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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, November 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

European Commission Recommends Ukraine, Moldova Start E.U. Accession Talks.  The European Commission on Wednesday recommended Ukraine and Moldova begin formal negotiations on their accession to the European Union.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the recommendation, highlighting Ukraine’s completion of “well over 90%” of steps laid out last year to start the formal negotiations.  The talks should start next year.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the recommendation, saying “the history of Ukraine and the whole of Europe has taken the right step.”  Other Ukrainian officials likewise touted the speed of Ukrainian reforms to achieve the accession talks and voiced determination in completing next steps to achieve E.U. membership.  The European Commission says Ukraine has completed necessary reforms in its judiciary, anti-money laundering legislation, and alignment of media legislation to E.U. standards.  Kyiv still has work to do on reforms regarding anti-corruption, de-oligarchization, and protection of minorities, but the Commission noted significant progress in these areas so far.  The Commission also recommended candidate status for Georgia.  BBC CNN Kyiv Independent Politico

Biden Administration Calls for More Economic Aid to Ukraine.  Senior Biden Administration officials have sent a letter to Congressional leaders urging approval of $11.8 billion in economic aid to Ukraine amid growing Republican opposition to such assistance. The letter from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that if Russia is able to destroy Ukraine’s economy, “it will hobble the Ukrainian state to the point that it cannot defend itself on the battlefield.” The letter added that U.S. allies and partners “are stepping up,” but that “financing from others cannot make up for the large gap” that would emerge if U.S. aid ceases. To date, the U.S. has provided approximately $27 billion in economic aid for Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday that he told President Joe Biden and Secretary Yellen that a funding package that includes aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan will not pass the Senate unless it includes a “credible solution” to U.S. border crossings.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the Republican proposal radical, but he said Democrats are willing to negotiate. Likewise, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the Biden administration is open to negotiations, but she said there are provisions “fundamentally missing” from the Republican immigration plan, including a path to citizenship for immigrants brought into the country illegally as children.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. Pushes Back on Israel’s Security Plan in Gaza After War.  U.S. officials are voicing opposition to Israeli plans to retain control of security in Gaza once the war with Hamas ends. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said President Joe Biden believes “reoccupation by Israeli forces is not the right thing to do.”  Secretary of State Antony Blinken later said Israel and its allies must start “setting the conditions for durable peace” in Gaza now and underscored that while “Gaza cannot continue to be run by Hamas… it’s also clear that Israel cannot occupy Gaza.”  He suggested a “transition period” should be allowed after the war, emphasizing the need for Palestinians to “be central to the governance of Gaza and the West Bank.”  Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said Israel does not wish to impose a civilian administration on Gaza, adding that once Hamas is defeated, Israel will seek to cede responsibility for governing Gaza to an international coalition that would include the U.S., European Union, and Muslim-majority countries, or to local political leaders in Gaza.  Washington Post Wall Street Journal New York Times

G7's Top Diplomats Call for Pauses in Gaza Fighting, Discuss Post-Conflict Plan.  Group of Seven (G7) countries’ foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo released a joint statement on Wednesday calling for “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting in Gaza and a “peace process” for the Israel-Palestine issue.  The statement said Israel has the right to defend itself but also stressed the need to protect civilians and comply with international humanitarian law. The statement did not specify what a peace process would look like but it said a two-state solution “remains the only path to a just, lasting, and secure peace.”  President Joe Biden had reportedly called for a three-day pause to fighting to help secure the release of hostages held by Hamas and facilitate the transfer of aid into Gaza.  An Israeli official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu viewed that long of a pause as a ceasefire, which he has said would only allow Hamas to reconsolidate.  Separately, the G7 foreign ministers’ statement also reiterated support for Ukraine, called for engagement with China over shared concerns and condemned North Korean missile tests and arms transfers to Russia.  Reuters France 24 Washington Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Continues Gaza Assault, Targets Hamas Leaders and Infrastructure.  Israel continued its attack on Gaza, having encircled and advanced deep into Gaza City.  Israeli forces said it launched two separate air strikes that killed Mahsein Abu Zina, a top armorer for Hamas.  Israel also claims that Yahya Sinwar, the most senior Hamas leader in Gaza, has been cornered in his bunker.  Israel’s military also said it is targeting Hamas infrastructure, deploying military engineers to destroy the militant group’s tunnel network with explosives.  Palestinian media reported clashes between Israeli troops and Hamas fighters near the al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City.  Hamas claims to have destroyed at least one Israeli tank in Gaza City.  The reports could not immediately be independently confirmed.  The U.N. reports that two-thirds of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians are internally displaced and warns that the territory’s health system is near collapse.  Reuters Washington Post

Saudi Arabia to Host Arab and Islamic Summits to Discuss Peaceful Resolution to Israeli War. Saudi Arabian investment minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Wednesday that Riyadh will host gatherings of Arab and Islamic nations in the coming days for talks on the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Falih said that Saudi Arabia will convene “an emergency Arab summit” this week with the objective of finding a “peaceful resolution of the conflict."  Saudi Arabia will then hold a gathering of Islamic countries.  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is expected to travel to Riyadh for the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit on Sunday.  Falih added that Riyadh would also convene a summit with African nations at some point, though he did not provide a date.  Reuters Wall Street Journal 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Says it Repelled Several Russian Assaults.  The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday that its soldiers had repelled Russian attacks and are preparing for new Russian attempts to capture the eastern frontline town of Avdiivka.  Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces had managed to repel 15 assaults close to Kupiansk in the northeast as well as 18 attacks further south near Maryinka. Troops also beat back nine attacks in and near Avdiivka.  The head of Avdiivka’s military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said that heavy rain had made a new Russian advance unlikely for the moment, as the “terrain is too difficult and equipment cannot move." He added that for the past week, Moscow had been targeting Avdiivka’s massive coking plant with artillery.  He said that now only two doctors and four nurses remain in the settlement, which had a population of 32,000 before the war.  Separately, Russia claimed that its soldiers had launched strikes on Ukrainian forces and equipment in villages close to the eastern town of Bakhmut and in the Zaporizhzhia region.  Ukraine’s General Staff reported Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and in the western Zaporizhzhia region.  Reuters Institute for the Study of War

France Plans 200 Million Euros in New Ukraine Aid.  French Foreign Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Tuesday that France plans to contribute another 200 million euros in aid to Ukraine. The additional money will allow Ukraine to continue purchasing French military equipment. The added funding will be part of a budget bill being debated in the French parliament on Wednesday. French arms manufacturer Verney-Carron announced on Monday that it had agreed to supply Ukraine with weapons, including 10,000 assault rifles, subject to the necessary funding.  Kyiv Independent 

G7 Support for Ukraine Will Not Dim Due to Middle East Conflict, Japan Says.  Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa told a news conference on Tuesday that the G7’s “commitment to continue strict sanctions against Russia and strong support for Ukraine” will not be affected by the Israel-Hamas conflict. At a later meeting with Kamikawa, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also expressed the G7’s “enduring support” for Ukraine. In the latest move aimed at Russia, the G7 is considering proposals to impose sanctions on Russian diamonds.  Reuters BBC 

U.S. Indicts Seven Individuals, Three Companies for Transferring Dual-Use Tech to Russia.  The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) released a statement on Tuesday saying a U.S. court has indicted seven people and three companies for participating in a complex, multi-national scheme to export U.S.-produced dual-use electronic components to Russia. Those indicted include companies H Brothers Group Inc., SN Electronics Inc., and Suntronic F.Z.E. as well as individuals Nikolay Goltsev, Salimdzhon Nasriddinov, Kristina Puzyreva, Oleg Zenchenko, Yekaterina Vetoshkina, Pavel Chernikov, and Vladimir Bochkarev. The BIS said some of the recipients of the components in Russia included companies affiliated with the Russian military. Court documents showed that electronic components shipped through the indicted companies match the model numbers of parts in Russian weapons found in Ukraine, including helicopters, tanks and drones. The scheme allegedly included hundreds of shipments to Russia totaling more than $7 million.  Kyiv Independent 

Western Weapons Still Getting to Russia Despite Sanctions.  An investigation by the German project Correctiv shows that Russian companies continue to purchase firearms and ammunition from Europe and the U.S. despite export restrictions. Journalists estimate that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has imported almost 7,300 firearms and nearly 8 million rounds of ammunition. The imports include weapons from U.S. companies Smith & Wesson, Barrett Firearms and Desert Tech. Firearms including Glock pistols, AR-15 automatic rifles, and Blaser R8 carbines have been identified as being in use in Ukraine, according to the investigation. Correctiv says the weapons were not transferred directly from Western manufacturers but likely were channeled through intermediaries in third countries.  Kyiv Independent 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

North Korean Hackers Deploy New Social Engineering Malware Against Finance Sector.  A simple but effective new malware tool is being deployed by a North Korean cybercrime group, BlueNorOff, against MacOS devices through social engineering campaigns targeting the financial sector.  According to Apple’s security company, Jamf, BlueNorOff masquerades as an investor or headhunter claiming they are interested in partnering with a targeted organization. The threat actors use malicious domains that resemble legitimate crypto companies.  Although it is unclear how BlueNorOff operatives gain initial access, once inside a system the malware, which is written in Objective-C programming language, executes commands sent from the attacker’s server.  It uses built-in features to gather information about itself and the MacOS device it has compromised.  Ngoc Bui, a Menlo Security cybersecurity expert, said that the malware strain deployed by BlueNoroff, which is believed to be a Lazarus subgroup, “is significant because it shows (the group) is continuing to develop new and sophisticated malware.”  Bui added that the fact the malware was not flagged when it was uploaded indicates that BlueNoroff is taking steps to evade detection.  Cybernews The Record BleepingComputer

Major Japanese Defense Contractor Hit by Cyberattack Claimed by ALPHV.  A major Japanese defense contractor, Japan Aviation Electronics (JAE), has confirmed that its workflow processes have been impacted by a cyberattack.  The ransomware gang, ALPHV, has listed the company on its dark web blog that features its most recent victims.  The type and amount of data claimed by ALPHV has not been disclosed.  JAE issued a statement confirming that unauthorized access of company servers had occurred and that an investigation is under way.  Cybernews noted that the JAE global website was inaccessible.  The company noted that some system operations have been suspended along with delays in email operations.  JAE has a workforce of nearly 10,000 staff and specializes in the manufacture of connectors and interface solution equipment used in mobile devices, infrastructure, industrial machinery, flight control and navigation equipment, as well as space electronics.  The Cybernews ransomware monitoring tool registers ALPHV as among the most active gangs in the last year, victimizing 317 organizations worldwide.  Cybernews

Japan Plans Significant Expansion of Surveillance Satellite Network.  By 2029, Japan plans to have nine information-collecting satellites in orbit, an increase from the five in operation today.  Among other capabilities, the expansion will reinforce Japan’s ability to detect missile launches.  Japan’s current array includes two optical, two radar, and a single communications relay satellite, a constellation that can capture images of a single location four times a day.  The growth of the network will allow Japan to capture eight ground images a day.  The government’s budget request for fiscal year 2024 earmarks $502 million for satellite development, an increase of $86 million over 2023.  Surveillance capabilities will be enhanced by the expansion, allowing Japan to monitor specific areas more intensely and accelerate detection of missile launches.  Government plans call for a new optical satellite in fiscal 2023 and a new radar satellite in fiscal 2024.  Further launches are planned between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2029.  The communications relay satellite will link the expanded network for data exchanges when they are outside the range of a ground station.  Japan’s ground system also will be upgraded, an improvement that will reinforce image analysis capabilities at the Cabinet Satellite Intelligence Center and beyond.  Nikkei Asia

China’s Impressive Military Technology Advances Still Beset by Multiple Problems.  Chinese military and defense technology sector have made enormous strides in the last several decades, capable of deploying advanced weapons like medium- and long-range hypersonic weapons.  Still, according to an Economist analysis, Chinese forces and weapons systems are beset by problems ranging from technical flaws, supply chain issues, and development delays, compounded by an inefficient bureaucracy and widespread corruption.  Private sector development has not reached expectations and China remains dependent on foreign sources for certain key components.  Circumstances like these lead some Western officials to believe there is a connection to the disappearance in August and eventual removal of Gen. Li Shangfu as Chinese defense minister.  Li was head of the Equipment Development Department from 2017 to 2022.  PLA military publications have documented the military’s shortcomings, often repeating the criticism of Chinese leader Xi Jinping that it is not equipped to win a high-tech war.  Those concerns have been amplified by the performance of Russian arms systems in Ukraine.  As the Economist notes, China purchased many Russian weapons after being hit with Western arms embargoes in the aftermath of Beijing’s suppression of pro-democracy protesters in 1989.  Senior Col. Zhang Chi of the PLA National Defense University commented to the Economist, “we’re still far from matching America.  Our biggest problem is that China’s economy needs to develop more. We just don’t have the money.”  That claim needs to be qualified by the size of China’s military budget — $225 billion without counting arms imports – and certain financial advantages such as lower labor costs and the intellectual firepower represented by the number of S&T doctorates awarded in China each year.  Those and other factors have propelled China into the lead in certain military R&D areas, including hypersonic weapons and underwater drones.  Still, China still falters in the design and mass production of older technology, with aircraft and marine engines as particular issues.  Inefficient central planning processes in the defense sector and defects in systems China exports to foreign militaries add to the challenges Beijing faces, notwithstanding the sizable advances the country has made.  The Economist

Russia Backing Latin America Disinformation Campaigns.  The State Department issued a statement on Tuesday saying Russia is financing an extensive disinformation campaign to promote its interests in Latin America. The statement said the Kremlin has worked with media companies “to undermine support for Ukraine” in countries including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. The U.S. has identified three Russian companies that have coordinated the efforts: the Social Design Agency (SDA), the Institute for Internet Development, and Structura.  The department says the companies have “a history of proliferating disinformation and propaganda to further Russia’s foreign influence objectives.” The three companies allegedly put together editorial teams in Latin America, which receive Russian content for publication in what the State Department called an “information laundering process.” The reports said Russia aims to convince Latin American audiences that the war against Ukraine is “just” and that they can “unite with Russia to defeat neocolonialism.” The State Department said Russia has become increasingly adept at hiding its influence behind a large network of media proxies and influencers.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Optus Outage Causes Chaos in Australia Before Services Restored.  An outage at Australia’s number two telecommunications company, Optus, left about 40% of the country’s population — about 10 million people — without internet or telephone service on Wednesday. The outage was first reported at about 4:00 a.m. local time and service was not restored until about 5:30 p.m. The outage resulted in chaos for banking, healthcare, and transportation systems and raised questions about the strength of Australia’s core infrastructure. No cause for the outage was identified, but Optus CEO Kelly Bayer Rosmarin said she does not believe a hack was responsible.  Reuters 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Blinken Visits South Korea.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in South Korea on Wednesday for talks with his South Korean counterpart set to focus on countering increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.  Blinken’s visit — which came after talks with G7 counterparts in Japan and will be followed by a stop in India — comes amid reports that Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with arms and military equipment in the hope of receiving strategic military technology capabilities in exchange. South Korea’s intelligence agency reported last week that North Korea has likely received technical assistance from Russia on preparations for another spy satellite launch attempt.  Blinken’s visit also comes amid heightened alert over possible North Korean provocations such as missile tests.  U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is also expected to visit South Korea this week.  North Korean media agency KCNA on Wednesday denounced the visits, saying that the trips would bring “a new war cloud” to the region. Reuters Barron’s

Taiwan’s Tsai Emphasizes Defense of Democracy, Warns of Misinformation Threat.  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen affirmed on Wednesday that Taiwan will defend its “hard-earned freedoms and democracy,” noting the biggest threat comes from “authoritarian regimes,” in a veiled swipe at China.  Tsai highlighted Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen defenses, including its reintroduction of a year’s mandatory military service for all Taiwanese, restructuring of the island’s military, Taiwan’s domestic submarine program, and increases in defense spending.  Tsai also warned that there is a major threat of “cognitive warfare” through misinformation and disinformation which could “exploit and drive polarization” in Taiwan’s democracy.  Experts and officials have emphasized this point ahead of January elections in Taiwan.  Tsai called for global democracies, including Taiwan, to strengthen ties to combat such threats.  South China Morning Post

China Signals Readiness to Engage Ahead of APEC Summit.  Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on Wednesday said Beijing is ready to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with the U.S. “at all levels” and repair relations.  He noted recent official interactions between the U.S. and China have sent “positive signals” regarding an “improvement” in China-U.S. relations, reiterating that stable ties and strong communication between the two countries are in the global interest.  Han added that China is against “decoupling” and “de-risking” economic policies, saying that such unilateralism and protectionism will “lead nowhere.”  Han’s comments come ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in a few days, where he is set to meet with President Joe Biden.  Xi is also expected to address a dinner for U.S> business executives while visiting the U.S. as part of efforts to calm foreign investors who are increasingly nervous about doing business in China.  South China Morning Post

E.U. Expresses Frustration with China Economic Policies.  The E.U. is warning of tougher trade policies on China if Beijing does not open up more to European businesses and stop what the bloc views as economic bullying and destabilizing actions on the global stage.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday emphasized that “there is an explicit element of rivalry” between the E.U. and China.  She noted Beijing’s “support to Russia” as having a major negative impact on E.U. relations and also accused China of backing other “destabilizing forces.”  In regards to trade, von der Leyen criticized China for engaging in “unfair and at times predatory practices” such as trade coercion, boycotts, and restricting exports of critical minerals.  E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell echoed her comments, highlighting the difficulty for European companies to access China as an “imbalance” that risks increased European demand for policies to protect itself,” saying “if China does not open, maybe we will have to close.”  The comments point to increased efforts by the E.U. to de-risk from China if such tensions persist.  The growing disquiet in the bloc comes ahead of an E.U.-China summit in Beijing, which von der Leyen said will take place in a “couple of weeks.”  South China Morning Post

China Warns Against Maritime ‘Bloc Confrontation.’  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called against “bloc confrontation,” namely through “maritime camp confrontations and zero-sum games,” in a veiled critique against the U.S.  Speaking in a pre-recorded address at a maritime governance summit in Hainan on Wednesday, Wang said historical maritime disputes should be resolved peacefully and emphasized that Beijing is ready to engage with ASEAN nations on maritime issues.  He did not overtly mention the U.S. in his remarks.  The forum came amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea, where Philippine and Chinese vessels have had tense encounters in recent weeks.  Washington is bolstering ties with Manila and other regional partners like Japan in response, which China has criticized as confrontational.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Pew Survey: U.S. Viewed More Favorably Than China in 22 of 24 Countries, Opening Largest Margin Since 2005.  A study released by the Pew Research Center on Monday indicates the U.S. is viewed more favorably than China around the world by the widest margin since Pew began conducting the survey in 2005, with the U.S. scoring its highest-ever marks relative to China in 22 of 24 countries surveyed. Pew researchers interviewed 30,000 respondents in the 24 countries between February and April. The survey showed 59% of respondents had a more positive view of the U.S., while only 28% viewed China more positively. China scored higher than the U.S. only in Kenya and Nigeria. Despite the lopsided results, China was held in reasonably high esteem overall. The gap between the U.S. and China was most pronounced in wealthier countries, narrowing in middle-income countries including Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa. The survey was weighted more heavily to wealthier nations, with middle-income countries accounting for about a third of those surveyed and no low-income country included.  South China Morning Post Associated Press 

The Americas

Dominican Republic Bolsters Security After Haitian Border Incident.  Dominican Republic government spokesperson Homero Figueroa said on Tuesday that the country will bolster security at its northern border with Haiti after a group of Haitians penetrated Dominican territory and interfered with an army patrol.  Figueroa said that the Dominican government will deploy more soldiers and vehicles to the area as a preventative measure.  Figueroa added that the incident seems to have been a “misunderstanding” by Haitian nationals about border limits. Haiti’s media, however, has reported that the Dominican troops entered the neighboring country and aimed their guns at locals. Unconfirmed footage posted on social media showed a helicopter flying over the border while Haitian and Dominican soldiers gathered close to a border wall. The Haitian government did not respond to a request for comment. Escalating gang violence and crime in Haiti has in recent months prompted the Dominican Republic to boost its border security and increase migrant deportations.  Reuters 

Africa

Refugees Fleeing Sudan’s Darfur Report Increase in Ethnic Killings.  Sudanese refugees displaced by the war between the country’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have reported a rash of ethnically-motivated killings in West Darfur as the RSF seized control of the major army base in the state capital of El Geneina. A Reuters reporter on Tuesday interviewed three men who were entering Chad at Adre, located about 17 miles west of El Geneina. The men had reportedly witnessed RSF forces and Arab militias intentionally targeting and killing members of the Masalit ethnic group in Ardamata, an outer region in El Geneina that hosts both the army base and a camp for internally displaced people (IDP). Witnesses reported seeing RSF forces at the IDP camp in Ardamata killing civilians at random, lining up men and executing them, looting and torching homes, and launching rocket-propelled grenades at escaping convoys. The RSF has not yet responded to a request for comment, and Reuters could not verify the reports. Though the RSF has denied any involvement in so-called “tribal conflicts,” and Arab tribal chiefs have rejected the idea that they are conducting ethnic cleansing, Reuters has reported that both groups systematically targeted the Masalit earlier this year.  Reuters BBC

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Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell and Brad Christian contributed to this report.

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