Open Source Report for Friday, December 13, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Friday, December 13, 2024

Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 66 as Sullivan, in Israel, presses for ceasefire.

Tracking Putin’s Most Feared Secret Agency—From Inside a Russian Prison and Beyond

Russia launches major missile attack on Ukrainian power infrastructure.

U.S. senator recommends shooting down drones seen over New Jersey

China says it will not be soft on Taiwan independence, declines to confirm recent drills

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

NSA Director: Salt Typhoon ‘Not the Highest-end Operation That We’ve Seen’

Memo to the President: A ‘Perfect Pressure Campaign’ Against Iran 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 66 as Sullivan, in Israel, presses for ceasefire. An Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza Thursday, killing at least 25 Palestinians and wounding dozens more, mostly children, Palestinian medics said.  Later, an Israeli strike killed at least 30 Palestinians and wounded 50 others sheltering in a post office in central Gaza Strip, bringing Thursday’s death toll in Gaza to 66. Also on Thursday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan held official meetings in Israel hoping to restart stalled negotiations between Israel and Hamas.  Sullivan told reporters in Jerusalem that Israel’s ceasefire in Lebanon might lead to an end in the war in Gaza.  Sullivan plans to travel  to Qatar and Egypt in a final push for a deal before Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20.  Associated Press Reuters BBC

 Paraguay reopens embassy in Jerusalem, in diplomatic win for Israel. Paraguay reopened its embassy in Jerusalem on Thursday, recognizing the city as Israel's capital and marking a diplomatic victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid the ongoing Gaza war. The move aligns Paraguay with a small group of nations, including the U.S. and Guatemala, that recognize Jerusalem as the Jewish state’s capital despite its contested status in the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Paraguayan President Santiago Peña initiated the reopening, reversing a previous closure. The ceremony highlighted the growing ties between Paraguay and Israel, with Netanyahu praising Peña and signing bilateral agreements. Peña emphasized his support for Israel, reflecting Asunción’s alignment with pro-Israel policies popular among conservative and evangelical groups. Paraguay’s stance is also part of its broader effort to strengthen ties with U.S. Republicans, including figures like Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio. Associated Press Reuters Times of Israel  

World Food Program official warns Gaza is moving toward famine, Syria facing a crisis. Carl Skau, the deputy executive director of the U.N. World Food Program (WFP), cautioned that the humanitarian organization is facing critical challenges, as escalating conflicts in Syria, Gaza, and Sudan have created dire humanitarian crises, while funding shortages have forced the agency to cut back on aid. Syria is dealing with a "triple crisis" with the fallout from its civil war, increased arrivals due to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and political upheaval after rebels ousted Bashar Assad. Millions face acute hunger, with rising food prices and disrupted markets, but WFP's limited funding has reduced food aid. Northern Gaza is also in a dire state, with no aid having reached some areas for over two months due to conflict and lawlessness. In southern Gaza, food aid has dropped significantly, and international experts warn famine is imminent if conditions do not improve. The world's largest humanitarian crisis in Sudan, and there are 25 million people who are acutely food insecure, with famine declared in parts of Darfur. While WFP has made progress in delivering aid, ongoing conflict hampers efforts. The agency stresses the need for greater international support to address the crisis. WFP is working to diversify its funding but warns that rising needs coupled with dwindling resources will make addressing these crises increasingly difficult. Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says he won’t abandon Ukraine but criticizes Kyiv’s use of US missiles for attacks deep into Russia. President-elect Donald Trump sharply criticized Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied missiles to strike deep into Russia in a Nov. 25 interview with the news magazine. "I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse,” the president-elect said. Trump proposed leveraging U.S. aid to push for negotiations but withheld details of his peace plan, saying, "If I reveal it now, it becomes almost a worthless plan." He affirmed he does not intend to abandon Ukraine. "I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you're going to reach an agreement is not to abandon." He met President Volodymyr Zelensky on Dec. 7 in Paris, an occasion that Zelensky used to emphasize the importance of security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression in the event of a cease-fire. Trump acknowledged the staggering casualties, calling for an agreement to halt what he described as needless destruction: "Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted." However, concerns linger in Kyiv that Trump’s approach will prioritize U.S.-Russia relations over Ukraine’s sovereignty. Russia Kyiv Independent Reuters Time Reuters

Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine Cease-Fire Would Be Your Job. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed that European troops oversee a Ukraine cease-fire, telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Dec. 7 that Europe should lead efforts to monitor peace and arm Ukraine. Trump opposes Ukrainian NATO membership but wants Ukraine to remain strong and well-armed. Officials briefed on the meeting revealed Trump also urged Europe to press China to influence Russia. Zelensky welcomed Macron's suggestion for European troop deployment, emphasizing the need for clarity on Ukraine's European Union and NATO accession timelines. The Kremlin is likely to oppose NATO-country troop involvement and has shown no inclination to end the war despite suffering heavy losses. Wall Street Journal

Russia launches major missile attack on Ukrainian power infrastructure. Russia launched one of its largest missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure early on Friday, targeting multiple regions, including Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Over 290 projectiles, including ballistic and cruise missiles, struck critical facilities, causing widespread power outages. Ukrainian defenses shot down 81 out of 94 missiles and 80 out of the 193 drones launched by Russia, the Air Force said. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that 5 out of 9 operating nuclear power units in Ukraine have been reduced due to the morning attack by Russia. "Russia aims to deprive us of energy. Instead, we must deprive it of the means of terror. I reiterate my call for the urgent delivery of 20 NASAMS, HAWK, or IRIS-T air defense systems," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote in a post on X. President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X: “This is Vladimir Putin’s ‘peace plan’ — to destroy everything. This is how he wants ‘negotiations’— by terrorizing millions of people.” An industry source told Reuters that Friday's attack had targeted Ukrainian power substations and that it had included more strikes on gas infrastructure than in past assaults. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, said its thermal power plants suffered serious damage. As the attack unfolded, energy officials announced longer emergency power cuts, but they did not make clear whether that was because of new damage or whether it was a precautionary measure. Ivano-Frankivsk experienced its heaviest attack of the war. Four injuries were confirmed in Kharkiv Oblast. This was the 12th major assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this year, escalating winter hardships nationwide. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg Reuters RFE/RL Washington Post Kyiv Independent Associated Press Kyiv Independent

US announces new arms aid package for Ukraine worth $500 million. The Biden administration on Thursday announced $500 million in new military aid for Ukraine, including HIMARS and HARMs ammunition, with $5.6 billion in drawdown funds remaining. This follows a $725 million package 10 days ago. As Russian forces advance in the Donbas, Biden aims to strengthen Ukraine before Trump’s January inauguration. Reuters

US announces over $440 million in economic aid for Ukraine. The U.S. announced $440 million in economic aid for Ukraine, including funds for infrastructure, job training, agriculture, and construction projects. This support, unveiled by Richard Verma on Dec. 12, complements a new weapons package and ongoing international financial assistance as Ukraine navigates Russia's full-scale invasion and reconstruction efforts. Kyiv Independent

Analysts say Europe can compensate for Ukraine funding shortfall if the U.S. withdraws. The numbers show Europe can compensate for the withdrawal of U.S. aid to Ukraine if the political will exists. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe has committed €241 billion to Ukraine since 2022, compared to the U.S.’s €119 billion. Europe has allocated €125 billion, while the U.S. has allocated €88 billion through October. Both have provided similar amounts of military aid. Analysts believe Europe can compensate for U.S. cuts by utilizing frozen Russian assets worth €250 billion and adopting new common debt instruments. The European Union has full control over these Russian assets and redistributing them could bolster Ukraine’s defense. Alternative strategies include directly financing Ukraine’s military production and trade agreements to acquire U.S. weapons. Ukraine could lose the war if Europe didn’t step up its aid. “The danger is that we see in Kyiv in 2026 what we saw in Kabul in 2021 — a military collapse, leading to the end of Ukraine and Ukrainian democracy,” said Max Bergman, the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CNBC

US House passes 2025 defense spending bill without Ukraine lend-lease extension. The U.S. House passed an $895 billion defense bill for 2025 on Thursday, excluding provisions to extend the Ukraine lend-lease act, which expired in 2023 without ever being used. Ukrainian diplomats, led by Ambassador Oksana Markarova, continue lobbying for its reintroduction. The bill also omits funds for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. While including measures like banning recognition of Russian occupation and promoting AI weapon development with Ukraine, Republican resistance to additional aid persists. Earlier opposition delayed $61 billion in funding, and President Joe Biden’s $24 billion request was recently rejected, casting uncertainty on future U.S. support for Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Russian guided bomb attacks fall sharply after ATACMS, Storm Shadow strikes, analysts say. Russian-guided bomb attacks on Ukraine have decreased by over 50% since Kyiv began using long-range missiles, including ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, following U.S. approval in November. Daily bombings, which averaged over 100 in early November, dropped significantly after Nov. 20, now averaging 40 or fewer. Analyst Oliver Alexander attributed the decline to the relocation of Russian Su-34 aircraft over 600 kilometers from the front to evade missile strikes, disrupting maintenance and sortie rates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed for long-range strikes to target Russian airfields and counter escalating aerial attacks with cheaper, precision-guided bombs. Kyiv Independent

Russia closes in on Pokrovsk. Russian forces are now only a mile from Pokrovsk, a strategic logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, after advancing from the south, according to a pro-Russian war blogger. Ukrainian military reports indicate that Russian troops have destroyed or captured positions near the city. Ukrainian forces repelled nearly 40 assaults in the last 24 hours, according to the General Staff on Thursday, but face mounting pressure from overwhelming Russian numbers and powerful glide bombs targeting fortifications. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s military chief, acknowledged the dire situation, describing relentless Russian efforts to breach defenses and hinting at localized retreats. Pokrovsk, a vital logistics hub in Donetsk, is critical to Ukraine’s defensive operations. Its fall would threaten supply routes. Analysts warn the heavy losses suffered by Russian forces could hinder broader offensive capabilities despite recent gains. Reuters Associated Press New York Times Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine's largest steelmaker suspends operations at Pokrovsk coal mine. Metinvest, Ukraine's largest steel producer, has suspended operations at its Pischane coal plant near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, citing intensified shelling and advancing Russian forces. Core personnel and their families have been evacuated. The Pischane site, Ukraine’s largest coking coal producer, accounted for half of Metinvest's coal supply, critical for steel production. Its closure threatens to reduce Ukraine's steel output to 2-3 million metric tons, down from a projected 7.5 million. Steel production, a key industry and foreign currency source, has suffered severe losses, including the Azovstal plant in Mariupol early in Russia's full-scale invasion. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Zelensky visits artillery unit on southeast frontline. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited soldiers from the 27th Rocket Artillery Brigade on the southeastern Zaporizhzhia frontline, where Russian forces have intensified attacks. In a video shared Thursday, Zelensky was seen awarding medals and praising the HIMARS artillery system, saying, "May the HIMARS always perform flawlessly and hit the enemy targets." The visit underscores Ukraine's focus on bolstering its defenses as Russia advances in eastern regions at its fastest rate since early in the war. Kyiv continues to seek increased support from allies to strengthen its position ahead of potential negotiations. Reuters

Senior Ukraine official says Kyiv not yet ready for talks with Russia. Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, stated Kyiv is not ready for peace talks with Russia due to insufficient weapons, security guarantees, and NATO membership prospects. Speaking to Suspilne on Thursday, Yermak emphasized the need for clear assurances to prevent future Russian aggression. Zelensky, while seeking peace, insists on NATO invitations and guarantees. His recent meetings with leaders, including U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, reflect Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen its position amid ongoing territorial disputes. Reuters

Poland’s Donald Tusk hits brakes on Ukraine peacekeeping force. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed speculation about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating, “I want to cut short speculation on the presence of troops from this or that country in Ukraine after a possible peace agreement or in the case of a cease-fire.” Tusk made the remarks Thursday during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Warsaw. He clarified that such decisions “will be made in Warsaw, only in Warsaw” and emphasized that “for now, we do not plan such actions.” Macron highlighted Europe’s responsibility for regional security. PoliticoEU Reuters

Russia backs Orban's efforts for a Christmas ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Russia supports Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's proposal for a Christmas ceasefire in Ukraine and a prisoner exchange. Orban discussed the plan in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 11. Peskov confirmed Russia’s Federal Security Service shared prisoner exchange details with Hungary's embassy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Orban, accusing him of undermining Western unity and rejecting the proposal. Reuters

Putin Isn’t Ready for a Deal with Kyiv, Top Latvia Diplomat Says. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to negotiate peace in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for continued Western military aid to pressure Moscow. “Putin thinks that he’s winning the war, but he’s not,” she said, highlighting Russia’s economic decline. Braže supported President-elect Donald Trump’s stance of not abandoning Ukraine, citing his “peace through strength” concept, which she said Latvia fully supports. She also backed President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against Russian military targets, arguing it would “bring peace faster” by disrupting Russia’s ability to attack. Bloomberg

EBRD launches 110 million euro guarantee for Ukraine war-risk insurance. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) launched a €110 million guarantee on Thursday to support war-risk reinsurance for inland transport in Ukraine. Partnering with Aon, the initiative aims to insure over €1 billion worth of goods and vehicles annually, helping Ukrainian insurers manage exposure. EBRD Managing Director Francis Malige highlighted the plan’s focus on inland cargo and vehicles, noting limited capacity in Ukraine’s insurance market. Reuters

Ukraine’s reformed military procurement agency drives the country’s NATO ambitions. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry launched the State Logistics Operator (DOT) last year to reform its procurement processes and tackle corruption, a critical step toward NATO membership. DOT, led by CEO Arsen Zhumadilov, has contracted 95% of requested supplies while saving 25%. Highlighting the agency’s focus on transparency, Zhumadilov noted, “We understand that we have been on the radars of NATO... to put in place a procurement system... not prone to corruption.” DOT-Chain, an IT platform digitizing supply chains, aims to reduce delivery times fourfold. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov hailed DOT as the foundation for a new defense procurement architecture, yet progress faces resistance from entrenched bureaucratic practices. DOT’s promising results so far stand in contrast to the deeply-rooted challenges that continue to plague the tenure of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, including slow progress with restructuring the institution and ongoing allegations of corruption within lethal military procurement. Zhumadilov admitted, “We are trying to be open... but at the same time... we can preserve our own culture here.” While praised by Western diplomats, DOT’s efforts face scrutiny over Umerov’s personnel choices and decisions, including an abandoned merger with the Defense Procurement Agency. The agency’s blend of startup ethos and rigid ministry culture epitomizes Ukraine’s modernization amid war. Associated Press

Ukraine's new Ground Forces chief announces reforms focused on personnel, tech. General Mykhailo Drapatyi, Ukraine's new Ground Forces commander, announced sweeping reforms on Thursday to address personnel shortages and modernize the military. He vowed "zero tolerance for corruption" in recruitment, enhanced training aligned with battlefield demands, and integration of advanced technology. Drapatyi aims to transform the Ground Forces into an "elite" unit, prioritizing personnel support and transparent management. The reforms come as Ukraine faces slowed mobilization efforts, with U.S. officials urging a lower draft age to address manpower gaps. Drapatyi, known for liberating Mariupol in 2014, was appointed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who emphasized the importance of military transformation. Kyiv Independent

In Ukraine, long guns become desperate defenses against small drones. Ukrainian and Russian troops are adapting rifles to counter FPV drones, which often evade electronic defenses. Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses notes these efforts rely heavily on luck and skill. Russian forces are crafting DIY ammunition, while Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade tested anti-drone rounds with limited success, as most failed to disable the drones effectively. Western manufacturers, such as Sweden’s Norma, are developing specialized munitions, with one design reportedly downing six of seven drones in trials. The growing resilience of FPV drones highlights the urgent need for advanced countermeasures on the battlefield. Defense News

IAEA's 35-nation Board condemns attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors on Thursday condemned attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure critical to nuclear plant safety, without naming Russia. The emergency meeting in Vienna followed strikes on Nov. 28, disrupting power at three nuclear plants and raising meltdown risks. The resolution, supported by 22 nations, marked a divergence from prior resolutions explicitly blaming Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the strikes a “despicable escalation,” while Russia claimed they were retaliation for Ukrainian missile attacks. Reuters

Massive fire engulfs warehouse in Russia's Novosibirsk. A massive fire engulfed a 5,000-square-meter warehouse in Novosibirsk, Russia, on Friday, reportedly linked to military industries. Footage showed intense flames and structural collapse. Ukrainian official Andrii Kovalenko alleged it was a military facility, but this remains unverified. Separately, drones targeted police barracks in Grozny, Chechnya, amid Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Russian infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Dec. 12. Russia reportedly reached an informal agreement with parts of the Syrian opposition regarding control of its military bases. However, the long-term security of these bases remains uncertain. Russia is moving four ships to Syria, potentially for evacuations, reflecting caution amid instability in Syria. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian official Dmitry Medvedev, providing a platform for Kremlin demands on Ukrainian sovereignty. India continues strong economic ties with Russia, signing a $13 billion annual oil deal despite diversifying its defense partnerships. Russia’s State Duma equates violating censorship laws with extremism, advancing a pseudo-state ideology. Vladimir Putin awarded the “Golden Star” Medal to milblogger Yevgeny Poddubny, strengthening Kremlin control over military narratives. Ukrainian intelligence reportedly assassinated Russian Rosatom official Mikhail Shatsky, linked to missile and drone technology. Russian mil bloggers criticized military operational security measures as overly restrictive and counterproductive.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and in the Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukrainians now sympathize with deserters. David Patrikarakos highlights growing desertions in Ukraine's army amid widespread battle fatigue. With 6,000 soldiers absconding monthly, public sympathy for deserters like Yuri—once stigmatized—has risen. Desperate recruitment tactics, including press gangs, exacerbate tensions, while Ukraine pragmatically offers deserters amnesty and unit selection. Despite exhaustion, soldiers continue fighting, knowing time is critical as Donald Trump, pledging to end the war, prepares to take office in January. Patrikarakos argues that Ukraine and its allies must maximize battlefield gains to secure leverage for an eventual peace deal that honors Ukraine’s sacrifices. The Daily Mail

AMERICAS

Trump taps Kimberly Guilfoyle to be U.S. ambassador to Greece.  Kimberly Guilfoyle, a fierce campaigner for President-elect Donald J. Trump and fiancée of his son Donald Jr., was named Tuesday night as the next ambassador to Greece.  Trump announced his choice Tuesday night, writing on Truth Social, “Her extensive experience and leadership in law, media, and politics along with her sharp intellect make her supremely qualified to represent the United States.  Trump’s timing coincided with tabloid reports that Guilfoyle and Don Jr. had broken up and he was dating Palm Beach socialite Bettina Anderson, who helped found Project Paradise, a Florida conservation group.  New York Times 

U.S. senator recommends shooting down drones seen over New Jersey. For weeks, mysterious drones have been spotted flying at night over sensitive areas in New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region, raising concerns among lawmakers and residents alike. U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal on Thursday called for urgent investigations into the peculiar flights, suggesting that the government “take them out of the skies, especially if they’re flying over airports or military bases.” The drones, some reportedly large and flying with lights off, were detected near critical sites like the Picatinny Arsenal and Donald Trump’s Bedminster golf course. It is not believed that they belong to hobbyists. Federal agencies, including the FBI and DHS, are investigating but have not confirmed the sightings as drones, suggesting many may be misidentified manned aircraft. Officials have found no evidence of national security threats, foreign involvement, or activity in restricted airspace. State and federal lawmakers have expressed frustration over the lack of transparency, which they fear could lead to misinformation. Drone experts believe the sightings could involve larger drones of up to 6ft (1.8 meters) in diameter, possibly rogue operators, but note that all drones leave detectable signals and will likely be traced. While the situation is being monitored closely, officials urge caution against alarmism.  Associated Press The Guardian CNN Fox News 

Ontario responds to Trump’s tariff threats, could restrict electricity exports to U.S., bar American-made alcohol. Canada is preparing potential retaliatory measures if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump implements his proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports. Ontario, the country’s most populous province, is considering restricting electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota, barring U.S. companies from government procurement, and limiting purchases of American-made alcohol. Premier Doug Ford said that such actions are a last resort to protect Canadian livelihoods. Ontario powers 1.5 million U.S. homes and cutting electricity exports could significantly impact American energy costs. Canada also supplies 60% of U.S. crude oil imports and 85% of its electricity imports. While Canadian officials hope the threats are political posturing, they are still preparing for a possible trade war. Associated Press The Guardian 

China’s Xi not likely to accept invitation to Trump’s inauguration. Experts believe Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept President-elect Donald Trump’s invitation to attend his January 20 inauguration, as it poses significant risks without diplomatic precedent. Attending could undermine Xi’s image, especially given tensions over Taiwan and Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods. Chinese officials prioritize the dignity and security of their leader during foreign trips and prefer state visits with formal protocols, making the inauguration an improbable setting for Xi; one expert said that he would never permit himself to “be reduced to the status of a mere guest celebrating the triumph of a foreign leader.” Despite this, a future meeting between the two world leaders is expected, as Trump favors direct engagement with foreign leaders. However, the President-elect’s return to the White House is likely to escalate the U.S.-China rivalry, with his Cabinet appointments including several China hawks. Beijing has adopted a cautious approach, prepared to respond to any hostile U.S. policies, such as tariff hikes. Analysts note that Trump’s invitation doesn’t rule out confrontational policies, citing his past approach of blending friendly gestures with aggressive actions, such as the 2018 trade war after a cordial visit to China in 2017. Beijing will likely proceed cautiously to avoid being outmaneuvered. Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Los Angeles grand jury charges Syrian ex-prison official with torture. A former Syrian official, 72-year-old Samir Ousman Alsheikh, has been indicted by a U.S. federal grand jury in Los Angeles for torture and related crimes during his tenure as head of Damascus Central Prison (Adra) from 2005 to 2008. The U.S. Justice Department alleges Alsheikh ordered and sometimes personally inflicted severe physical and mental pain on prisoners to suppress opposition to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Alsheikh later immigrated to the U.S. in 2020 and applied for citizenship in 2023, allegedly lying about his past crimes to obtain a green card. The indictment against him includes charges of torture, conspiracy to commit torture, visa fraud, and attempted naturalization fraud. This case follows another U.S. indictment unsealed earlier this week against two former Syrian intelligence officials under Assad, accused of war crimes, including cruelty against detainees during the Syrian civil war. The conflict, which lasted 13 years, resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread destruction. Over the past weekend, Syrian rebels ousted the Assad family after more than half a century of rule. Reuters BBC New York Times Times of India VOA  

Opinion: Even if Trump ends wars, the world will still pay for them for decades. Mark Whitehouse, Bloomberg’s editorial board expert on global economics and finance, assesses Donald Trump’s pledge to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and the economic consequences if he succeeds.  So far, he writes, wars haven’t tanked the markets. Wars have winners, financially as well as on the battlefield. Bloomberg’s index of global equities is up about 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and 32% since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.  U.S. liquefied natural gas companies are doing well, due to dramatically increased sales to Europe.  Stock prices of European defense companies like Germany’s Rheinmetall AG are soaring. The U.S., with a large defense industry and energy self-sufficiency, might gain in terms of GDP.  However, Whitehouse quotes Sergei Guriev, dean of London Business School and former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as saying that “GDP is not a good measure in countries at war.  Producing tanks to get burned up in Ukraine doesn’t improve quality of life.”  Other experts explain why war production won’t lift all boats. Russia is likely to maintain its arms-making capacity, causing Europe to spend more on arms for defensive purposes. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine reconstruction will cost $500 billion.  On the other hand, Whitehouse argues, a bad peace would be even worse:   if Ukraine is controlled by Russia, Europe would be forced to buy even more arms and build more arms factories, and vastly more refugees would have to be supported. If China, inspired by Russia’s success, invaded Taiwan, the global economy would undergo extensive disruption.  U.S. military spending and the national debt would spike. Guriev told Whitehouse, “I don’t think that in the 21st century you can find a democratic politician or corporate CEO who thinks, ‘Oh, these wars are good for me.’”  Bloomberg

Haitian PM vows progress on security as nation grapples with devastating massacres against elderly, young women and children. Haitian Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé on Thursday held his first press conference since taking office in November, addressing the country’s ongoing crisis of gang violence and recent massacres. He expressed condolences to the victims of recent attacks, including the scores killed in Cité-Soleil and 20 more in Petite Rivière. Fils-Aimé called the situation unacceptable, pledged government efforts to restore security, and urged cooperation between citizens and the understaffed National Police, which is working with a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police. Fils-Aimé described Haitian police as “heroes” and announced doubled funding for their expenses. He also promised initiatives to help citizens reopen businesses affected by gang activity. Violence has claimed over 5,000 lives in Haiti this year, with gangs controlling 85% of Port-au-Prince. Associated Press

American couple shot and killed while visiting western Mexico. A California couple identified as Gloria A., 50, and Rafael C., 53, were fatally shot in the violence-stricken state of Michoacán, Mexico, on Wednesday night. The married couple, who were traveling in a pickup truck in Angamacutiro, was attacked for reasons that remain unclear. Investigations are ongoing. Gloria died at the scene, while Rafael succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. Both had ties to the area, with Gloria holding American citizenship and Rafael being U.S.-born to Mexican parents. The incident occurred shortly after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum met with security officials to address rising cartel violence, which has marred her first two months in office despite her pledge to curb crime nationwide. New York Times Reuters The Independent CNN

Mexican judge assassinated in violence-ridden city just a day after president's visit. Senior Mexican judge Edmundo Román Pinzón was assassinated in Acapulco on Wednesday afternoon, a day after President Claudia Sheinbaum held a security meeting in the city to address rising levels of violence. Pinzón, the former head of Guerrero state's highest court, was targeted and shot in his car outside a courthouse. Local authorities have launched an investigation, with Guerrero’s governor pledging justice. Acapulco, once a prime tourist destination, has suffered from cartel violence for years, driving away international visitors and gaining a darker reputation. Guerrero state has recently seen increased gang-related violence, including political assassinations; in October, the mayor of Chilpancingo was brutally murdered just days after taking office, adding to the region's instability. Sheinbaum, who became president in October, has vowed to replicate her success in reducing crime in Mexico City. However, her tenure has been overshadowed by a surge in cartel violence in hotspots like Sinaloa, despite heavy military deployments. Reuters BBC CBS Barron's El Sol de Acapulco 

Venezuela frees dozens of people detained following July's contested presidential election. Venezuelan authorities on Thursday announced the release of 103 people who were arrested during protests following the contested July 28 presidential election, in which President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner amid broad allegations of fraud. The prisoner release was part of a review ordered by Maduro to address cases of election-related violence. However, rights groups note that many detainees released earlier remain under restrictions, such as court appearances every 30 days, falling short of full freedom. Reuters Al Jazeera

EUROPE

NATO chief warns that Putin wants a long-term confrontation with Europe after Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned of Russia’s preparations for long-term confrontation with NATO and Europe, citing its aggressive actions in Ukraine and beyond. In Brussels on Thursday, Rutte emphasized the need for a “wartime mindset,” urging NATO members to exceed the 2% GDP defense spending target, with many allies already falling short. He highlighted Russia's tactics, including drone warfare, cyberattacks, and destabilization campaigns, while cautioning about future threats from both Russia and China. Amid concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s NATO stance, Rutte stressed the need to bolster defense production, warning of severe costs if deterrence fails. Associated Press Reuters BBC

Francois Bayrou named as new French prime minister. French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed centrist ally François Bayrou, 73, as the new prime minister following Michel Barnier's ousting via a no-confidence vote over contentious tax hikes in the 2025 budget. Bayrou, leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party and Pau’s mayor, faces the urgent task of passing a new budget by Dec. 21 in a deeply divided parliament. Macron’s authority has waned since snap July elections created a split legislature, with left- and far-right blocs opposing his centrist agenda. Bayrou's success hinges on bridging divides while averting a government shutdown through potential fiscal continuity measures. CNN

Inside A Secret, Expanding Russian Lab Site With A Bioweapons Legacy. A secretive Russian lab near Sergiyev Posad, linked to the Soviet-era biological weapons program, is undergoing significant expansion, according to RFE/RL. Newly analyzed footage shows facilities typical of high-security biolabs handling deadly pathogens like smallpox. U.S. intelligence and arms control reports allege Russia maintains an offensive biological weapons program in violation of international treaties. Experts believe the lab’s upgrades support this claim, citing evidence of aerosolized pathogen research. Western inspections of such facilities ceased in the 1990s, fueling concerns of continued bioweapons development. Russia denies accusations, presenting the site as part of its biological defense system. RFE/RL

ANALYSIS–Fall of Syrian Regime Exposes Limits of Russia’s Global Ambitions. The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime has spotlighted the limits of Russia’s global ambitions as the Kremlin prioritizes its war on Ukraine. Russia’s Syrian bases, pivotal for projecting influence in the Middle East and Africa, now face uncertain futures. “Returning to an international level…is no longer worth it,” wrote Kremlin advisor Fyodor Lukyanov, urging a regional focus. Bashar al-Assad’s fall shakes Russia’s credibility among African allies who relied on Moscow’s support. “If you’re an African leader relying on Russian muscle to stay in power, the fall of Assad’s Syria is an important cautionary tale,” said Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Meanwhile, financial strains from the war in Ukraine have curtailed Arctic projects and defense exports, ceding ground to China in key areas. “If the Syria case means anything, it only increases the importance of Ukraine to Putin,” observed analyst Oleg Ignatov. Wall Street Journal

Tracking Putin’s Most Feared Secret Agency—From Inside a Russian Prison and Beyond.The Wall Street Journal reveals the extensive power of Russia’s Department for Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO), an elite spy unit central to Vladimir Putin’s regime. Led by Lt. Gen. Dmitry Minaev, DKRO orchestrates internal repression and external espionage, symbolizing what a U.N. rapporteur called “unprecedented political persecution.” DKRO is responsible for arresting Americans like journalist Evan Gershkovich and basketball star Brittney Griner as bargaining chips, as well as surveilling diplomats and recruiting spies. Minaev, described by intelligence officials as “frighteningly perceptive,” personally oversees arrests and exchanges, including the August 2024 prisoner swap involving Gershkovich. The unit’s roots trace back to Joseph Stalin-era counterintelligence, evolving into Putin’s most potent tool for consolidating power. DKRO’s influence extends abroad, conducting sabotage, espionage, and kidnappings in Eastern Europe, and even attempting assassinations in Ukraine. Domestically, it leads a wave of arrests for treason and espionage, solidifying its role as the “axle” of Russia’s authoritarian system. Wall Street Journal

Poland wants more NATO members to help police the Baltic Sea. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz called for greater NATO involvement in Baltic Sea policing, including navies from outside the region, citing potential Russian threats. He urged the European Union to spend at least €100 billion on defense and emphasized Europe’s need to bolster self-defense to retain U.S. support. While Norway deployed F-35s to Poland, conditions for sending Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine remain unmet. Poland will push for expanded NATO engagement at the next summit in The Hague. Reuters

Defense firms follow Lithuania’s allure of making ammo sans red tape. Lithuania is attracting major defense firms by simplifying regulations for establishing ammunition plants. Germany's Rheinmetall is building a 155mm artillery ammunition facility in Baisogala, set to start in 2026, while Northrop Grumman will produce 30mm medium caliber rounds in Vilnius. Other companies, including a Ukrainian firm, plan to collaborate on weapons, drones, and explosives production. Lithuania’s defense partnerships aim to bolster regional security and aid Ukraine, with the government emphasizing creative approaches to help Ukraine manufacture its own weapons. Defense News

Who is Friedrich Merz, the veteran politician tipped to be Germany's next chancellor? Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is a strong contender for chancellor, leading polls ahead of February’s election. A staunch supporter of Ukraine, Merz recently criticized Olaf Scholz for withholding Taurus long-range missiles, arguing Ukraine needs the capability to strike Russian military targets. Known for his tactical acumen, Merz orchestrated the collapse of Scholz’s government via a legal budget challenge. Merz focuses on tax cuts, deregulation, and strengthening Germany’s defense and economic policies. Reuters

Finland blocks more Russian property acquisitions. Finland's defense ministry blocked seven real estate transactions involving Russian buyers, citing national security risks. The properties included one in Pargas and five in Kokemaki. Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen stressed rigorous investigation of non-EU buyers amid heightened security concerns following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Helsinki has restricted Russian property acquisitions near strategic sites and proposed broader bans, reflecting strained relations with Moscow and Finland’s shift toward NATO after decades of non-alignment. Reuters

Russia tells its citizens: avoid travel to the West. Russia warned its citizens to avoid travel to the U.S., Canada, and most European Union countries, citing risks of being "hunted" by U.S. authorities amid escalating tensions. The Kremlin accused President Joe Biden of intensifying confrontation ahead of Donald Trump’s return. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at a historic low, worsened by mutual accusations of wrongful imprisonments, the Ukraine war, and Western support for Kyiv. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed openness to another prisoner swap. Reuters

Belarusian authorities arrest 7 journalists who worked for an independent newspaper. Belarusian authorities arrested seven journalists from the independent Intex-Press online newspaper in Baranavichy, charging them with “supporting extremist activities.” The Belarusian Association of Journalists called it the largest crackdown on a single outlet in a year, signaling heightened repression ahead of January’s presidential election. “It looks like the authorities have decided to arrest all journalists they suspect of being disloyal,” said association leader Andrei Bastunets. Belarus now detains 42 journalists and holds 1,300 political prisoners. President Alexander Lukashenko, reliant on Kremlin support, continues his crackdown on dissent, silencing critical voices and targeting independent media declared “extremist.” Associated Press Euronews 

US will prohibit visas for Georgian officials for 'undermining democracy.'  The U.S. State Department announced Thursday visa bans for around 20 Georgian officials, including ministers and security personnel, for "undermining democracy" amid escalating protests in Georgia. The demonstrations erupted after the ruling Georgian Dream party suspended European Union accession talks, prompting widespread arrests, violence, and criticism. The U.S. condemned Georgian Dream’s “brutal and unjustified violence” against protesters, media, and activists, accusing it of abandoning Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The State Department is preparing further measures, including sanctions. Baltic countries and Ukraine have also sanctioned Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili for his role in suppressing dissent. Georgian Dream declared victory in the October parliamentary elections, a win broadly by domestic opposition and international observers. It has been accused of democratic backsliding and dragging Georgia into the Kremlin's orbit. Reuters Kyiv Independent U.S. Department of State   

UK leader Starmer invited to EU meeting in latest sign of post-Brexit thaw. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will attend a meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels in February, the first such visit since Brexit, to strengthen UK-EU defense ties amid rising global tensions. Starmer emphasized the need for “closer collaboration between like-minded partners” during talks with European Council President António Costa. The meeting will explore enhanced defense cooperation, including joint military exercises and weapon procurement, as both sides anticipate shifts in U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump. A joint statement affirmed intentions to reset relations, with additional summits planned to address trade and security. Costa called the collaboration vital in “volatile times.” Bloomberg Associated Press Financial Times    

2 men deny charges of helping Hong Kong gather intelligence in UK. Chung Biu Yuen and Chi Leung Peter Wai pleaded not guilty in London to charges of aiding Hong Kong intelligence under the UK’s National Security Act. Yuen, a former office manager for Hong Kong's trade office, and Wai, a former UK Border Force officer, are accused of surveillance and unauthorized database use. Their trial begins on March 10. A third suspect, Matthew Trickett, died in May, with authorities ruling his death non-suspicious. Hong Kong was under British rule for 156 years before reverting to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. There have been growing tensions between the two nations over a national security crackdown since sometimes violent pro-democracy protests swept the territory in 2019. Associated Press Reuters The Independent  

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump Team considering airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program.  President-elect Donald Trump and his team are discussing options for stopping Iran’s nuclear weapon program, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.  One option under study is airstrikes, and, the Journal reported, it is  being taken more seriously now that Iran’s ally, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, has fallen  and Israel has all but obliterated the leadership of Iran’s proxies Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran’s failed air war with Israel has left it weakened and led to speculation that Tehran will react by hastening its development of a nuclear weapon.  Trump has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he worries that Iran will achieve a nuclear bomb during his term.  These discussions are early and tentative. Trump has made clear that does not want to start a war, especially if it risks involvement of U.S. troops on the ground.  Wall Street Journal 

US sees Assad's fall as a chance to destroy Syria's chemical arsenal 'once and for all.’ The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) urged Syria's new leadership to grant access for investigating chemical weapons use that killed and injured thousands during the civil war. OPCW chief Fernando Arias highlighted the chance to clarify the extent of Syria’s stockpiles, noting that victims “deserve that perpetrators... be brought to justice.” U.S. Ambassador Nicole Shampaine called Assad’s fall an “extraordinary chance” to eliminate banned munitions. "We want to finish the job and it's really an opportunity for Syria's new leadership to work with the international community, work with the OPCW to get the job done once and for all," Shampaine said. Despite past denials by Assad and Russia, investigations identified Syrian forces using chemical weapons nine times. Germany’s ambassador stressed the urgency of securing stockpiles, saying, “Now is the opportunity to verifiably destroy the remnants of Assad’s program.” Reuters Associated Press Washington Post  

Syrian rebel leader, after Assad's ouster, tightens his grip on the state. Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has swiftly consolidated power in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, deploying police, forming an interim government, and meeting foreign envoys. Sharaa pledged to dissolve Assad's security forces, close prisons, and pursue justice for victims. However, concerns over inclusivity have emerged, with HTS predominantly appointing figures from its Idlib administration. Interim Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, who will govern until March, emphasized restoring security, repatriating refugees, and drafting a new constitution but offered few specifics on governance structure or inclusivity. Critics warn of the risk of authoritarianism in "Islamic garb" if broader representation is neglected. Reuters

Russia Nears Deal With New Syria Leaders to Keep Army Bases. Russia is reportedly nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to retain its military bases at Tartus and Khmeimim, according to “people with knowledge of the matter.”. The bases are critical for Moscow’s regional strategy and counterterrorism efforts. Talks involve Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that ousted Bashar al-Assad, with whom Russia has reached an informal understanding to maintain its presence. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov emphasized the importance of these bases in combating ISIS remnants. Western officials cautiously support the arrangement to prevent a resurgence of extremism as Russia navigates the uncertainty following Assad’s overthrow and its now-void 2017 base leases. Bloomberg Reuters 

Blinken meets Erdogan as forces backed by US, Turkey clash in Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara to discuss clashes between U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and Turkey-backed rebels in northern Syria. Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s commitment to national security and its stance against groups it considers terrorist, including the PKK. Blinken stressed the importance of avoiding further conflict during Syria’s political transition and reaffirmed the U.S. goal of preventing an ISIS resurgence. Talks also addressed Turkey’s recent advances in Manbij and the targeting of Kurdish forces. Blinken will meet Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Friday to continue discussing Syria’s stability and inclusive governance. Reuters

[shortcode-ExpertComment comment="Their plans, intentions, and goals with Damascus remain deeply intertwined with the PKK and its terrorist network in Syria… The authorized US relationship with the PKK - whose sole mission is to attack and undermine Turkey - is unsustainable, indefensible, a violation of US law, and an immutable thorn in bilateral US-Turkish relations. Ten years of “YPG" sophistry and stalemate diplomacy with Russia and Iran in Syria are putting the entire region at risk of miscalculation, Russian and Iranian overreach, and sudden escalation." text-source="The Cipher Brief " expert-slug="paula-doyle" expert-id="2270274929"]

Pro-Assad Syrians flee to Lebanon to escape reprisals as interim government takes shape. Following Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow on Sunday, thousands of pro-Assad Syrians, predominantly Alawites, have fled to Lebanon, fearing reprisals from the transitional government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Over 50,000 refugees reportedly entered Lebanon, mostly illegally, straining a country already hosting over a million Syrians. Meanwhile, a reverse flow has emerged, with anti-Assad Syrians cautiously returning home to escape Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and to rebuild under the new government. However, many remain hesitant, awaiting greater stability and governance. This two-way movement highlights Syria's ongoing turmoil as both pro- and anti-Assad factions adjust to a new political reality. Globe and Mail CNN

ANALYSIS–How Assad's army collapsed in Syria: demoralized conscripts, absent allies. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s army in Syria was marked by desertions, corruption, and the withdrawal of critical allies like Iran and Hezbollah. Conscript Farhan al-Khouli described abandoning his post during the rebels’ Nov. 27 offensive, saying, “When they saw one person flee, everyone started to toss their weapons and run.” Syrian forces were left undermanned and demoralized, with bribes rampant and resources stolen. The departure of Iranian advisors and Hezbollah in response to escalating Israeli strikes and other conflicts further weakened command structures. As one officer put it, “We were living in a scary society. We were afraid to say a word.” A military intelligence document revealed panic, with orders ignored and warnings of punishment proving ineffective. Rebel forces, unified under a centralized command, capitalized on the disarray. An Iraqi military adviser concluded, “The battle for Syria was lost from day one,” underscoring the deep-rooted fragility of Assad’s regime. Reuters

Assad's final hours in Syria: Deception, despair and flight. Bashar al-Assad fled Syria on Dec. 8 as rebels stormed Damascus, marking the end of his 24-year rule and his family's half-century dominance. Using deception, Assad misled aides and military leaders, assuring them of imminent Russian support, while secretly planning his escape. "He didn’t even rally his own troops," noted Nadim Houri of the Arab Reform Initiative. Russia orchestrated his exit, coordinating with Qatar, Turkey, and rebels to secure his safe passage. Assad’s family had already reached Moscow, where he sought asylum. His hasty departure was revealed through abandoned belongings at the presidential palace, highlighting his abrupt fall. Reuters

American jailed for months in Syria released by rebels, U.S. promises to bring him home. Travis Timmerman, a 29-year-old American detained for seven months in an infamous Syrian prison, was released on Monday following the overthrow of Bashar Assad's regime. Timmerman had traveled to Syria on a Christian pilgrimage this year and was held on suspicion of being a spy. He was freed by rebel forces from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who stormed Damascus this week and toppled Assad's 54-year family rule. Timmerman described his captivity as harsh but noted he was not physically abused, unlike many others in the facility. His release is part of a broader effort by the rebels to free detainees and cooperate with the U.S. on locating missing Americans, including journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012. Timmerman is recovering in Damascus while arrangements are made to return him to U.S. authorities. The case highlights ongoing efforts by American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to address the fates of U.S. nationals detained or missing in Syria. President Joe Biden has prioritized securing Tice’s release, though no direct evidence of his status has surfaced. Timmerman's liberation offers a glimmer of hope amid complex and longstanding challenges in war-torn Syria. Associated Press Reuters CNN Times of India CBS  

Unauthorized bitcoin mining could be the cause of Iran’s rolling blackouts. Iran suffered rolling power blackouts in October and November, outages which disrupted daily life and raised suspicions that unlicensed cryptocurrency mining is involved. These bitcoin farms consume vast amounts of electricity and have likely contributed to the outages. The rise in bitcoin’s value has spurred a surge in mining activity, with subsidized electricity and unmetered access in some areas enabling the proliferation of clandestine mining operations. Officials estimate that over 230,000 unlicensed devices are consuming power equivalent to an entire province’s needs. Iran’s energy challenges are compounded by aging infrastructure, droughts that affect hydroelectric dams, and depleted fuel reserves. Critics allege that the government has sold off fuel to address budget shortfalls caused by international sanctions. Despite efforts to curb high-polluting fuel use, electricity demand remains high, even as winter heating has yet to peak. The government has targeted unlicensed miners, offering financial rewards for reporting them, while concerns grow over potential ties between bitcoin mining and Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which may use cryptocurrency to finance militant allies in the region. The nation’s reliance on bitcoin is seen as a strategy to counter sanctions, though experts warn of its vulnerabilities to international scrutiny and restrictions. Associated Press  

ASIA & OCEANIA

South Korean opposition figure says impeaching Yoon is the best, swiftest way to restore order. South Korea’s opposition head Lee Jae-myung on Friday asserted that the best way for the nation to move on from its political turmoil and restore order is to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, who thrust the country into chaos with his brief imposition of martial law on December 3. The move has triggered widespread calls for the embattled leader’s impeachment, with the opposition accusing him of breaking the law and endangering democracy. Lee argued that removing Yoon “is the fastest and the most [effective] way to end the confusion,” urging ruling party members to vote in favor of impeachment. A second parliamentary vote on impeachment is planned for Saturday, with the opposition gaining support from members of Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP), thereby nearing the threshold needed to send the case to the Constitutional Court. Yoon, however, has vowed to fight the impeachment efforts, blaming the opposition for political paralysis and alleging, without evidence, that North Korean hackers compromised the April parliamentary elections. The National Election Commission has denied these claims, citing the use of paper ballots and dismissing irregularity accusations as baseless. Reuters Deutsche Welle VOA Korea Times 

China says it will not be soft on Taiwan independence, declines to confirm recent drills. A Chinese defense ministry spokesperson on Friday commented on Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's recent U.S. stopovers, asserting that the PLA would not be “absent” or “soft” in the struggle against independence. The spokesperson defended Beijing’s military activities around Taiwan, arguing that decisions on drills are based on China's own needs and situation. The ministry did not, however, openly acknowledge the most recent exercises around the self-governing island, with the spokesperson instead quoting a famous line from “The Art of War,” an ancient Chinese text by military strategist Sun Tzu. It also condemned reliance on "foreign forces to seek independence,” indirectly criticizing the U.S. for its engagements with Taipei. Taiwan's defense ministry had activated an emergency response earlier in the week due to increased Chinese military activity near the island and in the broader region but has since deactivated its response as tensions eased. The number of Chinese military aircraft and coast guard ships near Taiwan has significantly decreased in recent days. Reuters Reuters Associated Press 

China claims U.S. is backing the Philippines as it provokes ‘trouble' in South China Sea. A spokesperson for China's defense ministry on Friday accused the Philippines of provoking tensions in the South China Sea with Washington’s “support and solicitation,” following recent confrontations between the two nations over disputed territories. Beijing criticized Manila’s past actions near the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, which China claims as its own. The dispute intensified last week after Chinese coast guard vessels allegedly fired water cannons and collided with a Philippine boat delivering supplies to Filipino fishermen near the Scarborough Shoal. China defended its actions, claiming the Philippine ships had entered its waters illegally, while Manila resolutely rejected Beijing’s claims as baseless. The South China Sea, a strategic and resource-rich waterway claimed in parts by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, remains a flashpoint. Efforts by Southeast Asian nations to establish a code of conduct with China based on international law have yet to succeed, as tensions over exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and sovereignty persist. Reuters 

Thousands attend funeral of Khalil Haqqani, killed by an Islamic State suicide bomber.  Thousands of people attended the funeral on Thursday of Taliban minister Khalil Haqqani, a member of the powerful and feared Haqqani clan, who was killed Wednesday in a suicide bombing in Kabul claimed by the Islamic State group. Haqqani was the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, and the leader of the clan and also the acting interior minister.  Both Sirajuddin and Khalil were charged with terrorism in the U.S., and the FBI posted a $10 million reward leading to their arrest.  While the Taliban and the IS have been rivals for more than a decade the assassination of  Khalil Haqqani, minister for refugees and repatriation, was the most significant IS attack since the Taliban took power in 2021. At the funeral in Paktia, Sirajuddin Haqqani led prayers. The U.N. mission in Afghanistan condemned the attack. “There can be no place for terrorism in the quest for stability,” the mission said on X. Associated Press 

AFRICA

Niger’s ruling junta suspends BBC for allegedly ‘spreading false news.’ Niger’s ruling junta has suspended the BBC for three months, accusing it of spreading false information that undermines social stability and troop morale. The suspension follows the BBC’s coverage on Wednesday of an alleged extremist attack near the Burkina Faso border that reportedly killed over 90 soldiers and 40 civilians, which Niger’s authorities denied. The junta, which took power in a coup in 2023, has increasingly cracked down on media, banning French broadcasters RFI and France 24 and limiting dissent. Niger’s neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali, also under military rule, have similarly censored media amid worsening security situations in the Sahel region, which is plagued by jihadi insurgencies. Analysts say attacks and civilian casualties have surged since the juntas took control, with media restrictions making it harder to report on government actions or security developments. Associated Press France 24 The Independent Barron's  

Inside Nigeria’s lithium boom, where children are forced to work and many mines are illegal. In Nigeria’s Pasali community, located in Nasarawa state, 6-year-old Juliet Samaniya works in dangerous, illegal lithium mines instead of attending school, earning less than $1 a day to help support her family. The area, transformed by the global demand for lithium used in clean energy batteries, exploits child labor as families struggle with poverty, lack of education access, and weak enforcement of labor laws. Children, including orphans, work long hours in hazardous conditions, exposed to toxic dust and deadly mining risks. According to estimations by the International Labour Organization, more than 1 million children worldwide work in mines and quarries, many of them in Africa. Illegal mining dominates Nigeria’s mineral-rich regions, with Chinese companies often linked to unregulated operations. Despite laws against child labor and efforts like mining marshals, enforcement is limited, and corruption among officials enables the exploitation. Lithium buyers, including Chinese firms, seldom question the conditions under which the minerals are extracted. Efforts to reform mining laws and improve education access are ongoing, but activists argue more must be done to protect children and ensure responsible practices in the supply chain. Juliet’s mother, Abigail, hopes for a better future for her daughter, away from the mines and in school. Associated Press

Somaliland’s new president is sworn in after peaceful democratic election. Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia, inaugurated its new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, on Thursday, following his victory in the November election. Abdullahi, a former opposition leader, vowed to prioritize international recognition for Somaliland, which has operated independently for over 30 years but remains unrecognized globally. He also pledged to review controversial agreements, such as a recent land lease deal with Ethiopia that drew criticism for lack of transparency and sparked tensions with Mogadishu. Somaliland is known for its stability and democratic processes, contrasting sharply with Somalia's recurrent insecurity. Abdullahi, 69, secured over 50% of the votes in a peaceful election praised for high voter turnout. The region faces challenges, including internal conflict in its Sool region and advancing its quest for sovereignty on the international stage. U.S. Ambassador Richard H. Riley commended Somaliland’s democratic example and encouraged continued collaboration. Associated Press  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Russia teams up with BRICS to create AI alliance, Putin says. Russia aims to boost its global AI presence by 2030, leveraging partnerships with BRICS nations and focusing on generative AI models despite Western sanctions. President Vladimir Putin announced the AI Alliance Network at the AI Journey conference, saying, “Russia must participate on equal terms in the global race.” Alexander Vedyakhin, Sberbank’s first deputy CEO, highlighted Russia’s talent, stating, “We are compensating for sanctions with our talented scientists.” He emphasized national language models as vital for “technological sovereignty,” critiquing Western models’ cultural missteps. While Russia lags behind the U.S. and China, Vedyakhin expressed confidence in improvement through supportive regulation and experimentation. Reuters Reuters

European Central Bank cuts rates a quarter point as concerns mount over withering growth, Trump trade policies. The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, this time by 0.25 percentage points, from 3.25% to 3%, in response to lukewarm economic growth and global uncertainties, including potential U.S. trade tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency and political instability in Europe. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation, which has fallen from 10.6% in late 2022 to 2.3%, is under control, allowing room for rate cuts to support economic recovery. The eurozone is expected to grow by only 0.8% in 2024, with concerns over slowing post-pandemic recovery, export risks from trade conflicts, and domestic political confusion in France and Germany. Paris is currently without a functioning government, while Berlin faces elections and prolonged coalition talks, leaving the eurozone’s two largest economies politically unsettled. Business and investor confidence has weakened, as indicated by declining purchasing manager and investor sentiment indices. The economic outlook is further strained by major job cuts announced by prominent firms in Germany, including Volkswagen, Bosch, and ThyssenKrupp. Lower ECB rates aim to stimulate borrowing and investment but face challenges from political and global trade uncertainties. Financial Times Associated Press Reuters The Guardian  

North Koreans indicted in plot using IT workers to gain funds for weapons programs. Fourteen North Korean citizens have been indicted in the U.S. for a scheme involving thousands of IT workers who used false identities to secure remote jobs with American companies. The wages, totaling over $88 million, were funneled to North Korea to fund its ballistic missile and weapons programs. The workers also engaged in identity theft and extortion, in addition to stealing sensitive information from U.S. companies. The plot involved using stolen identities, hiring Americans to pose in interviews, or using U.S. Wi-Fi connections. Most of the accused are believed to be in North Korea, making prosecution challenging. The U.S. State Department has offered a $5 million reward for information leading to their capture. Federal authorities warned that companies hiring remote IT workers may have unknowingly employed North Koreans working for the isolated regime. The FBI urged companies to thoroughly vet remote hires and require regular on-camera appearances. This case is part of broader efforts to disrupt Pyongyang's illicit activities aimed at funding its nuclear weapons program. Previous warnings and investigations have highlighted the regime's focus on using IT skills to generate revenue and evade sanctions. Associated Press BBC Reuters The Record

North Korean hackers responsible for $50 million crypto heist of Radiant Capital. Cybersecurity firm Mandiant has reported that North Korean hackers from the group AppleJeus (or Citrine Sleet) stole over $50 million from the cryptocurrency platform Radiant Capital by using a malware-laced PDF. The attack began on September 11, when hackers posed as a former contractor and sent a Telegram message containing a link to a ZIP file with advanced INLETDRIFT malware, a backdoor which targeted macOS devices. The malware enabled the hackers to seamlessly manipulate transactions, bypassing standard security checks and appearing benign during reviews. The attackers demonstrated advanced technical skills, removing traces of their activity after the heist. Radiant Capital is working with U.S. law enforcement to recover the stolen assets. The incident sheds light on the growing sophistication of North Korean hacking groups, which have targeted the cryptocurrency industry for years as a major revenue source, generating $3 billion from such attacks since 2017. AppleJeus has been linked to similar attacks since 2018, with targets in cryptocurrency and fintech industries. Tech companies like Microsoft and Google have warned about these exploits, emphasizing the need for enhanced security measures in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Radiant Capital has called for stronger, device-level transparency to counteract these increasingly advanced threats. The Record SecurityWeek BleepingComputer  

Russian-state backed hackers using existing cybercrime tools to target Ukrainian military devices. Kremlin-backed hacking group Secret Blizzard, also known as Turla, has been targeting the Ukrainian military by hijacking tools and infrastructure from Russian cybercriminals, according to a recent Microsoft report. This unconventional tactic diversifies attack methods and complicates attribution, enabling the group to obscure its involvement by embedding itself in the operations of other threat actors. In two recent campaigns, Secret Blizzard repurposed malware associated with Russian cybercrime groups. Between March and April, it used the Amadey malware, typically deployed by Storm-1919, to gather system information and deploy the Tavdig backdoor for surveillance on Ukrainian military devices, including those using Starlink internet services. In January, the group used Storm-1837’s infrastructure to install Tavdig and KazuarV2 backdoors on a Ukrainian target, aimed at long-term intelligence collection and data exfiltration. Secret Blizzard, which has been linked to Russia’s FSB, has a history of espionage targeting government, defense, and diplomatic entities worldwide, focusing on politically significant and sensitive information. Its latest operations in Ukraine highlight its adaptability and strategic use of cybercriminal tools to further Russian state interests. The success of these campaigns and the data obtained remain unclear. The Record  

Washington raises tariffs on imports of Chinese polysilicon, solar wafers, polysilicon and tungsten products. The Biden administration intends to hike tariffs on Chinese solar wafers, polysilicon, and certain tungsten products starting January 1, in an effort to protect U.S. clean energy businesses and reduce reliance on China. Solar wafer and polysilicon tariffs will increase from 25% to 50%, while tungsten tariffs will rise from zero to 25%. The decision follows a review of Chinese trade practices and complements domestic investments in clean energy. These measures reflect mounting trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Recent actions include U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technology and China's countermeasures banning critical mineral exports like gallium and graphite. Tungsten, a strategically important metal, is another area where analysts expect Beijing may retaliate. The Asian giant dominates the global solar panel supply chain, controlling over 80% of production, which has driven down costs but raised concerns about overdependence. The U.S. accuses China of unfair subsidies and technology transfer pressures, giving its exporters a competitive advantage. The Biden administration, while maintaining some Trump-era tariffs, adopts a more targeted approach to address these trade issues and bolster American industries. Associated Press South China Morning Post  

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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