Open Source Report for Friday, February 28, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

Afternoon update 

Trump-Zelensky Meeting Implodes, Threatening Peace Talks

Mexico sends drug lord Caro Quintero and 28 other alleged traffickers and killers  to the U.S.

Analysis: Allies Assess What Intelligence They Can Still Share With Trump

China says it opposes Trump’s latest tariff threat, vows retaliation

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

A Damaged U.S.-Europe Relationship – and What it Means for Ukraine. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Max Boot, a Washington Post columnist, and American Enterprise Institute Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Kori Schake analyze the Trump administration’s shift away from European allies and Ukraine. Boot sees this as a potential end to the post-World War II transatlantic alliance, while Schake criticizes Trump’s neutrality between Russia and Ukraine, calling it a betrayal of democratic values. Boot notes Europe’s increasing military spending and interest in nuclear deterrence as a response. Both stress that Ukraine depends on U.S. aid, particularly for air defenses, and Schake warns of increased civilian casualties if support ceases. Boot argues Ukraine can sustain itself in the short term but faces major risks without U.S. contributions. Both experts see Trump as transactional, prioritizing deals over alliances, with Schake doubting any agreement could satisfy Vladimir Putin. They conclude that U.S. credibility as a security partner is already damaged, with repercussions extending beyond Europe. The Cipher Brief

Message From Ukraine: Russia is ‘Playing Games’ with the Trump Administration. ​​Ukrainian member of parliament Oleksiy Goncharenko warns that Russia is manipulating the Trump administration to break Ukraine’s ties with the West. As President Volodymyr Zelensky prepares for talks with Donald Trump, Goncharenko stresses Ukraine’s three red lines: independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. He argues that any peace deal must not recognize Russian occupation. While welcoming U.S. business investments, he remains concerned about the absence of security guarantees in negotiations. He urges Trump to see Ukraine not as a burden but as a strategic asset, highlighting its battle-hardened military. If U.S. support weakens, Ukraine will continue fighting but at immense cost. He cautions that abandoning Ukraine would damage America’s global standing, likening it to a prolonged Afghanistan scenario. Goncharenko also warns that Europe must decide whether to be a player or a pawn in geopolitics. He urges unity, stating, “The best way to make America great again is not to make America single again.” The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump Sounds Warmer Tone on Ukraine but Stops Short of Security Guarantees. President Donald Trump struck a more supportive tone on Ukraine during his meetings with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday, but stopped short of promising the security guarantees for Kyiv that European allies want. Starmer raised a plan to send European peacekeepers to Ukraine, seeking a U.S. military “backstop” of air defenses and intelligence support. Trump repeatedly said he would only consider those options after a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, an agreement he expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to honor. “I have confidence, if we make a deal, it’s going to hold,” he said in the Oval Office, adding that his approach would be “trust and verify.” Trump also tempered some of his harshest criticisms of Ukraine, saying he “can’t believe” he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and vowing to help Kyiv reclaim as much seized territory from Russia as possible. Trump is set to meet with Zelensky on Friday. “We’re going to get along really well. I have a lot of respect for him,” Trump said of Zelensky. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Reuters New York Times

Analysis: How Zelensky learned the art of the deal and got to visit Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly adapted to Donald Trump’s transactional approach, turning a hostile stance into a White House invitation. Just days ago, Trump falsely called Zelensky a “dictator” who started the war with Russia, but by Friday, the Ukrainian leader secured a meeting by offering what Trump values most: a deal. Zelensky agreed to a rare earth minerals pact with the U.S., reframing it as a framework for future cooperation rather than a forced concession. Eager to claim victory, Trump declared, “We’re going to be signing an agreement, which will be a very big agreement.” Zelensky, in turn, positioned the deal as leverage for U.S. security guarantees. Trump’s philosophy is clear: “I do deals. My whole life is deals.” By playing into this mindset, Zelensky moved from being dismissed to a full White House welcome. The shift underscores how foreign leaders must navigate Trump’s priorities to maintain U.S. support. CNN

Zelensky will seek security assurances against future Russian aggression. During their Friday meeting in Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will seek security assurances from President Donald Trump against future Russian aggression. Trump has remained noncommittal, suggesting Europe should take the lead. A proposed U.S.-Ukraine economic deal ties reconstruction funding to resource access but leaves security unresolved. Britain and France are discussing a potential European peacekeeping force, though U.S. aerial intelligence and rapid-response support may be necessary. Trump argues U.S. business involvement in Ukraine itself provides security, warning, “Nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there.” Ukraine seeks clarity on military aid and frozen Russian assets. Associated Press

Inside a struggling Ukraine mine, Trump’s mineral deal dreams meet war-torn reality. President Donald Trump’s proposed mineral deal with Ukraine faces harsh realities on the ground, as CNN visited a titanium mine in Irshansk struggling with power shortages and war damage. Trump has claimed the deal could generate $500 billion, but experts doubt Ukraine’s mineral wealth can be easily extracted, especially under Russian attacks. The agreement remains vague, referring to Ukraine’s “natural resource assets” but leaving key details undecided. Trump suggested American personnel could work in Ukraine post-war, saying, “We’re going to have a lot of people over there.” Ukrainian officials acknowledge outdated geological data and high investment costs for extraction. CNN

Ukraine Rattled as U.S. Negotiator Points to Russia-Backed Template for Peace. Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s top negotiator, suggested a Ukraine peace deal could be based on the 2022 Istanbul talks, alarming Kyiv and its allies while bolstering Moscow’s stance. The Istanbul negotiations occurred when Russian forces threatened Kyiv, and Ukraine was under severe pressure. Moscow’s version of the talks included drastic military cuts, a ban on foreign troops and weapons, and a Russian veto on Western security assistance. No deal was signed, and Ukraine abandoned talks after Russian war crimes were exposed in Bucha. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the Istanbul drafts “a Russian ultimatum.” Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned, “Accepting such terms is just an invitation for another war.” Witkoff clarified he did not support a weak Ukraine but saw value in using the Istanbul framework as a starting point. European leaders seek a U.S. “backstop” for a peacekeeping force, but President Donald Trump has not committed beyond saying, “We’re going to make sure everything goes well.” Wall Street Journal

Long Shunned, Pro-Russia Politicians in Ukraine See an Opening. Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine, long sidelined after Russia’s 2022 invasion, are attempting a resurgence, exploiting both Moscow’s push for elections and Donald Trump’s criticism of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Figures like Oleksandr Dubinsky, jailed for treason, and Yuriy Boyko have gained large online audiences by blaming Ukraine’s leaders for the war and promoting a pro-Trump agenda. Russia backs a plan involving a cease-fire, elections, and a peace deal, but Kyiv sees it as a ploy to sow division and buy time for Moscow to regroup. “They aim to create divisions,” warned analyst Oleh Saakyan. Some Trump administration figures, including National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, have criticized Ukraine’s ban on pro-Russian parties, though opposition groups continue to operate. Political analysts believe Moscow’s election push is an attempt to destabilize Ukraine, with exiled pro-Russian figures like Artem Dmytruk accusing Kyiv of prolonging the war for financial gain. Ukraine maintains that wartime elections remain unfeasible. New York Times

Zelensky meets Irish PM on way to Trump visit. On his way to meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stopped in Ireland to meet with Prime Minister Micheál Martin. Zelensky thanked Ireland for supporting Ukraine and sheltering refugees. Martin described their meeting as “warm” and emphasized Europe’s role in any future peace deal. Trump has said Zelensky’s visit to Washington will focus on a rare earth minerals agreement, while Zelensky stressed that its success depends on continued U.S. aid. They also discussed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington. Reuters

Zelensky invited to special EU summit on support for Ukraine. European Union Council President Antonio Costa has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a special EU summit on March 6 to discuss future support for Ukraine. In his invitation to EU leaders, Costa emphasized Europe's responsibility for its security and the need for potential European contributions to Ukraine’s security guarantees. He aims for decisions to strengthen the EU’s ability to address immediate and future security challenges. Reuters

Experts cite legal gaps in Trump's minerals deal with Ukraine. A draft U.S.-Ukraine agreement grants American access to Ukraine’s natural resource revenues through a joint "Reconstruction Investment Fund" but lacks security guarantees. Experts highlight legal gaps, with no binding commitments or dispute mechanisms. Ukraine will contribute 50% of future resource monetization, though key details remain undecided. The deal, expected to be signed Friday, marks a shift from Donald Trump’s earlier $500 billion compensation demand. Trump aims to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese minerals. Future negotiations may clarify financial commitments and require congressional approval. The agreement also acknowledges Ukraine’s European Union aspirations. Reuters

Ukraine's army chief visits eastern front heavily pressured by Russia. Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Thursday he had visited brigades defending the Novopavlivka front in Donetsk, where Russian forces are intensifying assaults to capture three settlements. Ukraine reported 19 combat engagements near Kostyantynopil, Rozdolne, Shevchenko, and Burlatske—areas with lithium and rare earth deposits. The battle coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s interest in securing Ukraine’s critical minerals. Russian troops have advanced within 4.5 kilometers of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as Moscow pursues complete control of Donetsk. While Trump seeks a swift end to the war, Zelensky insists on security guarantees for lasting peace. Reuters

France joining the U.S. in seeking access to Ukraine’s minerals. France has been in talks with Ukraine for months to secure access to critical minerals, joining the U.S. in seeking supply diversification, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said Thursday. While President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. on Friday, Lecornu emphasized France’s independent negotiations, mandated by President Emmanuel Macron. Unlike President Donald Trump, who links the U.S. deal to Ukraine repaying past aid, Lecornu stressed that France isn’t seeking payback but needs raw materials for its defense industry over the next decades. Talks remain in the early stages. Associated Press

Captured North Koreans Describe Fighting for Russia in a War They Didn’t Understand. Two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukraine revealed they were sent to fight for Russia without knowing the war’s true nature. Told they would face South Koreans; they realized only at the front lines in Russia’s Kursk region that they were fighting Ukrainians. North Korean authorities ordered them to avoid capture at all costs, even by suicide. Ukraine says thousands of North Koreans have been killed or wounded. Both prisoners fear returning home, where surrender is treason, and South Korea has offered asylum. Their accounts highlight Pyongyang’s tight control and Russia’s growing reliance on foreign fighters. Wall Street Journal

Russia arrests two church figures over alleged Ukrainian plot to kill priest close to Putin. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested two church figures, Nikita Ivankovich and Denis Popovich, accusing them of plotting to kill Metropolitan Tikhon Shevkunov, a cleric with ties to President Vladimir Putin. The FSB claims the men were recruited by Ukrainian intelligence via Telegram in 2024 and had an improvised explosive device and fake Ukrainian passports. Popovich allegedly monitored Shevkunov under threat, while Ivankovich confessed to receiving a homemade bomb. The Kremlin condemned the alleged plot, though Kyiv has not responded. Russian media have long described Shevkunov, now head of Crimea’s church, as “Putin’s confessor.” Confession videos were released under unclear circumstances. Reuters

Russia reportedly attacking Sumy Oblast border; military hasn't confirmed. Russian infantry units are attempting to breach the border in Sumy Oblast but have not achieved a breakthrough, according to Andrii Kovalenko of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation. The DeepState monitoring group marked Novenke as contested, suggesting Russian forces crossed the border. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the claims. The region borders Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine’s incursion last summer aimed to disrupt Russian offensive plans. Moscow claims to have regained 64% of Kursk territory, though Ukraine reports nearly 40,000 Russian casualties there. Fighting continues, with no major advances reported. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 20 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed three people and injured 20, regional officials said on Friday. Ukrainian forces downed 107 of 208 drones, with 97 likely being decoys. A Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia damaged homes and injured an elderly woman. In Donetsk Oblast, three were killed, and seven injured. A drone attack in Balakliia destroyed an apartment, injuring three. Kherson Oblast saw 36 settlements targeted, wounding seven people. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Feb. 27. Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials refuse US-negotiated terms and demand Ukraine surrender non-occupied territory while reaffirming expansionist claims over "Novorossiya." Kremlin directives to Russian state media focus on portraying US President Donald Trump as receptive to Russia while attempting to drive a wedge between him and other Western leaders. US and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on Thursday to discuss diplomatic relations, including the resumption of embassy operations. The Kremlin is reportedly offering the US economic incentives unrelated to the war in Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian and Western concessions tied to the war.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, while Russian forces made gains near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump-Zelensky Meeting Implodes, Threatening Peace Talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left the White House without signing a proposed mineral-rights deal after a tense and combative exchange with President Donald Trump over negotiations with Russia and the future of U.S. support for Ukraine. The meeting, originally meant to solidify U.S. backing, instead exposed deep disagreements, with Trump pressing for a swift peace deal and Zelensky warning against trusting Putin. Trump criticized Ukraine’s military position, accused Zelensky of lacking gratitude for U.S. aid, and warned that Kyiv was gambling with World War III. The canceled joint press conference and abrupt end to the visit cast uncertainty over future military and political support from Washington and the viability of a European peacekeeping force, which would likely need U.S. backing. The clash follows Trump’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO and U.S. talks with Russia excluding Kyiv, leaving Zelensky’s government increasingly isolated as it seeks security guarantees and international support for Ukraine’s post-war recovery.  Wall Street Journal

King Charles invites Trump to make ‘unprecedented’ second state visit. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer handed President Donald Trump the envelope with a flourish. “This is really special,” he beamed. “This has never happened before. This is unprecedented.” Trump, clearly delighted, said yes. The British government was on a charm offensive, clearly aiming to pry Trump away from the influence of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The royal family is the U.K.’s greatest asset, and it’s known to be especially effective with Trump, who has often spoken of his, and his mother’s, admiration for Queen Elizabeth II. The late monarch hosted Trump for a state visit in 2019, only the third American president she had so honored. (The others were George W. Bush and Barack Obama.)  On Thursday, King Charles proposed to make Trump the first and only elected leader in modern times to enjoy two state visits in Britain.  “At Windsor,” Trump said proudly, showing reporters the king’s letter. To top it off, Charles’ letter suggested that they could meet at Balmoral or Dumfries House in Scotland to discuss details, a notion that should appeal to Trump, whose mother came from Scotland and whose Trump International golf resort in Menie is just 58 miles from Balmoral.  Washington Post BBC

Analysis: How Starmer’s groundwork paid off with Trump on historic US trip. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington was seen as a major success after months of careful preparation. Starmer secured a promise from Trump for a trade deal may exempt the UK from U.S. tariffs and received approval for the UK’s plan to transfer the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Starmer also handed Trump a personal invitation from King Charles III for a second state visit, which the president welcomed enthusiastically. However, Trump refused to provide security guarantees for British peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, insisting that economic agreements with Kyiv may be sufficient to deter Russia. Despite their political differences, Starmer’s flattery and personal approach, including discussing family and avoiding direct confrontations, strengthened UK-U.S. relations. His aides were relieved that the visit avoided missteps, contrasting with ex-Prime Minister Theresa May’s past struggles with Trump. With a ceasefire in Ukraine possibly imminent, Starmer now faces the challenge of persuading Trump to support stronger military commitments. The Times

Putin praises Trump for easing U.S.-Russia tensions. Speaking to Russia’s Federal Security Service Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared, “The first contacts with the new American administration give us some hope. There is a mutual willingness to work on restoring the relations and gradually tackle the colossal amount of the systemic and strategic problems in the global architecture that had piled up.” He claimed that “Western elites” were intent on “maintaining global instability.” “These forces will try to disrupt or discredit the dialogue that has begun,” he said, evidently referring to a U.K.-French joint plan for a European “reassurance force” in postwar Ukraine, primarily based on air power and supported by the US. President Donald Trump has so far refused to commit the U.S. to “backstop” that plan. Trump has claimed Putin told him he would not oppose a European deployment to postwar Ukraine, but on Wednesday, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov denied that Russia had said any such thing. Lavrov said Russia could not allow Ukraine to be “pumped up with [western] weapons again.”  On Thursday, U.S. and Russian officials met in the official residence of the U.S. consul general in Istanbul to discuss strengthening diplomatic ties.  New York Times Financial Times

Trump says tariffs for Mexico, Canada start March 4. In a Truth Social post Thursday, President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over the drug trade, starting Tuesday, March 4. “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” he wrote. “China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date.”  China is deemed responsible for much of the fentanyl reaching the U.S.  Reuters Associated Press CNN BBC 

Mexico sends drug lord Caro Quintero and 28 other alleged traffickers and killers to the U.S.; some may face death penalty.   Mexico surprised the U.S. Thursday by flying drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, who allegedly ordered the torture-murder of DEA agent Enrique Camarena in 1985, to the U.S., along with 28 other men wanted for murder or trafficking in the U.S. Among the prisoners flown to the U.S. in a Mexican army plane were brothers Miguel and Omar Treviño Morales, known as Z-40 and Z-42, who led the vicious Los Zetas cartel;  Martin Sotelo, charged with killing North Carolina Deputy Sheriff Ned Byrd in 2022; and Antonio Oseguera Cervantes, brother of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, AKA “El Mencho, leader of the Jalisco New Generation cartel (CJNG), one of the two most important and dangerous cartels sending drugs to the U.S.  Most stunningly, Attorney General Pam Bondi disclosed that the Mexican government had handed over its own citizens without insisting that the U.S. agree to forego the death penalty, an explosive issue in Mexico.  Bondi said in a statement that federal prosecutors might seek the death penalty for Caro Quintero and five others charged with capital crimes. “That’s absolutely unheard of,” said Bill Bodner, who, as special agent in charge of the DEA office in Los Angeles, presided over the Camarena murder investigation for some years. Bodner and other DEA agents believe Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum surrendered the traffickers without strings in order to prevent President Donald Trump from levying a threatened 25 percent tariff on Mexican exports to the U.S.  Also, Trump’s Feb. 20 executive order formally designating Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations raised Mexican fears that American special forces would launch surprise anti-narcotics raids inside Mexico. Mexico's foreign ministry said Thursday that top security officials met with U.S. counterparts in Washington and agreed to take joint actions to fight organized crime in both countries.  New York Times  Los Angeles Times  Associated Press Justice Department Reuters 

Secret U.S. Drone Program Helped Capture Mexican Cartel Bosses. On January 5, 2023, Mexican special forces, supported by U.S. intelligence and surveillance, launched a pre-dawn raid to capture Ovidio Guzmán, son of El Chapo and a key figure in the Sinaloa Cartel’s fentanyl empire. Ovidio, along with his brothers, known as the Chapitos, inherited their father’s criminal network and expanded it into one of the world’s largest fentanyl operations, according to U.S. authorities. The operation targeted a fortified compound just north of Culiacán, the cartel’s stronghold. A Black Hawk helicopter, armed with a six-barrel rotary cannon, opened fire on the compound, forcing cartel gunmen armed with .50-caliber sniper rifles to retreat. Meanwhile, a U.S. Reaper drone hovered at 20,000 feet, streaming live, high-definition night-vision video to Mexican command centers, allowing real-time adjustments to the assault. The raid sparked intense fighting, leaving 150 cartel gunmen and 10 Mexican soldiers dead. Ultimately, Ovidio was captured, marking a major victory in the U.S.-backed war on drugs. Ovidio was extradited to the United States, where he faces serious trafficking charges, further underscoring the high-stakes partnership between the U.S. and Mexico in targeting cartel leadership.  Wall Street Journal 

Inside Kash Patel’s Whirlwind Start at the FBI.  Kash Patel’s whirlwind start as FBI Director has triggered confusion and controversy, as he rapidly announced sweeping changes, including a $100 million restructuring that relocates 1,500 employees without clear funding. Patel also purged civil-service leaders, installed political allies, and took on a second role overseeing the ATF, a highly unusual move. His plans include reorganizing the FBI into a regional command structure, raising fitness requirements, and even partnering with the UFC. Patel, a close Trump ally with a partisan reputation, has openly stated his intention to reshape the FBI, shifting its focus from national security to violent crime. His actions have alienated many agents and triggered retirements, while some advisors have already resigned in protest. Patel’s unconventional leadership style—eschewing suits, preferring Vegas to D.C., and bringing in his personal trainer—underscores his intent to break norms at the traditionally staid agency. Critics say his partisan background and lack of law enforcement leadership experience make him unfit for the role, while supporters say his disruptive approach is exactly what’s needed to reform the FBI.  Wall Street Journal 

Canada tightens border to meet Trump demands, avert tariffs. The Canada Border Services Agency said Thursday it is launching a border blitz to interdict fentanyl and other synthetic narcotics headed for the U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that 25 percent tariffs would be levied on Canadian goods on March 4, unless Canada makes substantial progress cracking down on drug smugglers. "We are quite convinced that the efforts we've made thus far should satisfy the U.S. administration," Public Safety Minister David McGuinty said Thursday.  Reuters

EU fights Trump tariff threats. The European Union pushed back hard Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump  told reporters that “the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it.”  EU officials promised to fight any wholesale tariff of 25% on all EU products. “The EU wasn’t formed to screw anyone,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said in an X post. “Quite the opposite. It was formed to maintain peace, to build respect among our nations, to create free and fair trade, and to strengthen our transatlantic friendship. As simple as that.”“We are not out to screw anyone,” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola told an audience at Johns Hopkins University Thursday.   “We are going to defend our interests when our economies are attacked with tariffs that are completely unjustified and represent a veiled threat to our economic sovereignty,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said.  The EU also warned that the moment U.S. tariffs are announced, Europe would respond with tough countermeasures on U.S. industries like bourbon, jeans and motorcycles.  “Allow me to be clear: The EU will react firmly and immediately,” Mertsola said. “We don’t want to go down that road — let me be clear — but we are ready.”  Associated Press 

Judge stops Trump administration’s firings of federal workers. U.S. District Judge William Alsup, who sits in San Francisco, Thursday ordered the Office of Personnel Management to rescind mass firing of probationary workers across the government. The ruling affected more than two dozen agencies, including the Department of Defense, the Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management and the National Science Foundation.  Washington Post Reuters   

USAID watchdog hides harsh findings on Trump’s aid freeze. The watchdog for the U.S. Agency for International Development has withheld two critical reports on the consequences of President Donald Trump’s funding freeze on projects in Africa and the Middle East, for fear that the White House will retaliate.  One report says the cutbacks threaten the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and, risk more than $300 million in humanitarian aid for Gaza. An unpublished global audit found that the cuts posed risks of widespread looting and disease, and tens of millions of dollars in new costs caused by the withdrawal of foreign aid and mass relocation of USAID staff. On Thursday, USAID workers were allowed to briefly reenter the headquarters in Washington to collect their personal belongings. President Trump is cutting more than 90% of the agency's aid contracts.  Washington Post  ReutersAssociated Press

Former defense chiefs accuse Trump of ‘reckless’ Pentagon firings. Five former defense secretaries issued a letter denouncing President Donald Trump’s firing last week of Joint Chiefs chairman Charles Q. Brown and several other senior military officials, urged Congress to hold hearings and said the officers were “fired for purely partisan reasons.”Washington Post Reuters

U.S. terminates USAID funding for polio, H.I.V., malaria and nutrition programs. The State Department in Washington sent out emails Wednesday and Thursday terminating 5,800 projects that had been financed by the United States Agency for International Development.  Recipients included refugee camps, tuberculosis clinics, polio vaccination projects and thousands of other organizations that received crucial funding for lifesaving work. New York Times  

Hong Kong’s ‘superman’ billionaire and the battle over the Panama Canal. Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, founder of CK Hutchison, is facing renewed scrutiny over his company's operations of two ports at the Panama Canal. U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed that "China is operating the Panama Canal," referencing CK Hutchison's port management, a concern that dates back to the company's acquisition of these contracts in 1997. In response, Panamanian lawyers have initiated a lawsuit to annul these concessions, and the Panamanian government has commenced an audit of CK Hutchison's activities. Despite these challenges, CK Hutchison is pursuing expansion plans, including a preliminary £7 billion bid for a majority stake in the UK's Thames Water. Analysts warn that geopolitical tensions may hinder such endeavors. Li Ka-shing, who has historically maintained a complex relationship with Beijing, now finds his company increasingly perceived as a Chinese entity, especially following Hong Kong's 1997 handover and recent political developments. This perception poses significant challenges for CK Hutchison's global operations and investment strategies. Financial Times

As U.S. ramps up immigration crackdown, Panama and Costa Rica are transforming into a ‘black hole’ for migrants. Costa Rica and Panama are facing backlash for their treatment of migrants, including confiscating passports and cellphones, denying legal access, and relocating migrants without transparency, as they struggle to manage an unexpected influx of reverse migration. Both countries have received hundreds of deportees from the U.S., where President Donald Trump’s administration has accelerated deportations. At the same time, thousands of migrants, unable to enter the U.S., have started travelling southward through Central America. One expert at the University of Costa Rica said “we’re a reflection of current United States immigration policy,” and lamented the lack of “focus on human rights” amid a preoccupation with “control and security.” Panama’s Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Ruiz-Hernandez stated that some deportees are being temporarily housed and provided medical support before being sent back to their home countries. However, migrants report being detained without clear information, denied legal assistance, and forced into relocation. Meanwhile, Costa Rica’s Ombudsman’s Office has raised similar concerns about the treatment of deportees. Migrants describe confusion and isolation as they are moved between detention centers and transport hubs. While officials claim to be assisting migrants, journalists covering the situation have reported attempts by authorities to restrict access to information. Associated Press 

Nicaragua’s authoritarian government, blasted for abuses, withdraws from U.N. Human Rights Council. Nicaragua on Thursday announced its withdrawal from the U.N. Human Rights Council in response to a U.N. report accusing President Daniel Ortega's government of human rights violations and authoritarian rule. Vice President Rosario Murillo, who is also Ortega’s wife, called the decision "sovereign and irrevocable" and stated that Nicaragua would stop participating in the council’s activities. The report, released Wednesday, claims Ortega and Murillo have dismantled independent institutions and committed human rights abuses that may constitute crimes against humanity. It also implicates the Nicaraguan army in the brutal crackdown on anti-government protests in 2018, which resulted in over 350 deaths. Ortega’s government has historically dismissed U.N. reports as part of an international conspiracy, with Murillo calling the latest findings “falsehoods and slander.” Despite global condemnation, Managua continues to reject external scrutiny of its political repression and human rights violations. Reuters

EUROPE

Macron’s told-you-so moment. French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for European “strategic autonomy” has gained urgency as Donald Trump’s direct talks with Russia raise doubts about U.S. reliability. France’s skepticism of American military support dates back to the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the U.S. pressured Britain and France to abandon a military intervention to retake the Suez Canal from Egypt. Washington, prioritizing Cold War stability, forced a ceasefire, humiliating Paris and reinforcing fears that Europe couldn’t rely on the U.S. This led France to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Now, with Germany’s Friedrich Merz signaling interest in European defense cooperation, Europe faces a strategic reckoning. Politico EU

Trump is ‘no longer an ally,’ former French President Hollande says. Former French President François Hollande declared that under President Donald Trump, the U.S. is “no longer an ally,” accusing Trump of aligning with adversaries. In an interview with Le Monde, Hollande cited Trump’s remarks calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator,” his direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the U.S. vote against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s invasion. While he did not fault Emmanuel Macron’s outreach to Trump, Hollande argued that persuasion would be ineffective. He warned of a potential U.S.-Europe “divorce” and remains a possible candidate for France’s 2027 presidential election. Politico EU

The EU beat COVID and ditched Russian energy. Now it must learn to live without U.S. security. The European Union, having overcome COVID-19 and its reliance on Russian energy, now faces the challenge of reducing dependence on U.S. security. With the Trump administration shifting focus away from Europe, leaders like Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz stress the need for EU military self-sufficiency. However, Europe’s defense spending lags, with NATO urging 3.5-3.7% of GDP to counter a potential Russian attack by the decade’s end. Without U.S. forces, estimates suggest Europe would need 300,000 additional troops and €250 billion annually. Ukraine seeks 150,000 European troops for post-war security, but current EU military capacity is insufficient. Budget constraints, manpower shortages, and political divisions complicate efforts, though the EU is easing fiscal rules and considering defense bonds. A March 19 white paper will outline major military projects and funding strategies. Yet political fragmentation, rising hard-right influence, and internal disagreements threaten Europe’s ability to act decisively on security. Associated Press

Analysis: Allies Assess What Intelligence They Can Still Share with Trump. U.S. intelligence-sharing partnerships, particularly the Five Eyes alliance, are under strain as allies reassess what they can safely share under President Donald Trump. Concerns stem from accusations of Trump mishandling classified information, his administration’s warming ties with Russia, and reports of internal debates about removing Canada from Five Eyes. Partners reportedly fear intelligence leaks or misuse, leading to reduced cooperation. While formal agreements may remain intact, analysts say trust is eroding, making it harder for the U.S. to access and protect sources. As a result, Western security coordination may weaken, and Washington could be increasingly excluded from critical intelligence flows. Foreign Policy

Senior German MP says vote was ‘successfully’ manipulated by foreign actors. A senior German member of parliament, Konstantin von Notz, warned that Germany’s federal election was “successfully manipulated” by Russia and other foreign actors, influencing the decision-making process. While not calling for the result to be overturned, he stressed that right-wing extremism has grown due to such interference. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) placed second with nearly 21%, while the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) led with 28.5%. Von Notz criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government for not openly addressing foreign influence, citing Russian disinformation, AI-generated content, and alleged financial irregularities in AfD funding. He warned that China and Russia aim to destabilize democracies globally. Financial Times

Russia's seizures offer warning to Western firms hoping for Trump-inspired return. Russia’s state seizures of foreign and domestic businesses show no signs of reversal, raising doubts about Western firms returning despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to restore ties with Moscow. The Kremlin has taken control of at least a dozen foreign firms, including Carlsberg and Danone, through "temporary management." Glavprodukt, a U.S.-owned food company, was among the latest to be seized. Owners report lost control, declining sales, and forced sales at low prices. Russia is also considering laws to seize U.S. and European assets as compensation for frozen Russian property abroad, further deterring Western investors. Reuters

With new U.S. stance, Russians envision a return to normalcy — and Ikea. With warming U.S.-Russia ties under President Donald Trump, many Russians are cautiously hoping for a return to normal life, including the potential revival of Western brands and financial services. Moscow officials suggest some American businesses may return by midyear, fueling speculation and optimism. However, Russian policymakers remain wary, insisting foreign firms must "pay for everything" if they return. Trump’s stance unsettles hardline pro-war voices, while analysts warn expectations could lead to disappointment. Despite skepticism, the possibility of Russia exiting wartime isolation has given many Russians their first hope in years. Washington Post

Trump says he is likely to accept UK deal on Chagos Islands. President Donald Trump signaled support for a UK-Mauritius deal over the Chagos Islands, boosting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The agreement, struck in October, cedes sovereignty to Mauritius while ensuring U.S.-UK control of the Diego Garcia military base under a 99-year lease. Trump, meeting Starmer in Washington, said he was inclined to approve the deal but needed more details. The agreement has faced uncertainty due to Mauritius’ new leadership and U.S. concerns over China’s regional influence. Reuters 

Suspected Islamic extremist charged in German knife attack that left 3 dead and 10 wounded. German prosecutors have charged Syrian citizen Issa Al H. with murder, attempted murder, and membership in the Islamic State (IS) for the August 2024 Solingen knife attack that killed three and wounded ten at a local festival. Authorities say he pledged allegiance to IS and viewed victims as infidels. The attack fueled Germany’s migration debate ahead of recent elections. Previously slated for deportation to Bulgaria, he evaded authorities. The incident prompted stricter knife laws and deportation policies. IS claimed responsibility, though it provided no evidence, as the group continues sporadic attacks despite losing territorial control.  Associated Press Deutsche Welle  

Poland’s nationalists stick to Trump like glue ahead of presidential election. Poland’s nationalist opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS) is aligning closely with President Donald Trump ahead of the May presidential election. Polish President Andrzej Duda attended the Conservative Political Action Conference, reinforcing ties with Trump, while PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki backed Trump’s criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Nawrocki has also opposed Ukraine’s NATO and European Union membership, tapping into growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment. While PiS benefits from Trump’s popularity among right-wing voters, his pro-Russia stance and NATO skepticism pose risks. Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski leads in polls, but a close second round is expected. Trump may visit Poland in late April. Politico EU

How Germany’s far right intends to use its big stage in opposition. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the largest opposition force in the Bundestag after nearly doubling its seats in the February 23 election. This status grants AfD more speaking time, state funding, and influence over parliamentary committees. The party is expected to use its platform to attack Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz’s coalition while capitalizing on anti-immigration sentiment and economic dissatisfaction. AfD leaders hope to erode the conservative firewall against cooperation with them. While concerns persist over the party’s ties to Russia and China, AfD aims to strengthen its position for the next national election. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

One of the world’s longest conflicts may be ending. Imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan called for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to disarm and dissolve, marking a potential end to a four-decade insurgency against Turkey. His statement, read by Kurdish politicians, follows secret talks with Turkish officials. This could reshape security dynamics across Turkey, Iraq, and Syria if implemented. However, uncertainties remain over enforcement, political concessions, and PKK factions' willingness to comply. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may use the process to consolidate power, while Kurdish groups seek political rights. The move also affects Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) distances itself from Ocalan’s call. The Economist New York Times Reuters Associated Press 

What to Know About the Turkey-P.K.K. Conflict. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has waged an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s, seeking greater Kurdish rights. The conflict has killed over 40,000 people. The PKK designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU, has carried out attacks on military and civilian targets, while Turkey has conducted military operations against it. Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has now called for the group to disband. Previous peace efforts have failed, and while Turkey has allowed some Kurdish cultural rights, it continues to repress pro-Kurdish politicians. The impact of Ocalan’s statement remains uncertain. New York Times

Report suggests over 1,000 Syrians died in airport prison under brutal Assad regime. A new report by the Syria Justice and Accountability Centre (SJAC) has uncovered mass graves linked to the deaths of over 1,000 detainees at the Mezzeh military airport in Damascus between 2011 and 2017. The victims, who died from execution, torture, or maltreatment, were buried at seven suspected grave sites identified through witness testimony, satellite imagery, and leaked documents. Former detainees described horrific conditions, including daily torture, amputations due to untreated wounds, and the recurrent sound of executions. The Mezzeh facility, which housed at least 29,000 detainees, was a major site for enforced disappearances under the Assad regime, with hangars converted into makeshift prisons. The report, based on interviews with 156 survivors and former intelligence officers, indicates that civilians were hanged while soldiers were executed by firing squad. The findings were corroborated by leaked intelligence documents listing 1,154 deaths at Mezzeh, excluding those sentenced to death by military courts. As the Assad regime fell in December, efforts to locate missing persons have intensified. The new Syrian government has banned former regime officials from speaking publicly. Meanwhile, the U.S. has filed war crimes charges against two Syrian intelligence officers for human rights abuses, including crimes against American citizens. Reuters

Ongoing talks on Gaza ceasefire are 'pretty good,’ says Trump. During a White House press conference on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that "pretty good talks" were underway regarding the Gaza ceasefire, though he provided few details. The three-phase ceasefire, which began on January 19, has so far led to the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages and 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, the first phase is set to expire in two days, prompting Israel to send negotiators to Cairo in hopes of extending the agreement. Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. The United Nations has voiced concern over the distressing conditions in which both Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees have been held. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reiterated his support for a two-state solution, calling it the only viable path to lasting peace in the region. Reuters Times of Israel 

Israel’s army admits failures on Oct. 7. An Israeli military investigation found that Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack succeeded due to the army’s misjudgment of the group’s intentions and capabilities. The military expected Hamas to focus on governing Gaza rather than launching a large-scale assault. Instead, Hamas used over 60 attack routes, overwhelming Israeli forces and causing the deadliest attack in the country’s history. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi accepted responsibility but did not assign blame to specific officers. The findings could increase pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to authorize a broader political inquiry, which he has so far resisted. Many Israelis blame Netanyahu’s strategy, including allowing Qatari cash transfers to Gaza, for enabling Hamas’ buildup. The report recommended military reforms, including intelligence restructuring and the creation of special units for surprise attacks. The military’s failure, coupled with Netanyahu’s refusal to take responsibility, has fueled ongoing political and public frustration in Israel. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China says it opposes Trump’s latest tariff threat, vows retaliation. China has condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, accusing Washington of "shifting blame" over the fentanyl crisis and “shirking responsibility.” Beijing stressed its strict anti-drug policies and vowed to take necessary countermeasures to protect its interests. The new tariffs, set to take effect alongside duties on Mexico and Canada, come just before China’s annual parliamentary meetings, where economic priorities for 2025 will be outlined. Beijing has repeatedly argued that unilateral tariffs violate World Trade Organization rules and disrupt global supply chains. Despite Beijing’s hopes for renewed trade talks, analysts suggest that the Trump administration is preparing for a broader economic decoupling from China. Trump justified the additional tariffs by citing insufficient progress on curbing fentanyl flows into the U.S., though China’s Public Security Ministry reported recent crackdowns on drug-making materials. Both sides appear to be bracing for continued trade tensions, with China’s Politburo discussing measures to shield the economy from external shocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. has intensified scrutiny of Chinese investments and AI technology exports, further signaling an ongoing economic rivalry. Reuters Al Jazeera 

Philippine security officials arrest five suspected Chinese spies.  Philippine authorities have arrested five Chinese nationals accused of spying on the country’s navy near the South China Sea using drones. The men, who led Chinese Communist Party-affiliated civic groups, had also donated cash and vehicles to local governments and police forces in Tarlac and Manila in 2022 and 2023. Investigators found sensitive images and maps of military sites on their phones, and they now face espionage charges carrying up to 20 years in prison. The men were closely tied to China’s United Front Work Department, which oversees foreign influence operations, and they regularly met with China’s military attaché in Manila. Beijing denies the spying allegations, calling them smear tactics, while the arrests have further raised tensions between the Philippines and China, already at odds over maritime claims in the South China Sea. The case highlights growing concerns about foreign influence and security threats in the Philippines, a key U.S. ally in the region.  Reuters 

World War II shows that aggression will only result in failure, Taiwan warns China. The Taiwanese defense ministry on Friday responded to China’s latest threats by stating that history proves aggression and expansion ultimately fail, referencing World War Two. This comes after China's defense ministry declared that Taiwan would inevitably come under Beijing’s control, comparing the island’s resistance to a "mantis trying to stop a chariot." Taipei condemned China’s increasing military activities, including recent drills near its southwestern coast, accusing Beijing of destabilizing the region and being the biggest "troublemaker" in the international community. The defense ministry added that "the actions of the Communist military in recent years are repeating the mistakes of the invaders and pushing China towards defeat." Taiwan reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its military, safeguarding sovereignty, and maintaining regional stability. Reuters

Messages reveal confusion, surprise between airline pilots over Chinese live-fire warning near Australia. A Chinese live-fire naval exercise near Australia last week caught pilots off guard, forcing them to change flight paths through a busy air corridor. Satellite text messages show that pilots first learned of the drills mid-flight via emergency radio broadcasts, as China had not issued a standard aviation warning (NOTAM). The incident underscores growing geopolitical disruptions affecting air travel, and highlights China’s increasing military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. China claimed it had provided adequate warning, but Australia and New Zealand criticized the notification as inadequate and "irresponsible." The drills took place in international waters but raised safety concerns, recalling past incidents in which civilian aircraft were shot down in conflict zones. Air traffic controllers scrambled to alert nearby flights, as well as the Australian military, resulting in rerouted paths for 49 aircraft. The lack of advance warning increased pilot workload and added risk. While the Chinese warships have since moved south, the unexpected nature of the event underscores mounting tensions between China and Western nations over military activity in the region. Reuters 

Chinese diplomat says nation will not apologize for military drills off Australia. China’s ambassador to Australia on Friday defended his country’s recent live-fire naval drills in the Tasman Sea, maintaining that there was no need to apologize because the exercises complied with international law and followed standard notification practices. The drills, which forced 49 flights to alter their paths, triggered indignation from Australia and New Zealand, who claimed they did not receive adequate notice. The ambassador, Xiao Qian, asserted that the drills posed no threat to Australia and suggested that more Chinese naval activities in the region should be expected. He stressed that his country, as a major regional power, routinely deploys vessels for various operations, and told broadcaster ABC News, "I don't see there is any reason why the Chinese side should feel sorry.” Australian officials first learned of the exercise through a Virgin Australia pilot’s emergency radio message rather than a formal defense alert. Australia's defense chief acknowledged that authorities were likely informed of the drill more than 30 minutes after it began. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese downplayed the issue, stating China did not violate maritime laws, but the opposition criticized the delayed awareness, arguing it could indicate a security oversight. The Chinese naval task group has since continued west across the Great Australian Bight. Reuters 

Shoigu, Russia’s top security official, holds Beijing talks with Xi.  Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Russia's TASS state news agency reported on Friday. Earlier, Shoigu, a former defense minister, held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russia's Interfax news agency said. It cited Shoigu as saying he was in China on behalf of President Vladimir Putin and noting how aligned Moscow and Beijing were when it came to various international issues. Reuters 

Australia, U.N. condemn Thailand's deportation of vulnerable Uyghurs to China. Thailand’s secretive deportation of 40 Uyghurs to China has drawn widespread condemnation from human rights groups, the U.N., and governments including Australia and the U.S. Critics warn the Uyghurs face severe persecution, including torture and imprisonment, in Xinjiang. The move highlights China’s growing diplomatic influence in Southeast Asia, particularly under the Trump administration, which has deprioritized human rights issues. Thai officials framed the Uyghurs as undocumented migrants and cited Chinese assurances of humane treatment. However, past deportations have resulted in long prison sentences. The controversy strains Thailand’s ties with Western nations and raises concerns about Beijing’s security influence in the region. Reuters New York Times UN News The Guardian Associated Press CNN   

North Korean state media says leader has demanded nuclear readiness following missile test. North Korea’s state-run KCNA news agency on Friday reported that leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a strategic cruise missile test and ordered full readiness to use the country’s nuclear attack capabilities. The test, conducted on Wednesday over the Korean peninsula’s west coast, was meant to warn "enemies" and demonstrate Pyongyang’s nuclear readiness. Kim stressed that nuclear force preparedness is essential for national defense and deterrence. While cruise missiles are designed to carry nuclear warheads, they do not violate U.N. Security Council resolutions like ballistic missiles, making them less likely to draw international condemnation. South Korea confirmed it had detected missile launch preparations and tracked multiple cruise missiles on Wednesday morning. The test occurred during the same week that Kim visited military schools, where he reinforced the importance of loyalty and ideological training for young officers. Although the leader did not name any specific country, the North has maintained its aggressive rhetoric against the U.S. and South Korea. Reuters France 24 Korea Herald Associated Press 

U.S. tariff threats prompt Vietnam to support deportations, says lawyer. Vietnam has agreed to speed up the repatriation of Vietnamese nationals detained in the U.S. after facing threats of trade tariffs and visa sanctions from the U.S. government. The country pledged to process U.S. deportation requests within 30 days, a significant acceleration compared to past delays. Additionally, Hanoi has committed to issuing travel documents for 30 detained Vietnamese nationals to enable their deportation. Historically, Vietnam resisted deportations by refusing to issue travel documents, but it changed its stance after the U.S. threatened economic consequences. While President Trump has not explicitly targeted the Communist-run nation in his tariff policies, his administration has signaled that Vietnam’s large trade surplus and barriers put it at risk for duties. Hanoi is particularly vulnerable to potential global tariffs on semiconductors, as it is a key supplier to the U.S. The majority of the 8,600 Vietnamese nationals facing deportation entered the U.S. as refugees before 1995. While the Vietnamese foreign ministry has not commented, it previously stated that it would cooperate on repatriations under existing agreements. Reuters 

Critical Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing still shuttered. The Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been closed since February 21, causing significant trade disruptions and stranding thousands in winter conditions. The closure stems from a dispute over Afghanistan's construction of a border post, with Pakistan shutting down the crossing in response. Over 5,000 trucks carrying essential goods have been stuck on both sides, leading to financial losses for traders. Stranded travelers, including women, children, and patients seeking medical treatment in Pakistan, have been forced to sleep in open areas. Afghan officials accuse Islamabad of blocking Afghan construction efforts while allowing their own, calling the shutdown unilateral and unjustified. Pakistan has nearly completed a border fence along the Durand Line, a boundary that Kabul has never officially recognized, leading to frequent tensions and closures. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a militant group allied with the Afghan Taliban, has intensified attacks on Pakistani security forces, further straining relations. Afghan authorities claim they are working to resolve the issue, but Pakistan has not issued an official statement. With trade, transit, and humanitarian movement severely affected, pressure is mounting for a diplomatic solution to reopen the vital crossing. Associated Press  

India exploring critical minerals in Zambia, Congo and Australia, official says. India is seeking to mine critical minerals in Zambia, Congo, and Australia to secure key raw materials like lithium, Mines Secretary V.L. Kantha Rao said Thursday. Companies such as Coal India and NMDC are exploring resources in Australia, while Zambia has granted India 9,000 square kilometers for cobalt and copper exploration. India is also considering mining in Congo and Tanzania. Additionally, the government is assessing lithium reserves in Jammu and Kashmir, with clarity expected by May 2025. Reuters  

AFRICA

Rebel leader says explosions at M23 rally in Congo’s east kill 11, wound 65. Explosions targeted a rally hosted by M23 rebels in Bukavu, eastern Congo, on Tuesday, killing at least 11 people and leaving 65 injured. Rebel leaders, who recently seized control of the city amid a lightning offensive, blamed the Congolese government, while President Felix Tshisekedi attributed the attack to “foreign” forces. Conflicting reports emerged on the number of casualties and attackers. The assault occurred as M23 leaders, including the Congo River Alliance (AFC) chief Corneille Nangaa, addressed residents. Footage showed panicked crowds and casualties. Local officials called the attack “sabotage,” with some victims requiring amputations. After, Nangaa asserted that the rebel coalition was “obliged to react,” and condemned the “criminal regime of Kinshasa” for its alleged plot “of exterminating civilian populations.” Tshisekedi maintained that the attack was “a heinous terrorist act” carried out by a “foreign army illegally present on Congolese soil.” Associated Press Reuters The Independent France 24  

French prosecutors close case filed by Congo against Apple over conflict minerals. French prosecutors have dropped a case filed by the Democratic Republic of Congo against Apple subsidiaries, which accused them of using conflict minerals in their supply chain. The Paris prosecutor’s office stated that allegations of money laundering and deceptive business practices were "not sufficiently well-founded" and dismissed the case. In a document examined by Reuters and dated February 18, the prosecutors suggested that Congo contact a different office handling war crimes. Congo’s lawyers criticized the decision and plan to challenge it, citing the seriousness of the accusations. The country is a major supplier of 3T minerals (tin, tantalum, tungsten), which are essential for electronics but are often sourced from mines controlled by armed groups involved in human rights abuses, such as mass rapes, massacres of civilians, looting and other crimes. Apple had denied the allegations, asserting that its suppliers are prohibited from using minerals sourced from Congo or Rwanda. While France dropped the case, Belgium has appointed an investigating magistrate to review similar complaints filed there. Reuters 

Experts question if Senegal’s peace deal with separatist rebels will end decades of conflict. Senegal's government has signed a new peace deal with a faction of the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) in an effort to end the decades-long separatist conflict in the southern Casamance region. This week, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko hailed the agreement as a step toward lasting peace, offering amnesty, social reintegration, and a presidential pardon for imprisoned rebels. However, analysts argue that the deal is incomplete as it excludes the most powerful faction led by hardliner Salif Sadio and does not address the root causes of the conflict, such as the region’s historical neglect and underdevelopment. Critics believe that without broader political and administrative concessions, peace will remain elusive. While younger generations in Casamance increasingly identify with Senegal, the MFDC’s hardline faction still demands independence. Some rebel groups have accused the government of selectively negotiating, which they argue undermines genuine peace efforts. The rebels themselves have not officially responded to the deal. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Global stocks slide as tariff threats add to big tech jitters. Global stock markets experienced significant declines following President Donald Trump's announcement of additional tariffs, intensifying existing concerns over the tech sector. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices each fell by more than 2%. European markets also saw downturns, with Germany's Dax and France's Cac 40 both decreasing by 0.3%. In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, erasing its gains for the year. Nvidia's 8.4% stock decline, despite strong earnings, contributed to the tech sell-off. Additionally, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced sharp losses, while the U.S. dollar saw a modest increase. Financial Times

Military-Tech Startups Vie for Billions as Hegseth Shakes Up Pentagon Spending.  Silicon Valley defense-tech companies are seizing new opportunities under the Trump administration’s push to modernize the Pentagon, with startups like Anduril Industries, Palantir Technologies, and Epirus lobbying for contracts in areas such as autonomous drones and a next-generation “Golden Dome” missile-defense shield. This shift, driven by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, seeks to cut costs, favor commercial innovation, and reduce dependence on traditional defense contractors. A proposed missile-defense system using technology from Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX is being reviewed by Pentagon officials. While startups see this as a long-awaited opening to gain a larger share of defense spending, they still face resistance from established contractors and Congressional allies who want to protect legacy programs and jobs. The administration’s outreach to venture capitalists and efforts to prioritize tech-driven solutions represent a major cultural shift for the Pentagon, though it remains uncertain whether startups will fully displace traditional defense giants.  Wall Street Journal

Gabbard condemns U.K.’s reported demand for Apple to hand over backdoor access to users’ cloud data. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has raised concerns over the British government's reported demand for Apple to create backdoor access to encrypted cloud data. In a response to Congress, Gabbard warned that such a demand would violate Americans’ privacy rights and set a troubling precedent of a foreign government pressuring a U.S. tech company. The issue arose after Apple announced it would stop offering its Advanced Data Protection feature in the U.K. following a secret order from British security officials seeking access to encrypted iCloud data. Gabbard has called for a review of the U.K.’s request by U.S. intelligence agencies and emphasized that existing agreements prohibit such data demands between the two nations. The controversy comes amid broader concerns over intelligence-sharing relationships under President Donald Trump. While British authorities have not commented, Gabbard, known for her past criticisms of government surveillance, stressed the need for Washington and London to balance security with civil liberties. Associated Press BBC Bloomberg The Guardian Computer Weekly 

OpenAI reveals new AI technology for ‘natural conversation’. OpenAI has released GPT-4.5, marking the final version of its chatbot system before shifting to "chain-of-thought reasoning," where AI will take more time to think before responding. While GPT-4.5 improves conversational flow and user understanding, it is unlikely to generate as much excitement as GPT-4, as AI research is now focusing on reasoning systems that solve complex tasks step by step. The company’s vice president of research, Mia Glaese, said that the new model has the capability “to engage in warm, intuitive, naturally flowing conversations, and we think it has a stronger understanding of what users mean when they ask for something.” Companies like Google, Meta, and DeepSeek are also developing reasoning AI, which could be especially useful for coding, math, and scientific applications. These systems use reinforcement learning, a process where AI learns from trial and error over time. One challenge for OpenAI and its competitors is that they have exhausted most available internet data to train models like GPT-4.5, pushing them toward reasoning-based AI development. While reasoning AIs perform well on standardized tests, they still make errors and “hallucinate” information. New York Times

U.S. Army soldier, connected to Snowflake hack, allegedly tried to sell data to foreign spies. Cameron Wagenius, a 21-year-old U.S. Army soldier, has been accused of attempting to sell stolen sensitive information to a foreign intelligence service while also trying to extort $500,000 from AT&T by threatening to leak call records of high-ranking officials. According to court documents, Wagenius attempted to defect to Russia, conducting online searches on how to flee the U.S. military and whether hacking could be considered treason. Prosecutors allege he engaged with state-level actors, blurring the line between cybercrime and national security threats. His alleged activities were linked to a broader cybercrime operation that targeted 165 organizations using stolen Snowflake cloud data. His co-conspirators, Connor Moucka and John Binns, were previously indicted for extorting over 10 organizations, including AT&T, which confirmed the breach in July. Authorities seized Wagenius’ devices in December, uncovering access to thousands of stolen identification documents and large amounts of cryptocurrency. Despite orders from his commanding officer, he purchased a new laptop and used VPN software to continue his activities from Fort Cavazos in Texas. Cybercrime experts warn that this case highlights the growing intersection between financial cybercrime and national security threats. Prosecutors argue that Wagenius presents a serious flight risk and expect additional charges. Cyberscoop Bloomberg 

Chinese state-backed threat groups are demonstrating specialized offensive skills, threatening global infrastructure. A recent CrowdStrike report revealed that cyberattacks by China-backed nation-state hackers increased by a “terrifying” 150% in 2024, showcasing advanced technical capabilities and specialized targeting across critical global sectors, including finance, media, manufacturing, and telecoms. China has developed highly skilled cyber units capable of conducting persistent and undetected intrusions. New threat groups such as Liminal Panda, Locksmith Panda, and Operator Panda have targeted telecom networks and critical infrastructure worldwide. Operator Panda (also known as Salt Typhoon) was responsible for a prolonged cyber campaign against U.S. and global telecom providers, remaining active as recently as January. Chinese hackers are moving from "smash-and-grab" tactics (quick data theft) to long-term network infiltration, using botnet-based relay networks (ORB networks) to hide their activities. One of the most concerning groups, Volt Typhoon (Vanguard Panda), has been infiltrating critical logistics infrastructure—including maritime, air, and intercontinental travel networks—potentially to disrupt U.S. military operations in a conflict scenario, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Experts warn that China is not only gathering intelligence but actively pre-positioning cyber forces to limit the U.S.’s ability to respond to future conflicts. If the U.S. deploys a carrier strike group to deter Chinese aggression in Taiwan, cyber disruptions could cripple supply chains, food, and water logistics, weakening military readiness. CrowdStrike emphasized the need for improved cyber defenses to deter China’s growing offensive cyber capabilities, which now rival those of other global powers. Cyberscoop Crowdstrike Cyber Magazine TechTarget

FBI calls on crypto community to avoid laundering funds from last week’s Bybit hack by North Korean threat actors. The FBI is urging the private sector to help contain the $1.5 billion stolen from the Bybit cryptocurrency exchange by North Korean hackers linked to the Lazarus Group (TraderTraitor). The agency released a list of Ethereum wallet addresses tied to the attack and warned that the hackers are rapidly laundering the funds by converting them into Bitcoin and other assets across multiple blockchains. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs reported that $400 million has already been laundered, highlighting the speed of the operation. The attack stemmed from the compromise of a Safe Wallet developer machine, affecting a Bybit account, according to the wallet service Safe. Bybit is offering up to $140 million in bounties to individuals who can help recover the stolen funds, with $4.2 million already awarded to “hunters” as of Thursday. The FBI advised crypto exchanges, DeFi platforms, and RPC node operators to block transactions linked to the hackers to prevent further laundering. The Record TechCrunch Reuters Associated Press The Guardian   

Philippine authorities detain over 400 people in suspected cybercrime hub. Philippine authorities arrested over 400 people, including 207 Chinese and 132 Vietnamese nationals, on Wednesday in a raid on a suspected online gambling and scam hub in Pasay City. The suspects were allegedly involved in illegal online gaming, cryptocurrency fraud, romance scams, and investment scams. Other detainees included individuals from Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Madagascar. Despite President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s order to shut down such operations by the end of last year, these illegal ventures have persisted, with many relocating to Cambodia and Myanmar. There are also allegations that Philippine officials have accepted bribes to allow these operations to continue. Authorities seized computers, SIM cards, and other equipment used to target customers abroad. In previous cases, key suspects have been charged with cybercrimes and human trafficking, while others, who were deceived into working in these scams, have been deported. A 2023 U.N. report highlighted that criminal gangs in Southeast Asia have forced hundreds of thousands into participating in online fraud, often trapping workers in conditions of virtual slavery. Associated Press 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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