10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, January 3, 2023
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
The West Badly Needs More Missiles—but the Wait to Buy Them Is Years Long. Kongsberg, a Norwegian defense company, is struggling to meet surging demand for its Nasams (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) due to heightened global security threats, particularly from Russia and China. Nasams, known for its ability to intercept drones, helicopters, and other airborne threats from a significant distance, is facing supply chain challenges and labor shortages in the defense industry. The modern complexity of weapons systems, requiring thousands of parts and relying on intricate supply networks, poses significant challenges. Kongsberg, like many Western defense firms, designs and assembles its weapons but sources components from over 1,500 suppliers. Nasams alone involves a supply chain spanning two continents, with the U.S. defense contractor RTX providing crucial radar and missile components. This supply crunch affects not only Nasams but also various missile categories, causing delays in production and delivery of essential defense assets. Western defense companies are struggling to expand production capacity, and even though defense budgets have increased, they face significant supply constraints, raising concerns among military officials about their ability to respond effectively to evolving threats. Wall Street Journal
Hamas Used Gaza Hospital as a Command Center, U.S. Intelligence Says. According to declassified American intelligence, U.S. spy agencies have determined that Hamas and another Palestinian group used Gaza's Al-Shifa Hospital for commanding forces and holding hostages. In November, the Israeli military launched an operation to seize control of the hospital, citing Hamas's alleged construction of a vast complex beneath it. Critics argued that the military operation disrupted vital medical services without clear evidence of Hamas using the hospital as a command post. The latest intelligence reveals that Hamas fighters had evacuated the complex days before the Israeli operation, destroying documents and electronics as they left. While the rescue of hostages was hoped for, none were found, though the bodies of two hostages were discovered nearby. The U.S. intelligence assessment supports the Israeli claim that the hospital was used by both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad for military purposes. New York Times
Xi Jinping Quietly Shaking Up China’s Military. Experts say Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent removals of nine high-ranking officers indicate Xi’s effort to root out corruption and other misconduct in China’s military is gaining momentum and that the effort is focused on politically sensitive agencies responsible for weapons development and running military installations. Ou Si-fu of the Institute for National Defense and Security in Taiwan said the shake-up could slow the development of some weapons or facilities but that the potential for such delays is likely to be limited. University of California San Diego Professor Tai Ming Cheung said the dismissals indicate that the Communist Party is willing to crack down to ensure the long-term health of the country’s critical technological sectors. Former CIA analyst Christopher Johnson said Xi’s willingness to endure “the embarrassment of such a massive purge” shows his determination to ensure that his military can “fight and win wars.” New York Times
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israeli strike in Lebanon kills Hamas Deputy Political Leader. An Israeli drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon killed Saleh al-Arouri, a Hamas deputy political leader, on Tuesday. The drone strike occurred in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, which is known to be a stronghold for Hezbollah. Hamas confirmed Arouri’s death, along with six other Hamas members, including two military commanders. An Israeli government spokesman said that Arouri was killed in a “surgical strike against the Hamas leadership” not targeted against Lebanon or even Hezbollah. Despite this, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati criticized the strike and accused Israel of trying “to drag Lebanon into… confrontation.” Hezbollah also condemned the killing of Arouri, saying it will not go unpunished and that it was a “dangerous attack on Lebanon.” An Israeli military spokesman said that Israel is on “high readiness” for any attacks following the killing of Arouri. Iran reacted to the assassination by saying that it proved Israel has not achieved its goals in Gaza. Arouri helped to create the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing that was responsible for the October 7 attacks. He was reportedly in Lebanon acting as a connection between Hamas and Hezbollah. Associated Press Al Jazeera BBC Bloomberg Reuters Washington Post
Hamas Leader killed in Beirut was linchpin of relations with Iran, Hezbollah. The killing of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, suspected to be an Israeli strike, is a significant blow to Hamas. Arouri played a key role in aligning Hamas with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Arouri had strong ties to Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, facilitating Hamas's military activities. Arouri had advocated for a united front against Israel, which included cooperation with Hezbollah and other Palestinian factions. Hamas has said Arouri played a key role in orchestrating the October 7 attacks on Israel. While his death will hinder Hamas's diplomatic efforts, it's unlikely to substantially impact the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. His killing raises tensions in an already volatile region but may not trigger a broader war unless more top leaders in various organizations are targeted. Wall Street Journal New York Times
Israel steps up bombardment of Gaza amid fears of conflict spreading. Israeli forces intensified their attack on Gaza while tensions spread to Lebanon following the assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, allegedly by Israel. This incident highlights the expanding reach of the Israel-Hamas conflict, involving the West Bank, Hezbollah forces along the Lebanon-Israel border, and Red Sea shipping lanes. Hamas leader Hossam Badran vowed to continue the battle against Israel, while Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah warned of a "severe reaction" if Israel carries out assassinations on Lebanese soil. The United Nations expressed concerns that any escalation could have devastating consequences for both sides of the border. Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi emphasized the need for a Gaza ceasefire and regional conflict prevention. In Gaza, Israeli forces engaged in fierce battles with militants, particularly in Khan Younis. They bombed the Al-Nusseirat refugee camp, urging residents to evacuate. Israeli airstrikes and tank attacks also targeted the Al-Bureij refugee camp, with Hamas claiming to have killed ten Israeli soldiers and destroyed military vehicles. The Gaza conflict, initiated by a Hamas attack on Israeli towns, has resulted in significant casualties and extensive destruction, with a Palestinian death toll exceeding 22,000. Iran viewed Saleh al-Arouri's killing as a motivation for resistance against Israel. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for international intervention to resolve the conflict, warning of the risk of further regional instability. Reuters
IDF says Israel unrest from judicial overhaul likely influenced Hamas attack. The spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, suggested that the domestic rift in Israel over the government's judicial overhaul plan may have played a role in influencing Hamas's decision to attack on October 7. The comments followed the Israeli high court's rejection of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's law aimed at limiting the court's power over government decisions. The controversial legislation had sparked extensive protests and threats of reservists boycotting military service. Hagari stated that the rift's impact would be clarified in a comprehensive inquiry. The court's decision comes amid a sensitive period for Netanyahu, facing a corruption trial and calls for resignation over the government's handling of the October 7 Hamas attack and ensuing hostage crisis. Netanyahu's Likud party criticized the court's ruling, while opponents of the overhaul welcomed it as a victory for democracy. Washington Post
British, Cypriot aid to Gaza bypasses Israel via Egypt. Britain and Cyprus have jointly sent 87 tonnes of aid to Gaza via Egypt, introducing a new route that bypasses screening checks in Israel. The aid was delivered to Port Said in Egypt on Monday for transfer to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing. The initiative involves security checks of aid in Cyprus by government authorities, including from Israel. While this falls short of Cyprus's goal for a direct one-way aid corridor to Gaza, it provides an alternative to accelerate aid by eliminating security checks in Israel. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides hailed it as a workable alternative for additional humanitarian aid to Gaza. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron expressed commitment to supporting Gaza, emphasizing the need for more aid. Israel, amidst its ongoing offensive on Gaza, has stated willingness to allow ships to deliver aid to the enclave. However, the direct sea route is currently not executable due to unmet security requirements. Reuters
Senators head to Israel for planned meeting with Netanyahu. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and several Senate Intelligence Committee members plan to visit the Middle East, with a meeting scheduled with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Gillibrand's objectives for the trip include assessing the current threat posed by Hamas and exploring options for ending the conflict that began with the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The bipartisan delegation aims to engage allies in discussions about the path to peace and the fight against terrorism in the region, with a focus on expanding partnerships through the Abraham Accords. Additionally, the Senate is considering a supplemental bill to provide aid to Israel, potentially combined with provisions related to Ukraine, Taiwan, and border security. Politico
Maersk to continue avoiding Red Sea route. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on Tuesday that their container ships will continue to avoid the Red Sea route and reroute shipping via Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope. The decision came after Yemen’s Houthis attacked a Maersk ship. Maersk had paused all Red Sea sailings for 48 hours after the attack. Hapag-Lloyd stated that its vessels would continue to divert away from the Red Sea until at least January 9 and will decide then whether to continue re-routing. The Suez Canal is crucial for global container ship cargo, and redirecting ships around the southern tip of Africa is expected to incur additional fuel costs of up to $1 million for each round trip between Asia and northern Europe. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Iran’s Red Sea Power Play Raises Fears of Trade Disruption (updated). Iran’s decision to send a warship to the Red Sea, raises tensions in the region and is the most audacious challenge yet to US forces who are engaged in protecting a key trade route. While Iran's warship is no match for the US-led maritime task force patrolling the area, this move represents a significant projection of Iranian power. The Houthi militants in Yemen have recently targeted vessels in the Red Sea, including those with alleged links to Israel, as part of their efforts to end the military assault on Gaza. Iran has rejected calls from Western powers to pressure the Houthis to stop their attacks. These developments have disrupted shipping in the region and prompted some shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, opting for the more costly route around the Cape of Good Hope. The situation has also led to an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to address the Red Sea tensions. Bloomberg
Israel to defend against South Africa’s genocide charges in the International Court of Justice. South Africa has launched a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. The charges stem from the Israeli military campaign targeting Hamas, with South Africa claiming it has resulted in enough death, destruction, and humanitarian crisis in Gaza to meet the threshold of genocide under international law. The case is expected to take years to reach a final judgment, but the court will likely rule within weeks on South Africa's request for provisional measures, including ordering Israel to suspend its military operations in and against Gaza and take measures to prevent genocide. Israel rarely cooperates in international court cases against it but has decided to respond to this charge, reflecting concerns about potential damage to its reputation on the world stage. Israel's defense will allow it to present legal arguments justifying its actions, but a loss in the case could lead to more international condemnation and potential economic and political isolation. Washington Post Associated Press
People in Gaza ‘exposed to epidemics, diseases’ due to lack of food. Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh expressed deep concern about the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, describing it as a "state of hunger and starvation" that is shocking to both Palestinians and the world. He highlighted the severe impact on children and infants and accused Israel of committing crimes by deliberately starving Gaza's population and obstructing the delivery of food. Shtayyeh called on the international community to take urgent action by providing food aid and facilitating the opening of crossings to ensure the delivery of essential supplies to Gaza. He also expressed gratitude to South Africa for filing a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide. Additionally, Shtayyeh voiced opposition to the idea of a waterway between Cyprus and Israel, expressing concerns that it might be exploited for deportation purposes. His remarks underscore the critical need for immediate humanitarian assistance and relief in Gaza. Al Jazeera
Lebanese await Nasrallah’s speech in wake of Beirut strike. The drone strike in Beirut that killed Saleh al-Arouri and six other Hamas members has sparked anger in the area, which is a residential and commercial zone. Hezbollah, headquartered nearby, considers it an attack on Lebanese sovereignty. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to address the situation in an evening speech. The strike occurred in a densely populated neighborhood, raising concerns about civilian casualties. Al Jazeera's Imran Khan, reporting from the site, described the area as having cafes, shops, and homes, and emphasized the frightening impact of the strike on the community. Al Jazeera
Why Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Joined the Fight Against Israel. The war between Israel and Hamas has led to the involvement of Houthi rebels from Yemen, who are also hostile to Israel and supported by Iran. The Houthis have disrupted Red Sea shipping by attacking ships, claiming to target those with Israel connections. They have declared Israel an enemy and launched missile and drone strikes against Israel and western shipping vessels transiting the Red Sea region. The conflict in Yemen, where the Houthis are based, has been ongoing since 2014, with the rebels receiving support from Iran and Hezbollah. While the Houthis claim to have the capability to reach Israel with their missiles, their success in doing so remains limited. The situation has raised concerns about regional stability and security in the Red Sea area. Bloomberg
ANALYSIS: The Twin Fronts in the Battle Over Israel’s Identity. Monday’s court ruling joined the war in Gaza in a widening crisis over what kind of state Israel will be. The Israeli Supreme Court's rejection of legislative control over the judiciary has ended, for now, the far-right government's efforts to diminish the courts, which had sparked months of protests. These protests divided Israel, but the subsequent war with Hamas united the country. While the court's decision highlights the cultural war in Israeli politics, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has appealed to wartime unity to downplay the loss. The ruling emphasizes the importance of Israel's identity as a democracy, crucial for its relationship with the West. It ensures that the judiciary can check the ability of a simple majority in the Knesset to change fundamental laws, preserving Israel's democratic character. Critics see it as saving Israel's balanced democracy. The war has accelerated the far-right government's designs, including annexation and complete Jewish sovereignty over the land. Netanyahu will likely use the ruling to maintain his majority in Parliament and continue pushing a far-right agenda. NY Times
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia says Ukraine attacks Belgorod again. Russia’s defense ministry said Ukraine launched 12 missiles and several drones on Russia’s southern Belgorod region on Wednesday. The ministry said Russian air defenses destroyed the 12 Ukrainian missiles over the Belgorod region. There were no reported casualties or damage from the latest attack, but regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the situation “continues to be tense.” Russian officials said that Ukraine also launched missiles at the Kursk region, damaging infrastructure, as well as in occupied Crimea. The latest assault came after Russia said Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod killed 25 civilians on Saturday and a day after Russia launched missiles and drones at Kyiv and Kharkiv in Ukraine. Reuters Al Jazeera
Zaluzhnyi says Ukraine downed record number of Kinzhal missiles in Tuesday assault. Ukraine's Commander in Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, reported that Ukraine intercepted all 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles launched by Russia on Tuesday, using U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems. Ukraine said that Russia launched at least 99 missiles targeting Kyiv, the surrounding region, and Kharkiv, killing five civilians and injuring at least 127 others. The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 72 Russian missiles and 35 Shahed "kamikaze" drones used in the attack. Zaluzhnyi expressed gratitude to Ukraine's allies for providing air defense systems but emphasized the need for more systems and munitions, anticipating further threats. Kyiv Independent France 24 Reuters
European officials condemn Russian attacks on Ukraine Poland calls for tighter sanctions in response. Officials from the E.U. and Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) condemned Russia’s Tuesday assault on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Josep Borrell, the E.U.’s top diplomat, condemned the attacks, saying that Russia started the new year by targeting civilian areas and infrastructure and vowing that Russia “will be held to account for its war crimes.” OSCE officials likewise criticized the attacks and called for an end of violence. Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has called on the West to tighten sanctions on Russia in response, asserting that “we should respond to the latest onslaught on ukraine in language that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands.” He added that the West should simultaneously give more long-range missiles to Ukraine so it can target Russian launch sites and command centers. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg
Poland scrambles fighter jets during Russian attack on Ukraine. Poland deployed two pairs of F-16 fighter jets to safeguard its airspace during Russia's attack on Ukraine’s cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv on Tuesday. The Polish Operational Command activated the fighter jets from bases in Lask and Krzesiny, along with an allied air tanker. Poland did not report any airspace violations in the latest attack. The deployment of the fighter jets came after a previous incident where a Russian missile entered Polish airspace from Ukraine on December 29. Poland had summoned the Russian charge d'affaires for an explanation of the December 29 incident. Russian state media said the Kremlin had no explanation to offer unless Poland offered “concrete evidence” that a Russian missile violated its airspace. Kyiv Independent
Russian attacks shift focus from energy to defense sector. According to the U.K. Defense Ministry's latest intelligence report, recent Russian long-range strikes against Ukraine have focused primarily on defense industry targets, marking a shift from last year's attacks that targeted energy infrastructure. The intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent days, involving waves of drones and missiles, suggest that Russia recognizes the importance of Ukraine's defense industrial capacity in anticipation of a protracted war. Ukraine has plans to ramp up domestic defense production in 2024, including the manufacturing of missiles and drones, recognizing their significance on the battlefield. Despite this shift, Russia has not entirely abandoned attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and the situation remains dynamic and unpredictable. Kyiv Independent UK Ministry of Defense
Ukraine's Zelensky says Russia suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted claims of Russian success in the nearly two-year-old war, stating that Russian forces are suffering heavy losses. While he provided no evidence for his assertion, Western military analysts agree that Russia has faced significant casualties and equipment losses for relatively minor gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. Zelensky emphasized the thousands of killed Russian soldiers around Avdiivka, a besieged town he recently visited. He expressed concern that if Ukraine lost the war, Russia might be emboldened to advance against other countries. Zelensky also stressed the need for mobilizing international support, acknowledging that the initial strong mobilization of Ukrainian society and the world has waned over time. He rejected the notion that Russia is interested in talks, suggesting that Russia's repeated aerial strikes indicate otherwise. Reuters
U.S. ambassador says Putin 'only strengthened resolve' of Ukrainian people. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink responded to Russia's large-scale attacks on January 2, stating that Vladimir Putin's actions have only "strengthened the resolve of Ukrainians to defend their freedom." Russia launched extensive drone and missile strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv on that day, causing casualties and damage. Brink noted that Russia had launched over 450 missiles and drones at Ukraine over the past five days, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. She emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom, which she described as essential for the security of Europe and beyond. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and EU High Representative Josep Borrell also condemned the attacks. Despite calls for financial assistance, U.S. aid to Ukraine has faced delays in Congress due to partisan conflicts. Kyiv Independent
ISW says Putin seeks to convince West to betray Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed the West as Russia's "enemy" and portrayed the conflict in Ukraine as a struggle against the West. He stated that Russia's issue is not necessarily Western aid to Ukraine but the West itself, which he perceives as trying to destroy Russian statehood. Putin claimed that Western elites are seeking to break Russia into five parts, using Ukraine as a tool. He emphasized that Russia would "deal with the [West] faster" than the West could handle the situation in Ukraine. This framing suggests that Putin aims to negotiate with the West about Ukraine's future while sidelining Ukraine in the process. Putin's framing of the conflict as Russia versus the West signifies his reluctance to negotiate with Ukraine independently and his intent to secure Russia's maximalist goals at Ukraine's expense. Western support for Ukraine remains crucial in deterring further Russian aggression. ISW
Turkey to block minehunter ships headed to Ukraine. Turkey announced that it will not permit two minehunter ships donated to Ukraine by Britain to pass through its waters enroute to the Black Sea, saying that it would violate the 1936 Montreux Convention concerning wartime passage through the straits. Britain’s Royal Navy had planned to transfer the ships to strengthen Ukraine's naval capabilities in its conflict with Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, informed allies that the vessels would be barred from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits as long as the war in Ukraine continues. The Montreux Convention allows non-belligerent parties' warships to transit through the straits during wartime, but Turkey has the final say if it perceives a risk of being drawn into the conflict. Turkey triggered the convention when Russia invaded Ukraine, blocking the passage of military ships from the warring parties. Reuters
Norway to send 2 fighter jets to Denmark for Ukraine training mission. Norway will send two F-16 fighter jets to Denmark to assist in training Ukrainian pilots on the use of these U.S.-made aircraft. Ukraine has been seeking to strengthen its air force in its conflict with Russia, and last year, Norway, along with Denmark, the Netherlands, and others, committed to donating aircraft to Ukraine. Norway has also sent ten instructors to Denmark to support the education of Ukrainian pilots. Reuters
Ex-SBU official released from Serbian prison. Andrii Naumov, a former Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) general who was sentenced to a year in prison in Serbia for money laundering, was released in early December. Naumov is involved in multiple criminal cases in Ukraine and left the country shortly before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. Serbian authorities have repeatedly refused to extradite him. The court's ruling in Serbia confiscated his documents and imposed a travel ban until the appeal proceedings of his sentence are concluded. Naumov's departure from Ukraine, just hours before the war began, led to him being labeled a traitor by Ukrainian authorities, who launched several criminal cases against him. Despite extradition requests from Ukraine, Serbian judges claimed the charges against him were politically motivated, and Naumov feared for his life if he returned. Kyiv Independent
E.U. sanctions Russia’s biggest diamond maker. The E.U. sanctioned Russia’s Alrosa, the world’s biggest diamond producer, and its chief executive officer on Wednesday, in line with the diamond ban in the E.U. 12th round of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions mean Alrosa’s assets in Europe are frozen and E.U. citizens and companies will be barred from making funds available to the company. The E.U. had already banned the import, transfer, or purchase of Russian non-industrial and synthetic diamonds and diamond jewelry from January 1. The ban was imposed in coordination with the G7. Reuters RFE/RL Barron's Associated Press
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
House members to receive classified UFO briefing. Members of the House Oversight Committee will receive a classified briefing on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), commonly known as UFOs. The member-only briefing, organized by the Office of Inspector General of the Intelligence Community, will take place in the Office of House Security. This development comes after a bipartisan group of Oversight Committee members, including Rep. Tim Burchett, sent a letter to the intelligence community seeking information on UFOs, particularly programs related to reverse engineering and recovering crashed UFOs. The lawmakers also established a Congressional UAP Caucus to address these concerns. Congressional interest in UFOs has intensified in recent years, with lawmakers advocating for increased government transparency on the matter. Axios
Senator Menendez accused of aiding Qatar for bribes. Senator Robert Menendez, who is already facing charges related to using his political influence to benefit Egypt, is now charged with exploiting his Senate office to aid the government of Qatar. Prosecutors in Manhattan allege that Menendez helped a New Jersey developer secure financial backing from a Qatari investment fund, receiving lucrative bribes in return. The alleged bribes included cash, gold bars, Formula 1 tickets, and an offer of a designer watch. The senator, his wife, and the developer have pleaded not guilty, and Menendez's lawyer has denied the allegations as baseless and desperate assumptions. Menendez’s trial is scheduled for May. The new charges highlight Qatar's role and influence in the case, adding scrutiny to wealthy Persian Gulf nations' influence operations on both sides of the Atlantic. The accusations also suggest attempts by Menendez and his wife to cover up other alleged bribes through repayments disguised as loans. Washington Post New York Times
U.S. prosecutors can now charge foreign officials in bribery cases. The recently signed U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes a provision, known as the Foreign Extortion Prevention Act (FEPA), that grants U.S. authorities the power to prosecute foreign officials demanding or accepting bribes from Americans seeking business deals. FEPA criminalizes foreign officials asking or accepting bribes from Americans, U.S. companies, or within U.S. jurisdiction. Violators under FEPA could face fines up to $250,000 or three times the bribe's value, imprisonment up to 15 years, or both. Foreign officials charged with bribery can now be arrested upon entering U.S. territory or in countries that the U.S. has extradition treaties with. Advocates believe the new law will enhance the U.S. legal arsenal against international corruption, protecting American companies operating abroad and significantly expanding U.S. anti bribery laws to address the demand side of corruption. FEPA complements the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which focuses on the supply side of bribery. Wall Street Journal
Europe
Finland reorganizes intelligence service. The Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo) has been reorganized to bolster its information gathering capabilities. The restructuring reduces Supo’s departments from nine to eight, with further changes remaining undisclosed. Antti Pelttari, the former chief, is leaving to serve as the effective head of Finland's parliamentary civil service. Teemu Turunen will serve as acting director. The reorganization follows an investigation into potential sabotage of an undersea pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia, as well as continued tensions with Russia. Supo has warned of increased Russian cyber espionage due to challenges in human intelligence work following the expulsion of alleged Russian intelligence officers throughout Europe. Despite cyber concerns, experts remain skeptical that significant cyber incidents will impact Finland's critical infrastructure soon. The Record
Putin signed record number of secret decrees in 2023, according to research. According to a report by Mediazona, nearly half of the 996 presidential decrees signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022 were classified, marking the highest percentage of secret decrees in any recorded year. The independent news outlet based its findings on data from Russia's official publications website, which showed that 49.5% of the decrees were kept confidential. Secret decrees are often employed to reward the military and pardon convicts who served in the war against Ukraine. The report highlighted that, in 2022 and 2023, at least 17 individuals involved in murders were pardoned after fighting in Ukraine and returning to Russia. Putin confirmed signing a decree absolving convicts of their crimes on June 13, emphasizing the state's obligation to those who served on the front. The Kremlin has not responded to the report. RFE/RL
Asia and Oceania
US, Philippines hold maritime drills amid China tensions. The Philippines and the U.S. commenced their second maritime drills in the South China Sea in less than two. The two-day bilateral exercise includes passing exercises, communication checks, cross-deck exercises, joint patrols, Officer of the Watch maneuvers, and fixed-wing flight operations. The Philippines deployed four Navy vessels, multi-role and anti-submarine warfare helicopters for the drills, while the US dispatched an aircraft carrier, a cruiser, two destroyers, and multiple combat aircraft. Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. said the drills aim to enhance interoperability and promote a rules-based international order and free and open Indo-Pacific region. Recent months have seen heightened tensions between China and the Philippines in the disputed region. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has strengthened defense ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia in response. Bloomberg
Taiwan reports Chinese weather balloons cross over island. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it detected three Chinese weather balloons over the island on Tuesday. The balloons traveled northeast as they crossed over the island. A balloon flew over Taiwan on Monday for the first time since the ministry started releasing data on balloon sightings last month. The balloon crossings come as Taiwan prepares for elections on January 13. Taiwan says it is on high alert for any moves by China to influence the vote. Nikkei Asia Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
China releases images of new aircraft carrier. Chinese state media revealed new images of the country's most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, on state television. The domestically designed and built carrier, first unveiled in June 2022, is larger and more technologically advanced than its predecessors, the Shandong (commissioned in 2019) and the Liaoning (acquired from Ukraine in 1998). The images showed that the carrier is equipped with next-generation electromagnetic launch tracks capable of catapulting a broader range of aircraft from its deck. The Fujian's Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) distinguishes it as the world's second carrier, after the U.S. Ford-class carriers, to feature this advanced technology, enabling more aircraft types, increased reliability, and energy efficiency. The carrier has undergone mooring tests, with sea trials anticipated in the coming years. The construction of the carrier comes as Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasizes military modernization and combat readiness, aligning with the 100th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army in 2027. Reuters
Russia’s imports of China’s advanced machine tools surge after Ukraine invasion. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese shipments of advanced computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools to Russia have surged tenfold, totaling $68 million in July, up from $6.5 million in February 2022. These high-precision CNC devices are crucial for Moscow's military industries. The increase in shipments has raised concerns among Ukraine's allies, as they seek to limit Russia's access to such equipment. Russia, facing restrictions on European machinery imports, is increasingly reliant on China, reflecting a deepening military-industrial partnership between the two nations. Russian imports of CNC tools from the EU have sharply declined due to tightened restrictions, prompting Moscow to seek alternative sources. Chinese-origin CNC devices constituted 57% of Russian imports by value in July, up from 12% before the invasion. Despite US sanctions on significant Russian importers of CNC tools, Chinese companies engaging in trade with them risk potential repercussions from the US. The surge in exports aligns with China and Russia's shared political interest in challenging the US. Analysts emphasize the strategic importance of CNC tools in defense manufacturing, and the winners in this surge have strong ties to China's People's Liberation Army. However, the actual deployment of Chinese CNC devices in Russian defense plants remains unclear, with some suggesting a preference for equipment from other countries due to perceived quality differences. Financial Times
Opinion: Beijing Is on a Wartime Footing. Biden needs to rebuild America’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ or risk being unprepared. The U.S. and China recently restored military-to-military dialogue, but China's military buildup shows no signs of slowing down. Chinese leaders are actively pursuing the development of a world-class military, enhancing defense industrial production, and advancing their weaponry. China is amassing medium- and long-range precision missiles, creating integrated air-defense systems, and has become the world's largest shipbuilder, particularly benefiting its navy.
This should serve as a warning for the U.S. The American defense industrial base is ill-prepared for a protracted Indo-Pacific conflict. There's a shortage of munitions, particularly long-range precision munitions, and supply-chain challenges persist. To address this, a national-level body, similar to past defense production boards, should oversee defense industrial revitalization. Additional funding, tax incentives, regulatory relief, and long-term contracts are needed to modernize and expand defense facilities, develop flexible production, and increase capacity. It may also necessitate increased defense spending, currently at around 3% of GDP.
The U.S. must act urgently, as President Franklin D. Roosevelt advised, to revitalize its defense industry before it's too late. Wall Street Journal
Middle East and North Africa
Iran says explosions at ceremony honoring Soleimani kill over 70 people. Iranian officials report that two explosions killed over 70 people and injured at least 170 others at a ceremony in Iran’s southeastern city of Kerman to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the death of military commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in 2020. Iranian state media described the blasts as “terrorist attacks” and said that “several gas canisters exploded on the road leading to the cemetery” where the ceremony was being held. Solemiani was head of the Iran Revolutionary Guards elite Quds Force when he was killed. Reuters RFE/RL Associated Press Jerusalem Post Times of Israel
Iran cancels restart of flights to Saudi Arabia. Iran’s flag carrier Iran Air suspended plans to resume flights to Saudi Arabia after an eight-year hiatus, marking a setback in the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh. Iranian state media said that the first flights from Iran — Jeddah-bound pilgrimage flights — scheduled on Wednesday were canceled since Saudi authorities did not issue necessary permits. Iran’s culture minister said the issue was a “technical disagreement” between the countries’ aviation authorities and “nothing serious.” Saudi Arabia’s government did not comment on the matter. Bloomberg
U.S. reaches agreement with Qatar to extend operations at key military base. The U.S. has reached a deal to extend its military presence at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar for another 10 years, according to defense officials and other sources. The base is located southwest of Doha and is the biggest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, capable of housing over 10,000 American troops. It has been a key hub for U.S. Central Command’s air operations in the region and also hosts Qatari and British Air Forces. The deal has not been announced publicly and comes as the U.S. bolsters its presence in the region to counter threats from Iran-backed militant groups amid the Israel-Hamas war. Qatar has played a key mediating role in the region but has also been scrutinized for hosting senior Hamas leaders. Qatar has countered that it only allowed Hamas to open a political office in Doha after a request by the U.S. during the Obama administration. CNN Reuters
Africa
Sudan’s feared paramilitary leader signals ambition to rule the country. In the ongoing Sudanese conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo seeks regional support to expand his influence beyond Gezira state, which the RSF recently captured. While negotiations were planned between Hemedti and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Hemedti's regional visits and actions suggest ambitions to rule all of Sudan, not just negotiate. Analysts believe both leaders are derailing mediation efforts to buy time for military operations. The RSF's expansion has been marred by atrocities and cruelty, eroding popular support. They are attempting to bring law and order to regions under their control and have established a local police force. However, many view these efforts as a farce and hold the RSF responsible for theft, violence, and lawlessness. European countries may cooperate with the RSF if they capture the entire country to stem migration, despite past EU suspension of cooperation due to human rights concerns. Al Jazeera
Sierra Leone charges ex-leader Koroma’s guard, 11 others over failed coup. Sierra Leone authorities have charged 12 individuals, including a former member of ex-President Ernest Bai Koroma's security detail, with treason following a failed coup attempt in November. The accused, which include former police and correctional officers, were arraigned before a magistrate in Freetown. Additional charges are expected against other individuals in the coming days. Among those charged is Amadu Koita, a former soldier and bodyguard of ex-President Koroma, known for his criticisms of the current government on social media. The arrests are related to events on November 26 when gunmen attacked a military barracks, a prison, and other locations in Freetown, resulting in the release of about 2,200 inmates and the deaths of over 20 people. The violence raised concerns of potential coup attempts in West Africa, which has seen political instability in recent years. Al Jazeera
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Chinese scientists say they developed cheap, most sensitive SQUID submarine detector. Chinese scientists claim to have developed a cost-effective version of the Superconducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID), an ultra-sensitive submarine detection technology. The technology uses superconducting coils to detect disturbances in Earth's magnetic fields caused by submarines navigating deep waters. The simplified design developed by the Chinese scientists, detailed in a peer-reviewed paper, makes it feasible for the detectors to be fitted to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as drones, at a fraction of the cost. The simplified design not only reduces costs but also minimizes maintenance requirements and operational malfunctions. Researchers also achieved a "remarkable" increase in the precision of the device by redesigning its internal structure, reducing components and minimizing internal noise. If widely deployed on drones, this advancement could provide China with a strategic advantage against advanced US submarines in open waters. While the researchers have not disclosed specific applications, the university involved is closely linked to the military. South China Morning Post
China seeks to advance nuclear fusion research with new R&D company, industry coalition. China launched a new national company and broad coalition of industrial giants and research institutes to advance nuclear fusion technology research. The new company is called China Fusion Energy Inc and aims to unite China’s fusion energy research and development, which has been scattered among various research and private entities. The consortium is led by China National Nuclear Corp and comprises 25 central government-owned enterprises and research institutes, including China’s top energy and steel firms. The coalition aims to advance nuclear fusion development through high-temperature superconductors, large-capacity energy storage and tritium production. Bloomberg South China Morning Post
Korean authorities investigate $81 million cryptocurrency theft from Orbit Chain. Crypto platform Orbit Chain is working with the Korean National Police Agency and Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA) to investigate and address a cyberattack resulting in the theft of over $81 million worth of cryptocurrency. Unauthorized transactions, involving various cryptocurrencies such as USDC, USDT, and ETH, were observed on the platform on New Year's Eve. The losses were estimated at around $81.5 million, with $30 million taken in USDT and $10 million in USDC, according to blockchain research firms CertiK and PeckShield. Blockchain security company ChainLight has been hired to lead the investigation into the incident. Investigators are exploring the possibility that the attack originated from North Korean hackers, known for their involvement in numerous major crypto thefts. The incident adds to the $100 million stolen from crypto platforms in December 2023, with U.S. officials stating that North Korean hackers have stolen over $2 billion in cryptocurrency to fund the North Korean government's activities, including weapons programs. The Record
Ukraine dismantles surveillance cameras hacked by Russia to spy on targets in Kyiv. Ukraine's security officers dismantled two online surveillance cameras that were reportedly hacked by Russia to spy on air defense forces and critical infrastructure in Kyiv. Originally installed for residents' use, Russian intelligence allegedly gained remote access, altered viewing angles, and connected them to YouTube to stream sensitive footage. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed this footage may have aided Russia in directing drones and missiles during attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv on Tuesday. Since Russia's 2022 invasion, the SBU has blocked around 10,000 digital security cameras potentially used for missile strike preparations. Investigations suggest Russia's intelligence services could access footage from thousands of Ukrainian surveillance cameras using the Russian Trassir software. The SBU has urged owners of street surveillance cameras to halt online broadcasts and report any detected streams on YouTube. Ukrainian laws prohibit sharing images or videos of buildings hit during missile strikes, with violators facing up to 12 years in prison. The Record
Hackers breach Australian state’s court database. Australia's state of Victoria experienced a ransomware attack on its court system, potentially exposing recordings of court hearings. The attack was detected on December 21 and disrupted the audio-visual in-court technology network, affecting video recordings, audio recordings, and transcription services. The hackers, possibly from the Qilin ransomware group, threatened to publish stolen court files and left a dark web address for recovery instructions. While staff were locked out of computers during the attack, the court hearings scheduled for January are unaffected. The attack primarily impacted the County Court, with potential access to all criminal and civil hearings recorded on the network. CSV, the administrative body overseeing the courts, is notifying individuals whose hearing recordings may have been accessed. The attack adds to recent cyber incidents in Australia that have hit targets in its healthcare, financial, and telecommunications sectors. The Record Reuters
Microsoft disables app installation protocol abused by hackers. Microsoft has disabled the ms-appinstaller protocol, a feature used for app installation on Windows, after discovering cybercriminals using it to distribute malware. The protocol allowed users to streamline app installation, but it was exploited by hackers to install loader malware. This enabled cybercriminals to bypass security mechanisms like Microsoft Defender SmartScreen and browser warnings. Microsoft attributed this activity to hacking groups Storm-0569, Storm-1113, Storm-1674, and Sangria Tempest. These groups were found spoofing legitimate applications to trick users into installing malicious packages, which could lead to further infections like data exfiltration or ransomware. By disabling the protocol, Windows apps can no longer install directly from a server; instead, users must download the software package and then run App Installer. The Record
Cyber defenders grapple with Citrix Bleed security vulnerability. As 2024 begins, companies are facing the repercussions of a known security vulnerability called Citrix Bleed, which hackers exploited to access sensitive information from Xfinity's 36 million customers. Xfinity had patched the flaw in its system two months prior to the discovery. Researchers believe hackers had been exploiting Citrix Bleed since at least August, prompting concerns about what sensitive data was accessed during that time. Major corporations, including Boeing and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, were reportedly targeted by ransomware gangs using this vulnerability. Citrix Bleed affects NetScaler Gateway appliances and NetScaler web application delivery controls, providing hackers with rare access to employee passwords and session tokens, bypassing multifactor authentication. Although the number of vulnerable systems has decreased, approximately 1,300 instances were still online as of December 31. Patching Citrix Bleed is challenging, requiring additional mitigations to remove lingering intruders. Axios
Generative AI to play major role in 2024 elections. Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly prominent role in global elections this year, with about one billion voters participating worldwide. This technology offers efficiency benefits but also presents significant risks, including the potential for bad actors to exploit generative AI for voter suppression, character defamation, and incitement of violence. Newer AI companies with small integrity teams and underfunded election officials may struggle to counter these threats. Issues related to AI include the spread of inaccurate information via chatbots and platform algorithms, as well as the tension between freedom of expression and the need to combat misinformation. Notably, China, Russia, and Iran have been cited for using generative AI to influence election processes. To ensure responsible AI use, guidelines and oversight are essential, as social media companies must prevent AI-generated misinformation from undermining democratic processes. Axios
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.
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