10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, November 22, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
South Korea Suspending Part of Military Agreement Over North Korea Spy Satellite Launch. South Korea on Wednesday suspended part of a military agreement it signed with North Korea in 2018 after Pyongyang claimed it successfully launched its first spy satellite into orbit. North Korean state media reported that the Malligyong-1 satellite was launched on a Chollima-1 rocket from the Sohae satellite launch facility on Tuesday. Pyongyang had notified Japan that it was planning a satellite launch attempt between Wednesday and December 1. South Korea’s military said it believed North Korea launched a reconnaissance satellite in the latest attempt. South Korea and Japan said they could not immediately confirm whether a North Korean satellite was in orbit, and the Pentagon said it is still assessing the reported launch. Despite the lack of independent confirmation on the success of the launch, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol responded by approving the suspension of part of the inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement regarding aerial surveillance. South Korea’s Defense Ministry confirmed the move and said that aerial surveillance will resume near the two Koreas’ border. The launch came as a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine and aircraft carrier both entered the region. It also followed a September meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin where Putin promised to support Pyongyang’s satellite program. Seoul says North Korea likely received technical assistance from Moscow for the operation as part of wider cooperation that includes the delivery of North Korean munitions to Russia. Reuters
White House says Iran Potentially Considering Sending Ballistic Missiles to Russia. The White House said on Tuesday that Iran may be considering giving ballistic missiles to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that in return for the missiles, Russia is offering Tehran “unprecedented defense cooperation” in areas like missiles, electronics, and air defense. Iran is also reportedly seeking to purchase billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia including attack helicopters, radars, and combat trainer aircraft. Kirby noted that Iran has already provided Russia with drones, guided aerial bombs, and artillery munitions for use in Ukraine. Additionally, Kirby said Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries are planning to provide air defense capabilities to either Lebanon or Iran, at Moscow’s direction. Kirby said the U.S. will monitor the situation and is ready to take appropriate action in response, including using its counterterrorism sanctions authorities against Russian individuals and entities linked to these “destabilizing transfers.” Associated Press CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. Strikes Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Following Ballistic Missile Attack on U.S. Troops. The U.S. military said it launched two series of airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Wednesday in the latest ‘tit-for-tat’ exchanges between U.S. and regional militia groups. A defense official said the strikes destroyed a Kataeb Hezbollah operations center and a Kataeb Hezbollah command and control facility near Al Anbar and Jurf al Sagr, south of Baghdad. The official said a casualty assessment is ongoing. The U.S. military also said that about 24 hours earlier, American forces at the Ain al-Asad air base west of Baghdad were attacked with a “close-range ballistic missile.” U.S. officials reported that the missile attack resulted in eight injuries and minor damage to infrastructure at the base. A U.S. AC-130 gunship responded after the attack, killing several Iranian-backed militants believed to be involved. Prior to yesterday, the U.S. response to the attacks on its forces had been limited to three strikes in Syria, but had avoided striking targets in Iraq due to the country’s delicate political situation. At least 62 U.S. personnel have been injured in the 66 reported attacks against American forces in Syria and Iraq since October 17. Reuters New York Times
Sam Altman Returning as OpenAI CEO with New Board Members. Sam Altman is returning to his role as CEO of OpenAI. The company is also appointing new board members. Bret Taylor, former chair of Twitter’s board, will serve as OpenAI’s new board chair. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo, who was one of the board members who voted to oust Altman, will be board members. Altman’s return comes after almost all of OpenAI’s approximately 770 employees threatened to quit if he was not reinstated. Bloomberg Washington Post
Navy Unveils First Cyber Strategy. The U.S. Navy released its inaugural cyber strategy on Tuesday. The strategy emphasizes “aggressively enhancing” the Navy’s cyber preparedness and focuses on seven lines of effort to bolster the cyber posture of both the Navy and Marine Corps. The lines of effort include: improve and support the cyber workforce; shift from compliance to cyber readiness; defend enterprise IT, data, and networks; secure Defense Critical Infrastructure and weapon systems; conduct and facilitate cyber operations; partner to secure the Defense Industrial Base; and foster cooperation and collaboration. The strategy expands on the two-page Navy Cyberspace Superiority Vision released last year. It was supposed to be unveiled earlier this year, but was delayed till after the Defense Department released its latest cyber strategy. The Navy has been seeking to strengthen non-kinetic capabilities and wider efforts in the digital domain. BreakingDefense DefenseScoop The Record U.S. Department of the Navy
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Approves Hamas Hostage Release Deal, Four-Day Ceasefire. The Israeli government and Hamas on Wednesday agreed to a four-day ceasefire and the release of 50 women and children being held hostage in Gaza in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel. Qatar led negotiations on the deal. An Israeli official and senior Hamas official separately told reporters that the ceasefire will start on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. local time (3 a.m. E.T.) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that 50 women and children being held by Hamas will be released over the course of the four-day ceasefire and also said that for every 10 additional hostages released, the truce would be extended by another 24 hours. Hamas confirmed the deal and added that hundreds of aid trucks will enter Gaza during the pause in fighting. Israel’s Justice Ministry on Wednesday released a list of 300 Palestinian prisoners that could be released for the deal, leaving open the possibility for further exchanges of prisoners for hostages beyond the four-day ceasefire. Israeli citizens have 24 hours to submit legal petitions against the release of Palestinian prisoners on the list, after which the exchange will start.
Hamas and allied groups took around 240 hostages during the October 7 attacks. The Palestinian prisoners’ rights group Addameer says that the total number of what it calls Palestinian political prisoners in Israel is 7,000. President Joe Biden celebrated the hostage release agreement, saying that "today’s deal should bring home additional American hostages” and promised to not stop negotiation efforts until all hostages in Gaza have been rescued. Both Israel and Hamas maintained the pause in fighting will not stop their broader goals in the conflict. Hamas asserted that “our fingers remain on the trigger, and our victorious fighters will remain on the look out to defend our people and end the occupation.” Netanyahu affirmed that Israel “will continue the war until we achieve all our goals. To destroy Hamas, return all our hostages and ensure that no entity in Gaza can threaten Israel.” Reuters Bloomberg CNN Financial Times Kyiv Independent Al Jazeera
Jordan Strengthens Military Presence on Border With Israel. Jordan has increased its military presence along its border with Israel in attempts to prevent the expulsion of Palestinians from Israel into Jordan. Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh has warned that attempts to force Palestinians across the Jordan River will be considered “a declaration of war” as this “constitutes a material breach” of the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. Relations between the two countries have declined since the emergence of a right-wing government in Israel. Jordan is concerned about a “Jordan-is-Palestine solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue” supported by the Israeli government as it is home to the largest population of Palestinian refugees. Khasawneh advises Israel to “steer away from any escalation in the West Bank” as this would be considered a threat to Jordan’s national security. Reuters
U.S. Considers Terrorist Designation For Houthis. The United States is reviewing “potential terrorist designations” for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi in response to its seizure of the Israeli-linked Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the southern Red Sea. In 2020, the Trump administration blacklisted the Houthis, but after concern over the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen was raised by the United Nations, aid groups, and some U.S. lawmakers, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revoked the designations in 2021. White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby has called for the immediate release of the ship and crew from a seizure that is a “flagrant violation of international law” in which “Iran is complicit.” Iran has denied involvement in the seizure. Reuters Bloomberg
OPINION - The Israel-Hamas War is Generation Z’s First Real War. Bard College Foreign Affairs and Humanities Professor Walter Russell Mead writes in The Wall Street Journal that one reason the news from Gaza has so affected the younger generation is that they have grown up thinking peace to be the norm. Mead says that for younger generations, war may have become ‘passe’, but that war always “has other ideas.” He adds that the U.S.-led world order is under attack abroad, even as Americans increasingly have abandoned their commitment to preserving it, with the inevitable result being a “return to the lawlessness and violence that marks a world war.” Mead says that in the short run, Hamas’s “propaganda machine” is using images of suffering Palestinians to thwart the Israeli effort to break its power in Gaza. Mead concludes that the real question is whether Gen Z, as it matures, will come to understand how fragile peace is and will take on the task of defending it. If not, war “will be the force that shapes and determines their lives.” Wall Street Journal
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine says Russia Committing Fewer Troops to Avdiivka, Focusing on Southern Front. Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that Russia appears to be sending fewer troops and less military equipment for the battle for the eastern town of Avdiivka. Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported fewer Russian ground assaults and air strikes in the area in recent days, though he maintained that “the invaders are not abandoning their plans to surround Avdiivka.” He added that Ukrainian troops continue to defend the town, having repelled eight attacks on Tuesday. The head of Avdiivka’s military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said Ukrainian forces are holding defensive positions at the town. He highlighted Russia’s use of drones in attacks on the town. Ukraine’s military said that Russia is focusing more on the southern front. Elsewhere in Ukraine, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavria Group, said Russian forces on the southern front have significantly increased their assaults and airstrikes, having conducted 29 airstrikes and nearly 1,000 artillery barrages since November 21. He says that Ukrainian troops have prevented Russian advances and that Russian forces are suffering heavy losses. Russia’s Defense Ministry says that it is repelling Ukrainian attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Ukraine’s military says it has crossed the river and has established footholds on the Russian-occupied bank. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces face “difficult” defensive operations on the eastern front as cold winter weather stars, while Ukrainian troops in the south are still conducting offensive actions. Kyiv Independent Reuters Reuters
Russian Forces Claim Intercept of Ukrainian Maritime UAV’s in Black Sea. The Russian Defense Ministry reported early on Wednesday that its forces destroyed unmanned Ukrainian vessels in the west of the Black Sea heading towards annexed Crimea. Kyiv has not yet verified Russia’s claims. Ukraine has increasingly attacked Russian-occupied Crimea as part of efforts to destabilize Moscow’s southern defenses, disrupt logistics, and regain the territory, which was seized by Russia in 2014. On November 10th, a Ukrainian surface drone sank two Russian high-speed landing crafts in Crimea, and Kyiv often uses unmanned boats to attack the Crimean Bridge. Kyiv Independent
Germany Pledges 1.3 Billion Euros in New Military Aid for Ukraine. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday a new 1.3-billion-euro ($1.42 billion) military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes four additional IRIS-T air defense units, Panzer anti-tank defense mines, and 20,000 155mm artillery shells. Speaking in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, Pistorius said that the package emphasizes Germany’s commitment to “sustainably and reliably” support Ukraine. Pistorius added that the artillery shells are in addition to 140,000 155mm rounds Germany has promised to deliver in 2024. It is not yet known if Berlin will provide Ukraine with long-range German Taurus missiles. This year, the German government has given Kyiv €5.4 billion. Berlin plans to provide €8 billion next year. Germany’s current budget crisis, however, could complicate that pledge. Kyiv Post Politico Reuters
U.N. Estimates Over 10,000 Civilians Killed in Ukraine. The U.N. Human Rights Office reported on Tuesday that more than 10,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The U.N. said most of the deaths were caused by explosive weapons including shells, missiles, and cluster munitions. U.N. data also showed that almost half of the civilian deaths in the last three months occurred far behind the front lines, likely due to Russia’s use of long-range missiles and the late explosion of abandoned ordinances. Over a third of victims whose ages were confirmed were over 60, supporting data showing that older people who may be unable or unwilling to evacuate to safer areas make up a disproportionate portion of civilian casualties. The U.N. human rights mission in Ukraine asserted that the real civilian death toll is “significantly higher” than the official figure since corroboration work is ongoing, including for events at the start of the invasion, such as the battle for Mariupol. Reuters
Ukraine Opens Reconstruction Corruption Investigations. Ukrainian authorities launched investigations against two lawmakers on suspicion of attempting to bribe top reconstruction officials. The head of the Ukraine State Agency of Restoration and Infrastructure Development was allegedly offered bribes to secure state funds for reconstruction projects. Ukrainian authorities did not name any of those under investigation, but the move comes amid increased efforts by Kyiv to root out corruption in the government. These investigations demonstrate efforts by Ukraine to combat graft as it pursues membership in the E.U. The EU has encouraged Ukraine to “boost its fight against sleaze” as the decision to open membership negotiations approaches. Reuters
European Council Chief Michel Warns of Challenging Meeting Ahead of December’s Accession Talks. European Council chief Charles Michel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday cautioned that an upcoming EU meeting to decide whether to start official accession talks for Ukraine would be challenging. Speaking to reporters, Zelensky said that next month’s decision “is a motivational one, the decision that mobilizes.” He added that a lack of unity within the EU on the upcoming decision would bring up questions on other concerns such as sanctions on Russia and further funding for Ukraine. Michel asserted that the world requires a strong, unified EU to secure peace and prosperity. He also celebrated Ukraine for its “remarkable” progress and reassured Kyiv that he would do everything in his power to convince the bloc to encourage the launch of accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova. Moldovan President Maia Sandu, a supporter of the West who visited Kyiv along with Michel, urged the E.U. to accelerate the process and “act with one voice, showing that our collective will is unbreakable.” She and Zelensky promised to continue working on reforms within their countries to meet E.U. standards. Reuters Kyiv Independent
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Binance CEO Pleads Guilty to Money Laundering Violations. The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange and its CEO pleaded guilty yesterday to federal charges of violating anti-money laundering laws, unlicensed transmission of money, and sanctions violations. As part of settlement, Binance will pay more than $4 billion in fines and penalties, and CEO Changpeng Zhao will step down and pay $50 million in fines. Binance also agreed to the appointment of a government monitor to oversee the business. The actions against Binance and Zhao were announced at a news conference in Washington that featured Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Attorney General Merrick Garland. Garland said Zhao and other executives failed to implement “the controls that are required by U.S. law.” U.S. officials describe the agreement as the biggest-ever corporate resolution that includes charges against an executive. Following a years-long investigation, authorities alleged that Binance allowed criminal transactions on its platform, including child sex abuse, narcotics, and financing of terrorist organizations including ISIS, al Qaeda and Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades. U.S. officials hope the guilty pleas, coming on top of the recent conviction of FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried, will send a clear message to the crypto industry. CNN New York Times Reuters The Record Wall Street Journal
China Approves Broadcom-VMware Merger. Chinese regulators say they will grant conditional approval for U.S. semiconductor company Broadcom’s $61 billion takeover of U.S. software maker VMware. The companies said the deal will close on Wednesday. The merger of the U.S. chip maker and the cloud software company, one of the biggest technology mergers ever, had already been approved by the EU, UK, South Korea and Japan. China approved the combination with conditions related to how the companies sell their products in the local market, including the requirement that VMWare’s software is interoperable with Broadcom’s competitors’ hardware. China also wants the right to supervise and inspect the companies’ adherence to restrictions. Analysts generally reacted positively to the approval. Bernstein analysts wrote that China’s conditions do not appear “onerous.” Experts added that the approval of the merger could signal a thaw in relations between the U.S. and China, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco, though technology export restrictions remain a key issue. South China Morning Post
Cybersecurity Advisory Warns Thousands of Organizations Open to Citrix Vulnerability. A vulnerability in Citrix products known as “Citrix Bleed” is being exploited by nation-state hackers and cybercriminals, according to an advisory issued Tuesday by CISA, the FBI, and Australian cybersecurity authorities. Specifically, the warning drew attention to the LockBit ransomware gang’s exploitation of Citrix NetScaler products used to manage network traffic. CISA Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity Eric Goldstein told reporters that the agency has used its Ransomware Vulnerability Warning Program to alert over 300 organizations, although he said thousands of other entities are still open to intrusion. One of the targeted companies is Boeing, which suffered disruption of its parts and distribution systems after a LockBit hack earlier in November. CISA confirms that other organizations “have observed similar activity impacting their organization.” The Citrix Bleed flaw allows hackers to bypass password and multifactor authentication measures, enabling the hijacking of legitimate user sessions on NetScaler and Gateway appliances. These steps, in turn, allow “malicious actors (to) acquire elevated permissions to harvest credentials, move laterally, and access data and resources,” according to the advisory. The Record BleepingComputer
Australia Strengthening Cyber Defense After Series of Major Breaches. Following a series of recent cyberattacks, Australia announced a security overhaul on Tuesday that will include cyber health checks for small businesses, increased law enforcement funding, and mandatory reporting of ransomware attacks. The federal government will also subject telecommunications companies to more stringent cyber reporting rules that apply to critical infrastructure. Canberra will also seek migrants to supplement the cybersecurity workforce and take measures to better protect consumer data and improve coordination in preventing hacking attempts. The government will also establish an Executive Cyber Council that will work with industry leaders to share information on cybersecurity threats and improve collaboration between the public and private sectors. The $382 million (USD) plan follows a year in which almost half the country’s population of 26 million had personal information stolen in two data breaches. There have also been a number of recent cyberattacks against Australia’s critical infrastructure, including an attack at the country’s biggest port operator earlier this month that brought supply chains to a standstill. Reuters Bloomberg
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Reports Chinese Military Aircraft Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line. Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that 11 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The ministry said the warplanes included J-10 and J-16 fighters and H-6 bombers and early warning aircraft. The ministry added that the planes that crossed the median line flew into airspace near the center and southwest of Taiwan in coordination with Chinese warships conducting “joint combat readiness patrols.” The ministry said Taiwan deployed its own forces to monitor the activity. China’s defense ministry did not comment on the matter. This comes as election preparations are increasing in Taiwan in advance of the January 13 Presidential and Parliamentary elections. Candidates seeking to participate in Taiwan’s January elections have to register with the election commission this week. Reuters
Europe
Azerbaijan says French Military Support for Armenia Could Lead to New War. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Tuesday asserted that France’s decision to supply arms to Armenia could create conditions for a new war. Aliyev accused France of “supporting separatist tendencies and separatists” and that its “arming” of Armenia “implements a militaristic policy” that will inflame “revanchist forces” and heightens the risk of conflict. A French diplomatic source responded by saying that France, along with its European and U.S. allies, was engaged in efforts to secure peace in the region, based on the principles of respect for borders and sovereignty. Azerbaijan’s relations with Western countries, namely France and the U.S., which have large ethnic Armenian communities and have been sympathetic to Yerevan since Azerbaijan’s seizure of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, have significantly deteriorated. Reuters
The Americas
Costa Rica Makes First-Ever Fentanyl Gang Arrests. Costa Rican authorities said on Tuesday that they have arrested four suspected gang members — two Costa Ricans and two Colombians — for the production and trafficking of the synthetic drug fentanyl. Authorities recovered 1,100 fentanyl pills and a fentanyl laboratory in the operation, which was backed by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. This is the first known gang arrest in Costa Rica associated with fentanyl. Costa Rican Security Minister Mario Zamora said the arrests “raises alarms because it confirms the presence of fentanyl.” Violent crime in Costa Rica has surged this year with the growth being attributed to gang violence related to fentanyl trafficking. Reuters
Africa
Stampede Kills 31 People in Army Recruitment Drive in Congo-Brazzaville. Congo authorities said on Wednesday that at least 31 people were killed and more than 140 injured in a stampede on Monday night during an army recruitment drive at the Michel d’Ornano Stadium in the Republic of Congo capital of Brazzaville. The government said the recruitment drive, which began last week, would be suspended and a day of mourning observed. Al Jazeera
Food Aid for 1.4 Million People in Chad to ‘Grind to a Halt’ Soon, WFP Says. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) says it will suspend food aid to 1.4 million people in Chad in January because of a shortage of funds. The WFP said it needs $185 million to support people in Chad over the next six months. WFP Chad Country Director Pierre Honnorat said more Darfuris have fled to Chad in the last six months than in the preceding 20 years and that “we cannot let the world stand and allow our life-saving operations to grind to a halt in Chad.” The agency said financial constraints and increasing humanitarian needs previously will also force it to suspend assistance to internally displaced people and refugees from Nigeria, Central African Republic and Cameroon starting in December. Al Jazeera
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.
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