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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, August 16, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

North Korea Makes First Public Comments on US Army Private Travis King.  North Korea’s state media KCNA asserted Wednesday that American soldier Travis King, who on July 18th sprinted across the fortified border and into the country, wants refuge due to "inhuman maltreatment and racial discrimination" in the US and the military. KCNA reported that North Korean investigators said the army private “confessed that he had decided to come over to the DPRK as he harbored ill feelings against inhuman maltreatment and racial discrimination within the U.S. Army . . . He also expressed his willingness to seek refuge in the DPRK or a third country, saying that he was disillusioned at the unequal American society." Officials in North Korea have cited social issues in the US, such as racism, to challenge international criticism, including a Thursday UN Security Council gathering to discuss human rights in the country. Former North Korean diplomat and South Korean legislator Tae Yong-ho said that Pyongyang’s characterization of King as an “illegal intruder” as well as its reference to a third nation, suggests a potential unwillingness to hold the soldier and “raises the possibility for North Korea to send him to a third country, where U.S. officials can pick up and bring him home if he wishes." Reuters BBC Associated Press CNN

UN Chief Guterres Says 'Robust Use of Force' Required to Demobilize Haiti's Gangs.  In a report viewed by Reuters on Tuesday, UN chief Antonio Guterres told the Security Council that a "robust use of force" by international police units and the employment of military resources was required in Haiti to dissolve its gangs and restore peace and order. Last year, Port-au-Prince requested international aid in countering gang violence, which has taken over the capital, and Guterres suggested the deployment of a “rapid action force” to back Haitian police. Guterres’ report highlighted two possibilities for the UN, either to fortify an existing political mission in Haiti or to offer logistical support to a multinational force and the Caribbean nation’s police. He said, "Haiti's current context is not conducive to peacekeeping . . . Nothing short of the robust use of force, complemented by a suite of non-kinetic measures, by a capable specialized multinational police force enabled by military assets, coordinated with the national police, would be able to achieve these objectives.” Reuters

Western Europe

German Domestic Intelligence Agency Investigating Former Leader.  Hans-Georg Manssen, the former president of Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), is reportedly under investigation by his former agency.  The former German domestic intelligence chief was removed from his post in 2018 after appearing to dismiss right-wing violence targeting migrants.  Manssen reportedly said he is “outraged” over the reported investigation and said it would amount to political persecution.  A spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of the Interior did not deny that inquiries into Manssen have been made.  Manssen is a member of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center right Christian Democrats (CDU), which tried to expel him over accusations that he uses the language of conspiracy theorists and anti-Semites.  Deutsche Welle

Central & Eastern Europe

Ukraine Recaptures Village of Urozhaine from Russian Forces.  Ukrainian forces say they have captured the village of Urozhaine from Russia and are dug in on the village's outskirts.  Urozhaine is in the Donetsk region and lies just over 55 miles from the Sea of Azov.  Ukraine’s military is pressing forward with an attempt to reach the Sea of Azov in an attempt to sever a land bridge between Crimea and Russia.  The capture would mark the first village that Ukraine has retaken from Russian forces since the July 27 liberation of the nearby village of Staromaiorske.  Notably the success in retaking Urozhaine puts Ukraine’s military in a better position to advance on Staromlynivka, another village that is ‘several kilometers’ to the south still but which analysts say is a Russian stronghold.  Reuters New York Times

Ukraine’s SBU Chief Cites Recent Strikes in Black Sea, Promises More.  CNN is out with a report that examines the recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets in the Black Sea.  CNN says they were provided exclusive footage of the recent attack on the Kerch Strait bridge by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which marks the first time the SBU has publicly taken credit for the strike that damaged the bridge.  The head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk told CNN that the strike used a maritime drone, called the “Sea Baby”, that is an invention of the Security Service of Ukraine. Maliuk says the drones are made at an underground facility in Ukraine, where work to develop the weapon began shortly after the full-scale invasion in February 2022.  Maliuk’s direct and public claim of responsibility for the attack marks a rare admission by the SBU and what CNN referred to as “an unusually direct bid to alert Moscow to the threat”.  Maliuk says that the SBU is working on a number of new operations that include more Black Sea targets and promised that “it’ll be exciting, especially for our enemies”.  CNN

Russian Defense Minister Says Ukraine War Reveals Weakness of Western Weapons.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told officials on Tuesday at a Moscow security conference that Ukraine’s fighting capabilities have been "almost exhausted" and that the war has revealed the weaknesses of Western weapons systems. Without providing evidence to support his claims, Shoigu said "in the special military operation, the Russian army has debunked many myths about the superiority of Western military standards . . . the preliminary results of combat operations show that Ukraine's military resources are almost exhausted." Shoigu also asserted that Russia has compiled data on “the destruction of German tanks, American armored vehicles, British missiles and other weapons systems.” Shoigu accused the West of fueling tensions around Taiwan, and in remarks aimed pointedly at Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who attended the conference, he stated that “bilateral relations between Russia and China have surpassed the level of strategic ties in all respects, becoming more than just allied." Reuters 

Asia & Oceania

Philippines National Security Document Expresses Concern Over Potential Taiwan Conflict.  The Philippines released a six-year national security policy on Tuesday.  The National Security Policy document highlights the U.S.-China rivalry as a major driving force in creating a “more tense geopolitical landscape,” as well as the potential for the Taiwan Strait to become the “flashpoint in the region.”  The document says Manila is concerned about how these issues will impact its economic stability, regional refugee flows, and the welfare of Filipinos overseas.  A conflict over Taiwan is of particular concern given the island’s geographical proximity to the Philippines and the 150,000 Filipinos in Taiwan.  The policy also notes that the South China Sea remains a “primary national security interest,” saying that rival claims “pose strategic challenges” to Philippine sovereignty and that the waterway is key to future energy and food security.   Reuters

China’s Economic Crisis Worsens.  China’s economy is showing further signs of distress linked to its real estate sector.  Chinese developers are suffering mounting debts as housing prices fall.  In the latest sign of turmoil, Chinese trust firm Zhongrong International Trust Co., which has significant real estate exposure, missed payments on several investment products last month.  There is concern that debt pressures in the property sector will spread to financial firms.  The slump in the property market, which traditionally accounts for a quarter of China’s economy, is also occurring amid high youth unemployment and follows the shock from three years of strict anti-Covid measures.  Experts are calling for stronger fiscal support and easing measures to address the crisis.  Reuters

Middle East & Northern Africa

U.S. Calls on Iran to Stop Selling Drones to Russia.  The U.S. is reportedly pushing Iran to stop selling drones and drone parts to Russia.  Russia has used Iranian drones in its invasion of Ukraine.  Sources said the request comes amid negotiations between Washington and Tehran on a potential deal that would include a prisoner exchange and the release of frozen Iranian assets in South Korea.  The development also comes amid wider efforts to ease nuclear tensions.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. will welcome any steps by Iran to reduce its “growing nuclear threat.”   Reuters Financial Times

Two Dead After Israeli Raid in West Bank.  Israeli forces killed two Palestinians, including a 16-year-old boy, during a raid near Jericho in the occupied West Bank.  Palestinian officials confirmed the deaths, and Israeli officials said that the two were killed after they opened fire at forces operating in the Aqabat Jabr refugee camp near Jericho.  The violence came as Israeli authorities released Jewish settler Yehiel Indore from detention and placed him under house arrest.  Indore is accused of involvement in the killing of a 19-year-old Palestinian earlier this month.  Separately, Israeli authorities also said they detected a failed rocket launch in the northern West Bank.  Hamas claimed responsibility for the attempted launch and said they were targeting a West Bank settlement.  Associated Press

Libyan Armed Factions Pause Fighting in Tripoli.  Rival factions in the Libyan capital Tripoli reportedly paused hostilities on Tuesday.  Violence began when the Special Deterrence Force detained a commander of the 444 Brigade.  Fighting stopped after the Special Deterrence Force agreed to hand over the commander to a third armed faction, the Stabilization Support Apparatus, which was not involved in the clashes.  Local health officials said the fighting killed at least 27 people and injured over 100, without specifying whether casualties were civilians or combatants.  Reuters

Sub-Saharan Africa

At Least 17 Niger Soldiers Killed in Attack Near Mali Border.  Niger’s Defense Ministry says that an attack near the border with Mali has killed at least 17 Nigerien soldiers and wounded 20 more.  The army said that the soldiers had been evacuated and that 100 assailants had been “neutralized” while retreating. The border region between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso has, over the last decade, become a hotbed of militant activity linked to Islamic insurgent groups.  Analysts say that Niger’s recent coup, and the junta’s decision to sever ties with France will make it more difficult for the country’s military to remain capable of dealing with incidents like the latest attack.  Al Jazeera

Niger Junta Says Open to Talks as Russia and U.S. Emphasize Peace.  The military leaders of Niger’s junta, who on July 26th deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in a coup, say they are willing to start talks as the US and Russia continue to call for peace. After a visit with Chad’s President Mahamat Deby, newly appointed Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine said "we are in a process of transition. We have explained the ins and outs, reiterated our willingness to remain open and to talk to all parties, but we have insisted on the need for the country to be independent." Heads of the West African bloc ECOWAS are set to meet in Ghana on Thursday and Friday to debate whether intervention is needed to restore Niger’s democratically elected leader. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday stressed the “space for diplomacy” in resolving the crisis, while Russian President Vladimir Putin also emphasized the need for a "peaceful political and diplomatic" solution in a phone conversation with Mali’s interim leader.   Reuters Deutsche Welle

Leaders of Mali and Russia Discuss Niger.  Mali’s military chief Assimi Goita and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone about the situation in Niger, where coup leaders have taken over the elected democratic government and ousted pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum. On social media, Goita said that Putin ``stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution of the situation for a more stable Sahel.” Moscow says the call was initiated by Mali, and in a statement said that “the parties specifically focused on the current situation in the Sahara-Sahel region and emphasized, in particular, the importance of settling the situation in the Republic of Niger solely through peaceful political and diplomatic means.” Calls for peace in the Sahel by Putin come amid attempts by Moscow to increase Russian influence in West Africa and as Russia’s Wagner Group continues operating in the region.  Al Jazeera CNN 

UN Cautions Sudan 'Spiraling Out of Control' as 1 Million Flee War.  The UN warned on Tuesday that the number of refugees fleeing the four-month-old conflict in Sudan to neighboring countries has reached 1 million, and those left inside are without healthcare, and nearly out of food. In a joint statement, U.N. agencies cautioned that "time is running out for farmers to plant the crops that will feed them and their neighbors. Medical supplies are scarce. The situation is spiraling out of control." The latest data by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) shows that 1,017,449 people have left Sudan, and there are still an estimated 3,433,025 displaced individuals within the embattled country. Elizabeth Throssell, spokeswoman for the High Commissioner for Human Rights, estimates that more than 4,000 have been killed in the war, including 435 children, though "the remains of many of those killed have not been collected, identified or buried." Humanitarian organizations are struggling to provide aid due to bureaucratic hurdles, looting, and insecurity, and peace talks mediated by the US and Saudi Arabia have slowed. Reuters Deutsche Welle  

Cyber & Tech

Zoom Clarifies No Customer Content Used To Train AI Data Models.  The Zoom video-conferencing platform has again revised its term of service (TOS) to clarify that it does not use any customer content – audio, video, chat, or other elements – to train Zoom or third-party AI models.  Zoom’s action was taken in the face of broad criticism from privacy advocates due to its initial announcement that it would “first obtain customers’ consent” before using customer data in AI model training.  Some critics said that the original TOS could violate provisions of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation for its method of obtaining user consent.  Zoom has introduced two generative AI features that create automated meeting summaries and AI-powered chat composition.  Zoom explained that its AI features are enabled by account owners or administrators; meeting participants are notified through the user interface that AI technology is being used.  The Record

‘NoName’ Hackers Lead Pro-Russian Threat Actors in Attacks Launched in 2023.  The NoName hacktivist group has become one of the most prolific pro-Russian threat actors alongside Anonymous Sudan and Killnet.  Researchers with the Radware cybersecurity firm noted that the three groups share an anti-Ukraine, anti-West agenda.  But according to the researchers, NoName sets itself apart in “the number of attacks that their doing; it's much bigger than Anonymous Sudan or even Killnet.”  NoName’s steady stream of persistent attacks, researchers said, demonstrates the effectiveness of the gang’s crowdsourced "DDoSia'' platform, which provides crypto payouts to otherwise ordinary citizens enlisted in the group’s botnet attacks out of shared animosity toward Ukraine and its Western supporters.  Radware’s research shows that NoName dominated the pro-Russian hacktivist landscape in the first half of 2023 with 1174 attacks distributed over 32 Western nations.  Of 15 hacktivist groups identified by Radware, NoName is responsible for more than 31 percent of attacks launched.  The group also has become more selective in its distributed-denial-of-service attacks, focusing more on critical infrastructure in transportation and finance as well as government entities.  In recent weeks, NoName has knocked six Italian banks offline and has disrupted a dozen Ukrainian bank website infrastructure systems in a separate four-day campaign.  Since May, the group also has claimed responsibility for targeting critical infrastructure in Poland, Denmark, Lithuania, and the French parliament, as well as Switzerland’s financial and aviation sectors.  Cybernews

Indo-Pacific Partners Use Satellite-Enabled Maritime System to Monitor Suspect Shipping. A little-known system to monitor shipping and fishing operations in the Pacific and Indian oceans has played a special role in detecting possible illegal fishing by Chinese fleets.  The Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative (IPMDA), which was launched at the second summit of ‘Quad’ nations (U.S., Australia, India, and Japan) in May 2022, uses commercial near-real-time satellite data to keep governments across the region informed of maritime activity near coastal waters, allowing more effective use of limited naval and coast guard resources.  At a meeting of Quad leaders this May it was noted that the IPMDA already was providing data to governments in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.  The system is expected to expand to the Indian Ocean in coming months.  Although China was not mentioned explicitly, the summit participants pointed to the system’s value in counteracting illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing.  At a June security meeting, U.S. and allied military commanders underscored the IPMDA’s potential strategic importance in sharing maritime data through “fusion centers” in India, Singapore, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands.  Experts from China take a different view of the system, claiming that the IPMDA is designed to raise doubts about Chinese maritime operations, especially fishing.  Hu Bo, the director of Center for Maritime Strategy Studies of Beijing University, predicts that the program will expand to target Chinese coast guard and navy ships.  Economist

Saudi Arabia, UAE Acquire Advanced Nvidia Chips in Bulk To Fuel National Projects.  Technology research centers in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are purchasing thousands of advanced Nvidia chips specialized for AI applications.  Sources with insights into the chip acquisitions report that Saudi Arabia has obtained at least 3,000 Nvidia H100 chips, which the company describes as “the world’s first computer [chip] designed for generative AI.”  The UAE, for its part, has arranged to buy thousands of Nvidia chips as it plans follow-on projects to its development of “Falcon,” an open-source large language model, at the state-owned Technology Innovation Institute in Abu Dhabi.  An observer commented that the UAE has decided to “own and control its own computational power and talent, have their own platforms and not be dependent on the Chinese or the Americans.”  Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) will receive 3,000 of Nvidia’s specialized chips, worth about $120 million, by the end of 2023.  KAUST’s Shaheen III supercomputer will become operational this year operating on 700 Grace Hoppers, Nvidia’s superchips that are designed for cutting-edge AI applications.   The UAE’s Falcon AI model, which is now freely available online, was trained using 384 A100 chips earlier this year.  The country plans to use the new batch of Nvidia chips to prepare additional AI applications and cloud services.  Financial Times

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