Open Source Report for Friday, March 7, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Friday, March 7, 2025

Trump: If NATO members don't pay, U.S. won't defend them

Russia launches major missile attack on Ukraine

Maxar cuts Ukraine’s access to satellite imagery

U.S. considers stopping vessels at sea to disrupt Iran's oil exports

China vows to "resolutely counter" U.S. tariffs, says 'major powers should not bully the weak’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

U.S. Envoy: Zelensky to Blame for American Aid Pause. At a Council on Foreign Relations symposium on Thursday, U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the pause in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing, citing Zelensky’s combative Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump. Kellogg defended the policy as a way to pressure Ukraine into peace talks. He also justified Trump’s outreach to Russia, arguing that isolating Moscow is unsustainable. Experts criticized the administration for pressuring Ukraine while offering diplomatic concessions to Russia. Retired General Philip Breedlove and others warned that the approach weakens U.S. leverage and benefits the Kremlin. The Cipher Brief

Security Assurances and Lasting Peace in Ukraine.  Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA Director of East Asia Operations, looks at the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine — through the lens of past negotiations with North Korea. “It’s time to provide Ukraine with meaningful security assurances – and not just a 'piece of paper' — to protect their independence and sovereignty,” DeTrani writes. “This is especially important given Russia’s violation of past security commitments made to Ukraine... a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine is achievable, especially with Mr. Trump’s focus on ending this war peacefully and ensuring we don’t stumble into World War III. But real guarantees of Ukraine’s security are an essential element in making that happen."  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says that Ukraine and Russia have no choice but to make a peace deal. In Oval Office remarks on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia both seek to reach a peace agreement because they have no other choice. "I think Ukraine wants to make a deal because they don’t have a choice. I also think that Russia wants to make a deal because in a certain different way - a different way that only I know - they have no choice either,” Trump said while speaking to reporters. RBC Ukraine Fox News  BBC

Top U.S. Officials to Meet Ukraine Counterparts Next Week in Saudi Arabia. U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss a framework for peace talks after tensions flared between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump cut off military aid to Ukraine following last week’s contentious Oval Office meeting, pressuring Kyiv to engage in negotiations. Zelensky has since expressed gratitude and willingness to pursue peace, a shift seen as an attempt to restore ties with Washington. The U.S. delegation—led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and special envoy Steve Witkoff—previously met with Russian officials in Riyadh, raising concerns in Kyiv. Wall Street Journal Axios New York Times

Zelensky says he is going to Saudi Arabia on Monday, will meet Saudi crown prince. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he will visit Saudi Arabia on Monday to meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman before his team engages with U.S. officials in Riyadh. “After that, my team will remain in Saudi Arabia to work with our American partners. Ukraine is most interested in peace,” he wrote on Telegram. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed discussions on a potential peace framework. Reuters

Zelensky's approval rating jumps to 68% after Trump clash, poll shows. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s approval rating surged to 68% after his heated Oval Office exchange with U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 28, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll. Before the dispute, his approval stood at 57%. Meanwhile, Trump and Elon Musk accused Zelensky of avoiding elections, despite Ukraine’s constitutional prohibition during martial law. The poll, conducted via phone interviews, surveyed 1,029 Ukrainians in government-controlled areas between Feb. 14 and March 4. Kyiv Independent

U.S. is ‘destroying’ world order, Ukrainian ambassador warns. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK and former military chief, sharply criticized the U.S., saying it is “finally destroying” the world order by sidelining Ukraine and Europe in negotiations with Russia. At Chatham House in London, he warned, “It’s not just the ‘axis of evil’ and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the U.S. is finally destroying this order.” He cautioned that Washington is trying to shift security responsibilities to Europe, adding, “We can say that in the near future NATO likewise could stop existing.” He accused the White House of “taking steps towards the Kremlin,” warning that “the next target of Russia could be Europe.” His remarks come as European leaders held an emergency summit on Thursday to reaffirm support for Ukraine after the U.S. halted military aid and intelligence sharing. CNN

EU promises big on defense, but risks leaving Ukraine disappointed. At a Brussels summit on Thursday, European Union leaders pledged continued support for Ukraine but failed to agree on new military aid commitments. While they announced plans to expand Europe's defense industry, immediate assistance for Kyiv was largely absent. Several EU members have pledged to provide up to €15 billion in additional aid for Ukraine, European Council President Antonio Costa. But a €20 billion aid proposal stalled due to opposition from Hungary and divisions among other EU members. Instead, leaders focused on long-term initiatives, including joint defense procurement and an €800 billion rearmament plan. Talks on Ukraine lasted just 15 minutes, while most of the 10-hour summit centered on Europe’s broader security concerns.“Today, we have also tasked the Council to work urgently on further initiatives to address Ukraine’s pressing military and defense needs," Costa said. Despite warm words and symbolic gestures, Ukraine left with little tangible support. Politico EU Bloomberg Financial Times EU Observer Kyiv Independent 

Norway to increase aid for Ukraine to $7.8 billion in 2025. Norway will increase its aid to Ukraine to $7.8 billion in 2025, nearly quadrupling its planned military assistance. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said the boost is necessary for Ukraine’s defense and European stability. While the exact allocation of funds remains unclear, Norwegian media reported it will be based on Ukraine’s needs. Norway has been a strong supporter of Ukraine. Støre criticized the Trump administration’s decision to halt U.S. military aid.. Norway is also developing a funding model to directly support Ukraine’s defense industry. Kyiv Independent

Meloni Backs Giving Ukraine NATO Security Without Membership. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed extending NATO’s security guarantees to Ukraine without granting full membership. Speaking at a European Union summit in Brussels on Thursday, she argued that applying NATO’s Article 5 protection would be more effective than deploying European peacekeepers. This marks her most explicit endorsement of the idea amid European efforts to strengthen Kyiv as President Donald Trump pushes for a quick resolution to the war. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently ruled out Ukraine’s NATO membership, making U.S. support for Meloni’s proposal unlikely. While Meloni is seen as a bridge to Trump, her plan faces skepticism in Washington. Bloomberg

Why Ukraine’s Allies Are Divided Over Using $300 Billion in Russian Assets. European countries remain divided over whether to seize $300 billion in Russian assets frozen after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The bulk of the assets—around $205 billion—are held in Belgium’s Euroclear, with smaller amounts in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and European financial hubs. While the U.S. and some European nations, including Poland and the Baltic states, advocate for seizure to aid Kyiv, Germany, France, and Italy oppose the move, fearing financial instability and potential retaliation. The G-7 has approved a $50 billion loan backed by interest earnings on the assets, but outright confiscation remains contentious. Some argue seizing the funds could set a dangerous precedent, while others insist Russia must pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The Kremlin has hinted at relinquishing claims on the assets if they support rebuilding efforts in both Ukrainian- and Russian-occupied areas. The Trump administration has not outlined its stance on the issue. Wall Street Journal

Maxar Cuts Off Ukraine’s Access To Satellite Imagery.  American aerospace company Maxar Technologies has limited sharing satellite imagery to Ukraine. The company said it is doing this “in response to an administrative request,” referring to the Trump administration’s halt to intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which extends to both the U.S. government and American companies and commercial services. Maxar’s data has been critical for tracking Russian troop movements and assessing battlefield damage. In response, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced France’s willingness to share intelligence with Ukraine. Militarnyi

Turkey ready to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, source says. Turkey is open to sending troops to Ukraine as part of a future peacekeeping mission if deemed necessary, a Turkish defense ministry source said. Any deployment would require a ceasefire and initially involve non-combat units. While discussions remain conceptual, Turkish media reported President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan previously raised the issue with Ukrainian and Russian officials. Turkey, maintaining ties with both sides, has mediated past agreements but has avoided joining Western sanctions against Russia. Reuters

Russia strikes Ukrainian critical infrastructure in first major missile attack since U.S. support pause. Russian forces launched a mass missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight on Friday, striking critical energy and gas infrastructure. Naftogaz reported damage to gas production facilities, while Poltava saw pipeline damage and two civilians injured. In Kharkiv, at least five were wounded when a civilian enterprise was hit. Attacks also targeted infrastructure in Ternopil, Chernihiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 34 missiles and 100 drones launched in the attack. Kyiv deployed F-16s and Mirage 2000 jets for interceptions. This marked the first confirmed case of Kyiv using the French-provided Mirage 2000 jets — delivered a month ago — in combat. This was the first major Russian missile attack since the U.S. halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent Associated Press Reuters

Russian says its troops capture another village in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed on Thursday that its forces captured Andriivka, west of Kurakhove in Donetsk. Ukraine’s General Staff did not confirm the loss but reported heavy fighting in the area, with 17 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. The military blog DeepState noted control over Andriivka remains uncertain. Russia continues slow advances in Donetsk, focusing on Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. Ukrainian forces have recently reported success in defending the town. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, March 6. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials ruled out any concessions or ceasefire agreements in future peace negotiations, insisting that Russia will dictate the terms. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine, equating it to a NATO intervention. Lavrov insisted that any peace deal must address Russia’s claims about NATO expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians. The Kremlin is using the pause in US military aid to push a false narrative of Russia's inevitable victory and pressure the West into concessions. The Kremlin seized on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s characterization of the war as a "proxy war," using it to validate Russia’s claims against the West. US Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg dismissed the 2022 Istanbul protocols as a viable peace framework, calling for a new approach. Ukrainian opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko rejected holding elections before the end of martial law, citing constitutional restrictions. France, the Netherlands, and the UK announced new military aid packages for Ukraine, with France pledging intelligence support, the Netherlands reserving €3.5 billion for future aid, and the UK securing a drone contract. Putin reassured the Russian public that conscripts would not be sent to war amid reports of forced contract signings in the Russian military.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk direction, while Russian forces made gains in multiple areas, including Kupyansk and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump postpones some Canada, Mexico tariffs for a month. President Donald Trump gave Mexico and Canada a one-month reprieve from 25% tariffs on goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Thursday, as the administration’s stuttered-step trade policy sank markets and raised the specter of recession. A White House official said Trump granted the tariff reprieve after meetings with the chief executives of Ford, GM and Stellantis. The auto companies promised to move supply chains from Mexico and Canada back to the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported that about 40% of U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico fell outside USMCA but used to pass through duty-free, but will still be hit with the 25% tariffs. The Journal reported that Mexican products in that category included computers, medical equipment, phones and beer. Canadian products in the same category included petroleum gases, aluminum, airplanes and turbojet engines. According to the Journal, the analytics firm Trade Partnership Worldwide estimated that Mexican and Canadian companies that export non-USMCA-covered goods to the U.S. might pay $250 million a day in new tariffs. Canadian energy exports to the U.S., which totaled $124 billion in 2024, would be subjected to 10% tariffs, the White House said Thursday. The rules will be highly complex, and the Trump administration may change them again without notice or explanation. As a result, there’s no reliable, comprehensive list of goods to be hit with new tariffs. The market will likely remain disrupted for some time.  Trump is also sticking with his plan to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and broader tariffs imposed on a host of countries next month. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said his province will maintain a 25% export tax on electricity it sells to New York, Michigan and Minnesota until Trump stops making all tariff threats against Canada. Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal New York Times Washington Post  

‘Elbows up!’ Canadian rallying cry is a hockey fight signal. Last weekend, Canadian actor and comedian Mike Myers, appearing on Saturday Night LIve, donned a "Canada is not for sale" T-shirt, mouthed the words "elbows up" and tapped his own left elbow.  That slogan, which in ice hockey slang means “Get ready to fight,” is showing up on signs at anti-U.S. protests across Canada and in social media a #ElbowsUp.President Donald Trump’s tariffs and jibes that Canada should become the 51st state have infuriated Canadians, and they’re pushing back.  Canada "can't be a punching bag, and we have to get our elbows up,” Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew declared in January.  The slogan evokes one of Canada’s most beloved hockey stars, Gordie Howe from Saskatchewan, who used to be known as Mr. Elbows for his method of discipline: "If a guy slashed me, I'd grab his stick, pull him up alongside me and elbow him in the head.” During the 4 Nations Face Off hockey tournament last month, when Team Canada and Team USA faced each other, three fights broke out inside of  the first nine seconds of play. Canada lost the first game but went on to triumph over the U.S. in the tournament final, triggering ecstatic responses from Canadian politicians. "You can't take our country - and you can't take our game," Trudeau wrote on X. CNN CBC  CTV

Frustrated Mexican and Canadian officials say they can’t figure out what the U.S. wants.  Mexican and Canadian officials, increasingly frustrated by tariff negotiations with the Trump administration, complain that the U.S. hasn’t made clear what will satisfy its conditions so the trading partners can get back to business as usual.. President Donald Trump implemented 25% tariffs on both names, then, on Thursday announced a one-month reprieve for some goods. It's like "dealing with an angry partner and you don’t know what they're mad about," a Mexican official told Reuters. "It's not clear what they want."  On Thursday, Trudeau said Canada will be in a trade war with the United States for "the foreseeable future." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shot back that Trudeau was "a numbskull." "We won't get through this, another psychodrama every 30 days," Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told business leaders in Toronto. "The problem we've had is it's not clear what the American president wants." Reuters Reuters 

Treasury's Bessent vows more tariffs and 'maximum sanctions.'  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Wall Street executives Thursday that President Donald Trump has launched an "aggressive campaign to rebalance the international economic system" with tariffs on imports and  sanctions on adversaries like Iran.  "Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream," Bessent told the Economic Club of New York. He dismissed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a "numbskull" for trying to retaliate against U.S. tariffs. The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Bessent said the "substantial" revenue from tariffs will help pay for tax cuts for low income earners. He said U.S. sanctions would be used "explicitly and aggressively for immediate maximum impact," and he scoffed at the Biden administration’s sanctions on Russian oil and natural gas as "egregiously weak." "We are going to shut down Iran's oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities," Bessent said. Reuters Barron’s 

Analysis: Are Trump’s policies capricious by design? Some think so. President Donald Trump has flipped the new world order in just six weeks.  Now France is expressing doubts that the U.S. is a reliable ally against Russia and is discussing using France’s nuclear arsenal if Russia attacks. Germany is militarizing, and its neighbors are glad. Russia is delighted at the news out of Washington. Trump has promised “reciprocal” tariffs on all American trading partners, starting April 2. He mocked Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor” Trudeau, again pressing his case that Canada should become the 51st state. “The United States has launched a trade war against Canada – its closest partner and ally, its closest friend,” Trudeau retorted, speaking to reporters in Ottawa this week. “At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin: a lying, murderous dictator.  Make that make sense.” The New York Times’ David Sanger wrote that Trump’s moves have a certain logic: keeping everyone off-balance, and signalling that Trump and Trump alone is the Decider, so the world’s political and corporate leaders must plead their cases with him personally. “Most everyone involved was confused, which may well have been the point,” Sanger wrote. “...If, in a usual presidency, tariffs are debated by layers of experts and aides, their potential impact weighed with care, in the Trump White House the determinations are part whim, part weave, part pique.”  U.S. News & World Report New York Times 

Intelligence community fires new intelligence officers. The CIA has dismissed an unknown number of “probationary” intelligence officers hired in the last two years. Some of them have long experience but were put in the probationary category because of assignments within the intelligence community. The Pentagon is expected to fire up to 5,400 probationary employees.  Some intelligence community new hires who have been let go are nuclear engineers and analysts fluent in Chinese, with skill sets that are badly needed. In 2023, the National Security Agency announced it needed to hire 3,000 people, to fill gaps created during the pandemic. Many of those hires are now in the two-year probationary status and vulnerable to firing. The move is part of the wider Trump administration effort to slim down the federal workforce. Experts warn that large-scale firings may impact the intelligence community’s capabilities and morale.  Reuters New York Times Washington Post   

GSA puts a secret CIA facility on the block.  Among the federal properties the General Services Administration plans to sell is a federal complex in Springfield, Virginia, which houses a secretive Central Intelligence Agency facility, WIRED magazine reported.  The Parr-Franconia Warehouse Complex, or the GSA Warehouse, at 6810 Loisdale Road in Springfield, dates back to the early 1950s.  A vast warehouse long used as a government supply depot is the most prominent building.  However, the complex also contains a U-shaped building with alleged ties to the CIA.  Wired reported that the CIA’s presence was first reported in 2012 by the Washington Business Journal, which called it “perhaps the worst-kept secret in Springfield.” WIRED

Security requirements relaxed for workers on new Air Force One planes. The Trump administration has lowered security requirements for Boeing staffers building new Air Force One planes. President Donald Trump wants the planes completed, so his administration is allowing mechanics and others working on less sensitive areas to skip qualifying for a special high-level security clearance. New York Times 

State Department prepares to shutter diplomatic missions, shed local aides. State Department officials have drafted plans to close about a dozen U.S. consulates by summer and may terminate many more missions. Many local citizens who work for State’s overseas missions are expected to be laid off.  The moves come as China has established more global diplomatic posts than the U.S.  New York Times Reuters

Panama port deal gives U.S. a foothold in global ports, rivaling China. An investment group led by Wall Street fund manager BlackRock this week made a $22.8 billion agreement to buy Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings’s majority ownership of 45 port operations in over 20 countries. Key properties sit at either end of the Panama Canal and have inspired President Donald Trump’s complaints that China controls the canal.    BlackRock’s investment plays out a long-held view in some quarters in Washington that the U.S. should compete against China using private capital.  Wall Street Journal

Trump tariffs would hurt Boeing more than European rival Airbus. Donald Trump’s tariff wars threaten Boeing with losing out to its rival Airbus. Boeing will have a harder time passing on any price increases to buyers, compared to Airbus.  As well, the additional costs could cost Boeing sales in the fast-growing Chinese market. Airbus enjoys some protection from tariffs because it has facilities in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida. Boeing, by contrast, has no manufacturing facilities in the EU.  Over the last week, Boeing's share price has dropped by 6.5 percent, while Airbus' has risen by 3 percent.  Politico EU  

EUROPE

Trump: If NATO members don't pay, U.S. won't defend them. President Donald Trump questioned NATO’s commitment to defending the U.S. on Thursday, despite the alliance invoking Article 5 after 9/11. “Do you think they’re going to come and protect us? They’re supposed to. I’m not so sure,” he said in the Oval Office on Thursday. Trump reiterated his demand that allies meet defense spending targets, stating, “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them.” He also linked NATO to trade disputes, arguing, “Until I came along, we were paying close to 100% of NATO… and they’re screwing us on trade.” French President Emmanuel Macron countered, invoking France’s role in Afghanistan and historic U.S.-French ties: “We are loyal and faithful allies… I think we’re entitled to expect the same.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sought to reassure allies, saying the transatlantic partnership remains NATO’s “bedrock,” even as European leaders pledged increased defense spending. Reuters Time The Guardian Associated Press 

EU leaders agree on defense surge. European leaders have agreed to increase defense spending, backing measures to loosen EU fiscal rules to accommodate greater military investment. Germany led the push, proposing a long-term reform of the bloc’s stability and growth pact, alongside a €150 billion loan fund to support defense production. The EU also endorsed temporarily suspending restrictions on military budgets, marking a shift from fiscal conservatism. French President Emmanuel Macron called for Europe to develop autonomous defense capabilities, while Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized the need to win the “arms race.” Germany’s next government has pledged to remove borrowing limits for defense, while Norway announced a significant increase in its military budget. The move comes amid concerns about Europe’s ability to protect itself following President Donald Trump’s decision to scale back U.S. security commitments. Leaders are now exploring long-term mechanisms to sustain increased military spending without undermining fiscal stability. Reuters Bloomberg 

Analysis: Europe’s Defenses Risk Faltering Within Weeks Without U.S. Support. European defense officials warn that, without U.S. support, the continent’s defenses could falter within weeks. Ammunition stockpiles may run out in days, and Europe lacks sufficient air defenses, intelligence capabilities, and rapid deployment capacity. Many NATO members downsized their militaries after the Cold War, leaving shortages of combat personnel and senior officers. Logistics are also a weakness—rail systems in the Baltics are incompatible with European networks, and aging infrastructure could hinder troop movements. Europe relies on the U.S. for advanced surveillance, strategic command, and weapons systems, gaps that could take years to address. Bloomberg

Trump’s Embrace of Putin Has Germany Thinking of Nuclear Weapons. Germany is reconsidering its nuclear security as President Donald Trump’s pro-Russia stance shakes confidence in U.S. protection. Friedrich Merz, likely Germany’s next chancellor, suggested expanding French and British nuclear deterrents to cover Europe. Asked if Germany should pursue its own arsenal, Merz didn’t rule it out, saying “there is no need for this today.” French President Emmanuel Macron is open to discussions, though concerns remain about European nuclear capabilities without U.S. backing. Germany’s options include deeper reliance on European allies or developing its own deterrent, but legal and technical barriers make a national program unlikely. The debate underscores Europe’s uncertainty as Trump signals a shift away from traditional U.S. security guarantees. Wall Street Journal

Nuclear Watchdog Warns Trump May Spark New Atomic Arms Race. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warns that the global nuclear order is weakening as more countries reconsider developing their own deterrents. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi highlighted Iran’s growing stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium and noted broader concerns about nuclear proliferation as the U.S. moves away from multilateralism under President Donald Trump. The Non-Proliferation Treaty faces increasing strain, with fears of a "proliferation cascade" if Iran or others go nuclear. Meanwhile, Trump has suggested reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal, raising the possibility of future arms control talks with Russia and China despite his administration's confrontational approach to global security. Bloomberg

As Germany’s defense stocks go ballistic, armsmakers are tooling up.  Germany’s defense industry is booming as firms like Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and Renk expand to meet surging demand. Once sidelined, these companies are now stock market stars, driven by rising military spending and Friedrich Merz’s pledge to exempt defense budgets from fiscal constraints. Struggling industrial firms are being repurposed for arms production, with Rheinmetall and KNDS taking over former car and train factories to manufacture tanks and ammunition. Defense firms aim to double or triple revenues within years, positioning themselves as Europe’s military backbone amid economic stagnation and U.S. trade threats under President Donald Trump. The Economist

Germany’s Merz has 2 weeks to deliver historic spending revolution. Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is pushing a radical fiscal shift to boost defense and infrastructure spending amid declining trust in U.S. security commitments. His plan includes exempting military spending above 1% of GDP from budget constraints and creating a €500 billion infrastructure fund. However, Merz faces a tight March 25 deadline to secure a two-thirds Bundestag majority before opposition parties can block the deal. The Greens demand additional climate funding, while critics question the legality of passing the package before the new parliament convenes. It would mark one of Germany’s most significant postwar economic policy shifts if successful. Politico EU

Analysis: ​​The EU is doing exactly what Trump wants. He still doesn’t care. President Donald Trump has long harbored disdain for the European Union, viewing it as a burden rather than a partner, and his second term continues this pattern. Despite the EU committing to massive defense investments and urgent aid for Ukraine—actions Trump has demanded for years—he remains indifferent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently snubbed EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, reinforcing Washington’s lack of interest in European concerns. While Trump engages with Russia, Ukraine and Saudi Arabia on peace talks, the EU has been excluded, underscoring its diminished influence. European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, now lead independent military initiatives, highlighting Trump’s preference for bilateral deals over multilateral cooperation. His history of hostility toward the EU and his transactional foreign policy suggest that even as Europe reconfigures its defense posture, Trump remains unwilling to acknowledge its role in global security. Politico EU

Analysis: Trump Wants Europe to Defend Itself. Here’s What It Would Take.  Replacing the U.S. role in NATO would require Europe to increase defense spending, expand its military forces, and develop advanced capabilities like air defense and intelligence. Some leaders, like Germany’s Friedrich Merz, propose major investments, but European nations still fall short of the spending needed. Personnel shortages remain a challenge, as conscription is rare, and modern military jobs require specialized training. Even with more funding, building up forces and production capacity would take a decade. A sudden U.S. withdrawal would weaken deterrence against Russia, making coordinated efforts essential. New York Times

Macron hits back at Russian fury, says Kremlin feels exposed. French President Emmanuel Macron responded to Russian criticism on Thursday after the Kremlin denounced his nuclear deterrence remarks. “If he's reacting like that, it's because he knows what I said is true,” Macron said at an EU summit. Rejecting Russian comparisons to Napoleon, he stated, “The only imperialistic power I see in Europe right now is Russia.” He accused Moscow of being exposed in its long-term war ambitions. Macron defended France’s NATO commitment, recalling European support for the U.S. in Afghanistan. He also announced plans for European nuclear deterrence talks, inviting EU military chiefs to Paris next week. Reuters

Inuit pride stirs independence mood in Greenland election. Greenland’s independence debate has intensified as President Donald Trump renews his interest in acquiring the island, citing its strategic Arctic position amid rising Russian and Chinese activity. While many Greenlanders support self-determination, concerns remain that rushing independence could increase U.S. influence. A poll found 85% of Greenlanders oppose integration with the U.S., with nearly half seeing Trump’s interest as a threat. Qupanuk Olsen, a pro-independence candidate, sees U.S. interest as leverage in negotiations with Denmark, while the ruling Inuit Ataqatigiit party favors a gradual approach. Historical grievances over Danish colonial policies and economic exploitation, including a former cryolite mine, have fueled frustrations. Meanwhile, Greenland’s vast rare earth reserves and Arctic location make it a focal point in global power struggles. Trump recently reaffirmed his desire to bring Greenland into the U.S., offering economic promises while refusing to rule out military options to secure control over the territory. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump’s Middle East envoy threatens potential U.S.-Israel action against Hamas if hostages aren’t freed. Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Trump’s Middle East envoy, warned on Thursday that Washington might take joint military action with Israel against Hamas if the group does not release all hostages from Gaza. Trump reinforced this stance, asserting that if Hamas does not comply, “it is OVER for you.” The ultimatum suggests two possible outcomes: if Hamas frees the hostages, the U.S. will work to end the war; if not, Trump will support Israel resuming its devastating military offensive. Witkoff stressed the importance of securing the release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander and other Americans held in Gaza, including the remains of slain captives. The U.S. administration has engaged in direct negotiations with Hamas for the first time since the war began, signaling a shift in approach. However, Trump's hardline stance increases the likelihood of renewed conflict. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which has held since January, appears tenuous, with Israel blocking humanitarian aid after Hamas rejected an extension without a full troop withdrawal. Despite threats of military action, Witkoff insisted that the administration’s ultimate goal remains achieving peace in the region. Wall Street Journal

Hamas says Trump's aggressive rhetoric pushing Israel to ‘evade’ Gaza ceasefire deal. Hamas has accused U.S. President Donald Trump of supporting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to undermine the fragile Gaza ceasefire and intensify the blockade on humanitarian supplies to the devastated enclave. This follows Trump’s social media ultimatum demanding that Hamas release all hostages or face severe consequences. Human rights groups condemned Trump’s comments addressing the "people of Gaza" and threatening "you are DEAD" as promoting collective punishment, which is illegal under international law. Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua asserted that the president’s “repeated threats against our people represent support to Netanyahu to evade the agreement and tighten the siege and starvation against our people." Trump’s combative remarks coincided with reports that a U.S. envoy held direct talks with Hamas, breaking from Washington’s long-standing policy of non-engagement with the group. Hamas insists that Israel must adhere to the phased ceasefire agreement, which includes hostage releases in exchange for negotiations to end the war. However, Israel has blocked vital aid to Gaza, demanding hostages be freed without further negotiations. Hamas warned that escalating military action would endanger hostages still held in Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump reaffirmed his support for Israel’s military efforts and threatened further action if hostages remain captive. Mediators from Egypt and Qatar are working to advance the ceasefire’s second phase, which Hamas supports, while Israel seeks to prolong the truce without committing to ending the war. The situation remains brittle, with diplomatic efforts ongoing and the risk of renewed conflict increasing. Reuters CNN 

Jordan evacuates Gaza’s wounded children amid fears of U.S.-backed Palestinian displacement. Jordan has begun evacuating wounded Palestinian children from Gaza for medical treatment as part of a broader effort to counter U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring countries. The initiative, led by King Abdullah II, aims to provide humanitarian aid while also dissuading the U.S. from supporting mass population transfers, which Jordan considers a red line. The medical evacuation follows a Feb. 11 meeting between King Abdullah and Trump, where Jordan committed to treating 2,000 injured children. Arab leaders also met in Egypt on March 4 to propose a $53 billion reconstruction plan for Gaza and a transitional government to replace Hamas. However, the Trump administration rejected this proposal and cut significant USAID funding to the region. Jordan fears that any forced Palestinian displacement could destabilize the country, where over half the population is of Palestinian descent, and undermine the two-state solution. Analysts suggest that while Trump’s plan is unlikely to be implemented, Jordan must strengthen regional alliances to prevent Washington from using Gaza as a precedent for potential displacement from the West Bank. With Israeli military actions intensifying in the occupied West Bank, Jordan remains on high alert over the broader implications of American and Israeli policies. Politico EU

Switzerland cancels meeting on protecting civilians in Palestinian areas due to ‘profound differences.’ Switzerland has canceled a planned diplomatic meeting on protecting civilians in Palestinian territories due to “profound differences” among participating countries. The conference, scheduled for Friday in Geneva, was meant to discuss applying the Geneva Conventions in the region but failed to reach a consensus on a final declaration. Although the meeting would not have resulted in binding decisions, it aimed to reaffirm international law commitments. The Israeli Foreign Ministry celebrated the cancellation and said it had worked “intensively… under the radar” to prevent the conference, over concerns that it would present the Jewish state in a negative light. The ministry asserted that the meeting would have slandered the country, and made “anti-Israel resolutions that Israel’s enemies would have used in international forums.” Additionally, both The Palestinian Authority and The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation had stated that they would skip the event. Associated Press Times of Israel 

The secret history of Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has emerged as Syria’s new leader after his forces took Damascus in December 2024. Once a key figure in al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, he later rebranded his group as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), distancing it from global jihadism. His rise from insurgency to power has been marked by pragmatism, balancing Islamist hardliners with international diplomacy. While he has sought to moderate his image, concerns persist over his centralized leadership, past brutality, and reluctance to embrace democracy. His rule now faces the challenge of legitimacy and governance in a fractured Syria. Financial Times

Russia pursuing deal to maintain influence, military bases in Syria. Russia, recovering quickly from the shock of President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, is seeking to expand its economic and military presence in Syria, despite having previously supported the Assad regime during years of brutal, civil war. With Syria’s new rulers, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), struggling to secure financial backing from U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Moscow sees an opportunity to solidify its influence. Russia has already delivered $23 million worth of Syrian currency to Damascus, helping to stabilize Damascus’ struggling economy when most other nations hesitated due to fear of sanctions. Talks between Russia and the new Syrian government have also covered military bases, economic investments in gas fields and ports, and even a request for the extradition of Assad, which Moscow rejected. While the U.S. remains uncertain about its approach to Syria, the Kremlin is actively negotiating to retain control over its Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base, key strategic assets in the Mediterranean. Syria’s new leadership, eager to counterbalance Turkey and Iran, is open to negotiations with Moscow despite Russia’s past military actions in the country. Damascus is also keen to secure the repatriation of funds that were transferred by Assad’s regime to Russia. The ongoing discussions mark a shift in Russia-Syria relations, with Moscow leveraging the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy to secure long-term economic and military interests in the region. Wall Street Journal

At least 13 police officers killed by Assad loyalists in ambush on Syrian forces. At least 13 security personnel were killed, and many others wounded, after armed assailants ambushed a Syrian police patrol in the coastal town of Jableh on Thursday. The attack comes amid rising tensions between former President Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite sect and Islamist groups following Assad’s fall in December. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported at least 16 security members dead, along with 28 pro-Assad loyalists and three civilians. The attackers were identified as Alawite gunmen, and pro-Assad forces have since taken control of his hometown, Qardaha. Syrian authorities responded by imposing a curfew in Tartus and deploying military reinforcements, including helicopter gunships and fighters loyal to former General Suheil al-Hassan. Despite official statements opposing sectarian retaliation, tensions remain high, with reports of Sunni militant attacks on Alawites. The state news agency also announced the arrest of former intelligence official Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Hweiji, linked to the 1977 assassination of Lebanese Druze leader Kamal Joumblatt. Associated Press The Guardian  

U.S. weighs plan to disrupt Iran's oil exports by stopping vessels at sea. The Trump administration is reportedly mulling a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea as part of its renewed "maximum pressure" campaign to cut off Iran's oil exports and isolate it economically. The proposed inspections, to be potentially conducted under the Proliferation Security Initiative, aim to delay Iranian crude shipments and discourage companies from engaging in oil trade with Tehran. Trump has already imposed new sanctions on the country, targeting its "shadow fleet" of uninsured oil tankers. The administration is now exploring ways to enlist allied nations to conduct ship inspections at key chokepoints like the Malacca Strait, which could disrupt Iran's supply chains and revenue streams. One source suggested that it is not necessary to “sink ships or arrest people to have that chilling effect that this is just not worth the risk.” However, previous U.S. attempts to seize Iranian oil have led to retaliation, including the regime seizing foreign ships. Energy analysts suggest that with oil prices currently low, Trump has more flexibility to enforce stricter sanctions without significantly disrupting global markets. Still, over time, Iran and its buyers—primarily China—are likely to develop workarounds. Washington is also pressuring Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports to offset any Iranian supply losses. Despite sanctions, Iran generated over $50 billion in oil revenue in 2023, primarily through sales to China. Meanwhile, European nations have discussed inspecting Russian oil shipments but have yet to take similar actions against Iranian oil. Reuters 

Turkey claims military operations killed 26 PKK militants, despite calls for peace. The Turkish defense ministry on Thursday announced that security forces have killed 26 Kurdish militants in military operations in Iraq and Syria over the past week, despite the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declaring a ceasefire and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, calling for the group to disband. The ministry stated that military operations against the PKK would continue until all militants are eliminated, and “not a single terrorist remains.” The PKK's ceasefire follows Ocalan’s February 27 call for the group to disband, an initiative linked to an October peace effort led by Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli. The PKK has requested Ocalan’s release to oversee the process. However, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group in Syria, clarified that Ocalan’s call does not apply to them. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that military action will persist if Kurdish groups do not comply. The conflict, which began in 1984, has caused tens of thousands of deaths, and this ceasefire marks the first significant step toward peace since negotiations collapsed in 2015. The PKK remains designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies. Associated Press Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

As Cold War fears rise, China is secretly concerned that Trump will win on trade. Experts, and sources close to Beijing, believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping is concerned that the U.S.-China rivalry under President Donald Trump could mirror the Cold War isolation of the Soviet Union. Despite Trump's own diplomatic struggles, Beijing faces economic challenges and fears trade restrictions and sanctions that could cut it off from global markets. Trump, emboldened by his re-election, is prioritizing countering China by reshaping global trade, shifting ties with traditional allies, and pressuring Beijing through tariffs and investment restrictions. Trump is also seeking to weaken China's relationship with Russia, seeing Moscow as a potential counterbalance to a powerful Beijing. His administration has imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, citing fentanyl concerns, and is working to limit Chinese access to critical industries such as shipbuilding and high-tech sectors. Meanwhile, Beijing has responded with economic retaliations and diplomatic outreach, particularly to Europe and the Global South. Despite tensions, Trump maintains that a new trade deal with China is possible, though his administration is taking a hardline stance, demanding structural economic reforms Beijing is unlikely to accept. Xi, for his part, aims to engage Washington in broader negotiations rather than making piecemeal concessions. The ongoing economic and geopolitical confrontation signals a deepening U.S.-China feud that will likely define Trump's second term, setting the stage for a prolonged and intense superpower rivalry. Wall Street Journal

China vows to "resolutely counter" U.S. actions on tariffs, says 'major powers should not bully the weak.’ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has stated that his country will “resolutely counter” U.S. pressure on tariffs and fentanyl-related issues, criticizing the Trump administration’s aggressive and unpredictable approach to foreign policy without directly naming it. Speaking at a press conference on Friday, he stressed that major powers should not "bully the weak" and positioned China as a stable global force amid confusion and geopolitical shifts. One expert said that Wang’s remarks, and his lack of direct criticism of Trump, suggest Beijing aims to maintain room for potential trade negotiations with Washington. The U.S. recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports over fentanyl concerns, prompting Wang to reject unilateral pressure and highlight China’s cooperation on the issue. He also warned that the U.S. cannot both pressure China and expect good relations, saying Washington "should not repay kindness with grievances, let alone impose tariffs without reason.” On Ukraine, Wang stated China seeks a “fair and lasting” peace but did not distance Beijing from its strategic partner, Russia. He reaffirmed China-Russia ties as stable despite global turbulence, particularly as Trump adopts a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow. China also signaled its intent to strengthen ties with Europe and the Global South, portraying itself as a defender of multilateralism. Wang suggested that as the Trump administration withdraws from global institutions, Beijing seeks to fill the resulting strategic vacuum and enhance its influence in international governance. “The world will regress to the law of the jungle” and “small and weak countries will bear the brunt," he stated, if every nation seeks to stress “its own national priorities and believe in strength and status.” Reuters CNN 

Taiwan considers travel warnings amid China’s crackdown on independence supporters. Taipei is considering issuing travel warnings for countries with strong ties to China, such as Laos and Cambodia, due to concerns that Taiwanese citizens could be targeted under Beijing’s campaign against Taiwan independence activists. According to a senior Taiwanese official and an internal government memo, China has instructed its security units to enforce punitive measures against pro-independence figures in countries friendly to Beijing. China’s guidelines, issued last year, threaten harsh punishments, including the death penalty, for so-called “diehard” Taiwan independence supporters. Taiwan fears that its citizens traveling to certain countries may face questioning or intimidation by local authorities acting under Chinese influence. Beijing has reportedly asked its embassies and overseas police stations in trusted nations to implement these measures, though Taiwan has noted that some Southeast Asian countries have refused to cooperate. Reuters 

Trump expresses displeasure with Japan security treaty. U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, arguing that while the U.S. is obligated to defend Japan, Tokyo does not offer reciprocal security guarantees. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, he also pointed out Japan's economic benefits from its trade relationship with the U.S. His remarks raised concerns in the Asian power that he may push for a revised security or trade deal. Japanese officials pushed back against Trump's characterization on Friday. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that his country provides military bases for the U.S. and contributes to the alliance, while government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi reaffirmed confidence in U.S. security commitments. The treaty, first signed in 1951 and revised in 1960, allows American military forces to be stationed in Japan in exchange for U.S. defense support. Today, there are around 60,000 military members currently stationed in Japan. The pact remains vital in countering security threats from China and North Korea. Japan has historically maintained a pacifist stance, but reforms in the past decade have allowed it to support allies in certain situations. Japan also contributes financially to hosting U.S. troops, though Trump previously pressured Tokyo to increase its payments. Bloomberg

South Korean court cancels arrest warrant for President Yoon, orders his release. A South Korean court canceled the arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Friday, and he was released from custody shortly afterwards. The Seoul Central District Court cited procedural issues in the indictment process and concerns about the legality of the investigation. Yoon was the first sitting president to be arrested on criminal charges following a standoff between his guards and authorities. He has justified his December 3 martial law bid as necessary to combat "anti-state" elements. Yoon was later impeached for allegedly violating his constitutional duties, and the Constitutional Court is expected to rule on his impeachment soon. Yonhap News Agency Reuters CNN The Independent Deutsche Welle Associated Press 

New Zealand’s top spy touts Five Eyes, warns of China’s mounting influence in the Pacific. New Zealand’s top intelligence official, Andrew Hampton, has warned of security risks posed by China’s growing influence in the Pacific, particularly in light of the Cook Islands’ accord strengthening ties with Beijing. Speaking at the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs on Thursday, Hampton highlighted concerns over China’s strategy of linking economic and security cooperation, which he said could lead to foreign interference and espionage risks. China has been expanding its influence in the Pacific through economic agreements, including a recent deal with the Cook Islands covering education, infrastructure, fisheries, and seabed mining. Given the Cook Islands' constitutional ties to Wellington, this development has raised alarms in New Zealand. Hampton revealed that he had previously shared classified intelligence on these risks with Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown but will now intensify scrutiny of the nation’s growing relationship with China. He also reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, which includes the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia, despite concerns over the Trump administration's shift in relations with Russia. Hampton emphasized that Five Eyes intelligence has been crucial in ensuring New Zealand’s security. Reuters 

AFRICA

Sudan accuses United Arab Emirates of being complicit in genocide with ICJ case. Sudan has launched a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing it of violating the Genocide Convention by arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan claims the UAE’s support enabled ethnic-based attacks against the non-Arab Masalit tribe in West Darfur in 2023, which the U.S. classified as genocide in January. The UAE has denied the allegations and dismissed the case as baseless and politically motivated. The Sudanese government and international experts have previously accused Abu Dhabi of supporting the RSF in Sudan’s ongoing civil war, which has led to widespread violence, displacement, mass killings, sexual assault, and other human rights abuses. Sudan is requesting emergency measures from the ICJ to prevent further genocidal acts. While a hearing on these measures is expected within weeks, a final ruling on the genocide claim could take years. Meanwhile, the RSF and allied political groups are attempting to establish a parallel government, a move rejected by regional powers including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Reuters BBC New York Times Associated Press Al Jazeera VOA   

With political chaos on the horizon, a former Congolese president discusses the future amid rebel advance. Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila has begun to engage in talks with opposition politicians and civil society members about the country's political future amid the worsening conflict with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. This move poses a potential challenge to current President Felix Tshisekedi, who has been castigated for his handling of the crisis, and criticized for trying to retain power rather than resolve pressing issues. Kabila and Tshisekedi were once political allies but became rivals after Tshisekedi accused his predecessor of obstructing reforms. Their tensions escalated recently when Tshisekedi alleged that Kabila had backed the M23 insurgency. Kabila responded with a public op-ed accusing Tshisekedi of violating the constitution and leading the country toward civil war. Sources say that while Kabila and his allies have discussed a potential political transition, no concrete plans have emerged. Some opposition leaders have openly criticized Tshisekedi, suggesting instability in his leadership, and one source familiar with Kabila said the message was that "the Tshisekedi regime is soon over.” Meanwhile, the president has proposed a unity government, though it has yet to materialize. Tshisekedi’s government remains wary of Kabila’s influence, recently blocking a Kabila-owned boat on suspicions of arms smuggling. The ex-president’s allies dismissed the allegations. The situation reflects growing political uncertainty in Congo as internal power struggles intersect with escalating violence in the east, further destabilizing the country. Reuters 

Conditions growing dire at Burundi displacement camps as 63,000 flee Congo violence. Burundi is struggling to accommodate a massive influx of refugees fleeing escalating violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) warned on Friday. Around 63,000 people have entered Burundi, with approximately 45,000 sheltering in an overcrowded open-air stadium in Rugombo, near the Congolese border. UNHCR described the conditions as "absolutely dire," with “extremely harsh” conditions, severe overcrowding and a lack of adequate shelter. The crisis marks Burundi’s largest refugee influx in decades, driven by ongoing clashes between the M23 rebel group and the Congolese army. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump’s Golden Age Begins With a Brutal Trade War. President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada and Mexico has rattled markets and strained diplomatic ties. Despite public confidence rising post-election, his steep tariffs—justified as measures against illegal immigration and drug trafficking—are triggering stagflation, sinking stock markets, and weakening the dollar. Trump’s latest moves effectively dismantle the North American trade pact he once championed, pushing Canada and Mexico toward recession while fueling inflation and economic uncertainty in the U.S. Despite short-term gains for U.S. steelmakers, consumer prices are expected to rise sharply, with Goldman Sachs estimating tariffs will cost consumers $260 billion annually. Trump’s rhetoric suggests an intent to shift industrial production from Mexico and Canada to the U.S., while in Canada, nationalist backlash is growing over his suggestion of annexation. Markets remain volatile, with economists downgrading U.S. growth forecasts. Trump’s allies insist on long-term benefits, but fears of economic instability and declining global confidence in the U.S. are mounting. Wall Street Journal Foreign Policy

Nasdaq confirms correction as tariff worries weigh. The Nasdaq confirmed a correction after falling 10.4% from its December peak, as Wall Street grapples with uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. President Donald Trump announced a one-month tariff exemption for Canada and Mexico under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, following earlier auto-sector exemptions. Market volatility surged, with the Dow dropping 0.99%, the S&P 500 losing 1.78%, and the Nasdaq tumbling 2.61%. Semiconductor stocks suffered, with Marvell plunging nearly 20%. Investors are wary of potential inflation from tariffs and mixed economic data, including declining weekly jobless claims but slowing growth indicators. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in June. Reuters

Investors have poured most money into Europe since February 2022. Investors poured $4.1 billion into European equities in the week to Wednesday, the largest inflow since February 2022, according to Bank of America. Over the past four weeks, inflows hit $12 billion, the highest since August 2015. U.S. equities saw $8.5 billion in inflows, while emerging markets attracted $2.4 billion. Technology funds gained $2.6 billion, marking their first inflow in five weeks. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett noted the shift, dubbing U.S. tech giants the “Lagnificent 7” as the Nasdaq entered correction territory. Bond funds drew $12 billion, but U.S. Treasuries saw their largest outflow in 11 weeks at $1.2 billion. Reuters

Taiwan says chipmaker’s move to invest $100 billion in the U.S. wasn’t because of U.S. pressure. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) CEO C.C. Wei denied that U.S. pressure influenced the chipmaker’s decision to invest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing. TSMC announced plans for three new chip plants and two packaging facilities in Arizona, citing growing customer demand. The move raised concerns in Taiwan over the potential loss of advanced manufacturing capabilities. Wei insisted the expansion would not affect Taiwan’s operations, where TSMC is developing 1.0 nanometer chips. Meanwhile, U.S. support for Taiwan appears uncertain under President Donald Trump, who has urged Taiwan to increase defense spending amid rising tensions with China. Associated Press 

Alibaba launches DeepSeek rival, sending stock surging.  Alibaba unveiled its new AI reasoning model, QwQ-32B, claiming it surpasses OpenAI’s cost-efficient model and rivals DeepSeek-R1. The announcement sent Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed shares up 8% and lifted the Hang Seng’s China Enterprises Index. The model reportedly performs strongly in mathematics, coding, and general reasoning with fewer parameters than DeepSeek’s R1. Over three years, Alibaba has pledged $52.4 billion in AI and cloud computing. The move aligns with China’s push for AI leadership as competition with the U.S. intensifies. CNN CNBC 

Rights advocates concerned by reported U.S. plan to use AI to revoke student visas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has launched "Catch and Revoke," an AI-driven initiative to cancel visas of foreign nationals deemed supportive of Hamas or other designated terror groups. The program involves AI-assisted reviews of student visa holders' social media, news reports, and arrest records. Critics, including rights advocates, warn this threatens free speech and could lead to wrongful revocations. The initiative aligns with President Donald Trump’s executive orders targeting perceived antisemitic activities. While supporters argue it enhances national security, opponents liken it to past government surveillance programs that infringed on civil liberties. The first visa revocation has already occurred. Axios The Guardian Reuters 

Creator of AI Gaza video shared by Trump says it was political satire. Filmmaker Solo Avital created an AI-generated satire video depicting Donald Trump’s vision for Gaza as a luxury resort, complete with Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu sipping cocktails and Elon Musk tearing flatbread. Initially removed from social media, Trump later shared it on Truth Social, sparking controversy. Avital said the video highlights AI’s power to create convincing fake content and how easily misinformation spreads. While he supports AI’s creative potential, experts warn of its dangers, including deepfakes and propaganda. The incident underscores concerns over AI’s lack of control and its role in shaping political narratives. BBC The Guardian 

Albania shuts down TikTok for a year amid concerns over violence among children. Albania has decided to ban TikTok for 12 months, citing concerns over violence and bullying among children. The move follows a fatal stabbing linked to a dispute that began on the platform. Education Minister Ogerta Manastirliu said officials are working with TikTok on safety measures like parental controls and age verification. Prime Minister Edi Rama stated that talks with TikTok are ongoing. The opposition condemned the ban as censorship, claiming it suppresses free expression before May’s elections. TikTok denied responsibility. Neighboring countries have also raised concerns over TikTok’s influence. Associated Press Barron's CNN 

China-Linked Silk Typhoon Expands Cyber Attacks to IT Supply Chains for Initial Access. Chinese state-backed hacking group Silk Typhoon has shifted its tactics to target IT supply chains, exploiting remote management tools and cloud services to gain access to corporate networks. Microsoft warns the group is using stolen API keys and credentials to infiltrate government, defense, healthcare, and energy sectors. Silk Typhoon can move laterally across cloud environments by compromising IT providers, exfiltrating data while minimizing detection. The hackers continue leveraging zero-day vulnerabilities, recently exploiting flaws in Ivanti Pulse Connect VPN and Palo Alto Networks firewalls. Microsoft advises immediate patching, network segmentation, and multi-factor authentication to mitigate the threat. The Hacker News Bleeping Computer 

Russian crypto exchange Garantex’s website taken down in law enforcement operation. The U.S. Secret Service, alongside international law enforcement agencies, seized the website of Russian cryptocurrency exchange Garantex on Thursday, targeting its role in laundering illicit funds. The U.S. sanctioned the exchange in 2022 for assisting over $100 million in transactions linked to cybercriminals, including Russian ransomware groups. The European Union added Garantex to its sanctions list last month for aiding Russian banks in bypassing restrictions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. Following the seizure, stablecoin issuer Tether blocked $28 million in Garantex wallets, prompting the exchange to suspend operations. “Tether has entered the war against the Russian crypto market,” Garantex declared on Telegram, insisting it would “not give up.” While Western authorities aim to curb Russia’s use of cryptocurrency for sanctions evasion, Garantex had allowed Russians to convert rubles into crypto, bypassing financial restrictions. The Record TechCrunch Reuters 

CISA, FBI warn of BianLian mail scam targeting executives with $500k ransom note. The FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have warned about a scam where fraudsters impersonate the BianLian ransomware gang to extort U.S. executives. Scammers are mailing ransom letters, falsely claiming to have stolen sensitive corporate data and demanding payments of $250,000 to $500,000 in Bitcoin. Postmarked from Boston, the letters include QR codes linked to Bitcoin wallets but lack typical ransomware negotiation details. Cybersecurity firms found no evidence of breaches, identifying the scheme as a fear-based scam. Recipients are urged to report the letters, as experts confirm they do not originate from the BianLian hacking group. The Record BleepingComputer 

SpaceX’s Starship explodes in second failure for Musk’s Mars program. SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft exploded mid-flight on Thursday during its eighth test launch, marking its second failure this year. The uncrewed vehicle lifted off from Texas at 6:30 p.m. ET, but after booster separation, it lost multiple engines and began tumbling before communication was lost. Debris fell over Florida and the Caribbean, temporarily disrupting air traffic. The Federal Aviation Administration is requiring a mishap investigation before further launches. SpaceX stated that Starship flew within a designated launch corridor, minimizing environmental impact. This failure follows Starship’s January explosion, raising concerns over safety and regulatory oversight for experimental flights over populated areas. Musk aims to build a rocket capable of sending bigger batches of satellites to space and humans to the moon and Mars. CNN BBC Reuters The Guardian  

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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