10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, October 18, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden Arrives in Israel, No Longer Going to Jordan. President Joe Biden arrived in Israel on Wednesday in a show of support following the Hamas attacks. He was greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog and will meet with Israel’s war cabinet and other Israeli officials. Biden is expected to use his visit to offer Israel what it needs to defend itself while also seeking clarity on Israel’s plans and objectives in the coming days.
Jordan canceled a summit it was set to hold with Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fateh El-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas after the latter withdrew from the talks following the bombing of a hospital in the Gaza Strip. Biden said he was “outraged and deeply saddened” by the blast at the hospital and backed Israel’s account that a misfired rocket from Palestinian militants caused the explosion. However, he noted that “there’s a lot of people out there not sure” and has directed his national security team to gather more information on the incident. Palestinian officials blamed an Israeli air strike for the blast. Other Western leaders also called for caution on the incident. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said “too many jumped to conclusions” about the explosion and urged all to “wait on the facts” and ensure “cool heads” prevail.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at least 31 Americans have been killed in the Israel-Hamas conflict and at least 13 others remain missing. He added that the Biden administration is working to get Americans held hostage by Hamas released. CNN Reuters Washington Post Wall Street Journal
Biden Reportedly Considering Request for $100 Billion in Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan Aid. The Biden Administration plans to request Congress approve at least $100 billion in supplemental funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and U.S. border security, according to several sources. Administration officials said the package has not yet been finalized. The request is expected to be sent to Congress on Friday, following President Joe Biden’s return from Israel. There is strong support in Congress to approve aid to Israel, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said that he wants the Senate to move quickly on it. But the picture remains unclear in the House, which has yet to choose a new speaker and where some Republicans have expressed resistance to combining aid to Israel with aid to Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he supports tying aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan together. He also emphasized, however, that the part of the package dedicated to the southern border “needs to be credible.” Separately, administration officials will hold a classified briefing today for the Senate on the situation in Israel and Gaza. Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal
Xi Lays Out Belt and Road Action Plan. Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled an action plan for future Belt and Road Initiative projects. The plan includes eight points, largely tied to attaining “high-quality” long-term growth, including:
- A Europe-Asia logistics corridor
- A “silk road e-commerce zone” and more free-trade and investment agreements
- A pledge for $47.8 billion in financing from Chinese development banks
- A green development push
- A push on scientific development and artificial intelligence research
- More cultural and people-to-people exchanges, including through a tourism alliance
- More transparency and “clean cooperation”
- Belt and Road institutions, such as a secretariat
Xi additionally pledged more railway development and to lift restrictions on foreign investment in Chinese manufacturing. Xi also signaled a shift from massive infrastructure to “small and beautiful” and more market-oriented projects, aiming to counter criticism of Belt and Road projects being debt traps to developing countries. Xi focused his speech on appealing to developing nations, saying, “China’s development is not just about itself” and is aimed at “mutually beneficial cooperation and common prosperity.” He also said that China “opposes decoupling” and bloc confrontation, adding that those who see other’s development as a “threat” are misguided, in a veiled attack on the U.S. South China Morning Post Nikkei Asia Reuters
Putin Meets Xi in Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. He called Xi his “dear friend” and reaffirmed Beijing and Moscow’s ties. He praised the Belt and Road as a means for fair, global cooperation. He invited development of the Northern Sea Route and highlighted development of railways, including the West Siberian Railway and a north-south corridor connecting the Baltic Sea to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Putin was joined in Beijing with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov; Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a top oil and gas official; Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko; Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov; and other advisors and diplomats. Neither Putin nor Xi mentioned global issues like Ukraine or the Israel-Hamas conflict at the forum, strictly focusing on the Belt and Road Initiative. Bloomberg Reuters
Russia’s Lavrov Visits North Korea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in North Korea on Wednesday to begin two days of meetings in advance of a potential visit by President Vladimir Putin. Lavrov’s trip comes after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s trip to Russia last month, during which he discussed military cooperation with Putin and invited him to visit Pyongyang. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim said on Tuesday that relations between North Korea and Russia are “worrying” as the U.S. government and others report mounting evidence that North Korea is shipping weapons to Russia for use in its war on Ukraine. Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
Israeli authorities report that at least 1,400 people have been killed in Israel since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Palestinian officials say around 3,000 people in Gaza have been killed. Hamas’s military wing says it is holding at least 200 to 250 hostages.
Israel Says Aid to Be Provided in Southern Gaza, Does Not Elaborate. The Israeli military posted new evacuation orders for civilians in Gaza City and said international aid will be provided in southern Gaza, though it did not provide many specific details. The order said Gaza City civilians should leave southward to a “humanitarian zone” in Al-Mawasi. An Israeli military did not respond to a question by Reuters about whether the order signaled aid will be allowed into Gaza. There is currently aid in Egypt waiting to be transferred into Gaza, but it is unclear when those shipments will reach the territory. Cairo has accused Israel of not cooperating in opening the Rafah crossing to allow the aid through into Gaza. Forbes Reuters
Egypt Rejects Displacement of Palestinian Refugees into Sinai. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Wednesday that his country will reject the forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. He added that any such displacement will “come at the expense of the countries of the region” and turn the peninsula into a base for militants to launch attacks against Israel. Sisi suggested that Palestinian civilians from Gaza could be moved to Israel’s Negev desert “till the militants are dealt with.” Cairo is wary of insecurity at its border with Gaza, having faced an Islamist insurgency there a decade ago. Reuters The Hill
U.S. Lawmakers Call for Action on Hamas Use of Crypto. A bipartisan group of 105 U.S. lawmakers led by Senators Elizabeth Warren and Roger Marshall and Representative Sean Casten are calling for a crackdown on Hamas’s use of cryptocurrencies. The group sent a letter to the U.S. Treasury Department and White House on Tuesday urging the Biden administration to “address crypto illicit finance risks” regarding the use of crypto by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to fund their operations while evading U.S. sanctions. The lawmakers are requesting the Biden administration to provide estimates on the value of Hamas’s crypto assets and how much of the group’s operations are funded with crypto, as well as information on the transfer of crypto between Hamas and other militant groups. Israeli police reported after the Hamas attacks that they froze several crypto accounts used by Hamas to solicit donations. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Iran Urges Islamic Countries to Sanction Israel. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Wednesday that members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) should impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel and expel Israeli ambassadors. Amirabdollahian also called for the formation of a team of Islamic lawyers to assess potential Israeli war crimes in Gaza. The OIC is holding a meeting in the Saudi city of Jeddah to discuss the Israel-Hamas war, following an explosion at a Gaza hospital that killed hundreds of Palestinians. Tehran has called for Muslim countries and communities to protest Israeli air strikes on Gaza following the Hamas attacks. Al Jazeera Reuters
South Africa Says it Talked with Hamas Leader on Aid, Denies Reported Offer of Support. South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) confirmed on Tuesday that South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor spoke on the phone with the leader of Hamas about providing aid to Gaza. DIRCO denied reports that it offered to aid the militant group in its war against Israel. Earlier, a local media agency, News24, reported a statement from Hamas claiming that it had received a call of support from the South African foreign minister, though the statement did not name Pandor. A spokesperson for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa asserted that the country does not have ties with Hamas and that “support for the Palestinian struggle against occupation” does not mean supporting Hamas. South Africa has long advocated for Palestine, likening the Palestinian plight to South Africa’s experience under an apartheid regime. Reuters
Israel, Spain in Diplomatic Dispute. The Israeli Embassy in Madrid Israel has accused some Spanish ministers of siding with Hamas in the current conflict, but Spain rejects that claim. Spanish Minister of Social Rights Ione Belarra has posted several times on social media offering her support for Palestinians and criticizing the Israeli occupation, and on Monday she called on her country to bring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges. Minister of Equality Irene Montero made a similar appeal, saying Israeli “war crimes cannot go unpunished.” Israel has demanded that Spain’s Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez condemn the ministers’ remarks, but the Spanish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday calling the Israeli Embassy statements “falsehoods,” adding that the Spanish government has condemned the Hamas attacks on Israel and has called for the protection of civilians in Gaza. Belarra defended her comments, saying that denouncing “genocide” does not mean aligning with Hamas. The controversy has prompted renewed criticism of Sanchez from political parties on the right. Alberto Nunez Feijoo, who leads the conservative People’s Party, told reporters in Madrid that Spain’s response to Israel’s complaint was “rude” and that this “is not the moment to have a conflict with Israel.” Al Jazeera
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine Reports Russian Attacks Kill Five Civilians, Damage Power Grid. Ukrainian officials said Russian attacks on Ukraine overnight and today killed at least five civilians and damaged the power grid in the northeastern city of Kharkiv. Officials report that a missile strike killed two civilians in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, one civilian was killed in an attack on the village of Obukhivka in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, and two other people were killed in the southern Kherson region. President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted to the attacks by saying on Telegram that Russia “continues to use terror and wage war on civilians.” A Russian-installed official in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region said the strikes were launched by Ukrainian forces. Moscow, which has launched frequent air strikes that have killed Ukrainian civilians, continues to deny that it deliberately targets civilians. Kyiv says it expects Russia to increasingly focus its attacks on energy infrastructure as the second winter since the invasion began approaches. Reuters
Russia Calls U.S. Decision to Send ATACMS to Ukraine a Mistake. Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said Wednesday that Washington's decision to transfer long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine was a severe mistake that will have grave consequences. The Russian warning came after reports on Tuesday said that Kyiv used a version of U.S.-supplied ATACMS for the first time, striking airfields in Russian-occupied territory. Ukrainian authorities have said the new missile system will change the course of the war, allowing Ukrainian forces to target deep within Russian-controlled territory and forcing Moscow to push vital air assets far back from the front lines. The Kremlin maintains that the ATACMS and other U.S. support will not impact the war. Reuters ABC News
Russia Increasing Nuclear Capability in Belarus. A Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite images and Belarusian state media footage shows Russia is enhancing its nuclear weapons launch capability in Belarus. Russian Iskander missiles capable of launching nuclear warheads beyond Belarusian borders have been popping up at Belarusian military training grounds. It is not known whether Russia has transferred nuclear warheads to the sites. The report adds that Russia has been building this capability in Belarus since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Wall Street Journal
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Hamas Uses Hostages’ Facebook Accounts To Livestream Kidnappings, Propaganda. Hamas’ cyber tactics during its attack on Israel October 7 included hijacking the Facebook accounts of individuals in targeted communities. One such incident involved Gali Shlezinger Idan, a resident of a kibbutz near Gaza’s border, whose friends and relatives discovered that Hamas attackers were using the Facebook account of the Idan family to stream their kidnapping. A family friend, Keren de Via, recalled watching the livestream of the family in captivity — “How could we watch them terrorize the family like this? How could I watch this on Facebook?” Seizing the social media accounts of kidnapped families is a new Hamas tactic, viewed as a form of psychological warfare as it broadcasts both real-time video and violent messages. In several instances, Hamas militants logged into hostages’ personal accounts and followed those intrusions by probing Facebook groups, Instagram accounts, and WhatsApp chats, which they used to communicate death threats and calls to incite violence. Militant use of social media is nothing new, but according to Thomas Rid, a strategic studies professor at Johns Hopkins University, the exploitation of personal accounts “weaponizes social media in a way I don’t think we’ve seen before. We are not psychologically prepared for this.” Meta, parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, declined comment on the seizure of social media accounts, but has established a “special operations center staffed with experts, including fluent Hebrew and Arabic speakers, to closely monitor and respond to this rapidly evolving situation.” According to unidentified members of the Facebook security team, the use of hostages’ accounts appeared to be Hamas’ plan from the outset of the attack. Hamas representatives did not respond to requests for comment. New York Times
Telegram Serves as Key Outlet for Hamas as Major Platforms Police Content. Despite recent highly publicized efforts by major social media platforms to monitor and remove offensive content and disinformation related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, Axios notes that “huge levels of problematic content” continue to circulate online, largely due to loosely moderated outlets like Telegram. Axios cites an analysis by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRL), which last week reported that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have turned to Telegram as a primary communications channel. Content on militant Telegram channels is extremely graphic and contains incitements to violence which, in light of minimal Telegram content moderation, serves militant factions’ efforts “to spread propaganda at scale.” The DFRL also observed that Israel, unlike Hamas, continues to embrace X/Twitter due to the platform’s popularity domestically as well as its global reach. Accounts affiliated with the Israeli government and military have increased since the Hamas attack, though not at the rapid rate seen on Hamas’ growth on Telegram. Axios
Five Eyes Intelligence Chiefs Warn of Chinese ‘Theft’ of Intellectual Property. Top intelligence officials from the “Five Eyes” countries – the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – meeting in Stanford, California on Tuesday accused China of intellectual property theft and of using artificial intelligence to hack and spy on other countries. The officials made the accusation after meetings with representatives of private companies in Silicon Valley. FBI Director Christopher Wray said the “unprecedented” joint statement on the issue was meant to confront the unprecedented threat posed by China. He added that China’s hacking program is bigger than that of “every other nation combined.” Australian Security Intelligence Organization Director-General Mike Burgess said China’s behavior “goes well beyond traditional espionage.” The officials called on private industry and academia to help counter the threat. Chinese government spokesman Liu Pengyu dismissed what he called “groundless allegations and smears.” Reuters
China Now Holds Clear ‘Apex’ Role as Global Cybersecurity Threat, Mandia Says. Cybersecurity executive Kevin Mandia told the Google Public Sector Forum on Tuesday that China has displaced Russia as the leader of offensive cyber operations around the world. Reflecting on his long-lasting role as a cybersecurity specialist, Mandia said that he or a colleague has responded to a Chinese cyberattack every day since 1995. Mandia noted that from 2004 to 2019, Russia was the leading threat, but that pecking order has changed with improvements in Chinese hackers’ operational security, hacking toolkits and training. “China innovates more than anybody on the front lines,” Mandia observed. Chinese hackers’ deployment of two zero day vulnerabilities as part of an operation targeting U.S. defense contractors earned the distinction of being the most expensive hack observed by Mandiant last year. “They are the one apex attacker in cyberspace,” Mandia said. Researchers note that China is employing new technologies like AI to create viral disinformation in support of China’s geopolitical goals. CyberScoop
Chinese ‘Cognitive Warfare’ Doctrine Embraces Social Media as Primary Outlet. China’s long-standing doctrine for “cognitive warfare” has now embraced social media as a primary battlefield for influencing and shaping an adversary’s perceptions, decisions, and actions, according to researchers. A recent article in the official military newspaper, the PLA Daily, described four “confrontational actions” that can be taken on social media platforms — Information Disturbance, Discourse Competition, Public Opinion Blackout, and Block Information. Pursuit of these actions can result in “invisible manipulation” and "invisible embedding" of information that can “shape the target audience's macro framework for recognizing, defining, and understanding events.” Recent examples of Chinese “cognitive warfare” in practice include the thousands of false-front accounts on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, and Substack used to distribute Beijing’s disinformation and propaganda. Researchers and officials are concerned about similar efforts to target the 2024 U.S. election, and campaigns launched in the event of a Taiwan conflict. A separate PLA article outlined how generative AI can be manipulated to “efficiently generate massive amounts of fake news, fake pictures, and even fake videos to confuse the public.” China also is seeking greater influence over future versions of the Internet, which would yield sizable leverage for Beijing’s messaging programs. In addition, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last year released a five-year action plan to dominate the metaverse and associated technologies, including investing in 100 “core” companies and 10 public service platforms” by 2026. DefenseOne
Taiwan’s Foxconn Building AI Data Factories with Nvidia Chips. Taiwan’s Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics maker, plans to build a new kind of data center using chips and software by Nvidia for a host of applications including self-driving cars, the companies announced at Foxconn’s annual tech showcase in Taipei on Wednesday. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the two companies will build “AI factories” together, and that in the future, “every company, every industry” will have AI factories. Foxconn has set a goal of gaining 5% of the global EV market and $33 billion in revenue from manufacturing EVs and components by 2025, with a longer-term ambition to make half the world’s EVs. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
South Korea, Japan, U.S. to Hold First Joint Aerial Drill. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. will conduct a joint aerial exercise near the Korean peninsula in the coming days, marking the first time the three countries will hold such a drill. South Korea’s Dong-a Ilbo newspaper and its Yonhap news agency reported the exercise is likely to be conducted on Sunday. Yonhap also said the drill likely will involve U.S. B-52 strategic bombers and fighter jets from all three countries. A South Korean defense ministry official declined to comment on details of the operation, but he said the three countries are “expanding” their joint military exercises following an agreement by their leaders at Camp David in August to strengthen cooperation against North Korean threats. Reuters Barron’s Defense Post
Britain Questions U.S. Regulations on Technology Sharing for AUKUS. British First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Key on Tuesday backed Australia in questioning U.S. regulations governing technology transfer that they say are hindering the AUKUS project to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In remarks at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, Key said the regulations should not be used to maintain a U.S. competitive advantage at a time when the West finds itself in “as contested an environment as we have been in for many decades.” Key added that if the aim of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) is to prevent adversaries from getting American technology, “that’s probably realistic,” but that the rules should not be used to provide “a competitive edge” at the expense of ensuring a security framework. The Biden administration has said it is working with Congress to relax rules on technology sharing with Britain and Australia, but progress has been limited, with analysts citing resistance within the State Department. Reuters
Putin Accepts Invitation to Visit Vietnam. Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly accepted an invitation from Vietnam’s President Vo Van Thuong to visit Vietnam “soon,” according to Vietnamese state media. The two leaders met on Tuesday on the sidelines of China’s Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. A Russian diplomat said no preparations for Putin’s visit have started “yet” and that a date for the visit has not been set either. The diplomat added that Putin also invited Thuong to Moscow. Vietnam and Russia have been close partners since the Soviet era. Hanoi gets around 80% of its weapons and military equipment from Moscow. Vietnam is not a member of the International Criminal Court, which issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest in March over his alleged role in war crimes in Ukraine. Vietnam is pursuing a balanced foreign policy, maintaining relations with Russia, China and the U.S. Reuters
U.S. Thwarts Drone Attack on Troops in Iraq. The U.S. military on Wednesday reportedly repelled a drone attack targeting Iraq’s al Asad air base, where U.S. troops are deployed. U.S. officials said two drones were intercepted before they could strike the base. They did not say who was suspected of being behind the assault. The attempted attack came hours after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza, which Israel has blamed on a misfired rocket from Palestinian militants and Palestinian officials blamed on an Israeli air strike. The incident came amid intensifying tensions in the region due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and heightened alert for actions by Iran-backed organizations. Last week, Iraqi groups aligned with Iran threatened to target U.S. interests if Washington supported Israel amid its conflict with Hamas. Reuters
Pakistan Urged Against Deporting Afghan U.S. Visa, Refugee Applicants. A group of 80 former U.S. officials as well as resettlement organizations on Tuesday called on Pakistan to not deport hundreds of thousands of Afghans applying for American visas or refugee relocation to the U.S. Pakistan has said all illegal migrants, including Afghans, must exit the country by November 1 or they will be forcibly deported. At least 20,000 Afghans who fled the Taliban in 2021 are in Pakistan awaiting resettlement in the U.S. or the processing of applications for U.S. Special Immigration Visas (SIVs). In a letter to Islamabad, the group of former officials and resettlement groups said that the deportation of the Afghan nationals would send them to a place “where their lives would be in jeopardy.” The signatories — which included three ex-ambassadors to Kabul, two retired American generals, and Colin Kahl, the No. 3 Pentagon official until July — added that the Afghans awaiting relocation include women activists, translators, journalists, and "other professionals who face significant risks" if they are forced to return to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Pakistan has said the expulsion process will be orderly, and can be done in phases, starting with people who have criminal records. Reuters
Venezuelan Government, Opposition Agree to 2024 Election. Venezuela’s government and political opposition agreed on Tuesday to hold a presidential election in the latter half of 2024. International observers will be permitted to monitor the vote, and each side may choose its candidate according to their own internal rules. The agreement follows reports that the U.S. is set to ease some oil-related sanctions if the Venezuelan government agrees to electoral guarantees for 2024 elections. Notably, the deal between Venezuela’s government and opposition did not lift bans on opposition candidates barred from running for office. Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post
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