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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, November 29, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Military Aircraft Crashes Off Southern Japan.  A U.S. military aircraft carrying six people crashed on Wednesday off southern Japan.  Coast guard officials confirmed one person was killed in the crash.  The status of the five other people on the tilt-rotor V-22 Osprey was not immediately known.  A coast guard spokesman said the Osprey had left from the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Yamaguchi prefecture and was traveling to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa.  Japanese Vice Defense Minister Hiroyuki Miyazawa said the aircraft had attempted an emergency sea landing.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal

House Likely to Drop China Investment Controls in Defense Bill.  Congressional negotiators appear ready to jettison plans to use this year’s defense authorization bill to tighten controls on U.S. investment in Chinese technology, people familiar with the discussions say. Sources say House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry is holding up a measure that would require companies to notify the government about certain investments in China and other countries of concern. That measure would be consistent with President Biden’s executive order in August to curb spending on high-tech sectors in China, which is likely to take effect next year. The Senate overwhelmingly approved the measure in its defense bill earlier this year. McHenry opposes broad restrictions in favor of an approach that targets individual companies. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), who has sponsored a bill that sanctions individual Chinese companies, said he is not sure the broader measure is dead, however. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said he is negotiating with McHenry in good faith, but that the broader measure might be attached to a separate investment bill he is sponsoring with Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Democrat Gregory Meeks. However, divisions among Republicans on the issue appear likely to leave the Biden Administration to act alone. Bloomberg 

Pentagon Funding Strained Amid Renewed Middle East Tensions.  The U.S. military is running low on funds to adequately respond to renewed tensions in the Middle East.  The military, and the rest of the federal government, is operating on a temporary funding measure that freezes spending at the previous year’s levels.  Pentagon spokesperson Chris Sherwood said that since the recent military buildup in the Middle East in response to unrest in the region was not planned, the U.S. military has had to pull money from existing operations and maintenance accounts to pay for it.  Sherwood said this diverting of money means less funding for training, exercises, and deployments that were already planned for the year, as well as potential delays in contractual payments.  Top defense officials say that such disruptions show the impact of temporary funding measures on national security.  Politico

Turkey Signals Intent to Ratify Sweden's NATO Application 'Within Weeks'.  Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström says that his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan says that Turkey expects to ratify Sweden’s bid for NATO membership “within weeks”.  Billstrom says Fidan communicated Turkey’s intent in a phone call this week and that Turkey has not demanded any new conditions before ratifying Sweden’s application.  If Turkey follows through with the approval, Hungary would remain as the sole NATO member yet to approve Sweden’s application.  Reuters Politico

India Sets Up Investigation of Alleged Plot to Kill Sikh Leader in U.S.  Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Arindam Bagchi said on Wednesday that his government created a “high-level inquiry committee” earlier this month to investigate what senior Biden administration officials say was a plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist leader on U.S. soil. The alleged plot was so concerning that CIA Director William Burns traveled to India in August and DNI Director Avril Haines followed in October to discuss the issue, according to officials speaking on condition of anonymity. According to a U.S. official, President Joe Biden stressed the seriousness of the issue in a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 summit in September, warning of potential harm to bilateral relations if such threats persist. Sources say federal prosecutors expect to file a new indictment against Nikhil Gupta, an Indian national charged in June with paying a hitman to kill Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, general counsel for the New York-based Sikhs for Justice, who is both a U.S. and Canadian citizen. The sources say Gupta, who is no longer in the U.S., allegedly conspired with others, at least one of whom is believed to be an Indian official.  The plot was foiled in June, shortly after the assassination of a Sikh separatist in Canada, which Ottawa has accused New Delhi of being involved in.  Washington Post Associated Press Reuters 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Increasing Push for Another Extension of Israel-Hamas Ceasefire.  There is growing pressure for Israel and Hamas to further extend the current ceasefire in Gaza to allow for more hostage releases and the distribution of more aid in the territory.  The pause is currently set to expire on Thursday.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday ahead of his trip to Israel and the West Bank that the Biden administration wants an extension to the ceasefire.  He also said that the U.S. wants to start discussions on the future of Gaza following the conflict, describing the need to plan for “the day after, and the day after the day after.”  The Biden administration has said the Palestinian Authority is the best choice to administer a post-Hamas Gaza.  Group of Seven foreign ministers and E.U. officials have expressed similar sentiments about an extension of the ceasefire and the need to address the future of Gaza.  An Israeli official speaking on condition of anonymity told The Washington Post that Israel expects an extension of the ceasefire by “another two to three days.”  However, the official said that the pause will not “lead to a permanent ceasefire” and that Israel still has the “goal of removing Hamas from its rule in Gaza.”  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likewise said on Tuesday that the current ceasefire is focused on securing the release of hostages taken by Hamas and that once they are freed, Israel will resume military actions to remove Hamas from power until Gaza “will no longer constitute a threat to the State of Israel.”  Israel’s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir added that “stopping the war = breaking apart the government.”  Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal 

China’s Foreign Minister Leading U.N. Security Council Meeting on Israel-Hamas Conflict.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will lead a U.N. Security Council meeting in New York on Wednesday on the conflict in Gaza. Beijing said the meeting will be “high level,” but it was not clear who will attend. Earlier this month, China oversaw the adoption of a resolution calling for “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting between Israel and Hamas but could not resolve differences on language calling for a ceasefire or condemnation of Hamas. Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization Vice President Victor Gao, a Middle East expert, said the rare decision to have China’s top diplomat chair a council meeting reflects Beijing’s desire to play a positive role in ending the conflict. But James Dorsey, a senior fellow specializing in Middle East studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, questioned whether China can do much because it is not “the decisive player” on the ground.  South China Morning Post 

Hamas Official Invites Elon Musk to Visit Gaza, See “Massacres and Destruction.”  Hamas senior official Osama Hamdan on Tuesday invited tech billionaire Elon Musk to visit Gaza to “see the extent of the massacres and destruction” caused by the Israeli military actions in the territory. His comments came after Musk’s trip to Israel on Tuesday, during which he toured areas that Hamas attacked on October 7.  He also struck an agreement with Israel to have Starlink provide communications services in Gaza, with the approval of the Israeli government.  Speaking at a press conference in Beirut, Hamdan said Musk's visit to Gaza would be done “in compliance with the standards of objectivity and credibility” so that the plight of the people of Gaza could be understood. Hamdan also urged President Joe Biden to cease supplying Israel with weapons and called on foreign nations to deploy specialized civil defense teams to aid in the retrieval of bodies beneath rubble in the Gaza Strip.  Musk has not responded to Hamdan’s comments.  Musk’s trip to Israel came amid concerns about rising antisemitism on his social media platform X, formerly called Twitter.  Al Jazeera Reuters The Guardian

Turkey’s Erdogan Says Israel Must Be Tried in International Courts for Crimes in Gaza.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday that Israel must be held accountable in international courts for what he said are war crimes committed in Gaza. Turkey said that In a phone call with Guterres ahead of today’s U.N. Security Council meeting in New York on Gaza, Erdgogan discussed the “expectations of the international community regarding Israel’s unlawful attacks,” access to humanitarian aid in Gaza, and efforts to achieve a lasting peace. Turkey said Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan would attend the Security Council meeting.  Israel, which is battling Hamas following the Oct 7 attacks that killed 1200 Israelis, rejects the claim that it is guilty of war crimes and says it is acting in self-defense against an enemy committed to Israel’s destruction.  Reuters 

Former Israeli PM Calls for Netanyahu’s Removal.  Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak is calling for the removal of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him “unfit to lead” and manage the current crisis facing Israel.  In an opinion piece published in Haaretz, Barak, who also served as foreign minister and a military general, argued that Netanyahu cannot handle the complexity of issues related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, including international criticism of Israeli military actions in Gaza and tensions with the U.S.  Therefore, Barak says that Netanyahu “must go before the consequences of his flaws become irreversible” and that a new national unity government “without Netanyahu and the extreme right” should be formed.  Al Jazeera Haaretz

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Publishes Unverified Footage of Frigate Launching Cruise Missile Attack.  The Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that a Russian frigate in the Black Sea launched four Kalibr cruise missiles that hit Ukrainian military infrastructure targets overnight.  The ministry posted videos allegedly showing the missile launches.  Reuters said it was unable to verify the claim.  Ukraine’s Southern Defense said that the missile threat level remains “high.”  Reuters 

Russian Submarines Remain Active in Black Sea Amid Poor Weather.  Ukrainian defense officials reported on Tuesday that two Russian submarines, both capable of firing up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles, remain active in the Black Sea despite poor winter weather conditions which have forced Moscow to remove some naval assets from the area.  Ukraine’s Southern Defense added that the missile threat level remains “high.”  Moscow has previously used Kalibr missiles against Ukraine in devastating strikes. Russia usually has at least two or three submarines in the Black Sea. Kyiv Independent

Russia’s Kerch Bridge Barriers Destroyed by Black Sea Storm.  Open source researchers reported on X that intense weather conditions in the Black Sea region have destroyed barriers installed by Russia to protect the Kerch Bridge and Sevastopol Bay. Ukrainian intelligence has said that the barriers were constructed to shield against drone attacks.  Severe winter storms in the Black Sea region and southern Ukraine have destroyed infrastructure in coastal southern Russia and occupied Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian Parliament Head Dismisses ‘Rumors’ of Tensions Between Government, Military.  Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk on Tuesday dismissed “rumors” of tensions between Ukraine’s government and its military, telling Politico that such “Russian propaganda” is an attempt to damage Ukrainian unity. Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky disagreed with Ukraine’s senior general, Valery Zaluzhny, who said the war with Russia had reached a stalemate.  Politico

Slovak Truckers to Blockade Crossing with Ukraine.  Slovakia’s Union of Slovak carriers (UNAS) announced that they will block the Vyšné Nemecké crossing on the border in western Ukraine starting on December 1.  The Slovak truckers will follow Polish truckers and farmers who have blockaded crossings between Poland and Ukraine since November 6.  The Polish truckers believe they are at a disadvantage to Ukrainian companies offering transport services in the E.U. at lower prices and are demanding the bloc reinstate a permit system for truckers engaged in Ukraine-E.U. trade, with exemptions for humanitarian aid and military supplies.  Some trade traffic disrupted by the Polish protests has been redirected through Slovakia.  Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

New Senate Bill Would Remove FBI Warrant Requirement from Section 702.  A bipartisan bill was introduced in the Senate on Tuesday to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act without requiring that the FBI obtain a search warrant for 702 database searches.  The bill co-sponsored by Sens. Mark Warner and Marco Rubio, and supported by Lindsey Graham, is the third piece of legislation introduced in the past month to extend the controversial surveillance provision.  Unlike a House-Senate bill introduced in early November by strong privacy advocates, the Warner-Rubio legislation would not require warrants prior to FBIS searches of NSA data holdings for information on U.S. citizens.  The Biden administration has argued that the warrant requirement would cripple a vital intelligence tool.  The Senate bill does prohibit U.S. searches solely to find evidence of a crime.  It also compels the FBI to make an annual report to Congress about how the bureau accesses FISA data.  The Senate bill, which would extend Section 702 for 12 years, complicates the timetable for congressional action to renew the provision less than five calendar weeks before it is set to expire.  The Record

Hackers Responsible for Recent Breach of Israeli Tech Firm Say They Will Observe Pause.  A hacker group with links to Iran has announced it will pause its cyber operations against Israel during the current ceasefire in fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas.  In a post on Telegram, the group said it would stop posting stolen data “for the duration of this ceasefire” but added it would resume leaking data after the pause in fighting ends.  The group leaked customer data from Signature-IT, an Israeli technology company, following an attack that affected 40 Signature-IT e-commerce customers in Israel.  The company notified the Israel National Cyber Directorate that the hac exposed credit-card data.  The directorate reported that the hackers caused temporary disruptions of websites from Israeli retailers and the state archives.  Radware, an Israel-based cybersecurity company and Signature-IT customer, said a data leak exposed “limited commercial information,” but no customer security or cloud service operations and configurations data were exposed.  The hackers also leaked data from IKEA Israel, including customers’ personal data but no credit-card information.   Israel’s Innovation Authority, which provides funding and assistance for technology companies, said the Signature-IT hack exposed some data that appears to be outdated and unclassified.  Wall Street Journal

Amazon Unveils Faster Second-Generation AI Training Chip, New ‘Q’ AI Assistant.  Amazon on Tuesday announced a new AI chip named Trainium2, a second-generation version that is four times faster than its predecessor and twice as energy efficient.  The Trainium release comes weeks after competitor Microsoft revealed a new AI chip called Maia.  Amazon Web Services (AWS) CEO Adam Selipsky said the company will offer the new training chip next year.  Selipsky also announced a new AWS chatbot called ‘Q,’ which is designed to assist those who use AWS at work, including coders, IT administrators, and business analysts.  The chatbot responds to written requests and can be used by developers to write code, answer questions about AWS cloud services for administrators, and generate business reports from QuickSight, a business intelligence platform in AWS.  Selipsky’s rollout of new products included AWS’ fourth custom central processor chip, Graviton4, which it said is 30 percent faster than its predecessor. Microsoft recently announced its own custom chip, Cobalt, designed to compete with Amazon's Graviton series.  Wired Reuters

UAE University Signs Cooperation Agreement with Chinese Lunar Research Station Project.  A United Arab Emirates (UAE) university has signed on as a partner in China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project to construct a permanent base at the moon’s south pole by the mid-2030’s.  An initiative earlier this year by the UAE to engage China in a rover mission to the moon was canceled due to U.S. technology sanctions.  The memorandum was signed last week by the University of Sharjah and China’s Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL) as the university hosted the Arabic Conference of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences.  The memorandum calls for the parties to collaborate in lunar science and other project elements and brings ILRS participants to more than a dozen.  Non-government organizations also are involved in the ILRS, including the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, the National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, the International Lunar Observatory Association (ILOA) in the U.S., and Switzerland’s nanoSPACE.  South China Morning Post

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Beijing Slams Taiwan’s DPP Over Cross-Strait ‘Chaos’, Warns of Rising Risk of War if 1992 Consensus Not Heeded.  Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhua said today that Taiwanese “separatists” are “incompatible with peace” and “a source of chaos” affecting stability in the Asia-Pacific. He called for a return to the 1992 consensus that “embodies the one-China principle,” which Beijing views as the basis to cross-Strait relations.  China describes Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President William Lai Ching-te, the front-runners to succeed Tsai in the presidential election January 13, as pro-independence separatists. Chen also reiterated Beijing’s “strong opposition” to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  South China Morning Post 

Middle East

Section 702 Cited as Critical Component in Thwarting Weapons Parts Sales to Iran.  Surveillance authorities granted by Section 702 allowed the U.S. intelligence community to block sales of weapons parts to Iran in recent years, according to intelligence officials speaking to Politico.  The CIA and other intelligence components conducted electronic monitoring of foreign weapons manufacturers’ communications that led to the interruption of several advanced weapons parts shipments to Iran by multiple routes – land, air, and sea.  The operations focused on preventing Tehran from strengthening its ballistic missile program and from expanding its support to insurgent conflicts in the region, including the war between Hamas and Israel.  Regarding the interdiction of weapons parts, one official said “it wasn’t one specific action. It was a number of actions.”  The official added, “in at least one instance, if not more, specific sales were stopped either before they went or while they were en route.”  Section 702 provisions allowed the intelligence agencies to use information acquired from other collection operations to interrogate the 702 database and extract details, including cost, timing, and size, that allowed the weapons sales to be blocked.  Politico

Africa

Burkina Faso says Attack by Thousands of Rebels Repelled.  Burkina Faso’s state broadcaster reported Tuesday that over 3,000 insurgents attempted to seize the northeastern town of Djibo and that 400 of the rebels were killed in an hours-long battle with security forces.  Djibo is located 130 miles from Burkina Faso’s capital of Ouagadougou, close to the border with Mali.  The town has reportedly been under siege by jihadist rebels for months.  It was not immediately clear how many security forces or civilians were killed in the attack, though the UN Human Rights Office said at least 40 civilians were killed.  In recent years, Burkina Faso has been rocked by jihadi attacks, coups, and violence.  The Burkinabe government only controls about half of the country.  Burkina Faso demanded France withdraw its military forces stationed in the country earlier in the year and has increasingly turned to Russia and its Wagner Group for security.  Associated Press Barron's BNN

Sierra Leone Arrests 13 Military Officials Over Failed Coup.’  Sierra Leone arrested 13 military officers and one civilian accused of being involved in attacks against the country’s main military barracks and prisons, which Information Minister Chernor Bah described as a “failed coup.”  The attacks in the capital of Freetown killed an estimated 20 people and resulted in the escape of over 2,000 inmates from the city’s central prison.  Authorities say many of the attackers are in hiding or still at large.  The attacks came after Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio was reelected to a second term in a disputed vote in June.  Associated Press Bloomberg New York Times 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, Bruce Wilmot, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report. 

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