10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, September 19, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Says Ukraine to Get M1 Tanks ‘Soon’. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday that the U.S. expects to send American M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine “soon.” Speaking at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Austin added that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making “steady forward progress” and is breaking through Russia’s defensive lines. He pressed other members of the contact group to continue sending military aid to Ukraine, highlighting the need for more air defense systems and saying that the U.S. will support Kyiv “for the long haul.” Ukraine’s new defense minister Rustem Umerov added that the contact group will further discuss Ukraine’s “urgent battlefield needs.” CNN
ASEAN Launches Joint Maritime Drills. ASEAN started its first joint maritime drills on Tuesday in Indonesia. While ASEAN has conducted drills with the U.S. and other partners, the ASEX 01-Natuna exercises are the first to be held by the bloc. Five warships from Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Singapore will sail from the island of Batam to an area near the Natuna Islands that faces the disrupted waters of the South China Sea. A support helicopter from Indonesia’s air force will also participate. The drills come amid heightened tensions and military activity in the region. The ASEAN exercises come after last week’s U.S.- and Indonesian-led Super Garuda Shield drills. China recently concluded drills in the western Pacific. And Taiwan reports that China continues to deploy military aircraft and naval vessels near the island. Nikkei Asia Reuters
Azerbaijan Launches Military Action Into Nagorno Karabakh. Azerbaijan has reportedly launched a military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in a move that Baku says is designed to expel supposed Armenian military formations there. Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said the operation is intended to “disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia’s armed forces from our territories, (and) neutralize their military infrastructure.” Baku added that it was only targeting military targets, not civilians, and that ethnic Armenians are free to “evacuate” through what it called humanitarian corridors, one of which leads to Armenia. Armenia, which claims that its military is not present in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, said that the situation on its border with Azerbaijan was stable. However, Ruben Vardanyan, a billionaire banker and former top official of Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian administration, claimed that Azerbaijan has launched artillery strikes in the region “targeting cities and civilians on a large scale.” This escalation comes a day after humanitarian supplies were delivered to Karabakh after Baku removed its sweeping restrictions on the Lachin corridor, the only road linking Armenia with the territory. Azerbaijan had alleged the route was being used for arms smuggling. Armenia’s foreign ministry had said on Monday that Azerbaijan’s diplomatic stance looked like it was preparing for some kind of military action. Reuters Bloomberg Politico Al Jazeera BBC
India & Canada Expel Diplomats Amid Ongoing Row. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canadian authorities were “actively pursuing” credible allegations linking Indian government agents to the murder of a Sikh leader, something India has rejected and called “absurd”. These accusations deal a serious blow to already deteriorating diplomatic ties between the two countries. Canada also expelled India’s top intelligence officer and New Delhi responded by giving a Canadian diplomat five days to leave the country. The Indian government said “the decision (to expel the diplomat) reflects the government of India's growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities”. Trudeau said in an emergency statement to the Canadian House of Commons that the killing of a Canadian citizen was “an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty”. He was referring to Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was shot outside a Sikh temple on June 18 in a Vancouver suburb, three years after being designated a “terrorist” by the New Delhi government. Reuters Washington Post
STORIES THAT MAY NOT BE ON YOUR RADAR:
Debris of Missing F-35 Fighter Jet Found. The U.S. military said that it found the debris of a missing F-35 fighter jet in South Carolina on Monday evening, a day after asking for public assistance in the search. Joint Base Charleston said debris was found two hours northeast of the base and thanked local, county, and state officials for support in the search. According to manufacturer Lockeed Martin, one of the jet’s main advantages is that it is nearly impossible to track on radar, which reportedly complicated the search for the missing plane. Associated Press Reuters
Putin to Meet Xi in Beijing in October. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in October for talks in Beijing. Putin will attend the third Belt and Road Forum. Nikolai Patrushev, a close ally of Putin and the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, confirmed the trip and said the two leaders’ talks in Beijing will be “thorough.” If Putin makes the visit, it will be his first known trip since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him over his alleged role in the deportation of children from Ukraine, which has kept him from attending other foreign events, such as the BRICS summit in South Africa. China has not condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and Moscow has reportedly imported millions of dollars-worth of military equipment and dual-use technologies from China since the start of the war. Reuters
China’s Former Foreign Minister Reportedly Removed Over Alleged Affair. Senior Chinese officials were told that former Foreign Minister Qin Gang was removed from his post for engaging in an extramarital affair that led to the birth of a child in the U.S. while he was serving as China’s ambassador to Washington. Qin was dismissed from his position as foreign minister in July after an unexplained disappearance from public view for the month prior. Sources say the officials were briefed about the findings of an internal Communist Party investigation into Qin that led to his ouster, saying that the formal reason for his dismissal was “lifestyle issues,” which is reportedly a common party euphemism for sexual misconduct. The identities of the woman and child were not disclosed to the officials. Sources said the investigation is continuing with Qin’s cooperation, focusing on whether the affair jeopardized China’s national security. Qin remains listed as one of China’s five state councilors. China’s Foreign Ministry and the State Council Information Office did not comment on reports of the affair. CNN Wall Street Journal
Moldova Calls for EU Membership Despite Russian Pressure. Moldova’s Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said on Tuesday that his country wants to join the EU. Speaking in a Politico interview, he asserted that Moldova’s membership ambitions are “not at all” dampened by the issue of Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region. While Popescu admitted that Transnistria has “massive negative effects” on Moldova’s security, economy, and border control capacity, he said the territory under the control of the government in Chisinau should be allowed to join the EU. He argued that while the bloc does not want a divided country, it would be worse to let countries be “at the mercy of geopolitical manipulation and separatist conflicts.” Moldovan officials will present a position paper to the European Commission this week to make its case for membership and lay out a roadmap for legislative requirements for accession talks. EU officials have been divided on admitting Moldova into the bloc, with some pointing to Cyprus as an example of a country becoming a member state while having a territorial issue, while others say that Moldova cannot join while Russian troops remain in Transnistria. Brussels will unveil its next enlargement plans next month. Politico
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
On the Battlefield
Ukraine says 3 Elite Russian Brigades ‘Crushed’ in the East. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukrainian ground troops, said Monday that his forces routed three elite Russian brigades in the eastern Donetsk region. Syrskyi said “some of the enemy’s best units” — including Russia’s 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade and the 31st and 83rd Air Assault Brigades — were “crushed and have completely lost their combat power.” His comment on the Russian units came as he hailed the liberation of two villages, Klishchiivka and Andriivka, as a tactical step towards recapturing the nearby city of Bakhmut. Syrskyi added that Ukrainian troops in the area have breached Russia’s defensive lines, though he noted that Russian forces continue to attempt counterattacks to retake lost positions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Monday that Ukrainian claims of advances in the area suggest Russian forces there have “likely suffered heavy losses,” adding that Russian troops south of Bakhmut were “likely battle-weary” from trying to hold onto Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Russia on Saturday denied losing control of Andriivka. Since the beginning of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in June, Ukraine has recaptured more than 19 square miles of territory around Bakhmut and 100 square miles of land in the south, according to Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar. Al Jazeera ISW
Ukraine Reports Russian Air Attacks Hit Lviv, Kherson, Kharkiv. A Russian drone strike hit three industrial warehouses in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Tuesday, causing a massive fire and killing at least one person. Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said the warehouses contained around 300 tons of humanitarian goods and humanitarian vehicles worth millions of dollars. The head of the Lviv regional military administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, said Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 15 Russian drones launched at Lviv, but three drones got through and hit the warehouses. Elsewhere, Ukrainian officials reported Russian shelling hit the southern city of Kherson, killing a policeman and wounding two civilians. Officials also said Russian missiles hit the northeastern city of Kharkiv, though there were no casualties reported. The Ukrainian air force claimed that Russian troops had fired one Iskander ballistic missile and 30 drones in assaults on the nation overnight, and that 27 of the drones were shot down. Russia, which has denied targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, did not comment on these attacks. Reuters Al Jazeera CNN
From Russia
Moscow Says Russia, China 'Close' on US, Ukraine Position. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday as part of his four-day visit to Moscow for security and foreign policy talks. Russia’s foreign ministry said that Russia and China’s top diplomats noted a “closeness” in their positions regarding U.S. "anti-Russian and anti-Chinese" acts. Wang and Lavrov also reportedly spoke about the Ukraine war and agreed that any resolution to the fighting must include Moscow. Wang also reportedly briefed Lavrov about his meeting with White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan in Malta, which occurred directly before Wang traveled to Russia. The U.S. had described that meeting as “candid and constructive.” Wang and Lavrov also reportedly discussed preparations for Russia’s involvement in the third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing next month, which Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend. Reuters BBC CNN
U.S. Charges Russian National for Sending Electronics to Russia. The U.S. Justice Department on Monday charged Hong- Kong based Russian national Maxim Marchenko for allegedly sending U.S.-sourced electronics with military applications to Russia. The U.S. government accused Marchenko and two co-conspirators of running a procurement ring to acquire dual-use, military grade microelectronics from an American company to send to Russia. Court documents allege that micro-displays smuggled by the procurement network could be used in both military equipment — such as night vision goggles, thermal optics, and military rifle scopes — and in civilian life — including for medical imaging, video games and digital cameras. The American company the network targeted ceased sending its technology to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The procurement network allegedly worked around the company’s prohibition and U.S. export controls by falsely claiming the electronics they were smuggling to Russia were being sent to China for scientific research. Marchenko, who was arrested on Monday on several conspiracy charges, smuggling goods from the U.S. and wire fraud, has not yet entered a formal plea, and his lawyer has declined to comment on the case. CNN Department of Justice Reuters
State of Play
Denmark, Norway Sending Tanks, Other Aid to Ukraine. Denmark’s defense ministry says it will send 45 more tanks to Ukraine, including 15 modernized T-72 tanks and 30 Leopard 1 tanks. The ministry said it is also sending additional arms, ammunition and mine-clearing equipment to Kyiv. The package is part of a joint initiative between Denmark, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic to provide military support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Norway is sending around 50 tracked cargo carriers to Ukraine. The vehicles can traverse terrain inaccessible for wheeled vehicles to deliver ammunition, food and water to Ukrainian troops on the battlefield. CNN
Germany Pledges Additional Aid to Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced Monday that Germany will provide an additional 400 million euros in aid to Ukraine. The aid will include additional munitions, including explosive ammunition, mortar ammunition and mine rockets. The package also includes clothing and electricity and heat generators to help Ukraine prepare for the approaching winter. The minister added that the aid will not include long-range Taurus missiles as the German government is still deciding whether or not to send them to Ukraine over concerns that the weapons could be used for attacks in Russian territory. CNN Reuters
Iran’s Raisi Denies Sending Drones to Russia. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Monday denied that Tehran has sent drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine. Speaking to media executives at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Raisi said that Iran is “against the war in Ukraine” and reiterated offers to mediate the war. He also challenged critics to produce “a document” proving that Tehran “gave weapons or drones to the Russians after the [start of] war.” Iran maintains that it only sent drones to Russia before its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The claim contrasts reports from American and European authorities that Iran has increased its transfer of drones to Russia since the start of the war, noting Russia’s use of Shahed drones in attacks on Ukraine. U.S. intelligence also says that Iran is helping Russia build a drone factory near Moscow. Raisi dismissed such reports and instead called on the U.S. to cease “interfering in the countries of the Persian Gulf and other regions in the world, and mind their own business.” Associated Press
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
Politico Previews UN General Assembly Forums on AI, Global Cyber Strategies. Artificial intelligence (AI) and all other things cyber will be on the agenda of a number of UN General Assembly gatherings and side events this week, with the State Department taking a leading role. U.S. cyber ambassador Nathaniel Fick will moderate a panel discussion Tuesday on the need for multinational cooperation in cyber issues generally, and particularly on new and emerging threats. The goals of the Fick-led meeting will be to gather commitments to an “action-oriented approach” in global responses to cyberattacks launched by nation-states, and to follow up on previous UN member state promises to improve worldwide cyber stability. In related activities, a UN program of action first proposed in 2022 will be taken up again. The action program features goals for improving information-sharing on cyber threats and creating norms and practices for responsible behavior by nation states in cyberspace. This theme is particularly relevant as global cyberattacks have increased from last year. It is not yet clear if the UN Cybercrime Treaty on which the latest preliminary negotiations ended earlier in September will be discussed at the State-sponsored panel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be joined by leading foreign affairs officials from Japan, Kenya, Singapore, Spain and Britain in a side event to discuss the potential AI technologies have to accelerate progress on the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. The meeting reportedly will hear from leading developers demonstrating practical AI applications as well as a discussion of the prospects and limitations of the technology. Politico
Elon Musk Talks with Netanyahu. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu began his trip to the U.S. with a meeting with Elon Musk in California on technology and artificial intelligence (AI). Netenyahu posted on X (formerly known as Twitter) about his plans to meet with the billionaire to discuss how they planned to use AI for the good of civilization. This meeting also comes at a time where Musk is facing accusations of rising anti-semitism on his social media platform. Al Jazeera
DHS Threat Report Highlights Ransomware Threats, Risks for 2024 Elections. Findings from the Homeland Threat Assessment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) underscore that ransomware attacks pose a major threat to the U.S. and are on track to reach near-record profits this year. The report noted that “ransomware attackers extorted at least $449.1 million globally during the first half of 2023 and are expected to have their second most profitable year.” An entire section of the DHS report was devoted to the increasing toll cyber and ransomware attacks are exacting on the nation’s hospitals, education systems, and businesses. From January 2020 to December 2022, ransomware attacks increased by 47 percent and are marked by increasing sophistication in tactics, including “intermittent encryption” where gangs can encrypt systems faster and better evade detection. In addition, threat actors are employing “multilevel extortion,” which involves the encryption and exfiltration of target data followed by threats to publicly release stolen data to pressure victims to pay ransoms. The DHS report also highlighted concerns about the 2024 election and the threat of nation-state attacks from Russia, China, and Iran, including misinformation and disrupting election-related networks and data at the state and federal level. In assessing ongoing and evolving threats, DHS warned that critical infrastructure continues to face distributed denial‑of‑service (DDoS), website defacement, and ransomware attacks. The report projected that “adversarial governments, most notably (China), are developing other AI technologies that could undermine U.S. cyber defenses, including generative AI programs that support malicious activity such as malware attacks.” The Record
White House Officials Tackling Mammoth Task of Harmonizing Cybersecurity Rules. The White House is immersed in the monumental task of trying to integrate the huge number of cybersecurity regulations and standards for compliance by industry and infrastructure operators. The outcome of the task, which is expected to take years, could dramatically reshape cyber policies for 16 critical infrastructure sectors. The first goal is to establish a framework for a standalone mandate that would create standards “reciprocity” for infrastructure providers. The practical meaning of that goal is that compliance with a set of standards in one sector would bring about compliance in another, thereby reducing compliance costs. Bringing multiple standards and policies into agreement could result in security enhancements in an environment in which cyber and ransomware attacks leave no systems untouched, with impacts felt in every industry, business, government, and social sector. The importance of the effort is reflected in the fact that harmonizing regulations is task 1.1.1 in the National Cybersecurity Strategy Implementation Plan. Nick Leiserson, assistant national cyber director for cyber policy and programs at the Office of the National Cyber Director (ONCD), explained that “what we’re trying to figure out right now is A: ‘Is this as big of a problem as we think it is?’ and B: ‘What are different models that might work?'” The issue of overwhelming numbers of requirements and standards has been described as “regulatory cacophony.” Munish Walther-Puri, vice president of cyber risk at Exiger and former director of cyber risk for New York City’s Cyber Command, said that companies faced with operating a critical infrastructure in an arena that spans jurisdictions are sometimes overwhelmed by the complexity of compliance. “They’re in dire need of a conductor,” he said. In the near term, the White House is focusing on common IT stacks that are found in multiple sectors. The White House assumes that different industries may be using similar equipment for entirely different applications. However, ONCD’s Leiserson said, organizations often have IT stacks, like Microsoft’s Azure Active Directory, in common on the business side. Leiserson noted that the administration’s approach to harmonization could change in response to its request for information, with responses due by October 31. CyberScoop
Chinese Ministry Issues Proposal for Metaverse Standards Working Group. China’s information technology ministry has announced its intention to form a working group to create standards for the metaverse, a sector in which China seeks to be a global leader. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a draft proposal for the working group, noting that metaverse standards is one of nine emerging technology fields in which China can set the pace for international standards. The MIIT announcement noted that multiple challenges face the metaverse industry, adding "it is urgent to promote healthy and orderly development of the metaverse industry through standardization and guidance." MIIT identified the lack of clear definitions as one of the shortcomings of the metaverse sector, a circumstance it said “allowed some capitalists and companies to drum up speculation in the market.” The MIIT described the metaverse as "an integrated innovation combining various cutting-edge technologies” and projected that the metaverse will spur many innovative business models, new business opportunities and growth for the digital economy. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:
Australia Boosting Military Surveillance Capabilities. Australia says it plans to spend 1.5 billion ($966 million) to upgrade its military surveillance capabilities. Australian Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said on Tuesday that the funds will be used to upgrade the country’s fleet of 14 Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft anti-submarine warfare, maritime strike, and intelligence capabilities. The funds will also go towards the purchase of a fourth MQ-4C Triton drone aircraft, which will be based in Australia’s Northern Territory, closest to Asia. The upgrades come after Australia released its Defense Strategic Review in April, which noted that the U.S. was no longer the “unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific” and that competition between the U.S. and China had the “potential for conflict.” The review also recommended that Australia’s northern bases become the focal point for deterring adversaries, and protecting trade routes and communications. Reuters Al Jazeera
Taiwan Says 27 Chinese Military Aircraft Enter Air Defense Identification Zone. Taiwan’s air defense ministry said on Tuesday that it detected 27 Chinese air force aircraft entering the island’s air defense identification zone in the past 24 hours. Most of the warplanes flew southwest of Taiwan. The reports came after the ministry said over 100 Chinese military aircraft and several naval vessels were deployed near the island between Sunday and Monday, which it called a “recent” high and “harassment.” Reuters
Chinese Loans to Africa Hit Two-Decade Low. Data from Boston University’s Global China Initiative showed Tuesday that Chinese sovereign lending in Africa fell below $1 billion last year, the lowest level in two decades. The decrease in lending comes as several African nations struggle with debt crises and China appears to be facing an economic downturn. Africa has been the focus of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to extend China’s geopolitical and economic influence through the development of global infrastructure. China provided a total of $170 billion to Africa from 2000 to 2022. However, lending has declined sharply since a 2016 peak. Although the COVID-19 pandemic coincides with the precipitous drop, researchers noted there were other contributing factors and that “a lot of that had to do with the level of risk exposure.” However, analysis found that despite the decline in loans, there is still continued investment with fewer loans over $500 million and more funds going to social and environmental projects. The data comes as Beijing is expected to host its third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation next month to mark the 10th anniversary of the initiative, with 90 countries expected to attend. Reuters
The data cut-off for this product was 8:30am ET.
Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief
