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9:40 AM ET, Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Intelligence Assesses Russia has Lost Significant Amount of Military Personnel, Equipment in Ukraine War.  A declassified U.S. intelligence assessment says that Russia has suffered staggering losses in its invasion of Ukraine, with 315,000 Russian troops having been killed or injured since the start of the war.  These losses amount to nearly 90% of the 360,000 personnel in the Russian army at the start of the war.  Russia has been forced to mobilize new recruits, including convicts, to make up for the losses.  The report also says that Russia’s losses in personnel and equipment have set its military’s modernization efforts back by 15 years.  For example, the report said Moscow began the invasion with 3,500 tanks but has lost 2,200, forcing it to deploy T-62 tanks produced in the 1970s.  The Russian embassy and the Russian defense ministry did not comment on the report, but Russian officials have previously rejected Western estimates on Russian losses as greatly exaggerated. Ukraine treats its military losses as a state secret and does not disclose them to avoid harming the war effort. However, a New York Times report in August cited U.S. officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll close to 70,000.  The report on Russia’s military losses came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy appealed to U.S. lawmakers in Washington D.C. to approve more military aid for Kyiv.  New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

McConnell Says Border-Ukraine Deal Practically Impossible Before Year End.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday that it is “practically impossible” for an agreement tying Ukraine aid to border security to be reached by the end of the year. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) echoed McConnell’s comments, saying the House is set to adjourn this week and “is not going to wait around” for Senate negotiators to make a deal. McConnell also said that if it were possible to reach an agreement before January, “full engagement from the White House ''would be needed. Despite the pessimism on reaching a deal, talks continue. Soon after McConnell made his comments, Senate negotiators met with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and White House officials for about two hours, after which Senator Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) said “substantive progress” was made. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he asked McConnell and House Speaker Mike Johnson to remain in Washington beyond this week to help reach a deal. Johnson responded that he is open to the idea, but he added that the Senate has not sent the House an offer yet, and he does not want to “have everybody sit here twiddling their thumbs.” After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Johnson also complained that the Biden Administration is asking for billions of dollars in additional aid “with no appropriate oversight” and “no clear strategy to win.” Politico Bloomberg Reuters

Biden Says Putin Betting on Ukraine Losing U.S. Support.  With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by his side at the White House yesterday, President Biden said Russian President Putin is counting on the U.S. failing to support Ukraine and that “we must prove him wrong.” Biden cited commentary from Russian broadcasters praising Congressional Republicans for refusing to approve new assistance for Ukraine. Biden said Republicans are holding military assistance to Ukraine hostage to “an extreme Republican partisan agenda on the border,” but he also said he and his senior aides are working toward a bipartisan compromise. New York Times Bloomberg 

Israel Begins Flooding Gaza’s Vast Tunnel Network with Seawater.  U.S. officials said that the Israeli military has begun flooding Gaza’s extensive, underground tunnel system with sea water from the Mediterranean.  Israel says that Hamas uses the tunnels to hold hostages, store weapons and munitions, move fighters, and control its forces. A spokesperson from Israel’s defense ministry refused to comment on the matter, saying that activities in the tunnels are classified. Reported recordings, which were leaked last week, appear to reveal Israelis furiously confronting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the flooding, in fear that the water would kill hostages being held underground. On Tuesday, when asked by a journalist about the flooding plan, President Joe Biden said he did not “know that for a fact” that the tunnels were free of hostages and that over 100 hostages could be affected. He declined to directly answer questions about whether Israel had begun flooding operations. U.S. officials speaking on the matter said that Israel has installed seven pumps and performed some preliminary tests, though they are still evaluating the benefit of using seawater in a network that stretches for around 300 miles and has strong blast doors. The process of flooding the labyrinth could take weeks, according to the officials. Some Biden administration officials have expressed concerns that the flooding could endanger Gaza’s supply of fresh water and harm crops. Other U.S. officials believe, however, that the flooding may be effective in destroying some parts of the underground system.  Wall Street Journal Reuters The Times of Israel 

U.S. Sanctions Russian Military-Industrial Network.  The U.S. on Tuesday imposed new sanctions on over 250 people and entities in China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates as part of efforts to counter Russian evasion of sanctions.  The Treasury Department said that it imposed sanctions on four entities and nine individuals based in China, Russia, Hong Kong, and Pakistan over the transfer of Chinese military technology to Russia. The department added that it also targeted companies in Turkey, the UAE, and China over the shipment of technology and equipment including ball bearings, aircraft parts, and X-ray machines. Some Chinese firms targeted include commercial satellite companies accused of providing high-resolution images to Russia’s Wagner Group.  Several Chinese entities were also targeted for their alleged role in procuring microelectronics for Russian state conglomerate Rostec for use in the development of electronic warfare systems.  A spokesperson from China’s foreign ministry said Beijing opposes the measures as “illegal” and “unilateral” and asserted that China regulates shipment of military and dual-use goods.   Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury South China Morning Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

U.N. General Assembly Votes in Favor of Gaza Humanitarian Ceasefire.  The U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) approved a non-binding resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.  Of the 193-member body, 153 members voted in favor of the resolution, 23 abstained, and 10 voted against, including Israel and the U.S.  The vote is the latest show of international pressure on Israel over its military operations in Gaza.  It also comes after the U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that likewise called for a humanitarian ceasefire.  Reuters Al Jazeera BBC CNN 

Canada Supports Ceasefire in Gaza.  In an apparent shift, Canada said yesterday it supports a nonbinding U.N. resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau joined the leaders of Australia and New Zealand in a joint statement saying they support “urgent international efforts toward a sustainable ceasefire.” CNN 

Jake Sullivan and Lloyd Austin to Travel to Israel.  U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced that national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will visit Israel this week for crucial meetings with Israeli officials. Biden said Sullivan is expected to speak with the Israeli War Cabinet to “emphasize” Washington’s “commitment” to its close ally as well as highlight the necessity of protecting civilians, and securing “more humanitarian assistance” for Palestinians in Gaza. Biden added that Austin would “step up the international efforts to protect the free flow of commerce through the Red Sea.”  CNN Times of Israel

20% of Israeli Soldiers Deaths in Gaza War Result of Accidents.  The Israeli military said on Tuesday that 105 troops have been killed in Gaza since October 27th, when ground operations began, and that 20% of those deaths were the result of accidents. Twenty soldiers in total have been killed in accidents, with 13 killed by Israeli fire, six from mistakes related to “weaponry, machinery or trampling,” and one from an irregularity concerning firing. A civil-military relations expert at the Open University of Israel, Yagil Levy, said this high rate of incidents could be caused by exhaustion, eased rules of engagement, and the fact that a large amount of Israeli forces are operating under challenging conditions in a concentrated urban environment, including battles in subterranean tunnel networks. Levy added that the high death toll “by accidents or friendly fire is unprecedented in Israeli terms.”  He also said Israel’s decision to release data on the matter now rather than at the end of the conflict reflects concerns about “the drop of public trust in the military.” New York Times Times of Israel NBC 

Israel Claims 19 Hostages in Gaza Dead in Absentia.  Israel on Tuesday said that 19 out of 135 people still being held hostage in Gaza were dead in absentia. This announcement followed the revelation that their forces had found the bodies of two hostages, a civilian and an IDF warrant officer. The Israeli government press office said a Tanzanian national was among the 19 who were declared dead. Tanzania said that two of its nationals, both of them agriculture students, were taken hostage in the October 7th Hamas attacks. One of the students was confirmed to be dead in November. Reuters Times of Israel

Houthis Gain Regional Clout with Ship Attacks.  Analysts say that with its missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthi militia has gained popularity across the Middle East that could help expand its power at home. Houthi missile and drone attacks on southern Israel also have drawn praise in the region. Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemeni research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based research group Chatham House, said that with the Houthis now on the verge of a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia that could recognize their control over northern Yemen, the war in Gaza is “a massive opportunity to get legitimacy in the region.” Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said people in Arab countries may increasingly believe that they cannot trust their governments and that non-state actors such as the Houthis are their only hope in countering what they see as Western hegemony. New York Times New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Air Force says Ukrainian Forces Down 10 Russian Drones, 10 Missiles Overnight.  The Ukrainian Air Force reported early on Wednesday that its forces managed to intercept and down 10 Shahed kamikaze drones and 10 ballistic missiles launched by Russia. Nearly all the drones, which were launched from the occupied Crimean Peninsula, were downed over the Odesa region. The missiles were fired at Kyiv at around 3 a.m. They were all downed. Dniprovskyi Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced on Telegram that falling missile debris injured at least 45 people and damaged parts of the city, including a hospital. A water supply system in Dniprovskyi was damaged after missile fragments landed on a roadway. Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Hungary Open to Ukraine Aid for Unfreezing of E.U. Funds.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief political advisor Balazs Orban said on Tuesday that Hungary is prepared to lift its veto of a $54 billion E.U. proposal to provide aid to Ukraine in return for $30 billion the E.U. has been withholding from Budapest over rule of law and corruption concerns.  In an interview published today, Orban said financial issues could be part of a bargain, but that he opposes making negotiations over E.U. membership for Ukraine part of the discussion. E.U. leaders are set to discuss the bloc’s budget at a summit starting on Wednesday.  Bloomberg 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Senate Confirms Coker To Carry Out Sweeping Agenda as National Cyber Director.  The U.S. Senate on Tuesday confirmed Harry Coker as the new National Cyber Director to coordinate Federal policies on a range of cyber issues, and to manage implementation of the administration’s national strategies for cybersecurity and workforce and education.  Coker previously served as NSA executive director preceded by 17 years with the CIA.  At his confirmation hearing, Coker committed to implementation of the national strategy that spans 18 Federal components and involves collaboration with the private sector as well as state and local governments.  The breadth of the work Coker’s office takes on is sizable, covering critical infrastructure regulations to cyber diplomacy to workforce issues.  The strategy implementation plan is expected to be updated next year.  Coker’s office also is responsible for attempting to harmonize an array of federal cyber regulations.  The Record CyberScoop Axios

Ukraine Defense Intelligence Agency Claims Devastating Hack of Russian Tax Service.  Thousands of servers of Russia’s state tax service (FNS) have been infected with malware in an operation carried out by Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate (GUR).  The cyberattack also destroyed tax service databases and backup files.  Ukraine’s military hackers breached one of the national tax service’s “key well-protected central servers.”  The attack also compromised more than 2,000 regional servers throughout Russia and Crimea as well as a Russian tech company that operates the FNS database.  The GUR claimed the “complete destruction” of the FNS infrastructure and said they wiped out configuration files that “ensured the functioning of Russia's tax system."  Internet links connected the FNS Moscow office and thousands of regional centers are “paralyzed,” according to the GUR.   FNS operations, the intelligence agency said, have been disrupted for four days and probably with the disruption likely to last at least a month.  The GRU offered the assessment that the tax agency probably likely “will never fully recover from the attack."  The Record

SpaceX Launch of X-37B Spaceplane Rescheduled for Wednesday Evening.  SpaceX has rescheduled the launch of its Falcon heavy rocket carrying the Pentagon’s X-37B spaceplane into orbit for Wednesday evening.  The delay in Monday’s scheduled launch was caused by “a ground side issue," according to a post on SpaceX’s X account.  SpaceX added that the "vehicle and payload remain healthy."  The new launch window is 8:13 pm EST on Wednesday.  This is the first X-37B mission aboard a Falcon Heavy, which is capable of carrying the spaceplane into a higher orbit than ever before.  The space plane has flown six previous missions since 2010.  Space Force officials noted last month that one of the X-37B goals for this mission included "operating in new orbital regimes, experimenting with space domain awareness technologies and investigating the radiation effects to NASA materials."  Space Cybernews

CISA Issues Secure Guidelines for Google Workspace Following Microsoft Breach.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has issued new secure configuration baselines for Google Workspace to preclude another system compromise like that which occurred when a Chinese hacking group acquired a Microsoft signing key and accessed email accounts of senior U.S. officials.  CISA said malicious activity by groups like Storm-0558, which is believed to be responsible for the Microsoft breach, made clear the need to harden email and identify infrastructure “and (to enhance) the security of underlying cloud environments.”  CISA’s guidelines for Google Workspace follow the standards it issued in October 2022 for Microsoft 365.  Michael Duffy, CISA associate director for capacity building, wrote in a blog post that the agency’s use of the Secure Cloud Business Applications (SCuBA) assessment tool allowed the extension to Google Workspace of “advanced protections and configured cloud environments.”  In providing enhanced security baselines, CISA, according to Duffy, is telling organizations that “your people should be online, but probably not the devices on the edge that should be connecting to highly privileged accounts across your enterprise.”  CyberScoop

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

U.S. Denies Cuban Allegations that it is Plotting Violence, Unrest.  The U.S. State Department on Tuesday rejected Cuba’s claims that Washington is scheming how to stir up violence and unrest in the Caribbean country.  The Cuban Interior Ministry on Monday alleged that the U.S. and its intelligence services were plotting how to “increase subversive and violent attacks against Cuba in order to generate a social outbreak” before the end of the year. Cuba has not provided any evidence to support its assertions that there is a plot against the island nation.  Last week, Havana released a list of more than 80 foreign individuals and entities it accused of terrorism. The accused includes alleged subversives who live in the U.S., influencers, and even a mayoral candidate for Florida's Miami-Dade County. On Saturday, Cuban state media claimed that an armed Florida man rode a jet ski to Cuba to commit violent acts. An official from the U.S. State Department denied claims that Washington seeks to undermine the Cuban government and called the allegations “absurd.”  The U.S. official added that Havana’s accusations “are the newest iteration” of Cuban authorities’ attempts “to belittle emigrants exercising their freedom of speech.” The official also highlighted the nation’s “abysmal human rights record and relentless repression.” Reuters Reuters 

U.S. Considers Placing Visa Restrictions on Hondurans over New Prosecutor Dispute.  The U.S. is planning to impose visa curbs on some Honduran nationals for "fomenting violence” in the nation by undermining democracy in the appointment of a new attorney general.  U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller alleged that the unidentified individuals backed the "irregular and unprecedented" designations of a new attorney general in November. Miller said that the naming of this new prosecutor “undermined democracy and the rule of law" in Honduras, as lawmakers from President Xiomara Castro's Libre party forced though the new pick in a committee vote last month, rather than trying to confirm them in a fair vote in the entire opposition-controlled Congress. Reuters U.S. Department of State

India Asks FBI to Share Intelligence on Sikh Separatists.  India has reportedly requested the U.S. to share intelligence on Sikh separatists living on American soil. The National Investigations Agency (NIA), India's anti-terrorism agency, reportedly made this request during FBI Director Christopher Wray’s visit to India.  The NIA asked the U.S. to share information on suspected individuals recruited into the separatist movement. The issue of Sikh separatists operating against India from the U.S. was discussed by internal security officials from both countries. The Sikh homeland movement has gained global attention, with the U.S. and Canada accusing Indian officials of involvement in assassination plots against Sikh separatist leaders in North America. India denies any connection to these allegations but emphasizes its concern about Sikh separatist activities abroad.  A U.S. Embassy spokesperson confirmed that meetings were underway between Wray and Indian officials, but declined to provide any specifics. Reuters 

OPINION: Wall Street Journal Editorial Board on FISA Reauthorization.  With the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act set to expire at the end of the year, The Wall Street Journal weighs in on how to reauthorize Section 702 of the law, saying an increased risk of terrorism since the Hamas attack on Israel means doing it right has never been more important. The Journal opposes the House Judiciary Committee version, which would require a warrant in most cases for questioning “U.S. persons” even after collecting information lawfully. While bill sponsor Jim Jordan (R-OH) is right that surveillance power needs better safeguards, the stringent warrant requirement might prevent searches that could yield important information when every hour counts. The Journal says lawmakers have “better options to fix Section 702 without breaking it,” including creating a system for Congress to provide periodic review of the inquiries being made. The Journal says two competing bills are better than the House Judiciary bill. A bill in the Senate Intelligence Committee would prohibit questioning U.S. persons that are designed only to find evidence of a crime but would allow searches relevant to national security. The House Intelligence Committee has offered a similar proposal, which would reduce the number of FBI employees authorized to approve questioning U.S. persons by 90%, require independent audits, and create new categories of surveillance misconduct. The Journal adds that this week Congress will consider a proposal to extend the current law through April while the reauthorization debate continues.  Wall Street Journal

(Editor's Note: Cipher Brief Expert General Joseph Votel (Ret.) former Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, explains how critical the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act really is to national security. The Cipher Brief

A bi-partisan group of 44 members of the national security community, including many who have served in senior government roles, sent a letter to Congress this week, urging them to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which grants surveillance authorities that they describe as critical to U.S. national security. The Cipher Brief)

Europe

Hungary Passes ‘Sovereignty’ Law Aimed at Foreign Influence.  Hungary's parliament, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, passed a law aimed at "protecting national sovereignty" to counter perceived foreign political interference. The move comes as Orban intensifies his party's campaign ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. The law establishes a separate authority to assess and monitor risks of political interference, with up to three years in prison for parties or groups receiving banned foreign financing. The legislation faced criticism from the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights and the U.S. envoy to Hungary, who likened it to Russia's "foreign-agent bill." Orban, in power since 2010, denies accusations of undermining democracy in Hungary.  Reuters

EU Introducing New Investment Screening Measures in January Amid China Concerns.   The E.U. is set to introduce an initiative on screening outbound investments in January as part of a broader package to manage trade relations with China and address economic security. The move is aimed at preventing technologies and know-how from being used to enhance military capabilities and undermine global peace.  While the tools will be country-agnostic, they are broadly aimed at China. The package also includes plans to update regulations on screening inbound direct investment and proposals on export controls to enhance the E.U.'s global role. The E.U. has identified key technology sectors as priorities in its economic security strategy and plans to conduct joint risk assessments in the coming year.  South China Morning Post 

Asia and Oceania

South Korea Securing Shipbuilding Secrets Amid Shipping Competition with China.  China’s advancements in shipbuilding have led South Korea to step up its effort to secure international orders and maintain an edge in the manufacture of high-value ships, a major component of industry in South Korea.  Analysts say Seoul also seeks to protect its shipbuilding expertise from being copied. China already has used low-cost strategies and technical innovation to outpace South Korea in other manufacturing sectors. South Korea adopted tech-export restrictions in 2020, and Korean shipbuilders largely have abandoned their Chinese factories. At a meeting in Beijing last week, Chinese Vice-Minister for Commerce Wang Shouwen and South Korean Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun agreed to establish a dialogue on export controls and to establish a hotline, but details of the talks were not made public.  South China Morning Post

U.S., China Coordinating on Resuming Military Communications.  The U.S. and China are reportedly coordinating efforts to arrange military-to-military talks, following the agreement between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at their summit last month. The talks aimed to resume communication channels that were severed after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, a move that angered China.  A Pentagon spokesperson said that there is active coordination with Beijing, but no specific engagements have been announced. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed confidence in the progress of military communication, emphasizing the importance of sustaining it through potential ups and downs in the future. The Biden administration reportedly seeks ongoing communication between the two countries' military leaders and commanders in specific geographic areas.  Reuters 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report. 

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