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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, September 26, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES:

Philippines Stands Firm Against Beijing In South China Sea Territorial Dispute.  Philippine coastguard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said today that his country “will not back down” as China attempts to block Filipino fishermen from the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Tarriela’s comments to CNN Philippines come a day after what he called a “special operation” in which Manila severed a floating 980-foot barrier installed by Beijing at the disputed shoal.  Tarriela said four Chinese vessels in the area during the operation were “not that aggressive” and that China’s coastguard removed remnants of the severed barrier.  However, Tarriela warned, China could respond with future aggressive acts and may attempt to return the barrier.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters, “China firmly upholds sovereignty and maritime rights off Huangyan Island, and we advise the Philippines side not to provoke and cause trouble.”  Reuters

Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Seen in Video Meeting After Ukraine Claims it Killed Him.  Russia’s defense ministry released videos and photographs showing Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, attending a video conference on Tuesday, a day after Ukraine’s military said it killed him in an attack on the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea.  The footage did not show Sokolov speaking in the meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other top Russian military leaders.  Several news outlets said they could not immediately verify when or where the footage and photographs were taken.  Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said it is “clarifying the information.”  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov earlier declined to comment on Ukraine’s claim that it killed Sokolov, referring questions on the matter to the defense ministry.  NBC News Reuters

China, Korean, and Japanese Officials Meet in Seoul.  South Korea on Tuesday hosted senior diplomats from Japan and China for a three-way gathering aimed at restarting trilateral dialogue between the East Asian neighbors and assuaging Beijing’s concerns about Seoul and Tokyo’s ties with the U.S.  It was their first trilateral summit since 2019.  South Korea’s foreign ministry said the three countries agreed to hold a meeting between their leaders at the “earliest convenient time,” though specific dates are still under discussion.  The three sides also agreed to have their foreign ministers meet “in a couple of months.”  A senior government official in South Korea said that China has been motivated to seek three-way collaboration and assemble meetings since 2017, when ties between Beijing and Seoul became strained over the deployment of an American THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea.  Analysts say China is seeking to expand communications with its East Asian neighbors on defense and security issues, as well as to counter U.S. influence.  Tokyo and Seoul are also interested in securing Beijing’s support in limiting North Korea’s nuclear development.  South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Chung Byung-won, China’s Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Nong Rong, and Japanese Senior Deputy Foreign Minister Takehiro Funakoshi participated in Tuesday’s meeting.  Reuters Nikkei Asia Al Jazeera South China Morning Post

U.S., India Co-Host Indo-Pacific Army Chief Summit.  The U.S. and India are co-hosting the Indo-Pacific Army Chiefs Conference in New Delhi to strengthen military diplomacy and collaboration among the 30 participating countries.  Indian Army chief General Manoj Pande held a joint press conference with U.S. Army chief General Randy George on Tuesday, reaffirming their countries’ commitment to maintaining a free Indo-Pacific.  Neither official explicitly mentioned China in their remarks, though Pande made veiled references to Beijing’s military activities in the region, saying that “we are witnessing manifestations of interstate contestations and competition” and that some are using “artificially expanded islands to acquire real estate and establish military bases.”  He also noted security and humanitarian concerns on land, in an apparent reference to India and China’s disputed border in the Himalayan region.  George responded to a question on Chinese expansion by saying it is “why we are out here” and affirming that the region is a priority for the U.S.  Associated Press Nikkei Asia 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Suffers Greatly from Recent Ukrainian Strikes.  The UK’s Defense Ministry said that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has suffered “more damaging” and “more coordinated” attacks from Ukraine in recent days than ever before in the war, resulting in extensive physical damage that is “severe but localized.”  The ministry said that Ukraine’s assaults on the fleet will not prevent it from conducting its cruise missile strikes and local security patrols.  However, its capacity to implement its blockade of Kyiv’s ports and maintain wide regional security patrols has been diminished. The repeated, significant strikes on Sevastopol will also likely affect the fleet’s ability to perform routine maintenance and protect its assets in port. The ministry added that fighting in the Black Sea is pushing Russia into a “reactive posture” and showing Ukraine’s ability to challenge Moscow’s strategic power projection in the region. UK Ministry of Defense X

Ukraine Says Drone Strike Destroys $7 Million of Russian Equipment.  Ukraine says drones launched by the “Achilles” UAV strike company of the 92nd separate assault brigade destroyed two Russian tanks and a D-30 Soviet howitzer worth over $7 million on Monday night.  Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology Development and Minister of Digital Transformation, reported that the company conducted the attack with the help of a secret Ukrainian drone.  He added that “more technologies and surprises for the Russians are coming.”  Kyiv Post

Russian Drone Attacks Hit Ukrainian Ports on Danube River.  Russian drone attacks hit Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Danube River in the Odesa region overnight, injuring two truck drivers.  Oleh Kiper, the head of Odesa’s military administration, said the attacks damaged a crossing point, warehouses and 30 trucks in the region’s Izmail district.  He also said Ukrainian air defenses downed most drones launched in the attack.  The Border Guard Service of Ukraine and the Romanian Border Patrol said the Orlivka-Isaccea ferry crossing between Romania and Ukraine was suspended Tuesday morning after the attack.  CNN

Russian Missiles Strike Kryvyi Rih, Drones Hit Cherkasy.  Ukraine reports that Russia launched Iranian-made Shahed drones on the Cherkasy region on Tuesday.  Regional officials said that while air defenses shot down four drones, an infrastructure object was hit in the attack.  Meanwhile, officials said a Russian missile strike hit a local enterprise in the southern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih.  There were no reports of casualties.  Ukrinform The Guardian

Russian Military Reports Downing of Eleven Ukrainian Drones.  Russian military officials claimed that Russian air defenses downed at least 11 Ukrainian drones over the Kursk and Belgorod region on Monday.  The Russian defense ministry states that the attack was repelled but did not provide details on any damage.  Kyiv did not comment and has not claimed responsibility for such attacks, but Ukrainian officials have previously stated that similar drone strikes in areas along the Russian border and the subsequent destruction of Russian military infrastructure would aid counteroffensive efforts.  Reuters

Russia Condemns Arrival of Abrams Tanks in Ukraine.  Russia denounced the arrival of M1 Abrams tanks from the U.S. in Ukraine on Tuesday.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the tanks will “in no way” impact the outcome of the war and asserted “there is no panacea and one kind of weapon” that can change the battlefield situation.  He noted that the tanks are “serious weapons” but maintained that they will also “burn” like Ukraine’s other weapons.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the first Abrams tanks are “already in Ukraine” and that they will be a “significant reinforcement” to the Ukrainian military.  The tanks offer unique technical advantages to Ukraine, especially compared to older tank models it has received from Western allies.  The arrival of the tanks is also seen as a needed morale boost for Ukrainian troops.  However, experts caution that the tanks will be harder to maintain and service.  Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service, has also warned that the tanks will not last long if they are not used in a “tailored way” for “specific, well-crafted operations” in a combined arms approach.  Ukrinform Washington Post Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s Kuleba Says Bipartisan U.S. Support Remains Unchanged.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent trip to the U.S. was “extremely successful” and resulted in “new agreements” on both new weapons for Ukraine and joint weapons production between U.S. and Ukrainian companies.  Kuleba added that U.S. officials reiterated at all meetings with Zelensky and his delegation that Washington will maintain support for Kyiv “for as long as it takes.”  Kuleba also said that U.S. bipartisan support for Ukraine remains unchanged “despite some apocalyptic comments made by some commentators.”  Ukrinform

German Foreign Minister Vows Continued Military Aid To Ukraine, Sees Increased International Support.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told CNN on Monday that the German people continue to support Ukraine despite domestic economic troubles.  Asked whether German support is waning because of economic concerns, Baerbock answered “no,” adding, “In these kind of times, you have to make the right decision to support Ukraine.” Germany is the second-largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, following the U.S.  Baerbock’s expression of support accompanied her announcement that Germany plans to halve funding for the integration of immigrants, including Ukrainians.  She also said she has seen a significant increase in international support for Ukraine. “I feel way more support, because many, many countries around the world see this is not only about Ukraine,” Baerbock said, adding, “If we allow one dictator to overrule all our rights, this will be the end of peaceful cooperation.”  CNN Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Ukraine Reports on Russian Hacking Trends in First Half of 2023.  The State Special Communications Service of Ukraine (SSSCIP) published a report on Monday analyzing how Russia’s cyber tactics have adapted in the first half of 2023. The report focuses on three areas: understanding Russian hackers’ motives, capabilities and target choices; anticipating the extent of cyber capacities that they may employ in the current and future geopolitical conflicts; and seeking new tools and methods to counter cyberattacks.  The report says enemy hackers showed an increased focus on Ukrainian law enforcement in the first half of 2023, targeting data such as evidence of Russian war crimes, materials for prosecution, and arrest warrants for suspected agents.  The report also mentioned that energy and media sectors also remain high priority targets for Russian hacker groups.  Additionally, the report noted that hackers repeatedly revisit prior targets that own and operate critical data as they already have knowledge of critical information such as network infrastructure, protection measures, and key personnel.  SSSCIP

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

NATO Innovation Fund Seeks To Stimulate Defense Technology Start-Up Firms.  NATO’s Innovation Fund (NIF), which totals just over $1 billion, was designed to promote defense start-up firms as part of the alliance’s effort to gain a technological edge and blunt competition from China.  Amid concerns that Western start-up companies lack the investments the Chinese defense sector receives from the Beijing government, the fund seeks to fill gaps that exist for companies working on military-related technology.  The lack of venture capital for “deep tech” enterprises is especially notable in Europe, NATO assistant secretary-general David van Weel said.  Consequently, the alliance wanted to step in with resources for companies “to avoid them having to turn to Chinese investors.”  Funding will focus on AI, space, and biotechnology, with some restrictions on weapons development.  Van Weel, whose responsibilities include emerging security challenges, noted that twenty-three NATO members have opted into the fund. Klaus Hommels, chair of the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF), said that “the biggest surprise to me was that the…mission of this topic has attracted a lot of people.  That wouldn’t have been the case five, six years back.”  The U.S. has decided against investing in the fund at present, although according to Fiona Murray, vice-chair of the NIF, the Pentagon is monitoring the venture and could back later funds.  The NIF was launched as venture capitalists – previously wary of the sector — have been attracted to defense technologies.  One explanation is that the war in Ukraine has changed perceptions.  In attracting companies, the NIF emphasizes putting technology into action and building relationships across defense ministries.   The fund has ruled out investing in start-ups that produce offensive weapons or venture firms that own such companies.  Financial Times

Taiwan Counters Chinese Disinformation Operations with Generative AI Tools.  Audrey Tang, Taiwan’s minister of digital affairs, told the Special Competitive Studies Project Summit in Washington last week that the country took the interruption in telecommunications services that occurred after Chinese vessels severed undersea cables in April as an opportunity to develop workarounds for future disruptions.  Some observers consider the April incident as another example of China attacking Taiwan’s physical and digital information channels, prompting the island to develop mitigation and recovery methods.  Tang explained that April disruption led the government to teach the population about microwave and satellite communications backups as well as options “about how to set up emergency communications when the bandwidth is limited.”   In the leadup to Taiwan’s presidential elections in January, Tang said the government and volunteers are preparing for China influence operations, including a group called Cofacts, which allows users to forward questionable content to a chatbot where editors review messages, enter them into a database, and inform users of their conclusions.  According to Tang, the Taiwan effort to combat China’s information operations is now being reinforced by generative AI tools, with applications “that can clarify such disinformation…adding back a context and things like that. So we're no longer outnumbered.”  DefenseOne

British Officials Make Case for Global Statement on AI Rogue Misuse Potential.  UK government officials are making stops around the world to build consensus for a joint statement on the potential abuse of AI by rogue actors in the leadup to a global AI Safety summit in November, hosted by Britain.  British officials have become increasing concerned about prospects for AI use to create bioweapons or for the technology itself to exceed human control.  A source with knowledge of preparations for the AI summit said its agenda will be developed to “warn about the risks of ‘frontier AI’, that’s what Downing Street is focusing on most right now.”  The government confirmed Monday that the summit would focus on possible misuse of AI to create bioweapons or to create more sophisticated cyberattacks.  A government statement said two areas in particular will receive attention at the summit:  “Misuse risks…where a bad actor is aided by new AI capabilities in biological or cyber-attacks, and loss of control risks that could emerge from advanced systems that we would seek to be aligned with our values and intentions.”  Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also wants the summit to focus on existential risks, rather than more immediate misuse of AI to create deepfake images or contribute to discriminatory or distorted decision-making.  The Guardian

Hacktivist Group Announces Platform for Privacy-Enhanced Applications.  One of the longest-lived hacktivist groups, the Cult of the Dead Cow (cDc), has announced plans to develop and deploy a privacy communication platform dedicated to defending human and civil rights.  Announced at last month’s DEFCON conference, the Veilid project will lead to a platform for software apps with built-in privacy protections.  Based on the premise that the Internet as it exists today is a “privacy nightmare,” Veilid aims to create alternatives to current social media platforms through a suite of open-source, serverless, peer-to-peer and mobile-first applications. With its emphasis on privacy, Veilid will enable developers to build applications with a dramatically different ethical basis than commercial models.  Katelyn “Medusfour” Bowden, the founder of the BADASS advocacy group and member of the Veilid Foundation, explained that the profit motive had to be removed from development of the project “because once you enter a profit motive into the equation, that’s when trust and safety falls apart. That’s when you start having to appease VCs or investors.”  Veilid will offer a variety of applications and projects a launch of its flagship tool, VeilidChat, in coming months.  Bowden noted the broad appeal of Veilid offerings, saying “we’re making hacktivism available to everyone. My mother can join our Discord (community) and present an idea and get involved.”  CyberScoop

Unknown Hacking Group Baits Ukrainian Military with Malware-Laced Drone Manuals.  Researchers at cybersecurity company Securonix report that Ukrainian military entities have been targeted by a phishing campaign using malware-laced files themed as “UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) service manuals.”  Researchers said the hacking campaign comes amid heightened use of drones in the Ukraine war. Ukraine's Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) attributed the campaign to a threat actor it monitors as UAC-0154.  The Hacker News

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

South Korea Stages Rare Military Parade Amid North Korean Threats.  South Korea held its first military parade in a decade on Tuesday in downtown Seoul to mark its Armed Forces Day, displaying an assortment of weapons from ballistic missiles and domestically-built tanks to fighter jets and drones in a show of force amid threats from North Korea.  South Korea’s Defense Ministry said that the parade featured thousands of soldiers, 300 American troops stationed in the country, reconnaissance drones, and sophisticated missile interceptors.  In a speech at Seoul Air Base, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol cautioned that a North Korean nuclear attack will be met by an “overwhelming response” from Washington and Seoul that will “end” the regime in Pyongyang.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Biden Pledges Aid, Expands Diplomatic Ties at Pacific Islands Summit.  President Joe Biden offered new economic aid and diplomatic recognition to Pacific Island nations at the second U.S.-hosted summit of the region’s leaders.  Biden pledged $200 million to support climate change response, economic growth, and efforts to counter illegal fishing in the Pacific Islands.  He also announced a new coast guard mission solely dedicated to collaborating and training with Pacific Island nations.  The U.S. also announced diplomatic recognition of the Cook Islands and Niue, which Biden said would enable stronger cooperation.  The group has also agreed to hold another summit in 2025 and engage every two years after.  Vanuatu Prime Minister Sato Kilman and Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, whose countries have strengthened military ties with China, did not attend the summit.  Though China was not directly mentioned in the public comments at the summit, the gathering comes amid heightened competition with Beijing in the region.  Analysts say the U.S. is most interested in ensuring military access to the strategic waters of the region.  Reuters South China Morning Post CNN White House

U.S., Kenya Agree on Defense Deal Ahead of Haiti Deployment.  The U.S. and Kenya signed a defense pact on Monday that gives Nairobi support and resources for security deployments as it is set to lead a multinational peacekeeping mission in Haiti to assist police in countering gang violence.  Kenyan Defense Minister Aden Duale and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met in Nairobi to sign the accord, which guides U.S.-Kenyan defense cooperation for the next five years.  Austin added that the U.S. will work with Congress to secure the $100 million in funds that it pledged for the Haiti mission at the U.N General Assembly.  Critics of Kenya’s leadership of the force have raised concerns over the country’s history of alleged human rights abuses in security operations and the potential language barrier between the English- and Swahili-speaking Kenyan deployment and the French- and Creole-speaking people of Haiti.  The U.S.-Kenyan defense deal also comes as the war against the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab extremist group in East Africa continues.  Associated Press Al Jazeera ABC News

Saudi Envoy to Palestinian Authority Visits West Bank.  Saudi Arabia’s first-ever ambassador to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, presented his credentials to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a first visit to the occupied West Bank on Tuesday.  The visit comes as the kingdom engages with Israel on normalizing ties, which Riyadh has said it will not do unless major progress is made towards the creation of a Palestinian state.  Al-Sudairi reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support of the creation of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital during his visit, but officials did not discuss details on other concessions Riyadh wants Israel to make to the Palestinians.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is focused on normalizing relations with other Arab states before addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Associated Press

Nagorno-Karabakh Fuel Depot Blast Kills 20, Injures Hundreds.  An explosion at a fuel depot in the Nagorno-Karabakh region killed more than 20 people and hospitalized nearly 300 others on Monday.  The explosion reportedly occurred as people were lining up at a gas station to refuel their cars as they were evacuating the region.  It is still not clear what caused the explosion near the main city of Khankendi, known as Stepankert by Armenians.  The Armenian health ministry said that it was sending helicopters to evacuate patients from the region’s strained hospitals. Azerbaijan also said it is sending medical supplies.  The Russian peacekeeping force in the region said that some of the wounded had been treated by their medics and some of the most gravely injured had been transferred to their hospitals.  This comes as thousands of ethnic Armenians are fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh following Azerbaijan’s seizure of the region last week.  Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has claimed that ethnic cleansing is “underway” in the region.  BBC New York Times

Bulgarian Armed Forces Seeks to Purchase $1.37 Billion Worth of Product from Stryker.  The Bulgarian Armed Forces are set to acquire $1.37 billion worth of Stryker combat vehicles following parliament’s approval of the purchase.  Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev announced the deal on September 22, though he did not say how many Stryker vehicles, which are made by General Dynamics Land Systems, will be delivered.  Tagarev said that the purchase will allow Bulgaria to merge three mechanized battalion battlegroups into a brigade and boost the country’s interoperability to “join all alliance initiatives intended for our defense.”  Defense News

Mexico Deploys 1,500 Security Forces to South to Combat Drug Cartels.  The Mexican government on Monday deployed over 1,500 security force personnel, including army, police, and National Guard units, to the southern region of Frontera Comalapa on Monday to counter drug cartels and “guarantee peace” in the area.  The deployment came days after a video on social media went viral purportedly showing a convoy of armed drug cartel members in Frontera Comalapa being cheered on by locals as they moved to "liberate" a settlement from a rival cartel.  Reuters could not independently confirm whether the video showed gang members, but some local reporters said the onlookers may have been forced to applaud.  Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador downplayed the footage, saying that the gang presence is “a matter very limited to a region and the National Guard is already being deployed." He also downplayed the rate of murders in Chiapas, though murders in the region bordering Guatemala since the start of the year have risen by 16% to 348 from 300 in the same period last year.  Reuters

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