthen Europe’s deterrence, but not as a substitute for the U.S. nuclear shield. Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, stressed the need to boost European defense amid Russian threats. Germany, bound by non-nuclear treaties, participates in NATO's weapons-sharing. Merz plans to form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany by Easter but needs Green Party support for financial and defense measures. The Greens want more funds for local governments and ring-fenced defense spending in exchange for their backing. Reuters

Can NATO survive without the United States? President Donald Trump’s skepticism toward NATO has raised doubts about the alliance’s future without U.S. support. Trump’s hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his suggestion that the U.S. may not defend NATO allies who “don’t pay” have alarmed European leaders. Despite this, NATO without the U.S. would still have over a million troops and modern weapons from 31 member states. Analysts say Europe could fill the gap if it invests in defense and unites its capabilities. Ben Schreer of the International Institute of Strategic Studies noted that Europe could create a powerful nuclear and conventional deterrent. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued Europe is stronger than Russia militarily and economically but must believe in itself. However, John Lough of Chatham House warned that U.S. disengagement could be irreversible, with Washington now viewing Europe more as a competitor than an ally. CNN

Two-thirds of arms imports to NATO countries in Europe come from U.S. Two-thirds of arms imported by European NATO members between 2020 and 2024 came from the US, up from 52% in the previous five years, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) data. This rise reflects Europe’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and highlights the continent’s deep reliance on American-made weapons. European leaders face growing pressure to reduce dependence on US arms, particularly with President Donald Trump pushing for Europe to take greater responsibility for its security. The European Commission has proposed a €150 billion loan fund to bolster European defense production. Industry leaders warn that reliance on US suppliers for systems like the F-35 fighter jet could leave Europe vulnerable if Washington reduces support. Despite efforts to strengthen European capabilities, European NATO members still have nearly 500 US combat aircraft on order, underscoring the deep military ties with Washington developed over decades. Financial Times

Faced with Russia, Turkey sees itself as essential to European security. Turkey is positioning itself as essential to European security after Washington’s reduced focus on the region. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after a recent London summit that "it is inconceivable to establish European security without Turkey." A senior Turkish defense official reiterated Thursday that Turkey might deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if necessary. Turkey, NATO's second-largest military, has supported Ukraine with drones and naval vessels since 2022 but maintains ties with Russia and hasn’t imposed sanctions. Its defense exports rose 29% to $7.1 billion in 2024, driven by Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkey controls Black Sea access through the Bosphorus and has 373,200 active troops. Ankara has also offered to host peace talks, balancing relations with Kyiv and Moscow. Analysts say Turkey seeks to deepen defense ties with Europe while protecting its strategic interests. France 24 

Can Germany spend its way out of industrial decline? Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has agreed to a major shift in economic policy, loosening Germany’s constitutional debt brake to increase defense spending and modernize infrastructure. The deal with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) will allow Germany to raise unlimited debt to equip the Bundeswehr, while the SPD secured a €500 billion, 10-year fund for infrastructure improvements. Merz called it a “whatever it takes” approach to counter Russian threats. This marks a departure from Germany’s post-World War II fiscal conservatism and military restraint. Economist Joe Kaeser said it could trigger a "confidence shock" and reverse Germany’s industrial decline. The plan could add over €1 trillion in debt over the next decade but is expected to boost growth to 0.7% in 2025. Defense firms like Rheinmetall are already shifting from automotive to military production. Merz stressed urgency, saying after March 25, far-right and far-left parties could block defense spending increases. Financial Times

How Overlooked European Defense Stocks Became a Hedge-Fund Home Run. European defense stocks have surged this year, with Germany’s Rheinmetall, Italy’s Leonardo, and France’s Thales gaining over 67%, outperforming the S&P 500. The rally stems from increased defense spending as President Donald Trump pressures NATO allies to boost military budgets while cutting U.S. support for Ukraine. Hedge funds like Sachem Head Capital Management and TCI Fund Management have profited from early bets on the sector. Germany’s decision to exempt defense from fiscal rules and the EU’s efforts to strengthen military capacity have further fueled the trend. Deem Global, founded by Asfy Nadeem in 2022, saw a 40% gain in its concentrated fund due to defense stock options. Sachem Head invested in Leonardo in early 2023 when shares were around €10; they now trade above €43. TCI has held a significant stake in Safran since 2012. Europe’s defense sector, long overlooked, is now seen as a key hedge against geopolitical instability. Wall Street Journal

Meet the defense giants that will rearm Europe as the EU eyes a massive military buildup. The European Union’s €800 billion ($867 billion) ReArm Europe Plan will boost defense spending to strengthen European security and reduce reliance on U.S. support. Several major European defense firms are expected to benefit. BAE Systems (UK), with €26.3 billion in revenue in 2024, produces Eurofighter Typhoons, F-35 components, and advanced artillery. Thales (France) earned €20.58 billion in 2024 and leads in electronic warfare and smart sensors. Rheinmetall (Germany) makes the Panther KF51 tank and air defense systems, reporting €8.83 billion in revenue. Leonardo (Italy) earned €20.9 billion, focusing on helicopters and UAVs. Saab (Sweden) produced $6 billion in revenue and is known for Gripen jets and submarines. Airbus (France) generated €12.4 billion from defense, specializing in fighter jets and transport aircraft. Safran (France), Fincantieri (Italy), and Dassault Aviation (France) are also positioned to benefit. Thales CEO Patrice Caine said Europe must “be independent from third parties” in defense. Fortune

Russian business boom helps lift Hungary's OTP Bank profit. Hungary’s OTP Bank boosted its 2024 profit by nearly 10% to over $2.9 billion, driven by a 40% rise in Russian profits to $372 million. Russian retail loans surged over 80% to 1.053 trillion forints, and deposits, mainly corporate, rose over 70% to 1.882 trillion forints. Deputy CEO Laszlo Bencsik said European firms are shifting funds from sanctioned Russian banks to OTP. Hungary’s government maintains close ties with Moscow, unlike other European banks that are pressured to cut Russian ties. Reuters

Romanian far-right candidate is barred from the May presidential vote. Romania’s central election authority barred far-right pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu from running in the May presidential re-run. The decision, which far-right leaders called undemocratic, can be challenged in Romania's constitutional court. Georgescu’s previous candidacy was annulled after Romania’s highest court cited Russian interference, which Moscow denies. Georgescu faces six criminal charges, including membership in a fascist organization and false campaign financing claims, which he denies. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration criticized the rejection as suppression of political opponents, and Elon Musk called the decision "crazy" on X. Georgescu’s supporters protested outside the election bureau. Reuters Associated Press The Guardian Kyiv Independent  Politico EU

Ireland urged to ‘wake up’ as Trump exposes economic reliance on the U.S. Ireland’s reliance on US investment faces growing risks as President Donald Trump threatens tariffs and tax penalties targeting American companies abroad. US firms, including Apple, Microsoft, Pfizer, and Meta, have driven Ireland’s record corporate tax revenues and a €13 billion budget surplus. However, Ireland’s slow infrastructure development and housing shortages could deter future investment. Apple scrapped a €850 million data center project in 2018 due to planning delays. Trump’s threats to impose 25% tariffs on European Union exports and target pharmaceutical exports, which comprise 61% of Ireland’s US-bound exports, could further weaken Ireland’s position. Financial Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran’s Supreme Leader refuses to negotiate under Western 'bullying.’ Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on Saturday that his nation will not be pressured into negotiations, rejecting demands from the U.S. to renegotiate a nuclear deal. His comments came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that he had sent a letter urging Tehran to negotiate. Trump, in an interview, said Iran had two options: military confrontation or a deal to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Khamenei, without directly mentioning Trump, accused “bullying” Western powers of using negotiations as a tool to impose their demands, insisting that Iran would “not accept their expectations.” The White House National Security Council echoed Trump's stance, stating that Iran should prioritize its people’s well-being over supporting terrorism. While Trump has expressed openness to a new deal, he has also reinstated “maximum pressure” sanctions that severely impacted Iran’s economy and oil exports. Since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has exceeded the agreement’s enrichment limits, with U.N. nuclear chief Rafael Grossi warning that diplomatic efforts to impose new restrictions are running out of time. Iran continues uranium enrichment close to weapons-grade levels. Khamenei reiterated Iran's stance against foreign coercion, rejecting demands related to defense capabilities, missile programs, and regional influence.  Reuters Associated Press New York Times The Guardian CNN 

U.N. mission says Iran would weigh talks with U.S. about worries over militarization of nuclear program. After assertions by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that Tehran will not negotiate under Western "bullying,” Iran's U.N. mission signaled potential openness to negotiations with the U.S. if the talks focus solely on addressing concerns about the militarization of its nuclear program. In a statement from the mission on Sunday, however, Iran made it clear that discussions aimed at dismantling its “peaceful” nuclear program would never happen. As Tehran accelerates its enrichment of uranium close to weapons-grade levels, it continues to insist that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Reuters Associated Press NPR 

Qatari PM warns attack on Iranian nuclear sites would contaminate Gulf water supply. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has warned that a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would devastate the Gulf, contaminating its waters and threatening life in Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. These desert nations, home to over 18 million people, depend entirely on desalinated water from the Gulf, making them highly vulnerable to any environmental fallout. Sheikh Mohammed stressed the need for diplomacy to avoid war, rejecting any military action against Iran. He stated that Qatar would not support a strike, as it could spread conflict across the region. Doha had previously assessed that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites could leave it without potable water in just three days. In response, it has built 15 massive water reservoirs to strengthen its emergency supply. The Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran’s only operating facility, sits on the Gulf coast, closer to Doha than to Tehran. Sheikh Mohammed emphasized the regional risks of military escalation, as U.S. President Donald Trump has reinstated sanctions and pushed for new negotiations with Iran, which Iran’s Supreme Leader refuses. Despite being a U.S. ally and hosting America’s largest Middle East military base, Qatar maintains ties with Iran, as both share the world’s largest gas field. Reuters Times of Israel 

Iraq trying to mitigate U.S. moves against Tehran, has no immediate alternative to Iranian energy imports. Iraqi energy officials said that their country is facing a major electricity shortage, as it lacks immediate alternatives to replace energy imports from Iran, especially with high summer demand. The U.S. revoked a waiver on Saturday that had previously allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, as part of Trump’s "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. In response, the Iraqi government is implementing urgent measures to cushion the impact on its power supply. Reuters Associated Press 

Hundreds killed in Syria’s coastal cities as Assad loyalists battle security forces. Syrian interim leader Ahmed Sharaa on Sunday pledged to hold accountable those responsible for the ongoing violent clashes between supporters of ousted President Bashar al-Assad and the new Islamist rulers. The conflict, which has killed over 1,000 people, mostly civilians, in a matter of days, has continued in Assad’s coastal stronghold. Sharaa accused “remnants of the former regime and their foreign backers” of inciting unrest to destabilize Syria and “drag our country into a civil war.” The U.S. and Russia have called for a closed-door U.N. Security Council meeting to address the escalating violence. Reports indicate that Turkish-backed factions were involved in executions targeting Alawites, Assad’s religious sect, though Ankara has not responded to the claims. The office of President Sharaa announced it was establishing an independent committee to probe the fighting and executions by both sides. The clashes have purportedly slowed down around the cities of Latakia, Jablah and Baniyas, but security forces were scouting the surrounding mountainous areas, where approximately 5,000 pro-Assad militants were hiding. Assad, who fled to Moscow late last year after being overthrown, left behind loyalist forces, who are now engaging in insurgency. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported one of the highest death tolls since the 2013 chemical attack, with revenge killings, executions, lootings, and destruction of villages worsening the situation. The new government has launched a crackdown on Assad’s supporters, while Kurdish forces, already in conflict with Turkish-backed groups, have urged Sharaa to hold extremist factions accountable. On Sunday, a state news agency reported the discovery of a mass grave of recently slain security forces near Assad’s hometown of Qardaha. Insurgents have also reportedly attacked infrastructure, disrupting electricity and water supplies. As Syrian forces struggle to control the violence, displaced civilians flee their homes, fearing further retaliation. Meanwhile, the U.N. and the U.S. have urged the interim leadership to ensure justice for the victims. Reuters Financial Times Wall Street Journal CNN Reuters Associated Press New York Times Reuters BBC 

Western powers throw support behind Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction. The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K. on Saturday endorsed an Arab-backed plan for reconstructing Gaza, which aims to improve living conditions and avoid forced Palestinian displacement. Originally proposed by Egypt, the $53 billion plan would rebuild the devastated enclave over five years and establish an administrative committee of independent Palestinian technocrats to govern after the war. U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel initially rejected the plan, instead maintaining support for a so-called “Middle East Riviera” concept that involved resettling Palestinians elsewhere, a plan that faced swift backlash. However, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff later acknowledged positive aspects of the Arab-backed plan, calling it a “good faith first step from the Egyptians.” Meanwhile, Muslim nations’ foreign ministers, meeting in Saudi Arabia over the weekend, rejected Trump’s resettlement proposal and reiterated support for the Palestinian-led administration for Gaza’s reconstruction. Politico.EU Reuters BBC Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera  

Israel severs remaining power supplies to Gaza in latest effort to move along ceasefire negotiations. Israel announced on Sunday that it is halting electricity supply to Gaza amid efforts to pressure Hamas into releasing hostages and disarming. “Enough with the talk. It’s time for actions!” declared Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who signed the order to sever the flow of electricity to the Gaza Strip. Hamas condemned the move. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government had already stopped providing most power to Gaza, since Hamas damaged infrastructure in its October 2023 attack. While Gaza relies mostly on generators and solar panels, the cutoff may shut down its desalination plant. Israel continues to supply water to the enclave, but may also cut that soon. This move is part of escalatory measures planned by Israel after cease-fire talks stalled. If these steps fail, the state may resume airstrikes and tactical raids. A full-scale re-invasion of Gaza remains a possibility. Hamas still holds 59 of the 250 hostages taken on October 7, 2023, with 24 believed to be alive. Hamas has demanded a permanent cease-fire in exchange for releasing hostages, which Israel refuses. Meanwhile, cease-fire negotiations continue in Cairo. Hamas has shown willingness to negotiate an interim deal to release American hostages in exchange for a cease-fire extension, talks for a second phase, and Palestinian prisoner releases. Israel had set a deadline for Saturday for the militant group to agree to release more hostages and has warned of gradual escalations leading back to full-scale war if negotiations fail. A delegation from Israel is expected to travel to Doha on Monday to continue talks, with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff joining on Tuesday. Wall Street Journal Associated Press Australian Broadcasting Corporation CNN The Guardian The Jerusalem Post  Reuters Al Jazeera Reuters 

72.5% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for Oct. 7 and resign, poll says.  A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 72.5% of Israelis believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7, 2023, attack and resign, with 48% calling for his immediate resignation and 24.5% saying he should step down after the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, 73% of Israelis support moving to the second phase of a ceasefire-hostage deal with Hamas, which would involve a complete withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent end to the war in exchange for the release of remaining hostages. Among Likud voters, 61.5% back advancing the deal despite opposition from other coalition parties. Times of Israel  

World Bank estimates $11 billion needed to rebuild Lebanon after Israel-Hezbollah war. The World Bank estimates Lebanon needs $11 billion to rebuild after the 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war from October 8, 2023, to December 20, 2024. Damage to physical structures totaled $6.8 billion, and economic losses reached $7.2 billion, with Lebanon’s GDP contracting by 7.1% in 2024. Housing suffered $4.6 billion in damage. Public financing for $3–5 billion is needed, while $6–8 billion must come from private sources. Over 4,000 people were killed, and thousands were displaced. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire began in late November, but Israel has not fully withdrawn from Lebanon, sparking tensions over a Jewish shrine visit. Associated Press World Bank Reuters  

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect. China imposed tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including 15% on chicken, wheat, and corn, and 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, and fruit, in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff increases on Chinese goods. Trump raised tariffs from 10% to 20% on $440 billion in Chinese imports. China also blocked 15 U.S. companies from buying Chinese products and restricted another 10 from operating in China. Despite rising tensions, both sides have signaled interest in a trade deal. China faces economic challenges but could adjust policies to offset U.S. tariffs, including shifting production to Vietnam and Mexico. New York Times

North Korea reveals nuclear-powered submarine. For the first time, North Korea has unveiled a nuclear-powered submarine under construction, a major security threat to adversaries such as South Korea and the U.S. On Saturday, state media released photos of what it called a “nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine”, with Kim Jong Un inspecting shipyards where warships are built. One South Korean expert estimates that the 6,000–7,000-ton submarine could carry about 10 nuclear-capable missiles, significantly enhancing the North’s ability to launch underwater attacks, which are hard to detect in advance. The project aligns with Kim’s 2021 weapons wishlist, which includes ICBMs, hypersonic weapons, and spy satellites. There are questions about how North Korea obtained the resources and technology to build a nuclear-powered sub, with experts speculating possible Russian assistance in exchange for North Korean weapons and troops for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The submarine could be feasibly tested and launched within one to two years. Pyongyang currently has 70-90 diesel-powered submarines, but most are outdated. While it previously claimed to have a “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” experts doubted its capabilities. The unveiling comes as the isolated regime ramps up hostile rhetoric against the U.S. and South Korea, ahead of their annual military drills. Kim stressed modernizing both surface and underwater warships to counter what he calls the “gunboat diplomacy” of hostile forces. Associated Press CNN New York Times

North Korea fires ballistic missiles, as South launches drills with U.S. Pyongyang fired multiple ballistic missiles off its west coast province of Hwanghae on Monday, coinciding with the start of annual U.S.-South Korea military drills. The launches occurred at 1:50 p.m. local time, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). In response, Seoul has increased surveillance and vigilance. North Korean state media criticized the drills between the South and the U.S., claiming they would worsen tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The joint exercises, called "Freedom Shield," will run until March 20 and focus on readiness against North Korean threats. Reuters France 24 Deutsche Welle 

Philippines, UK committed to rules-based order ‘amidst a lot of global volatility.’ British Foreign Minister David Lammy on Saturday affirmed the UK and the Philippines' commitment to a rules-based international order. During his official visit, he underscored their shared support for Ukraine and a free and open Indo-Pacific. Both countries signed a joint framework agreement to enhance cooperation in defense, regional security, and climate action, strengthening bilateral ties. Lammy and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo also highlighted their commitment to international law and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Manalo welcomed the UK’s deeper engagement in the region, including participation in joint military exercises. As tensions with China rise in the fiercely disputed South China Sea, Manila continues to expand security partnerships while maintaining its alliance with the U.S. Reuters

South Korean leader Yoon free, as trials continue after court cancels detention. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was released from a detention center on Saturday after prosecutors chose not to appeal a court decision canceling his arrest warrant on unprecedented insurrection charges. Despite his release, Yoon remains suspended as he faces ongoing criminal and impeachment trials over his botched martial law declaration on December 3. On Friday, the Seoul Central District Court ruled that Yoon’s arrest was legally questionable, prompting his supporters to celebrate his release. His lawyers hailed the decision as a victory for the rule of law, while opposition leaders criticized it, urging the Constitutional Court to remove Yoon from office. The public remains divided, with 60% supporting his removal and 35% opposing it, according to a Gallup Korea poll. Tens of thousands rallied for and against Yoon in Seoul, reflecting the deep political divide. Yoon, the first South Korean president to be arrested while in office, had been detained since January 15. The Constitutional Court is expected to rule soon on whether he will be reinstated or permanently removed. Reuters BBC The Washington Post CNN 

Myanmar junta chief claims election planned for December or January. Myanmar’s military regime on Saturday announced plans to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026, marking the first specific timeframe for the polls. The country has been embroiled in disorder and unrest since 2021, when the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's civilian government, sparking a widespread armed rebellion. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly delayed elections, citing security concerns. Critics dismiss the polls as a sham to keep the military in power, especially since many opposition parties have been banned. Min Aung Hlaing claims that 53 political parties have registered for participation. The junta has only conducted a voter census in 145 of 330 townships, reflecting its weakening control over the country. The upcoming election risks escalating violence, as both the military and opposition forces seek to expand territorial control. The ongoing conflict has devastated the economy and displaced more than 3.5 million people. Reuters Deutsche Welle BBC  

China rolls over $2 billion loan to Pakistan. China rolled over a $2 billion loan to Pakistan, according to Khurram Schehzad, adviser to Pakistan’s finance minister. Pakistan is working to stabilize its finances after securing a $7 billion IMF bailout in September 2024. The first installment is under review, with an additional $1 billion at stake if approved. Securing external financing has been a key IMF condition. Pakistan faces over $22 billion in external debt repayments in fiscal year 2025, including nearly $13 billion in bilateral deposits.  Reuters

Pakistan directs illegal foreigners, Afghan Citizen Card holders to leave country by March 31 or face deportation. Pakistan's interior ministry has ordered all "illegal foreigners" and Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders to leave the country by March 31, warning that deportations will begin on April 1. The government has previously blamed Afghan migrants for carrying out militant attacks and crimes, a claim Kabul denies. Pakistan launched its repatriation campaign in 2023, initially targeting undocumented migrants. More than 800,000 Afghans hold ACC cards, while 1.3 million are registered with Proof of Residence (PoR) cards, though their fate remains unclear. Since the repatriation drive began, over 800,000 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan. Pakistan has long hosted 2.8 million Afghan refugees, many of whom fled during decades years of conflict and violence. The deportation order also affects thousands of Afghans awaiting resettlement in the U.S. and other Western nations after fleeing the Taliban takeover in 2021. Reuters VOA

China’s ‘Gray Zone’ campaign to consolidate power. China’s subtle, determined campaign in the ‘gray zone’ is extending power across Asia. The Wall Street Journal has analyzed Beijing’s adroit operations just short of the line where conflict could be ignited.  It has been methodically intruding deeper into the territory of neighbors and rivals, probing, testing and expanding its turf.  To chart China’s relentless expansion, Journal reporters reviewed years of ship-movement data, satellite images, flight-tracking information and other measures of Chinese activity in the South China Sea and beyond. Their conclusion: “a clear intensification of tactics meant to intimidate rivals and deepen China’s control.  Wall Street Journal

AFRICA

U.S. willing to explore possibility of minerals partnerships with Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. State Department on Sunday said that Washington is open to discussing critical minerals partnerships with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), after a Congolese senator proposed a minerals-for-security deal last month. The DRC, rich in cobalt, lithium, and uranium, has been stuck in battle with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who have been accused of exploiting Congo’s mineral wealth. While no formal proposal has been detailed, Congo seeks to diversify its partners and attract American investment. A Congolese delegation has been in talks with U.S. officials, though some initiatives remain unofficial or in early stages. The U.S. aims to promote responsible investment in Congo’s mining sector but lacks state-owned companies like China, which currently dominates the region’s mineral supply chains. Experts suggest that any U.S. engagement would require alternative approaches beyond direct mining concessions. Reuters Financial Times Mining.com 

Battles rage in Congo’s east days after deadly attack on civilians. Clashes between M23 rebels and pro-Congo militias erupted on Sunday in Nyabiondo, eastern Congo, following a deadly attack nearby. The Rwanda-backed M23 has captured significant territory since January, and their advance shows no sign of slowing down. Residents and officials have reported intense clashes, with M23 seizing Nyabiondo after launching “a large-scale assault.” Last week, M23 fought a pro-government militia in the village of Tambi, leading to an attack that killed 40-70 civilians, according to a UN memo. Meanwhile, a pro-government militia faction reportedly switched allegiance to M23’s alliance. The rebels claim their goal is to take power in Kinshasa, accusing the government of failing to honor past peace deals. Analysts note that the group’s territorial expansion increases its access to mineral wealth. Reuters

With M23 advancing, Congolese government offers $5m reward to capture rebel leaders. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has offered a $5 million reward for assistance in the arrest of three rebel leaders, including Corneille Nangaa, head of the Congo River Alliance, and M23 leaders Sultani Makenga and Bertrand Bisimwa. All of them were sentenced to death in absentia for treason last year. A $4 million reward was also announced for two exiled journalists and others deemed accomplices. Despite the bounty, capturing them remains unlikely, as the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have overpowered the Congolese army and seized major eastern cities, such as Goma and Bukavu. President Félix Tshisekedi is instead focusing on creating international pressure to sanction Rwanda for supporting the rebels. A U.N. report stated that up to 4,000 Rwandan troops were aiding the M23 in DRC. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. BBC Al Jazeera  

Rebels linked to Islamic State launch attack in eastern Congo, kill 9 villagers. Islamic State-linked rebels with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacked the village of Ngohi Vuyinga in eastern Congo’s North Kivu province on Saturday, killing at least nine villagers and displacing dozens. The attackers used guns and machetes on people working in their farms, and several houses were burned, according to local officials. The death toll may rise, as some villagers remain missing. Eastern Congo has long been plagued by armed groups fighting for control of its mineral-rich lands, with the recurrent violence having displaced over 7 million people. Locals accuse the Congolese government and army (FARDC) of failing to protect civilians, questioning whether the military is effectively combating the rebels. “Every day people are attacked, civilians are killed under the helpless eye of our FARDC,” said one youth leader. Associated Press 

Conditions in South Sudan deteriorating at alarming rate, says U.N. Rising violence and political tensions in South Sudan are threatening the country’s tenuous 2018 peace deal, according to a U.N. rights body. The concern follows the arrest of two ministers and senior military officials loyal to Vice President Riek Machar by security forces aligned with President Salva Kiir. The arrests, which the government claims were “conflict with the law,” occurred amid clashes in Nasir between national forces and the White Army militia, a group largely from Machar’s Nuer ethnic group. The government accuses Machar’s forces of collaborating with the White Army to attack a military garrison, a claim his party denies. The U.N. has warned of a serious regression in peace efforts and urged leaders to refocus on democracy and human rights. The National Security Services confirmed additional arrests but withheld details. Tensions escalated further on Friday, when a South Sudanese general, a U.N. crew member, and approximately 27 soldiers were killed after a U.N. helicopter evacuating them from Nasir was attacked. The U.N. Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said the incident was "utterly abhorrent" and may constitute a war crime. The situation raises fears of renewed conflict in the country, which previously suffered a five-year civil war that claimed 400,000 lives. Nearly 20,000 peacekeepers from 73 countries serve in a U.N. mission in the nation. Reuters Reuters The Guardian UN News  

U.S. directs non-emergency personnel to evacuate South Sudan amid mounting violence. The U.S. State Department on Sunday ordered nonemergency personnel to leave Juba, South Sudan’s capital, due to escalating tensions and violence in the north. A travel advisory warned of ongoing fighting and widespread access to weapons among the population. The country’s information minister, Michael Makuei, rejected the warning, asserting that all is well in South Sudan and that the travel advisory is not necessary. The crisis follows clashes between an armed group and the national army, which led to the arrests of two ministers and a deputy army chief allied with Vice President Riek Machar. The army also surrounded Machar’s home. The U.N. Commission on Human Rights warned on Saturday that the situation threatens to derail the fragile peace process and urged leaders to refocus on stability, democracy, and human rights. Associated Press VOA Reuters CBS 

France initiates handover of military base to Senegal. France has begun its military withdrawal from Senegal, handing over two military facilities to the Senegalese government on March 7. This move follows President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s decision to expel all foreign troops from the country. A joint commission was set up last month to coordinate the withdrawal, and France has dismissed 162 Senegalese workers from its military bases in Dakar. The total number of remaining French service members in Senegal remains unclear. This withdrawal is part of a broader decline in French influence in West Africa, as countries like Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso have also expelled French forces. Senegal’s stance reflects a growing regional pushback against France’s colonial legacy and perceived interference. Paris has announced plans to sharply reduce its military presence across the continent, except in Djibouti, and may shift to defense training or targeted military support instead of maintaining permanent bases. Associated Press Reuters France 24 Euronews 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Investors think the Russia-Ukraine war will end soon. Investors are increasingly betting that Russia's war on Ukraine will end soon, with markets responding accordingly. European defense stocks, including Hensoldt, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall, have more than doubled since President Donald Trump’s re-election, while U.S. counterparts like Lockheed Martin have declined. Germany’s decision to exempt defense spending beyond 1% of GDP from debt limits and create a €500 billion infrastructure fund boosted European markets and the euro. Russian assets have rebounded, with the rouble up 25% this year and shares of firms like Rusal rising. The Economist

What the Dot-Com Bust Can Tell Us About Today’s AI Boom. The AI boom is drawing comparisons to the dot-com era, which peaked 25 years ago before collapsing. Despite the crash, the dot-com era laid the groundwork for today’s leading tech firms. AI companies are now valued in the hundreds of billions, with Nvidia alone worth $2.7 trillion. Like the dot-com boom, AI investments in GPUs and data centers could spur long-term productivity gains, despite near-term losses. History shows that while many AI startups may fail, successful innovations could reshape industries. Early smartphone pioneer General Magic failed in 2002, but its ideas influenced Apple and Android’s success years later. Wall Street Journal

Markets Finally Woke Up to Tariff Reality. Is This a Buying Opportunity? Investors are shifting focus from President Donald Trump’s promises of deregulation and tax cuts to fears over tariffs and trade uncertainty. U.S. stocks have dropped sharply, with Tesla down 45% from its December high and the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 both down over 10% from postelection peaks. Economic data has weakened, and business confidence is shaky due to shifting tariff policies. Trump’s proposed tax cuts are uncertain, with potential spending cuts reducing their impact. Deregulation is also uneven. While some see buying opportunities, many remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainty about Trump’s policies. Wall Street Journal 

Facing competition from Big Tech, states dangle incentives and loosen laws to attract power plants. States are racing to attract new power plants amid rising energy demand, mainly driven by artificial intelligence and manufacturing growth. President Donald Trump’s push to boost oil and gas drilling has led states to loosen regulations and offer incentives to accelerate power plant construction. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro wants to create an agency to fast-track projects and provide tax breaks, while Ohio, Indiana, and Maryland are considering similar measures. Missouri and Kansas are competing for investment through legislative changes. Critics warn that easing regulations could shift financial risk to consumers, but states argue that new capacity is essential for growth. Associated Press 

Trump says U.S. discussing TikTok sale to four different groups. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that his administration is in discussions with four different groups regarding the sale of TikTok, which is owned by China's ByteDance. He described all potential buyers as strong contenders and suggested a deal could happen soon. The uncertainty around TikTok's future follows a U.S. law enacted on January 19 that requires ByteDance to sell its popular platform or face a ban due to national security concerns. After taking office on January 20, Trump delayed enforcement of the law by 75 days through an executive order. The situation has drawn interest from several potential buyers, including former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, as analysts estimate TikTok could be worth up to $50 billion. TikTok and ByteDance have not yet commented on the ongoing negotiations. Bloomberg Reuters 

U.S. military’s mini space shuttle returns to Earth after orbiting for 434 days on a secret mission. The U.S. military’s X-37B mini space shuttle returned to Earth on Friday after a 434-day mission that began in December 2023. The secret mission was launched by SpaceX from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and involved military experiments. The shuttle landed at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, with the landing announced hours later. The X-37B demonstrated orbit-changing using atmospheric drag to conserve fuel. Lt. Col. Blaine Stewart called it “an exciting new chapter.” First launched in 2010, the reusable Boeing-made craft is 29 feet long with a 15-foot wingspan and has previously spent up to 908 days in space. Associated Press

White House cyber director’s office set for more power under Trump, experts say. The Office of the National Cyber Director (ONCD) is expected to gain more influence under President Donald Trump’s leadership, with Sean Cairncross likely to lead after Senate confirmation. Cairncross’s close ties to Trump are key to ONCD finally becoming the executive branch’s leading cyber policy authority. Under Biden, cyber policy was led by National Security Council (NSC) deputy Anne Neuberger, whose role Trump eliminated. Experts expect a shift toward more aggressive cyber operations, with the NSC handling foreign and offensive actions while ONCD focuses on domestic and defensive efforts. Experts say ONCD will now act as the government’s cyber “quarterback.” The Record 

Two U.S. Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China. Two active-duty U.S. Army soldiers, 1st Lt. Li Tian and Sgt. Jian Zhao, and former soldier Ruoyo Duan were arrested Thursday for allegedly selling military secrets to China. From 2021 to 2024, Tian and Duan conspired to sell classified information on U.S. weapons systems, including Bradley and Stryker vehicles. Zhao allegedly began sharing sensitive documents and military hardware in 2024, seeking $2,500 for each copy of certain documents. The arrests follow a similar case involving Sgt. Joseph Daniel Schmidt in 2023. All three face charges of conspiracy, bribery, and theft of government property. The Record Washington Post The Hill  

Bug affecting PHP scripts demands ‘immediate action from defenders globally’. Researchers said Friday that a vulnerability in PHP-CGI (CVE-2024-4577), initially used in cyberattacks on Japanese organizations, is now a global threat. GreyNoise warned that the bug allows remote code execution, with 79 known exploitation methods. Cisco Talos reported that an unknown attacker targeted Japan in January 2025 to steal credentials and establish persistence, using a command and control (C2) server. GreyNoise observed attack spikes in the U.S., Singapore, and Japan. Symantec reported exploitation in Taiwan last August. A patch was issued last summer, but GreyNoise urged immediate global action due to the expanded threat. The Record 

Texas border city declares state of emergency after cyberattack on government systems. Mission, Texas, declared a state of emergency after a February 28 cyberattack exposed city data and shut down IT systems. While officials said emergency services were operational, local reports said police couldn’t access state databases for license plates and IDs. Mayor Norie Gonzalez Garza urged Governor Greg Abbott to declare a broader state of emergency, citing risks to personal and government data. The attack is under investigation, and officials have not updated the public since Wednesday. Other Texas cities, including Matagorda County, McKinney, Coppell, and Richardson, have faced similar attacks over the past year. The Record

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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