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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, December 6, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Putin Arrives in Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in the Middle East on Wednesday for a rare trip abroad to discuss oil production, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the Ukraine war. Putin first met with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Putin said relations between the UAE and Russia are “at an unprecedented level” and praised the UAE’s decision to join BRICS. Sheikh Mohammed likewise called for strengthening of bilateral relations and noted increased trade and non-oil investment between the two countries. Putin will later fly to Riyadh to meet Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. The Middle East tour comes after OPEC+ agreed to extend voluntary oil production cuts to bolster prices. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin will host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday. Bloomberg Reuters
Zelensky Cancels U.S. Senate Appearance amid Congressional Fighting on Ukraine Funding. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky canceled an appearance at a Biden Administration video conference briefing for U.S. senators yesterday shortly before the meeting began. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Zelensky was occupied by a “last minute” matter, but Schumer provided no details. The briefing took place as Congressional negotiations on the Administration’s $61 billion aid request for Ukraine remain stalled. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said earlier yesterday that there is a “big risk” that Russia will defeat Ukraine without continued American support. Yermak’s comments echoed those of White House Budget Director Shalanda Young, who published a letter to Congressional leaders Monday in which she warned that failure to approve additional military aid before the end of the year would “kneecap” Ukraine’s war effort. Schumer has scheduled a procedural vote for today on the Biden Administration’s $106 billion aid request for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but the measure appeared unlikely to get enough Republican support to reach the 60 votes needed. According to some media reports, yesterday’s classified briefing erupted into a screaming match as Senate Republicans accused Democrats of ignoring their call for increased border security funding. Meanwhile, the outlook for assistance to Ukraine remains unclear in the House as well. Speaker Mike Johnson has said he supports additional funding, but he was one of 117 House Republicans who voted in September to block $300 million in additional security assistance. Yesterday evening, President Biden said Congress’s failure to provide additional aid for Ukraine “is just absolutely crazy. It’s against U.S. interests.” Bloomberg BBC France24 The Hill
U.S. Says Russia Rejected Proposal to Release Detained Americans. The State Department said on Tuesday that Russia recently rejected a “significant proposal” for the release of Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich, two Americans charged in Russia with spying. They have denied the accusations and the U.S. says they have been “wrongfully detained.” U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller did not provide details of the U.S. offer. Russian state media quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying “we don’t discuss this topic in public.” The Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to media requests for comment. Reuters Kyiv Independent Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity Officials Emphasize Protective Measures for U.S. Water Facilities. In the wake of several attempted cyber intrusions at U.S. water treatment and management facilities, cybersecurity officials have called on utilities to reinforce cyber defenses. Eric Goldstein, CISA’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said on Monday that there is no indication of access to operational systems at the water facilities or any impact on the supply of “safe drinking water to the targeted populations.” Nevertheless, Goldstein described the incident at a municipal water plant in Pennsylvania as a “clarion call” for organizations to focus on basic, but critical, cybersecurity steps. David Travis, EPA’s director of water infrastructure, said the attempted breaches of Unitronics Internet-facing devices by an Iran-linked hacking group, Cyber Av3ngers, “underscore for us…that without cybersecurity requirements and oversight, our nation’s water and wastewater system and the communities they serve will continue to be vulnerable.” Paul Lukoskie, an executive with the Dragos cybersecurity firm that is helping Unitronics clients respond to the threat, said that it would be ideal if critical infrastructure systems were not exposed on the Internet, but shielded by a “monster firewall.” CyberScoop Bloomberg
E.U. Warns of Significant Terrorism Risk During Holiday Season. European Union (EU) Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson says that EU states face a “huge risk of terrorist attacks” over the holiday season due to the ongoing Israeli-Hamas war. Johansson cited the recent knife attack in Paris, which killed a German tourist as an example of the kinds of threats that the war has heightened. The attacker, who was reportedly under psychological observation for mental health issues, had allegedly pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS) and was angered over the plight of Palestinians in Gaza. Johansson also announced a plan to allocate an additional 30 million Euros to enhance protection of places of worship. The warning follows a similar report by Germany’s domestic spy agency in November that there was an increased risk of attacks by radicalized Islamists living in Germany. Politico Deutsche Welle
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel says Half of Hamas’s Battalion Commanders Killed. Israeli officials said Israel’s military has killed about half of Hamas’s mid-level battalion commanders in Gaza. Officials say Israel has yet to kill the group’s senior leadership, including Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and the head of the group’s armed wing, Mohammed Deif. Israeli forces continue to push into the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, where the Israeli military says Sinwar and other Hamas leaders could be. Israel's military said on Tuesday that they had killed senior Hamas commanders in a tunnel in northern Gaza, potentially complicating direct operations for battalions and brigades in the area. Experts say the targeting of commanders is important since it degrades Hamas’s ability to execute more complex operations and deprives the group of experienced personnel. However, they also warn that other fighters will take the place of eliminated commanders. Meanwhile, escalating fighting in southern Gaza is pushing Palestinian civilians further towards the southern border town of Rafah. The U.N. said humanitarian aid was only distributed in Rafah on Tuesday since resumed fighting has largely severed the rest of Gaza from the town’s border crossing. Wall Street Journal Reuters New York Times
U.S. to Impose Visa Bans on Individuals Involved in West Bank Violence. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that the U.S. will impose visa bans against individuals involved in undermining peace, security, or stability in the occupied West Bank. The travel restrictions will specifically target those who have committed violence or restrict civilians’ access to essential services and basic necessities in the West Bank. The move comes after the U.S. has repeatedly called on Israel to stop violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank, which has increased since the Hamas attacks on October 7. After the announcement, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant condemned West Bank settler violence, saying that “in a state of law” only the military, police, and security services can use force. Al Jazeera Reuters
Biden Condemns Hamas Sexual Violence, Torture in Attacks. President Biden called yesterday for the forceful condemnation of “the sexual violence of Hamas terrorists without equivocation.” During a political fundraiser in Boston, Biden mentioned descriptions by survivors and witnesses of “acts of unimaginable cruelty.” Biden also blamed Hamas for the breakdown of the truce under which Hamas released dozens of women and girls in exchange for Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners. Biden promised the U.S. would continue working to secure the hostages’ release. Bloomberg New York Times
Israel Maintains No Trade Abnormalities Before Hamas Attack. Israel’s Securities Authority (ISA) maintains that investigations showed there were no significant stock-trading abnormalities ahead of the Hamas attacks on October 7. Tel Aviv Stock Exchange CEO Ittai Ben-Zeev likewise said there were no oddities in trading, asserting that the “local market didn’t see anything that’s awkward.” The reassurance came after law Professors Robert Jackson from New York University and Joshua Mitts of Columbia University published research that found significant short-selling of shares leading up to the attack, potentially suggesting that traders had advanced knowledge of the attack and used it to profit off of Israeli securities. In addition to the other reassurances, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange officials said the research was miscalculated since it was based on agorot rather than shekels. ISA did note that its investigation only covered domestic trading and did not include trading of Israeli securities abroad. Bloomberg Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine Says it Shot Down a Russian Bomber Close to Odesa’s Snake Island. The Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force on Tuesday said that its forces managed to intercept and shoot down a Russian Su-24M bomber aircraft near Snake Island as it prepared to fire missiles towards southern targets in the Black Sea region of Odesa. Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk said Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile downed the Russian aircraft, under cover of a Su-30SM fighter plane before the Odesa region could be struck. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the successful downing of the aircraft near the island, known as Zmiinyi Island in Ukraine, which lies 35 kilometers from the mainland of the Odesa region. Odesa, a strategic port of commerce, has been a near constant target for Russian forces since the invasion in 2022.Kyiv Independent Ukrinform Deutsche Welle
Ukraine says 41 Russian Drones Intercepted Overnight. Ukrainian officials report that Ukrainian air defenses downed 41 of 48 Russian drones launched in overnight attacks against southern, central, and eastern Ukrainian regions. Ukraine’s Air Force said the drones were launched from Russia’s western Kursk region and the occupied Crimean peninsula and that only Iranian-made “Shahed” drones were used in the assault. The Ukrainian President’s office said drone debris damaged private residential and commercial buildings. The attack also damaged unspecified infrastructure facilities across the country, including a natural gas pipeline in the northeastern Kharkiv region. There were no reports of casualties. Separately, DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy producer, said one of its thermal power stations in the east was shelled for the sixth time this month. Reuters Kyiv Independent
Zelensky Assures Ukraine of Victory Amid U.S. Aid Concerns. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured Ukrainians that Ukraine will defeat Russia and secure a fair peace “against all odds” amid uncertainty about future U.S. assistance. He added that Ukraine has persevered throughout Russia’s invasion and has no alternative but to continue resisting and eventually liberate occupied territories. Zelensky delivered his message in a rare early-morning video that showed him walking through Kyiv to a memorial to honor fallen soldiers on Ukraine’s Armed Forces Day. The video was released after he canceled a briefing with U.S. lawmakers to appeal for new aid as the U.S. Congress continues to debate the Biden administration’s $60 billion aid request. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said on Tuesday that without U.S. aid, there is a “big risk” that Ukraine will lose the war. Reuters
Polish Trucker Blockade Delays Volunteer Military Aid for Ukraine. Three industry sources told Reuters that border protests by Polish truckers are delaying the delivery of critical military supplies from charities and NGOs to Ukraine. The sources said deliveries of equipment including drones, electronics and trucks may be delayed for several weeks. Thousands of trucks carrying commercial goods have been backed up at the Polish border with Ukraine because of the protests, which began November 6. Truckers in Slovakia began a similar blockade December 1. The protesters want to end Ukrainian truckers’ permit-free access to the E.U, which they say Ukrainian truckers to undercut their prices. Kyiv argues that the volume of wartime traffic makes a truck permitting system impractical. Ukraine’s military has relied heavily on hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of auxiliary supplies from charities since the war began. Taras Chemut, head of Come Back Alive, Ukraine’s largest military aid charity, said his organization is trying to work out an agreement with Polish authorities to allow unimpeded passage of aid. Poland has been the major route for Ukrainian imports since Russia blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea ports at the start of the war. Reuters
U.K. Vows to Continue Military Assistance for Ukraine. Top U.K. diplomat David Cameron on Tuesday insisted that Britain will continue to support Ukraine’s military and focus on what Kyiv needs in its conflict with Russia. Cameron reiterated that the U.K. would not reduce the scale of assistance it has provided for Kyiv, though he could not provide an exact figure for the amount London plans on spending on arms next year. British weapons, such as Storm Shadow missiles, have been vital to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian military targets. The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary said Britain has already given Ukraine more than $5.9 billion in humanitarian and economic aid, and $5.8 billion in military aid. He conceded that Ukraine’s military has experienced some difficulties in the south, but said its forces have managed to make advancements against Russia's assets in Black Sea. Kyiv Independent The Guardian
Slovenia to Give Ukraine 1.5 Million Euro for Humanitarian Demining Efforts. Ukraine's Ministry of Economy revealed that Mateja Prevolšek, the Slovenian Ambassador to Ukraine, announced on Monday that the nation is prepared to give Kyiv 1.5 million euros to support demining efforts. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko expressed gratitude for the funds, and said that the financing would go towards helping to provide Ukraine “with the necessary individual protection, equipment, and technology for demining." Svyrydenko and Prevolšek participated in a virtual signing ceremony on Monday. In October, international donors pledged to give Kyiv $530 million in demining aid, as nearly one third of Ukrainian territory is considered possibly dangerous due to the weapons, making it the most mine-affected nation in the world. Kyiv Independent BNN
U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Russian Defense Procurement Network. The U.S. sanctioned a Belgium-based network allegedly involved in procuring military-grade electronics and other equipment for the Russian military. The sanctions targeted Belgium-based Hans De Geetere, who led the network, and nine entities and five other people across Russia, Belgium, Cyprus, Sweden, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands. De Geetere did not respond to requests for comment, but Belgian media previously quoted him denying accusations of wrongdoing, saying the network “exported trinkets, not top technology.” Associated Press Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
Yellen Appeals for Ukraine Aid. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that Ukraine faces a “dire situation” and that U.S. lawmakers hold Ukraine’s fate in their hands. Speaking with reporters as she traveled to Mexico City, Yellen said that as Kyiv channels all of its tax revenue to the military, Ukraine depends on U.S. funding for hospitals, schools and other services and that the U.S. would be “responsible for Ukraine’s defeat” if it failed to send further assistance. Yellen noted that America’s allies are providing even more aid than the U.S. is, but that Ukraine “is just running out of money.” Bloomberg Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Meta, IBM to Join ‘AI Alliance’ To Promote Open Source Model Development. Meta and IBM have joined more than 40 other companies and organizations to form the AI Alliance, a coalition focused on developing open source AI models. According to a group statement, the Alliance will pursue responsible AI development, including safety and security tools, and will seek collaborative efforts with academic researchers. Meta over the last several months has released open source versions of its large language models. Describing the advantages of open AI systems, Meta executive Nick Clegg said “more people can access the benefits, build innovative products and work on safety.” Other Alliance participants include Oracle, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Stability AI. OpenAI was not listed as an Alliance participant. Reflecting on recent months of turmoil in the AI sector, Darío Gil, IBM’s director of research, said “we’ve been a little bit unsatisfied with the overall debate and the discussions on AI. He added that “we did not feel that it reflected the diversity of the ecosystem that is making this AI moment possible.” Wall Street Journal Bloomberg
U.S. Researching Alternative Fuel for Navy Vessels’ Nuclear Reactors. The U.S. is advancing research for a potential safer alternative to fuel for nuclear reactors for Navy submarines and aircraft carriers. Currently, U.S. naval vessels use highly-enriched fuel made with bomb-grade uranium. According to a report from the National Nuclear Security Administration (NSAA) sent to Congress last year, the U.S. research program into a low-enriched uranium fuel alternative progressed from the planning phase to an “iterative experimental campaign phase” in fiscal year 2021 and that early findings signal progress for a 20-to 25-year design effort. The report noted that success is not guaranteed, highlighting a 2016 report’s finding that it could take over $1 billion to develop the fuel and a 2022 report’s assessment that costs could detract from higher-priority non-proliferation and naval propulsion research. NNSA did not immediately comment on the documents. Experts say the fuel issue is being made more urgent due to the AUKUS deal since Australia could set a precedent for what fuel other countries use for submarines. Reuters
North Korean Hackers Potentially Steal Weapons Data, Including on Laser Weapon. South Korean police are investigating whether the North Korean hacker group Andariel stole defense technology information, including data on an anti-aircraft laser. The investigation is being carried out in cooperation with the FBI. Andariel — which was listed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a North Korean state-sponsored hacking group in 2019 — is accused of stealing data from 14 foreign businesses, government agencies, and defense industry organizations. Police say the group has stolen 250 files, or 1.2 terabytes of information, from South Korean defense firms, research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies. The group has also extorted 470 million won ($357,866) worth of bitcoin from three South Korean and foreign firms in ransomware attacks. Reuters
Microsoft Outlook Targeted Thousands of Times in Summer Russia-Linked Campaign. Microsoft Outlook accounts were targeted over 10,000 times over the summer months by a Russia-linked threat actor tracked as TA422 and Fancy Bear, according to a Proofpoint cybersecurity analyst. TA422 has been linked to Russia’s military intelligence agency GRU. The campaign reportedly targeted an Outlook elevation of privilege vulnerability and was unique for its scale. Proofpoint reported monitoring thousands of emails from a single email provider to targets in the defense, aerospace, technology, and government sectors, among others and said the surge in email activity “caught our attention partly due to all the emails pointing to the same listener server, but mostly due to the volume.” The company said the campaign was far larger than normal nation-state cyberespionage operations, with “over 10,000 repeated attempts to exploit the Microsoft Outlook vulnerability, targeting the same accounts daily during the late summer.” Proofpoint’s analyst has not determined if the campaign attempted to collect credentials but assumes the broad scope and regularity of the operation against priority targets aimed “to try and gain access.” Cybernews
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
China says it Monitored U.S. Navy Patrol Plane in Taiwan Strait. China’s military said on Wednesday that it deployed fighter jets to shadow and warn a U.S. navy patrol aircraft that flew over the Taiwan Strait. The Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army called the flight “public hype” and that it dealt with the U.S. plane according to laws and regulations to defend Chinese national sovereignty. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the plane, a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance plane, flew over the Taiwan Strait in international airspace in a demonstration of the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Taiwan’s defense ministry said it also monitored the U.S. aircraft and described the situation as “normal.” The flight came as Taiwan prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13. The U.S. Navy last announced a Poseidon flew through the strait in October. China also deployed fighters then to monitor and warn the aircraft. Reuters U.S. Navy 7th Fleet
E.U. to Push China on Dual Use Exports to Russia. The European Union’s two leaders are expected to urge Chinese President Xi Jinping to take action to restrict exports of dual-use goods from China to Russia. Several EU officials and diplomats said the presentation by European Council Commission President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will include a veiled threat of sanctions if Beijing does not comply. A senior E.U. official said yesterday that the organization hopes China will “take care of some of the entities that are circumventing our sanctions” against Russia. While China has not shipped offensive weapons to Russia, there are concerns that it has sent non-lethal but useful military equipment such as body armor and drones. An analysis of trade data indicates that China also has provided technology that Western countries say can be used in weapons. Politico
Vietnam Reportedly Preparing for Xi Visit Next Week. Sources report Chinese President Xi Jinping likely will visit Hanoi from December 12-13. Neither Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor China’s Foreign Ministry immediately confirmed the trip. Xi’s last trip to Vietnam was in 2017, when he attended the APEC summit in Danang. Bloomberg
Middle East
U.K. Maritime Agency Warns of ongoing threats in Red Sea, Saudi Arabia Urges U.S. Restraint. The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) warned ships in the Red Sea around the Yemeni port of Hodeidah on Wednesday to be cautious after the agency received reports of an incident involving a suspected drone in the area. The agency did not provide any details of the reported incident, which follows a series of attacks in Middle Eastern waters since the Hamas-Israeli war began October 7. The incident came as sources said Saudi Arabia has asked for U.S. restraint in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Two sources said to be familiar with Saudi thinking said Riyadh is pleased so far with the way the U.S. has handled the situation. Reuters Reuters
Europe
Finnish Source Outlines Russian Plan To Complicate NATO Accession Process. An investigative reporting arm of the Finnish broadcast company, YLE, has reported on a covert Russian program to disrupt the process of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. According to a Russian intelligence document obtained by the MOT investigative team, plans called for efforts to organize public disruptions masquerading as demonstrations as the NATO applications process was under way. The alleged intelligence service document was leaked to The Dossier Center, an organization dedicated to monitoring “the criminal activity of various people associated with the Kremlin." The document outlined plans to further fuel tensions in the wake of violent demonstrations triggered by the burning of a Koran in Sweden. The goal was to increase friction between Turkey and European and other NATO countries. Finland’s Security Intelligence Service confirmed it was aware of Russian plans to incite demonstrations in Finland. Russia’s plans reportedly included wide use of anti-Islam and anti-Turkish graffiti in public spaces and amplifying the protests through social media outlets. MOT investigators say they know which Russian intelligence service was involved in the disruption plans, but they have not identified it for security reasons. YLE
The Americas
Official Says U.S. Engaging with Venezuela on Sanctions Relief, But May Renew Restrictions. U.S. State Department official Brian A. Nichols on Tuesday said that Washington is “continuing to engage” in talks with the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro concerning sanctions relief, though Caracas has reportedly not done enough, and the Biden administration is considering whether to reimpose energy sanctions. Speaking at a virtual event, Nichols said the U.S. seeks to form “the conditions for a more democratic, prosperous and secure Venezuela” by ordering Maduro’s government to allow opposition candidates to take public office, liberate “wrongfully detained” Americans, and release political prisoners. Nichols said Venezuela’s officials must “demonstrate the courage” to permit opposition figures to run in next year’s election. He also insisted that unless Americans are not released from prison, a “normal relationship with Venezuela is not possible.” The U.S. previously withdrew a ban on secondary-market trading of Venezuelan sovereign bonds and issued licenses authorizing both American transactions with Venezuela's oil and gas sector, as well as operations of the gold mining enterprise Minerven. Reuters Bloomberg
Venezuela’s Maduro Fuels Guyana Territory Dispute, Orders Companies to License Land. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has ordered the nation’s mineral and oil state companies to begin granting licenses for deposits in the thick jungle territory of Essequibo, further fueling tensions with Guyana following Sunday’s referendum vote. Venezuelan voters supported the idea of their country taking control of the territory, discovered to be rich with off-shore oil, despite Guyana maintaining sovereignty over the disputed land. Though the matter has appeared before the International Court of Justice, Maduro has rejected its jurisdiction and demanded that foreign oil enterprises working in the area leave within three months. He has not yet deployed military forces but said Tuesday that he would form a unit for the territory and place its base within Venezuela. He proposed “a special law” that would ban all businesses working “under Guyana concessions from any transaction.” Analysts believe Maduro’s escalation of tensions with Guyana may be linked to his desire to stir up support before next year’s presidential elections. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
Former DEA Informant Pleads Guilty to Role in 2021 Assassination of Haitian President. Former DEA confidential informant Joseph Vincent on Tuesday pleaded guilty to conspiring to assassinate Haitian President Jovenel Moise in the summer of 2021, whose murder sparked chaos, unrest, and violence in the volatile nation. Vincent is the fourth out of 11 defendants to plead guilty in a U.S. court and faces up to a life in prison if convicted on charges of conspiracy to murder and kidnap a person outside of U.S. territory, as well as conspiracy to supply material support and resources. Officials say that around 20 Colombian nationals and dual Haitian-American citizens were involved in the plan to carry out a nighttime shooting at the Port-au-Prince home of Moise. Vincent and another Haitian-American, James Solages, pretended to be DEA agents at the time of the assault, though they initially claimed to have been hired as interpreters. Others who in some capacity participated in the attack, such as Haitian-Chilean citizen Rodolphe Jaar and retired Colombian army colonel German Rivera, were sentenced to life in prison. Vincent is set to be sentenced on February 9th. Reuters Associated Press
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.
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