Open Source Report for Monday, February 24, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, February 24, 2025

Zelensky Says US Minerals Deal Must Include Military Guarantees

Intel agencies, DOD, DHS & others tell workers to ignore Musk's “tell me what you did” email

Friedrich Merz is on track to be Europe’s most powerful leader as America turns its back

Israeli tanks penetrate West Bank for the first time in decades, escalating tensions

Xi affirms 'no limits' partnership with Putin in call on Ukraine war anniversary

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Trump & Europe: Historical Shift – or Bump in the Road? Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker downplayed fears of a permanent rupture in U.S.-Europe relations despite President Donald Trump’s recent pro-Russia stance and criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Volker noted that while Trump’s rhetoric aligns with Russian narratives, NATO’s structural ties remain intact. European leaders, angered by U.S. policy shifts, are discussing independent defense strategies. Volker stressed the need for deterrence against Russia, with U.S. involvement crucial for credibility. While tensions are high, he believes steady leadership and strategic interests will keep transatlantic relations from breaking down entirely, though significant diplomatic work is needed. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky says he is ready to resign for the sake of peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would be ready to step down if it guaranteed peace or NATO membership. “If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, I’m ready,” Zelensky said at a press conference on Sunday, the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership if that’s what it takes.” The comments came after US President Donald Trump described Zelensky as a dictator, joining Russia in questioning the legitimacy of a leader elected by a landslide in 2019. In reality, Ukraine has a long history of competitive elections compared to Russia, where Vladimir Putin has not allowed any credible challenge to his autocratic rule in 25 years and has ruthlessly suppressed opposition. Ukrainian law prohibits elections during wartime while living under martial law. Bloomberg The Telegraph CNN New York Times Reuters 

European leaders arrive in Kyiv on 3rd anniversary of full-scale war. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv on Monday, marking the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. They were soon joined by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also arrived. In total, 13 leaders are attending in person, while 24 will participate online, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Kyiv Independent New York Times

ANALYSIS–After three years of war in Ukraine, Europe’s security guarantees face the abyss. Ukraine’s fourth year at war is reshaping European security as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s statement that America is no longer Europe's security guarantor undermines decades of stability. The Kremlin is likely adjusting its strategy in response to the perceived transatlantic rift. On the battlefield, Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk report exhaustion, while a commander in Kursk describes relentless Russian drone attacks. Troops feel abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump, whose push for negotiations excludes Ukraine and signals possible territorial concessions to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces declining morale, recruitment struggles, and Trump’s repeated attacks. Russia’s propaganda, once dismissed, is gaining new traction through Trump’s rhetoric, raising concerns about his motives. European officials warn against rushed peace deals that could embolden Moscow. As Trump appears to favor Russian President Vladimir Putin, Europe scrambles to rethink its security framework while Ukraine remains on the defensive. CNN

Trump hands Russian economy a lifeline after three years of war. Russia’s economy, overheated by war spending and sanctions, faces a slowdown, but U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a Ukraine deal may offer Moscow economic relief. His negotiations, which exclude Ukraine and European allies, could ease sanctions and boost market confidence. The rouble has already surged on expectations of a deal. Russia faces a choice: sustain military spending at the cost of growth and inflation or shift resources away from war. High interest rates (21%) are curbing investment, and labor shortages persist. Trump’s approach offers a mix of incentives and threats, signaling that economic pressure could increase if Russia resists negotiations. Reuters

White House press secretary suggests Russia-Ukraine war could end this week. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Saturday that President Donald Trump is “very confident” a deal to end Russia’s war on Ukraine could come as early as this week. She noted ongoing negotiations involving National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is involved in discussions on a potential deal with Ukraine. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, told Fox News Radio on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not need to make a deal with Ukraine “because if he wanted, he'd get the whole country.” He also said that Putin hates President Volodymyr Zelensky “with a tremendous passion.” Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said preparations are ongoing for a meeting between Trump and Putin. The Hill Euronews 

Kremlin welcomes new U.S. approach after Trump criticism of Zelensky. The Kremlin praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for seeking to understand the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine, contrasting it with Europe’s refusal to engage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed Washington's shift, saying on Monday, “We hope that this analysis will help efforts in the context of conflict resolution.” He dismissed dialogue with Europe, citing new sanctions. Russian and U.S. officials will meet at the end of the week for talks on improving relations, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. The meeting, at the departmental head level, follows discussions between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 and a U.S.-Russia meeting in Riyadh on Feb. 18. Russia continues to assert control over nearly one-fifth of Ukraine, while Kyiv and its European allies reject any territorial concessions. Reuters Reuters

Russia says it wants a long-term Ukraine peace deal, not a quick U.S.-backed ceasefire. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow seeks a long-term peace deal over Ukraine, rejecting a U.S.-backed ceasefire that could lead to resumed fighting. Speaking on the war’s third anniversary, he reiterated Russia’s claim that NATO expansion and alleged mistreatment of Russian speakers justified its invasion. He acknowledged recent U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh but said they provided no clarity on President Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace plan. Kyiv and the West dismiss Russia’s justification as colonial aggression. Reuters

Zelensky Says U.S. Minerals Deal Must Include Military Guarantees. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that the U.S. is no longer demanding Ukraine commit $500 billion in a proposed minerals deal. However, he insisted that any agreement must include U.S. military support and security guarantees, not just economic arrangements. The proposal, introduced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv on Feb. 12, would grant U.S. access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth in exchange for an “economic security guarantee.” The plan is part of Washington’s push for a ceasefire following U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia last week. While negotiations continue, Zelensky said he may have little choice but to sign the deal. “If we are forced and we cannot do without it, then we should probably go for it,” he said. Zelensky also said more than 30 countries would participate in meetings on Monday, either in person in Kyiv or virtually, to support Ukraine’s defense The U.S.-Ukraine talks on the use of Ukrainian natural resources are in their "final stages" as "nearly all key details (have been) finalized, " Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration and Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna said on Monday. Associated Press Bloomberg Wall Street Journal  New York Times New York Times  Reuters New York Times  Reuters Financial Times The Guardian CNN Financial Times Bloomberg

Reuters: U.S. could cut Ukraine's access to Starlink internet services over minerals. U.S. negotiators have warned Ukraine that access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet system could be terminated unless Kyiv agrees to grant the U.S. stakes in its critical mineral resources, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. This ultimatum came after President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected an initial proposal from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which demanded up to $500 billion in mineral wealth as repayment for $119 billion in wartime aid without offering security guarantees. During subsequent meetings, U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg reiterated the threat. Starlink has been indispensable for military communications and civilian infrastructure after Russian attacks disrupted traditional networks. Reuters

Musk denies Reuters report. Elon Musk, the owner of Space X, denied that American negotiators threatened to disconnect Ukraine from his Starlink satellite internet system if Kyiv refuses a minerals agreement with the U.S. "That's not true. Reuters is lying. They are second only to AP (Associated Propaganda) as traditional news liars,” Musk wrote Saturday on his social media platform X. Poland is paying for and will continue to finance Ukraine’s access to Starlink, according to Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski. “I can’t imagine that someone can decide to break a business contract for a commercial service to which Poland is a party,” Gawkowski said. Musk heads President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an organization tasked with eliminating waste from the federal budget. Musk wants to shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which provides aid to Ukraine. He has also amplified Russian disinformation and mocked President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainska Pravda. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg 

A look at the Ukrainian minerals that Trump wants. Ukraine has vast reserves of critical minerals—including lithium, titanium, uranium, and rare earths—that the U.S. sees as strategically valuable. However, extracting these minerals presents challenges. Many deposits are based on outdated Soviet-era surveys and remain untapped. Developing new mines requires extensive research and infrastructure, with lithium mining alone needing an estimated $350 million in investment before production can begin. Also, 20% to 40% of Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves lie beyond reach in Russian-occupied territories. Russian officials have cited these resources as justification for holding onto occupied land. Ukraine’s ability to capitalize on its mineral wealth remains constrained by war, investment needs, and geopolitical uncertainty. Wall Street Journal

Trump criticizes Ukraine, France, and the UK for not ending war. Speaking at the White House and in a Fox News Radio interview on Friday, President Donald Trump criticized France, the UK, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for failing to end the war. He said French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer “didn’t do anything” to stop the fighting. Trump took a harsher stance on Zelensky. “I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards. And you get sick of it,” he said. Trump said he has had “very good talks” with Russian President Vladimir Putin but “not such good talks with Ukraine.” He also said Zelensky’s presence is not essential in talks. “He makes it very hard to make deals.” Trump believes he could get Russia to agree to release 20,000 Ukrainian children abducted by Moscow's forces and forcibly transferred to Russia. "It's pretty tough stuff, but I believe I could do that," he said. Sky News Kyiv Independent Associated Press The Hill 

Trump Wants to End the War Fast. Russia Has Its Own Timetable. Russia sees negotiations with the U.S. as a means to break its isolation while using battlefield gains to dictate terms. Vladimir Putin, signaling a drawn-out process, rejects a cease-fire, fearing Ukraine would use it to rearm. He insists on Kyiv’s neutrality and military limits. Trump’s eagerness for a quick deal contrasts with Russia’s slow-play strategy. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue advancing, with hawks in Moscow pushing for more territorial gains. Trump’s criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky suggests he may pressure Kyiv rather than Moscow, but Russia wants prolonged U.S. engagement rather than a swift resolution that sidelines it. Wall Street Journal

Can Zelensky salvage his relationship with Trump and save Ukraine? President Volodymyr Zelensky’s fallout with President Donald Trump is one of the toughest challenges faced by the Ukrainian leader. Trump blames Zelensky for the war and demands half of Ukraine’s mineral wealth for continued U.S. support. With Kyiv’s trust in Washington fraying, European officials urge Zelensky to repair ties, fearing that Trump’s overtures to President Vladimir Putin could force Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace deal. Trump’s refusal to criticize Putin, coupled with his transactional foreign policy, aligns with Russia’s interests, raising concerns that Ukraine could be sidelined. Some in Kyiv believe Zelensky’s missteps worsened relations. “I think that in some ways, there is an increasing risk of this becoming a case of the Americans trying to throw Ukraine under the bus, precisely because Zelensky is taking this personally,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Washington Post New York Times

After years of firm support, 10 days upended the U.S. approach to Ukraine. In just 10 days, U.S. policy on Ukraine shifted dramatically under President Donald Trump, unsettling Kyiv and its European allies. After a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12, Trump announced plans for U.S.-Russia peace talks—excluding Ukraine and Europe. The move signaled a sharp break from past U.S. support. At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. officials all but ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine without offering U.S. security guarantees as Trump administration officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, signaled Ukraine is Europe’s responsibility. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials met on Feb. 18 in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine, reinforcing fears of a U.S.-Russia settlement at Kyiv’s expense. Trump escalated attacks on President Volodymyr Zelensky, labeling him a "dictator" and falsely blaming Ukraine for starting the war. As Kyiv scrambles to secure European backing, Russia has praised Trump’s willingness to negotiate, capping a stunning U.S. policy reversal. Associated Press CNBC Reuters

As Trump turns on Ukraine, Trudeau tells Zelensky: ‘Your fight is our fight.’ As U.S. President Donald Trump retreats from supporting Ukraine, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is stepping up, reaffirming Canada’s commitment in a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trudeau emphasized that “your fight is our fight” and has worked with European allies to counter Trump’s shift toward Moscow. Beyond rhetoric, Trudeau has backed Ukraine with military aid, sanctions on Russia, and leadership in the G7. Trudeau’s exit raises questions about whether his successor, likely Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, will keep the commitment. Chrystia Freeland, a strong Ukraine advocate, is running to replace Trudeau but faces slim chances. While Trump falsely claims Ukraine started the war and threatens to absorb Canada as the 51st state, Trudeau positions Canada as a steadfast ally to Ukraine. Politico

In a reversal of sorts, Trump acknowledges Russia attacked Ukraine. During an interview with Fox News Radio on Friday from the White House, President Donald Trump reversed his previous stance and acknowledged that Russia had invaded Ukraine. Pressed on his earlier claim that Ukraine had "started" the war, he conceded, "Russia attacked, but they shouldn't have let him attack," blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former U.S. President Joe Biden for failing to prevent it. Reuters Fox News Radio

U.S. envoy praises Zelensky after Trump’s censure of the Ukrainian leader. After days of tensions between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg struck a more conciliatory tone on Friday, calling Zelensky “an embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war” after a day of talks in Kyiv. His praise contrasted sharply with Trump’s recent remarks, including calling Zelensky an unelected dictator and urging him to “move fast” to secure peace or risk losing his country. Associated Press 

Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by Russia. At the Support Ukraine summit on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned against a rushed peace deal without security guarantees, revealing he provided U.S. President Donald Trump with a list of 25 ceasefires Russia has violated since 2014. He criticized Trump’s diplomatic outreach to Moscow, which excludes Ukraine, and denounced Trump's portrayal of him as a “dictator.” Ukrainian officials fear a weak ceasefire would allow Russia to regroup, stressing that lasting peace requires strong security commitments. Kyiv Independent

All-for-all prisoner exchange could be step toward peace, Zelensky says. At the Support Ukraine summit on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia releasing all Ukrainian captives would be a step toward peace, reiterating Ukraine’s readiness for an all-for-all prisoner exchange. His remarks come as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for a ceasefire. Ukraine estimates over 16,000 civilians and 19,500 children have been forcibly taken by Russia. While Ukraine proposed a mass exchange in 2024, Moscow has not agreed. The latest prisoner swap occurred on Feb. 5, with 150 Ukrainians freed. Kyiv Independent

Russia could concede $300 billion in frozen assets as part of Ukraine war settlement. Russia may concede up to $300 billion in frozen sovereign assets held in Europe as part of a potential Ukraine war settlement, sources told Reuters. Moscow would insist that some of the funds be allocated to rebuilding Russian-occupied territories, which it claims as its own. The proposal remains in the early stages. Reuters

EU Seeks Ways to Seize Part of Russia’s Frozen $280 Billion. The European Union is intensifying efforts to seize Russia’s frozen $280 billion in central bank assets to support Ukraine. Officials are exploring using the assets as collateral for an International Claims Commission, which would determine the damages Moscow owes. Some EU states oppose confiscation over legal and economic risks. Meanwhile, the G7 has already leveraged the assets' profits for a $50 billion Ukraine loan. Talks on establishing the claims commission will begin on March 24. Bloomberg

European Defense Chiefs to Hold Emergency Meeting on Ukraine. France and Estonia will host a virtual meeting of European defense ministers on Monday to coordinate increased support for Ukraine amid concerns over the potential withdrawal of U.S. military aid. Around a dozen UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, the European Union, and NATO officials will participate. The meeting coincides with a visit to Kyiv by European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, marking three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Meanwhile, U.S.-Russia peace talks have raised fears about security implications. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Washington next week to discuss the issue with Trump in separate meetings. Bloomberg New York Times

EU leaders plan €20 billion Ukraine aid package as Trump turns against Zelensky. The European Union is preparing a €20 billion military aid package for Ukraine, consisting of artillery shells, missiles, and financial support. Initially projected at €6-10 billion, the package has grown amid diplomatic negotiations and could increase further. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is coordinating the aid and will likely rely on pooled contributions from member states rather than an official EU-wide initiative. The proposal comes as Washington shifts its stance on Ukraine, with U.S. officials reluctant to continue military aid. EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to finalize discussions. Politico EU Bloomberg

Kallas to visit US to meet Rubio, discuss peace efforts in Ukraine. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will visit the U.S. on Tuesday to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio and discuss ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Speaking ahead of an EU ministerial meeting, Kallas criticized U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia that excluded Ukraine and the EU. Responding to President Donald Trump’s claim that Volodymyr Zelensky is a “dictator,” she pointed out Russia’s lack of fair elections and noted that Russian propaganda is influencing U.S. discourse. Kyiv Independent

Germany says 'blackmail' of Ukraine will bring more war. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned Friday against pressuring Ukraine into a peace deal that forces Kyiv to make concessions to Russia, calling it "blackmail" and a prelude to more war. Baerbock criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s sidelining of President Volodymyr Zelensky in talks. "Nobody can decide on war and peace over the heads of the Ukrainians or us Europeans," Baerbock said. Deutsche Welle

Trump's Ukraine remarks 'shocking,' echo Russian narratives, German opposition leader says.  German opposition leader Friedrich Merz on Friday criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements on Ukraine, calling them "shocking" and aligned with Russian narratives. Merz condemned Trump’s claims that President Volodymyr Zelensky is a "dictator" and responsible for the war, describing this as "a classic substitution of the criminal for the victim.” Kyiv Independent

Ahead of UN showdown on Ukraine, US urges countries to vote no on rival European bid. The United States is urging the United Nations General Assembly to back its resolution marking the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine while rejecting amendments and a rival text from Ukraine and European allies. The U.S. draft, introduced Friday, avoids referencing Ukraine's sovereignty or territorial integrity, instead calling for a swift end to the war and lasting peace. Russia seeks to amend it by citing “root causes,” while Britain and 24 European Union states want language reinforcing Ukraine’s sovereignty. The 15-member Security Council will also vote on the U.S. text. The push follows U.S.-Russia talks and tensions over Trump’s mediation efforts. Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press Washington Post

Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko calls for political unity in Ukraine. During a visit to Brussels on Friday, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko called for political unity in Ukraine amid growing tensions with the U.S. He urged support for President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite their past disputes, emphasizing that holding elections during wartime would be destabilizing. “An election campaign could destroy the country from within,” Klitschko warned, citing millions of displaced Ukrainians and soldiers on the front lines. Euronews

Ukrainian soldiers dismiss Trump-Russia peace push. Ukrainian soldiers have dismissed U.S.-Russia peace talks held in Saudi Arabia, expressing skepticism about any deal made without Kyiv’s involvement. Speaking from a training base in southeastern Ukraine on Friday, troops said they see no quick end to the war. An infantryman remarked, “You can’t be betrayed by a person you didn’t expect anything from,” referring to U.S. President Donald Trump. Another soldier stated, “Maybe they decided something over there – but that’s their opinion.” Another soldier vowed, “We will fight till the end.” Reuters

In a Russian town, a monument to fallen soldiers shows the toll of three years of war. In Semibratovo, Russia, a memorial carved in black marble honors 11 local men killed in Ukraine, a stark reminder of the war’s toll. The town of 6,000 has over 100 men serving, with new names continuously added to the monument. Erected by a school, the memorial aims to instill awareness that "this war is a terrible thing," says veteran leader Viktor Sidorov. As losses mount, flags of Wagner and Storm-Z units flutter over fresh graves. Reuters

Ukrainian soldiers are returning to battle after amputation. Wounded Ukrainian soldiers, many amputees, are returning to battle, driven by duty and the grim reality of war. Andrii Rubliuk, who lost both arms and a leg, rejoined special forces to train recruits and monitor enemy drones. Others, like Maksym Vysotskyi and Oleksandr Puzikov, have taken on new roles, from drone operations to war psychology. With 380,000 wounded and 46,000 dead, Ukraine faces mounting battlefield and diplomatic challenges as U.S. support wavers. For these soldiers, recovery is ongoing, but when the war ends, they plan to leave military service behind and rebuild their lives. Associated Press

Russia Talks Peace While Troops Threaten New Region in Ukraine. As U.S.-Russia peace talks begin, Russian forces are nearing the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, just three miles from its border. If they cross in, it will mark a morale blow to Ukraine and complicate any territorial negotiations. The advance follows months of Russian gains in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces have been steadily retreating. Civilians in frontline areas are evacuating, fearing intensified bombardment. Some hope a cease-fire might halt the Russian push, but Ukrainian troops and officials remain wary. "We’ve been through this before," said a refugee from Donetsk, preparing to flee westward as fighting moves closer. New York Times

Is Putin’s brainwashing of Ukrainians even a crime? Russia’s occupation of Ukraine includes a systematic effort to erase Ukrainian identity. In Vovchansk, teachers hid books before Russian soldiers burned Ukrainian texts and imposed a Russian curriculum. Teachers faced coercion, including torture, to comply. Moscow’s broader plan includes banning Ukrainian language and culture, replacing libraries and museums, and indoctrinating children through militarized youth programs. International law does not explicitly define “cultural genocide,” complicating accountability. Legal scholars are exploring new frameworks, including violations of freedom of thought, to hold Russia responsible. Sanctions and legal cases are emerging, but Moscow’s repression recalls colonial strategies stretching back centuries. The Economist

Finnish Peacekeepers Ready to Go to Ukraine. A record number of Finnish reservists have volunteered for a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, with over 3,000 applying in 2024—the highest in 20 years. While Finland has established procedures for United Nations-led operations, discussions remain premature as Ukraine is still at war. The U.S. is pushing for peace talks, with European leaders exploring peacekeeping options. Kyiv estimates 100,000 troops would be needed, though allies are considering deploying 25,000-30,000 as part of a ceasefire plan initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron. Militarnyi

Fico says Zelensky 'needs this war,' justifies Russia's full-scale invasion. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico defended Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the Conservative Political Action Conference in the U.S. on Friday, claiming Moscow had “serious security reasons” due to NATO expansion. He echoed U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of President Volodymyr Zelensky, alleging the Ukrainian leader “needs this war” to stay in power. Fico also accused the European Union of prolonging the war and weakening Russia. His remarks follow escalating tensions with Ukraine, including calling Zelensky Slovakia’s “enemy” in January. Kyiv condemned his statements as Kremlin propaganda. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine expects further F-16 deliveries from the Netherlands, Zelensky says. Ukraine expects continued F-16 deliveries from the Netherlands, which pledged 24 jets, with initial arrivals in summer 2024. Denmark has committed 19, starting deliveries last year. Norway plans to supply 6 to 22 aircraft, while Belgium has announced contributions. The U.S. has supported pilot training but has not directly committed jets. President Volodymyr Zelensky, after meeting Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof on Saturday, reaffirmed Ukraine’s need for stronger air defenses. “The sky over Ukraine must be closed and safe," he said. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches war's largest drone attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says. Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war, sending 267 Iranian-made drones overnight, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Sunday. Ukraine’s air force reported downing 138 drones, with another 119 disrupted. Damage was reported in five regions. Zelenskiy urged allies to remain united, citing nearly 1,150 drones and 1,400 bombs launched in the past week. Reuters

Russian missile attack in Kryvyi Rih kills 1, injures 5. A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih late Saturday killed one person and injured five, including a woman in critical condition. The attack damaged 12 apartment buildings, a retirement home, a church, and other infrastructure. Fires were extinguished. Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown, remains a frequent target of strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, kill at least 2. Russian airstrikes on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, killed at least two civilians and injured four on Saturday. The attack damaged homes, industrial facilities, and infrastructure. More casualties are possible. Evacuations from frontline areas are intensifying amid Russian advances. Kyiv Independent

A drone attack kills one outside Kyiv. A Russian drone attack killed a rail worker in the Boryspil district outside Kyiv and caused fires and damage in the capital, authorities said on Saturday. Drone fragments struck buildings in Kyiv’s Solomyanskyi district. In Zaporizhzhia, a Russian guided bomb injured three in Huliaipole following a fatal strike Thursday. Reuters

ANALYSIS-Ukraine’s losing position. President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russia have unsettled Kyiv, but they may bring a pragmatic end to the war. With Ukraine struggling on the battlefield and Western support in flux, Trump’s blunt terms—no NATO membership and no full territorial recovery—reflect realities. While his opening demands were politically charged, they opened room for compromise. A potential deal could see Ukraine securing European Union membership, foreign peacekeepers enforcing a ceasefire, and reconstruction aid in exchange for Russia retaining occupied territories, winning a guarantee of no NATO membership for Ukraine, and an easing of Western sanctions. Such a settlement would offer an imperfect but viable path to peace and stability. Tablet

ANALYSIS–How Trump is helping Putin achieve the aim of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Analysts say President Donald Trump’s rhetoric aligns with Kremlin narratives; aiding Russia’s original goal of regime change in Ukraine. By labeling President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and demanding elections amid war, Trump echoes Moscow’s longstanding push to destabilize Ukraine and install a pro-Kremlin leader. Experts warn elections under wartime conditions would allow Russian interference and weaken Kyiv. If pressured into premature elections, Ukraine could see political chaos, enabling Russia to achieve its invasion goals through politics rather than military force. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–Three Years On, What’s Next for Ukraine and Europe? Foreign Policy sought insights from nine experts on the shifting dynamics between the United States, Russia, and Europe amid U.S. talks with Moscow to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. The contributors are Daniel Fried, Ulrich Speck, Agathe Demarais, Nathalie Tocci, Garvan Walshe, C. Raja Mohan, Jo Inge Bekkevold, Mick Ryan, and Keir Giles. Foreign Policy

ANALYSIS– Why No One Is Winning in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has reached a stasis, with Russia making small territorial gains at a high cost while both sides achieve parity in long-range strikes. The conflict has transformed military strategy, particularly in drone and AI warfare, forcing rapid adaptation. Ukraine’s drone innovations have enabled deep strikes into Russian targets. Meanwhile, high casualties strain both sides, with Ukraine facing manpower challenges. The war highlights the need for Western military adaptation, mobilization, and sustained support to ensure Ukraine can continue resisting Russian aggression. Foreign Affairs

ISW Fact Sheet on Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War released its “fact sheet” on Ukraine on Friday. The highlights: President Volodymyr Zelensky does not risk losing all of Ukraine. Most Ukrainian cities have not been destroyed. Ukrainian law prohibits holding elections in wartime. Ukraine has not suffered millions of losses. Europe provides about as much direct aid to Ukraine as the United States. European loans to Ukraine are backed by income from frozen Russian assets, not Ukraine. Ukraine did not misuse or lose half of the aid the U.S. has provided. Ukraine repeatedly invited President Vladimir Putin to negotiate in early 2022. Institute for the Study of War

ISW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire. Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified efforts to prevent independent veterans’ organizations from emerging, fearing they could destabilize his regime. Since late 2022, the Kremlin has launched state-controlled veterans’ initiatives, including the Defenders of the Fatherland State Fund and the "Time of Heroes" program, to co-opt returning soldiers and integrate them into the state apparatus. These programs aim to militarize Russian society, replace skeptical elites with loyalists, and suppress potential dissent. The Kremlin fears a repeat of the “Afghan syndrome” crisis that followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, which contributed to political instability. By centralizing veterans’ benefits and restricting independent organizations, Putin seeks to ensure long-term control over veterans while avoiding mass demobilization. This strategy suggests Russia is unlikely to scale down its war effort, even if a ceasefire is reached. Western policymakers must consider these factors when assessing Russia’s negotiating stance and long-term military posture. Institute for the Study of War

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Feb. 21-Sunday, Feb. 23. SUNDAY–U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff called the 2022 Istanbul protocols “guideposts” for negotiations, though they would amount to Ukrainian capitulation. Russian leaders favor the Istanbul framework because it would force the West to accept all of Russia’s demands. The 2022 draft treaties required Ukraine to abandon NATO aspirations, remain neutral, and restrict its military capabilities. Ukraine is unlikely to accept such terms, as they would mean surrender. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed his commitment to democracy and elections after the war. Zelensky emphasized that European states should be involved in peace talks and reiterated NATO as Ukraine’s best security guarantee. Ukraine continues expanding domestic defense production, producing millions of drones and increasing artillery production. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Kirill Dmitriev as a special envoy for foreign investment. Russia launched a record drone attack on Ukraine ahead of the war’s third anniversary. Iran and North Korea continue supplying Russia with drones and ammunition. Russian forces systematically execute Ukrainian prisoners of war in violation of international law. SATURDAY–Russia continues deploying wounded and medically unfit soldiers to the front to counter personnel shortages. FRIDAY–Russian state media and Kremlin officials use selective statements from U.S. officials to fuel distrust between Ukraine and the United States while amplifying narratives that discredit Ukraine among its allies. U.S. officials continue reaffirming their commitment to Ukraine and emphasizing the need for a lasting and just resolution to the war. Russian forces eliminated the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove and are redeploying elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army from that area to the Toretsk direction. Russian forces are using their control of Velyka Novosilka to push further north toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. Ukraine is expanding its domestic production of military equipment, including artillery, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and drones. President Vladimir Putin promoted Black Sea Fleet Commander Sergei Pinchuk to admiral and Eastern Group of Forces Commander Andrei Ivanayev to colonel general. The Russian Ministry of Defense is reportedly reclassifying former penal recruits as deserters to avoid financial obligations amid growing economic strain from the war.

Battlefield update: Russian forces made gains near Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Siversk, and Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukraine advanced near Toretsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Analysis:  How Trump has pivoted toward Russia and why his base is fine with that.  Part of the Republican base admires Vladimir Putin’s Russia, imagining it as Christian, conservative, pro-family and anti-woke.  It sees Ukraine as a corrupt puppet of the hated American left.  This vision of the world has been promoted by Russian propagandists, ultra-conservatives in the U.S. and TV personality Tucker Carlson.  At the same time, American conservatives are rejecting Western Europe as repressive, elitist and welcoming of immigration. This evolution in popular sentiment allows President Donald Trump to express his own admiration for Putin’s strength and control over his country. These are conclusions of the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of the political environment that has allowed Trump to negotiate with Putin and insult Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders.  Wall Street Journal  Financial Times  

Trump purges Pentagon brass, starting at the top. President Trump fired Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, in an unprecedented  purge of the Pentagon Friday night.  Brown, an Air force pilot and the second African American to become chairman, is being replaced by retired three-star Air Force general, Dan Caine.  Trump also fired Adm. Lisa Franchetti, Chief of Naval Operations; Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. James Slife, and the top lawyers for the Army, Navy and Air Force. In a message on Truth Social, Trump said the military’s leadership is too focused on diversity issues and wasn’t aligned with his “America First” movement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been advocating firing General Brown for months to rid the military of its “woke” culture.  Reuters Associated Press CNN New York Times  

Intel agencies, DOD, Homeland Security, others tell workers to ignore Musk's “tell me what you did” email.  Several government agency leaders have instructed their staffs to ignore a mass email to federal workers on Saturday afternoon with the subject line: “What did you do last week?” and instructions to send a list of five accomplishments to a generic government email address.  Elon Musk, President Donald Trump’s advisor, posting on X Saturday afternoon, added a threat: “Consistent with President @realDonaldTrump’s instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.” On Sunday Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sent an email instructing U.S. intelligence agency personnel not to respond, citing the agencies’ sensitive and classified work. Employees of the Defense Department, FBI and Department of Homeland Security got similar emails.  FBI Director Kash Pate wrote, “The FBI, through the Office of the Director, is in charge of all of our review processes, and will conduct reviews in accordance with FBI procedures. When and if further information is required, we will coordinate the responses. For now, please pause any responses.” The Washington Post quoted one military officer as warning, “Even if people don’t send classified information, the aggregation of all this information in one place would become classified information, which is a national security violation.” Chaos reigned throughout the government. Tibor P. Nagy, acting undersecretary of State for management, sent a message to the department’s workforce that “no employee is obligated to report their activities outside of their department chain of command.” Throughout Sunday, Musk doubled down, insisting on X that “non-existent people or the identities of dead people” were posing as government workers.  Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called Musk’s demand “absurd” and said, “If Elon Musk truly wants to understand what federal workers accomplished over the past week, he should get to know each department and agency and learn about the jobs he’s trying to cut.” Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera Time BBC CNN Washington Post   Washington Post X

Why Trump plucked Dan Caine out of retirement to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. President Donald Trump has told the story many times: he met Dan Caine in Iraq in 2018, when the three-star Air Force general and F-16 pilot was deputy commander of a special operations task force targeting the Islamic State. Trump has said Caine assured him that ISIS could be destroyed in just a week.  "He's a real general, not a television general," Trump said in Miami Wednesday.   Unlike others who held the job, Caine has not led a combatant command or a service branch. Trump wrote on Truth Social, he was "passed over for promotion by Sleepy Joe Biden. But not anymore!" Before he retired last year, Caine was the CIA’s associate director for military affairs.  Reuters New York Times Washington Post CNN NPR Reuters 

Analysis:  Rubio was tough on Putin and other authoritarians until he went to work for Trump.   As a senator, Marco Rubio was a national security hawk who prided himself on speaking truth to tyrants and defending human rights. He called Russian president Vladimir Putin bloodthirsty, a butcher, a monster” and said President Biden should say the U.S. would support the Ukrainians “as long as they are willing to fight.” Now that he’s in charge of advancing President Donald Trump’s agenda, he’s in the awkward position of muting his rhetoric and sometimes reversing his position. New York Times

Trump envoy Steve Witkoff says he has developed a 'friendship' with Putin. Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's trusted envoy, has said that he's developed a "friendship" with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking at a Saudi-run investment forum in Miami, discussing his trip to Moscow to securethe release of US citizen Marc Fogel, he said, "I spent a lot of time with Putin. Talking and developing a friendship and relationship with him…" Sky News  

U.S.-Canada relationship hits new low.  After Canada won an international hockey tournament, beating the U.S. 3-2, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau posted a message for President Donald Trump on X: “You can’t take our country—and you can’t take our game.” At that game and earlier match, Canadian crowds booed the "Star Spangled Banner." The reason was Trump’s persistent taunts that Trudeau is “governor” of Canada and that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.  Trump has threatened Canada with tariffs.  He even told Trudeau that he could erase the border by ripping up a 1908 treaty between Great Britain and the U.S. that set the border.  Wall Street Journal  Reuters  

Washington’s embrace of Russia could drive wedge between Moscow and Beijing.Foreign-policy experts say  President Donald Trump is trying to pull a “reverse Nixon,” meaning, President Nixon’s rapprochement with Communist China in an effort to deepen a divide between Mao Zedong and the Soviet Union. The choice reset Cold War geopolitics and set the stage for China’s economic development.  Creating a schism this time will be difficult.  Wall Street Journal   

Putin Should Be Imprisoned ‘If Not Executed,’ Sen. Wicker Says. Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Roger Wicker (R- MS), called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” who should be imprisoned or executed. His remarks contrast with President Donald Trump’s push for closer ties with Russia while criticizing Ukraine. Wicker expressed alarm at Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s claim that Ukraine’s pre-war borders were unrealistic, rejecting Trump’s approach of negotiating with Russia without Ukraine. He also dismissed the idea of Russia rejoining the G8 and warned that Putin cannot be trusted in any agreement. Mississippi Free Press

Trump officials launch ICE effort to deport unaccompanied migrant children.  The Trump administration is directing immigration agents to locate and deport unaccompanied migrant children, expanding its mass deportation effort, according to an U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo reviewed by Reuters. The initiative sorts children into three priority groups: "flight risk," "public safety," and "border security." ICE is also expanding sponsor vetting, requiring fingerprints and DNA tests. Critics warn the policy could separate families and increase deportations of minors, many of whom arrived seeking refuge. ICE is using databases to track down targets, while the administration claims the effort aims to combat human trafficking and exploitation. Reuters

Isolated in ‘harsh conditions:' Deportee from U.S. details legal limbo in Panama camp near Darien Gap. A Chinese deportee from the U.S., now held in a Panamanian migrant camp near the Darien Gap, described harsh conditions, restricted freedoms, and no legal access. Panama is detaining nearly 300 deportees under a Trump administration deal, relocating those refusing repatriation to rural camps. Migrants report being closely guarded, with phones confiscated. The UN migration agency is seeking "safe alternatives" for them, while the U.S. State Department thanked Panama and Costa Rica for holding the deportees. Many fear returning home, while others remain in hotels awaiting repatriation. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Friedrich Merz is on track to be Europe’s most powerful leader as America turns its back. Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have won Germany’s national election with 29 percent, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a record 19.6 percent. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered their worst result, finishing third with 16 percent. The election, held early after Scholz’s coalition collapsed, now forces Merz into complex coalition talks. His leadership comes amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s shift away from Europe, raising stakes for Germany’s global role. AfD’s rise, despite being shunned by mainstream parties, signals growing far-right influence. Voters elected a fragmented parliament, with at least five parties likely to make it into the house and two others just below the 5% threshold needed to secure representation. U.S. President Donald Trump hailed Sunday as a "great day for Germany.” In a post on Truth Social, he wrote: "Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration.” Politico EU Politico EU Wall Street Journal Deutsche Welle CNN BBC Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

German Vote Boosts Europe’s Centrists, as Merz Seeks ‘Independence from U.S.’ Friedrich Merz’s victory in Germany’s election offers centrists a temporary reprieve from rising populism but signals a shift toward European independence from the U.S. Merz, likely the next chancellor, emphasized strengthening Europe, stating, “The Americans, at least this administration, are largely indifferent to Europe’s fate.” Merz also questioned NATO’s viability “in its current form” and said Europe may have to pursue its own security arrangements. His Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democrats secured a narrow parliamentary majority, avoiding a broader coalition. German stocks rose in response. French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the results, stressing European unity. Merz faces challenges, including recession, asylum policy, and U.S. tensions under President Donald Trump. He proposes tax cuts, power station construction, and deregulation, while his coalition partner favors infrastructure investment. Fiscal constraints complicate major reforms. Merz has opposed Trump’s tariff threats but may seek compromise. Trump congratulated him, calling it a “great day for Germany and the U.S.” Analysts warn that failure to govern effectively could fuel support for the far-right AfD by 2029.  Reuters

Meet the Man Who’s Almost Sure to Lead Germany. ​​Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is a conservative politician and businessman who is likely to be the next chancellor. Once a rising star, he led the CDU’s parliamentary group until Angela Merkel ousted him in 2002. He left politics for a lucrative legal and corporate career before returning in 2021, winning the CDU leadership in 2022 after two failed attempts. Merz has shifted the party rightward to counter the far-right AfD but sparked a backlash by proposing legislation that relied on AfD support. A staunch transatlanticist, he promised closer U.S. ties yet criticized President Donald Trump’s remarks on Ukraine. He pledged stronger European leadership, increased military spending, and economic revival. Known for his blunt style, he contrasts with the cautious Olaf Scholz, whom he seeks to replace. New York Times

Macron, Starmer to meet Trump as Europeans flesh out ideas for Ukraine guarantees. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer aim to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump this week not to rush into a ceasefire deal with President Vladimir Putin that could weaken Ukraine. In separate meetings with Trump, they will push for European involvement in negotiations and discuss military guarantees for Ukraine. Macron hopes to leverage his prior rapport with Trump, warning that a weak deal would embolden adversaries like China and Iran. Britain and France are exploring post-war security arrangements, including air, sea, and cyber support, with potential peacekeeping roles. While avoiding frontline troop deployments, they seek U.S. backing for deterrence. Macron’s meeting with Trump is expected on Monday, while Starmer’s is scheduled for Thursday. Reuters

Starmer Faces Defining Moment in Campaign to Sway Trump. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Washington next week for talks with President Donald Trump to secure U.S. backing for Ukrainian security guarantees. He seeks to slow negotiations with Russia and reinforce Europe’s commitment to defense spending. Starmer has built rapport with Trump but faces challenges balancing diplomacy with domestic politics. He will position Britain as a military leader willing to spend more on defense. European allies support his push for a 30,000-troop reassurance force. His success in Washington could define his tenure and shape the UK’s global role amid shifting U.S. policies on Ukraine. Bloomberg

President Duda Says Trump Won’t Pull Troops from Poland. Polish President Andrzej Duda said President Donald Trump assured him the US military presence in Poland will not decrease. After their 10-minute meeting Saturday in Washington, D.C., on the sidelines of the Conservative Political Action Conference, Duda said: “We should rather expect ties to tighten as we’re a credible NATO ally. Poland’s security is a fundamental issue in which the US is invested.” He said Trump praised Poland’s defense spending and military purchases from the US. On Ukraine, Duda urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to cooperate with Trump as the U.S. leader pushes for negotiations to end Russia’s war. He noted that Trump’s focus on securing mineral resources could lead to a greater US presence in Ukraine. Bloomberg

Europe targets homegrown nuclear deterrent as Trump sides with Putin. Germany’s Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to become chancellor, has called for Europe to explore nuclear security arrangements with Britain and France, citing the United States’ unreliability under President Donald Trump. His remarks mark a shift in Germany’s position and reflect growing European concerns over NATO’s future. The U.K. and France have historically resisted such arrangements, but Merz’s comments have sparked discussions. British and French officials acknowledge the seriousness of the situation, while some remain skeptical about public support for expanded nuclear commitments. With NATO’s role uncertain, European leaders are preparing for a potential new security structure without U.S. guarantees. Politico EU

EU defense commissioner calls for ‘big bang’ in arms production. European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius rejected President Donald Trump’s claims that Europe has not done enough for Ukraine, highlighting that the EU’s total aid—military, financial, and humanitarian—exceeds U.S. contributions. While Europe’s defense industry has struggled to meet wartime demands, artillery shell production has increased. Kubilius stressed the need for rapid growth in defense spending to counter Russia’s growing capabilities. He warned that Russia could test Europe militarily before 2030. Kyiv Independent

Rubio says he discussed the need for NATO allies to raise spending with Poland. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in Washington on Friday to discuss NATO defense spending. Rubio emphasized the need for NATO allies to increase military investment. When asked about U.S. strategy on Ukraine, Sikorski said he sensed Washington was committed to "lasting peace.” Reuters

UK and Norway discuss Arctic defense pact over Russian threat. The U.K. and Norway have begun talks on a defense pact to counter Russian threats in the Arctic. The agreement aims to strengthen military cooperation and protect undersea infrastructure amid rising tensions between Russia and NATO. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey emphasized Britain’s commitment to European security. As the Trump administration signals a reduced U.S. role, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to meet Trump to propose a European peacekeeping force for Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Canada opposes Russia's return to G7, ambassador says. Canadian Ambassador to Ukraine Natalka Cmoc reaffirmed on Friday that Canada, as G7 chair, opposes Russia’s return to the group. Speaking at the Kyiv Security Forum, she urged stronger support for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia. Her remarks follow Donald Trump’s February 13 statement that he would "love" Russia’s readmission in the G7. Kyiv Independent

Italy’s Meloni is torn between supporting Ukraine and pleasing Trump. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni skipped a G7 call on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, citing scheduling conflicts, but analysts suggest she is avoiding antagonizing President Donald Trump. While Meloni strongly supports Ukraine, her close ties with Trump and Elon Musk complicate her position. European leaders are alarmed by Trump’s hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his outreach to Vladimir Putin. Meloni may gradually reduce verbal support for Kyiv but could back European initiatives with Trump’s approval, prioritizing Italy’s relationship with the U.S. over broader European interests in Ukraine. Financial Times

Once a mighty tool of Russia, Gazprom stumbles toward a more modest future. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom, once a key geopolitical and financial tool, is now struggling after losing its dominant European market. The company, which previously generated massive revenues and wielded influence over former Soviet states, suffered a $7 billion loss in 2023—the first in 25 years—after its share of the European gas market dropped from over 40% to 8%. The Kremlin’s use of Gazprom to pressure Europe backfired, prompting the EU to seek alternative energy sources. While Russia attempts to pivot to China, long-term gas demand remains uncertain, and Beijing has been reluctant to commit to new pipelines. Gazprom has been unable to fully adapt to the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market due to its reliance on pipelines. The Russian government has imposed heavy wartime taxes, limiting the company’s recovery efforts. Once a pillar of Russia’s economy and foreign policy, Gazprom is now reduced mainly to a domestic utility provider with limited global influence. Washington Post

Emboldened Kremlin Steps Up Efforts to Seize Businesses in Russia. Russia has intensified efforts to nationalize private businesses, seizing assets under claims of national security. Recent targets include Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport, the country’s largest private warehouse owner, and a major grain exporter. Courts have cited foreign ownership and alleged economic sabotage as justifications. Analysts warn this undermines Russia’s rule of law and concentrates wealth in Kremlin-friendly hands. Meanwhile, Russian officials have sought to reassure U.S. investors amid talks with the Trump administration despite increasing expropriations and erosion of property rights in Russia’s economy. New York Times

Syrian refugee arrested after Berlin stabbing as Germany prepares to vote. A 19-year-old Syrian refugee was arrested for stabbing a Spanish tourist at Berlin's Holocaust memorial on Friday, two days before Germany’s national election on Sunday. Prosecutors said he had planned to kill Jews for weeks, citing the Middle Eastern conflict. The 30-year-old victim underwent emergency surgery and is in an induced coma. The attack has heightened migration debates, benefiting the far-right AfD, which is polling in second place. Other recent attacks by migrants have fueled political tensions. The suspect, previously unknown to authorities, will appear before a judge on Saturday for an arrest warrant. Reuters Reuters

French authorities detained 4 people after a deadly stabbing linked to Islamic extremism.  Four people were detained after a deadly stabbing in Mulhouse, eastern France, which authorities linked to Islamic extremism. The attacker, a 37-year-old Algerian man, killed a Portuguese citizen and injured seven police officers. Identified as Brahim A., he was previously convicted of glorifying terrorism and placed under house arrest while France attempted to deport him. French officials criticized Algeria for refusing his return. During the attack, he shouted “Allahu akbar” and was armed with a knife and screwdriver. President Emmanuel Macron condemned the attack as Islamist terrorism, and the government will discuss immigration policies in response on Wednesday. Associated Press BBC Australian Broadcasting Corporation France 24 

Slovaks keep up protests against Fico and mark the anniversary of journalist's murder. Thousands protested in Bratislava and across Slovakia on Friday, demanding Prime Minister Robert Fico resign. The rallies, recurring since January, intensified after his December meeting with Vladimir Putin, signaling a shift toward Russia. Protesters also marked the anniversary of journalist Jan Kuciak’s 2018 murder, which previously forced Fico’s resignation then. While 12,000 attended in the capital—down from 40,000 weeks prior—demonstrations occurred in over 40 cities. Fico, who ended Slovakia’s military aid to Ukraine, faces criticism on several issues. Visiting the U.S., he praised President Donald Trump’s adviser Elon Musk for aiming to defund U.S. aid agencies. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

ANALYSIS–In Assad’s Fall, an Echo of the Arab Spring. The fall of Bashar al-Assad underscores that authoritarian rule cannot guarantee stability. His brutal regime, despite Russian and Iranian backing, collapsed when its military refused to defend it. The Arab Spring’s lesson—that repression cannot indefinitely suppress public discontent—remains relevant. Syria’s new rulers, led by Ahmed al-Shara of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, must decide whether to pursue inclusive governance or repeat past authoritarian mistakes. The region remains volatile, with entrenched corruption and economic struggles fueling unrest. If Syria embraces pluralism, it could inspire broader reforms, but a return to autocracy risks perpetuating cycles of repression and instability. Foreign Affairs

Netanyahu says Israel will not permit HTS forces in Syria’s south. Israel on Sunday declared that it would not allow the presence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former Al Qaeda affiliate that seized control of Damascus in December, in southern Syria. Speaking at a military graduation ceremony, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that HTS, or any other forces linked to Syria’s new rulers, would not be tolerated, and that the area must be demilitarized. After the group stormed Syria’s capital and ended the rule of Bashar al-Assad, Israel moved troops into a U.N.-monitored demilitarized zone within Syria. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces will remain in place as a defensive measure and will prevent HTS or the new Syrian army from advancing south of Damascus. He also stressed Israel’s commitment to protecting the Druze minority in southern Syria. Damascus has demanded that Israel withdraw its forces, while the United Nations has called Israel’s military presence a violation of international agreements and urged a withdrawal. Reuters Associated Press 

Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, citing ceasefire violations. The Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on rocket launchers in southern Lebanon on Sunday, targeting Hezbollah operatives that Israel said were violating the ceasefire agreement, which prohibits the group from storing or moving weapons in the region. The IDF stated that Hezbollah’s activities pose a threat to Israel and its civilians. Later, Israeli forces struck military sites with rocket launchers in Baalbek, approximately 100 km into Lebanon. The strikes occurred just before the funeral of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s Shi’ite suburb of Dahiyeh. In a show of force, IDF jets flew over Beirut, signaling potential consequences for Hezbollah leaders who engage in hostilities against Israel. By Sunday evening, the IDF had conducted additional airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons stockpiles in southern Lebanon. Jerusalem Post 

Israeli tanks penetrate West Bank for the first time in decades, escalating tensions. Israeli tanks entered the occupied West Bank on Sunday, marking the first such deployment in decades. The move comes as Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Israeli forces will remain in parts of the West Bank for at least a year, preventing the return of tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority condemned the incursion as a "dangerous escalation" and urged international intervention. The military operation, which began on January 21, is aimed at clearing out Palestinian militancy and has expanded beyond Jenin into other urban refugee camps. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israeli troops will stay "as long as needed" in the territory, home to 3 million Palestinians who live under military rule. The U.N. has confirmed that about 40,000 Palestinians have fled their homes due to Israeli military actions. Since the war in Gaza began on October 7, 2023, over 800 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, including militants, protesters, and bystanders. The Palestinian foreign ministry accused Israel of illegally occupying territory and committing aggression against civilians. The raids come at a critical time, as a tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remains in place. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit the region to negotiate an extension of the truce. Meanwhile, Hamas has refused further discussions until Israel releases 620 Palestinian prisoners, whose scheduled release was delayed. Netanyahu, under pressure from far-right allies, has escalated military operations in the West Bank, despite increasing domestic and international criticism. During a military graduation speech, audience members heckled him, questioning his leadership and failure to recover Israeli hostages. Associated Press Al Jazeera CNN  

Hamas rejects Israel's claims on hostages' handover ceremony, condemns move to delay prisoner release. Hamas has condemned Israel’s decision to delay the release of 620 Palestinian prisoners, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to disrupt the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Hamas on Sunday rejected Israel’s claim that hostage handover ceremonies were “humiliating,” calling it a pretext to avoid its commitments under the deal. Israel stated it would not release Palestinian prisoners until Hamas assured the safe handover of more hostages without public ceremonies. Hamas, however, defended its process, saying hostages were treated humanely, while conversely, Palestinian prisoners faced mistreatment upon release, including blindfolding and restrictions on celebrations. The dispute highlights the fragility of the ceasefire, which saw six hostages freed on Saturday, the last living Israeli captives to be released in the first phase of the truce. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Xi affirms 'no limits' partnership with Putin in call on Ukraine war anniversary. Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his "no limits" partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a call on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The leaders emphasized their alliance’s long-term nature, unaffected by third parties. Xi noted China’s diplomatic efforts on Ukraine while avoiding criticism of Russia. The call came as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a rapid resolution to the war. Xi also confirmed plans to visit Moscow for a World War II commemoration in May. Reuters

See How Xi and Putin Are Ramping Up Joint Military Drills. China and Russia have intensified military cooperation, holding joint exercises from Alaska to Taiwan, signaling a challenge to U.S. allies. Their drills include naval patrols near Japan, warplane sorties over the Pacific, and Arctic patrols through the Bering Strait. Moscow and Beijing maintain strategic coordination without full integration, complicating U.S. defense planning. This comes as Donald Trump pressures allies on defense spending while shifting U.S. policy on Ukraine. Analysts see growing military ties as a way for Russia and China to counter Western influence, raising concerns about potential multi-front conflicts involving the U.S. in Asia and beyond. Wall Street Journal

Australia 'hyping' up Chinese naval drills, says Beijing. China’s Defense Ministry on Sunday dismissed Canberra’s complaints about recent live-fire naval drills in waters between Australia and New Zealand, calling them “hyped up” and “inconsistent with the facts.” Over the weekend, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles criticized Beijing for giving inadequate notice for the exercise, calling the situation “disconcerting” for commercial aviation. Several airlines were forced to divert flights. However, Chinese spokesperson Wu Qian insisted that China had issued multiple safety warnings and acted in accordance with international law. China accused Australia of making “unreasonable accusations” and deliberately exaggerating the situation. Reuters Associated Press Reuters 

New Zealand reports Chinese live-fire drills in international waters for the 2nd time. China's navy carried out live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea near New Zealand on Saturday, following a similar drill in international waters between Australia and New Zealand the previous day. The exercises forced airlines, including Qantas, Emirates, and Air New Zealand, to reroute flights due to short-notice warnings from the Chinese navy. New Zealand's Navy frigate Te Kaha observed live rounds fired from a Chinese vessel and confirmed that Beijing had communicated its intent via radio. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that while China acted within international law, its fleet's purpose and destination remained unclear. The drills occurred after a Chinese naval task group traveled down Australia's east coast, closely monitored by Australian and New Zealand forces. Reuters CNN

French aircraft carrier conducts combat drills with the Philippines, visits former U.S. Naval base. The French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was in the Philippines on Sunday, along with its accompanying warships, following anti-submarine warfare drills and aerial combat training in the South China Sea with Filipino forces. The carrier docked at Subic Bay, a former U.S. Naval base, after two months in the Indo-Pacific. French officials stressed their commitment to regional stability, with Ambassador Marie Fontanel underscoring cooperation with allies that share common values. This visit comes amid France’s growing military ties with the Philippines and Southeast Asian nations as China increases assertiveness in disputed waters. China strongly opposes foreign military presence in the region, especially by the U.S. and its allies. Paris and Manila have been strengthening military cooperation, signing an accord in 2023 and discussing a defense pact that would allow military exercises in each other’s territories. Similar agreements exist between the Philippines and the U.S., Australia, and Japan, with talks recently concluded with New Zealand. Associated Press Economic Times 

North Korea says there have been more 'military provocations' from U.S. under Trump. North Korea's state media reported on Saturday that the defense ministry has accused the United States and its allies of escalating military provocations under the Trump administration. The ministry cited joint military drills and the U.S. military presence in South Korea as threats to North Korea's security. A ministry official, speaking via KCNA, warned that Pyongyang would respond to these threats from the U.S. and its "vassal forces" with its own strategic military actions and vowed to continue its military activities. This statement came after South Korea confirmed that a U.S. B-1B strategic bomber participated in a joint air drill. North Korea has consistently denounced such exercises as rehearsals for war, while Seoul maintains they are defensive measures. Reuters

Russia inks memorandum with Myanmar to construct port, oil refinery. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development announced on Sunday that Moscow and Myanmar have signed a memorandum on investment cooperation for the Dawei special economic zone, which includes plans for a port, a coal-fired power plant, and an oil refinery. While Myanmar has expressed strong interest in building an oil refinery, Russian officials say they are still assessing its economic feasibility. The Dawei special economic zone, which covers 196 square kilometers along the Andaman Sea, is set to include industrial, transport, IT, and export zones. Discussions also include Russia’s involvement in a gas pipeline to Yangon and plans for a nuclear research reactor. Since Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, Russia has become its closest ally, deepening energy cooperation. Reuters  

With no passengers, planes, or benefits, Pakistan’s new China-funded airport is a puzzle. Pakistan’s New Gwadar International Airport, funded entirely by China for $240 million and largely unused, with no passengers or planes, presents many questions. The airport, completed in October of last year, is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a multibillion-dollar project linking Xinjiang province to the Arabian Sea. However, locals in Gwadar, a struggling city in volatile Balochistan, see little benefit from the project, as the region lacks basic services like clean water and electricity. CPEC has also intensified militant violence in Balochistan, as separatists accuse the Pakistani government of exploiting local resources while providing no economic benefits to the Baloch people. The province remains heavily militarized, with soldiers, checkpoints, road closures, surveillance, and security restrictions making daily life difficult for residents. Militant action has prompted serious security concerns, which delayed the airport’s official inauguration; it was ultimately conducted virtually by Pakistani and Chinese officials. And to further fuel tensions and resentment, no locals were hired at the airport. Protests erupted in December over poor living conditions in the indigent region, but despite government promises, no improvements have been made. With distrust growing between the Baloch people and the Pakistani government, CPEC’s benefits remain concentrated among Chinese and Pakistani elites, while locals continue to struggle with poverty, displacement, and insecurity. As one expert explained, the “airport is not for Pakistan,” or for the city of Gwadar. “It is for China, so they can have secure access for their citizens.” Associated Press  

AFRICA

Sudan's army makes key advances, breaks siege. The Sudanese military on Sunday managed to break a siege on the strategic commercial and transportation hub of Obeid, regaining control of a key supply route in its nearly two-year war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The military also expelled RSF fighters from their last stronghold in White Nile province, marking another hitch for the group, and taking back control of the town of el-Gitaina. The conflict, which began in April 2023, has devastated Sudan, with atrocities such as mass rape and ethnic killings reported, particularly in Darfur. The military's advances in Obeid are seen as a major step toward lifting the RSF siege on el-Fasher and improving humanitarian aid delivery to Kordofan. The RSF has suffered multiple defeats in recent months, losing control of Wad Medani, Sudan’s largest oil refinery, and other strategic areas. Meanwhile, a cholera outbreak in White Nile province has killed 68 people and infected over 1,860, with contaminated drinking water cited as the main cause. Efforts to combat the outbreak include restoring damaged water facilities and vaccination campaigns. Despite international mediation attempts, the conflict shows no signs of resolution. Associated Press Reuters

Sudan’s RSF, allies sign political charter in Kenya. The notorious Sudanese paramilitary, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and its allies on Sunday signed a charter to establish a parallel government, despite recent military setbacks. The signing took place behind closed doors in Nairobi, Kenya, following another controversial meeting last week condemned by Sudan’s Foreign Ministry. Egypt, which backs the Sudanese Armed Forces, released a statement rejecting “any calls for the formation of parallel frameworks to the current framework in Sudan.” The RSF claims the new government will promote "peace and unity," but human rights groups and the international community have accused the group of committing atrocities and genocide since the conflict with Sudan’s army began in April 2023. The civil war has killed over 24,000 people and displaced more than 14 million, with 3.2 million fleeing to neighboring countries. The U.N. estimates that over 4,200 civilians were killed in 2024 alone, though the actual toll is likely higher. Meanwhile, Sudan’s military is coming out on top, recapturing Wad Medani, the country’s largest oil refinery, and other strategic areas. The RSF appears to have lost control of Greater Khartoum, including Omdurman and Khartoum Bahri. Reuters Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera France 24 

President of war-torn Congo eyeing unity government in response to crisis. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi on Saturday announced plans to form a unity government amid escalating violence in the country’s volatile east and growing pressure over his handling of the crisis. Speaking at a meeting of the Sacred Union of the Nation ruling coalition, he acknowledged recent setbacks against the M23 rebels, stating, “I lost the battle, not the war.” Tshisekedi said he would “reach out to everyone including the opposition” in order to establish a “government of national unity.” He did not, however, provide details on when or how the unity government would be implemented. Opposition figure Herve Diakiese blasted the move, saying that Tshisekedi “is more concerned with saving his power, whereas we are more concerned with saving Congo.” This, Diakiese asserted, “can be done with or without" the president. The M23 rebels, backed by an estimated 4,000 Rwandan troops according to U.N. experts, have launched a rapid offensive, capturing key cities like Goma and Bukavu and killing thousands. The group claims to be protecting Tutsis and Congolese of Rwandan origin from discrimination, but analysts view this as a pretext for Rwandan interference. The situation remains tense, with Congo’s communications minister accusing Rwanda and M23 of killing over a dozen people in Goma. Associated Press Reuters

Congo’s Tshisekedi seeking minerals deal with the U.S. as conflict escalates. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is offering Western countries a greater stake in his country’s vast mineral wealth, aiming to counter China’s dominance and secure support against Rwanda. He compared the current conflict raging in Congo’s east to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hoping that Western pressure on Rwanda would bring stability. Tshisekedi claims that the Trump administration has already expressed an interest in an agreement to secure the flow of key minerals directly from the Central African nation. M23, a group of thousands of fighters allegedly funded and directed by Kigali, has captured key cities like Goma and Bukavu, killing thousands and signaling the intention to govern occupied territory. The rebels claim to protect Tutsis and Congolese of Rwandan origin, but Tshisekedi dismisses this as a pretext for Rwanda’s plundering of Congo’s resources, accusing President Paul Kagame of being a “warlord.” Despite U.S. and U.N. condemnations, concrete actions against Rwanda have been limited, a reality denounced by Tshisekedi. However, recent U.S. sanctions targeted an M23 spokesman and a high-ranking Rwandan official. Tshisekedi remains firm in his refusal to negotiate with M23, insisting he will reclaim Goma through “dialogue or military reconquest.” New York Times

Congo’s PM says 7,000 killed since January in violence. Since January, approximately 7,000 people have died in clashes in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka. Speaking Monday at the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, she highlighted the humanitarian crisis, stating that 450,000 people are without shelter after 90 displacement camps were destroyed. Tuluka urged the international community to take action and impose sanctions on Rwanda to deter further violence, executions, and displacement. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also condemned the situation, emphasizing that human rights are under attack globally and describing the atrocities in Congo as horrifying. Reuters 

Hundreds of Congolese police officers join M23 rebels in occupied Bukavu. Hundreds of Congolese police officers in Bukavu, the second-largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), have defected to M23, receiving new uniforms and preparing for retraining under the rebels’ authority, signaling the rebels’ intent to govern the occupied area. According to a spokesperson for the AFC rebel coalition, about 1,800 police officers have yielded and were set for retraining, with a further 500 more expected to do the same.  Meanwhile, Congolese forces are struggling on multiple fronts, with the town of Minembwe and its airfield falling to an allied Tutsi militia on Friday. Despite a recent meeting of East African defense chiefs stressing the need for dialogue, the Congolese government refuses to negotiate with M23. Local residents remain skeptical of the rebels' governance, saying the occupation has disrupted daily life and was imposed by force. Reuters       

U.N. Security Council demands Rwanda cease backing M23 rebels in eastern Congo. The UN Security Council on Friday demanded that the M23 rebel group immediately stop hostilities, withdraw from occupied areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and dismantle parallel administrations. It also called on Rwanda to stop supporting M23 and withdraw its troops from Congolese territory without conditions. The Council urged both Rwanda and the DRC to engage in diplomatic talks for a peaceful resolution. The resolution, submitted by France, also condemned the DRC military's support for armed groups like the FDLR and called for their neutralization. The Council strongly condemned attacks on civilians, human rights abuses, and restrictions on aid access, demanding the restoration of essential services. It reaffirmed support for the UN peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) and warned that attacks on peacekeepers could constitute war crimes. UN News France 24 

Burundi’s humanitarian crisis exacerbated by flood of 40,000 fleeing Congolese. The U.N. on Friday warned that Burundi is suffering a mounting humanitarian crisis, as over 40,000 people have fled there within two weeks to escape escalating conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). At one point, more than 9,000 refugees crossed in a single day, an unprecedented influx for Burundi. Many refugees arriving in Burundi are injured or suffering from health conditions like measles, and at least two children have died from exhaustion after their journey. The U.N. reports that 36,000 people have crossed via makeshift boats on the Rusizi River, while 6,000 have entered through Bujumbura’s official border since mid-February. The UNHCR is working to relocate displaced individuals, who are currently sheltered in an open-air stadium, schools, and churches, to an area with better humanitarian support. The agency has launched an emergency appeal for $40.4 million to aid up to 258,000 potential refugees across Burundi, Tanzania, and Zambia. Reuters 

Mali’s army to probe execution of civilians, blamed on soldiers and Wagner mercenaries. Mali’s army on Friday revealed the launch of an investigation into allegations by Tuareg separatist rebels that soldiers and Russian Wagner mercenaries killed at least 24 civilians. The incident allegedly occurred on February 17, when two civilian transport vehicles traveling from Gao to Algeria were intercepted, and passengers were executed. While the Malian military has not directly addressed the accusations, it dismissed claims against its forces as propaganda. Analysts, however, believe the investigation is unlikely to hold the army or Wagner accountable, instead aiming to refute the allegations. Mali has faced a prolonged crisis, with its military seizing power in a 2020 coup amid growing jihadist attacks. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Apple Earmarks $500 Billion for U.S. Expansion. Apple announced plans to invest over $500 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years, creating around 20,000 jobs. The company will build a new factory in Houston to produce servers for its Apple Intelligence generative AI system. Additionally, Apple will double its U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund, originally launched in 2017. CEO Tim Cook emphasized the company’s commitment to American innovation, reinforcing its long-term investment in domestic manufacturing and technology development. Wall Street Journal

Why does AI spending keep rise? Investment in artificial intelligence is surging, driven by big tech, venture capital, and governments, as AI technology evolves from conventional large language models to reasoning models and AI agents. Unlike traditional AI models, reasoning models require significantly more computing power and electricity due to their extended processing, including self-dialogue and deep research capabilities. OpenAI’s introduction of its reasoning model, o1, has intensified competition, with DeepSeek’s R1 and Elon Musk’s xAI launching their own alternatives. DeepSeek’s model seemed to reduce AI training costs, but it ultimately accelerated the shift toward resource-heavy reasoning models, increasing demand for data centers and advanced microchips. Reasoning models, which can consume over 100 times the resources of standard AI models, are expected to become the industry standard. Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Meta plan to invest at least $215 billion in AI data centers in 2025, a 45% increase from the previous year. Despite efficiency improvements in AI hardware, the demand for AI processing—especially for inference rather than training—is skyrocketing. As businesses increasingly rely on AI-powered applications, their need for computing power continues to grow. Investors and AI companies believe that demand for AI models could expand exponentially, potentially making the AI market 1,000 times larger than it is today. Wall Street Journal

OpenAI bans malicious accounts of users in China and North Korea. OpenAI has removed accounts from China and North Korea that were using its AI for malicious purposes, such as surveillance and opinion-influencing, according to a company report. The AI firm detected these activities using its own technology but did not disclose the number of accounts banned or the time frame of the actions. Specific cases included Chinese users generating anti-U.S. news articles in Spanish that were published in Latin American media, North Korean actors creating fake resumes to apply for jobs at Western companies, and a financial fraud network in Cambodia using AI to generate and translate social media comments. The U.S. government has raised concerns about China's alleged AI-driven efforts to suppress dissent, spread misinformation, and threaten national security. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s ChatGPT remains the most popular AI chatbot, with over 400 million weekly active users, and the company is in talks to raise up to $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation. Reuters

European Asset Managers Churn Out Defense Funds Once Deemed Uninvestable. European investors are increasingly backing defense stocks as governments boost military spending, reversing past exclusions due to ethical concerns. Defense-themed funds doubled last year, and ESG investors are now incorporating defense assets for higher returns. With an estimated $3.1 trillion needed over the next decade for European defense, the EU is considering incentives for investment. Major arms firms like Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall are already included in ESG funds. Despite concerns over controversial weapons, shifting attitudes and regulatory support could further drive investment into the defense sector. Bloomberg

Australia fines Telegram for response to inquiries on terror, child abuse. Australia's eSafety Commission has fined Telegram approximately A$1 million ($640,000) for its delayed response to inquiries about its efforts to prevent the spread of child abuse and extremist content. The regulator had requested information from several platforms, including Telegram, YouTube, and Reddit, in March 2024, with a response deadline in May. However, Telegram did not submit its response until October, reportedly obstructing eSafety’s enforcement efforts. Telegram claims it fully answered all questions and intends to appeal the "unfair and disproportionate" penalty, arguing the issue is solely about response timing. The case highlights broader concerns over online safety, with Australia’s spy agency reporting that one in five priority counter-terrorism cases involves youths. Telegram has faced increasing scrutiny globally, particularly after its founder, Pavel Durov, was placed under investigation in France for alleged misuse of the platform. Australian authorities stress that Big Tech must be more transparent and accountable in combating online harms. If Telegram refuses to pay the fine, eSafety may seek a civil penalty in court. Reuters The Guardian Barron's 

Russian group targets German election with disinformation about fraud, cautions security services. Germany's security services warned last week that fabricated videos alleging ballot manipulation in the nation’s federal elections are part of a Russian influence operation. These videos, spread on social media, falsely depict ballots for the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party being destroyed or omitted from voting papers. Authorities link the campaign to Storm-1516, a Moscow-linked group previously identified by Microsoft as interfering in a U.S. presidential election. The Saxony State Criminal Police are investigating the videos, and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has been warning about Russian election interference for months. This interference follows a broader pattern of Russian meddling in European elections, including Romania’s presidential election last December, which was annulled due to intelligence reports of foreign influence. Similar tactics were used in the 2016 U.S. election, though President Donald Trump has denied any interference. German officials report that beyond fake videos, Russia is also using inauthentic social media accounts to amplify support for AfD. The warning came just before Germany’s elections Sunday, where the CDU/CSU coalition, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the dominant party. The Record Reuters Politico EU 

Bybit CEO confirms theft of $1.4 billion of cryptocurrency by hackers. Bybit, a Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a massive hack on Friday, losing over $1.4 billion worth of Ethereum in what experts call the largest-ever theft targeting a crypto platform. The breach occurred during a transfer from a secure offline cold wallet to an online warm wallet, where attackers manipulated the signing interface to alter the smart contract logic. Crypto investigator ZachXBT first flagged suspicious outflows from the company totaling $1.46 billion, with the stolen 401,000 ETH being split across 48 addresses. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou confirmed the theft in a livestream last week, assuring customers that the exchange remains solvent, and withdrawals are still being processed. Zhou suggested that the security compromise might have originated from Safe, Bybit’s wallet provider, though Safe denies evidence of a breach. Despite the attack, Bybit, which previously held over $16 billion in reserves, has secured bridge loans covering 80% of the stolen funds. The incident joins a history of major crypto hacks, including those targeting Ronin Network and Poly Network, each exceeding $600 million. Crypto theft remains a significant issue, with North Korea’s Lazarus Group among the most notorious culprits, contributing to a total of $2.2 billion stolen in crypto hacks last year. The Record CNBC   

SpaceX launches 22 Starlink internet satellites from California. SpaceX launched 22 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Station on Feb. 22 at 8:38 p.m. EST. The Falcon 9 rocket’s first stage successfully landed on the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You in the Pacific Ocean. This marks the 11th flight for the booster and SpaceX’s 23rd Falcon 9 mission of 2025. Starlink’s growing megaconstellation now exceeds 7,000 operational satellites, continuing its expansion of global internet coverage. Space.com 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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