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10:00 AM ET, Monday, November 15, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

China's Xi to Meet Biden in Highly-Anticipated Talks.  Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in San Francisco on Tuesday to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco.  It is his first trip to the U.S. in six years.  He is  meeting with President Joe Biden on Wednesday morning.  Biden has said that his goal for the meeting is to restore normal communications between Beijing and Washington, including military communications.  Sources have said both sides will also announce deals on the use of artificial intelligence in autonomous weapons and cooperation on cracking down on fentanyl.  The two leaders are also likely to discuss economic issues, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the Ukraine war.  Their meeting comes amid heightened tensions between China and the U.S. on issues like Taiwan, technology, and Beijing’s relations with Russia.  Biden maintains that he is not seeking to decouple from China but wants to to change and improve Sino-U.S. economic relations.  Xi is expected to push for foreign investment amid China’s economic slowdown and uncertainty caused by expanding Chinese security rules.  Associated Press Bloomberg CNN New York Times NPR Reuters South China Morning Post

North Korea Claims Successful Tests of New Missile Engines.  North Korea said on Wednesday that it has successfully tested new solid fuel engines designed for intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said military scientists tested the first and second stages of the engines on Saturday and Tuesday, but KCNA did not say when the new system is expected to be completed. North Korea has been working to produce more powerful and more difficult-to-detect missiles that could target U.S. military bases in Guam and Japan. Cheong Seong-Chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, said Pyongyang’s claim of successful tests suggests that North Korea will test fire the missile in the coming weeks. The tests came as Russian natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov arrived in North Korea for talks over trade and technology exchanges.  Associated Press Bloomberg 

House Passes Funding Measure to Avert Government Shutdown.  The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday passed a Republican plan to continue funding of federal agencies through early next year, marking a major step towards avoiding a partial government shutdown.  The House voted 336-95 to approve the measure, which relied heavily on support from House Democrats.  The proposal must now be approved by the Senate, where leaders from both parties have signaled support.  The measure extends funding at current levels for some agencies till mid-January and for others, including the Department of Defense, until early February.  Lawmakers are still working on fiscal full-year funding plans.  The short-term spending measure also pushes off discussions on issues like border security, federal spending cuts, and Ukraine aid.  CNN Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Troops Enter Gaza’s al-Shifa Hospital.  Israeli troops have entered the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza to carry out what the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said was a “precise and targeted operation” against Hamas “in a specified area” of the facility. The IDF said its forces included medical teams and Arabic speakers who brought incubators, baby food, and medical supplies.  An Israeli military official said Israeli troops found weapons and “terror infrastructure” during the raid in the hospital.  The official did not specify what had been found or provide evidence, saying that it will be presented later.  The official also said there had been no fighting inside the hospital complex.  Hamas has denied the claims as “lies and cheap propaganda” used as “justification” for “destroying the health sector in Gaza.”  A U.S. Security Council spokesman declined to comment on the operation but said the Biden administration does not want to see fighting in a facility where people are seeking medical care.  The operation took place hours after the White House supported Israel’s assertion that Hamas is running military operations from Gaza’s hospitals, which the militant group and hospital officials have denied.  Hamas said it holds both Israel and President Joe Biden responsible for the raid on Al-Shifa.  Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Washington Post Reuters Reuters

Qatar Seeking Deal for Hostage Release and Ceasefire.  Qatar is seeking to negotiate a deal between Hamas and Israel for the release of 50 civilian hostages being held in Gaza in exchange for a three-day ceasefire in the territory, according to an official familiar with the negotiations.  Some Palestinian women and children in Israeli jails would also be released under the deal.  The official said that Hamas has generally agreed to the deal while Israel is still negotiating details.  A more comprehensive release of all hostages is not under discussion, though Hamas would have to provide a complete list of all remaining living civilian hostages it is holding for the deal.  The Qatari and Israeli governments and the Hamas political office in Doha did not comment on the matter.  Reuters

U.N. Delivers First Fuel to Gaza Since Start of Israel-Hamas War.  The U.N. on Wednesday delivered its first shipment of fuel into Gaza since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.  Tom White, director of the U.N. relief agency in Gaza, confirmed that over 23,000 liters, or half a tanker, has been delivered so far.  The delivery came after Israel approved the provision of 6,340 gallons of diesel fuel for U.N. aid trucks in Gaza.  The fuel will not be delivered to hospitals, according to a humanitarian source.  Aid organizations have warned that Gaza needs fuel for its hospitals, water and sewage systems, and communications.  White said that the current fuel approved for delivery amounts to “only 9% of what we need daily to sustain lifesaving activities.”  Reuters Axios Times of Israel 

Yemen's Houthis say they Fired Ballistic Missile Strikes at Israeli Targets.  A spokesperson for Yemen’s Houthi said on Tuesday that the group launched several ballistic missiles at various Israel military targets, including ones in the Red Sea city of Eilat.  The spokesperson said the missile attacks came 24 hours after “another military operation by drones on the same Israeli targets.” The spokesperson also asserted that the Houthis “will not hesitate to target any Israeli ship in the Red Sea or at any other place." The Israeli military reported that it had intercepted a missile close to the Red Sea on Tuesday using its “Arrow” air defense system. They did not say who shot the weapon.  Al Jazeera Reuters

U.S. Increasing Military Aid to Israel.  The Pentagon has been increasing military aid to Israel, sending more laser-guided missiles for its Apache helicopter gunships, ammunition, night-vision devices, bunker-buster munitions and vehicles. A Pentagon spokesman declined to discuss specifics, but issued a statement saying the assistance is meant to ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself. The increased aid comes amid criticism over Israeli military actions in Gaza from nongovernmental organizations, 30 of which signed a letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday urging him not to send 155mm shells in particular because they are “inherently indiscriminate.”  Bloomberg 

Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows Drop in U.S. Public Support for Israel, Majority Calls for Ceasefire.  A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that U.S. public support for Israeli military actions in Gaza is waning with a majority of respondents calling for a ceasefire.  Around 32% of respondents said “the U.S. should support Israel” when asked about the U.S. role in the fighting, marking a decrease from the 41% who said the U.S. should back Israel in an earlier poll held five days after the October 7 Hamas attacks.  Around 39% of respondents said “the U.S. should be a neutral mediator,” up from 27% a month earlier.  Only 31% of respondents said they support the U.S. sending weapons to Israel, while 43% were in opposition.  The drop in U.S. support, seen amongst both Democrats and Republicans and particularly among older respondents, comes amid increasing civilian casualties in Gaza.  Around 68% of respondents to the poll agreed that “Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate.”  Three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans in the poll supported the idea of a ceasefire.  Reuters

U.S. Official Says Seven Possibly Killed in US Airstrikes in Syria.  The U.S. assesses that up to seven people were killed in its latest air strikes against Iran-backed militia in Syria on Sunday, according to a U.S. official.  The deaths would be the first since the U.S. started retaliatory strikes against Iran-backed groups for attacks against U.S. forces in the region.  The strikes targeted a training facility close to the city of Al Bukamal, where several people may have been killed, and a safe house near the city of Mayadeen, where an additional person may have been killed. The official said that the U.S. military determined that no women or children were killed in the attacks.  Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the U.S. knows that “IRGC affiliated members” were close to the targets.  Since October 17, 59 American and coalition personnel have been wounded in at least 55 attacks in Iraq and Syria. Statements, purportedly from the groups responsible for the attacks, suggest the assaults were done in response to Washington’s support of Israel.  Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Crosses Dnipro River in Kherson Region.  Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday that it is trying to push back Russian forces along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, calling for “informational silence” as fighting continues and describing the front as “fairly fluid.”  Ukraine said on Tuesday that it established a foothold on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the river, potentially opening up a new line of attack towards Crimea.  Soldiers involved in the operation say they have established three holdings around villages on the eastern bank, cutting off a road Russia uses to supply troops in the area.  Russia conceded for the first time that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Dnipro.  Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of occupied areas in the Kherson region, said Russian forces will rain “Hell fire” on Ukrainian troops who had advanced, claiming they are “trapped” in the town of Krynki and that Russian reinforcements have been sent to the area.  An advance in Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kherson region could further pressure and strain Russian defenses.  BBC Reuters Reuters The Guardian Wall Street Journal 

Russia Launches Barrage of Missiles, Rockets, Air Strikes on Ukraine.  A Russian missile hit an apartment building in the town of Selydove in the eastern Donetsk region on Wednesday, killing at least two people.  Police say four S-300 missiles hit the town overnight, damaging several residential buildings.  The attack came as Ukraine declared an air-raid alert for its entire territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday.  The Ukrainian military said Russian forces launched 8 missile strikes and 59 air strikes and conducted 49 rocket attacks against Ukrainian troops and civilian areas over the last day.  Reuters RFE/RL

Russia Not Exporting Lancet Drones Due to High Domestic Demand.  Russia’s TASS news agency cited a senior Russian arms export official saying that Moscow is not exporting its Lancet drones because they are needed by Russian forces in Ukraine. The Lancet has emerged as one of the most effective weapons in Russia’s invasion. The suicide drones are inexpensive to produce and are capable of destroying Ukraine’s Western-donated military equipment. Alexander Mikheyev, head of the Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, told Tass that there has been a “serious increase in interest” in the Lancet abroad.  Reuters 

E.U. Provides $118 Million in Humanitarian Aid for Ukraine.  The European Commision announced on Tuesday that the E.U. has decided to provide an additional $107.2 million for humanitarian assistance operations in Ukraine and a further $10.7 million to aid Ukrainian refugees in Moldova.  This funding brings the total amount of E.U. humanitarian aid for Kyiv to $904 million.  The E.U., which is arranging private-sector donations of energy equipment, will also transfer 84 more power generators to Ukraine to counter Russia’s persistent assaults on the energy network, which are steadily intensifying ahead of winter.  Kyiv Independent European Commision

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

FBI Dismantles IPStorm Botnet Infrastructure as Hacker Pleads Guilty.  The proxy network and associated infrastructure of the IPStorm botnet has been dismantled by the FBI in the aftermath of a plea deal with the developer of the malware, Sergei Makinin, a Russian and Moldovan national.  The IPStorm malware since 2019 has infected thousands of Linux, Mac, and Android devices around the world.  The Justice Department said through a botnet of compromised devices, Makinin “sold illegitimate access to the infected, controlled devices to customers seeking to hide their Internet activities.”  The infrastructure set up by Makinin was dismantled but malware was not removed from targeted devices, which has been described as  a controversial action by the FBI in several previous botnet takedowns.  The FBI’s office in San Juan, Puerto Rico led the investigation with FBI attaches in the Dominican Republic and Spain.  The Record

OpenAI CEO Describes Vision for Creating AGI, New GPT Product Line.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said his company’s goal of developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) could receive additional financial support from its chief investor, Microsoft.  Microsoft already has invested $10 billion in OpenAI as part of a “multiyear” agreement.  In an interview with the Financial Times, Altman noted the expense of driving toward AGI – where computers rival humans in intelligence:  “There’s a long way to go, and a lot of compute to build out between here and AGI . . . training expenses are just huge.”   Speaking of the partnership with Microsoft, Altman said he hoped it would ensure “that we both make money on each other’s success, and everybody is happy”.  Altman said his own efforts are divided between research into achieving superintelligence, and creating the computing power needed for that goal.  He said, “the vision is to make AGI, figure out how to make it safe . . . and figure out the benefits.”  Altman also referred to the latest OpenAI product offering, a suite of new tools that include ChatGPT versions that can be customized for specific applications along with the GPT Store, a platform for the best apps.  Altman said these multiple offerings actually represent “channels into our one single product, which is intelligence, magic intelligence in the sky. I think that’s what we’re about.”  Financial Times

Congressional China Committee Issues Report on Chip Export Control Effectiveness.  China receives US equipment to make advanced chips despite new rules – A House committee on China has issued a report highlighting that Chinese companies continue to acquire U.S. chip-making equipment despite new export controls.  The report noted that Chinese importers have been able to purchase equipment – even that capable of fabricating semiconductors below the Commerce Department threshold – “if they claim it is being used on an older production line, and with limited capacity for end-use inspections.”  The report added that “it is difficult to verify the equipment is not being used to produce more advanced chips."  Regarding supplies of chip-making equipment, the report describes how China stockpiled equipment from the U.S., Japan, and the Netherlands during the grace periods before various curbs went into effect.  As detailed by the report, from January to August of this year, China imported $3.2 billion of semiconductor manufacturing machines from the Netherlands, a 96.1 percent increase over the same period in 2022.  The figure for all countries over the first eight months of this year, China's imports totaled $13.8 billion.  The report does not make specific recommendations, but urges an annual evaluation by the General Accountability Office of the effectiveness of chipmaking export controls.  Reuters

Taiwan Cracking Down on Fishing Boats with China’s BeiDou Satnav Systems.  Taiwan’s  fisheries agency said that Taiwanese authorities will strengthen enforcement of its ban on China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system after its equipment was found on a fishing boat seized for trafficking narcotics. The agency said fishers will be fined and their equipment confiscated if they violate the ban, which was imposed in 2018 due to security concerns. The BeiDou system, operated by the China National Space Administration, was developed in response to the Chinese military’s demand for an alternative to GPS, which is run by the U.S. military. The system was expanded for commercial use worldwide in 2020. Not all BeiDou users are tracked, as navigation chips without the built-in identification system are available outside China. The U.S. military reportedly has been using BeiDou as a backup navigation system, along with Russia’s Glonass and Europe’s Galileo, if GPS becomes unavailable.  South China Morning Post 

Australia Reports Surge in Hacks, State-Sponsored Cyber Groups Attacking Critical Infrastructure.  The Australian Cyber Security Centre said in its annual report on Wednesday that state-sponsored hackers have increased their assaults on Australian critical infrastructure, businesses and homes. The agency said Australia’s recent defense agreement with Britain and the U.S. likely has made the country more of a target. According to the agency, reports of cybercrime increased 23% to more than 94,000 in the financial year to June and it estimated that there is a hack on Australian entities every six minutes. The report said a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group highlighted by the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and Microsoft in May as spying on U.S. critical infrastructure organizations could also be targeting Australia’s infrastructure, including telecommunications, energy and transportation. Monash University Cybersecurity Professor Nigel Phair said cyberattacks against Australia will continue to increase until organizations put more effort into security.  Reuters 

New Breed of Supercomputer to Process Two Quintillion Operations Per Second.  Intel and Hewlett Packard are producing what will be the most powerful supercomputer. The Aurora supercomputer, housed at the Energy Department’s Argonne National Laboratory, will be matched with artificial intelligence to assist with a host of endeavors, including analysis of brain activity, cancer research, vaccines, designing batteries that charge faster and last longer, climate change study, cosmology, encryption and nuclear fusion. The Aurora is among a new type of machine called an “exascale” computer which can perform one quintillion operations a second. It is the size of two tennis courts and weighs 600 tons. Scientists at Argonne said that when Aurora becomes fully operational in 2024, that it will be able to perform two quintillion operations a second. More such supercomputers are on their way. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is building a $600 exascale computer called El Capitan, which is expected to be deployed next year. A spokesman for the lab said it eventually could exceed Aurora’s capability. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said his company is spending more than $1 billion to build an exascale supercomputer called Dojo. Meanwhile, computer scientists in the United Kingdom and elsewhere are attempting to build their own exascale computers.  Wall Street Journal

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan Opposition Parties Agree to Unite in Presidential Election.  Taiwan’s two largest opposition political parties have agreed to cooperate in the country’s presidential election January 13. The larger Nationalist Party, which favors closer relations with Beijing, said it will work with the People’s Party to increase the opposition’s chances against Vice President Lai Ching-te, who is leading in the polls, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which has forged closer ties with the U.S. Taiwan’s National Chengchi University political scientist Lev Nachman said the joint effort will present a serious challenge to Lai and that he expects a “big spike” in support for the opposition. The opposition parties said in a joint statement today that they continue working on the details of their coalition, including who will lead the ticket, and that more information will be provided on Saturday.  Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera Financial Times Reuters South China Morning Post

China’s Xi Calls for Stronger Economic Ties with Taiwan.  China’s Xinhua News Agency reported that President Xi Jinping on Tuesday called for increased economic ties with Taiwan before heading for the APEC summit. In a letter to a summit of entrepreneurs in Nanjing, Xi said business people should help promote the “peaceful and integrated development” of relations between China and Taiwan and realize the “reunification and rejuvenation” of China.  His comments contrast with previous fiery rhetoric about the Taiwanese government and come as the U.S. and China seek to manage relations.  Bloomberg

Russian Natural Resources Minister Visits North Korea.  Russia’s natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov is leading a Russian delegation’s visit to Pyongyang, North Korea.  North Korean state media said the Russian delegation met with North Korean officials to discuss economic and scientific cooperation.  Kozlov said he wanted to build off of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s earlier meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and also praised Pyongyang’s “full support” for Moscow in regional and international issues.  Koslov’s visit coincided with North Korea announcing successful missile engine tests and South Korea holding a joint aerial exercise with the U.S. involving an American B-52 strategic bomber.  Kozlov arrived in Pyongyang on Tuesday as U.N. member states enforcing the Korean War armistice met in Seoul to express concern about China and Russia’s support for North Korea and Pyongyang’s expanding military capabilities.  Reuters Barron’s Euronews

Japan Conducting Nationwide Military Drills.  Japan is conducting 11-day nationwide military exercises, called 05JX, to prepare its forces for a potential conflict in East Asia.  As part of the drills, which will end on Monday, a Japanese Apache helicopter flew over an uninhabited island in Okinawa on Wednesday in a simulated attack against invading forces.  The exercises will also include an air defense exercise in northern Japan and simulated attacks on nuclear reactors.  Such military exercises are set to become more frequent and expand in scope as Japan continues its military buildup and increase defense spending over the next five years.  Reuters 

Indonesia Hosts ASEAN Defense Chiefs.  Indonesia is hosting ASEAN defense ministers for a 2-day meeting in Jakarta.  At the opening of the annual meeting, defense chiefs, namely those from Indonesia and Malaysia, called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the increased delivery of humanitarian assistance to the territory.  Defense ministers also called for a cessation of violence in Myanmar and concrete progress towards a peaceful, durable solution in the country, where insurgent groups battling the military junta are gaining momentum.  The ASEAN defense ministers also underscored the need to exercise “self-restraint” in the South China Sea and the implementation of a code of conduct in the disputed waterway.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is meeting ASEAN counterparts at the meeting on Wednesday.  Representatives from Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia will join on Thursday.  ASEAN Associated Press Reuters

Europe

NATO Replacing AWACS Surveillance Planes with Modified Boeing 737s.  NATO is replacing its aging fleet of Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes with a militarized version of the Boeing 737 commercial jet.  NATO has used the AWACS as flying radar towers since 1982.  The modified Boeing 737 jets are set to have a radar range of over 250 miles, meaning they can monitor an area of around 115,000 square miles, roughly the size of Poland.  NATO will reportedly replace its 14 AWACS planes with six Boeing E-7A Wedgetail planes, with the contract to be signed in 2024 and the first jet to be operational by 2031.  The U.S., Britain and Turkey either fly the Wedgetail or plan to operate it.  Reuters 

Middle East

France Issues Arrest Warrant for Syria’s Assad Over Chemical Weapons.  French judges issued arrest warrants for Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, his brother Maher al-Assad, and two other senior Syrian officials accused of directing the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians in Syria, according to a judicial source.  The arrest warrants refer to charges of complicity in crimes against humanity and complicity in war crimes.  The arrest warrants are related to chemical attacks in the town of Douma and the Eastern Ghouta district in August 2013 which reportedly killed over 1,000 people.  They are the first international arrest warrants over the Ghouta attack and it is the first international arrest warrant issued for the Syrian head of state.  Syria denies using chemical weapons, though a U.N. investigation found that the Syrian government used the nerve agent sarin in an April 2017 attack and has also used chlorine as a weapon.  Associated Press France 24 Reuters 

Africa

American Official Says U.S. to Restart Ethiopia Aid Program After Suspension.  A top U.S. official said on Tuesday that Washington will resume supplying food aid to millions of Ethiopians in December after a five-month pause due to allegations that large amounts of food were being stolen.  The U.S. Agency for International Development said it is committing to a “one-year trial period” of the resumption of aid.  USAID said the resumption comes after diplomatic engagement with Ethiopia led to “widespread and substantial reforms” of the country’s food assistance system.  Ethiopia has agreed to strengthening program monitoring and oversight and other operational changes to improve aid deliveries.  Washington Post Associated Press Reuters

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Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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