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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, September 13, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

US Senate's Schumer Aims to Lead Bipartisan Delegation to Japan, China, South Korea.  U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer seeks to lead a bipartisan congressional delegation to Japan, South Korea, and China in the near future, an aide reported on Tuesday. Schumer has initiated efforts to address Chinese threats to Taiwan and competition with Beijing in areas such as security and tech.  He would be the latest senior American official to visit China following trips by officials including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Republican Mike Crapo will serve as the lead Republican on Schumer’s high-profile trip.  The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not comment on the planned visit.  Reuters Bloomberg

U.S. House China Committee Considers Risks to U.S. Economy.  The House of Representatives Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party held a hearing on Tuesday assessing economic competition between the U.S. and China and risks posed by China.  Jay Clayton, former chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said at the hearing that U.S. public companies should start disclosing their exposure to China to better assess potential risks.  The committee’s chairman Representative Mike Gallagher added that U.S. firms must seriously consider threats from Beijing and potential fallout from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  The hearing came amid heightened U.S.-China tensions and as Washington is concerned about the impact of China’s economic slowdown.  While President Joe Biden has said China’s economic downturn will make it less willing and able to take military action against Taiwan, Gallagher suggested it could instead make Beijing “more risk accepting” and “less predictable.”  China’s foreign ministry has dismissed this speculation, saying that China’s economy remains resilient and “has not collapsed.”  Reuters CNBC

Guatemala President-Elect Suspends Transition of Power Over Raids of Electoral Facilities.  Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arévalo said Tuesday he is temporarily suspending the transition of power following reports that government agents from the Attorney General’s Office raided facilities of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to open boxes of votes and photograph their contents.  A spokesman for the tribunal said the agents sought to review at least 160 vote boxes and were acting with the order of a judge, though legal experts and former officials said there is no legal basis to allow a judge or prosecutors to access vote boxes.  The raids were apparently part of ongoing investigations related to the elections.  Arévalo has called for the resignation of the attorney general over the scandal and said he will only return to the transition process when the necessary conditions are met.  Associated Press 

Western Europe

Germany’s Scholz Says New Nuclear Disarmament Talks with China, Russia Needed.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday called for fresh international negotiations on nuclear disarmament that involve not only the U.S. and Russia but also China.  Scholz said that nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity and that there is an “immediate obligation” to ensure they are never used.  To this end, "getting a fresh start on arms control would be very important" as several countries are increasing their nuclear arsenals.  He added that hindering Iran from producing weapons-grade uranium is just as crucial.  The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that the number of operational nuclear weapons increased slightly in 2022 as nations executed long-term force modernization and expansion plans.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Strikes Russian Port in Crimea in Major Attack. .  Ukraine targeted a Russian navy port in Crimea in a major attack that reportedly involved10 missiles and three unmanned speedboats.  The incident, which occurred early on Wednesday in Crimea’s largest city of Sevastopol, was confirmed by both Kyiv and Moscow.  Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defenses downed seven of the missiles and a patrol ship destroyed all three speedboats used in the attack.  The ministry said the assault caused a fire at the Sevastopol Shipyard and damaged two ships that were under repair.  The Russian-installed governor of Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said the attack injured 24 people and that damage was contained to a place that is “not a civilian facility.”  Sevastopol is the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  In a rare move, the Ukrainian military publicly acknowledged the strike in a Telegram post where it reported that Ukraine’s military “conducted successful strikes on naval assets and port infrastructure.”  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to liberate all Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, including the Crimea peninsula.  CNN Reuters New York Times South China Morning Post

Putin, Kim Meet at Russian Space Center.  Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, in the Amur province of Russia’s Far East, on Wednesday.  Russian state media first reported on the meeting at the remote space rocket launch site, where Putin reportedly gave Kim a tour of the facility.  Putin reportedly indicated his willingness to aid North Korea in developing its space and satellite program, saying: “The leader of North Korea shows great interest in space, in rocketry and they are trying to develop space. We’ll show our new objects.”  Kim was quoted saying to Putin that Pyongyang offers its “full and unconditional support” for Moscow’s “sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security”, in an apparent reference to the Ukraine war, adding that North Korea will always back the Kremlin on the “anti-imperialist” front.  Kim also said that he believed his meeting with Putin would “serve as a stepping stone to raise the bilateral ties to a new high level.”  The meeting came after the U.S. warned that North Korea could agree to send weapons to Russia.  When asked about a possible arms deal, Putin said he and Kim would discuss “all issues.”  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu notably accompanied Putin at the meeting.  Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that Moscow and Pyongyang plan on collaborating in “sensitive” areas that will not be publicized.  Analysts say the comments signal that even if an arms deal has been discussed, there may not be any confirmation from either side.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters CNN 

U.S. Air National Guard Chief Says Some Ukrainian Pilots Could Be Trained on F-16s in Three Months.  The head of the US Air National Guard, Lieutenant General Michael Lou, said Tuesday that Washington could finish training the first Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets before the end of the year, although it will take more time to prepare them for actual combat missions.  The pilots are expected to arrive in Tucson, Arizona for training at the Morris Air National Guard Base by October.  Loh reported that the Ukrainian aviators are currently being assessed for English language skills and, depending on their proficiency and fighter jet experience, could complete the training within three months.  He added that due to time constraints, Tucson will most likely move some of its other international pilot training obligations around, to give priority to Ukrainian pilots.  After completing their training in the U.S., the pilots will have to travel to Europe for additional instruction by NATO allies on maintaining the jets.  General David Allvin, vice chief of the Air Force and nominee to become the next chief of the service, has previously noted that F-16 training takes six to nine months on average.  Associated Press Defense One

Russian Bomber Crashes in Training Drill.  The Russian Defense Ministry said one of its Su-24 bombers crashed Tuesday during a training exercise in southern Russia. It is unknown what happened to the warplane’s crew of two. The ministry said it deployed rescue helicopters to the crash site, located in an unpopulated zone located in the Volgograd region.  Moscow did not specify what caused the accident but did say that the twin-engine supersonic bomber was not carrying any weapons.  The crash adds to a string of crashes in the Russian air force, which some observers have attributed to a high number of flights amid the Ukraine war.  Associated Press

Putin Praises Elon Musk After Crimea Starlink Controversy.  Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly praised tech billionaire Elon Musk on Tuesday, calling him an “outstanding person” and saying that his SpaceX company is a leader in the space transportation industry.  Putin’s comments, which he made at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, came days after Musk said he refused Ukraine’s request last year to activate SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communication network over the Russian-occupied Crimean port of Sevastopol to aid a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  Musk said he refused the request to avoid complicity in a “major” act of war.  Ukrainian officials have criticized Musk for protecting the Russian fleet from attack.  Ukraine relies on Starlink for communication and connectivity due to damage to its infrastructure from Russian attacks.  Al Jazeera

Asia and Oceania

North Korea Fires Two Ballistic Missiles.  North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday morning ahead of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missiles were launched from the Sunan area, where Pyongyang’s international airport is located, into waters off the east coast of the Korean peninsula.  Japan’s Coast Guard and Ministry of Defense said the missiles fell into the sea.  Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters that the missiles fell outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone and that Tokyo lodged a protest over the launches to Pyongyang through diplomatic channels in Beijing.  Analysts said it is the first time North Korea has launched missiles while Kim was abroad for a rare trip.  CNN Reuters Al Jazeera

Australia, Indonesia Deploy Armor Capabilities for First Time in Annual U.S.-Led Drills.  U.S., Indonesian, Australian and other allied forces have been holding the joint Garuda Shield military exercises over recent days.  The annual drills on the Indonesian island of Java add to ongoing U.S. efforts to bolster regional alliances to counter increased Chinese aggression.  In this year’s drills, Australia deployed five M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and Indonesia fielded two Leopard-2 tanks to demonstrate armor capabilities.  It was the first time Australia deployed battle tanks outside of its territory since the Vietnam war.  Major General Marcus Evans, Commanding General of the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division, said the introduction of armor capability to the drills will allow the allied forces to conduct further weapon testing and boost combat preparedness.  Evans added that the exercises demonstrate Washington’s commitment to its allies in the region.  Beijing has criticized the expanded drills as a threat, accusing the U.S. of trying to form an Indo-Pacific NATO-style group to restrict China.  Associated Press

Taiwan’s TSMC Looks to Japan Amid Issues in U.S., Germany.  The world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan’s TSMC, is considering Japan as a base of production due to persisting problems at its new factory in Arizona and concerns about the work culture in Germany, according to industry sources. TSMC has found difficulties in the U.S., as unions have protested the idea of bringing in workers from Taiwan and the company has struggled to recruit skilled workers.  Germany, where TSMC plans to build an $11 billion fab, is also associated with strong unions, as well as long vacations, which the company is reportedly worried will impact output.  The sources said TSMC is now looking with greater confidence at Japan, where an $8.6 billion fab under construction in a chipmaking hub on Kyushu is on course to begin manufacturing mature-technology chips next year.  The company is debating adding capacity, as well as a second fab in Japan, because Tokyo is reportedly easy to deal with, generous with subsidies, and has a work culture known for long hours and dedication to employers.  The chipmaker said its expansion overseas depends on elements including cost considerations, the amount of government backing, and the needs of customers.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Middle East and Northern Africa

Former Israeli Security Leaders Unite Against Netanyahu’s Policies.  Over 180 former senior officials from Israel’s Mossad, Shin Bet domestic security agency, military and police have united in opposition to the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.  While security leaders have voiced disapproval as individuals, the group, which includes some officials appointed by Netanyahu, represents an unprecedented unified opposition.  The group, which calls itself the “Generals’ Protest,” is most directly speaking out against Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plans, which they say endangers Israel’s democracy and has disrupted the military since reservists have refused to serve if the overhaul is implemented.  The group added that it also opposes a draft bill that could exempt all ultra-Orthodox Jews from the military draft, which would expand a system of exemptions that is already criticized as being unfair.  Like the broader protest movement across the judicial overhaul, the Generals’ Protest has not taken a clear stand on Palestine and Israel’s occupation of the West Bank.  The group says it has no political aspirations itself, promising to disband once it believes the security threat to Israel is over.  The group also says it does not oppose the government itself, which it believes was legitimately elected.  Associated Press

Sub Saharan Africa

Niger’s Ruling Junta Severs Military Pact with Benin Amid Regional Deadlock.  Niger’s ruling junta said Tuesday that it would terminate a military accord with Benin, accusing the neighboring country of authorizing the deployment of soldiers on its territory for a potential military intervention against Niger by the West African regional bloc ECOWAS.  Benin has not yet responded to the development.  ECOWAS is still attempting to engage in talks with Niger’s military junta but has maintained that it is prepared to use force to restore constitutional order if diplomatic methods fail.  Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who currently holds the bloc’s revolving chairmanship, has said that a nine-month transition to civilian rule could work for Niger, though the junta has proposed a three-year timeline.  Reuters

Mali Reports Dozens Killed Near Northern Military Camp Captured by Rebels.  Mali’s military reported clashes with the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) rebel alliance on Tuesday near the northern town of Bourem, where the CMA briefly took control of a military camp.  The general staff of the Malian armed forces said 10 of its soldiers were killed repelling an attack near Bourem and that 46 rebel fighters were killed in the fighting.  A CMA spokesperson confirmed that the rebels took the camp but have since retreated, saying the group’s objective had not been to stay.  The CMA has previously attacked military camps to seize weapons, ammunition and vehicles.  The CMA has been fighting with the Malian army since August following the departure of UN peacekeepers who had helped to broker a peace for several years.  Both sides appear to be competing for control of territories recently vacated by the UN.  CMA was formed by semi-nomadic Tuareg people who have complained of neglect by the Mali government and have sought autonomy for a region they call Azawad.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Ukraine Conflict Spurs Drone Manufacturers To Produce Smaller Armed Versions.  The Ukraine conflict appears to be reversing a trend among drone manufacturers to field larger, heavier airborne platforms in favor of smaller armed versions.  Medium-altitude, long-endurance drones are used in over 30 countries with half as many additional nations interested in acquiring the technology, which often are used in counterinsurgency operations.  But as a representative of the Boeing subsidiary, Insitu, told the DefenseNews, “the [Ukraine] war has made it clear that a kinetic capability in Group 2 and 3 UAS (medium-to-large unmanned aircraft systems) is relevant and we have put more rigor behind an existing research and development in this focus area.”  Insitu has announced plans to arm the Group 3 Integrator drone, a class that usually weighs below 1320 pounds.  The Integrator can carry a payload of up to 35 pounds and recently completed a 25.5-hour sortie equipped for a multi-payload mission.  Group 2 UAS typically weigh in the 21–55-pound range.  According to the Insitu spokesperson, the Integrator model is capable of range and endurance previously found only on “larger, more expensive and more vulnerable MALE UAV platforms.”  One Way Aerospace is a relatively new entrant into smaller armed drones and has focused on producing low-cost kamikaze drones for use in Ukraine.  It has demonstrated the AQ-400 and AQV-150 Scalpel Heavy platforms to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and an unidentified NATO country.  The company’s mothership system, combining the AQ-400 and AQV120 drones, is expected to be ready by the end of the year, with the Indo-Pacific and Africa projected as areas of interest in addition to Ukraine.  DefenseNews

Cyber Command Concludes Second ‘Hunt Forward’ Mission to Lithuania.  The U.S. Cyber Command has completed its second “hunt forward” mission to Lithuania during which members of the Cyber National Mission Force (CNMF) worked alongside experts from Lithuania’s Information Technology and Communications Department to expose vulnerabilities in Lithuanian networks.  The mission was the latest of a number that have been deployed to East European countries since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.  Cyber Command did not identify the networks examined, which were selected by Lithuanian authorities.  Arnoldas Abramavičius, vice-minister of the Interior, said that “I believe that the results of this mission will be mutually beneficial and contribute to creating a common area of security and democracy in our region.”  Cyber Command chief Army Gen. Paul Nakasone told the Billington Cybersecurity Conference in Washington last week that the command has sent elite hacker teams on 50 different hunt forward operations in 23 countries across 77 networks since 2018. Usually at the request of host nations, the missions are only revealed well after they conclude.  Cyber Command did not provide the dates of the Lithuania mission.  The Record

CISA Advises Security Measures Against Microsoft, Adobe Vulnerabilities.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is advising network security administrators to implement patches to several vulnerabilities included in Microsoft’s release of Patch Tuesday bugs, describing two as critical issues under attack by hackers.  CISA confirmed that zero-day flaws related to Microsoft Word (CVE-2023-36761) and Microsoft Streaming Service Proxy (CVE-2023-36802) are being exploited.  The agency has set a deadline of October 3 for Federal agencies to implement patches.  An Immersive Labs cybersecurity engineer said the Microsoft Word vulnerability represents a high risk to confidentiality with a vulnerability that could be exploited if a malware-infected file or document is accessed or previewed.  Exploitation of the bug could expose authentication tools used in Windows environments, allowing attackers to access sensitive information or systems.  Immersive Labs explained that the vulnerability found in the Microsoft Streaming Service Proxy is related to Microsoft Stream, the successor to Office 365 Video.  A Labs expert said the vulnerability could allow threat actors who have compromised a targeted system to gain administrator privileges.  CISA also published a warning about a vulnerability affecting Adobe Acrobat and Reader and urged administrators to update systems and patches.  Adobe has warned that the vulnerability “has been exploited in the wild in limited attacks targeting Adobe Acrobat and Reader.”  The Record

Threat Actor ‘Jailbreaks’ Override Chatbot Safeguards to Manipulate Capabilities.  Threat actors are becoming adept at evading safeguards built into generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT to seize access to uncensored content.   Cybersecurity researchers report an expansion of “jailbreaking” communities where tactics are circulated for obtaining access to chatbot infrastructure.  SlashNext, a cloud cybersecurity firm, noted that jailbreaking is appealing because it can lead to technical exploitation by communities “eager to expand the limits of AI through shared experimentation and lessons learned.”  Activating an unrestricted mode in chatbots can sometimes be done with a simple prompt that challenges the application’s limitations and exposes “its unhinged abilities.”  Some malicious actors have taken the next step in jailbreaking AI tools and begun developing their own versions, including WormGPT, DarkGPT, and Black Hat GPT.  The developer of EscapeGPT reportedly told SlashNext that the application simply interfaces with a jailbroken version of ChatGPT, meaning “the only real advantage of these tools is the provision of anonymity for users.”  SlashNext said some actors receive cryptocurrency payments for unauthorized access, which allows users “to easily exploit AI-generated content for malicious purposes without revealing their identities.”  Cybernews

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