Open Source Report for Monday, April 28, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, April 28, 2025

Trump urges Russia to stop attacks, says Zelensky might cede Crimea

The Russian Military Moves That Have Europe on Edge

Iran says 'extremely cautious' on success of nuclear talks with US

Indian and Pakistani Soldiers Briefly Exchange Fire Along Kashmir Border

China seizes disputed reef in the South China Sea

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Assessing the Dangers of a ‘New Nuclear Age.’The Cipher Brief interviewed three experts on the dangers of a "new nuclear age." Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The New Nuclear Age, warned that nuclear weapons have returned to the center of global politics, driven by China's rapid arsenal expansion and Russia’s nuclear threats. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. Special Envoy to the Six-Party Talks with North Korea, noted rising nuclear ambitions in Poland, South Korea, and Japan amid doubts about U.S. security assurances. John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, emphasized the reversal of disarmament trends and warned that building more nuclear weapons may not increase security. The experts agreed the Ukraine war, U.S. political uncertainty, and China’s buildup have accelerated global proliferation risks. They stressed the urgent need to revive arms control efforts and reinforce nonproliferation frameworks to avoid a dangerous global arms race. The Cipher Brief

OPINION–How Tech Can Revive America’s Oldest Asian Alliance. Jennifer Ewbank, former Deputy Director of Digital Innovation at the Central Intelligence Agency, argues that the U.S. must urgently deepen its digital partnership with Thailand to counter China’s growing influence. Ewbank emphasizes that Thailand’s “Thailand 4.0” initiative presents a key opportunity for American investment in cloud, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and e-commerce infrastructure. She warns that China's low-cost digital offerings, while attractive, trap nations in long-term dependency. Ewbank advocates for the U.S. to focus on delivering superior innovation, financing models, and long-term value rather than competing on price. She emphasizes the importance of cultural literacy, strategic public-private partnerships, and empowering all sectors of Thai society, including rural communities, with technology. Strengthening digital ties with Thailand, Ewbank concludes, would not only rebuild the U.S.-Thailand alliance but also reinforce democratic leadership across Southeast Asia in the face of authoritarian expansion. The Cipher Brief 

THE AMERICAS

Trump's next 100 days to feature trade deals, peace talks, 'torpedoes,' officials say. As President Donald Trump marks his first 100 days, the White House is highlighting security and foreign policy challenges ahead. Officials say Trump will push aggressively for trade agreements within 90 days and continue high-stakes peace talks, particularly aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine — though Trump admitted progress remains difficult with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He plans an extended trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to deepen diplomatic and security ties. New executive actions are expected, including a potential travel ban targeting multiple countries. Officials also warned of more undisclosed "torpedoes" in the security and geopolitical arenas. Reuters

Pentagon Prepared Briefing for Musk on Top Secret U.S. Weapons for China War. Pentagon officials had prepared a briefing for Elon Musk on 29 highly classified China-related weapons programs, but it was halted after Acting General Counsel Charles Young raised ethics concerns. Confusion over who authorized the disclosure highlighted turmoil under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Although Musk never received the top-secret information, the episode contradicted Trump and Hegseth’s public denials. Critics warned Musk’s commercial ties to China made sharing such secrets inappropriate. Separately, Hegseth faces scrutiny over handling classified information, including sharing Yemen attack plans via private Signal chats. The Pentagon inspector general has opened an investigation into his conduct. Wall Street Journal

Hegseth Dismisses Members of Pentagon Advisory Boards. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed members of key Pentagon advisory boards, including the Defense Policy Board and the Defense Science Board, citing a need for “fresh thinking to drive bold changes.” The panels, long sources of independent expertise, will be restaffed, though some members might be retained after review. Elon Musk praised the move as a needed reset. Hegseth’s shake-up follows earlier firings of senior officers and civilian aides, further consolidating his influence over defense policy and strategic planning. Wall Street Journal

The Army is preparing a generative AI workspace to improve daily operations. The U.S. Army has launched a "generative AI workspace" called the Army Enterprise LLM Workspace to boost daily operations, using large language models (LLMs) for tasks like reclassifying 300,000 personnel descriptions in just a week—saving an estimated 50,000 hours of human labor. However, AI’s heavy cloud computing demands led to soaring costs. To manage this, the Army is consolidating cloud services under a firm-fixed price contract with Oracle via the Department of Defense's Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability (JWCC), which has already cut some program costs by nearly 50%. The reforms aim to enhance security, efficiency, and financial management. Defense One

AP-NORC poll shows Elon Musk’s popularity sagging.  According to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 33% of U.S. adults have a favorable view of Musk, down from 41% in December.  About two-thirds of adults said Musk has too much influence over the federal government, and about half said President Donald Trump has gone too far on reducing the size of the federal workforce, which he delegated to Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.   During the campaign, Musk talked about cutting spending by $2 trillion, then lowered his sight to $1 trillion. His goal has recently dropped drastically, to $150 billion, and even then, DOGE has sometimes overstated its progress. Support for Musk falls along party lines: about 2 in 10 independents and about 1 in 10 Democrats view Musk favorably, compared with about 7 in 10 Republicans. Associated Press 

ANALYSIS–The Conventional Balance of Terror. Facing China’s growing precision missile capabilities, the United States must rethink its conventional deterrence strategy, argue Andrew S. Lim and James D. Fearon. Drawing lessons from Cold War nuclear stability, they propose a "conventional triad"—mobile land-based missile launchers, submarines, and bombers—to survive a Chinese first strike and maintain credible second-strike capabilities. China’s advancements have eroded U.S. dominance, making current U.S. forces, reliant on fixed bases and visible ships, vulnerable. A new conventional triad would mirror Cold War nuclear deterrence by reducing first-strike incentives and stabilizing crisis situations. Though efforts like increased submarine production, bomber development, and autonomous systems are underway, U.S. capabilities must rapidly expand to match China's growing arsenal. Without such restructuring, U.S. forces risk suffering catastrophic losses in a conflict, undermining both deterrence and long-term strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Building survivable, mobile forces is now essential for preserving U.S. military advantage and credibility. Foreign Affairs

Trump Claims He’s Negotiating with China on Trade. China Says Otherwise. President Trump claimed active trade negotiations with China to calm financial markets, but Chinese officials denied any talks were occurring. Trump insisted he had spoken with President Xi Jinping “numerous times,” though he refused to provide evidence. Meanwhile, tariffs he imposed — up to 145% on Chinese imports — have triggered Chinese retaliation and disrupted U.S. businesses. Privately, Trump’s team is alarmed by market sell-offs and economic risks, pushing for a 90-day tariff pause. With his approval ratings slipping, Trump faces pressure to de-escalate without appearing weak, but Beijing believes it can outlast U.S. economic pain. New York Times

Trump says American ships should travel through the Panama and Suez canals for free.  President Donald Trump said Saturday that American military and commercial ships should travel through the Panama Canal and Suez Canal free of charge. "I’ve asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to immediately take care of, and memorialize, this situation," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Reuters Politico EU Bloomberg 

N.Y.P.D. launches probe into reports that 2 women were assaulted by pro-Israeli mob. During intense protests last week in Brooklyn, sparked by a visit by far-right Israeli official Itamar Ben-Gvir, pro-Israel counter protesters allegedly assaulted two women, injuring one and hurling racist and sexist profanities. Clashes erupted outside the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters, with videos showing a crowd of hundreds of men and boys surrounding a 29-year-old woman, chanting slogans like “death to Arabs” and throwing objects at her. Six people were detained, with one facing assault charges. Mayor Eric Adams condemned the violence and urged the victims to aid the investigation. New York Times Reuters 

Suspects Arrested in Theft of Homeland Secretary Noem’s Handbag. Two suspects have been arrested in connection with the theft of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s purse from a Washington, D.C. restaurant. One man was arrested in D.C., and another in Miami Beach. The stolen bag contained Noem’s ID, passport, DHS badge, cash, and personal items, officials said Sunday. Axios Bloomberg 

Trump Is Aiming for Big Concessions on Trade; Carney Warns Canada Voters. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that U.S. President Donald Trump will push for "major concessions" and takes seriously Trump’s claim he wants Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. “America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us,” Carney said while campaigning ahead of Monday’s election. Carney emphasized Canada's urgent need to forge stronger global alliances given its economic dependence on U.S. trade. Bloomberg 

Poll: Canadians despise Trump and distrust US. A new POLITICO/Focaldata poll shows that President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in Canada, with 75% of Canadians disliking him and nearly half viewing the U.S. as hostile. This backlash has hurt Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whose early polling lead has evaporated ahead of Monday’s election. Liberal leader Mark Carney now holds a slight edge, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. Carney is seen as better suited to manage relations with Trump, boosting his favorability. Though Conservatives still appeal on cost-of-living issues, Trump's influence has triggered a surge in Canadian patriotism, benefiting the Liberals. Politico 

11 killed as a vehicle plows into a Filipino street festival in Vancouver. Police rule out terrorism. Kai-ai-Ji Adam Lo, 30, was charged with second-degree murder after allegedly ramming his SUV into a Filipino heritage festival in Vancouver on April 26, killing 11 people and injuring dozens. Authorities ruled out terrorism, citing Lo’s mental health history. Prime Minister Mark Carney canceled campaign events to mourn the victims. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters 

Trump touts arrest of 100 suspected undocumented immigrants at Colorado club. Over 100 suspected undocumented immigrants were arrested during a federal raid on an underground nightclub in Colorado Springs, where authorities also seized guns, methamphetamine, and pink cocaine. DEA officials said the club had ties to gangs like Tren de Aragua, MS-13, and the Hells Angels, and alleged activities included drug trafficking and prostitution. Some active-duty service members from Fort Carson were involved. President Trump praised the raid, linking it to broader immigration enforcement efforts, despite data showing that immigrants commit fewer crimes than native-born citizens. On social media, Trump hailed the "big Raid” on “some of the worst people illegally in our Country — Drug Dealers, Murderers, and other Violent Criminals, of all shapes and sizes.” He added, “judges don't want to send them back to where they came from,” referencing the administration’s ongoing battles with the Supreme Court. Critics have condemned the developments, arguing that such raids spotlight rare cases while ignoring broader immigration realities. Axios 

Trump officials defend recent deportations involving American citizen children. Trump administration officials have defended their immigration crackdown after reports emerged that U.S. citizen children were deported alongside their undocumented mothers to Honduras. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and border czar Tom Homan insisted that the children themselves were not deported, claiming the mothers chose to take them. "If someone is in this country unlawfully, illegally, that person gets deported. If that person is with a 2-year-old child . . . and says, I want to take my child ... with me, well, then what?” stated Rubio. “Those children are U.S. citizens. They can come back into the United States if there's their father or someone here who wants to assume them," he said. Advocacy groups, however, accused authorities of misleading the public, stating that Immigration and Customs Enforcement ignored requests to let the children stay with U.S. caregivers and denied the mothers legal options or communication. The incident has sparked renewed criticism over family separations and the treatment of U.S. citizen children in immigration enforcement. Axios New York Times Bloomberg  NBC News 

Trump to Sign Order Requiring Nationwide List of Sanctuary Cities and States. President Trump plans to sign an executive order on Monday requiring a nationwide list of sanctuary cities and states that don’t fully cooperate with federal immigration enforcement. Jurisdictions identified could face funding cuts and lawsuits. The Justice Department will also be directed to pursue civil rights cases against states offering benefits to undocumented immigrants over U.S. citizens. The move follows legal setbacks against Trump’s earlier efforts to penalize sanctuary cities through executive orders. Wall Street Journal Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Putin declares 3-day May ceasefire to mark World War Two Victory Day.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday announced a three-day “humanitarian” ceasefire from May 8 to the end of May 10 to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two. "During this period, all military actions will cease. Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example," the Kremlin said in a statement. The Kremlin said that if Ukraine violates the truce, Russian forces will give an “adequate and effective response.”  Kyiv Independent Reuters Wall Street Journal

Trump urges Russia to stop attacks, says Zelensky might cede Crimea. On Sunday, speaking to reporters on an airport runway in Morristown, New Jersey, after returning from Rome, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war. "I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal," Trump said. "We have the confines of a deal, I believe, and I want him to sign it and be done with it." Trump voiced disappointment after Russia’s deadly missile strikes on Kyiv, saying, "I was very disappointed that missiles were flying by Russia." When asked if he trusts Putin, Trump said, “we’ll know in about two weeks.” He called his 15-minute private talk with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis’s funeral on Saturday as “a nice meeting, a beautiful meeting.” Trump said Zelensky told him that Ukraine needs more weapons, “but he’s been saying that for three years.” He noticed a welcome change in his Ukrainian counterpart’s attitude. “I see him as calmer. I think he understands the picture. I think he wants to make a deal,” Trump said. He said Zelensky is in “a very tough situation” in fighting off Russia but described his relationship with the Ukrainian leader as “never bad,” despite their disputes. Trump added he believes Zelensky may now be ready to concede Crimea to Russia. Kyiv Independent YouTube South China Morning Post Kyiv Independent Reuters

ANALYSIS–Putin Keeps Pummeling Ukraine; Convinced Trump Is on His Side. President Vladimir Putin is intensifying attacks on Ukraine while maintaining optimism about talks with President Donald Trump, believing he holds the upper hand. Despite Trump's calls for a cease-fire, including a rare public plea for Putin to "STOP," Russia continues heavy strikes, targeting civilians. Putin appears confident that Trump’s concessions — recognizing Crimea as Russian and freezing the current battle lines — favor Moscow, even though they fall short of Putin’s full war aims. Kremlin officials suggest negotiations could continue, but Putin sees little incentive to stop fighting while he believes battlefield pressure weakens Ukraine’s defenses. Analysts say Putin hopes that Trump's presidency could lead to sanctions relief, energy deals, and a restored Russian-Western relationship. Though some Russian elites hint Putin could eventually accept a cease-fire at current front lines, for now, he remains committed to using force to secure further gains before any settlement. New York Times

Putin ready for talks with Ukraine 'without preconditions,' Kremlin says. Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff he is ready for peace talks with Ukraine "without preconditions," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday. However, Kyiv remains skeptical, noting Russia continues to demand territorial concessions, NATO neutrality, and military limits for Ukraine. The announcement follows a deadly Russian missile strike on Kyiv that killed 12 civilians. Ukraine insists any negotiations must preserve its territorial integrity and begin with a full ceasefire. Despite claims of supporting de-escalation, Russia has repeatedly violated both frontline ceasefire efforts and a separate energy infrastructure truce brokered by President Donald Trump. Kyiv Independent

Europe backs Ukraine while still easing it toward the U.S. peace deal. European leaders are backing Ukraine publicly while privately nudging President Volodymyr Zelensky toward compromise on a U.S.-brokered peace deal seen as favoring Russia. France and Britain continue to insist on a complete cease-fire and robust security guarantees for Ukraine, helping Kyiv resist U.S. pressure while acknowledging Europe cannot fully replace American military support. Europe has proposed a counteroffer with tougher conditions for Russia, including gradual sanctions relief and reconstruction funded by frozen Russian assets. Yet officials recognize Ukraine may have to tolerate de facto Russian control of some territories. European leaders warn that conceding too much risks appeasing Russian aggression. Washington Post

Trump plan to let Russia keep Ukraine land ‘set in stone.’ President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine, which would allow Russia to retain occupied territories including Crimea, is described as "set in stone," according to sources close to U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. Trump pressured President Volodymyr Zelensky in Rome to accept the deal or risk losing U.S. support. The plan demands Ukraine accept Russia’s de facto control without formal legal recognition. Ukraine’s leaders, however, insist they will never recognize Russia’s annexations. European leaders back Ukraine but fear Trump’s hard line could force painful concessions. Meanwhile, Kyiv warns that only Russia’s complete defeat can end the war sustainably. The Times

Ukraine '3 weeks late' in signing minerals deal, peace talks 'going smoothly,' Trump says. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Ukraine is "at least three weeks late" in finalizing a minerals deal with Washington. Trump criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky directly but said peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are "going smoothly" and predicted success. Trump has pushed for concessions including U.S. recognition of Russian control of Crimea and barring Ukraine from NATO. The minerals deal, seen by the U.S. as a way to bolster Ukraine economically and pressure Russia, has been delayed since a heated argument between Trump and Zelensky in February. Kyiv Independent

Rubio: Trump to decide this week on whether to continue Ukraine war talks.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on NBC’s Meet the Press” Sunday that the Trump administration will decide this week whether to continue pursuing talks to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.   ““We have to make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in or if it’s time to sort of focus on some other issues that are equally if not more important in some cases,” he said. “We want to see it happen.  There are reasons to be optimistic, but there are reasons to be realistic of course as well. We’re close, but we’re not close enough.” In an interview on CBS News’s Face the Nation, recorded last Thursday, Russian foreign minister Sergey V. Lavrov said, “We are ready to reach a deal.  But there are still some specific points — elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned.” Also Thursday, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Kyiv , killing at least 12 people and prompting President Trump to post on Truth Social, “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”  New York Times

Ukraine’s fighters fear Russian attacks and Trump’s ceasefire. Ukrainian forces are under immense pressure as Russia intensifies attacks in the east and Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, negotiates a ceasefire with Vladimir Putin favoring Russian gains. Ukrainian leaders reject the proposed deal—which would freeze the front lines, lift sanctions on Russia, and recognize Crimea's annexation—as a betrayal. On the front, the situation is grim: Russia is launching mass assaults, and Ukraine is slowly losing ground due to manpower shortages. Soldiers want a ceasefire to save lives but fear political deals that concede too much. The battlefield remains brutal, with trapped Ukrainian troops and escalating Russian offensives. The Economist

Russia wants to 'deceive America,' 'drag out war,' Zelensky says. In his evening address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is trying to "deceive America and others" to "drag out this war." Following his Saturday meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the Vatican, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s demand for a "full and unconditional ceasefire," accusing Moscow of pretending to engage while escalating attacks. "Since March 11... the Russians have used almost 8,500 aerial bombs, almost 200 missiles, and almost 3,000 Shaheds," he said, mostly targeting civilians. Zelensky called for greater pressure on Russia, noting Kyiv had agreed to a U.S. ceasefire proposal over a month ago. Kyiv Independent

Trump Says Putin Might Not Be Serious About Peace After Meeting with Zelensky. At Pope Francis’ funeral in Vatican City, President Donald Trump met privately Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, their first meeting since a heated Oval Office confrontation in February. Afterward, Trump posted on Truth Social, expressing doubt about Vladimir Putin’s sincerity toward peace, writing: “I am concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin doesn’t want to stop the war and might just be tapping me along.” Trump also threatened additional sanctions on Russia. The comment came after Republican Senator Chuck Grassley urged Trump to sanction Putin, citing “clear evidence that he is playing America as a patsy.” Despite proposing a peace plan heavily favoring Russia, including U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian, Trump simultaneously voiced frustration at Moscow's behavior. Meanwhile, Zelensky posted about the meeting, calling it a "very symbolic meeting that has the potential to become historic," though significant gaps remain among U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian positions. AxiosNew York Times Reuters New York Times CNN Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters 

With Trump-Zelensky Meeting, Ukrainians See a Glimmer of Hope. After months of tension, a short but symbolic meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky in Rome offered Ukrainians a glimmer of hope. Trump, previously seen as favoring Russia’s position, hinted at a tougher stance on President Vladimir Putin after a deadly Russian missile strike on Kyiv, questioning Putin’s commitment to peace and suggesting more sanctions might be needed. This marked a shift from the Trump administration’s prior push for a peace plan viewed as heavily favoring Moscow, including recognizing Crimea as Russian. The direct conversation heartened Ukrainians, and photos showed Trump and Zelensky speaking as equals. Still, pressure remains on Ukraine to accept concessions for peace, even as Ukrainian leaders insist that any deal must include strong security guarantees. Despite the brief optimism, doubts linger about Trump’s commitment, underscored by his swift departure from Rome and cancellation of a planned second meeting. New York Times

Russia launches nearly 150 drones against Ukraine. Russia launched nearly 150 drones and airstrikes across Ukraine early Sunday, killing at least four people. Three died in airstrikes on Kostyantynivka in Donetsk, and one in a drone attack on Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine’s air force said it intercepted 57 drones and jammed 67 more. Additional injuries were reported in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and Kherson. The attacks came as U.S. President Donald Trump voiced new doubts about Vladimir Putin’s willingness to reach a peace deal. Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Trump’s plan to give Ukrainian land to Russia ‘a capitulation,’ Germany warns. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned on Sunday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace plan — which proposes ceding Ukrainian land to Russia — would amount to "a capitulation." Speaking to German broadcaster ARD, Pistorius criticized the plan, saying Ukraine could have reached a similar outcome a year earlier "practically through surrender" and that Trump’s proposal offers "no added value." Germany’s response underscores strong European opposition to legitimizing Russian territorial gains through diplomacy, particularly over Crimea and other occupied regions, amid ongoing U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire. CNN

Trump Tells Americans What Putin Wants Them to Hear. Bloomberg’s analysis reveals that since a February 12, 2025, call with Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine has increasingly mirrored Kremlin narratives. Using AI to scan over 300 Trump comments and 3,000 administration posts, researchers found Trump echoing Russian positions on NATO, Crimea, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy. Experts, including Fiona Hill, warn this alignment risks legitimizing Russian aggression and undermining decades of U.S. foreign policy. Trump's proposals to recognize Crimea as Russian and criticize Zelensky as a “dictator” have raised alarms in Europe and among national security analysts. Despite occasional criticism of Putin, Trump’s eagerness to secure a quick peace deal risks ceding Ukrainian territory and rewarding military aggression. Analysts suggest Trump’s frustration with stalled negotiations has led to repeated concessions, increasing the danger that U.S. policy could shift toward acceptance of Russian-imposed territorial changes, with profound consequences for global security norms. Bloomberg

Russia’s Lavrov Digs in on Control of Ukrainian Nuclear Plant. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday that Russia has not received any U.S. proposal to give up control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. Lavrov insisted that "no change is conceivable," reaffirming Moscow’s March position that it will retain full control. He claimed the plant’s safety requirements are "fully implemented." His comments come amid U.S. efforts to forge a Ukraine peace deal during a critical diplomatic week. Bloomberg

For the first time, North Korea confirms troop deployment to Russia, celebrates 'heroes'. North Korea has confirmed for the first time that it sent “excellent” soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine's Kursk region, celebrating their "heroic feats" and pledging to honor them with a monument. The isolated regime did not disclose the number of troops, but U.S., Ukrainian, and South Korean officials estimate around 12,000 North Koreans were deployed, suffering heavy casualties but adapting quickly to modern warfare. According to Ukrainian forces, the North Korean soldiers, who were described as highly motivated, were also inclined to fight to the death or commit suicide with grenades. The North’s announcement, posted on the front page of state-backed newspaper Rodong Sinmun, highlights deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang under their 2024 strategic pact. North Korea has also supplied Russia with weapons, further fueling the war. While Russia claimed victory in Kursk, Ukraine disputed it, and North Korea vowed continued cooperation with Russia against the West. Washington Post Yonhap News Agency Bloomberg Reuters The Guardian Al Jazeera South China Morning Post 

ANALYSIS–How Trump Plays into Putin’s Hands, From Ukraine to Slashing U.S. Institutions. In his first 100 days back in office, President Donald Trump has taken actions that significantly benefit Russia. His Ukraine peace plan pressures Kyiv to cede territory, bans NATO membership, and lets Russia keep its seized lands. Meanwhile, Trump moved to dismantle Voice of America and other democracy programs opposed by Moscow — although a federal judge has temporarily blocked the VoA shutdown. He paused cyber defenses, froze sanctions enforcement, and exempted Russia from new tariffs while targeting Ukraine. Trump has also floated lifting sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Critics like Ivo Daalder say Trump has “played right into Putin’s hands,” while Trump insists he acts only for U.S. interests. In a new interview, Trump declared: “Crimea will stay with Russia,” reversing longstanding U.S. policy. Analysts warn these moves weaken America’s position and empower Russia at a critical geopolitical moment. New York Times

Trump says Ukraine deal close after envoy Witkoff meets Putin. U.S. President Donald Trump said a Ukraine peace deal is "very close" after his envoy, real estate billionaire Steve Witkoff, met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow for three hours. Trump posted that “most of the major points are agreed to” and urged Kyiv and Moscow to meet directly. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described the talks as "constructive" and said U.S. and Russian positions have moved closer. However, Ukraine and European allies reject key U.S. proposals, particularly U.S. recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea and parts of occupied Ukraine. Critics question Witkoff’s diplomatic inexperience and closeness to Kremlin narratives. Reuters

Ukrainian Peace Plan Hints at Concessions, but Major Obstacles Remain. Ukraine has drafted a counterproposal to President Donald Trump's peace plan for ending the war with Russia, rejecting key U.S. demands while hinting at potential concessions. Kyiv’s plan rules out restrictions on its military and demands a U.S.-backed European security presence, as well as using frozen Russian assets for reconstruction. However, it notably omits demands for immediate NATO membership and full restoration of all seized territories, signaling a softer stance. Trump, attending Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome, said Ukraine and Russia were "very close" to a deal, though fighting continues. Russia has dismissed a cease-fire, and major territorial issues remain unresolved. Trump’s team supports Ukraine keeping military strength but leans toward freezing current frontlines, leaving Russia in control of large, occupied areas. Despite tensions between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky, both sides are cautiously exploring a path to negotiations, though serious obstacles persist. New York Times

CIA official’s son was killed on battlefield in Ukraine, fighting for Russia. Michael Gloss, the son of senior CIA official Juliane Gallina, was killed in eastern Ukraine in 2024 after becoming disillusioned with the U.S. and joining the Russian military. The Eagle Scout, once an activist for social justice and climate causes, dropped out of college, traveled to Turkey, and later moved to Russian-occupied Ukraine, where he adopted pro-Kremlin views. In one online post, he blasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing the leader of turning Ukrainian people “into ground meat for military industrial complex money.” His death in the Donetsk region, confirmed by the CIA, is described as a personal tragedy unrelated to national security. Gloss's journey reflects a broader trend of disaffected Westerners moving to the European superpower amid rising geopolitical tensions. Russian state statistics show that almost 5,000 Westerners have received temporary residency in the nation since the beginning of 2022. Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine recorded the world's highest military burden in 2024, think tank reports. Ukraine recorded the highest military burden in the world in 2024, spending 34% of its GDP—$64.7 billion—on defense, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI warned Ukraine is allocating all tax revenues to the military, leaving little fiscal space for future increases. Globally, military spending jumped 9.4% to $2.72 trillion, the largest rise since the Cold War. Russia’s defense spending rose 38% to $149 billion, while the U.S. remained the top spender at $997 billion. SIPRI cautioned that soaring defense budgets could trigger lasting economic and social costs worldwide. Kyiv Independent 

Russia detains suspect in car bomb killing of general near Moscow, blames Ukraine. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Saturday it had detained a suspect over the killing of a senior Russian military officer on Friday by a car bomb. The Kremlin blamed Ukraine for the killing of 59-year-old Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. There was no official comment from Kyiv on Moskalik's death. The FSB named the suspect as Ignat Kuzin, saying he was "an agent of the Ukrainian special services.” Moskalik was killed in the town of Balashikha, east of Moscow, hours before U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday. Reuters Politico EU Associated Press 

Russia Claims to Have Retaken Final Village in Its Kursk Region. Russia claims it has retaken the last Ukrainian-held village, Gornal, in the Kursk region, with General Valery Gerasimov reporting success to President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine denies a full retreat, insisting its operations continue. The loss of Ukrainian positions complicates Kyiv’s leverage in peace talks pushed by President Trump. Ukraine’s 2024 surprise incursion into Kursk — the first into Russian territory since World War II — embarrassed Moscow but ultimately failed to secure lasting gains. North Korean troops aided Russia’s counteroffensive. Meanwhile, U.S. suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing further weakened Ukraine’s position, leading to the collapse of most gains. New York Times Reuters 

Ukraine’s Crimea Lies at the Heart of Russia’s Invasion—and Trump’s Peace Plan. Crimea remains a flashpoint in Donald Trump’s push for a Ukraine peace deal, with Trump declaring that "Crimea will stay with Russia" to end the war — a reversal of longstanding U.S. policy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fiercely rejects the idea, vowing never to recognize Russia's 2014 seizure of the Black Sea peninsula. Russia’s occupation began with covert troops storming Crimea's parliament, quickly followed by a sham referendum under military guard. Since then, Moscow has repressed dissent, targeted Crimean Tatars, imported hundreds of thousands of Russians, and militarized Crimea to launch further invasions into Ukraine. Human rights abuses, political detentions, and cultural erasure have been widespread. Crimea has become a logistical hub for Russia’s war machine, with stolen Ukrainian grain shipments and imprisonment of civilians. Zelensky recently reaffirmed Ukraine’s stand by citing a 2018 declaration against border changes by force, warning that ceding Crimea would reward aggression and undermine international law. Wall Street Journal

Air Raids and Antidepressants: Sleep Deprivation Takes a Toll in Ukraine. Sleep deprivation has become a national health crisis in Ukraine as near-nightly Russian drone and missile attacks disrupt rest and deepen psychological trauma. Experts report surging rates of anxiety, depression, and antidepressant use. Many Ukrainians struggle to sleep amid air raid alarms and explosions, leading to chronic "sleep debt" and worsening mental health. Some resort to medication, weighted blankets, or relocating within their homes for safety. Even children are now prescribed sleeping pills. Psychologists warn that sleeplessness compounds the psychological toll of war, turning air sirens and sheltering into a grim, exhausting routine for millions. New York Times

Ukraine loses Su-27 fighter jet repelling Russian drone attack, Air Force says. Ukraine has lost a Su-27 fighter jet while it was repelling a Russian drone attack and providing air support to ground troops on Monday morning, Ukraine's Air Force reported. The pilot ejected and is receiving medical attention, according to the statement. The cause of the incident is under investigation. Kyiv Independent

6 killed, 13 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across several Ukrainian regions in the past day killed at least six civilians and injured 13, local officials said Monday. Strikes hit Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts, damaging homes and injuring a doctor. Kyiv continues to call for an unconditional ceasefire amid Moscow’s escalating assaults. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, April 25-Sunday, April 27. SUNDAY–Ukrainian and Russian forces are rapidly transforming modern warfare through technological and tactical innovations, particularly expanding drone warfare and long-range remote combat. To counter Ukraine’s superior drone capabilities, Russian forces are increasingly using motorcycles, ATVs, and light civilian vehicles in assaults to avoid detection and strike vulnerabilities where heavy armor cannot reach the frontline. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed that Russia will not make any territorial concessions, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed peace plan, which envisions mutual concessions including territory in Kharkiv Oblast and control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian authorities announced the arrest of Ignat Kuzin, accused of planting the improvised explosive device (IED) that killed Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik. SATURDAY– President Donald Trump abandoned the U.S. goal of ending the Ukraine war within his first 100 days, expressing frustration with Vladimir Putin’s sincerity. FRIDAY–Ukrainian and European representatives presented a five-point peace proposal to the United States during London talks on April 23, emphasizing a full ceasefire, strong security guarantees, rejection of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and protection of Ukraine’s military and territorial interests. Reuters published the full text of the U.S. seven-point peace plan, which calls for Ukraine to abandon NATO aspirations, recognizes Russian control over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, and proposes international ceasefire monitoring and postwar economic support. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 25 to push for a major Russian concession, namely recognizing Ukraine’s right to maintain a strong military and defense industry. Russia’s softening stance on territorial claims mainly reflects its weakened military capacity rather than a true shift in strategic goals. At the same time, Russian officials are intensifying propaganda accusing European states of neo-Nazism to justify future aggression against Europe, while Ambassador Alexander Darchiev invoked the World War II U.S.-Soviet alliance to suggest a revival of U.S.-Russia cooperation. Unknown actors assassinated Russian General Yaroslav Moskalik in a car bombing outside Moscow on April 25, an act Russia attributes to Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces made gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, Borova, and near Pokrovsk, while Russian troops advanced near Sumy, Kursk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Kurkakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Pokrovsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War  Saturday-Institute for the Study of War  Friday-Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

The Russian Military Moves That Have Europe on Edge. As global attention remains on Ukraine, Russia is rapidly expanding its military along other European borders, alarming NATO members. Moscow is building new army headquarters near Finland, upgrading bases, rail lines, and arms production, and plans to grow its forces to 1.5 million troops. "We’re expecting some conflict with NATO," warned Ruslan Pukhov, a Moscow-based defense analyst. Despite President Trump dismissing fears of broader Russian ambitions, NATO officials and intelligence reports warn Russia could launch a major conflict within five years if NATO appears weak. Gen. Christopher Cavoli testified that Russia’s army is now “larger than it was at the beginning of the war.” Poland’s defense minister warned, “We don’t have too much time,” urging stronger defenses. Satellite images reveal the expansion of troop housing and railheads near Finland and Norway, as Russia prepares for a potential confrontation. "Size matters," said Finland’s Maj. Gen. Sami Nurmi, summing up Russia’s renewed military strategy.  Wall Street Journal

Vladimir Putin’s money machine is sputtering. After years of surprising resilience, Russia’s economy is now stalling, according to The Economist. Data show growth falling from around 5% in late 2024 to near zero by early 2025. Three main factors explain the slowdown: the end of Russia’s costly "structural transformation" into a war economy; aggressive central bank tightening to control inflation, including maintaining a 21% benchmark interest rate; and worsening external conditions, especially falling oil prices. Weaker global growth, driven in part by escalating U.S. trade wars, and declining Chinese demand have severely impacted Russia’s oil revenue and stock market. The MOEX index has dropped 10% from its peak, and March oil-and-gas tax revenue fell 17% year-on-year. While President Vladimir Putin previously dismissed concerns about slowing growth, the scale of the current downturn—especially in energy exports—poses a threat. Even with President Donald Trump’s political overtures, worsening global economic conditions are hitting Putin’s "money machine" hard. The Economist

Global military expenditure hits $2.7 trillion in record 2024 upswing, says Stockholm think tank. Global military spending reached a record $2.72 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% rise from 2023 and the sharpest increase since the Cold War, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Spending grew across all regions, especially in Europe and the Middle East, driven by conflicts like the war in Ukraine and concerns about U.S. commitment to NATO. Russia's military budget rose 38% to $149 billion, while Ukraine spent $64.7 billion, with military costs consuming 34% of its GDP. U.S. military spending increased by 5.7%, totaling $997 billion and making up 37% of global military expenditures. China came in second place, with approximately $314 billion. "As governments increasingly prioritize military security,” noted SIPRI, “often at the expense of other budget areas, the economic and social trade-offs could have significant effects on societies for years to come." Reuters RFI 

Germany rises to fourth largest world military spender. Germany's military spending rose sharply to $88.5 billion in 2024, making it the fourth-largest defense spender globally and the highest in Central and Western Europe since reunification in 1990. This 28% increase from 2023 was fueled by a now-exhausted €100 billion special fund created in 2022, supporting major arms procurement and military upgrades. Germany also provided $7.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine, second only to the U.S. Globally, defense budgets are rising, with Poland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway all significantly increasing their military expenditures, reflecting a broader trend of heightened security investment across Europe. Breaking Defense Euractiv 

The NATO Country With No Military Gets Serious About Defense.  Iceland, a NATO founding member without a military and fewer than 400,000 people, is reassessing its defense strategy amid growing Arctic militarization, climate change, and tensions between President Trump’s U.S. and Europe. Historically isolated and peaceful, Iceland now hosts NATO forces at Keflavik Air Base, critical for monitoring Russian submarine routes through the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. Gap. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, one of the world’s youngest leaders, is steering a debate on national defense and a possible referendum on restarting European Union accession talks by 2027. While Icelanders traditionally oppose a standing army, the Coast Guard's role is expanding. Trump’s aggressive stance on Greenland and Europe has pushed Iceland to reconsider its alliances. The island’s strategic location and economic success in green energy and tech make it vital to NATO. Iceland remains keen to avoid militarization but increasingly recognizes that active defense partnerships are necessary to secure its future. Wall Street Journal

Dombrovskis says US and EU not close to deal on tariffs. European Union Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the U.S. and EU are still far from a deal to avoid mutual tariffs, despite the EU’s offer of zero tariffs on industrial goods. Washington showed only moderate interest and views the EU’s value-added tax (VAT) as a trade barrier, a claim the EU rejects. Dombrovskis also warned China not to redirect goods blocked by U.S. tariffs into Europe, saying the EU would act to protect its markets if necessary. He emphasized that further market disruptions would harm all sides and urged China to show restraint to avoid escalating global trade tensions. Reuters

Prime ministers of Denmark, Greenland show solidarity in face of Trump pressure. Greenland's new Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen traveled to Copenhagen Saturday for a three-day visit to show unity with Denmark.  Nielsen and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen agreed that Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish  territory,   agreed on Sunday to strengthen their ties in response to  President Donald Trump's interest in taking control of the strategically located Arctic island.  “The talks from the United States have not been respectful,” Nielsen said at a news conference, standing shoulder to shoulder with Frederiksen.  “...That’s why we need in this situation, we need to stand together.” Associated Press BBC Al Jazeera Reuters 

Romanians plagued by online disinformation ahead of a presidential election rerun. Romanians head to the polls for their presidential election May 4, amid a frenetic online disinformation campaign, attributed to unidentified anti-government and pro-Russian actors, making ominous claims that the country is surging toward “imminent war” with Russia.  Calin Georgescu, a far-right populist, won the most votes in the first round of the presidential election, advancing to a runoff against reformist Elena Lasconi of the progressive Save Romania Union party.  Declassified intelligence exposed a highly sophisticated, coordinated Russian campaign promoting Georgescu via TikTok. Moscow denied it meddled.  Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the vote and ordered a redo. Georgescu, who has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and criticized NATO and the EU, was placed under criminal investigation and in March was barred from running in the May 4 election redo.  His supporters staged protests.  TikTok said it took steps to protect Romania’s election integrity, including expanding its team of Romanian-speaking content moderators.  The disinformation spread to Telegram, Facebook and YouTube.  U.S. Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk criticized Romania for voiding last year’s election and barring Georgescu from the May vote.  “If your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars (euros) of digital advertising from a foreign country — then it wasn’t very strong to begin with,” Vance said at the Munich Security Conference in February.   Associated Press 

Turkish authorities arrest critics after arrest of Istanbul’s mayor triggers protests. Istanbul police detained 47 people Saturday after Turkey’s largest protests in more than a decade.  Among those arrested were senior officials from Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality.  The March 19 detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who has challenged President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 22-year rule, sent hundreds of thousands of people into the streets. More than 2,000 people were arrested for taking part in banned protests last month. Associated Press Reuters  France 24 

Killer of Muslim worshipper captured in Italy after manhunt. French politicians have condemned an attack in which a man was stabbed to death while praying at a mosque in Ales in southern France on Friday. On Monday, public prosecutor Abdelkrim Grini announced that the alleged killer was detained in Italy, and that he turned himself in at “an Italian police station, near Florence, last night at around 11-11.30 pm." Paris is ready to initiate extradition procedures. President Emmanuel Macron wrote in a post on X: "Racism and religiously motivated hatred will never belong in France."  Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau on Sunday visited the town of Ales, and said the suspect had made anti-Muslim comments. He reportedly wanted to kill others. Reuters Le Monde Reuters Al Jazeera  

France arrest suspects tied to recent prison attacks. French Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin announced on Monday that suspects have been arrested in connection with recent attacks on French prisons, though he did not specify how many were detained. At least six prisons were targeted earlier this month, including a shooting at Toulon prison with an AK-47 and arson attacks on vehicles outside facilities in Villepinte, Nanterre, Aix-Luynes, and Valence. Reuters Barron's  

The billionaire who wants to Make France Great Again. Billionaire Pierre-Édouard Stérin, a devout Catholic and tech entrepreneur, is quietly reshaping French politics by funding conservative causes with up to €150 million. Though denying exclusive support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Stérin has heavily invested in right-wing projects, aiming to counter "woke insanity" and restore "France’s grandeur." His secretive Périclès project trains candidates and backs local elections. Stérin, who ranks people in an Excel sheet, sees himself as a "business angel" for France’s conservative resurgence. Politico EU 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Israeli jets strike Beirut’s southern suburbs for the third time since a ceasefire began. Israeli jets struck Beirut’s southern suburbs on April 27, 2025, targeting a Hezbollah missile storage facility, marking the third Israeli strike since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire began in November. Israel issued warnings before the attack, urging residents to evacuate. No casualties were immediately reported. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the strike, warning it threatens regional stability. Hezbollah vowed retaliation if attacks continue, while the U.N. urged restraint to preserve the fragile ceasefire and prevent renewed conflict. Associated Press Euronews Bloomberg 

51 deaths reported in Gaza from Israeli strikes, bringing the war’s Palestinian toll to over 52,000. Israeli airstrikes killed 51 Palestinians in Gaza over the past 24 hours, raising the total death toll from the 18-month Israel-Hamas war to 52,243, Gaza’s Health Ministry reported on April 27, 2025. Israel resumed its offensive on March 18, ending a ceasefire, and now controls about 50% of Gaza’s territory. The blockade on food and medicine has continued for nearly 60 days, leaving thousands of children malnourished. Israeli strikes hit multiple civilian sites, killing women and children. Israel says the renewed campaign aims to pressure Hamas to release hostages and blames Hamas for civilian casualties. Associated Press 

For nearly 60 days, Israel has blocked food from Gaza. Palestinians struggle to feed their families. For nearly 60 days, Israel has blocked all food, fuel, and medicine from entering Gaza, leaving 2.3 million Palestinians facing severe shortages. Families survive on canned peas, lentils, and occasional bread, while meat, dairy, and vegetables have vanished from markets. Aid groups warn of mass malnutrition, with thousands of children acutely affected. Charity kitchens are running out of supplies, and prices have skyrocketed. Farmers report collapsing production. Gaza’s devastation from Israel’s offensive, launched after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, has displaced nearly the entire population. Humanitarian workers warn the blockade is pushing Gaza toward mass starvation.  Associated Press 

Iranian elite grows supportive of nuclear talks as economic fears spike. Iranian elites are increasingly supporting nuclear negotiations with the U.S., driven by fears of economic collapse under prolonged sanctions. Media coverage in Iran, even among hard-liners, now frames the talks as a demonstration of Iranian strength. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are working closely, favoring engagement despite lingering distrust of U.S. intentions. Talks resuming in Oman aim to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, entrenched interests benefiting from the black-market economy oppose normalization. Analysts warn that if talks fail, hardline factions could regain influence and derail future diplomacy. Washington Post

Iran says 'extremely cautious' on success of nuclear talks with US. Iran and the U.S. agreed to continue nuclear talks next week after a third round of negotiations in Muscat, Oman. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed "extreme caution" about reaching a deal, despite serious and technical discussions. President Trump remains confident a new pact is possible but warned of military action if diplomacy fails. Key sticking points include Iran’s insistence on maintaining uranium enrichment and its missile program as non-negotiable "red lines." Talks remain difficult and complex, with expert-level meetings shaping a framework. A new high-level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3, with continued diplomatic efforts planned. Reuters Axios Bloomberg 

Netanyahu says Iran's entire nuclear program must go. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday repeated calls for dismantling Iran's entire nuclear infrastructure. The United States and Iran have so far held three rounds of indirect talks, mediated by Gulf state Oman.  The U.S. wants to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran hopes for relief from U.S. economic sanctions. After talks in Rome earlier this month, Oman said that the U.S. and Iran were pursuing an accord that would see Tehran "completely free" of nuclear weapons and sanctions but "maintaining its ability to develop peaceful nuclear energy."  Netanyahu wants to remove "all of the infrastructure” including that for nuclear energy.  Reuters 

Accidental chemical explosion blamed for massive blast in Iran’s port of Bandar Abbas.  A massive explosion at a port in the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbason Saturday killed at least 14 people and injured more than 700, according to state media, and ignited a major fire.  The New York Times reported that a person with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the explosion was caused by sodium perchlorate, a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency quoted an official as saying the explosion was likely set off by containers of chemicals, but did not identify the chemicals. The Iranian authorities did not suggest it was sabotage or a deliberate attack. The security firm Ambrey told the Associated Press that there were indications that sodium perchlorate had been improperly stored at the port. TheFinancial Times reported in January that China had supplied the chemical to Iran to restore stocks depleted by Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel.  CNN BBC Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel  New York Times

Putin orders Russian emergency planes to Iran after blast at Bandar Abbas. President Vladimir Putin dispatched several planes to Iran to assist in the search and rescue operation at Iran's port of Bandar Abbas, Russia's Emergency Ministry said on Sunday. Putin expressed his condolences over the loss of life and offered to provide help to Iran dealing with the aftermath of a blast, the Kremlin said. The emergency ministry said a Beriev Be-200 amphibious aircraft specializing in firefighting, as well as an Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane, would be sent to Iran to help out. Reuters 

U.S. military reports 800 strikes on Houthis, will start limiting disclosure of details on strikes. The U.S. military announced on Sunday that it would not disclose details about its strikes in Yemen, to maintain operational security, while affirming the attacks have had "lethal effects" on Houthi rebels. In a statement, Central Command said, “We are very deliberate in our operational approach, but will not reveal specifics about what we've done or what we will do." President Trump ordered the intensified strikes last month to counter Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping. Since mid-March, the U.S. has targeted over 800 sites, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and leaders, and destroying key facilities. According to Congressional officials, the relentless air campaign, called Operation Rough Rider, has cost American taxpayers more than $1 billion so far. Rights groups and Democratic senators have voiced concerns about civilian casualties, and military planners have expressed worries over the rate of munitions use. Meanwhile, the Houthis continue at tracking ships, claiming solidarity with Palestinians amid ongoing conflict in Gaza. Washington denies responsibility for a deadly explosion near a UNESCO site in Sanaa. Reuters New York Times BBC 

Yemeni Houthis claim to have recovered 68 bodies following U.S. strike on Saada.  A U.S. airstrike on a detention center in Yemen’s Houthi-held Saada province reportedly killed 68 people and wounded 47, according to Houthi-run media. The facility was housing 115 African migrants. This strike comes amid intensified U.S. military operations under President Trump targeting Iran-backed Houthis, including a previous deadly strike on a Red Sea fuel terminal. Reuters 

Israel says it intercepted a missile fired by Houthi militants. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a missile toward Israel on Sunday, which Israel intercepted before it crossed into its territory. The Houthis claimed they targeted Israel’s Nevatim air base with a hypersonic missile. Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes in Houthi-controlled Sanaa killed two people and injured ten others, including women and children. Associated Press  

Syrian letter delivers response to U.S. conditions for sanctions relief. Syria has formally responded to U.S. conditions for potential sanctions relief, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Damascus pledged not to threaten Israel, detailed efforts to dismantle chemical weapons stockpiles, and committed to locating missing Americans, but showed limited progress on removing foreign fighters from leadership posts and permitting U.S. counterterrorism strikes. Syria’s interim government framed some demands as needing “mutual understandings.” While Syria addressed five of the eight U.S. conditions, others remain unresolved. U.S. officials are reviewing the response but have not formally reacted. The Syrian letter expressed hope for talks leading to eased sanctions and reopened embassies. Reuters

Saudi Arabia, Qatar will repay war-torn Syria’s debt to the World Bank. Saudi Arabia and Qatar announced on Sunday that they will pay Syria’s nearly $15 million debt to the World Bank, aiming to help restart the financial institution’s support for the country after 14 years. This move comes in the wake of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, and the subsequent rise of new leadership backed by Riyadh and Doha. Syria’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the assistance, which could facilitate future reconstruction efforts estimated to cost up to $400 billion. Although Western sanctions against Syria largely remain, some U.S., EU, and UK restrictions have been eased, allowing limited economic engagement with the fledgling government. Associated Press Financial Times Bloomberg Al Jazeera 

Syria’s leader rejects Kurdish demands for a decentralized, democratic state. Syria’s Kurdish groups, meeting Saturday in Qamishli, called for a decentralized, democratic Syria that guarantees Kurdish national rights following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Backed by the U.S., Kurdish leaders, including the Syrian Democratic Forces and Democratic Union Party, demanded a constitution that protects ethnic rights, human rights, and women’s participation in government. However, on Sunday, interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa firmly rejected these demands, warning that decentralization efforts threaten Syria’s unity. "The unity of Syrian territory and its people is a red line," his office stated. Sharaa’s government, dominated by Islamist factions, insists that Kurdish calls for federalism or autonomy are unacceptable without national consensus. Although Kurdish groups agreed to merge some governance structures with Damascus last month, tensions remain high, as Kurds fear their cultural and political gains made during Syria’s civil war could be undone in the post-Assad transition. Associated Press Reuters 

A look at the PLO’s new vice president, Hussein al-Sheikh. Hussein al-Sheikh, a close aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, has been named vice president of the Palestine Liberation Organization, positioning him as the front-runner to succeed the 89-year-old Abbas. A veteran politician from Ramallah, al-Sheikh holds significant influence through his control of civilian affairs in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Though controversial at home, he has strong ties to Israel, Gulf countries, and the U.S., recently meeting with President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Saudi Arabia. His succession is not guaranteed; the PLO’s executive committee must ultimately choose a permanent president after Abbas’ departure, amid competition from other rivals. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

US in contact with both India and Pakistan; urges work toward 'responsible solution.' After an April 22 militant attack killed over two dozen people in Indian-administered Kashmir, the U.S. on Sunday urged India and Pakistan to work toward a "responsible solution." Washington expressed strong support for India without blaming Pakistan, amid rising border clashes and India's calls for military retaliation. ​​Reuters Times of India 

China calls for restraint as India, Pakistan exchange small arms fire. China on Monday urged India and Pakistan to exercise restraint following escalating tensions along the Kashmir border. Beijing welcomed all measures aimed at cooling down the situation, calling for stability in the region amid rising military actions and retaliatory steps taken by both nuclear-armed neighbors after recent violence. Reuters 

Indian and Pakistani Soldiers Briefly Exchange Fire Along Kashmir Border. India and Pakistan briefly exchanged fire along the Kashmir border days after militants killed 26 people, mostly tourists, near Pahalgam. The skirmish late last week, which caused no casualties, follows rising tensions, with India accusing Pakistan of “cross-border linkages” and downgrading diplomatic ties, while Pakistan denies involvement and imposed retaliatory measures, including closing its airspace to Indian carriers. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to track down those responsible, while Pakistan’s Senate condemned India’s accusations. Acknowledging a security lapse, Indian officials demolished homes of suspected militants. The United Nations has urged both nations to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation. New York Times Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera France 24 

India test-fires missiles as hostilities mount with Pakistan. The Indian navy test-fired long-range precision missiles on Sunday, as tensions with Pakistan escalated following a brutal terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. On X, the Navy said its “ships undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to re-validate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems, and crew for long-range precision offensive strike.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile, vowed harsh retaliation to the attack, and Pakistan warned of its nuclear capabilities, heightening fears of conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations. The Guardian 

New Delhi inks $7.4 billion deal to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets. India on Monday signed a $7.41 billion deal with France to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets for its navy, expanding its current fleet of 36 Rafales operated by the Air Force. The deal, approved earlier this month by Prime Minister Modi's security cabinet, supports the nation’s efforts to modernize its military, reduce reliance on Russian equipment, and strengthen defenses along its borders with Pakistan and China. It also continues India's longstanding military partnership with France, which has included purchases of Mirage 2000 jets and Scorpene-class submarines. Reuters Naval News 

Explosion at peace gathering in Pakistan's South Waziristan kills 7. Police said a devastating explosion during a meeting of a local peace group in the Pakistani region of South Waziristan killed at least 7 people on Monday. The blast reportedly collapsed one part of a building. A police officer said it is not yet clear who is responsible for the attack. Reuters 

54 militants attempting to sneak into Pakistan from Afghanistan killed by Pakistani soldiers. The Pakistani military on Sunday announced that security forces killed 54 militants who attempted to cross from Afghanistan into North Waziristan, marking one of the deadliest operations in recent years. The military said the militants, who were linked to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), were directed by "foreign masters" to launch attacks inside Pakistan, hinting at Indian involvement without explicitly naming it. Officials praised the operation for preventing possible terrorist attacks. Tensions between Pakistan and India have escalated, with Islamabad accusing New Delhi of using recent violence in Kashmir to distract from Pakistan’s security challenges. Violence from the TTP and Baloch separatists continues to affect Pakistan despite government efforts. Associated Press France 24 

China seizes disputed reef in the South China Sea. China has seized Sandy Cay, a small but strategically significant reef near the Philippines’ Thitu Island in the South China Sea, unfurling a Chinese flag to assert sovereignty. The move, reported by CCTV, marks Beijing’s first official occupation of an unclaimed feature in years and coincides with U.S.-Philippine military drills. The White House called the action “deeply concerning.” Although China’s coastguard left after the flag ceremony, experts warn the symbolic move pressures the Philippines and raises risks of future clashes. On Sunday, Manila said that its forces landed on three sandbanks and displayed the national flag in a pose that mocked China’s photo, reaffirming their country's claim. Sandy Cay’s 12-nautical-mile territorial sea overlaps with Philippine-claimed waters, further straining regional stability amid rising U.S.-China tensions. Financial Times BBC South China Morning Post The Japan Times The Independent Bloomberg 

China attempting to influence Philippine elections, says security official. A Philippine national security official has accused Beijing of trying to influence his country’s upcoming midterm elections after China declared sovereignty over Sandy Cay, an uninhabited reef in the fiercely disputed South China Sea. Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya called the timing of the development suspicious and denied China's claim that it had seized the Pag-asa cays. “Pag-asa cays” is Manila’s term for the collection of small sandbars near the island of Pag-asa, also known internationally as Thitu Island, in the Spratly Islands. China's move, reported by state media, further escalates tensions in the disputed region. Bloomberg Reuters 

Chinese cabinet greenlights nuclear power plant in eastern Zhejiang. China’s cabinet has approved the phase 3 expansion of the Sanmen nuclear power plant in Zhejiang province, according to state media. During the same meeting on Sunday, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, officials also passed a draft law aimed at strengthening the country's medical security and improving medical supply systems. Reuters 

Amid Trump tariffs, China's trade and economy tsar steps into spotlight. As U.S.-China trade tensions escalate under Trump’s new tariffs, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng has emerged as a key figure overseeing Beijing’s economic response. A longtime confidant of Xi Jinping, He initially underwhelmed foreign investors but has recently gained confidence, impressing some Western executives with his command of economic policy. While not a policy innovator, He defends China’s export-driven growth and trade surplus strategy. He will likely lead any future tariff negotiations, though Washington insists talks must involve Xi directly. He’s viewed as loyal to Xi’s directives, prioritizing state-led growth over market liberalization amid China’s mounting economic challenges. Reuters 

U.S. forces deploy anti-ship missiles in Philippines and stage live-fire drills near China hotspots. The U.S. military deployed an anti-ship missile system to the Philippines’ Batan Island for the first time on Sunday, during large-scale joint exercises near Taiwan and the South China Sea. About 9,000 American and 5,000 Filipino troops, plus allies, staged live-fire drills, escalating tensions with China. U.S. officials said the drills strengthen Philippine defense, while China denounced them as provocative. The exercises highlight growing U.S. commitment to regional security amid rising confrontation with Beijing. Associated Press 

U.S., Philippine troops shoot down drones in joint defense drills. U.S. and Philippine troops shot down drones with Stinger missiles during live-fire drills on Sunday as part of the Balikatan exercises amid rising tensions with China. Over 14,000 troops are participating. The drills, held in Zambales province facing the South China Sea, focus on joint national defense. Reuters 

Trump administration game-planning for potential North Korea talks. The Trump administration is quietly preparing for potential renewed talks with North Korea, consulting experts and holding internal discussions, Axios reported April 27, 2025. While no summit is imminent, Trump remains interested in reconnecting with Kim Jong-un. Officials acknowledge the situation has changed significantly, with North Korea now enshrining its nuclear status and strengthening ties with Russia. Closed-door meetings have considered possible diplomatic channels and interlocutors. Experts warn Kim is unlikely to negotiate denuclearization, though talks on arms control may be possible. Trump faces diminished leverage compared to his first term, as China shows little willingness to pressure Pyongyang. Axios 

North Korean leader Kim touts new naval destroyer, blames US for tensions. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled a new 5,000-ton naval destroyer on Friday, calling it a major step to expand his nuclear military’s range and preemptive strike capabilities. Kim blamed U.S. and allied military exercises for rising tensions and vowed a decisive response. He also reaffirmed ambitions for a nuclear-powered submarine. Meanwhile, Kim’s foreign policy has pivoted toward Russia, raising concerns he could gain economic aid and advanced military technology to bolster his arsenal. Associated Press 

South Korea’s liberal leader Lee wins party nomination to run for president. Lee Jae-myung, former leader of South Korea’s Democratic Party, won the party’s presidential nomination on Sunday, and will contest the June 3 snap election triggered by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ouster. Leading in opinion polls, Lee vowed to "unite people," restore democracy, and boost economic growth. His nomination marks a comeback after past legal troubles. Lee will face the ruling People Power Party’s candidate, to be chosen on May 3, amid a tense political climate. Bloomberg Associated Press 

Singapore politicians issue warnings against foreign interference in election. Singapore’s political leaders warned against foreign meddling in the upcoming elections, citing attempts by foreign actors, including a Malaysian political party, to influence voters. At political rallies over the weekend, both ruling and opposition leaders condemned external involvement, emphasizing that Singapore’s politics must remain independent. The government ordered Meta to remove Facebook ads linked to foreign sources under the Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act, passed in 2021. Authorities also flagged individuals connected to Malaysian politics and past extremist activities. Concerns were raised about misinformation spread by foreign bots as the nine-day election campaign moves toward the May 3 vote. Bloomberg 

AFRICA

US oversees peace pledge for Congo’s restive east, amid efforts to ease access to critical minerals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week oversaw Congo and Rwanda signing a pledge to pursue peace and improve security in eastern Congo, aiming to secure U.S. access to critical minerals like cobalt, gold, diamond and copper. The Trump administration views this as part of a broader shift toward foreign policies that directly benefit U.S. strategic and financial interests. On Friday, Rubio asserted that peace “will open the door for greater U.S. and broader Western investment, which will bring about economic opportunities and prosperity.” Although Congo and Rwanda hope Washington’s involvement will stabilize the volatile region, concerns remain that it could worsen violence, exploitation, and corruption. Civil society reactions in Congo are mixed, with hopes for peace tempered by skepticism about U.S. motives and fears of government mismanagement. If successful, the deal could bring economic growth; if not, it risks becoming another failed foreign intervention. Associated Press

12 soldiers killed in attack by gunmen in western Niger border village. Twelve soldiers were killed in western Niger on Friday when armed men launched a surprise attack near Sakoira, a village close to the Mali and Burkina Faso borders. The army blamed "terrorists" for the assault but did not name a group, though the area has seen frequent violence from jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State. After recent military coups, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali ousted French forces, turned to Russian mercenaries, and formed the Alliance of Sahel States. Despite these moves, violence in the Sahel has worsened, with record attacks and civilian deaths. Associated Press The Defense Post Reuters  

Gabon confirms Oligui Nguema, who orchestrated 2023 coup, won presidential election. Gabon’s Constitutional Court on April 25 confirmed that Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who led the 2023 coup that toppled a five-decade political dynasty, won the April 12 presidential election with nearly 95% of the vote. He defeated seven opponents, with former Prime Minister Alain Claude Bilie-By-Nze finishing second with just 3%. Allegations of state resource misuse surfaced, but the government denies them. Voter turnout was officially reported at about 70%, lower than initial figures. This was Gabon’s first election since ending the 50-year political regime, and Oligui Nguema is set to be inaugurated on May 3 for a seven-year term. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump Promised a Markets Boom. 100 Days In, Stocks Have Only Seen Damage. Despite President Donald Trump's promise of a market boom, the S&P 500 has fallen about 8% during his first 100 days, marking the worst start for a U.S. president since Gerald Ford. Volatility surged due to Trump's sweeping tariffs and trade wars, unsettling investors. Wall Street faces continued uncertainty, with defensive strategies rising and equity forecasts slashed. Analysts warn that persistent trade policy confusion is weighing on business investment, consumer spending, and corporate earnings growth. Bloomberg

Trump’s team brushes off economic concerns ahead of 100-day mark. As President Donald Trump nears the 100-day mark of his second term, new polls show sharp declines in his economic approval ratings, with just 39% backing his strategy and over 70% of Americans viewing the economy as "not so good" or "poor." Despite this, Trump officials dismiss concerns, defending the administration’s aggressive tariffs as part of a long-term plan to realign the economy and lower taxes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Trump’s approach “strategic uncertainty,” arguing it strengthens U.S. leverage in trade talks. Trump plans to celebrate the milestone with a rally in Michigan on Tuesday. Politico EU 

China’s Huawei Develops New AI Chip, Seeking to Match Nvidia. Huawei is preparing to test its new Ascend 910D AI chip, aiming to rival Nvidia’s H100 despite U.S. sanctions. The move highlights the resilience of China’s semiconductor industry, as Huawei advances its technology by integrating multiple silicon dies to boost performance. Although the 910D is less power-efficient than Nvidia’s chip, Huawei is already shipping hundreds of thousands of its earlier 910B and 910C models to Chinese tech firms. Washington’s new restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips have created an opportunity for Huawei, though manufacturing bottlenecks and access to advanced chip-making equipment remain major obstacles. Wall Street Journal Reuters

Israel’s AI Experiments in Gaza War Raise Ethical Concerns. Israel’s war in Gaza has accelerated the battlefield use of artificial intelligence, raising ethical concerns. After the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Israeli intelligence rapidly deployed AI tools, including an audio analysis system that helped locate and kill Hamas commander Ibrahim Biari—at the cost of over 125 civilian lives. Israel also used AI for facial recognition, Arabic-language chatbots, and automated target selection with mixed accuracy, leading to mistaken arrests and civilian casualties. Many innovations came from "The Studio," an AI hub staffed by Unit 8200 soldiers and reservists from tech giants like Google and Microsoft. Officials acknowledge AI provided critical military advantages but warn of grave ethical risks without human oversight. Israel’s unprecedented real-time battlefield testing of AI offers a glimpse into future warfare but also into the dangers of using evolving technologies without sufficient safeguards, according to Israeli and American defense sources. New York Times Jerusalem Post Times of Israel 

Sam Altman: AI privacy safeguards can’t be established before ‘problems emerge.’ Speaking at the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP) summit in Washington, D.C., OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned that AI privacy safeguards can't be fully designed before “problems emerge.” He called for a “dynamic response,” arguing that real-world impacts must guide regulation. Altman noted a major gap: people often share personal, sensitive information with AI models, yet there are no confidentiality protections similar to doctor-patient privilege. “Society will have to come up with a new sort of framework,” he said, stressing that tight, rapid feedback loops — not preemptive rules — are key to responsibly managing AI’s evolving risks. The Record 

The Jobs That Will Fall First As AI Takes Over the Workplace. Artificial intelligence could automate or transform up to 60% of jobs by 2050, with major disruption hitting data entry, customer service, bookkeeping, basic legal research, and media first. Experts like Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon warn white-collar roles in finance, law, and tech will face accelerated restructuring by 2035. Creative storytelling, senior leadership, healthcare, education, and hands-on trades like construction are more resistant, requiring human judgment and emotional intelligence. To survive the shift, workers must invest in critical thinking, digital fluency, and AI-adjacent skills while pushing for retraining programs to keep pace with rapid technological change. Forbes 

CISA gets new second-in-command: Madhu Gottumukkala. Madhu Gottumukkala has been appointed deputy director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), leaving his role as South Dakota's chief information officer and commissioner of the Bureau of Information and Telecommunication. He will officially depart on May 16. Gottumukkala, a Dakota State University graduate, will step into the position previously held by Nitin Natarajan throughout President Biden’s term. Meanwhile, Sean Plankey, nominated for CISA director, awaits a Senate hearing, currently delayed by Senator Ron Wyden. Cyberscoop Cybersecurity Dive

Federal cyber officials say AI accelerates analysis work for humans. Federal cybersecurity officials said they are using, or considering using, artificial intelligence to speed up tasks traditionally handled by human analysts. AI is helping with administrative work like compliance checks and faster data analysis, allowing analysts to focus on more complex issues. Officials from the Air Force and State Department highlighted AI's role in modernizing operations and managing large volumes of data. While AI enhances defensive capabilities, it is recognized as a double-edged sword in cybersecurity, capable of aiding both defense and offense. Cyber Command noted AI now dramatically speeds up network traffic analysis that once took days. Cyberscoop  

North Korean hackers spread malware via bogus crypto firms, job interview lures. North Korean-linked hackers responsible for the "Contagious Interview" campaign have set up fake cryptocurrency consulting companies to distribute malware through fraudulent job interviews. Using front companies like BlockNovas, Angeloper Agency, and SoftGlide, they spread malware families such as BeaverTail, InvisibleFerret, and OtterCookie. The hackers used social media platforms, fake employee profiles, and AI-generated images to lure victims, and targeted cryptocurrency wallets and sensitive data. Some operations were traced to Russian IP addresses near North Korea's border, suggesting possible cooperation between North Korean and Russian entities. U.S. authorities have seized related domains as part of a crackdown. The Hacker News 

Iran says it repelled massive cyber attack. Iran said it repelled a major cyberattack on its infrastructure on Sunday, just a day after a large explosion damaged its key port of Bandar Abbas and nuclear talks with the U.S. concluded in Oman. Iranian officials provided few details but called the attack one of the most complex they had faced. Iran has previously blamed Israel for similar cyberattacks, amid ongoing tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program and regional activities. Reuters 

Africa’s biggest telecom warns of cyber incident. MTN Group, a major South African telecommunications company, announced last week that it suffered a cyberattack that exposed the personal information of an unspecified number of customers. While MTN assured that its core systems remain secure, it has notified law enforcement across the countries it operates in. The company, which serves over 200 million subscribers, has not disclosed what data was accessed or who was responsible. No group has claimed the attack yet. This incident follows a wave of cyberattacks on South African companies, highlighting ongoing cybersecurity challenges in the country. The Record Bleeping Computer 

New Zealand to introduce new regulations for space-related infrastructure by July. New Zealand will implement new legislation by July to regulate ground-based space infrastructure, aiming to prevent foreign interference, Space Minister Judith Collins announced. The move follows intelligence warnings that foreign entities tried to establish facilities that could support military activities harmful to New Zealand. The new rules will require operators to meet strict security and due diligence standards. While China was not directly named, it was noted as a complex concern. The legislation reinforces New Zealand’s commitment to national security as part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Reuters RNZ 

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