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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Congress abandons efforts to approve new Ukraine aid before new year.  U.S. Congressional lawmakers have given up on efforts to approve continued financial aid for Ukraine before going on break for the Christmas holiday, forcing Kyiv to face the possibility it will head into 2024 with a diminishing weapons stockpile, and with no guarantee of Washington’s continued aid. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday said that lawmakers needed more time to make decisions, particularly due to the Republican party’s dedication to achieving immigration policy and border restriction changes before considering additional foreign aid. Schumer told reporters that he seeks to settle the issue and “get something done” as soon as the lawmakers return in January. Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the situation on Tuesday, claiming that Ukraine “is suffering heavy losses and has largely squandered its reserves.” Schumer and GOP leader Mitch McConnell released a joint statement promising their “commitment” to not only “addressing needs at the southern border,” but also to aiding “allies and partners” in confronting “serious threats in Israel, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.” Bloomberg New York Times Le Monde  

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel continues ground operations, airstrikes in Gaza.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli troops are entering Hamas tunnels in northern Gaza as part of a “final clearing” of militants in the area.  The Israeli military added that it took “operational control” of the Jabalia refugee camp on Tuesday and claimed that it killed hundreds of Hamas militants and detained another 500 suspected fighters there.  Gallant also said military operations in southern Gaza, including fighting in the area’s largest city Khan Younis, could continue for “months” and reiterated that Israel will not stop until it achieves its goal of eliminating Hamas.  Israel also continues to launch air strikes across Gaza, including in Jabalia in the north and Rafah in the south.  Witnesses and Gaza officials report that the attacks have killed dozens of Palestinians.  Church authorities and rights group also report that Israeli forces raided the Al-Alhi Hospital and Al Awda Hospital this week, detaining many medical staff members.  The Israeli military did not comment on the matter but has accused Hamas of operating out of Gaza hospitals.  Hamas continues to fight against Israeli forces in Gaza and fire rockets into Israel.  The group said it fired a barrage at Tel Aviv on Tuesday.  Air raid sirens went off in central Israel but there were no reported casualties or damage.  Associated Press Reuters 

Biden says Israel must distinguish between civilians and Hamas, acknowledges Israel’s “burden.”  President Joe Biden says that Israel has a responsibility to “minimize civilian deaths” in its conflict with Hamas militants in Gaza, as the reported death toll from Israeli strikes in the Palestinian enclave approaches 20,000. He highlighted, however, Israel’s “burden” in battling the Hamas organization, “a military enemy” seeking the “elimination – using terror – of the entire state of Israel.” Biden also said he was engaging with “Israel and Arab partners” about securing “a political future for the Palestinian people and a two-state solution with Israel’s security guaranteed,” in which Israel has stability, and “normal relations with Arab neighbors.” He doubled down on the idea that Hamas may have attacked Israel on October 7th because he was “working very closely” with Saudi Arabia on achieving the formal recognition of the state of Israel.  Al Jazeera  Times of Israel 

Hamas leader visits Egypt amid intensive talks on new ceasefire.  Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh visited Egypt yesterday amid what one source said are intense talks on a new ceasefire to allow aid to reach Gaza and to free Israeli hostages. Haniyeh rarely participates in diplomacy publicly, and his intervention now is seen as a sign that progress is likely. His last trip to Egypt in early November preceded the announcement of a week-long ceasefire, the only cessation of hostilities in the war so far. A source briefed on the negotiations says officials are discussing which hostages might be released and which Palestinian prisoners Israel might free under a new agreement and that a breakthrough might be possible within days. A Palestinian official said Haniyeh was eager to hear from Egyptian officials about a new approach, but he reiterated that Hamas continues to want an end to the fighting rather than a pause. A senior Israeli official repeated Israel’s position that the war will end only with the release of all hostages and the destruction of Hamas. Reuters

UN vote on Gaza delayed another day amid talks to avoid US veto.  The U.N. Security Council again delayed a vote on an Arab-sponsored resolution for a new ceasefire and increased aid in Gaza.  The vote was set for Monday but has been pushed to Wednesday as talks continue to get the U.S. to abstain or vote in favor of the resolution, after it vetoed a previous call for a ceasefire.  The U.S. and Israel oppose language about a ceasefire since they believe it would allow Hamas time to regroup and recover.  Washington instead supports pauses in fighting to facilitate aid deliveries and hostage releases.  The U.S. is also reportedly in opposition to a proposal in the resolution that would establish a U.N. monitoring mechanism for aid to Gaza.  Reuters Washington Post 

Hamas and rival Palestinian factions reportedly discussing post-war plans.  Hamas’s political leaders are reportedly engaging in talks with Palestinian rivals about the governance of Gaza and the West Bank after the Israel-Hamas war ends.  Discussions have reportedly considered several post-war scenarios, including Hamas joining the Palestine Liberation Organization and supporting negotiations for a Palestinian state within 1967 borders.  Despite such engagement from Hamas’s political leaders, there is no indication that the group seeks to demilitarize or change its stance on Israel.  The talks have also notably led to tensions between Hamas political leaders and the group’s military wing, led by Yahya Sinwar, who opposes compromises while the conflict with Israel continues.  Some analysts say Hamas’s outreach to other Palestinian factions is a response to potential military setbacks and a desire to negotiate a deal amid expanding Israeli military operations in Gaza.  The U.S. says it has considered a post-war Gaza being ruled by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but challenges remain in establishing a secure, sustainable political framework.  Wall Street Journal 

ANALYSIS: How US warships are shooting down Houthi drones in the Red Sea, and what might come next.  U.S. warships in the Red Sea have been fighting a growing number of drones and missiles fired by Houthis over the past several weeks. While the U.S. Navy has not specified which weapons it is using, experts say a U.S. destroyer can employ a range of systems. In deciding which systems to use, commanding officers face decisions on cost, inventory and effectiveness as the U.S. mission grows. Experts say drones can be produced for less than $100,000 apiece, while advanced interceptor missiles can cost around $2 million each, so a prolonged campaign could tax American resources. Council on Foreign Relations fellow John Bradford said drones are slower and can be hit with less expensive missiles or the ship’s gun, while hitting faster missiles requires more sophisticated interceptor missiles. Experts say that at some point, the U.S. may decide it needs to go on offense, striking the Houthis’ capabilities at their source. CNN

OPINION: U.S.-led multinational naval force must step up to counter Houthis.  Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief Expert Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) writes in Bloomberg about Operation Prosperity Guardian, the new U.S.-led multinational operation that aims to protect shipping in the Red Sea from attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis.  Stavridis argues that while the Houthis say the attacks are in response to Israeli military operations in Gaza, it is likely that the attacks are aimed at probing weaknesses to support future Iranian attacks against Western interests.  He also notes that the disruption to shipping in the region increases oil prices, which benefits Tehran, and puts pressure on Israel over its attacks in Gaza.  Stavridis suggests that the operation should be prepared to take offensive action, targeting both Houthi infrastructure on the southern Arabian peninsula, as well as Iranian maritime infrastructure in the north Indian Ocean and the Gulf if needed.  Second, Stavridis says members of the operation must closely collaborate to ensure comprehensive intelligence and wide-area surveillance.  Third, the operation must expand and should especially focus on bringing in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the E.U.  Fourth, Stavridis says the U.S. must engage with the private sector on the issue, especially shipping companies.  In sum, Stavridis acknowledges the challenge of countering Houthi attacks but is optimistic that Operation Prosperity Guardian is a strategic step forward.  Bloomberg 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian military says Russia launched air attack on Kyiv for fifth time this month.  The Ukrainian military said on Wednesday that Russian forces launched their fifth air assault this month on Kyiv. Ukraine’s Air Force said air defense systems downed 18 out of 19 attack drones launched towards Kyiv, Odesa, Kherson and other regions. Serhiy Popko, the chief of Kyiv's military administration, said there were no reports of casualties or damage from the attack.  Separately, Russia reportedly struck the eastern region of Kharkiv with two surface-to-air guided missiles, though there were no reported casualties. The regions of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad were reportedly still under threat of ballistic missile attacks.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Ukraine conducts test flight at closed airport with Boeing aircraft.  Ukrainian officials say they have been engaged in discussions about reopening Ukraine’s Boryspil International Airport, which is currently closed due to war.  The announcement follows the recent flight of a Boeing 777-300, operated by Skyline Express which took off with no passengers or cargo.  Officials say the operation, described as a “technical flight”, demonstrates that the airport's infrastructure and working conditions are intact despite Russian air attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that reopening the airport would symbolize a victory for Ukraine, especially its economy. Video footage showed the plane's departure with no apparent damage, marking the fourth successful departure since the war disrupted the airport's operations. Ukraine plans to reopen Boryspil at the earliest possible moment, despite the current airspace closure, citing strengthened and improved air defense capabilities.  Reuters

Ukraine military proposes mobilization of 450,000-500,000 new soldiers.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy said on Tuesday that the military has proposed mobilizing 450,000-500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces, which would mark a substantial step in Kyiv’s efforts to repel Russia’s invasion.  Zelensky said in November that he instructed the Ukrainian military leadership to develop a new mobilization plan.  He added that any plan must also address rotation, demobilization, and troop morale.  Zelensky said the mobilization could cost around $13.4 billion and that he plans to cut government spending to prioritize mobilization efforts.  He also noted that he will not support the mobilization of women.  Both Ukraine and Russia closely guard information about the size of their militaries.  Russia said on Tuesday that it aimed to expand its military to 1.5 million personnel.  Separately, Zelensky also vowed that Ukraine will produce 1 million drones next year for use in its fight against Russia.  He also said he remains confident that the U.S. and E.U. will approve new aid to support Kyiv.  He additionally dismissed suggestions that he has a tenuous relationship with army chief Valery Zaluzhny, though he asserted that he is still waiting for “very concrete things on the battlefield” from the Ukrainian military leadership.  Associated Press Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent Defense Post Reuters Reuters

Putin claims Russia ready to negotiate on Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Tuesday that Moscow is prepared to discuss the future of Ukraine with Kyiv, the E.U. and Europe, but noted that Russia will negotiate “based on our national interests.”  He added that Russia “will not give up what is ours,” likely referring to Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  Ukrainian and Western officials have said that Russia can end the war if it withdraws all of its forces from Ukrainian territory.  Western officials have added that they believe Putin will wait till after the U.S. presidential election in November next year before making any genuine effort to end the conflict.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said it would be “impossible” to negotiate with Putin given Russia’s record of lies and breaking promises.  Zelensky has also said that conditions for peace include restoration of territorial integrity, compensation for losses in the war, punishment of war criminals, and guarantees against future Russian aggression.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Philippines rebukes Beijing over tensions and South China Sea claims.  Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro rebuked China for accusing his country of provoking tension in the South China Sea, stating that no country in the world unequivocally supports China's claim to the entire South China Sea. Tensions have escalated between the two nations following recent collisions in the contested waterway. China claims almost the entire South China Sea, conflicting with territorial claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 rejected China's claims, a decision supported by the United States but rejected by Beijing. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called for a "paradigm shift" in dealing with the South China Sea issue, citing a poor direction in diplomatic efforts with China. Tensions have increased under Marcos, who criticizes China's "aggressive" behavior while seeking closer ties with the United States. China expressed willingness to keep the door of dialogue open.  Reuters

US condemns North Korean ICBM launch, China and Russia defend Pyongyang.  The U.S. and its allies condemned North Korea’s launch of an ICBM on Monday at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Tuesday and called on Pyongyang to focus on diplomacy, feeding its people and addressing human rights violations. China and Russia defended North Korea, asserting that the crisis was caused by American aggression, specifically military exercises in the region and a recent South Korean port call by a U.S. nuclear submarine.  South China Morning Post 

Taiwan to 'handle' spate of Chinese balloons based on threat level. Taiwan's defense ministry stated that it will "handle" Chinese balloons flying nearby based on threat assessments, while noting that the current wave of balloons is believed to be for weather purposes driven by prevailing winds at this time of year.  The defense ministry has reported four instances of Chinese balloons flying over the sensitive Taiwan Strait this month. The ministry said it also plans to announce if the balloons are determined to be for surveillance purposes or connected to Taiwan’s upcoming election. China's defense ministry has not responded to requests for comment on the balloons.  The potential for China to use balloons for spying gained global attention in February when the U.S. shot down what it claimed was a Chinese surveillance balloon, an assertion that China refuted. Taiwan is on high alert for Chinese activities, both military and political, ahead of its Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections.  Reuters 

New Zealand to explore AUKUS benefits, boost security ties with Australia.  New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Tuesday he will consider the benefits of joining a part of the AUKUS defense agreement that focuses on shared military technology. Visiting Australia on his first trip abroad since taking office last month, Luxon said the AUKUS weapons development and procurement project would help ensure peace and stability in the Pacific region. During a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Luxon also said close security ties with Australia are “very foundational,” and Albanese said Australia would work with New Zealand to strengthen their trade and economic ties and to respond to shared challenges.  Reuters Bloomberg 

US looking to Japan to help Ukraine air defense needs.  Japan is expected to make an official change in defense export policy this week that will allow it to export several dozen Patriot missiles manufactured in Japan to the U.S. to replenish the American supply. That would in turn provide the U.S. flexibility to send more Patriots to Ukraine as Kyiv readies itself for more Russian air strikes. U.S. officials said the change in Japanese policy meets a key request by the Biden administration, which has increasingly urged allies to provide weaponry for Ukraine.  Washington Post 

Malaysia bars entry of Israeli ships over Gaza conflict.  The office of Malaysian President Anwar Ibrahim has released a statement announcing the immediate ban on the Israeli-based ZIM shipping company, due to Israel’s military operations against Palestinians in Gaza. Malaysia accuses Israel of disregarding “the basic principles of humanity,” violating international law, and perpetrating “massacre and brutality” against those in the volatile enclave and as a result Malaysia will no longer accept Israel-flagged vessels in ports. Kuala Lumpur will also bar “any ship enroute to Israel from loading cargo at Malaysian ports.” The two new restrictions go into effect immediately. Bloomberg Al Jazeera CNN 

Nicaragua advances ties with China in search for financial aid amid West’s sanctions.  The Chinese foreign ministry announced that Nicaragua and China boosted their bilateral ties on Wednesday, as Beijing seeks to expand its global influence in exchange for economic support of the sanctioned Central American country. In 2021, the two countries re-established diplomatic relations after Managua cut off ties with Taiwan in favor of potential economic benefits from relations with China. Western powers such as the U.S., U.K., Canada, and European nations have imposed sanctions on Nicaragua over alleged human rights violations, in particular the country’s clampdown on anti-government protests. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega spoke on the phone to celebrate two years of resumed ties, and China reasserted its commitment to help Nicaragua “in steadily moving forward with its domestic political agenda.” The readout from the call also noted Beijing’s “resolute” opposition to “interference in Nicaragua's internal affairs by external forces.” Managua reassured Beijing again that it would not have any official exchanges with Taiwan.  Reuters

Europe

Putin says Russian nuclear arsenal modernized.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech at the Defense Ministry in Moscow on Tuesday that Russia has modernized almost all of its strategic nuclear arsenal as the country faces “new military-political risks.” Putin also asserted that the war in Ukraine has shifted in Russia’s favor. U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the White House is aware of Putin’s comments and that while officials take his nuclear rhetoric seriously, they have not seen any reason to adjust the U.S. nuclear posture or any indication that Russia is planning to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Watson also said Putin’s announcement is not surprising because Russia has been modernizing its nuclear weapons for years.  Bloomberg 

Russia warns of response to defense pact between U.S. and Finland.  Russia’s foreign ministry summoned Finland’s ambassador on Tuesday to object to a new defense agreement between Finland and the U.S. that grants the U.S. wide access to Finland’s long border with Russia. The ambassador was told that Russia would not leave the potential buildup of NATO military potential on the border “unanswered” and that Moscow would take the necessary measures to counter the provocative decision of Finland and its NATO allies. The agreement listed 15 facilities and areas where the U.S. military will have unfettered access and can store military equipment and equipment, including four air bases and a military port. The Kremlin said on Friday that the deal would “pose an obvious threat” to Russia.  Finland became NATO’s newest member in early 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Reuters

Middle East

U.S. sanctions entities linked to Iranian drone production.  The U.S. Treasury Department has announced new sanctions on 10 entities and four individuals in Iran, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Indonesia that are accused of having provided parts for the production of Iranian military drones. The department said the Iran-based network has facilitated the procurement of components worth hundreds of thousands of dollars from the U.S. and other countries. Iranian-manufactured Shahed drones have become a major weapon for Russia in the war in Ukraine, with reports of attacks using Shahed “kamikaze” drones on an almost daily basis across the country.  Al Jazeera Kyiv Independent 

Africa

Egypt says talks over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have failed.  Egypt’s ministry of water resources and irrigation said on Tuesday that the latest talks with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have failed but that it would monitor the process of filling and operating the dam. The ministry added that Egypt reserves the right to defend its water and national security.  Egypt has long opposed the dam over concerns about how it will impact the flow of water into the Nile. Ethiopia argues that the dam is an exercise of its right to economic development. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said Egypt had misrepresented Ethiopia’s positions in the talks and that Egypt retains a “colonial mentality” that has blocked efforts to reach agreement, but the ministry also said Ethiopia remains committed to a settlement that addresses the concerns of both Egypt and Sudan.  Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Israel rushes to deploy counter-drone defenses against low-cost Hamas UAV’s.  The war with Hamas has been described as a wake-up call for leading military forces as the terrorist group surprised Israel’s defense and intelligence forces with a large-scale use of inexpensive drones and other off-the-shelf technologies to launch their October 7 assault.  Notably, the attack began with Israel’s $1 billion security fence being overflown by $6,500 Hamas drones designed to knock out cameras, communications, and remote-controlled gun systems.  Bentzion Levinson, the CEO of Heven Drones which supplies the Israeli military with sophisticated drone systems, noted the vulnerability exposed in Israel’s advanced defenses by an enemy operating cheap, commercial systems on a shoestring budget.  In response to the continuing threat, apart from what the Israeli military is doing to develop UAV countermeasures, Israeli startups and volunteers are working on new defenses against kamikaze drone attacks.  Volunteers in Tel Aviv operating as the “Israel Tech Guard” developed a system in four days that links two mobile phone cameras and audio systems to scan the skies for drones.  The alert system, which can be mounted on vehicles, currently is undergoing field testing.  On October 7, Israel had a counter-drone system on the Gaza border that was not operational at the time.  Sentrycs, the company that designed the system, said final testing was scheduled for a few days after the surprise attack. The system, which can detect and take control of drones from several kilometers away, is now deployed on Israeli military vehicles along the border and near strategic assets.  Bloomberg

Xfinity customer data exposure due to ‘Citrix Bleed’ flaw reaches 36 million.  Data of nearly 36 million customers of the Xfinity cable TV and Internet provider have been exposed in a system breach that exploited a widespread vulnerability in October.  The “Citrix Bleed” flaw in Xfinity systems was exploited between October 16-19.  Xfinity said it patched its systems on October 23 after receiving additional guidance from Citrix, which first announced the bug on October 10.  Xfinity said in its breach filing that customer information was “likely acquired,” including “usernames and hashed passwords for some customers.  Other customer information that may have been exposed includes “names, contact information, last four digits of social security numbers, dates of birth and/or secret questions and answers.”  Xfinity has alerted customers to reset passwords and urges the use of two-factor authentication on accounts.  The Record Cybernews

EU plans additional resources for AI startups to make use of bloc computing power.  The EU is taking steps to reinforce the access it is granting to artificial intelligence (AI) startups in the community to high performance computing, an essential resource for developing AI models.  Since the computing access program was launched last month, it has been discovered that additional support in the proper use of computing power is needed for some startup firms.  An EU official explained that this additional training encompasses not only how computing access can be facilitated, but how “to develop training algorithms that are using the best of the architecture and the computing power that is available right now.”  The EU plans to establish “centers of excellence” that will support the development of AI algorithms running on EU supercomputers.  Also planned is an “AI support center” that will have “a special track” for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME’s) and startups to capitalize on the EU’s supercomputing resource.  An EU official added, “what we need to recognize is that the AI community have not been using supercomputers for the last decade.  They’re not new users to GPUs but they’re new users to how to engage with a supercomputer and therefore we need to help them.”  TechCrunch

Caltech researchers report significant advance in quantum error reduction.  A group of Caltech researchers have made progress in a fundamental problem with quantum systems, which is that they tend to commit more errors than traditional computers.  In an article in the Nature journal, the research team describes how they can isolate and correct mistakes known as “erasure” errors in quantum systems.  Adam Shaw, a co-author of the study, noted the difficulty of identifying errors in quantum computers since the very act of looking for errors triggers others to occur.  But he said the CalTech study demonstrates that through careful control “we can precisely locate and erase certain errors without consequence, which is where the name erasure comes from.”  The new error-detection system causes erroneous atoms to light up when hit with a laser.  Pascal Scholl, the study’s other co-author, said that “we have images of the glowing atoms that tell us where the errors are, so we can either leave them out of the final statistics or apply additional laser pulses to actively correct them.”  The Caltech team says that they can improve the overall rate of entanglement, or fidelity, by removing and locating errors in their Rydberg atom system.  These results are hopeful news for quantum computing platforms employing Rydberg neutral atom arrays.  SciTechDaily

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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