10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, September 5, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Consulate in Mexican Border Town Orders Employees to ‘Shelter in Place' Due to Gun Violence. The American Consulate in the Mexican border town of Matamoros announced Monday that its staff were under a shelter in place order “due to gun violence occurring in the city.” The alert was triggered by a shootout involving Mexican marines in which four people were reportedly killed. The Tamaulipas state communications office reported that the shooting happened during operations related to a kidnapping investigation. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City did not respond to requests for a comment on the incident. Matamoros, located alongside the Texan city of Brownsville, has experienced increased gun violence in recent years mostly connected to drug trafficking and cartel conflicts. Two American citizens were killed in Matamoros this year when a drug syndicate kidnapped four people. Associated Press Reuters
Incidents of Chinese Nationals Accessing U.S. Bases, Sensitive Installations Fuel Espionage Concerns. Chinese nationals, often posing as tourists, have reportedly accessed military bases and other sensitive locations in the U.S. as many as 100 times in recent years, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Officials say the “gate-crashing” incidents, which have ranged from scuba divers in Florida approaching waters near a rocket-launch site to Chinese citizens wandering into a New Mexico missile range, may be a possible “espionage threat” designed to test security procedures at American federal sites, such as military installations. Officials cited in the report said trespassers are usually Chinese nationals coerced into service by the government who must report back to Beijing. The incidents, compounded with intensifying US-China tensions, have sparked concerns that Beijing is engaged in non-traditional methods of gathering intel on American territory. Representative Jason Crow said Congress may consider passing legislation on the matter because many such incidents are not properly addressed since trespassing laws are state and local, not federal. Officials from the Department of Homeland Security and the White House declined to comment. The Pentagon responded widely to the problem, saying it has conducted several base security reviews in recent years. The Chinese Embassy in Washington denounced the accusations, with a spokesperson saying that “the relevant claims are purely ill-intentioned fabrications.” Wall Street Journal
Cuba Finds Human Trafficking Ring, Forcing Cubans to Fight for Moscow in Ukraine.
The Cuban foreign ministry said Monday that it discovered a human trafficking network pressuring its citizens to join Russia in the fight against Ukraine. Cuban officials are reportedly working to "neutralize and dismantle" the ring. Cuba’s statement did not reveal many details but said that the trafficking network was operating not only within the Caribbean nation but also in Russia, targeting both “Cuban citizens living [in Russia], and even some from Cuba." The Kremlin has yet to comment on the matter. Last year, Moscow announced its plan to expand its armed forces by more than 30%, to 1.5 million combat soldiers. In May, a newspaper in the city of Ryazan reported that multiple Cuban nationals had signed contracts with Russia's army and had been taken to the front lines in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship. It is unclear whether that report was linked to the Cuban government’s statement. Reuters Al Jazeera
Western Europe
EU Sees Most Asylum Requests Since 2016. The EU Agency for Asylum (EUAA) said it received 519,000 asylum requests in the first half of 2023, marking the bloc’s highest number of asylum requests since 2016, when a large number of Syrians fled their country’s civil war. Syrian continue to make up the majority of asylum seekers, with 67,000 applications made between January and June. The next main nationalities seeking asylum include people from Venezuela, Turkey, Colombia, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Ukrainian refugees were not included in the count. EUAA noted that there has been an increase in Russian and Iranian nationals granted protection compared to previous years. Deutsche Welle
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Claims to Reclaim More Territory as Zelensky Visits Front Lines. Ukraine claimed Monday that its soldiers had retaken more ground on the eastern front and were making progress in the south with its counteroffensive against Russia’s armed forces, while President Volodymyr Zelensky visited front-line zones. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that in the last week Ukrainian troops had regained around 1.16 square miles of territory around the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russia’s Wagner group captured in May after months of intense conflict. She added that since the counteroffensive began in June, Ukraine has regained around 47 square km of land around Bakhmut. Maliar also claimed unspecified "success" towards the settlements of Novodanylivka and Novoprokopivka in Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, Zelensky has been visiting troops in the eastern Donetsk and southern Zaporizhzhia regions. Videos posted on the Ukrainian presidential website showed him presenting medals to soldiers and thanking medics at a field hospital on the southern front. In his nightly video address, he said that Ukraine’s military leadership will take feedback from troops on the ground seriously, saying that "everything that our fighters talked about will be put to participants in meetings of the command, especially regarding electronic warfare.” Reuters
Zelensky Replaces Ukraine’s Defense Minister. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky dismissed defense minister Oleksii Reznikov on Monday to make way for “new approaches” to the war. Reznikov submitted his resignation Monday. Reznikov served as defense minister since November 2021. His replacement comes in the wake of a number of corruption scandals involving the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Zelensky nominated Rustem Umerov, the former people’s deputy of Ukraine, to become the next defense minister and said he expects parliamentary support. The reshuffle comes at a critical point in the war as Ukraine continues to pursue its counteroffensive in the south, seeks the training and deployment of F-16s, and continues to request additional equipment from Western allies. CNN New York Times
Russia Strikes Danube Ports, Ukraine Says Romanian Territory Hit. Ukraine said Monday that Russian drones exploded within Romanian territory, a NATO member, during an air strike on a Ukrainian port on the opposite bank of the Danube River. Since Russia left the Black Sea Grain deal, it has repeatedly struck Ukrainian river ports that lie across the Danube river from Romania. These reported strikes were launched hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin was scheduled to discuss reviving the grain deal with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Regarding these reports, the Romanian Ministry of Defense said it “categorically denies” that stray munitions fell into Romania and that the Russian attack did not “generate direct military threats on Romanian national territory or waters.” Reuters
New Photo of Missing Russian General Posted on Social Media. A photo of Russian General Sergei Surovikin was published on social media Monday by Ksenia Sobchak, a well-known Russian media personality. Sobchak wrote in her caption of the picture that “General Sergei Surovikin is out. Alive, healthy, at home, with his family, in Moscow. Photo taken today”. Surovikin had not been seen in public since the uprising by the Wagner Group in June. Various media outlets had reported that Surovikin had fallen out of favor with the Kremlin and was being investigated for possible complicity. Surovikin earned the nickname “General Armageddon” during Russia’s intervention in Syria’s civil war and was briefly in charge of the war effort in Ukraine before the role was transferred to Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. Reuters
Erdogan Says Black Sea Grain Deal Can Be Renewed Soon. After talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said that it would soon be possible to revive the Black Sea Grain Deal. Russia abandoned the deal in July saying that it did not facilitate its own food and fertilizer exports. Putin has said that Russia could return to the deal if the West stopped restricting Russian agricultural exports from reaching global markets. Putin additionally said that claims from the West that Russia’s departure from the deal stoked a food crisis were incorrect as prices did not rise on Russia’s exit. Erdogan added that Russian expectations for the deal are well-known and that Turkey has worked with the UN to address these demands. He also said that Ukraine should “soften its approaches” for progress. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba later said Kyiv will not “continue to be hostages to Russian blackmail” but that it will take note of Erdogan’s talks with Putin. Reuters
Russia Honors First Crew to Use Kinzhal Hypersonic Missiles in Ukraine. Russia presented state awards to the first Russian crew that used hypersonic, air-launched Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine. Russia’s TASS state news agency reported that the crew launched the missiles from Su-34 aircraft but did not say when or where they were used in Ukraine. The Russian defense ministry previously said in March that the missiles were used to destroy Ukrainian targets. Moscow has not said much else about the missiles, though Ukraine says Russian forces use them regularly. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Philippine, American Navies Perform Joint Sail in South China Sea. The Philippine military said Monday that its navy joined US vessels for a joint sail through areas of the South China Sea within the nation's exclusive economic zone. The Armed Forces of the Philippines' Western Command said that this was the first time in which Manila and Washington have conducted a joint sail in waters west of Palawan Island. During the sail, vessels practiced maneuvering near other ships. The U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided missile-destroyer USS Ralph Johnson and the Philippine Navy's guided-missile frigate BRP Jose Rizal took part. The Western Command said that "this event aims to provide an opportunity for the Philippine Navy and the US Indo-Pacific Navy to test and refine existing maritime doctrine." Reuters
U.S. Holding First Major Naval Exercises in Yellow Sea in Decade. The U.S. Navy is reportedly holding large-scale exercises in the Yellow Sea near northern China for the first time in over 10 years. South Korean media and officials report that a U.S. amphibious ready group, led by the USS America, and the Canadian frigate HMCS Vancouver will hold joint amphibious drills with the South Korean military to mark the 70th anniversary of the alliance between Washington and Seoul. The last major U.S. drills in the Yellow Sea were the USS George Washington carrier group joint exercises in 2013. The U.S. has held smaller drills in the area since then, including an Air Force drill last week that included B-1B bombers as part of the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises. South China Morning Post
China’s Xi Not Attending G20 Summit. China’s foreign ministry indicated on Monday that President Xi Jinping will not attend the G20 summit in India and confirmed that Premier Li Qiang will represent Beijing at the meeting. Reuters reported about Xi’s potential absence last week, citing Indian diplomats. This will be the first time Xi will miss the G20 Summit as even during the COVID pandemic, he attended via video link. Russian President Vladimir Putin will also skip the summit and will be represented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Xi’s absence will come amid heightened tensions between China and India over their disputed border and India’s growing ties with the United States. It has also extinguished hopes that U.S. President Joe Biden and Xi might meet at the summit to help stabilize tenuous relations between the U.S. and China. CNN South China Morning Post
Chinese Security Agency Says Biden-Xi Meeting Hinges on U.S. ‘Sincerity.’ China’s Ministry of State Security, the country’s top security agency, said Monday that a potential meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco later this year depends on the U.S. “showing sufficient sincerity” towards bilateral relations. The ministry’s comments came after US President Joe Biden expressed disappointment that Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be present at the upcoming G20 meeting but said that he is still going to “get to see him.” Biden did not elaborate on what he meant, but the next likely opportunity for the two leaders to meet is at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco at the end of the year. Several top U.S. officials have visited China in recent months in a bid to manage relations. Reuters
Kim Jong Un to Visit Russia. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will reportedly visit Russia this month to meet with President Vladimir Putin for talks regarding a potential arms deal that would have Pyongyang send weapons to Moscow. Officials say that Putin aims to secure Kim’s agreement to send artillery shells and antitank missiles, while Kim seeks both food aid as well as advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines. The exact location of the meeting is currently unknown, but sources informed the New York Times that Kim is likely to travel from Pyongyang to Russia’s Pacific coast city of Vladivostok. Both leaders will reportedly be at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum, which is scheduled from September 10th to the 13th. The White House cautioned on Wednesday that Kim and Putin had exchanged letters speaking about a possible arms agreement and that negotiations were "actively advancing.” The White House also noted recent Russian military delegations to Pyongyang, including one led by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned that the US would retaliate with sanctions over any weapons deal. New York Times Reuters BBC
Russia Proposed Naval Drills With North Korea, China. South Korea's National Intelligence Service says Russia has likely proposed three-way naval exercises with North Korea and China. South Korean lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum said the director of the service, Kim Kyou-hyun, discussed the prospect of the exercises in a closed-door briefing and said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely proposed the trilateral drills when visiting Pyongyang in July. The briefing reportedly came shortly after Russia’s Ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, told Russian media that it “seems appropriate” to include North Korea in any joint military drills between Russia and China. Matsegora stopped short of saying he was aware of any preparations to hold such exercises. Associated Press Bloomberg Financial Times
Malaysia Tells ASEAN that Strong Measures are Needed for Myanmar. Malaysia on Monday called on its partners in ASEAN to implement stronger measures against Myanmar’s military junta. Malaysia argued that the junta, which seized power over two years ago, has created “obstacles” that are blocking a peace plan for the country. The blunt call from Malaysia comes as Southeast Asian diplomats meet to review the bloc’s peace plan for Myanmar. Reuters
Thailand Swears in a New Prime Minister and Cabinet. Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn swore in a new Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin, and new cabinet members under a new coalition government on Monday. The new coalition government contains 11 parties and is led by Srettha’s Pheu Thai party. Srettha was also named Thailand’s finance minister on Saturday. In his televised address after being sworn in, Srettha promised that his administration would focus on the needs of the Thai people. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Western Officials to Warn UAE Over Dual-Use Equipment Transfers to Russia. U.S., British and E.U. officials are reportedly planning to jointly call on the UAE to cease shipments of goods to Russia that could potentially be used in its war in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reports that Western officials are visiting the UAE from Monday to address the flow of dual-use products, like computer chips and electronic components, into Russia. A UAE official said the country strictly follows and monitors compliance with UN sanctions and other measures imposed against Russia, adding that the UAE remains in close dialogue with international partners about the Ukraine war. The UAE, which has maintained ties with Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, has not formally joined sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K. and E.U. but has said it does not want to be a hub for sanctions evasion by Western companies. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Sub Saharan Africa
Gabon Coup Leader Sworn in as Interim President. Gabon’s General Brice Oligui Nguema, the leader of the coup that deposed President Ali Bongo, was sworn in as interim president by a panel of constitutional court judges on Monday in a televised ceremony that depicted the military as liberators of a subjugated society. Gabon’s coup leaders seized power on August 30 after Bongo won a third term in an election seen by opposition groups as fraudulent. Despite international condemnation, Nguema and other coup leaders have seen widespread support in Gabon. Nguema described the mutiny, which terminated the Bongo family's 56-year grip on power in the oil-rich nation, as a manifestation of God’s will. He pledged to free political prisoners, introduce a new constitution, and “return power to civilians by organizing new elections that will be free, transparent, credible and peaceful." Reuters Wall Street Journal
Niger Reopens Airspace Following Coup. Niger’s transport ministry spokesperson announced on Monday that the country’s military leaders have reopened Nigerien airspace to commercial flights. The airspace has been closed since the military junta seized power in a coup on August 6. The closure has forced many commercial airline companies to suspend flights in Africa or take longer routes, as many flight paths would normally pass over Niger. The junta said it closed Niger’s airspace due to the potential threat of military intervention but has not provided a reason for lifting the ban. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Huawei’s New Smartphone Shows China’s Progress in Chip Development. Huawei Technologies has released a new smartphone, Mate 60 Pro, which is powered by a new Kirin 9000s chip, an advanced 7-nanometer processor, made by China’s top chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC). Analysis firm TechInsights reports that the processor is the first to use SMIC’s most advanced 7-nanometer technology. Buyers of the Mate 60 Pro say that the phone is capable of download speeds exceeding those of top 5G phones. The performance of the phone and processor suggests that China is making progress in developing its domestic chip industry, despite Western restrictions on the export of semiconductors and chip-making technology to China. Research firms have said Huawei is planning to return to the 5G smartphone industry by the end of the year with advances it has made in developing its own semiconductor design tools with SMIC. Bloomberg Reuters
China Boosting Low-Key Recruitment of Overseas Scientists. China is accelerating its less overt efforts to recruit overseas talent to improve its science and technology self-reliance, according to a new report from South China Morning Post. Due to increased wariness in the U.S. about Chinese scientific and technological development, cross-border academic exchanges are more difficult, which has made China double down on efforts to bring foreign-trained scientists of Chinese descent back to China. While Beijing has relied on talent agencies launched under the Thousand Talents Plan (TTP) in 2008, these government-bound recruitment operations have largely been rebranded in recent years to be more low-key due to scrutiny of academics and scientists suspected of links to China. This was most seen in the China Initiative launched by the Trump administration, which openly investigated around 150 academic scientists before being ended in February 2022. Headhunting activities now include stronger confidentiality measures and more widely target talent across different ages and years of experience for various levels of government in China. They also are relying more on personal connections for recruitment of most senior researchers. Some foreign scientists still remain hesitant to join due to concerns over which programs could be trusted to follow through on incentives, new requirements in the Chinese system, and the prospect of losing connections with the U.S. South China Morning Post
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