10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, September 6, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Commerce Secretary Says China Tariffs Won’t Change Till Review Completed. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Tuesday that she does not expect the Biden administration to revise any U.S. tariffs on China imposed during the Trump administration until the U.S. Trade Representative Office finishes an ongoing review. She added that the Biden administration thinks the tariffs “could have been much more strategic” which is why it is undertaking the four-year review to evaluate their effectiveness, though she added that U.S. firms “need a level playing field.” The tariffs on imports from China, imposed in 2018 and 2019, valued at around $370 billion at the time and were passed after a “Section 301” investigation found China was misappropriating U.S. intellectual property and coercing U.S. companies to transfer sensitive technology. China’s commerce minister said last week in a meeting with Raimondo that the tariffs are “discriminatory” and called for Chinese companies investing in the U.S. to be given “equal treatment.” Reuters
Western Europe
UK to Declare Russia's Wagner Group a Terrorist Organization. The UK’s government plans to declare Russia’s Wagner Group as a terrorist organization since it represents a “threat to global security” due to activities in Ukraine and Africa. The measure will make it illegal to support or be a member of the group. Those who commit a proscription offense could face 14 years in prison or a fine of up to £5,000. Parliament is also set to lay a draft order that will permit the group’s assets to be considered terrorist property and seized. The British home secretary, Suella Braverman, asserted that Wagner is "violent and destructive... a military tool of Vladimir Putin's Russia.” She added that the group’s “continuing destabilizing activities only continue to serve the Kremlin's political goals." Wagner troops have been accused of human rights abuses, such as torture and executions, in both Ukraine and Africa, and they have performed operations in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Syria. BBC Reuters Al Jazeera
Central and Eastern Europe
Blinken Travels to Kyiv, Expected to Announce $1 Billion in Military Aid. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Wednesday for a two-day visit to demonstrate support as the counteroffensive continues. A top State Department official told reporters that Blinken, the first senior US authority to make a trip to Kyiv since the counteroffensive started in June, will likely reveal a new package of US military aid worth more than $1 billion during his visit. Blinken began his trip with a meeting with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, in which he asserted that Washington seeks to ensure that Ukraine has a “strong deterrent” and has what it needs to succeed both in its counteroffensive and long term. He added that the U.S. will work with partners as Ukraine seeks to “rebuild a strong economy, strong democracy." Blinken is also expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit. Speaking about the Blinken trip, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow believed that the U.S. intends to continue funding the Ukrainian military "to wage this war to the last Ukrainian.” Separately, the State Department said Blinken spoke with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen while on the train to Kyiv, thanking Denmark for its leadership in the F-16 fighter jet coalition that is working to get the warplanes to Ukraine. Reuters Al Jazeera New York Times CNN Kyiv Independent
Ukrainian Military Reports Russian Missile Assault on Kyiv and Odesa. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia launched an air assault on the capital of Kyiv and the southern region of Odesa on Wednesday, resulting in the death of a civilian and damage to a Danube River port. Regional governor Oleh Kiper said that the Odesa attack damaged multiple agricultural and port installations and started several fires in the Izmail district, a vital grain exporting center on the Danube. The APK-Inform agriculture consultancy added that the Kilia river port, which concentrates on dry cargo, was attacked for the first time. Ukraine's Air Force reported that air defense systems downed 23 out of the 33 air weapons that Russia fired overnight, which the air force said included seven cruise missiles, 25 Iranian-made Shahed drones, and one Iskander ballistic missile. Officials said that all the missiles launched at Kyiv were shot down. Authorities said that falling debris struck and damaged private vehicles, the facades of buildings, a police office, and windows in a medical facility in the capital, though there were no casualties. Moscow has not yet commented on the reported attack. Reuters Al Jazeera
Russian Missile Strike Kills 16 in Donetsk. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said a Russian missile hit a market in the town of Kostiantynivka in the eastern Donetsk region, killing at least 16 people and injuring at least 20 others. Reports from the scene said a Russian S-300 missile appears to have been used in the attack which hit the center of the town. Kostiantynivka is close to the front around Bakhmut and is frequently crowded with Ukrainian military personnel. Shymyhal responded to the attack by calling Russian forces “terrorists who will not be forgiven and will not be left in peace.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky added that the attack was “utter inhumanity” and said the “Russian evil must be defeated as soon as possible.” CNN
Russian-Appointed Official Acknowledges ‘Tactical’ Retreat from Robotyne. Yevgeny Balitsky, the top Russian-appointed official in occupied Zaporizhzhia, acknowledged Russia’s withdrawal from the village of Robotyne, saying that Russian forces “tactically abandoned” the settlement. He said Russian troops had “no way to completely dig in” at the village so they “moved off into the hills.” His comments mark the first time Russia has acknowledged the loss of Robotyne, which Ukraine said it recaptured on August 28. Russia’s defense ministry said Tuesday that it repelled two Ukrainian attacks near the town. Reuters Newsweek
Russia Claims 66,000 Ukrainian Troops Killed Since Start of Counteroffensive. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on Tuesday that Ukraine has lost 66,000 soldiers and 7,600 weapons systems since the start of its counteroffensive. Speaking at a meeting of military leaders, Shoigu added that Ukrainian forces have achieved goals in “none of the [attack] directions,” dismissing the counteroffensive as a failure. He noted that “the most tense situation” is in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where he claimed Ukraine is now sending reserve brigades trained by Western partners. Shoigu’s comments, which could not be independently verified, echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s earlier remarks on Monday when he said the counteroffensive “has failed, not stalled” and that he hopes “it will remain this way.” Shoigu and Putin’s comments conflict with accounts of Ukrainian progress on the front. The Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday that geolocated footage shows Ukrainian light infantry has advanced beyond some Russian anti-tank trenches and minefields in Zaporizhzhia, though it is unclear if the defenses have been fully breached since Ukrainian heavy armor has yet to be seen in the area. The Ukrainian military says it has managed to push through the first southern line of defenses but now faces entrenched fortifications and minefields. In the east, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said troops continue to advance around Bakhmut, namely around the village of Klishchivka to the city’s south. Analysts added that the transfer of Russian forces from eastern Ukraine to the southern front may enable Ukrainian counterattacks of opportunity. Al Jazeera Reuters Institute for the Study of War South China Morning Post
Video Footage Purportedly Shows Destroyed Challenger 2 in Ukraine. Video footage posted on social media and reportedly filmed close to the village of Robotyne in southern Ukraine appears to show what a Western defense source said is a destroyed Challenger 2 tank, given to Kyiv by the UK. The source, who is familiar with battlefield knowledge, said the armored tank was being used in Ukraine’s counteroffensive and that the tank’s crew of four appears to have “survived the initial attack on the vehicle.” The tank was allegedly struck by a Russian Lancet loitering drone. The source added that “it’s a testament to the quality and the level of these capabilities, compared to Soviet equipment Ukraine was using before.” Neither the BBC nor CNN could confirm where exactly the video was recorded and when. CNN BBC
Armenia Announces Joint Exercises with U.S. Armenia announced on Wednesday that it plans on hosting joint military exercises with the U.S. on September 11 to 20. The Armenian Defense Ministry said the "Eagle Partner 2023” drills will prepare its troops to engage in international peacekeeping missions. An American military spokesperson said that 85 US soldiers and 175 Armenians will take part in the exercises without the use of heavy weaponry. He added that the Americans, including some members of the Kansas National Guard, which has had a two-decade training partnership with Armenia, would employ rifles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the drills by saying, "such news causes concern, especially in the current situation.” Russia, which still maintains a peacekeeping mission in the region, has a military base in Armenia. Reuters Al Jazeera
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Premier Cautions Against ‘New Cold War’. China’s Premier Li Qiang on Wednesday said the world must avoid “a new cold war” when addressing conflicts between nations. Speaking at the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, Li asserted that countries must "appropriately handle differences and disputes” and “oppose taking sides” or “bloc confrontation.” ASEAN is hosting additional talks with Li, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, and other leaders of partner nations such as Japan, Australia, India, and South Korea. High on the list of issues to discuss at the gathering is tensions in the South China Sea, with a focus on China’s provocative actions in the disputed waterway. Reuters Wall Street Journal
South Korea’s Yoon Calls for End to Military Cooperation With North Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Wednesday that attempts at military cooperation with North Korea damage international peace and must immediately stop. Yoon’s comment came at the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia. While he did not elaborate, his remark came amid reports that Russia is pursuing an arms deal with North Korea and that the North’s leader Kim Jong Un is planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia soon. Pyongyang and Moscow have denied they are in arms negotiations. The U.S. has also called for the reported talks on a weapons deal to end. U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that if North Korea sends weapons to Russia it will “pay a price” in the international community. He added that the reported talks show sanctions targeting Russia’s defense industrial base are working since Moscow is forced to look “to whatever source they can find” for military supplies. Reuters Al Jazeera CNN Nikkei Asia
Main Afghan-Pakistan Border Crossing After Cross-Border Exchange of Gunfire. The main border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan was closed on Wednesday after security forces from both sides exchanged fire. Local residents reported the sound of gunfire by the Torkham crossing near the Khyber Pass. Security sources said Taliban and Pakistani forces exchanged fire but there have been no reported casualties. The local government of Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province, where the crossing is located, and Pakistan’s foreign office did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Torkham crossing has been closed several times in recent years, including a days-long closure in February. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Former Mossad Chief Says Israel Enforcing Apartheid in West Bank. Tamir Pardo, a former head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, said on Wednesday that Israel’s treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank amounts to apartheid, joining a small group of former top Israeli officials who have endorsed the idea. He bluntly said that there is an “apartheid state” in the West Bank, where “two people are judged under two legal systems.” He did not say if he held the same beliefs while chief of Mossad, but said that he believed Palestine is a top issue for Israel, trumping Iran’s nuclear program. He repeatedly added that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not set borders with the Palestinians, Israel’s existence as a Jewish state is threatened. Pardo has been a critic of Netanyahu’s government, especially over its judicial overhaul plan. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
East African Force Countering Congo Militia Violence Extended to December. The East African Community (EAC) bloc said Tuesday that it has extended the mandate of the EACRF force, which was created to combat militia violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), to December. The force’s term was due to expire on Friday. DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has criticized EACRF in the past for lacking aggression and failing to subdue the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo. According to the UN, violence in the DRC has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, forcing almost 5.5 million people to flee their homes and causing food shortages for over 27 million people. Reuters Al Jazeera
Cyber and Tech
China Bans Government Employees from Using iPhones at Work. The Wall Street Journal reports that China has banned all staff at central government agencies from using Apple’s iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work or bringing them into the office. The report did not name what other phone makers besides Apple were affected or say how widely the orders, which were reportedly communicated by superiors through workplace chat groups and meetings, have been distributed. China’s State Council Information Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The report on the ban comes ahead of an Apple event next week which analysts believe will be about the launch of a new line of iPhones. China has been moving to attain self-reliance in technology and has doubled down on efforts amid heightened tensions with the U.S. Analysts said that while the Chinese market makes up nearly a fifth of Apple’s revenue, the ban is unlikely to have an immediate impact on earnings due to the popularity of the iPhone in China. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Japan to Launch ‘Moon Sniper’ Spacecraft. Japan is planning to launch a spacecraft to land on the lunar surface on Thursday, seeking to become the fifth country to do so. The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) craft is a low-cost “moon sniper” designed to test precision landing technology. The mission is expected to reach the moon by February after a fuel-efficient trajectory of Earth and moon orbits. Japan’s previous two attempts to land on the moon ended in failure last November and in April. India landed its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on the lunar south pole last month after Russia’s Luna-25 moon mission crashed while trying to land on the lunar surface in August. Reuters France 24
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